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Journal articles on the topic 'Dynamic demographic analysis'
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1
Smallwood, Steve. "Dynamic Demographic Analysis." Population Studies 71, no. 1 (January 2, 2017): 135–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2016.1269973.
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Shen, J. "Spatial-Dynamic Population Systems: Analysis and Projection." Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space 26, no. 3 (March 1994): 471–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1068/a260471.
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In this paper a set of more-detailed multiregional population accounts is proposed to specify more realistically the exposure time of populations at risk for various components of population change. The concepts of population-time at risk and forward demographic rates based on the initial population are discussed. The relations of the forward demographic rates defined in this paper with the occurrence-exposure demographic rates are discussed. A more precise and straightforward multiregional population model is developed on the basis of forward demographic rates. The model is also expressed in the familiar matrix form of multiregional, cohort-survival models.
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Luski, I., and J. Weinblatt. "A dynamic analysis of fiscal pressure and demographic transition." Applied Economics 30, no. 11 (November 1, 1998): 1431–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/000368498324788.
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Croitoru, Elena Lucia. "Pension System Reform in Romania: A Dynamic Analysis of the Demographic Influence." Procedia Economics and Finance 20 (2015): 140–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s2212-5671(15)00058-1.
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Faraz, Naeem, Yasir Khan, E. F. Doungmo Goufo, Amna Anjum, and Ali Anjum. "Dynamic analysis of the mathematical model of COVID-19 with demographic effects." Zeitschrift für Naturforschung C 75, no. 11-12 (November 26, 2020): 389–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/znc-2020-0121.
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AbstractThe coronavirus is currently extremely contagious for humankind, which is a zoonotic tropical disease. The pandemic is the largest in history, affecting almost the whole world. What makes the condition the worst of all is no specific effective treatment available. In this article, we present an extended and modified form of SIR and SEIR model, respectively. We begin by investigating a simple mathematical model that describes the pandemic. Then we apply different safety measures to control the pandemic situation. The mathematical model with and without control is solved by using homotopy perturbation method. Obtained solutions have been presented graphically. Finally, we develop another mathematical model, including quarantine and hospitalization.
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Moretti, Valerio, Luca Salvati, Massimo Cecchini, and Ilaria Zambon. "A Long-Term Analysis of Demographic Processes, Socioeconomic ‘Modernization’ and Forest Expansion in a European Country." Sustainability 11, no. 2 (January 14, 2019): 388. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11020388.
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This article investigates long-term forest decline and expansion vis-à-vis demographic processes in Italy, evidencing changes in the underlying socioeconomic context considering the ‘modernization theory’. An exploratory data analysis of 58 indicators assessing five basic research dimensions (territory, demography, education, trade and agriculture) and evolving rapidly over the study period (1862–2009), was run to ascertain similarity patterns among indicators and to identify time intervals characterized by homogeneous conditions in different analysis’ domains. Complementing indicators of forest expansion, changes in population structure and dynamics allow an empirical investigation of temporal coherence among demographic and forest transitions in Italy. The time window encompassing the two World Wars, approximately between 1931 and 1951, was identified as a turning point in the forest-socioeconomic system, being characterized by two groups of indicators that follow diverging (linear vs. nonlinear) time trends. A secondary turning point was identified at the beginning of the 1970s. Distinct temporal trends in the studied indicators were also identified using multivariate statistics (before the 1930s, between the 1930s and the 1950s, between the 1950s and the 1970s, from the 1970s onwards) and represent conditions of dynamic equilibrium between socio-ecological contexts, highlighting latent transitions in both population and environment conditions. Our work definitely contributes to an empirical understanding of economic, political and social forces associated with forest transition and demographic transition in advanced economies.
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Kostromina, E. V. "Structural and dynamic analysis of demographic processes in the Republic of Mari El." Statistics and Economics, no. 2 (January 1, 2017): 70–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.21686/2500-3925-2017-2-.
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Amirusholihin and Listiono. "DEMOGRAPHIC BONUS ANALYSIS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH OF EAST JAVA." East Java Economic Journal 2, no. 1 (March 30, 2018): 8–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.53572/ejavec.v2i1.10.
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BKKBN predicts that Indonesia will get demographic bonus in 2020 until 2030. The question is whether the demographic bonus has a positive impact on the economy of East Java or even a negative impact. Based on data from BPS, by 2015 the workingage population in East Java is around 69.4 percent of the total population, while the child and old-age is 30.6 percent. The size of the working-age population is closely related to the amount of labor, which also greatly determines the amount of output on goods and services produced. This paper aims to explain how the impact of demographic bonuses on East Java's regional economy, based on the Solow model extended to include demographic variables. The analysis uses a dynamic panel model by 38 districts in East Java that have demographic bonuses in 2020 with GDP as a reference in determining the growth of economists. From these analyzes it can be seen the impact of demographic bonuses in East Java as an advantage or even create new spatial inequality between regions.
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Panchenko, Liubov F. "ПІДГОТОВКА МАЙБУТНІХ СОЦІОЛОГІВ ДО КОМП’ЮТЕРНОГО АНАЛІЗУ ДЕМОГРАФІЧНИХ ПРОЦЕСІВ І СТРУКТУР." Information Technologies and Learning Tools 65, no. 3 (July 1, 2018): 166. http://dx.doi.org/10.33407/itlt.v65i3.2034.
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In the modern era of digital globalization, it is becoming more and more important to train sociology students in the field of demographics and demographic statistics based not only on demographic theories but also on the practical application of the new computer tools and technologies, databases and Internet services. The article analyzes the capabilities of modern computer tools for the analysis of demographic processes and structures in training sociology students; substantiates the use of the R environment as a tool for analysis and graphical representation of demographic data. It presents the idea of teaching students to perform computer analysis of demographic data using a combination of Excel spreadsheets, SPSS statistical package, R environment illustrated by two examples. The first example concerns building and comparing the gender-age pyramid of the population of Ukraine at different years and includes searching for the relevant data, building the pyramid using standard diagram building Excel tools, using SPSS tools (Chart Builder, Histogram, Population Pyramid), and using pyramid package of R environment. The second example relates to calculation of childcare and grandparent care load coefficients, visualizing their dynamics, and includes an introduction to the demographic passport of Ukraine. The article presents the developed methodological support for teaching sociology students to perform demographic data analysis, including presentation-lectures on the fundamental principles of work in R and R Studio environment, laboratory works (theory summary, detailed operative instructions, control questions, tasks for students ‘ independent work); data packages attached to every assignment. The author has analyzed the didactic capabilities of the free Gapminder service that includes the list of the tools titled `Play with Data`, bubble chart, maps, ranking, trends, age pyramids. This provides colorful and dynamic data visualization for chosen demographic criteria (depending on the research objectives) by countries and continents over time that stimulates the students to conduct additional scientific research.
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Schwendicke, F., J. Krois, and R. Jordan. "Can We Predict Usage of Dental Services? An Analysis from Germany 2000 to 2015." JDR Clinical & Translational Research 5, no. 4 (February 5, 2020): 349–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2380084420904928.
