Academic literature on the topic 'Drought - South Africa'

Abstract Severe droughts in southern Africa are associated with livelihood impacts, a strain on local economies, and other hardships. Extensive effort has been spent in the past trying to improve responses to periods of extensive drought. There have also been renewed calls for improvements to climate change adaptation by adopting more proactive governance and disaster risk reduction approaches. Few efforts, however, have been made to assess how to learn more from past drought efforts so as to enhance overall resilience to future drought risks. Few have examined the role and contributions of institutions and drought governance, either across spatial scales [from regional (i.e., Southern African Development Community) to national scales (e.g., South Africa) to the very local scale (e.g., Limpopo Province, South Africa)] or across temporal scales (over at least 100 yr). Despite calls for better risk management approaches at all levels, this paper illustrates two points. First, a failure to fully understand, integrate, and learn from past efforts may undermine current and future drought response. Second, state-led drought risk reduction, which remains focused on a financial “bail-out” mentality, with little follow-through on proactive rather than reactive drought responses, is also seriously contributing to the vulnerability of the region to future drought impacts.

Ecosystem services refer to the direct and indirect benefits to humanity from an ecosystem. The ability to spatially incorporate multiple biophysical environments is crucial to ecosystem services, thus promoting cooperation between science and policy in seeking solutions to global challenges, including drought disasters. Therefore, understanding ecosystem services, for instance, from forest/vegetation in view of contributing to drought disaster risk adaptation is critical to human-nature interactions and proper sustainable conservation thereof. No known study has been done on ecosystem services and their contributions to drought management or other climate adaptation in South Africa. This study aimed at quantifying drought disaster risk adaptation based on ecosystem services in South Africa. It was identified that ecosystem services to society have been directly affected by anthropogenic and natural phenomena, thereby influencing drought severity and its impacts. These impacts and their associated risks are evident globally, including in South Africa. We found out that ecosystems in South Africa have been affected and extremely vulnerable to recurrent natural disasters, such as droughts. To achieve long-term solutions to such drought-related risks and challenges, feedback mechanisms between human-natural and related factors and ecosystem services-based drought adaptation need to be understood and planned. Timely spatiotemporal assessment, planning and management strategies need to be considered to find solutions or ways forward to South Africa in combating drought disasters.

Abstract Droughts have severe direct impacts on the livelihoods of rural populations. Thus, the management of water for communal agriculture and water supply should be well coordinated to enhance drought resilience. Notwithstanding the interrelations among water management institutions in South Africa, there are complexities in the way these institutions work together, both in preparation for, and during drought times. In this article, we examine the governance of water resources in South Africa with a view to understanding institutional coordination in drought management at different operational scales. Using a qualitative approach, the roles and relationships between water actors at the local and regional level were analyzed for their adequacy in building local level drought resilience in a village in the Limpopo province, South Africa. Key informant interviews conducted revealed operational drought management challenges that emanate from communication barriers, coordination inconsistences, and undefined, unclear actor roles and responsibilities during disasters. The top-down approach to disaster management, while of some value, currently constrains the effectiveness of the local-level institutions implementing local drought risk reduction efforts. Achieving more successful water and drought governance endeavors could be enhanced by greater and wider engagement with community-based actors and water management institutions.

Abstract. Global climate change has received much attention worldwide in the scientific as well as in the political community, indicating that changes in precipitation, extreme droughts and floods may threaten increasingly many regions. Drought is a natural phenomenon that may cause social, economical and environmental damages to the society. In this study, we assess the drought intensity and severity and the groundwater potential to be used as a supplement source of water to mitigate drought impacts in the Crocodile River catchment, a water-stressed sub-catchment of the Incomati River catchment in South Africa. The research methodology consists mainly of three parts. First, the spatial and temporal variation of the meteorological and hydrological drought severity and intensity over the catchment were evaluated. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to analyse the meteorological drought and the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) was used for the hydrological drought. Second, the water deficit in the catchment during the drought period was computed using a simple water balance method. Finally, a groundwater model was constructed in order to assess the feasibility of using groundwater as an emergency source for drought impact mitigation. Results show that the meteorological drought severity varies accordingly with the precipitation; the low rainfall areas are more vulnerable to severe meteorological droughts (lower and upper crocodile). Moreover, the most water stressed sub-catchments with high level of water uses but limited storage, such as the Kaap located in the middle catchment and the Lower Crocodile sub-catchments are those which are more vulnerable to severe hydrological droughts. The analysis of the potential groundwater use during droughts showed that a deficit of 97 Mm3 yr−1 could be supplied from groundwater without considerable adverse impacts on the river base flow and groundwater storage. Abstraction simulations for different scenarios of extremely severe droughts reveal that it is possible to use groundwater to cope with the droughts in the catchment. However, local groundwater exploitation in Nelspruit and White River sub-catchment will cause large drawdowns (> 10 m) and high base flow reduction (> 20%). This case study shows that conjunctive water management of groundwater and surface water resources is the necessary to mitigate the impacts of droughts.

The spatial-temporal variability of drought characteristics and propagation mechanisms in the hydrological cycle is a pertinent topic to policymakers and to the diverse scientific community. This study reports on the analysis of drought characteristics and propagation patterns in the hydrological cycle over South Africa. In particular, the analysis considered daily precipitation and streamflow data spanning from 1985 to 2016, recorded from 74 weather stations, distributed across South Africa and covering the country’s 19 Water Management Areas (WMAs). The results show that all the WMAs experience drought features characterized by an inherent spatial-temporal dependence structure with transition periods categorized into short (1–3 months), intermediate (4–6 months), long (7–12 months) and extended (>12 months) time-scales. Coupled with climate and catchment characteristics, the drought propagation characteristics delineate the WMAs into homogenous zones subtly akin to the broader climatic zones of South Africa, i.e., Savanna, Grassland, Karoo, Fynbos, Forest, and Desert climates. We posit that drought evolution results emanating from the current study provide a new perspective of drought characterization with practical use for the design of drought monitoring, as well as early warning systems for drought hazard preparedness and effective water resources planning and management. Overall, the analysis of drought evolution in South Africa is expected to stimulate advanced drought research topics, including the elusive drought termination typology.

Abstract. Global climate change has received much attention worldwide in the scientific as well as in the political community, indicating that changes in precipitation, extreme droughts and floods may increasingly threaten many regions. Drought is a natural phenomenon that causes social, economical and environmental damage to society. In this study, we assess the drought intensity and severity and the groundwater potential to be used as a supplementary source of water to mitigate drought impacts in the Crocodile River catchment, a water-stressed sub-catchment of the Incomati River catchment in South Africa. The research methodology consists of three parts. First, the spatial and temporal variation of the meteorological and hydrological drought severity and intensity over the catchment were evaluated. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used to analyse the meteorological drought and the Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) was used for the hydrological drought. Second, the water deficit in the catchment during the drought period was computed using a simple water balance method. Finally, a groundwater model was constructed in order to assess the feasibility of using groundwater as an emergency source for drought impact mitigation. Results show that the low-rainfall areas are more vulnerable to severe meteorological droughts (lower and upper crocodile). Moreover, the most water stressed sub-catchments with high level of water uses but limited storage, such as the Kaap located in the middle catchment and the Lower Crocodile sub-catchments, are more vulnerable to severe hydrological droughts. The analysis of the potential groundwater use during droughts showed that a deficit of 97 Mm3 yr−1 could be supplied from groundwater without considerable adverse impacts on the river base flow and groundwater storage. Abstraction simulations for different scenarios of extremely severe droughts reveal that it is possible to use groundwater to cope with the droughts in the catchment. However, local groundwater exploitation in Nelspruit and White River sub-catchment will cause large drawdowns (> 10 m) and high base flow reduction (> 20%). This case study shows that conjunctive water management of groundwater and surface water resources is necessary to mitigate the impacts of droughts.

This study focuses on the geographical variation of drought in northern South Africa (hereafter NSA). It assesses seasonal rainfall characteristics to determine drought occurrence and persistence in NSA. Seasonal rainfall data for the period 1960-2009 is used and was obtained from the South Africa Weather Service (SAWS). Rainfall stations in NSA are well distributed, forming a dense network of point-source data samples. Standardised Precipitation Indices (SPIs) are employed to detect drought occurrence and intensity at different locations. Analysis of SPIs with respect to time suggests that the severity of drought results from the accumulation of consecutive dry spells within a rainfall season and sometimes even consecutive dry rainfall seasons. It also shows the intensity and frequency of drought has increased in recent years. The trend towards worsening drought conditions has significant socioeconomic implications for the region and other areas with similar geographical settings.

