Academic literature on the topic 'Earthquake prediction'

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Journal articles on the topic "Earthquake prediction"

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Wang, Xi, Zeyuan Zhong, Yuechen Yao, et al. "Small Earthquakes Can Help Predict Large Earthquakes: A Machine Learning Perspective." Applied Sciences 13, no. 11 (2023): 6424. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app13116424.

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Earthquake prediction is a long-standing problem in seismology that has garnered attention from the scientific community and the public. Despite ongoing efforts to understand the physical mechanisms of earthquake occurrence, there is no convincing physical or statistical model for predicting large earthquakes. Machine learning methods, such as random forest and long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks, excel at identifying patterns in large-scale databases and offer a potential means to improve earthquake prediction performance. Differing from physical and statistical approaches to earthquake prediction, we explore whether small earthquakes can be used to predict large earthquakes within the framework of machine learning. Specifically, we attempt to answer two questions for a given region: (1) Is there a likelihood of a large earthquake (e.g., M ≥ 6.0) occurring within the next year? (2) What is the maximum magnitude of an earthquake expected to occur within the next year? Our results show that the random forest method performs best in classifying large earthquake occurrences, while the LSTM method provides a rough estimation of earthquake magnitude. We conclude that small earthquakes contain information relevant to predicting future large earthquakes and that machine learning provides a promising avenue for improving the prediction of earthquake occurrences.
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Yu, Huaizhong, Zhengyi Yuan, Chen Yu, et al. "The Medium-to-Short-Term Earthquake Predictions in China and Their Evaluations Based on the R-Score." Seismological Research Letters 93, no. 2A (2021): 840–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0220210081.

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Abstract The earthquake tendency consultations in China, which have been carried out by the China Earthquake Administration for more than 40 yr, are really forward prediction of earthquakes. The results, experiences, and data accumulation are valuable for seismic researches. In this article, the annual, monthly, and weekly predictions produced by the regular earthquake tendency consultations and the rapid postearthquake tendency prediction derived from the irregular ones are presented systematically. In the regular predictions, the areas where earthquakes tend to occur are identified by specific space–time windows. To evaluate the efficiency of the predictions, we apply the R-score method to all the medium-to-short-term efforts. The R-score has been used as a routine tool to test annual predictions in China, in which the hit rate and the percentage of spatial alarms over the whole territory are taken into consideration. Results show that the annual R-scores, during the period of 1990–2020, increased gradually, with the average of 0.293. The examples in 2018 indicate that a considerable proportion of earthquakes with the Ms 5.0 and above were detected by the annual prediction; some earthquakes were detected by the monthly prediction, whereas just only a few earthquakes could be detected by the weekly prediction. The corresponding R-scores are 0.46, 0.11, and 0.002, decreasing obviously with reduction of the prediction time windows, and the smallest one, which is very close to zero, may suggest the minimum time scale for an effective earthquake prediction. We also evaluated efficiency of the irregular predictions by analyzing the practices of 29 Ms≥5.0 earthquakes since January 2019 and found that it is highly possible to do rapid postearthquake tendency prediction in China.
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Gitis, Valery, and Alexander Derendyaev. "A Technology for Seismogenic Process Monitoring and Systematic Earthquake Forecasting." Remote Sensing 15, no. 8 (2023): 2171. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs15082171.

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Earthquakes are a severe natural phenomenon that require continuous monitoring, analysis, and forecasting to mitigate their risks. Seismological data have long been used for this purpose, but geodynamic data from remote sensing of surface displacements have become available in recent decades. In this paper, we present a novel information technology for monitoring, analyzing seismogenic fields, and predicting earthquakes using Earth remote sensing data presented as a time series of surface displacement points for systematic regional earthquake prediction. We demonstrate, for the first time, the successful application of this technology and discuss the method of the minimum area of alarm, which was developed for machine learning and systematic earthquake prediction, as well as the architecture and tools of the GIS platform. Our technology is implemented as a network platform consisting of two GISs. The first GIS automatically loads earthquake catalog data and GPS time series, calculates spatiotemporal fields, performs systematic earthquake prediction in multiple seismically active regions, and provides intuitive mapping tools to analyze seismic processes. The second GIS is designed for scientific research of spatiotemporal processes, including those related to earthquake forecasting. We demonstrate the effectiveness of platform analysis tools that are intuitive and accessible to a wide range of users in solving problems of systematic earthquake prediction. Additionally, we provide examples of scientific research on earthquake prediction using the second GIS, including the effectiveness of using GPS data for forecasting earthquakes in California, estimating the density fields of earthquake epicenters using the adaptive weighted smoothing (AWS) method for predicting earthquakes in Kamchatka, and studying earthquake forecasts in the island part of the territory of Japan using the earthquake catalog and GPS. Our examples demonstrate that the method of the minimum area of alarm used for machine learning is effective for forecasting both catalog and remote sensing data.
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Badr Jarah, Nada, Kadhim Mahdi Hashim, and Abbas Hanon Hassin. "Earthquake prediction in Iraq using machine learning techniques." Indonesian Journal of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science 29, no. 1 (2022): 322. http://dx.doi.org/10.11591/ijeecs.v29.i1.pp322-329.