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Objectives: We aimed to predict the usage of dental services in Germany from 2000 to 2015 based on epidemiologic and demographic data, and to compare these predictions against claims within the statutory health insurance. Methods: Indicators for operative (number of coronally decayed or filled teeth, root surface caries lesions, and fillings), prosthetic (number of missing teeth), and periodontal treatment needs (number of teeth with probing pocket depths (PPDs) ≥ 4 mm) from nationally representative German Oral Health Studies (1997, 2005, 2014) were cross-sectionally interpolated across age and time, and combined with year- and age-specific population estimates. These, as well as the number of children eligible for individual preventive services (aged 6 to 17 y), were adjusted for age- and time-specific insurance status and services’ utilization to yield predicted usage of operative, prosthetic, periodontal, and preventive services. Cumulative annual usage in these 4 services groups were compared against aggregations of a total of 24 claims positions from the statutory German health insurance. Results: Morbidity, utilization, and demography were highly dynamic across age groups and over time. Despite improvements of individual oral health, predicted usage of dental services did not decrease over time, but increased mainly due to usage shifts from younger (shrinking) to older (growing) age groups. Predicted usage of operative services increased between 2000 and 2015 (from 52 million to 56 million, +7.8%); predictions largely agreed with claimed services (root mean square error [RMSE] 1.9 million services, error range −4.6/+3.8%). Prosthetic services increased (from 2.4 million to 2.6 million, +11.9%), with near perfect agreement to claimed data [RMSE 0.1 million services, error range −8.3/+3.9%]). Periodontal services also increased (from 21 million to 27 million, +25.9%; RMSE 5.2 million services, error range +21.9/+36.5%), as did preventive services (from 22 million to 27 million, +20.4%; RMSE 3 million, error range −13.7/−4.7%). Conclusion: Predicting dental services seems viable when accounting for the joint dynamics of morbidity, utilization, and demographics. Knowledge Transfer Statement: Based on epidemiologic and demographic data, predicting usage of certain dental services is viable when accounting for the dynamics of morbidity, utilization, and demographics.
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Salvati, Luca, Margherita Carlucci, Pere Serra, and Ilaria Zambon. "Demographic Transitions and Socioeconomic Development in Italy, 1862–2009: A Brief Overview." Sustainability 11, no. 1 (January 6, 2019): 242. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11010242.
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The present study investigates long-term population dynamics in Italy, 1862–2009, in light of Demographic Transitions (DTs). Under the assumption that DTs are multidimensional processes of change involving several aspects, including population structure and dynamics, an exploratory analysis was carried out in this study to verify temporal coherency of 15 indicators in Italy, identifying homogeneous time periods with distinct demographic characteristics. Indicators’ trends were identified using a multivariate statistical approach. The results of this study allow empirical testing of the assumption of temporal coherence between different aspects of a long-term DT, distinguishing distinctive population dynamics and the differential impact on population structure over two centuries. After a relatively long period of demographic stability, the time window encompassing the two World Wars—approximately between 1921 and 1951—was identified as a primary turning point of population dynamics in Italy; a second turning point was estimated at the beginning of the 1970s. These time intervals may represent conditions of dynamic equilibrium between demographic and socioeconomic contexts, highlighting latent system transitions. The study concludes by outlining the importance of a more effective integration of demographic transition theories into a broader sustainability framework, and implementing a diachronic analysis of political, economic, and social forces associated with population dynamics in both advanced economies and emerging countries.
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Pietroń, Roman. "Demographic and economic aspects of the pension system in Poland — a dynamic modelling approach." Ekonomia 25, no. 4 (January 2, 2020): 9–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.19195/2658-1310.25.4.1.
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Demographic and economic aspects of the pension system in Poland —a dynamic modelling approachThe paper considers a hypothesis that some dynamic features of the Polish national and public pension system follow typical mental, generic and archetypal models, as a result of many demographic, macroeconomic, political and also global factors, particularly closed-loop feedback relations with delays and amplifi cations. There are some important messages in the paper for social insurance policies design, structures and management, the meaning of data mining and collection, and for model refi nement with modelling approaches in a systems’ thinking way. The shortcomings of national social insurance systems in dealing more eff ectively with upstream social insurance risk prevention in the population are systemic and include also a postulate to empower members of the population in order to involve them in their own, entrepreneurial downstream care. The paper contains a system dynamics SD point of view, as a method of macroscopic, continuous simulation modelling, to surface and explain some cycles and discrepancies between demography, policies, as well as the system’s aspects of the national pension system. The conceptual, formal and simulation model presented in the paper, followed by some experiments’ results, applies the SD method approach with causal loop diagrams CLD and stock-and-fl ow diagrams SFD, displaying delays, amplifi cations and structure cycle dynamics in the national pension system. Further research should concentrate on the detailed analysis of additional modelling requirements in order to conduct more profound multi-factor experiments to forecast and evaluate contemporary national politics, and to test some new concepts in social insurance.
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Hrabánková, M., L. Svatošová, and I. Boháčková. "Monitoring of regional development dynamics with use of process analysis." Agricultural Economics (Zemědělská ekonomika) 51, No. 3 (February 20, 2012): 112–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.17221/5083-agricecon.
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From the present course of solution of the project “Creation of diagnostic methods set for monitoring efficiency of support from the EU funds” knowledge, it resulted that the regional development potential, if you like the potential of regional development, is necessary to be perceived as a dynamic social-economic category, on which many influencing factors have an effect and is which in the region connected with space, in which many quantitative and qualitative processes take place. In the solved project, it is dealt with a complex conception of all factors influencing natural potential and processes connected with it, demographic, economic and social potential, and processes which work upon the change of this potential. On the base of the hitherto selected criteria, it has been possible to compare the social-economic development and economic efficiency of particular districts, resp. regions, and their following aggregation in the frame of regions of cohesion.
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Gariazzo, Claudio, Armando Pelliccioni, and Maria Paola Bogliolo. "Spatiotemporal Analysis of Urban Mobility Using Aggregate Mobile Phone Derived Presence and Demographic Data: A Case Study in the City of Rome, Italy." Data 4, no. 1 (January 8, 2019): 8. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/data4010008.
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Urban mobility is known to have a relevant impact on work related car accidents especially during commuting. It is characterized by highly dynamic spatial–temporal variability. There are open questions about the size of this phenomenon; its spatial, temporal, and demographic characteristics; and driving mechanisms. A case study is here presented for the city of Rome, Italy. High-resolution population presence and demographic data, derived from mobile phone traffic, were used. Hourly profiles of a defined mobility factor (NPM) were calculated for a gridded domain during working days and cluster analyzed to obtain mean diurnal NPM mobility patterns. Age distributions of the population were calculated from demographic data to get insight in the type of population involved in mobility, and spatially linked with the mobility patterns. Census data about production units and their employees were related with the classified NPM mobility patterns. Seven different NPM mobility patterns were identified and mapped over the study area. The mobility slightly deviates from the census-based demography (0.15 on average, in a range of 0 to 1). The number of employees per 100 inhabitants was found to be the main driving mechanism of mobility. Finally, contributions of people employed in different economic macrocategories were assigned to each mobility time-pattern. Results provide a deeper knowledge of urban dynamics and their driving mechanisms in Rome.
