Relevant bibliographies by topics / Earthquake interactions and probability

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  1. Journal articles
  2. Dissertations / Theses
  3. Books
  4. Book chapters
  5. Conference papers
  6. Reports

Academic literature on the topic 'Earthquake interactions and probability'

Author: Grafiati
Published: 10 March 2023
Last updated: 19 July 2025

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Journal articles on the topic "Earthquake interactions and probability"

1

Jones, Lucile M. "Foreshocks, aftershocks, and earthquake probabilities: Accounting for the landers earthquake." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 84, no. 3 (1994): 892–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/bssa0840030892.

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Abstract The equation to determine the probability that an earthquake occurring near a major fault will be a foreshock to a mainshock on that fault is modified to include the case of aftershocks to a previous earthquake occurring near the fault. The addition of aftershocks to the background seismicity makes its less probable that an earthquake will be a foreshock, because nonforeshocks have become more common. As the aftershocks decay with time, the probability that an earthquake will be a foreshock increases. However, fault interactions between the first mainshock and the major fault can increase the long-term probability of a characteristic earthquake on that fault, which will, in turn, increase the probability that an event is a foreshock, compensating for the decrease caused by the aftershocks.
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Tao, Zheng Ru, Xia Xin Tao, and Wei Jiang. "A Review on Long-Term Evaluation of Occurrence Probability for Subduction-Zone Earthquakes in Eastern Japan." Applied Mechanics and Materials 166-169 (May 2012): 2190–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.166-169.2190.

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Evaluation approach of occurrence probability for subduction-zone earthquakes adopted in “National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan” is reviewed, especially for the area of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (2011 Tohoku Earthquake in short). One problem is pointed that the occurrence probability of such a large earthquake cannot be predicted just from seismicity in a region small like Miyagi-ken-Oki area or southern Sanriku-Oki. The whole subduction zone in eastern Japan is suggested to be taken into account with the interaction between the energy released in quakes. Finally, a simple test to predict the next large earthquake in the subduction-zone by means of Artificial Neural Network is presented, and the result for the years of 2008-2018 shows there may be an earthquake with magnitude up to 8.8 in the zone.
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Dan Tian, Dan Tian, Yong-Jie Xu Dan Tian, Tong-Lei Qu Yong-Jie Xu, Rong-Guang Jia Tong-Lei Qu, Hao Zhang Rong-Guang Jia, and Wen-Jie Song Hao Zhang. "A Bayesian Network Model for Rough Estimations of Casualties by Strong Earthquakes in Emergency Mode." 電腦學刊 33, no. 6 (2022): 083–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.53106/199115992022123306007.

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<p>Rough estimations in emergency mode are now playing an important role in making key decisions for managing disasters including search and rescue. Most of the studies only paid attention to the earthquakes and ignored the presence of disaster chains and the hazard interactions in earthquakes. Bayesian Networks are ideal tools to explore the causal relationships between events, combine prior knowledge and observed data, and are integrated to solve uncertain problems. In such situations, we present improvements based on a Bayesian Network Model in approaches to estimations of casualties in earthquakes. According to the development of the earthquake disaster chain in literature, the proposed model extracts the key events of earthquakes, considers the hazard interactions, and constructs the Bayesian Networks based on a scenario-based method, to deal with the events in the earthquakes. In the model, lifeline system damages, fires, landslides, and debris flow have been integrated into the networks. The conditional probability tables are encoded by using the collected cases. Validations in the Netica allow the simulation of expected shaking intensity and estimation of the expected casualties by strong earthquakes in emergency mode. Compared to the literature, the method is closer to the fact in the rough estimations, providing important information for our response to earthquakes. Further, rough estimations are started when only seismic intensity or fewer earthquake source parameters are available.</p> <p> </p>
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Liu, Gang, Qinjin Fan, Weile Li, et al. "Spatio-temporal network modelling and analysis of global strong earthquakes (Mw ≥ 6.0)." Journal of the Geological Society 177, no. 5 (2020): 883–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1144/jgs2019-151.

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We employ a spatio-temporal network modelling approach to identify possible relations between strong earthquakes and spatial regions worldwide. A global strong earthquake dataset containing 7736 events (Mw ≥ 6.0) from 1964 to 2018 is used. Statistical results identify power-law relationships and heavy tail phenomena in the spatial patterns of strong earthquakes. The interactions between regions follow the same law, with a few regions that may be hit by successive strong earthquakes with high probability. Also, we find that the interconnections between regions are mainly related to the succession of events in time, whereas the distribution of events is extremely inhomogeneous in space. This study provides a research prototype for the spatio-temporal analysis of global strong earthquakes, laying a foundation for obtaining insights into the network modelling approach for global strong earthquakes.
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Mangira, O., E. Papadimitriou, G. Tsaklidis, and G. Vasiliadis. "SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR THE CORINTH GULF AND CENTRAL IONIAN ISLANDS BY MEANS OF THE LINKED STRESS RELEASE MODEL." Bulletin of the Geological Society of Greece 50, no. 3 (2017): 1369. http://dx.doi.org/10.12681/bgsg.11850.

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Εarthquake generation causes spatio-temporal stress changes on adjacent fault segments that can alter the occurrence probability of subsequent earthquakes onto them. The interaction is investigated with the Linked Stress Release Model, applied to fit historical data from two areas that accommodate high seismicity, the Corinth Gulf and the Central Ionian Islands. These two areas are divided in two subareas, based on seismotectonic features; Corinth Gulf is divided in the western and eastern part, whereas the area of Central Ionian Islands is divided in Kefalonia and Lefkada subareas. The results establish interactions between the subareas, especially in the Central Ionian Islands, and underline the differences in tectonic structures and earthquake mechanisms between these areas. Particularly, the seismicity in the Central Ionian Islands is proved to be more complex and active and yet more difficult to be examined, whereas the LSRM fits the Corinth Gulf data more easily.
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Chen, Yuxuan, Mian Liu, and Gang Luo. "Complex Temporal Patterns of Large Earthquakes: Devil’s Staircases." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 110, no. 3 (2020): 1064–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120190148.

