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Journal articles on the topic 'Earthquake interactions and probability'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 10 March 2023

Last updated: 19 July 2025

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1

Jones, Lucile M. "Foreshocks, aftershocks, and earthquake probabilities: Accounting for the landers earthquake." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 84, no. 3 (1994): 892–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/bssa0840030892.

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Abstract The equation to determine the probability that an earthquake occurring near a major fault will be a foreshock to a mainshock on that fault is modified to include the case of aftershocks to a previous earthquake occurring near the fault. The addition of aftershocks to the background seismicity makes its less probable that an earthquake will be a foreshock, because nonforeshocks have become more common. As the aftershocks decay with time, the probability that an earthquake will be a foreshock increases. However, fault interactions between the first mainshock and the major fault can incr

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2

Tao, Zheng Ru, Xia Xin Tao, and Wei Jiang. "A Review on Long-Term Evaluation of Occurrence Probability for Subduction-Zone Earthquakes in Eastern Japan." Applied Mechanics and Materials 166-169 (May 2012): 2190–96. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.166-169.2190.

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Evaluation approach of occurrence probability for subduction-zone earthquakes adopted in “National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan” is reviewed, especially for the area of the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake (2011 Tohoku Earthquake in short). One problem is pointed that the occurrence probability of such a large earthquake cannot be predicted just from seismicity in a region small like Miyagi-ken-Oki area or southern Sanriku-Oki. The whole subduction zone in eastern Japan is suggested to be taken into account with the interaction between the energy released in quakes. Finally, a

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3

Dan Tian, Dan Tian, Yong-Jie Xu Dan Tian, Tong-Lei Qu Yong-Jie Xu, Rong-Guang Jia Tong-Lei Qu, Hao Zhang Rong-Guang Jia, and Wen-Jie Song Hao Zhang. "A Bayesian Network Model for Rough Estimations of Casualties by Strong Earthquakes in Emergency Mode." 電腦學刊 33, no. 6 (2022): 083–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.53106/199115992022123306007.

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<p>Rough estimations in emergency mode are now playing an important role in making key decisions for managing disasters including search and rescue. Most of the studies only paid attention to the earthquakes and ignored the presence of disaster chains and the hazard interactions in earthquakes. Bayesian Networks are ideal tools to explore the causal relationships between events, combine prior knowledge and observed data, and are integrated to solve uncertain problems. In such situations, we present improvements based on a Bayesian Network Model in approaches to estimations of casualties

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4

Liu, Gang, Qinjin Fan, Weile Li, et al. "Spatio-temporal network modelling and analysis of global strong earthquakes (Mw ≥ 6.0)." Journal of the Geological Society 177, no. 5 (2020): 883–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1144/jgs2019-151.

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We employ a spatio-temporal network modelling approach to identify possible relations between strong earthquakes and spatial regions worldwide. A global strong earthquake dataset containing 7736 events (Mw ≥ 6.0) from 1964 to 2018 is used. Statistical results identify power-law relationships and heavy tail phenomena in the spatial patterns of strong earthquakes. The interactions between regions follow the same law, with a few regions that may be hit by successive strong earthquakes with high probability. Also, we find that the interconnections between regions are mainly related to the successi

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5

Mangira, O., E. Papadimitriou, G. Tsaklidis, and G. Vasiliadis. "SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT FOR THE CORINTH GULF AND CENTRAL IONIAN ISLANDS BY MEANS OF THE LINKED STRESS RELEASE MODEL." Bulletin of the Geological Society of Greece 50, no. 3 (2017): 1369. http://dx.doi.org/10.12681/bgsg.11850.

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Εarthquake generation causes spatio-temporal stress changes on adjacent fault segments that can alter the occurrence probability of subsequent earthquakes onto them. The interaction is investigated with the Linked Stress Release Model, applied to fit historical data from two areas that accommodate high seismicity, the Corinth Gulf and the Central Ionian Islands. These two areas are divided in two subareas, based on seismotectonic features; Corinth Gulf is divided in the western and eastern part, whereas the area of Central Ionian Islands is divided in Kefalonia and Lefkada subareas. The result

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Chen, Yuxuan, Mian Liu, and Gang Luo. "Complex Temporal Patterns of Large Earthquakes: Devil’s Staircases." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 110, no. 3 (2020): 1064–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120190148.

