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Relevant bibliographies by topics / Economic theory of trade

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Academic literature on the topic 'Economic theory of trade'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 4 June 2021

Last updated: 8 February 2022

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Journal articles on the topic "Economic theory of trade"

1

Bliss, Christopher. "THE NEW TRADE THEORY AND ECONOMIC POLICY." Oxford Review of Economic Policy 3, no. 1 (1987): 20–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/3.1.20.

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Bagwell, Kyle, and Robert W. Staiger. "An Economic Theory of GATT." American Economic Review 89, no. 1 (March 1, 1999): 215–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.89.1.215.

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We propose a unified theoretical framework within which to interpret and evaluate the foundational principles of GATT. Working within a general equilibrium trade model, we represent government preferences in a way that is consistent with national income maximization but also allows for the possibility of distributional concerns as emphasized in leading political-economy models. Using this general framework, we establish that GATT's principles of reciprocity and non-discrimination can be viewed as simple rules that assist governments in their effort to implement efficient trade agreements. From this perspective, we argue that preferential agreements undermine GATT's ability to deliver efficient multilateral outcomes. (JEL F02, F13, F15)

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Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban. "A Spatial Theory of Trade." American Economic Review 95, no. 5 (November 1, 2005): 1464–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/000282805775014371.

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The equilibrium relationship between trade and the spatial distribution of economic activity is fundamental to the analysis of national and regional trade patterns, as well as to the effect of trade frictions. We study this relationship using a trade model with a continuum of regions, transport costs, and agglomeration effects caused by production externalities. We analyze the equilibrium specialization and trade patterns for different levels of transport costs and externality parameters. Understanding trade via the distribution of economic activity in space naturally rationalizes the evidence on border effects and the “gravity equation.”

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McCrate, Elaine. "Trade, Merger and Employment: Economic Theory on Marriage." Review of Radical Political Economics 19, no. 1 (March 1987): 73–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/048661348701900104.

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Rahim, Sikander. "What use is the Neo-Classical Theory of International Trade?" LAHORE JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS 4, no. 1 (January 1, 1999): 89–114. http://dx.doi.org/10.35536/lje.1999.v4.i1.a7.

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International economic policy is now more under the sway of orthodox economics than it has ever been. The main international economic institutions, the IMF, the World Bank, the WTO, and the major developed economies are unremitting advocates of free trade and impose their views on the developing countries. And the developing countries, whose attempts at economic development through protection have mostly failed, are on the whole inclined to accept these views. Over the last twenty years economic policy in these countries has more and more come to be formulated by orthodox neo-classical economists, often described in the press as “reformers”, who advocate more reliance on markets and less protection against imports.

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Volchkova, N. "New Theory of International Trade and New Economic Geography (Nobel Prize in Economics 2008)." Voprosy Ekonomiki, no. 1 (January 20, 2009): 68–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.32609/0042-8736-2009-1-68-83.

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The paper reviews Paul Krugman’s contributions that earned him Nobel Prize in Economics of 2008 and grounded two fields of economic theory — new theory of international trade and new economic geography. The paper shows how the assumption of internal increasing returns to scale and monopolistic competition borrowed by Krugman from the industrial organization theory changed the conclusions of standard models and enriched our understanding of international trade and spatial distribution of economic activity.

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Urbatsch, Robert. "A Referendum on Trade Theory: Voting on Free Trade in Costa Rica." International Organization 67, no. 1 (January 2013): 197–214. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0020818312000355.

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AbstractResearch on mass opinion in international political economy overwhelmingly relies on survey data. This poses problems of external validity, especially for a frequently low-salience issue such as trade policy. To examine whether survey findings about attitudes toward economic openness apply outside of surveys, this note considers patterns of voting in the 2007 Costa Rican plebiscite about joining the Central American Free Trade Area. Several extant theories appear to explain voting patterns, but the results are less in line with traditional economic models based on locally important economic sectors.

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Bagwell, Kyle, and Robert W. Staiger. "Economic Theory and the Interpretation of GATT/WTO." American Economist 46, no. 2 (October 2002): 3–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/056943450204600201.

