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Beraduce, Janet. "Crime and the Economy: Economic Effects on the Crime Rates of Youngstown, Ohio." Youngstown State University / OhioLINK, 2010. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ysu1290443483.
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Inglis, Katharine. "Essays on the economics of crime." Thesis, University of Birmingham, 2018. http://etheses.bham.ac.uk//id/eprint/8355/.
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This thesis examines topics on the Economics of crime, with a specific focus on the application of Econometrics in studying issues around crime, community safety and policy in England and Wales. Chapters two and three highlight the gender gap in crime rates and sentencing outcomes and endeavours to identify possible causes. Utilising an ordered logistic regression model and a decomposition method, we find that differing risk preferences between men and women go some way to explaining the difference in offending rates. The analysis in chapter three uses a rich, individual-level dataset for sentencing in England and Wales and, controlling for confounding factors, we find that women are less likely than men to receive a custodial sentence when committing the same crime and receive a significantly shorter sentence when they do. Chapters four and five analyse key risk factors for “Killed or Seriously Injured” (KSI) road traffic accidents in Norfolk and Suffolk. While chapter four employs an ordered logistic regression model to identify specific risk factors, such as not wearing a seatbelt and poor visibility, chapter five adopts a more novel approach by estimating a Classification and Regression Tree (CART) model to identify groups of significant characteristics.
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Witt, Robert James. "3 essays on intemporal substitution, equilibrium unemployment and crime." Thesis, University of Essex, 1991. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.293678.
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Randle, Paul Matthew. "Essays in applied microeconomic theory : crime and defence." Thesis, University of Warwick, 2007. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/2899/.
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The first part of this thesis is concerned with tax competition when the tax receipts fund an anti-crime measure. Both the capital and criminals are mobile between two jurisdictions. The resulting pure strategy Nash equilibrium tax rates are distorted from the optimal tax by the equilibrium migration response of the rich; if positive at the equilibrium then tax competition will result in taxes that are too high whilst if it is negative taxes will be too low compared to the optimum. The best response functions of the model are tested using data from England and Wales. The possibility that they engage in tax competition cannot be ruled out. It is possible for a central government to devolve tax raising powers without the distortion occurring if they can impose an optimal sanction. This, though, is independent of the harm caused by the crime and could be politically difficult to introduce. The second part looks at the Ministry of Defence’s procurement policy since 1985. The role of competition has increased but scant attention was played to the trade-off between maximising the benefits of current competition and obtaining future competition. The Ministry of Defence always chose to take the benefits in the short term arguing any loss of competition merely eliminated excess capacity which the Ministry of Defence would no longer have to pay for. Whilst the empirics suggest this is true during the 1990s, the problems encountered on the Type 45 project at the start of the millennium demonstrate the difficulties they have in procuring given the limited number of domestic firms they can contract with. An alternative mechanism of directed buys, with recourse to a competitive market off the equilibrium path, is suggested as a way in which the Ministry of Defence can preserve competition into the future.
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Han, Lu. "Economic Analyses of Crime in England and Wales." Thesis, University of Birmingham, 2010. http://etheses.bham.ac.uk//id/eprint/584/.
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This thesis includes three empirical studies detecting the determinants of crime in England and Wales. We firstly apply time series analyses to look for cointegrating relationships between property crimes and unemployment as well as law enforcement instruments. We extend our study by employing panel data and corresponding techniques to control for area-specific fixed effects as well as the endogeneity of law enforcement variables. In our third study, we allow crime rate to have spatial spillover effect, in other words, the crime rate in one area is affected by, in addition to its local crime-influential factors, the crime rates and crime-related factors in its neighbouring areas. We demonstrate this result by constructing a theoretical model and testing it by applying spatial analysis regressions. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: First, property crimes are better explained by economic models of crime than violent crimes. Second, law enforcement instruments always have negative effects on both property and violent crimes, indicating their deterrence and incapacitation effects as predicted. Third, social-economic factors, such as unemployment and income level, have two effects on property crimes: opportunity and motivation. Their net effects on property crime rates depend on the type of crime as well as the time period being examined. And finally, there is indeed spillover effect existing in crime rate. For burglary, theft and handling, and robbery, the crime rate in one area is positively and significantly correlated with the crime rates from its neighbouring areas. Furthermore, the crime rate of sexual offences of one area is negatively related to such crime rates in neighbouring areas.
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Graham, Mark Charles. "Economics of crime and punishment : with reference to the Scottish criminal justice system." Thesis, University of Edinburgh, 1990. http://hdl.handle.net/1842/23945.
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Wadsworth, Thomas P. "Employment, crime, and context : a multi-level analysis of the relationship between work and crime /." Thesis, Connect to this title online; UW restricted, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/8872.
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Long, Iain William. "Essays on the economics of crime." Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 2012. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/416/.
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I present three essays on the economics of crime. The first considers an activity associated with 55% of all criminal offences in the UK: binge drinking. One group inextricably linked with such behaviour is the sports team. Members regularly engage in post-match drinking, where the team's reputation is at stake. Teams often apply peer pressure (the threat of punishment for refusal to compete) to ensure each member gets involved. Chapter 1 presents a simple model of competitive drinking, and evaluates the amount of peer pressure a team needs to apply when multiple equilibria exist. The thesis then turns attention towards criminal organisations. Chapter 2 discusses the use of initiation by protection rackets. Such rituals are widely used, and serve several purposes. Firstly, they allow initiates' skills to be assessed. Secondly, they act as an incentive to invest in skills. Thirdly, they signal to the racket's customers. The chapter derives conditions on the underlying distribution of abilities such that a racket can adjust initiation difficulty to improve its reputation. It then discusses these conditions in light of "key player" policies, suggesting they may be more effective than previously thought. Chapter 3 evaluates the impact of a variety of anti-crime policies on how a criminal gang recruits. Gangs counteract policy effects by adjusting the wage they offer and the intensity of violence they require their members to inflict. This can lead to policies backfiring; increasing the social cost of the gang. A policy which reduces the youths' incentive to join a gang leaves only hardened criminals as recruits. If gang size and violence are weak revenue complements, this causes the gang to substitute towards more violence. Policies are therefore most effective when they not only reduce the incentive to join the gang, but also increase youths' sensitivity towards inflicting violence.
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Grings, Maicon. "Análise exploratória espacial da criminalidade no estado do Rio Grande do Sul." Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Parana, 2015. http://tede.unioeste.br:8080/tede/handle/tede/1008.
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Previous issue date: 2015-12-01The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of socioeconomic variables in the indexes of economic crimes in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. Thus, a descriptive analysis of economic crimes and crimes against the individual took place. Then, it was necessary to map crime, to identify each cluster group of crimes under study; and finally identify factors that may influence the rates of economic crimes for the State of Rio Grande do Sul. The theme shows importance, since it depicts one of the biggest problems faced by contemporary society. Therefore, discussions about the topic promote inferences that provide the creation of public policies aimed to combating crime. In order to meet such a proposal, this study was based on models of the Space Econometrics. For the implementation of the study, secondary databases were used from official sources such as the Department of Public Security of Rio Grande do Sul State (SSP / RS), Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA), Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and the Department of SUS (DATASUS). As a result, it highlights the space concentration of economic crimes, especially in the metropolitan area of Porto Alegre and the coastal region of the state. It also highlights the positive effect that IFDM variables - income and employment, Bolsa Familia and GINI Index presented in relation to the dependent variable Economic Crimes, and the negative effect that the variable rate of illiteracy presented regarding the dependent variable. Among the conclusions of this research, there is the motivational issue involving each group of crime. It plays an important role in the commission of the tort, that is verified by the spatial distribution of crime in the state. The Bolsa Familia program, contrary to what was expected, did not appear as a variable that tends to help decrease crime rates against property in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. It is concluded, finally, that the concentration of income is the main variable that causes the increase in economic crimes. However, education is the main factor that helps reduce economic crimes in the state of Rio Grande do Sul.
A proposta deste estudo é analisar o impacto das variáveis socioeconômicas nos índices de crimes econômicos no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Neste intuito, buscou-se primeiramente realizar uma análise descritiva dos crimes econômicos e crimes contra a pessoa; em um segundo momento realizar um mapeamento da criminalidade, a fim de identificar cluster de cada grupo de crimes em estudo; e por fim identificar fatores que possam influenciar os índices de crimes econômicos para o Estado do Rio Grande do Sul. O tema se mostra de suma importância, uma vez que retrata um dos maiores problemas enfrentados pela sociedade contemporânea, por conseguinte, discussões em torno da temática promovem inferências que proporcionam a criação de políticas públicas que visam o combate da criminalidade. Com o propósito de atender tal proposta, o presente estudo baseou-se nos modelos da Econometria Espacial. Para a execução do estudo, foram utilizadas bases de dados secundários procedentes de fontes oficiais como a Secretaria de Segurança Pública do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul (SSP/RS), Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA), Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) e Departamento de Informática do SUS (DATASUS). Como resultados, destacam-se a concentração espacial dos crimes econômicos, principalmente na região metropolitana de Porto Alegre e na região litorânea do Estado. Também destaca-se o efeito positivo que as variáveis IFDM Renda e Emprego, Bolsa Família e Índice de GINI apresentaram em relação à variável dependente Crimes Econômicos, e o efeito negativo que a variável taxa de analfabetismo apresentou com relação à variável dependente. Dentre as conclusões desta pesquisa, nota-se que a questão motivacional que envolve cada grupo de crimes tem um papel importante para o cometimento do ato ilícito, isso se verifica pela distribuição espacial da criminalidade no Estado. O Programa Bolsa Família, ao contrário do que se esperava, não se apresentou como uma variável que tende a auxiliar a diminuição dos índices de criminalidade contra o patrimônio no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Conclui-se, por fim, que a concentração de renda é a principal variável que acarreta o aumento dos crimes econômicos, entretanto, por sua vez, a educação é o principal fator que auxilia na diminuição dos crimes econômicos no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul.
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Davis, Heather Monique. "Gender, crime and marginal youth, assessing an integrated theory approach to studying economic survival strategies of street youth." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2000. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/ftp01/MQ55666.pdf.
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Armentrout, Elizabeth G. "An Analysis of Adler's Theory and the Female Criminal." Thesis, University of North Texas, 2004. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc4642/.
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This research paper addressed the following question: Do select case studies conform to Dr. Freda Adler's theory regarding socio-economic influences on female criminal behavior or dispute her theory? My research involved three female criminals: Karla Faye Tucker, Andrea Yates, and Susan Smith. I addressed Adler's theory in detail, other theories, the makeup of the female criminal and various female crimes. This study provided evidence that all three case studies conform to Adler's theory. nIn accordance with Adler's theory, each of these three females committed crimes of accessibility. None of the three individuals sought to commit a premeditated act or to murder unknown victims. They were motivated by emotions arising at a point in time when access/opportunity presented itself.
