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Journal articles on the topic 'E23'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 4 June 2021

Last updated: 16 February 2022

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1

Gourio, François. "Credit Risk and Disaster Risk." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 5, no. 3 (July 1, 2013): 1–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.5.3.1.

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Credit spreads are large, volatile, and countercyclical, and recent empirical work suggests that risk premia, not expected credit losses, are responsible for these features. Building on the idea that corporate debt, while fairly safe in ordinary recessions, is exposed to economic depressions, this paper embeds a trade-off theory of capital structure into a real business cycle model with a small, exogenously timevarying risk of economic disaster. The model replicates the level, volatility and cyclicality of credit spreads, and variation in the corporate bond risk premium amplifies macroeconomic fluctuations in investment, employment, and GDP. (JEL E13, E22, E23, E24, E32, E44, G32)

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2

Benhima, Kenza, and Baptiste Massenot. "Safety Traps." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 5, no. 4 (October 1, 2013): 68–106. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.5.4.68.

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Fear of risk provides a rationale for protracted economic downturns. We develop a real business cycle model where investors with decreasing relative risk aversion choose between a risky and a safe technology that exhibit decreasing returns. Because of a feedback effect from the interest rate to risk aversion, two equilibria can emerge: a standard equilibrium and a “safe” one in which investors invest in safer assets. We refer to the dynamics of this second equilibrium as a safety trap because it is self-reinforcing as investors accumulate more wealth and show it to be consistent with Japan's lost decade. (JEL D14, E13, E21, E22, E23, E32)

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3

Rayol, Breno Pinto, and Yasmin Alvino Rayol. "DESENVOLVIMENTO INICIAL DE ESPÉCIES ARBÓREAS EM PLANTIO DE ENRIQUECIMENTO DE FLORESTA SECUNDÁRIA EM SANTARÉM, PARÁ." Acta Tecnológica 15, no. 2 (April 7, 2021): 81. http://dx.doi.org/10.35818/acta.v15i2.928.

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<span id="E210">Estudos sobre o comportamento de espécies arbóreas em vegetação secundária, fornecem importantes subsídios para o manejo desses agroecossistemas. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar o desenvolvimento inicial de mudas de oito espécies arbóreas plantadas em um fragmento de floresta secundária, localizado na zona urbana de Santarém, oeste do estado do Pará. Foram avaliadas, durante 36 meses, a sobrevivência e o crescimento em altura das mudas. As espécies </span><span id="E211">Hymenaea courbaril </span><span id="E212">L</span><span id="E213">, </span><span id="E214">Handroanthus serratifolius</span><span id="E215"> (Vahl) S.Grose.</span><span id="E217"> e </span><span id="E218">Cordia</span><span id="E220">goeldiana</span><span id="E221"> Huber</span><span id="E222"> foram as que apresentaram maiores taxas de sobrevivência (> 90,0%). </span><span id="E223">Enterolobium</span><span id="E225">schomburgkii</span><span id="E226"> (Benth.) Benth.</span><span id="E227">, </span><span id="E228">Ocotea</span><span id="E230">caudata</span><span id="E231"> (Nees) Mez.</span><span id="E232"> e </span><span id="E233">Mezilaurus</span><span id="E235">itauba</span><span id="E236"> (Meisn.) Taub.</span><span id="E238"> obtiveram taxas de sobrevivências medianas durante o período avaliado, variando de 71,4 a 88,9%</span><span id="E239">. Quanto ao crescimento em altura das mudas, destacaram-se as espécies </span><span id="E240">H. courbaril </span><span id="E241">e </span><span id="E242">H. serratifolius</span><span id="E243">, que</span><span id="E244">,</span><span id="E246">aos 24 meses já apresentavam alturas médias superiores a um metro. A grande variação de taxa de sobrevivência e crescimento das mudas entre as espécies avaliadas confirma a importância de uma melhor compreensão da </span><span id="E247">performance de mudas de espécies arbóreas no campo, com a finalidade de propor as mais recomendadas para enriquecimento de florestas secundárias na região.</span>

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4

Pant, Vimal, and Prachi Pathak. "The Wounds of COVID-19 and Responses to the Challenges: A Commentary on India’s Macroeconomic Scenario." Indian Economic Journal 68, no. 4 (December 2020): 667–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0019466221998826.

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The COVID pandemic has ravaged the economic health of all countries round the world. This work is a commentary on the scale of the impact the disease has created on the economy and how the country has responded to the challenge. It looks into the interventions of the government as well as their possible implications on the macroeconomic health of the country. We have also suggested measures that could assist in redeeming the economic health and bringing out the vulnerable businesses from existential crisis. JEL Classification Codes: E00, E20, E23, E24, E32

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5

Miyamoto, Wataru, Thuy Lan Nguyen, and Dmitriy Sergeyev. "Government Spending Multipliers under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 10, no. 3 (July 1, 2018): 247–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170131.

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Using a rich dataset on government spending forecasts in Japan, we provide new evidence on the effects of unexpected changes in government spending when the nominal interest rate is near the zero lower bound (ZLB). The on-impact output multiplier is 1.5 in the ZLB period and 0.6 outside of it. We estimate that government spending shocks increase both private consumption and investment during the ZLB period, but crowd them out in the normal period. There is evidence that expected inflation increases more in the ZLB period than in the normal period. (JEL E21, E22, E23, E31, E43, E52, E62)

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6

Faccini, Renato, and Edoardo Palombo. "News Uncertainty in Brexit United Kingdom." American Economic Review: Insights 3, no. 2 (June 1, 2021): 149–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20200019.