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Over the past 50 years, a remarkable degree of trade liberalization has been achieved through GATT/WTO negotiations. In this paper, we describe work that provides a theoretical interpretation of this institution. We emphasize two key features of GATT/WTO: reciprocity and enforcement. We also identify important areas for future research. The work described here contributes to the fields of International Trade and Applied Game Theory.

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Friedman, David D., William M. Landes, and Richard A. Posner. "Some Economics of Trade Secret Law." Journal of Economic Perspectives 5, no. 1 (February 1, 1991): 61–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.5.1.61.

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Despite the practical importance of trade secrets to the business community, the law of trade secrets is a neglected orphan in economic analysis. This paper sketches an approach to the economics of trade secret law that connects it more closely both to other areas of intellectual property and to broader issues in the positive economic theory of the common law.

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Copeland, Dale C. "Economic Interdependence and War: A Theory of Trade Expectations." International Security 20, no. 4 (April 1996): 5–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/isec.20.4.5.

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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Economic theory of trade"

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Berdell, John Farley. "Essays on the classical theory of economic growth and trade." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1991. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.386356.

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Iyalla, Apiribo Joe. "Market structure induced trade and development." Thesis, University of Oxford, 1993. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.386482.

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Fagerberg, Jan Ernst. "Technology, growth and trade : Schumpeterian perspectives." Thesis, University of Sussex, 1988. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.254261.

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Walker, J. "International trade and the Scottish economy : A 'pattern' model of the published data on Scottish trade 1968-1979." Thesis, University of Strathclyde, 1985. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.372114.

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Ortiz-Fernandez, Salvador. "International trade, research and development and growth." Thesis, Lancaster University, 1999. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.302409.

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Browne, Brendan Mark. "Trade Boards in Northern Ireland, 1909-45." Thesis, Queen's University Belfast, 1989. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.335981.

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Massilia, Marzia Raybaudi. "Essays on foreign direct investment and trade." Thesis, University of Southampton, 1997. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.390330.

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McCausland, W. David. "Exchange rate hysteresis from trade account interaction." Thesis, Keele University, 1995. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.294199.

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Garred, Jason. "Trade in raw materials and economic development." Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 2015. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/3092/.

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This thesis considers three cases in which trade in natural resources and other raw materials can inform us about wider questions of economic development. The first chapter, “Capturing the Value Chain: The Persistence of Trade Policy in China After WTO Accession”, considers whether in the GATT/WTO era, developing countries are still able to actively conduct trade policy. In this study, I show that after China’s entry into WTO, required import tariff reductions on downstream sectors have been partly offset by an alternative policy with similar effects: export restrictions on raw materials. I also find that larger rises in Chinese raw materials export taxes after WTO accession have been associated with greater downstream export growth. The second chapter, “Winners and Losers from a Commodities-for-Manufactures Trade Boom”, examines two contrasting outcomes of the ‘de-industrialization’ associated with rising trade between China and other developing countries. In particular, this chapter compares changes in labour market outcomes in Brazilian regions stimulated by rising demand from China for raw materials, with Brazilian regions whose manufacturing sectors have been harmed by Chinese import competition. While there was slower growth in manufacturing wages and greater rises in local wage inequality in ‘loser’ regions between 2000 and 2010, ‘winner’ regions experienced higher wage growth, lower takeup of cash transfers and positive effects on job quality. The third chapter,“Access to Raw Materials and Local Comparative Advantage: The Effects of India’s Freight Equalization Policy”, considers the importance of access to raw materials for industrial development. It does so by looking at the effects of a Indian policy that aimed to remove regional comparative advantages associated with proximity to raw materials, by equalizing prices of steel across India. The results suggest that in practice, this policy may have had only a limited effect on access to raw materials across Indian states.

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Hou, Liyan. "Explaining trade flows and determinants of bilaterial trade." Thesis, University of Birmingham, 2010. http://etheses.bham.ac.uk//id/eprint/719/.

