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Journal articles on the topic 'Dynamic decisions under risk'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 4 June 2021

Last updated: 6 February 2022

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1

Keller, Klaus, Casey Helgeson, and Vivek Srikrishnan. "Climate Risk Management." Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 49, no. 1 (2021): 95–116. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-080320-055847.

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Accelerating global climate change drives new climate risks. People around the world are researching, designing, and implementing strategies to manage these risks. Identifying and implementing sound climate risk management strategies poses nontrivial challenges including ( a) linking the required disciplines, ( b) identifying relevant values and objectives, ( c) identifying and quantifying important uncertainties, ( d) resolving interactions between decision levers and the system dynamics, ( e) quantifying the trade-offs between diverse values under deep and dynamic uncertainties, ( f) communi

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Slattery, Jeffrey P., and Daniel C. Ganster. "Determinants of Risk Taking in a Dynamic Uncertain Context." Journal of Management 28, no. 1 (2002): 89–106. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/014920630202800106.

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We tested the effects of positive and negative framing on risky decision making in a simulated managerial judgement task. Until now the extensive research on framing effects has been characterized by static contexts, explicit probabilities, and hypothetical gambles. In contrast we simulated a more realistic decision making environment in which individuals chose more or less risky goals in a complex dynamic task that featured uncertain outcomes and meaningful consequences. Decision makers chose a series of performance goals under conditions of either potential losses or gains and also received

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Hertzler, Greg. "Dynamic Decisions under Risk: Application of Ito Stochastic Control in Agriculture." American Journal of Agricultural Economics 73, no. 4 (1991): 1126–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1242441.

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Song, Hongjuan, and Yushi Jiang. "Dynamic pricing decisions by potential tourists under uncertainty: The effects of tourism advertising." Tourism Economics 25, no. 2 (2018): 213–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1354816618797250.

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The aim of this study is to examine the advertising information learning processes of potential tourists and observe how potential tourists sequentially adjust their perceived reference prices and purchase intentions with different risk preferences and choices with respect to gains (the current price is lower than the consumer’s reference price) or losses (the current price is higher than the reference price). In this study, a Bayesian experiment was conducted to elicit reference prices in the presence of tourism advertising with uncertain information. The findings show that with respect to ga

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LIN, CHIN-TSAI, and CHENG-RU WU. "REAL OPTIONS: BATCH PROCESS AND MARKET ENTRY/EXIT DECISIONS UNDER UNCERTAINTY." Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research 21, no. 01 (2004): 35–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0217595904000023.

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Under uncertainty of exchange rate, we extend the batch process production model of Lin et al. (2002) by considering an export-oriented manufacturer making decisions to switch freely between domestic and foreign locations. The export-oriented manufacturer is risk neutral and has rational expectations. We use dynamic programming and Lagrange multiplies for a stochastic optimization control problem to get the productive value of exporter produces in domestic and foreign locations. Next, the export-oriented manufacturer can make decision regarding the optimal entry (exit) trigger for transferable

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SANTOS, FRANCISCO C., VÍTOR V. VASCONCELOS, MARTA D. SANTOS, P. N. B. NEVES, and JORGE M. PACHECO. "EVOLUTIONARY DYNAMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE UNDER COLLECTIVE-RISK DILEMMAS." Mathematical Models and Methods in Applied Sciences 22, supp01 (2012): 1140004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218202511400045.

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Preventing global warming requires overall cooperation. Contributions will depend on the risk of future losses, which plays a key role in decision-making. Here, we discuss an evolutionary game theoretical model in which decisions within small groups under high risk and stringent requirements toward success significantly raise the chances of coordinating to save the planet's climate, thus escaping the tragedy of the commons. We discuss both deterministic dynamics in infinite populations, and stochastic dynamics in finite populations.

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Shi, Yuan, Ting Qu, and LK Chu. "A dynamic Stackelberg game model for portfolio procurement." Industrial Management & Data Systems 116, no. 3 (2016): 350–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/imds-06-2015-0250.

