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Kamal, Lillian T. "Predicting inflation, and the relationship between financial integration, financial development and economic growth." Morgantown, W. Va. : [West Virginia University Libraries], 2006. https://eidr.wvu.edu/etd/documentdata.eTD?documentid=4618.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--West Virginia University, 2006.Title from document title page. Document formatted into pages; contains v, 95 p. : ill. (some col.). Includes abstract. Includes bibliographical references.
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Tang, Ao. "The short-term impact of monetary policy on economic growth and inflation." View electronic thesis (PDF), 2009. http://dl.uncw.edu/etd/2009-3/rp/tanga/aotang.pdf.
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Baltar, Carolina Troncoso. "Economic growth and inflation in an open developing economy : the case of Brazil." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2013. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.607854.
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Bae, SangKun. "Essays on financial system, inflation, and growth /." free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 1998. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p9924862.
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Seleteng, Monaheng. "Inflation and economic growth nexus in the Southern African Development Community : a panel data investigation." Thesis, University of Pretoria, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/24274.
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The aim of the thesis is to examine the relationship between inflation and economic growth using the Southern African Development Community (SADC) as a case study. The motivation emanates not only because of the lack of studies analysing this relationship in the SADC region, but also due to the fact that this relationship may differ from the one that exists in developed countries due to the level of economic development and prudent macroeconomic policies being practised in the latter (Sarel, 1996). The relationship may differ because the vast majority of developed countries have established independent central banks with a clear mandate to keep inflation levels within a specific range (adopted an inflation targeting framework). However, in most developing countries, central banks do not have a clear inflation targeting monetary policy framework, for instance, in the SADC region, only South Africa has adopted an inflation targeting monetary policy framework. High inflation episodes are known to contribute to macroeconomic instability, therefore policy makers find it important to understand the kind of the relationship that exists between inflation and economic growth in order to develop and implement sound macroeconomic policies. Therefore, inflation is viewed to be one of the basic indicators of macroeconomic stability; hence it is an indicator of the ability of the government to manage the economy. High levels of inflation may be indicative of a lack of sound governance by the monetary authority of a country. In addition, it is a sign of government that has lost control of its finances (Fischer,1993). The thesis addresses issues of nonlinearities in the inflation-growth nexus by endogenously estimating the threshold level of inflation below which inflation may have no, or positive, impact on economic growth, or above which inflation may be detrimental to economic growth. It also assesses the effects of a shock to inflation in South Africa, being the largest economy in the region, on inflation and economic growth of the rest of the region. First, different panel data methodologies; Fixed Effects (FE), Difference Generalised Method of Moments (DIF-GMM), System Generalised Method of Moments (SYSGMM), and Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) estimators are used in order to examine the relationship between inflation and economic growth in the region. Second, Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) methodology is utilised to examine the nonlinearities in the inflation-growth nexus. In particular, the threshold level of inflation is endogenously estimated and the smoothness of the transition from a low to a high inflation regime in the region is also estimated1. Thirdly, the effects of South African inflation on the inflation and economic growth in the rest of the region are assessed using impulse-response functions derived from estimating a Panel Vector Autoregression (PVAR) model. Overall, the study deals with problems which are normally encountered when using cross-country data such as endogeneity, heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. The main findings of the study are that inflation and economic growth in the region are negatively related, as is also the case in other regions of the world as depicted by the empirical literature (Fischer, 1993 and De Gregorio, 1993). Therefore, in terms of the inflation-growth link, the SADC region is not different from all the other regions around the globe. Secondly, the threshold level of inflation in the region is estimated at 18.9 per cent, which is in line with the findings of authors like Drukker et al. (2005), Mignon and Villavicencio (2011), and Ibarra and Trupkin (2011), who found a threshold level of 19.2 per cent, 19.6 per cent, and 19.1 per cent for developing countries. However, this threshold level marginally exceeds that of Khan and Senhadji (2001), Schiavo and Vaona (2007), Moshiri and Sepehri (2009) and Espinoza et al. (2010), which studies report threshold values between 10 and 12 per cent for developing countries. The empirical results also reveal that shocks to South African inflation have significant economic impact on inflation, openness, investment and economic growth in the rest of the SADC region. In particular, more interestingly, South African inflation is found to have a negative and statistically significant impact on economic growth in the region for up to about 12 years after the shock, after which, it becomes insignificant. The contribution of the thesis to the literature is that, firstly, this looks into the inflation-growth relationship in the context of Africa, in particular the SADC region; as such an investigation or research has not been conducted before. Secondly, the research takes advantage of panel data methodologies so as to provide more robust estimates and confront the potential bias emanating from problems such as endogeneity, heterogeneity and cross-country dependence that may have affected previous empirical work on inflation-growth nexus. This is believed to provide more informative estimates on the inflation-growth link, and therefore deepens our knowledge of the region.Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2012.
Economics
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Park, Yeong-Chun. "The level and variability of inflation, output growth and money : cross-section empirical analysis /." free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 1996. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p9821335.
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Morar, Derwina. "Inflation threshold and nonlinearity: implications for inflation targeting in South Africa." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1002718.
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Following many other central banks around the world, the South African Reserve Bank has adopted inflation targeting as its monetary policy framework. The aim of this is to achieve low levels of inflation in order to attain price stability thereby promoting growth. In South Africa, the chosen band to target is 3%–6%. This has been criticised by many trade unions who are calling for the abandonment of inflation targeting. Despite targeting 3%–6%, it is not known whether this is the optimal inflation range for South Africa. Therefore, the aim of this study is to determine the inflation threshold level for South Africa using quarterly data for the period 1983 to 2010. The first section determines whether or not there is a long-run relationship between inflation and growth using the Johansen cointegration method. Exogeneity tests determine the causality between these variables. Vector error correction models are estimated if cointegration is found. The second part determines the threshold level of inflation using the method of conditional least squares. The inflation level that maximises the R-squared value and minimises the residual sum of squares gives an indication of the threshold level. The third part of the study determines whether or not inflation volatility has a significant impact on growth. The first part established that there is long-run comovement between inflation and growth.The causality is bidirectional with both variables being endogenous.Findings regarding the threshold level show that the current inflation targeting band of 3%–6% may be extended up to 9.5%. In addition, the range of inflation from 5.5% to 6.5% promotes economic growth in South Africa. Finally, the evidence suggests that inflation volatility does not have a significant impact on economic growth and the focus of policy should be directed towards the level of inflation as has been the case.
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Bax, Ryan Michael Jonathan. "A regulationist approach to South Africa and a critique of inflation targeting." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/d1004533.
