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Journal articles on the topic 'Earthquake prediction in art'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 4 June 2021

Last updated: 11 February 2022

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1

Keilis-Borok, Vladimir. "Earthquake Prediction: State-of-the-Art and Emerging Possibilities." Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 30, no. 1 (May 2002): 1–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.earth.30.100301.083856.

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2

Chan, Chung-Han, Kuo-Fong Ma, J. Bruce H. Shyu, Ya-Ting Lee, Yu-Ju Wang, Jia-Cian Gao, Yin-Tung Yen, and Ruey-Juin Rau. "Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Taiwan: TEM PSHA2020." Earthquake Spectra 36, no. 1_suppl (September 14, 2020): 137–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/8755293020951587.

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The Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM) published the first version of the Taiwan probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (named TEM PSHA2015) 5 years ago. For updating to the TEM PSHA2020, we considered an updated seismogenic structure database, including the structures newly identified with 3D geometry, an earthquake catalog made current to 2016, state-of-the-art seismic models, a new set of ground motion prediction equations, and site amplification factors. In addition to earthquakes taking place on each individual seismogenic structure, the updated seismic model included the possibility of an earthquake occurring on multiple structures. To include fault memory for illustrating activity on seismogenic structure sources, we incorporated the Brownian passage time model. For the crustal seismicity that cannot be attributed to any specific structure, we implemented both area source and smoothing kernel models. A new set of ground motion prediction equations is incorporated. In addition to the calculation of hazard at engineering bedrock, our assessment included site amplification factors that competent authorities of governments and private companies could use to implement hazard prevention and reduction strategies.

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3

Nagao, T., and Y. Fukushima. "Source- and Site-Specific Earthquake Ground Motions." Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research 10, no. 4 (August 16, 2020): 5882–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.48084/etasr.3612.

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Seismic design is the preparation for earthquake ground motions considering the seismicity and seismic amplification properties of the ground at the target site. However, the effects of source, path, and site amplification characteristics are not sufficiently anticipated in seismic codes. Regarding the source and path characteristics, earthquakes that have the strongest influence on the target site should be considered specifically, and, concerning seismic amplification, the effects of not only a shallow subsurface but also a deep subsurface should be considered. This article takes the design spectra of Japanese highway bridges as an object and compares them with the spectra produced by a ground motion prediction equation and the source- and site-specific spectra evaluated using a state-of-the-art method. The results show that the spectra differ greatly. In this way, the necessity of the application of a state-of-the-art technique in the evaluation of source, path, and site amplification characteristics is demonstrated.

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4

Gordo, Cristina, José Luís Zêzere, and Rui Marques. "Landslide Susceptibility Assessment at the Basin Scale for Rainfall- and Earthquake-Triggered Shallow Slides." Geosciences 9, no. 6 (June 20, 2019): 268. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/geosciences9060268.

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The hydrographic basin of Ribeira Grande (S. Miguel Island, Azores) has a set of characteristics that enhance the occurrence of shallow slides that have been triggered by rainfall and earthquakes. Two landslide inventories were built according to the landslide triggers: Landslide Inventory 2 (LI 2), which includes 174 earthquake-triggered shallow slides occurred in 2005; and Landslide Inventory 1 (LI 1), which includes 442 shallow slides triggered by rainfall in several periods from 2005 to 2016. Both landslide inventories were characterized and compared from the morphometric point of view and were used individually to produce susceptibility models to failure using a simple bivariate state-of-the-art statistical method (the Information Value). The landslide susceptibility Models were validated using success rates, prediction rates, and Kappa statistics. The results show that shallow slides triggered by rainfall and earthquakes in the study area have different morphometric characteristics. It was verified that models produced with LI 1 are very effective in predicting the spatial location of LI 2, but the same does not happen in the inverse situation. Finally, landslide susceptibility models developed with LI 1 and LI 2 for the upper sector of the hydrographic basin (where most landslides occurred), and latter applied to the complete watershed, present more modest predictive results but are more reliable to characterize the landslide susceptibility in the study area.

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5

Banimahd, Meysam, Steve Tyler, Matthew Kuo, and Fiona Chow. "Earthquake risk management for oil and gas infrastructure in the north west of Australia." APPEA Journal 60, no. 2 (2020): 588. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/aj19213.