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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose a portfolio procurement framework to response to uncertain customer demand and purchasing price volatility in a simultaneous manner. Then it aims to obtain optimal procurement and production decisions under the portfolio framework to maximize profit. Design/methodology/approach – The portfolio procurement problem is modeled as a dynamic Stackelberg game and Nash equilibrium solutions are obtained. The portfolio procurement framework is analyzed in the settings, with both risk-neutral objective and downside risk constraints measure of contract p

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Iachan, Felipe S. "Capital Budgeting and Risk Taking Under Credit Constraints." Management Science 66, no. 9 (2020): 4292–314. http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2019.3369.

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Limited external financing creates a hedging motive that distorts resource allocation for investment projects. I study these distortions through a dynamic model with endogenous collateral constraints. The hedging motive can be broken into three components: expected future productivity, leverage capacity, and current net worth. Although constrained firms behave as if averse to transitory fluctuations in net worth, they can endogenously pursue increased exposure to both persistent factors that predict future productivity and fluctuations in credit tightness. The most constrained firms abstain fr

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Teeter, Lawrence D., and Jon P. Caulfield. "Stand density management strategies under risk: effects of stochastic prices." Canadian Journal of Forest Research 21, no. 9 (1991): 1373–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/x91-194.

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A method is described for determining optimal economic strategies for density management in loblolly pine (Pinustaeda L.) stands in the southern United States. A stochastic dynamic programming model employs a price state transition matrix constructed using a first-order conditional cumulative density function for price based on time-series data for national forest pine stumpage in the South. The model also incorporates WTHIN, a pine growth and yield simulator widely used in the South to support analyses of alternative stand management strategies. Results indicate that at current average prices

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Ishag, Kheiry Hassan M., and Hag Hamad Abdelaziz. "Evaluating an Investment Opportunity Under Risk and Uncertainty Environment: A Case Study About Profitability and Risk in Desert Farming at Najed Area." Sustainable Agriculture Research 3, no. 4 (2014): 96. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/sar.v3n4p96.

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<p>Fodder is continuously cultivated in coastal area of Salalah and Batinah region of Sultanate of Oman. However, this created a negative impact on the overall agriculture system and production. The government authority stopped the cultivation of Rhodes grass in coastal area and support farmers with incentive systems in order to increase fodder production investment at Najed area. Due to irrigation water policy regulations, new technical solutions required, underground water availability, fodder investors have little data to help in making investment decisions. In addition, fodder produ

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Naguez, Naceur. "Dynamic portfolio insurance strategies: risk management under Johnson distributions." Annals of Operations Research 262, no. 2 (2016): 605–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10479-016-2121-8.

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Apau, Richard, Paul-Francois Muzindutsi, and Peter Moores-Pitt. "Mutual fund flow-performance dynamics under different market conditions in South Africa." Investment Management and Financial Innovations 18, no. 1 (2021): 236–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/imfi.18(1).2021.20.

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Questions regarding the specific factors that drive continuous cash allocations by investors into portfolios of actively managed funds, despite consistent underperformance, continue to remain an inexhaustive aspect of the literature that calls for further investigations. This study assesses the dynamic relationship between fund flow and performance of equity mutual funds in South Africa under different market conditions. The study employs a GMM technique to analyze the panel data of 52 South African equity mutual funds from 2006 to 2019. The analysis found that convexity is prevalent in the fl

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Åström, H., P. Friis Hansen, L. Garré, and K. Arnbjerg-Nielsen. "An influence diagram for urban flood risk assessment through pluvial flood hazards under non-stationary conditions." Journal of Water and Climate Change 5, no. 3 (2014): 276–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wcc.2014.103.

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Urban flooding introduces significant risk to society. Non-stationarity leads to increased uncertainty and this is challenging to include in actual decision-making. The primary objective of this study was to develop a risk assessment and decision support framework for pluvial urban flood risk under non-stationary conditions using an influence diagram (ID) which is a Bayesian network (BN) extended with decision and utility nodes. Non-stationarity is considered to be the influence of climate change where extreme precipitation patterns change over time. The overall risk is quantified in monetary

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Smith, K., and P. A. Hancock. "Managing Risk under Time Stress." Proceedings of the Human Factors Society Annual Meeting 36, no. 13 (1992): 1019–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/154193129203601322.