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ABSTRACT Periodic or quasiperiodic earthquake recurrence on individual faults, as predicted by the elastic rebound model, is not common in nature. Instead, most earthquake sequences are complex and variable, and often show clusters of events separated by long but irregular intervals of quiescence. Such temporal patterns are especially common for large earthquakes in complex fault zones or regional and global fault networks. Mathematically described as the Devil’s Staircase, such temporal patterns are a fractal property of nonlinear complex systems, in which a change of any part (e.g., rupture of a fault or fault segment) could affect the behavior of the whole system. We found that the lengths of the quiescent intervals between clusters are inversely related to tectonic-loading rates, whereas earthquake clustering can be attributed to many factors, including earthquake-induced viscoelastic relaxation and fault interaction. Whereas the underlying causes of the characteristics of earthquake sequences are not fully known, we attempted to statistically characterize these sequences. We found that most earthquake sequences are burstier than the Poisson model commonly used in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, implying a higher probability of repeating events soon after a large earthquake.
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Muksin, Zainal, Abdur Rahim, Suradika, et al. "Assessing Megathrust Earthquake Probability, Public Stress, and Government Policy Recommendations in the Mentawai-Siberut Region, Indonesia." Journal of Environmental & Earth Sciences 7, no. 3 (2025): 20–33. https://doi.org/10.30564/jees.v7i3.8135.

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This study aims to assess seismic hazards and develop effective mitigation strategies for the Mentawai-Siberut region in Indonesia. The research uses quantitative and qualitative methods to analyze historical seismic data, predictive models, and stakeholder perspectives. The quantitative analysis includes seismic hazard estimation using the Gutenberg-Richter formula, ground movement analysis based on GMPE, and time interval calculations to forecast future earthquakes. Qualitative methods involve Policy Network Theory to explore the roles and interactions of various stakeholders in disaster management, including government agencies, theIndonesian Archipelago Youth Association (NGOs), local communities, and academic researchers. Findings reveal significant seismic activity in the area, with historical earthquakes of magnitudes 8 and 9 occurring at intervals of 18 to 232 years. Predictions suggest a potential magnitude 8 earthquake around 2083, with a megathrust event likely around 2123. The study also identifies economic costs and losses, with damage from a megathrust estimated between USD 1.5–2.5 billion and 10-20 billion, including destroyed homes and displaced populations. Challenges include infrastructure limitations, logistical constraints, and enhancing disaster preparedness and response. The study emphasizes the importance of improving infrastructure, strengthening disaster preparedness, and updating early warning systems. Effective collaboration among stakeholders and integrating local knowledge into disaster management strategies are crucial for enhancing regional resilience. Recommendations include completing infrastructure projects like the Trans-Mentawai Road, increasing community engagement, and utilizing scientific data for evidence-based policymaking. Addressing these recommendations and limitations is essential for developing a robust disaster management framework to mitigate regional seismic risks.
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Hamdin, Ayad O., and Mohammad M. F. Hussein. "An application of Wavelet Markov Chains Model to Study Earthquake Occurrence." Tikrit Journal of Administrative and Economic Sciences 19, no. 61, 2 (2023): 334–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.25130/tjaes.19.61.2.18.

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The Arabian Plate, which is colliding with the Iranian (Eurasian) Plate, is where Iraq is located in the northeastern corner. An active Zagros seismic belt is formed by active seismicity at the interaction between the two plates. The research aims study the transition probability between the states of earthquake occurrence and estimate earthquake risk states. Use wavelet Markov chain model which is modern probability theory studies random processes for which the knowledge of previous outcomes influences predictions for future experiments. The data obtained from the Earth Scope website during the year (January 2013 to November 2022). The results show that after 115 months, the chance of an earthquake occurrence not being felt or being felt rarely is (0.009). While the chance of an earthquake occurrence being felt slightly by some people is (0.620), the chance of an earthquake occurrence being felt frequently by people is (0.124), and the chance of an earthquake occurrence being felt by the majority of people in the affected area is (0.237). Everyone believes that the last chance of an earthquake occurring (causing varying degrees of damage to poorly constructed buildings) is 0.008.
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Jena, Ratiranjan, Abdallah Shanableh, Rami Al-Ruzouq, et al. "An Integration of Deep Learning and Transfer Learning for Earthquake-Risk Assessment in the Eurasian Region." Remote Sensing 15, no. 15 (2023): 3759. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs15153759.

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The problem of estimating earthquake risk is one of the primary themes for researchers and investigators in the field of geosciences. The combined assessment of spatial probability and the determination of earthquake risk at large scales is challenging. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, there no updated earthquake-hazard-and-risk assessments for the Eurasia region have been published since 1999. Considering that Eurasia is characterized by a seismically active Alpine–Himalayan fault zone and the Pacific Ring of Fire, which are frequently affected by devastating events, a continental-scale risk assessment for Eurasia is necessary to check the global applicability of developed methods and to update the earthquake-hazard, -vulnerability, and -risk maps. The current study proposes an integrated deep-transfer-learning approach called the gated recurrent unit–simple recurrent unit (GRU–SRU) to estimate earthquake risk in Eurasia. In this regard, the GRU model estimates the spatial probability, while the SRU model evaluates the vulnerability. To this end, spatial probability assessment (SPA), and earthquake-vulnerability assessment (EVA) results were integrated to generate risk A, while the earthquake-hazard assessment (EHA) and EVA were considered to generate risk B. This research concludes that in the case of earthquake-risk assessment (ERA), the results obtained for Risk B were better than those for risk A. Using this approach, we also evaluated the stability of the factors and interpreted the interaction values to form a spatial prediction. The accuracy of our proposed integrated approach was examined by means of a comparison between the obtained deep learning (DL)-based results and the maps generated by the Global Earthquake Model (GEM). The accuracy of the SPA was 93.17%, while that of the EVA was 89.33%.
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Altun, Gokcen. "Log-Linear Model Analysis of Aftershock Sequences: A Review on the 6 February Earthquakes in Turkey." Cumhuriyet Science Journal 45, no. 2 (2024): 437–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.17776/csj.1387861.

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Researchers have conducted numerous studies on earthquakes and aftershocks, some of which have utilized statistical analysis methods. However, there is no direct research examining the interaction between variables thought to influence aftershocks following major earthquakes. In this study, 2194 aftershocks with a magnitude of 3 or higher that occurred after two major earthquakes in Turkey on February 6, 2023 were analyzed using log-linear models with respect to variables such as depth, magnitude, time, and city. At the end of the study, all four primary variables - city, magnitude, depth, and time - were found to be statistically significant. Based on the parameter estimation values, it was found that the probability of aftershocks occurring in Malatya was 1.17 times greater than in Adıyaman, 2.82 times greater than in Gaziantep, and 1.38 times greater than in Hatay, while the probability of aftershocks occurring in Kahramanmaraş was 3 times greater than in Malatya. Thus, it can be said that the aftershocks are influenced by the center of the major earthquake. Additionally, it was found that the probability of aftershocks with a magnitude between 3 and 3.5 was 1.4 times greater than those with a magnitude of 4 or higher, and the probability of aftershocks with a depth of less than 10 kilometers was 2 times greater. We believe that the results of this study will provide information on aftershocks that occur after major earthquakes and will be helpful for future studies.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Earthquake interactions and probability"

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Stella, Enrico. "The analysis of the collapse of a precast r.c. industrial building during the 29th may 2012 emilia romagna earthquake." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2014. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/8009/.

