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Journal articles on the topic 'Earthquake Scenario'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 1 April 2023

Last updated: 25 July 2025

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1

Isik, Ercan, Coskun Sagir, Zuhal Tozlu, and Umit Salim Ustaoglu. "Determination of Urban Earthquake Risk for Kırşehir, Turkey." Earth Sciences Research Journal 23, no. 3 (2019): 237–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.15446/esrj.v23n3.60255.

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Predicting the outcomes of earthquakes before they occur is one of the fundamental components of modern disaster management. Loss estimation analyses have an important place at the assessment stage of earthquakes and in estimation of losses that earthquakes may lead to. With these analyses, it is possible to access information that is relevant to potential damages and losses. In this paper, loss estimation analyses were carried out by using the earthquake scenario which foresaw a previous earthquake that was experienced in an around Kırşehir which is seismically active and located in the Centr

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Maharjan, Sony, and Shobha Shrestha. "An Assessment of Earthquake Risk in Thecho of Kathmandu Valley Nepal: Scenario and Reality." Geographical Journal of Nepal 11 (April 3, 2018): 127–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/gjn.v11i0.19553.

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Natural disaster cannot be stopped but its effect can be minimized or avoided by adopting technology and necessary human adjustment. Earthquake is a natural event which occurs without early warning signs. Computer based earthquake scenarios are used worldwide to describe and estimate the damage from potential earthquakes. The current study is an attempt to explore potential risk with respect to physical infrastructure and assess modeled and actual physical damage and human loss caused by different earthquake scenario and actual 2015 earthquake event in Thecho of Kathmandu valley. The earthquak

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ERIS, Mujgan Bilge, Cagla ALPARSLAN, Melis Almula KARADAYI, Ayla ALKAN, Duygun Fatih DEMIREL, and Eylul Damla Gonul-sezer EYLUL DAMLA GONUL-SEZER. "Economic Impacts of Expected Istanbul Earthquake: Scenario Generation." Eurasia Proceedings of Science Technology Engineering and Mathematics 22 (August 30, 2023): 378–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.55549/epstem.1351022.

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It is difficult to make precise estimations about the time, location, and magnitude of earthquakes which can cause significant consequences such as massive casualties and economic losses. Although the earthquakes cannot be prevented, minimization of losses can be achieved with effective disaster management. In this study, four most likely scenarios that are put forward by the geological engineers and scientists are evaluated to illustrate the potential impacts of a possible earthquake. Therefore, effects of an earthquake on physical damage, sectoral growth and post-earthquake government expend

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Maeda, Takahiro, and Hiroyuki Fujiwara. "Seismic Hazard Visualization from Big Simulation Data: Cluster Analysis of Long-Period Ground-Motion Simulation Data." Journal of Disaster Research 12, no. 2 (2017): 233–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2017.p0233.

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This paper describes a method of extracting the relation between the ground-motion characteristics of each area and a seismic source model, based on ground-motion simulation data output in planar form for many earthquake scenarios, and the construction of a parallel distributed processing system where this method is implemented. The extraction is realized using two-stage clustering. In the first stage, the ground-motion indices and scenario parameters are used as input data to cluster the earthquake scenarios within each evaluation mesh. In the second stage, the meshes are clustered based on t

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Demirdag, Ismail, and Anang Widhi Nirwansyah. "Unravelling the Economic Impacts." Journal of Regional and City Planning 35, no. 1 (2024): 21–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.5614/jpwk.2024.35.1.2.

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This study aimed to reveal the macroeconomic effects of the earthquakes that occurred in Türkiye in February 2023 on the country as a whole, the affected region (covering 11 provinces), and other provinces. Using secondary data obtained from data sets of various institutions, this research firstly attempted to estimate the negative effects of the February Earthquakes on the country’s GDP. The study presents a base scenario using the economic growth forecasts of international organizations such as the IMF and the World Bank for 2023 and 2024 as well as three possible loss scenarios for Türkiye,

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Mohammadi, Fariborz, Shahabodin Fuladi Moghaddam, Iman Shabanzadeh, and Shahin Behdarvand. "Cost-benefit Analysis of Earthquake Costs and Building Retrofitting Costs in Iran." Health in Emergencies & Disasters Quarterly 10, no. 03 (2025): 207–16. https://doi.org/10.32598/hdq.10.3.575.1.

