Academic literature on the topic 'Dynamic demographic analysis'
Create a spot-on reference in APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard, and other styles
Consult the lists of relevant articles, books, theses, conference reports, and other scholarly sources on the topic 'Dynamic demographic analysis.'
Next to every source in the list of references, there is an 'Add to bibliography' button. Press on it, and we will generate automatically the bibliographic reference to the chosen work in the citation style you need: APA, MLA, Harvard, Chicago, Vancouver, etc.
You can also download the full text of the academic publication as pdf and read online its abstract whenever available in the metadata.
Journal articles on the topic "Dynamic demographic analysis"
1
Smallwood, Steve. "Dynamic Demographic Analysis." Population Studies 71, no. 1 (January 2, 2017): 135–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2016.1269973.
Full text
2
Shen, J. "Spatial-Dynamic Population Systems: Analysis and Projection." Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space 26, no. 3 (March 1994): 471–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1068/a260471.
Full textAbstract:
In this paper a set of more-detailed multiregional population accounts is proposed to specify more realistically the exposure time of populations at risk for various components of population change. The concepts of population-time at risk and forward demographic rates based on the initial population are discussed. The relations of the forward demographic rates defined in this paper with the occurrence-exposure demographic rates are discussed. A more precise and straightforward multiregional population model is developed on the basis of forward demographic rates. The model is also expressed in the familiar matrix form of multiregional, cohort-survival models.
3
Luski, I., and J. Weinblatt. "A dynamic analysis of fiscal pressure and demographic transition." Applied Economics 30, no. 11 (November 1, 1998): 1431–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/000368498324788.
Full text
4
Croitoru, Elena Lucia. "Pension System Reform in Romania: A Dynamic Analysis of the Demographic Influence." Procedia Economics and Finance 20 (2015): 140–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s2212-5671(15)00058-1.
Full text
5
Faraz, Naeem, Yasir Khan, E. F. Doungmo Goufo, Amna Anjum, and Ali Anjum. "Dynamic analysis of the mathematical model of COVID-19 with demographic effects." Zeitschrift für Naturforschung C 75, no. 11-12 (November 26, 2020): 389–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/znc-2020-0121.
Full textAbstract:
AbstractThe coronavirus is currently extremely contagious for humankind, which is a zoonotic tropical disease. The pandemic is the largest in history, affecting almost the whole world. What makes the condition the worst of all is no specific effective treatment available. In this article, we present an extended and modified form of SIR and SEIR model, respectively. We begin by investigating a simple mathematical model that describes the pandemic. Then we apply different safety measures to control the pandemic situation. The mathematical model with and without control is solved by using homotopy perturbation method. Obtained solutions have been presented graphically. Finally, we develop another mathematical model, including quarantine and hospitalization.
6
Moretti, Valerio, Luca Salvati, Massimo Cecchini, and Ilaria Zambon. "A Long-Term Analysis of Demographic Processes, Socioeconomic ‘Modernization’ and Forest Expansion in a European Country." Sustainability 11, no. 2 (January 14, 2019): 388. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11020388.
Full textAbstract:
This article investigates long-term forest decline and expansion vis-à-vis demographic processes in Italy, evidencing changes in the underlying socioeconomic context considering the ‘modernization theory’. An exploratory data analysis of 58 indicators assessing five basic research dimensions (territory, demography, education, trade and agriculture) and evolving rapidly over the study period (1862–2009), was run to ascertain similarity patterns among indicators and to identify time intervals characterized by homogeneous conditions in different analysis’ domains. Complementing indicators of forest expansion, changes in population structure and dynamics allow an empirical investigation of temporal coherence among demographic and forest transitions in Italy. The time window encompassing the two World Wars, approximately between 1931 and 1951, was identified as a turning point in the forest-socioeconomic system, being characterized by two groups of indicators that follow diverging (linear vs. nonlinear) time trends. A secondary turning point was identified at the beginning of the 1970s. Distinct temporal trends in the studied indicators were also identified using multivariate statistics (before the 1930s, between the 1930s and the 1950s, between the 1950s and the 1970s, from the 1970s onwards) and represent conditions of dynamic equilibrium between socio-ecological contexts, highlighting latent transitions in both population and environment conditions. Our work definitely contributes to an empirical understanding of economic, political and social forces associated with forest transition and demographic transition in advanced economies.
7
Kostromina, E. V. "Structural and dynamic analysis of demographic processes in the Republic of Mari El." Statistics and Economics, no. 2 (January 1, 2017): 70–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2017-2-.
Full text
8
Amirusholihin and Listiono. "DEMOGRAPHIC BONUS ANALYSIS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH OF EAST JAVA." East Java Economic Journal 2, no. 1 (March 30, 2018): 8–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.53572/ejavec.v2i1.10.
Full textAbstract:
BKKBN predicts that Indonesia will get demographic bonus in 2020 until 2030. The question is whether the demographic bonus has a positive impact on the economy of East Java or even a negative impact. Based on data from BPS, by 2015 the workingage population in East Java is around 69.4 percent of the total population, while the child and old-age is 30.6 percent. The size of the working-age population is closely related to the amount of labor, which also greatly determines the amount of output on goods and services produced. This paper aims to explain how the impact of demographic bonuses on East Java's regional economy, based on the Solow model extended to include demographic variables. The analysis uses a dynamic panel model by 38 districts in East Java that have demographic bonuses in 2020 with GDP as a reference in determining the growth of economists. From these analyzes it can be seen the impact of demographic bonuses in East Java as an advantage or even create new spatial inequality between regions.
9
Panchenko, Liubov F. "ПІДГОТОВКА МАЙБУТНІХ СОЦІОЛОГІВ ДО КОМП’ЮТЕРНОГО АНАЛІЗУ ДЕМОГРАФІЧНИХ ПРОЦЕСІВ І СТРУКТУР." Information Technologies and Learning Tools 65, no. 3 (July 1, 2018): 166. http://dx.doi.org/10.33407/itlt.v65i3.2034.
Full textAbstract:
In the modern era of digital globalization, it is becoming more and more important to train sociology students in the field of demographics and demographic statistics based not only on demographic theories but also on the practical application of the new computer tools and technologies, databases and Internet services. The article analyzes the capabilities of modern computer tools for the analysis of demographic processes and structures in training sociology students; substantiates the use of the R environment as a tool for analysis and graphical representation of demographic data. It presents the idea of teaching students to perform computer analysis of demographic data using a combination of Excel spreadsheets, SPSS statistical package, R environment illustrated by two examples. The first example concerns building and comparing the gender-age pyramid of the population of Ukraine at different years and includes searching for the relevant data, building the pyramid using standard diagram building Excel tools, using SPSS tools (Chart Builder, Histogram, Population Pyramid), and using pyramid package of R environment. The second example relates to calculation of childcare and grandparent care load coefficients, visualizing their dynamics, and includes an introduction to the demographic passport of Ukraine. The article presents the developed methodological support for teaching sociology students to perform demographic data analysis, including presentation-lectures on the fundamental principles of work in R and R Studio environment, laboratory works (theory summary, detailed operative instructions, control questions, tasks for students ‘ independent work); data packages attached to every assignment. The author has analyzed the didactic capabilities of the free Gapminder service that includes the list of the tools titled `Play with Data`, bubble chart, maps, ranking, trends, age pyramids. This provides colorful and dynamic data visualization for chosen demographic criteria (depending on the research objectives) by countries and continents over time that stimulates the students to conduct additional scientific research.