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Analysis of the collapse of a precast r.c. industrial building during the 2012 Emilia earthquake, focus on the failure mechanisms in particular on the flexure-shear interactions. Analysis performed by a time history analysis using a FEM model with the software SAP2000. Finally a reconstruction of the collapse on the basis of the numerical data coming from the strength capacity of the elements failed, using formulation for lightly reinforced columns with high shear and bending moment.
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Guillaud, Lucile M. (Lucile Marie). "Probability of derailment under earthquake conditions." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/38236.

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Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2006.<br>Includes bibliographical references (leaves 141-144).<br>A quantitative assessment of the probability of derailment under earthquake conditions is presented. Two derailment modes are considered: by vibratory motion - during the ground motion - and by permanent track deformation - after the motion ended. Criteria for derailment that apply to both modes are derived in terms of peak transversal acceleration and peak transversal displacement. This allows a direct comparison between the two causes of derailment. We find that the first mode of derailment (by vibratory motion) dominates over the second mode (by track damage). The model considers the effect of spatial non-homogeneities in soil and structural characteristic and the incoherence of the ground motion into the assessment of derailment risk. The lateral motion experienced by the train under non-synchronous vibration of the track is obtained as the superposition of two contributions: one is the track motion at a fixed location and the other is the motion as the train travels on deformed tracks. Under linear elastic conditions, a method to obtain the power spectral density function for ground acceleration is presented and used to obtain acceleration and displacement response spectra.<br>(cont.) The second component of motion depends on speed. It is found that the train motion due to track deformation has small effects at ordinary speeds but that it becomes noticeable as the speed increases and the support spacing decreases. In general, it is shown that changes in soil and structural properties present a higher risk for derailment by vibratory motion. In some cases, the second component of train motion may increase the acceleration due to track motion at a single location by a factor of two. The analysis is first done assuming linear behavior of the soil and structure and then nonlinearities and permanent deformations are included. The elastic analysis is found to be adequate, except for structures with natural periods exceeding 1 second where the elastic analysis yields conservative estimates in comparison with the inelastic case.<br>by Lucile M. Guillaud.<br>S.M.
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Budimir, Mirianna. "Cascading natural hazards : probability and loss modelling for earthquakes and earthquake-triggered landslides." Thesis, University of Southampton, 2015. https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/378652/.

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Yetton, Mark D. "The probability and consequences of the next alpine fault earthquake, South Island, New Zealand." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Geology, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/6879.

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Detailed paleoseismic investigation of the Alpine Fault, South Island, New Zealand, has been undertaken at locations which bracket the central and north sections of the fault, between the Hokitika and Ahaura River. A total of seven trenches and pits have been excavated at four localities along approximately 75 kilometres of the fault. From these excavations a total of 16 radiocarbon dates provide age constraints on the timing of the most recent two earthquakes. This trenching demonstrates that the most recent rupture occurred after 1660 AD, and most probably around 1700 - 1750 AD. There is consistent evidence for this event in the trenches in the central section of the fault. The surface rupture has extended into the north section of the fault as far as the Haupiri River area, which is 25 km northeast of the Alpine Fault junction with the Hope Fault. An earlier event at around 1600 AD can be recognised throughout the study area, and this is the most recent event in the trench locations north of the Haupiri River. An updated record of landslide and aggradation terrace ages is consistent with two earthquakes over this period, but this does not significantly refine the estimates of their timing. However, the analysis of indigenous forest age in Westland and Buller reveals two periods of synchronous regional forest damage at 1625 ± 15 AD and 1715 ± 15 AD. I infer that these two episodes of forest damage correspond to the two earthquakes revealed in the trenches for this same time period. Analysis of growth rings in trees which are old enough to have survived these earthquakes indicates that the most recent event occurred in 1717 AD. The growth ring anomalies also indicate a northeast earthquake limit near the Haupiri River. The most recent 1717 AD event appears to have been a synchronous rupture for a distance of over 375 km, from Milford Sound in the south Westland section of the fault, northeast to the Haupiri River. Based on the forest disturbance record, the earlier earthquake at 1625 ± 15 AD had a rupture length of at least 250 km, but further work is required to determine the southwest and northeast limits of this event. A range of methods is used here to estimate the probability of the next earthquake occurring on the central section of the Alpine Fault and all the calculated probabilities are relatively high. The most robust method, that of Nishenko and Buland 1987, suggests a conditional fifty-year probability in the order of 65 ± 15%. A sensitivity analysis indicates that the conditional probabilities of rupture are not significantly affected by assumptions regards the exact timing of the last earthquake, or even the number of most recent earthquakes, and conditional fifty-year probabilities of rupture remain at around 50% or higher. Based on the previous earthquake events, the next Alpine Fault earthquake is likely to have a Moment Magnitude of 8 ± 0.25, and will have a widely felt regional impact. Very strong ground shaking will occur in the epicentral area of the Southern Alps and central Westland. For most of the central South Island the ground shaking is likely to be stronger than that experienced in any other historical earthquake. Landslides and liquefaction will cause the greatest immediate damage to the natural environment, and in the longer-term increased sediment loads will cause aggradation, channel avulsion, and flooding in the numerous rivers which drain the epicentral region. There will also be substantial and widespread damage to the built environment, in some cases at a considerable distance from the epicentre. Because of the rugged nature of the topography of the central South Island, and the expected regional extent of the earthquake shaking, one of the greatest problems during the post earthquake recovery phase will be difficulty in communication and access.
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Gros, Andreas. "Interactions in the evolution of dispersal distance and emigration probability." Doctoral thesis, kostenfrei, 2008. http://www.opus-bayern.de/uni-wuerzburg/volltexte/2008/2922/.

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Katakami, Satoshi. "Significance of Stress Interactions Related to the Occurrence of Shallow Slow Earthquakes." Kyoto University, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/253094.

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Hur, Jieun. "Seismic performance evaluation of switchboard cabinets using nonlinear numerical models." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/45813.