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The July 2019 magnitude 6.6 earthquake 200 km offshore from Broome is a recent reminder of the significant risk that earthquakes pose to oil and gas infrastructure in Australia. Unlike tropical cyclones, there are no reliable methods for predicting the timing, location and magnitude of imminent earthquakes. Appropriate risk management is therefore required, together with the implementation of emergency response and integrity management procedures, to manage the potential impacts to health, safety, process safety, the environment and production. Given the concentration of oil and gas infrastructure in the north west of Australia, a collaborative approach is advantageous for earthquake risk management and emergency response measures. This paper shares Woodside’s earthquake risk and integrity management procedures with the aim of enabling appropriate quality and consistency throughout the industry. The paper reviews state-of-the-art international practice in earthquake risk management for critical infrastructure from design to operation. Applicable seismic design criteria, likely failure modes and performance requirements are also described. Woodside’s real-time earthquake alert and integrity management systems are presented. Recommendations are made on best practice for earthquake risk management in the region and areas for further collaboration and improvement within the industry.

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6

Nakabayashi, Itsuki. "Development of Urban Disaster Prevention Systems in Japan – from the Mid-1980s." Journal of Disaster Research 1, no. 1 (August 1, 2006): 46–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2006.p0046.

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This treatise outlines developments in disaster management focusing on earthquake disaster measures taken by the Japanese and Tokyo Metropolitan Governments since the 1980s. The 1978 Large-Scale Earthquake Measures Special Act on conditions for predicting the Tokai Earthquake significantly changed the direction of earthquake disaster measures in Japan. The Tokyo Metropolitan Government undertook its own earthquake disaster measures based on lessons learned from the 1964 Niigata Earthquake. In the 1980s, it began planning urban development disaster management programs for upgrading areas with high wooden houses concentration - still a big problem in many urban areas of Japan - which are most vulnerable to earthquake disasters. The 1995 Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake in Kobe brought meaningful insight into both to earthquake disaster measures by the Japanese Government and by the Tokyo Metropolitan Government and other local governments nationwide. Long-term predictions concerning possible earthquake occurrence have been conducted throughout Japan and new earthquake disaster measures have been adopted based on this long-term prediction. The Tokyo Government has further completely revised its own earthquake disaster measures. As a review of measures against foreseeable earthquake disasters based on developments in disaster management measures, this treatise provides invaluable insights emphasizing urban earthquake disaster prevention developed in Japan over the last 30 years that readers are sure to find both interesting and informative in their own work.

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7

Smith, Conrad. "Reporters, news sources, and scientific intervention: the New Madrid earthquake prediction." Public Understanding of Science 5, no. 3 (July 1996): 205–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/0963-6625/5/3/002.

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Five major newspapers in the United States published only eight stories about a scientifically legitimate prediction of a 1989 earthquake that caused six billion dollars' damage. The same newspapers published 68 stories about an unscientific prediction of a 1990 earthquake that did not occur. This paper attempts to explain why the unscientific prediction received more scrutiny by examining the journalistic practices that determine what is newsworthy and who is interviewed. The paper also analyses the effectiveness of an organized effort by the scientific community to intervene in the journalistic process.

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8

Jury, R. D. "The prediction of building performance during earthquakes." Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering 37, no. 3 (September 30, 2004): 134–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.37.3.134-138.

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Procedures for the seismic design of new buildings to achieve a minimum acceptable performance are well established. However, it is concluded in this paper that the actual performance of structures will not be predicted with any certainty using the same procedures, given the uncertainties associated with the assumptions that must be made. Sole reliance on design procedures to predict performance is likely to lead to unnecessary conservatism and this must be taken into account when setting standards for design. It is also concluded that there is currently insufficient data available in a suitable form to enable the correlation between analysis and actual performance to be assessed in any way other than by judgement. The prediction of seismic performance remains very much an art.

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9

Gad-El-Hak, M. "The art and science of large-scale disasters." Bulletin of the Polish Academy of Sciences: Technical Sciences 57, no. 1 (March 1, 2009): 3–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/v10175-010-0101-8.