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ABSTRACT Periodic or quasiperiodic earthquake recurrence on individual faults, as predicted by the elastic rebound model, is not common in nature. Instead, most earthquake sequences are complex and variable, and often show clusters of events separated by long but irregular intervals of quiescence. Such temporal patterns are especially common for large earthquakes in complex fault zones or regional and global fault networks. Mathematically described as the Devil’s Staircase, such temporal patterns are a fractal property of nonlinear complex systems, in which a change of any part (e.g., rupture

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Muksin, Zainal, Abdur Rahim, Suradika, et al. "Assessing Megathrust Earthquake Probability, Public Stress, and Government Policy Recommendations in the Mentawai-Siberut Region, Indonesia." Journal of Environmental & Earth Sciences 7, no. 3 (2025): 20–33. https://doi.org/10.30564/jees.v7i3.8135.

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This study aims to assess seismic hazards and develop effective mitigation strategies for the Mentawai-Siberut region in Indonesia. The research uses quantitative and qualitative methods to analyze historical seismic data, predictive models, and stakeholder perspectives. The quantitative analysis includes seismic hazard estimation using the Gutenberg-Richter formula, ground movement analysis based on GMPE, and time interval calculations to forecast future earthquakes. Qualitative methods involve Policy Network Theory to explore the roles and interactions of various stakeholders in disaster man

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8

Hamdin, Ayad O., and Mohammad M. F. Hussein. "An application of Wavelet Markov Chains Model to Study Earthquake Occurrence." Tikrit Journal of Administrative and Economic Sciences 19, no. 61, 2 (2023): 334–53. http://dx.doi.org/10.25130/tjaes.19.61.2.18.

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The Arabian Plate, which is colliding with the Iranian (Eurasian) Plate, is where Iraq is located in the northeastern corner. An active Zagros seismic belt is formed by active seismicity at the interaction between the two plates. The research aims study the transition probability between the states of earthquake occurrence and estimate earthquake risk states. Use wavelet Markov chain model which is modern probability theory studies random processes for which the knowledge of previous outcomes influences predictions for future experiments. The data obtained from the Earth Scope website during t

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9

Jena, Ratiranjan, Abdallah Shanableh, Rami Al-Ruzouq, et al. "An Integration of Deep Learning and Transfer Learning for Earthquake-Risk Assessment in the Eurasian Region." Remote Sensing 15, no. 15 (2023): 3759. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs15153759.

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The problem of estimating earthquake risk is one of the primary themes for researchers and investigators in the field of geosciences. The combined assessment of spatial probability and the determination of earthquake risk at large scales is challenging. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, there no updated earthquake-hazard-and-risk assessments for the Eurasia region have been published since 1999. Considering that Eurasia is characterized by a seismically active Alpine–Himalayan fault zone and the Pacific Ring of Fire, which are frequently affected by devastating events, a continental-scale

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10

Altun, Gokcen. "Log-Linear Model Analysis of Aftershock Sequences: A Review on the 6 February Earthquakes in Turkey." Cumhuriyet Science Journal 45, no. 2 (2024): 437–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.17776/csj.1387861.

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Researchers have conducted numerous studies on earthquakes and aftershocks, some of which have utilized statistical analysis methods. However, there is no direct research examining the interaction between variables thought to influence aftershocks following major earthquakes. In this study, 2194 aftershocks with a magnitude of 3 or higher that occurred after two major earthquakes in Turkey on February 6, 2023 were analyzed using log-linear models with respect to variables such as depth, magnitude, time, and city. At the end of the study, all four primary variables - city, magnitude, depth, and

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11

Liu, Zhang Jun, Xing Fang, Yong Wan, and Yan Fu Xing. "Probability Density Evolution Method for Stochastic Earthquake Response and Reliability Analysis of Large-Scale Aqueduct Structures." Applied Mechanics and Materials 193-194 (August 2012): 1230–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.193-194.1230.

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The probability density evolution method (PDEM) has been used to research the stochastic earthquake response and reliability analysis of large-scale aqueducts structures, with the changeable water level in tub and under the condition of the interaction between water and boundary of the tub. The results show that，the probability distribution of stochastic seismic responses about aqueduct structure is rules distribution, the response and failure probability of large-scale aqueduct structures under the stochastic earthquake are increased as the rising of water level, however, with the water level

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12

Kar, Saurav Shekhar, Anupama Arunkumar Athawale, Mani Bhushan, and Lal Bahadur Roy. "Dynamic Soil-Structure Interaction of Multi-Story Buildings using the Finite Element Method and Minimax Probability Machine Regression." Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research 13, no. 4 (2023): 11170–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.48084/etasr.5870.