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This thesis provides the empirical analyses for international trade flows and the determinants of bilateral trade. The main modelling framework used in this thesis is gravity model, so firstly, a detailed literature review for the gravity trade model is given. The three empirical studies analyze the role of main determinants of international trade flows in details, including cultural similarities, geographical factors and trade costs. Our findings are summarized as follows. First, the gravity model works well with aggregate data as well as disaggregated data. The core gravity factors and the cultural similarities are the major determinants of China’s bilateral trade. Moreover, China has great export potential with its neighbour countries in Asia, and considerable import potential with most of its trade partners. On the other hand, China’s export potential is still in the labour and resource intensive, low- and middle-level skill-intensive product groups. Second, we combine log-linear and non-linear estimation techniques, including Tobit estimation to analyze the role of geographical distance on trade. The findings indicate that the absolute value of the distance coefficient decreases over time, which give a reasonable explanation for “missing globalization puzzle”. Finally, by estimating a modified gravity equation of panel data for China, Japan and Korea over 16 years, we find that transport costs have a significant influence on regional trade flows in Northeast Asia.

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Books on the topic "Economic theory of trade"

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Neuefeind, Wilhelm, and Raymond G. Riezman, eds. Economic Theory and International Trade. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1992. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-77671-7.

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Thirlwall, A. P. Trade, trade liberalisation, and economic growth: Theory and evidence. Abidjan, Côte d'Ivoire: African Development Bank, 2000.

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Developments of international trade theory. Boston: Kluwer Academic, 2001.

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Gandolfo, Giancarlo. International trade theory and policy. Berlin: Springer, 1998.

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Ogus, A. I. Regulation: Legal formand economic theory. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1994.

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J, Field Alfred, ed. International economics: Trade theory and policy. 3rd ed. Boston: McGraw-Hill, 1998.

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Train, Kenneth. Optimal regulation: The economic theory of natural monopoly. Cambridge, Mass: MIT Press, 1991.

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The pure theory of international trade. New Brunswick, N.J: Transaction Publishers, 2006.

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Economic theory and international trade in natural exhaustible resources. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1985.

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10

Naylor, Robin. An economic theory of the open shop trade union. Coventry: University of WarwickDepartment of Economics, 1991.

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Book chapters on the topic "Economic theory of trade"

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van Meerhaeghe, M. A. G. "The Theory of International Trade." In Economic Theory, 69–84. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-1365-8_8.

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Mikić, Mia. "The Theory of Economic Integration." In International Trade, 441–65. London: Macmillan Education UK, 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-26372-1_14.

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Thirlwall, A. P., and Penélope Pacheco-López. "Trade Theory, Trade Policy and Economic Development." In Economics of Development, 473–532. London: Macmillan Education UK, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/978-1-137-57795-5_15.

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Thirlwall, A. P. "Trade Theory, Trade Policy and Economic Development." In Economics of Development, 501–60. London: Macmillan Education UK, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-0-230-34440-2_15.

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Kimbugwe, Kato, Nicholas Perdikis, May T. Yeung, and William A. Kerr. "Regional Integration Theory." In Economic Development Through Regional Trade, 76–98. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230369924_4.

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Gandolfo, Giancarlo. "Globalization and Economic Geography." In International Trade Theory and Policy, 311–17. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-61680-8_17.

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Zhang, Wei-Bin. "Trade Pattern, Tourism, and Global Development." In The General Economic Theory, 295–326. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-56204-5_14.

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Smeets, Maarten. "The theory and practice of economic sanctions." In Russian Trade Policy, 66–78. Abingdon, Oxon; New York, NY: Routledge, 2019. | Series: Routledge studies in the European economy: Routledge, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9780429464041-5.

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Bernauer, Thomas. "Deriving People’s Trade Policy Preferences from Macroeconomic Trade Theory." In Economic Ideas You Should Forget, 15–16. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-47458-8_6.

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Sandroni, Alvaro. "Speculative trade, asset prices and investment levels." In Studies in Economic Theory, 237–47. Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-05858-9_12.

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Conference papers on the topic "Economic theory of trade"

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"Cash holding: static trade-off theory or financing hierarchy theory." In 2019 Asia-Pacific Forum on Economic and Social Development. The Academy of Engineering and Education (AEE), 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.35532/jsss.v2.026.

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Zi-Jun, Huang, and Dong Tian. "Evaluation of Employees' Competence in Transnational Corporations Based on Complex Network Theory." In 2014 International Conference on Economic Management and Trade Cooperation (EMTC 2014). Paris, France: Atlantis Press, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/emtc-14.2014.80.