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This study deals with addressing the scientific achievements and the history of earthquake prediction in Iraq, in addition to attempting to discuss the possibility of machine learning to predict earthquakes from a theoretical perspective. The idea of predicting earthquakes gives at least a little time to protect people and reduce earthquake damage. In Iraq, we notice an increase in the occurrence of earthquakes, especially in the southern regions, where they form a strange phenomenon because they are plain areas and far from the seismic fault line, due to the errors that accompany excessive oil extraction and in random and unstudied ways, and geological studies raise fears in predicting an increase in earthquakes for the coming years. We have explored the possibility of applying machine learning technology to predict earthquakes in Iraq, and follow-up recording of tremors at different stations in Iraq through three centers of seismic sensor networks. In addition to the earthquake catalog in Iraq (1900-2019). This study may pave the way for more research to develop an integrated and accurate earthquake prediction system using machine-learning technologies.
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Anderson, John G., Steven G. Wesnousky, and Mark W. Stirling. "Earthquake size as a function of fault slip rate." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 86, no. 3 (1996): 683–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/bssa0860030683.

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Abstract Estimates of the potential size of earthquakes on mapped active faults are generally based on regressions of earthquake magnitude (Mw) versus length (L) of fault rupture for historical earthqukes. The fault slip rate (S) has been ignored in formal prediction equations, but more accurate predictions of future earthquake magnitudes on mapped faults may be obtained when it is included. A least-squares regression for a data set of 43 earthquakes occurring on faults for which slip rates are reported shows Mw = 5.12 + 1.16 log L − 0.20 log S, where L is in units of Km and S is in units of mm/yr. The result indicates that the largest earthquakes will occur on the slowest slipping faults if the rupture length is held constant.
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Pura, Turgut, Peri Güneş, Ali Güneş, and Ali Alaa Hameed. "Earthquake Prediction for the Düzce Province in the Marmara Region Using Artificial Intelligence." Applied Sciences 13, no. 15 (2023): 8642. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app13158642.

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By definition, an earthquake is a naturally occurring event. This natural event may be a disaster that causes significant damage, loss of life, and other economic effects. The possibility of predicting a natural event such as an earthquake will minimize the negative effects mentioned above. In this study, data collection, processing, and data evaluation regarding earthquakes were carried out. Earthquake forecasting was performed using the RNN (recurrent neural network) method. This study was carried out using seismic data with a magnitude of 3.0 and above of the Düzce Province between 1990 and 2022. In order to increase the learning potential of the method, the b and d values of earthquakes were calculated. The detection of earthquakes within a specific time interval in the Marmara region of Turkey, the classification of earthquake-related seismic data using artificial neural networks, and the generation of predictions for the future highlight the importance of this study. Our results demonstrated that the prediction performance could be significantly improved by incorporating the b and d coefficients of earthquakes, as well as the data regarding the distance between the Moon and the Earth, along with the use of recurrent neural networks (RNNs).
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Tehseen, Rabia, Muhammad Shoaib Farooq, and Adnan Abid. "Fuzzy Expert System for Earthquake Prediction in Western Himalayan Range." Elektronika ir Elektrotechnika 26, no. 3 (2020): 4–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.5755/j01.eie.26.3.25744.

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Fuzzy Expert System (FES) with application to earthquake prediction has been presented to reproduce the performance of a human expert in earthquake prediction using expert systems. This research aims to predict future earthquakes having a magnitude 5.5 or greater. Previous earthquake data from 2000 to 2019 have been collected for this purpose. Since the earthquake data for the specified region have been reported on different magnitude scales, suitable relationships were determined to obtain uniform data. The uniform data have been used to calculate seismicity indicators according to the guidelines provided by Gutenberg-Richter’s scale for quantitative determination of earthquake features. The relationships among these seismic indicators have been used by the human expert to set the rule base of Fuzzy expert system. These rules have been mathematically validated and tested on instrumentally recorded earthquake data. The results obtained from the proposed FES presented 47 % accuracy in predicting future earthquakes that may occur in the 100 km radial area from 34.708 ° N, 72.5478 ° E.
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Tehseen, Rabia, Muhammad Shoaib Farooq, and Adnan Abid. "Earthquake Prediction Using Expert Systems: A Systematic Mapping Study." Sustainability 12, no. 6 (2020): 2420. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12062420.

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Earthquake is one of the most hazardous natural calamity. Many algorithms have been proposed for earthquake prediction using expert systems (ES). We aim to identify and compare methods, models, frameworks, and tools used to forecast earthquakes using different parameters. We have conducted a systematic mapping study based upon 70 systematically selected high quality peer reviewed research articles involving ES for earthquake prediction, published between January 2010 and January 2020.To the best of our knowledge, there is no recent study that provides a comprehensive survey of this research area. The analysis shows that most of the proposed models have attempted long term predictions about time, intensity, and location of future earthquakes. The article discusses different variants of rule-based, fuzzy, and machine learning based expert systems for earthquake prediction. Moreover, the discussion covers regional and global seismic data sets used, tools employed, to predict earth quake for different geographical regions. Bibliometric and meta-information based analysis has been performed by classifying the articles according to research type, empirical type, approach, target area, and system specific parameters. Lastly, it also presents a taxonomy of earthquake prediction approaches, and research evolution during the last decade.
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Badr Jarah, Nada, Abbas H. Hassin Alasadi, and Kadhim Mahdi Hashim. "Earthquake prediction technique: a comparative study." IAES International Journal of Artificial Intelligence (IJ-AI) 12, no. 3 (2023): 1026. http://dx.doi.org/10.11591/ijai.v12.i3.pp1026-1032.