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Past earthquake events have shown that seismic damage to electrical power systems in commercial buildings, hospitals, and other systems such as public service facilities can cause serious economic losses as well as operational problems. A methodology for evaluation of the seismic vulnerability of electrical power systems is needed and all essential components of the system must be included. A key system component is the switchboard cabinet which houses many different elements which control and monitor electrical power usage and distribution within a building. Switchboard cabinets vary in size and complexity and are manufactured by a number of different suppliers; a typical cabinet design was chosen for detailed evaluation in this investigation. This study presents a comprehensive framework for the evaluation of the seismic performance of electrical switchboard cabinets. This framework begins with the introduction and description of the essential equipment in building electrical power systems and explains possible seismic damage to this equipment. The shortcomings of previous studies are highlighted and advanced finite element models are developed to aid in their vulnerability estimation. Unlike previous research in this area, this study proposes practical, computationally efficient, and versatile numerical models, which can capture the critical nonlinear behavior of switchboard cabinets subjected to seismic excitations. A major goal of the current study was the development of nonlinear numerical models that can accommodate various support boundary conditions ranging from fixed, elasto-plastic to free. Using both linear and nonlinear dynamic analyses, this study presents an enhanced evaluation of the seismic behavior of switchboard cabinets. First the dynamic characteristics of switchboard cabinets are determined and then their seismic performance is assessed through nonlinear time history analysis using an expanded suite of ground motions. The seismic responses and associated ground motions are described and analyzed using probabilistic seismic demand models (PSDMs). Based on the PSDMs, the effectiveness and practicality of common intensity measures are discussed for different components. Correlation of intensity measures and seismic responses are then estimated for each component, and their seismic performance and uncertainties are quantified in terms of engineering demand parameters. The results of this study are intended for use in the seismic vulnerability assessment of essential electrical equipment in order to achieve more reliable electrical power systems resulting in reduced overall risk of both physical and operational failures of this important class of nonstructural components.
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Catalli, Flaminia <1977&gt. "Development and application of a physical model for the estimate of the rate and probability of earthquake occurrence." Doctoral thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2007. http://amsdottorato.unibo.it/356/1/Tesi_CATALLI_07.pdf.

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Catalli, Flaminia <1977&gt. "Development and application of a physical model for the estimate of the rate and probability of earthquake occurrence." Doctoral thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2007. http://amsdottorato.unibo.it/356/.

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Herovic, Emina. "THE CHALLENGES OF COMMUNICATING LOW PROBABILITY AND HIGH CONSEQUENCE RISK: RECOMMENDATIONS FOR EARTHQUAKE PRE-CRISIS AND EMERGENCY-RISK COMMUNICATION." UKnowledge, 2016. http://uknowledge.uky.edu/comm_etds/50.

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The Crisis and Emergency-Risk Communication (CERC) model is effective in providing communication recommendations for public health agencies and shows potential for use by other agencies with similar crises characterizations. The current study explores the challenges of earthquake scientists in communicating earthquake risk during the pre-crisis stage in order to grasp experts’ experience and gain insight into the complex and multifaceted world of communicating earthquake risk. The researcher integrates the in-depth knowledge with the recommendations of the pre-crisis stage of the CERC model. This study employs qualitative interviewing with earthquake scientists (N = 21) from the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC). Categorized under general challenges, communication challenges, and communicating probability challenges, findings from this study indicate that earthquake scientists face eight unique challenges, such as communicating uncertainty, emphasizing their responsibility as solely hazard communicators, and keeping public attention during earthquake quiet periods. Implications for earthquake scientists during the pre-crisis stage of CERC are discussed and recommendations are provided.
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Books on the topic "Earthquake interactions and probability"

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1939-, Williams M. E., Nishenko S. P, Ebel J. E, Geological Survey (U.S.), United States. Federal Emergency Management Agency., and New England States Earthquake Consortium., eds. Proceedings of the working group meeting on northeast United States earthquake probability, April 28-29, 1993, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts. U.S. Geological Survey, 1995.

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Manolis, G. D. Stochastic structural dynamics in earthquake engineering. WITPress, 2001.

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1939-, Williams M. E., Nishenko S. P, Ebel J. E, Geological Survey (U.S.), United States. Federal Emergency Management Agency., and New England States Earthquake Consortium., eds. Proceedings of the working group meeting on northeast United States earthquake probability, April 28-29, 1993, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts. U.S. Geological Survey, 1995.

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Shamsher, Prakash, American Society of Civil Engineers. Committee on Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering., and ASCE National Convention (1997 : Minneapolis, Minn.), eds. Seismic analysis and design for soil-pile-structure interactions: Proceedings of a session sponsored by the Committee on Geotechnical Earthquake Engineering of the Geo-Institute of the American Society of Civil Engineers in conjunction with the ASCE National Convention in Minneapolis, Minnesota, October 5-8, 1997. The Society, 1997.

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United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration., ed. A remote-sensing based technique to account for sub-grid scale variability of land surface properties. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 1995.

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L, Crosson William, and United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration., eds. Regional-scale hydrology with a new land surface processes model. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 1995.

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L, Crosson William, and United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration., eds. Regional-scale hydrology with a new land surface processes model. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 1995.

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L, Crosson William, and United States. National Aeronautics and Space Administration., eds. Regional-scale hydrology with a new land surface processes model. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 1995.

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Peter, Schroeder-Heister, ed. Advances in Proof-Theoretic Semantics. Springer, 2014.

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Koliopoulos, P. K., and G. D. Manolis. Stochastic Structural Dynamics in Earthquake Engineering (Advances in Earthquake Engineering, Vol. 8). Computational Mechanics, Inc., 2001.

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Book chapters on the topic "Earthquake interactions and probability"

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Cheng, Chin-Tung, Pao-Shan Hsieh, Po-Shen Lin, Yin-Tung Yen, and Chung-Han Chan. "Probability Seismic Hazard Mapping of Taiwan." In Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-36197-5_100-1.

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Cheng, Chin-Tung, Pao-Shan Hsieh, Po-Shen Lin, Yin-Tung Yen, and Chung-Han Chan. "Probability Seismic Hazard Mapping of Taiwan." In Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-35344-4_100.

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Li, Jie, and Jianbing Chen. "Probability Density Evolution Method in Stochastic Dynamics." In Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-36197-5_333-1.

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Li, Jie, and Jianbing Chen. "Probability Density Evolution Method in Stochastic Dynamics." In Encyclopedia of Earthquake Engineering. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-35344-4_333.

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Tyuleneva, S. G., and S. L. Yunga. "Dispersion and Probability Density Function for Focal Mechanism Tensors." In Earthquake Hazard and Risk. Springer Netherlands, 1996. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-0243-5_7.

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Franchin, Paolo, and Paolo Emilio Pinto. "Direct Probability-Based Seismic Design of RC Buildings." In Advances in Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering. Springer Netherlands, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8746-1_22.

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De Masi, Anna. "Spin Systems with Long Range Interactions." In From Classical to Modern Probability. Birkhäuser Basel, 2003. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-0348-8053-4_2.

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Peçi, V. "The Probability of the Time Occurrence of Strong Earthquake for Some Zones in Albania." In Earthquake Hazard and Risk. Springer Netherlands, 1996. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-0243-5_2.

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Choi, Edwin, and Peter Hall. "Nonparametric analysis of earthquake point-process data." In State of the art in probability and statistics. Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/lnms/1215090076.