10
Schwendicke, F., J. Krois, and R. Jordan. "Can We Predict Usage of Dental Services? An Analysis from Germany 2000 to 2015." JDR Clinical & Translational Research 5, no. 4 (February 5, 2020): 349–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2380084420904928.
Full textAbstract:
Objectives: We aimed to predict the usage of dental services in Germany from 2000 to 2015 based on epidemiologic and demographic data, and to compare these predictions against claims within the statutory health insurance. Methods: Indicators for operative (number of coronally decayed or filled teeth, root surface caries lesions, and fillings), prosthetic (number of missing teeth), and periodontal treatment needs (number of teeth with probing pocket depths (PPDs) ≥ 4 mm) from nationally representative German Oral Health Studies (1997, 2005, 2014) were cross-sectionally interpolated across age and time, and combined with year- and age-specific population estimates. These, as well as the number of children eligible for individual preventive services (aged 6 to 17 y), were adjusted for age- and time-specific insurance status and services’ utilization to yield predicted usage of operative, prosthetic, periodontal, and preventive services. Cumulative annual usage in these 4 services groups were compared against aggregations of a total of 24 claims positions from the statutory German health insurance. Results: Morbidity, utilization, and demography were highly dynamic across age groups and over time. Despite improvements of individual oral health, predicted usage of dental services did not decrease over time, but increased mainly due to usage shifts from younger (shrinking) to older (growing) age groups. Predicted usage of operative services increased between 2000 and 2015 (from 52 million to 56 million, +7.8%); predictions largely agreed with claimed services (root mean square error [RMSE] 1.9 million services, error range −4.6/+3.8%). Prosthetic services increased (from 2.4 million to 2.6 million, +11.9%), with near perfect agreement to claimed data [RMSE 0.1 million services, error range −8.3/+3.9%]). Periodontal services also increased (from 21 million to 27 million, +25.9%; RMSE 5.2 million services, error range +21.9/+36.5%), as did preventive services (from 22 million to 27 million, +20.4%; RMSE 3 million, error range −13.7/−4.7%). Conclusion: Predicting dental services seems viable when accounting for the joint dynamics of morbidity, utilization, and demographics. Knowledge Transfer Statement: Based on epidemiologic and demographic data, predicting usage of certain dental services is viable when accounting for the dynamics of morbidity, utilization, and demographics.
Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Dynamic demographic analysis"
1
Goujon, Anne, Daniela Weber, and Elke Loichinger. "Demographic Profile of the Arab Region: Realizing the Demographic Dividend." Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (ESCWA), United Nations, 2016. http://epub.wu.ac.at/5374/1/demographic%2Dprofile%2Darab%2Dregion%2D2015%2Denglish.pdf.
Full textAbstract:
The paper provides a detailed overview of population dynamics and trends in the Arab region. Furthermore, it explains the concept of demographic dividend and timing of the window of opportunity. With a view to enable countries in the region to reap the benefits of the changing population structure, the window is calculated for each country. The last part of the paper presents four case studies of countries that benefitted from their demographic dividend.
2
Montañola, i. Sales Cristina. "Large-scale simulation of population dynamics for socio-demographic analysis." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/299207.
Full textAbstract:
Computer modelling and complex systems simulation have dominated the scientific debate over the last decade, providing important outcomes in biology, geology and life sciences. In the social sciences, the number of research groups currently developing research programs in this direction is increasing. The results are extremely promising since simulation technologies have the potential to become an essential tool in the field.
Agent-based modelling is widely recognised as one of the techniques with more potential to develop useful simulations of social interacting systems. The approach allows to specify complex behavioural and cognitive rules at the individual level; and through aggregation, the output at the macro level can be derived. Increasingly, the output of micro-level simulation models is used as an input to policy models. Policy models not only requires detailed micro-level data, but also significant compute power since the number of agents and interactions can be extremely large in some cases.
High performance computing offers a massive supercomputing power which allows us to simulate a large artificial society. In that context, parallel simulation could provide an alternative to speed up the execution of such compute-intensive socio-demographic models. It deals with techniques that allow the use of multiple processors to run a single simulation. Although research in parallel simulation has been around for more than two decades, the number of applications in the social sciences is scarce.
In this thesis, we present a methodology for simulating population dynamics at a large-scale. Specifically, we developed a parallel simulation framework to run demographic models. It simulates the interactions of individuals in a society so the population projection can be obtained. Two of the main obstacles hindering the use of agent-based simulation in practice are (a) its scalability when the analysis requires large-scale models, and (b) its ease-of-use, especially for users with no programming experience. Our approach proposes a solution for both challenges. On one hand, we give a solution in to simulate large social systems in a parallel environment. We show its potential by studying the performance of our approach by identifying the factors that affect the simulation execution time. Moreover, we investigate the impact of three well-known configurations of computer architecture. Since the application of parallel simulation in demography is new, it is useful to quantify the effect of these factors on performance.
On the other hand, we provide a graphical user interface which allows modellers with no programming background to specify agent-based demographic models and transparently run them in parallel. We believe this will help to remove a major barrier on using simulation although we are aware technical knowledge is necessary to execute scenarios in High Performance Computing facilities.