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Since the 1970s, the international economic system has become prone to the volatility and undue effects associated with booms and busts. This forty year period spanning the present has exhibited restrained growth and repressive economic development. Critical changes to the system are presented by the transition from "Fordism" to the post 1970s neoliberal regime and the globalization of world markets. Underpinning this transformation is an ideological shift towards free market capitalism and the adoption of "reduced form" market models. These "reduced form" models appear to hinder economic sustainability as their grounding in economics fails to account for real economic activity. This thesis aims to provide a more holistic perception of sustainability, one that provides a sound basis on which to develop sustainable economic policy. The Regulationist Approach presents the requisite understanding of economic sustainability required within this research. The inclusion of economic, historical and socio-political fields of research proposes a wider understanding of the political economy and sustainability. The application of the Regulation Approach to the South African economy illustrates many problem areas that require attention. The examination found that firstly, aggregate demand in the South African economy was unsustainable due to the debt driven nature of demand under the asset price bubble of the mid to late 2000s. Secondly, aggregate supply also proved unsustainable as government is failing to provide any substantive growth within important sectors of the economy such as education and the provision of general services. Furthermore, the adoption of inflation targeting in South Africa poses a barrier to sustained economic growth as it focuses singularly on price inflation. The "reduced form" model of inflation targeting fails to account for market failures and a number of vital indicators of sustainability most notably, debt levels and asset prices. The inclusion of these indicators, and financial stability more generally, are found to provide a more holistic and sustainable approach to macroeconomic policymaking.
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Moleka, Elvis Musango. "Inflation dynamics and its effects on monetary policy rules." Thesis, University of Bath, 2015. https://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.687344.
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This thesis examines dynamic relationships between inflation and monetary policy in a sample of African economies using quarterly data over the period 1980:01 to 2012:04. The literature on inflation dynamics and monetary policy focuses on developed economies, with little attention devoted to the African economies, which is potentially explained by the fact that in the past monetary policy played second fiddle because of fiscal policy dominance following episodes of high inflation and stabilization policies that occurred in the 1980's. This thesis fills an important gap in assessing African's monetary policy. The thesis predominantly uses the Vector-Autoregression (VAR) framework to examine the monetary policy frameworks of the African economies. The thesis finds that an interest rate shock on average explain a more significant proportion of the variance in the output gap and inflation than the exchange rate, in terms of analysing the decomposition of shocks to the economy. This shows a shift in the monetary policy focus away from exchange rate management to interest rate targeting as the African economies have become more market oriented. The monetary policy reveal strong asymmetric responses with respect to the macroeconomic variables when inflation exceeds its threshold value. The analysis suggests that monetary policy in the African economies is regime-dependent, propagated through the inflation thresholds, such that the authorities strongly implement policy changes when inflation goes beyond a certain threshold. The thesis reveals that by taking into account the prior belief of the monetary authorities, it helps produce better estimates of the performance of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, as it combines prior information with the sampling information which is contained in the data. The overall novelty of the thesis is that some African economies are adopting inflation targeting policies instead of exchange rate management. It is imperative that the subsequent inflation targeting frameworks will achieve monetary policy objectives for the African economies and the use of interest rate management should be continued.
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Moon, Hongsung. "Alternative monetary policy rules in an open economy : effects on inflation, output, the interest rate and the exchange rate /." free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 1997. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p9841323.
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Griebeler, Marcelo de Carvalho. "Ensaios em política e desenvolvimento econômico." reponame:Biblioteca Digital de Teses e Dissertações da UFRGS, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10183/87327.
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Esta tese é composta por três ensaios. No primeiro, mostramos em nosso modelo básico que economias formadas exclusivamente por produtores e parasitas podem cair em armadilhas de pobreza, desde que ambos grupos se comportem de acordo com a dinâmica de Lotka-Volterra. Contudo, a introdução de um limite para o crescimento do produto e de expectativas por parte dos agentes exclui o resultado de armadilha em seus múltiplos equilíbrios. Nossa conclusão, entretanto, é similar para ambos modelos estudados: melhora na proteção aos direitos de propriedade por parte do Estado pode fazer com que a armadilha de pobreza seja superada, no modelo básico; e afetar a estabilidade dos equilíbrios, no modificado, fazendo com que resultados econômicos com maior produto tornem-se estáveis. No segundo ensaio, obtemos condições sob as quais a função perda do banco central é estritamente convexa em quatro estados distintos da economia: economia aquecida, em recessão, inação alta e produto alto. Encontramos, ainda, que quando in- ação e produto são funções lineares do instrumento de política monetária, a convexidade é garantida para qualquer um dos quatro estados citados. Ao estendermos nossa análise a vários instrumentos, encontramos que apenas linearidade já não é mais suficiente para a garantia do formato da função perda. Nossos resultados fornecem, ainda, condições sob as quais existirá dependência entre os instrumentos de política monetária. Por fim, o terceiro ensaio estuda regimes de metas de inação, nos quais agentes podem influenciar a política monetária através das expectativas de mercado reportadas ao banco central. Este, por sua vez, deve formular a política monetária considerando que tal influência pode ser usada em benefício dos próprios agentes. Modelamos essa relação estratégica como um jogo sequencial entre uma instituição financeira representativa e o banco central. Mostramos que quando a autoridade monetária escolhe apenas o nível da taxa de juros, existe um potencial viés inflacionário na economia. Esse viés é superado quando a oferta de moeda torna-se um segundo instrumento de política. Ainda mostramos que penalização de instituições más previsoras também pode ser um mecanismo eficiente de ancoragem de expectativas.This thesis consists of three essays. In the first one, we show in our basic model that economies consisted exclusively by producers and parasites may fall into poverty traps, assuming that both groups behave according to the dynamics of Lotka-Volterra. However, the introduction of an upper bound on the output growth and expectations for the agents excludes the result of trap in its multiple equilibria. Our conclusion, nevertheless, is similiar for both studied models: improved protection of property rights by the state can mitigate the poverty trap possibility in the basic model, and affect the stability of equilibria in the modified one, making that economic outcomes with higher output become stable. In the second essay, we obtain conditions under which the central bank's loss function is strictly convex in four different states of the economy: booming economy, recession, high inflation and high output. Moreover, we found that when inaction and output are linear functions of monetary policy instruments, convexity is guaranteed for any of the four states mentioned. When we extend our analysis to the case of many instruments, we found that only linearity is not sufficient to guarantee the shape of loss function. Our results also provide conditions under which there exists dependence between instruments of monetary policy. Finally, the third essay studies the ination targeting regimes, in which agents can influence the monetary policy through market expectations reported to the central bank. Monetary authority, in its turn, should formulate the monetary policy considering that this influence may be used for the benefit of agents themselves. We model this strategic relationship as a sequential game between a representative financial institution and the central bank. We show that when the monetary authority chooses only the level of interest rates, there is a potential inflationary bias in the economy. This bias is solved when the money supply becomes a second instrument of policy. In addition, we show that to impose penalty on the worse predictor institutions may also be an efficient anchoring expectations mechanism.
