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Journal articles on the topic 'Earthquake modeling'
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1
Menasri, A., M. Brahimi, R. Frank, and A. Bali. "ARMA Modeling of Artificial Accelerograms for Algeria." Applied Mechanics and Materials 105-107 (September 2011): 348–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.105-107.348.
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The main aim of this study is to examine on the real and simulated earthquakes effects. This paper deals with the use of ARMA models in earthquake engineering. The time-varying auto regressive moving average (ARMA) process is used as a simple yet efficient method for simulating earthquake ground motions. This model is capable of reproducing the nonstationary amplitude as well as the frequency content of the earthquake ground accelerations. The moving time-window technique is applied to synthesize the near field earthquakes, Chlef-1, Chlef-2, Chlef-3 and Attaf 1980 recorded on dense soils in Algeria. This model, is based on a low-order, time-invariant ARMA process excited by Gaussian white noise and amplitude modulated using a simple envelope function to account for the non-stationary characteristics. This simple model gives a reasonable fit to the observed ground motion. It is shown that the selected ARMA (2,1) model and the algorithm used for generating the accelerograms are able to preserve the features of the real earthquake records with different frequency content. In this evaluation, the linear and non linear responses of a given soil layer have been adopted. This study suggests the ability to characterize the earthquake by a minimum number of parameters.
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Charpentier, Arthur, and Marilou Durand. "Modeling earthquake dynamics." Journal of Seismology 19, no. 3 (April 16, 2015): 721–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10950-015-9489-9.
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Lin, Jeng Hsiang. "Time Series Modeling of Earthquake Ground Motions Using ARMA-GARCH Models." Applied Mechanics and Materials 470 (December 2013): 240–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.470.240.
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Engineers are well aware that, due to the stochastic nature of earthquake ground motion, the information obtained from structural response analysis using scant records is quite unreliable. Thus, providing earthquake models for specific sites or areas of research and practical implementation is essential. This paper presents a procedure for the modeling strong earthquake ground motion based on autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models. The Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model is used to simulate the time-varying characteristics of earthquakes.
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Xia, Wenjie. "Electrochemical Seismic Design and Artificial Intelligence System Modeling of High-Rise Steel Structure Buildings." Journal of Chemistry 2022 (June 13, 2022): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2022/8693110.
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This study aims to improve the mechanical earthquake-resistance ability of high-rise buildings’ steel structures so that their safety performance is improved and their service life is prolonged. The simulation experiments on the response of the staggered truss steel structure are conducted in high-rise buildings to earthquake energy waves. First, MATLAB is used to build an experimental platform for earthquake-resistance evaluation of high-rise residential buildings. Through the high-rise building model training, it is found that the model meets the needs of the study. Second, the earthquake-resistance performance parameters, deformation recovery capacity, and dynamic response speed of the staggered truss steel structure are simulated and tested. After earthquake energy waves with different intensities are posed on the high-rise building model, the performance parameters of the staggered truss structure are tested, and the changes in the parameters of the structure are analyzed. Finally, the earthquake-resistance performance and post-earthquake recovery ability of the staggered truss structure are tested through comparative analysis. The results show that the interlayer displacement fluctuation of the staggered truss steel structure is the smallest, and the earthquake resistance performance is better than others under the energy waves of all kinds of earthquakes. Although its earthquake-resistance ability decreases with the duration of earthquakes, the reduction speed is slow. When the quake lasts 12 s, the resistance of the staggered truss structure is still greater than 2500 MPa. This study provides a reference for the staggered truss structure of high-rise buildings.
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Abbas, Intisar H., and Maysam Th Al-hadidi. "Effect of Halabjah Earthquake on Al-Wand Earth Dam: Numerical Analysis." E3S Web of Conferences 318 (2021): 01016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202131801016.
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The Halabja earthquake occurred on 12/11/2017 in Iraq, with a magnitude of 7.3 Mw, which happened in the Iraqi-Iranian borders. This earthquake killed and injured many people in the Kurdish region in the north of the country. There is no natural disaster more dangerous than earthquake, especially it occurs without warning, great attention must be paid to the impact of earthquakes on the soil and preparing for a wave of earthquakes. Numerical modeling using specific elements is considered a powerful tool to investigate the required behavior of structures in Geotechnical engineering, and the main objective of this is to assess the response of the Al-Wand dam to the Halabja earthquake, as this dam is located in an area that has been subjected to seismic activity recently. The modeling was done through the Geo-studio program, where the seepage was analyzed during the Al-wand dam using the Seep/w program. It was verified that the dam was safe against seepage failure and then moved to the QUAKE/W (a subprogram of GEOSTUDIO, which is used for liquefaction modeling of earthquakes and dynamic loading and determines the movement and increased pressures of pore water that arise due to earthquake vibration or sudden shock loads). The program was used to analyze the effect of the earthquake on the porewater pressure, effective stresses, and displacements. Also, it is not clear that the significant impact the earthquake has on these values. Finally, the Slope/w program was used to analyze the stability of the dam and to calculate the safety factor of the dam in two ways, and the results of the analysis show that the dam is considered safe under the influence of the tremor.
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Monica, Fadilla, Vira Friska, Deasy Arisa, and Marzuki Marzuki. "Comparison of Deformation Vectors Due to Earthquake in Subduction Zone and Sumatran Fault for Each Phase of Earthquake Cycle." JURNAL ILMU FISIKA | UNIVERSITAS ANDALAS 14, no. 2 (June 20, 2022): 73–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.25077/jif.14.2.73-85.2022.
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This study compares the deformation in West Sumatra due to the earthquakes in the subduction zone and the Sumatran Fault. The Mw6.0 Mentawai earthquake 2019 with a thrust fault mechanism and the Mw5.4 South Solok earthquake 2019 with a strike-slip fault mechanism were used as case studies for the subduction zone and Sumatran Fault, respectively. The deformation was observed using 12 SuGAr (Sumatra GPS Array) and 8 InaCORS (Indonesian Continuously Operating Reference Station) stations, which were processed using GAMIT/GLOBK software. There are differences in the deformation vectors of the two earthquakes. The Mentawai earthquake experienced larger energy accumulation than the South Solok earthquake. The coseismic phase of the Mentawai earthquake experienced the largest horizontal shift at the SLBU station, which was 15.48 mm in the direction of S29.96W, while the South Solok earthquake is found to horizontally shift the CSDH station at the size of 5.75 mm towards S11.45E. The postseismic phase of the Mentawai earthquake lasted 60 days, longer than the South Solok earthquake (20 days). The difference in deformation characteristic between these two earthquakes found in this study will be valuable information in modeling earthquakes in Sumatra.
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Madlazim, M. "COULOMB STRESS CHANGES DUE TO RECENT ACEH EARTHQUAKES." Jurnal Penelitian Fisika dan Aplikasinya (JPFA) 5, no. 1 (June 14, 2015): 9. http://dx.doi.org/10.26740/jpfa.v5n1.p9-14.
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Coulomb stress change analysis has been applied to understand whether the 2013/07/02 (Mw=6.1) has been triggered by 2013/01/21 earthquake (Mw=6.1) the proximity to failure on the Aceh segment of Sumatra Fault Zone (SFZ). We examine the problem of how one earthquake might trigger another using Coulomb stress changes plotting. To plot the Coulomb stress changes, we used Global CMT data for the both earthquakes and used GEOFON data for manually revised epicenters of its aftershocks. The earthquakes are located on Aceh segment of the historic no recorded large earthquake. Coulomb stress changes modeling of the both earthquakes and plot their aftershocks. Surprisingly, the 2013/07/02 earthquake is located on increasing Coulomb stress changes region of 2013/01/21 earthquake plotting. Here explain that the 2013/07/02 earthquake has been triggered by the 2013/01/21 earthquake. Further, the two aftershocks of the 2013/07/02 earthquake is located on increasing Coulomb stress changes region of 2013/07/02 earthquake plotting. So that, the aftershocks has been triggered by increasing Coulomb stress changes of the 2013/07/02 earthquake.