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Jing, Gao, and Wang Hui-Hui. "The Influence of Political Skill on Workplace Friendship Based on the Social Capital Theory." In 2014 International Conference on Economic Management and Trade Cooperation (EMTC 2014). Paris, France: Atlantis Press, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/emtc-14.2014.48.

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Qing, Hua, Liao Zhi-Gao, Tang Sheng-Jie, and Qiu Hui. "Guangxi s Logistics Distribution Network Based on the Theory of the Uncertainty Decision-making Model." In 2014 International Conference on Economic Management and Trade Cooperation (EMTC 2014). Paris, France: Atlantis Press, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/emtc-14.2014.20.

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Alperen, Ümit, and Ahmet Günay. "Trade Expectations Theory and China’s Rising: Towards a Peaceful Future?" In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c05.00907.

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Since mid-1990, it has been discussed that China’s economic rise would affect political space. There are some worries that the “rejuvenation” of China as economic, politic, geo-strategic power could challenge to the current international system. Hence this rising has been called “China threat theory” and it could cause a conflict in international system. According to realist school, China’s peaceful rise is almost impossible, so China will threat to the current international system and clash with hegemonic power. They also provide some empirical evidence from history. On the other hand, Liberals expresses that trade provides valuable benefits to any particular states. So, China as a dependent state should avoid from war or conflict, since peaceful trading gives it all the benefits of close ties without any of the costs and risks of war. This paper attempts to examine ‘China’s peaceful rise’ based on interdependence and trade expectations theory within the context of international political economy. To analyze whether China threat or not to the world, we have to know the relationship between economic and politics. Trade expectations theory could explain the rise of China with establishes bridge between incompetence of realist and liberal theories. According to trade expectations theory, the rise of China will be peaceful because of China’s expectations as economically are positive. For this reason, China as a rational actor chooses win-win without risk instead of win-lose or lose-lose. If China’s expectations turn into negative in future, its policies could change from cooperation to conflict.

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Lei, Lei, and Xu Yan-Mei. "The Constituent Elements of Leadership at Basic Level Organizations: An Exploratory Research Based on Grounded Theory." In 2014 International Conference on Economic Management and Trade Cooperation (EMTC 2014). Paris, France: Atlantis Press, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/emtc-14.2014.70.

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Tunçsiper, Bedriye, and Ömer Faruk Biçen. "Economic Freedoms and Economic Growth: An Investigation on Emerging Market Economies." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c06.01271.

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The common view in the economics theory relating to the fact that economic freedom will raise labor productivity and it will provide effective use of scarce resources becomes a current issue with the increase in the number of papers investigating the effect of economic freedom on economic growth. One of the main reasons of the increasing number of those papers is that economic freedom can be measured quantitatively (numerically) through the indexes calculated by various institutions. In this paper, the relationship between economic freedoms and economic growth for some emerging market economies is investigated. In estimating of the relationship between economic freedoms and economic growth, overall economic freedom index, property right index, business freedom index, trade freedom index and investment freedom index, which was created by the Heritage Foundation was used. Investment/GDP ratio and population dependency ratio are also control variables in the model. In the paper, in which panel fixed effect model was used, property right index, investment freedom index and population dependency ratio affect economic growth negatively, but business freedom index, trade freedom index and investment/GDP ratio affect economic growth positively. It isn’t found that there is a significantly relationship between overall economic freedom index and economic growth.

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Savrul, Mesut, and Ahmet İncekara. "The Effect of Globalization on International Trade: The Black Sea Economic Cooperation Case." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c06.01374.

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Globalization including political, social and economic processes is frequently associated with multinational companies and investment, international trade and regionalism, global finance and money. While globalization process reduced activity and control of national governments on their economy and trade their place is substituted by international companies. The national economies on the other hand try to keep pace with the change in economic system by deregulating their international trade barriers via regional trade agreements and economic integrations. Based on the assumption that the globalization has liberalized their infrastructure of trade, this study investigates the balance of trade in the member countries of The Black Sea Economic Cooperation Organization (BSEC). The data is collected from international trade database of UNCTAD and globalization index of KOF Swiss Economic Institute. The variables are evaluated using panel data analysis and the results have shown that globalization has a significant impact on international trade and the globalization process had a positive effect on the liberalization of trade in the member countries of the BSEC.