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Kunduzai Myrzashnovna, Yerimbetova, and . "Population Engineering on Dynamic Process of Migration and Demographic Processes in Kazakhstan." International Journal of Engineering & Technology 7, no. 4.7 (September 27, 2018): 254. http://dx.doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i4.7.20559.
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Modern migration is a dynamic and complex social phenomenon. It is characterized by significant scale and diversity, due to a complex of factors: socio-economic, political, ethnic, religious, environmental, demographic and others. The article reveals the demographic processes of the Republic of Kazakhstan, its specific features, characteristics, and development factors, as well as mechanisms for regulating internal migration, its population dynamics and targeted measures for health and life quality improving of the citizens of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Studies have revealed that the quality of life and health of the citizens of the Republic of Kazakhstan has improved. In recent years, the average life expectancy in Kazakhstan has exceeded 70 years. Economic growth has become stable. Today the world knows Kazakhstan as a peace-loving country, which stands for mutually beneficial cooperation and integration. Identified the necessary directions for further development, and conducted an analysis of the existing development programs of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
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Yao, Christian, Kaye Thorn, and Noeleen Doherty. "Boundarylessness as a dynamic construct: the case of Chinese early career expatriates." Career Development International 19, no. 6 (October 7, 2014): 683–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/cdi-11-2013-0142.
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Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the dynamic nature of boundaryless careers of Chinese early career corporate expatriates. It also investigates the demographic and contextual factors influencing individual perceived career mobility. Design/methodology/approach – Qualitative, semi-structured interviews with 31 Chinese corporate expatriates were conducted and a template analysis approach was used to analyze the data. Findings – Results suggest that Chinese early career corporate expatriates’ perceptions of boundaries as facilitating or limiting career mobility change over time. Changing boundary properties are found to be linked to the salience of Chinese cultural values, demographics and career/life stages. Based on expatriates’ narratives, this study highlights how these demographic and contextual factors shape domains of career boundarylessness. Originality/value – Using an under-researched sample of Chinese corporate expatriates, this paper contributes to the conceptualization of boundaryless careers identifying the changing nature of the boundaries that facilitate or restrict mobility over time. The study calls for the use of combined, multi-dimensional approaches incorporating individual agency, organizational and cultural factors to understand individual career development.
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Dufek, Jaroslav. "Analysis of the basic characteristics of demographic dynamics in the Czech Republic regions." Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 55, no. 6 (2007): 55–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun200755060055.
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The work deals with the evaluation of an achieved level of the basic characteristics of the demographic dynamic in the regions in 2005, dividing regions to homogenous groups always according to pairs of indicators having logical relationship between each other. As a pair characterizing population migration were selected a rate of marriages – divorces, marriages – births, births – mortalities, immigrations – emigrations, natural population growth – immigration population growth. According to a direction of the research intention a special attention was paid to South Moravia region and to Vysočina region. According to an expected reciprocal relationship of the rate of marriages – births the regression function was determined including a correlative index (I = 0,739*), confirming and quantifying the relationship.
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Gapon, Valentyna, Olena Barabash, and Lyudmyla Chimbay. "ANALYSIS OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC SITUATION AND FORECAST ESTIMATION OF THE NUMBER OF FIRST GRADE STUDENTS." Educational Analytics of Ukraine, no. 2 (2021): 101–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.32987/2617-8532-2021-2-101-116.
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General secondary education is an important element of the education system of any country and the basis for successful procurement of the next levels of education. The importance of the management analysis based on statistical data is increasing and it makes it possible to establish the dynamics of changes and to identify their factors and typical trends in the general secondary education system as a whole. The purpose of the article is to analyze the impact of demographic processes on the formation of the contingent of first-graders and forecast it for the future. The dynamics of the birth rate between 2008 and 2018 are analyzed based on the calculated birth rates by the regions and types of areas (urban and rural settlements). The used statistical methodology for the consistent patterns is based on the principles of comparison, analysis, and synthesis with the use of generalizing indicators. To calculate the projected number of first-graders, factual methods are chosen based on the available information about the forecasting object and its past development, based on which a scientifically substantiated conclusion is achieved about the possible state of the object in the future. Dynamic series of the averaged coefficients of the ratio of the number of first-grade students and the number of births in the corresponding period is constructed. The research is based on the data of statistical forms of reporting on the activities of general secondary education 76-RVC «Consolidated report of day schools of general secondary education» for the period of 2014/2015-2019/2020 and information of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine on the population and birth rate of children in Ukraine in 2008-2018.
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Mwenifumbo, Lorraine, and K. Edward Renner. "Institutional Variations in Faculty Demographic Profiles." Canadian Journal of Higher Education 28, no. 3 (May 3, 2017): 21–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.47678/cjhe.v28i3.183319.
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This paper proposes that many of the academic, financial and management challenges facing higher education are the result of a group of inter-related financial and demographic variables which are combining to produce a "ratchet" effect. Each twist of the ratchet reduces the institutional flexibility necessary for making adaptive responses with respect to revenue and expenses, renewal, and diversity which are required to avoid a further tightening of the ratchet. Another decade of decline may be ahead for Canadian Universities unless the dynamic interplay of the variables responsible for the ratchet can be reversed. Toward this end, the methodology of "institutional variations" is proposed, and is illustrated through an analysis of the faculty demographic profiles of nine Canadian universities. The proposed methodology requires focusing on collecting specific, descriptive information about individual institutions, rather than the usual strategy of collecting normative, aggregated information about higher education in general.
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Savicka, Aida. "Volunteering in Lithuania: Comparative, Dynamic and Value Perspective." Socialinė teorija, empirija, politika ir praktika 22 (July 29, 2021): 116–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.15388/stepp.2021.33.
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Although volunteering is not a new topic in social research, many questions about people’s motivation to engage in voluntary activities still remain open. The article analyzes the changing attitudes towards volunteering in contemporary society, the demographic profile of volunteers, their intrinsic motivation and the cultural value orientation that supports it. The main purpose of this article is to identify the impact of main sociodemographic and personal characteristics in people’s decision to volunteer. Data from European Values Surveys (1990, 1999, 2008, 2017) are used for this purpose.
The presented research data provide valuable insights into long-term trends in the development of volunteering in Lithuania, important socio-demographic determinants of volunteering and changing individual motivation to engage in volunteering. As the analysis reveales, although demographic factors – gender, age, education, occupational employment – are important, they only become meaningful when analyzed along with personal characteristics of respondents (such as life satisfaction, trust in people, belief that one is in control of own life) and their value orientations (such as caring, creativity, stimulation, and the pursuit of social justice). In other words, volunteers cannot be treated as a demographically homogeneous group. This means that in order to effectively mobilize people for a specific volunteering activity, it is necessary to take into account not only which socio-demographic groups are generally more likely to be involved, but also the values that are most important to them when planning volunteering strategies and communication. Understanding the determinants of volunteering can serve as a guideline for the development of volunteer-friendly public policies and for properly motivating people to become involved in volunteering, both at the level of the state and specific public organizations.
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Wang, Wei, Xue Song Liu, and Tao Wang. "Analysis on Migration Factors of Rural Worker in China." Advanced Materials Research 219-220 (March 2011): 1597–600. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.219-220.1597.