South Africa has been experiencing a series of droughts for the last few years, limiting the availability of water supply in reservoirs and impacting many sectors of the economy. These droughts have affected even the wetter eastern provinces including KwaZulu-Natal. This paper presents the results of analyses and assessment of meteorological drought across KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) Province of South Africa using two drought indices. The main objective of the study is to understand the changes in rainfall patterns for a period of 48 years (i.e., 1970 to 2017) and identify wet and dry years. The percent of normal precipitation index (PNPI) and rainfall anomaly index (RAI) were used to explore and categorize the wet and dry periods at 18 selected rainfall gauging stations across the province. Mann–Kendall statistics and Sen’s slope were employed on the indices to further understand the trend of drought conditions. The results revealed that 1992 and 2014/15 were the most extremely dry years with 2015 being the driest year over the studied period induced by El Niño. The extremely wet periods were 1987, 1996, and 2000 which have been associated with cyclonic events. Droughts have become more frequent and intense, while wet conditions are less frequent. The drought condition was observed not to be peculiar to one region and to vary from year-to-year. These variations have been associated with global climate drivers including El Niño-southern oscillation (ENSO) and sea surface temperature (SST) conditions. The northern region around Magudu, Hlobane, Vryheid and Dundee were relatively the most affected during periods of extreme drought conditions. Comparative analysis showed that RAI is more robust than PNPI in understanding drought conditions. Thus, it can be applied effectively in Southern Africa in analyzing dry and wet conditions.

Drought limits the production of plantation forests, notably in the drought-prone Zululand region of South Africa. During the last 40 years, the country has faced a series of severe droughts, however that of 2015 stands out as the most extreme and prolonged. The 2015 drought impaired forest productivity and led to widespread tree mortality in this region, but the identification of tree response to drought stress remains uncertain because of its spatial variability. To address this problem, a method that can capture drought patterns and identify trees with similar reactions to drought stress is desired. This could improve the accuracy of detecting trees suffering from drought stress which is key for forest management planning. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the utility of unsupervised mapping approaches in compartments of Eucalyptus trees with similar drought characteristics based on the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) and to demonstrate the value of cloud-based Google Earth Engine (GEE) resources for rapid landscape drought monitoring. Our results showed that calculating distances between pixels using three different matrices (Random Forest (RF) proximity, Euclidean and Manhattan) can accurately detect similarities within a dataset. The RF proximity matrix produced the best measures, which were clustered using Wards hierarchical clustering to detect drought with the highest overall accuracy of 87.7%, followed by Manhattan (85.9%) and Euclidean similarity measures (79.9%), with user and producer results between 84.2% to 91.2%, 42.8% to 98.2% and 37.2% to 94.7%, respectively. These results confirm the value of the RF proximity matrix and underscore the capability of automatic unsupervised mapping approaches for monitoring drought stress in tree plantations, as well as the value of using GEE for providing cost effective datasets to resource stricken countries.

The Association for Rural Advancement (AFRA) has run a Drought Project since October 1992. The project's primary focus was to monitor drought conditions in the AFRA's operational area and to assist communities to access relief through providing them with relevant information and helping them to submit proposals to relief agencies. In attempting to do this, it became clear that the effects of drought on rural black communities was not a well understood phenomenon. We also found that relief strategies were informed more by economic, agricultural and meteorological criteria than social ones. This Special Report aims to contribute to the development of a more appropriate drought management strategy, especially with regard to rural communities. In attempting to make this contribution, the Report examines the factors involved in redefining drought and drought relief perspectives in relation to rural communities. However, the range of factors involved and the scarcity of useful information on them, dictate that this is merely an introduction. The complexities and implications arising from the introduction of these factors into drought management in South Africa should be explored on an on-going basis. Because of the scarcity of relevant information about the effects of drought on black rural communities in South Africa, this Report has relied on AFRA's limited monitoring of such communities. Some information was also gathered through Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) methods. There were also difficulties in getting information about relief schemes and their operations as most relief agencies were reluctant to release this information. As a result, almost all the relief related information in this Special Report was obtained from publications and reports of the National Consultative Forum on Drought.

Thesis (MScFor)--Stellenbosch University, 2013.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The study aims at developing models for predicting aboveground biomass for selected drought tolerant Eucalyptus (E) species (E. cladocalyx, E. gomphocephala and E. grandis x camaldulensis) from the dry west coast. Biomass models were fit for each of the species and a cross-species model was parameterised based on pooled data for all the three species. Data was based on destructive sampling of 28 eucalypt trees which were 20 years of age and additional five five-year old E. gomphocephala trees. Preliminary measurements on diameter at breast height (dbh), height (h) and crown height were recorded in the field. The sampled trees were then felled and samples of discs, branches and foliage were collected. Density of the wood discs and the bark was determined by a water displacement method and computer tomography scanning (CT-scanner). Stem biomass was reconstructed using Smalian’s formula for volume determination and the calculated densities. Upscaling of the crown was carried out by regression equations formulated by employing the sampled branches. Further assessment was carried out on a sub-sample by subjecting the samples to different drying temperatures in a series between 60 and 105ºC. Linear models were parameterised by a simultaneous regression approach based on Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) using the “Systemfit” R statistical package. The predictor variables employed in the study were dbh, d2h and h in which the coefficient of determination (R2), Mean Standard Error (MSE) and Root Mean Standard Error (RMSE) were used to determine the goodness of fit for the models. Akaike Information Criteria (AIC) was also used in the selection of the best fitting model. A system of equations consisting of five models was formulated for each Eucalyptus species. The biomass prediction models had degrees of determination (R2) ranging from 0.65 to 0.98 in which dbh and d2h were the main predictor variable while h improved the model fit. The total biomass models were the best fitting models in most cases while foliage biomass had the least good fit when compared to other models. When the samples were subjected to different drying temperatures, stem wood had the largest percentage change of 6% when drying from 60ºC to 105ºC while foliage had the lowest percentage change of less than 2%.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die doel met hierdie studie is om modelle vir die voorspelling van die bogrondse biomassa van drie droogte-bestande Eucalyptus (E) spesies (E. cladocalyx, E. gomphocephala en E. grandis x camaldulensis), gekweek op die droë kusvlakte in Wes-Kaapland, te ontwikkel. Biomassa modelle vir elk van die spesies is gepas en ’n model gegrond op die gekombineerde data van al drie die spesies, is geparameteriseer. Verder is die biomassa variasie onder verskeie droogingstemperature vasgestel. Die data versameling is uitgevoer gegrond op die destruktiewe mostering van 28 Eucalyptus bome wat 20 jaar oud was en ’n bykomende vyf vyfjarige E. gomphocephala bome. Die aanvanklike mates, naamlik deursnee op borshoogte (dbh), boomhoogte (h) en kroonhoogte is in die veld opgemeet. Die gemonsterde bome is afgesaag en monsters van stamhout skywe, takke en die bas is versamel. Die digtheid van die skywe en die bas is deur die waterverplasing metode, en Rekenaar Tomografie skandering (“CT-scanning”) vasgestel. Stam biomassa is rekonstrukteer deur gebruik te maak van Smalian se formule vir die vasstelling van volume en berekende digtheid. Die opskaal van die kroon biomassa is gedoen met behulp van regressie vergelykings van gekose takmonsters. Submonsters is onderwerp aan ’n reeks van verskillende drogingstemperature tussen 60 en 105ºC. Lineêre modelle is deur ’n gelyktydige regressie benadering gegrond op die Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) wat ’n“Systemfit” R statistiese pakket gebruik, parameteriseer. Die voorspeller veranderlikes wat in hierdie studie gebruik is, is dbh, d2h en h waarin die koëffisient van bepaling (R2), gemiddelde standaardfout (MSE) en vierkantswortel van die gemiddelde standaardfout (RMSE) gebruik is om vas te stel hoe goed die model pas. Akaike Inligting Kriteria is gebruik vir die seleksie van die gepaste model. ’n Reeks vergelykings wat bestaan uit vyf modelle is vir elke Eucalyptus spesie geformuleer. Die biomassa voorspelling model het waardes vir die koëffisiente van bepaling (R2) opgelewer wat strek van 0.65 to 0.98% en waarin dbh en d2h die hoof voorspelling veranderlikes is, terwyl h die pas van die model verbeter. Die totale biomassa model het in die meeste gevalle die beste gepas en die blaarbiomassa die swakste as dit met die ander modelle vergelyk word. Tydens droging vind die grootste persentasie verandering van 6% by stamhout plaas tussen temperature van 60ºC tot 105ºC, en die kleinste persentasie verandering van minder as 2% by blare.