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The art and science of large-scale disastersThe subject of large-scale disasters is broadly introduced in this article. Both the art and science of predicting, preventing and mitigating natural and manmade disasters are discussed. A universal, quantitative metric that puts all natural and manmade disasters on a common scale is proposed. Issues of prediction, control and mitigation of catastrophes are presented. The laws of nature govern the evolution of any disaster. In some cases, as for example weather-related disasters, the first-principles laws of classical mechanics could be written in the form of field equations, but exact solutions of these often nonlinear differential equations are impossible to obtain particularly for turbulent flows, and heuristic models together with intensive use of supercomputers are necessary to proceed to a reasonably accurate forecast. In other cases, as for example earthquakes, the precise laws are not even known and prediction becomes more or less a black art. Management of any type of disaster is more art than science. Nevertheless, much can be done to alleviate the resulting pain and suffering. The expansive presentation of the broad field of large-scale disasters precludes a detailed coverage of any one of the many topics touched upon. Three take-home messages are conveyed, however: a universal metric for all natural and manmade disasters is presented; all facets of the genre are described; and a proposal is made to view all disasters as dynamical systems governed for the most part by the laws of classical mechanics.

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10

Forcellini, Davide, Fabio Della Bartola, and Angelo Marcello Tarantino. "Liquefaction-Induced Lateral Deformations Computational Assessment during Tohoku Earthquake." ISRN Civil Engineering 2013 (August 5, 2013): 1–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/408961.

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Liquefaction-induced lateral spreading during Tohoku earthquake resulted in significant damage, and disruption of functionality for structures and life. The paper aims at reproducing this on-site evidence presenting the state of the art about the most credited qualitative approach and comparing these methods with numerical computation. In this regard, finite element (FE) simulations are increasingly providing a versatile environment in order to assess economical and effective damage. In the study, several systematic three-dimensional FE computations have been conducted to numerically evaluate the effects in terms of liquefaction-induced lateral deformations. The analysis is performed in correspondence with Urayasu City, where the registered liquefaction consequences on residential buildings were wide if compared with the ordinary seismic shake. This study can be used both for post-earthquake evaluations and for pre-earthquake vulnerability predictions.

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11

Rahimi, Fatemeh, Reza Aghayari, and Bijan Samali. "Application of Tuned Mass Dampers for Structural Vibration Control: A State-of-the-art Review." Civil Engineering Journal 6, no. 8 (August 1, 2020): 1622–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.28991/cej-2020-03091571.

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Given the burgeoning demand for construction of structures and high-rise buildings, controlling the structural vibrations under earthquake and other external dynamic forces seems more important than ever. Vibration control devices can be classified into passive, active and hybrid control systems. The technologies commonly adopted to control vibration, reduce damage, and generally improve the structural performance, include, but not limited to, damping, vibration isolation, control of excitation forces, vibration absorber. Tuned Mass Dampers (TMDs) have become a popular tool for protecting structures from unpredictable vibrations because of their relatively simple principles, their relatively easy performance optimization as shown in numerous recent successful applications. This paper presents a critical review of active, passive, semi-active and hybrid control systems of TMD used for preserving structures against forces induced by earthquake or wind, and provides a comparison of their efficiency, and comparative advantages and disadvantages. Despite the importance and recent advancement in this field, previous review studies have only focused on either passive or active TMDs. Hence this review covers the theoretical background of all types of TMDs and discusses the structural, analytical, practical differences and the economic aspects of their application in structural control. Moreover, this study identifies and highlights a range of knowledge gaps in the existing studies within this area of research. Among these research gaps, we identified that the current practices in determining the principle natural frequency of TMDs needs improvement. Furthermore, there is an increasing need for more complex methods of analysis for both TMD and structures that consider their nonlinear behavior as this can significantly improve the prediction of structural response and in turn, the optimization of TMDs.

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12

Lu, Xinzheng, Qingle Cheng, Zhen Xu, Yongjia Xu, and Chujin Sun. "Real-Time City-Scale Time-History Analysis and Its Application in Resilience-Oriented Earthquake Emergency Responses." Applied Sciences 9, no. 17 (August 24, 2019): 3497. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/app9173497.

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The resilience of cities has received worldwide attention. An accurate and rapid assessment of seismic damage, economic loss, and post-event repair time can provide an important reference for emergency rescue and post-earthquake recovery. Based on city-scale nonlinear time-history analysis (THA) and regional seismic loss prediction, a real-time city-scale time-history analysis method is proposed in this work. In this method, the actual ground motion records obtained from seismic stations are input into the building models of the earthquake-stricken area, and the nonlinear time-history analysis of these models is subsequently performed using a high-performance computing platform. The seismic damage to the buildings in the target region subjected to this earthquake is evaluated according to the analysis results. The economic loss and repair time of the earthquake-stricken areas are calculated using the engineering demand parameters obtained from the time-history analysis. A program named, “Real-time Earthquake Damage Assessment using City-scale Time-history analysis” (“RED-ACT” for short) was developed to automatically implement the above workflow. The method proposed in this work has been applied in many earthquake events, and provides a useful reference for scientific decision making for earthquake disaster relief, which is of great significance to enhancing the resilience of earthquake-stricken areas.