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In former researches, the classification of the various indicators in the research of rural worker migration was pointed from the researchers’ subject views. This paper firstly investigated the available data of a series of application indexes related to the rural worker migration, using the method of principle component analysis (PCA), generally drew a conclusion on the affects of the migration dynamic factors divided into four main components, such as agricultural factor, demographic factor, economic factor, industry structure factor. Then we added 0-1 variables to the original target led by the method of logistic regression, finally obtained its results that agricultural factor and economic factor are the main dynamic factors of rural worker migration.
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Naujokaitis-Lewis, Ilona, and Janelle M. R. Curtis. "Advances in global sensitivity analyses of demographic-based species distribution models to address uncertainties in dynamic landscapes." PeerJ 4 (July 19, 2016): e2204. http://dx.doi.org/10.7717/peerj.2204.
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Developing a rigorous understanding of multiple global threats to species persistence requires the use of integrated modeling methods that capture processes which influence species distributions. Species distribution models (SDMs) coupled with population dynamics models can incorporate relationships between changing environments and demographics and are increasingly used to quantify relative extinction risks associated with climate and land-use changes. Despite their appeal, uncertainties associated with complex models can undermine their usefulness for advancing predictive ecology and informing conservation management decisions. We developed a computationally-efficient and freely available tool (GRIP 2.0) that implements and automates a global sensitivity analysis of coupled SDM-population dynamics models for comparing the relative influence of demographic parameters and habitat attributes on predicted extinction risk. Advances over previous global sensitivity analyses include the ability to vary habitat suitability across gradients, as well as habitat amount and configuration of spatially-explicit suitability maps of real and simulated landscapes. Using GRIP 2.0, we carried out a multi-model global sensitivity analysis of a coupled SDM-population dynamics model of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) in Mount Rainier National Park as a case study and quantified the relative influence of input parameters and their interactions on model predictions. Our results differed from the one-at-time analyses used in the original study, and we found that the most influential parameters included the total amount of suitable habitat within the landscape, survival rates, and effects of a prevalent disease, white pine blister rust. Strong interactions between habitat amount and survival rates of older trees suggests the importance of habitat in mediating the negative influences of white pine blister rust. Our results underscore the importance of considering habitat attributes along with demographic parameters in sensitivity routines. GRIP 2.0 is an important decision-support tool that can be used to prioritize research, identify habitat-based thresholds and management intervention points to improve probability of species persistence, and evaluate trade-offs of alternative management options.
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Gabrielli, Giuseppe, Anna Paterno, Silvana Salvini, and Isabella Corazziari. "Demographic trends in less and least developed countries: Convergence or divergence?" Journal of Population Research 38, no. 3 (June 12, 2021): 221–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12546-021-09264-2.
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AbstractMany scholars share the assumption that demographic patterns in the world are converging over time. The present study analyses the temporal trends of specific parameters of mortality and fertility—together with certain socio-economic indicators—in 95 less and least developed countries during the period 1990–2015 and discusses whether mortality and fertility trends are convergent or divergent. We apply dynamic factor analysis and cluster analysis of trajectories to macro-data from major international sources. The results show that a large number of countries have a convergent trend in mortality, but sub-Saharan African countries affected by the HIV–AIDS epidemic show non-monotonic temporal trends. Trends in fertility are delayed and unclear and depend on individual attitudes and levels of women’s empowerment. Fifty-two out of the 95 observed countries are collocated in similar mortality and fertility groups. Finally, countries at an advanced economic stage made the best improvements, while the least developed ones retained their deep pre-existing inequalities.
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Okada, Kohei. "Dynamic analysis of demographic change and human capital accumulation in an R&D-based growth model." Journal of Economics 130, no. 3 (February 28, 2020): 225–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00712-020-00692-x.
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Vusumuzi Nani, Gwendoline. "A synthesis of changing patterns in the demographic profiles of urban street vendors in Botswana, South Africa and Zimbabwe." Problems and Perspectives in Management 14, no. 3 (September 27, 2016): 549–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ppm.14(3-2).2016.11.
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Street vending is a phenomenon that has been in existence for hundreds of years. It has since increased owing to economic challenges experienced, especially in developing countries. This article sought to highlight changing patterns in the demographic profiles of urban street vendors in Botswana, South Africa and Zimbabwe through a desk research study. The aim was to sensitize local governments, particularly in Zimbabwe, to develop appropriate policies in line with changing patterns in the demographic profiles of urban street vendors. Findings revealed that there has been an increase in the number of single and married women in urban street vending; more young people have joined this practice and more educated people are also part of urban street vendors. The study concluded that street vending is a dynamic phenomenon with changes having been noticed in gender, marital status, age and level of education of urban street vendors. Recommendations were that local governments need to re-visit policies pertaining to planning for urban street vending in line with the changing circumstances. Keywords: changing patterns, urban street vending, dynamic phenomenon, qualitative analysis. JEL Classification: P25, C13
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Popkov, Yu S. "A New Class of Dynamic Macrosystem Models with Self-Reproduction." Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space 21, no. 6 (June 1989): 739–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1068/a210739.
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The author considers a class of macrosystems where the relaxation time of the distribution process of elements is significantly less than the relaxation time of the self-reproduction process. The proposed model of such macrosystems defines the system of differential equations with nonlinearity generated by the solution of a mathematical programming problem with an entropy objective function. Methods for the structural analysis of this model are considered, and applications to demographic modelling, biological dynamics, and chemical kinetics are given.
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Wolf, Douglas A. "The Role of Microsimulation in Longitudinal Data Analysis." Canadian Studies in Population 28, no. 2 (December 31, 2001): 313. http://dx.doi.org/10.25336/p67k5x.
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Microsimulation is well known as a tool for static analysis of tax and transfer policies, for the generation of programmatic cost estimates, and dynamic analyses of socio-economic and demographic systems. However, microsimulation also has the potential to contribute to longitudinal data analysis in several ways, including extending the range of outputs generated by a model, addressing several defective-data problems, and serving as a vehicle for missing-data imputation. This paper discusses microsimulation procedures suitable for several commonly-used statistical models applied to longitudinal data. It also addresses the unique role that can be played by microsimulation in longitudinal data analysis, and the problem of accounting for the several sources of variability associated with microsimulation procedures.
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Pénzes, János, István Pásztor, and Patrik Tátrai. "Demographic processes of developmentally peripheral areas in Hungary." Stanovnistvo 53, no. 2 (2015): 87–111. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/stnv1502087p.