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After the Brexit referendum, the behavior of the UK economy defied widespread expectations, as it did not exhibit a V-shaped recession but a slow decline in production. We show that this pattern of propagation arises when uncertainty is about future, rather than current, fundamentals and if the expected duration of uncertainty is sufficiently long. We reach this conclusion within the confines of a heterogeneous firms model featuring news uncertainty rather than conventional uncertainty shocks. In the quantitative analysis, uncertainty is informed by firm-level probability distributions on the expected effect of Brexit on sales. (JEL E22, E23, E24, E32, F15)

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7

Dunai, Valery, and Barbara Tzschentke. "Impact of Environmental Thermal Stimulation on Activation of Hypothalamic Neuronal Nitric Oxide Synthase during the Prenatal Ontogenesis in Muscovy Ducks." Scientific World Journal 2012 (2012): 1–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1100/2012/416936.

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The aim of the study is to investigate the influence of prenatal temperature stimulation on neuronal NO synthase (nNOS) expression in the anterior hypothalamus of Muscovy duck embryos. Experiments were performed on embryonic day (E) E20, E23, E28, and E33 using histochemistry for identification of the nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide phosphate-diaphorase (NADPH-d) as marker of NOS-containing neurons. Until the experiments, all duck embryos were incubated under standard temperature conditions (37.5∘C). During 3 hours before the start of the experiments, one group was incubated at37.5∘C(control group), the second was warm-experienced at39∘C,and the third was cold-experienced at34∘C. In normal and warm-incubated duck embryos, nNOS activity could be first detected on E23. Particularly, after cold stimulation, a significant increase in nNOS activity was found in all embryos investigated even on day 20. Warm stimulation obviously induces the opposite effect, but at later embryonic age (E33). It can be concluded that probably in late-term bird embryos NO acts as a mediator of the neuronal cold pathway in the anterior hypothalamus, which might be improved by prenatal cold stimulation.

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8

Jones, Charles I., and Paul M. Romer. "The New Kaldor Facts: Ideas, Institutions, Population, and Human Capital." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2, no. 1 (January 1, 2010): 224–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.2.1.224.

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In 1961, Nicholas Kaldor highlighted six “stylized” facts to summarize the patterns that economists had discovered in national income accounts and to shape the growth models being developed to explain them. Redoing this exercise today shows just how much progress we have made. In contrast to Kaldor's facts, which revolved around a single state variable, physical capital, our updated facts force consideration of four far more interesting variables: ideas, institutions, population, and human capital. Dynamic models have uncovered subtle interactions among these variables, generating important insights about such big questions as: Why has growth accelerated? Why are there gains from trade? (JEL D01, E01, E22, E23, E24, J11)

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9

Garin, Julio, Michael J. Pries, and Eric R. Sims. "The Relative Importance of Aggregate and Sectoral Shocks and the Changing Nature of Economic Fluctuations." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 10, no. 1 (January 1, 2018): 119–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.20140089.

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A principal components decomposition of sectoral IP data reveals that the contribution of aggregate shocks to the variance of aggregate output declined from about 70 percent in the period 1967–1983 to about 30 percent after 1983. We develop an “islands” model with two sectors and costly labor reallocation to investigate how this change in the relative importance of shocks alters business cycle moments. A version of the model with relatively more important sectoral shocks results in a sizeable decline in the cyclicality of labor productivity and is consistent with changes in several other business cycle moments observed in the data. (JEL E13, E23, E24, E32, J21, J24)

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10

Carroll, Christopher D., Edmund Crawley, Jiri Slacalek, Kiichi Tokuoka, and Matthew N. White. "Sticky Expectations and Consumption Dynamics." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 12, no. 3 (July 1, 2020): 40–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180286.

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To match aggregate consumption dynamics, macroeconomic models must generate “excess smoothness” in consumption expenditures. But microfounded models are calibrated to match micro data, which exhibit no “excess smoothness.” So standard microfounded models fail to match the macro smoothness facts. We show that the micro and macro evidence are both consistent with a microfounded model where consumers know their personal circumstances but have “sticky expectations” about the macroeconomy. Aggregate consumption sluggishness reflects consumers’ imperfect attention to aggregate shocks. Our proposed degree of inattention has negligible utility costs because aggregate shocks constitute a tiny proportion of the uncertainty that consumers face. (JEL D83, D84, E21, E23, E24)

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11

Winberry, Thomas. "Lumpy Investment, Business Cycles, and Stimulus Policy." American Economic Review 111, no. 1 (January 1, 2021): 364–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20161723.

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I study the aggregate implications of micro-level lumpy investment in a model consistent with the empirical dynamics of the real interest rate. The elasticity of aggregate investment with respect to shocks is procyclical because more firms are likely to make an extensive margin investment in expansions than in recessions. Matching the dynamics of the real interest rate is key to generating this result because it disciplines the interest-elasticity of investment and avoids counterfactual behavior of the model that would otherwise eliminate most of the procyclical responsiveness. Therefore, data on interest rates place important discipline in aggregating micro-level investment behavior. (JEL D25, E13, E22, E23, E43, G31, H25)

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12

Favilukis, Jack, Xiaoji Lin, and Xiaofei Zhao. "The Elephant in the Room: The Impact of Labor Obligations on Credit Markets." American Economic Review 110, no. 6 (June 1, 2020): 1673–712. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20170156.