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Schwan, Logan, Claude Boutin, Matthew Dietz, et al. "Multi-Building Interactions and Site-City Effect: An Idealized Experimental Model." In Experimental Research in Earthquake Engineering. Springer International Publishing, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-10136-1_28.

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Conference papers on the topic "Earthquake interactions and probability"

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Jiao, Zhonghu, and Xinjian Shan. "Estimation of Earthquake Forecasting Probability Based on Satellite Thermal Anomalies." In IGARSS 2024 - 2024 IEEE International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium. IEEE, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/igarss53475.2024.10642022.

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Moroni, Niccolò, Mattia Francioli, Alessandro Guarnieri, and Francesco Petrini. "Multi-Hazard Analysis of Steel Buildings Subjected to Earthquake and Fire." In The 12th International Conference on Fracture Fatigue and Wear. Trans Tech Publications Ltd, 2025. https://doi.org/10.4028/p-cui85q.

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Fire produces unique effects on steel structures which can compromise the residual capacity and therefore the structural response if they impact jointly with other natural hazards, such as earthquakes. This work presents a procedure that allows for the extension of the analysis method introduced in the 1990s by Fajfar and Gaspersic and outlined in EC8 (referred to as the N2 method) for the case of Multi-Hazard (MH) analysis, specifically for hazard-chain scenarios involving earthquake and fire. The goal is to assess the structural performance at the end of the sequence of considered events. By appropriately modeling the structure considering elasto-plastic behaviour, it becomes possible to observe the structural response as the plasticization of structural elements progresses: in this context, accounting for material and geometric nonlinearities has proven essential, since the material and structure's behaviour under fire are governed by complex phenomena, due to the significant deformations and distortions involved. The hazard-chain scenario here discussed is characterised by the consecutiveness of main earthquake event and fire; the proposed procedure is then applied to a 2D steel structure. Results highlight that neglecting possible hazard interactions could lead to an erroneous evaluation of the residual structural capacity.
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Al-Amina, Md Sohel Rana, Rana Md Masuda, Das Sumon Chandra, and Al Amin Sarder. "A Simplified Approach to Accessing Earthquake-Induced Debris from Collapse of RC Frame Structures." In IABSE Congress, San José 2024: Beyond Structural Engineering in a Changing World. International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering (IABSE), 2024. https://doi.org/10.2749/sanjose.2024.0283.

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&lt;p&gt;It is widely acknowledged that earthquakes can cause significant destruction to buildings, and there is typically a large amount of debris that may impede transportation and delay the arrival of assistance if the collapsed buildings were linked to road networks. This study evaluates the debris extent from the collapse of intermediate RC frame structures through numerical simulations. Three Intermediate RC structures are selected to find the potential debris extent around the original envelope. Twenty-three ground motion records are applied to investigate the different collapse patterns of the structures. The results show that the building may face four types of collapse: positive and negative aligned and skewed. Furthermore, a relation between debris extent and probability of exceedance based on the median and variance values has been proposed. This study is of great importance to create an interdisciplinary approach to assessing the earthquake resilience of a street network.&lt;/p&gt;
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Jain, Swati, Francois Ayello, John A. Beavers, and Narasi Sridhar. "Probabilistic Model for Stress Corrosion Cracking of Underground Pipelines Using Bayesian Networks." In CORROSION 2013. NACE International, 2013. https://doi.org/10.5006/c2013-02616.

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Abstract Stress corrosion cracking (SCC) continues to be a safety concern, mainly because it can remain undetected before a major pipeline failure occurs. SCC processes involve complex interactions between metallurgy, stress, external soil environment, and electrolyte chemistry beneath disbonded coatings. For these reasons, assessing SCC failure probability at any given location on a pipeline is difficult. In addition, the uncertainty in data makes the prediction of SCC challenging. The complex interactions that affect SCC failure probability can be modeled using Bayesian network models. The Bayesian network models link events by cause-consequence connections. The strengths of these connections are adjusted using expert knowledge, analytical models, and data from the field. An approach to predicting probability of High pH SCC failure using Bayesian networks was proposed in a previous publication.1 The previous paper discussed the effects of stress only. In this paper, the previously discussed model is extended to the evaluation of other factors that affect high pH SCC. The model can be used to assess the probability of failure due to SCC at different times for different pipeline segments.
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Gu, Xianglin, Yaoyao Zhang, and Qianqian Yu. "Concurrent Probability of Earthquake and Hurricane." In IABSE Congress, New York, New York 2019: The Evolving Metropolis. International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering (IABSE), 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.2749/newyork.2019.2248.

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&lt;p&gt;Infrastructures are inevitably affected by multiple hazards during their service lives. Extreme loads, although occurring in a low frequency, may lead to catastrophic accidents and significant socioeconomic losses. Currently, research work on multi-hazards can be categorized into three groups: (1) joint hazards analysis, (2) physical vulnerability of a structure, and (3) damage analysis of a structure. However, the risk analysis of a structure is usually conducted to assume that the effect of multiple hazards on the structure is the superposition of effects caused by different kinds of hazards, and the interaction of hazards on structural effects is not considered. This paper proposed a theoretical evaluation method for concurrent probability of earthquake and hurricane, which is the basis for multi-hazard analysis of structures. The theoretical solution was validated to be reasonable by the numerical results from Monte Carlo method.&lt;/p&gt;
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Narita, Kenji, Munemasa Tokunaga, Keiichi Goto, and Kimitoshi Sakai. "Derailment probability of whole railway lines during an earthquake, considering the structure types of bridge, embankment and tunnel." In IABSE Congress, Christchurch 2021: Resilient technologies for sustainable infrastructure. International Association for Bridge and Structural Engineering (IABSE), 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2749/christchurch.2021.1126.

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&lt;p&gt;The derailment probability of trains on embankments and in tunnels is important for the evaluation of derailment fragility throughout the whole railway line during earthquakes. This study aimed to predict the number of trains expected to derail on a whole line during an earthquake. Nonlinear vehicle–structure interaction analyses revealed that the probability of derailment exceeded 50% when the ground acceleration was approximately 370 Gal on bridges, 900 Gal on embankments, and 1200 Gal in tunnels. The expected number of derailments was approximately 1–8 trains in the case of L2 spectrum I, considering the probability of derailment occurrence for each structure type.&lt;/p&gt;
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Yang, Jianfeng, Handing Wang, Xiaoming Zhang, Bingchen Feng, Weijin Wang, and Zhao Wang. "Seismic Risk Analysis of the 380VAC Emergency Electrical Power Distribution Cabinets of a Nuclear Power Plant in China." In 2017 25th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/icone25-66548.

