Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Economical crimes'

A Constituição de 1988 é dirigente, isto é, traça os objetivos ideológicos da ação política do Estado brasileiro, inclusive por meio de imperativos à atividade legislativa. A República Federativa do Brasil autodefine-se como um Estado Democrático de Direito (artigo 1º), que tem como dois de seus fundamentos a dignidade da pessoa humana e a cidadania. Além disso, consta do artigo 3º da Constituição a chamada cláusula transformadora, que estabelece como objetivos fundamentais a serem alcançados pela República: a construção de uma sociedade livre, justa e solidária; a garantia do desenvolvimento nacional; a erradicação da pobreza e a redução das desigualdades sociais. Para alcançar tais objetivos, a própria Constituição estabelece, em seu artigo 170, que a ordem econômica deve submeter-se aos ditames da justiça social. A política criminal é parte das estratégias de intervenção da política social para consecução dos objetivos dirigentes traçados na Constituição. Para tanto, utiliza-se de dados empíricos, que lhe são fornecidos pela criminologia, sobre o atual estágio de desenvolvimento da sociedade contemporânea, a atividade econômica globalizada e a criminalidade econômica, com sua vitimização massiva e sua afetação de bens jurídicos supraindividuais e sociais. O presente trabalho visa a discutir as propostas político-criminais defendidas por Winfried Hassemer e Jesús-María Silva Sánchez para a criminalidade econômica na sociedade contemporânea, contrapondo-as à proposta de responsabilizar penalmente as pessoas jurídicas.
The Constitution of 1988 is a mandatory guideline, which means, it traces the ideological objectives of the political actions of the Brazilian State, including by demanding to legislative activity. The Federative Republic of Brazil defines itself as a Democratic State of Law (article 1), which has as two of its basis the dignity of the human being and the citizenship. Beyond that, the article 3 refers to a clause known as the transformer clause, which states as the main objectives to be achieved by the Republic are: to build a free, just and solidary society; to assure the national development; to eradicate the poverty and to reduce the social unequalities. To succeed in these purposes the own Constitution states in the article 170 that the economical order must be submitted to the social justice commands. The criminal policy is part of the intervention strategies of social policy to achieve the objectives guided by the Constitution. To do so, there are used empirical data, which are provided by the criminology, about the actual stage of development of contemporary society, the globalized economical activity and the economical criminality, with its massive victimization and or that affects social and supra-individual goods. The present essay aims to discuss the proposition of criminal policies made by Winfried Hassemer and Jesús-María Silva Sánchez to face the economical criminality in the contemporary society, in opposition to the suggestion that defends the criminal liability of the companies.

This paper investigates the impact of the 2008's financial crisis on local crime rates in Sweden. I deploy a difference-in-differences approach that contrasts the changes in reported crimes between municipalities that are more or less crisis-exposed. The results show no significant effect on any crime category nor the aggregate crime rate. However, there are indications of more densely populated municipalities experiencing an increase in crimes with underlying financial incentives, although not robust. The results are similar when the effect of the Great Recession is compared to the major financial crisis that hit Sweden in the early 90s, suggesting that economic crises do not cause any reactions in crimes. One explanation could be the increase in social grants recipients and the participation in labour market programmes. Both of which cushions the fall in income and reduces criminal motivation. The results appear robust for a variety of alternative severity measures. Potential spillovers between adjacent municipalities do not seem to be a threat as the results are similar for county-level regressions. Overall, the findings in this paper point towards the number of reported crimes being unaffected by the crisis exposure measured as the employment change and change in retail sales.

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The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of socioeconomic variables in the indexes of economic crimes in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. Thus, a descriptive analysis of economic crimes and crimes against the individual took place. Then, it was necessary to map crime, to identify each cluster group of crimes under study; and finally identify factors that may influence the rates of economic crimes for the State of Rio Grande do Sul. The theme shows importance, since it depicts one of the biggest problems faced by contemporary society. Therefore, discussions about the topic promote inferences that provide the creation of public policies aimed to combating crime. In order to meet such a proposal, this study was based on models of the Space Econometrics. For the implementation of the study, secondary databases were used from official sources such as the Department of Public Security of Rio Grande do Sul State (SSP / RS), Institute of Applied Economic Research (IPEA), Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) and the Department of SUS (DATASUS). As a result, it highlights the space concentration of economic crimes, especially in the metropolitan area of Porto Alegre and the coastal region of the state. It also highlights the positive effect that IFDM variables - income and employment, Bolsa Familia and GINI Index presented in relation to the dependent variable Economic Crimes, and the negative effect that the variable rate of illiteracy presented regarding the dependent variable. Among the conclusions of this research, there is the motivational issue involving each group of crime. It plays an important role in the commission of the tort, that is verified by the spatial distribution of crime in the state. The Bolsa Familia program, contrary to what was expected, did not appear as a variable that tends to help decrease crime rates against property in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. It is concluded, finally, that the concentration of income is the main variable that causes the increase in economic crimes. However, education is the main factor that helps reduce economic crimes in the state of Rio Grande do Sul.
A proposta deste estudo é analisar o impacto das variáveis socioeconômicas nos índices de crimes econômicos no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Neste intuito, buscou-se primeiramente realizar uma análise descritiva dos crimes econômicos e crimes contra a pessoa; em um segundo momento realizar um mapeamento da criminalidade, a fim de identificar cluster de cada grupo de crimes em estudo; e por fim identificar fatores que possam influenciar os índices de crimes econômicos para o Estado do Rio Grande do Sul. O tema se mostra de suma importância, uma vez que retrata um dos maiores problemas enfrentados pela sociedade contemporânea, por conseguinte, discussões em torno da temática promovem inferências que proporcionam a criação de políticas públicas que visam o combate da criminalidade. Com o propósito de atender tal proposta, o presente estudo baseou-se nos modelos da Econometria Espacial. Para a execução do estudo, foram utilizadas bases de dados secundários procedentes de fontes oficiais como a Secretaria de Segurança Pública do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul (SSP/RS), Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (IPEA), Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) e Departamento de Informática do SUS (DATASUS). Como resultados, destacam-se a concentração espacial dos crimes econômicos, principalmente na região metropolitana de Porto Alegre e na região litorânea do Estado. Também destaca-se o efeito positivo que as variáveis IFDM Renda e Emprego, Bolsa Família e Índice de GINI apresentaram em relação à variável dependente Crimes Econômicos, e o efeito negativo que a variável taxa de analfabetismo apresentou com relação à variável dependente. Dentre as conclusões desta pesquisa, nota-se que a questão motivacional que envolve cada grupo de crimes tem um papel importante para o cometimento do ato ilícito, isso se verifica pela distribuição espacial da criminalidade no Estado. O Programa Bolsa Família, ao contrário do que se esperava, não se apresentou como uma variável que tende a auxiliar a diminuição dos índices de criminalidade contra o patrimônio no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Conclui-se, por fim, que a concentração de renda é a principal variável que acarreta o aumento dos crimes econômicos, entretanto, por sua vez, a educação é o principal fator que auxilia na diminuição dos crimes econômicos no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul.