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We show that labor market frictions are first-order for understanding credit markets. Wage growth and labor share forecast aggregate credit spreads and debt growth as well as or better than alternative predictors. They also predict credit risk and debt growth in a cross section of international firms. Finally, high labor share firms choose lower financial leverage. A model with labor market frictions and risky long-term debt can explain these findings, and produce large credit spreads despite realistically low default probabilities. This is because precommitted payments to labor make other committed payments (i.e., interest) riskier. (JEL D33, E23, E24, E25, E44, F23, G32)

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13

Beaudry, Paul, Dana Galizia, and Franck Portier. "Putting the Cycle Back into Business Cycle Analysis." American Economic Review 110, no. 1 (January 1, 2020): 1–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20190789.

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Are business cycles mainly a response to persistent exogenous shocks, or do they instead reflect a strong endogenous mechanism which produces recurrent boom-bust phenomena? In this paper we present evidence in favor of the second interpretation and we highlight the set of key elements that influence our answer. The elements that tend to favor this type of interpretation of business cycles are (i) slightly extending the frequency window one associates with business cycle phenomena, (ii) allowing for strategic complementarities across agents that arise due to financial frictions, and (iii) allowing for a locally unstable steady state in estimation. (JEL E22, E24, E23, E44)

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14

Fernald, John, and Brent Neiman. "Growth Accounting with Misallocation: Or, Doing Less with More in Singapore." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 3, no. 2 (April 1, 2011): 29–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.3.2.29.

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We show that in a two-sector economy with heterogeneous capital subsidies and monopoly power, primal and dual measures of TFP growth can diverge from each other as well as from true technology. These distortions give rise to dynamic reallocation effects that imply technology growth needs to be measured from the bottom up rather than from the top down. Using Singapore as an example, we show how incomplete data can be used to estimate aggregate and sectoral technology growth as well as reallocation effects. Our framework can reconcile divergent TFP estimates in Singapore and can resolve other empirical puzzles regarding Asian development. (JEL E22, E23, E25, O33, O41, O47)

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15

Feyrer, James, and Jay Shambaugh. "Global Savings and Global Investment: The Transmission of Identified Fiscal Shocks." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 4, no. 2 (May 1, 2012): 95–114. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/pol.4.2.95.

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This paper examines the effect of exogenous shocks to savings on world capital markets. Exogenous tax increases in the United States (from Romer and Romer 2010) are only partially offset by changes in domestic private savings, and only a small amount is absorbed by increased domestic investment (contra Feldstein and Horioka 1980). Almost half the change in taxes is transmitted abroad through a change in the US current account. Other countries experience decreases in current accounts and increases in investment in response to exogenous US tax increases. We cannot reject symmetric responses across countries with different currency regimes and levels of development. (JEL E21, E22, E23, E62, F32, F42)

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16

Moll, Benjamin. "Productivity Losses from Financial Frictions: Can Self-Financing Undo Capital Misallocation?" American Economic Review 104, no. 10 (October 1, 2014): 3186–221. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.104.10.3186.

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I develop a highly tractable general equilibrium model in which heterogeneous producers face collateral constraints, and study the effect of financial frictions on capital misallocation and aggregate productivity. My economy is isomorphic to a Solow model but with time-varying TFP. I argue that the persistence of idiosyncratic productivity shocks determines both the size of steady-state productivity losses and the speed of transitions: if shocks are persistent, steady-state losses are small but transitions are slow. Even if financial frictions are unimportant in the long run, they tend to matter in the short run and analyzing steady states only can be misleading. (JEL E21, E22, E23, G32, L26, O16)

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17

Jones, Charles I., and Peter J. Klenow. "Beyond GDP? Welfare across Countries and Time." American Economic Review 106, no. 9 (September 1, 2016): 2426–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20110236.

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We propose a summary statistic for the economic well-being of people in a country. Our measure incorporates consumption, leisure, mortality, and inequality, first for a narrow set of countries using detailed micro data, and then more broadly using multi-country datasets. While welfare is highly correlated with GDP per capita, deviations are often large. Western Europe looks considerably closer to the United States, emerging Asia has not caught up as much, and many developing countries are further behind. Each component we introduce plays a significant role in accounting for these differences, with mortality being most important. (JEL D63, E21, E23, E24, I12, O57)

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18

Petrosky-Nadeau, Nicolas, Lu Zhang, and Lars-Alexander Kuehn. "Endogenous Disasters." American Economic Review 108, no. 8 (August 1, 2018): 2212–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20130025.

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Market economies are intrinsically unstable. The standard search model of equilibrium unemployment, once solved accurately with a globally nonlinear algorithm, gives rise endogenously to rare disasters. Intuitively, in the presence of cumulatively large negative shocks, inertial wages remain relatively high, and reduce profits. The marginal costs of hiring run into downward rigidity, which stems from the trading externality of the matching process, and fail to decline relative to profits. Inertial wages and rigid hiring costs combine to stifle job creation flows, depressing the economy into disasters. The disaster dynamics are robust to extensions to home production, capital accumulation, and recursive utility. (JEL E22, E23, E24, E32, J41, J63, N12)

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19

Nguyen, Anh D. M., Luisanna Onnis, and Raffaele Rossi. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Income and Consumption Tax Changes." American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 13, no. 2 (May 1, 2021): 439–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/pol.20170241.