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Sabbadini, Ricardo. "Dois ensaios empíricos em macroeconomia e desigualdade de renda." Universidade de São Paulo, 2010. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/12/12138/tde-16042010-124317/.
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Essa dissertação é composta por dois ensaios empíricos que relacionam variáveis macroeconômicas e desigualdade de renda. No primeiro ensaio, o objetivo é avaliar o impacto de uma mudança da taxa inflação na distribuição de renda, medida pelo índice de Gini. Para isso, usa-se um painel com aproximadamente 80 países e dados anuais entre 1987 e 2006. Então, estimam-se modelos estáticos e dinâmicos em que a desigualdade de renda é explicada pela inflação, sempre controlando a existência de efeitos fixos para países e anos. Quando modelos não-lineares são usados, para diminuir a influência dos outliers, encontra-se uma robusta relação positiva entre as variáveis, indicando que inflação tem um impacto positivo no índice de Gini. A magnitude do efeito estimado, porém, é inferior ao obtido por estudos anteriores. Os resultados apontam que um aumento no IPC de zero para 10 pontos percentuais ao ano aumentaria o índice de Gini, que está numa escala de zero a 100, em, no máximo, 0,05 pontos percentuais. Essa discrepância em relação à literatura parece decorrer do uso de estimadores de efeitos fixos, pois os trabalhos anteriores baseavam-se em dados em cross section. No segundo ensaio, sugere-se que o impacto de uma democratização sobre o crescimento econômico depende negativamente da desigualdade de renda do país em questão. Isto significa que uma democratização pode estimular o crescimento em países mais equânimes, mas este efeito é menor em sociedades mais desiguais. A fim de avaliar este argumento empiricamente, usa-se um painel de 76 países com dados qüinqüenais entre 1977 e 2006. Com estes dados, também se estimam modelos estáticos e dinâmicos que sempre controlam a existência de efeitos fixos para países e tempo. Nesses modelos o crescimento do PIB per capita é explicado por uma variável que mede a qualidade das instituições democráticas do país e por sua interação com o índice de Gini, de modo que o efeito marginal da democracia dependa do Gini. Em todos os modelos estimados os coeficientes sempre apresentaram os sinais esperados. O resultado mais robusto é que para países com elevada desigualdade de renda (do quartil superior da nossa amostra, com índide de Gini acima de 45 pontos) a democratização tem um impacto negativo sobre o crescimento econômico.This dissertation consists of two empirical essays relating macroeconomic variables and income inequality. The aim of the first essay is to evaluate how a change in the inflation rate affects the income distribution. In order to do this, a panel of yearly data for about 80 countries between 1987 and 2006 is used. Then static and dynamic models in which income inequality is explained by inflation are estimated, always controlling for country and year fixed effects. A robust positive relation between the variables is found when non linear models are used to reduce the influence of outliers. This is evidence that inflation has a positive effect in the Gini index. The size of the estimated effect, however, is inferior to those obtained by previous studies. Results point that a an increase in the CPI from zero to 10 yearly percentage points would increase the Gini index in at most 0,05 percentage points, on a scale that lies in between zero and 100. Such a difference seems to derive from the use of fixed effects estimators, while previous work was based in cross section data. The second essay suggests that the impact of democratization in economic growth depends negatively on the countrys income inequality. This means that democratization might encourage growth in more equal countries, but this effect diminishes in more unequal societies. In order to empirically assess this argument, I use a panel with 76 countries and five-year averages between 1977 and 2006 and estimate static and dynamic models that also control for country and time fixed effects. In these models, per capita GDP is explained by a variable that measures quality of democratic institutions and its interaction with the Gini index, so that democracys marginal effect depends on the latter. Coefficients have the expected signs in all estimated models. The most robust result is that for highly unequal countries (those that belong to the highest quartile in the sample, with Gini index above 45 percentage points) democratization has a negative impact on economic growth.
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Košková, Dominika. "The Notion of Money Illusion and Its Development in Economics." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2014. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-192439.
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This thesis maps development of money illusion through the history of economic thought and analyzes relevance of the concept in these days. The story begins in 1928 with Irving Fisher, who saw money illusion as a failure to perceive changes in purchasing power of money. Different notion was developed by John Maynard Keynes when he proposed a non-homogeneous labor supply. In the 1970s, the success of rational expectations theory led to a dismissal of the original theories of money illusion and Tobin's critique revealed also an inconsistency of the Keynesian notion. Since then, money illusion lost its position in the mainstream economic science. The modern theories were, however, able to align money illusion with rational expectations and provided the phenomenon with a psychological framework. Money illusion became described as a tendency to think in nominal rather than real terms. While the concept was revived as a part of behavioral and New Keynesian economics, the question of its aggregate effects remains as the Keynes' inconsistency have not been resolved until these days.
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Sattarov, Khayroollo. "Inflation and Economic Growth. Analyzing the Threshold Level of Inflation. : Case Study of Finland, 1980-2010." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Handelshögskolan vid Umeå universitet (USBE), 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-51599.
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Al-Wattar, Obey M. "On price inflation." Thesis, University of Southampton, 1986. https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/192475/.
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This thesis seeks to analyse price inflation under oligopoly capitalism. Its central argument is that under oligopoly capitalism, price inflation is a structural phenomenon. For a greater understanding of that phenomenon, the adoption of the inter-industrial approach for its analysis seems essential. According to this approach, price inflation can be initiated in a single industry or in an industry group. The initiating factor may be an increase in the mark-up, an increase in the money wage rate or an increase in the foreign currency price of an imported input. It can also be initiated by devaluation. The input-output matrix, the core of the economic system, is the key to the transmission of inflationary impulses (in the form of higher unit cost) from one industry to another. Real wage resistance, rigid mark-up resistance, and rigid foreign resistance do no more than perpetuate or worsen the inflationary experience. The inflationary process itself has a dual role to play. It acts as a mechanism for shifting income distribution in favour of one section of the society against another and as a mechanism for changing the price structure. The author argues that the abandonment of the macroeconomic approach to the analysis of price inflation and its replacement by the inter-industrial approach is the first step for serious analysis of that structural phenomenon.
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Schäfer, Andreas. "Economic Development and Economic Integration." Doctoral thesis, Universitätsbibliothek Leipzig, 2013. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:15-qucosa-128100.