Orientador: Antonio Carlos Macedo e Silva
Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia
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Resumo: A crise econômica de 2008 pode ser analisada pelo arcabouço das teorias keynesianas, em especial a partir das interpretações em torno da teoria da preferência pela liquidez. Esta foi elaborada primeiramente na Teoria Geral de Keynes, mas alcançou interpretações muito diversas nas obras de Kaldor, Hicks, Davidson e Minsky. As idéias expostas por estes autores são capazes de fornecer algumas explicações sobre as escolhas de ativos, em especial os relacionados aos mercados financeiros, e analisar os impactos dinâmicos das decisões de financiamento e alocação do capital. Entretanto, algumas inovações financeiras, como a securitização e os derivativos, que tiveram uma participação fundamental na constituição da crise, não são, de forma geral, exploradas por estes autores. Desta forma, o presente trabalho se propõe a explorar a teoria e as interpretações supracitadas, a fim de construir uma analise teórica da crise de 2008, abarcando as contribuições das inovações financeiras mencionadas. O contexto histórico em torno da crise de 2008, analisado pelo viés teórico keynesiano, é capaz de explicar como esta tomou a forma de uma das mais severas crises da história do capitalismo contemporâneo. Ao se iniciar como uma crise de crédito convencional e aos poucos tomar a forma de uma crise de liquidez e solvência, destaca-se o papel crucial da securitização de créditos e dos derivativos financeiros neste processo, alterando as escolhas de portfólio, as decisões de financiamento e a dinâmica das interações entre os balanços das diversas instituições financeiras da economia norte-americana e mundial
Abstract: The 2008 economic crisis can be analyzed by the framework of post-Keynesian theories, especially the interpretations around the liquidity preference theory. This one was first presented in Keynes' General Theory, but it reached very different interpretations in the work of Kaldor, Hicks, Davidson and Minsky. The ideas put forward by these authors can provide some explanations about the asset choices, particularly those related to financial markets, and analyze the dynamic impact of finance decisions and capital allocation. However, some financial innovations, such as securitization and derivatives, which had a seminal role in the constitution of the crisis, are not generally exploited by these authors. Thus, this study aims to explore the theory and the interpretations above, in order to build a theoretical analysis of the 2008 economic crisis, covering the contributions of the financial innovations mentioned. The historical context surrounding the 2008 economic crisis, analyzed by the bias of Keynesian theory, is able to explain how that took the form of one of the most severe crises in the history of contemporary capitalism. When it start as a conventional credit crisis and gradually take the form of a crisis of liquidity and solvency, it highlight the crucial role of securitization of loans and financial derivatives in this process, changing the portfolio choices, funding decisions and the dynamics of interactions between the balance sheets of many financial institutions in the U.S. economy and the world
Mestrado
Ciências Economicas
Mestre em Ciências Econômicas

O estudo da criminalidade é multidisciplinar e, em razão de suas consequências negativas para o bem-estar social, recentemente, o crime também se tornado um tema de interesse dos economistas. No Brasil, país que apresenta o maior número absoluto de homicídios dolosos no mundo, este interesse surgiu principalmente a partir do início do século XXI. Em meio à crescente literatura sobre o tema, essa tese buscou, por meio de dois artigos, contribuir para a análise e o entendimento deste fenômeno. No primeiro artigo, recorrendo a uma Análise de Fronteira Estocástica, estimou-se e analisou-se o subregistro de crimes contra a propriedade em Minas Gerais. O estudo justifica-se tendo em vista que o subregistro deve afetar a eficiência das políticas de segurança pública, principalmente, no que tange à alocação de recursos. Os resultados do artigo permitiram verificar os principais determinantes do subregistro e, além disso, encontrar importantes consequências do fenômeno. Entre os principais resultados, pode-se destacar que: o subregistro afeta a interpretação das estatísticas oficiais; este fenômeno influencia a atividade criminosa e; há evidências de que o registro de um crime é realizado por meio de uma avaliação de benefício-custo. No segundo artigo desta tese, que pode ser lido de modo independente do primeiro, o objetivo foi verificar, empiricamente, a existência do efeito do custo moral, aproximado pelo capital social, sobre o risco de vitimização para crimes contra a propriedade. O capital social deve afetar a criminalidade tanto pela ótica da vítima, quanto do criminoso. Pela ótica da vítima, maiores níveis de capital social entre os indivíduos elevam a probabilidade de estes cooperarem para um benefício mútuo, como o combate à criminalidade. Sob a ótica do criminoso, o capital social deve elevar o custo moral da atividade criminosa, reduzindo os benefícios da prática e, consequentemente, o risco de vitimização. Apesar da relevância teórica desta variável para explicar a criminalidade, dada a dificuldade de mensuração empírica, na literatura sobre o tema, o custo moral tem sido negligenciado ou considerado através de proxies incapazes de captá-lo adequadamente. Ademais, são escassos na literatura os estudos empíricos que comprovam essa relação, principalmente no Brasil. Como resultado principal do estudo, tem-se que a hipótese de que incrementos no capital social são capazes de reduzir o risco de vitimização não pôde ser rejeitada.
The study of crime is multidisciplinary and, because of its negative consequences for social welfare, crime has also recently become a subject of interest to economists. In Brazil, the country with the highest absolute number of intentional homicides in the world, this interest arose mainly after the beginning of the 21st century. In the midst of the growing literature on the subject, this thesis sought, in two articles, to contribute to the analysis and understanding of this phenomenon. In the first article, using Stochastic Frontier Analysis, the underreporting of crimes against property in Minas Gerais was estimated and analyzed. The study is justified considering that underreporting may affect the efficiency of public security policies, especially regarding resource allocation. The results of the article allowed to verify the main determinants of underreporting and, in addition, to find important consequences of the phenomenon. Among the main results, it can be highlighted that: underreporting affects the interpretation of the official statistics; that this phenomenon influences criminal activity, and that there is evidence that filing a crime report is carried out by means of a benefit-cost evaluation. In the second article of this thesis, which can be read independently of the first one, the objective was to verify the existence of a moral cost effect, approached by social capital, on the risk of victimization for crimes against property. Social capital must affect crime both from the perspective of the victim and of the criminal. From the point of view of the victim, higher levels of social capital among individuals increase the likelihood of cooperating for mutual benefit, such as combating crime. From the point of view of the criminal, social capital must raise the moral cost of criminal activity, reducing the its benefits and, consequently, the risk of victimization. Despite the theoretical relevance of this variable to explain crime, given the difficulty of empirical measurement, moral cost has either been neglected in the literature on the subject or considered through proxies that are unable to assess it adequately. In addition, there are few empirical studies in the literature that prove this relationship, specially in Brazil. As a main result of the study, we conclude that we cannot reject the hypothesis that increases in social capital can reduce the risk of victimization.

L’Amérique Latine et les Caraïbes sont l’une des régions plus violentes du monde. Le niveau de violence est particulièrement élevé dans les plus grandes villes de cette région (UNODC, 2013). La compréhension des déterminants de la criminalité urbaine est donc un défi majeur pour ces pays. Cette thèse a pour but d’explorer le rôle de trois déterminants de la criminalité en Équateur: les inégalités économiques, la taille des villes et le role des émotions liés aux évènements sportifs tels que les matchs de football.Avant d’entreprendre cette analyse empirique, nous proposons une revue des littératures théorique et empirique sur les déterminants de la criminalité urbaine. Une conclusion importante est que les incitations économiques conduisant à des activités criminelles sont influencées par les schémas de localisation des criminels et des victimes. Partant de ce constat, la thèse propose d’entreprendre trois analyses empiriques à différentes échelles géographiques. Tout d’abord, nous explorons l'effet des inégalités de revenus sur le risque de victimisation en Équateur, en utilisant des données individuelles issues de l’enquête nationale de victimisation. Le principal résultat est que, contrairement aux prédictions, le coefficient de Gini a un effet négatif sur la probabilité d’être victime de vols. Ce résultat pourrait être lié à une ségrégation résidentielle élevée ou à un contrôle social élevé contre la criminalité. De plus, les estimations révèlent une relation croissante et concave entre le niveau de revenu des victimes et la probabilité de victimisation concernant les vols de véhicule, qui augmente avec un revenu mensuel jusqu’à 5,100 dollars, et puis diminue.Ensuite, nous testons l'existence d'une prime de criminalité urbaine (criminalité plus élevée dans les zones urbaines) en Équateur, à l’échelle des paroisses. Le principal résultat indique que la taille des villes a une influence non-monotone sur le taux d’homicide. La probabilité de constater un ou plusieurs homicides est plus élevée dans les paroisses les plus peuplées. Toutefois, le taux d’homicide diminue avec le niveau de population dans les paroisses où se produisent des homicides. Concernant les crimes contre la propriété, les résultats confirment l’influence positive de la population sur le nombre de crime par habitant. Enfin, nous estimons l’impact des matchs de football sur le nombre d'homicides et de crimes contre la propriété dans 16 cantons d’Équateur, à l’échelle intra-urbaine. L’objectif est d’étudier l’influence des matchs de football sur les profils temporels et géographiques des crimes, ainsi que l’impact des émotions (frustration et euphorie) liées aux résultats des matchs sur la criminalité. Les résultats indiquent que le nombre d'homicides augmente 0.18% avant le match, tandis que le nombre de crimes contre la propriété augmente 12% après le match, à proximité du stade. Les matchs de football entraînent également une diffusion spatiale de la criminalité dans des quartiers éloignés des stades. Les jours de matchs, les crimes contre la propriété diminuent 0.88% avant le match et les homicides diminuent 0.05% pendant le match, dans les quartiers éloignés des stades. Après le match, les homicides et les crimes contre la propriété augmentent de manière significative dans les quartiers éloignés des stades. Enfin, l'effet des émotions sur les homicides et les crimes contre la propriété n'est pas significatif au niveau agrégé, alors qu’il est significatif en ce qui concerne les homicides commis dans la capitale de l'Équateur, Quito
Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is one of the most violent regions in the world. Importantly, higher levels of violence prevail in most urbanized LAC cities (UNODC, 2013). Understanding the determinants of urban crime is therefore a major challenge for those countries. The purpose of this dissertation is to explore the role of three crime determinants in Ecuador: economic inequalities, city size, and the emotions caused by soccer events.Before conducting this empirical analysis, we first review the theoretical and empirical literature on urban crime determinants. An important conclusion is that economic incentives that lead individuals to commit crime are influenced by the location pattern of criminals and victims. Building on these considerations, we perform three empirical analyses at different geographic levels.First, we explore the effect of income inequality on victimization in Ecuador, using data at the individual level thanks to the Ecuadorian Victimization survey. The main result is that, contrary to the predictions, the Gini coefficient has a negative effect on victimization by robbery. This result could be related to a high residential segregation or a high social control against crime. In addition, we provide evidence for an increasing and concave relationship between the income level of victims and the probability of victimization by vehicle theft, which first increases with a monthly household income up to $5,100, and then falls.Second, we test the existence of an urban crime premium (higher crime in urban areas) in Ecuador, at the parish level. Our main result is that population exerts a non-linear influence on the homicide rate. The probability that a homicide happens is higher in larger parishes. However, the homicide rate decreases with population in parishes with positive homicides. By contrast, the results regarding property crimes confirm that the level of population increases the number of pecuniary crimes per inhabitant.Third, we explore the effect of soccer matches on the number of homicides and property crimes in 16 cantons of Ecuador, at the intra-city level. The aim is to test whether soccer matches alter the temporal and spatial patterns of crime, and the role of emotions (frustration and euphoria) resulting from soccer matches on crime. Results reveal that the number of homicides increases by 0.18% before the match whereas the number of property crimes increases by 12% after the match, near the stadium. Soccer matches also cause spatial spillovers of crime in locations distant from stadiums. On game days, the number of property crimes falls by 0.88% before the match and the number of homicides falls by 0.05% during the match, in these distant locations. After the game, the homicides and property crimes significantly increase in locations distant from stadiums. Finally, the effect of emotions on homicides or property crimes is not significant at the aggregate level but it is significant regarding homicides that occur in the capital of Ecuador, Quito