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The evolution of automated and semi-automated systems is rendering continuous regulation relatively obsolete, leaving periodic “management” interventions as the main way in which operators exercise control. Consequently, the human is now more frequently required to respond in uncertain, unusual, or “emergency” conditions. Such circumstances connote high stress environments. Consequently, the research reported here investigates expertise at decision making under stress. The source of stress is ubiquitous in occurrence, namely time pressure. We present a process model that explains and predicts

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Konoshima, Masashi, Heidi J. Albers, Claire A. Montgomery, and Jeffrey L. Arthur. "Optimal spatial patterns of fuel management and timber harvest with fire risk." Canadian Journal of Forest Research 40, no. 1 (2010): 95–108. http://dx.doi.org/10.1139/x09-176.

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The stochastic and spatial nature of fire poses challenges for the cost-efficient allocation of fuel treatment over the landscape. A model that addresses complex but important components of fuel management decisions, spatial and dynamic aspects of fire risk, and a carefully designed framework that allows us to draw general insight into the optimal spatial pattern of management are necessary to provide a basis for developing efficient fuel treatment plans. For this purpose, we combine a physical fire model and a spatial-dynamic optimization model to explore harvest and fuel treatment across a h

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Cetin, Coskun. "Delegated dynamic portfolio management under mean-variance preferences." Journal of Applied Mathematics and Decision Sciences 2006 (August 14, 2006): 1–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/jamds/2006/61895.

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We consider a complete financial market with deterministic parameters where an investor and a fund manager have mean-variance preferences. The investor is allowed to borrow with risk-free rate and dynamically allocate his wealth in the fund provided his holdings stay nonnegative. The manager gets proportional fees instantaneously for her management services. We show that the manager can eliminate all her risk, at least in the constant coefficients case. Her own portfolio is a proportion of the amount the investor holds in the fund. The equilibrium optimal strategies are independent of the fee

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Yoshida, Yuji. "A Dynamic Risk Allocation of Value-at-Risks with Portfolios." Journal of Advanced Computational Intelligence and Intelligent Informatics 16, no. 7 (2012): 800–806. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jaciii.2012.p0800.

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A mathematical dynamic portfolio model with uncertainty is discussed by use of value-at-risks. The risk criterion is composed by the sum of unexpected shortterm risks which occur suddenly in each period. By dynamic programming approach, we derive an optimality condition for the optimal value-at-risk portfolio in a stochastic decision process. It is shown that the optimal value-at-risk is a solution of the optimality equation under a reasonable assumption, and an optimal trading strategy is obtained from the equation. A numerical example is given to illustrate our idea.

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Al Abri, Ibtisam, and Kelly Grogan. "The Interaction of Wildfire Risk Mitigation Policies in the Presence of Spatial Externalities and Heterogeneous Landowners." Forests 11, no. 1 (2019): 15. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/f11010015.

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The dramatic increase in the number of uncontrollable wildfires in the United States has become an important policy issue as they threaten valuable forests and human property. The derived stochastic dynamic model of this study is capable of determining optimal fuel treatment timing and level simultaneously and as a function of fire risk and fuel biomass dynamics. This study develops a stochastic dynamic model to evaluate the interaction of fuel treatment decisions for two adjacent landowners under various scenarios of misinformation about fire occurrence and spread. Findings indicate that a la

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Wickens, Christopher D., Alan F. Stokes, Barbara Barnett, and Fred Hyman. "Stress and Pilot Judgment: An Empirical Study Using MIDIS, a Microcomputer-Based Simulation." Proceedings of the Human Factors Society Annual Meeting 32, no. 2 (1988): 173–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/154193128803200238.