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Macroeconomists dedicated substantial efforts to clarify the puzzle of growing incomes in some regions of the world and rising differences in standards of living across the globe. Although the question of why economies perform differently is as old as the theory of economic thought itself, it is only since recent times that economists integrate development patterns over the very long-run into formal dynamic general equilibrium models. The models we present here consider
development patterns observed in advanced economies since the Industrial Revolution. The objective of this study is to shed light on the mechanics of economic development within the frame of (dynamic) general equilibrium models. Since this requires the solution of multi-dimensional and non-linear systems of difference or differential equations that govern the evolution of the model economy over time (in some cases with heterogeneous agents) analytical solutions are in general not obtainable. Therefore, this work relies on numerical and computational methods at large, in order to visualize the development path of economies over time.
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Mamo, Fikirte. "Economic growth and Inflation : A panel data analysis." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Institutionen för samhällsvetenskaper, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-17463.
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One of the most important objectives for any countries is to sustain high economic growth. Even though there are main factors that affect economic growth, the concern of this paper is only about inflation. The relationship between economic growth and inflation is debatable. The first objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between inflation and economic growth. This study uses panel data which includes 13 SSA countries from 1969 to 2009. To analyze the data the model is formed by taking economic growth as dependent variable and four variables (i.e. inflation, investment, population and initial GDP) as independent variables. The result indicates that there is a negative relationship between economic growth and inflation. This study is also examined the causality relationship between economic growth and inflation by using panel Granger causality test. Panel granger causality test shows that inflation can be used in order to predict growth for all countries in the sample, while the opposite it is only true for Congo, Dep. Rep and Zimbabwe.
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Campolmi, Alessia. "Essays on open economic, inflation and labour markets." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/7367.
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En los últimos años se ha desarollado mucho la literatura que utiliza modelos estocásticos de equilibrio económico general en economía abierta. En esta clase de modelos el primer capítulo estudia si el banco central tiene que fijarse en al inflación medida mirando al los precios al consumo (CPI) o a los precios a la producción. Se demonstra como la introducción de competencia monopolística en el mercado del trabajo y rigidez de los salarios nominales justifica el utilizo de la inflación medida sobre CPI. En el segundo capítulo el enfoque es sobre las diferentes volatilidades de la inflación entre paísos de la unión monetaria y como esto se puede relacionar con diferentes estructuras del mercado del trabajo. En el último capítulo se utiliza un modelo a dos paísos para estudiar las consecuencias de una subida del precio del petróleo sobre la inflación, los salarios reales y el producto interno bruto.In these last years there has been an increasing literature developing DSGE Open Economy Models with market imperfections and nominal rigidities. It is the so called "New Open Economy Macroeconomics". Within this class of models the first chapter analyses the issue of whether the monetary authority should target Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation or domestic inflation. It is shown that the introduction of monopolistic competition in the labour market and nominal wage rigidities rationalise CPI inflation targeting. In the second chapter we introduce matching and searching frictions in the labour market and relate different labour market structures across European countries with differences in the volatility of inflation across the same countries. In the last chapter we use a two-country model with oil in the production function and price and wage rigidities to relate movements in wage and price inflation, real wages and GDP growth rate to oil price changes.
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Aworinde, Olalekan B. "Budget deficits and economic performance." Thesis, University of Bath, 2013. https://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.629656.
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This thesis examines the effects of budget deficits on the current account imbalance and inflation in African countries. The aims of this thesis are; first, to use higher frequency data. Most studies in African countries use annual data; by contrast we use quarterly data. Second, to examine the dynamic interaction between fiscal deficits and current account imbalances using VAR models. Third, to explore the long-run relationship between the twin deficits, using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) of Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001). Fourth, to assess the long-run relationship between the twin deficits using the threshold autoregressive models of Hansen and Seo (2002). Fifth, to model inflation as being non-linearly related to fiscal deficits using the asymmetric cointegration approach of Enders and Siklos (2001). The second chapter discusses the theoretical framework and review of the empirical literature on twin deficits and fiscal deficits and inflation. We find much evidence in support of the twin deficits hypothesis that increase in government deficits leads to increase in the current account deficits. There is little empirical study on the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis. From the twin deficits literature, we observe that where the twin deficits hypothesis holds there is a high degree of openness and also countries operates a flexible exchange rate. The empirical literature on fiscal deficits and inflation suggests that fiscal deficits are inflationary in high inflation economies and developing countries, but not in low inflation and developed countries. The third chapter examines the time series properties of the series using the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, the Phillip-Perron test and the Lee and Strazicich (2003) two-break unit root test. Results for the unit root test reveals that majority of the series are significant in their first differences. By contrast applying the LM two structural break test shows that the majority of the series are significant around two structural breaks. The fourth chapter analyses the twin deficits hypothesis using a VAR model. Results show that a positive government deficit shock increases the current account deficit in Botswana, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Morocco, South Africa and Tanzania while the current account improves in response to a positive government deficit shock in Cameroon and Uganda. Also in response to a positive government deficit shock, the current account remains constant in Kenya, Nigeria and Tunisia. The fifth chapter examine the long run relationship between the twin deficits hypothesis accounting for structural breaks using the Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) model. Results show that the fiscal deficit in the twelve African countries has long run impact on the current account deficit. The sixth chapter examines the relationship between fiscal deficit and current account deficit using the bi-variate threshold cointegration model of Hansen and Seo (2002) for nine countries where the fiscal deficits and current account deficits were significant at first differences. We find evidence of a positive cointegrating relationship between the current account and the fiscal balances for Botswana, Cameroon, Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria and Tanzania; and a negative cointegrating relationship in Ethiopia, Kenya and Uganda. The seventh chapter examines the long-run relationship between fiscal deficits and inflation in eleven African countries using the TAR and M-TAR models of Enders and Siklos (2001). Results show that fiscal deficits and inflation are asymmetry in Botswana, Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Morocco and Tanzania. This thesis centres on the twin deficits and fiscal deficits and inflation in African countries. Conclusions from the empirical chapters indicate that large fiscal deficits is the cause of current account deficits, and that fiscal deficits are inflationary. This study further suggests that African countries should spend their resources on projects that will accelerate the level of growth and development.
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Naito, Katsuyuki. "Politico-economic Approaches on Economic Development." Kyoto University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/157500.
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Ishikawa, Sumio. "Empirical studies on the non-linear economic models /." Diss., Connect to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC campuses, 1997. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p9804525.