This study investigated the response of the macrophytes in St Lucia Estuary, northern KwaZulu-Natal to drought. The present distribution of vegetation (2010 / 2011) was mapped and changes over time recorded from past aerial photographs. The changes in macrophyte cover in response to environmental factors (sediment and groundwater characteristics) was measured along four transects in 2010 and compared with results from previous years, in 2005 and 2006. In the current study, 1960 images were digitized to illustrate macrophyte distribution and cover of the Narrows, Makakatana and the Eastern Shores during a low rainfall period which started in 1958. The 2001 images were digitized to illustrate vegetation distribution and cover of the same area prior to the current drought which started in June/ July 2002. The 2008 images were digitized to illustrate vegetation distribution and cover of estuarine vegetation within the floodplain during the drought (after 6 years). The sites were visited in June 2011 for verification of the distribution and boundaries of each macrophyte habitat. The area covered by the water column varied over time. In 1960 during a low rainfall period the water was 32705 ha, 33320 ha in 2001 and reduced to 30443 ha in 2008. The area cover of inundated and dry reeds fluctuated with the water level. Under high water levels, low-lying areas such as Fanies Island and Selley‟s Lake were flooded and under low water levels, intertidal sand and mudflats were exposed and colonised by succulent salt marsh (Sarcocornia spp. and Salicornia meyeriana). Similar conditions were observed at Makakatana. Mangroves were observed from the mouth to the Forks. Avicennia marina was the dominant mangrove species and primary colonizer of dredge spoil. The area cover of mangroves in the vicinity of the mouth fluctuated as a result of fluctuating water levels, dredging operations, excavation of the Back Channel and Cyclone Gamede which killed intertidal vegetation. Between 2001 and 2008, mangrove expansion was faster in the Mfolozi Swamps area (± 1.4 ha yr -1) compared to the Narrows (± 0.4 ha yr -1). Long term monitoring transects were set up in 2005, at Makakatana, Charters Creek, Catalina Bay and at Listers Point to document changes in sediment conditions and vegetation cover. These were sampled in July 2005, October 2005, February 2006 and May 2010. Silt was the dominant particle size at Catalina Bay, Charters Creek and Makakatana. At Makakatana, average ground water salinity was 17.2 ± 6.6 ppt, 4.1± 4.9 ppt at Catalina Bay and 32.9 ± 19.3 ppt at Charters Creek. Drought resulted in the accumulation of salt on the surface sediment layer at Listers Point and Charters Creek due to low rainfall. Listers Point, the site with the lowest freshwater input and habitat diversity had the lowest macrophyte species richness with only three species. The dominant species at this site were Sporobolus virginicus and Chenopodium album L. which are highly salt tolerant species. Catalina Bay had the highest species richness (18 to 27); as a result of freshwater input via groundwater seepage from the sand dune aquifers on the Eastern Shores. Along the Eastern Shores, vegetation was dominated by species of Cyperaceae, Juncaceae and Juncaginaceae. Fluctuations in groundwater depth were observed at all sites, Listers Point groundwater depth in February 2006 was 80 cm and the ground water level was not reached during the May 2010 field trip. During the May 2010 field trip, the water column salinity of the St Lucia system was highly variable, Makakatana had the lowest water column salinity of 7.1 ppt, 42.1 ppt at Catalina Bay, 44 ppt at Charters Creek and Listers Point had the highest water column salinity of 95 ppt. An assessment of the changes in macrophyte cover along the transects showed that cover fluctuated in response to rainfall, water level and drought. At Listers Point, there was a continuous decline in the abundance of Sporobolus virginicus over time which was sparsely distributed in the first 40 m of the transect. Sarcocornia natalensis, a succulent and obligate halophyte, was recorded, in areas with high sediment conductivity. In May 2010, bare ground increased to an average percentage cover of 96.5% and was covered with dead organic matter and a salt crust at Listers Point. At Makakatana, there was a significant decrease in bare ground from July 2005 to May 2010 (H = 24.58, N = 197, p<0.001) as bare areas were colonized by salt marsh. Multivariate analysis showed that the abundance of Sporobolus virginicus was positively influenced by sediment moisture content and Paspalum vaginatum abundance was strongly influenced by the water column salinity. At Catalina Bay, low sediment conductivity at the groundwater seepage area resulted in terrestrial vegetation encroaching on estuarine vegetation. Sarcocornia natalensis became more abundant towards the water column. During the period of study, species richness at St Lucia ranged from 2 (Listers Point, May 2010) to 27 (Catalina Bay, February 2006). Salinity and water level fluctuation have a significant impact on the distribution of macrophytes at St Lucia during the drought. In saline areas salt marsh plants have colonized exposed shorelines and along the Eastern Shores groundwater seepage has increased macrophyte species richness. Low water levels have resulted in the exposure and desiccation of submerged macrophytes, which are replaced by macroalgae.

Includes bibliographical references.
Droughts remain a threat to grape yields in South Africa. Previous studies on the impact of climate variability on grape yield in South Africa have focussed on either the rainfall or the impact of temperature on the grape yields; meanwhile, the grape yields may be more influenced by impacts of drought (which is function of water balance) than that of rainfall or temperature. This study investigates the impact of drought on grape yields in the Western Cape. A drought index that is based on water balance (called, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index; hereafter SPEI) was used to analyse drought events at both farm and district scale (Robertson, Olifants River and Stellenbosch districts). Correlation analysis was used to identify the association between drought and grape yield. In addition, the performance of a grape yield model (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator, APSIM) in simulating the grape yield at farm scale and investigating the sensitivity of yields to drought, with and without irrigation was evaluated.

Thesis (MSc)--Stellenbosch University, 2015.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Understanding the effects of climate change is one of the cardinal issues within the natural resource management circles. Increased droughts are part of these changes. Afrotemperate forests, as well as their drier Afromontane counterparts suffer from periodic and seasonal droughts respectively. To better understand the effect of droughts on these forests, three key species namely Olea capensis (Iron wood), Podocarpus latifolius (Common Yellow wood) and Pterocelastrus tricuspidatus (Candle wood), were analysed using dendroecologic techniques. Two sites in the Southern Cape were selected according to a West-to-East moisture gradient, with the drier site being close to George and the medium moist site at the Diepwalle estate in the vicinity of Knysna. Growth ring measurements from each of the species were used to calculate basal area and basal area increment during the lifetime of the trees. Drought years for the sites were then selected based on the Standardised Precipitation and Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), also indicated by the growth during the drought periods. Differences in growth patterns for all three species were observed. An event analysis was then used to quantify the difference in the resistance (Rt), recovery (Rc), resilience (Rs) and relative resilience (RRs). With values standardised around one (Rt, Rc and Rs) and zero (RRs), it was seen that the Candle wood had the highest (~0.92) resistance and the Yellow wood had the highest (~1.3) recovery after the drought. Iron wood stood apart from the other two species in the sense that it only reacted negatively towards the drought one year after the event in most cases. It was concluded that each of the species were significantly different in their reactions towards drought. This specific difference in drought reaction can give way to the possibility that the species together adapted to relieve the stress of a short drought by splitting the available resources over a longer period.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Dit is van uiterse belang vir bestuur doeleindes om die veranderende klimaat oor die wêreld te verstaan, insluitend die droogtes wat daarmee gepaard gaan. Die Afrotemperate woud-tipe, asook sy droeër teenstaander, die Afromontane, lei gereeld aan sporadiese en seisonale droogtes. Om hierdie woud-tipe se reaksie tot droogtes beter te verstaan, was drie boom spesies naamlik Ysterhout (Olea capensis), Kershout (Pterocelastrus tricuspidatus) en gewone Geelhout (Podocarpus latifolius), gekies vir die gebruik in ‘n dendro-ekologiese studie. Twee areas was gekies van ‘n wes-tot-oos droogte gradient, met die droeër blok in die George omgewing en die meer vogtige een naby aan Knysna. Die jaarring metings van elke boom was gebruik om beide die basale oppervlakte en die basale oppervlak groei per jaar aan te teken. ‘n Gestandardiseerde reenval en evapotranspirasie indeks (SPEI) was gebruik om vas te stel jare waarin matige tot sterk droogtes gebeur het. Hierdie gekose jare het aanduiding gegee dat daar wel ‘n verskil waargeneem was in die groei patrone van elke spesie gedurende die droogtes. ‘n Gebeurtenis analise is gebruik om ‘n kwantitatiewe verskil te kon sien in die weerstand (Rt), herstel (Rc), weerstandbiedendheid (Rs) en relatiewe weerstandbiedendheid (RRs). Die was waargeneem dat Kerhout die hoogste weerstand (0.92) toon, terwyl die Geelhout ‘n hoër herstel waarde (1.3) gehad het. Ysterhout het apart van die ander twee spesies gestaan in dìe dat dit eers een jaar na die droogte ‘n reaksie getoon het teenoor die droogte. Dit was dus gevind dat daar spesifieke verskil is tussen al drie van die spesies teen opsigte van stres reaksies was. Hierdie verskil kan dan wel ook moontlik aandui dat hierdie spesies en woud-tipe op so ‘n anier aangepas is dat dit die stress gedurende ‘n kort droogte versprei oor ‘n langer tydperk.