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This paper estimates the effects of exogenous changes in income and consumption taxes. The tax shocks are proxied with a narrative account of tax liability changes in the United Kingdom. Income tax cuts have large effects on GDP, private consumption, and investment. The effects of consumption tax cuts are modest and not statistically significant on GDP and its components. Shifting the burden of taxation from income to consumption is expansionary. Consistent with conventional public finance theories, these results indicate that it is crucial to distinguish between direct and indirect taxation when studying the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy. (JEL E21, E22, E23, H24, H25)

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20

Song, Zheng, Kjetil Storesletten, and Fabrizio Zilibotti. "Growing Like China." American Economic Review 101, no. 1 (February 1, 2011): 196–233. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.101.1.196.

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We construct a growth model consistent with China's economic transition: high output growth, sustained returns on capital, reallocation within the manufacturing sector, and a large trade surplus. Entrepreneurial firms use more productive technologies, but due to financial imperfections they must finance investments through internal savings. State-owned firms have low productivity but survive because of better access to credit markets. High-productivity firms outgrow low-productivity firms if entrepreneurs have sufficiently high savings. The downsizing of financially integrated firms forces domestic savings to be invested abroad, generating a foreign surplus. A calibrated version of the theory accounts quantitatively for China's economic transition. (JEL E21, E22, E23, F43, L60, O16, O53, P23, P24, P31).

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21

Justiniano, Alejandro, Giorgio E. Primiceri, and Andrea Tambalotti. "Is there a Trade-Off between Inflation and Output Stabilization?" American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 5, no. 2 (April 1, 2013): 1–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.5.2.1.

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We find that the answer is no in an estimated DSGE model of the US economy in which exogenous movements in workers' market power are not a major driver of observed economic fluctuations. If they are, the tension between the conflicting stabilization objectives of monetary policy increases, but with negligible effects on the equilibrium behavior of the economy under optimal policy. (JEL E12, E23, E24, E31, E32, E52)

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22

Khaldun, ABM, BR Banik, MAL Akanda, KAMM Rahman, and MM Rahman. "Assessment of genotype-by-environment interactions of white quality protein maize hybrids in Bangladesh." Bangladesh Journal of Agricultural Research 42, no. 2 (June 7, 2017): 259–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.3329/bjar.v42i2.32813.

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Present study assessed genotypes and their interactions with environments (GEI) for plant height, days to maturity and grain yield of 40 maize hybrids including two local checks across five different locations of Bangladesh. Thirty eight white QPM (Quality Protein Maize) hybrids were collected from CIMMYT, Mexico. The AMMI (additive main effect and multiplicative interactions) and GGE (genotype + genotype × environment) model were used to assess the additive and multiplicative effects of the interactions. Significant variations were found for genotypes (G), environments (E) and GEI for all the studied characters. The environment of Gazipur is poor while those of Ishurdi and Rangpur are rich for QPM hybrids production. Considering three parameters viz., mean, bi and S2di, it was evident that all the genotypes showed different responses of adaptability under different environmental conditions. Among the hybrids E21, E23, E30 and E22 exhibited bi~1 and S2di~0 for all the characters under study, which clearly indicated that the hybrids are stable across the environments. The hybrids E11, E25, E37 and E4 had bi value significantly different from the unity with non significant S2di value for one or more characters studied, indicating high responsiveness of the hybrid but suitable for favorable environments only. E5 was a good yielder and stable over environments. Considering the yield potentiality and stability parameters five hybrids were found promising over the locationsBangladesh J. Agril. Res. 42(2): 259-271, June 2017

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23

Jin, Keyu, and Nan Li. "International Transmission with Heterogeneous Sectors." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 10, no. 4 (October 1, 2018): 36–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.20150379.

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This paper documents new facts about the behavior of capital- and labor-intensive goods over the business cycle and also identifies a mechanism that generates international investment co-movement through shifting compositional changes of production and trade across sectors. Our model’s quantitative predictions not only match aggregate and sectoral statistics but also generate empirically plausible sectoral composition effects. Finally, we show that essential segments of the transmission process receive empirical support. (JEL E23, E24, E32, F44, L16)

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24

Barretti, Patrícia Baston, Ricardo Magela de Souza, and Edson Ampélio Pozza. "Bactérias endofíticas como agentes promotores do crescimento de plantas de tomateiro e de inibição in vitro de Ralstonia solanacearum." Ciência e Agrotecnologia 32, no. 3 (June 2008): 731–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/s1413-70542008000300005.

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A partir de 150 isolados de bactérias endofíticas obtidos de folhas, caules e raízes de tomateiros sadios, 53 destacaram-se quanto à habilidade em promover o crescimento de plantas de tomateiro (Solanum lycopersicum L.). Submetidos a uma nova seleção, os isolados UFV-E17, UFV-E22, UFV-E25, UFV-E26, UFV-E27, Bacillus cereus (UFV-E29), UFV-E49, UFLA 06-LS, UFLA 08-LS e UFLA 11-LS apresentaram maior promoção do crescimento. Avaliações semanais de altura e número de folhas e folíolos das plantas aconteceram durante 45 dias. Após a sexta avaliação, mensurou-se a área foliar e o peso da matéria fresca e seca da parte aérea e da raiz das plantas. O isolado UFV-E49 apresentou melhor resultado para altura, área foliar, número de folhas e peso da matéria fresca e seca, tanto da parte aérea quanto da raiz. Dos isolados selecionados, somente dois apresentaram efeito inibitório direto in vitro a Ralstonia solanacearum.