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This report presents an information processing framework for predicting the effects of stress manipulations on pilot decision making. The framework predicts that stressors related to anxiety, time pressure, and high risk situations will restrict the range of cue sampling and reduce the capacity of working memory, but will not affect decisions that are based upon direct retrieval of knowledge from long term memory. These predictions were tested on MIDIS, a microcomputer-based pilot decision simulator. Performance on a series of 38 decision problems was compared between ten subjects in a control

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Ridier, Aude, and Florence Jacquet. "Decoupling Direct Payments and the Dynamics of Decisions under Price Risk in Cattle Farms." Journal of Agricultural Economics 53, no. 3 (2002): 549–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1477-9552.2002.tb00037.x.

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Pei, Binbin, Haojun Xu, Yuan Xue, Wei Chen, and Anwei Shen. "In-flight icing risk prediction and management in consideration of wing stall." Aircraft Engineering and Aerospace Technology 90, no. 1 (2018): 24–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/aeat-06-2015-0147.

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Purpose The purpose of this work is to develop an in-flight icing risk assessment methodology by quantification of changing flight dynamic characteristics under icing conditions. Design/methodology/approach This paper develops an approach for the quantitative assessment of flight risk under icing conditions. Using the six degree-of-freedom simulation model, the icing effects model is used to obtain the extreme values of the key parameters relevant to fight safety, allowing calculation of accident probability based on extreme value theory. The risk portion of the flight risk index is designed t

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Liu, Yong. "A Multistage Dynamic Emergency Decision-Making Method considering the Satisfaction under Uncertainty Information." Journal of Advanced Transportation 2021 (April 15, 2021): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/5535925.

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Emergency decision-making (EDM) is of paramount importance, especially when the emergency occurs. The evolution nature of the emergency, such as multistage, uncertainty, dynamic, and information updating, has been playing a key role in the dynamic emergency decision-making process. However, most existing studies ignored the aforementioned nature. Our approach accounts for the dynamics inherent to a real emergency decision-making process and presents a multistage dynamic emergency decision-making (MSDEDM) procedure of a dynamic programming model based on decision-makers’ psychological reference

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Heidenberger, Kurt. "Dynamic project selection and funding under risk: A decision tree based MILP approach." European Journal of Operational Research 95, no. 2 (1996): 284–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0377-2217(95)00259-6.

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ROOS, PATRICK, and DANA NAU. "RISK PREFERENCE AND SEQUENTIAL CHOICE IN EVOLUTIONARY GAMES." Advances in Complex Systems 13, no. 04 (2010): 559–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0219525910002682.

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There is much empirical evidence that human decision-making under risk does not coincide with expected value maximization, and much effort has been invested into the development of descriptive theories of human decision-making involving risk (e.g. Prospect Theory). An open question is how behavior corresponding to these descriptive models could have been learned or arisen evolutionarily, as the described behavior differs from expected value maximization. We believe that the answer to this question lies, at least in part, in the interplay between risk-taking, sequentiality of choice, and popula

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GREPPERUD, SVERRE. "Optimal soil depletion with output and price uncertainty." Environment and Development Economics 5, no. 3 (2000): 221–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1355770x00000152.

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This paper studies soil depletion incentives in a dynamic economic model under two different sources of revenue uncertainty (output and price risk). The focus is on the long-term effects of risk-averse preferences when farming decisions have implications for both expected short-run production and natural topsoil fertility. The analysis shows that the risk properties of the stock variable are crucial for the results arrived. The presence of risk preferences is found to improve soil conservation incentives in a low-input farming system, independent of the source of revenue risk considered. The o

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Carbone, Enrica, Konstantinos Georgalos, and Gerardo Infante. "Individual vs. group decision-making: an experiment on dynamic choice under risk and ambiguity." Theory and Decision 87, no. 1 (2019): 87–122. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11238-019-09694-8.

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YALCIN, CENGIZ, and ALISTAIR W. STOTT. "Dynamic programming to investigate financial impacts of mastitis control decisions in milk production systems." Journal of Dairy Research 67, no. 4 (2000): 515–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0022029900004453.