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VASCONCELOS, GABRIEL FILIPE RODRIGUES. "FORECASTING IN HIGH-DIMENSION: INFLATION AND OTHER ECONOMIC VARIABLES." PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO, 2018. http://www.maxwell.vrac.puc-rio.br/Busca_etds.php?strSecao=resultado&nrSeq=35237@1.
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PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIROCOORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIOR
CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICO
PROGRAMA DE EXCELENCIA ACADEMICA
Esta tese é composta de quatro artigos e um pacote de R. Todos os artigos têm como foco previsão de variáveis econômicas em alta dimensão. O primeiro artigo mostra que modelos LASSO são muito precisos para prever a inflação brasileira em horizontes curtos de previsão. O segundo artigo utiliza vários métodos de Machine Learning para prever um grupo de variáveis macroeconomicas americanas. Os resultados mostram que uma adaptação no LASSO melhora as previsões com um alto custo computacional. O terceiro artigo também trata da previsão da inflação brasileira, mas em tempo real. Os principais resultados mostram que uma combinação de modelos de Machine Learning é mais precisa do que a previsão do especialista (FOCUS). Finalmente, o último artigo trata da previsão da inflação americana utilizando um grande conjunto de modelos. O modelo vencedor é o Random Forest, que levanta a questão da não-linearidade na inflação americana. Os resultados mostram que tanto a não-linearidade quanto a seleção de variáveis são importantes para os bons resultados do Random Forest.
This thesis is made of four articles and an R package. The articles are all focused on forecasting economic variables on high-dimension. The first article shows that LASSO models are very accurate to forecast the Brazilian inflation in small horizons. The second article uses several Machine Learning models to forecast a set o US macroeconomic variables. The results show that a small adaptation in the LASSO improves the forecasts but with high computational costs. The third article is also on forecasting the Brazilian inflation, but in real-time. The main results show that a combination of Machine Learning models is more accurate than the FOCUS specialist forecasts. Finally, the last article is about forecasting the US inflation using a very large set of models. The winning model is the Random Forest, which opens the discussion of nonlinearity in the US inflation. The results show that both nonlinearity and variable selection are important features for the Random Forest performance.
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Li, Xue. "The cyclical behavior of prices and inflation." Thesis, University of Missouri - Columbia, 2016. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10178996.
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This paper documents business cycle facts of prices and the inflation rate for the United States from 1959:Q1 to 2013:Q3. Prices are countercyclical and the inflation rate is procyclical. In addition, prices lead the overall cycle by two quarters and the inflation rate lags the overall cycle by three quarters. To account for the observed cyclical behavior, two models are applied and extended including a business cycle model with endogenous money supply (Freeman and Huffman 1991) and a DSGE model with sticky prices (Ireland 2003). The former model only generates countercyclical prices but not procyclical inflation or the phase shift of prices relative to the overall cycle. For the latter model, its sticky-price version captures all the observed cyclical facts; whereas its flexible-price version fails to capture the procyclical behavior of inflation and the phase shift of prices relative to output. Better performance of the sticky-price model indicates that nominal rigidity can account for the cyclical behavior of prices and inflation. Thus, a powerful empirical business cycle model should incorporate a reasonable degree of price stickiness.
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Fatima, Kaneez. "Globalization, inflation and monetary policy." Thesis, University of Glasgow, 2013. http://theses.gla.ac.uk/4713/.
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The thesis is aimed at investigating the implications of globalization for the conduct of monetary policy. By globalization we mean increased interdependence of national economies as reflected in greater and freer flow of goods, services, capital, and labour across national borders. In particular, our research addresses a number of important issues in the recent monetary policy and globalization debate. First, are global factors becoming important drivers of domestic inflation? Second, are global factors playing more powerful role on inflation dynamics in the sectors of an economy that are more open to trade? Third, has globalization made the job of Central Bankers more difficult? And finally, do the Central Bankers in the United States and the United Kingdom consider international factors too along with domestic factors while determining the short term interest rates? Inflation rates have been observed to be low across industrial countries since the early 1990s. The co-movements of inflation rates across countries are strikingly high. We model the co-movements of inflation rates by a global factor, regional factors and idiosyncratic component. In particular, we estimate a Dynamic Factor Model with Stochastic Volatility and find that the contribution of the global factor has increased over time in explaining the variance of inflation in OECD countries. The regional factor also gains importance in countries with strong intra-regional economic linkages potentially due to proliferation of regional trade agreements and common currency areas. In the European countries, the role of global and regional factor together dominates the country specific factor since the late 1990s. The volatility of inflation has substantially decreased over time and our modelling framework incorporates time varying volatility of inflation. We find strong positive and significant relationship between the international common factor and economic globalization. Consistent with inflation becoming a global phenomenon, co-movements of aggregate inflation between countries are observed to be high. We examine whether this is also the case for sectoral inflation, we model the co-movements in sectoral inflation as being associated with a global factor, a sector specific factor and an idiosyncratic error term. We find that the co-movements of inflation of tradable sectors are substantially greater than the co-movements in non-tradable sectors which implies that the greater co-movements of inflation can be attributed to increased trade global integration of product markets. To test this, we attempt to find empirical relationship between the estimated common factor in sectors and openness to trade measured as import penetration. A positive relationship is found between the estimated sector specific common factors and import penetration. Given our earlier chapters identify important global dimension to aggregate and sectoral inflation, does this matter for monetary policy? The implication of globalization for monetary policy in the United States and the United Kingdom are examined by estimating monetary policy reaction function for these advanced economies over the sample period 1985-2010. We also consider time variations in these reaction function by estimating over a sub-sample of 1992-2010 for the United Kingdom and the Greenspan-Bernanke Era for the United States. We estimate the policy reaction function with domestic and global inflation and output gaps and with the component of domestic inflation and output gap that is not related to global variations. The policy reaction function augmented with foreign variables such as real effective exchange rate and foreign interest rate is also estimated. We use measures of inflation based on GDP deflator, CPI and inflation expectations. We find that the Federal Reserve responds to global inflation only in the full sample and to global as well as the country specific inflation in the second sub-sample (Greenspan-Bernanke Era). This may imply strong commitment of the Federal Reserve to the goal of ``price stability'' during Greenspan-Bernanke Era. The Bank of England responds to global inflation along with the country specific inflation. The international factors such as the real effective exchange rate changes (depreciation) and foreign interest rates have significant and positive effect on policy rates.
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Jonason, Gustav, and Pontus Jismark. "The nonlinear relationship between inflation and economic growth : A dissection of the threshold level between inflation and economic growth in Sweden between 1971-2017." Thesis, Linnéuniversitetet, Institutionen för nationalekonomi och statistik (NS), 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:lnu:diva-85569.