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25

Canova, Fabio, and Luca Gambetti. "Do Expectations Matter? The Great Moderation Revisited." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2, no. 3 (July 1, 2010): 183–205. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.2.3.183.

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We examine the role of expectations in the Great Moderation episode. We derive theoretical restrictions in a New-Keynesian model and test them using measures of expectations obtained from survey data, the Greenbook and bond markets. Expectations explain the dynamics of inflation and interest rates but their importance is roughly unchanged over time. Systems with and without expectations display similar reduced form characteristics. Results are robust to changes in the structure of the empirical model. (JEL E23, E24, E31, E32)

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26

Buser, Joshua R., Kristen N. Segovia, Justin M. Dean, Kerst Nelson, Douglas Beardsley, Xi Gong, Ning Ling Luo, et al. "Timing of Appearance of Late Oligodendrocyte Progenitors Coincides with Enhanced Susceptibility of Preterm Rabbit Cerebral White Matter to Hypoxia-Ischemia." Journal of Cerebral Blood Flow & Metabolism 30, no. 5 (January 13, 2010): 1053–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/jcbfm.2009.286.

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Emerging evidence supports that premature infants are susceptible to both cerebral white and gray matter injury. In a fetal rabbit model of placental insufficiency, preterm rabbits at embryonic day 22 (E22) exhibited histologic evidence of gray matter injury but minimal white matter injury after global hypoxia-ischemia (H-I). We hypothesized that the dissociation between susceptibility to gray and white matter injury at E22 was related to the timing of appearance of late oligodendrocyte progenitors (preOLs) that are particularly vulnerable in preterm human white matter lesions. During normal rabbit oligodendrocyte (OL) lineage progression, early OL progenitors predominated at E22. PreOL density increased between E24 and E25 in major forebrain white matter tracts. After H-I at E22 and E25, we observed a similar magnitude of cerebral H-I, assessed by cortical microvascular blood flow, and gray matter injury, assessed by caspase activation. However, the increased preOL density at E25 was accompanied by a significant increase in acute white matter injury after H-I that coincided with enhanced preOL degeneration. At E29, significant white matter atrophy developed after H-I at E25 but not E22. Thus, the timing of appearance of preOLs coincided with onset of a developmental window of enhanced white but not gray matter susceptibility to H-I.

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27

Niederhäusern, Simona de, Stefania Camellini, Carla Sabia, Ramona Iseppi, Moreno Bondi, and Patrizia Messi. "Antilisterial Activity of Bacteriocins Produced by Lactic Bacteria Isolated from Dairy Products." Foods 9, no. 12 (November 27, 2020): 1757. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/foods9121757.

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Sixty-nine Lactic Acid Bacteria (LAB) and bifidobacteria were isolated and identified from Italian dairy products (raw milk, cream, butter, soft cheese and yoghurt) to find new antimicrobial compounds to use as food bio-preservatives. All the isolates were preliminarily screened by the deferred antagonism method for bacteriocin production. Afterwards, to evaluate the release of bacteriocin in liquid medium, the Cell-Free Supernatant Fluid (CFSF) of the best producers was tested by agar well diffusion assay. The study allowed the selection of three bacteriocin producing strains (Enterococcus faecium E23, Bifidobacterium thermophilum B23 and Lactobacillus bulgaricus L21), endowed with the strongest and broadest inhibitory capability against the pathogen Listeria monocytogenes. The molecular characteristics and the chemical–physical properties of both producers and the respective bacteriocins were studied and compared. The results showed that E. faecium E23 was the best producer strain and its class IIa bacteriocins, called enterocin E23, exhibited a good spectrum of activity towards L. monocytogenes. Enterocin E23 was stable over a wide range of pH and at low temperatures for at least four months and, for this reason, it can be employed in refrigerated foods for the control of L. monocytogenes, the major concern in dairy products.

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Hsieh, Chang-Tai, and Peter J. Klenow. "Development Accounting." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2, no. 1 (January 1, 2010): 207–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.2.1.207.

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Researchers have made much progress in the past 25 years in accounting for the proximate determinants of income levels: physical capital, human capital, and Total Factor Productivity (TFP). But we still know little about why these factors vary. We argue that TFP exerts a powerful influence on output not only directly, but also indirectly, through its effect on physical and human capital accumulation. We discuss why TFP varies across countries, highlighting misallocation of inputs across firms and industries as a key determinant. (JEL E22, E23, F21, F35, O10, O40)

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Lorenzoni, Guido. "A Theory of Demand Shocks." American Economic Review 99, no. 5 (December 1, 2009): 2050–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.99.5.2050.

