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Nikolova, Nina, Kalina Radeva, Leonid Todorov, and Simeon Matev. "Drought Dynamics and Drought Hazard Assessment in Southwest Bulgaria." Atmosphere 15, no. 8 (2024): 888. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos15080888.
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Awareness of the potential threat posed by drought necessitates the implementation of appropriate procedures to enable effective and systematic actions aimed at mitigating, or at least partially limiting, the impacts of drought events. This paper seeks to analyze the spatial and temporal changes of atmospheric drought in the period 1961–2020 and assesses drought hazards in southwest Bulgaria, which is a region susceptible to periodic water shortages. In this study, the standardized precipitation evaporation index (SPEI), accounting for both precipitation and temperature changes, was used to analyze drought characteristics. The analysis reveals significant temporal changes and spatial differences in drought patterns across southwest Bulgaria. The northeastern part of the region, including the Sofia district, exhibits the lowest risk of drought, while the central part of the region shows a tendency toward moderate and occasional low drought events. Some stations, particularly in the southern part of the region, consistently experienced more severe drought conditions (Blagoevgrad and Sandanski), as indicated by negative SPEI values in different time scales (3, 6, and 12 months). Results indicate an increased frequency of droughts during 1990–2020 compared to 1961–1990, which was driven by climate change and human activities. Across all stations and in both SPEI time scales, the period from the early to mid-1990s was characterized by significant droughts. The study of drought hazards using short-term and long-term SPEI analysis reveals different levels of drought risk and increased hazard from the northern to southern parts of the study area. The share of areas with a high drought hazard exceeds 40% of the territory in the areas with a transitional and continental-Mediterranean climate. Based on the results, the paper highlights the need to integrate drought risk assessments with regional planning to improve agricultural resilience and water resource management in response to anticipated droughts, especially in drought-prone areas such as southwest Bulgaria.
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Jedd, Theresa, Deborah Bathke, Duane Gill, et al. "Tracking Drought Perspectives: A Rural Case Study of Transformations Following an Invisible Hazard." Weather, Climate, and Society 10, no. 4 (2018): 653–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-17-0067.1.
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Abstract Rural towns are especially susceptible to the effects of drought because their economies are dependent on natural resources. However, they are also resilient in many ways to natural hazards because they are rich in civic engagement and social capital. Because of the diverse nature of drought’s impacts, understanding its complex dynamics and its effects requires a multidisciplinary approach. To study these dynamics, this research combines appreciative inquiry, the Community Capitals Framework, and a range of climatological monitoring data to assess the 2012–14 Great Plains drought’s effect on McCook, Nebraska. Community coping measures, such as water-use reduction and public health programs, were designed to address the immediate effects of heat and scant rainfall during the initial summer and the subsequent years. Residents generally reported the community was better prepared than in previous droughts, including the persistent multiyear early-2000s drought. However, the results highlight wide variation in community perspectives about the drought’s severity and impacts, as well as divergent experiences and coping responses. Despite these factors, we find evidence of the transformative potential of moving from drought coping to drought mitigation. We attribute the city’s resilience to the ability to draw upon prior experience with droughts, having a formal municipal plan, and strong human and social capital to coordinate individual knowledge and expertise across agencies. We suggest that droughts have served a catalytic function, prompting the community to transform land-use practices, water conservation planning, and built infrastructure in lasting ways.
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Nazarenko, Serhii, Diana Šarauskienė, Viktor Putrenko, and Jūratė Kriaučiūnienė. "Evaluating Hydrological Drought Risk in Lithuania." Water 15, no. 15 (2023): 2830. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w15152830.
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Hydrological drought poses a major global challenge, exacerbated by climate change and increasing water demand, leading to water scarcity, environmental degradation, and socioeconomic impacts. Thereby, there is a need for comprehensive methods to assess and predict hydrological droughts. The methodology part was based on the calculation of hydrological drought risk components—hazard and vulnerability—according to the equal weight scale of each variable. The spatial distribution of point values was performed by the inverse distance weighting interpolation method. To calculate indices, the spatial layer overlapping of variables was performed using the Raster Calculator tool. Statistical tools were used to estimate drought risk in river catchments. As a result, three main maps were prepared: The hydrological drought hazard index, the hydrological drought vulnerability index, and the hydrological drought risk. These maps highlight regional variations in drought hazards, vulnerability, and risk. Hazard and risk index values are higher in the northern part of Lithuania and lower in the south. The central region exhibits the highest percentage of areas at high and very high risk; the western region shows less risk due to a maritime climate; and the Southeastern region demonstrates the lowest susceptibility to hydrological drought due to physical-geographical factors.
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Zhao, Xiaowei, Tianzeng Yang, Hongbo Zhang, et al. "GTDI: a game-theory-based integrated drought index implying hazard-causing and hazard-bearing impact change." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 24, no. 10 (2024): 3479–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-24-3479-2024.
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Abstract. Developing an effective and reliable integrated drought index is crucial for tracking and identifying droughts. The study employs game theory to create a spatially variable weight drought index (game-theory-based drought index, GTDI) by combining two single-type indices: an agricultural drought index (standardized soil moisture index, SSMI), which implies drought hazard-bearing conditions, and a meteorological drought index (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, SPEI), which implies drought hazard-causing conditions. In addition, the entropy-theory-based drought index (ETDI) is introduced to incorporate a spatial comparison with GTDI to illustrate the rationality of gaming weight integration, as both entropy theory and game theory belong to linear combination methods in the development of the integrated drought index and entropy theory has been applied in related research. Leaf area index (LAI) data are employed to confirm the reliability of GTDI in identifying drought by comparing it with SPEI, SSMI, and ETDI. Furthermore, a comparative analysis is conducted on the temporal trajectories and spatial evolution of the GTDI-identified drought to discuss GTDI's level of advancement in monitoring changes in hazard-causing and hazard-bearing impacts. The results show that GTDI has a very high correlation with single-type drought indices (SPEI and SSMI), and its gaming weight integration is more logical and trustworthy than that of ETDI. As a result, it outperforms ETDI, SPEI, and SSMI in recognizing drought spatiotemporally and is projected to replace single-type drought indices to provide a more accurate picture of actual drought. Additionally, GTDI exhibits the gaming feature, indicating a distinct benefit in monitoring changes in hazard-causing and hazard-bearing impacts. The case studies show that drought events in the Wei River basin are dominated by a lack of precipitation. The hazard-causing index, SPEI, dominates the early stages of a drought event, whereas the hazard-bearing index, SSMI, dominates the later stages. This study surely serves as a helpful reference for the development of integrated drought indices as well as regional drought prevention and monitoring.
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Hasan, Hasrul Hazman, Siti Fatin Mohd Razali, Nur Shazwani Muhammad, and Asmadi Ahmad. "Modified Hydrological Drought Risk Assessment Based on Spatial and Temporal Approaches." Sustainability 14, no. 10 (2022): 6337. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14106337.
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This study was conducted using a modified drought risk assessment in which hydrological data were processed to assess the hazards and risk of hydrological drought in Peninsular Malaysia. Although drought vulnerability and risk assessment are critical components of the drought phenomenon, the lack of a comprehensive integrated drought risk assessment in Malaysia has led to increased socio-economic impacts. The Hydrological Drought Risk Index (HDRI) illustrates the relative importance of hazard and vulnerability assessments in drought risk management for Peninsular Malaysia using the Streamflow Drought Index (SDI). This study presents an integrated drought characteristics-based risk assessment framework to improve hydrological drought risk assessment. The hydrological drought risk assessment was conducted by combining physical hazard and socioeconomic variables across the region. The periods of 1998–1999 and 2017–2018 mark the most critical hydrological droughts. The results also show that the trend of hydrological drought in river basins is towards dry conditions with no change in the foreseeable future. This study proposes a theoretical framework for effective drought risk management that can be used by the government and its stakeholders for sustainable water resource management.
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Mohamed, Abduselam Abdulahi, Bishar Ahmed, and Karthika Palanisamy. "Perceptional Differences on Drought Occurrence and Resilience Building Mechanisms in Kebri Dehar District, Somali Region of Ethiopia." International Journal of Professional Business Review 8, no. 7 (2023): e02360. http://dx.doi.org/10.26668/businessreview/2023.v8i7.2360.
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Purpose: The aim of the research was to analyze the drought hazard occurrence, perceptional differences among residents to drought hazard occurrence, and explore the resilience mechanisms at household, community level, and institutional level to recover from drought hazards Theoretical framework: The research dealt with the theoretical aspects of how hazards occurrence can be observed through the perceptional differences of the residents in a particular area. Adoption of short- and long-term drought resilience mechanisms is inevitable to recover from drought hazards. Design/methodology/approach: This study is based on exploratory research design. Four ‘kebeles’ were selected considering drought classifications and 200 respondents were chosen. Descriptive statistics, Timeline Approach and ANOVA were used to analyze the data collected. Findings: Majority of respondents know about drought hazard occurrence, causes at their level, and experienced the effects of drought. There are significant perceptional differences among respondents across educational and marital status, and monthly income. Research, Practical & Social implications: Household and community participation is essential for adopting drought resilience mechanisms with the support of governmental and non-governmental agencies. Originality/value: This Study focused on drought hazard occurrence and resilience mechanisms at household and community level to recover drought hazards. The originality / value of the study lies with perceptional differences on drought hazards occurrence using the Timeline approach and ANOVA. The findings of this study would contribute to design and implement effective drought resilience mechanisms.