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An adaptive stochastic dynamic programming model was used to solve the optimum replacement decision problem for the dairy cow under a range of alternative mastitis control procedures. The model predicted that reducing milk yield losses and somatic cell count penalties by using milking machine test, post-milking teat disinfection and dry cow therapy added approximately £4, £10 and £13 respectively to an original annuity equivalent net present value for the replacement heifer of £286. Assuming that these procedures also reduced involuntary culling due to mastitis by 50% added £8·90 to the annuit

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RUBINSON, TERESA. "MULTI-PERIOD RISK MANAGEMENT USING FUZZY LOGIC." International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems 04, no. 05 (1996): 449–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218488596000263.

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In this paper, we present a fuzzy dynamic programming procedure for long term risk management. This approach is designed to provide insights on trade-offs between potential risks and rewards, the dynamics of interacting economic factors, and the feasibility of corporate goals over a long term planning horizon. This approach is applicable to many long term planning problems involving selection from a number of alternatives, when the decision parameters are imprecise and absolute requirements and decision thresholds can not be specified. A few examples of problems of this type include: portfolio

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NAYMAN, NIV. "SHORTFALL RISK MINIMIZATION UNDER FIXED TRANSACTION COSTS." International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance 21, no. 05 (2018): 1850034. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0219024918500346.

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In this work, we deal with market frictions which are given by fixed transaction costs independent of the volume of the trade. The main question that we study is the minimization of shortfall risk in the Black–Scholes (BS) model under constraints on the initial capital. This problem does not have an analytical solution and so numerical schemes come into the picture. The Cox–Ross–Rubinstein (CRR) binomial models are an efficient tool for approximating the BS model. In this paper, we study in detail the CRR models with fixed transaction costs. In particular, we construct an augmented state-actio

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Höllermann, B., and M. Evers. "Integration of uncertainties in water and flood risk management." Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences 370 (June 11, 2015): 193–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/piahs-370-193-2015.

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Abstract. Water management is challenged by hydrological and socio-economic change and hence often forced to make costly and enduring decisions under uncertainty. Thus, thinking beyond current acknowledged and known limits is important to consider these changes and the dynamic of socio-hydrological interactions. For example, reservoir management aiming at flood reduction and mitigation has to cope with many different aspects of uncertainty. The question is to what extent can, do and should these uncertainties have implications on planning and decision-making? If practice recognises uncertainti

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Behrendt, Karl, Oscar Cacho, James M. Scott, and Randall Jones. "Using seasonal stochastic dynamic programming to identify optimal management decisions that achieve maximum economic sustainable yields from grasslands under climate risk." Agricultural Systems 145 (June 2016): 13–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2016.03.001.

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Liu, Zhenfang, Yang Zhou, Gordon Huang, and Bin Luo. "Risk Aversion Based Inexact Stochastic Dynamic Programming Approach for Water Resources Management Planning under Uncertainty." Sustainability 11, no. 24 (2019): 6926. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11246926.

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In this study, a dual interval robust stochastic dynamic programming (DIRSDP) method is developed for planning water resources management systems under uncertainty. As an extension of the existing interval stochastic dynamic programming (ISDP) method, DIRSDP can deal with two-stage stochastic programming (TSP)-based planning problems associated with dynamic features, input uncertainties, and multistage concerns. Compared with other optimization methods dealing with uncertainties, the developed DIRSDP method has advantages in addressing uncertainties with complex presentations and reflecting de

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Posedel Šimović, Petra, and Azra Tafro. "Pricing the Volatility Risk Premium with a Discrete Stochastic Volatility Model." Mathematics 9, no. 17 (2021): 2038. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/math9172038.

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Investors’ decisions on capital markets depend on their anticipation and preferences about risk, and volatility is one of the most common measures of risk. This paper proposes a method of estimating the market price of volatility risk by incorporating both conditional heteroscedasticity and nonlinear effects in market returns, while accounting for asymmetric shocks. We develop a model that allows dynamic risk premiums for the underlying asset and for the volatility of the asset under the physical measure. Specifically, a nonlinear in mean time series model combining the asymmetric autoregressi

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Liu, Yanlan, Anthony J. Parolari, Mukesh Kumar, Cheng-Wei Huang, Gabriel G. Katul, and Amilcare Porporato. "Increasing atmospheric humidity and CO2 concentration alleviate forest mortality risk." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, no. 37 (2017): 9918–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1704811114.