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Shao, Bo, Guiting Hou, and Jun Shen. "Inter-episodes earthquake migration in the Bohai-Zhangjiakou Fault Zone, North China: Insights from numerical modeling." PLOS ONE 16, no. 5 (May 19, 2021): e0251606. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0251606.
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In this paper, we focus on why intraplate seismic initiation and migration occurs, which has widely been considered to be caused by static stress triggering caused by earthquakes, as well as post-seismic slips. To illustrate the mechanism underlying large earthquakes, in particular the migration caused by two key episodes that occurred after 1500 in the Bohai-Zhangjiakou Fault Zone (BZFZ) of North China, we developed a high-resolution three-dimensional viscoelastic finite element model that includes the active faults with vertical segmentation, their periodical locking, and the lithosphere heterogeneity. We used the birth and death of element groups to simulate stress intensity changes during the two episodes (named Episode I and II), with our results showing that the Tangshan earthquake was primarily triggered by the Sanhe-Pinggu M8.0 earthquake in 1679, whereas the Zhangbei M6.2 earthquake in 1998 was not triggered by earthquakes in Episode I. According to our work, the calculated stress changes in the different segments of the fault zone correspond to the magnitude of the triggered earthquakes. Further, the largest stress decrease was near the Sanhe-Pinggu fault and occurred the largest earthquake in Episode I, whereas the largest stress increase was near the Tangshan fault and occurred during the largest earthquake in Episode II. Given the above, we propose a model for seismic migration to describe the dynamic mechanisms of earthquake migration within the BZFZ and North China, in which the factors affecting both the seismic migration path and intensity primarily include the distance between the triggered active fault and the original fault, the coupling of the active faults, the location and scale of the low-velocity anomaly, its distance from the active fault, and the location and scale of the crustal thinning.
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Ogawa, Yoshiki, Yoshihide Sekimoto, and Ryosuke Shibasaki. "Estimation of earthquake damage to urban environments using sparse modeling." Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science 48, no. 5 (January 21, 2021): 1075–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2399808320986560.
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For the establishment of precise disaster prevention measures in response to the Nankai megathrust earthquakes predicted to occur in the future, it is necessary to conduct numerous earthquake simulations and evaluate the vulnerability of the urban environment quantitatively. This vulnerability is evaluated on the basis of factors such as the extent of damage from earthquakes, as well as the attributes of residents, urban infrastructure, and systems in the environment. In this study, we propose a sparse modeling (SpM)-based technique for the evaluation of potential damage to urban environments due to Nankai megathrust earthquakes in Japan. As explanatory variables, any variables related to urban environments in Kochi Prefecture are considered. The results show that, unlike the so-called “complex disaster” events, the number of critical variables that characterize damage states when external disaster forces data (e.g. estimated seismic motion and tsunami height) and urban environment data are available is low, regardless of the magnitude of damage. In other words, urban system variables selected for damage states may be extracted as variables indicating vulnerability to earthquake damage. In addition, we evaluated the characteristics of different cities by visualizing the SpM results on a radar chart. The proposed technique is useful for gaining a deeper understanding of the influence of urban environment variables on earthquake damages. Furthermore, it is expected that measures for improving urban system resilience will be explored based on the proposed technique.
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Zimbidis, Alexandros A., Nickolaos E. Frangos, and Athanasios A. Pantelous. "Modeling Earthquake Risk via Extreme Value Theory and Pricing the Respective Catastrophe Bonds." ASTIN Bulletin 37, no. 01 (May 2007): 163–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.2143/ast.37.1.2020804.
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The aim of the paper is twofold. Firstly, to analyze the historical data of the earthquakes in the boarder area of Greece and then to produce a reliable model for the risk dynamics of the magnitude of the earthquakes, using advanced techniques from the Extreme Value Theory. Secondly, to discuss briefly the relevant theory of incomplete markets and price earthquake catastrophe bonds, combining the model found for the earthquake risk and an appropriate model for the interest rate dynamics in an incomplete market framework. The paper ends by providing some numerical results using Monte Carlo simulation techniques and stochastic iterative equations.
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Zimbidis, Alexandros A., Nickolaos E. Frangos, and Athanasios A. Pantelous. "Modeling Earthquake Risk via Extreme Value Theory and Pricing the Respective Catastrophe Bonds." ASTIN Bulletin 37, no. 1 (May 2007): 163–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0515036100014793.
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The aim of the paper is twofold. Firstly, to analyze the historical data of the earthquakes in the boarder area of Greece and then to produce a reliable model for the risk dynamics of the magnitude of the earthquakes, using advanced techniques from the Extreme Value Theory. Secondly, to discuss briefly the relevant theory of incomplete markets and price earthquake catastrophe bonds, combining the model found for the earthquake risk and an appropriate model for the interest rate dynamics in an incomplete market framework. The paper ends by providing some numerical results using Monte Carlo simulation techniques and stochastic iterative equations.
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Wilson, David C., Emily Wolin, William L. Yeck, Robert E. Anthony, and Adam T. Ringler. "Modeling Seismic Network Detection Thresholds Using Production Picking Algorithms." Seismological Research Letters 93, no. 1 (October 20, 2021): 149–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0220210192.
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Abstract Estimating the detection threshold of a seismic network (the minimum magnitude earthquake that can be reliably located) is a critical part of network design and can drive network maintenance efforts. The ability of a station to detect an earthquake is often estimated by assuming the spectral amplitude for an earthquake of a given size, assuming an attenuation relationship, and comparing the predicted amplitude with the average station background noise level. This approach has significant uncertainty because of unknown regional attenuation and complications in computing small event power spectra, and it fails to account for the specific capabilities of the automatic seismic phase picker used in monitoring. We develop a data-driven approach to determine network detection thresholds using a multiband phase picking algorithm that is currently in use at the U.S. Geological Survey National Earthquake Information Center. We apply this picking algorithm to cataloged earthquakes to determine an empirical relationship of the observability of earthquakes as a function of magnitude and distance. Using this relationship, we produce maps of detection threshold using station spatial configuration and station noise levels. We show that quiet, well-sited stations significantly increase the detection capabilities of a network compared with a network composed of many noisy stations. Because our method is data driven, it has two distinct advantages: (1) it is less dependent on theoretical assumptions of source spectra and models of regional attenuation, and (2) it can easily be applied to any seismic network. This tool allows for an objective approach to the management of stations in regional seismic networks.
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Cousins, Jim, Geoff Thomas, Dave Heron, and Warwick Smith. "Probabilistic Modeling of Post-Earthquake Fire in Wellington, New Zealand." Earthquake Spectra 28, no. 2 (May 2012): 553–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.4000002.
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Wellington, the capital of New Zealand, has both high seismic and high post-earthquake fire risk because it straddles the highly active Wellington Fault, has many closely spaced wooden buildings, and has a fragile water supply system. Repeated modeling of a Wellington Fault earthquake showed that the distribution of fire losses was much broader than that of the shaking losses, so that while fire losses were usually much smaller than the preceding shaking losses, they could occasionally be much greater than the shaking losses. Probabilistic modeling using a synthetic catalog of earthquakes gave estimates of post-earthquake fire losses in Wellington that were relatively minor for return periods up to 1,000 years, equal to the shaking losses at about a 1,400-year level, and that dominated the losses for 2,000-year and longer return periods.