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13

Atwood, L. Erwin, and Ann M. Major. "Optimism, pessimism, and communication behavior in response to an earthquake prediction." Public Understanding of Science 9, no. 4 (October 2000): 417–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/0963-6625/9/4/305.

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14

Rusten, Jeffrey S. "ΔΗΛΟΣ ἘΚΙΝΉΘΗ: An ‘Imaginary Earthquake’ on Delos in Herodotus and Thucydides." Journal of Hellenic Studies 133 (2013): 135–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0075426913000086.

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AbstractThucydides' and Herodotus' comments on a portentous (and unique) Delian earthquake contain the same phrase, but date the event almost 60 years apart and mutually rule out each other's datings. Two additional problems in these passages – geology demonstrates that Delos has never in fact had an earthquake of any significance and κινεῖν is not the word for an earthquake – point to an explanation for the historians' treatment. They are based on the Delphic oracle quoted by Herodotus which promised to ‘move unmoved Delos’, a paradox based on the island's mythical transition from floating to fixed (Pindar), but liable to confusion with its equally well-known aseismicity. Normally κινεῖν τὰ ἀκίνητα is used of interfering with religious sites; but the oracle's prediction was interpreted as an earthquake, that was assumed to have occurred in due course (although it had not). Both historians accepted the interpretation, but followed different datings since they invested it with different symbolism, Herodotus of the evils of the Persian and subsequent Greek wars, Thucydides of excited anticipation on the eve of the Peloponnesian War, since for him κίνησις meant ‘mobilization’ (1.1).

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15

Zhao, Wenbo, Qing Dong, Zhe Chen, Tao Feng, Dong Wang, Liangwen Jiang, Shihui Du, et al. "Weighted Information Models for the Quantitative Prediction and Evaluation of the Geothermal Anomaly Area in the Plateau: A Case Study of the Sichuan–Tibet Railway." Remote Sensing 13, no. 9 (April 21, 2021): 1606. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/rs13091606.

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The prediction of geothermal high-temperature anomalies along the plateau railway will be helpful in the construction of the project and its later management. Taking the Sichuan–Tibet railway as the study area and based on Landsat8 thermal infrared images, map data, and measured data regarding the cause and distribution of geothermal high-temperature anomalies, through correlation analysis, we selected six impact factors including the LST, combined entropy of geological formation, fault density, buffer distance to rivers, magnetic anomaly, and earthquake peak acceleration as the input maps of the model. The index-overlay information model, the weights of the entropy information model, and the weights of the evidence information model were established to quantitatively predict the geothermal anomaly in the study area, and the prediction maps were divided into four classes. The results show that the weights of the evidence information model achieved a high prediction accuracy; the success index and the ratio of the high anomaly area reached 0.0053% and 0.872, respectively, and the spatial distribution of the geothermal points is basically consistent with the prediction results. This research can act as a reference for the design and construction of the Sichuan–Tibet railway.

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16

Faridmehr, Iman, Mehdi Nikoo, Mohammad Hajmohammadian Baghban, and Raffaele Pucinotti. "Hybrid Krill Herd-ANN Model for Prediction Strength and Stiffness of Bolted Connections." Buildings 11, no. 6 (May 27, 2021): 229. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/buildings11060229.

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The behavior of beam-to-column connections significantly influences the stability, strength, and stiffness of steel structures. This is particularly important in extreme non-elastic responses, i.e., earthquakes, and sudden column removal, as the fluctuation in strength and stiffness affects both supply and demand. Accordingly, it is essential to accurately estimate the strength and stiffness of connections in the analysis of and design procedures for steel structures. Beginning with the state-of-the-art, the capacity of three available component-based mechanical models to estimate the complex mechanical properties of top- and seat-angle connections with double-web angles (TSACWs), with variable parameters, were investigated. Subsequently, a novel hybrid krill herd algorithm-artificial neural network (KHA-ANN) model was proposed to acquire an informational model from the available experimental dataset. Using several statistical metrics, including the corresponding coefficient of variation (CoV), correlation coefficient (R), and the correlation coefficient provided by the Taylor diagram, this study revealed that the krill herd-ANN model achieved the most reliable predictive accuracy for the strength and stiffness of top- and seat-angle connections with double web angles.