This thesis consists of a socio-psychological study of Greek European identity within the context of the Greek debt/Eurozone crisis. Drawing insights from Social Representations Theory (SRT) and Social Identity Theory (SIT), it approaches the question of identity in a dual manner, as are presentation and a psychological experience. The motivation of the research is enacted through the questioning of whether economic crises can provoke crises of collective identities. Its contribution is both theoretical and empirical. The thesis argues that although the term ‘identity crisis’ is a frequently used one, especially in conditions of post-modernity, an analytical elucidation of the varied destabilising dynamics behind potential ‘identity crises’ is unclear within existing literature. Furthermore, it is postulated that as useful and enlightening a social psychological approach may be for the study of identities, and although SIT’s focus on identity threats as destabilising for group self-esteem can help us understand identity dynamics, the discipline still lacks a more systematic analytical framework of identity destabilisations. The thesis develops an elaborate typology and conceptualisation of identity destabilisations and operationalises it for the study of Greek European identity through a triangulated single case study research design, combining a variety of data sources, such as historiographical data, media texts, expert and elite interviews, and interviews with non-expert citizens. The typology includes the destabilisations of identity conflict,identity devaluation, identity overvaluation and identity deficit. The results of the study indicate that the public discourse of the debt/Eurozone crisis has been abundant in representations of all such identity destabilisations. The interviews with Greek experts and elites, called in this study ‘ideational leaders’, and with non-expert citizens, designate that the most prevalent forms of identity destabilisation, both at the level of representation and of psychological experience in Greek society are those of identity conflict and identity devaluation. The results show a distinct public preoccupation with ideas, such as national self-reflection and collective responsibility. The representations made by expert and non-expert citizens approximate each other quite closely, while comparisons across the data sources and across time bring to the fore continuities of narratives and identity representations, which are explained within SRT’s assumption of anchoring as a return to previously established knowledge for the comprehension of new phenomena, as well as within the constraints faced by discursive actors in their attempts to construct new realities. It is concluded that a new narrative is necessitated for Greek European identity.

Orientador: Jesus José Ranieri
Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Filosofia e Ciências Humanas
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Resumo: O presente trabalho centra-se em três pontos nodais. Em primeiro lugar, busca sinalizar os elementos mais gerais que caracterizam a crise estrutural do capital juntamente com o emblema da ?pós-modernidade', que emerge já em fins da década de 60 e início da década de 70 do século XX - adentrando o século XXI. A partir desse quadro histórico, e aqui penetramos no segundo ponto, visualiza-se situar a contribuição que a teoria social do filósofo alemão Jürgen Habermas dá para o debate contemporâneo acerca da questão do projeto da modernidade - a emancipação humana. Isso nos obriga a demonstrar como se movimenta sua crítica ao discurso filosófico da modernidade. Como ponto de confluência indissociável dos dois anteriores, o terceiro momento deste trabalho procura relacionar criticamente esta teoria social com o contexto histórico da crise estrutural do capital. Em outras palavras, busca-se tencionar o seu constructo filosófico-social como uma teoria da crítica emancipatória no contexto de crise estrutural do capital
Abstract: This work focus on three main points. First of all, it seeks to point the most relevant elements that characterize the structural crisis of capital along with the emblem of 'postmodernity', which emerges in the late 60th and early 70s of the 20th century - entering the 21st century. From this historical framework, here we enter the second point, our goal is to situate the contribution that social theory of the German philosopher Jürgen Habermas gives to the contemporary debate on the issue of modernity - human emancipation. This requires us to demonstrate how moves his criticism of the philosophical discourse of modernity. As a point of indissociable confluence from the two previous, the third point, seeks to critically relate this social theory with the historical context of structural crisis of capital
Mestrado
Sociologia
Mestre em Sociologia

Orientador: Hector Benoit
Tese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Filosofia e Ciencias Humanas
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Resumo: o conceito de crise é inseparável do conceito de capital e o desenvolvimento deste último desenvolve simultaneamenteo conceito do primeiro.Nosso trabalho pretende mostrar como o conceito de crise do capital pode ser encontrado em O Capital de Marx simultaneamente ao conceito de capital. É possível encontrar uma teoria coerente de Marx sobre as crises em O Capital, uma teoria dialética que parta da análise das possibilidades mais gerais e abstratas da crise até sua conversão em realidade, acompanhando o processo de exposição global do conceito de capital no conjunto dos três livros que compõem esta obra. Este movimento que vai da possibilidade formal e abstrata da crise até sua realidade concreta é o mesmo movimento que inicia com a análise da mercadoria e do dinheiro no Livro Primeiro até a análise das categorias mais determinadase concretas como lucro e taxa de lucro do Livro Terceiro
Abstract: The concept of crisis is inseparable from the concept of capital and the development of the latter develops simultaneously the concept of the first. Our work purports to show how the concept of crisis of capital can be viewed simultaneously with the concept of capital in Marx's The Capital. It is possible to find a coherent theory in Marx about the crises in The Capital, a dialectical theory beginning fromthe analysis of the more abstract and general possibilities of crisis up to its convertion into reality, following the process of global exposition of the concept of capital in the whole of the three books of that work. The movement which comes from the formal and abstract possibility of crisis up to its concrete reality is the same movement which begins with both the commodities and the money analysis in the First Book and ends with the analysis of the more determined and concrete categories like profit and profit rate in the Third Book
Doutorado
Doutor em Filosofia

This master's thesis examines a criminal response to the sharp increase in the real gold price between the years 1998 and 2012. By using a regression analysis, I show that an increase in the real gold price does not have a significant impact on the number of golden crimes but the gold price significantly influences the stolen amount of gold with the elasticity of 2.2. In addition, an increase of lagged real wage and non-lagged real wage, and the number of prisoners significantly decreases golden crime whereas increased unemployment has a negative impact. Moreover, I find that in all types of a regression analysis (daily, monthly and quarterly) higher temperature and also lower cloudiness (as proxies for the good weather) significantly increase the golden crime rate. The daily model also revealed that during weekends and holidays there is significantly and markedly lower crime.