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Earthquakes are one of the most dangerous natural disasters facing humans because of their occurrence without warning and their impact on their lives and property. In addition, predicting seismic movement is one of the main research topics in seismic disaster prevention. In geological studies, scientists can predict and know the locations of earthquakes in the long term. Therefore, about 80% of the major global earthquakes lie along the Pacific Ring belt, known as the Ring of Fire. Machine learning methods have also been used for short-term earthquake prediction, and studies have applied the random forest method to determine the factors that precede earthquakes. The machine learning method was based on various decision trees, each of which predicted the time to the nearest oscillation. The third group of scientists used the hybrid prediction method, which combines machine learning and geological studies. This research deals with a review of most of the geological studies and machine learning techniques applied to earthquake data sets, which showed a total lack of prediction of potential earthquakes through one approach, so studies designed by geologists were combined with machine learning.
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Huang, Ying, Peimin Zhu, and Shaodong Li. "Feasibility Study on Earthquake Prediction Based on Impending Geomagnetic Anomalies." Applied Sciences 14, no. 1 (2023): 263. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app14010263.

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By deploying a magnetic monitoring network in the earthquake-prone areas of Sichuan, China, and conducting long-term observations, processing, and analysis of real-time geomagnetic data, it can be observed that the pre-earthquake geomagnetic anomalies are highly correlated with the occurrence time of earthquakes. We propose a novel algorithm that obtains a new quantity by accumulating geomagnetic anomaly energy to eliminate external environmental interference and take its gradient as a measure for predicting the occurrence time of an earthquake. Through observations of a large amount of geomagnetic data, it is confirmed that the proposed method can be used to predict the occurrence time of earthquakes with about 75% to 85% accuracy. Conclusions: The geomagnetic anomaly phenomenon can be accurately observed and recorded before an impending earthquake, and it has been confirmed by data that using this observation makes imminent earthquake prediction a practical prediction method.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Earthquake prediction"

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Bramlet, John. "Earthquake prediction and earthquake damage prediction /." Connect to resource, 1996. http://hdl.handle.net/1811/31764.

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Weatherley, Dion Kent. "Investigations of automaton earthquake models : implications for seismicity and earthquake forecasting /." St. Lucia, Qld, 2002. http://www.library.uq.edu.au/pdfserve.php?image=thesisabs/absthe16401.pdf.

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Sheikh, Md Neaz. "Simplified analysis of earthquake site response with particular application to low and moderate seismicity regions." Thesis, Hong Kong : University of Hong Kong, 2001. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B2353008x.

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Kumar, Senthil. "Earthquake size, recurrence and rupture mechanics of large surface-rupture earthquakes along the Himalayan Frontal Thrust of India /." abstract and full text PDF (free order & download UNR users only), 2005. http://0-wwwlib.umi.com.innopac.library.unr.edu/dissertations/fullcit/3209126.

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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Nevada, Reno, 2005.<br>"August 2005." Includes bibliographical references. Online version available on the World Wide Web. Library also has microfilm. Ann Arbor, Mich. : ProQuest Information and Learning Company, [2005]. 1 microfilm reel ; 35 mm.
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Creamer, Frederic Harold. "The method to predict a large earthquake in an aftershock sequence." Thesis, Georgia Institute of Technology, 1987. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/25985.

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Stark, Colin Peter. "The influence of active extensional tectonics on patterns of fluid flow." Thesis, University of Leeds, 1991. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.305934.

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Akbar, Siddiq-A. "Urban housing in seismic areas : a computerised methodology for evaluating strategies for risk mitigation." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1989. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.306466.

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Malushte, Sanjeev R. "Prediction of seismic design response spectra using ground characteristics." Thesis, Virginia Tech, 1987. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/45802.

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<p>The available earthquake records are classified into five groups according to their site stiffness and epicentral distance as the grouping parameters. For the groups thus defined, normalized response spectra are obtained for single-degree-ofâ freedom and massless oscillators. The effectiveness of the grouping scheme is examined by studying the variance of response quantities within each group. The implicit parameters of average frequency and significant duration are obtained for each group and their effect on the response spectra is studied. Correlation analyses between various ground motion characteristics such as peak displacement, velocity, acceleration and root mean square acceleration are carried out for each group.</p> <p>Smoothed design spectra for relative and pseudo velocities and relative acceleration responses of single degree of freedom oscillators and the velocity and acceleration responses of massless oscillators are proposed for each group. Methods to predict relative velocity and relative acceleration spectra directly from the pseudo velocity spectra are presented. It is shown that the relative spectra can be reliably estimated from the pseudo spectra. The site dependent design spectra are defined for a wide range of oscillator periods and damping ratios.</p><br>Master of Science
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Neupane, Ganesh Prasad. "Comparison of Natural and Predicted Earthquake Occurrence in Seismologically Active Areas for Determination of Statistical Significance." Bowling Green, Ohio : Bowling Green State University, 2008. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc%5Fnum=bgsu1213494761.

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Van, T. Veen Lauren Hannah. "CPT Prediction of Soil Behaviour Type, Liquefaction Potential and Ground Settlement in North-West Christchurch." Thesis, University of Canterbury. Geological Sciences, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10092/10468.