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Background: This article examines the cost of financial damages caused by earthquakes in the building sector and compares it with the estimation of retrofitting in Iran. This study compares the costs of two scenarios: “Action after the earthquake” and “strengthening the structures before the earthquake.” Materials and Methods: In this study, data obtained from governorates and building retrofitting engineering companies have been used. The scope of the study is earthquakes that occurred in the geographical area of Iran. Among them, 8 earthquakes were specifically studied: Mianeh, Ahar and Ha

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Wirth, Erin A., Alex Grant, Nasser A. Marafi, and Arthur D. Frankel. "Ensemble ShakeMaps for Magnitude 9 Earthquakes on the Cascadia Subduction Zone." Seismological Research Letters 92, no. 1 (2020): 199–211. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0220200240.

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Abstract We develop ensemble ShakeMaps for various magnitude 9 (M 9) earthquakes on the Cascadia megathrust. Ground-shaking estimates are based on 30 M 9 Cascadia earthquake scenarios, which were selected using a logic-tree approach that varied the hypocenter location, down-dip rupture limit, slip distribution, and location of strong-motion-generating subevents. In a previous work, Frankel et al. (2018) used a hybrid approach (i.e., 3D deterministic simulations for frequencies &lt;1 Hz and stochastic synthetics for frequencies &gt;1 Hz) and uniform site amplification factors to create

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Maeda, Takahiro, Hiroyuki Fujiwara, Sho Akagi, and Toshihiko Hayakawa. "Cluster Analysis of the Long-Period Ground-Motion Simulation Data: Application of the Sagami Trough Megathrust Earthquake Scenarios." Journal of Disaster Research 14, no. 3 (2019): 435–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2019.p0435.

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A clustering method that classifies earthquake scenarios and the local area on the basis of similarities in the spatial distribution of ground motion was applied to long-period ground-motion data computed by a seismic wave propagation simulation. The simulation utilized a large number of seismic source models and a three-dimensional velocity structure model in which megathrust earthquakes in the Sagami Trough were assumed. The relationship between the clusters, earthquake scenario parameters, and the velocity structure model was examined. In addition, the relationship between the earthquake sc

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Maeda, Takahiro, Hiroyuki Fujiwara, Toshihiko Hayakawa, Satsuki Shimono, and Sho Akagi. "Cluster Analysis of Long-Period Ground-Motion Simulation Data with Application to Nankai Trough Megathrust Earthquake Scenarios." Journal of Disaster Research 13, no. 2 (2018): 254–61. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2018.p0254.

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We developed a clustering method combining principal component analysis and the k-means algorithm, which classifies earthquake scenarios based on the similarity of the spatial distribution of earthquake ground-motion simulation data generated for many earthquake scenarios, and applied it to long-period ground-motion simulation data for Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake scenarios. Values for peak ground velocity and relative velocity response at approximately 80,000 locations in 369 earthquake scenarios were represented by 15 principal components each, and earthquake scenarios were categorize

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Kim, Hayong, Moonsu Jo, and Jingul Joo. "Simulation of Dam Collapse Caused by Earthquakes." Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation 23, no. 5 (2023): 183–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.9798/kosham.2023.23.5.183.

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The occurrence of earthquakes on the Korean Peninsula has been increasing in recent years. However, current emergency action plans for dam and reservoir failures only consider scenarios related to flooding but ignore dam collapses caused by earthquakes. In this study, we simulated dam collapses caused by earthquakes. We focused on the Chungju Dam watershed located in the upper reaches of the Namhan River and analyzed the dam collapse and downstream impacts using the DAMBRK model. We compared the downstream impacts of dam collapse caused by earthquakes with those caused by the PMF. When the dam

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Ma, Feng, Guangsheng Zhao, Xingyu Gao, and Xiaojing Niu. "Spatial Distribution of Tsunami Hazard Posed by Earthquakes along the Manila Trench." Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 10, no. 10 (2022): 1449. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jmse10101449.

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Quantitative probability has been computed for the tsunami hazard posed by earthquakes from the Manila Trench, which has been regarded as a huge threat in the South China Sea. This study provides a spatial distribution of the tsunami hazard covering the affected area with a spatial resolution of 0.1° for disaster prevention of islands and continental coasts. The quantitative probability of the tsunami hazard is computed by an efficient model, which can realize a large amount of potential tsunami scenarios analysis in order to consider the randomness and uncertainty in earthquake magnitude, sou

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Majdi, Ali, Denise-Penelope N. Kontoni, and Hamad Almujibah. "Correlation of the Near-Fault Pulse-like Ground Motion Characteristics with the Vulnerability of Buildings." Buildings 14, no. 9 (2024): 2801. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/buildings14092801.