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Amaral, Sofia. "Essays on crime and gender in India." Thesis, University of Birmingham, 2015. http://etheses.bham.ac.uk//id/eprint/5901/.
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This thesis investigates the relation between legal institutions, strengthening of legal rights and criminal behaviour in India with a focus on the gender gap in access and welfare. In Chapter 1 I provide an overview of the determinants of violence against women in India using micro-level data. In Chapter 2 I investigate how strengthening women’s legal rights affects women’s position within the household. I find that following the amendments to the major inheritance law in India reported and self-reported violence against women fell. This result is explained by an improvement in husbands’ behaviour and in marriage market negotiations. Finally, in Chapter 3 of this thesis, I analyse the implications of missing women on overall crime and on violence against women by investigating the relationship between uneven sex ratio and illegal behaviour. Using district-level information of age-specific sex ratios, I estimate the effect of a surplus of males at crime and marriage prone-ages on violence against women, general violence, acquisitive crime and aggregate gender-specific juvenile delinquency. I find a negative relation between sex ratio of the crime-prone age cohorts and violence against women.
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Matta, Marcelo Cabistani da. "A sanção penal entre o crime e o potencial criminoso : uma abordagem jurídico-econômico da pena." reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/14267.
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Essa dissertação tem como objetivo apresentar uma análise acerca do comportamento do delinqüente em relação ao quantum de pena previsto no Código Penal brasileiro, possuindo como fundamento a teoria economicista do crime e a legislação penal apresentada. Parte-se, em um primeiro momento, para uma explicação da evolução da sanção penal, destacando as teorias que explicam as finalidades das penas. Dá-se ênfase a dois grandes grupos teóricos: teorias absolutas da pena, que utilizam a pena como um juízo de reprovação/retribuição, e as teorias relativas da pena, que fazem da sanção penal um instrumento para impedir que novos crimes aconteçam (prevenção). Na seqüência, apresentase o modelo econômico básico do crime, desenvolvido por Becker (1968) e seus fundamentos teóricos em Beccaria (1764), em Bentham (1781) e na teoria da escolha racional. Esclarece-se que o modelo economicista do crime enquadra-se entre as teorias relativas da pena (prevenção). Ressalta-se que o instituto da pena é um dos principais mecanismos que o Estado possui para alterar o comportamento de potenciais infratores. Explica-se que o sistema criminal brasileiro estabelece como finalidade da pena tanto a reprovação quanto a prevenção. No entanto, considerando que o delinqüente é um ser racional, capaz de antecipar a quantidade de pena a que estaria sujeito caso fosse capturado e condenado, conclui-se que a pena, no contexto da legislação brasileira, perde a sua finalidade precípua de prevenção, uma vez que o agente criminoso constata que seu custo “real” é menor que seu custo “potencial”. Dessa maneira, embora no sistema criminal nacional, a pena possua como fim a reprovação e a prevenção, percebe-se reduzidas as suas características de prevenção, fazendo realmente do crime uma outra atividade, passível de ser realizada por aqueles que assim desejarem.The goal of this work is to present an analysis concerning the criminal's behavior in relation to the quantity of punishment foreseen in the Brazilian Penal Code, having as fundaments the economic theory of crime and the penal legislation presented. In a first moment, it does an explanation of the evolution of the penal sanction, pointing out the theories that explain the purposes of the punishment. It does emphasis for two great theoretical groups: absolute theories of the punishment, that it uses the penalty as retribution, and the relative theories of the punishment, that it utilizes the penal sanction as an instrument to impede that new crimes happen (prevention). In the sequence, it presents the economic basic model of crime, developed by Becker (1968) and their theoretical fundaments in Beccaria (1764), in Bentham (1781) and in the theory of the rational choice. It is explained that the economic model of crime is framed among the relative theories of the punishment (prevention). It shows that the institute of the punishment is one of the main mechanisms that the State uses to alter the potentials offenders' behavior. It is explained that the Brazilian criminal system establishes as purpose of the punishment as much the retribution as the prevention. However, considering that the criminal is a rational being, capable to anticipate the amount of punishment that would be subject case was captured and convict, it concludes that the penality, in the context of the Brazilian legislation, loses its essential purpose of prevention, once the criminal agent verifies that his "real" cost is smaller than his "potential" cost. In this way, even though in the national criminal system, the punishment has as purpose the retribution and the prevention, it is possible to note that the characteristics of the prevention have been reduced, making the crime as one other activity, susceptible to be accomplished by those who want to do that.
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Pereira, Victor Cosenza dos Santos. "Uma análise das relações entre armas de fogo e homicídios no Brasil." Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, 2014. http://www.bdtd.uerj.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=8910.
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Nas últimas três décadas, o Brasil produziu mais de um milhão de mortos por homicídios, alcançando assim a triste posição de 18 país com maior taxa de mortes violentas no mundo (GENEVADECLARATIONON ARMED VIOLENCE AND DEVELOPMENT, 2011). Para solucionar tal problema, diversos esforços privados e públicos foram feitos, tendo sido o Estatuto de Desarmamento um dos esforços de maior destaque. No entanto, apesar de decorridos mais de dez anos após a promulgação desta legislação, a literatura econômica sobre o crime ainda não é unânime acerca dos efeitos das armas de fogo sobre os crimes violentos. Com a intenção de analisar estes efeitos, esta dissertação investiga as diferentes abordagens da Teoria Econômica do Crime e elabora um modelo teórico capaz de respaldar a análise empírica. Esta análise, por sua vez, avalia as relações entre armas de fogo e homicídios por perfuração de arma de fogo no Brasil e no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, por meio de Vetores Auto Regressivos em painel. Dos resultados obtidos, conclui-se que os efeitos entre armas e homicídios variam de acordo com as heterogeneidades locais, não sendo possível extrapolar os mesmos.Over the last three decades, Brazil produced over one million deaths by homicide.This puts Brazil in a sad position of the 18thcountry with the highest rates of violent deaths in the world (GENEVA DECLARATION ON ARMED VIOLENCE AND DEVELOPMENT, 2011). To solve this problem, many private and public efforts had been made. One effort with major prominence is the Disarmament Statute. Since the promulgation of this legislation over ten years ago,the economic literature about crimeis still not unanimous about the effectsof firearms on violent crimes. To analyze these effects, this dissertationinvestigates thedifferent approachesof the Economic Theory of Crimeand elaborateson a theoretical modelable to supportthe empirical analysis. This analysisevaluatesthe relations between firearms and homicides byfirearm perforationin Brazilandin the Rio Grande do Sul state, usingpanel Vector Autoregressives. It is concluded thatthe effectsbetweenfirearms and homicides varyaccording tolocal heterogeneities, being impossible to extrapolate this results.
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Knutsson, Douglas, and Jonathan Herlitz. "Med livet framför sig : En studie om hur åldern vid brottsdebuten påverkar framtidsutsikter." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Nationalekonomiska institutionen, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-317543.
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Denna studie undersöker förhållandet mellan unga brottslingars ålder vid den första lagföringenoch deras livsutfall. Genom att använda oss av unika data från The Stockholm Birth Cohort Study(SBC) kan vi följa individerna upp till 27 års ålder i administrativa register. Detta gör det möjligtför oss att observera kriminellt beteende både för individer över och understraffmyndighetsåldern. Vi finner att personer som begår brott i tidig ålder har en signifikanthögre risk att återfalla i brott jämfört med personer där brottsdebuten sker relativt sent; såledeskan åldern vid brottsdebuten påverka individers framtidsutsikter både direkt och indirekt.This study examines the correlation between the age of individuals’ first appearance in policerecords and their outcomes in life. By using unique data from The Stockholm Birth Cohort Study(SBC) we are able to follow individuals up to the age of 27 in administrative registers. Thisenables us to observe criminal behavior for individuals both above and below the age of criminalresponsibility. We find that people engaging in crime in early ages have a significantly higherrisk of relapsing into crime compared to people with a relatively late criminal debut, thus the ageof a criminal debut directly and indirectly may affect the prospects of individuals.
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Malmqvist, Johan, and Emma Björkman. "Revision mot Ekobrott : En studie om sambandet mellan revision och den ekonomiska brottsligheten i små svenska aktiebolag." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Företagsekonomi, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-138817.
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BAKGRUND: Sedan revisionsplikten avskaffades 2010 har inte fastställts hur den ekonomiska brottsligheten påverkats av att små svenska aktiebolag inte längre revideras. Trots att Ekobrottsmyndigheten varnat för att avsaknaden av revisor kan vara en riskfaktor för ökad ekonomisk brottslighet pågår en utredning om att utöka gränsvärdena för revisionsplikten för svenska aktiebolag. SYFTE: Studien syftar till att förklara sambandet mellan revision och förekomsten av ekonomisk brottslighet i små svenska aktiebolag. METOD: Denna kvantitativa studie har ett deduktivt angreppssätt. Utifrån agentteori, resursberoendeteori och beslutsteori har en hypotes formulerats. En tvär-snittsdesign har använts och sekundärdata, främst bestående av räkenskaps-information, har analyserats med Chi2-test och logistisk regression. SLUTSATS: Studiens analys visar på ett svagt negativt samband mellan revisor och ekonomisk brottslighet, vilket innebär att resultatet indikerar att ekonomisk brottslighet är mer förekommande i bolag som väljer bort revisorn. Vidare minskar revisorn risken för att ekonomisk brottslighet förekommer inom små aktiebolag med 10,35 procentenheter.INTRODUCTION: Since voluntary audit was introduced in 2010, it has not been established how the economic crime in Swedish SMEs has been affected by no longer being revised. Although the Swedish Economic Crime Authority has warned that the absence of an auditor may affect the risk of increased economic crime, a debate about whether to increase the limit of voluntary audit has arisen. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to explain the relationship between audit and economic crime in Swedish SMEs. METHOD: This quantitative study is based on a deductive approach. Based on agency theory, resource dependence theory and decision theory a hypothesis has been developed. A cross-sectional design has been used and secondary data, mainly from financial statements, has been analysed using Chi2-test and logistic regression. CONCLUSION: In the analysis, a weak negative correlation between auditor and economic crime is presented. I.e. the results indicate that the risk of economic crime is more prevalent in companies without an auditor. Further, the auditor reduces the risk of economic crime in Swedish SMEs with 10,35 percentage points.
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Cabral, Maria Viviana de Freitas. "Avaliação do impacto do INFOCRIM sobre as taxas de homicídios dos municípios paulistas: uma aplicação do método de diferenças em diferenças espacial." Universidade Federal de Juiz de Fora (UFJF), 2016. https://repositorio.ufjf.br/jspui/handle/ufjf/2572.