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As a consequence of the 2010 – 2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence, Christchurch experienced widespread liquefaction, vertical settlement and lateral spreading. These geological processes caused extensive damage to both housing and infrastructure, and increased the need for geotechnical investigation substantially. Cone Penetration Testing (CPT) has become the most common method for liquefaction assessment in Christchurch, and issues have been identified with the soil behaviour type, liquefaction potential and vertical settlement estimates, particularly in the north-western suburbs of Christchurch where soils consist mostly of silts, clayey silts and silty clays. The CPT soil behaviour type often appears to over-estimate the fines content within a soil, while the liquefaction potential and vertical settlement are often calculated higher than those measured after the Canterbury earthquake sequence. To investigate these issues, laboratory work was carried out on three adjacent CPT/borehole pairs from the Groynes Park subdivision in northern Christchurch. Boreholes were logged according to NZGS standards, separated into stratigraphic layers, and laboratory tests were conducted on representative samples. Comparison of these results with the CPT soil behaviour types provided valuable information, where 62% of soils on average were specified by the CPT at the Groynes Park subdivision as finer than what was actually present, 20% of soils on average were specified as coarser than what was actually present, and only 18% of soils on average were correctly classified by the CPT. Hence the CPT soil behaviour type is not accurately describing the stratigraphic profile at the Groynes Park subdivision, and it is understood that this is also the case in much of northwest Christchurch where similar soils are found. The computer software CLiq, by GeoLogismiki, uses assessment parameter constants which are able to be adjusted with each CPT file, in an attempt to make each more accurate. These parameter changes can in some cases substantially alter the results for liquefaction analysis. The sensitivity of the overall assessment method, raising and lowering the water table, lowering the soil behaviour type index, Ic, liquefaction cutoff value, the layer detection option, and the weighting factor option, were analysed by comparison with a set of ‘base settings’. The investigation confirmed that liquefaction analysis results can be very sensitive to the parameters selected, and demonstrated the dependency of the soil behaviour type on the soil behaviour type index, as the tested assessment parameters made very little to no changes to the soil behaviour type plots. The soil behaviour type index, Ic, developed by Robertson and Wride (1998) has been used to define a soil’s behaviour type, which is defined according to a set of numerical boundaries. In addition to this, the liquefaction cutoff point is defined as Ic > 2.6, whereby it is assumed that any soils with an Ic value above this will not liquefy due to clay-like tendencies (Robertson and Wride, 1998). The method has been identified in this thesis as being potentially unsuitable for some areas of Christchurch as it was developed for mostly sandy soils. An alternative methodology involving adjustment of the Robertson and Wride (1998) soil behaviour type boundaries is proposed as follows:  Ic < 1.31 – Gravelly sand to dense sand  1.31 < Ic < 1.90 – Sands: clean sand to silty sand  1.90 < Ic < 2.50 – Sand mixtures: silty sand to sandy silt  2.50 < Ic < 3.20 – Silt mixtures: clayey silt to silty clay  3.20 < Ic < 3.60 – Clays: silty clay to clay  Ic > 3.60 – Organics soils: peats. When the soil behaviour type boundary changes were applied to 15 test sites throughout Christchurch, 67% showed an improved change of soil behaviour type, while the remaining 33% remained unchanged, because they consisted almost entirely of sand. Within these boundary changes, the liquefaction cutoff point was moved from Ic > 2.6 to Ic > 2.5 and altered the liquefaction potential and vertical settlement to more realistic ii values. This confirmed that the overall soil behaviour type boundary changes appear to solve both the soil behaviour type issues and reduce the overestimation of liquefaction potential and vertical settlement. This thesis acts as a starting point towards researching the issues discussed. In particular, future work which would be useful includes investigation of the CLiq assessment parameter adjustments, and those which would be most suitable for use in clay-rich soils such as those in Christchurch. In particular consideration of how the water table can be better assessed when perched layers of water exist, with the limitation that only one elevation can be entered into CLiq. Additionally, a useful investigation would be a comparison of the known liquefaction and settlements from the Canterbury earthquake sequence with the liquefaction and settlement potentials calculated in CLiq for equivalent shaking conditions. This would enable the difference between the two to be accurately defined, and a suitable adjustment applied. Finally, inconsistencies between the Laser-Sizer and Hydrometer should be investigated, as the Laser-Sizer under-estimated the fines content by up to one third of the Hydrometer values.
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Books on the topic "Earthquake prediction"

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1946-, Shimazaki K., Stuart W, and International Association of Seimology and Physics of the Earth's Interior., eds. Earthquake prediction. Birkhäuser, 1985.

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Ma, Zongjin, Zhengxiang Fu, Yingzhen Zhang, Chengmin Wang, Guomin Zhang, and Defu Liu. Earthquake Prediction. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1990. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-61269-5.

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Shimazaki, Kunihiko, and William Stuart, eds. Earthquake Prediction. Birkhäuser Basel, 1985. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-0348-6245-5.

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W, Stuart, and Aki Keiiti 1930-, eds. Intermediate-term earthquake prediction. Birkhäuser, 1988.

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Lü, Ta-chiung. Impending earthquake prediction. Jiangsu Science and Technology Publishing House, 1988.

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Gokhberg, Mikhail B. Earthquake prediction: Seismo-electromagnetic phenomena. Gordon and Breach, 1995.

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1939-, Wyss Max, and Dmowska Renata, eds. Earthquake prediction--state of the art. Birkhäuser Verlag, 1997.

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Stefánsson, Ragnar. Advances in Earthquake Prediction. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-47571-2.

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D, Stuart William, and Aki Keiiti, eds. Intermediate-term earthquake prediction. Birkha user, 1988.

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Lomnitz, C. Fundamentals of earthquake prediction. John Wiley & Sons, 1994.