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Hashemi, M., and A. A. Alesheikh. "Development and implementation of a GIS-based tool for spatial modeling of seismic vulnerability of Tehran." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 12, no. 12 (December 17, 2012): 3659–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3659-2012.
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Abstract. Achieving sustainable development in countries prone to earthquakes is possible with taking effective measures to reduce vulnerability to earthquakes. In this context, damage assessment of hypothetical earthquakes and planning for disaster management are important issues. Having a computer tool capable of estimating structural and human losses from earthquakes in a specific region may facilitate the decision-making process before and during disasters. Interoperability of this tool with wide-spread spatial analysis frameworks will expedite the data transferring process. In this study, the earthquake damage assessment (EDA) software tool is developed as an embedded extension within a GIS (geographic information system) environment for the city of Tehran, Iran. This GIS-based extension provides users with a familiar environment to estimate and observe the probable damages and fatalities of a deterministic earthquake scenario. The productivity of this tool is later demonstrated for southern Karoon parish, Region 10, Tehran. Three case studies for three active faults in the area and a comparison of the results with other research substantiated the reliability of this tool for additional earthquake scenarios.
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Yavari, Soheil, Stephanie E. Chang, and Kenneth J. Elwood. "Modeling Post-Earthquake Functionality of Regional Health Care Facilities." Earthquake Spectra 26, no. 3 (August 2010): 869–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.3460359.
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This study introduces a methodology for anticipating the post-earthquake functionality of hospitals in a region. Performance levels for interacting systems (structural, nonstructural, lifeline, and personnel) in a hospital are operationally defined, empirically correlated, and probabilistically modeled using damage data from past earthquakes. Separate models are developed for buildings built before and after the 1973 California Hospital Seismic Safety Act. Performance estimates of the systems are used to anticipate overall hospital functionality. Effects of external power and water outage are also included. As a case study, the methodology is utilized to predict the functionality of hospitals in Los Angeles County for two earthquake scenarios. Findings indicate that in a M6.9 Verdugo fault earthquake scenario, nearly half of county hospitals have at least a 50% chance of experiencing significant loss of functionality. Such findings can support emergency response planning as well as seismic retrofit prioritization.
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Khoiridah, Sayyidatul, Moh Ikhyatul Ibad, and Wiko Setyonegoro. "Validasi Potensi Tsunami Berdasarkan Estimasi Durasi Patahan dan Pemodelan Tsunami di Wilayah Barat Sumatra (Studi Kasus: Gempa Bumi Nias 2005 dan Mentawai 2010)." Oseanologi dan Limnologi di Indonesia 2, no. 1 (May 5, 2017): 39. http://dx.doi.org/10.14203/oldi.2017.v2i1.17.
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<strong>Validation of Potential Tsunami Based on Rupture Duration Estimation and Tsunami Modeling in the West Sumatran Region (Case Study: Nias 2005 and Mentawai 2010 Earthquakes). </strong>This research was conducted in the earthquake areas in the West Sumatra to determine the characteristics of tsunami generation through estimation of rupture duration and modeling of tsunamis. The case studies were carried out at two incidents: earthquake in Nias on March 28, 2005 and in Mentawai on October 25, 2010. The purpose of this study was to estimate the characteristics of potential earthquaketriggering tsunamis in the western region of Sumatra based on the duration of rupture, which was then validated by a tsunami modeling. A method for validation was carried out by analyzing a potency of a tsunami based on the earthquake source (source modeling), the propagation of the tsunami wave (ocean modeling), and the height of the tsunami (run-up tsunami). The results showed the duration of the earthquakes in Nias rupture (2005) and Mentawai rupture (2010) were more than 50 seconds, thus, both earthquakes promoted tsunami. The results of tsunami propagation revealed that the tsunami had spread to some areas near the source of the Nias earthquake after 58 minutes and 20 seconds. The area affected by the Nias tsunami included the Salaut island, a section at northwestern Simeulue, a section at southwestern Simeulue, Babi island, Bangkuru island, Tuangku island, Singkil, Sarangbaung, Asu island, southwestern Lagundri Nias, and Northwestern Batu island. The highest tsunami hit Babi island with the magnitude of 13.80 m. Moreover, the tsunami affected the wider areas in Mentawai including the beaches of Batimonga, Ghobi, Tumale, Pasangan, Sabeugunggung, Malacopa, and Asahan with the highest value of run-up on Malacopa beach was 8.17 m.
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VEITCH, STEPHEN A., and MEREDITH NETTLES. "Assessment of glacial-earthquake source parameters." Journal of Glaciology 63, no. 241 (October 2017): 867–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/jog.2017.52.
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ABSTRACTGlacial earthquakes are slow earthquakes of magnitude M~5 associated with major calving events at near-grounded marine-terminating glaciers. These globally detectable earthquakes provide information on the grounding state of outlet glaciers and the timing of large calving events. Seismic source modeling of glacial earthquakes provides information on the size and orientation of forces associated with calving events. We compare force orientations estimated using a centroid-single-force technique with the calving-front orientations of the source glaciers at or near the time of earthquake occurrence. We consider earthquakes recorded at four glaciers in Greenland – Kangerdlugssuaq Glacier, Helheim Glacier, Kong Oscar Glacier, and Jakobshavn Isbræ – between 1999 and 2010. We find that the estimated earthquake force orientations accurately represent the orientation of the calving front at the time of the earthquake, and that seismogenic calving events are produced by a preferred section of the calving front, which may change with time. We also find that estimated earthquake locations vary in a manner consistent with changes in calving-front position, though with large scatter. We conclude that changes in glacial-earthquake source parameters reflect true changes in the geometry of the source glaciers, providing a means for identifying changes in glacier geometry and dynamics that complements traditional remote-sensing techniques.
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Pertsinidou, C. E., G. Tsaklidis, N. Limnios, and E. Papadimitriou. "MODELING THE SEISMICITY OF CENTRAL IONIAN ISLANDS WITH SEMI-MARKOV MODELS." Bulletin of the Geological Society of Greece 50, no. 3 (July 27, 2017): 1399. http://dx.doi.org/10.12681/bgsg.11853.
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Earthquakes with M ≥ 5.2 that occurred in the area of central Ionian Islands (1911- 2014) are assumed to form a semi-Markov chain, aiming to contribute in the field of seismic hazard assessment. The sojourn times are considered to be geometric or approximated by Pareto distributions. Destination probabilities are examined and the results demonstrate that in many cases these probabilities become higher adequately forecasting the magnitude class of an anticipated earthquake. The geometrically distributed model can also reveal the more probable occurrence time of the next earthquake since for this model the destination probabilities were found to obtain many times their maximum values for the real occurrence time. The successful forecasting as for the occurrence time is 63.75% for all earthquakes and becomes 71.42% for the larger magnitude events (M ≥ 6.0).
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Saito, Tatsuhiko, and Tatsuya Kubota. "Tsunami Modeling for the Deep Sea and Inside Focal Areas." Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 48, no. 1 (May 30, 2020): 121–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-earth-071719-054845.
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This article reviews tsunami modeling and its relation to recent developments of deep-ocean observations. Unlike near-coast observations, deep-ocean observations have enabled the capture of short-wavelength dispersive tsunamis and reflected waves from the coast. By analyzing these waves, researchers can estimate tsunami sources and earthquake slip distributions more reliably with higher spatial resolution. In addition, fractional tsunami speed reduction due to the elasticity of the Earth medium is now clearly detected. Densely and widely distributed tsunami sensors make it possible to observe tsunamis inside the earthquake focal area, and understanding tsunami generation mechanisms is increasingly important. In order to describe the generation field, we should consider seismic waves overlapping tsunami signals in addition to vertical and horizontal displacements at the sea bottom. The importance of elastic dynamics, in addition to fluid dynamics, is increasing in order for researchers to fully understand tsunami phenomena using the new offshore and inside focal area observations. ▪ Deep-ocean observations have advanced tsunami propagation modeling. ▪ New deep-ocean observations in earthquake focal areas are expected to detect in situ tsunami generation caused by megathrust earthquakes. ▪ The importance of elastic dynamics, in addition to fluid dynamics, is increasing to help researchers fully understand mechanics in tsunami generation and propagation. ▪ Tsunami modeling including earthquake rupture and seismic waves contributes to mega-thrust earthquake investigation and disaster mitigation.