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17

Cherian, Ciby Jacob, T. M. Madhavan Pillai, and A. S. Sajith. "State of the Art of Non-Linear Devices and Strategies for Vibration Control." Applied Mechanics and Materials 857 (November 2016): 219–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amm.857.219.

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Modern structures undergo considerably large responses when subjected to external loading owing to the tall, lighter and flexible nature of these structures. Due to this and the instability that may be induced, any vibrating system either civil or mechanical has the disability of being utilised to its maximum efficiency. This necessitates the response control of such structures and systems for many reasons. Different methods have been used for this response control from the past, which includes passive, active and hybrid control devices and strategies. Linear procedures and models used in this context have their own limitations since all real systems are basically nonlinear. This has been understood well in advance and hence, many control techniques have been devised to cater for non-linear behaviour from early mid-19th century. Predicting the post-yield behaviour of civil engineering structures as well as controlling their vibrations using non-linear systems are ever challenging problems, especially when subjected to random excitations such as wind and earthquake. This paper presents the state of the art of non-linear devices and strategies for vibration control of structures and systems. It briefly discusses the control strategies and devices used in practise emphasising the merits and demerits of each of them. The use of control devices with linear plus cubic spring, hyperbolic sine spring, Belleville non-linear softening spring in parallel with viscous damper for the control of vibration is presented. The use of frequency energy dependence in the design of absorber and the use of power absorption ratio and kinetic energy of non-linear oscillator for the design of non-linear absorber, which is vastly explored in the recent years are outlined. A newer but efficient method in modelling non-linear system by the use of nonlinear targeted energy transfer is also discussed.

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18

Pischiutta, Marta, Aybige Akinci, Elisa Tinti, and André Herrero. "Broad-band ground-motion simulation of 2016 Amatrice earthquake, Central Italy." Geophysical Journal International 224, no. 3 (August 31, 2020): 1753–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggaa412.

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SUMMARY On 24 August 2016 at 01:36 UTC a ML6.0 earthquake struck several villages in central Italy, among which Accumoli, Amatrice and Arquata del Tronto. The earthquake was recorded by about 350 seismic stations, causing 299 fatalities and damage with macroseismic intensities up to 11. The maximum acceleration was observed at Amatrice station (AMT) reaching 916 cm s–2 on E–W component, with epicentral distance of 15 km and Joyner and Boore distance to the fault surface (RJB) of less than a kilometre. Motivated by the high levels of observed ground motion and damage, we generate broad-band seismograms for engineering purposes by adopting a hybrid method. To infer the low frequency seismograms, we considered the kinematic slip model by Tinti et al . The high frequency seismograms were produced using a stochastic finite-fault model approach based on dynamic corner-frequency. Broad-band synthetic time-series were therefore obtained by merging the low and high frequency seismograms. Simulated hybrid ground motions were compared both with the observed ground motions and the ground-motion prediction equations (GMPEs), to explore their performance and to retrieve the region-specific parameters endorsed for the simulations. In the near-fault area we observed that hybrid simulations have a higher capability to detect near source effects and to reproduce the source complexity than the use of GMPEs. Indeed, the general good consistency found between synthetic and observed ground motion (both in the time and frequency domain), suggests that the use of regional-specific source scaling and attenuation parameters together with the source complexity in hybrid simulations improves ground motion estimations. To include the site effect in stochastic simulations at selected stations, we tested the use of amplification curves derived from HVRSs (horizontal-to-vertical response spectra) and from HVSRs (horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios) rather than the use of generic curves according to NTC18 Italian seismic design code. We generally found a further reduction of residuals between observed and simulated both in terms of time histories and spectra.

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19

Kurup, Pradeep U., and Amit Garg. "Evaluation of Liquefaction Potential Using Neural Networks Based on Adaptive Resonance Theory." Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board 1936, no. 1 (January 2005): 192–200. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0361198105193600122.