Published Article
The objective of this study was to characterize meteorological droughts in the Central Region of South Africa, Modder River Basin, C52A quaternary catchment using two popular drought indices: Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and to compare the two indices. Drought events were characterized based on their frequency, duration, magnitude and intensity. The indices were computed for the time-scales that are important for planning and management of water resources, i.e. 3-, 6- and 12-month time-scales. The basic meteorological input data used in the computation of these indices were 57 years (1950-2007) of monthly precipitation and monthly temperature data which were recorded at The Cliff weather station in the quaternary catchment. It was found that both SPI and SPEI responded to drought events in similar fashion in all time-scales. During the analysis period, a total of 37, 26 and 17 drought events were identified in the area based on 3-, 6-, and 12-month times-scales, respectively. Considering event magnitude as severity parameter, results from both indices identified the periods 1984-1985, 1992-1993 and 2003-2005 as the severest drought periods in the area. However, when the effects of both drought duration and magnitude are considered (drought intensity), the most severest drought events were identified during the years 1982/83, 1966 and 1973 based on 3-, 6- and 12-month timescales, respectively. It was concluded that although the SPEI generally exhibits veracity over SPI by including, apart from precipitation, additional meteorological parameter, mean temperature, SPI should be adopted as an appropriate drought monitoring tool in an area, like Africa, where meteorological data are scarce.

Pastoralists in Africa have developed complex mechanisms by which they can alleviate the threat of drought. They practice mobility as one of the strategies to avoid the worst effects of natural stress and disperse grazing pressure. In the past in South Africa, the indigenous Nama people occupied large areas of land and moved around extensively to exploit seasonal differences in the availability of forage and water. With the settlement of the Europeans in the Cape the indigenous people lost most of their land to the colonists. The Nama people were, therefore, restricted to smaller rangelands and their patterns of rangeland use had to adapt to the spatial constraints. Descendants now herd livestock from semi-permanent stockposts that are scattered throughout the commons. Herders use a range of practices to manage their livestock. The aims of this study was to assess the agro-ecological knowledge of livestock keepers
assess the condition of the rangeland during drought
determine the herding strategies of herders during drought.

The Western Cape Province in South Africa recently experienced below-average rainfall during the period 2015−2017, this resulted in a three-year compound hydro-meteorological drought event in the Province. The 2015−2017 Western Cape hydro-meteorological drought was the worst drought event since 1904 and caused severe unprecedented water shortages throughout the Western Cape region, with many municipal water supply systems close to failure by the first quarter of 2018; most especially the Western Cape Water Supply System that serves Cape Town. The drought gained a lot of interest from the public, media and climate scientists alike. The main aim of this study was to assess the extent to which human influence on climate from fossil fuel emissions has changed the likelihood of a hydrometeorological drought event with the magnitude of that experienced in 2015−2017 in the SouthWestern Cape. The Pitman hydrological model was set up for the Berg River catchment in a way that enabled multiple simulations with different rainfall inputs so that attribution experiments could be undertaken. The key differences to the standard Pitman model set up included: (i) constant abstractions, return flows, and land use conditions; (ii) reservoir and dam storages were set to reflect current storage volumes; and (iii) extending the observed rainfall inputs to include the drought period. A hydrological model evaluation was then undertaken, using updated streamflow gauging station data, to assess the ability of the Pitman model to realistically simulate runoff in the Berg River catchment. The model was deemed suitable for the purposes of this study in simulating runoff. To generate the climate attribution experiments, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 historical simulations (1861−2010) were merged with the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 greenhouse gas scenario simulations (2011−2100) of rainfall from 77 simulations From 42 models to create a long-term (150 years) time series. Attribution experiments were constructed by considering the average conditions in the 31 year period centred on the years of the event, i.e. 2002−2031 to represent current climate conditions and the period 1861−1890 to represent pre-industrial climate conditions. Five 150-year long stochastic time series of rainfall for each individual simulation were then generated conditioned on observed rainfall characteristics this was done to increase the sample size of the models available. These stochastic rainfall time series were then used as input to the Pitman model to generate outputs/realisations of runoff for a pre-industrial and current world; thus generating impact attribution experiments. To determine the role of anthropogenic climate change on the 2015−2017 hydro-meteorological drought in the South-Western Cape the risk-based approach was applied to the rainfall and runoff attribution outputs. The 2015−2017 meteorological/hydrological drought event was defined in terms of three-year mean annual rainfall/runoff received in the Berg River catchment and its individual 12 quaternary catchments. This event definition was used as a rainfall/runoff threshold in the attribution analysis for the 2015−2017 meteorological/hydrological drought in the South-Western Cape. The three-year minimum averages of rainfall/runoff were identified in each of the 150-yearstochastic time series generated from the 77 simulations; resulting in 385 values for both current and pre-industrial climates for rainfall and runoff. A normal distribution was then fitted to the 385 values of the current and pre-industrial rainfall/runoff. From this distribution, the probability of the current rainfall/runoff occurring, based on the defined threshold, was identified and compared to the pre-industrial time series to calculate the risk ratios of the Berg River catchment and its 12 quaternary catchments. Results show that the risk of the meteorological drought event occurring in the Berg River catchment was increased by a factor of 28.5, 95% confidence interval: 26.0−32.4, (but ranged from 11.5−41.0 in the individual quaternary catchments) due to anthropogenic climate change. The occurrence of the hydrological drought event in the Berg River catchment was found to be increased by a factor of 12.9, 95% confidence interval: 11.3−13.5 (2.7−61.0 in the quaternary catchments) due to anthropogenic climate change. The risk ratio for runoff was higher than for rainfall in the wetter southern quaternary catchments, while it was lower than for rainfall in the drier more northern quaternary catchments. Thus, the human influence on meteorological drought appears to have been amplified in those catchments most important to the Western Cape Water Supply System.

Droughts occurred over South Africa during the summer seasons of 2014/2015 and 2015/2016. At the same time, the Pacific Ocean was warmer than normal starting in 2014 and leading to the very strong 2015/2016 El Niño. The first objective of this study is to document the ocean and climate conditions that occurred during the summer seasons 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 in southern Africa. NCEP Reanalysis data is used to compute the monthly and seasonal scale composite mean and anomalies of large-scale circulations during the summer seasons of 2014/2015 and 2015/2016. Results obtained from the study suggest that some months of 2014/2015 and 2015/2016 were canonical to the effect of El Niño over southern Africa, but not all of them during the summer seasons were dry. The wetter than normal conditions in northeast South Africa, Botswana and Zimbabwe during December 2014 are unfamiliar for a canonical summer El Niño event over southern Africa. Anomalous cooler than normal Sea Surface Temperature (SST) occurred over the west coast and south coast during December 2014 and February 2015, while it is usually warmer during El Niño. Additionally, the colder than normal SST at the south coast during February 2016 and Namibian and West Coast during March 2016 does not mimic the canonical El Niño patterns. However, this did not influence the El Niño-like warmer seasonal SST average during 2015/2016. The lower than normal pressure anomalies over the subcontinent during December 2014 and January 2015 were not portraying a canonical El Niño pattern but the other months were. The seasonal larger than normal pressure at 500 hPa over the subcontinent was more typical of El Niño during summer 2015/2016 and acted to suppress rainfall. Secondly, the study uses the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) at different time scales (3 months duration, 5 months duration and 17 months duration) to assess the severity of 2015/2016 summer drought compared to the other droughts of the 20th and 21st century (1921 to 2016) and to analyse the relationship between droughts and ENSO. The South African Weather Service (SAWS) rainfall data shows that KwaZulu-Natal was the only region within South Africa, to have the 2015/2016 as the strongest summer drought since 1921 but 2015/2016 was still one of the worst droughts on record in South Africa, especially at the 2 consecutive seasonal scales. In general, droughts are favored by El Niño and wetter conditions by La Niña, but the second strongest El Niño of 1997/1998 led to near normal rainfall over the north-eastern region at all time-scales. The SPI has proven to be very versatile, flexible and very effective to monitor the 2015/2016 summer drought in the complex South African rainfall regime. However, there was little difference between 3 months SPI at the end of February and 5 months SPI at the end of March. For South Africa, the summer rainfall 2015/2016 season had the fifth worst drought after El Niño related drought of 1982/1983 and 1991/1992 and the non-El Niño related droughts of 1967/1968 and 1944/1945. At the 17-month scale, an index that encompasses two summer seasons 2015/2016 was the third worst drought since summer 1921/1922 due to dry conditions in 2014/2015 and 2015/2016.