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A reversão dos índices de crime no estado de São Paulo tem despertado o interesse dos pesquisadores em verificar as possíveis causas para a redução de 67,1% nas taxas de homicídios no período de 2000 a 2010. Diversos fatores têm sido apontados para explicar esse fenômeno, porém não foi encontrado na literatura, até o momento, estudos que avaliassem o Sistema de Informações Criminais – INFOCRIM, adotado por 67 municípios paulistas até o ano de 2010. Desse modo, este trabalho tem o objetivo de testar a hipótese de que o INFOCRIM tenha contribuído para a redução das taxas de homicídios entre 2000 e 2010, controlando por diversos determinantes do crime e por outras iniciativas de segurança pública. Para isso, foi realizada uma avaliação de tratamento por meio da abordagem das diferenças-em-diferenças espacial (SDID), método pioneiro capaz de modelar a migração do crime das regiões tratadas para regiões vizinhas. O grupo de tratamento foi definido como os 67 municípios contemplados pelo INFOCRIM, ao passo que o grupo de controle foi definido como os 548 municípios paulistas remanescentes na amostra. Por meio de um painel de dados de dois períodos (2000 e 2010), o modelo de defasagem espacial (SDID-SAR) evidenciou a existência de transbordamentos espaciais (migração de crime) entre os municípios paulistas e um efeito redutor do crime devido ao INFOCRIM. Em termos de efeitos totais, o INFOCRIM reduziu a taxa de homicídios em 6,183 entre 2000 e 2010. Quanto aos efeitos diretos, o Programa reduziu a taxa de homicídios em 3,745, enquanto, em termos de efeitos indiretos, o INFOCRIM diminuiu a taxa de homicídios em 2,437 durante esse período. Isso implica que a interação espacial existente entre os agentes reforçou o efeito médio do INFOCRIM. Os resultados corroboraram a relação positiva entre crime e desemprego e a relação inversa entre crime e educação. A melhoria da equidade social contribuiu para a redução da criminalidade violenta enquanto o adensamento populacional apresentou sinal contrário ao esperado. Há um efeito dissuasor indireto sobre as taxas de homicídios decorrente da existência de guarda municipal armada. Em termos de vidas poupadas, o Estado de São Paulo foi capaz de minimizar os prejuízos sociais decorrentes da criminalidade, uma vez que a implementação do INFOCRIM evitou 2.546 homicídios de 2000 até 2010. Portanto, o INFOCRIM pode ser considerado um Programa exitoso no combate à criminalidade letal.
The reversal of the trend of crime rates in the state of São Paulo has arisen the interest of researchers to verify the possible causes for the reduction of 67.1% in homicide rate from 2000 to 2010. Several factors have been suggested to explain this phenomenon, but it was not found in the literature, so far, researches to evaluate the Criminal Information System – INFOCRIM, adopted by 67 municipalities in São Paulo until 2010. Thus this work is aimed at testing the hypothesis that INFOCRIM has contributed to the reduction in homicide rate between 2000 and 2010, controlling for determinants of crime and other public security actions. To do so, a treatment evaluation is performed using the spatial difference-in- differences (SDID) approach, a pioneering method able to model the crime migration from the treated regions to their neighboring regions. The treatment group is defined as being the 67 municipalities with INFOCRIM whereas the control group is defined as being 548 municipalities remaining in the sample. Using two-period panel data (2000 and 2010), the spatial lag model (SDID-SAR) indicated the existence of spatial spillovers (crime migration) among municipalities in the São Paulo state and a crime reducing effect of INFOCRIM. As to total effects, INFOCRIM reduced homicide rate by 6.183 over the period 2000-2010. In terms of direct terms, the program decreased homicide rate by 3.745, while, in terms of indirect effects, INFOCRIM reduced homicide rate by 2.437 during this period. . This implies that the spatial interaction between agents enhanced the average effect of INFOCRIM. These findings confirmed the positive relation between crime and unemployment and the inverse relation between crime and education. The improvement of social equity contributed to the reduction of violent crime while the population density showed a sign contrary to theoretically expected. There is an indirect effect on homicide rate due to the existence of municipal guard. In terms of lives saved, the Government of the State of São Paulo was able to minimize the social loss from offenses, since the implementation of INFOCRIM has avoided 2,546 homicides over the period 2000-2010. Therefore, the INFOCRIM can be considered successful in fighting lethal crime.
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Zuber, Franziska. "Essays on Economic Crime." St. Gallen, 2007. http://www.biblio.unisg.ch/org/biblio/edoc.nsf/wwwDisplayIdentifier/02603009002/$FILE/02603009002.pdf.
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Oliveira, Cristiano Aguiar de. "Ensaios em economia do crime : dissuasão, armas e carreira criminosa." reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/36099.
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Esta Tese é composta por dois ensaios, nos quais são apresentados modelos teóricos de Economia do Crime. O primeiro estuda o impacto de políticas de controle de armas sobre o crime através de um modelo teórico de crime e autodefesa com o uso de armas. As principais conclusões são que mudanças nos payoffs geram equilíbrios distintos, além disso, o controle de armas leva a uma redução nos crimes com armas e que estas políticas são mais eficientes quando afetam os custos tanto de criminosos quanto das vítimas. O segundo propõe um modelo dinâmico baseado em opções reais para avaliar a carreira criminosa. No modelo, os indivíduos podem escolher o melhor momento para se engajar no crime (atividade ilegal). Através da calibragem do modelo é possível observar que a opção por uma carreira criminosa depende de um retorno alto na atividade ilegal mesmo quando os indivíduos são neutros ao risco e possuem uma taxa de desconto intertemporal baixa.This Thesis is composed by two essays, which theoretical models of economics of crime are presented. The first studies the impact of gun control policies on crime trough a theoretical model of crime and self-defense with guns. The main conclusions are that payoffs change generates different equilibriums, besides, gun control implies on a decrease of gun crimes and that such policies are more effective when affects both criminals and victims costs. The former purpose a dynamic model based on real options to evaluate the criminal career. In the model, individuals can choose the best moment to get in crime. Through model calibration is possible to observe that the option for a criminal career depends on a high return in the illegal activity even when individuals are risk neutral and when they have a low time discount.
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Marçal, Gonçalo Simões. "Uma crise das ideias económicas : uma perspectiva histórica." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/7737.
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Mestrado em EconomiaEste trabalho propõe-se analisar a presente crise das ideias económicas a partir de uma perspectiva histórica. Para o efeito, proceder-se-á ao levantamento de algumas crises das ideias económicas ocorridas no passado, bem como a um resumo alargado dos factores que estão na origem da presente crise. A análise centra-se na dimensão teórica das crises em estudo e na sua resolução. Com o intuito de comparar as diferentes crises analisadas, procuraremos identificar mecanismos comuns à evolução das mesmas, bem como avaliar o estado de evolução da presente crise. Além disso, procuraremos determinar, de modo global, qual o papel desempenhado pelas crises das ideias económicas na evolução do conhecimento teórico-económico.
The purpose of the present work is to evaluate the current crisis of economic ideas from a historical standpoint. To that end, we will offer a brief survey of a few major crises of economic ideas occurred in the past, as well as an analysis of the different factors responsible for the present crisis. We will focus on the theoretical dimension of the crises and their solutions. Aiming to compare the different crises under analysis, we will try to identify mechanisms shared by all of them, and thereby to assess the current state of evolution of the present crisis. Moreover, on a larger scale, we will try to determine the role played by the crises of economic ideas within the evolution of theoretical knowledge.
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Castillo, Valencia María del Pilar. "Economics theory of political kidnapping : theory and evidency for the case of the FARC in Colombia." reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/132922.
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O objetivo desta tese é explicar a redução nas taxas de sequestros políticos na Colômbia nos últimos anos a partir da análise do comportamento estratégico dos criminosos. Pontos de vista convencionais explicam a diminuição dos sequestros como o resultado exitoso da política de segurança democrática do presidente Álvaro Uribe Vélez. No entanto, até agora, tem sido desconsiderada a busca de explicações alternativas à já existente, que bem poderiam ser encontradas a partir da perspectiva de análise dos dilemas organizacionais produzidos pelos sequestros nas FARC – Forças Armadas Revolucionárias da Colômbia –, da sua interação estratégica com o governo e, em particular, de seus efeitos sobre sua atividade global e na decisão de pôr fim a essa ação criminosa. O interesse dos três ensaios que compõem esta tese é estudar as motivações deste grupo rebelde, sob o enfoque da teoria da agência, dividindo sua estrutura organizativa entre líderes (principal), que tomam as decisões estratégicas, e os combatentes (agentes), que as realizam, em um contexto de informação assimétrica, para tomar decisões racionais. Cada ensaio desenvolve a partir de diferentes perspectivas, mas tendo como base o enfoque racional de principal-agente, as razões que levaram a organização a renunciar a uma de suas atividades criminosas, considerada no princípio como uma ação estratégica eficiente que obrigaria o governo colombiano a negociar. O primeiro ensaio está focado em mostrar os custos de transação que gerou essa estratégia para os agentes e o principal. Esta análise faz uso dos mesmos instrumentos analíticos empregados para analisar os custos de qualquer transação econômica que leva a cabo uma organização legal. Mostrando que os custos dessa atividade foram altos, expressados, primeiro, em um conflito de interesses entre o líder, encarregado de esquematizar e designar tarefas, e os agentes, responsáveis por sua execução. A divergência entre estas duas partes teve origem em uma mudança nas expectativas dos agentes, que preferiam mais atividades de combate às relacionadas com o sequestro, em um contexto de perseguição constante do exército colombiano. O segundo ensaio estuda como essa mesma estratégia afetou o contexto no qual os agentes definem suas preferências. Através do uso de três enfoques diferentes da teoria econômica se expõem três interpretações diversas da mudança nas preferências dos agentes: a) uma mudança no risco; b) uma divergência entre as preferências subjacentes e induzidas; c) a presença de dimensões motivacionalmente salientes. E o terceiro ensaio apresenta um modelo formal para estabelecer um sistema de compensações eficiente que o principal oferece ao agente para atenuar o que sobre seu comportamento gerou o sequestro. Os resultados mostram que, considerando que os recursos das organizações armadas ilegais são escassos, quanto maiores são os incentivos oferecidos aos agentes para evitar que desertem, menor é a capacidade da organização para penalizar os desertores e menor a utilidade do principal. Simulando o modelo para um conjunto específico de parâmetros se conclui que a incorporação do mecanismo de autocumprimento (self-enforcing) dentro da função de utilidade do principal aumenta seus custos e propicia o baixo esforço do agente e seu comportamento oportunista.The objective of this thesis is to explain the reduction in the rate of political kidnapping in Colombia in recent years by means of analyzing the strategic behavior of its perpetrators. This is the basic question addressed in this thesis. Conventional views interpret the fall in the kidnapping rate as an outcome of President Álvaro Uribe’s democratic security policy. I will argue, however, that this is not the whole story, since political kidnapping led Farc [for its acronym in Spanish, Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia] into an unprecedented strategic situation that induced a breach between leader (principal) and combatant (agent) concerns with strong effects on its overall activity and its decision to stop that criminal action. The focus of three essays making up this thesis is on studying FARC’s motivations from the perspective of agency theory, by splitting its organizational structure into principals and agents who are acting on a setting of asymmetrical information. Each essay develops, from different perspectives, the reasons that led the organization to give up that criminal activity due to the substantial political and organizational risks involved. The first essay is focused on the transactions costs generated by the kidnapping strategy both for agents and principals. This analysis is based on the same theoretical tools used to study the costs held by any legal organization. I found that the costs of kidnapping were high, expressed first in a conflict of interest between the leader –responsible for designing and assigning tasks—and the agents in charge of its implementation. The divergence was due to a shift in the expectations of agents who preferred combat activities over the menial tasks associated with kidnapping, in a context of heavy pressure by the Colombian Army. In contradistinction to legal organizations in which such type of divergence can be solved, in part, by paying higher wages to agents in order to extract their best effort, this alternative is not feasible for FARC, for those who joined the organization are supposed to have an ideological and political commitment. The second essay studies how the kidnapping strategy affected the preferences of agents and their behavior by means of using three different approaches from economic theory: (a) a change in risk, (b) a divergence between underlying and induced preferences and, (c) the presence of salient motivational dimensions. The third essay examines, through a principal-agent model, the nature of the trade-off between incentives and enforcing mechanisms that the leadership of an Armed illegal organization offers to its agents. Using a MATLAB’s optimization tool-box, I computed the optimal transfer system for a given parameterization of the model, and analyzed its properties. The numerical analysis shows that the inclusion of a self-enforcing mechanism on the leader’s objective function increases the costs for the principal and could lead agents to choose low efforts and engage in opportunistic behavior.