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Soil-Structure Interaction (SSI) issues are some of the most critical problems encountered in the design of structures prone to earthquake shaking. The damage caused by an earthquake mainly depends on the interaction between soil and structure. In this study, the effect of dynamic SSI on a multi-story building is examined using two methods, Finite Element Method (FEM) and Minimax Probability Machine Regression (MPMR). The MPMR was used to develop a model based on the input and output database generated from the FEM model. The performance comparison of these two models shows a good correlation.

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13

Toda, Shinji, and Ross S. Stein. "Long- and Short-Term Stress Interaction of the 2019 Ridgecrest Sequence and Coulomb-Based Earthquake Forecasts." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 110, no. 4 (2020): 1765–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120200169.

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Abstract We first explore a series of retrospective earthquake interactions in southern California. We find that the four Mw≥7 shocks in the past 150 yr brought the Ridgecrest fault ∼1 bar closer to failure. Examining the 34 hr time span between the Mw 6.4 and Mw 7.1 events, we calculate that the Mw 6.4 event brought the hypocentral region of the Mw 7.1 earthquake 0.7 bars closer to failure, with the Mw 7.1 event relieving most of the surrounding stress that was imparted by the first. We also find that the Mw 6.4 cross-fault aftershocks shut down when they fell under the stress shadow of the M

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14

Yang, Haibin, Mark Quigley, and Tamarah King. "Surface slip distributions and geometric complexity of intraplate reverse-faulting earthquakes." GSA Bulletin 133, no. 9-10 (2021): 1909–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/b35809.1.

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Abstract Earthquake ground surface ruptures provide insights into faulting mechanics and inform seismic hazard analyses. We analyze surface ruptures for 11 historical (1968–2018) moment magnitude (Mw) 4.7–6.6 reverse earthquakes in Australia using statistical techniques and compare their characteristics with magnetic, gravity, and stress trajectory data sets. Of the total combined (summative) length of all surface ruptures (∼148 km), 133 km (90%) to 145 km (98%) align with the geophysical structure in the host basement rocks. Surface rupture length (SRL), maximum displacement (MD), and probabi

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15

Ngo, Duc-Vu, Sang-Il Lee, and Dong-Hyawn Kim. "Seismic Fragility Analysis of Offshore Wind Turbines Considering Site-Specific Ground Responses." Sustainability 16, no. 23 (2024): 10575. https://doi.org/10.3390/su162310575.

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This study investigated the seismic performance and assessed the seismic fragility of an existing pentapod suction-bucket-supported offshore wind turbine, focusing on the amplification of earthquake ground motions. A simplified suction bucket–soil interaction model with nonlinear spring elements was employed within a finite element framework, linking the suction bucket and soil to hypothetical points on the OWT structures at the mudline. Unlike conventional approaches using bedrock earthquake records, this study utilized free-field surface motions as input, derived from bedrock ground motions

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16

Zhou, Ai Hong, Ying Yuan, and Bai Qing Xu. "The Stochastic Dynamic Reliability Research on Nonlinear Pile-Soil-Structure Interaction System with Uncertain Parameters." Advanced Materials Research 243-249 (May 2011): 5764–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.243-249.5764.

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According to the damage characteristics of pile-soil-structure interaction system subjected to the earthquake, the seismic design method of using the dual design guideline of strength and deformation and taking the same reliability for both pile foundation and superstructure was put forward. The stochastic dynamic reliability of pile-soil-structure interaction system with uncertain parameters was studied on the basis of the randomness of earthquake, the nonlinearity of soil material parameters, and especailly the variability of soil material parameters. The results show that the control indexe

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17

Fidani, Cristiano. "Transfer Entropy of West Pacific Earthquakes to Inner Van Allen Belt Electron Bursts." Entropy 24, no. 3 (2022): 359. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/e24030359.

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Lithosphere-ionosphere non-linear interactions create a complex system where links between different phenomena can remain hidden. The statistical correlation between West Pacific strong earthquakes and high-energy electron bursts escaping trapped conditions was demonstrated in past works. Here, it is investigated from the point of view of information. Starting from the conditional probability statistical model, which was deduced from the correlation, the Shannon entropy, the joint entropy, and the conditional entropy are calculated. Time-delayed mutual information and transfer entropy have als

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18

Gu, Quan. "Performance and Risk Assessment of Soil-Structure Interaction Systems Based on Finite Element Reliability Methods." Mathematical Problems in Engineering 2014 (2014): 1–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/704804.