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The current study investigates the demographic processes and challenges of the Hungarian developmentally peripheral settlements. Demographic challenges can be regarded as important consequences of the social and economic disadvantages in spatial terms. However, the interrelating negative demographic tendencies cause even more backward situation blocking or hindering the development. The objective of the current analysis is to discover the demographic characteristics of the peripheral settlements, to detect the spatial disparities and to point out the correlation between backwardness and the investigated demographic phenomena with the help of the census databases 1980-2011 and local datasets on Roma population. Using methods of multivariate statistical analysis, seven indicators were selected in order to achieve the goals of the paper. Backward areas are primarily characterized by population decrease with significant disparities, but there were growing communities among them as well. Some small villages in Northern and Southwestern Hungary will foreseeably face complete depopulation within few years. Primarily small sized villages faced intense decrease in rate of natural change, but dynamic population growth was also detected. Migration loss tends to correlate with the extent of peripherality, as increasing values of migration balance accompany decreasing ratio of peripheral settlements in the area. The ratio of elderly population shows an expressively two-faced character, with the extremely aging and very juvenile settlements. The ratios of Roma population reflect the scale of peripherality. Extended ethnic change could be predicted in Northeastern and Southwestern Hungary and near the Middle Tisza valley. Presented demographic processes will make the backwardness of most of the peripheral settlements stable.
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Boshoff, C., and S. M. Van Eeden. "South African consumer sentiment towards marketing: A longitudinal analysis." South African Journal of Business Management 32, no. 2 (June 30, 2001): 23–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.4102/sajbm.v32i2.718.
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A constant interaction occurs between the firm, its markets and the variables in the business environment. This dynamic interaction ensures that changes in the environment continuously exert an influence on consumer attitudes and sentiment and how consumers react to and perceive the marketing of products and services.The primary objective of this longitudinal study is to measure South African consumer sentiment towards marketing and to compare the results with previous studies done in 1990 and 1994. Secondary objectives include an investigation to establish to what extent this sentiment towards marketing is influenced by demographic variables.Although the marketing index decreased during the period 1990 to 1994, it improved dramatically during the period 1994 to 1999. In contrast to the previous studies it was established that demographic factors had no significant influence on the sentiment towards marketing in this study.As it is generally acknowledged that attitudes influence actual buying behaviour, marketers need to be aware that attitudes and sentiment toward marketing and marketing activities can change over time and proactive steps need to be taken to ensure that sentiment remains positive regardless of the changes in the external environment.
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Peña, Sergio, and César M. Fuentes. "Land Use Changes in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua: A Systems Dynamic Model." Estudios Fronterizos 8, no. 16 (July 1, 2007): 65–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.21670/ref.2007.16.a03.
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The objective of this article is to offer a model to simulate land use changes in Ciudad Juárez, Chihuahua, Mexico. The city faces serious challenges posed by accelerated demographic and urban growth. In its struggle to respond to urban land development pressures, governments, planning agencies and social civil organizations are overwhelmed by a multitude of concerns. The analysis of land use change revolves around two central and interrelated questions: What drives/ causes land use change? What are the environmental and socio-demographic impacts of land change? The land use changes are approached as a complex system in which the elements that define the system and how these relate to each are identified. The development of dynamic simulation models that allow for the generation of different scenarios can be an important tool for urban planning. The software used to simulate the land uses changes is Stella®. The results of the model simulated the demand for land among different land uses (commercial, industrial and residential) in the next 10 or 20 years.
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Manić, Emilija, and Đorđe Mitrović. "Unbalanced Development – Regional Disparity Analysis in Serbia." Economic Themes 59, no. 1 (March 1, 2021): 45–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/ethemes-2021-0003.
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Abstract The unbalanced regional development is one of the biggest socioeconomic challenges in Serbia. It is a multidimensional and multi-level regional imbalance that, according to almost all socioeconomic indicators, shows a growing trend in the first decades of the 21st century. This paper presents an analysis of the selected demographic, social, and economic indicators by using DEA methodology. The dynamic component of the studied imbalance was taken into account by calculating the Malmquist Productivity Index. The calculated index undoubtedly shows that there are differences between regions (not only between the northern and southern regions, but also within the regions themselves). The results also point out that the changes of the input usage efficiency have strongly influenced the ranks of the districts within the national territories.
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Martin, Deborah G., and Steven R. Holloway. "Organizing Diversity: Scales of Demographic Change and Neighborhood Organizing in St Paul, MN." Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space 37, no. 6 (June 2005): 1091–112. http://dx.doi.org/10.1068/a36142.
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Neighborhood involvement in urban governance remains a pressing goal in an era of globalization. Cities have instituted a variety of structures to facilitate this involvement, including quasi-formal neighborhood or district councils. At the same time, urban populations are changing rapidly because of multiple dynamics operating at multiple scales. Immigration, for example, continues to transform inner-city neighborhoods despite the emergence of suburban immigrant enclaves. Existing research inadequately addresses the interaction between efforts to organize neighborhood political involvement and the dynamic nature of urban populations. We examine St Paul, Minnesota—a locale with a well-established neighborhood district-council system and a vibrant and rapidly growing immigrant community. Indeed, immigrants from Southeast Asia and East Africa are moving into neighborhoods that up until the early 1990s were predominantly white. Using a multimethod empirical analysis, we argue that the district-council system, while recognizing and empowering local-level organization, fails to provide adequate resources for neighborhoods to address social dynamics that operate at much broader scales. An index of ethnic and racial diversity computed with census data shows that St Paul experienced a significant overall increase in diversity during the 1990s. Although inner-city neighborhoods remained the most diverse, residential areas developed after World War 2 also diversified considerably. Interviews with neighborhood organizers based in part on tabular and cartographic displays revealed a wide variety of strategies and responses to changing ethnic and racial diversity. Predominant, however, was a mismatch between the scale at which demographic change occurs, and the scale of ‘neighborhood’ action embedded within the district-council system.
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Krejčí, Igor, Romana Kvasnička, and Jaroslav Švasta. "Dynamic aging chain of the Czech Republic population." Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis 59, no. 7 (2011): 209–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.11118/actaun201159070209.
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System dynamics is a method enabling simulation and subsequent analysis of various socio-economic problems. Even though it was founded about fifty years ago, it is relatively new and little used in the Czech Republic. It has a good practice to make use of molecules, standard partial modelling structures which make the modelling processes easier and more effective. The objective of this article is to introduce and provide such molecule of an aging chain for the Czech Republic population. To increase its usefulness the aging chain is disaggregated and divided into two chains, one for each sex. The aging chain molecule consists of stock and flow diagram, a system of differential equations and parameters quantified on the basis of demographic data for Czech Republic. Proposed model of aging chain also capture a special phenomenon of the Czech population – the postponing of motherhood and thus the increase in average age of mothers. This fact led to special model structure that is uncommon for existing aging chains of different populations.The model is constructed on the basis of official demographic data of the Czech Statistical Office and the results of the simulation are compared with the surveyed data. The intersection of data sources resulted into disaggregation of population into twelve age cohorts. The chain is created to serve as a molecule for more complex models. Therefore, variables functioning as interface for implementation into such models are indicated in the text.
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Podluzhnaya, M. Ya, E. A. Voronova, N. V. Isaeva, and E. A. Rudakova. "Population aging is characteristic component of modern demographic processes." Perm Medical Journal 35, no. 6 (December 30, 2018): 36–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.17816/pmj35636-42.
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Aim. To analyze the demographic indices in connection with aging of the population in Perm Krai and the Russian Federation and as a result – to single out problems and ways of solution.
Materials and methods. Calculation and dynamic analysis of reproduction of the population in Perm Krai and the Russian Federation over the period of 2005 – 2017 was performed using official statistic data in connection with gender-and-age-specific characterization of the population.