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Ozkan, Kadir. "Theoretising the foundational concepts of the process of financial crimes in comparative economic systems : an attempt in grounded theory." Thesis, Durham University, 2014. http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/10934/.
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Financial crimes have become one of the most destructive types of crime in post-industrial societies in terms of economic and financial consequences. While the importance of financial institutions in the modern economic system cannot be negated, their critical function in the society with their enormous powers brings about many questions, especially in relation to systems of checks and balances. The increasing number of adverse examples in the last decades provide evidence for the enormous negative consequences of corporate failures resulting from shortcomings in the checks and balances. This study, hence, is motivated by the current financial failures, and aims at exploring and examining financial crimes in terms of the process of becoming a financial white-collar criminal in various financial systems, namely capitalist, socialist and Islamic systems, as well as exploring the vulnerability and propensity of each system in relation to financial crimes. In addition, this study, departing from the shortcomings of Eurocentric understanding and referring to cultural and religious norms, aims to re-conceptualise some of the concepts, subcategories and dimensions with the objective of developing and theorising an improved version of rational choice theory in criminology for a better comparison. In fulfilling the aims of the study, a discourse analysis approach through a deconstruction method is utilised to locate and identify the underpinnings of the existing theoretical frameworks through comparative case study as a method, by comparing extreme cases of market/capitalist finance, socialist/transitional and Islamic/moral finance. In addition, grounded theory is used as a method to construct a modified version of the existing theories by using a number of formal codes such as ‘motivation’, ‘environment’, ‘target’, ‘guardian’ as concepts and ‘opportunity spaces’, ‘real, perceived selves’, ‘ideal and feared’, ‘need and guarding gaps’, ‘haste’, ‘expectations’, ‘deviance’, ‘crime motivation’, ‘act of crime’ etc. as subcategories and ‘material’, ‘social’ and ‘moral’ as dimensions. Such an attempt is rationalised on the ground that the current criminology theories are unfortunately linear theories and they do not make decisions about a regular person. Therefore, there is no crime theory that is confident enough to receive a regular person and make dynamic, relativist, complex analysis about them in prospect, depending on the changing conditions of the inner and outer world of the individual, unlike the ‘complex theory of crime’ produced by this research through grounded theory. A comparative analysis to order the financial systems according to their vulnerability to financial crimes is also provided in this study using the ‘opportunity spaces’ concept of the grounded theory which develops the classical ‘opportunity’ argument of the rational choice theory to almost a small theory of opportunity. This analysis suggests that the most vulnerable financial system to financial crime is the market based financial system, which is followed by socialist/transitional and Islamized financial systems. The comparative analysis of the study on crime propensities of financial systems also confirms the literature on economic and financial systems that argues that the financial systems are converging despite their strong and distinctive ontological and epistemological differences and capacities to enrich and improve each other. The theoretical model developed in this study reveals that crime motivation is only an extension of ordinary motivation and has a dynamic nature. Dynamic in both the micro world of the individual and his/her close social/physical environment and also the macro environment in terms of the wider space of political-economy and social culture. This study fills an important gap in criminology literature which has been sought for decades since the 1970s. Indeed, the resultant theory in this study is unique in its approach because it is a micro-founded macro theory, unlike all the criminology theories which have either micro (biological, psychological theories, control theories) or macro (i.e. symbolic interactions, social bonds theory, life-course theory, conflict theory) foundations.
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Ramos, Marcelo Valença. "Releitura sistêmico-teórica das relações entre direito, política e economia: a crise de 2008 como ponto de inflexão para a emergência do constitucionalismo societal." Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, 2014. http://www.bdtd.uerj.br/tde_busca/arquivo.php?codArquivo=8615.
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O trabalho busca na teoria dos sistemas de Niklas Luhmann, tal como desenvolvida por Gunther Teubner, Marcelo Neves e outros doutrinadores, elementos para explicar as relações entre os subsistemas jurídico, político e econômico na sociedade contemporânea. Com base nas ferramentas teóricas obtidas, revisa o conceito de constituição econômica como a relação de acoplamento estrutural entre o direito e a economia, e a Constituição do Estado como a relação de acoplamento estrutural entre o direito e a política. As crises econômicas são então explicadas pelas tendências inflacionárias na produção de símbolos e pelos choques entre racionalidades sistêmicas parciais. A crise de 2008 consolida a constatação de que a globalização restringe a capacidade de influência da política e do direito sobre o sistema econômico desterritorializado. Em vista disso, propõe-se a adoção da teoria do constitucionalismo societal de Teubner como proposta para a democracia no século XXI; através dela, é possível reconhecer a constitucionalização no interior de cada subsistema social e o desenvolvimento de foros de razão pública internos, nos quais a política pode ser desenvolvida de forma autônoma em relação à política institucionalizada do Estado. Finalmente, vê-se como o combate à crise econômica invariavelmente redesenha os papéis dos Poderes de Estado, reconhecendo certa liberdade ao Executivo, embora isso não signifique ausência de quaisquer freios e contrapesos.The presentwork seeks elements in Niklas Luhmanns systems theory as developed by Gunther Teubner and Marcelo Neves, amongst others to explain the interrelations between the legal, economic and political social subsystems in current society. Based on the theoretical tools gathered, it analyzes the concept of economic constitution as the structural coupling between law and economics, and the State Constitution as a structural coupling between law and politics. Economic crisis is then explained by the inflationary tendencies in the production of symbols and by the conflicts between partial rationalities. The crisis of 2008 strengthened the conclusion that globalization restrains politics and laws capacities to influence the international economic system. In view of that, it is suggested the adoption of Teubners societal constitutionalism as a proposal for XXI centurys democracy. Societal constitutionalism allows the recognition of internal constitutions in each social subsystem and the development of internal public reasoning institutions, where politics can be developed autonomously from State Politics. Finally, the last chapter considers how the measures against economic crises invariably redefine the roles of the Executive, the Legislative and the Judiciary, recognizing some freedom to the Executive, although such freedom does not mean the absence of any checks and balances.
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Gubernat-Rammelt, Ruxandra. "L’existence du champ journalistique roumain après la crise économique de 2008." Thesis, Paris 10, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017PA100187/document.
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Cette étude se propose d'analyser les développements qui ont mené à l'état actuel du champ journalistique roumain, après la crise financière de 2008, par lesquels ce milieu professionnel ne parvient pas à convaincre ses acteurs de la viabilité de ses principes. Ma principale hypothèse est que la collision entre deux systèmes de valeurs divergents –l'intersection du modèle allogène, néolibéral, avec les valeurs et les nécessités locales –établit un champ hybride intégrant des éléments des deux cultures, sans incorporer la somme de leurs éléments. Ce champ hybride, caractérisé par un haut degré d'ouverture envers la renégociation, la réinterprétation et le rétablissement des principes qui guident le journalisme, engendre aussi une certaine dimension anomique au sein de ses acteurs. Afin d’établir l’existence du champ journalistique en Roumanie après 2008, une analyse à partir de trois dimensions principales était envisagée : une première dimension serait la rupture politique, qui a imposé une réflexion sur les directions et les choix des modèles dans le nouveau marché médiatique pluraliste ; une deuxième dimension identifiée est le profond changement technologique superposé sur cette étape de compréhension de l’agir journalistique ; troisièmement, la crise financière débutée en 2008, qui a déstabilisé mondialement le milieu journalistique et qui a engendré une remise en cause du journalisme. Nous avons pu remarquer : • Une contradiction idéologique au niveau macro, c'est à dire que les institutions adhèrent au modèle, mais ce n'est pas le principe directeur de leurs démarches, qui sont surtout guidées par les réalités en place ; • Et au niveau micro, une contradiction marquante entre la compréhension du modèle et la manière d’agir : décalage entre le niveau argumentatif – avec la compréhension que le modèle de l'Ouest qui est fortement attractif – et le mode d'agir, où les individus doivent se plier aux coutumes et aux valeurs locales, qui ne sont pas en concordance avec le système de référence auquel ils adhéreraientThis study aims to analyze the developments that led to the current state of the Romanianjournalistic field, after the financial crisis of 2008, by which this professional environment fails to convince its actors of the viability of its principles. My main hypothesis is that the collision between two divergent value systems - the intersection of the neoliberal allogeneic model with local values and necessities - establishes a hybrid field integrating elements of both cultures without incorporating the sum of their elements. This hybrid field, characterized by a high degree of openness towards renegotiation, reinterpretation and restoration of the principles that guide journalism, also creates a certain anomic dimension of its actors. In order to establish the existence of the journalistic field in Romania after 2008, an analysis based on three main dimensions was envisaged: a first dimension would be the political rupture which imposed a reflection on the directions and choices of models in the new pluralist media market;; a second dimension identified is the profound technological change superimposed on this stage of understanding journalistic acts;; third, the financial crisis which began in 2008, which destabilized the journalistic environment in Romania. Our main discovery is that of the existence of double standards in the practice and in the evaluation of Romanian journalism by its actors:• An ideological contradiction at the macro level, i.e. institutions adhere to the model, but this is not the guiding principle of their approaches, which are mainly guided by the realities in place ;• At the micro level, the contradiction between the understanding of the model and the waythis model is enacted: a discrepancy between the argumentative level - with theunderstanding that the Western model is highly attractive - and the mode of action whereindividuals must comply with local customs and values, which are not in accordance with thesystem of reference to which they adhere
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Ramos, André Paiva. "O Brasil diante da crise do subprime: uma abordagem pós-keynesiana do conjunto de medidas anticíclicas adotado pelo governo federal brasileiro e o desempenho da economia de 2007 a 2010." Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo, 2015. https://tede2.pucsp.br/handle/handle/9258.