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This paper presents a model of business cycles driven by shocks to consumer expectations regarding aggregate productivity. Agents are hit by heterogeneous productivity shocks, they observe their own productivity and a noisy public signal regarding aggregate productivity. The public signal gives rise to “noise shocks,” which have the features of aggregate demand shocks: they increase output, employment, and inflation in the short run and have no effects in the long run. Numerical examples suggest that the model can generate sizable amounts of noise-driven volatility. (JEL D83, D84, E21, E23, E32)

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Björklund, Maria, Mikael Carlsson, and Oskar Nordström Skans. "Fixed-Wage Contracts and Monetary Non-neutrality." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 11, no. 2 (April 1, 2019): 171–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.20160213.

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We study the importance of wage rigidities for the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Using uniquely rich micro data on Swedish wage negotiations, we isolate periods when the labor market is covered by fixed-wage contracts. Importantly, negotiations are coordinated in time but their seasonal patterns are far from deterministic. Using a two-regime VAR model, we document that monetary policy shocks have a larger impact on production during fixed-wage episodes as compared to the average response. The results do not seem to be driven by the periodic structure, nor the seasonality, of the renegotiation episodes. (JEL E23, E24, E52, J31, J41)

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Gillitzer, Christian, and Nalini Prasad. "The Effect of Consumer Sentiment on Consumption: Cross-Sectional Evidence from Elections." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 10, no. 4 (October 1, 2018): 234–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.20160244.

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We seek to identify the causal effect of sentiment innovations on consumption. Using unique Australian consumer sentiment survey data, we show that, immediately after elections with a change of government, supporters of the winning party report substantially more optimistic beliefs about economic conditions than supporters of the losing party. We argue that this variation in beliefs is orthogonal to changes in fundamentals and find robust evidence that the shifts in sentiment affect spending intentions. Furthermore, using geographic variation in sentiment, vote shares, and automobile purchases, we find evidence that stated spending intentions are indicative of actual spending. (JEL E23, E24, E32, F44, L16)

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Aksoy, Yunus, Henrique S. Basso, Ron P. Smith, and Tobias Grasl. "Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 11, no. 1 (January 1, 2019): 193–222. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170114.

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We estimate the effect of changes in demographic structure on long-term trends of key macroeconomic variables using a panel VAR for 21 OECD economies from 1970 –2014. The panel data variation assists the identification of demographic effects, while the dynamic structure, incorporating multiple channels of influence, uncovers long-term effects. We propose a theoretical model, relating demographics, innovation, and growth, whose simulations match our empirical findings. The current trend of population aging and low fertility is projected to reduce output growth, investment, and real interest rates across OECD countries. (JEL E22, E23, E32, E43, J11, J13)

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Mukoyama, Toshihiko, and Sophie Osotimehin. "Barriers to Reallocation and Economic Growth: The Effects of Firing Costs." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 11, no. 4 (October 1, 2019): 235–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170170.

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We study how factors that hinder the reallocation of inputs across firms influence aggregate productivity growth. We extend Hopenhayn and Rogerson’s (1993) firm-dynamics model to allow for endogenous innovation. We evaluate the effects of firing taxes on reallocation, innovation, and productivity growth. We find firing taxes can have opposite effects on entrants’ innovation and incumbents’ innovation, and the overall outcome depends on the relative strengths of these forces. In the entrant-driven growth calibration, firing taxes reduce aggregate productivity growth, whereas aggregate productivity growth increases in the incumbent-driven growth calibration. (JEL D24, E23, E24, J23, J24, J62, K31, O31, O47)

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34

Adrian, Tobias, Nina Boyarchenko, and Domenico Giannone. "Vulnerable Growth." American Economic Review 109, no. 4 (April 1, 2019): 1263–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20161923.

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We study the conditional distribution of GDP growth as a function of economic and financial conditions. Deteriorating financial conditions are associated with an increase in the conditional volatility and a decline in the conditional mean of GDP growth, leading the lower quantiles of GDP growth to vary with financial conditions and the upper quantiles to be stable over time. Upside risks to GDP growth are low in most periods while downside risks increase as financial conditions become tighter. We argue that amplification mechanisms in the financial sector generate the observed growth vulnerability dynamics. (JEL C53, E23, E27, E32, E44)

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35

Hsieh, Chang-Tai, and Peter J. Klenow. "Relative Prices and Relative Prosperity." American Economic Review 97, no. 3 (May 1, 2007): 562–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.97.3.562.

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The positive correlation between real investment rates and real income levels across countries is driven largely by differences in the price of investment relative to output. The high relative price of investment in poor countries is due to the low price of consumption goods in those countries. Investment prices are no higher in poor countries. Thus, the low real investment rates in poor countries are not driven by high tax or tariff rates on investment. Poor countries, instead, appear to be plagued by low efficiency in producing investment goods and in producing consumer goods to trade for them. (JEL E22, E23, O16, O47)

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36

Azzimonti, Marina. "Barriers to Investment in Polarized Societies." American Economic Review 101, no. 5 (August 1, 2011): 2182–204. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.101.5.2182.

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I present a tractable dynamic model of political economy where disagreements about the composition of public spending result in implementation of short-sighted policies. Excessive taxation reduces the return to physical capital and hence investment rates, which slows down growth along the transition. In the long run, output, consumption and welfare are inefficiently low. The larger is the degree of polarization, the greater is the inefficiency. Political stability mitigates the effects of polarization by making the incumbent internalize the dynamic inefficiencies introduced by the choice of growth-retarding policies. JEL: D72, E22, E23, E62, H25, O16, O17

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37

Corsetti, Giancarlo, and Panagiotis Th Konstantinou. "What Drives US Foreign Borrowing? Evidence on the External Adjustment to Transitory and Permanent Shocks." American Economic Review 102, no. 2 (April 1, 2012): 1062–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.102.2.1062.