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In the context of performance-based earthquake engineering, reliability method has been of significant importance in performance and risk assessment of structures or soil-structure interaction (SSI) systems. The finite element (FE) reliability method combines FE analysis with state-of-the-art methods in reliability analysis and has been employed increasingly to estimate the probability of occurrence of failure events corresponding to various hazard levels (e.g., earthquakes with various intensity). In this paper, crucial components for FE reliability analysis are reviewed and summarized. Furth

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19

Devni, Prima Sari, Rosadi Dedi, Ronnie Effendie Adhitya, and Danardono. "Discretization methods for Bayesian networks in the case of the earthquake." Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics 10, no. 1 (2021): 299–307. https://doi.org/10.11591/eei.v10i1.2007.

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The Bayesian networks are a graphical probability model that represents interactions between variables. This model has been widely applied in various fields, including in the case of disaster. In applying field data, we often find a mixture of variable types, which is a combination of continuous variables and discrete variables. For data processing using hybrid and continuous Bayesian networks, all continuous variables must be normally distributed. If normal conditions unsatisfied, we offer a solution, is to discretize continuous variables. Next, we can continue the process with the discrete B

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20

Sari, Devni Prima, Dedi Rosadi, Adhitya Ronnie Effendie, and Danardono Danardono. "Discretization methods for Bayesian networks in the case of the earthquake." Bulletin of Electrical Engineering and Informatics 10, no. 1 (2021): 299–307. http://dx.doi.org/10.11591/eei.v10i1.2007.

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The Bayesian networks are a graphical probability model that represents interactions between variables. This model has been widely applied in various fields, including in the case of disaster. In applying field data, we often find a mixture of variable types, which is a combination of continuous variables and discrete variables. For data processing using hybrid and continuous Bayesian networks, all continuous variables must be normally distributed. If normal conditions unsatisfied, we offer a solution, is to discretize continuous variables. Next, we can continue the process with the discrete B

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21

Duma, G., and Y. Ruzhin. "Diurnal changes of earthquake activity and geomagnetic Sq-variations." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 3, no. 3/4 (2003): 171–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-3-171-2003.

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Abstract. Statistic analyses demonstrate that the probability of earthquake occurrence in many earthquake regions strongly depends on the time of day, that is on Local Time (e.g. Conrad, 1909, 1932; Shimshoni, 1971; Duma, 1997; Duma and Vilardo, 1998). This also applies to strong earthquake activity. Moreover, recent observations reveal an involvement of the regular diurnal variations of the Earth’s magnetic field, commonly known as Sq-variations, in this geodynamic process of changing earthquake activity with the time of day (Duma, 1996, 1999). In the article it is attempted to quantify the f

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22

Yousefpour, Amir, Hamid Mazidababdi Farahani, and Mohsen Ali Shayanfar. "Seismic Performance Assessment of Ordinary Moment Resisting Frame Equipped with Viscous Dampers under Pulse-Like Earthquakes." Shock and Vibration 2022 (March 31, 2022): 1–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/2924836.

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In conventional structures, the earthquake-resistant design is based on flexibility after yielding of structural members to provide a loss of earthquake input energy, while, using dampers, the input energy loss can be concentrated in predetermined points to prevent the nonlinear behavior of the main members that are also in the gravity bearing path. However, near-fault earthquakes might cause unexpected failure and severe structural damage, especially those with the pulse-like effect. A pulsed movement in the near field records in this system will, however, result in unusual behavior. Technolo

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23

Li, Chunli, Guangming Yu, Liang Li, et al. "Reliability Analysis of Seismic Slope Incorporating Interactions among Multiple Sliding Blocks Using Imbalance Thrust Force Method in Primary Sliding Direction." Sustainability 15, no. 16 (2023): 12350. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su151612350.

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This paper proposes a methodology for reliability analysis of seismic slope stability that incorporates interactions among multiple sliding blocks. The primary sliding direction is first determined using the vector sum method and then the imbalance thrust force along the primary sliding direction is calculated using the slice-wise strategy and, finally, the double integration strategy is adopted to calculate the accumulated sliding displacement within the earthquake duration. The interactions among multiple sliding blocks are incorporated by checking the potential of occurrence for each of the

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Hossain, A. S. M. Fahad, Ali Saeidi, Mohammad Salsabili, Miroslav Nastev, Juliana Ruiz Suescun, and Zeinab Bayati. "A Review of Parameters and Methods for Seismic Site Response." Geosciences 15, no. 4 (2025): 128. https://doi.org/10.3390/geosciences15040128.