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Climate-induced forest mortality is being increasingly observed throughout the globe. Alarmingly, it is expected to exacerbate under climate change due to shifting precipitation patterns and rising air temperature. However, the impact of concomitant changes in atmospheric humidity and CO2 concentration through their influence on stomatal kinetics remains a subject of debate and inquiry. By using a dynamic soil–plant–atmosphere model, mortality risks associated with hydraulic failure and stomatal closure for 13 temperate and tropical forest biomes across the globe are analyzed. The mortality ri

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Szymszal, J., T. Lis, B. Gajdzik, and J. Kliś. "Analysis of the Possibility of Using Dynamic Methods for Assessment of Investment Projects in the Domestic Foundry Industry." Archives of Foundry Engineering 14, no. 3 (2014): 103–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/afe-2014-0071.

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Abstract A comparative analysis involving the evaluation of the effectiveness of investment projects can be based on various rules indicating selection of the most favorable decisions. The dynamic methods for assessment of investment projects discussed in this article, which consider the possibility of modifying the predetermined investment options, are quite complex and difficult to implement. They are used both in the construction phase of the new company, as well as in its subsequent modernization. The assessments should be characterized by a high coefficient of the economic efficiency. The

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Chaudhury, Anwesha, Lorette Noiret, and John M. Higgins. "White blood cell population dynamics for risk stratification of acute coronary syndrome." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, no. 46 (2017): 12344–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1709228114.

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The complete blood count (CBC) provides a high-level assessment of a patient’s immunologic state and guides the diagnosis and treatment of almost all diseases. Hematology analyzers evaluate CBCs by making high-dimensional single-cell measurements of size and cytoplasmic and nuclear morphology in high throughput, but only the final cell counts are commonly used for clinical decisions. Here, we utilize the underlying single-cell measurements from conventional clinical instruments to develop a mathematical model guided by cellular mechanisms that quantifies the population dynamics of neutrophil,

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GUSARINA, NATALIYA. "MULTI-CRITERIA SELECTION ON A FINITE SET OF ALTERNATIVE MANAGEMENT OF INNOVATIVE ACTIVITY UNDER UNCERTAINTY�." Economic innovations 20, no. 1(66) (2018): 62–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.31520/ei.2018.20.1(66).62-68.

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Topicality. The study of theoretical and practical problems of managing the economic development of enterprises on the basis of innovations is an important direction of the economic development of enterprises. The urgency of the research is determined by the need for strategic management of innovation activity in the conditions of unpredictable influences of dynamic changes in the external environment.Aim and tasks. The aim of the article is a ground of methodical receptions of multicriterion evaluation of management alternatives by innovative activity, to economic essence of criteria and area

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Wang, Yihua, Mengke Yang, and Xiaoguang Zhou. "The path selection model of emergency logistics based on cumulative prospect theory." E3S Web of Conferences 136 (2019): 04067. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/201913604067.

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In recent years, sudden natural disasters occur frequently. Typical emergencies have the characteristics of great uncertainty, large-scale casualty risk, time pressure and urgency, which have a series of serious and sustained impacts on people's production and life. Therefore, after the emergencies, emergency rescue is particularly important for disaster-stricken areas, and the decision-making of emergency logistics is an important part of it. At present, the research on emergency logistics in China focuses on the shortest distribution time, multi-objective decision-making, dynamic path planni

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Ke, Hua, Yong Wu, and Hu Huang. "Competitive Pricing and Remanufacturing Problem in an Uncertain Closed-Loop Supply Chain with Risk-Sensitive Retailers." Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research 35, no. 01 (2018): 1850003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0217595918500033.