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According to the research of the operating principle, installation position and running environment of the 380VAC emergency electrical power distribution cabinets (Hereinafter referred to as electrical cabinets) of a nuclear power plant in China, there are three aspects caused by earthquake that seriously affect the safety of the electrical cabinets, including relay chatter, failure of electrical cabinet structure and spatial interactions. Relay chatter refers to contacts of the relay being changed during the period of strong shaking. It may lead to associated circuits malfunction and the equipment failure of the relay control unless it can be effectively reset. The purpose of relay chatter is to find out these relays whose consequences are unacceptable after earthquake and calculate failure probability. Failure of electrical cabinet structure in the earthquake is to carry out seismic fragility evaluation. The goal of seismic fragility evaluation is to assess a given value which describes the ground acceleration capacity and the corresponding uncertainties, and then, the conditional probability of failure as a function of peak ground acceleration [PGA] and a family of fragility curves can be obtained. In this paper, finite element model of the electrical cabinet is established using ANSYS Workbench software. According to the electric cabinets seismic failure mode, we take some of the parameters including the parameters of the floor response spectrum, material strength parameters and so on as the input to calculate the median ground acceleration capacity and the corresponding uncertain parameters. The seismic spatial interactions are defined as the electrical cabinet destroyed due to the surrounding objects failure by falling, collapse, etc. Therefore, if necessary, it is needed to evaluate the seismic fragility of the surrounding objects. Usually through walking down, checking the design drawings or the combination of the above methods, we can find out the surrounding objects for an electric cabinet. So we analyze the seismic risk of the electrical cabinet from the above three aspects. When the results of the above three aspects obtained, we convolute of the electrical cabinet fragility with the seismic hazard curve which represents the frequency of occurrence of earthquake motions at various levels of intensity at the site. Then Monte Carlo sampling is adopted to analyze the uncertainty distribution. In this article, Risk Spectrum Professional software (reference 8) and Risk Spectrum Hazard lite software (reference 9) are used to complete the calculation and get some quantitative seismic risk insights. The above seismic risk insights can support the establishment of seismic probabilistic safety analysis model (Hereinafter referred to as SPSA) for a nuclear power plant, which helps to formulate seismic improvement strategies.
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Nath, U., and S. Haldar. "Seismic Fragility Analysis of Jacket Supported Offshore Wind Turbine Considering Ground Motion Directionality." In Innovative Geotechnologies for Energy Transition. Society for Underwater Technology, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.3723/eglk6812.

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Offshore wind turbines (OWT) being developed in seismically active regions imparts the necessity of understanding the risk caused by earthquake. Seismic fragility analysis considers the probability of damage over a range of hazard intensities due to earthquake loads and provides a measure of safety of the wind turbines. Knowing the importance of the seismic risk assessment of the OWTs, this study attempts to conduct the seismic fragility analysis for a 10 MW jacket supported offshore wind turbine considering the ground motion directionality. Three-dimensional numerical modelling of jacket, pile, and tower is developed in SAP2000 using non-linear beam elements. The soil-pile interaction is modelled by using American Petroleum Institute (API) based p-y springs. Incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) is performed to develop the fragility curves for various angles of seismic incidence under different limit state of critical responses of OWTs based on codified provisions. The fragility curves developed for jacket supported OWT provide significant insight into the importance of considering ground motion directionality and also provide a step for measuring the seismic performance to ensure safety and reliability.
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Crawford, Anthony L., Robert E. Spears, and Mark J. Russell. "Eliminating Conservatism in the Piping System Analysis Process Through Application of a Suite of Locally Appropriate Seismic Input Motions." In ASME 2009 Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference. ASMEDC, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/pvp2009-77814.

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Seismic analysis is of great importance in the evaluation of nuclear systems due to the heavy influence such loading has on their designs. Current Department of Energy seismic analysis techniques for a nuclear safety-related piping system typically involve application of a single conservative seismic input applied to the entire system [1]. A significant portion of this conservatism comes from the need to address the overlapping uncertainties in the seismic input and in the building response that transmits that input motion to the piping system. The approach presented in this paper addresses these two sources of uncertainty through the application of a suite of 32 earthquake realizations with equal probability of occurrence whose collective performance addresses the total uncertainty while each individual motion represents a single variation of it. It represents an extension of the soil-structure interaction analysis methodology of SEI/ASCE 43-05 [2] from the structure to individual piping components. Because this approach is computationally intensive, automation and other measures have been developed to make such an analysis efficient. These measures are detailed in this paper.
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Nakaki, David K., Philip S. Hashimoto, James J. Johnson, Yahya Bayraktarli, and Olivier Zuchuat. "Probabilistic Seismic Soil Structure Interaction Analysis of the Mu¨hleberg Nuclear Power Plant Reactor and SUSAN Buildings." In ASME 2010 Pressure Vessels and Piping Division/K-PVP Conference. ASMEDC, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/pvp2010-25343.

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Probabilistic seismic soil-structure interaction (SSI) analysis was performed for the Mu¨hleberg Nuclear Power Plant Reactor and SUSAN Buildings in support of the seismic probabilistic saftety assessment of the plant. An efficient hybrid method, employing computer programs SASSI2000 and CLASSI presented in a companion paper, was used in this analysis. The method takes advantage of the capability of SASSI2000 to analyze embedded structures with irregular geometry and the computational efficiency of CLASSI to rapidly perform the SSI response analysis of large structure models. Fixed base finite element models of the buildings were first developed from which the structure geometry, nodal masses, natural frequencies, and mode shapes were extracted. The structure embedments were modeled using SASSI2000. Impedance functions and scattering vectors were calculated by imposing rigid body constraints to the embedded foundation. The fixed base structure dynamic properties and the foundation impedances and scattering functions were input to CLASSI to perform the response analysis. The probabilistic analysis was performed following the Latin Hypercube Simulation (LHS) approach documented in NUREG/CR-2015. Variables defined by probability distributions were sampled according to a stratified sampling approach. The combination of the parameters for each simulation was determined by Latin Hypercube experimental design. Variables in the LHS included the earthquake ground acceleration time histories, structure stiffness and damping, and soil stiffness and damping. Thirty response simulations were performed using CLASSI in which the variable values were randomly selected. The use of CLASSI has the advantage that the response analysis simulations can be executed in a fraction of the time that would be required with SASSI2000 alone. For each simulation, in-structure response spectra (ISRS) were calculated at selected locations in the buildings. Probabilistic distributions, described by the median and 84th percentile response spectra, were calculated from the thirty simulations. The probabilistic ISRS are subsequently used in the seismic fragility evaluations of selected essential equipment.
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Reports on the topic "Earthquake interactions and probability"

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Onur, T., C. E. Ventura, and W. D. L. Finn. Effect of earthquake probability level on loss estimations. Natural Resources Canada/ESS/Scientific and Technical Publishing Services, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.4095/215330.