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The joint dynamics of US net output, consumption, and (the market value of) foreign assets and liabilities, characterized empirically following Lettau and Ludvigson (2004), is shown to be consistent with current account theory. US consumption is virtually insulated from transitory shocks, while these contribute to variations in net output and gross foreign positions—consumption is smoothed against temporary fluctuations in returns. A single permanent shock—naturally interpreted as a supply shock—raises consumption swiftly while causing net output to adjust gradually. This leads to persistent, procyclical external deficits, while moving gross assets and liabilities in the same direction. JEL: E21, E23, F32, F34

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38

Lanteri, Andrea. "The Market for Used Capital: Endogenous Irreversibility and Reallocation over the Business Cycle." American Economic Review 108, no. 9 (September 1, 2018): 2383–419. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20160131.

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This paper studies the business-cycle dynamics of secondary markets for physical capital and their effects on the macroeconomy. In the data, both capital reallocation and the price of used capital are procyclical. To rationalize these facts, I propose a model with endogenous partial irreversibility, where used investment goods are imperfect substitutes for new ones because of firm-level capital specificity. Equilibrium dynamics in the market for used capital induce countercyclical dispersion of marginal products of capital, propagate movements in aggregate TFP, and provide a microfoundation for state-dependent nonconvex capital adjustment costs. (JEL E22, E23, E32, G31)

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39

Galí, Jordi, and Luca Gambetti. "On the Sources of the Great Moderation." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 1, no. 1 (January 1, 2009): 26–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.1.1.26.

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The Great Moderation in the US economy has been accompanied by large changes in the comovements among output, hours, and labor productivity. Those changes are reflected in both conditional and unconditional second moments as well as in the impulse responses to identified shocks. Among other changes, our findings point to an increase in the volatility of hours relative to output, a shrinking contribution of nontechnology shocks to output volatility, and a change in the cyclical response of labor productivity to those shocks. That evidence suggests a more complex picture than that associated with “good luck” explanations of the Great Moderation. (JEL: E23, E24, J22, J24)

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40

Reis, Ricardo, and Mark W. Watson. "Relative Goods' Prices, Pure Inflation, and The Phillips Correlation." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2, no. 3 (July 1, 2010): 128–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.2.3.128.

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This paper uses a dynamic factor model for the quarterly changes in consumption goods' prices in the United States since 1959 to separate them into three independent components: idiosyncratic relative-price changes, a low-dimensional index of aggregate relative-price changes, and an index of equiproportional changes in all inflation rates that we label “pure” inflation. We use the estimates to answer two questions. First, what share of the variability of inflation is associated with each component, and how are they related to conventional measures of monetary policy and relative-price shocks? Second, what drives the Phillips correlation between inflation and measures of real activity? (JEL E21, E23, E31, E52)

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41

McGrattan, Ellen R., and Edward C. Prescott. "Unmeasured Investment and the Puzzling US Boom in the 1990s." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 2, no. 4 (October 1, 2010): 88–123. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.2.4.88.

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For the 1990s, the basic neoclassical growth model predicts a depressed economy, when in fact the US economy boomed. We extend the base model by introducing intangible investment and non-neutral technology change with respect to producing intangible investment goods and find that the 1990s are not puzzling in light of this new theory. There is microeconomic and macroeconomic evidence motivating our extension, and the theory's predictions are in conformity with US national accounts and capital gains. We compare accounting measures with corresponding measures for our model economy and find that standard accounting measures greatly understate the 1990s boom. (JEL E22, E23, O33, O47)

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42

Burstein, Ariel, and Javier Cravino. "Measured Aggregate Gains from International Trade." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 7, no. 2 (April 1, 2015): 181–218. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.20120008.

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We examine the implications of workhorse trade models for how aggregate productivity, real GDP and real consumption, as measured by statistical agencies, respond to changes in trade costs. In a range of models, changes in measured productivity are equal to the inverse of an export-share weighted average of changes in variable trade costs incurred domestically. Under certain conditions, despite the multiple biases in the CPI, measured real consumption captures the first-order effects of changes in variable trade costs on welfare. Through the lens of these results, we interpret some of the empirical work on measured gains from trade. (JEL E21, E23, F11, F43)

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43

Buera, Francisco J., and Benjamin Moll. "Aggregate Implications of a Credit Crunch: The Importance of Heterogeneity." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 7, no. 3 (July 1, 2015): 1–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.20130212.

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We take an off-the-shelf model with financial frictions and heterogeneity, and study the mapping from a credit crunch, modeled as a shock to collateral constraints, to simple aggregate wedges. We study three variants of this model that only differ in the form of underlying heterogeneity. We find that in all three model variants a credit crunch shows up as a different wedge: efficiency, investment, and labor wedges. Furthermore, all three model variants have an undistorted Euler equation for the aggregate of firm owners. These results highlight the limitations of using representative agent models to identify sources of business cycle fluctuations. (JEL E22, E23, E32, E43, E44)

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44

Nakamura, Emi, Jón Steinsson, and Miao Liu. "Are Chinese Growth and Inflation Too Smooth? Evidence from Engel Curves." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 8, no. 3 (July 1, 2016): 113–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.20150074.