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Determining the impact of pulse-type earthquake characteristics on the vulnerability of base-isolated buildings under non-pounding conditions has yielded conflicting results in previous studies. Moreover, this issue has received less attention for pounding conditions, especially floor-to-floor pounding. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the correlation between pulse-type earthquake characteristics and the seismic response of buildings under both pounding and non-pounding conditions. In the first stage, three base-isolated buildings and one fixed-base building are analyzed separately un

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13

Byers, William G. "Railroad Damage Scenario Development." Earthquake Spectra 27, no. 2 (2011): 477–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.3574223.

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The approaches necessary for estimating earthquake effects on railroads are different for developing design criteria or post-earthquake response policies and for developing railroad damage scenarios. In developing design criteria or post-earthquake response policies, the probability of ground motions exceeding a particular level is a primary concern. Developing damage scenarios, on the other hand, involves describing hypothetical effects for assumed ground motions. The identification of potential problems is the greatest benefit of disaster scenario development to railroads. Developing the Gre

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Babayev, G., A. Ismail-Zadeh, and J. L. Le Mouël. "Scenario-based earthquake hazard and risk assessment for Baku (Azerbaijan)." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 10, no. 12 (2010): 2697–712. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-2697-2010.

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Abstract. A rapid growth of population, intensive civil and industrial building, land and water instabilities (e.g. landslides, significant underground water level fluctuations), and the lack of public awareness regarding seismic hazard contribute to the increase of vulnerability of Baku (the capital city of the Republic of Azerbaijan) to earthquakes. In this study, we assess an earthquake risk in the city determined as a convolution of seismic hazard (in terms of the surface peak ground acceleration, PGA), vulnerability (due to building construction fragility, population features, the gross d

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Ghasemi, Mohammad, Sadra Karimzadeh, Masashi Matsuoka, and Bakhtiar Feizizadeh. "What Would Happen If the M 7.3 (1721) and M 7.4 (1780) Historical Earthquakes of Tabriz City (NW Iran) Occurred Again in 2021?" ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 10, no. 10 (2021): 657. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijgi10100657.

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Tabriz is located in the northwest of Iran. Two huge earthquakes with magnitudes of 7.4 and 7.3 occurred there in 1780 and 1721. These earthquakes caused considerable damage and casualties in Tabriz. Using the method of scenario building, we aim to investigate what would happen if such earthquakes occurred in 2021. This scenario building was carried out using deterministic and GIS-oriented techniques to find the levels of damage and casualties that would occur. This procedure included two steps. In the first step, a database of factors affecting the destructive power of earthquakes was prepare

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Hashemi, M., and A. A. Alesheikh. "Development and implementation of a GIS-based tool for spatial modeling of seismic vulnerability of Tehran." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 12, no. 12 (2012): 3659–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-12-3659-2012.

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Abstract. Achieving sustainable development in countries prone to earthquakes is possible with taking effective measures to reduce vulnerability to earthquakes. In this context, damage assessment of hypothetical earthquakes and planning for disaster management are important issues. Having a computer tool capable of estimating structural and human losses from earthquakes in a specific region may facilitate the decision-making process before and during disasters. Interoperability of this tool with wide-spread spatial analysis frameworks will expedite the data transferring process. In this study,

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Moya, Aaron. "The MASLIS: A five-year review of Costa Rica's near real-time seismic intensity processing system." Annals of Geophysics 67 (December 3, 2024): S552. https://doi.org/10.4401/ag-9137.

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The MASLIS is an online system that displays the earthquake’s seismic intensity in near-real time. The system analyzes the data from Costa Rica’s strong motion network. When the intensity exceeds a specified intensity threshold at a number of sites, the system sends several warning messages. When it was first developed in 2019, the system was tested using scenario earthquakes. After five years of operation, this article briefly discusses its performance using actual earthquake data.

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Robinson, Tom R., Nicholas J. Rosser, Alexander L. Densmore, Katie J. Oven, Surya N. Shrestha, and Ramesh Guragain. "Use of scenario ensembles for deriving seismic risk." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115, no. 41 (2018): E9532—E9541. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1807433115.

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High death tolls from recent earthquakes show that seismic risk remains high globally. While there has been much focus on seismic hazard, large uncertainties associated with exposure and vulnerability have led to more limited analyses of the potential impacts of future earthquakes. We argue that as both exposure and vulnerability are reducible factors of risk, assessing their importance and variability allows for prioritization of the most effective disaster risk-reduction (DRR) actions. We address this through earthquake ensemble modeling, using the example of Nepal. We model fatalities from

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Sharma, Ajanta, and Farha Zaman. "The Great Assam Earthquake of 1950: A Historical Review." Senhri Journal of Multidisciplinary Studies 4, no. 1 (2019): 1–10. http://dx.doi.org/10.36110/sjms.2019.04.01.001.