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Nowadays, pricing and remanufacturing problems under uncertain markets have gained increasing attention from both industrial and academic fields. In the literature, it is generally assumed that all the channel members are risk-neutral, ignoring the influences of channel members’ risk attitudes in the face of dynamic market. This paper focuses on a pricing problem in a closed-loop supply chain (CLSC) with two competitive risk-sensitive retailers under uncertain environment. The uncertainty is associated with the recycling costs, consumer demands and remanufacturing costs. Due to the dynamic mar

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Kostyuchenko, Yuriy V., Viktor Pushkar, Olga Malysheva, and Maxim Yuschenko. "On the Behavior-Based Risk Communication Models in Crisis Management and Social Risks Minimization." International Journal of Cyber Warfare and Terrorism 10, no. 2 (2020): 27–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijcwt.2020040102.

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The article formulates and calibrates a formal model of risk communications in the framework of a risk-based community resilience assessment approach in transforming societies under crises and conflicts. It was demonstrated that perception of risks is not adequate. This situation is recognized as a threat, which leads to a significant increase of losses and to spreading of wrong crisis management practices. To improve decision-making at the personal, group, and population levels, a behavioral-based communication model has been proposed. The modified form of engagement into collective actions f

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Zhu, Mo, Michael Chen, and Murat Kristal. "MODELLING THE IMPACTS OF UNCERTAIN CARBON TAX POLICY ON MARITIME FLEET MIX STRATEGY AND CARBON MITIGATION." Transport 33, no. 3 (2018): 707–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/transport.2018.1579.

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The maritime transport industry continues to draw international attention on significant Greenhouse Gas emissions. The introduction of emissions taxes aims to control and reduce emissions. The uncertainty of carbon tax policy affects shipping companies’ fleet planning and increases costs. We formulate the fleet planning problem under carbon tax policy uncertainty a multi-stage stochastic integer-programming model for the liner shipping companies. We develop a scenario tree to represent the structure of the carbon tax stochastic dynamics, and seek the optimal planning, which is adaptive to the

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Ma, Junhai, Qiuxiang Li, and Binshuo Bao. "Study on Complex Advertising and Price Competition Dual-Channel Supply Chain Models Considering the Overconfidence Manufacturer." Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2016 (2016): 1–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2016/2027146.

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In order to explore how the manufacturers make decisions when two manufacturers compete for local advertising investment, we examine two noncooperative models (Stackelberg and Nash game) and propose a cost sharing contract to investigate channel competition of dual-channel supply chain. The dominant power between manufacturer and retailer and the effect of channel competition strategy on price are mainly discussed. In addition, dynamic system concepts are integrated into Stackelberg game model based on bounded rational mechanism. We analyze the local stability and find that the stability level

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Quiroga, S., L. Garrote, A. Iglesias, et al. "The economic value of drought information for water management under climate change: a case study in the Ebro basin." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 11, no. 3 (2011): 643–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-643-2011.

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Abstract. Drought events in the Mediterranean are likely to increase in frequency, duration and intensity due to climate change, thereby affecting crop production. Information about drought is valuable for river basin authorities and the farmers affected by their decisions. The economic value of this information and the resulting decisions are of interest to these two stakeholder groups and to the information providers. Understanding the dynamics of extreme events, including droughts, in future climate scenarios for the Mediterranean is being improved continuously. This paper analyses the econ

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Annou, Mamane M., Eric J. Wailes, and Michael R. Thomsen. "A Dynamic Decision Model of Technology Adoption under Uncertainty: Case of Herbicide-Resistant Rice." Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 37, no. 1 (2005): 161–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1074070800007173.

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Herbicide-resistant (HR) rice technology is a potential tool for control of red rice in commercial rice production. Using anex antemathematical programming framework, this research presents an empirical analysis of HR rice technology adoption under uncertainty. The analysis accounts for stochastic germination of red rice and sheath blight to model a profit maximization problem of crop rotation among HR rice, regular rice, and soybeans. The results demonstrate that risk attitudes and technology efficiency determine adoption rates and optimal rotation patterns.

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Martinelli, Gabriele, Jo Eidsvik, Ketil Hokstad, and Ragnar Hauge. "Strategies for Petroleum Exploration on the Basis of Bayesian Networks: A Case Study." SPE Journal 19, no. 04 (2013): 564–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/159722-pa.