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Ide, Satoshi, and Hideo Aochi. "Modeling Earthquakes Using Fractal Circular Patch Models with Lessons from the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake." Journal of Disaster Research 9, no. 3 (June 1, 2014): 264–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2014.p0264.
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Earthquakes occur in a complex hierarchical fault system, meaning that a realistic mechanically-consistent model is required to describe heterogeneity simply and over a wide scale. We developed a simple conceptual mechanical model using fractal circular patches associated with fracture energy on a fault plane. This model explains the complexity and scaling relation in the dynamic rupture process. We also show that such a fractal patch model is useful in simulating longterm seismicity in a hierarchal fault system by using external loading. In these studies, an earthquake of any magnitude appears as a completely random cascade growing from a small patch to larger patches. This model is thus potentially useful as a benchmarking scenario for evaluating probabilistic gain in probabilistic earthquake forecasts. The model is applied to the real case of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake based on prior information from a seismicity catalog to reproduce the complex rupture process of this very large earthquake and its resulting ground motion. Provided that a high-quality seismicity catalog is available for other regions, similar approach using this conceptual model may provide scenarios for other potential large earthquakes.
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Haerudin, Nandi, Rustadi Rustadi, Helmy Fitriawan, Deassy Siska, and Muchammad Farid. "Earthquake Disaster Mitigation Mapping By Modeling of Land Layer and Site Effect Zone in The Kota Baru of South Lampung." Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Fisika Al-Biruni 8, no. 1 (April 29, 2019): 53–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.24042/jipfalbiruni.v8i1.3705.
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Kota Baru is the satellite city of Bandar Lampung. The city is prepared for the expansion of the city of Bandar Lampung. Zonation map of earthquake risk is required for Kota Baru due to its location within the reach of earthquake energy of Semangko subduction fault. In this study, we model the earthquake-prone zone map based on the soil characteristics (site effect) combined with the underground layer model to get a detailed description of the horizontal and vertical soil character. The microtremor method is performed to obtain the zonation effect mapping. Whereas, the ground layer modeling is obtained using the geoelectrical method. The modeling results show that the study area is far from tectonic activity based on the history of past earthquake events. However, this area has a large sediment thickness and has a low dominant frequency value, so it is an area that is vulnerable to earthquakes
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Doser, Diane I., and Hiroo Kanamori. "Long-period surface waves of four western United States earthquakes recorded by the Pasadena strainmeter." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 77, no. 1 (February 1, 1987): 236–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/bssa0770010236.
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Abstract Long-period surface waves recorded on the north-south Pasadena strainmeter are used to determine the seismic moments and fault parameters of the 19 May 1940 Imperial Valley, California, the 16 December 1954 Dixie Valley and Fairview Peak, Nevada, and the 18 August 1959 Hebgen Lake, Montana, earthquakes. Synthetic strain seismograms are matched with the observed strainmeter seismograms. Source parameters from the strainmeter modeling are more consistent with source parameters estimated from geodetic and geologic information than parameters estimated from short-period (<15 sec) body wave data. Long-period surface wave moment estimates agree well with geodetic estimates of moment, but are 1.5 to 5 times greater than moments obtained from modeling of teleseismic body waves or geologic information. The Imperial Valley earthquake is best modeled as consisting of 5 point sources along a fault 87.5 km in length with a strike, rake, and dip of 326°, 180°, and 90°. The moment for the earthquake was 4.8 × 1019 N-m. The synthetic seismogram that best models the Fairview Peak and Dixie Valley earthquakes assumes that the Fairview Peak earthquake was twice the size of the Dixie Valley event. Moments of 5.9 to 13 × 1019 and 3 to 6.5 × 1019 N-m are obtained for these events. A moment of 1.5 × 1020 N-m is obtained for the Hebgen Lake earthquake. Love waves of this earthquake are best modeled by a fault striking 102°, although surface faulting produced during the earthquake strikes 130°.
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Omira, R., D. Vales, C. Marreiros, and F. Carrilho. "Large submarine earthquakes that occurred worldwide in a 1-year period (June 2013 to June 2014) – a contribution to the understanding of tsunamigenic potential." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 15, no. 10 (October 7, 2015): 2183–200. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-15-2183-2015.
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Abstract. This paper is a contribution to a better understanding of the tsunamigenic potential of large submarine earthquakes. Here, we analyze the tsunamigenic potential of large earthquakes which have occurred worldwide with magnitudes around Mw = 7.0 and greater during a period of 1 year, from June 2013 to June 2014. The analysis involves earthquake model evaluation, tsunami numerical modeling, and sensors' records analysis in order to confirm the generation of a tsunami (or lack thereof) following the occurrence of an earthquake. We also investigate and discuss the sensitivity of tsunami generation to the earthquake parameters recognized to control tsunami occurrence, including the earthquake location, magnitude, focal mechanism and fault rupture depth. Through this analysis, we attempt to understand why some earthquakes trigger tsunamis and others do not, and how the earthquake source parameters are related to the potential of tsunami generation. We further discuss the performance of tsunami warning systems in detecting tsunamis and disseminating the alerts. A total of 23 events, with magnitudes ranging from Mw = 6.7 to Mw = 8.1, have been analyzed. This study shows that about 39 % of the analyzed earthquakes caused tsunamis that were recorded by different sensors with wave amplitudes varying from a few centimeters to about 2 m. Tsunami numerical modeling shows good agreement between simulated waveforms and recorded waveforms, for some events. On the other hand, simulations of tsunami generation predict that some of the events, considered as non-tsunamigenic, caused small tsunamis. We find that most generated tsunamis were caused by shallow earthquakes (depth < 30 km) and thrust faults that took place on/near the subduction zones. The results of this study can help the development of modified and improved versions of tsunami decision matrixes for various oceanic domains.
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Omira, R., D. Vales, C. Marreiros, and F. Carrilho. "Large submarine earthquakes occurred worldwide, 1 year period (June 2013 to June 2014), – contribution to the understanding of tsunamigenic potential." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences Discussions 3, no. 3 (March 11, 2015): 1861–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhessd-3-1861-2015.
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Abstract. This paper is a contribution to a better understanding of tsunamigenic potential from large submarine earthquakes. Here, we analyse the tsunamigenic potential of large earthquakes occurred worldwide with magnitudes around Mw 7.0 and greater, during a period of 1 year, from June 2013 to June 2014. The analysis involves earthquake model evaluation, tsunami numerical modelling, and sensors' records analysis in order to confirm the generation or not of a tsunami following the occurrence of an earthquake. We also investigate and discuss the sensitivity of tsunami generation to the earthquake parameters recognized to control the tsunami occurrence, including the earthquake magnitude, focal mechanism and fault rupture depth. A total of 23 events, with magnitudes ranging from Mw 6.7 to Mw 8.1 and hypocenter depths varying from 10 up to 585 km, have been analyzed in this study. Among them, 52% are thrust faults, 35% are strike-slip faults, and 13% are normal faults. Most analyzed events have been occurred in the Pacific Ocean. This study shows that about 39% of the analyzed earthquakes caused tsunamis that were recorded by different sensors with wave amplitudes varying from few centimetres to about 2 m. Some of them caused inundations of low-lying coastal areas and significant damages in harbours. On the other hand, tsunami numerical modeling shows that some of the events, considered as non-tsunamigenic, might trigger small tsunamis that were not recorded due to the absence of sensors in the near-field areas. We also find that the tsunami generation is mainly dependent of the earthquake focal mechanism and other parameters such as the earthquake hypocenter depth and the magnitude. The results of this study can help on the compilation of tsunami catalogs.