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Northeast India is prone to major earthquake events due to its geographical and tectonic settings. Recurrence of the earthquakes in this part of India is frequent and associated with devastating events. Earthquake scenario in the region is very dangerous as the unplanned settlements with rise in population increased the vulnerability of human life. To understand such a risk and variability in human life and changes in natural dynamics; it is essential to know and study the past earthquake events. In northeast India, the last most devastating earthquake was the great Assam earthquake of 15th Au

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Kiratzi, A., Z. Roumelioti, Ch Benetatos, et al. "SEISIMPACT-THES: A SCENARIO EARTHQUAKE AFFECTING THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT OF THE PREFECTURE OF THESSALONIKI." Bulletin of the Geological Society of Greece 36, no. 3 (2004): 1412. http://dx.doi.org/10.12681/bgsg.16529.

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In the framework of the "SEISIMPACT-THES" project (Koutoupes et al., 2004; Savvaidis et al., 2004) a GIS database has been designed to include information on a wide range of components related to seismic risk within the broader area of the prefecture of Thessaloniki. One of these components refers to the distribution of strong ground motion produced by large earthquakes and the ability of a potential future user of the database to retrieve information regarding the distribution of strong ground motion from past destructive earthquakes in the area of Thessaloniki, as well as relative informatio

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BALENDRA, T., Z. J. LI, K. H. TAN, and C. G. KOH. "VULNERABILITY OF BUILDINGS TO LONG DISTANCE EARTHQUAKES FROM SUMATRA." Journal of Earthquake and Tsunami 01, no. 01 (2007): 71–85. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s1793431107000055.

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This study focuses on seismic vulnerability of shear wall – frame buildings in Singapore when they are subjected to far field effects of earthquakes in Sumatra. For this purpose, the demand curve was obtained based on the accelerograms of bedrock motions due to the worst earthquake scenario in Sumatra, and soil profiles of the selected sites. The recent two strong earthquakes in Sumatra were considered when the design earthquake was identified. On the other hand, the capacity curve was determined by a reliable and elegant analytical model validated by experimental results. By comparing the dem

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Mas, Erick, Bruno Adriano, Nelson Pulido, Cesar Jimenez, and Shunichi Koshimura. "Simulation of Tsunami Inundation in Central Peru from Future Megathrust Earthquake Scenarios." Journal of Disaster Research 9, no. 6 (2014): 961–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2014.p0961.

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We estimated, from twelve scenarios of potential megathrust earthquakes, the tsunami impact on the Lima-Callao region in Central Peru. In addition, we conducted hazard mapping using the local envelope of the maximum inundation simulated in these scenarios. The deterministic approach is supported by the decades of geodetic measurements in this area that characterize the interseismic strain build up since historical megathrust earthquakes. The earthquake scenarios for simulation proposed in [1] introduce spatially correlated short-wavelength slip heterogeneities to a first slip model in [2] calc

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Tarbali, Karim, and Brendon A. Bradley. "Representative ground-motion ensembles for several major earthquake scenarios in New Zealand." Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering 47, no. 4 (2014): 231–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.47.4.231-252.

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In this paper, representative ground motion ensembles for several major earthquake scenarios in New Zealand are developed. Cases considered include representative ground motions for the occurrence of Alpine, Hope and Porters Pass earthquakes in Christchurch city, and the occurrence of Wellington, Wairarapa and Ohariu fault ruptures in Wellington city. For each considered scenario rupture, ensembles of 20 and 7 ground motions are selected using the generalized conditional intensity measure (GCIM) approach, ensuring that the ground motion ensembles represent both the mean and distribution of gro

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Qonita, Zulfa, Shofia Karima, Alfi Rusdiansyah, and Ritha Riyandari. "NUMERICAL MODELING OF THE 1998 PAPUA NEW GUINEA TSUNAMI USING THE COMCOT." BAREKENG: Jurnal Ilmu Matematika dan Terapan 18, no. 1 (2024): 0349–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.30598/barekengvol18iss1pp0349-0360.

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The Papua New Guinea tsunami of 1998 is a unique phenomenon because the source of the tsunami propagation has been speculated. There was a 7.1-magnitude earthquake on July 17, 1998, at 18:49 WIT before the tsunami hit the Aitape area. However, previous studies have shown that the leading cause of the tsunami was not the earthquake but a submarine landslide. One of the steps to simulating the event is to do tsunami modeling. A tsunami propagation simulation will be conducted using Cornell Multi-grid Coupled Tsunami (COMCOT). This simulation was carried out with three scenarios to see which had

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Yenice, Zeren D., and Funda Samanlioglu. "A Multi-Objective Stochastic Model for an Earthquake Relief Network." Journal of Advanced Transportation 2020 (January 15, 2020): 1–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2020/1910632.