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Prediction of the intensity of earthquake-induced motions at the ground surface attracts extensive attention from the geoscience community due to the significant threat it poses to humans and the built environment. Several factors are involved, including earthquake magnitude, epicentral distance, and local soil conditions. The local site effects, such as resonance amplification, topographic focusing, and basin-edge interactions, can significantly influence the amplitude–frequency content and duration of the incoming seismic waves. They are commonly predicted using site effect proxies or applyi

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Singh, NP R., and Hemant Vinayak. "Seismic bridge pier analysis for pile foundation by force and displacement based approaches." Facta universitatis - series: Architecture and Civil Engineering 13, no. 2 (2015): 155–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/fuace1502155s.

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Seismic analysis of bridge pier supported on pile foundation requires consideration of soil-pile-structure (kinematic and inertial) interactions. This paper presents the design forces generated for bridge piers with varying height and constant diameter for medium and soft soils in earthquake probability zones considering contribution of soil-pile-structure interactions by developed analytical approaches. The results have shown that the difference in base shear demand between force based and displacement based approach and that between capacity spectrum and displacement based method in general

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Tzanis, A., F. Vallianatos, and A. Efstathiou. "Multidimensional earthquake frequency distributions consistent with Non-Extensive statistical physics: The interdependence of magnitude, interevent time and interevent distance in North California." Bulletin of the Geological Society of Greece 47, no. 3 (2016): 1326. http://dx.doi.org/10.12681/bgsg.10914.

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It is now accepted that the active tectonic grain comprises a self-organized complex system, therefore its expression (seismicity) should be manifested in the temporal and spatial statistics of energy release rates, and exhibit memory due to long-range interactions in a fractal-like space-time. Such attributes can be properly understood in terms of Non-Extensive Statistical Physics. In addition to energy release rates expressed by the magnitude M, measures of the temporal and spatial interactions are the time (Δt) and hypocentral distance (Δd) between consecutive events. Recent work indicated

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Main, Ian G. "Earthquakes as critical phenomena: Implications for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 85, no. 5 (1995): 1299–308. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/bssa0850051299.

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Abstract Earthquake populations have recently been postulated to be an example of a self-organized critical (SOC) phenomenon, with fractal spatial and temporal correlations and a power-law distribution of seismic energy or moment corresponding to the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) frequency-magnitude law. In fact, strict SOC behavior is not seen in all models and is confined to those with weak annealed (permanent) heterogeneity and an intermediate tectonic driving velocity or strain energy rate. Depending on these conditions, distributions may also occur that are subcritical, where the largest events

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Liu, Ai Rong, and Yong Lin Pi. "Seismic Response of Long Span Continuous Rigid-Framed Steel Arch Bridge." Key Engineering Materials 763 (February 2018): 1087–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/kem.763.1087.

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This paper investigates seismic responses of Xinguang Bridge, a 3-span continuous rigid-frame and steel-truss arch bridge. Earthquake excitation input is a key issue for the seismic analysis. This paper uses a finite element method to study the traveling wave effect on Xinguang Bridge and its interaction with the dynamic properties of the bridge under the condition of two steps and two levels probability. The seismic response of the bridge under the coincident earthquake excitation is also analyzed. Comparisons show that the seismic response of the long-span bridge by considering the traveling

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29

Porter, Keith, Gayle Johnson, Robert Sheppard, and Robert Bachman. "Fragility of Mechanical, Electrical, and Plumbing Equipment." Earthquake Spectra 26, no. 2 (2010): 451–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.3363847.

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A study for the Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research (MCEER) provides fragility functions for 52 varieties of mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) equipment commonly found in commercial and industrial buildings. For the majority of equipment categories, the MCEER study provides multiple fragility functions, reflecting important effects of bracing, anchorage, interaction, etc. The fragility functions express the probability that the component would be rendered inoperative as a function of floor acceleration. That work did not include the evidence underlying the fra

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Bakhtiari, Parham, and Khosro Bargi. "Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of High-Speed Railway Bridges Using Fragility Curves and Considering Soil-Structure Interaction." Civil and Environmental Engineering 16, no. 1 (2020): 39–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/cee-2020-0005.