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Book chapters on the topic "Earthquake prediction"

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Ma, Zongjin, Zhengxiang Fu, Yingzhen Zhang, Chengmin Wang, Guomin Zhang, and Defu Liu. "Earthquake Field." In Earthquake Prediction. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1990. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-61269-5_12.

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Ma, Zongjin, Zhengxiang Fu, Yingzhen Zhang, Chengmin Wang, Guomin Zhang, and Defu Liu. "Earthquake Episodes." In Earthquake Prediction. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1990. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-61269-5_13.

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Shimazaki, K., and W. Stuart. "Introduction." In Earthquake Prediction. Birkhäuser Basel, 1985. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-0348-6245-5_1.

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Xu, Shaoxie, and Yufen Liu. "Similarity of Two Liyang Earthquakes." In Earthquake Prediction. Birkhäuser Basel, 1985. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-0348-6245-5_10.

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Qian, J. "Regional Study of the Anomalous Change in Apparent Resistivity Before the Tangshan Earthquake (M = 7.8, 1976) in China." In Earthquake Prediction. Birkhäuser Basel, 1985. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-0348-6245-5_11.

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Gladwin, Michael T. "Piezomagnetic Monitoring in the South Pacific Region." In Earthquake Prediction. Birkhäuser Basel, 1985. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-0348-6245-5_12.

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Shimamura, Hideki, Morio Ino, Hisayoshi Hikawa, and Takaya Iwasaki. "Groundwater Microtemperature in Earthquake Regions." In Earthquake Prediction. Birkhäuser Basel, 1985. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-0348-6245-5_13.

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Talwani, Pradeep, and Steve Acree. "Pore Pressure Diffusion and the Mechanism of Reservoir-Induced Seismicity." In Earthquake Prediction. Birkhäuser Basel, 1985. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-0348-6245-5_14.

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Niazi, Mansour. "Regression Analysis of Reported Earthquake Precursors. I. Presentation of Data." In Earthquake Prediction. Birkhäuser Basel, 1985. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-0348-6245-5_15.

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Feng, De-yi, Jing-ping Gu, Ming-zhou Lin, Shao-xie Xu, and Xue-jun Yu. "Assessment of Earthquake Hazard by Simultaneous Use of the Statistical Method and the Method of Fuzzy Mathematics." In Earthquake Prediction. Birkhäuser Basel, 1985. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-0348-6245-5_16.

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Conference papers on the topic "Earthquake prediction"

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Abdel Khaliq, Lotfy, Sabine Janzen, and Wolfgang Maass. "REAVER: Real-time Earthquake Prediction with Attention-based Sliding-Window Spectrograms." In Thirty-Third International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence {IJCAI-24}. International Joint Conferences on Artificial Intelligence Organization, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.24963/ijcai.2024/988.

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Predicting earthquakes with precision remains an ongoing challenge in earthquake early warning systems (EEWS), that struggle with accuracy and fail to provide timely warnings for impending earthquakes. Recent efforts employing deep learning techniques have shown promise in overcoming these limitations. However, current methods lack the ability to capture subtle frequency changes indicative of seismic activity in real-time, limiting their effectiveness in EEWS. To address this gap, we propose REAVER, a novel approach for real-time prediction of P- and S-waves of earthquakes using attention-based sliding-window spectrograms. REAVER leverages Mel-Spectrogram signal representations to capture temporal frequency changes in seismic signals effectively. By employing an encoder-decoder architecture with attention mechanisms, REAVER accurately predicts the onset of P- and S-waves moments when an earthquake occurs. We benchmark the effectiveness of REAVER, showing its performance in terms of both accuracy and real-time prediction capabilities compared to existing methods. Additionally, we provide a web-based implementation of REAVER, allowing users to monitor seismic activity in real-time and analyze historical earthquake waveforms.
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Saini, Kanika, and Sheetal Kalra. "IoT-based Earthquake Prediction Using Fog and Cloud Computing." In International Conference on Women Researchers in Electronics and Computing. AIJR Publisher, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.21467/proceedings.114.28.

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Earthquakes are severe, unexpected, life-threatening catastrophes that affect all kind of living beings. It frequently results in the loss of life and property. Predicting earthquake is the most important aspect of this field. With the golden age of the Internet of Things (IoT), an innovative new idea is to couple IoT technology with cloud and fog computing to improve the potency and accuracy of earthquake monitoring and forecasting. The embedded IoT-Fog-Cloud layered structure is adopted in this research to predict earthquakes using seismic signal data. This model transfers sensed seismic signals to fog for analysis of seismic data. At fog, Fast Walsh Hadamard transform is used to extract time and frequency domain features and PCA is employed to reduce the dimensionality of feature sets. Random Forest algorithm has been used to classify seismic signals into two different events, viz., earthquake and non-earthquake accompanied by the real-time warnings. When compared to other classification models, implementation findings indicate that the Random Forest classifier achieves high values of specificity, sensitivity, precision, and accuracy with average values of 88.50%, 90.25%, 89.50%, and 92.66%. Hence make this framework more real-time compliant for earthquake prediction.
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Katole, Aditya, Vishakha Batheja, Atharv Deshmukh, Falguni Dekate, and Ashish Soni. "Earthquake Prediction Using QSVM." In 2024 IEEE International Students' Conference on Electrical, Electronics and Computer Science (SCEECS). IEEE, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/sceecs61402.2024.10482242.