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Earthquake relief network involves storage and distribution of relief aid to people in need. In this paper, a new stochastic multi-objective mixed integer mathematical model is developed and implemented in Kadikoy municipality of Istanbul, Turkey in order to configure part of the earthquake relief network. The aim of the model is to help decision makers decide on the locations of storage areas for shelters pre-earthquake and distribution of shelters from these areas to temporary shelter areas post-earthquake while minimizing earthquake scenario-specific total expected distribution distance, to

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Balayar, Suresh, and Bishnu Prasad Pangali Sharma. "Earthquake Scenario in Sudur Pashchim and Karnali Provinces and its Socio-economic Impacts." Geographic Base 10 (December 31, 2023): 61–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/tgb.v10i01.71831.

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Nepal is located in a seismically active region with a long history of devastating earthquakes. Likewise, several earthquake incidents have been recorded in the Western Nepal The study aims to illustrate the earthquake scenario and analyze the socio-economic impacts in the Sudur Pashchim and Karnali Provinces. A mixed-method research approach was used to meet the objectives of the study. Two hundred households were surveyed and field observations were accomplished for primary data in the most affected areas. Moreover, secondary data were collected from official reports, online portals, news ar

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Treiman, Jerome A., and Daniel J. Ponti. "Estimating Surface Faulting Impacts from the ShakeOut Scenario Earthquake." Earthquake Spectra 27, no. 2 (2011): 315–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.3583676.

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An earthquake scenario, based on a kinematic rupture model, has been prepared for a Mw 7.8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault. The rupture distribution, in the context of other historic large earthquakes, is judged reasonable for the purposes of this scenario. This model is used as the basis for generating a surface rupture map and for assessing potential direct impacts on lifelines and other infrastructure. Modeling the surface rupture involves identifying fault traces on which to place the rupture, assigning slip values to the fault traces, and characterizing the specific displacem

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Sharma, Shweta, and B. K. Rastogi. "Earthquake-induced damage scenario simulation." Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment 23 (August 2021): 100585. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2021.100585.

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Singh, Harbans, and S. K. Som. "Earthquake triggered landslide–Indian scenario." Journal of the Geological Society of India 87, no. 1 (2016): 105–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s12594-016-0378-9.

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Thiel, Charles C. "Scenario loss earthquake damageability analysis." Structural Design of Tall Buildings 8, no. 4 (1999): 261–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/(sici)1099-1794(199912)8:4<261::aid-tal131>3.0.co;2-u.

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Negi, Ankit. "Virtual Reality Simulation of Earthquake Response of Buildings Using AI." Turkish Journal of Computer and Mathematics Education (TURCOMAT) 9, no. 2 (2018): 496–507. http://dx.doi.org/10.17762/turcomat.v9i2.13854.

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Virtual Reality Simulation of Earthquake Response of Buildings using AI is an innovative approach to designing and evaluating the structural performance of buildings during earthquakes. The simulation is based on AI technology, which provides a realistic and immersive experience of earthquake scenarios in a virtual environment. The goal is to understand the behaviour of buildings during an earthquake and identify potential weaknesses in the structure to improve the building's resilience. The VR simulation is designed to identify the physical behaviour of buildings during earthquakes, including

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Seal, Dylan M., M. Anna Nowicki Jessee, Michael W. Hamburger, and Paulo Ruiz. "Application of Scenario Earthquakes for Analysis of Seismically Triggered Landslide Hazard: A Case Study in Costa Rica." Revista Geológica de América Central 67 (July 11, 2022): 1–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.15517/rgac.v67i0.51700.

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In this study, we demonstrate the capabilities of hypothetical scenario earthquakes as a new tool for assessment of hazards associated with earthquake-triggered landslides. Costa Rica offers an ideal environment for demonstrating the utility of scenario earthquakes due to its diverse tectonic environments and associated widespread seismic hazard, rugged topography, and high landslide susceptibility. We investigate the relative influence of landslide proxies such as topographic slope, peak ground velocity (PGV), and compound topographic index (CTI), and earthquake source parameters such as magn

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Ehrenewerth, Jan. "A University-Wide Earthquake Disaster Drill." Prehospital and Disaster Medicine 2, no. 1-4 (1986): 157–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049023x00030685.