Results. The processes of aging of the population were estimated from demographic positions. Socioeconomic problems, associated with them, were singled out, the ways of their solving were determined in accordance with national projects regarding health and health care.
Conclusions. At the expense of growing index of expected average life, decrease in fertility and birth rate there is observed accumulation of older age groups of the population, i.e. process of aging. It, naturally, results in growth of chronic pathology, mortality not only in the older age periods but also in the able-bodied part of the population, thus, reducing working potential.
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Mietule, Iveta, Iryna Maksymova, and Kateryna Holikova. "MODERN SOCIO-DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AFFECTING THE BUSINESS SECTOR OF THE ECONOMIES OF LATVIA AND UKRAINE." SOCIETY. INTEGRATION. EDUCATION. Proceedings of the International Scientific Conference 6 (May 25, 2018): 353–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.17770/sie2018vol1.3254.
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The paper analyses and describes key social and demographic trends affecting the business in current conditions. The present research aims to establish logical coherence and feedback between economic development and basic socio-demographic indicators in European countries, including the experience of Latvia and Ukraine. The challenge of the research leads to answering the question how demographic processes affect and drive the economy and how this mechanism could be used to predict essential trends of future development. The methodology of cluster analysis, statistical and regression methods were employed for modelling. Cluster analysis was applied to depict an economic cartogram and merge some European countries in particular clusters by current socio-demographic and economic criteria. As a result, this approach allowed us to compare Latvia and Ukraine as highlighting representatives of different economic clusters and distinguish important similarities and differences. Statistical data were based on the following indicators: GDP, income, employment, age structure, gender, population aging, location, migration etc. These parameters were analysed due to their dynamic change. Regression methods allowed to establish the whole system of indicators affecting the business environment in Latvia and Ukraine. For instance, the results confirmed the explicit impact of migration trends on business and social development.
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Voroshilova, Anzhelika, and Jeff Wafubwa. "Discrete Competitive Lotka–Volterra Model with Controllable Phase Volume." Systems 8, no. 2 (May 27, 2020): 17. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/systems8020017.
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The simulation of population dynamics and social processes is of great interest in nonlinear systems. Recently, many scholars have paid attention to the possible applications of population dynamics models, such as the competitive Lotka–Volterra equation, in economic, demographic and social sciences. It was found that these models can describe some complex behavioral phenomena such as marital behavior, the stable marriage problem and other demographic processes, possessing chaotic dynamics under certain conditions. However, the introduction of external factors directly into the continuous system can influence its dynamic properties and requires a reformulation of the whole model. Nowadays most of the simulations are performed on digital computers. Thus, it is possible to use special numerical techniques and discrete effects to introduce additional features to the digital models of continuous systems. In this paper we propose a discrete model with controllable phase-space volume based on the competitive Lotka–Volterra equations. This model is obtained through the application of semi-implicit numerical methods with controllable symmetry to the continuous competitive Lotka–Volterra model. The proposed model provides almost linear control of the phase-space volume and, consequently, the quantitative characteristics of simulated behavior, by shifting the symmetry of the underlying finite-difference scheme. We explicitly show the possibility of introducing almost arbitrary law to control the phase-space volume and entropy of the system. The proposed approach is verified through bifurcation, time domain and phase-space volume analysis. Several possible applications of the developed model to the social and demographic problems’ simulation are discussed. The developed discrete model can be broadly used in modern behavioral, demographic and social studies.
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Matijevic, Dragana, Branka Tosic, and Vesna Lukic. "Influence of migrations on population and functional changes in Srem municipalities." Glasnik Srpskog geografskog drustva 85, no. 1 (2005): 111–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/gsgd0501111d.
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The paper deals with the issues of demographic and functional changes in the municipalities of Srem region, which are the consequence of a complex social-political situation during the nineties of the 20th century. The analysis comprises the period between the last two population censes, when the most dynamic demographic and functional changes in this region took place. The introductory part of the paper is related to population growth which occurred under the strong influence of forced refugee migrations. Second part of the paper deals with the analysis of active population changes by the activities sectors. It also discusses whether, and to which extent, the mechanical inflow of population influenced the changes of active population in Srem region.
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Majo, Juraj. "New challenges for the Slovakian geography of religions in a dynamic society." Geografie 126, no. 1 (2021): 75–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.37040/geografie2021126010075.
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Religion represents an appealing topic for social science research. Especially in Eastern European countries, the resurgence of religious identities and practices poses many questions that are of interest to human geography. We approach this research gap in Slovakia, outlining the main research topics that have dominated the scientific field, especially atlases and census data analyses. This paper proposes several possible points of interest where research in Slovakian (and possibly Eastern Central European) religion can proceed. Topics such as secularization, non-religion and demographic aspects of religion, like research in suburban areas and areas of religious identity diminution, are potentially attractive, yet not thoroughly researched, fields. Geographers of religion should be more audible with their analysis of the relationship of religious/non-religious identity and space construction in certain contexts.
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Takele, Yezihalemâ Sisayâ. "International Tourism Demand and Determinant Factor Analysis in Ethiopia." International Journal of Systems and Society 6, no. 1 (January 2019): 27–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/ijss.2019010103.
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In Ethiopia, the goal is to position tourism as a key economic sector, since recently it has been identified as one of the major strategies of using tourism to alleviate poverty. Motivated by this need, the study sought to investigate the determinants of international tourism demand. Specifically, the effect of economic factors, tourist socio-demographic characteristics, political factors, and destination characteristics on international tourism demand in Ethiopia. The study used both longitudinal and cross-sectional research designs and panel data for economic variables from eleven countries for the period of only one month time as of (December 10th, 2018 to January 10th, 2019). Data was collected from the World Bank database, the United Nations Database, the International Monetary Fund Database and the Ministry of Culture and Tourism Statistics. Survey data was collected from individual tourists leaving the country by using questionnaires. The study used a dynamic panel regression model to determine the effect of economic factors on international tourism demand and a count data regression model to determine the effect of socio-demographic characteristics, political factors and destination characteristics on international tourism demand. The study results indicated that tourism price, travelling cost, trade openness and word of mouth effect were the main economic factors influencing international tourism demand in Ethiopia. The tourist's socio-demographic characteristics such as annual household income, age, and occupational status were found to significantly influence international tourism demand. The political factors composite index and destination characteristics composite index were also important determinants of international tourism demand. Taking into consideration of all these factors affecting tourism demand, the government and all the tourism stakeholders should work towards making Ethiopia's tourism product competitive, maintain reasonable prices, further develop the tourism infrastructure and offer quality services, along with the diversification of tourism products.
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Chen, Xi. "Nighttime Lights and Population Migration: Revisiting Classic Demographic Perspectives with an Analysis of Recent European Data." Remote Sensing 12, no. 1 (January 3, 2020): 169. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs12010169.