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The incomprehensible loss of lives and extensive damages to transportation facilities caused by earthquakes emphasize the need for robust and reliable methods for evaluating the liquefaction potential of sites. Traditional methods for evaluating liquefaction potential are based on correlating data from the standard penetration test (blow count, N), cone penetration test (cone resistance, qc), or the shear wave velocity ( Vs) with the cyclic stress ratio. These methods are unable to incorporate the complex influence of various soil and in situ state parameters. This problem encouraged the development of numerous nontraditional methods such as artificial neural networks that try to learn and account for the influence of various soil and in situ state properties. The possibility of using neural networks based on adaptive resonance theory (ART) for the prediction of liquefaction potential was explored. These networks have been shown to be far more efficient and reliable than the commonly used backpropagation artificial neural network and other multilayer perceptrons. Two Fuzzy ARTMAP (FAM) models were developed and tested with qc and Vs data obtained from past case histories. The qc-and Vs-based FAM models gave overall successful prediction rates of 98% and 97%, respectively. The promising results obtained by the FAM models exemplify the potential of nontraditional computing methods for evaluating liquefaction potential.

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20

Dearing, James W. "Newspaper coverage of maverick science: creating controversy through balancing." Public Understanding of Science 4, no. 4 (October 1995): 341–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/0963-6625/4/4/002.

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How do journalists portray the ideas of maverick scientists to the general public? Are mavericks portrayed as credible scientific sources? Do the stories written by journalists function to merely translate maverick theories for nonscientific audiences, or do they more often transform those maverick theories into the realm of scientific controversies? This study hypothesized answers to these questions by analysing how journalists wrote about three maverick theories: (1) a 1990 earthquake prediction, (2) an alternative theory about the cause of AIDS, and (3) cold fusion. A content analysis of 393 news articles in 26 US newspapers and a mailed survey of the journalists who wrote those stories suggest that scientific theories which are believed to be credible by a minority of scientists may be lent credibility in mass media stories, even though the journalists themselves thought that the maverick scientists lacked credibility. Implications for the communication of risk through the mass media are discussed.

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21

Turcotte, D. L. "Earthquake Prediction." Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 19, no. 1 (May 1991): 263–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ea.19.050191.001403.

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22

Karnik, Vit. "Earthquake Prediction." Journal of the World Association for Emergency and Disaster Medicine 3, no. 1 (1987): 102–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049023x00028879.

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Every new earthquake disaster revives the idea of earthquake prediction, the idea which was considered a few decades ago as a fantasy scientific endeavor. However, recent technical and scientific developments, as well as some social and economic pressures, have created a quite different atmosphere. Earthquake prediction has become a serious scientific activity combining the efforts and results of many disciplines, particularly those of the earth sciences. The principal purpose of earthquake prediction is to reduce the vulnerability of the population living within an earthquake prone region. For this reason, scientific disciplines other than seismology and geology are also involved; they include those dealing with various aspects of human response and environment.

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23

Moore, Glenis. "Earthquake prediction." Electronics and Power 32, no. 2 (1986): 149. http://dx.doi.org/10.1049/ep.1986.0087.

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24

Papazachos, B. C. "Earthquake prediction." Tectonophysics 148, no. 1-2 (April 1988): 175. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(88)90169-2.

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25

Cremen, Gemma, Maximilian J. Werner, and Brian Baptie. "A New Procedure for Evaluating Ground-Motion Models, with Application to Hydraulic-Fracture-Induced Seismicity in the United Kingdom." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 110, no. 5 (March 31, 2020): 2380–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120190238.

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ABSTRACT An essential component of seismic hazard analysis is the prediction of ground shaking (and its uncertainty), using ground-motion models (GMMs). This article proposes a new method to evaluate (i.e., rank) the suitability of GMMs for modeling ground motions in a given region. The method leverages a statistical tool from sensitivity analysis to quantitatively compare predictions of a GMM with underlying observations. We demonstrate the performance of the proposed method relative to several other popular GMM ranking procedures and highlight its advantages, which include its intuitive scoring system and its ability to account for the hierarchical structure of GMMs. We use the proposed method to evaluate the applicability of several GMMs for modeling ground motions from induced earthquakes due to U.K. shale gas development. The data consist of 195 recordings at hypocentral distances (R) less than 10 km for 29 events with local magnitude (ML) greater than 0 that relate to 2018/2019 hydraulic-fracture operations at the Preston New Road shale gas site in Lancashire and 192 R<10 km recordings for 48 ML>0 events induced—within the same geologic formation—by coal mining near New Ollerton, North Nottinghamshire. We examine: (1) the Akkar, Sandikkaya, and Bommer (2014) models for European seismicity; (2) the Douglas et al. (2013) model for geothermal-induced seismicity; and (3) the Atkinson (2015) model for central and eastern North America induced seismicity. We find the Douglas et al. (2013) model to be the most suitable for almost all of the considered ground-motion intensity measures. We modify this model by recomputing its coefficients in line with the observed data, to further improve its accuracy for future analyses of the seismic hazard of interest. This study both advances the state of the art in GMM evaluation and enhances understanding of the seismic hazard related to U.K. shale gas development.