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Of all the natural disasters, none has a greater potential to cause widespread casualties and destruction of property than a large earthquake centered in an urban area. This scenario was tragically illustrated in 1976 when two large earthquakes occurred in heavily populated areas. In February, an earthquake measuring 7.6 on the Richter Scale struck Guatemala and left 30,000 dead and 100,000 people injured. In July ofthat same year, a Richter 7.8 earthquake devastated the city of Tangshan, China. The earthquake destroyed over 90% of the buildings in that city and caused the deaths of over 240,0

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Ide, Satoshi, and Hideo Aochi. "Modeling Earthquakes Using Fractal Circular Patch Models with Lessons from the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake." Journal of Disaster Research 9, no. 3 (2014): 264–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2014.p0264.

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Earthquakes occur in a complex hierarchical fault system, meaning that a realistic mechanically-consistent model is required to describe heterogeneity simply and over a wide scale. We developed a simple conceptual mechanical model using fractal circular patches associated with fracture energy on a fault plane. This model explains the complexity and scaling relation in the dynamic rupture process. We also show that such a fractal patch model is useful in simulating longterm seismicity in a hierarchal fault system by using external loading. In these studies, an earthquake of any magnitude appear

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Madden, E. H., M. Bader, J. Behrens, et al. "Linked 3-D modelling of megathrust earthquake-tsunami events: from subduction to tsunami run up." Geophysical Journal International 224, no. 1 (2020): 487–516. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggaa484.

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SUMMARY How does megathrust earthquake rupture govern tsunami behaviour? Recent modelling advances permit evaluation of the influence of 3-D earthquake dynamics on tsunami genesis, propagation, and coastal inundation. Here, we present and explore a virtual laboratory in which the tsunami source arises from 3-D coseismic seafloor displacements generated by a dynamic earthquake rupture model. This is achieved by linking open-source earthquake and tsunami computational models that follow discontinuous Galerkin schemes and are facilitated by highly optimized parallel algorithms and software. We pr

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Pranantyo, I. R., A. Cipta, H. A. Shiddiqi, and M. Heidarzadeh. "Source reconstruction of the 1969 Majene, Sulawesi earthquake and tsunami: A preliminary study." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 873, no. 1 (2021): 012054. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/873/1/012054.

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Abstract We studied the February 23rd, 1969 M7.0 Majene, Sulawesi earthquake and tsunami. It was followed by tsunami reported at five locations. At least 64 people were killed and severe damage on infrastructures were reported in Majene region. Based on damage data, we estimated that the maximum intensity of the earthquake was MMI VIII. Focal mechanisms, derived using first motion polarity analysis, indicated that the earthquake had a thrust mechanism. Furthermore, we built hypothetical earthquake scenarios based on a rectangular fault plane of 40 km × 20 km with a homogeneous slip model of 1.

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Uroš, Mario, Josip Atalić, Marija Demšić, Maja Baniček, Marta Šavor-Novak, and Alen Kadić. "Impact of devastating earthquakes in Croatia in 2020." Journal of Applied Engineering Science 22, no. 2 (2024): 239–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.5937/jaes0-50405.

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At the beginning of 2020, the area of Zagreb was hit by an earthquake of magnitude Mw5.4, where a significant number of buildings in the historic core of the city was damaged. Not long after that, at the end of the same year, a strong earthquake of magnitude Mw6.4 hit the area of Sisak-Moslavina County, which is about 50 km away from Zagreb. It was a significantly stronger earthquake that had enormous consequences for that region and much wider. Earthquakes struck during the Covid-19 pandemic and shocked the whole country. This multi-hazard scenario surprised everybody, as the country was not

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Zhuang, Jianqi, Jianbing Peng, Xinghua Zhu, and Weiliang Huang. "Scenario-Based Risk Assessment of Earthquake Disaster Using Slope Displacement, PGA, and Population Density in the Guyuan Region, China." ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information 8, no. 2 (2019): 85. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijgi8020085.

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Mega-earthquakes that occur in mountainous areas of densely populated cities are particularly catastrophic, triggering large landslides, destroying more buildings, and usually resulting in significant death tolls. In this paper, earthquake scenarios in the Guyuan Region of China are used as an example to study earthquake disaster risk assessment and a method of assessment is proposed that uses the peak ground acceleration (PGA), landslides triggered by the earthquake, and the effects on the population. The method is used to develop scenarios for earthquake disaster risk assessment along the Ha

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Poggi, Valerio, Chiara Scaini, Luca Moratto, et al. "Rapid Damage Scenario Assessment for Earthquake Emergency Management." Seismological Research Letters 92, no. 4 (2021): 2513–30. http://dx.doi.org/10.1785/0220200245.