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A common belief about inflation and economic growth has developed during recent years. This belief is that a “low” and stable inflation rate favors economic growth. The underlying arguments for this are that a low inflation rate create a beneficial playground for all participants. A playground which will meliorate investments and ensure a stability for consumers which in return will give a favorable environment for the economy to thrive. This paper aims to clarify this relationship between inflation and economic growth in Sweden between the period 1971-2017 and thus investigate the co-integration relation between the two variables. Additional test will be conducted to explore a potential threshold level of inflation. This threshold level is defined as the point where inflation starts to harm growth.
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Zhang, Xuanyang. "Essays on trend inflation, nominal rigidity, and optimal monetary policy." Thesis, Cardiff University, 2018. http://orca.cf.ac.uk/120162/.
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YU, YAN. "The relationship between inflation and economic growth in OECD countries." Thesis, KTH, Samhällsekonomi, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-77468.
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In modern world, economic growth is the main object of many countries. And the rate of inflation is another central subject for the macro economic policy in many countries and it is an important criteria to measure whether the macro economy in a country works steadily and healthy. So the relationship between these two indexes---economic growth rate and the inflation rate is always debated. There are three possible relations between the two variables: positive, negative and no effect. And many theories and empirical results are carried out to test the relationship. This paper analyses the relationship between inflation and gross domestic product (GDP) in OECD countries while at the same time considering the influence of variables such as: investment rate, trade balance, fertility rate, direct foreign investment and tax. The main object is to asses the effect of inflation on economic growth. The second aim is to check the effect of tax rate on the economic growth rate. Tax is also important for the economy. Econometrics techniques for panel data are used for the analysis.
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Natalegawa, A. D. H. "Economic management and the stages of Indonesian inflation : 1950-1983." Thesis, University of Oxford, 1988. http://catalog.hathitrust.org/api/volumes/oclc/32940258.html.
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Chew, Yen Shern. "Do exchange rate regimes affect countries' economic growth and inflation?" Oberlin College Honors Theses / OhioLINK, 2002. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=oberlin1354820480.
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Jeke, Leward. "Inflation targeting and inflation indicators: the case for inflation targeting in South Africa." Thesis, University of Fort Hare, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10353/d1007091.
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The control of inflation requires a forecast of the future path of the price level and its indicators. Targeting inflation directly requires that the central bank (SARB) form forecasts of the likely path of prices paying close attention to a variety of indicators that shows the predictive power of inflation in the past periods. Inflation indicators might be cointegrated with the rate of inflation to predict the future inflation rates. Forecasting inflation may be very difficult at a particular period due to the fact that the array candidate indicators of inflation may neither be very stable nor very strong in their relationships with the rate of inflation. Although this might be the case, this research uses testable effects of each of the South African inflation indicators to the rate of inflation using econometrics tools to find that they have a long run trend with the rate of inflation in South Africa. It has been found that each of the indicator variables has a long run relationship with the rate of inflation. The major conclusion is that inflation indicator variables like money supply (M3), oil price, gold price, total employment, interest rates, exchange rates and output growth can be useful inflation indicators in targeting the future trends of inflation in South Africa according to the data used in this research although some studies in some countries find that inflation targeting is an insufficient framework for monetary policy in the presence of financial exuberance. The money supply, the oil prices, interest rates, the exchange rates, prices of gold, the employment and output growth are co-integrated with the rate of inflation representing a long-run relationship.
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Aziz, Md Nusrate. "Exchange rates, international trade and inflation : a developing economy perspective." Thesis, University of Birmingham, 2011. http://etheses.bham.ac.uk//id/eprint/1745/.
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The thesis focuses on empirical modelling and estimation of the role of exchange rate in international trade adjustment, trade prices and domestic inflation in the context of developing countries. Although the study‘s prime focus is to estimate empirically, using Bangladesh as the main case study, the theoretical assumptions about the effectiveness of exchange rates polices towards trade prices, domestic inflation and trade performance, we also examine the asymmetric behaviour of ‗large exchange rate shocks‘ in trade flows of other South Asian countries such as India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Estimated results demonstrate that the exchange rate has a significant positive impact on trade balance in the short- and long-run. However, the J-curve phenomenon can be explained as an appropriate response of trade balance to exchange rate shocks. Along with relative prices and domestic real income, the export demand is also found to be the significant determinant of import demand function. We find ‗complete‘ exchange rate pass-through to import price in both the short- and long-run. However, the ‗second stage pass-through‘ to consumer prices is found to be only ‗partial‘ in both the short- and long-run. Trade liberalization is a significant phenomenon for Bangladesh‘s trade and inflation. Hysteresis in international trade is found to be a ‗commodity and country specific‘ phenomenon. Sunk costs are not found to be significant for hysteresis.
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Faria, Joao Ricardo. "Analytical papers on money, inflation and growth." Thesis, University of Kent, 1998. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.245722.
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Teleb, M. A.-A. "An econometric analysis of inflation in Egypt." Thesis, University of Salford, 1985. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.356191.
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Bhaskar, Sandeep. "Asset Prices, Banking and Economic Activity." Diss., Temple University Libraries, 2016. http://cdm16002.contentdm.oclc.org/cdm/ref/collection/p245801coll10/id/406182.
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EconomicsPh.D.
This dissertation examines the role of asset prices to act as a transmission and amplification mechanism. Specifically, it looks at how changes in asset prices can help transmit and amplify technology shocks through the credit channel by changing the supply of loanable funds, or changing the supply of deposits, or both. Using a modified version of the Kiyotaki-Moore credit cycles model with concave utility and decreasing returns to scale production function, the dissertation illustrates that asset prices can as a credible amplification and transmission mechanism. Using concave utility and decreasing returns to scale production function allows the incorporation risk aversion into the credit cycles model. The model can help explain the gap between observed magnitude of shocks, and the corresponding changes in economic activity. The behavior of a heterogeneous agent economy in response to a technology shock is simulated using computer programs. The simulations show that a one percent technology shock translates into a more than four percent change in capital held by the constrained agents by moving capital from one agent type to the other. This moves the economy away from a first-best equilibrium. If the technology shock is positive there is an increased demand of capital from the more productive agents, and thus a more than proportionate increase in output. If the technology shock is negative, the opposite path is followed, and economic activity falls more than proportionately. There are credit constraints built into the model. Agents' access to credit is determined by the value of collateral on oer, which in turn depends on asset prices. Technology shocks change demand for assets, their prices, their value as collateral, and hence agents' access to credit. Further, since prices are forward looking, a shock in one period propagates through time. These simulations show that the effects of the shock can be felt up to 13 periods after it has hit. An event analysis with housing price data from 18 countries spanning a period of more than four decades is also performed. It shows that there is strong co-movement of housing prices and economic activity. In particular, larger changes in housing prices have been accompanied by qualitatively similar changes in economic activity. The period leading up to the peak of a real estate cycle is accompanied by a more than proportionate increase in private sector lending, and once the peak has been crested, there is a more than proportionate fall in nominal private sector lending. This evidence is in sync with the earlier observation that changes in asset prices influence agents' access to credit and contribute to the persistence of the effects of the shock far into the future. Further, the preferred measure of economic health, the rate of inflation, sees no measurable change in periods leading up to a real estate peak, and beyond. This throws up the need for some other measure of economic health that is better able to capture the events in asset markets. Policy makers have been paying more attention to this channel in the aftermath of the sub-prime mortgage crisis in the United States. There have been multiples changes in regulatory policy across the world, and specific steps are being taken to dampen exuberance in the real estate market. Only time can tell if these measures turn out to be effective, but at least a step has been taken towards realizing that housing market can lead to a wider economic and banking crisis.