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Tijdeman, Erik, Veit Blauhut, Michael Stoelzle, Lucas Menzel, and Kerstin Stahl. "Different drought types and the spatial variability in their hazard, impact, and propagation characteristics." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 22, no. 6 (2022): 2099–116. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2099-2022.
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Abstract. Droughts often have a severe impact on the environment, society, and the economy. The variables and scales that are relevant to understand the impact of drought motivated this study, which compared hazard and propagation characteristics, as well as impacts, of major droughts between 1990 and 2019 in southwestern Germany. We bring together high-resolution datasets of air temperature, precipitation, soil moisture simulations, and streamflow and groundwater level observations, as well as text-based information on drought impacts. Various drought characteristics were derived from the hydrometeorological and drought impact time series and compared across variables and spatial scales. Results revealed different drought types sharing similar hazard and impact characteristics. The most severe drought type identified is an intense multi-seasonal drought type peaking in summer, i.e., the events in 2003, 2015, and 2018. This drought type appeared in all domains of the hydrological cycle and coincided with high air temperatures, causing a high number of and variability in drought impacts. The regional average drought signals of this drought type exhibit typical drought propagation characteristics such as a time lag between meteorological and hydrological drought, whereas propagation characteristics of local drought signals are variable in space. This spatial variability in drought hazard increased when droughts propagated through the hydrological cycle, causing distinct differences among variables, as well as regional average and local drought information. Accordingly, single variable or regional average drought information is not sufficient to fully explain the variety of drought impacts that occurred, supporting the conclusion that in regions as diverse as the case study presented here, large-scale drought monitoring needs to be complemented by local drought information to assess the multifaceted impact of drought.
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Araujo Bonjean, Catherine, Abdoulaye Sy, and Marie-Eliette Dury. "Spatially Consistent Drought Hazard Modeling Approach Applied to West Africa." Water 15, no. 16 (2023): 2935. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w15162935.
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A critical stage in drought risk assessment is the measurement of drought hazard, the probability of occurrence of a potentially damaging event. The standard approach to assess drought hazard is based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and a drought intensity classification established according to a fixed set of SPI values. We show that this method does not allow for the assessment of region-specific hazards, and we propose an alternative method based on the extreme value theory. We model precipitation using an extreme value mixture model, with a normal distribution for the bulk, and a generalized Pareto distribution for the upper and lower tails. The model estimation allows us to identify the threshold value below which precipitation can be qualified as extreme. The quantile function is used to measure the intensity of each category of droughts and calculate the drought hazard index (DHI). By construction, the DHI value varies according to the specific characteristics of the left tail of the precipitation distribution. To test the relevance of our approach, we estimate the DHI over a gridded set of rainfall data covering West Africa, a large and climatically heterogeneous region. The results show that our mixture model fits the data better than the model used for SPI calculation. In particular, our model performs better to identify extreme precipitation in the left tail of the distribution. The DHI map highlights clusters of high drought hazard located in the central part of the region under study.
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Yosa, I., R. Suwarman, and M. Syahputra. "Spatial Analysis of Meteorological Drought in Southeast Asia and Australia Region." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1472, no. 1 (2025): 012009. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1472/1/012009.
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Abstract Southeast Asia and Australia have historically suffered significant losses due to droughts. Understanding these droughts can serve as a foundation for mitigation strategies aimed at reducing the damages they cause. Meteorological drought indices, such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), offer a valuable method for quantifying drought severity and frequency. This study employs monthly precipitation data from GPM_3IMERGM (0.1° x 0.1°) spanning 2000-2021 to calculate SPI for Southeast Asia and Australia across different time scales: 3 months (SPI-3), 6 months (SPI-6), and 12 months (SPI-12). These indices measure drought frequency and intensity, providing parameters for the multiscale Drought Hazard Index (DHI) to identify areas at risk during specific periods. Our analysis indicates that as drought periods lengthen, DHI intensity in each grid generally decreases. A distinct DHI pattern emerges in the tropical rainforest climate zone (Af) in Southeast Asia, while the Mediterranean climate (Csb) in southwestern and southeastern Australia exhibits the largest proportion of extreme hazard across all drought periods. Overall, the 3-month period presents the highest drought hazard in both Southeast Asia and Australia.
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Alahacoon, Niranga, Mahesh Edirisinghe, and Manjula Ranagalage. "Satellite-Based Meteorological and Agricultural Drought Monitoring for Agricultural Sustainability in Sri Lanka." Sustainability 13, no. 6 (2021): 3427. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13063427.
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For Sri Lanka, as an agricultural country, a methodical drought monitoring mechanism, including spatial and temporal variations, may significantly contribute to its agricultural sustainability. Investigating long-term meteorological and agricultural drought occurrences in Sri Lanka and assessing drought hazard at the district level are the main objectives of the study. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI), and Vegetation Health Index (VHI) were used as drought indicators to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of agriculture and meteorological droughts. Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) data from 1989 to 2019 was used to calculate SPI and RAI. MOD13A1 and MOD11A2 data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) from 2001 to 2019, were used to generate the Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) and Temperature Condition Index (TCI). Agricultural drought monitoring was done using VHI and generated using the spatial integration of VCI and TCI. Thus, various spatial data analysis techniques were extensively employed for vector and raster data integration and analysis. A methodology has been developed for the drought declaration of the country using the VHI-derived drought area percentage. Accordingly, for a particular year, if the country-wide annual extreme and severe drought area percentage based on VHI drought classes is ≥30%, it can be declared as a drought year. Moreover, administrative districts of Sri Lanka were classified into four hazard classes, No drought, Low drought, Moderate drought, and High drought, using the natural-beak classification scheme for both agricultural and meteorological droughts. The findings of this study can be used effectively by the relevant decision-makers for drought risk management (DRM), resilience, sustainable agriculture, and policymaking.
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Caloiero, Tommaso. "Hydrological Hazard: Analysis and Prevention." Geosciences 8, no. 11 (2018): 389. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/geosciences8110389.
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As a result of the considerable impacts of hydrological hazard on water resources, on natural environments and human activities, as well as on human health and safety, climate variability and climate change have become key issues for the research community. In fact, a warmer climate, with its heightened climate variability, will increase the risk of hydrological extreme phenomena, such as droughts and floods. The Special Issue “Hydrological Hazard: Analysis and Prevention” presents a collection of scientific contributions that provides a sample of the state-of-the-art and forefront research in this field. In particular, innovative modelling methods for flood hazards, regional flood and drought analysis, and the use of satellite and climate data for drought analysis were the main topics and practice targets that the papers published in this Special Issue aimed to address.
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Vicente Serrano, Sergio. "The evolution of climatic drought studies in Spain over the last few decades." Geographicalia, no. 73 (July 29, 2021): 7–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.26754/ojs_geoph/geoph.2021734640.
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This study reviews the evolution of scientific research on climatic droughts in Spain over the last few decades. The complexity of this natural hazard and the wide incidence of droughts in Spain have led to great interest from scientists in Spain, and generated a significant amount of scientific work on the topic over the last two decades. Climatic drought studies have evolved from predominantly descriptive studies up to the 1990s to highly diverse research topics, which include the development of indices, tools and datasets, the study of drought hazard probability, the analysis of drought variability and trends, including research on long term drought reconstructions and analysis with instrumental data, an assessment of drought mechanisms and drivers, and drought modeling, including how models represent droughts, and applying models to drought forecasting and future projections. The study of climatic droughts in Spain is highly internationalized, since most of the current scientific studies are published in high-impact international journals and, nowadays, do not only cover Spain, but also other world regions as well as continental and global studies.
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Baran-Gurgul, Katarzyna. "The spatial and temporal variability of hydrological drought in the Polish Carpathians." Journal of Hydrology and Hydromechanics 70, no. 2 (2022): 156–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/johh-2022-0007.
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Abstract The aim of the study was to evaluate the climate and geographic factors controlling the hydrological drought of the rivers located in the Upper Vistula catchment in the Polish Carpathians. Drought was identified based on the daily flow (based on water stage measered once a day at 6 UTC) series dating from between 1975 and 2019 at 49 gauging cross-sections. Four physico-geographical regions were identified in the Polish Carpathians and spatial variabilities of the basic drought characteristics were developed within these regions. Such spatial distributions were treated as maps indicating drought hazard areas in the region. In addition, an analysis was undertaken to study the seasonality of the start and end times of the drought (all in the multi-annual period), the longest duration of droughts, the droughts of the highest volume in multi-annual period, as well as the number of drought days. Multi-annual variability of the number of drought days was also analysed. The results suggest that droughts in the Polish Carpathians are events characteristic of summer and autumn, whereas in the Tatra Mountains and the Podhale region - of autumn and winter. The greatest hazard of a prolonged and high-volume drought occurs in the Podhale region and the Tatra Mountains, while the lowest hazard is observed in the Bieszczady Mountains and the eastern part of the studied area.