Two cases studies are presented to support the feasibility of the approach for the social sciences. The first case under study carries out an analysis of the evolution of the emigrated population of The Gambia between 2001 and 2011, a relevant period for immigrations in Spain. The second case study simulates the socio-demographic changes of South Korean during one hundred years. The objective is to rate the feasibility of our methodology for forecasting individual demographic processes. Our results show that agent-based modelling can be very useful in the study of demography. Furthermore, the use of a parallel environment enables the use of larger scale demographic modelsEn las últimas décadas la modelización computacional y la simulación de sistemas complejos han dominado el debate científico, dando lugar a resultados importantes en áreas como la biología, la geología o las ciencias de la vida. En ciencias sociales el número de grupos de investigación que desarrollan programas en esta dirección no para de crecer. Los resultados son extremadamente prometedores ya que la simulación tiene el potencial para llegar a ser una herramienta esencial en el ámbito de los estudios sociales. La modelización basada en agentes es ampliamente reconocida como una de las técnicas con mayor potencial para desarrollar simulaciones de sistemas sociales. Este enfoque nos permite especificar reglas de comportamiento y cognición complejas a nivel del individuo y, a través de su agregación, se obtienen resultados a nivel macroscópico. Cada vez más, los resultados individualizados de los modelos de simulación son usados como entrada de modelos de políticas de planificación familiares. Estos modelos no sólo requieren una gran cantidad de datos a nivel microscópico, sino que además precisan de una capacidad de cálculo significativa ya que el nombre de agentes y sus interacciones puede llegar a ser muy grande. La computación de altas prestaciones ofrece una capacidad de cálculo masiva que nos permite simular a gran escala sociedades artificiales, proveyendo una alternativa para acelerar la ejecución de estos modelos socio-demográficos tan intensivos en sus cálculos. Aunque la investigación en simulación paralela tiene más de veinte años, el número de aplicaciones en las ciencias sociales es escaso. En esta tesis presentamos una metodología para simular dinámicas poblaciones a gran escala. Concretamente, hemos desarrollado un entorno de simulación paralela que permite emular modelos demográficos, simulando las interacciones de individuos en una sociedad con el fin de obtener la proyección de la población. Dos de los principales obstáculos para el uso de la simulación basada en agentes en su práctica son (a) la escalabilidad cuando el análisis requiere modelos muy grandes, y (b) su facilidad de uso particularmente en usuarios que no tienen experiencia en programación. Nuestro enfoque propone una solución para ambos retos. Por una parte, proponemos una solución a la simulación a gran escala de sistemas sociales en un entorno paralelo. Mostramos su potencial estudiando su rendimiento, identificando los factores que la hacen más sensible al tiempo de ejecución e investigando el impacto de tres configuraciones conocidas de la arquitectura. Puesto que la aplicación de la simulación paralela en demografía es nueva, es útil calcular el efecto de estos factores en el rendimiento de la metodología que proponemos. Por otra parte, el entorno desarrollado incluye una interface gráfica de usuario que permite a usuarios sin experiencia en programación especificar modelos demográficos basados en agentes y ejecutarlos de forma transparente en un entorno paralelo. Con este enfoque, ayudamos a superar una gran barrera en el uso de la simulación aunque un conocimiento técnico para ejecutar escenarios en una arquitectura de altas prestaciones sea necesario. Finalmente, presentamos dos casos de estudio que ponen de manifiesto el alcance de nuestro enfoque para las ciencias sociales. El primero realiza un análisis de la evolución de la población gambiana emigrada a España entre 2001 y 2011, un periodo especialmente relevante para las inmigraciones en España. El segundo caso simula los cambios sociodemográficos de Corea del Sud durante cien años. El objetivo es mostrar lo que nuestra metodología puede aportar para el estudio en profundidad de procesos demográficos. Nuestros resultados muestran que la modelización basada en agentes puede ser de gran utilidad en demografía. Así mismo, el uso de un entorno de computación paralelo nos permite simular la demografía poblacional a gran escala.
3
Needham, Jessica. "Harnessing demographic data for cross-scale analysis of forest dynamics." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2016. https://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:156850fa-3148-45a6-b2f8-ada9dd3f6a7f.
Full textAbstract:
Forests are a critical biome but are under threat from unprecedented global change. The need to understand forest dynamics across spatial, temporal and biological scales has never been greater. Critical to this will be understanding how the demographic rates of individuals translate into patterns of species diversity, biomass and carbon turnover at much larger scales. In this thesis, I present a modelling framework focussed on demography. In Chapter 2, I introduce methods for translating forest inventory data into population models that account for the size-dependency of vital rates and persistent differences in individual performance. Outbreaks of forest pest and pathogens are increasing in frequency and severity, with consequences for biodiversity and forest structure. In Chapter 3, I explore the impact of ash dieback on the community dynamics of a British woodland, describing a spatially explicit individual based model that captures the effect of an opening of the canopy on local competitive interactions. Chapter 4 introduces methods to infer the impact of historical deer herbivory on the juvenile survival of forest trees. The approach is generalisable and could be applied to any forest in which patterns of regeneration and community structure have been impacted by periodic disturbance (e.g. forest fires). Finding meaningful ways of incorporating species diversity into global vegetation models is increasingly recognised as a research priority. In Chapter 5, I explore the diversity of demographic rates in a tropical forest community and identify groups of species with similar life history strategies. I discuss the potential of integrating demographic and physiological traits as a way to aggregate species for inclusion in global models. In summary, translating measurements of individuals into population dynamics provides opportunities to both explore small-scale community responses to disturbance events, and to feed into much larger scale vegetation models.
4
Sarferaz, Samad. "Essays on business cycle analysis and demography." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/16151.
Full textAbstract:
Diese Arbeit besteht aus vier Essays, die empirische und methodische Beiträge zur Messung von Konjunkturzyklen und deren Zusammenhänge zu demographischen Variablen liefern. Der erste Essay analysiert unter Zuhilfenahme eines Bayesianischen Dynamischen Faktormodelles die Volatilität des US-amerikanischen Konjunkturzyklus seit 1867. In dem Essay wird gezeigt, dass die Volatilität in der Periode vor dem Ersten Weltkrieg und nachdem Zweiten Weltkrieg niedriger war als in der Zwischenkriegszeit. Eine geringere Volatilität für die Periode nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg im Vergleich zu der Periode vor dem Ersten Weltkrieg kann nicht bestätigt werden. Der zweite Essay hebt die Bayesianischen Eigenschaften bezüglich dynamischer Faktormodelle hervor. Der Essay zeigt, dass die ganze Analyse hindurch - im Gegensatz zu klassischen Ansätzen - keine Annahmen an die Persistenz der Zeitreihen getroffen werden muss. Des Weiteren wird veranschaulicht, wie im Bayesianischen Rahmen die Anzahl der Faktoren bestimmt werden kann. Der dritte Essay entwickelt einen neuen Ansatz, um altersspezifische Sterblichkeitsraten zu modellieren. Kovariate werden mit einbezogen und ihre Dynamik wird gemeinsam mit der von latenten Variablen, die allen Alterklassen zugrunde liegen, modelliert. Die Resultate bestätigen, dass makroökonomische Variablen Prognosekraft für die Sterblichkeit beinhalten. Im vierten Essay werden makroökonomischen Zeitreihen zusammen mit altersspezifischen Sterblichkeitsraten einer strukturellen Analyse unterzogen. Es wird gezeigt, dass sich die Sterblichkeit von jungen Erwachsenen in Abhängigkeit von Konjunkturzyklen deutlich von den der anderen Alterklassen unterscheidet. Daher sollte in solchen Analysen, um Scheinkorrelation vorzubeugen, zwischen den einzelnen Altersklassen differenziert werden.The thesis consists of four essays, which make empirical and methodological contributions to the fields of business cycle analysis and demography. The first essay presents insights on U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867 derived from a Bayesian dynamic factor model. The essay finds that volatility increased in the interwar periods, which is reversed after World War II. While evidence can be generated of postwar moderation relative to pre-1914, this evidence is not robust to structural change, implemented by time-varying factor loadings. The second essay scrutinizes Bayesian features in dynamic index models. The essay shows that large-scale datasets can be used in levels throughout the whole analysis, without any pre-assumption on the persistence. Furthermore, the essay shows how to determine the number of factors accurately by computing the Bayes factor. The third essay presents a new way to model age-specific mortality rates. Covariates are incorporated and their dynamics are jointly modeled with the latent variables underlying mortality of all age classes. In contrast to the literature, a similar development of adjacent age groups is assured, allowing for consistent forecasts. The essay demonstrates that time series of covariates contain predictive power for age-specific rates. Furthermore, it is observed that in particular parameter uncertainty is important for long-run forecasts, implicating that ignoring parameter uncertainty might yield misleadingly precise predictions. In the fourth essay the model developed in the third essay is utilized to conduct a structural analysis of macroeconomic fluctuations and age-specific mortality rates. The results reveal that the mortality of young adults, concerning business cycles, noticeably differ from the rest of the population. This implies that differentiating closely between particular age classes, might be important in order to avoid spurious results.