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Ru, Feng. "“Reverse Globalization” and Sino-US Trade War : Based on the perspective of Evolutionary Game Theory." In 2020 2nd International Conference on Economic Management and Model Engineering (ICEMME). IEEE, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icemme51517.2020.00029.

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Çağlayan Akay, Ebru, and Zamira Oskonbaeva. "An Empirical Analysis of the Linder Theory for Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development Member Countries." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c08.01854.

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Linder theory is one of the main theories of the international trade based on the demand side. It implies that the countries with similar demand structures trade more intensely with one another. This study presents empirical evidence in support of the Linder theory of international trade for selected OECD Countries. In order to analyze the validity of Linder hypothesis for these countries, Panel Tobit approach has been employed using the annual data for the period 2001-2005. The empirical results provide evidence supporting the panel tobit model in terms of applicability and robustness. The results of the study also show some insights in support of the Linder hypothesis for OECD Countries.

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Reports on the topic "Economic theory of trade"

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Maggi, Giovanni, and Andres Rodriguez-Clare. A Political-Economy Theory of Trade Agreements. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, October 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w11716.

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Wijnands, J. H. M., and A. D. Verhoog. Competitiveness of the EU food industry : ex-post assessmentof trade performance embedded in international economic theory. Wageningen: LEI Wageningen UR, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.18174/369980.

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Guido, Porto. Winners and loser of trade liberalization: frictions, rigidities and reforms. Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF), March 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.46446/publication_r4d.2020.1.en.

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Trade liberalization brings economic gains to the economy due to efficiency improvements and lower prices. The gains, however, may not be for everybody: export sectors win and import sectors lose. This creates a distributional conflict. The gains and losses from trade, and the attendant conflict, evolve as the economy adjusts. This depends on capital and labor market rigidities. There is room for policies to help realize and enhance the gains from trade and to mitigate the losses.

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Díaz de Astarloa, Bernardo, Nanno Mulder, Sandra Corcuera-Santamaría, Winfried Weck, Lucas Barreiros, Rodrigo Contreras Huerta, and Alejandro Puente. Post Pandemic Covid-19 Economic Recovery: Enabling Latin America and the Caribbean to Better Harness E-commerce and Digital Trade. Edited by Marcee Gómez. Inter-American Development Bank, August 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003436.

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This report shows that Latin America and the Caribbean faces critical policy challenges going forward. It must accelerate the digital transformation to allow businesses and consumers to adapt to a new normal and leverage pandemic recovery to create stronger economies, and also tackle long-standing barriers to adopting digital technologies and bridging digital divides. These have impeded sustained and equitable economic growth even before the pandemic struck. This crisis should be a wake-up call for governments, the private sector, civil society, and international development partners to come together and take concerted actions to advance on consistent, long-term, and sustainable e-commerce strategies that are at the forefront of national and regional productive development agendas. Just as digital solutions allowed countries to overcome the increased role of distance within the context of the pandemic in shaping consumption and business, they should also be harnessed to increase regional economic integration beyond this emergency situation.

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Tull, Kerina. Economic Impact of Local Vaccine Manufacturing. Institute of Development Studies (IDS), February 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.19088/k4d.2021.034.

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Over a period of time, a tier of mostly middle-income developing countries has developed a considerable pharmaceutical and vaccine production capacity. However, outcomes have not always been positive for domestic manufacturers in developing countries. Economic and health lessons learned from vaccine manufacturing in developing countries include challenges and positive spill-over effects. Evidence for this rapid review is taken from the south and southeast Asia (India, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam), and Latin America (Brazil, Cuba, Mexico). Although data on locally manufactured drugs on the balance of trade was available, this was not readily available for vaccine manufacturing. The evidence used in this review was taken from grey and academic literature, as well as interviews with economic specialists. Although market reports on vaccine production are available for most of these countries, their data is not in the public domain.

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Jones, Emily, Beatriz Kira, Anna Sands, and Danilo B. Garrido Alves. The UK and Digital Trade: Which way forward? Blavatnik School of Government, February 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.35489/bsg-wp-2021/038.