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Sahana, Venkataswamy, and Arpita Mondal. "Evolution of multivariate drought hazard, vulnerability and risk in India under climate change." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 23, no. 2 (2023): 623–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-23-623-2023.
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Abstract. Changes in climate and socio-economic conditions pose a major threat to water security, particularly in the densely populated, agriculture-dependent and rapidly developing country of India. Therefore, for cogent mitigation and adaptation planning, it is important to assess the future evolution of drought hazard, vulnerability and risk. Earlier studies have demonstrated projected drought risk over India on the basis of frequency analysis and/or hazard assessment alone. This study investigates and evaluates the change in projected drought risk under future climatic and socio-economic conditions by combining drought hazard and vulnerability projections at a country-wide scale. A multivariate standardized drought index (MSDI) accounting for concurrent deficits in precipitation and soil moisture is chosen to quantify droughts. Drought vulnerability assessment is carried out combining exposure, adaptive capacity and sensitivity indicators, using a robust multi-criteria decision-making method called the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). In the worst-case scenario for drought hazard (RCP2.6-Far future), there is a projected decrease in the area under high or very high drought hazard classes in the country by approximately 7 %. Further, the worst-case scenario for drought vulnerability (RCP6.0-SSP2-Near future) shows a 33 % rise in the areal extent of high or very high drought vulnerability classes. The western Uttar Pradesh, Haryana and western Rajasthan regions are found to be high risk under all scenarios. Bivariate choropleth analysis shows that the projected drought risk is majorly driven by changes in drought vulnerability attributable to societal developments rather than changes in drought hazard resulting from climatic conditions. The present study can aid policy makers, administrators and drought managers in developing decision support systems for efficient drought management.
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Omondi, Julius Okoth, Isaac Chitedze, and Judith Kumatso. "CHARACTERIZATION, FORECASTING AND ASSESSMENT OF AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT IMPACTS IN THE SUDANO-SAHELIAN CLIMATE OF GOURMA PROVINCE IN BURKINA FASO." Environment & Ecosystem Science 5, no. 1 (2020): 01–09. http://dx.doi.org/10.26480/ees.01.2021.01.09.
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Natural hazards such as agricultural droughts impact negatively on crop yields and economic activities. Characterization of agricultural droughts provides precise and accurate information for decision making processes during agricultural drought events. Planning and responding to the hazards by government, and non-governmental organizations in the Sudano-Sahelian belt has been limited in the past due to knowledge gap on the nature and impact of the hazard. This study seeks to characterize historical agricultural droughts, assess their impact on crop yields and people’s susceptibility to undernourishment and through forecasting, unravel what the future holds. Annual effective reconnaissance drought index values are computed using mean monthly potential evapotranspiration and effective precipitation data. To assess the impact of agricultural drought, the index’s values are compared to crop yields and prevalence to undernourishment data. Results show that agricultural drought events of 1983 and 2008 are mild and ephemeral while the 1999 – 2006 event is severe and protracted. While there is 26% chance of materialization of an agricultural drought in Gourma, the chance of being ephemeral and of moderate category is the highest (8%). It has been determined that an ephemeral and moderate agricultural drought would trigger below average yields for maize, sorghum and millet. Mild, moderate and severe events increase prevalence to undernourishment by 2.9 %, 4.3 % and 5.8 % respectively. From 2020 to 2030, a continued materialization of agricultural droughts is expected
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VERMA, KARAN, PRATIBHA, RAJJU PRIYA SONI, PRAVEEN KUMAR, DIMPLE CHAUHAN, and ANU ALPHONSA AUGUSTINE. "DROUGHT; INFLUENCE OF DROUGHT IN AGRICULTURE AND MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR DROUGHT-A REVIEW." Asian Journal of Microbiology, Biotechnology & Environmental Sciences 25, no. 04 (2023): 638–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.53550/ajmbes.2023.v25i04.005.
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Drought is one of the major stress factors affecting the growth and development of plants. In this context, drought-related losses of crop plant productivity impede sustainable agriculture all over the world. In general, plants respond to water deficits by multiple physiological and metabolic adaptations at the molecular, cellular, and organism levels. Drought can have a serious impact on health, agriculture, economies, energy and the environment. An estimated 55 million people globally are affected by droughts every year, and they are the most serious hazard to livestock and crops in nearly every part of the world. Drought threatens people’s livelihoods, increases the risk of disease and death, and fuels mass migration. Water scarcity impacts 40% of the world’s population and as many as 700 million people are at-risk of being displaced as a result of drought by 2030. Rising temperatures caused by climate change are making already dry regions drier and wet regions wetter. In dry regions, this means that when temperatures rises, water evaporates more quickly, and thus increases the risk of drought or prolongs periods of drought. Between 80-90% of all documented disasters from natural hazards during the past 10 years have resulted from floods, droughts, tropical cyclones, heat waves and severe storms.
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Swearingen, Will D. "Drought Hazard in Morocco." Geographical Review 82, no. 4 (1992): 401. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/215198.
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Li, Kaiwei, Chunyi Wang, Guangzhi Rong, et al. "Dynamic Evaluation of Agricultural Drought Hazard in Northeast China Based on Coupled Multi-Source Data." Remote Sensing 15, no. 1 (2022): 57. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs15010057.
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As the climate warms, the impact of drought on plants has increased. We aimed to construct a comprehensive drought index (CDI), coupling soil-vegetation-atmosphere drought and heat conditions based on multi-source information, and to combine it with static and dynamic drought hazard evaluation models to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of agricultural drought disasters and hazards during the growing season (May to September) in Northeast China (NEC). The results demonstrated that the CDI could combine the benefits of meteorology (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, SPEI), vegetation (vegetation health index, VHI), and soil (standardized soil moisture condition index, SMCI) indices. This was performed using a relative weighting method based on the remote sensing data of solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF) to determine the weights of SPEI, VHI, and SMCI. The CDI for drought monitoring has the advantages of broad spatial range, long time range, and high accuracy, and can effectively reflect agricultural drought; the growing season in NEC showed a trend of becoming drier during 1982–2020. However, the trends of the drought index, the impact range of drought events, and the hazard of agricultural drought all turned around 2000. The drought hazard was highly significant (p < 0.001) and decreased from 2000 to 2020. The frequency of drought disasters was the highest, and the hazard was the greatest in May. The best level of climatic yield anomalies in maize were explained by drought hazard in August (R2 = 0.28). In the center and western portions of the study area, farmland and grassland areas were where higher levels of hazard were most commonly seen. The dynamic hazard index is significantly correlated with climatic yield anomalies and can reflect the actual impact of drought on crop yield. The study results serve as a scientific foundation for drought risk assessment and management, agricultural planning, and the formulation of drought adaptation policies, as well as for ensuring food security in China.
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Tao, Yi, Erhao Meng, and Qiang Huang. "Spatiotemporal Changes and Hazard Assessment of Hydrological Drought in China Using Big Data." Water 16, no. 1 (2023): 106. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w16010106.
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The intensification of the regional water cycle resulting from climate change, coupled with the influence of human activities, has brought about alterations in the frequency, scale, and intensity of droughts. In this study, based on hydrological big data and the standardized runoff drought index (SRI), the multi-scale spatiotemporal evolution of hydrological drought in China from 1948 to 2014 was analyzed using the run-length theory and gravity center model. Meanwhile, the hydrological drought hazard index was constructed to analyze the distribution of the hazard levels of drought in China. The results showed that, during 1948~2014, there was an opposite spatial distribution between the average intensity and the average coverage–duration–frequency of drought in the Yellow River Basin, Haihe River Basin and southeastern river basins. The drought situation in most river basins in China has shown an aggravating trend, among which the southeastern river basins, Haihe River Basin, Songliao River Basin and Pearl River Basin have generally shown an aggravating trend. The drought situation in China was severe in the 1950s and 1960s, gradually reduced in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, and the drought situation was the mildest in the 1990s. After entering the 21st century, the drought situation began to worsen sharply. Meanwhile, from 1948 to 2014, the hazard level of drought generally presented a pattern of high in the west and north, and low in the east and south. The hazard levels of drought in the northwest and northeast were generally higher, and those in the southwest and southeast regions were generally lower. In general, the hazard levels of drought were relatively high in most areas of China.
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Rajput, Preeti, Manish Kumar Sinha, Mukesh Kumar Verma, and Ishtiyaq Ahmad. "Drought Hazard Assessment and Mapping in Upper Seonath Sub-Basin Using GIS." International Journal of Emerging Technology and Advanced Engineering 4, no. 10 (2014): 210–18. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4670954.