Esta tese estuda os fundamentos da crise econômica argentina, irrompida em 2001. A Argentina, no contexto latino-americano, de acordo com a literatura históricoeconômica, apresenta uma \"regressão econômica secular\"; processo esse que se intensificou desde parte da década de 1970, quando o país viveu sob uma Ditadura militar. Em meados da década seguinte, sob uma crise econômica aguda, com hiperinflação, e frente a uma das maiores dívidas externas do mundo, os governos argentinos democráticos tentariam algumas iniciativas de estabilização dos preços, as quais resultariam no Plano de Convertibilidade, em 1991. Nessa ocasião, o país adotou a paridade cambial de sua moeda, em identidade com o dólar estadunidense. A Argentina apresentaria fortes taxas de crescimento do PIB nos primeiros anos do Plano, enquanto privatizava suas empresas públicas, desregulava seu mercado de trabalho e abria sua economia incondicionalmente ao capital externo. O FMI e o Banco Mundial incentivaram abertamente o Plano de Convertibilidade e as medidas de política econômica da Argentina, apresentando-a como exemplo aos demais países por uma década. Em 2001, como resultado das políticas adotadas, a Argentina sofreu uma crise econômica ainda mais intensa do que as anteriores, com uma retração acumulada de mais de 16% do PIB em um intervalo de um ano, com corrida bancária e crise social. De exemplo de política econômica do FMI, a Argentina passou à moratória de sua dívida externa, que cresceu exponencialmente durante o período. A crise argentina seria o produto da conjunção de três processos histórico-econômicos, dados entre o Pós-guerra e o final do século XX, a saber: (I) a falência do modelo de desenvolvimento autônomo a partir da substituição de importações, pelo impacto de políticas econômicas contrárias aos interesses nacionais argentinos, desde a imposição da Ditadura Militar de 1976 - 1983; (II) o atrelamento da política econômica argentina ao chamado \"Consenso de Washington\" ao longo da década de 1980, culminando com o governo Menem, de orientação neoliberal; e (III) uma crise do capitalismo ocorrida no final da década de 1990, cujos impactos se fizeram sentir de maneira mais intensa naqueles países subdesenvolvidos, que empreenderam políticas ultra-liberalizantes em âmbito interno. A desarticulação das estratégias de crescimento autônomo, a abertura desmedida ao capital internacional e a renúncia à utilização de instrumentos de política econômica, da parte de sucessivos governos argentinos, sempre sob a aprovação do Fundo Monetário Internacional, teriam como resultado o referido colapso da Argentina, em 2001.
This thesis studies the foundations of the 2001 economic crisis in Argentina. In the Latin America economic context, and in economic history literature, Argentina is shown as an \"secular regression\" case. This process was enhanced during the Military period (1976 - 1982). During the 1980\'s, under an economic crisis, with a high inflationary process, and presenting one of the highest external debts of the world, the Argentine government tried some stabilization plans. The most important one it was the Convertibility Plan, in 1991. Then Argentina adopted the currency board exchange system, which considered by means of law as an equality of one peso to one U.S. dollar. Argentina would have strong economic growth rates in the first years of the Plan, as her government made the privatization of her public enterprises, promoted the liberalization of her labor market, and opened unconditionally her economy to the foreign capital. The IMF and the World Bank had widely supported the Convertibility Plan and Argentina\'s economic policies, showing the country as an example of good economic policies for over a decade. In 2001, as a result of that economic policies, Argentina entered on a huge economic crisis, with a retraction of more than 16% of her GDP in a single year. The financial system collapsed. The unemployment and the poverty of many deranged on social chaos. From \"first class IMF\'s student\" Argentina went on to the default of her debt with the Fund. This argentine 2001 crisis was the result of the sum of three economic historical processes: (I) the bankruptcy of the imports-substitution development model, as a result of anti-national economic policies applied in Argentina since the last Military period (1976-1983); (II) the submission of Argentina\'s economic policies to the Washington Consensus during the 1980\'s and 1990\'s; and (III) a crisis of capitalism which occurred on the end of the XXth century, whose effects were the most intense on the underdeveloped countries which applied the Washington Consensus policies. The elimination of independent economic development strategies, the excessive liberalization, and the abandonment of sovereign economic policies by successive Argentine governments, always under the support of the International Monetary Fund, had, as a result, the economic collapse of Argentina in 2001.

Orientadores: Daniela Magalhães Prates, Rogério Pereira de Andrade
Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia
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Resumo: A crise econômica que atingiu o Japão durante os anos 1990 interrompeu uma trajetória de quarenta anos de forte crescimento, que conduziu o país de um cenário destruído pela guerra à posição de segunda maior economia do mundo nos anos 1960. O objetivo desta dissertação é analisar os determinantes e consequências dessa crise, utilizando-se como referencial teórico a Hipótese da Instabilidade Financeira desenvolvida por Hyman Minsky. Procura-se argumentar que a forma de atuação dos principais agentes econômicos japoneses (empresas, bancos e famílias) após as mudanças verificadas nos contextos doméstico e externo nos anos 1970 e 1980, cuja interação culminou na crise, pode ser compreendida a partir da teoria minskyana, embora sejam necessárias algumas adaptações para sua aplicação a este caso específico Os argumentos estão organizados da seguinte forma. No primeiro capítulo, apresenta-se a perspectiva teórica utilizada, com base na contribuição original de Minsky e nas análises dessa contribuição realizadas por outros autores pós-keynesianos. No segundo capítulo, descreve-se as principais características do arranjo institucional liderado pelo Estado japonês para estimular o investimento e recuperar a economia do país após a segunda guerra mundial, implantado entre 1950 e o primeiro choque do petróleo em 1973. No terceiro capítulo, analisa-se a desestruturação desse arranjo durante os anos 1970 e 1980, mostrando seus reflexos sobre o comportamento dos agentes e o processo de formação da bolha especulativa no final da década de 1980. Apresenta-se ainda os impactos da desaceleração dos preços dos principais ativos no desempenho da economia japonesa ao longo dos anos 1990, bem como as medidas implementadas pelas autoridades econômicas com o intuito de estimular sua recuperação
Abstract: The economic crisis that stroke Japan during the 1990s broke the growth trajectory that had started forty years earlier and transformed a country destroyed by the Second World War into the second biggest economy in the planet in the 1960s. This paper analyses the causes and consequences of this crisis, using Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis. It argues that the behavior of the main economic agents (enterprises, banks and families) after the changes in the world and domestic economies occurred in the 1970s and 1980s, whose interaction led to the crisis, can be understood under the Minskyan theory, with a few adaptations to this specific case. The paper is separated into three chapters: in the first chapter, it presents the main aspects of Minsky's theory used in the analysis with the contributions of other post-Keynesian authors. In the second chapter, it describes the institutional arrangement commanded by the Japan State that stimulated the economy's recovery between the 1950s and the first oil shock in 1973. In the third chapter, it analyzes how this arrangement was broken during the 1970s and the 1980s, showing the reflexes of this process in the agents' behavior and the formation of the economic bubble in the end of the decade. It also presents the impacts of the deceleration of the asset's prices in the Japanese economy in the 1990s and the actions taken by the economic authorities looking to stimulate the recovery
Mestrado
Teoria Economica
Mestre em Ciências Econômicas