5
Stott, Iain Michael. "Modelling transient population dynamics and their role in ecology and evolution." Thesis, University of Exeter, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10036/3733.
Full textAbstract:
Population projection matrix (PPM) models are a central tool in ecology and evolution. They are widely used for devising population management practises for conservation, pest control, and harvesting. They are frequently employed in comparative analyses that seek to explain demographic patterns in natural populations. They are also a key tool in calculating measures of fitness for evolutionary studies. Yet, demographic analyses using projection matrices have, in some ways, failed to keep up with prevailing ecological paradigms. A common focus on long-term and equilibrium dynamics when analysing projection matrix models fits better with the outmoded view of ecosystems as stable and immutable. The more current view of ecosystems as dynamic and subject to constant extrinsic disturbances has bred new theoretical advances in the study of short-term "transient" dynamics. Transient dynamics can be very different to long-term trends, and given that ecological studies are often conducted over short timescales, they may be more relevant to research. This thesis focuses on the study of transient dynamics using population projection matrix models. The first section presents theoretical, methodological and computational advances in the study of transient dynamics. These are designed to enhance the predictive power of models, whilst keeping data requirements to a minimum, and borrow from the fields of engineering and systems control. Case studies in this section provide support for consideration of transient dynamics in population management. The second section applies some of these new methods to answer pertinent questions surrounding the ecology and evolution of transient dynamics in plants. Results show that transient dynamics exhibit patterns according to life form and phylogenetic history. Evidence suggests that this can be linked to the stage-structuring of life cycles, which opens up the possibility for new avenues of research considering the evolution of transient dynamics in nature.
6
Catlin, Daniel H. "Population Dynamics of Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus) on the Missouri River." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/27442.
Full textAbstract:
Habitat loss and predation are threatening many shorebird populations worldwide. While habitat preservation often is preferable, sometimes habitat needs to be restored or created in order to stave off immediate declines. The Great Plains population of piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) was listed as threatened in 1986, and habitat loss and predation appear to be limiting the growth of this population. On the Missouri River, piping plovers nest on sandbars, but the damming of the mainstem of the Missouri in the mid-twentieth century reduced the natural capacity of the Missouri River to create sandbar habitat. In 2004, the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) implemented a habitat creation project on the Gavins Point Reach of the Missouri River (stretch of river immediately downriver from the Gavins Point Dam) in an effort to promote recovery of piping plovers and the endangered least tern (Sternula antillarum). The USACE built 3 sandbars in 2004 â 2005 and built another sandbar on Lewis and Clark Lake in 2007. We studied the population dynamics of piping plovers in relationship to this newly engineered habitat. We monitored 623 nests on 16 sandbar complexes, to evaluate habitat selection, determine the factors affecting nesting success, and compare nesting success between natural and engineered habitat. From these 623 nests, we banded 357 adults and 685 chicks to investigate the factors affecting adult and juvenile survival. We used a logistic-exposure model to calculate nest survival. Adult and juvenile survival was calculated using Cormack-Jolly-Seber based models in Program MARK. We used the estimates from these studies to create a matrix population model for piping plovers nesting on the Gavins Point Reach. We used this model to predict the effects of engineered habitat on the population growth rate.
Piping plovers selected for engineered sandbars and against natural and natural/modified habitats. Daily survival rate (DSR) on engineered habitats was significantly higher than on natural or natural modified habitats (log odds: 2.71, 95% CI: 1.20 â 6.08). Predator exclosures around nests did not affect DSR after controlling for the effects of date, nest age, and clutch size. Piping plover juvenile survival to recruitment was negatively related to nesting density on the relatively densely populated engineered sandbars. On the less dense natural sandbars, survival to recruitment was positively correlated with density. Adult survival did not appear to be related to density within our study. Movement within the study area was related also to density. Juveniles from densely populated engineered sandbars were more likely to leave engineered habitat to nest on natural sandbars than were juveniles hatched on less densely populated engineered sandbars. Movements among sandbars by breeding adults suggested that adults preferred engineered habitat. It is possible that juveniles moved to natural habitats because they were unable to compete with adults for the more desirable engineered habitats. Adults and juveniles emigrated from the study area at a higher rate after the 2006 breeding season, a year when water discharge was higher, nesting densities were higher, and reproductive success was lower (as a result of predation) than in the other years. Deterministic modeling suggested that engineered habitat significantly increased population growth. Decreased productivity over time and associated predicted negative population growth suggest that the amount of engineered habitat created was inadequate to sustain population growth, and/or that relatively high water discharge and nesting densities coupled with low reproductive rates and high emigration rates could lead to rapid declines in the plover population. Continued research is needed to determine the effects of these factors on long-term population growth. Our results suggest that habitat creation could be a viable short-term solution to population declines in shorebird populations limited by habitat loss, but high densities and increased predation associated with habitat creation indicate that other, long-term solutions may be required.Ph. D.
7
Catlin, Daniel Herbert. "Population Dynamics of Piping Plovers (Charadrius melodus) on the Missouri River." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/27442.
Full textAbstract:
Habitat loss and predation are threatening many shorebird populations worldwide. While habitat preservation often is preferable, sometimes habitat needs to be restored or created in order to stave off immediate declines. The Great Plains population of piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) was listed as threatened in 1986, and habitat loss and predation appear to be limiting the growth of this population. On the Missouri River, piping plovers nest on sandbars, but the damming of the mainstem of the Missouri in the mid-twentieth century reduced the natural capacity of the Missouri River to create sandbar habitat. In 2004, the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) implemented a habitat creation project on the Gavins Point Reach of the Missouri River (stretch of river immediately downriver from the Gavins Point Dam) in an effort to promote recovery of piping plovers and the endangered least tern (Sternula antillarum). The USACE built 3 sandbars in 2004 â 2005 and built another sandbar on Lewis and Clark Lake in 2007. We studied the population dynamics of piping plovers in relationship to this newly engineered habitat. We monitored 623 nests on 16 sandbar complexes, to evaluate habitat selection, determine the factors affecting nesting success, and compare nesting success between natural and engineered habitat. From these 623 nests, we banded 357 adults and 685 chicks to investigate the factors affecting adult and juvenile survival. We used a logistic-exposure model to calculate nest survival. Adult and juvenile survival was calculated using Cormack-Jolly-Seber based models in Program MARK. We used the estimates from these studies to create a matrix population model for piping plovers nesting on the Gavins Point Reach. We used this model to predict the effects of engineered habitat on the population growth rate.