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Zydlewski, Gayle Barbin, Garrett Staines, Haley Viehman, Haixue Shen, and Megan Altenritter. Interactions of aquatic animals with the ORPC OCGen® in Cobscook Bay, Maine: Monitoring behavior change and assessing the probability of encounter with a deployed MHK device. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1332311.

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Llopis, Jimena, José Juan Ruiz, Umberto Muratori, and Alejandro Izquierdo. In Search of Larger Per Capita Incomes: How To Prioritize across Productivity Determinants? Inter-American Development Bank, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0011725.

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This study is a first contribution to prioritization across productivity determinant capabilities that attempts to obtain the equivalent of a "shadow price" for each of these capabilities by estimating their impact on the success a country may have in reaching higher income per capita groups. The prioritization of these determinants-spanning different sectors-seems to be specific to the income per capita group to which a country belongs. Moreover, empirical estimates reveal that interactions among sectors matter for increasing the probability of climbing up the income-per-capita ladder, reflecting the existence of complementarities across sectors, thus indicating that the joint improvement of some of them may be necessary before effects are noticeable. Results also indicate that the identification of priorities by looking at the impact that sectors have on increasing the likelihood of advancing to a better income per capita group may or may not coincide with the size of sector gaps typically used for the determination of priorities, as larger gaps do not necessarily capture the relevance of sectoral restrictions and their interactions.
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Lopez Ruiz, Maria Camila, Micaela Largent, Tracy Becker, and Jennie Watson-Lamprey. Correlation of Ground Motion Duration with Spectral Acceleration and Implications for Expected Bridge Performance. Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.55461/pjpa6337.

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Construction or detailed evaluation of transportation infrastructure requires site-specific ground motions for input into nonlinear structural models. These site-specific ground motions are generally selected based on the magnitude, distance, and site condition of the recorded ground motion. A preliminary study performed by Slate Geotechnical Consultants found that duration and spectral acceleration are negatively correlated for large-magnitude earthquakes recorded on soft-soil sites (Vs30&lt;360 m/s). This means that if the target spectral acceleration is above average, then the average duration associated with that ground motion should be below average for the scenario magnitude and distance. This ground motion duration correlation implies that the current state of the practice is overestimating the probability of collapse for structures. This project aims to improve the characterization of ground motion duration and evaluate how the improved characterization affects bridge fragilities used in the Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE) framework. Numerical models for two prototype structures, a major toll bridge and a typical highway overpass, are developed using OpenSees. Using these models, the effect of ground motion duration is evaluated quantitatively following the PEER PBEE methodology.
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Wilson, D., Chris Pettit, Vladimir Ostashev, and Matthew Kamrath. Signal power distributions for simulated outdoor sound propagation in varying refractive conditions. Engineer Research and Development Center (U.S.), 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.21079/11681/48774.

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Probability distributions of acoustic signals propagating through the near-ground atmosphere are simulated by the parabolic equation method. The simulations involve propagation at four angles relative to the mean wind, with frequencies of 100, 200, 400, and 800 Hz. The environmental representation includes realistic atmospheric refractive profiles, turbulence, and ground interactions; cases are considered with and without parametric uncertainties in the wind velocity and surface heat flux. The simulated signals are found to span a broad range of scintillation indices, from near zero to exceeding ten. In the absence of uncertainties, the signal power (or intensity) is fit well by a two-parameter gamma distribution, regardless of the frequency and refractive conditions. When the uncertainties are included, three-parameter distributions, namely, the compound gamma or generalized gamma, are needed for a good fit to the simulation data. The compound gamma distribution appears preferable because its parameters have a straight forward interpretation related to the saturation and modulation of the signal by uncertainties.
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Steudlein, Armin, Besrat Alemu, T. Matthew Evans, et al. PEER Workshop on Liquefaction Susceptibility. Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.55461/bpsk6314.

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Seismic ground failure potential from liquefaction is generally undertaken in three steps. First, a susceptibility evaluation determines if the soil in a particular layer is in a condition where liquefaction triggering could potentially occur. This is followed by a triggering evaluation to estimate the likelihood of triggering given anticipated seismic demands, environmental conditions pertaining to the soil layer (e.g., its depth relative to the ground water table), and the soil state. For soils where triggering can be anticipated, the final step involves assessments of the potential for ground failure and its impact on infrastructure systems. This workshop was dedicated to the first of these steps, which often plays a critical role in delineating risk for soil deposits with high fines contents and clay-silt-sand mixtures of negligible to moderate plasticity. The workshop was hosted at Oregon State University on September 8-9, 2022 and was attended by 49 participants from the research, practice, and regulatory communities. Through pre-workshop polls, extended abstracts, workshop presentations, and workshop breakout discussions, it was demonstrated that leaders in the liquefaction community do not share a common understanding of the term “susceptibility” as applied to liquefaction problems. The primary distinction between alternate views concerns whether environmental conditions and soil state provide relevant information for a susceptibility evaluation, or if susceptibility is a material characteristic. For example, a clean, dry, dense sand in a region of low seismicity is very unlikely to experience triggering of liquefaction and would be considered not susceptible by adherents of a definition that considers environmental conditions and state. The alternative, and recommended, definition focusing on material susceptibility would consider the material as susceptible and would defer consideration of saturation, state, and loading effects to a separate triggering analysis. This material susceptibility definition has the advantage of maintaining a high degree of independence between the parameters considered in the susceptibility and triggering phases of the ground failure analysis. There exist differences between current methods for assessing material susceptibility – the databases include varying amount of test data, the materials considered are distinct (from different regions) and have been tested using different procedures, and the models can be interpreted as providingdifferent outcomes in some cases. The workshop reached a clear consensus that new procedures are needed that are developed using a new research approach. The recommended approach involves assembling a database of information from sites for which in situ test data are available (borings with samples, CPTs), cyclic test data are available from high-quality specimens, and a range of index tests are available for important layers. It is not necessary that the sites have experienced earthquake shaking for which field performance is known, although such information is of interest where available. A considerable amount of data of this type are available from prior research studies and detailed geotechnical investigations for project sites by leading geotechnical consultants. Once assembled and made available, this data would allow for the development of models to predict the probability of material susceptibility given various independent variables (e.g., in-situ tests indices, laboratory index parameters) and the epistemic uncertainty of the predictions. Such studies should be conducted in an open, transparent manner utilizing a shared database, which is a hallmark of the Next Generation Liquefaction (NGL) project.
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Bray, Jonathan, Ross Boulanger, Misko Cubrinovski, et al. U.S.—New Zealand— Japan International Workshop, Liquefaction-Induced Ground Movement Effects, University of California, Berkeley, California, 2-4 November 2016. Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.55461/gzzx9906.