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Previous issue date: 2015-08-28From the outbreak of the subprime crisis on, the international economy started to deteriorate. Due to the uncertainties about the evolvement of the crisis, a preference for liquidity emerged, leading the economic agentes to seek netter and safer assets. As a consequence, most of the main economies registered noticeable decrease in their activities and a higher unemployment rate. Within this situation, the Brazilian economy was also strongly affected. However, by taking a set of anticyclical measures, the federal Brazilian government´s action was decisive to promptly reverse the negative impacts and lead the Brazilian economy to growth and to a decrease in unemployment. Based on the post-keynesian approach, this study aims not only to analyse the set of anticyclical measures taken by the Brazilian government as a response to the subprime crisis but also to examine the economic performance from 2007 to 2010
A partir da eclosão da crise do subprime, o cenário internacional entrou em franca deterioração. Devido às incertezas acerca dos desdobramentos dessa crise, iniciou-se uma maior preferência pela liquidez, levando os agentes econômicos a uma corrida para adquirir ativos mais líquidos e seguros. Como consequência, grande parte das principais economias registrou uma forte retração no seu nível de atividades e elevação do desemprego. Nesse cenário, a economia brasileira também foi fortemente impactada. Entretanto, a atuação do governo federal brasileiro, através de um conjunto de medidas anticíclicas, foi decisiva para rapidamente reverter os impactos negativos e conduzir a economia brasileira para uma trajetória de crescimento com diminuição do desemprego. Desta forma, a partir de uma abordagem pós-keynesiana, este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar o conjunto de medidas anticíclicas adotado pelo governo federal brasileiro como resposta à crise do subprime e também examinar o desempenho econômico brasileiro de 2007 a 2010
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Farooqui, Shikeb Arslan. "The role of complementarities in networks." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/7407.
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This thesis is a collection of three principal chapters split into two parts. The first part presents chapter 1 on network design when effort decisions are global substitutes but communication through network links creates local complementarities and the network is subject to policing. Although it is motivated as a study of criminal networks, the model is general enough to encompass situations of collaborative R&D, employee poaching and peer effects. The second part presents chapters 2 and 3 on R&D collaboration. Chapter 2 empirically assesses the reasons that induce firms to collaborate in R&D projects and finds a strong reason in financial constraints. Chapter 3, firstly studies how firms within collaborative agreements protect their innovations. A comparison with non-collaborators unveils a systematic preference for strategic mechanisms such as secrecy. Chapter 3 then provides a theoretical rationale for this difference and offers additional predictions that are matched by the data.Aquesta tesi és una recopilació de tres capítols principals, separada en dues parts. La primera part presenta el capítol 1 relatiu al disseny en xarxa quan les decisions sota esforç són substitutius globals. Però, en aquest context, la comunicació a través de les connexions de la xarxa crea complementarietats locals i la xarxa està subjecte a vigilància. Encara que aquest capítol està motivat com un estudi sobre les xarxes criminals, el model és bastant general i abasta situacions de R&D col·laboratiu, fuga de talents i efectes paritaris. La segona part presenta els capítols 2 i 3 relatius a la col·laboració en matèria de R&D. El capítol 2 avalua empíricament les raons que indueixen a les empreses a col·laborar entre elles en projectes de R&D, destacant sobre les altres raons les restriccions financeres. El capítol 3 estudia, en primer lloc, de quina manera les empreses que operen sota acords de col·laboració protegeixen les seves innovacions. Una comparació amb empreses no col·laboradores desvetlla una preferència sistemàtica per mecanismes estratègics com el secretisme. Seguidament, el capítol 3 proporciona una base teòrica que explica aquesta diferència i ofereix prediccions addicionals que s'ajusten a les dades.
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Ferreira, Murilo Resende. "Essays on banking theory and history of financial arrangements." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/12421.
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This thesis contains two chapters, each one dealing with banking theory and the history of financiai arrangements. In Chapter 1, we extend a Diamond and Dybvig economy with imperfect monitoring of early withdrawals and make a welfare comparison between all possible allocations, as proposed by Prescott and Weinberg(2003) [37]. This imperfect monitoring is introduced by establishing indirect communication( trough a mean of payment) between the agents and the machine that is an aggregate of the financiai and the productive sector. The extension consists in studying allocations where a fraction of the agents can exploit imperfect monitoring and defraud the contracted arrangement by consuming more in the early period trough multiple means of payment. With limited punishment in the period of late consumption, this new allocation is called a separating allocation in contrast with pooling allocations where the agent with the ability of fraud is blocked from it by a costly mean of payment or by receiving enough future consumption to make fraud unattractive. The welfare comparison in the chosen range of parameters show that separating allocations are optimal for poor economies and pooling allocations for intermediary and rich ones. We end with a possible historical context for this kind of model, which connects with the historical narrative in chapter 2. In Chapter 2 we explore the quantitative properties of an early warning system for financiai crises based on the boom and bust framework described in more detail in appendix 1. The main variables are: real growth in equity and housing prices, the yield spread between the 10-year government bond and the 3-month interbank rate and the growth in total banking system assets. These variables display a higher degree of correct signals for recent crises (1984-2008) than comparable early warning systerns. Taking into account an increasing base-line risk ( due to increasing rates of credit expansion , lower interest rates and the accumulation of distortions) also proves to be informative and to help signaling crises in countries that did not go trough a great boom in previous years.
Esta tese contém dois capítulos, cada um lidando com a teoria e a história dos bancos e arranjos financeiros. No capítulo 1, busca-se extender uma economia Diamond-Dybvig com monitoramento imperfeito dos saques antecipados e realizar uma comparação do bem estar social em cada uma das alocações possíveis, como proposto em Presscott and Weinberg(2003). Esse monitoramento imperfeito é implementado a partir da comunicação indireta ( através de um meio de pagamento) entre os agentes e a máquina de depósitos e saques que é um agregado do setor produtivo e financeiro. A extensão consiste em estudar alocações onde uma fração dos agentes pode explorar o monitoramento imperfeito e fraudar a alocação contratada ao consumirem mais cedo além do limite, usando múltiplos meios de pagamento. Com a punição limitada no período de consumo tardio, essa nova alocação pode ser chamada de uma alocação separadora em contraste com as alocações agregadoras onde o agente com habilidade de fraudar é bloqueado por um meio de pagamento imune a fraude, mas custoso, ou por receber consumo futuro suficiente para tornar a fraude desinteressante. A comparação de bem estar na gama de parâmetros escolhida mostra que as alocações separadoras são ótimas para as economias com menor dotação e as agregadoras para as de nível intermediário e as ricas. O capítulo termina com um possível contexto histórico para o modelo, o qual se conecta com a narrativa histórica encontrada no capítulo 2. No capítulo 2 são exploradas as propriedade quantitativas de um sistema de previsão antecedente para crises financeiras, com as váriaveis sendo escolhidas a partir de um arcabouço de ``boom and bust'' descrito mais detalhadamente no apêndice 1. As principais variáveis são: o crescimento real nos preços de imóveis e ações, o diferencial entre os juros dos títulos governamentais de 10 anos e a taxa de 3 meses no mercado inter-bancário e o crescimento nos ativos totais do setor bancário. Essas variáveis produzem uma taxa mais elevada de sinais corretos para as crises bancárias recentes (1984-2008) do que os sistemas de indicadores antecedentes comparáveis. Levar em conta um risco de base crescente ( devido à tendência de acumulação de distorções no sistema de preços relativos em expansões anteriores) também provê informação e eleva o número de sinais corretos em países que não passaram por uma expansão creditícia e nos preços de ativos tão vigorosa.
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Semedo, Manuelisa de Jesus Fernandes. "Potenciando a autodeterminação através da remuneração não monetária em tempos de crise económica:um estudo em dois bancos de Portugal e Cabo Verde." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Ciências Sociais e Políticas, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/12799.
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Dissertação de Mestrado em Políticas de Desenvolvimento de Recursos HumanosNo contexto da crise económica em que vivemos atualmente, torna-se uma das maiores preocupações das organizações, apesar de todas as transformações e impactos dessa crise, motivar os seus colaboradores a serem, cada vez, mais produtivos. De entre todas as estratégias de motivação de colaboradores, as políticas de remuneração continuam sendo uma das mais utilizadas. O Trabalho aqui descrito apresenta um estudo de caso múltiplo, na área da Banca, num Banco Português e num Banco de Cabo Verde. Para o estudo utilizou-se os designs da Grounded Theory como instrumento de análise de dados e construção da teoria. A partir dessa análise foi possível a construção de dois modelos que permitem conhecer os impactos da crise económica iniciada em 2008 sobre os sistemas de recompensas, identificar formas de recompensas intrínsecas utilizadas e perceber como elas influenciaram a satisfação das necessidades psicológicas básicas humanas propostas pela teoria da autodeterminação. Essa análise é feita para cada um dos dois casos. Foi possível verificar que a crise económica influenciou apenas a componente variável da remuneração extrínseca bem como a remuneração intrínseca. As formas de remuneração intrínseca utilizadas nesse contexto foram: acompanhamento do cliente interno, agradecimento, valorização e preocupação com os impactos sociais e familiares de possíveis despedimentos. Foi possível também verificar que num dos casos estudados, algumas práticas de gestão são percecionadas como formas de remuneração intrínseca, como a rotatividades interna, proximidade entre a gestão e os colaboradores, trabalho em equipa, ao mesmo tempo que promovem a satisfação das necessidades psicológicas básicas.
In the context of the economic crisis we live in today, it is a major concern of organizations, despite all the changes and impacts of this crisis, to motivate their employees to be increasingly more productive. Of all the motivation strategies, compensation policies continue to be one of the most used. A multiple case study was conducted in the area of banking, in two banks: A Portuguese and Cape Verde Bank. The method of Grounded Theory was used for the purpose of data analysis. This analysis enabled the construction of two models that allow to know the impact of the economic crisis started in 2008 on the rewards systems, identify ways to use intrinsic rewards and realize how they influenced the satisfaction human of basic psychological needs. Proposals for the promotion of self-determination are pretended for each case It was possible to see, in these two cases that the economic crisis has influenced only the variable component of remuneration and intrinsic compensation. The forms of intrinsic compensation used in this context were monitoring the internal customer, appreciation, appreciation and concern of family and social impacts of possible redundancies. It was also possible to verify that in one of the cases studied, that some management practices are perceived as forms of intrinsic compensation as: internal rotations, proximity between management and employees, team work which at the same time promote the satisfaction of basic psychological needs.