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The internet and digital technologies are upending global trade. Industries and supply chains are being transformed, and the movement of data across borders is now central to the operation of the global economy. Provisions in trade agreements address many aspects of the digital economy – from cross-border data flows, to the protection of citizens’ personal data, and the regulation of the internet and new technologies like artificial intelligence and algorithmic decision-making. The UK government has identified digital trade as a priority in its Global Britain strategy and one of the main sources of economic growth to recover from the pandemic. It wants the UK to play a leading role in setting the international standards and regulations that govern the global digital economy. The regulation of digital trade is a fast-evolving and contentious issue, and the US, European Union (EU), and China have adopted different approaches. Now that the UK has left the EU, it will need to navigate across multiple and often conflicting digital realms. The UK needs to decide which policy objectives it will prioritise, how to regulate the digital economy domestically, and how best to achieve its priorities when negotiating international trade agreements. There is an urgent need to develop a robust, evidence-based approach to the UK’s digital trade strategy that takes into account the perspectives of businesses, workers, and citizens, as well as the approaches of other countries in the global economy. This working paper aims to inform UK policy debates by assessing the state of play in digital trade globally. The authors present a detailed analysis of five policy areas that are central to discussions on digital trade for the UK: cross-border data flows and privacy; internet access and content regulation; intellectual property and innovation; e-commerce (including trade facilitation and consumer protection); and taxation (customs duties on e-commerce and digital services taxes). In each of these areas the authors compare and contrast the approaches taken by the US, EU and China, discuss the public policy implications, and examine the choices facing the UK.

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Forero-Alvarado, Santiago, Nicolás Moreno-Arias, and Juan J. Ospina-Tejeiro. Humans Against Virus or Humans Against Humans: A Game Theory Approach to the COVID-19 Pandemic. Banco de la República, May 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/be.1160.

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Abstract:

Externalities and private information are key characteristics of an epidemic like the Covid-19 pandemic. We study the welfare costs stemming from the incomplete information environment that these characteristics foster. We develop a framework that embeds a game theory approach into a macro SIR model to analyze the role of information in determining the extent of the health-economy trade-off of a pandemic. We apply the model to the Covid-19 epidemic in the US and find that the costs of keeping health information private are between USD $5.9$ trillion and USD $6.7$ trillion. We then find an optimal policy of disclosure and divulgation that, combined with testing and containment measures, can improve welfare. Since it is private information about individuals' health what produces the greatest welfare losses, finding ways to make such information known as precisely as possible, would result in significantly fewer deaths and significantly higher economic activity.

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Banerjee, Onil, Martin Cicowiez, Marcia Macedo, Žiga Malek, Peter H. Verburg, Sean Goodwin, Renato Vargas, et al. An Amazon Tipping Point: The Economic and Environmental Fallout. Inter-American Development Bank, July 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0003385.

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The Amazon biome, despite its resilience, is being pushed by unsustainable economic drivers towards an ecological tipping point where restoration to its previous state may no longer possible. This is the result of self-reinforcing interactions between deforestation, climate change and fire. In this paper, we develop scenarios that represent movement towards an Amazon tipping point and strategies to avert one. We assess the economic, natural capital and ecosystem services impacts of these scenarios using the Integrated Economic-Environmental Modeling (IEEM) Platform linked with high resolution spatial land use land cover change and ecosystem services modeling (IEEMESM). This papers main contributions are developing: (i) a framework for evaluating strategies to avert an Amazon tipping point based on their relative costs, benefits and trade-offs, and; (ii) a first approximation of the economic, natural capital and ecosystem services impacts of movement towards an Amazon tipping point, and evidence to build the economic case for strategies to avert it. We find that a conservative estimate of the cumulative regional cost through 2050 of an Amazon tipping point would be US$256.6 billion in Gross Domestic Product. Policies that would contribute to averting a tipping point, including strongly reducing deforestation, investing in climate-adapted agriculture, and improving fire management, would generate approximately US$339.3 billion in additional wealth. From a public investment perspective, the returns to implementing strategies for averting a tipping point would be US$29.5 billion. Quantifying the costs, benefits and trade-offs of policies to avert a tipping point in a transparent and replicable manner can pave the way for evidence-based approaches to support policy action focusing on the design of regional strategies for the Amazon biome and catalyze global cooperation and financing to enable their implementation.

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Leamer, Edward. Testing Trade Theory. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, January 1992. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w3957.

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Leamer, Edward, and James Levinsohn. International Trade Theory: The Evidence. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, November 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w4940.

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