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Hayakawa, Masashi. "Earthquake prediction with electromagnetic phenomena." In PROGRESS IN APPLIED MATHEMATICS IN SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING PROCEEDINGS. AIP Publishing LLC, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4941201.

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Kumar, Rakesh, Meenu Gupta, Karan Singh Bedi, Abhishek Upadhyay, and Ahmed J. Obaid. "Earthquake Prediction Using Machine Learning." In 2023 5th International Conference on Advances in Computing, Communication Control and Networking (ICAC3N). IEEE, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icac3n60023.2023.10541482.

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Zama, Shinsaku, Haruki Nishi, Minoru Yamada, and Yoshihiro Hirokawa. "Real-Time Prediction of Liquid Sloshing of Oil Storage Tank Based on Earthquake Early Warning." In ASME 2009 Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference. ASMEDC, 2009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/pvp2009-77599.

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For an efficient patrol to prevent and/or minimize secondary disaster such as fire breakout, diffusion of oil just after an earthquake, we investigated the possibility of real-time prediction of liquid sloshing of oil storage tank based on Earthquake Early Warning (EEW), and also investigated the estimation of volume of overflowed oil from a tank due to large liquid sloshing. As to velocity response spectrum prediction used in predicting liquid sloshing, we constructed the attenuation equation of spectral amplitude for far-field surface waves considering both the seismotectonics and the scaling law of the source characteristics. For estimation of the amount of overflowed oil, we executed experimental studies using a model tank of 7 m in diameter and proposed an empirical equation based on the velocity response spectrum and verified the validity of the formula for the past earthquakes. We applied these equations to the EEW in the 2008 Iwate/Miyagi inland earthquake (M7.2) for Sendai Oil Industrial Complex District, and obtained a good agreement between the predicted and the observed spectrum. Thus, it is expected that the information about the predicted sloshing behavior in a very early stage after a large earthquake using EEW, will be disseminated to person responsible for disaster countermeasures prior to communication congestion.
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Hayakawa, Masashi. "Subionospheric VLF/LF probing of ionospheric perturbations associated with earthquakes (earthquake prediction)." In SICE 2008 - 47th Annual Conference of the Society of Instrument and Control Engineers of Japan. IEEE, 2008. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/sice.2008.4654931.

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O'Neal, Donald W. "EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION BY AEROSPACE STRUCTURAL ANALYSIS." In 67th Annual Southeastern GSA Section Meeting - 2018. Geological Society of America, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/abs/2018se-311715.

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Aydin, Y., and N. Sayil. "Long Term Earthquake Prediction in Turkey." In 8th Congress of the Balkan Geophysical Society. EAGE Publications BV, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.3997/2214-4609.201414221.

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Shabariram, C. P., and K. E. Kannammal. "Earthquake prediction using map reduce framework." In 2017 International Conference on Computer Communication and Informatics (ICCCI). IEEE, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/iccci.2017.8117745.

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Reports on the topic "Earthquake prediction"

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Rukin, M. D., and A. F. Chernyaev. New paradigm of earthquake prediction. Academy of Trinitarianism, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.12731/rukinchernyaev.

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Gunay, Selim, Fan Hu, Khalid Mosalam, et al. Blind Prediction of Shaking Table Tests of a New Bridge Bent Design. Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.55461/svks9397.

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Considering the importance of the transportation network and bridge structures, the associated seismic design philosophy is shifting from the basic collapse prevention objective to maintaining functionality on the community scale in the aftermath of moderate to strong earthquakes (i.e., resiliency). In addition to performance, the associated construction philosophy is also being modernized, with the utilization of accelerated bridge construction (ABC) techniques to reduce impacts of construction work on traffic, society, economy, and on-site safety during construction. Recent years have seen several developments towards the design of low-damage bridges and ABC. According to the results of conducted tests, these systems have significant potential to achieve the intended community resiliency objectives. Taking advantage of such potential in the standard design and analysis processes requires proper modeling that adequately characterizes the behavior and response of these bridge systems. To evaluate the current practices and abilities of the structural engineering community to model this type of resiliency-oriented bridges, the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) organized a blind prediction contest of a two-column bridge bent consisting of columns with enhanced response characteristics achieved by a well-balanced contribution of self-centering, rocking, and energy dissipation. The parameters of this blind prediction competition are described in this report, and the predictions submitted by different teams are analyzed. In general, forces are predicted better than displacements. The post-tension bar forces and residual displacements are predicted with the best and least accuracy, respectively. Some of the predicted quantities are observed to have coefficient of variation (COV) values larger than 50%; however, in general, the scatter in the predictions amongst different teams is not significantly large. Applied ground motions (GM) in shaking table tests consisted of a series of naturally recorded earthquake acceleration signals, where GM1 is found to be the largest contributor to the displacement error for most of the teams, and GM7 is the largest contributor to the force (hence, the acceleration) error. The large contribution of GM1 to the displacement error is due to the elastic response in GM1 and the errors stemming from the incorrect estimation of the period and damping ratio. The contribution of GM7 to the force error is due to the errors in the estimation of the base-shear capacity. Several teams were able to predict forces and accelerations with only moderate bias. Displacements, however, were systematically underestimated by almost every team. This suggests that there is a general problem either in the assumptions made or the models used to simulate the response of this type of bridge bent with enhanced response characteristics. Predictions of the best-performing teams were consistently and substantially better than average in all response quantities. The engineering community would benefit from learning details of the approach of the best teams and the factors that caused the models of other teams to fail to produce similarly good results. Blind prediction contests provide: (1) very useful information regarding areas where current numerical models might be improved; and (2) quantitative data regarding the uncertainty of analytical models for use in performance-based earthquake engineering evaluations. Such blind prediction contests should be encouraged for other experimental research activities and are planned to be conducted annually by PEER.
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Sánchez- Sesma, Francisco José, Hiroshi Kawase, and Joseline Mena Negrete. Working Paper PUEAA No. 5. The collaboration between Mexico and Japan in earthquake engineering and seismology. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Programa Universitario de Estudios sobre Asia y África, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.22201/pueaa.003r.2022.