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There is much to learn from the recent New Zealand and Japan earthquakes. These earthquakes produced differing levels of liquefaction-induced ground movements that damaged buildings, bridges, and buried utilities. Along with the often spectacular observations of infrastructure damage, there were many cases where well-built facilities located in areas of liquefaction-induced ground failure were not damaged. Researchers are working on characterizing and learning from these observations of both poor and good performance. The “Liquefaction-Induced Ground Movements Effects” workshop provided an opportunity to take advantage of recent research investments following these earthquake events to develop a path forward for an integrated understanding of how infrastructure performs with various levels of liquefaction. Fifty-five researchers in the field, two-thirds from the U.S. and one-third from New Zealand and Japan, convened in Berkeley, California, in November 2016. The objective of the workshop was to identify research thrusts offering the greatest potential for advancing our capabilities for understanding, evaluating, and mitigating the effects of liquefaction-induced ground movements on structures and lifelines. The workshop also advanced the development of younger researchers by identifying promising research opportunities and approaches, and promoting future collaborations among participants. During the workshop, participants identified five cross-cutting research priorities that need to be addressed to advance our scientific understanding of and engineering procedures for soil liquefaction effects during earthquakes. Accordingly, this report was organized to address five research themes: (1) case history data; (2) integrated site characterization; (3) numerical analysis; (4) challenging soils; and (5) effects and mitigation of liquefaction in the built environment and communities. These research themes provide an integrated approach toward transformative advances in addressing liquefaction hazards worldwide. The archival documentation of liquefaction case history datasets in electronic data repositories for use by the broader research community is critical to accelerating advances in liquefaction research. Many of the available liquefaction case history datasets are not fully documented, published, or shared. Developing and sharing well-documented liquefaction datasets reflect significant research efforts. Therefore, datasets should be published with a permanent DOI, with appropriate citation language for proper acknowledgment in publications that use the data. Integrated site characterization procedures that incorporate qualitative geologic information about the soil deposits at a site and the quantitative information from in situ and laboratory engineering tests of these soils are essential for quantifying and minimizing the uncertainties associated site characterization. Such information is vitally important to help identify potential failure modes and guide in situ testing. At the site scale, one potential way to do this is to use proxies for depositional environments. At the fabric and microstructure scale, the use of multiple in situ tests that induce different levels of strain should be used to characterize soil properties. The development of new in situ testing tools and methods that are more sensitive to soil fabric and microstructure should be continued. The development of robust, validated analytical procedures for evaluating the effects of liquefaction on civil infrastructure persists as a critical research topic. Robust validated analytical procedures would translate into more reliable evaluations of critical civil infrastructure iv performance, support the development of mechanics-based, practice-oriented engineering models, help eliminate suspected biases in our current engineering practices, and facilitate greater integration with structural, hydraulic, and wind engineering analysis capabilities for addressing multi-hazard problems. Effective collaboration across countries and disciplines is essential for developing analytical procedures that are robust across the full spectrum of geologic, infrastructure, and natural hazard loading conditions encountered in practice There are soils that are challenging to characterize, to model, and to evaluate, because their responses differ significantly from those of clean sands: they cannot be sampled and tested effectively using existing procedures, their properties cannot be estimated confidently using existing in situ testing methods, or constitutive models to describe their responses have not yet been developed or validated. Challenging soils include but are not limited to: interbedded soil deposits, intermediate (silty) soils, mine tailings, gravelly soils, crushable soils, aged soils, and cemented soils. New field and laboratory test procedures are required to characterize the responses of these materials to earthquake loadings, physical experiments are required to explore mechanisms, and new soil constitutive models tailored to describe the behavior of such soils are required. Well-documented case histories involving challenging soils where both the poor and good performance of engineered systems are documented are also of high priority. Characterizing and mitigating the effects of liquefaction on the built environment requires understanding its components and interactions as a system, including residential housing, commercial and industrial buildings, public buildings and facilities, and spatially distributed infrastructure, such as electric power, gas and liquid fuel, telecommunication, transportation, water supply, wastewater conveyance/treatment, and flood protection systems. Research to improve the characterization and mitigation of liquefaction effects on the built environment is essential for achieving resiliency. For example, the complex mechanisms of ground deformation caused by liquefaction and building response need to be clarified and the potential bias and dispersion in practice-oriented procedures for quantifying building response to liquefaction need to be quantified. Component-focused and system-performance research on lifeline response to liquefaction is required. Research on component behavior can be advanced by numerical simulations in combination with centrifuge and large-scale soil–structure interaction testing. System response requires advanced network analysis that accounts for the propagation of uncertainty in assessing the effects of liquefaction on large, geographically distributed systems. Lastly, research on liquefaction mitigation strategies, including aspects of ground improvement, structural modification, system health monitoring, and rapid recovery planning, is needed to identify the most effective, cost-efficient, and sustainable measures to improve the response and resiliency of the built environment.
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SEISMIC FRAGILITY ANALYSIS OF STEEL FRAMES WITH FULLY-BOLTED CORE TUBE JOINTS. The Hong Kong Institute of Steel Construction, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.18057/ijasc.2024.20.3.1.

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In this paper, the joint parameters derived from testing the new fully-bolted core tube beam-column joint were utilized in the finite element analysis of the complete frame structure. The static elastic-plastic time-history analysis of 8, 12, 16, and 20-story steel frames with the braces was carried out. By comparing the maximum inter-layer displacement angles in the X and Y directions when the frame yielded, the rationality of the brace arrangement and the applicability of the new fully-bolted core tube beam-column joints in the multi-story and high-rise steel frames were confirmed. After dividing the range of damage values for the steel frame with the new fully-bolted core tube beam-column joint, the seismic fragility and collapse resistance of the steel frame with the new fully-bolted core tube beam-column joint of different stories were analyzed. The results show that it is important to note that when the number of stories is low, the probability of each stage of the structure being exceeded is high. However, as the number of stories increases, the impact on the probability of the structure being exceeded gradually decreases. Under the action of a large earthquake peak acceleration, the exceedance probability based on a two-parameter damage index is higher than that based on a single-parameter damage index. This indicates that during the large deformation stage of the structure, the influence of cumulative damage on the evaluation of structural performance cannot be ignored. The steel frame of multi-story and high-rise buildings with new joints may be in a serious damage stage under rare earthquakes, and it is possible to collapse under the action of great earthquakes. In addition, the ACMR value of the structure under the action of rare earthquakes meets the evaluation criteria, while the ACMR value under the action of great earthquakes does not meet the requirements. Therefore, in practical engineering, it is necessary to take seismic strengthening measures to ensure that the structure has sufficient safety reserves against collapse during earthquakes.
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