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Abstract The rapid availability of reliable damage statistics, after the occurrence of a major earthquake, is an essential mitigation strategy to drive and support emergency intervention operations. Unfortunately, the latency in collecting and organizing actual damage information has a substantial impact on the efficiency of the initial phases of the intervention framework. To speedup preliminary management operations, a quick, although, coarse prediction of the expected damage is highly desirable. For this purpose, we have developed a system for rapid damage estimation. The system, presently

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Toland, Joseph, and Anne Wein. "A Simplified Method for Rapid Estimation of Emergency Water Supply Needs after Earthquakes." Water 13, no. 19 (2021): 2635. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/w13192635.

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Researchers are investigating the problem of estimating households with potable water service outages soon after an earthquake. Most of these modeling approaches are computationally intensive, have large proprietary data collection requirements or lack precision, making them unfeasible for rapid assessment, prioritization, and allocation of emergency water resources in large, complex disasters. This study proposes a new simplified analytical method—performed without proprietary water pipeline data—to estimate water supply needs after earthquakes, and a case study of its application in the HayW

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Yavari, Soheil, Stephanie E. Chang, and Kenneth J. Elwood. "Modeling Post-Earthquake Functionality of Regional Health Care Facilities." Earthquake Spectra 26, no. 3 (2010): 869–92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.3460359.

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This study introduces a methodology for anticipating the post-earthquake functionality of hospitals in a region. Performance levels for interacting systems (structural, nonstructural, lifeline, and personnel) in a hospital are operationally defined, empirically correlated, and probabilistically modeled using damage data from past earthquakes. Separate models are developed for buildings built before and after the 1973 California Hospital Seismic Safety Act. Performance estimates of the systems are used to anticipate overall hospital functionality. Effects of external power and water outage are

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Zhou, Bo Jia, Qun Lin Jia, and Kuang Cen. "Research of Virtual Simulation Scenario Editor for Earthquake Tabletop Exercise." Advanced Materials Research 989-994 (July 2014): 4551–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.4028/www.scientific.net/amr.989-994.4551.

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Earthquake is a small probability of unexpected events. Most of the emergency management personals did not experience the earthquake. They may cause flaws in the post-earthquake emergency response process, if they do not take part in earthquake emergency exercise. Traditional tabletop exercise, however, cannot provide a relatively realistic earthquake disaster scenes and vivid emergency background, so they need the virtual simulation exercises and drills for emergency management personnel to provide a real disaster site that is very similar to a drill. This paper presents system structure, fun

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Liu, Chenying, and Jorge Macedo. "New conditional, scenario-based, and non-conditional cumulative absolute velocity models for subduction tectonic settings." Earthquake Spectra 38, no. 1 (2021): 615–47. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/87552930211043897.

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The PEER NGA-Sub ground-motion intensity measure database is used to develop new conditional ground-motion models (CGMMs), a set of scenario-based models, and non-conditional models to estimate the cumulative absolute velocity ([Formula: see text]) of ground motions from subduction zone earthquakes. In the CGMMs, the median estimate of [Formula: see text] is conditioned on the estimated peak ground acceleration ([Formula: see text]), the time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the top 30 m of the soil ([Formula: see text]), the earthquake magnitude ([Formula: see text]), and the spectral accelera

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Cui, Qinglin, Hiromitsu Nakamura, Yoshinobu Mizui, and Hiroyuki Fujiwara. "Estimation of Direct Damage Caused by the Nankai Trough Earthquake Considering Hazard and Social Characteristics." Journal of Disaster Research 19, no. 1 (2024): 192–203. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/jdr.2024.p0192.

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The Nankai Trough Earthquake, which is estimated to have a 70%–80% probability of occurring within the next 30 years, necessitates considering various scenarios due to the extensive seismic source region and call for advancing disaster preparedness measures. Assessing direct damage caused by earthquakes is considered particularly challenging compared to assessing human and physical damage due to its intricate composition. However, the existing research in model analysis aimed at real-time estimation has yielded results, namely, the ability to promptly calculate direct damage from earthquakes u

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Hamidatou, Mouloud, Abdulla Almandous, Khalifa Alebri, Badr Alameri, and Ali Megahed. "Deterministic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for the Eastern Coast of the United Arab Emirates: Insights from the Makran Subduction Zone." Sustainability 16, no. 23 (2024): 10665. https://doi.org/10.3390/su162310665.