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Despite their remoteness from each other, Japan and Mexico share a critical characteristic: the seismic hazard. In the past, both nations have been hit by great earthquakes that have caused serious human and material losses. Although the prediction of earthquakes is not yet possible, the development of early warning systems and their constant innovation is a priority, especially the studies of the horizontal-to-vertical spectral relationship of microseisms, which can help the study and understanding of earthquakes’ nature, as well as their impact on infrastructure. It is for mutual benefit to Japan and Mexico that cooperation between university institutions specialized in seismological studies increases to jointly create study and innovation mechanisms.
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Virtucio, Michael, Barbaros Cetiner, Bingyu Zhao, Kenichi Soga, and Erturgul Taciroglu. A Granular Framework for Modeling the Capacity Loss and Recovery of Regional Transportation Networks under Seismic Hazards: A Case Study on the Port of Los Angeles. Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.55461/hxhg3206.

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Earthquakes, being both unpredictable and potentially destructive, pose great risks to critical infrastructure systems like transportation. It becomes crucial, therefore, to have both a fine-grained and holistic understanding of how the current state of a transportation system would fare during hypothetical hazard scenarios. This paper introduces a synthesis approach to assessing the impacts of earthquakes by coupling an image-based structure-and-site-specific bridge fragility generation methodology with regional-scale traffic simulations and economic loss prediction models. The proposed approach’s use of context-rich data such as OpenStreetMap and Google Street View enables incorporating information that is abstracted in standard loss analysis tools like HAZUS in order to construct nonlinear bridge models and corresponding fragility functions. The framework uses a semi-dynamic traffic assignment model run on a regional traffic network that includes all freeways and local roads (1,444,790 edges) and outputs traffic volume on roads before and after bridge closures due to an earthquake as well as impacts to individual trips (42,056,426 trips). The combination of these models enables granularity, facilitating a bottom-up approach to estimating costs incurred solely due to physical damage to the transportation network. As a case study, the proposed framework is applied to the road network surrounding the Port of Los Angeles---an infrastructure of crucial importance---for assessing resilience and losses at a high resolution. It is found that the port area is disproportionately impacted in the hypothetical earthquake scenario, and delays in bridge repair can lead to a 50% increase in costs.
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Mosalam, Khalid, Amarnath Kasalanati, and Selim Gunay. PEER Annual Report 2017 - 2018. Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.55461/fars6451.

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The Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER) is a multi-institutional research and education center with headquarters at the University of California, Berkeley. PEER’s mission is to (1) develop, validate, and disseminate performance-based engineering (PBE) technologies for buildings and infrastructure networks subjected to earthquakes and other natural hazards, with the goal of achieving community resilience; and (2) equip the earthquake engineering and other extreme-event communities with the 21st -century tools that define the current digital revolution. This reports presents the activities of the Center over the period of July 1, 2017 to June 30, 2018. PEER staff, in particular Grace Kang, Erika Donald, Claire Johnson, Christina Bodnar-Anderson, and Zulema Lara, helped in preparation of this report. Key activities of the past academic year include the following: -Continuation of major projects such as Tall Building Initiative (TBI) and Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) projects, and start of work on the major project funded by the California Earthquake Authority (CEA). The TBI was completed in 2017, and NGA projects are nearing completion soon. -Addition of University of Nevada, Reno (UNR) as a core institution. -Re-establishment of the PEER Research Committee. -Issuing a Request for Proposal (RFP) from TSRP funds and funding 17 projects as a result of this RFP. Together with the ongoing projects, the total number of projects funded in 2017 is 24. -Organization of several workshops focused on Liquefaction, Structural Health Monitoring (SHM), High-Performance Computing (HPC), Bridge Component Fragility Development, Physics-Based Ground Motions, Hybrid Simulation, and Research Needs for Resilient Buildings. -Rollout of TBI seminars and HayWired activities as part of outreach. -Conducting a blind prediction contest with robust participation and instructive findings on current modeling approaches. -Organization of the PEER Annual Meeting with participation of 240 attendees -Continuing participation in board of directors of international organizations such as Global Alliance of Disaster Research Institutes (GADRI) and International Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering (ILEE). Going forward, PEER aims to hold more focused workshops, form new committees, and draw on existing resources and experience on PBE to systematically move towards Resilient Design for Extreme Events (RDEE).
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Si, Hongjun, Saburoh Midorikawa, and Tadahiro Kishida. Development of NGA-Sub Ground-Motion Model of 5%-Damped Pseudo-Spectral Acceleration Based on Database for Subduction Earthquakes in Japan. Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.55461/lien3652.