N/A
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Silva, Rodrigo Luiz Medeiros da. "Modelos, contramodelos e seu contexto: as respostas sul-coreana a argentina à crise da dívida como evidência da complexa interação entre o processo político e as formças da economia internacional." Universidade de São Paulo, 2012. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/8/8132/tde-13092012-105919/.
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No fim dos anos 1970, dois choques externos o segundo salto nos preços do petróleo e o reajuste na taxa básica de juros norte-americana marcam o início de tendências econômicas divergentes entre o Leste da Ásia e a América Latina. Para os prósperos tigres, a próxima década seria uma janela para o chamado catching up, culminando com a promoção simbólica de seu prodígio, a Coréia do Sul, ao status de país desenvolvido quando da realização dos Jogos Olímpicos em Seul. Na América Latina, inversamente, os anos 1980 são geralmente apelidados de Década Perdida, inaugurando uma era de regressão econômica e instabilidade política. A Argentina, provavelmente a menos dinâmica dentre as economias que então se industrializavam, é geralmente evocada como um desastre que tipifica a sina regional. A vasta maioria das investigações acerca desta divergência se concentra nas políticas econômicas domésticas e em seus resultados objetivos. Não obstante, tais políticas foram formuladas e aplicadas sob uma combinação de circunstâncias internacionais e políticas que podem variar consideravelmente de país para país ao longo do tempo. O objetivo deste texto é examinar em que medida algumas das particularidades destes dois casos naquilo que concerne ao processo político interno e à evolução da economia internacional moldaram a reação de cada qual ao cenário adverso.At the end of the 1970s, a couple of external shocks namely, the second leap in petroleum prices and the readjust of American basic interest rate mark the beginning of divergent economic trends for East Asia and Latin America. For the prosperous tigers, the following decade would be a time for catching up, culminating with the symbolic promotion of its prodigy, South Korea, to the rank of a developed country by the time of Seouls Summer Olympics. In Latin America, inversely, the 1980s are generally nicknamed the Lost Decade, inaugurating an era of economic regression and political instability. Argentina, probably the worlds less dynamic industrializing economy at that time, is usually evoked as a disaster that typifies the regional fate. The vast majority of the investigations about this diversion concentrate on domestic economic policies and their objective results. Nonetheless, such policies were formulated and launched under a combination of international and political circumstances that can vary considerably from country to country and along the course of time. The aim of this text is to examine to what extent have some of these two cases particularities in what concerns to the domestic politic process and the evolution of international economy molded each national reaction to the adverse scenario.
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Pegorer, André Fernando. "A hipótese da fragilidade financeira de Minsky e a regulação financeira." Universidade Federal de São Carlos, 2012. https://repositorio.ufscar.br/handle/ufscar/2148.
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Previous issue date: 2012-12-16Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos
Given the complexity of financial instruments currently in use, the purpose of this study is to examine, according to the proposed economic theory of Hyman P. Minsky, the factors that led to the recent financial crisis, which began in the mortgage market and expanded throughout the financial system. The residential mortgage market, as well as the financial regulation and supervision frameworks, was examined based on the Financial Fragility Hypothesis and the theory of financial cycles, as proposed by Minsky. The framework that the financial structure created prior to the crisis would not have been possible without the use of credit derivatives. This research finds that the use of credit derivatives were the primary financial instrument that drove the expansion of the credit cycle and produced vast losses during the crisis. This new financial structure, burdened by a complex structured finance, amplified the positive outlook of economic units and that allow very high credit expansion rates for a long period. And its collapse required the ensuing government intervention in the economy. Such intervention, which occurred through fiscal and monetary policies and a direct rescue of failing institutions, was necessary in both preventing the full collapse of the entire financial system and in stabilizing it. This study additionally applies an econometric model of the Minskyan theory to test whether the use of credit derivatives contributed to expanding the fragility of the financial system during its expansion. Finally, the study analyzes the drivers of the strong growth rate of the credit derivatives markets in the context of financial regulation, as such markets are exposed to high risk and therefore have a significant potential to increase financial fragility.
Diante da complexidade dos instrumentos financeiros existentes, este trabalho busca esclarecer, segundo a teoria econômica proposta por Hyman P. Minsky, quais foram os fatores que levaram a crise financeira recente, que teve seu inicio no mercado imobiliário, a se expandir de forma intensa por todo o sistema financeiro internacional. Baseando-se na Hipotese da Fragilidade Financeira e na teoria econômica de ciclos financeiros, propostas por Minsky, foi analisada a estrutura de financiamento imobiliário nos Estados Unidos. As estruturas de regulação e supervisão financeira também foram analisadas aos olhos da teoria Minskyana. Alem disso, foi testada a hipótese de que a estrutura financeira criada neste período não seria possível sem a utilização peculiar dos derivativos de credito. Estes foram identificados como sendo o principal instrumento financeiro tanto no estimulo do ciclo de ascensão do credito quanto no colapso da nova estrutura financeira, que, permeada por produtos estruturados complexos, exacerbou as expectativas positivas dos agentes ao permitir que elevadas taxas de crescimento do credito fossem mantidas por um longo período de tempo. Com o colapso desta estrutura, fez-se necessária a intervenção do governo na economia. As intervenções, que ocorreram através de políticas fiscais, monetárias e de socorro as instituições em estado precário, foram necessárias para evitar o colapso do sistema financeiro e restabelecer a estabilidade do mesmo. Diante destes ocorridos e tento em vista a interação existente entre os diferentes agentes financeiros, foi criado um modelo testável empiricamente para a teoria Minskyana. Este modelo buscou responder se o amplo uso de derivativos de credito foi capaz de aumentar a fragilidade financeira de todo o sistema durante o período de expansão econômica. Por fim, a estrutura regulatória dos derivativos financeiros foi analisada de forma a ilustrar os motivos que levaram ao amplo crescimento do mercado de derivativos de credito, um mercado marcado por elevada exposição a riscos e, portanto, propenso a contribuir com a elevação da fragilidade financeira.
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Perrelli, Joaquim Tavares. "A supervisão bancária na América Latina e o acordo de Basiléia II." Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo, 2008. https://tede2.pucsp.br/handle/handle/9340.
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Previous issue date: 2008-05-16Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
The bank regulation is developed as the financial markets become more complex and sophisticated, consequently increasing its exposition to a greater risk level. Bank supervision is an institution that depends on bank regulation to act, monitoring and inspecting financial institutions, in order to accomplish it aim, financial stability. Basel II agreement incorporates two decades´ concepts, since its previous editions, improving and estabilishing principles for effective supervision and monitoring risk levels according its classification. Its implementation depends however from each evaluated country´s context. In the case study ahead, there are being analysed data and information from World Bank´s research on supervisory structure, budgetary and operational authonomy, among others. So, bank supervision belongs to a proccess and as an activity itself, its evaluation is difficult due to the dynamic nature of the capitalist system. The economies operate in cycles and when economic activity is high, credit operations levels increases too. Between these operations hired during the high level economic activity, there are the operations that will generate troubles when economic activity level becomes lower. So the supervision alternates position between a preventive and corrective set of actions. Its procedures will never be perfect and there will always be financial institutions in trouble so as there will always be financial crisis
A regulação bancária é desenvolvida à medida que os mercados financeiros tornam-se mais complexos e sofisticados em suas operações, e conseqüentemente, ficando mais expostos a riscos. A supervisão bancária é uma instituição que, a partir da regulação da atividade do sistema bancário, fiscaliza e inspeciona as atividades das instituições com o objetivo principal de promover a estabilidade financeira. O acordo de Basiléia II, incorpora os conceitos de mais de duas décadas de acordos anteriores, no estabelecimento de princípios para a supervisão bancaria efetiva e técnicas de monitoramento de riscos bancários. A sua implantação entretanto, depende de diversas etapas e preparação. As atividades de supervisão variam de contexto, conforme cada país analisado. No estudo de caso apresentado adiante estão sendo analisados dados e informações coletados em pesquisas do Banco Mundial e outras entidades acerca da estrutura da supervisão bancária, autonomia operacional e orçamentária além de outras. A partir desses dados e dos textos coletados nas fases da pesquisa, pode se concluir que a supervisão faz parte de um processo, e torna-se de difícil mensuração a partir da própria dinâmica do capitalismo. As economias operam em ciclos, e nos ciclos de alta na atividade econômica ocorre a alta nas operações de crédito. Entre essas operações de crédito do ciclo de alta encontram-se as operações que poderão causar problemas ao sistema no ciclo de baixa. A supervisão portanto alterna entre uma postura preventiva e corretiva. Ela nunca será perfeita em seus procedimentos, sempre ocorrerão problemas com instituições financeiras e crises de mercado
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Pitcher, Ashley Brooke. "Mathematical modelling and optimal control of constrained systems." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2009. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:044a26ab-99dc-4b34-b4a3-04e5c0d61ba0.
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This thesis is concerned with mathematical modelling and optimal control of constrained systems. Each of the systems under consideration is a system that can be controlled by one of the variables, and this control is subject to constraints. First, we consider middle-distance running where a runner's horizontal propulsive force is the control which is constrained to be within a given range. Middle-distance running is typically a strategy-intensive race as slipstreaming effects come into play since speeds are still relatively fast and runners can leave their starting lane. We formulate a two-runner coupled model and determine optimal strategies using optimal control theory. Second, we consider two applications of control systems with delay related to R&D expenditure. The first of these applications relates to the defence industry. The second relates to the pharmaceutical industry. Both applications are characterised by a long delay between initial investment in R&D and seeing the benefits of R&D realised. We formulate models tailored to each application and use optimal control theory to determine the optimal proportion of available funds to invest in R&D over a given time horizon. Third, we consider a mathematical model of urban burglary based on the Short model. We make some modifications to this model including the addition of deterrence due to police officer presence. Police officer density is the control variable, which is constrained due to a finite number of police officers. We look at different control strategies for the police and their effect on burglary hot-spot formation.
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Löhr, Stefan Franz. "Betrügerisches Verhalten bei geschlossenen Fonds: Eine Analyse aus ökonomischer und rechtlicher Perspektive." Universitätsverlag Chemnitz, 2018. https://monarch.qucosa.de/id/qucosa%3A21414.