Piping plovers selected for engineered sandbars and against natural and natural/modified habitats. Daily survival rate (DSR) on engineered habitats was significantly higher than on natural or natural modified habitats (log odds: 2.71, 95% CI: 1.20 â 6.08). Predator exclosures around nests did not affect DSR after controlling for the effects of date, nest age, and clutch size. Piping plover juvenile survival to recruitment was negatively related to nesting density on the relatively densely populated engineered sandbars. On the less dense natural sandbars, survival to recruitment was positively correlated with density. Adult survival did not appear to be related to density within our study. Movement within the study area was related also to density. Juveniles from densely populated engineered sandbars were more likely to leave engineered habitat to nest on natural sandbars than were juveniles hatched on less densely populated engineered sandbars. Movements among sandbars by breeding adults suggested that adults preferred engineered habitat. It is possible that juveniles moved to natural habitats because they were unable to compete with adults for the more desirable engineered habitats. Adults and juveniles emigrated from the study area at a higher rate after the 2006 breeding season, a year when water discharge was higher, nesting densities were higher, and reproductive success was lower (as a result of predation) than in the other years. Deterministic modeling suggested that engineered habitat significantly increased population growth. Decreased productivity over time and associated predicted negative population growth suggest that the amount of engineered habitat created was inadequate to sustain population growth, and/or that relatively high water discharge and nesting densities coupled with low reproductive rates and high emigration rates could lead to rapid declines in the plover population. Continued research is needed to determine the effects of these factors on long-term population growth. Our results suggest that habitat creation could be a viable short-term solution to population declines in shorebird populations limited by habitat loss, but high densities and increased predation associated with habitat creation indicate that other, long-term solutions may be required.Ph. D.
8
Berglind, Sven-Åke. "Population Dynamics and Conservation of the Sand Lizard (Lacerta agilis) on the Edge of its Range." Doctoral thesis, Uppsala universitet, Evolutionär funktionsgenomik, 2005. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-5750.
Full textAbstract:
The sand lizard (Lacerta agilis) reaches the northern periphery of its distribution in south-central Sweden, where small, isolated relict populations occur in pine heath forests on sandy sediments. Modern forestry and fire suppression have reduced the amount of suitable open habitat for the species in this area and seem to be important for its decline. Main objectives of this thesis were to evaluate the efficiency of different management strategies, and if the sand lizard can function as an umbrella species for biodiversity conservation. Over a 16-year period, the estimated annual numbers of adult females in each of two study populations fluctuated between 23 and 3. Simulations of stochastic future population growth showed that the risk of extinction was highly dependent on population growth rate, which in turn was strongly affected by juvenile survival as indicated by elasticity analysis. Simulations of population growth for 50 years showed that the quasi-extinction risk (threshold ≤ 10 females) was > 56% for patches ≤ 1 ha; which is the observed average size of suitable habitat for inhabited patches during a 10-year period. In managed metapopulation networks with highly co-fluctuating local populations, among-population dispersal was not important to reduce extinction risks over a 50-year horizon. In the field the preferred microhabitat of sand lizards was successfully restored using tree felling and patch-soil scarification. The lizards gradually colonized the restored patches, and 16 years after restoration, sand lizards where mainly found there. Pine-heath area, and patch area within individual pine heaths, were of major importance for long-term population persistence at regional and landscape scales, respectively. Analyses of nested species subsets and an umbrella index suggest that the sand lizard can be a useful cross-taxonomic umbrella species on both scales for other red-listed species.
9
Landry, Maude. "La fécondité des Indiennes inscrites en fonction du traité historique d’affiliation." Thèse, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/1866/19079.
Full textAbstract:
L’objectif de la présente étude est de documenter la fécondité des Indiennes inscrites au Canada en fonction du traité historique d’affiliation. Les traités historiques sont des ententes légales qui lient le gouvernement du Canada et certains membres des Premières Nations et qui décrivent, notamment, les dispositions prévues à leur égard pour compenser la cession de leurs terres. Mêmes si les traités ont principalement une fonction légale, ils regroupent aussi des individus qui partagent des caractéristiques communes sur le plan culturel, linguistique, socioéconomique, territorial et historique.
À partir de données extraites du Registre des Indiens, nous avons produit l’indice synthétique de fécondité (ISF) pour chacune des populations affiliées aux traités historiques pour les périodes 1994-1998, 1999-2003 et 2004-2008. Nous voulions savoir si la fécondité des Indiennes inscrites différait en fonction du traité d’affiliation, si on observait des changements dans le temps et si de grandes tendances pouvaient être identifiées selon les régions couvertes par les traités.
Des différences importantes sont relevées, particulièrement entre les traités numérotés qui couvrent les Prairies et les traités de l’est du pays. Étant donné l’absence dans le Registre des Indiens, d’informations sur les caractéristiques sociales, culturelles et économiques des populations affiliées aux différents traités, il n’est pas possible d’avancer des explications précises concernant ces écarts. Toutefois, il est possible de proposer une association entre la fécondité du moment et certaines caractéristiques des populations affiliées aux traités historiques et les dimensions géographique et historique des traités.This research aims to document the fertility of registered Indians in Canada in relation to their affiliation with historic treaties. The historic treaties are legal agreements, between the government of Canada and certain members of the First Nations, which describe lands surrendered and related compensation. Although the treaties have mainly a legal role, they apply to Indigenous peoples sharing similar characteristics along cultural, linguistic, socioeconomic, territorial and historical lines. We used anonymized data extracted from the Indian Register to produce the total fertility rate (TFR) for the population concerned by each historic treaty for the periods 1994-1998, 1999-2003 and 2004-2008. We wanted to know if the fertility of registered Indians differed by treaty memberships, if we observed changes over time and if notable trends could be identified depending on the regions covered by the treaties. Our analyses show that important differences exist, particularly between the numbered treaties, which cover the Prairies provinces, and the treaties populations of Eastern Canada. Since the data collected by the Indian Register do not contain information on social, cultural and economic characteristics of Indigenous peoples that could explain these differences, it is not possible to develop precise explanations of these variations. However, it is possible to propose an association between the fertility rate and the geographical and historic aspects of the treaties populations.
10
Fernandes, Olívia Regina Almeida. "Diversidade regional e dinâmicas demográficas: área metropolitana de Lisboa 2001-2025." Master's thesis, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10362/2438.
Full textAbstract:
Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Gestão de InformaçãoA grande importância da AML no contexto nacional, seja em termos demográficos, seja sobretudo a nível económico e social, para além de político, justifica a realização de um estudo que permita compreender e avaliar o fenómeno das dinâmicas recentes desta região político-administrativa. Como tal, numa primeira abordagem ao problema procedeu-se à caracterização ecológica da região, que aborda os 18 concelhos que fazem parte da mesma, e a região num todo, para posteriormente se realizar, de forma mais crítica e completa, a caracterização da situação demográfica da AML entre 1990 e 2001. Na parte final procurámos enumerar o que nos parecem ser as potencialidades e vulnerabilidades da região, para que seja possível a elaboração de estratégias que fomentem o seu desenvolvimento futuro. Este estudo é baseado na aplicação dos conceitos e metodologias de análise demográfica e prospectiva aos resultados dos Censos de 1991 e 2001 e às Estatísticas Demográficas, ambos publicados pelo Instituto Nacional de Estatística1. As informações de carácter quantitativo serão complementadas, sempre que necessário, com dados de índole diversa, entendidos como necessários para compreender a complexidade da AML, não apenas em termos das dinâmicas demográficas, mas naquilo que elas reflectem a nível social e económico.