Now a day, the World has been experiencing the worst economic crisis since 1929, and this is considered as the “perfect storm”. In addition, the businesses and organizations are trying to be safe under this context. Based on Akerman cycle approach, this research focus on an organization case study that is trying to respond to an economic crisis it has been experiencing since 2009. Also, this investigation identifies how some of the businesses’ intangible assets are becoming relevant and they are trying to help during this situation, particularly right after the enterprise experienced some years of expansion and growth. The intangible assets considered are included in the intellectual capital taxonomy of the organization and also are grouped in the human, structural and relational capital sets. Moreover, there is a specific monitor of one of the intangible assets and it is more related to the sales quotation rat
Le monde connaît aujourd’hui la plus grande crise depuis 1929, considérée par les chercheurs comme une «tempête parfaite». Dans ce contexte, les entreprises tentent de s’en sortir en cherchant des solutions et des alternatives possibles. Cette recherche se focalise sur l’étude du cas d’une grande entreprise qui tente de réagir face à la crise économique qu’elle subit depuis 2009. En se basant sur l’approche des cycles économiques d’ Akerman, cette recherche identifie la manière dontcertains actifs immatériels de l’entreprise deviennent importants en constituant des leviers capables d’apporter de l’aide dans une situation de crise, en particulier, lorsque l’entreprise a connu des années de croissance et de développement auparavant. Les actifs immatériels que nous considérons font partie du capital intellectuel de l’entreprise. Nous entendons par capital intellectuel, le capital humain, structurel et relationnel de l’entreprise. Il y a un pilotage spécifique de l'un des actifs immatériels, lié au taux de cotation des ventes

The aim of this work is to determine the best response of investment to shocks and crisis situations. The problems that arise during crises vary depending on each country's peculiarities. However, there are some things that are common in almost all situations. In very many cases, we find that from the household level where children are pulled out of school and put to work to support family income to the government decision on education funding, one thing is common - investment tends to be cut. In standard optimal growth models consumption and investment generally turn out to be a fixed fraction of output. When a crisis occurs, this fixed fraction of a lower output means a lower level of investment. In an optimal growth framework with Cobb-Douglas production function and logarithmic utility function, I present a model that adds a feature called 'the gap' that describe the domestic situation. Developing countries are often plagued by sociopolitical and economic factors that constrain their productivity and/or capacity utilisation. When weakened in this way, an exogenous shock that causes a loss of capital could have devastating effects. In such a situation depreciation could conceivable exceed its natural rate and it is this difference between the actual rate experienced and the natural rate that I call 'the gap'. I argue that when 'the gap' exists, there are additional benefits to be reaped from investment. The model I present demonstrates that under certain conditions, rather than investing a fixed fraction, the rate of investment should actually increase such that investment is maintained at itspre-crisis level. This is opti~al and desirable because in the long run, the welfare path of economies that follow this strategy is superior. This result is empirically tested using a simple regression model. First, I determine the investment strategy followed by a sample of countries worst hit by the debt crisis of the mid-eighties, then I examine the income and consumption paths. The results show that the majority of the sample countries followed the implied optimal strategy, and these countries followed a superior income and welfare path in the post-crisis years. This result therefore lends support to the model presented, and also raises an important question. Why is it that countries that followed the optimal path only seem to be marginally better off than those that did not? To answer this question, I examine the issue of financing the investment decision. For many countries in crisis, the availability of credit was a crucial factor. Many faced the dilemma of needing funds, yet being unable to attract it because creditors considered them too risky. In an extended version of the basic model, I show that more debt was not optimal for funding the investment choice. Although following the optimal path would result in higher output, as long as funding was through debt, consumption and welfare would only be marginally better because of the future burden of debt service. On the other hand, selffinancing would require severe cuts in consumption that may not be justifiable in terms of long run gains. The solution - aid and financial support for export oriented adjustment programs should be given by international financial organisations to countries that choose to follow the optimal investment strategy. This would preserve and improve the qualityof such organisations' investment, and ensure an even better welfare path for debtor countries in the long run

Orientador: Nelson Prado Alves Pinto
Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia
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Resumo: O objetivo deste estudo é o de revisar as principais interpretações de inspiração marxista da Grande Recessão (2007-2009) e identificar as linhas centrais do debate que se trava em torno das suas origens e características fundamentais. Não tive, naturalmente, a pretensão de realizar um exame exaustivo da crescente literatura sobre o tema. Optei, ao invés disso, por selecionar aqueles estudos que me pareceram representativos das correntes teóricas mais importantes no interior do marxismo contemporâneo e, a partir disso, avaliar as suas respectivas posições no que diz respeito à crise recente. A fim de cumprir o objetivo proposto, o capítulo primeiro estabelece os principais conceitos e a metodologia de trabalho empregados ao longo deste estudo. Apresenta-se uma definição de crise, a distinção entre causa última e causa imediata e, por fim, o corte adotado para a organização da literatura. Foi possível demonstrar, desse modo, a existência de duas grandes abordagens no universo teórico marxista no que se refere aos determinantes últimos da crise recente: A - de um lado, aqueles que atribuem a turbulência à dinâmica de uma fase particular do capitalismo, à forma política/econômica/institucional específica assumida pelo sistema capitalista ao longo das últimas décadas, em suma, ao que se convencionou denominar, em diversos trabalhos, neoliberalismo; B - de outro, aqueles que veem a crise recente como uma manifestação própria da dinâmica capitalista em geral - e não do modo particular que esta supostamente apresenta. No primeiro grupo, Dúmenil, Lévy, Saad-Filho e Kotz, cujos trabalhos foram examinados no capítulo segundo, estão entre seus principais expoentes. Conforme se pôde observar, o argumento daqueles que defendem essa perspectiva centra-se, principalmente, na relação de poder entre as classes que compõem o capitalismo, sobretudo a capitalista e a trabalhadora, e no reflexo da configuração institucional formada a partir desta sobre a economia, particularmente sobre o comportamento do setor financeiro e a distribuição de renda. Por outro lado, segundo as análises empreendidas pelos integrantes do segundo grupo, do qual os adeptos da chamada Interpretação do Sistema Único Temporal da teoria do valor de Marx são os principais representantes, a argumentação baseia-se, sobretudo, no movimento traçado pela taxa de lucro e a acumulação de capital. Segundo demonstra o capítulo terceiro, o declínio da taxa de lucro em virtude da elevação da composição orgânica do capital é a hipótese básica para a explicação da Grande Recessão nessa abordagem
Abstract: The aim of this study is to review the main marxist interpretations of the Great Recession (2007-2009) and identify the main lines of the debate on its origins and fundamental characteristics. I did not intend to do a thorough examination of the growing literature on the subject. I opted, instead, to select those studies that seemed representative of the most important theoretical approaches in the contemporary marxism and then evaluate their respective positions with regard to the recent crisis. In order to achieve the proposed objective, the first chapter sets out the key concepts and methodology used throughout this study. It presents a definition of crisis, the distinction between the ultimate and immediate cause and, finally, the approach adopted to organize the literature. It was possible to demonstrate thereby the presence of two major approaches in the theoretical marxist universe with regard to determining the recent crisis: A - on the one hand, those who attribute the turbulence to the dynamics of a particular phase of capitalism, the specific political/economic/institutional form assumed by the capitalist system over the past decades; in short, to what may be called neoliberalism; B - on the other, those who see the recent crisis as a manifestation of general capitalist dynamics itself - and not the particular form that supposedly assume. In the first group, Dumenil, Levy, Saad-Filho and Kotz, whose works are examined in chapter II, are among its main exponents. As seen above, the argument of those who advocate this perspective focuses mainly on the power relationship between classes that constitute capitalism, especially the capitalist and worker, and the reflection of the institutional setting from that upon the economy, particularly on the behavior of the financial sector and income distribution. By contrast, according to the analyzes undertaken by members of the second group, which the supporters of the so-called Temporal Single System Interpretation of Marx's value theory are the main representatives, the argument is based mainly on the movement of the rate of profit and capital accumulation. As the third chapter demonstrates, the declining rate of profit because of the increasing organic composition of capital is the basic hypothesis to explain the Great Recession in this approach
Mestrado
Ciências Economicas
Mestre em Ciências Econômicas