Temple University--Theses
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Keary, Cynthia (Cynthia Christina) Carleton University Dissertation Canadian Studies. "Community economic development; theoretical development." Ottawa, 1995.
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Fitchett, Christian. "Asset price inflation- theory, history, and an alternative model." Oberlin College Honors Theses / OhioLINK, 2000. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=oberlin1354820913.
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Irvin-Ross, Kerri L. "Community economic development in the inner city, Lord Selkirk Economic Development Project." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1998. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk2/tape15/PQDD_0013/MQ32140.pdf.
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Zipete, Zwelixolile. "Mhlontlo Municipality local economic development strategy as a driver of economic development." Thesis, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10948/13316.
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The main aim of the research study was to review the Mhlontlo Municipality Local Economic Development Strategy as a driver of economic development. The Mhlontlo LED Strategy was developed in 2007 to guide economic development of Mhlontlo Local Municipality. The Constitution of the Republic of South Africa(Act 108 of 1996), the White Paper on Local Government (1998), Section B, the National Framework for LED in South Africa (2006), and other pieces of legislation gave direction in the development of LED Strategies in South# Africa, including the Mhlontlo LED Strategy.
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García, Juan Angel. "Essays in credibility and the source of inflation persistence." Thesis, University of Warwick, 2000. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/4378/.
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In the first chapter we investigate the strategy of exchange rate pegging as a solution to the lack of credibility of domestic monetary policy in the context of the European Monetary System (EMS). Existing theoretical models cannot explain the following features of the EMS and its crisis in 1992: its progressive hardening from 1987 onwards; the fact that credibility was 'shared'; the progressive deterioration of credibility after the first Danish referendum without changes in the economic fundamentals. We argue that the reason lies in the fact that the literature has not incorporated the changes in the perceived prospects of EMU. We show that an adjustable peg regime that incorporates those prospects can explain the three features listed above and provide an alternative interpretation of the EMS crisis. We then focus our attention on the short-run dynamics of U.S. inflation. U.S. price inflation exhibits substantial inertia. The source of that inflation inertia is however controversial. In the second part of the thesis, we derive a wage contracting specification that implies inflation persistence to investigate the role of nominal rigidities to explain that degree of inertia. The contracting specification is derived from intertemporal optimisation under two basic assumptions: (i) wage staggering; (11) relative wage concern by wage-setters. The novelty is the analysis of relative wage concern. In chapter 2 we review the existing evidence and theoretical support pointing at relative wage concern as a fundamental factor in the wage contracting process. In chapters 3 and 4, we build a dynamic general equilibrium macromodel to study its implications. In chapter 3 we investigate two potential sources of inflation inertia: the contracting specification described above, and the lack of rationality of expectations. We then carry out a test for the source of inflation inertia. Our empirical results suggest that alternative sources of inertia beyond that imparted by the lack of full rationality of expectations are needed to characterise U.S. inflation dynamics. In chapter 4 we focus our investigation on the persistence of the real effects of money shocks. In contrast to previous models of staggered wages/prices, output and inflation persistence are robust findings of the model. Moreover, persistence results hold for all the sensible parameterisations. Given the empirical evidence in favour of the existence of a strong relative wage concern, we conclude that relative concern may be the missing piece in the money shocks persistence puzzle raised by recent literature.
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Berardi, Andrea. "Term structure of interest rates, non-neutral inflation and economic growth." Thesis, London Business School (University of London), 1997. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.266078.
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Rossi, Sergio. "Price indices, monetary analysis and inflation : a macro-economic theoretical explanation." Thesis, University College London (University of London), 2000. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.368025.
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Nwosu, Chioma P. "Inflation and economic growth relationship in the West African Monetary Zone." Thesis, University of Bradford, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/10454/17315.
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Inflation and output growth relationship is of interest to policymakers and researchers. In the West African Monetary Zone, the attainment of low inflation rate is considered as one of the convergence criteria for the successful implementation of monetary union in the zone. Although there has been empirical evidence that the relationship between inflation and output growth in the WAMZ is non-linear, the question yet to be answered is, “at what level is inflation detrimental to economic growth?” This paper extends the link of analysis by investigating the optimal inflation for the WAMZ countries using the quadratic approach to threshold estimation. The findings drawing from economic theory and analysis suggests that inflation rate in the WAMZ is significantly associated with lower growth only after it reaches 12.86 percent. The result further indicates that there are significant differences in the inflation threshold levels in the WAMZ countries. The findings of this research are not surprising given the institutional features and structure of the different countries in the zone. The findings of the research suggest that monetary authorities in the WAMZ countries could accommodate inflation rate up to the threshold level, even when that is higher than what is currently being targeted in the zone, so as not to stifle growth in the area. Also, although the WAMZ countries belong to the same geographical area, which could enhance group formation; there could be other sources of heterogeneity like different political, legal, economic, and national policies that drive individual growth processes in the zone.Central Bank of Nigeria
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Espejo, Ortega Alberto Octavio. "O plano de estabilização heterodoxo a experiência comparada de Argentina, Brasil e Peru /." Rio de Janeiro : Departamento de Relações Institucionais, Gabinete da Presidência, 1989. http://catalog.hathitrust.org/api/volumes/oclc/30357557.html.
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Thadden, Goetz Henning von. "Inflation in the reconstruction of Poland 1918-27." Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 1995. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.309535.
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Lam, Kwok Ying. "Institutions and economic development." Thesis, University of Birmingham, 2011. http://etheses.bham.ac.uk//id/eprint/1331/.