Books on the topic "Dynamic demographic analysis"
1
Schoen, Robert, ed. Dynamic Demographic Analysis. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-26603-9.
Full text
2
Family dynamics in China: A life table analysis. Madison, Wis: University of Wisconsin Press, 1991.
Find full text
3
Alain, Confesson, ed. Childbearing trends and prospects in low-fertility countries: A cohort analysis. Boston: Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2004.
Find full text
4
Robert, Engelman, Anastasion Daniele, and Population Action International, eds. The security demographic: Population and civil conflict after the Cold War. Washington, D.C: Population Action International, 2003.
Find full text
5
Unnatural selection: Choosing boys over girls, and the consequences of a world full of men. New York: PublicAffairs, 2011.
Find full text
8
Ebenstein, Avraham, and Ethan J. Sharygin. Demographic Change, Prostitution, and Sexually Transmitted Infection Rates in China. Edited by Scott Cunningham and Manisha Shah. Oxford University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199915248.013.23.
Full textAbstract:
China has experienced an explosion in the sex ratio at birth, with 25 million more men than women younger than 20 (2005 census). This chapter examines the implications of large numbers of men failing to marry on the supply-and-demand dynamics of sex work, with a focus on how this affects the prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs). The chapter begins with a history of prostitution in China and describes the massive increase in sex work following economic reforms in the late 1970s. It then analyzes the current dynamics of demand and supply for sex work in China, using national census data and detailed microdata on sex workers. The authors find a clear link between high-population sex ratios, the prevalence of sex work, and STI rates. The analysis concludes with projections for the future and a discussion of policy responses in light of an anticipated increase in sex work.
9
Schneider, Florian. Selling Sovereignty on the Web. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190876791.003.0006.
Full textAbstract:
Chapter 6 examines the East China Sea dispute on China’s web. This includes an analysis of the official Chinese Diaoyu Islands website, but also of various military news portals and the web presence of non-governmental advocacy groups. While the issue is more dynamic, and notably involves more commercial actors, than the Nanjing Massacre case of the previous chapter, Chinese sites nevertheless fall back on traditional mass-media scripts. The analysis also reveals how this nationalist topic ‘sells’ in digital China: the prominent web resources make heavy use of advertising pop-ups and click-bait, and they juxtapose nationalist imagery with violence, pornography, and gambling offers. The chapter argues that, on China’s web, the issue of the East China Sea dispute is governed by a tacit consensus between political and commercial actors to commodify nationalist symbols for consumption by a specific target demographic, and that this practice shifts Sino–Japan discourses into chauvinistic directions.
10
Chu, C. Y. Cyrus. Population Dynamics. Oxford University Press, 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780195121582.001.0001.
Full textAbstract:
Population Dynamics fills the gap between the classical supply-side population theory of Malthus and the modern demand-side theory of economic demography. In doing so, author Cyrus Chu investigates specifically the dynamic macro implications of various static micro family economic decisions. Holding the characteristic composition of the macro population to always be an aggregate result of some corresponding individual micro decision, Chu extends his research on the fertility-related decisions of families to an analysis of other economic determinations. Within this framework, Chu studies the income distribution, attitude composition, job structure, and aggregate savings and pensions of the population. While in some cases a micro-macro connection is easily established under regular behavioral assumptions, in several chapters Chu enlists the mathematical tool of branching processes to determine the connection. Offering a wealth of detail, this book provides a balanced discussion of background motivation, theoretical characterization, and empirical evidence in an effort to bring about a renewal in the economic approach to population dynamics. This welcome addition to the research and theory of economic demography will interest professional economists as well as professors and graduate students of economics.
Book chapters on the topic "Dynamic demographic analysis"
1
Schoen, Robert. "Introduction." In Dynamic Demographic Analysis, 1–6. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-26603-9_1.
Full text
2
Schoen, Robert. "The Continuing Retreat of Marriage: Figures from Marital Status Life Tables for United States Females, 2000–2005 and 2005–2010." In Dynamic Demographic Analysis, 203–15. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-26603-9_10.
Full text
3
Bradatan, Cristina. "Emigration and The Stable Population Model: Migration Effects on the Demographic Structure of the Sending Country." In Dynamic Demographic Analysis, 217–25. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-26603-9_11.
Full text
4
Swanson, David A., Lucky M. Tedrow, and Jack Baker. "Exploring Stable Population Concepts from the Perspective of Cohort Change Ratios: Estimating the Time to Stability and Intrinsic r from Initial Information and Components of Change." In Dynamic Demographic Analysis, 227–58. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-26603-9_12.
Full text
5
Ordorica-Mellado, Manuel, and Víctor M. García-Guerrero. "Estimating the Demographic Dynamic of Small Areas with the Kalman Filter." In Dynamic Demographic Analysis, 261–71. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-26603-9_13.
Full text
6
Li, Nan. "Are the Pension Systems of Low Fertility Populations Sustainable?" In Dynamic Demographic Analysis, 273–83. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-26603-9_14.
Full text
7
Ševčíková, Hana, Nan Li, Vladimíra Kantorová, Patrick Gerland, and Adrian E. Raftery. "Age-Specific Mortality and Fertility Rates for Probabilistic Population Projections." In Dynamic Demographic Analysis, 285–310. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-26603-9_15.
Full text
8
Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam, and Y. Claire Yang. "Modeling the Evolution of Age and Cohort Effects." In Dynamic Demographic Analysis, 313–35. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-26603-9_16.
Full text
9
Xu, Minle, and Daniel A. Powers. "Bayesian Ridge Estimation of Age-Period-Cohort Models." In Dynamic Demographic Analysis, 337–59. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-26603-9_17.
Full text
10
Wrigley-Field, Elizabeth, and Felix Elwert. "Erratum: Chapter 9 Mortality Crossovers from Dynamic Subpopulation Reordering." In Dynamic Demographic Analysis, E1. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-26603-9_18.
Full textConference papers on the topic "Dynamic demographic analysis"
1
Ржавская, И. А. "CALCULATION OF THE QUALITY OF LIFE INDEX OF THE URBAN POPULATION OF THE BAIKAL REGION." In Геосистемы Северо-Восточной Азии. Crossref, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.35735/tig.2021.84.49.030.