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Aprilyanto, I. Dewa Ketut Kerta Widana, Ady Subiyanto, and Hafizh Surya Islami. "Model system dynamics potential impact of disasters due to the re-period of the October 25th, 2010 earthquake in the Mentawai Islands." E3S Web of Conferences 331 (2021): 07004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202133107004.
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Geographically, the Mentawai Islands Regency has a territorial boundary with the sea. The north side is the Siberut Strait, the south side is bordered by the Indian Ocean, the east side is bordered by the Mentawai Strait, and the west side is bordered by the Indian Ocean. The Mentawai Islands Regency area has a high level of seismicity which makes it prone to earthquakes and tsunamis because it has an earthquake return period. Population and economic growth in the Mentawai Islands Regency continue to increase, resulting in a higher level of threat due to earthquakes and tsunamis to people and buildings. By using earthquake return period modeling based on secondary data and population and building growth modeling using system dynamics, Pentahelix can implement disaster risk mitigation in the Mentawai Islands Regency to reduce the risk of casualties and material losses. Based on the prediction that the Mentawai earthquake return period on October 25, 2010, will occur for 24 years to 57 years or around 2034 to 2067, and the results of system dynamics modeling with Powersim Studio 10 software, the number of vulnerable people affected is 24,764 people up to 42,944 people and potential losses. housing sector between 144.73 billion to 250.98 billion.
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Park, Eun Soo, and Hee Chang Seo. "Risk Analysis for Earthquake-Damaged Buildings Using Point Cloud and BIM Data: A Case Study of the Daeseong Apartment Complex in Pohang, South Korea." Sustainability 13, no. 2 (January 6, 2021): 456. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su13020456.
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Since 2016, the frequency and scale of earthquakes have been rapidly increasing in South Korea. In particular, the damage caused by the Gyeongju and Pohang earthquakes has attracted considerable attention since 2017, leading to changes in social insensitivity to safety and the perception of seismic damage to facilities. However, the current risk assessment technology for earthquake-damaged buildings is subjective and inaccurate, as it is based on visual inspection for a limited time. Accordingly, this study focuses on improving the method of analysis of disaster-damaged buildings. To this end, the study analyzes the risk factors of earthquake-damaged buildings by comparing point cloud data using 3D scanning technology with Building Information Modeling (BIM) spatial information, which is based on the existing design information. To apply this technology, existing design information was acquired through BIM modeling of the existing 2D design drawings of Building E in the Daeseong Apartment Complex (located in Heunghae-eup, Pohang City). This study is expected to contribute to improving the efficiency of measurement technology for earthquake-damaged buildings by analyzing old buildings’ BIM-based 3D modeling visualization information without drawing information, and thus improving the accuracy of seismic damage risk measurement by scanning point cloud data.
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Sen, Mrinal K. "Modeling of wave propagation in northern Los Angeles basin." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 81, no. 3 (June 1, 1991): 751–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/bssa0810030751.
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Abstract The Los Angeles basin is characterized by deep structural complexity and is the site of numerous earthquakes. We analyze the amplitude and waveform data of earthquakes recorded in the Los Angeles basin in order to identify the structurally controlled path effects. This has been done in order to determine which features of the structure affect the observations and to generate improved models in different parts of the basin increasing our capabilities of predicting seismic hazard. Several structural models of the L.A. basin that are based on regional subsurface studies, exposed sections, scattered oil wells, and other limited geophysical data have recently become available. In this study, we have used seismic modeling techniques together with geologic models to attempt to explain site variations in some important data bases. We have modeled waveforms of (1) the 19 January 1989 Malibu earthquake data recorded in Pasadena, (2) an M = 2.8 earthquake recorded by the USC downhole array in the Baldwin Hills, southern California, and (3) two aftershocks of the Whittier Narrows earthquake recorded at five stations along a profile. The modeling of the Malibu earthquake results in a layered one-dimensional model representing 6.5 km of layered sediment underlain by a high-velocity basement. Direct arrivals, basin reflected phases, and multiple reverberations are modeled fairly well by this one-dimensional model. The downhole array data in the Baldwin Hills show a significant near-surface amplification that can be modeled by very low-velocity near-surface materials. A series of aftershocks of the Whittier Narrows earthquake recorded at close distances at temporary recording sites shows a wide variation in peak accelerations due both to radiation pattern and propagation effects. The effect of lateral heterogeneity is evident in the travel time, where stations within the basin show later arrival times than those away from the basin for the same epicentral distance. Seismograms recorded at different sites show variation in waveforms due to multi-pathing of rays. We use such triplicated arrivals to constrain the structure of different interfaces. Using these criteria and the synthetic seismograms calculated by ray theory and finite difference methods, we have been able to model the tangential seismograms due to two of these events recorded at five stations along a two-dimensional profile. All three modeling exercises helped us understand wave propagation in the basin environment. A basin-reflected phase was identified in the seismogram from the Malibu earthquake, which was used to derive an effective depth of the basement. Near-surface amplification of the waves observed in the downhole data could be explained by constructive interference of the multiply reflected waves through the thin near-surface low-velocity layer. Similarly, site-dependent variation of waveform and travel time shown by the seismograms from the aftershocks of the Whittier Narrows, California, earthquake could be accounted for when a laterally varying structure was used.
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Herrmann, Robert B. "Surface-wave studies of some South Carolina earthquakes." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 76, no. 1 (February 1, 1986): 111–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/bssa0760010111.
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Abstract Long-period surface waves generated by three South Carolina earthquakes are used to infer focal mechanisms and seismic moments of the events. The 3 February 1972 Bowman, South Carolina, earthquake is found to be shallow and to require an almost strike-slip focal mechanism with pressure axes trending northeast-southwest. The 22 November 1974 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquake was smaller and was recorded by only three long-period WWSSN stations. For this earthquake, only an estimate of the seismic moment and focal depth were possible. The focal mechanism of the 2 August 1974 Clarkhill reservoir earthquake indicated motion on a northwest striking almost vertical dip-slip fault. In order to specify preferred motions on the nodal planes, full waveform modeling of the long-period traces at ATL was necessary. The results are not without ambiguity, but represent the best estimates of source parameters for these earthquakes.
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Lu, Yin, Nadav Wetzler, Nicolas Waldmann, Amotz Agnon, Glenn P. Biasi, and Shmuel Marco. "A 220,000-year-long continuous large earthquake record on a slow-slipping plate boundary." Science Advances 6, no. 48 (November 2020): eaba4170. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aba4170.
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Large earthquakes (magnitude ≥ 7.0) are rare, especially along slow-slipping plate boundaries. Lack of large earthquakes in the instrumental record enlarges uncertainty of the recurrence time; the recurrence of large earthquakes is generally determined by extrapolation according to a magnitude-frequency relation. We enhance the seismological catalog of the Dead Sea Fault Zone by including a 220,000-year-long continuous large earthquake record based on seismites from the Dead Sea center. We constrain seismic shaking intensities via computational fluid dynamics modeling and invert them for earthquake magnitude. Our analysis shows that the recurrence time of large earthquakes follows a power-law distribution, with a mean of 1400 ± 160 years. This mean recurrence is notable shorter than the previous estimate of 11,000 years for the past 40,000 years. Our unique record confirms a clustered earthquake recurrence pattern and a group-fault temporal clustering model, and reveals an unexpectedly high seismicity rate on a slow-slipping plate boundary.