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Betrügerisches Verhalten bei geschlossenen Fonds ist in Deutschland Statistiken zufolge für jährliche Kapitalverluste im mittleren dreistelligen Millionenbereich verantwortlich. Der Gesetzgeber hat sich in der Vergangenheit wiederholt dem Problem angenommen und eine Vielzahl von zivil-, straf- und öffentlich-rechtlichen Maßnahmen zur Verbesserung des Anlegerschutzes auf den Weg gebracht, die mit dem Inkrafttreten des Kapitalanlagegesetzbuchs (KAGB) im Jahr 2013 ihren bisherigen Höhepunkt erreicht haben. Die Zweckdienlichkeit dieser Maßnahmen wird von Kritikern indes bezweifelt, darüber hinaus scheint sich in jüngerer Zeit ein neuartiges Phänomen des „sanktionslosen Betrugs“ auf dem Kapitalmarkt zu etablieren, bei dem es den Tätern gelingt entweder ohne, oder ohne nennenswerte Sanktionen – insbesondere in strafrechtlicher Hinsicht – davonzukommen. Als Beispiele seien hier die Debi Select Fonds aus Landshut sowie die POC-Fonds aus Berlin genannt, bei denen die im Hintergrund agierenden „Strippenzieher“ trotz millionenschwerer Anlegerschädigung weder in zivil- noch in strafrechtlicher Hinsicht zur Rechenschaft gezogen werden konnten. Die vorliegende Arbeit widmet sich der systematischen Erkundung dieses Phänomens, indem sie die Themenkomplexe „(sanktionslose) betrügerische geschlossene Fonds“ und „Anlegerschutz“ aus ökonomischer und rechtlicher Perspektive theoretisch analysiert und hieraus Verbesserungsvorschläge ableitet, die anschließend durch eine explorativ-empirische Expertenbefragung abgesichert und ergänzt werden. Konkret beantwortet die Arbeit folgende zentrale Forschungsfrage: „Was ist betrügerisches Verhalten bei geschlossenen Fonds und warum ist dies zum Teil sanktionslos?“ sowie vier ergänzende Forschungsfragen: (1) „Wie sieht die Anatomie betrügerischer geschlossener Fonds aus?“ (2) „Was sind die Ursachen und Anreizstrukturen, die betrügerisches Verhalten bei geschlossenen Fonds begünstigen?“ (3) „Welche Maßnahmen eignen sich zur Abwehr bzw. zur Eindämmung des betrügerischen Verhaltens bei geschlossenen Fonds?“ (4) „Bieten die zivil-, straf- und öffentlich-rechtlichen Maßnahmen des Gesetzgebers, insbesondere das KAGB einen ausreichenden Schutz vor betrügerischen geschlossenen Fonds?“Fraudulent behavior in closed-end funds is, according to statistics, responsible for annual capital losses in the mid-triple-digit millions. Legislators have repeatedly addressed the problem in the past and initiated a large number of civil, criminal and public-law measures to improve investor protection, which reached their peak in 2013 with the entry into force of the so-called “Kapitalanlagegesetzbuch” (KAGB). The usefulness of these measures are doubted by critics, moreover it appears that a new phenomenon of 'unsanctioned fraud' on the capital market appears to be established recently, where the perpetrators succeed either without or without significant sanctions, especially in criminal matters. Examples include the Debi Select funds from Landshut and the POC funds from Berlin, in which the 'stripping pullers' operating in the background could be held accountable neither in civil nor in criminal law despite millions in damage to investors. The present work is devoted to the systematic investigation of this phenomenon by theoretically analyzing the topics '(non-sanctioned) fraudulent closed-end funds' and 'investor protection' from an economic and legal perspective and deriving recommendations for improvement, which are then confirmed and supplemented by an explorative-empirical expert survey become. Specifically, the paper answers the following central research question: 'What is fraudulent behavior in closed-end funds and why is this partially sanctionless?' And four complementary research questions: (1) 'What is the anatomy of fraudulent closed-end funds?' (2) 'What are the causes and incentive structures that favor fraudulent behavior in closed-end funds? (3)'What measures are appropriate for the prevention or the containment of fraudulent behavior in closed-end funds?' (4) 'Do civil, criminal and public legislative measures, in particular the KAGB, provide sufficient protection against fraudulent closed-end funds?'
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Zeugner, Stefan. "Macroeconometrics with high-dimensional data." Doctoral thesis, Universite Libre de Bruxelles, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2013/ULB-DIPOT:oai:dipot.ulb.ac.be:2013/209640.
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CHAPTER 1:The default g-priors predominant in Bayesian Model Averaging tend to over-concentrate posterior mass on a tiny set of models - a feature we denote as 'supermodel effect'. To address it, we propose a 'hyper-g' prior specification, whose data-dependent shrinkage adapts posterior model distributions to data quality. We demonstrate the asymptotic consistency of the hyper-g prior, and its interpretation as a goodness-of-fit indicator. Moreover, we highlight the similarities between hyper-g and 'Empirical Bayes' priors, and introduce closed-form expressions essential to computationally feasibility. The robustness of the hyper-g prior is demonstrated via simulation analysis, and by comparing four vintages of economic growth data.
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Ciccone and Jarocinski (2010) show that inference in Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) can be highly sensitive to small data perturbations. In particular they demonstrate that the importance attributed to potential growth determinants varies tremendously over different revisions of international income data. They conclude that 'agnostic' priors appear too sensitive for this strand of growth empirics. In response, we show that the found instability owes much to a specific BMA set-up: First, comparing the same countries over data revisions improves robustness. Second, much of the remaining variation can be reduced by applying an evenly 'agnostic', but flexible prior.
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This chapter explores the link between the leverage of the US financial sector, of households and of non-financial businesses, and real activity. We document that leverage is negatively correlated with the future growth of real activity, and positively linked to the conditional volatility of future real activity and of equity returns.
The joint information in sectoral leverage series is more relevant for predicting future real activity than the information contained in any individual leverage series. Using in-sample regressions and out-of sample forecasts, we show that the predictive power of leverage is roughly comparable to that of macro and financial predictors commonly used by forecasters.
Leverage information would not have allowed to predict the 'Great Recession' of 2008-2009 any better than conventional macro/financial predictors.
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Model averaging has proven popular for inference with many potential predictors in small samples. However, it is frequently criticized for a lack of robustness with respect to prediction and inference. This chapter explores the reasons for such robustness problems and proposes to address them by transforming the subset of potential 'control' predictors into principal components in suitable datasets. A simulation analysis shows that this approach yields robustness advantages vs. both standard model averaging and principal component-augmented regression. Moreover, we devise a prior framework that extends model averaging to uncertainty over the set of principal components and show that it offers considerable improvements with respect to the robustness of estimates and inference about the importance of covariates. Finally, we empirically benchmark our approach with popular model averaging and PC-based techniques in evaluating financial indicators as alternatives to established macroeconomic predictors of real economic activity.
Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished
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Buranapraphanont, Verasit. "Les aspects juridiques de la gestion de la dette publique en Thaïlande." Thesis, Aix-Marseille, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015AIXM1015/document.
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Les fonctions administratives du gouvernement consistent à fournir les services publics, et à opérer la gestion publique et administrative. Cela nécessite l’utilisation en continu d’importantes sommes d’argent. Or, le principal revenu provenant de la collecte des impôts ne suffit pas pour opérer les missions et les nécessaires activités de l’Etat. C’est la raison pour laquelle, celui-ci doit emprunter davantage aux institutions financières intérieures et extérieures. En Thaïlande, le premier emprunt fut créé à l’ère du Roi Rama V. Et après la Révolution siamoise de 1932, le pays commença à emprunter de plus en plus aux institutions financières internationales et aux gouvernements étrangers pour son développement. Ce sont les crises économiques mondiales qui ont obligé divers pays dans le monde à contracter la dette publique et qui ont fait accroître ladite dette en Thaïlande. La notion de gestion de la dette publique devient alors indispensable et, à cet égard, plusieurs pays ont rendu des lois spéciales. En Thaïlande, la Loi portant sur la gestion de la dette publique B.E. 2548 (2005) et la désignation d’un mandataire constitue la loi fondamentale autorisant le gouvernement à contracter la dette publique, et à la gérer diversement -en raison d’un changement de situation- comme la dette contractée pour le développement économique et social, pour la restructuration de la dette et la mise en œuvre de la politique sur les transactions financières en vue de réduire le risque de dette publique, etcThe government, as the administration, is responsible for public services, public affairs and administrative missions. It is, therefore, necessary to spend a great number of money consecutively. The main income of the government earned by the tax collection is not enough for its missions and the other necessary things. That’s why it had to loan more and more money from the domestic and international financial institutions. In Thailand, money has been loaned since the reign of King Rama V. After the Siamese Revolution of 1932, Thailand has incurred more public debt from the international financial institutions and foreign governments for country’s development. Public debt of Thailand and different countries has enormously increased while the notion of public debt management has also developed and the special acts on public debt management have been issued in many countries, because of the necessity of incurring public debt of several countries as well as economic crisis happened around the world. In Thailand, the Public Debt Management Act B.E. 2548 (2005) is considered as the principal law authorizing the government to incur and manage public debt in various ways for adapting to changing circumstances such as public debt incurred for social and economic development, for debt restructuring and financial transaction used for reducing the risk on public debt, etc
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Martínez, Alfonso Laneydi. "Cambios en la transmisión de shocks desde Estados Unidos hacia América Latina y el Caribe a raíz de la crisis : vulnerabilidades y desafíos." Thesis, Sorbonne Paris Cité, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015USPCA089/document.