Full textAbstract:
В представленной работе отражены социально-экономические и демографические аспекты качества жизни городского населения. Анализ рассматриваемого показателя проводился по пяти ключевым сферам качества жизни – демографическая ситуация, здравоохранение, социальное обеспечения, трудовая и образовательная сферы. На основе анализа ряда статистических данных были выявлены наиболее динамичные показатели, отражающие существенные различия между исследуемыми городами Байкальского региона – Иркутском, Улан-Удэ и Читой. Для оценки качества жизни городского населения была разработана авторская методика расчета через одноименный индекс. В статье также представлено краткое описание методики и результаты ее апробации на массиве статистических данных по крупным городам Байкальского региона. The presented work reflects the socio-economic and demographic aspects of the quality of life of the urban population. The analysis of this indicator was carried out in five key areas of quality of life – demographic situation, health, social security, labor and education. Based on the analysis of a number of statistical data, the most dynamic indicators were identified, reflecting significant differences between the studied cities of the Baikal region – Irkutsk, Ulan-Ude and Chita. To assess the quality of life of the urban population, the author's method of calculation was developed using the index of the same name. The article also provides a brief description of the methodology and the results of its testing on an array of statistical data on large cities in the Baikal region.
2
Dökmen, Gökhan, and Özcan Sezer. "The Relationship between Public Expenditure and Bureaucratic Quality: The Case of Eurasian Economies." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c04.00697.
Full textAbstract:
One of the controversial issues among researchers in the field of public finance is estimating the determinants of public expenditures. It’s argued that public expenditure is determined by economic as well as demographic, social and political variables. One of the important element of political variables is bureaucracy. If bureaucracy, as one of the main actors of political decision making process, works in quality, effectiveness and efficiency would occur in publicly provided goods and services. In parallel with the good quality of bureaucracy, the size of state would become smaller. The purpose of this study is to test empirically between efficient bureaucracy and public expenditure, using dynamic panel data analysis of 6 Eurasian Economic Community countries from 1998 to 2011. This study finds evidence that existence of bureaucratic quality reduces the public expenditures.
3
Mor, Tal, and Yair Rezek. "Pro-Natalism Policy, Demography and Democracy - Nonlinear Dynamics Analysis." In 2nd International Conference on Complexity, Future Information Systems and Risk. SCITEPRESS - Science and Technology Publications, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.5220/0006367301240129.
Full text
4
Nunes, Alcina, and Elsa Sarmento. "A semi-parametric survival analysis of business demography dynamics in Portugal." In The 6th International Scientific Conference "Business and Management 2010". Vilnius, Lithuania: Vilnius Gediminas Technical University Publishing House Technika, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.3846/bm.2010.089.
Full text
5
Herdaetha, Adriesti, Aris Sudiyanto, RB Sumanto, Endang Sutisna Suleman, and Wijaya Kusuma. "Social Capital Phenomenology Study among People Who Treat A Mental Disorder Caregivers." In The 7th International Conference on Public Health 2020. Masters Program in Public Health, Universitas Sebelas Maret, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.26911/the7thicph.01.40.
Full textAbstract:
ABSTRACT Background: It’s a stressor to have a family of mental illnesses. Financial, social, psychological, and physical burdens are created by looking after people with mental disorders. For the patient, the family is the informal caregiver. It is important to discuss, with a great burden, how social capital can be developed and how the role of social capital is played in treating people with mental disorders. The research was carried out on Javanese individuals who have a cultural structure that prioritizes the importance of peace in collective life. Not only the nuclear family, but also the extended family and the larger community are active in the life of Javanese society. This study aimed to describe the social capital phenomenology study among people who treat mental disorder caregivers. Subjects and Method: This was a qualitative study using a phenomenological study approach. The study was carried out in Surakarta City, Central Java, in September and October 2019. These study subjects were people who were carers for people with mental disorders. The sample was taken using purposive sampling technique. Data were collected using in-depth interviews and observation. Qualitative data analysis was obtained by means of data reduction, data presentation, and drawing conclusions and verification. Data reliability was carried out using NVivo 12 software. Data validity was done by matching the results of interviews with observations, as well as multiple interviews. Results: Data was collected from four respondents with different demographic backgrounds. Six themes were obtained, namely 1) trust in God, government, family, and neighbors; 2) The role of family and neighbors in seeking help; 3) The role of family and neighbors in caring for patients; 4) building social networks; 5) Participation in society; and 6) Social capital is dynamic. Conclusion: The respondents are found to have the same social cognitive capital, but different social structural capital. The level of education, the economic level, self-esteem, and the behavior of people with mental disorders are influenced by structural social capital. Family and neighbors can have a positive or negative role in looking after people with mental disorders. They also play a role in the decision to seek assistance for individuals with mental disorders. Keywords: mental disorders, carers, social capital Correspondence: Adriesti Herdaetha. Doctoral Program of Community Development / Empowerment, Universitas Sebelas Maret. Jl. Ir. Sutami 36A, Surakarta, Central Java. Email: aherdaetha@gmail.com. Mobile: +628122582995 DOI: https://doi.org/10.26911/the7thicph.01.40
6
Widodo, Bambang Sigit, Nugroho Hari Purnomo, and Muzayanah. "Analysis of Problem Solving Skill of Demographic Dynamics in Light of Gender Perspective Among Students of Different Cognitive Styles (FI and FD) at SMAN 1 Wonoayu in Sidoarjo." In 3rd International Conference on Social Sciences (ICSS 2020). Paris, France: Atlantis Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/assehr.k.201014.053.
Full text
7
Muntele, Ionel, and Alexandru Banica. "Dinamica populației principalelor aglomerații urbane din Europa." In Provocări şi tendinţe actuale în cercetarea componentelor naturale şi socio-economice ale ecosistemelor urbane şi rurale. Institute of Ecology and Geography, Republic of Moldova, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.53380/9789975891608.02.
Full textAbstract:
Dynamics ot the population of the main urban aglomerations in Europe (1980-2019). Using several available databases, all based on official information, the population evolution from the main European urban agglomerations (those with a minimum of 1000 thousand inhabitants) was reconstructed. The period considered was 1980-2019 in order to capture the changes generated by the disappearance of the iron curtain and the totalitarian regimes. The analysis based on the ascending hierarchical classification, carried out in XLSTAT, shows the persistence of strong east-west disparities but also the appearance of disparities, both between the former communist states and in the west of the continent. The generalization of the urban sprawl process, with the agglomeration of the population in the suburban areas was neither uniform nor constant over time. An urban resilience has played an important role, the ability to overcome the systemic crisis induced in the east of the continent by the transition to the market economy or in the west, to adapt to the new knowledge-based economy. Beyond the manifestation of these disparities that seem to be the expression of a historical inertia, a tendency of convergence at the continental level, similar to the one that was manifested in the case of the demographic transition after 1990, is timid.
8
Hanzl, Malgorzata, Lia Maria Dias Bezerra, Anna Aneta Tomczak, and Robert Warsza. "A quest to quantify urban sustainability. Assessing incongruous growth." In 24th ISUF 2017 - City and Territory in the Globalization Age. Valencia: Universitat Politècnica València, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.4995/isuf2017.2017.5096.