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Tsunamis are destructive oceanic hazards caused by underwater disturbances, mainly earthquakes. A deterministic tsunami hazard assessment for the United Arab Emirates (UAE), due to the Makran Subduction Zone (MSZ), was conducted based on the history of earthquakes in the region and considering the rapid development and urbanization of the east coast of the UAE. A variety of earthquake source scenarios was modeled, involving moment magnitudes of 8.2, 8.8, and 9.2. Tsunami travel time (TTT), run-up, flow depth, and inundation maps were generated to pinpoint the areas susceptible to tsunami hazar

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Bessason, Bjarni, Rajesh Rupakhety, and Jón Örvar Bjarnason. "Scenario-Based Seismic Risk Assessment for the Reykjavik Capital Area." Buildings 13, no. 12 (2023): 2919. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/buildings13122919.

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About two-thirds of the population in Iceland lives in the Reykjavik capital area (RCA), which is close to active volcanoes and seismic zones. In the period 1900–2019, a total of 53 earthquakes of Mw≥5.0 struck in these zones. The two largest events in the Reykjanes Peninsula, Mw6.36 and Mw6.12, occurred in 1929 and 1968, respectively. Both events were less than 20 km from the outskirts of the RCA. Late in the year 2020, the seismicity on the peninsula greatly increased due to magma intrusion and volcanic activity, which has so far resulted in three eruptions, in 2021, 2022, and 2023, and six

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Tuttle, Martitia P., Steven L. Forman, Kathleen Dyer-Williams, Kathleen Tucker, and Carlos Velez. "Paleoliquefaction Study and Earthquake Source Characterization of the Central Virginia Seismic Zone, Eastern United States." GeoHazards 6, no. 1 (2025): 13. https://doi.org/10.3390/geohazards6010013.

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In 2011, a M 5.7, earthquake struck near Mineral, Virginia, about 130 km southwest of Washington, D.C., prompting studies on paleoliquefaction to better understand the earthquake potential of the Central Virginia seismic zone and the hazard it poses to the Mid-Atlantic region. Researchers identified earthquake-induced liquefaction features along the Appomattox and Rapidan rivers, dated sediment and estimated the ages of these liquefaction features as well as features previously found along several other rivers in the seismic zone, and evaluated scenario earthquakes to constrain the locations a

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Van Dissen, R. J., J. J. Taber, W. R. Stephenson, et al. "Earthquake ground shaking hazard assessment for the Lower Hutt and Porirua areas, New Zealand." Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering 25, no. 4 (1992): 286–302. http://dx.doi.org/10.5459/bnzsee.25.4.286-302.

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Geographic variations in strong ground shaking expected during damaging earthquakes impacting on the Lower Hutt and Porirua areas are identified and quantified. Four ground shaking hazard zones have been mapped in the Lower Hutt area, and three in Porirua, based on geological, weak motion, and strong motion inputs. These hazard zones are graded from 1 to 5. In general, Zone 5 areas are subject to the greatest hazard, and Zone 1 areas the least. In Lower Hutt, zones 3 and 4 are not differentiated and are referred to as Zone 3-4. The five-fold classification is used to indicate the range of rela

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De Risi, Maria, Carlo Del Gaudio, and Gerardo Verderame. "Evaluation of Repair Costs for Masonry Infills in RC Buildings from Observed Damage Data: the Case-Study of the 2009 L’Aquila Earthquake." Buildings 9, no. 5 (2019): 122. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/buildings9050122.

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The estimation of direct and indirect losses due to earthquakes is a key issue in the Performance Based Earthquake Engineering framework. In commonly adopted loss computation tools, no specific data related to masonry infill panels, widespread in moment-resisting-frame residential buildings, are available to perform a probabilistic assessment of losses. To fill this gap, specific fragility and loss functions have been recently proposed in the last years. To assess their validity and estimate the relevance of the repair costs due to infills after earthquakes with respect to the total reconstruc

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Porter, Keith A., and Rachel Sherrill. "Utility Performance Panels in the ShakeOut Scenario." Earthquake Spectra 27, no. 2 (2011): 443–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.1193/1.3584121.

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The ShakeOut Scenario assessed earth-science impacts, physical damage, and socioeconomic impacts of a hypothetical M7.8 southern San Andreas Fault earthquake. Among many detailed studies were special studies of 12 lifelines, 7 of which were performed by panels of employees of the utilities at risk. Panels met for four hours. Panelists were presented with the scenario's earth science impacts and previously estimated damage to “upstream” lifelines. They then hypothesized a realistic outcome of the earthquake on damage and service restoration, identifying research needs and mitigation options. Th

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