Full textAbstract:
Traditionnellement, les mouvements cycliques de l’économie Etats-Unienne ont été déterminants dans la croissance globale, et particulièrement dans l´Amérique Latine et la Caraïbe, étant donné le rôle indiscutable joué par ce pays en tant que moteur de l’économie internationale depuis la fin de la Seconde guerre mondiale. Le début du XXIe siècle et spécialement la récente crise économique (2007-2009) à donné lieu à un intense débat international autour du découplage («decoupling» en anglais). Les épisodes relativement courts de désynchronisation économique dans certains zones géographiques durant la crise a été sans précédent, et a ouvert une fenêtre pour l'étude de l'impact (présent et/ou en devenir) des changements géoéconomiques et géopolitiques récents sur la scène internationale. Cette thèse cherche évaluer les changements dans la transmission de chocs des Etats Unis vers l’Amérique Latine et la Caraïbe, à la lumière de la récente crise économique internationale. Les Etats-Unis maintiennent une double dimension ou une dualité dans son importance économique pour l'Amérique Latine et les Caraïbes: d'abord, en tant que principal acteur de l'hémisphère et le principal partenaire commercial, et d'autre part, pour leur rôle dans l'architecture monétaire et financière internationale. La préservation de son hégémonie économique sur la région repose principalement sur ce dernier pilier, sur lequel la région a peu de capacité d'influence. Cela confirme encore la centralité économique des États-Unis dans la région, en dépit des changements majeurs dans les dynamiques économiques bilatérales, basées sur l´influence, de plus en plus hétérogènes, des chocs originaires de ce paysHistorically, United States has been considered the undisputed engine of the world economy; therefore, the cyclical movements of its economy have been crucial to global growth, particularly to Latin America and the Caribbean. Since the beginning of XXI century, particularly following the recent economic crisis (2007-2009), a number of major changes has emerged, in the global geopolitical and geo-economic context; marked by new dynamics of "North-South” and "South –South” interrelations. These changes in conjunction with the emergence of the international debate on the theory of “decoupling", has opened a window to study the influence of the context of the recent global crisis on the economic synchronization and the transmission of shocks from United States to Latin America and the Caribbean. This research assesses the changes in the transmission of economic shocks from US to the region, in the context of the recent international crisis. Major changes are verified in the relative importance of the trade channel that links United States to Latin America and the Caribbean due to a substantial increase in the commercial ties of the region with China; at the same time, the reinforcement of the monetary and financial channel in the transmission of shocks. The role of the United States in the current international monetary and financial architecture continues to be the essential foundation that preserves its economic centrality to Latin America and the Caribbean, in an increasingly heterogeneous region in its responses to shocks originated in the US economy
Históricamente, Estados Unidos ha sido considerado el motor indiscutible de la economía mundial, así,los movimientos cíclicos de su economía han sido determinantes en el crecimiento global y, en particular, en América Latina y el Caribe. Desde inicios del siglo XXI y, en particular, a raíz de la recientecrisis económica (2007-2009), han emergido un conjunto de cambios trascendentales en el contexto geopolítico y geoeconómico mundial; a raíz de nuevas dinámicas de interrelación “Norte-Sur” y “Sur-Sur”. Dichos cambios, unidos a la emergencia del debate internacional sobre la teoría del “desacoplamiento”, han abierto una ventana al estudio de la influencia del contexto de la reciente crisis económica internacional sobre la sincronización económica y la transmisión de shocks desde Estados Unidos hacia América Latina y el Caribe. La presente investigación evalúa cambios en la transmisión de shocks desde Estados Unidos hacia la región en el contexto de la reciente crisis económica internacional.Se verifican modificaciones en la relevancia relativa del canal comercial en la transmisión desde Estados Unidos hacia América Latina y el Caribe debido al incremento sustancial de los vínculos comerciales con China; al mismo tiempo y un reforzamiento del canal monetario-financiero en la transmisión de shocks. El rol de Estados Unidos en la actual arquitectura monetario-financiera internacional se erige en el pilar fundamental que continúa privilegiando su centralidad económica en una región cada vez más heterogénea en su respuesta shocks originados en este país
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Cameron, Samuel. "Killing for Money and the Economic Theory of Crime." 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10454/9853.
Full textAbstract:
NoThere is a large literature on the economics of crime and punishment, yet surprisingly little attention is paid to the receipt of money for crime. “Contract killing” is surprisingly neglected not only by economists but also by social scientists in general. In this paper, I look at the case not of professional gangster “hitmen” but of individuals who have found themselves in a position where they wish to have a killing carried out. This discussion does not condone the practice any more than an economic analysis of suicide is an inducement to individuals to kill themselves. To the lay reader, the cases where an individual feels the need to pay for killing may seem to be such that rationality is not a likely form of behaviour. However, the economics of crime has adopted the use of the rationality postulate as a heuristic for all types of crime.
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(6623969), Andrew D. Compton. "Essays on Macroeconomics and Labor Economics." Thesis, 2019.
Find full textAbstract:
This dissertation consists of three independent chapters at the intersection of macroeconomics and labor economics. The first chapter studies the job-search trade-offs between full-time employment, part-time employment, and multiple job holdings. The second chapter explores the macroeconomic relationship between property crime and output in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. The third chapter studies the causal effect of property crime on output.
The first chapter develops a search-matching model of the labor market with part-time employment and multiple job holdings. The model is calibrated to data from the CPS between 2001 and 2004. Workers are able to choose their search intensity and are allowed to hold two jobs while firms can choose what type of worker to recruit. When compared to the canonical Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model, this model performs quite well while capturing some empirical regularities. First, the model generates recruiting and vacancy posting rates that move in opposite directions. Second, part-time employment is up to 10 times more responsive than full-time employment. Third, the model suggests that multiple job holding rates are more flexible than observed in the data with the rate changing by as much as 4 percentage points compared to 0.1 percentage points in the data. Finally, the full model is able to capture compositional changes during recessions with the full-time rate declining and the part-time rate increasing. It also produces an empirically consistent increase in the unemployment rate as well as a decrease in output. The DMP model is more muted than in the data for both.
The second chapter explores how property crime can affect static and dynamic general equilibrium behavior of households and firms. I calibrate a model with a representative firm and heterogeneous households where households have the choice to commit property crime. In contrast to previous literature, I treat crime as a transfer rather than home production. This creates a feedback loop wherein negative productivity shocks increase property crime which further depresses legitimate work and capital accumulation. These responses by households are particularly important when thinking about the effect of property crime on the economy. Household and firm losses account for 24% of compensating variation (CV) and 37% of lost production. This suggests that behavioral responses are quite important when calculating the cost of property crime. Finally, on the margin, decreasing property crime by 1% increases social welfare by 0.19%, but the effect is diminishing suggesting that reducing crime entirely may not be optimal from a policymakers perspective.
The third chapter estimates the causal effect of property crime on real personal income per capita. Running system GMM on an unbalanced panel of MSA-year pairs suggests that property crime reduces real personal income per capita by a highly statistically significant 13.3%. This implies that the average person loses $4,869 (2009 dollars) per year with real annual personal income per capita totaling $36,615. The effect is driven primarily by larceny-theft and burglary with highly statistically significant coefficients of -0.179 and -0.110 respectively. Estimates for the effect of robbery are unstable, and the effect of motor vehicle theft is statistically significant, but smaller with a coefficient of -0.060.
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Šilar, Milan. "Ekonomie kriminality: Racionální pachatel a morální náklady zločinu." Master's thesis, 2011. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-313650.
Full textAbstract:
Main weakness of economics of crime is that it focuses on rational offender who is isolated from society. This thesis gives overview of game theory models, which take into account possible reactions of other actors to offender`s actions. I show that some variables of crime are dependent on individual`s social environment and I analyze them using moral costs of crime, where some gains and losses from crime are interconnected between people. Two own models are presented. First model deals with aggregated crime with significant role of moral costs of crime. Second model is a modification of Inspection game which includes moral costs of crime and is than modeled using evolutionary game theory. Result of first model is higher volatility of crime than in standard models of rational offender. Crime is maximally volatile in time in the second model. There is a critical level of moral costs of crime and after reaching this level, assumptions of inspection game are violated and society converges to state with zero crime. It is demonstrated on both models that crime is a self- propagating phenomenon, because of social interactions.
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Mwamba, Leon Tshimpaka. "An evaluation of the anti-corruption initiatives in Botswana and their relationship to Botswana's development." Diss., 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10500/14218.
Full textAbstract:
The study focuses on an evaluation of the anti-corruption initiatives in Botswana and their relation to Botswana’s development. An evaluation was needed to find out whether the anti-corruption initiatives were effective and whether there were a correlation between the effectiveness of the Directorate on Corruption and Economic Crimes (DCEC) and the level of development in Botswana.
This study showed that, the DCEC has succeeded to low corruption in Botswana through its most successful public education mandate and debatable good governance. The DCEC has helped to enhance service delivery in the public sector through the establishment of the Anti-Corruption Units (ACUs) within the Ministries aimed at tackling corruption in-house. Consequently, a significant slight improvement was registered in both public health and education sectors. However, that improvement was still minimal to the extent that it has been hampered by the challenging working conditions of the DCEC attributable to the inadequacy of legislation, lack of manpower, shortage of required skills and slow criminal justice system as well as the debatable independence of the DCEC, evidenced by its reporting and appointing lines. This implies that the impact of the DCEC in the development of Botswana has been minimal, as the country is still devastated by socio-economic disparities especially in rural areas.Development Studies
M.A. (Development Studies)
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Xipu, Lawrence. "An exploratory study of the informal hiring sites for day labourers in Tshwane." Diss., 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10500/3216.
Full textAbstract:
The purpose of the study was to locate the informal hiring sites for day
labourers in Tshwane, to determine the approximate number of day labourers, to
describe the nature of socio-economic activities taking place at the sites, and to
make recommendations to address needs that have been identified. The research
approach and methodology was exploratory, descriptive, quantitative and
qualitative. In terms of the findings, 80 informal hiring sites were identified in
Tshwane with approximately 3032 day labourers standing at the sites. Case
studies were done on three sites and it was found that they were hazardous and
lacked basic facilities such as shelter and toilets. Employer-employee
interactions were also found to be haphazard and sometimes manipulative and
exploitative. It is recommended that intervention programmes should be
implemented which could include the provision of basic facilities, skills
development, job search assistance and access to comprehensive social services.Health Studies
M.A. (Social Science - Mental Health)
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Lemos, Jéssica Andreia Rocha. "The impact of financial crisis on portuguese firms' capital structure." Master's thesis, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10071/15763.
Full textAbstract:
This study aims to verify the impacts of financial crises in the capital structure for Portuguese
companies. The purpose is to study different firm-specific determinants of a sample of general PSI
Portuguese listed firms at the Euronext Lisbon stock exchange, during the recent crises that endured
from 2011 until 2013 and test the impacts on short and long-term debt.
In order to test the changes/impacts on Portuguese firms’ capital structure, the most important
theories around capital structure decisions, Modigliani & Miller, Trade-off, Pecking Order and the
Agency theory, will be presented.
Among the many determinants that are considered to influence capital structure decisions, size,
profitability, tangibility, growth, liquidity and non-debt tax shield, were chosen to test their impacts on
Portuguese company. The sample used considers the period from 2005 to 2015 for 33 Portuguese
listed firms. A regression analysis will be used to infer about the effects on long-term and short-term
debt when the determinants change.
Results obtained support both trade-off and pecking order theories. Short-term debt ratios
reported a tendency of increase during the financial crisis while long-term debt registered a decrease.Este estudo visa verificar quais os impactos das crises financeiras na estrutura de capital das empresas portuguesas. Tem como objetivo estudar determinantes específicas da estrutura de capital das empresas portuguesas do PSI geral cotadas em bolsa, durante o período da recente crise financeira, que durou desde 2011 até 2013. Por forma a testar as mudanças/impactos na estrutura de capital das empresas portuguesas, algumas das principais teorias à volta do tema da decisão da estrutura de capital, tais como, "Modigliani & Miller", "Trade-off", "Pecking Order" e "Agency Theory", vão ser apresentadas. De entre as muitas variáveis que são consideradas como afetadoras da estrutura de capital de uma empresa, tamanho, lucrabilidade, tangibilidade dos ativos, crescimento, liquidez e o escudo fiscal da não dívida, foram selecionados para testar os seus impactos nas empresas portuguesas. A amostra de tempo considerada reuniu informação do período de 2005 até 2015 para 33 das empresas portuguesas cotadas em bolsa. Foi utilizada a regressão linear para testar os impactos que as alterações nas determinantes consideradas como variáveis dependentes têm nas dívidas de curto e longo prazos. Os resultados obtidos suportam tanto a teoria de "Trade-off" e "Pecking Order". Os rácios para a dívida de curto prazo aumentaram durante o período da crise financeira enquanto o rácio da dívida de longo prazo diminuiu.