La ciudad es el resultado de la confluencia entre firmas y trabajadores e, implícitamente, una relación entre las capacidades productivas de las firmas y la productividad de las áreas en donde están localizadas. Además, la localización residencial de los trabajadores representa las ventajas y desventajas en el mercado laboral debido a que deben asumir los costos de desplazamiento. Bogotá y Cali, las ciudades que son objeto de estudio en esta tesis doctoral, son usadas para abordar tres temas cruciales que afectan a las ciudades en los países en desarrollo: el desempleo, la informalidad y el crimen. Bogotá, como la mayoría de las grandes ciudades en América Latina, ha experimentado problemas debido al descontrolado crecimiento urbano y la segregación espacial desde 1950. Este crecimiento descontrolado ha resultado en una expansión urbana que ha incrementado la distancia entre las viviendas de los trabajadores y las áreas donde se generan oportunidades de empleo. En el Capítulo 1 estimamos el efecto del acceso al empleo en la probabilidad de ser empleado. Para esto usamos microdatos de encuestas de hogares e información de localización de empleos a nivel de Census Tract. Estimamos ecuaciones de probabilidad de empleo para analizar la desconexión entre los trabajadores y las oportunidades de empleo controlando por características de los trabajadores. Además, usamos la metodología de variables instrumentales para abordar el problema de la endogeneidad. El principal resultado es que el acceso al empleo tiene un efecto positivo y significativo en la probabilidad de que el trabajador se encuentre empleado. La evidencia empírica con respecto a temas de aglomeración y localización espacial tiene que ver con empresas formales. La literatura ha mencionado marginalmente lo que sucede con las firmas informales. En el Capítulo 2 estimamos el efecto de la aglomeración espacial en el porcentaje de firmas informales a nivel de barrio. Las firmas informales son aquellas que producen bienes y servicios legales, pero que no cumplen con la regulación oficial. Este tema es relevante porque, al igual que en otros países en desarrollo, el sector informal en Colombia emplea más del 50% de la mano de obra. En este estudio encontramos que un incremento de una desviación estándar en los niveles de aglomeración espacial el porcentaje de firmas informales se reduce en 16%. Estos resultados son consistentes con la idea de que las firmas informales se benefician menos de las economías de aglomeración debido a que las restricciones legales bloquean su relación con firmas formales. Latinoamérica domina la lista de las ciudades más violentas del mundo. La literatura señala que las altas tasas de crimen representan una pérdida significativa de bienestar. Además, las tasas de crimen no se distribuyen de manera homogénea en el área urbana. En respuesta a los riesgos que impone el crimen, las personas tienen dos opciones: votar por políticas contra el crimen o moverse a otros barrios. En 2015, la ciudad con más homicidios fue Caracas (Venezuela) con 120 por cada 100,000 personas y la ciudad de Cali (Colombia) registró 65. Sabemos que el crimen tiene un efecto en el mercado de la vivienda, por lo tanto, el objetivo del Capítulo 3 es estimar la relación entre los precios de las viviendas y las tasas de homicidio en Cali. Encontramos que un incremento de 10% en las tasas de homicidio están relacionadas con una disminución entre el 2% y el 2.5% en los precios de las viviendas.
A city is a confluence between firms and workers and, implicitly, a relationship between the productive capacities of firms and the productivity of the areas in which they are located. Moreover, the residence location of workers represents advantageous or disadvantageous opportunities in the labour market because they have to assume commuting costs. Bogotá and Cali, the urban areas that we shall study in this thesis, are used to raise the crucial concerns of cities in developing countries. In the three empirical studies that make up this thesis, the central character is the city, but the main subjects are unemployment, informality and crime. Bogotá, like the majority of large Latin American cities, has experienced urban problems due to the uncontrolled growth of peripheral neighbourhoods and the socio-spatial segregation process that began in the 1950s. The rapid uncontrolled urbanization of the city has resulted in severe urban sprawl and this phenomenon has increased the distance between workers and job opportunities. In Chapter 1 we estimate the effect of job accessibility on the probability of being employed. Data used at individual level come from household surveys, while information about job location at census tract level comes from the Urban Planning Office. We estimate employment probability equations to analyse the disconnection between workers and job opportunities including controls at individual level. Moreover, the paper focuses on the treatment of the location endogeneity problem using instrumental variables. The main result is that job accessibility has a significant positive effect on the probability of being employed. Most of the empirical findings on spatial agglomeration and localization concern firms in the formal sector, and the literature say little about the effect of agglomeration on the localization of informal firms. In Chapter 2 we estimate the effect of agglomeration on the local share of informal firms that produce legal goods but do not comply with official regulations. This issue is relevant because, like other developing countries, the informal sector in Colombia employs more than 50% of the workforce. Our results demonstrate that one standard deviation increase in agglomeration reduces the local share of informal firms by 16%. Our results are consistent with the idea that informal firms benefit less from agglomeration because of legal restrictions that block the relationship with formal firms. The literature points out that high crime rates represent a significant welfare loss, reducing expected lifespan and increasing uncertainty about the future. However, crime rates are not homogeneously distributed within an urban area. This characteristic has a strong association with neighbourhood quality. In response to crime risk, residents generally have two options: they can vote for anti-crime policies or vote with their feet. In Chapter 3 we analyse this subject. Indeed, Latin America dominates the list of the world’s most violent cities. In 2015, Cali (Colombia) registered 65 homicides per 100,000 people in a ranking headed by Caracas (Venezuela) with 120. The literature points out that the local response to crime will be observed in the housing market. The objective of the analysis is to estimate the relationship between housing prices and homicide rates in Cali. We found that a 10% increase in the homicide rate is related with a decrease of between 2% and 2.5% in housing prices.

O presente trabalho tem por objetivo testar a hipótese levantada por Reinhart e Rogoff acerca da relação entre dívida pública e crescimento econômico. Para isso utilizamos um modelo empírico baseado no modelo teórico de crescimento neoclássico acrescido de algumas variáveis econômicas comprovadamente relevantes, utilizando dados em painel numa amostra com 86 países no período de 1983 até 2013. Encontramos evidências que confirmam em parte a hipótese levantada por Reinhart e Rogoff, isto é, a dívida pública apresentou uma relação negativa com o crescimento econômico, no entanto não fomos capazes de encontrar um threshold onde a magnitude de tal efeito fosse aumentada.

Thesis advisor: Fabio Ghironi
This thesis includes two essays that analyze some features of the past financial crises. In the first chapter I study the possible reasons why investors reduced their holdings of foreign equities, and, at the same time, they increased their holdings of short-term government bonds, during the 2007 financial crisis that first hit the U.S. economy and soon became a world crisis. More precisely I analyze how the increases in uncertainty during the crisis affected capital flows. I use a two country DSGE model and I assume that there is trade in both goods and financial assets. I assume that each country is allowed to issue equities and government bonds, and I assume that each economy is hit by three types of shocks: Preference, productivity and government spending shocks. I proxy the increase in uncertainty with the introduction of uncertainty shocks, i.e. I allow the variances of the shocks to be time-varying. My findings show that uncertainty is a source of portfolio-dynamics that can contribute to explain, together with the other sources already identified in the literature, deviations of the portfolio from its steady-state. Investors choose their portfolio with the goal to smooth consumption. Therefore they want to hold assets with returns that display a negative covariance with consumption. When uncertainty shocks hit, the way in which the real variables of the model covary with asset returns changes. As a consequence, agents need to re-adjust their portfolios until when the shock has disappeared. I also show under which conditions it is rational for investors to increase their holdings of foreign government bonds and, at the same time, reduce their holdings of foreign equity, in response to an increase in global uncertainty. My findings show that the response of the portfolio to an increase in uncertainty crucially depends on the source of uncertainty. If uncertainty comes from aggregate demand, it is optimal for agents to increase their holdings of foreign bonds and reduce their holdings of foreign equity. If instead the source of uncertainty is aggregate supply, agents find it optimal to increase their holdings of foreign equity and reduce their holdings of foreign bonds. This finding suggests that the movements of capital that took place during the crisis are compatible with an increase in uncertainty coming from aggregate demand. This result is supported by those theories that identify the collapse in demand as the main cause of the slump experienced by the U.S. and by many other economies during the crisis. In the second chapter I study the currency denomination of the debt in emerging countries. Empirical studies have shown that emerging countries are often characterized by the presence of a high share of foreign currency denominated debt. As the debt crises of the 1990s show, the presence of foreign currency debt can be risky because, beyond creating a mismatch in the domestic firms' balance sheets, it also constraints the traditional domestic policy instruments in dealing with home and foreign economic shocks. The reasons why such risky forms of international finance arise in the first place remain an open question. If foreign debt is so dangerous-as it is-it may be worth trying to give a micro-foundation to its emergence. Such a high share of foreign currency debt should be at least in part justified by the presence of some private benefits for the agents that choose this form of finance. The goal of this chapter is to rationalize the choice to borrow in dollars rather than in domestic currency on the international markets. In order to do so, I study how informational asymmetries and heterogeneous expectations can affect the choice of a borrower to expose herself to a currency risk. Furthermore I look at the policy implications of my findings to understand which policies could reduce the incentive of agents to dollarize. My model is a portfolio choice model with asymmetric information that analyzes how agents choose the currency denomination of their debt. The main findings of my model show that when domestic agents have a high informational advantage and/or there is a low level of transparency on international markets, an increase in the degree of dollarization might be observed, if the fundamentals are relatively strong. Alternatively, if there is endogeneity between the exchange rate policy implemented by the monetary authority and domestic agents' decisions, a certain degree of complementarity in borrowers' choices may arise, thus creating a phenomenon of {it moral hazard}. If domestic agents know that a high share of dollar debt in the economy makes the exchange rate more rigid, they may want to coordinate on the equilibrium where all the corporate debt in the economy is denominated in the same currency, even when the fundamentals of the economy are relatively weak. These results have interesting policy implications. A benevolent central bank that strongly bases her policy on the degree of dollarization in the economy, can generate a coordination mechanism among the domestic borrowers that results in a risky degree of dollarization. The solution would be to ex-ante choose a central banker with a strong preference for a flexible exchange rate. My findings also show the importance of transparency. Transparency does not necessarily coincide with public information. My model actually shows that the precision of private sources of information determines the degree of dollarization. If international markets could have access to some sources of private information, they would be more willing to lend in pesos, when the fundamentals are relatively strong. As a consequence the economy would not experience high levels of dollarization and would be better protected against future negative shocks
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2011
Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Economics