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Summary The paper presents a new approach for modeling important geological elements, such as reservoir, trap, and source, in a unified statistical model. This joint modeling of these geological variables is useful for reliable prospect evaluation, and provides a framework for consistent decision making under uncertainty. A Bayesian network (BN), involving different kinds of dependency structures, is used to model the correlation within the various geological elements and to couple the elements. On the basis of the constructed network, an optimal sequential exploration strategy is established

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Nowak, Maciej, and Tadeusz Trzaskalik. "Quasi-Hierarchical Approach to Discrete Multiobjective Stochastic Dynamic Programming." Przegląd Statystyczny 64, no. 3 (2017): 265–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.5604/01.3001.0014.0818.

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In this paper we consider a multi-stage, multi-criteria discrete decision process under risk. We use a discrete, stochastic dynamic programming approach based on Bellman’s principle of optimality. We assume that the decision maker determines a quasi-hierarchy of the criteria considered; in other words, he or she is able to determine to what extent the optimal expected value of a higher-priority criterion can be made worse to improve the expected value of a lower-priority criterion. The process of obtaining the final solution can be interactive. Based on the observations of the consecutive solu

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Alam, MD Jahedul, Muhammad Ahsanul Habib, Kevin Quigley, and Tim L. Webster. "Evaluation of the Traffic Impacts of Mass Evacuation of Halifax: Flood Risk and Dynamic Traffic Microsimulation Modeling." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 2672, no. 1 (2018): 148–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0361198118799169.

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This paper presents a comprehensive evaluation of traffic impacts of a mass evacuation of the Halifax Peninsula under several flooding scenarios. Flood extent and associated damages to the transport network are identified through digital elevation modeling that intersects with the Halifax stream and transport networks. The resulting flood scenarios inform a traffic microsimulation model that uses a dynamic traffic assignment-based microsimulation approach and simulates the evacuation of 34,808 evacuees estimated from the Halifax Regional Transport Network Model. The simulation results suggest

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Zenios, Stavros A., Andrea Consiglio, Marialena Athanasopoulou, Edmund Moshammer, Angel Gavilan, and Aitor Erce. "Risk Management for Sustainable Sovereign Debt Financing." Operations Research 69, no. 3 (2021): 755–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/opre.2020.2055.

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The sharp increase of sovereign debt internationally, since the 2008 global financial crisis, decisively contributed to several sovereign debt crises. The current COVID-19 pandemic and the fact that public debt remains high globally, have prompted a renewed interest in debt sustainability analysis (DSA) and in policy discussions concerning the most appropriate variables. We develop a normative DSA model to manage tail risk and optimize debt-financing decisions with sustainability conditions on debt stock and flow, under macroeconomic, financial, and fiscal uncertainty. We show that a risk mana

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Huang, Jiemin, Jiaoju Ge, Kai Chang, and Yixiang Tian. "Dynamic hedging analysis of carbon emission trading yield in Shenzhen." Energy & Environment 31, no. 5 (2019): 870–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0958305x19882409.

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The paper selected the carbon emission trading yields data from 2014 to 2017 in Shenzhen. A generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model was used to find the best way to hedge the risk of spot carbon emissions in Shenzhen carbon emission trading exchange market. The variances of carbon spot and coal futures were first examined. The dynamic hedging rate was calculated too. The results showed that according to the actual data and market change strategies, the dynamic hedging rate is better than the optimal hedging rate that can hedge risk better. The carbon emission trading yi

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Zhu, Ying, May Chu, Xiaowei Wen, and Yiqin Wang. "Food Safety Risk Communication between the Food Regulator and Consumer in China: An Evolutionary Game Perspective." Complexity 2021 (August 17, 2021): 1–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2021/9933796.

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Food safety risk communication has attracted widespread attention in China. The government is the leader in food risk communication. It has even more impact on consumers’ willingness to communicate food risk. Thus, this paper constructs a risk communication game model composed of the central government, local government, and consumers under food safety regulatory agencies in China. Based on the evolutionary game theory, we achieved the evolutionary stable equilibrium points under complying different constraint conditions by solving the replicator dynamic equations of parties in the dynamic sys

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