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AbstractThe assessment of the seismic behavior of the high-speed railway bridges is necessary because of the strategic essence of these structures. Evaluating and predicting damages of the bridges that originated by earthquakes with various intensities can provide useful information, which is very helpful in the management of the possible crises. One of the most useful mechanisms for estimating earthquake damages to these bridges is the development of fragility curves for them. Studies on the production of fragility curves on the high-speed railway bridges are limited. In this research, the fr

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Cardani, Giuliana, and Elsa Garavaglia. "Seismic Vulnerability Assessment of Historic Centers with Two Fast Methods Based on CARTIS Survey Methodology and Fragility Curves." Heritage 7, no. 10 (2024): 5356–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/heritage7100252.

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After an earthquake, legislation tends to permit the rapid demolition of damaged buildings, including the built heritage, for safety reasons, as was the case for many small historic centers after the 2016 earthquake in central Italy. A balance should, of course, be struck between safety and preservation. There must be a willingness to engage in continuous interaction with the various bodies involved in post-earthquake management, particularly in the preventive phase of the complex activities regarding the issues of the seismic vulnerability of historic built. The widespread historical built he

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Xu, Yan, Benbo Sun, Mingjiang Deng, Jia Xu, and Pengxiao Wang. "Application of an Improved Method Combining Machine Learning–Principal Component Analysis for the Fragility Analysis of Cross-Fault Hydraulic Tunnels." Buildings 14, no. 9 (2024): 2608. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/buildings14092608.

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Machine learning (ML) approaches, widely used in civil engineering, have the potential to reduce computing costs and enhance predictive capabilities. However, many ML methods have yet to be applied to develop models that accurately analyze the nonlinear dynamic response of cross-fault hydraulic tunnels (CFHTs). To predict CFHT models and fragility curves effectively, we identify the most effective ML techniques and improve prediction capacity and accuracy by initially creating an integrated multivariate earthquake intensity measure (IM) from nine univariate earthquake IMs using principal compo

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Awayo, Daniel Dibaba. "Seismic Fragility Analysis of Hollow Concrete Block Infilled Reinforced Concrete Buildings." International Research Journal of Innovations in Engineering and Technology 06, no. 12 (2022): 52–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.47001/irjiet/2022.612008.

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Masonry infills are usually treated as nonstructural elements in buildings, and their interaction with the bounding frame is often ignored in analysis and design of reinforced concrete structures. The main aim of this study is to develop a seismic fragility curves showing the probability of exceeding a damage limit state for a given structure type subjected to a seismic excitation. For the purpose of this study, three distinct buildings namely, seven-story, eleven-story and sixteen-story, with typical floor plan were proposed as the case study. Each building cases are explicitly modeled as a b

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Lemsara, Foudhil, Tayeb Bouzid, Djarir Yahiaoui, Belgacem Mamen, and Mohamed Saadi. "Seismic Fragility of a Single Pillar-Column Under Near and Far Fault Soil Motion with Consideration of Soil-Pile Interaction." Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research 13, no. 1 (2023): 9819–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.48084/etasr.5405.

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The soil-structure interaction is a significant challenge faced by civil engineers due to the complexity potential in terms of seismic fragility evaluation. This paper presents a seismic fragility estimation of a single pier considering seismic ground motion types. Furthermore, sand type, pile diameter, pier height, and mass variation were considered to estimate their effect on the seismic fragility of the concrete pier. Incremental dynamic analysis was performed using a beam on a nonlinear Winkler foundation model. The analysis model condition compared near- and far-ground motion effects. Dyn

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Robinson, Russell, Rafael Benites, and Russ Van Dissen. "Evidence for temporal clustering of large earthquakes in the wellington region from computer models of seismicity." Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering 31, no. 1 (1998): 24–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.31.1.24-32.

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Temporal clustering of large earthquakes in the Wellington region, New Zealand, has been investigated with a computer model that generates long synthetic seismicity catalogues. The model includes the elastic interactions between faults. Faults included in the model, besides the subduction thrust between the Australian and Pacific plates, are segments of the four major strike-slip faults that overlie the plate interface (Wairarapa, Wellington, Ohariu, and Wairau faults). Parameters of the model are adjusted to reproduce the geologically ohserved slip rates of the strike-slip faults. The seismic

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Guo, Xuan, Zheyu Zhang, and ZhiQiang Chen. "Mainshock-Integrated Aftershock Vulnerability Assessment of Bridge Structures." Applied Sciences 10, no. 19 (2020): 6843. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app10196843.