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Presented within is an empirical ground-motion model (GMM) for subduction-zone earthquakesin Japan. The model is based on the extensive and comprehensive subduction database of Japanese earthquakes by the Pacific Engineering Research Center (PEER). It considers RotD50 horizontal components of peak ground acceleration (PGA), peak ground velocity (PGV), and 5%-damped elastic pseudo-absolute acceleration response spectral ordinates (PSA) at the selected periods ranging from 0.01 to 10 sec. The model includes terms and predictor variables considering tectonic setting (i.e., interplate and intraslab), hypocentral depths (D), magnitude scaling, distance attenuation, and site response. The magnitude scaling derived in this study is well constrained by the data observed during the large-magnitude interface events in Japan (i.e., the 2003 Tokachi-Oki and 2011 Tohoku earthquakes) for different periods. The developed ground-motion prediction equation (GMPE) covers subduction-zone earthquakes that have occurred in Japan for magnitudes ranging from 5.5 to as large as 9.1, with distances less than 300 km from the source.
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Meissner, C. EQSIM and RAJA: Enabling Exascale Predictions of Earthquake Effects on Critical Infrastructure. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/2205727.

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Andrabi, Tahir, Benjamin Daniels, and Jishnu Das. Human Capital Accumulation and Disasters: Evidence from the Pakistan Earthquake of 2005. Research on Improving Systems of Education (RISE), 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.35489/bsg-risewp_2020/039.

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We trace the effects of a devastating earthquake that occurred in Northern Pakistan in 2005. Using a new dataset from a survey conducted four years after the earthquake, we first show that the distance of the household from the fault line was not correlated with pre-existing household characteristics, while it was strongly predictive of earthquake-related damage and mortality. Through emergency relief aid, households living close to the fault line reported receiving substantial cash compensation that amounted to as much as 150% of their annual household consumption expenditure. Four years after the earthquake, there were no differences in public infrastructure, household or adult outcomes between areas close to and far from the fault line. However, children in their critical first thousand days at the time of the earthquake accumulated large height deficits, with the youngest the most affected. Children aged 3 through 15 at the time of the earthquake did not suffer growth shortfalls, but scored significantly worse on academic tests if they lived close to the fault line. Finally, children whose mothers completed primary education were fully protected against the emergence of a test score gap. We estimate that if these deficits continue to adult life, the affected children could stand to lose 15% of their lifetime earnings. Even when disasters are heavily compensated, human capital accumulation can be critically interrupted, with greater losses for already disadvantaged populations.
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Kottke, Albert, Norman Abrahamson, David Boore, et al. Selection of Random Vibration Procedures for the NGA-East Project. Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, University of California, Berkeley, CA, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.55461/ltmu9309.

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Pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA) is the most commonly used intensity measure in earthquake engineering as it serves as a simple approximate predictor of structural response for many types of systems. Therefore, most ground-motion models (GMMs, aka GMPEs) provide median and standard deviation PSA using a suite of input parameters characterizing the source, path, and site effects. Unfortunately, PSA is a complex metric: the PSA for a single oscillator frequency depends on the Fourier amplitudes across a range of frequencies. The Fourier amplitude spectrum (FAS) is an appealing alternative because its simple linear superposition allows effects to be modeled as transfer functions. For this reason, most seismological models, i.e., the source spectrum, are developed for the FAS. Using FAS in conjunction with random-vibration theory (RVT) allows GMM developers to superimpose seismological models directly, computing PSA only at the end of the process. The FAS-RVT-PSA approach was first used by the Hollenback et al. team in their development of GMMs for the Next Generation Attenuation Relationships for Central &amp; Eastern North-America (NGA-East) project (see Chapter 11 of PEER Report No. 2015/04). As part of the NGA-East project to support the Hollenback et al. team and similar efforts, the current report summarizes a systematic processing algorithm for FAS that minimizes computational requirements and bias that results from the RVT approximation for median GMM development.
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Honegger, Wijewickreme, and Monroy. L52325 Assessment of Geosynthetic Fabrics to Reduce Soil Loads on Buried Pipelines - Phase I and II. Pipeline Research Council International, Inc. (PRCI), 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.55274/r0010398.

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High soil loads on buried pipelines can lead to unacceptably high pipeline strains developed in response to permanent ground displacement. Common causes of permanent ground displacement are related to slope instability as a result of heavy precipitation or ground subsidence. In addition, several permanent ground displacement hazards are related to earthquakes including surface fault displacement, triggered landslide movement, surface ground settlement related to liquefaction, and lateral spread displacement. Result: Four specific areas of investigation were completed: 1.Performed baseline tests in moist sand to confirm minimal difference in horizontal soil restraint between moist and dry sand. 2.Performed tests to gauge the variation in horizontal load reduction with separation between the pipe and an inclined trench wall lined with two layers of geotextile. 3.Performed tests in compacted 19 mm (0.75 in) minus sand and crushed limestone (referred to locally in British Columbia as road mulch) to attempt to provide larger difference between horizontal forces developed with and without lining a trench wall with geotextile. 4.Performed tests to attempt to confirm oblique horizontal-axial soil restraint behavior reported in small-scale tests and centrifuge tests. Benefit: Rather than undertake further physical testing to better understand how the presence of single or dual layers of geotextile fabric changes the mechanisms by which soil restraint develops for horizontal ground displacement, future efforts should focus on numerical simulation preferably using discrete element methods. Until full-scale test data are available to confirm consistent prediction of oblique horizontal-axial soil restraint, the practice of treating horizontal and axial soil springs independently in the analysis of buried pipeline response to ground displacement, as is the current practice, should be maintained.
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