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Sykes, L. R., B. E. Shaw, and C. H. Scholz. "Rethinking Earthquake Prediction." pure and applied geophysics 155, no. 2-4 (August 1999): 207–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s000240050263.

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27

Zhang, Rui, Christian Walder, and Marian-Andrei Rizoiu. "Variational Inference for Sparse Gaussian Process Modulated Hawkes Process." Proceedings of the AAAI Conference on Artificial Intelligence 34, no. 04 (April 3, 2020): 6803–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1609/aaai.v34i04.6160.

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The Hawkes process (HP) has been widely applied to modeling self-exciting events including neuron spikes, earthquakes and tweets. To avoid designing parametric triggering kernel and to be able to quantify the prediction confidence, the non-parametric Bayesian HP has been proposed. However, the inference of such models suffers from unscalability or slow convergence. In this paper, we aim to solve both problems. Specifically, first, we propose a new non-parametric Bayesian HP in which the triggering kernel is modeled as a squared sparse Gaussian process. Then, we propose a novel variational inference schema for model optimization. We employ the branching structure of the HP so that maximization of evidence lower bound (ELBO) is tractable by the expectation-maximization algorithm. We propose a tighter ELBO which improves the fitting performance. Further, we accelerate the novel variational inference schema to linear time complexity by leveraging the stationarity of the triggering kernel. Different from prior acceleration methods, ours enjoys higher efficiency. Finally, we exploit synthetic data and two large social media datasets to evaluate our method. We show that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art non-parametric frequentist and Bayesian methods. We validate the efficiency of our accelerated variational inference schema and practical utility of our tighter ELBO for model selection. We observe that the tighter ELBO exceeds the common one in model selection.

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28

Oike, Kazuo. "Earthquake Science and Research in Earthquake Prediction." TRENDS IN THE SCIENCES 2, no. 10 (1997): 64–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.5363/tits.2.10_64.

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29

Whiteside, L. S. "Earthquake Prediction IS Possible." Seismological Research Letters 69, no. 4 (July 1, 1998): 287–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.69.4.287.

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30

Kachakhidze, Manana, Nino Kachakhidze-Murphy, Badri Khvitia, and Giorgi Ramishvili. "Large Earthquake Prediction Methods." Open Journal of Earthquake Research 08, no. 04 (2019): 239–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ojer.2019.84014.

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31

Elshin, Oleg, and Andrew A. Tronin. "Global Earthquake Prediction Systems." Open Journal of Earthquake Research 09, no. 02 (2020): 170–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ojer.2020.92010.

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32

Aki, Keiiti. "Earthquake prediction, societal implications." Reviews of Geophysics 33 (1995): 243. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/95rg00396.

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33

Burton, Paul W. "Geophysics: Electrical earthquake prediction." Nature 315, no. 6018 (May 1985): 370–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/315370a0.

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34

Keilis-Borok, V. I. "Intermediate-term earthquake prediction." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 93, no. 9 (April 30, 1996): 3748–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.93.9.3748.

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35

Molchan, G., and V. Keilis-Borok. "Earthquake prediction: probabilistic aspect." Geophysical Journal International 173, no. 3 (June 2008): 1012–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246x.2008.03785.x.

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36

Gupta, H. K. "Medium-term earthquake prediction." Eos, Transactions American Geophysical Union 69, no. 49 (1988): 1620. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/88eo01225.

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37

Duda, Seweryn J. "Intermediate-Term Earthquake Prediction." Geoexploration 26, no. 2 (November 1989): 148–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0016-7142(89)90061-6.

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38

Hatheway, Allen W. "Fundamentals of earthquake prediction." Engineering Geology 43, no. 1 (August 1996): 81–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0013-7952(95)00070-4.

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39

Rikitake, T. "Earthquake prediction—present status." Tectonophysics 200, no. 1-3 (December 1991): 333–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(91)90026-o.

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40

Aki, Keiiti. "Ideal probabilistic earthquake prediction." Tectonophysics 169, no. 1-3 (November 1989): 197–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(89)90193-5.