Thesis (MSc (Forest and Wood Science))--University of Stellenbosch, 2011.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study investigated the use of carbon isotopes as a potential measure for water availability and drought stress in Pinus radiata in the Western and Southern Cape, South Africa. An understanding of water availability and its variation in space is fundamental to the implementation of increasingly site-specific management regimes that have the potential to greatly improve productivity across sites in the region. Fifteen plantation compartments situated on water shedding sites were identified where good weather data existed and a water balance model could be run. In addition, late wood samples were analysed from four co-dominant trees in the same stand to determine the δ13C values of five tree rings, each representing a specific growth year before first thinning. Detailed water balances were constructed for each trial site and drought stress indicators (a) relative canopy conductance (after Granier et al., 2000) and (b) the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration (supply / demand ratio), were related to δ13C values in latewood. Maximum available soil water ranged from 52 to 313 mm across trial sites. The water balance model used adequately described soil water availability throughout each growing season and indicated that stand stress due to the lack of available soil water mainly occurred during the summer months of the study period (November to April). The supply / demand ratio for this period as well as the relative canopy conductance proved to be good measures of drought stress. The six-month supply demand ratio (calculated for the period November to April) ranged from 0.04 to nearly 1 (winter rainfall zone) and 0.35 to 1 (all-year rainfall zone) and were strongly related to δ13C values (p < 0.001; r2 = 0.7822). It appears that using δ13C values, it may be possible to classify sites into three water availability classes. This classification may assist in the implementation of intensive silvicultural operations on an increasingly site-specific basis. Where sites are enriched with water from lateral flow or upslope positions, δ13C may be the only reliable technique to quantify soil water availability.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie ondersoek die gebruik van koolstof isotope as 'n moontlike maatstaf vir die beskikbaarheid van water en droogtestremming in Pinus radiata in die Wes-en Suid-Kaap, Suid-Afrika. 'n Begrip van die beskikbaarheid van water en die ruimtelike variasie daarvan is fundamenteel vir die implementering van groeiplek-spesifieke bestuur sisteem wat die potensiaal het om baie verbeterde produktiwiteit oor persele in die streek teweeg te bring. Vyftien plantasievakke, geleë op waterskeidingsterreine is geïdentifiseer waar goeie weer data bestaan en 'n water balans model uitgevoer kon word. Daarmee saam is laathout monsters vanuit vier ko-dominante bome in dieselfde kompartement geanaliseer en die δ13C waardes van laathout in vyf jaarringe bepaal wat elk 'n spesifieke jaar van groei voor die eerste dunning verteenwoordig. Gedetailleerde water balanse is vir elke proef perseel bereken en aanwysers van droogtestremming, nl.: (a) relatiewe kroon geleiding (na Granier et al., 2000) en (b) die verhouding van die werklike teenoor potensiële evapotranspirasie (vraag / aanbod verhouding) is gekorreleer met 13C waardes in laat hout. Die maksimum hoeveelheid water beskikbaar op die verskeie proefpersele wissel van 52 tot 313 mm. Die water balans model wat gebruik is beskryf die beskikbare grondwater met genoegsame akkuraatheid. vir die hele groeiseisoen. Die model dui ook aan dat die kompartemente droogtestremming as gevolg van die gebrek aan beskikbare grond water ervaar gedurende die somer maande van die studie tydperk (November tot April). Die vraag / aanbod verhouding vir hierdie tydperk, asook die relatiewe kroon geleiding is geskik om as maatstawwe van droogtestremming gebruik te word. Die vraag / aanbod verhouding (bereken vir die tydperk November tot April) het gewissel van 0,04 tot byna 1 (Winter reënval gebied) en 0,35 tot 1 (die heel jaar reënval sone) en is sterk verwant aan 13C waardes (p <0,001; r2 = 0,7822). Dit blyk dat met die gebruik van δ13C waardes, dit moontlik kan wees om kompartemente te klassifiseer in drie klasse van water beskikbaarheid. Hierdie klassifikasie kan help met die implementering van intensiewe boskultuur bedrywighede op 'n meer vak-spesifieke basis. Waar vakkeverryk is met water vanuit laterale vloei of hoër liggende posisies, mag δ13C dalk die enigste betroubare tegniek wees om die beskikbaarheid van water te kwantifiseer.

Precipitation levels in southern Africa exhibit a marked east–west gradient and are characterized by strong seasonality and high interannual variability. Much of the mainland south of 15°S exhibits a semiarid to dry subhumid climate. More than 66 percent of rainfall in the extreme southwest of the subcontinent occurs between April and September. Rainfall in this region—termed the winter rainfall zone (WRZ)—is most commonly associated with the passage of midlatitude frontal systems embedded in the austral westerlies. In contrast, more than 66 percent of mean annual precipitation over much of the remainder of the subcontinent falls between October and March. Climates in this summer rainfall zone (SRZ) are dictated by the seasonal interplay between subtropical high-pressure systems and the migration of easterly flows associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone. Fluctuations in both SRZ and WRZ rainfall are linked to the variability of sea-surface temperatures in the oceans surrounding southern Africa and are modulated by the interplay of large-scale modes of climate variability, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Southern Indian Ocean Dipole, and Southern Annular Mode.Ideas about long-term rainfall variability in southern Africa have shifted over time. During the early to mid-19th century, the prevailing narrative was that the climate was progressively desiccating. By the late 19th to early 20th century, when gauged precipitation data became more readily available, debate shifted toward the identification of cyclical rainfall variation. The integration of gauge data, evidence from historical documents, and information from natural proxies such as tree rings during the late 20th and early 21st centuries, has allowed the nature of precipitation variability since ~1800 to be more fully explored.Drought episodes affecting large areas of the SRZ occurred during the first decade of the 19th century, in the early and late 1820s, late 1850s–mid-1860s, mid-late 1870s, earlymid-1880s, and mid-late 1890s. Of these episodes, the drought during the early 1860s was the most severe of the 19th century, with those of the 1820s and 1890s the most protracted. Many of these droughts correspond with more extreme ENSO warm phases.Widespread wetter conditions are less easily identified. The year 1816 appears to have been relatively wet across the Kalahari and other areas of south central Africa. Other wetter episodes were centered on the late 1830s–early 1840s, 1855, 1870, and 1890. In the WRZ, drier conditions occurred during the first decade of the 19th century, for much of the mid-late 1830s through to the mid-1840s, during the late 1850s and early 1860s, and in the early-mid-1880s and mid-late 1890s. As for the SRZ, markedly wetter years are less easily identified, although the periods around 1815, the early 1830s, mid-1840s, mid-late 1870s, and early 1890s saw enhanced rainfall. Reconstructed rainfall anomalies for the SRZ suggest that, on average, the region was significantly wetter during the 19th century than the 20th and that there appears to have been a drying trend during the 20th century that has continued into the early 21st. In the WRZ, average annual rainfall levels appear to have been relatively consistent between the 19th and 20th centuries, although rainfall variability increased during the 20th century compared to the 19th.