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China has experienced remarkably stable growth and inflation in recent years according to official statistics. We use systematic discrepancies between cross-sectional and time-series Engel curves to construct alternative estimates of Chinese growth and inflation. Our estimates suggest that official statistics present a smoothed version of reality. Official inflation rose in the 2000s, but our estimates indicate that true inflation was still higher and consumption growth was overstated. In contrast, inflation was overstated and growth understated during the low-inflation 1990s. These patterns hold for the food Engel curve, and for numerous other categories, such as grain as a fraction of food. (JEL C82, E21, E23, E31, O11, P24)

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45

Bento, Pedro, and Diego Restuccia. "Misallocation, Establishment Size, and Productivity." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 9, no. 3 (July 1, 2017): 267–303. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.20150281.

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We consider a model of heterogeneous production units with endogenous entry and productivity investment to assess the quantitative impact of policy distortions: when the productivity elasticity of distortions increases from 0.09 in the United States to 0.5 in India, aggregate output and average establishment size fall by 53 and 86 percent (37 and 0 percent in the standard factor misallocation model). Entry productivity and factor misallocation contribute equally to the reduction in output, whereas lower life-cycle productivity growth is fully offset by increased entry and reduced productivity dispersion. Establishment size differences are consistent with evidence from a new comprehensive cross-country dataset. (JEL D92, E23, E24, L25, L60, O10, O14)

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46

Anzoategui, Diego, Diego Comin, Mark Gertler, and Joseba Martinez. "Endogenous Technology Adoption and R&D as Sources of Business Cycle Persistence." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 11, no. 3 (July 1, 2019): 67–110. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170269.

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We examine the hypothesis that the slowdown in productivity following the Great Recession was in significant part an endogenous response to the contraction in demand that induced the downturn. We motivate, develop, and estimate a model with an endogenous TFP mechanism that allows for costly development and adoption of technologies. Our main finding is that a significant fraction of the post-Great Recession fall in productivity was an endogenous phenomenon, suggesting that demand factors played an important role in the postcrisis slowdown of capacity growth. More generally, we provide insight into why recoveries from financial crises may be so slow. (JEL E23, E24, E32, E44, G01)

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47

Monge-Naranjo, Alexander, Juan M. Sánchez, and Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis. "Natural Resources and Global Misallocation." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 11, no. 2 (April 1, 2019): 79–126. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170381.

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Are production factors allocated efficiently across countries? To differentiate misallocation from factor intensity differences, we provide a new methodology to estimate output shares of natural resources based solely on current rent flows data. With this methodology, we construct a new dataset of estimates for the output shares of natural resources for a large panel of countries. In sharp contrast with Caselli and Feyrer (2007), we find a significant and persistent degree of misallocation of physical capital. We also find a remarkable movement toward efficiency during last 35 years, associated with the elimination of interventionist policies and driven by domestic accumulation. (JEL E22, E23, O13, Q21, Q31, Q32)

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48

Brynjolfsson, Erik, Daniel Rock, and Chad Syverson. "The Productivity J-Curve: How Intangibles Complement General Purpose Technologies." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 13, no. 1 (January 1, 2021): 333–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.20180386.

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General purpose technologies (GPTs) like AI enable and require significant complementary investments. These investments are often intangible and poorly measured in national accounts. We develop a model that shows how this can lead to underestimation of productivity growth in a new GPTs early years and, later, when the benefits of intangible investments are harvested, productivity growth overestimation. We call this phenomenon the Productivity J-curve. We apply our method to US data and find that adjusting for intangibles related to computer hardware and software yields a TFP level that is 15.9 percent higher than official measures by the end of 2017. (JEL E22, E23, G31, L63, L86)

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49

Krane, Spencer D. "Professional Forecasters' Views of Permanent and Transitory Shocks to GDP." American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 3, no. 1 (January 1, 2011): 184–211. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/mac.3.1.184.

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This paper examines how the professional forecasters comprising the Blue Chip Economic Consensus view shocks to GDP. I use an unobserved components model of the forecast revisions to identify forecasters' perceptions of permanent and transitory shocks to GDP. The model indicates forecasters: attribute about two-thirds of the variance in current-period revisions to permanent shocks; view the relative importance of permanent shocks similar to the estimates of some simple univariate econometric models; see high-frequency indicators of economic activity as being informative about both permanent and transitory shocks; and react to incoming data differently during periods of economic weakness. (JEL C51, C53, E23, E27, E32, E37)

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50

Müller, Andreas, Kjetil Storesletten, and Fabrizio Zilibotti. "Sovereign Debt and Structural Reforms." American Economic Review 109, no. 12 (December 1, 2019): 4220–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20161457.

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We construct a dynamic theory of sovereign debt and structural reforms with limited enforcement and moral hazard. A sovereign country in recession wishes to smooth consumption. It can also undertake costly reforms to speed up recovery. The sovereign can renege on contracts by suffering a stochastic cost. The constrained optimal allocation (COA) prescribes imperfect insurance with non-monotonic dynamics for consumption and effort. The COA is decentralized by a competitive equilibrium with markets for renegotiable GDP-linked one-period debt. The equilibrium features debt overhang: reform effort decreases in a high debt range. We also consider environments with less complete markets. (JEL D82, E21, E23, E32, F34, H63)

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