Full textAbstract:
Urban planners, politicians and citizens need comprehensive and clear information in order to conduct or get involved into successful evidence based planning and policy making. The objective to improve the quality of planning outcomes both at the local and regional level necessitates in creation of design mechanisms which could help planners verify and support their approach with quantitative analyses and simulation tools. While this sort of problems has already been explored for a while, with an abundant literature on the topic, there still remains a lot to say, especially when it comes to evaluation of plans, such as local plans of urban development, general plans, studies for the municipalities or larger, inter-municipal associations. Along with the implementation of INSPIRE Directive in Europe, data for these analyses, so far patchy and incomplete, becomes slowly but progressively available. The use of quantitative analyses may refer to several aspects of physical form, such as connectivity, continuity of ecological systems, conciseness of built structures and urban boundary, analyses of the morphology of urban tissue, etc. Completed with the qualitative description and enriched with the socio-cultural preconditions assessment they may give a comprehensive picture both of the current and the planned state. The current paper presents an experience of mapping typologies of residential structures in the settlements neighbouring Lodz, Poland, with the objective to assess the existing densities and planned development capacities against the backdrop of demographic dynamics in these region.References Berghauser-Pont, M. and Haupt, P. (2010) Space, Density and Urban Form (Technische Universiteit Delft, Delft). Faludi, A. and Waterhout, B. (2006) ‘Introducing Evidence-Based Planning’, disP Plan. Rev. 165, pp.4–13. Laconte, P. (2016) ‘Introduction: assessing the assessments’, in Laconte, P. and Gossop, C. (eds.) Sustainable Cities. Assessing the Performance and Practice of Urban Environments. (I.B. Tauris, London, New York) 1–14. Newman, P. and Kenworthy, J. (1999) Sustainability and cities: overcoming automobile dependence (University of Chicago Press, Chicago). Rapoport, A. (1975) ‘Toward a Redefinition of Density’, Environment and Behavior 7(2), 133–158.
9
BOMBIAK, Edyta, and Adam MARCYSIAK. "RURAL HUMAN CAPITAL AS A DETERMINANT OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT." In RURAL DEVELOPMENT. Aleksandras Stulginskis University, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.15544/rd.2017.133.
Full textAbstract:
Human capital is an economic category which is increasingly applied in the models of economic growth and development. Many studies have demonstrated its positive effect on economic development at the national and regional levels. The level of development of rural areas is also strongly correlated with the human factor. The objective of the study was to carry out a quantitative and qualitative diagnosis of the situation of human capital across rural areas in Poland and to indicate the main challenges associated with the shaping of this capital in the context of economic growth simulation. The method used to meet the objective was a review of source literature and an analysis of statistical data from the Central Statistical Office (GUS) with the application of dynamics and structure indices. In the course of research, it was established that the main trends affecting the situation of human resource capital across rural areas in Poland are: the ageing of the rural population, as a dominant negative trend, and a systematic, though slow, increase in the level of education, as a dominant positive trend. It was determined that unfavorable demographic transformations of rural communities involve the risk of limiting economic activities of the elderly, and at the same time, also a decrease in their economic independence and an increase in the social burden resulting therefrom. On the other hand, the observed rise in the level of education and economic activity may accelerate the beneficial transformations of the area structure of agricultural farms, for it contributes to the acceleration of migration of the rural population to other, non-agricultural professions. In this context, taking actions, both nationally and regionally, aiming at increasing qualifications of rural (including agricultural) populations constitutes a vital opportunity, which increases intellectual potential and competitiveness across the country and its individual regions.
10
Chen, Po Nien, and Kayvan Karimi. "The impact of a new transport system on the neighbourhoods surrounding the stations: The cases of Bermondsey and West Ham, London." In 24th ISUF 2017 - City and Territory in the Globalization Age. Valencia: Universitat Politècnica València, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.4995/isuf2017.2017.5971.
Full textAbstract:
The impact of a new transport system on the neighbourhoods surrounding the stations: The cases of Bermondsey and West Ham, London Po Nien Chen, Kayvan Karimi Space Syntax Laboratory, The Bartlett School of Architecture, University College London, UKE-mail: po-nien.chen.16@ucl.ac.uk, k.karimi@ucl.ac.uk Keywords: Space Syntax, Jubilee Line Extension, urban regeneration Conference topics and scale: Tools of analysis in urban morphology The impact of new public transport system on the towns and suburbs has been widely considered to be a significant aspect of urban development. However, the spatial configurations which could stimulate the transformation around the neighbourhoods of the station have not been clearly identified. It could be argued that the implementation of transport systems and the creation of new stations would enhance the mobility of the transport network and the accessibility around the station’s vicinity. Furthermore, the dynamics of pedestrian flow, generated by the new transport system might transform the social, cultural and economic activities around the stations. Therefore, the aims of this study are to analyse how the spatial configuration and the urban formation are affected by the implementation of stations and understand how the new stations emerge in the urban form. The Jubilee Line Extension (JLE) in East London, which started to operate in 2000, plays an essential role in connecting Central London with the recently developed financial district in the east. This study focuses on two stations located along the JLE, Bermondsey and West Ham, which have different topological and demographic characteristics. To determine whether the stations integrate cohesively with the urban environment, this study applies Space Syntax methods of spatial network analysis to evaluate the spatial characteristics and compares with GIS data of the house prices and land use distribution before and after the JLE. The results demonstrate a strong correlation between pedestrian movement and the distribution of residential and commercial activities within the street network structure. The study also reveals the strength and weakness of the stations, which are embedded within urban structures and suggests urban regeneration strategies through improving the accessibility and public space design. Reference Chorus, P., Bertolini, L., (2016) ‘Developing transit-oriented corridors: Insights from Tokyo’, International Journal of Sustainable Transportation, 10:2, 86-95. Hillier, B and Hanson, J. (1984) The Social Logic of Space (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge). Kusumo, C, M. (2005) ‘Is a railway station a central urban space? Spatial configuration study of retail distribution pattern around railway stations’, Proceedings, 5th International Space Syntax Symposium, (Delft)
Reports on the topic "Dynamic demographic analysis"
1
Taşdemir, Murat, Ethem Hakan Ergeç, Hüseyin Kaya, and Özer Selçuk. ECONOMY IN THE TURKEY OF THE FUTURE. İLKE İlim Kültür Eğitim Vakfı, December 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.26414/gt010.
Full textAbstract:
Fundamental transformations await the world’s economies in the upcoming 20 years. For Turkey to be able to achieve its desired level of prosperity, current structural problems must be solved and preemptive policies must be developed regarding global developments. For Turkey to attain prosperous and virtuous society of the future, Turkey needs a sustainable, long-term, fast-growing economy based on social justice. The Economy in the Turkey of the Future report provides a holistic vision for achieving the infrastructure of the prosperous and virtuous society of the future. The report meticulously analyzes Turkey’s contemporary economy in the light of data and presents the necessary fields to focus on for the future and which kinds of policy ought to be handled with what kind of a perspective in accordance with the advantages and disadvantages. The report touches upon three global trends and their potential impact on national economies and Turkey. It then addresses social justice, sustainability, in the context of long-term economic growth, demographic dynamics and the workforce, Islamic finance, international trade, and sectors deemed strategic. The report focuses on the structural properties that determine the long-term economy rather than short-term economic fluctuations. Many of Turkey’s short-term problems arise from the lack of long-term policies. To this end, the report’s most important emphasis is on the need for long-term policies.