Mestrado em Contabilidade, Fiscalidade e Finanças Empresariais
O objectivo deste trabalho é estudar o fenómeno de globalização e a sua relação íntima com as crises que se geram. Neste caso específico, pretende-se estudar a evolução do fenómeno, que é a globalização e a sua relação intrínseca com a crise global mais recente (2007). A metodologia empregue integra consultas de artigos científicos, livros, jornais, revistas, etc, que permitam efectuar o estudo referido. A ausência de regulação e supervisão, por parte de entidades supranacionais e reguladoras potenciou, de forma decisiva, a rápida evolução da crise. Por fim, a preocupação necessária com o meio ambiente, num contexto de crise não é devidamente relevada, devido às pressões por parte dos diversos países (um acordo global é difícil de alcançar). Porém, um dos aspectos mais importantes a sublinhar perante a crise, é o facto de crises financeiras graves não serem arcaicas e não se encontrarem só na história passada. Esta situação reforça a necessidade de existência de uma regulação e supervisão assertiva, que acompanhe as evoluções dos mercados de forma a minimizar as probabilidades de práticas engenharia e criatividade financeira nefastas, protegendo a humanidade de crises semelhantes, no futuro. Finalmente importa acrescentar que a duração, profundidade e implicações desta crise ainda não são passíveis de comentar, pelo simples facto de ainda não se ter saído da mesma.
The objective of this work is the study of the phenomena of globalization and its intimate relation with the crisis which are generated. In this specific case, the evolution of the phenomena of globalization and its inherent relation with the most recent global crisis will be studied (2007). The methodology used includes consultation of scientific articles, books, newspapers, magazines, etc, which help research the above-mentioned topic. The lack of regulation and supervision by supranational and regulating entities was crucial to give rise to the rapid evolution of the crisis. Finally, the necessary concern with the environment, in a context of crisis is not focused enough due to pressure from various countries (it's difficult to reach a global compromise). However, one of the most important aspects to underline about the crisis is the fact that financial crisis are not archaic and they did not happen only in the past. This situation reinforces the need of regulation and assertive supervision which follow the evolution of the markets in order to minimize the chances of baleful experiences of financial engineering and creativity, and in order to protect the humanity from similar crisis in the future. Finally, one should add that the duration, depth and implications of this crisis cannot be commented, because it hasn't been solved yet.

Dissertação apresentada à Universidade Fernando Pessoa como parte dos requisitos para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Criminologia
A Criminalidade Económica, também muitas vezes referenciada como Crimes de Colarinho Branco centra-se numa temática de importante relevância no contexto social atual. Cada vez mais, se verifica a evolução de uma sociedade consumista, onde lucros e o ganho financeiro e monetário dos indivíduos começa a demonstrar um papel central na sua vivência e experiência do dia-a-dia. Não tão notados encontram-se crimes económicos mais pequenos, como é o caso de burla a título individual e não a título organizacional. Sendo assim, este estudo pretende abordar a temática das burlas tendo como principal alvo os seus ofensores. Pretende-se aprofundar o conhecimento relativamente aos mesmos, procurando criar uma tipologia que os possa diferenciar e caraterizar. Este estudo revelou a existência de uma tipologia ao nível do “modus operandi” destes ofensores, dando origem aos ofensores designados por ofensores oportunistas e ofensores predadores, conforme as suas caraterísticas representativas. Tornou possível ainda uma comparação entre os diferentes estudos e informações empíricas já existentes relativamente à grande Criminalidade Económica, procedendo-se a conclusões que distanciam e aproximam os ofensores cujas vítimas são na maioria indivíduos e ofensores cujas vítimas são na sua maioria corporações e organizações. Este estudo procurou ainda tentar relacionar algumas caraterísticas pessoais relativamente ao seu meio social, com caraterísticas encontradas em ofensores de Crimes de Colarinho Branco.
The economic crimes, many times referred as White Collar Crimes, develop a major role in the actual social concept. A social evolution through consumerism has been noted leading individuals to embrace profit and personal wealth as a priority. Nevertheless few attention has been drawn to smaller types of economics crimes like low profile scams. This study intents to increase knowledge about the offenders responsible for this type of crime. It also thrives to feature the common main characteristics and differences between these types of offenders through the development of a typology. It has been shown in this paper that the offenders can be grouped according to their modus operandi which led to the upbringing of the concept related to two types of offenders: the opportunistic offender and the predator offender. This study also enabled a comparison between the information acquired from the literature and the data acquired from this investigation. Thus it was possible to relate some of the personal characteristics of the offenders responsible for scams with the characteristics of the White Collar Crime offenders.

The importance of financial markets in a globalised economy cannot be overstated. An obvious example is the 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers, the consequences of which were not just confined to the United States but spread to almost all developed economies in the world. On a daily basis movement in the world's stock, bond, commodity and currency markets can be affected by as diverse factors as a revision to the inflation rate in China, an unexpected European Union meeting on the Euro or the announcement of company earnings in the U.S. The link between financial markets and the real economy, the increased volatility in financial markets, and the repercussions of financial crises are issues of great interest to economic agents (policymakers, firms, households) around the world. However, they are of even greater significance to developing nations, as they try to raise their living standards. The research presented in this thesis aims to inform the discussion on the pertinence of financial development for economic growth. Following a brief introduction, Chapter 2 sets the scene by reviewing the neo- classical growth models and endogenous growth theory. The rationale for focusing v - on the role of financial development is discussed next followed by all evaluation of the empirical evidence. Chapter 3 concentrates on the measurement of financial de- velopment. Existing measures are examined and a new measure is introduced using the latest available data for the largest possible number of economies. The principal components methodology, which reduces the dimensionality of the data, is used for the construction of this new measure. This is then used to revisit the empirical relationship between financial development and growth in Chapter 4. The method- ology employed is that of least squares dummy variables (LSDV) estimation, and the issue of potential endogeneity is explored through the use of two-stage ordinary least squares (OLS) and generalised method of moments (GMM). Chapter 5 undertakes a large sample analysis to address the relationship between financial development, and the likelihood of financial crises and chapter 6 summaries the findings from this work and discusses limitations and possible extensions. VI.