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Drought is a natural anomaly experienced when circulation pattern get blocked in one phase, or push outside their normal residence time of variation. The assessment of drought impact on agricultural land in Upper Seonath Sub-basin is essential for making mitigation plan to reduce the impact of drought. The study has been conducted in Upper Seonath sub basin of Chhattisgarh State, having total geo-graphical area of 7292 sq.km out of which 62.16% is occu-pied by agricultural land. Agricultural droughts can occur due to number of reasons, including low precipitation, the timing of water availability or decreased access to water supplies. The Standardized precipitation index is probability based, designed as spatially invariant indicator of drought that recognizes the importance of time scales in the analysis of water availability and water use (Nathaniel B. Gutman, 1999). A drought assessment model based on SPI in GIS environment is used in the present study. The study carried out for 22 stations dataset in 31-year time scale. The aim of the present study is the determination of natural anomaly in a time period of 1983–2013 by using SPI. Drought hazard mapping is done for 31-year time period based on panoramic station points data using geo-statistical analysis of ArcGIS. Zonal statistics derivation of drought hazard map is done based on implementation borders of blocks.
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Naumann, Gustavo, Walter Vargas, Paulo Barbosa, Veit Blauhut, Jonathan Spinoni, and Jürgen Vogt. "Dynamics of Socioeconomic Exposure, Vulnerability and Impacts of Recent Droughts in Argentina." Geosciences 9, no. 1 (2019): 39. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9010039.
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During the last 20 years, Argentina experienced several extreme and widespread droughts in many different regions, including the core cropland areas. The most devastating recent events were recorded in the years 2006, 2009 and 2011. Reported impacts of the main events induced losses of more than 4 billion U.S. dollars and more than 1 million persons were reported to be directly or indirectly affected. In this paper, we analyse the drought risk in Argentina, taking into account recent information on drought hazard, exposure and vulnerability. Accordingly, we identified the most severe droughts in Argentina during the 2000–2015 period using a combination of drought hazard indicators and exposure layers. Three main events were identified: (1) during spring 2006 droughts peaked in the northeast of Argentina, (2) in 2009 precipitation deficits indicated a drought epicenter in the central Argentinian plains, and (3) in 2011 the northern Patagonia region experienced a combination of natural disasters due to severe drought conditions and a devastating volcanic eruption. Furthermore, we analysed the dynamics of drought exposure for the population and the main economic sectors affected by municipality, i.e., agriculture and livestock production. Assets exposed to droughts have been identified with several records of drought impacts and declarations of farming emergencies. We show that by combining exposure and vulnerability with drought intensity it is feasible to detect the likelihood of regional impacts in different sectors.
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Brunner, Manuela I. "Reservoir regulation affects droughts and floods at local and regional scales." Environmental Research Letters 16, no. 12 (2021): 124016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac36f6.
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Abstract Hydrological extremes can be particularly impactful in catchments with high human presence where they are modulated by human intervention such as reservoir regulation. Still, we know little about how reservoir operation affects droughts and floods, particularly at a regional scale. Here, I present a large data set of natural and regulated catchment pairs in the United States and assess how reservoir regulation affects local and regional drought and flood characteristics. My results show that (1) reservoir regulation affects drought and flood hazard at a local scale by reducing severity (i.e. intensity/magnitude and deficit/volume) but increasing duration; (2) regulation affects regional hazard by reducing spatial flood connectedness (i.e. number of catchments a catchment co-experiences flood events with) in winter and by increasing spatial drought connectedness in summer; (3) the local alleviation effect is only weakly affected by reservoir purpose for both droughts and floods. I conclude that both local and regional flood and drought characteristics are substantially modulated by reservoir regulation, an aspect that should neither be neglected in hazard nor climate impact assessments.
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Collet, Lila, Shaun Harrigan, Christel Prudhomme, Giuseppe Formetta, and Lindsay Beevers. "Future hot-spots for hydro-hazards in Great Britain: a probabilistic assessment." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 22, no. 10 (2018): 5387–401. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-22-5387-2018.
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Abstract. In an increasing hydro-climatic risk context as a result of climate change, this work aims to identify future hydro-hazard hot-spots as a result of climate change across Great Britain. First, flood and drought hazards were defined and selected in a consistent and parallel approach with a threshold method. Then, a nation-wide systematic and robust statistical framework was developed to quantify changes in frequency, magnitude, and duration, and assess time of year for both droughts and floods, and the uncertainty associated with climate model projections. This approach was applied to a spatially coherent statistical database of daily river flows (Future Flows Hydrology) across Great Britain to assess changes between the baseline (1961–1990) and the 2080s (2069–2098). The results showed that hydro-hazard hot-spots are likely to develop along the western coast of England and Wales and across north-eastern Scotland, mainly during the winter (floods) and autumn (droughts) seasons, with a higher increase in drought hazard in terms of magnitude and duration. These results suggest a need for adapting water management policies in light of climate change impact, not only on the magnitude, but also on the timing of hydro-hazard events, and future policy should account for both extremes together, alongside their potential future evolution.
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Tokarczyk, Tamara, and Wiwiana Szalińska. "The Operational Drought Hazard Assessment Scheme – Performance and Preliminary Results." Archives of Environmental Protection 39, no. 3 (2013): 61–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/aep-2013-0028.
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Abstract Predicted climate change may have negative impact on many environmental components including vegetation by increase of evapotranspiration and reduction of available water resources. Moreover, a growing global population and extensive use of water for irrigation and industry result in increasing demand for water. Facing these threats, quantitative and qualitative protection of water resources requires development of tools for drought assessment and prediction to support effective decision making and mitigate the impacts of droughts. Therefore, the Institute of Meteorology and Water Management, National Research Institute has developed and implemented a set of tools for the operational drought hazard assessment. The developed tools cover drought indices estimation, assessment of sensitivity to it formation and drought hazard prediction. They are streamlined into an operational scheme combined with data assimilation routines and products generation procedures. A drought hazard assessment scheme was designed to be implemented into the platform of a hydrological system supporting the operational work of hydrological forecast offices. The scheme was launched to run operationally for the selected catchments of the Odra River and the Wisla River basins. The crucial resulting products are presented on the website operated by IMWM-NRI: POSUCH@ (Operational System for Providing Drought Prediction and Characteristics) (http://posucha.imgw.pl/). The paper presents the scheme and preliminary results obtained for the drought event which began in August 2011.
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Ndhlovu, Emmanuel, and Kaitano Dube. "Droughts, Displacements, and Human Implications: A Southern Africa Perspective." Futurity of Social Sciences 2, no. 4 (2024): 154–78. https://doi.org/10.57125/fs.2024.12.20.09.
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Natural hazards have existed since time immemorial worldwide. Rapid climate changes continue to exacerbate the recurrences of these natural hazards, thus generating enormous socio-economic and environmental challenges. Southern Africa is among the global regions most affected by natural hazards. Existing literature on natural hazards mainly focuses on floods, storms, and earthquakes, while hazards such as drought have not attracted the same level of attention. This has both policy and practical implications. This study closes this gap. The study uses a quantitative content analysis approach and draws from the quantitative data on drought and displacement in Africa collected by the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre. It also uses standard rainfall indices (SPIs) to explore how rainfall deviations possibly impact internal displacement. The objective is to (i) explore the drought-displacement nexus in Southern Africa, (ii) investigate the implications of droughts and displacements, and (iii) propose policy and practical interventions. An analysis of the SPI index for four Southern African countries selected purposefully. The article shows that drought is the major natural hazard that displaces people in the selected countries. Such human displacement results in several challenges in source regions and receiving regions. In this regard, intervention measures to deal with droughts must adopt a holistic approach to address the resultant vulnerabilities and build future resilience. The study recommends adopting and implementing social policy-based interventions in dealing with the socio-economic impacts of drought displacement in Africa.
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Yang, Guifang, and Changhong Yao. "Drought Hazards and Hydrological Variations in the South Hebei Plain of China over the Past 500 Years." Atmosphere 15, no. 10 (2024): 1243. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos15101243.
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High-frequency drought hazards have presented persistent challenges for environmental management and sustainable development in the South Hebei Plain, China. In this paper, the assessment of meteorological droughts in the South Hebei Plain was conducted using a multifaceted approach to ensure a comprehensive analysis. Our results demonstrated that distinct timescale cycles, ranging from centennial–semicentennial to interdecadal variations, can be identified over the past few centuries. These cycles aligned with patterns observed in the middle Yangtze basin and corresponded to regional climatic conditions. The drought cycles in the South Hebei Plain showed significant correlations with variations in the monsoon climate, sunspot activity, global changes, and human disturbances. Changes in the frequency, duration, and intensity of droughts have notably impacted hydrological variations. Extreme droughts, in particular, have heightened concerns about their effects on river systems, potentially increasing the risk of channel migration. This study enhanced our understanding of meteorological hazard patterns in the South Hebei Plain and provided valuable insights into different stages of drought management. It thus can offer lessons for improving drought preparedness and resilience and for formulating adaptive measures to mitigate future droughts and promote regional sustainability.
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Miss., Ritika Uikey. "Management Of Drought And Its Preparedness." International Journal of Advance and Applied Research 10, no. 4 (2023): 71–75. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7791001.