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This thesis composes of four empirical studies with an attempt to assess the role of institutions as key determinant of cross-country development. We have unbundled the different facets of institutions, including the security of property rights, democracy, regulation and stability of monetary policy. In Chapter 2, we investigate the direct impact of institutions on economic growth using dynamic panel data estimations. Employing this estimator aims at alleviating the technical problems embedded in the existing literature. Our results suggest that the security of property rights and stability of monetary policy have direct impact on economic growth, whereas democracy and regulation are not directly growth-enhancing. In Chapter 3, we further explore the role of democracy and regulation in the development process. We empirically test whether economic reform is more likely to take place in democratic economies. The answer seems affirmative. More specifically, our empirical results show that democracy causes reforms in redistributive policies, trade liberalisation and credit market deregulation. In the next Chapter, we consider the institutional barriers as compared to natural barrier and at-the-board barriers as determinants of bilateral FDI. The augmented gravity model provides empirical evidences to support that geography, regional integration and domestic regulatory environment of the destination economies all have significant impacts on FDI inflows. In particular, credit market regulation is amongst the most important, which echoes the view that financial development is essential to economic development. In the final empirical work, we hypothesise that institutions matter to cross-country economic performances as economies with better institutions are technically more efficient. We estimate a global stochastic production frontier, where countries lie below the frontier are less efficient. Our empirical results suggest that countries with better security of property rights and fewer regulations allocate their production inputs more efficiently. The effects of democratic regime and stability of monetary policy are also positive to improve inefficiency, if a threshold level of human capital is reached. Other possible factors like openness and human capital, in turn, seem not to play direct role. Our research provides empirical basis to understand how particular aspects of institutions could affect development outcomes.
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Yin, Xiaopeng 1963. "The effect of economic integration on endogenous economic growth." Thesis, McGill University, 1995. http://digitool.Library.McGill.CA:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=23435.
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This thesis presents a survey of the development of economic growth theory, including the latest developments in the relationship between international economic integration through international flows of goods and/or knowledge and endogenous economic growth. Based on the following literature review, a new and more reasonable model for the research and development (i.e., the R&D) sector--a sector which is considered the source of long-run growth--is offered in order to develop and improve the framework built by Rivera-Batiz and Rome (1991), i.e. the RBR model. This new model will make the RBR framework more complete and rational. In this new model, it is proved that any form of economic integration will increase the long-run rate of growth, and these results are compared with those of the RBR. Moreover, Devereux and Lapham's efforts to find some dynamic analysis along the transitional path under two different situations: knowledge flows only, and both goods and knowledge flows, are continued in the same model. It is found that when only knowledge is allowed to flow across borders, economic integration generates corner solutions for the production of the R&D sector, while this does not happen when complete goods and knowledge flows exist. However, the real balanced growth rates in these diverse situations are higher than they are in autarky.
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Vega, Marco. "Macroeconomic models for inflation targeting in economies with financial dollarisation." Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 2006. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/3190/.
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After an introductory chapter, the thesis is divided in three parts. In the first part, chapter 2 includes domestic financial dollarisation into an otherwise standard DSGE model of a small open economy. Domestic financial dollarisation implies that some of the assets of households and some liabilities of financial intermediaries are denominated in a foreign currency. The main implication is that exchange rate swings affect the financial wealth of households and disrupt production. The chapter also derives a New-Keynesian Phillips curve augmented with agency costs. Chapter 3, sets up a framework whereby demand substitution occurs when cheaper imported goods appear and trigger a propagation mechanism in non-tradeable prices. As in the previous chapter, Chapter 3 disentangles the dynamics of inflation exploring yet another effect that explains how the fall in world inflation might drag down non-tradeable inflation in a small open economy. The second part of the thesis deals with operational issues; notably the inflation forecast and instrument setting. Chapter 4 proposes a Bayesian method to combine model-based density forecasts with policy makers’ subjective priors. Next, Chapter 5 estimates forward-looking interest rate rules by quantile regressions. The advantage of quantile regressions is that we can learn about the likely feedback from forecasts to instruments, not only on the mean value but on different quantiles of the inflation forecast distribution. Thus, we can gain some added information about monetary authorities’ risk balance or the nature of their loss function. In the last part of the thesis, Chapter 6 provides an econometric evaluation of the effects of inflation targeting adoption on the dynamics of inflation. This evaluation covers developed and emerging-market inflation targeters alike.
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Gibbs, Scott A. "Economic Development in a Global Economy| A Delphi Study of Economic Development Experts." Thesis, University of Phoenix, 2018. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10786063.
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Economic globalization and digital technologies are disruptive forces in local and regional economies. The mobility of capital assets is increasing as business seeks global strategic business alliances, access to foreign markets, and favorable operating cost advantages. Business and industry lifecycles are shortening as digital technologies are disrupting legacy business models. This global economic paradigm is challenging economic development efforts to attract private investment, grow jobs, and facilitate sustainable economic health in local and regional economies. As economic developers respond to these new economic contingencies, will they continue to embrace institutionalized strategies from earlier economic paradigms, or will they support strategies that respond to the new dynamics of this global and digital economy? This qualitative study investigated this question using the Delphi study method with a panel of economic development experts. An iterative series of three online surveys was administered with 30 Certified Economic Developers, including a round-one survey presenting an open-ended question to capture the opinions of study participants on strategies to promote economic development. Opinions that emerged from the round-one survey were presented to study participants in round-two and round-three online surveys with the goal of facilitating consensus. The study sought to answer whether the panel of experts agreed on traditional economic development strategies, or embraced new strategies to respond to contingencies of the global and digital economic paradigm.
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Kang, Sungjun. "Forecasting inflation with probit and regression models /." free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 1999. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p9946268.
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Smithin, John. "The rate of interest, economic growth, and inflation. An alternative theoretical perspective." Inst. für Volkswirtschaftstheorie und -politik, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, 2002. http://epub.wu.ac.at/1458/1/document.pdf.
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The premise of this paper is that in a monetary production economy, policy decisions of the central bank, or more generally the 'monetary authority', set the tone not only for nominal interest rates but also for 'real' interest rates defined in the usual way. This is a different question than that of which institution(s) acquire the status of monetary authority at any particular stage of socioeconomic or technological development. Rather the suggestion is that the existence of some such social structure is a prerequisite if anything resembling capitalist monetary production is to be viable. The paper demonstrates that a coherent macroeconomic theory can be elaborated on this basis, including an explanation of economic growth, the business cycle, inflation, the functional distribution of income, the 'Keynesian' problem of the impact of demand growth on economic growth, endogenous money, cumulative causation, and endogenous technical change. (author's abstract)Series: Working Papers Series "Growth and Employment in Europe: Sustainability and Competitiveness"