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Sánchez-Silva, M., D. I. Blockley, and C. A. Taylor. "Uncertainty Modeling of Earthquake Hazards." Computer-Aided Civil and Infrastructure Engineering 11, no. 2 (March 1996): 99–114. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8667.1996.tb00314.x.
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Wright, Francis. "Earthquake modeling: Caustics in seismology." Nature 319, no. 6056 (February 1986): 720–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/319720a0.
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Lee, En-Jui, Wu-Yu Liao, Dawei Mu, Wei Wang, and Po Chen. "GPU-Accelerated Automatic Microseismic Monitoring Algorithm (GAMMA) and Its Application to the 2019 Ridgecrest Earthquake Sequence." Seismological Research Letters 91, no. 4 (March 18, 2020): 2062–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0220190323.
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Abstract Foreshocks and/or aftershocks play critical roles in improving our understanding of the processes of faulting, such as nucleation of earthquakes, earthquake triggering, and postseismic deformation. A rapid and accurate earthquake detection and location algorithm can provide timely information of seismic activities, thereby benefitting our understanding of physical mechanisms of faulting and seismic hazard assessment. We have developed a graphic processing unit (GPU)-accelerated automatic microseismic monitoring algorithm (GAMMA) for accurate and near real-time detection and location of earthquakes. GAMMA utilizes methods based on backprojection to automatically detect potential earthquakes, and then the waveforms of qualified earthquakes are selected as templates when searching for small earthquakes in continuous recordings using the template-matching algorithm. The use of GPUs has substantially accelerated the calculations and has made GAMMA capable of (near-)real-time earthquake monitoring. We have successfully applied GAMMA to the 2019 Ridgecrest earthquake sequence in southern California. The number of earthquakes detected by GAMMA is more than 21 times that documented in the regional catalog. The more complete catalog determined by GAMMA may provide crucial information for improving our understanding of the physical mechanisms of faulting and also supply useful constraints for a variety of types of studies, including dynamic rupture simulations and crustal deformation modeling.
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Gong, Li-Wen, Huai Zhang, Shi Chen, and Li-Juan Chen. "Three-Dimensional Modeling of the Xichang Crust in Sichuan, China by Machine Learning." Applied Sciences 12, no. 6 (March 14, 2022): 2955. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app12062955.
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Seismicity and distribution of earthquakes can provide active fault structural information on the crust at a regional scale. The morphology of faults can be derived from the epicentral distribution of micro-earthquakes. In this study, we combined both the relocated earthquake catalogue and related preliminary geophysical information for 3D modeling of the crust in the Xichang area, Sichuan province, China. The fault morphology and deep crustal structure were automatically extracted by the machine learning approach, such as the supervised classification and cluster analysis methods. This new 3D crustal model includes the seismic velocity distribution, fault planes in 3D and 3D seismicity. There are many earthquake clusters located in the folded basement and low-velocity zone. Our model revealed the topological relation between the folded basement and faults. Our work show the crustal model derived is supported by the earthquake clusters which in turn controls the morphological characteristics of the crystalline basement in this area. Our use of machine learning techniques can not only be used to predict the refined fault geometry, but also to combine the seismic velocity structure with the known geological information. This 3D crustal model can also be used for geodynamic analysis and simulation of strong motionseismic waves.
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Rodriguez Padilla, Alba M., Michael E. Oskin, Thomas K. Rockwell, Irina Delusina, and Drake M. Singleton. "Joint earthquake ruptures of the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults, California, USA." Geology 50, no. 4 (December 7, 2021): 387–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/g49415.1.
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Abstract Large, multi-fault earthquakes increase the threat of strong ground shaking and reshape the probability of future events across a system of faults. Fault junctions act as conditional barriers, or earthquake gates, that stop most earthquakes but permit junction-spanning events when stress conditions are favorable. Constraining the physical conditions that favor multi-fault earthquakes requires information on the frequency of isolated events versus events that activate faults through the junction. Measuring this frequency is challenging because dating uncertainties limit correlation of paleoseismic events at different faults, requiring a direct approach to measuring rupture through an earthquake gate. We show through documentation and finite-element modeling of secondary fault slip that co-rupture of the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults (California, USA) through the Cajon Pass earthquake gate occurred at least three times in the past 2000 yr, most recently in the historic 1812 CE earthquake. Our models show that gate-breaching events taper steeply and halt abruptly as they transfer slip between faults. Comparison to independent chronologies shows that 20%–23% of earthquakes on the San Andreas and the San Jacinto faults are co-ruptures through Cajon Pass.
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Xu, Zhen, Huazhen Zhang, Wei Wei, and Zhebiao Yang. "Virtual Scene Construction for Seismic Damage of Building Ceilings and Furniture." Applied Sciences 9, no. 17 (August 22, 2019): 3465. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app9173465.
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A valid seismic damage scene for indoor nonstructural components is critical for virtual earthquake safety drills which can teach occupants how to survive in earthquakes. A virtual scene construction method for the seismic damage of suspended ceilings and moveable furniture is proposed based on FEMA P-58 and a physics engine. First, a modeling framework is designed based on building information modeling (BIM) to create consistent structural and scene models for the subsequent structural time-history analysis (THA) and scene construction. Subsequently, FEMA P-58 is employed to determine the damage states of nonstructural components based on the results of the THA. Finally, the physical models on the movements of the damaged components are designed using a physics engine and are also validated through the experiments such as an existing shaking table test. Considering a six-story building as a case study, a virtual earthquake scene of the indoor nonstructural components is constructed and applied in an earthquake safety drill. The outcome of this study provides well-founded scenes of the seismic damage to indoor nonstructural components for performing virtual earthquake safety drills.
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Basharat, Mubeen ul, Junaid Ali Khan, Umer Khalil, Aqil Tariq, Bilal Aslam, and Qingting Li. "Ensuring Earthquake-Proof Development in a Swiftly Developing Region through Neural Network Modeling of Earthquakes Using Nonlinear Spatial Variables." Buildings 12, no. 10 (October 17, 2022): 1713. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/buildings12101713.
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Northern Pakistan, the center of major construction projects due to the commencement of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor, is among the most earthquake-prone regions globally owing to its tectonic settings. The area has experienced several devastating earthquakes in the past, and these earthquakes pose a severe threat to infrastructure and life. Several researchers have previously utilized advanced tools such as Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) algorithms for earthquake predictions. This technological advancement helps with construction innovation, for instance, by designing earthquake-proof buildings. However, previous studies have focused mainly on temporal rather than spatial variables. The present study examines the impact of spatial variables to assess the performance of the different ML and DL algorithms for predicting the magnitude of short-term future earthquakes in North Pakistan. Two ML methods, namely Modular Neural Network (MNN) and Shallow Neural Network (SNN), and two DL methods, namely Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and Deep Neural Network (DNN) algorithms, were used to meet the research objectives. The performance of the techniques was assessed using statistical measures, including accuracy, information gain analysis, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. These metrics were used to evaluate the impact of including a new variable, Fault Density (FD), and the standard seismic variables in the predictions. The performance of the proposed models was examined for different patterns of variables and different classes of earthquakes. The accuracy of the models for the training data ranged from 73% to 89%, and the accuracy for the testing data ranged from 64% to 85%. The analysis outcomes demonstrated an improved performance when using an additional variable of FD for the earthquakes of low and high magnitudes, whereas the performance was less for moderate-magnitude earthquakes. DNN, and SNN models, performed relatively better than other models. The results provide valuable insights about the influence of the spatial variable. The outcome of the present study adds to the existing pool of knowledge about earthquake prediction, fostering a safer and more secure regional development plan involving innovative construction.