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Drought can be defined as a natural disaster which takes place due to scarcity of water whether it is groundwater, surface water, or less precipitation. Drought can last for years or even for a short period of time depending upon the temperature of the particular area where drought has occurred. As the temperature rises, evaporation of water increases due to which drought occurs. However, droughts have become more extreme and more unpredictable due to climate change. Drought threatens people’s livelihood, increases the risk of diseases, deaths and fuels mass migration. Water scarcity impacts 40% of the world’s population and as many as 700 million people are at risk of being displaced as a result of drought by 2030. Droughts are complex and multifaceted phenomena but still least understood of all natural hazards, affecting more people than any other hazard. Drought impacts are long lasting at times of lingering for many years. It occurs with varying frequency in all regions of the globe i.e., high as well as in low rainfall areas: in all types of economic systems, socialist and capitalist: and in developed and less developed countries alike. Droughts differ from one another in three essential characteristics: intensity, duration and spatial coverage. Like, other environmental phenomena, it cannot be understood solely through scientific investigation. Instead, it is constituted though the interactions between science, nature and society.
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Ribeiro, Andreia F. S., Ana Russo, Célia M. Gouveia, Patrícia Páscoa, and Carlos A. L. Pires. "Probabilistic modelling of the dependence between rainfed crops and drought hazard." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 19, no. 12 (2019): 2795–809. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2795-2019.
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Abstract. Extreme weather events, such as droughts, have been increasingly affecting the agricultural sector, causing several socio-economic consequences. The growing economy requires improved assessments of drought-related impacts in agriculture, particularly under a climate that is getting drier and warmer. This work proposes a probabilistic model that is intended to contribute to the agricultural drought risk management in rainfed cropping systems. Our methodology is based on a bivariate copula approach using elliptical and Archimedean copulas, the application of which is quite recent in agrometeorological studies. In this work we use copulas to model joint probability distributions describing the amount of dependence between drought conditions and crop yield anomalies. Afterwards, we use the established copula models to simulate pairs of yield anomalies and drought hazard, preserving their dependence structure to further estimate the probability of crop loss. In the first step, we analyse the probability of crop loss without distinguishing the class of drought, and in the second step we compare the probability of crop loss under drought and non-drought conditions. The results indicate that, in general, Archimedean copulas provide the best statistical fits of the joint probability distributions, suggesting a dependence among extreme values of rainfed cereal yield anomalies and drought indicators. Moreover, the estimated conditional probabilities suggest that when drought conditions are below moderate thresholds, the risk of crop loss increases between 32.53 % (cluster 1) and 32.6 % (cluster 2) in the case of wheat and between 31.63 % (cluster 2) and 55.55 % (cluster 2) in the case of barley. From an operational point of view, the results aim to contribute to the decision-making process in agricultural practices.
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Dina, Rukaia-E.-Amin, and Abu Reza Md Towfiqul Islam. "Assessment of drought disaster risk in Boro rice cultivated areas of northwestern Bangladesh." European Journal of Geosciences 2, no. 1 (2020): 19–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.34154/2020-ejgs-0201-19-29/euraass.
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Drought risk has become a major threat for sustaining food security in Bangladesh; the particularly northwestern region of Bangladesh. The objective of the study is to assess drought disaster risk on Boro paddy cultivated areas of northwestern Bangladesh using drought disaster risk index (DDRI) model. The sensitivity of Boro paddy to droughts during crop-growing seasons and irrigation recoverability were employed to reflect vulnerability condition. Moreover, the threshold level of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was applied to evaluate the drought hazard on Boro paddy cultivated areas in the northwestern region of Bangladesh. The probability density function (PDF) was used to show the threshold level of drought hazard. The results show that drought hazard is comparatively severe in Ishardi area compared to other northwestern regions of Bangladesh. The drought disaster risk is higher in Ishardi and Rajshahi areas than Rangpur and Dinajpur areas. Although Ishardi area is more prone to high drought risk, at the same time, the recoverability rate is also quicker than any other areas. The relationship between Boro rice yield rates and drought disaster risk is insignificant. The average Boro yield rates during the period of 1976 to 2016 are 19% for Ishardi and Rajshahi areas, 20% for Rangpur and Dinajpur areas and 21% for Bogra respectively according to the total irrigation area. The outcomes of the study can aid to adopt drought condition under changing the climate and also provide guidance for future drought mitigation in the northwest region of Bangladesh.
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São José, Rafael Vinicius De, Priscila Pereira Coltri, Roberto Greco, Ivonice Sena de Souza, and Ana Paula De Souza. "Hazard (seca) no semiárido da Bahia: Vulnerabilidades e Riscos climáticos." Revista Brasileira de Geografia Física 15, no. 4 (2022): 1978. http://dx.doi.org/10.26848/rbgf.v15.4.p1978-1993.
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A seca é o principal fenômeno climático que ocorre no semiárido brasileiro. Nesta região, a constante ocorrência de eventos de seca atrelada aos inúmeros problemas sociais, acumulados ao longo da história desta região, resulta em riscos climáticos, sobretudo, para a produção agrícola. Os graves impactos econômicos e sociais enfrentados pela população do Semiárido, relacionados aos eventos de estiagens e secas, colocaram em destaque a importância do avanço de estudos sobre risco da seca à atividade agrícola na região. Nesse contexto, este estudo objetivou avaliar a distribuição espacial do risco climático referente à seca para a atividade agrícola nas mesorregiões Vale São Franciscano e Centro-Norte. Para a representação do risco climático, analisou-se o perigo climático (representado por categorias de seca) e a vulnerabilidade. As variáveis que compuseram a vulnerabilidade local foram: índice de manejo agrícola, índice de Firjan de Desenvolvimento Municipal (IFDM) e índice ambiental. Observaram-se tendências de diminuição das chuvas locais e altas condições de vulnerabilidades dos agricultores da região, de modo geral. Assim sendo, constatou-se que não há condição de risco baixo para os municípios analisados, independente da intensidade da seca. Conclui-se, portanto, que a seca, enquanto um evento de múltiplas proporções, tem seu risco agravado a depender das condições de vulnerabilidades locais.Palavras-chave: estiagem, perigo, vulnerabilidade. Hazard (drought) in the semi-arid region of Bahia: Climate Vulnerabilities and Risks ABSTRACTDrought is the main climatic phenomenon that occurs in the Brazilian semiarid region. In this region, the constant occurrence of drought events linked to numerous social problems, accumulated throughout the history of this region, results in climatic risks, especially for agricultural production. The serious economic and social impacts faced by the population of the semiarid region, related to the events of droughts and droughts, highlighted the importance of advancing studies on the risk of drought to agricultural activity in the region. In this context, this study aimed to evaluate the spatial distribution of climate risk related to drought for agricultural activity in the Vale São Franciscano and Centro-Norte regions. For the representation of climate risk, climate hazard (represented by drought categories) and vulnerability were analyzed. The variables that made up the local vulnerability were: agricultural management index, Firjan Municipal Development Index (IFDM) and environmental index. Tendencies of decreasing local rainfall and high vulnerability conditions for farmers in the region were observed, in general. Therefore, it was found that there is no low risk condition for the analyzed municipalities, regardless of the intensity of the drought. It is concluded, therefore, that drought, as an event of multiple proportions, has its risk aggravated depending on the conditions of local vulnerabilities.Keywords: drought, hazard, vulnerability
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S., VIDYA, and ANUSHIYA JEGANATHAN. "Agro-climatic zone-wise drought hazards in Karnataka under historical and future climate scenarios." MAUSAM 75, no. 2 (2024): 583–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v75i2.6323.
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This study performed the spatio-temporal analysis of drought hazards across the agro-climatic zones (ACZs) of Karnataka under historical and future climate scenarios. The India Meteorological Department’s high-resolution gridded data for1989-2019 was used for historical drought occurrence analysis. Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment ensemble data of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were used for analysing future drought hazards in the near (2031-2060) and end term (2061-2099) periods. The standardised precipitation index (SPI) was used to calculate the frequency of droughts at different accumulation periods of 1, 3, 6, 9, and 12 months. Subsequently, the ACZ-wise drought hazard index (DHI) was calculated and mapped geospatially using ArcGIS. The results indicated that moderate drought events have the highest frequencies of occurrence, followed by severe and extreme drought events for all accumulation periods. During 1989-2019, 54.8%, 28.3% and 16.7% of droughts were moderate, severe, and extreme, respectively. An increase of 2.6% and 2.4% in the frequency of moderate droughts is projected under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively, in the end term. Under both historical and future climate scenarios, a high frequency of extreme droughts was observed in the long accumulation periods (SPI-9 and SPI-12), whereas the frequency of moderate droughts was observed to be high in the short accumulation periods (SPI-1 and SPI-3). Under the historical scenario, the frequency of droughts in the extreme category was high in the southern transition, central dry, and north eastern dry zones, severe category in the northern dry, southern transition, and coastal zones, and moderate category in the north transition, hill, and southern dry zones. Among the 30 districts of Karnataka, Chitradurga, Udupi, Tumakuru, Ballari, Koppala, Raichuruand Gadaga districts have very high DHI. This study sheds light on the potential consequences of climate change on drought scenarios in the Karnataka state’s agro-climate zones and urges for zone specific drought adaptation and mitigation strategies to strengthen the State resilience.