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Seismic fragility analysis is often conducted to quantify the vulnerability of civil structures under earthquake excitation. In recent years, besides mainshocks, strong aftershocks have been often witnessed to induce structural damage to engineered structures, including bridges. How to accurately and straightforwardly quantify the vulnerability of bridges due to sequential mainshocks and aftershocks is essential for an efficient assessment of bridge performance. While recognizing the limitation of existing methods, this paper proposes a mainshock integrated aftershock fragility function model,

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Hu, Hongqiang, Gang Gan, Yangjuan Bao, et al. "Nonlinear Stochastic Seismic Response Analysis of Three-Dimensional Reinforced Concrete Piles." Buildings 13, no. 1 (2022): 89. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/buildings13010089.

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A reliable assessment and design of engineering structures requires appropriate estimation and consideration of different sources of uncertainty. The randomness of seismic ground motion is one major uncertainty that needs to be considered from the perspective of performance-based earthquake engineering. To properly account for this uncertainty and its corresponding effect on pile foundations, a stochastic seismic response analytical framework based on a probability density evolution method and a stochastic ground motion model is proposed for the nonlinear stochastic seismic response analysis o

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Mojtaba Khoshnafas Anari. "Influence of Foundation Stiffness on the Fragility Curves of a Concrete Gravity Dam Subjected to Near-Field Ground Motions Using Finite Element Method." Power System Technology 48, no. 1 (2024): 2333–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.52783/pst.502.

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A concrete gravity dam is being investigated to determine the fragility curves during near-field ground motions under various foundation stiffness conditions. This is accomplished using the finite element method for modeling the Latyan dam and its dam-reservoir-bed complex interaction system. The nonlinear constitutive model of concrete, plastic damage, is used to simulate the cyclic behavior of tensile and compressive failures in concrete. An acoustic element is used to model the propagation of compressive waves in the reservoir to account for the hydrodynamic effects of the lake reservoir. A

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Aryanto, Aris, and Ersadi Wiguna. "Seismic risk assessment on pile-supported wharf using reliability-based approach." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1464, no. 1 (2025): 012004. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1464/1/012004.

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Abstract Past worldwide seismic events have shown that pile-supported wharves are vulnerable and experience severe damage to collapse under earthquake loads. Significant economic loss has also been recognized, especially when wharves are built at a strategic port for sea transportation. This study assessed existing pile-supported wharves using the reliability-based approach of wharf structures under seismic loads. The procedure for seismic risk assessment for pile-supported wharf structures is explained and presented. This study uses typical container wharf structures at Jakarta Port as a case

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Avgerinou, Sophia-Ekaterini, Eleni-Apostolia Anyfadi, Georgios Michas, and Filippos Vallianatos. "A Non-Extensive Statistical Physics View of the Temporal Properties of the Recent Aftershock Sequences of Strong Earthquakes in Greece." Applied Sciences 13, no. 3 (2023): 1995. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app13031995.

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Greece is one of Europe’s most seismically active areas. Seismic activity in Greece has been characterized by a series of strong earthquakes with magnitudes up to Mw = 7.0 over the last five years. In this article we focus on these strong events, namely the Mw6.0 Arkalochori (27 September 2021), the Mw6.3 Elassona (3 March 2021), the Mw7.0 Samos (30 October 2020), the Mw5.1 Parnitha (19 July 2019), the Mw6.6 Zakynthos (25 October 2018), the Mw6.5 Kos (20 July 2017) and the Mw6.1 Mytilene (12 June 2017) earthquakes. Based on the probability distributions of interevent times between the successi

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Regenauer-Lieb, Klaus, Manman Hu, Christoph Schrank, et al. "Cross-diffusion waves resulting from multiscale, multi-physics instabilities: theory." Solid Earth 12, no. 4 (2021): 869–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/se-12-869-2021.

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Abstract. We propose a multiscale approach for coupling multi-physics processes across the scales. The physics is based on discrete phenomena, triggered by local thermo-hydro-mechano-chemical (THMC) instabilities, that cause cross-diffusion (quasi-soliton) acceleration waves. These waves nucleate when the overall stress field is incompatible with accelerations from local feedbacks of generalized THMC thermodynamic forces that trigger generalized thermodynamic fluxes of another kind. Cross-diffusion terms in the 4×4 THMC diffusion matrix are shown to lead to multiple diffusional P and S wave eq

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Parsons, T. "Heightened Odds of Large Earthquakes Near Istanbul: An Interaction-Based Probability Calculation." Science 288, no. 5466 (2000): 661–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.288.5466.661.