The El Niño Modoki/La Niña Modoki (ENSO Modoki) is a newly acknowledged face of ocean-atmosphere coupled variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The oceanic and atmospheric conditions associated with the El Niño Modoki are different from that of canonical El Niño, which is extensively studied for its dynamics and worldwide impacts. A typical El Niño event is marked by a warm anomaly of sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial eastern Pacific. Because of the associated changes in the surface winds and the weakening of coastal upwelling, the coasts of South America suffer from widespread fish mortality during the event. Quite opposite of this characteristic change in the ocean condition, cold SST anomalies prevail in the eastern equatorial Pacific during the El Niño Modoki events, but with the warm anomalies intensified in the central Pacific. The boreal winter condition of 2004 is a typical example of such an event, when a tripole pattern is noticed in the SST anomalies; warm central Pacific flanked by cold eastern and western regions. The SST anomalies are coupled to a double cell in anomalous Walker circulation with rising motion in the central parts and sinking motion on both sides of the basin. This is again a different feature compared to the well-known single-cell anomalous Walker circulation during El Niños. La Niña Modoki is the opposite phase of the El Niño Modoki, when a cold central Pacific is flanked by warm anomalies on both sides.The Modoki events are seen to peak in both boreal summer and winter and hence are not seasonally phase-locked to a single seasonal cycle like El Niño/La Niña events. Because of this distinction in the seasonality, the teleconnection arising from these events will vary between the seasons as teleconnection path will vary depending on the prevailing seasonal mean conditions in the atmosphere. Moreover, the Modoki El Niño/La Niña impacts over regions such as the western coast of the United States, the Far East including Japan, Australia, and southern Africa, etc., are opposite to those of the canonical El Niño/La Niña. For example, the western coasts of the United States suffer from severe droughts during El Niño Modoki, whereas those regions are quite wet during El Niño. The influences of Modoki events are also seen in tropical cyclogenesis, stratosphere warming of the Southern Hemisphere, ocean primary productivity, river discharges, sea level variations, etc. A remarkable feature associated with Modoki events is the decadal flattening of the equatorial thermocline and weakening of zonal thermal gradient. The associated ocean-atmosphere conditions have caused frequent and persistent developments of Modoki events in recent decades.