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Blauhut, V., K. Stahl, J. H. Stagge, L. M. Tallaksen, L. De Stefano, and J. Vogt. "Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, hazard indicators and vulnerability factors." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 12, no. 12 (2015): 12515–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hessd-12-12515-2015.
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Abstract. Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan-European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work (1) tests the capability of commonly applied hazard indicators and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and (2) combines information on past drought impacts, drought hazard indicators, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This "hybrid approach" bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact forecast in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector- and macro region specific sensitivities of hazard indicators, with the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for a twelve month aggregation period (SPEI-12) as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictor, with information about landuse and water resources as best vulnerability-based predictors. (3) The application of the "hybrid approach" revealed strong regional (NUTS combo level) and sector specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer aggregation periods, and a combination of information on landuse and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information with drought risk prediction could be proven. Thus, the study contributes to the overall understanding of drivers of drought impacts, current practice of drought indicators selection for specific application, and drought risk assessment.
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Sun, C., S. Choy, Z. Chua, I. Aitkenhead, and Y. Kuleshov. "GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM FOR DROUGHT RISK MAPPING IN AUSTRALIA – DROUGHT RISK ANALYSER WEB APP." ISPRS - International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences XLIV-3/W1-2020 (November 18, 2020): 139–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-xliv-3-w1-2020-139-2020.
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Abstract. Australia frequently experiences extended periods of severe droughts which have a significant negative impact on populations and economy. To improve preparedness for drought, decision-support tools which provide comprehensive information about current dry conditions are essential. In this paper, we present a conceptual design for a Drought Risk Analyser (DRA) – web-based information App for drought risk mapping developed using geographic information system (GIS). The developed DRA is based on combining Drought Hazard/Vulnerability/Exposure Indices (DHI, DVI and DEI respectively) into a final Drought Risk Index (DRI) for total of 542 Local Government Areas (LGA) in Australia. Drought indicators selected to compute drought hazard – the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) and Soil Moisture – were obtained through the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Space-based Weather and Climate Extremes Monitoring (SWCEM) international initiative. Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) census data were used to develop the drought-related population vulnerability index – DVI. Australian national Digital Elevation Model and catchment scale land use data were used to calculate the DEI. Implemented functionality of the designed DRA is illustrated using a case study for the 2019 drought in Australia. The DRA App will be beneficial for Australian farmers and rural communities to assist with decision making, as well as for LGA planners to gain insights on current state of drought risk at both local and national levels. The developed methodology of using space-based observations for assessing drought hazard could be applied for developing similar web-based information tools in drought-prone areas of other countries.
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Setiawan, A. M., A. A. Syafrianno, R. Rahmat, and Supari. "High-Resolution North Sulawesi Drought Hazzard Mapping Based on Consecutive Dry Days (CDD)." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 893, no. 1 (2021): 012018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/893/1/012018.
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Abstract North Sulawesi is one of the Province in northern Indonesia with high spatial annual rainfall variations and influenced by global climate anomaly that can lead to extreme events and disaster occurrence, such as flood, landslide, drought, etc. The purpose of this study is to generate high-resolution meteorological hazard map based on long-term historical consecutive dry days (CDD) over the North Sulawesi region. CDD was calculated based on observed daily precipitation data from Indonesia Agency for Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics (BMKG) surface observation station network (CDDobs) and the daily-improved Climate Hazards group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) version 2.0 (CDDCHIRPS) during 1981 – 2010 period. The Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) data obtained from iTacs (Interactive Tool for Analysis of the Climate System) with the same time scale period also used to explain physical – dynamical atmospheric properties related to drought hazard over this region. The Geostatistical approach using regression kriging method was applied as spatial interpolation technique to generate high resolution gridded (0.05° × 0.05°) drought hazard map. This method combines a regression of CDDobs as dependent variable (target variable) on CDDCHIRPS as predictors with kriging of the prediction residuals. The results show that most of the areas were categorized as medium drought hazard level with CDD values ranging from 80-100 days. Meanwhile, small islands around main Sulawesi island such as Sangihe and Karakelong island are dominated by low drought hazard levels with CDD values ranging from 50-60 days. The highest levels of drought hazard area are located in South Bolaang Mongondow Regency.
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Gibson, A. J., D. C. Verdon-Kidd, and G. R. Hancock. "Characterising the seasonal nature of meteorological drought onset and termination across Australia." Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth Systems Science 72, no. 1 (2022): 38–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/es21009.
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Drought, and its associated impacts, represents one of the costliest natural hazards worldwide, highlighting the need for prediction and preparedness. While advancements have been made in monitoring current droughts, prediction of onset and termination have proven to be much more challenging. This is because drought is unlike any other natural hazard and cannot be characterised by a single weather event. There is also a high degree of spatial variability in this phenomenon across the vast expanse of the Australian continent. Therefore, by characterising regionally specific expressions of drought, we may improve drought predictability. In this study, we analyse the timing of onset and termination of meteorological droughts across Australia from 1900 to 2015, as well as their local and regional climate controls. We show that meteorological drought onset has a strong seasonal signature across Australia that varies spatially, whereas termination is less seasonally restricted. Using a Random Forest modelling approach with predictor variables representative of large-scale ocean-atmosphere phenomena and local climate, up to 75% of the variance in the Standardised Precipitation Index during both onset and termination could be explained. This study offers support to continued development in long-lead forecasting of local and large-scale ocean/atmosphere conditions to improve drought prediction in Australia and elsewhere.
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Frischen, Janna, Isabel Meza, Daniel Rupp, Katharina Wietler, and Michael Hagenlocher. "Drought Risk to Agricultural Systems in Zimbabwe: A Spatial Analysis of Hazard, Exposure, and Vulnerability." Sustainability 12, no. 3 (2020): 752. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12030752.
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The devastating impacts of drought are fast becoming a global concern. Zimbabwe is among the countries more severely affected, where drought impacts have led to water shortages, declining yields, and periods of food insecurity, accompanied by economic downturns. In particular, the country’s agricultural sector, mostly comprised of smallholder rainfed systems, is at great risk of drought. In this study, a multimethod approach is applied, including a remote sensing-based analysis of vegetation health data from 1989–2019 to assess the drought hazard, as well as a spatial analysis combined with expert consultations to determine drought vulnerability and exposure of agricultural systems. The results show that droughts frequently occur with changing patterns across Zimbabwe. Every district has been affected by drought during the past thirty years, with varying levels of severity and frequency. Severe drought episodes have been observed in 1991–1992, 1994–1995, 2002–2003, 2015–2016, and 2018–2019. Drought vulnerability and exposure vary substantially in the country, with the south-western provinces of Matabeleland North and South showing particularly high levels. Assessments of high-risk areas, combined with an analysis of the drivers of risk, set the path towards tailor-made adaptation strategies that consider drought frequency and severity, exposure, and vulnerability.
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Szalińska, Wiwiana, Irena Otop, and Tamara Tokarczyk. "Urban drought." E3S Web of Conferences 45 (2018): 00095. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20184500095.
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Drought is recognized as one of the most complex natural hazards that have a large negative impact on society, economic sectors and the environment. Drought events affect freshwater resources and can become a great threat to urban water supply systems. According to climate change projections with an increase of air temperature and duration of dry periods, cities may experience a serious water shortage in the future that can limit sustainable urban development. Water-related consequences in urban areas can concern various socio-economic sectors as well as urban ecosystems. This paper focuses on drought in urban areas as an event of below-average natural water availability that can result in difficulties in meeting the water needs of socio-economic sectors and ecosystems particularly vulnerable to drought. Drought vulnerable sectors were identified within the local context of the City of Wroclaw area. Long-term analyses of meteorological and hydrological indicators were performed in order to estimate the drought hazard in Wrocław. A combination of water shortage hazard and the vulnerability of water users were the basis to assess local drought risks. Reducing the drought risk requires coherent actions from both city and water managers. The paper presents a set of recommendable measures to avoid potential water shortages and to cope with impacts of drought in the Wroclaw area.
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Abuzar, Muhammad Khubaib, Muhammad Shafiq, Syed Amer Mahmood, et al. "Drought Risk Assessment in the Khushab Region of Pakistan Using Satellite Remote Sensing and Geospatial Methods." International Journal of Economic and Environmental Geology 10, no. 1 (2019): 48–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.46660/ijeeg.vol10.iss1.2019.217.
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Drought is a harmful and slow natural phenomenon that has significant effects on the economy, social life,agriculture and environment of the country. Due to its slow process it is difficult to study this phenomenon. RemoteSensing and GIS tools play a key role in studying different hazards like droughts. The main objective of the study wasto investigate drought risk by using GIS and Remote Sensing techniques in district Khushab, Pakistan. Landsat ETMimages for the year 2003, 2009 and 2015 were utilized for spatial and temporal analysis of agricultural andmeteorological drought. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) andrainfall anomaly indices were calculated to identify the drought prone areas in the study area. To monitormeteorological drought SPI values were used and NDVI was calculated for agricultural drought. These indices wereintegrated to compute the spatial and temporal drought maps. Three zones; no drought, slight drought and moderatedrought were identified. Final drought map shows that 30.21% of the area faces moderate drought, 28.36% faces slightdrought while nearly 41.3% faces no drought situation. Drought prevalence and severity is present more in the southernpart of Khushab district than the northern part. Most of the northern part is not under any type of drought. Thus, anoverall outcome of this study shows that risk areas can be assessed appropriately by integration of various data sourcesand thereby management plans can be prepared to deal with the hazard.