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Petrov, I. B., V. I. Golubev, K. A. Beklemisheva, and A. V. Vasukov. "Numerical modeling of earthquake impact on engineering structures on Arctic shelf." Computational Mathematics and Information Technologies 2 (2017): 163–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.23947/2587-8999-2017-2-163-168.
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Riquelme, Sebastián, and Mauricio Fuentes. "Tsunami Efficiency Due to Very Slow Earthquakes." Seismological Research Letters 92, no. 5 (April 7, 2021): 2998–3006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0220200198.
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Abstract Often, tsunami “sources” have been treated as a quasistatic problem. Initial studies have demonstrated that, for earthquake rupture velocities in the span of 1.5–3 km/s, the kinematic and static part of the tsunami can be treated separately. However, very slow earthquake rupture velocities in the span of 0.1–1 km/s have not been included in tsunami analytical or numerical modeling. Here, we calculated the tsunami efficiency, extending Kajiura’s definition for different models. We demonstrated that rupture velocity cannot be neglected for very slow events, that is, rupture velocities slower than 0.5 km/s. We also examined the relation of magnitude, earthquake rupture velocity, and tsunami amplitude to the efficiency of very slow tsunamigenic earthquakes. Hypothetical megathrust earthquakes (Mw>8.5) with very slow rupture velocities amplify energy from 10 to 60 times larger than moderate to large earthquakes (7.0<Mw<8.5) in the direction of rupture propagation.
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Desroches, Reginald, and Gregory L. Fenves. "Evaluation of Recorded Earthquake Response of a Curved Highway Bridge." Earthquake Spectra 13, no. 3 (August 1997): 363–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.1585953.
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The Landers and Big Bear earthquakes on June 18, 1992, triggered a strong motion instrumentation network on a curved highway bridge. System identification of the processed acceleration records show the vibration period of the fundamental mode lengthened from 1.56 sec to 1.75 sec between the two earthquakes. A three-dimensional, calibrated model of the bridge is used to investigate the effect of modeling assumptions on the earthquake response of the structure. Linear models, commonly used in design, adequately bound the earthquake response of the bridge. However, the linear models do not provide an upper bound on the forces in all the columns. Longitudinal hinge restrainers have minimal effect on the earthquake response. The non-uniform input motion recorded at four support points has a moderate effect on the response when compared with the assumption of uniform free-field motion.
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Kawamoto, Satoshi, Naofumi Takamatsu, Satoshi Abe, Kohei Miyagawa, Yusaku Ohta, Masaru Todoriki, and Takuya Nishimura. "Real-Time GNSS Analysis System REGARD: An Overview and Recent Results." Journal of Disaster Research 13, no. 3 (June 1, 2018): 440–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2018.p0440.
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A new real-time Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) analysis system named REGARD has been launched to provide finite-fault models for large earthquakes with magnitudes =8 in real time. The finite-fault estimates using GNSS positioning are free from saturation problems and are very robust for modeling large earthquakes. The REGARD system processes ∼1,200 stations of GEONET, and event detection and finite-fault model inversion routines are implemented. Tests for the case of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (Mw9.0) and a simulated Nankai Trough earthquake (Mw8.7) show that the REGARD system can provide reliable finite-fault models for large earthquakes. Furthermore, operational real-time results for the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake (Mj7.3) demonstrated the capability of this system to model inland earthquakes. These results imply the possibility of improving tsunami simulations and/or hazard information using rapid finite-fault models. Efforts to integrate real-time GNSS with current warning systems are currently being implemented around the world, and the REGARD system will join these systems in the near future.
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Erickson, Brittany A., Junle Jiang, Michael Barall, Nadia Lapusta, Eric M. Dunham, Ruth Harris, Lauren S. Abrahams, et al. "The Community Code Verification Exercise for Simulating Sequences of Earthquakes and Aseismic Slip (SEAS)." Seismological Research Letters 91, no. 2A (January 29, 2020): 874–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0220190248.
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Abstract Numerical simulations of sequences of earthquakes and aseismic slip (SEAS) have made great progress over past decades to address important questions in earthquake physics. However, significant challenges in SEAS modeling remain in resolving multiscale interactions between earthquake nucleation, dynamic rupture, and aseismic slip, and understanding physical factors controlling observables such as seismicity and ground deformation. The increasing complexity of SEAS modeling calls for extensive efforts to verify codes and advance these simulations with rigor, reproducibility, and broadened impact. In 2018, we initiated a community code-verification exercise for SEAS simulations, supported by the Southern California Earthquake Center. Here, we report the findings from our first two benchmark problems (BP1 and BP2), designed to verify different computational methods in solving a mathematically well-defined, basic faulting problem. We consider a 2D antiplane problem, with a 1D planar vertical strike-slip fault obeying rate-and-state friction, embedded in a 2D homogeneous, linear elastic half-space. Sequences of quasi-dynamic earthquakes with periodic occurrences (BP1) or bimodal sizes (BP2) and their interactions with aseismic slip are simulated. The comparison of results from 11 groups using different numerical methods show excellent agreements in long-term and coseismic fault behavior. In BP1, we found that truncated domain boundaries influence interseismic stressing, earthquake recurrence, and coseismic rupture, and that model agreement is only achieved with sufficiently large domain sizes. In BP2, we found that complexity of fault behavior depends on how well physical length scales related to spontaneous nucleation and rupture propagation are resolved. Poor numerical resolution can result in artificial complexity, impacting simulation results that are of potential interest for characterizing seismic hazard such as earthquake size distributions, moment release, and recurrence times. These results inform the development of more advanced SEAS models, contributing to our further understanding of earthquake system dynamics.
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Kiyashchenko, D., and V. Troyan. "The pecularities of shear crack pre-rupture evolution and distribution of seismicity before strong earthquakes." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 1, no. 3 (September 30, 2001): 145–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-1-145-2001.
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Abstract. Several methods are presently suggested for investigating pre-earthquake evolution of the regions of high tectonic activity based on analysis of the seismicity spatial distribution. Some precursor signatures are detected before strong earthquakes: decrease in fractal dimension of the continuum of earthquake epicenters, cluster formation, concentration of seismic events near one of the nodal planes of the future earthquake, and others. In the present paper, it is shown that such peculiarities are typical of the evolution of the shear crack network under external stresses in elastic bodies with inhomogeneous distribution of strength. The results of computer modeling of crack network evolution are presented. It is shown that variations of the fractal dimension of the earthquake epicenters’ continuum and other precursor signatures contain information about the evolution of the destruction process towards the main rupture.
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Morozov, V. N., and A. I. Manevich. "Modeling of the stress-strain state in the earthquake epicenter area (Kumamoto Earthquake, Japan), 16.04.2016 M 7.3." Proceedings of higher educational establishments. Geology and Exploration, no. 6 (December 28, 2017): 48–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.32454/0016-7762-2017-6-48-54.
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On the 16th of April, 2016, a strong earthquake with M 7,3 occurred in the Kumamoto prefecture (Kyushu, Japan). This earthquake is the strongest in the last 30 years in this area. For a day before the main shock, two foreshocks with M 6,4 were registered. For seven days after the main shock, aftershocks activity spread to the north-east and south-west, most of the hypocentres of the aftershocks with M 6,4 were localized within the seismogenic layer in the depth interval from 5 to 10 km. The authors have modeled a stress-strain state (SSS) of the epicentral area be fore the earthquake and after it (after the formation of the main fault). For this purpose, a software package is used, that allows 2-D formulation (plane strain condition), for modeling SSS block heterogeneous geological environment, disrupted by a system of tectonic faults. The faults are modeled in the form of extended zones of the dispersed geomaterial, which elastic modulus are significantly lower than the elastic modulus of the environmental media. A structural-tectonic scheme of the Kumamoto earthquake area is used. An analysis of the results of SSS modeling has been done for the area 30x40 km before and after the earthquake. It is shown that the area and magnitude of the stress intensity in anomalous zones are the predictive signs of the location and intensity of a possible strong crustal earthquake, and the vector of the rapid decrease in the potential energy of deformation could be a guide for the most probable direction of tectonic rupture during a crustal earthquake. The results received can be useful in a deterministic approach to seismic hazard assessment and carrying out the geophysical observations focused on the forecast of the strong crustal earthquakes in the continental areas.