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41

Shi, Yaolin, Bei Zhang, Siqi Zhang, and Huai Zhang. "On numerical earthquake prediction." Earthquake Science 27, no. 3 (May 6, 2014): 319–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11589-014-0082-z.

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42

Peresan, Antonella, Vladimir G. Kossobokov, and Giuliano F. Panza. "Operational earthquake forecast/prediction." Rendiconti Lincei 23, no. 2 (April 22, 2012): 131–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12210-012-0171-7.

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43

NAGAO, Toshiyasu. "Earthquake and Multiphase Flows. Is Earthquake Prediction Possible or Not? Earthquake Prediction by Telluric Current Monitoring." JAPANESE JOURNAL OF MULTIPHASE FLOW 9, no. 2 (1995): 98–104. http://dx.doi.org/10.3811/jjmf.9.98.

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44

Saraereh, Omar A., Amer Alsaraira, Imran Khan, and Peerapong Uthansakul. "Performance Evaluation of UAV-Enabled LoRa Networks for Disaster Management Applications." Sensors 20, no. 8 (April 23, 2020): 2396. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s20082396.

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In hostile and remote environments, such as mountains, forests or suburban areas, traditional communications may not be available, especially after a disaster, such as a flood, a forest fire or an earthquake. In these situations, the wireless networks may become congested or completely disrupted and may not be adequate to support the traffic generated by rescuers. It is also considered as the key tool in Corona Virus (COVID-19) battle. Moreover, the conventional approaches with fixed gateways may not work either, and this might lead to decoding errors due to the large distance between mobile nodes and the gateway. To avoid the decoding errors and improve the reliability of the messages, we propose to use intermediate Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) to transfer messages from ground-based Long Range (LoRa) nodes to the remote base station (BS). Specifically, this UAV-enabled LoRa architecture is based on the ad hoc WiFi network, wherein, UAVs act as relays for the traffic generated between LoRa nodes and BS. To make the architecture more efficient, a distributed topology control algorithm is also proposed for UAVs. The algorithm is based on virtual spring forces and movement prediction technique that periodically updates the UAV topology to adapt to the movement of the ground-based LoRa nodes that move on the surface. The simulation results show the feasibility of the proposed approach for packet reception rate and average delay quality of service (QoS) metrics. It is observed that the mechanisms implemented in a UAV-enabled LoRa network effectively help to improve the packet reception rate with nominal buffer delays.

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45

Chen, Q. F., and K. Wang. "The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake and Earthquake Prediction in China." Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 100, no. 5B (October 19, 2010): 2840–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0120090314.

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46

Usami, Tatsuo. "Earthquake Studies and the Earthquake Prediction System in Japan." Journal of Disaster Research 1, no. 3 (December 1, 2006): 416–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2006.p0416.

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At 11h58m of Sept. 1, 1923, the coastal area of the south Kanto District, including big cities such as Tokyo, Yokohama, Kamakura and Atami, was violently shaken by a big shock. Disastrous vibrations continued for a couple of minutes. Immediately after the earthquake, fires arose at 163 points in Tokyo and about 3,800 ha were burnt to ashes. About 316,000 houses, 70% of all the houses in Tokyo, vanished in the fires. In Yokohama, fires arose at about 60 points and burnt about 950 ha and 60,000 houses, that is, 60% were destroyed by fires. Sum of the dead and the missing was 142,807, about 80-90% of whom were killed by fires. The most tragic event took place in the Hihukusho-yard (6 ha), which is located in downtown Tokyo. Many people who escaped from fires and other injuries gathered in this place with the minimum of personal property necessary for daily life. Fire was started on this meager assemblage and finally, 44,030 persons – almost all who gathered there – were burnt to death.

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47

Musson, R. M. W. "Testing Earthquake Prediction Results Statistically." Seismological Research Letters 68, no. 6 (November 1, 1997): 944–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.68.6.944.

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48

Lindh, A. G. "The Nature of Earthquake Prediction." Seismological Research Letters 74, no. 6 (November 1, 2003): 723–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/gssrl.74.6.723.

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49

Coleman, Sharon Lee, and Arthur Melvin Soellner. "Scientific Literacy and Earthquake Prediction." Journal of Geological Education 43, no. 2 (March 1995): 147–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.5408/0022-1368-43.2.147.

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50

Kossobokov, V. G. "Earthquake prediction: basics, achievements, perspectives." Acta Geodaetica et Geophysica Hungarica 39, no. 2-3 (May 2004): 205–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1556/ageod.39.2004.2-3.6.

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