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Abuzar, Muhammad Khubaib, Muhammad Shafiq, Syed Amer Mahmood, et al. "Drought Risk Assessment in the Khushab Region of Pakistan Using Satellite Remote Sensing and Geospatial Methods." International Journal of Economic and Environmental Geology 10, no. 1 (2019): 48–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.46660/ojs.v10i1.217.
Full textAbstract:
Drought is a harmful and slow natural phenomenon that has significant effects on the economy, social life,agriculture and environment of the country. Due to its slow process it is difficult to study this phenomenon. RemoteSensing and GIS tools play a key role in studying different hazards like droughts. The main objective of the study wasto investigate drought risk by using GIS and Remote Sensing techniques in district Khushab, Pakistan. Landsat ETMimages for the year 2003, 2009 and 2015 were utilized for spatial and temporal analysis of agricultural andmeteorological drought. Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) andrainfall anomaly indices were calculated to identify the drought prone areas in the study area. To monitormeteorological drought SPI values were used and NDVI was calculated for agricultural drought. These indices wereintegrated to compute the spatial and temporal drought maps. Three zones; no drought, slight drought and moderatedrought were identified. Final drought map shows that 30.21% of the area faces moderate drought, 28.36% faces slightdrought while nearly 41.3% faces no drought situation. Drought prevalence and severity is present more in the southernpart of Khushab district than the northern part. Most of the northern part is not under any type of drought. Thus, anoverall outcome of this study shows that risk areas can be assessed appropriately by integration of various data sourcesand thereby management plans can be prepared to deal with the hazard.
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Schwarz, Maximilian, Tobias Landmann, Natalie Cornish, Karl-Friedrich Wetzel, Stefan Siebert, and Jonas Franke. "A Spatially Transferable Drought Hazard and Drought Risk Modeling Approach Based on Remote Sensing Data." Remote Sensing 12, no. 2 (2020): 237. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs12020237.
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Drought adversely affects vegetation conditions and agricultural production and consequently the food security and livelihood situation of the often most vulnerable communities. In spite of recent advances in modeling drought risk and impact, coherent and explicit information on drought hazard, vulnerability and risk is still lacking over wider areas. In this study, a spatially explicit drought hazard, vulnerability, and risk modeling framework was investigated for agricultural land, grassland and shrubland areas. The developed drought hazard model operates on a higher spatial resolution than most available drought models while also being scalable to other regions. Initially, a logistic regression model was developed to predict drought hazard for rangelands and croplands in the USA. The drought hazard model was cross-verified for the USA using the United States Drought Monitor (USDM). The comparison of the model with the USDM showed a good spatiotemporal agreement, using visual interpretation. Subsequently, the explicit and accurate USA model was transferred and calibrated for South Africa and Zimbabwe, where drought vulnerability and drought risk were assessed in combination with drought hazard. The drought hazard model used time series crop yields data from the Food and Agriculture Organization Corporate Statistical Database (FAOSTAT) and biophysical predictors from satellite remote sensing (SPI, NDVI, NDII, LST, albedo). A McFadden’s Pseudo R² value of 0.17 for the South African model indicated a good model fit. The plausibility of the drought hazard model results in southern Africa was evaluated by using regional climate patterns, published drought reports and a visual comparison to a global drought risk model and food security classification data. Drought risk and vulnerability were assessed for southern Africa and could also be spatially explicit mapped showing, for example, lower drought vulnerability and risk over irrigated areas. The innovative aspect of the presented drought hazard model is that it can be applied to other countries at a global scale, since it only uses globally available data sets and therefore can be easily modified to account for country-specific characteristics. At the same time, it can capture regional drought conditions through a higher resolution than other existing global drought hazard models. This model addressed the gap between global drought models, that cannot spatially and temporally explicitly capture regional drought effects, and sub-regional drought models that may be spatially explicit but not spatially transferable. Since we used globally available and spatially consistent data sets (both as predictors and response variables), the approach of this study can potentially be used globally to enhance existing modelling routines, drought intervention strategies and preparedness measures.
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Kumar, Abhinav. "Drought modelling: A comprehensive review." INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES 20, no. 2 (2024): 637–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.15740/has/ijas/20.2/637-643.
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Droughts are a recurring natural hazard with significant social, economic, and environmental consequences. Accurate drought modelling is crucial for effective drought preparedness, mitigation, and response strategies. This review paper comprehensively overviews drought modelling approaches, including traditional statistical, physically-based and emerging machine learning techniques. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of each approach, highlighting recent advancements and future research directions. Additionally, we examine the various drought indices employed for drought characterization and explore the integration of climate change scenarios into drought modelling frameworks. Finally, the review addresses the challenges and limitations of drought modelling and emphasizes the importance of data availability, model validation, and user-centric applications.
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Cui, Yi, Huiyan Tang, Juliang Jin, Yuliang Zhou, Shangming Jiang, and Menglu Chen. "System Structure–Based Drought Disaster Risk Assessment Using Remote Sensing and Field Experiment Data." Remote Sensing 14, no. 22 (2022): 5700. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs14225700.
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With the impacts of climate change and human activities, agricultural drought disaster losses have increased remarkably. Drought disaster risk assessment is a prerequisite for formulating disaster reduction strategies and ensuring food security. However, drought disaster risk is a complex system, and quantitative assessment methods reflecting the risk formation mechanism are still rarely reported. This study presented a chain transmission system structure of drought disaster risk, which meant that drought disaster loss risk R was derived from drought hazard H by the transformation of drought disaster vulnerability V. Based on this point, firstly, a drought hazard curve between drought intensity and drought frequency was established using remote sensing data and the copula function. Then, a crop loss calculation approach under various drought events and drought resistance capacity scenarios was achieved by two-season field experiments and the AquaCrop model. Finally, a loss risk curve cluster of “drought frequency–drought resistance capacity–yield loss rate” was proposed by the composition of the above two quantitative relationships. The results of the case study for summer maize in Bengbu City indicated that the average yield loss rate under 19 droughts occurring during the growth period of maize from 1982 to 2017 was 24.51%. High risk happened in 1988, 1992, 1994, 2001, and 2004, with the largest loss rate in 2001, up to 65.58%. Overall, droughts with a return period less than two years occurred frequently during the growth period of summer maize in Bengbu, though the loss risk was still controllable. In conclusion, the results suggest that the loss risk curve provides a new effective method of drought disaster risk quantitative assessment from a physical mechanism perspective, which lays a scientific foundation for decision-making in risk management.
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Park, Soonchan, and Heechan Han. "Application of LSTM and Climate Index for Prediction of Meteorological Drought in South Korea." Water 17, no. 12 (2025): 1801. https://doi.org/10.3390/w17121801.
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Climate change has intensified natural hazards, including droughts, which have caused substantial damage in South Korea. Drought, characterized by prolonged moisture deficiency, is typically assessed using drought indices that reflect meteorological conditions. This study examined the influence of various meteorological and climate indices on drought variability in the Yeongsan and Seomjin River basins. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to represent drought conditions, and its monthly variations were predicted using the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) algorithm. To assess model performance, four statistical indicators—Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), and the Coefficient of Determination (R2)—were employed. The LSTM model that utilized both precipitation and drought indices as input data showed the best performance, achieving an MSE of 0.2, RMSE of 0.477, NSE of 0.77, and R2 of 0.78. Overall predictive performance ranged from 0.298 to 0.347 (MSE), 0.546 to 0.589 (RMSE), 0.578 to 0.628 (NSE), and 0.580 to 0.675 (R2). This study highlights the effectiveness of LSTM in predicting drought conditions and the value of incorporating meteorological and climatic indices. The results can support improved drought hazard assessment and management strategies in South Korea.
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Nita, Istika, Aditya Nugraha Putra, and Alia Febrianingtyas. "Analysis of drought hazards in agricultural land in Pacitan Regency, Indonesia." SAINS TANAH - Journal of Soil Science and Agroclimatology 17, no. 1 (2020): 7. http://dx.doi.org/10.20961/stjssa.v17i1.35688.