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Pilger, Christoph, Peter Gaebler, Lars Ceranna, Alexis Le Pichon, Julien Vergoz, Anna Perttu, Dorianne Tailpied, and Benoit Taisne. "Infrasound and seismoacoustic signatures of the 28 September 2018 Sulawesi super-shear earthquake." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 19, no. 12 (December 13, 2019): 2811–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-19-2811-2019.
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Abstract. A magnitude 7.5 earthquake occurred on 28 September 2018 at 10:02:43 UTC near the city of Palu on the Indonesian island of Sulawesi. It was a shallow, strike-slip earthquake with a rupture extending to a length of about 150 km and reaching the surface. Moreover, this earthquake was identified as one of very few events having a super-shear rupture speed. Clear and long-lasting infrasound signatures related to this event were observed by four infrasound arrays of the International Monitoring System of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization as well as by one national infrasound station in Singapore. Although these infrasound stations SING (Singapore), I39PW (Palau), I07AU (Australia), I40PG (Papua New Guinea) and I30JP (Japan) are located at large distances of between 1800 and 4500 km from the earthquake's epicentral region, the observed infrasound signals associated with this event were intense, including both seismic and acoustic arrivals. A detailed study of the event-related infrasound observations and the potential infrasound generation mechanisms is presented, covering range-dependent infrasound transmission loss and propagation modeling and characterization of the atmospheric background conditions, as well as identification of the regions of seismoacoustic activity by applying a back-projection method from the infrasound receivers to potential source regions. This back projection of infrasonic arrivals allows one to estimate that the main infrasound source region for the Sulawesi earthquake is related to the extended rupture zone and the nearby topography. This estimation and a comparison to other super-shear as well as large regional earthquakes identify no clear connection between the earthquake's super-shear nature and the strong infrasound emission.
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Cao, Zelin, Xiaxin Tao, Zhengru Tao, and Aiping Tang. "Kinematic Source Modeling for the Synthesis of Broadband Ground Motion Using the f‐k Approach." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 109, no. 5 (July 23, 2019): 1738–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120180294.
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Abstract A procedure for building a kinematic source model is proposed in this article for the synthesis of broadband ground motion based on the frequency–wavenumber Green’s function. The spatial distribution of slip on the rupture plane is generated by combining asperity slip with random slip. A set of scaling laws recently updated for the global and local parameters of seismic sources is adopted. To characterize the temporal evolution of slip on the rupture plane, different rupture velocities, and rise times are first generated by considering the correlation with slip, and a source time function obtained by rupture dynamics is selected for each subsource. Then, the entire rupture process is set as the object to jointly determine the rise time and rupture velocity for a given slip distribution under the selection criterion that the entire rupture process should radiate the closest seismic energy to the expected energy. To reduce uncertainty, 30 spatiotemporal rupture processes for an earthquake scenario are realized to select a mean source model. To demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed source modeling approach, two California earthquakes, the Whittier Narrows earthquake and the Loma Prieta earthquake, are chosen as case studies. The performance of the obtained source models shows that our modeling approach is advantageous for estimating the size of the rupture plane, emphasizing the effect of asperity, and considering the correlation between temporal rupture parameters and slip. The bias values between the observed and synthetic pseudospectral accelerations are relatively small compared to those for the methods on the Southern California Earthquake Center broadband platform. The synthetics are further compared with the estimates from regional ground‐motion prediction equations for four scenario earthquakes with moment magnitudes of 6.0, 6.5, 7.0, and 7.5. Finally, the sensitivity of the synthetic motion to various rupture parameters is analyzed.
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SATO, Tadanobu, Ikumasa YOSHIDA, and Yoshinobu OSHIMA. "ON MODELING OF EARTHQUAKE MOTION PHASE." Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers, Ser. A1 (Structural Engineering ^|^ Earthquake Engineering (SE/EE)) 70, no. 4 (2014): I_273—I_284. http://dx.doi.org/10.2208/jscejseee.70.i_273.
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Arşık, İdil, and F. Sibel Salman. "Modeling Earthquake Vulnerability of Highway Networks." Electronic Notes in Discrete Mathematics 41 (June 2013): 319–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.endm.2013.05.108.
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Febres Cedillo, H. E., and M. Asghar Bhatti. "Parametric modeling of earthquake response spectra." Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering 10, no. 6 (August 1991): 291–302. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0267-7261(91)90046-3.
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Wimpenny, Sam, and C. Scott Watson. "gWFM: A Global Catalog of Moderate-Magnitude Earthquakes Studied Using Teleseismic Body Waves." Seismological Research Letters 92, no. 1 (December 9, 2020): 212–26. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0220200218.
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Abstract We present a compilation of 2131 high-fidelity mechanisms and centroid depths of moderate-magnitude earthquakes derived using synthetic body-waveform modeling (the Global Waveform-Modelled Earthquake Catalog v1.0—gWFM), which can be visualized and downloaded online (see Data and Resources). In this article, we describe the methods used to construct the gWFM and present a comparison between the earthquake depths and focal mechanisms in the gWFM with those derived by the International Seismological Centre, Global Centroid Moment Tensor (Global CMT) project, and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) W-phase, as well as 60 events studied using geodesy. We find that 20%–30% of the earthquakes in routine global catalogs have depths that differ by more than 10 km from those in the gWFM. Shallow-crustal earthquakes of Mw 5–6 are typically the worst located in depth by routine catalogs. Over 90% of the earthquakes in the gWFM are within ±15° in strike, ±5° in dip, and ±15° in rake of the Global CMT and USGS W-phase best double-couple moment tensor solutions. However, the mechanisms of shallow Mw 5–6 earthquakes in the routine catalogs can be inaccurate, due to the well-known insensitivity of long-period surface waves to the vertical dip-slip components of the moment tensor. The gWFM is an archive of well-constrained earthquake source parameters, though it will continue to update as new earthquake mechanisms and depths are published, thereby remaining an up-to-date research tool.
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Gul, Muhammet, and Ali Fuat Guneri. "Are Emergency Departments in Istanbul Ready for the Earthquakes? Past Experience and Suggestions for Future Preparedness from Employees’ Viewpoint and the Literature." Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management 12, no. 4 (December 1, 2015): 967–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/jhsem-2014-0114.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract This paper aims to review what is known about the preparedness of hospital emergency departments (EDs) for a possible major earthquake expected in the near future in Istanbul and reveal the past experience and future plans from employees’ viewpoints and, as well as from the related literature. For this purpose, potential effects of the earthquakes on ED operations, patient flow, and performance are discussed considering the statistical data of recent earthquakes in Turkey, a comprehensive report on the disaster preparedness of Istanbul and, one to one interviews with the earthquake experienced ED medical staff. In particular, issues on patient surge, triage and registration, communication, patient flow and transportation and, lack of enough resources and space to treat are presented as the main challenges. According to the viewpoints obtained from various sources, EDs in Istanbul are not ready to meet the needs caused by a major earthquake. It is proposed that operational research (OR) techniques can be useful to overcome these issues such as simulation modeling.