Nationalism: Past as Prologue began as a single volume being compiled by Ad Akande, a scholar from South Africa, who proposed it to me as co-author about two years ago. The original idea was to examine how the damaging roots of nationalism have been corroding political systems around the world, and creating dangerous obstacles for necessary international cooperation. Since I (Bruce E. Johansen) has written profusely about climate change (global warming, a.k.a. infrared forcing), I suggested a concerted effort in that direction. This is a worldwide existential threat that affects every living thing on Earth. It often compounds upon itself, so delays in reducing emissions of fossil fuels are shortening the amount of time remaining to eliminate the use of fossil fuels to preserve a livable planet. Nationalism often impedes solutions to this problem (among many others), as nations place their singular needs above the common good. Our initial proposal got around, and abstracts on many subjects arrived. Within a few weeks, we had enough good material for a 100,000-word book. The book then fattened to two moderate volumes and then to four two very hefty tomes. We tried several different titles as good submissions swelled. We also discovered that our best contributors were experts in their fields, which ranged the world. We settled on three stand-alone books:” 1/ nationalism and racial justice. Our first volume grew as the growth of Black Lives Matter following the brutal killing of George Floyd ignited protests over police brutality and other issues during 2020, following the police assassination of Floyd in Minneapolis. It is estimated that more people took part in protests of police brutality during the summer of 2020 than any other series of marches in United States history. This includes upheavals during the 1960s over racial issues and against the war in Southeast Asia (notably Vietnam). We choose a volume on racism because it is one of nationalism’s main motive forces. This volume provides a worldwide array of work on nationalism’s growth in various countries, usually by authors residing in them, or in the United States with ethnic ties to the nation being examined, often recent immigrants to the United States from them. Our roster of contributors comprises a small United Nations of insightful, well-written research and commentary from Indonesia, New Zealand, Australia, China, India, South Africa, France, Portugal, Estonia, Hungary, Russia, Poland, Kazakhstan, Georgia, and the United States. Volume 2 (this one) describes and analyzes nationalism, by country, around the world, except for the United States; and 3/material directly related to President Donald Trump, and the United States. The first volume is under consideration at the Texas A & M University Press. The other two are under contract to Nova Science Publishers (which includes social sciences). These three volumes may be used individually or as a set. Environmental material is taken up in appropriate places in each of the three books. * * * * * What became the United States of America has been strongly nationalist since the English of present-day Massachusetts and Jamestown first hit North America’s eastern shores. The country propelled itself across North America with the self-serving ideology of “manifest destiny” for four centuries before Donald Trump came along. Anyone who believes that a Trumpian affection for deportation of “illegals” is a new thing ought to take a look at immigration and deportation statistics in Adam Goodman’s The Deportation Machine: America’s Long History of Deporting Immigrants (Princeton University Press, 2020). Between 1920 and 2018, the United States deported 56.3 million people, compared with 51.7 million who were granted legal immigration status during the same dates. Nearly nine of ten deportees were Mexican (Nolan, 2020, 83). This kind of nationalism, has become an assassin of democracy as well as an impediment to solving global problems. Paul Krugman wrote in the New York Times (2019:A-25): that “In their 2018 book, How Democracies Die, the political scientists Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt documented how this process has played out in many countries, from Vladimir Putin’s Russia, to Recep Erdogan’s Turkey, to Viktor Orban’s Hungary. Add to these India’s Narendra Modi, China’s Xi Jinping, and the United States’ Donald Trump, among others. Bit by bit, the guardrails of democracy have been torn down, as institutions meant to serve the public became tools of ruling parties and self-serving ideologies, weaponized to punish and intimidate opposition parties’ opponents. On paper, these countries are still democracies; in practice, they have become one-party regimes….And it’s happening here [the United States] as we speak. If you are not worried about the future of American democracy, you aren’t paying attention” (Krugmam, 2019, A-25). We are reminded continuously that the late Carl Sagan, one of our most insightful scientific public intellectuals, had an interesting theory about highly developed civilizations. Given the number of stars and planets that must exist in the vast reaches of the universe, he said, there must be other highly developed and organized forms of life. Distance may keep us from making physical contact, but Sagan said that another reason we may never be on speaking terms with another intelligent race is (judging from our own example) could be their penchant for destroying themselves in relatively short order after reaching technological complexity. This book’s chapters, introduction, and conclusion examine the worldwide rise of partisan nationalism and the damage it has wrought on the worldwide pursuit of solutions for issues requiring worldwide scope, such scientific co-operation public health and others, mixing analysis of both. We use both historical description and analysis. This analysis concludes with a description of why we must avoid the isolating nature of nationalism that isolates people and encourages separation if we are to deal with issues of world-wide concern, and to maintain a sustainable, survivable Earth, placing the dominant political movement of our time against the Earth’s existential crises. Our contributors, all experts in their fields, each have assumed responsibility for a country, or two if they are related. This work entwines themes of worldwide concern with the political growth of nationalism because leaders with such a worldview are disinclined to co-operate internationally at a time when nations must find ways to solve common problems, such as the climate crisis. Inability to cooperate at this stage may doom everyone, eventually, to an overheated, stormy future plagued by droughts and deluges portending shortages of food and other essential commodities, meanwhile destroying large coastal urban areas because of rising sea levels. Future historians may look back at our time and wonder why as well as how our world succumbed to isolating nationalism at a time when time was so short for cooperative intervention which is crucial for survival of a sustainable earth. Pride in language and culture is salubrious to individuals’ sense of history and identity. Excess nationalism that prevents international co-operation on harmful worldwide maladies is quite another. As Pope Francis has pointed out: For all of our connectivity due to expansion of social media, ability to communicate can breed contempt as well as mutual trust. “For all our hyper-connectivity,” said Francis, “We witnessed a fragmentation that made it more difficult to resolve problems that affect us all” (Horowitz, 2020, A-12). The pope’s encyclical, titled “Brothers All,” also said: “The forces of myopic, extremist, resentful, and aggressive nationalism are on the rise.” The pope’s document also advocates support for migrants, as well as resistance to nationalist and tribal populism. Francis broadened his critique to the role of market capitalism, as well as nationalism has failed the peoples of the world when they need co-operation and solidarity in the face of the world-wide corona virus pandemic. Humankind needs to unite into “a new sense of the human family [Fratelli Tutti, “Brothers All”], that rejects war at all costs” (Pope, 2020, 6-A). Our journey takes us first to Russia, with the able eye and honed expertise of Richard D. Anderson, Jr. who teaches as UCLA and publishes on the subject of his chapter: “Putin, Russian identity, and Russia’s conduct at home and abroad.” Readers should find Dr. Anderson’s analysis fascinating because Vladimir Putin, the singular leader of Russian foreign and domestic policy these days (and perhaps for the rest of his life, given how malleable Russia’s Constitution has become) may be a short man physically, but has high ambitions. One of these involves restoring the old Russian (and Soviet) empire, which would involve re-subjugating a number of nations that broke off as the old order dissolved about 30 years ago. President (shall we say czar?) Putin also has international ambitions, notably by destabilizing the United States, where election meddling has become a specialty. The sight of Putin and U.S. president Donald Trump, two very rich men (Putin $70-$200 billion; Trump $2.5 billion), nuzzling in friendship would probably set Thomas Jefferson and Vladimir Lenin spinning in their graves. The road of history can take some unanticipated twists and turns. Consider Poland, from which we have an expert native analysis in chapter 2, Bartosz Hlebowicz, who is a Polish anthropologist and journalist. His piece is titled “Lawless and Unjust: How to Quickly Make Your Own Country a Puppet State Run by a Group of Hoodlums – the Hopeless Case of Poland (2015–2020).” When I visited Poland to teach and lecture twice between 2006 and 2008, most people seemed to be walking on air induced by freedom to conduct their own affairs to an unusual degree for a state usually squeezed between nationalists in Germany and Russia. What did the Poles then do in a couple of decades? Read Hlebowicz’ chapter and decide. It certainly isn’t soft-bellied liberalism. In Chapter 3, with Bruce E. Johansen, we visit China’s western provinces, the lands of Tibet as well as the Uighurs and other Muslims in the Xinjiang region, who would most assuredly resent being characterized as being possessed by the Chinese of the Han to the east. As a student of Native American history, I had never before thought of the Tibetans and Uighurs as Native peoples struggling against the Independence-minded peoples of a land that is called an adjunct of China on most of our maps. The random act of sitting next to a young woman on an Air India flight out of Hyderabad, bound for New Delhi taught me that the Tibetans had something to share with the Lakota, the Iroquois, and hundreds of other Native American states and nations in North America. Active resistance to Chinese rule lasted into the mid-nineteenth century, and continues today in a subversive manner, even in song, as I learned in 2018 when I acted as a foreign adjudicator on a Ph.D. dissertation by a Tibetan student at the University of Madras (in what is now in a city called Chennai), in southwestern India on resistance in song during Tibet’s recent history. Tibet is one of very few places on Earth where a young dissident can get shot to death for singing a song that troubles China’s Quest for Lebensraum. The situation in Xinjiang region, where close to a million Muslims have been interned in “reeducation” camps surrounded with brick walls and barbed wire. They sing, too. Come with us and hear the music. Back to Europe now, in Chapter 4, to Portugal and Spain, we find a break in the general pattern of nationalism. Portugal has been more progressive governmentally than most. Spain varies from a liberal majority to military coups, a pattern which has been exported to Latin America. A situation such as this can make use of the term “populism” problematic, because general usage in our time usually ties the word into a right-wing connotative straightjacket. “Populism” can be used to describe progressive (left-wing) insurgencies as well. José Pinto, who is native to Portugal and also researches and writes in Spanish as well as English, in “Populism in Portugal and Spain: a Real Neighbourhood?” provides insight into these historical paradoxes. Hungary shares some historical inclinations with Poland (above). Both emerged from Soviet dominance in an air of developing freedom and multicultural diversity after the Berlin Wall fell and the Soviet Union collapsed. Then, gradually at first, right wing-forces began to tighten up, stripping structures supporting popular freedom, from the courts, mass media, and other institutions. In Chapter 5, Bernard Tamas, in “From Youth Movement to Right-Liberal Wing Authoritarianism: The Rise of Fidesz and the Decline of Hungarian Democracy” puts the renewed growth of political and social repression into a context of worldwide nationalism. Tamas, an associate professor of political science at Valdosta State University, has been a postdoctoral fellow at Harvard University and a Fulbright scholar at the Central European University in Budapest, Hungary. His books include From Dissident to Party Politics: The Struggle for Democracy in Post-Communist Hungary (2007). Bear in mind that not everyone shares Orbán’s vision of what will make this nation great, again. On graffiti-covered walls in Budapest, Runes (traditional Hungarian script) has been found that read “Orbán is a motherfucker” (Mikanowski, 2019, 58). Also in Europe, in Chapter 6, Professor Ronan Le Coadic, of the University of Rennes, Rennes, France, in “Is There a Revival of French Nationalism?” Stating this title in the form of a question is quite appropriate because France’s nationalistic shift has built and ebbed several times during the last few decades. For a time after 2000, it came close to assuming the role of a substantial minority, only to ebb after that. In 2017, the candidate of the National Front reached the second round of the French presidential election. This was the second time this nationalist party reached the second round of the presidential election in the history of the Fifth Republic. In 2002, however, Jean-Marie Le Pen had only obtained 17.79% of the votes, while fifteen years later his daughter, Marine Le Pen, almost doubled her father's record, reaching 33.90% of the votes cast. Moreover, in the 2019 European elections, re-named Rassemblement National obtained the largest number of votes of all French political formations and can therefore boast of being "the leading party in France.” The brutality of oppressive nationalism may be expressed in personal relationships, such as child abuse. While Indonesia and Aotearoa [the Maoris’ name for New Zealand] hold very different ranks in the United Nations Human Development Programme assessments, where Indonesia is classified as a medium development country and Aotearoa New Zealand as a very high development country. In Chapter 7, “Domestic Violence Against Women in Indonesia and Aotearoa New Zealand: Making Sense of Differences and Similarities” co-authors, in Chapter 8, Mandy Morgan and Dr. Elli N. Hayati, from New Zealand and Indonesia respectively, found that despite their socio-economic differences, one in three women in each country experience physical or sexual intimate partner violence over their lifetime. In this chapter ther authors aim to deepen understandings of domestic violence through discussion of the socio-economic and demographic characteristics of theit countries to address domestic violence alongside studies of women’s attitudes to gender norms and experiences of intimate partner violence. One of the most surprising and upsetting scholarly journeys that a North American student may take involves Adolf Hitler’s comments on oppression of American Indians and Blacks as he imagined the construction of the Nazi state, a genesis of nationalism that is all but unknown in the United States of America, traced in this volume (Chapter 8) by co-editor Johansen. Beginning in Mein Kampf, during the 1920s, Hitler explicitly used the westward expansion of the United States across North America as a model and justification for Nazi conquest and anticipated colonization by Germans of what the Nazis called the “wild East” – the Slavic nations of Poland, the Baltic states, Ukraine, and Russia, most of which were under control of the Soviet Union. The Volga River (in Russia) was styled by Hitler as the Germans’ Mississippi, and covered wagons were readied for the German “manifest destiny” of imprisoning, eradicating, and replacing peoples the Nazis deemed inferior, all with direct references to events in North America during the previous century. At the same time, with no sense of contradiction, the Nazis partook of a long-standing German romanticism of Native Americans. One of Goebbels’ less propitious schemes was to confer honorary Aryan status on Native American tribes, in the hope that they would rise up against their oppressors. U.S. racial attitudes were “evidence [to the Nazis] that America was evolving in the right direction, despite its specious rhetoric about equality.” Ming Xie, originally from Beijing, in the People’s Republic of China, in Chapter 9, “News Coverage and Public Perceptions of the Social Credit System in China,” writes that The State Council of China in 2014 announced “that a nationwide social credit system would be established” in China. “Under this system, individuals, private companies, social organizations, and governmental agencies are assigned a score which will be calculated based on their trustworthiness and daily actions such as transaction history, professional conduct, obedience to law, corruption, tax evasion, and academic plagiarism.” The “nationalism” in this case is that of the state over the individual. China has 1.4 billion people; this system takes their measure for the purpose of state control. Once fully operational, control will be more subtle. People who are subject to it, through modern technology (most often smart phones) will prompt many people to self-censor. Orwell, modernized, might write: “Your smart phone is watching you.” Ming Xie holds two Ph.Ds, one in Public Administration from University of Nebraska at Omaha and another in Cultural Anthropology from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Beijing, where she also worked for more than 10 years at a national think tank in the same institution. While there she summarized news from non-Chinese sources for senior members of the Chinese Communist Party. Ming is presently an assistant professor at the Department of Political Science and Criminal Justice, West Texas A&M University. In Chapter 10, analyzing native peoples and nationhood, Barbara Alice Mann, Professor of Honours at the University of Toledo, in “Divide, et Impera: The Self-Genocide Game” details ways in which European-American invaders deprive the conquered of their sense of nationhood as part of a subjugation system that amounts to genocide, rubbing out their languages and cultures -- and ultimately forcing the native peoples to assimilate on their own, for survival in a culture that is foreign to them. Mann is one of Native American Studies’ most acute critics of conquests’ contradictions, and an author who retrieves Native history with a powerful sense of voice and purpose, having authored roughly a dozen books and numerous book chapters, among many other works, who has traveled around the world lecturing and publishing on many subjects. Nalanda Roy and S. Mae Pedron in Chapter 11, “Understanding the Face of Humanity: The Rohingya Genocide.” describe one of the largest forced migrations in the history of the human race, the removal of 700,000 to 800,000 Muslims from Buddhist Myanmar to Bangladesh, which itself is already one of the most crowded and impoverished nations on Earth. With about 150 million people packed into an area the size of Nebraska and Iowa (population less than a tenth that of Bangladesh, a country that is losing land steadily to rising sea levels and erosion of the Ganges river delta. The Rohingyas’ refugee camp has been squeezed onto a gigantic, eroding, muddy slope that contains nearly no vegetation. However, Bangladesh is majority Muslim, so while the Rohingya may starve, they won’t be shot to death by marauding armies. Both authors of this exquisite (and excruciating) account teach at Georgia Southern University in Savannah, Georgia, Roy as an associate professor of International Studies and Asian politics, and Pedron as a graduate student; Roy originally hails from very eastern India, close to both Myanmar and Bangladesh, so he has special insight into the context of one of the most brutal genocides of our time, or any other. This is our case describing the problems that nationalism has and will pose for the sustainability of the Earth as our little blue-and-green orb becomes more crowded over time. The old ways, in which national arguments often end in devastating wars, are obsolete, given that the Earth and all the people, plants, and other animals that it sustains are faced with the existential threat of a climate crisis that within two centuries, more or less, will flood large parts of coastal cities, and endanger many species of plants and animals. To survive, we must listen to the Earth, and observe her travails, because they are increasingly our own.