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This study examines whether the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) nighttime lights can be used to predict population migration in small areas in European Union (EU) countries. The analysis uses the most current data measured at the smallest administrative unit in 18 EU countries provided by the European Commission. The ordinary least squares regression model shows that, compared to population size and gross domestic product (GDP), lights data are another useful predictor. The predicting power of lights is similar to population but it is much stronger than GDP per capita. For most countries, regression models with lights can explain 50–90% of variances in small area migrations. The results also show that the annual VIIRS lights (2015–2016) are slightly better predictors for migration population than averaged monthly VIIRS lights (2014–2017), and their differences are more pronounced in high latitude countries. Further, analysis of quadratic models, models with interaction effects and spatial lag, shows the significant effect of lights on migration in the European region. The study concludes that VIIRS nighttime lights hold great potential for studying human migration flow, and further open the door for more widespread application of remote sensing information in studying dynamic demographic processes.
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Stadler, Tanja, Timothy G. Vaughan, Alex Gavryushkin, Stephane Guindon, Denise Kühnert, Gabriel E. Leventhal, and Alexei J. Drummond. "How well can the exponential-growth coalescent approximate constant-rate birth–death population dynamics?" Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 282, no. 1806 (May 7, 2015): 20150420. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2015.0420.
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One of the central objectives in the field of phylodynamics is the quantification of population dynamic processes using genetic sequence data or in some cases phenotypic data. Phylodynamics has been successfully applied to many different processes, such as the spread of infectious diseases, within-host evolution of a pathogen, macroevolution and even language evolution. Phylodynamic analysis requires a probability distribution on phylogenetic trees spanned by the genetic data. Because such a probability distribution is not available for many common stochastic population dynamic processes, coalescent-based approximations assuming deterministic population size changes are widely employed. Key to many population dynamic models, in particular epidemiological models, is a period of exponential population growth during the initial phase. Here, we show that the coalescent does not well approximate stochastic exponential population growth, which is typically modelled by a birth–death process. We demonstrate that introducing demographic stochasticity into the population size function of the coalescent improves the approximation for values of R 0 close to 1, but substantial differences remain for large R 0 . In addition, the computational advantage of using an approximation over exact models vanishes when introducing such demographic stochasticity. These results highlight that we need to increase efforts to develop phylodynamic tools that correctly account for the stochasticity of population dynamic models for inference.
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Robert, Alexandre, Mark Bolton, Frédéric Jiguet, and Joël Bried. "The survival–reproduction association becomes stronger when conditions are good." Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 282, no. 1818 (November 7, 2015): 20151529. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2015.1529.
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Positive covariations between survival and reproductive performance (S–R covariation) are generally interpreted in the context of fixed or dynamic demographic heterogeneity (i.e. persistent differences between individuals, or dynamic variation in resource acquisition), but the processes underlying covariations are still unknown. We used multi-event modelling to investigate how environmental and individual features influence S–R covariation patterns in a long-lived seabird, the Monteiro's storm petrel ( Oceanodroma monteiroi ). Our analysis reveals that a strong positive association between individual breeding success and subsequent survival occurs only when conditions are favourable to reproduction (in favourable years, in high-quality nests and in nest-faithful breeders). This finding reflects differences in the main causes of breeding failure and mortality under favourable and unfavourable conditions, which in turn lead to distinct patterns of S–R covariation. We suggest, in particular, that resource-related sources of demographic heterogeneity do not generate a strong S–R covariation, in contrast with hidden and unpredictable sources of variation.
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Atici, Bünyamin, and Ugur Bati. "A Consumer Perception Research on the Subject of a New Technology in a Developing Dynamic Market." International Journal of Information Systems in the Service Sector 3, no. 3 (July 2011): 47–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/jisss.2011070103.
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The amount of demand for new products like 3G is related to adoption and spread of innovations. Research suggests that innovativeness is related to consumer behavior and characteristics. Research shows that new technologies like 3G are not evaluated by only its functional sides in the consumer perception. Consumers also perceive symbolic sides to this type of technology. This study measures the interests of the population that live in the urban area of Turkey and economically active and working for the 3G technology, their product purchasing criteria, product using habits, brand recognition levels, brand preferences, and tendencies for purchasing products and services in the near future. The research is performed with the participation of 612 persons in 12 provinces. The demographic characteristics belonging to the consumers who participate in the survey study, the reliability analysis results concerning the scale, t test, factor analysis, frequency analysis, correlation analysis, and variance analyses are performed in this chapter of the research. Findings show that the dynamic Turkish consumer gives significant importance to this new technology as functional and symbolic.
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Pártlová, Petra. "Condition Factor Analysis in the Region of South Bohemia." SHS Web of Conferences 73 (2020): 02004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/20207302004.
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Socio-economic transformation in many post-communist states has influenced the dynamic process in such states with the differentiation trends. Such process often causes disparities in different regions, creates relations and ties, often contradictory, and spatial socio-economic polarization in the regions. The above-mentioned processes and their impacts are demonstrated on the example of the South Bohemian region, in particular the LAG territory. Using the methods of correlation analysis, the author demonstrates the conditionality of the indicators in the area of interest. Different links and relations of socio-economic, infrastructural and natural factors to the emergence of disparities in different LAGs are analyzed. The most important factors of the emerging disparities within the region and the LAGs include the relations between the progressiveness of the economic structure and population density and between the demographic structure of the region and the infrastructure, as revealed by the analysis.
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West, Geoffrey B., Brian J. Enquist, and James H. Brown. "A general quantitative theory of forest structure and dynamics." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106, no. 17 (April 10, 2009): 7040–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0812294106.
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We present the first part of a quantitative theory for the structure and dynamics of forests at demographic and resource steady state. The theory uses allometric scaling relations, based on metabolism and biomechanics, to quantify how trees use resources, fill space, and grow. These individual-level traits and properties scale up to predict emergent properties of forest stands, including size–frequency distributions, spacing relations, resource flux rates, and canopy configurations. Two insights emerge from this analysis: (i) The size structure and spatial arrangement of trees in the entire forest are emergent manifestations of the way that functionally invariant xylem elements are bundled together to conduct water and nutrients up from the trunks, through the branches, to the leaves of individual trees. (ii) Geometric and dynamic properties of trees in a forest and branches in trees scale identically, so that the entire forest can be described mathematically and behaves structurally and functionally like a scaled version of the branching networks in the largest tree. This quantitative framework uses a small number of parameters to predict numerous structural and dynamical properties of idealized forests.
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Gulyamov, Shodibek, Nigina Sharapova, and Yuriy Krivoruchko. "CLINICAL AND SOCIAL ASPECTS OF HEROIN ADDICTION: MODERN STATE OF ISSUE." Avicenna Bulletin 22, no. 1 (March 1, 2020): 112–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.25005/2074-0581-2020-22-1-112-119.
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The article provides a brief overview of the literature, which deals with the issues of heroin addiction, its history, prevalence, statistics, clinical characteristics, diagnostics, prevention and countermeasures, as well as programs aimed at social rehabilitation and harm reduction from injecting drug use. Issues such as physiological foundations and features of disease and remission formation, withdrawal, motivational attitudes of drug users, structure users of narcotic substances, the impact of pre-morbid features, socio-demographic, clinical-dynamic, regional and gender aspects of heroin addiction, and also existing approaches to therapeutic and preventive measures are considered in narcology. Medical and social consequences expressed in the form of the spread of hemo-contact infections, such as HIV/AIDS and viral hepatitis; risky behavior and its impact on the growth of sexually transmitted infections; reducing and completely losing social status; suicide-aggressive actions have been studied. The analysis of data on the study of the prognostic value of the socio-demographic and clinical-dynamic characteristics of heroin addiction and its effect is provided on the outcome of the disease. Keywords: Drugs, drug addiction, heroin addiction, opioids, addiction treatment
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Ploscaru, Cristian, and IonuČ› Nistor. "HISTORIC MOLDOVA. HISTORICAL DISPARITIES, REGIONALISATION AND CROSS-BORDER INTEGRATION." CBU International Conference Proceedings 5 (September 30, 2017): 920–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.12955/cbup.v5.1112.