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Hill, David P., Fred Pollitz, and Christopher Newhall. "Earthquake–Volcano Interactions." Physics Today 55, no. 11 (2002): 41–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.1535006.

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Tseng, Chih-Ming, Yie-Ruey Chen, Chwen-Ming Chang, Ya-Ling Yang, Yu-Ru Chen, and Shun-Chieh Hsieh. "Statistical Analysis of the Potential of Landslides Induced by Combination between Rainfall and Earthquakes." Water 14, no. 22 (2022): 3691. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w14223691.

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This study analyzed the potential of landslides induced by the interaction between rainfall and earthquakes. Dapu Township and Alishan Township in Chiayi County, southern Taiwan, were included as study areas. From satellite images and the literature, we collected data for multiple years and time series and then used the random forest data mining algorithm for satellite image interpretation. A hazard index for the interaction between earthquakes and rainfall (IHERI) was proposed, and an index for the degree of land disturbance (IDLD) was estimated to explore the characteristics of IHERI under s

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Jiménez, A., A. M. Posadas, T. Hirata, and J. M. García. "Probabilistic seismic hazard maps from seismicity patterns analysis: the Iberian Peninsula case." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 4, no. 3 (2004): 407–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-4-407-2004.

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Abstract. Earthquake prediction is a main topic in Seismology. Here, the goal is to know the correlation between the seismicity at a certain place at a given time with the seismicity at the same place, but at a following interval of time. There are no ways for exact predictions, but one can wonder about the causality relations between the seismic characteristics at a given time interval and another in a region. In this paper, a new approach to this kind of studies is presented. Tools which include cellular automata theory and Shannon's entropy are used. First, the catalogue is divided into tim

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Lari, S., P. Frattini, and G. B. Crosta. "Local scale multiple quantitative risk assessment and uncertainty evaluation in a densely urbanised area (Brescia, Italy)." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 12, no. 11 (2012): 3387–406. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3387-2012.

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Abstract. The study of the interactions between natural and anthropogenic risks is necessary for quantitative risk assessment in areas affected by active natural processes, high population density and strong economic activities. We present a multiple quantitative risk assessment on a 420 km2 high risk area (Brescia and surroundings, Lombardy, Northern Italy), for flood, seismic and industrial accident scenarios. Expected economic annual losses are quantified for each scenario and annual exceedance probability-loss curves are calculated. Uncertainty on the input variables is propagated by means

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TSUKUDA, Tameshige. "Earthquake Forecast based on Probability." Zisin (Journal of the Seismological Society of Japan. 2nd ser.) 56, no. 1 (2003): 11–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.4294/zisin1948.56.1_11.

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Schorlemmer, D., and J. Woessner. "Probability of Detecting an Earthquake." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 98, no. 5 (2008): 2103–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120070105.

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Cochard, A., O. Lengliné, K. J. Måløy, and R. Toussaint. "Thermally activated crack fronts propagating in pinning disorder: simultaneous brittle/creep behaviour depending on scale." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 377, no. 2136 (2018): 20170399. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2017.0399.

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We study theoretically the propagation of a crack front in mode I along an interface in a disordered elastic medium, with a numerical model considering a thermally activated rheology, toughness disorder and long-range elastic interactions. This model reproduces not only the large-scale dynamics of the crack front position in fast or creep loading regimes, but also the small-scale self-affine behaviour of the front. Two different scaling laws are predicted for the front morphology, with a Hurst exponent of 0.5 at small scales and a logarithmic scaling law at large scales, consistently with expe

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Wang, J. P., and Y. Xu. "A non-stationary earthquake probability assessment with the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 15, no. 10 (2015): 2401–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2401-2015.

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Abstract. From theory to experience, earthquake probability associated with an active fault should be gradually increasing with time since the last event. In this paper, a new non-stationary earthquake assessment motivated/derived from the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion is introduced. Different from other non-stationary earthquake analyses, the new model can more clearly define and calculate the stress states between two characteristic earthquakes. In addition to the model development and the algorithms, this paper also presents an example calculation to help explain and validate the new model

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