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Pacitan Regency is a region in East Java Province with varied landforms and high disaster potential, including drought. The drought hazard in this region has not yet been determined. This study was conducted to analyze the potential of drought in Pacitan Regency in 2018 with the previous two decades (1998 and 2008) to predict future droughts. The study also focused on verifying how land-use changes impact drought potential. Mapping drought potential was based on the Ministry of Forestry method and was modified for this study. Drought potential was determined by scoring features and analyzing with a weighted overlay. Reference parameters and patterns of land-use change, as determined by Landsat 5, 7, and 8 satellite imagery, were analyzed. Then, the changing pattern was used to predict future 2030 land-use patterns using business as usual (BAU) analysis. For comparison, a land-use analysis was also done using the land capability class (LCC) and regional spatial plan (RSP). Data was validated using a confusion matrix. The accuracy of the drought estimation for Pacitan Regency was 75%. The results showed that the drought potential high and very-high level risk groups increased. The increase occurred due to changes in land use, specifically land management and plant species selection. Based on the results of the predicting BAU analysis, the level of potential of drought will increase by 2030. The regional spatial plan (RSP) and LCC analysis determined that, with no drought intervention, drought hazard in Pacitan Regency will increase.
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Putra, Victorius Setiaji, Gusfan Halik, and Retno Utami Agung Wiyono. "Assessment of Drought Hazard: A Case Study in Sampean Baru Watershed, Bondowoso Regency." Jurnal Teknik Sipil dan Perencanaan 23, no. 1 (2021): 56–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.15294/jtsp.v23i1.28177.
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Abstract. The Sampean Baru watershed is categorized as an area with a very high level of vulnerability to drought. The purpose of this study was to assess the hydrological drought in the Sampean Baru watershed. NCEP / NCAR Reanalysis climate change data is used to obtain synthetic rainfall models of the past. This climate change data has crude resolution and is global in scale. The NCEP / NCAR Reanalysis data was processed through a downscaling process to obtain local scale climate data in the form of past synthetic rains. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is one of the downscaling models used in this study. The ANN downscaling output was processed through discharge modeling using SWAT. Hydrological drought assessment used the Standardized Precipitation Index (SRI) method. The SRI calculation was based on the accumulated discharge over a period of time. The results indicated that the ANN downscaling process can bridge global scale climate data to local scale climate data. SWAT modeling gave excellent results. SRI-6 can describe past droughts. It can be seen from the compatibility between the results of the drought assessment and the drought data belonging to the relevant authorities.
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Chen, Fang, Huicong Jia, and Donghua Pan. "Risk Assessment of Maize Drought in China Based on Physical Vulnerability." Journal of Food Quality 2019 (January 3, 2019): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2019/9392769.
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Applying disaster system theory and with reference to the mechanisms that underlie agricultural drought risk, in this study, crop yield loss levels were determined on the basis of hazards and environmental and hazard-affected entities (crops). Thus, by applying agricultural drought risk assessment methodologies, the spatiotemporal distribution of maize drought risk was assessed at the national scale. The results of this analysis revealed that the overall maize drought risk decreases gradually along a northwest-to-southeast transect within maize planting areas, a function of the climatic change from arid to humid, and that the highest yield loss levels are located at values between 0.35 and 0.45. This translates to drought risks of once in every 10 and 20 years within 47.17% and 43.31% of the total maize-producing areas of China, respectively. Irrespective of the risk level, however, the highest maize yield loss rates are seen in northwestern China. The outcomes of this study provide the scientific basis for the future prevention and mitigation of agricultural droughts as well as the rationalization of related insurance.
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Blauhut, Veit, Michael Stoelzle, Lauri Ahopelto, et al. "Lessons from the 2018–2019 European droughts: a collective need for unifying drought risk management." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 22, no. 6 (2022): 2201–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022.
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Abstract. Drought events and their impacts vary spatially and temporally due to diverse pedo-climatic and hydrologic conditions, as well as variations in exposure and vulnerability, such as demographics and response actions. While hazard severity and frequency of past drought events have been studied in detail, little is known about the effect of drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how the hazard is perceived by relevant stakeholders. In a continental study, we characterised and assessed the impacts and the perceptions of two recent drought events (2018 and 2019) in Europe and examined the relationship between management strategies and drought perception, hazard, and impact. The study was based on a pan-European survey involving national representatives from 28 countries and relevant stakeholders responding to a standard questionnaire. The survey focused on collecting information on stakeholders' perceptions of drought, impacts on water resources and beyond, water availability, and current drought management strategies on national and regional scales. The survey results were compared with the actual drought hazard information registered by the European Drought Observatory (EDO) for 2018 and 2019. The results highlighted high diversity in drought perception across different countries and in values of the implemented drought management strategies to alleviate impacts by increasing national and sub-national awareness and resilience. The study identifies an urgent need to further reduce drought impacts by constructing and implementing a European macro-level drought governance approach, such as a directive, which would strengthen national drought management and mitigate damage to human and natural assets.
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Zhang, Lei, Wei Song, and Wen Song. "Assessment of Agricultural Drought Risk in the Lancang-Mekong Region, South East Asia." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 17 (2020): 6153. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17176153.
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Natural disasters worldwide regularly impact on human activities. As a frequently occurring natural disaster, drought has adverse impacts on agricultural production. The Lancang-Mekong River is a transnational river running through China and five Southeast Asian countries and it is a vital water resource for irrigation in the region. Drought in the Lancang-Mekong Region (LMR) has occurred frequently in recent years. Assessing the risk of drought in the region is essential for rational planning of agricultural production and formulation of drought relief measures. In this study, an assessment of drought risk has been achieved by combining the hazard and vulnerability assessments for drought. The assessment of the drought hazard depends mainly on the standardized precipitation index (SPI). The assessment of drought vulnerability takes into account various indicators such as climatic factors (e.g., crop water stress index), soil factors (e.g., available water capacity), and irrigation factors (e.g., irrigation support). The results reveal that: (1) Drought distribution in the LMR is characterized by a spreading of the drought to countries along the middle and lower reaches of the Mekong River. Countries located in the middle and lower reaches of the Mekong River are more prone to drought. Laos, Thailand, and Cambodia are the regions with higher and high-drought risk levels. (2) The spatial distributions for the drought hazard and the drought vulnerability in the LMR exhibit significant differences as evidenced in the mapping results. High-hazard and high-vulnerability areas are mainly distributed in the middle LMR, and the middle to higher hazard areas and the middle to higher vulnerability areas are mainly distributed in the south-central LMR, while the low-hazard areas and the low-vulnerability areas are mainly in the north. (3) The majority of planting areas for sugarcane, rice, and cassava are located in the high-hazard areas. The distributions of drought-prone and high-hazard areas also correspond to the main agricultural areas in the LMR.
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Adeogun, B. K., U. A. Abubakar, and M. O. Nwude. "Models validation and forecasting for drought risk reduction in developing countries." Applied Research Journal of Science and Technology 1, no. 1 (2018): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.47721/arjst20180101014.
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Drought risk reduction should be based on effective monitoring and early warning systems affordable by both privileged and vulnerable nations and regions. Drought can be pandemic over months and hence, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at the time scale of one – month was modelled for drought monitoring and real-time forecasting. Developed predictive SPI models were used to forecast droughts in the seven meteorological stations in the region in the year 2009 and the forecast negative SPIs, reflecting droughts, were compared with drought class thresholds to predict and identify drought occurrences at different phases such as emergence watch, warning and emergency. The results showed drought forecasts of emergence phase at most of the stations. This implied that monitoring was necessary so that warning alert could be declared as soon as the drought emergence phase progressed into warning stage. It is recommended that the models should be used to forecast droughts ahead on monthly bases. Also, the simple predictive models should be developed for other less developed regions as the early warning services component of people-centred early warning systems for effective drought risk reduction in developing countries. Key words: Drought risk reduction, hazard risks, standardized precipitation index
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Fitria, Lulu Mari, and Septiana Fathurrohmah. "DROUGHT HAZARD CHARACTERISTIC USING SOIL MOISTURE DEFICIT INDEX MODELLING." Geoplanning: Journal of Geomatics and Planning 5, no. 1 (2018): 91. http://dx.doi.org/10.14710/geoplanning.5.1.91-100.
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Drought happen when the rainfall decreases in the extreme condition for long period of time (above normal). Drought hazard mapping can be analyzed by various approaches, like environmental approach, ecological approach, hydrological approach, meteorological approach, geological approach, agricultural approach, and many other. Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency (in Indonesia a.k.a BMKG) measures the drought hazard by utilizing Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)The comparison of rainfall rate through SPI has positive correlation with drought type, for example SPI 3 indicates agricultural drought; while SPI 6, SPI 9 and SPI 12 indicate hydrological drought. The analysis of drought hazard level also can be done using soil moisture level measurement. Soil moisture is the result of water shortages in the hydroclimatological concept. Soil moisture analysis utilizes several influenced variables, such as soil water, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and percolation. Each of variables was analyzed using GIS as a method of soil moisture modeling. Drought index level analysis is using soil moisture deficit index, which indicates that drought occurs if the index score less than (-0.5). Some assumptions used in this modeling are both SMDI modeling using WHC (Water Holding Capacity) and without using WHC. This modeling used medium term analysis during 2007-2012 to prove the occurrence of extreme drought on 2009 and 2012 for measurement of drought level in agriculture area. Based on SMDI, it is known that the dangers of SMDI drought have positive correlation to SPI 3, SPI 6, SPI 9, and SPI 12, where SPI is in accordance with the interpretation of meteorolgy, agriculture, and hydrological drought indices.