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This study proposes a theoretical approach to the idea of a platform for research and education on the historical substance of regionalization in Romania, with reference to the case of the historical province of Moldova. Furthermore, to identify the consequences, reactions, weaknesses, opportunities afforded by administrative restructuring from a post-regionalization demographic and socioeconomic viewpoint. An inter-disciplinary analysis – historical, demographic, economic – the traits of a Romanian society stemming from Moldova, the historical dynamics that underpin the modern Romanian state, will provide a picture of the current situation, focused mainly on its causes while trying to find explanations rooted in economic and social behaviours and attitudes which came to define and inform the subsequent development strategy of regionalization, allowing Moldova to play a central economic role in relation to other territories, similar to the role it played in the past two centuries, in the context of European integration strategies, in neighbouring parts of the continent (Republic of Moldova, Ukraine). The theoretical approach involves three components, expanding concentrically: 1) component of knowledge / research; 2) digital platform; 3) e-learning component. The research component seeks dynamic historical development of Moldova, from the time after the Union of the Romanian Principalities until today, focusing on specific regional elements. We will try to identify and analyze the specific features of Moldova, links with other areas of historical Moldavia, as the interaction between them and the Romanian public policy. Within the demographic component, we look at the historical population dynamics of Moldova, including various ethnic and religious communities, rural-urban ratios, social and professional structures. Another issue concerns the economic and comparative analysis in space and time, with respect to Moldova historical economic dynamics parameters - resources, infrastructure, industry, agriculture, trade, transport, etc. Both aspects will be analyzed in correlation with the impact of a permanent political factor, pursuing public policies promoted by the political regimes in their chronological sequence.
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Kurek, Sławomir, Mirosław Wójtowicz, and Jadwiga Gałka. "Using Spatial Autocorrelation for identification of demographic patterns of Functional Urban Areas in Poland." Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series 52, no. 52 (June 1, 2021): 123–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/bog-2021-0018.
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Abstract Functional Urban Areas (FUAs) leads to a better knowledge of urban spatial organisation, which may play a significant role in regional policy making and may be helpful in understanding the connection between urbanisation and demographic development. An explanation of population change in urban regions can be associated the second demographic transition comprising fertility decline below replacement level and postponement of births. The aim of this paper is to focus on establishing similarity patterns and anomalous values of selected demographic variables in the cores and peripheral areas of Functional Urban Areas. At the background of this study lies an assumption that population development of FUA's is shaped by different factors connected with second demographic transition and migrations. To achieve the aims the following demographic characteristics were used: population growth rate, dependency ratio, rate of natural increase, the net migration rate, and the dynamic economic ageing index, Spatial methods play an increasingly important role in contemporary socio-demographic research. In order to identify spatial systems Global Moran Statistics and the Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) including Local Moran statistics as well as Getis-Ord Gi* statistics were used. The research showed global and local autocorrelation of demographic processes in Functional Urban Areas in Poland, namely population growth, natural increase, net migration and population ageing. The use of local Moran's I statistic and the Getis-Ord Gi* method has led to identification of spatial clusters and dispersions representing different demographic variables. Spatial autocorrelation methods can be useful in an analysis of demographic variables including changes in time. The main contribution of this study to the research on demographic processes in urban areas was an application of spatial groupings techniques not only to find out similarity and dissimilarity patterns of demographic indicators but also to apply this findings for the needs of spatial planning.
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Alyavetdinov, R. I., and N. N. Shamsiyarov. "The medical and demographic situation in Kazan in the late XX and XXI centuries." Kazan medical journal 93, no. 3 (June 15, 2012): 535–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.17816/kmj1888.
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Aim. To assess the demographic situation in the city of Kazan in 1995-2010. Methods. An assessment has been conducted based on the analysis of the dynamics of population size and composition, indices of fertility and mortality. Calculations of intensive and extensive indicators and their dynamic comparison were used as the research methods. Results. The maximum value of natural decrease in the population of Kazan, resulting from excess mortality above the level of fertility, fall on the period 2000-2001. However, beginning from 2002 this parameter began to decrease, and in 2010, when the rates of mortality and fertility equaled, registered was a zero natural growth. Reduction in the total fertility rate of the population of the city in the last decade of the twentieth century gave way to the growth of this indicator in 2001-2010. In the structure of mortality of the population in the city of Kazan the leaders are diseases of the cardiovascular system (61.1%), then - malignant tumors (16.3%), followed by - traums, poisoning and accidents (10.3%). The mortality remains high in the working-age population and almost a four-fold prevalence of middle age male mortality over female mortality has been established. The slight increase in the population of Kazan is due to the influx of migrants to the city and to the annexation of the village communities to the city. In the population structure the proportion of middle-aged and elderly citizen increases, while the proportion of children decreases. Conclusion. The demographic situation, which determines the strategy of organization of medical care for the population, should be under the survailance of the society.
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Tolochek, Vladimir A. "Professional Mentality as a Dynamic Structure." Izvestiya of Saratov University. New Series. Series: Educational Acmeology. Developmental Psychology 9, no. 4 (December 15, 2020): 338–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.18500/2304-9790-2020-9-4-338-349.
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The article presents methodology and methods of field study on the example of studying the professional mentality (PM). Purpose of the study: Analysis of typical conditions of scientific research work (SRW), connections between methods, recorded facts and properties of psychological objects. Methods: analysis of literary sources; observation, questionnaires, expert polls, psychodiagnostics, parametric methods of statistics. Hypotheses: 1. Research methods, revealed scientific facts, described properties of psychological objects are in a relationship of mutual conditioning. 2. Attention to artifacts allows us to develop constructive options for further study of psychological objects. Study base: a) civil servants (93 people); b) private security guards (more than 200 people). The meta-problem of the present study (the methodology and methods of field study) is viewed on the example of observation and study of behavior and activities of the subjects in different social situations. We demonstrated that the maximum differentiation of aspects of the working conditions of civil servants (up to the “incredible” and atypical 11-point scale of intervals), awareness of the socio-demographic and work-related aspects of the subjects, the use of a set of parametric methods of statistics made it possible to satisfactorily solve SRW tasks even in situations when respondents resisted. The study of professional mentality (PM) using two models (professional spheres opposite in many respects, which set two “poles” of their possible characteristics) allows us to identify both similar and different features of behavior, relationships, activities and interaction of people. It is stated: 1) The constructive approach is the joint study of the properties of at least two psychological objects 2) In the study of complex psychological objects, it is advisable to use a differential approach and complexes of methods of parametric statistics.