AbstractClimate change impacts a natural and human system on the entire globe. Climate-related extreme weather such as drought, floods, and heat waves alters the ecosystems that society depends on. Climate, land, energy, and water systems (CLEWS) are a critical aspect of high importance on resource availability, distribution, and interconnection. The nexus provides a set of guidelines to South Africa that aims on creating a level playing field for all sectors while achieving the aims of the SDGs that are cross-sectoral and multilevel approaches to climate change. The nexus expressed three domains that included resources, governance, and security. It integrated a smart climate resilient with inclusion of the governance and involvement of the stakeholders. Recognition of spatial and sector interdependencies should inform policies, investment and institutional for enhancing nexus security and climate change towards making transition green carbon deals. The nexus offers an integrated approach that analyzes the trade-offs and synergies between the different sectors in order to maximize the efficiency of using the resources that adapt institutional and optimum policy arrangements. Economic transformation and creation of employment through green economy is one of the COP26 green deal agendas in curbing the carbon emissions (green house emission, industrial processes, fuel combustion, and fugitive emissions) as mitigation to climate change, which is cost-effective and economically efficient. The future climate change policy in the developing countries is likely to be both promoted by climate technology transfer and public-private cooperation (cross-sector partnership) through the technology mechanism of the nexus and inclusion of the gender.

AbstractThe vulnerability of the climate change in the South of the Mediterranean’s south regions varies depending on the part of their climate which is sensitive to the economy. In Tunisia, agriculture represents 16% of the workforce and 12% of GDP in 2006. In Algeria, agriculture represents 20% of the workforce and 8% of GDP in 2009. In Morocco, agriculture accounts for 40% of the workforce and 17.7% of GDP in 2006. The agriculture is directly related to the availability of water which in turn is directly related to rainfall. The drought has affected all countries of the Maghreb. It is considered the most severe in the history of these countries. The drought has forced the agricultural sector in Morocco to the limitation of annual crops which are not needed, the prohibition of any new tree planting and the ban on vegetable crops in dry years. During the years 1987, 1988, and 1989, Tunisia has experienced the most critical drought. It led to a water deficit of around 30%. For Morocco the rainfall shows a negative trend at national and regional scales, and spring rainfall has declined by over 40% since the 1960s. For Algeria, the western region has recorded a considerable reduction in rainfall. The winter rains have decreased between 40% and 70%. Contributions to dams have decreased between 30% and 50%. These changes had a negative influence on the water resource and crop yield. Many programs have been initiated since then to meet the growing demand.

AbstractThe vulnerability of the climate change in the South of the Mediterranean’s south regions varies depending on the part of their climate which is sensitive to the economy. In Tunisia, agriculture represents 16% of the workforce and 12% of GDP in 2006. In Algeria, agriculture represents 20% of the workforce and 8% of GDP in 2009. In Morocco, agriculture accounts for 40% of the workforce and 17.7% of GDP in 2006. The agriculture is directly related to the availability of water which in turn is directly related to rainfall. The drought has affected all countries of the Maghreb. It is considered the most severe in the history of these countries. The drought has forced the agricultural sector in Morocco to the limitation of annual crops which are not needed, the prohibition of any new tree planting and the ban on vegetable crops in dry years. During the years 1987, 1988, and 1989, Tunisia has experienced the most critical drought. It led to a water deficit of around 30%. For Morocco the rainfall shows a negative trend at national and regional scales, and spring rainfall has declined by over 40% since the 1960s. For Algeria, the western region has recorded a considerable reduction in rainfall. The winter rains have decreased between 40% and 70%. Contributions to dams have decreased between 30% and 50%. These changes had a negative influence on the water resource and crop yield. Many programs have been initiated since then to meet the growing demand.

Surface tension and solution evaporation of aqueous solutions of sodium lauryl sulfate (SLS), ECOSURF™ EH-14, and ECOSURF™ SA-9 under natural convection is examined through experimental methods. SLS is an anionic surfactant while EH-14 and SA-9 are environmentally-friendly nonionic surfactants. Surfactants are known to affect evaporation performance of solutions and are studied in relation to water loss prevention and heat dissipation. Surfactants could be useful under drought conditions which present challenges to water management on a yearly basis in arid areas of the world. Recent water scarcity in the greater Los Angeles area, south eastern Africa nations, eastern Australia and eastern Mediterranean countries has high cost of water loss by evaporation. Surfactants are studied as a potential method of suppressing evaporation in water reservoirs. Surfactants are also studied as performance enhancers for the working fluid of heat dissipation devices, such as pulsating heat pipes used for electronics cooling. Some surfactants have been shown to lower thermal resistances and friction pressure in such devices and thereby increase their efficiency. The static surface tensions of the aqueous-surfactant solutions are measured with surface tensiometer using Wilhelmy plate method. The surfactants are shown to lower surface tension significantly from pure water. The surface tension values found at the Critical Micelle Concentration are 33.8 mN/m for SLS, 30.3 mN/m for EH-14, and 30.0 mN/m for SA-9. All three surfactants reduced natural convection water loss over 5 days with SLS showing the greatest effect on evaporation rates. The maximum evaporation reduction by each surfactant from distilled water with no surfactants after 5 days is 26.1% for SLS, 20.8% for EH-14, and 18.4% for SA-9.

Abstract This paper investigates the techno-economic feasibility of integrating a desalination system to an offshore wind farm. The first part of the paper involves a proposal for the design of a desalination system fitted inside the WindFloat Atlantic hull. Taking into account of the power, footprint, volume and weight requirements of the desalination system, the desalination capacity is chosen to be 10,000 m3/d per platform2. A 3D model of the system is also presented. The second part of the paper focuses on the development of an economic model that gives as output the levelized cost of water (LCOW) for the studied technology. At first, a methodology to estimate capital expenditure (Capex) and operational expenditure (Opex) of an offshore desalination system with the above-mentioned characteristics is presented. Then, three locations with high wind speeds and with frequent exposure to droughts (Gran Canaria, California and South Africa) are chosen and the model is applied. Particularly interesting results are found for Gran Canaria, isolated system with favorable conditions (high electricity price, high water production cost and good offshore wind resource).

This technical note is an update to the previous "Water in the Time of Drought: Lessons from Five Droughts Around the World", published in 2018. It explores drought situations and policies in Spain (including the Canary Islands), Chile, Mexico, the dry corridor between Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador, Brazil, and South Africa. Each of these countries has recently dealt with droughts and/or developed long-term solutions to manage them. HydroBID, a tool developed by the IDB, will be presented through relevant case studies. After defining drought experiences and institutional frameworks in each country, the brief will explore the successes and challenges of national drought and water management policies. Best practices and lessons learned will be extracted from each case study to help policymakers better prepare for droughts.