Thesis (Ph.D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics, 2002.
Includes bibliographical references.
Countries that have pursued distortionary macroeconomic policies, including high inflation, large budget deficits and misaligned exchange rates, appear to have suffered bigger exchange rate crises, more macroeconomic volatility and also grown more slowly during the postwar period. Does this reflect the causal effect of these macroeconomic policies on economic outcomes? One reason to suspect that the answer may be no is that countries pursuing poor macroeconomic policies also have weak "institutions," including political institutions that do not constrain politicians and political elites, ineffective enforcement of property rights for investors, widespread corruption, and a high degree of political instability. Two papers in this thesis document that countries that inherited more "extractive" institutions from their colonial past were more likely to experience high volatility and economic crises during the postwar period. More specifically, societies where European colonists faced high mortality rates more than 100 years ago are much more volatile and prone to crises. We interpret this relationship as due to the causal effect of institutions on economic outcomes: Europeans did not settle and were more likely to set up extractive institutions in areas where they faced high mortality. Once we control for the effect of institutions, macroeconomic policies appear to have only a minor impact on volatility and crises. This suggests that distortionary macroeconomic policies are more likely to be symptoms of underlying institutional problems rather than the main causes of economic volatility, and also that the effects of institutional differences on volatility do not appear to be primarily mediated by any of the standard macroeconomic variables.
(cont.) Instead, it appears that weak institutions cause volatility through a number of microeconomic, as well as macroeconomic, channels. The third paper reports relevant findings from bond markets. There appears to be no higher cost of borrowing for emerging market borrowers if their bonds are easier to restructure in the case of default. Given our findings on institutions, we suggest that default is likely to remain a recurrent event in many countries, and suggest that bond issuers and lenders should consider bonds that are easier to restructure.
by Yunyong Thaicharoen.
Ph.D.

Inequality rose rapidly in the run up to the 1929 stock market crash and the 2007 financial crisis. Both crises precipitated long and deep recessions. This paper seeks to determine if there is any deeper relationship between inequality and financial stability. The work presents an empirical investigation of the topic and theoretical model of how such a relationship could exist. My original contribution to the literature is threefold: (1) the empirical detection of a small interaction between economic inequality and propensity tofinancial crises, (2) the presentation of a novel measure of financial stability using principal component analysis and its interaction with economic inequality, and (3) the presentation of a novel theoretical model that demonstrates a possible mechanism by which inequality may reduce financial stability.

I present three essays on the economics of crime. The first considers an activity associated with 55% of all criminal offences in the UK: binge drinking. One group inextricably linked with such behaviour is the sports team. Members regularly engage in post-match drinking, where the team's reputation is at stake. Teams often apply peer pressure (the threat of punishment for refusal to compete) to ensure each member gets involved. Chapter 1 presents a simple model of competitive drinking, and evaluates the amount of peer pressure a team needs to apply when multiple equilibria exist. The thesis then turns attention towards criminal organisations. Chapter 2 discusses the use of initiation by protection rackets. Such rituals are widely used, and serve several purposes. Firstly, they allow initiates' skills to be assessed. Secondly, they act as an incentive to invest in skills. Thirdly, they signal to the racket's customers. The chapter derives conditions on the underlying distribution of abilities such that a racket can adjust initiation difficulty to improve its reputation. It then discusses these conditions in light of "key player" policies, suggesting they may be more effective than previously thought. Chapter 3 evaluates the impact of a variety of anti-crime policies on how a criminal gang recruits. Gangs counteract policy effects by adjusting the wage they offer and the intensity of violence they require their members to inflict. This can lead to policies backfiring; increasing the social cost of the gang. A policy which reduces the youths' incentive to join a gang leaves only hardened criminals as recruits. If gang size and violence are weak revenue complements, this causes the gang to substitute towards more violence. Policies are therefore most effective when they not only reduce the incentive to join the gang, but also increase youths' sensitivity towards inflicting violence.

This thesis studies some of the many costs associated with exposure to crime. Chapter 2 focuses on indirect exposure to crime, and investigates how homicides affect students' performance. A number of large administrative Brazilian datasets is used to estimate the causal effect of exposure to homicides in the public way on schooling outcomes. Within-school estimates show that violence in the surroundings of schools, at the residence of students, and on the walking path from residence to school has a negative effect on a number of measures of school achievement such as test scores, repetition, dropout and school progression. Results also show that school attendance suffers following a homicide in the school surroundings. Exceptionally rich data allow the investigation of heterogeneous effects and of the channels underlying these effects. Chapter 3 examines the effect of individual criminal victimisation in robbery and theft on birth outcomes using a unique dataset from Brazil combining information on the universe of victims of crime with vital statistics data. Results show that victimisation in robbery during the first trimester reduces birthweight substantially, by about 60 grams - 10 percent of a standard deviation in birthweight - and increases the likelihood for low birthweight by about 40 percent compared to the baseline. The results are robust to the inclusion of place of residence, hospital and time fixed effects and to the inclusion of a very large array of mother and pregnancy characteristics. Results also show that victimisation leads to a substantial increase in fetal deaths and a positive selection of live births, hence likely providing a lower bound of the estimated effects on birthweight. The very rich information from crime and birth records allow the investigation of the mechanisms underlying the estimated relationship. Chapter 4 studies the effect of criminal victimisation on labour market performance. A number of very rich Brazilian administrative datasets is combined to estimate the effect of exposure to day-to-day crime events of robbery and theft on monthly attendance and turnover of public servants. Using individual and workplace fixed effects, estimates show that after becoming a victim of robbery or theft, monthly attendance of public servants in the workplace is reduced. Individuals who were victims of crime are also more likely to change their workplace or to leave their job subsequently.

This thesis examines topics on the Economics of crime, with a specific focus on the application of Econometrics in studying issues around crime, community safety and policy in England and Wales. Chapters two and three highlight the gender gap in crime rates and sentencing outcomes and endeavours to identify possible causes. Utilising an ordered logistic regression model and a decomposition method, we find that differing risk preferences between men and women go some way to explaining the difference in offending rates. The analysis in chapter three uses a rich, individual-level dataset for sentencing in England and Wales and, controlling for confounding factors, we find that women are less likely than men to receive a custodial sentence when committing the same crime and receive a significantly shorter sentence when they do. Chapters four and five analyse key risk factors for “Killed or Seriously Injured” (KSI) road traffic accidents in Norfolk and Suffolk. While chapter four employs an ordered logistic regression model to identify specific risk factors, such as not wearing a seatbelt and poor visibility, chapter five adopts a more novel approach by estimating a Classification and Regression Tree (CART) model to identify groups of significant characteristics.

The economic approach to crime issues is a recent field of research, which spawned from Becker’s (1968) seminal work. In this PhD thesis we contribute to the existing literature with three original research papers. The first paper deals with an under-explored field of research, namely the origins of the Sicilian Mafia. We follow an approach closer to that of historians such as Lupo (2004) and Pezzino (1987). In their work, Mafia was strictly linked with the socio and economic struggles amongst emerging classes which took place after the end of feudalism. We tested this hypothesis using a new measure of Mafia activity and new explanatory variables derived from previously under-explored primary sources. Our key findings are that Mafia was likely to be active in councils dominated by large properties, with high land values, lower density of population and where there were few peasants who owned the land. In the second paper, we explore the channels that favoured the expansion of Italian gangs in the centre and north of Italy in the second half of the XX century. We empirically investigate the role of forced re-settlement and migration through the creation of a panel dataset at the provincial level for the period 1983-2008, again using data from previously under-explored primary sources. Consistent with the community network approach (Bauer and Zimmermann, 1997; Moretti, 1999), we find that migration is by far the most important predictor of Mafia presence in the hosting provinces. In the final paper, we evaluate the impact of trust on crime in five Caribbean countries: Jamaica, Suriname, Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago and Dominican Republic. We use individual data taken from Americas Barometer for 2010, which contains information on victimization experiences. In order to tackle endogeneity we employ an instrumental variable approach. The results show that our measure of trust exerts a crime reducing effect on property but not violent crimes. As we argue in the introductory chapter, all three contributions could be considered in the light of the new institutional economics approach. In particular, both organised crime and social capital provide extra legal solutions to securing property rights.

This thesis considers public policy effects on crime in Sweden using extensive administrative register data on all convictions in Sweden between 1973-2010. First, it explores the impacts of the Swedish compulsory schooling reform that took place between 1949-1962 on individual crime of the generation directly targeted by the education reform. Then it considers the intergenerational effect of this education policy on crime. Policies are often evaluated on either short term outcomes or just in terms of their effect on individuals directly targeted. If such policies shift outcomes across generations their benefits may be much larger than originally thought. This study provides novel evidence on the intergenerational impact of policy by showing that educational reform in Sweden reduced crime rates of the targeted generation and their sons by comparable amounts. The second policy evaluated in this thesis is a liberalization of the opening hours of the Swedish alcohol monopoly outlet stores that took place between 2000- 2001. This study distinguishes itself from existing studies by mapping out an age-specific policy impact on crime for all ages and for a broad set of types of crimes. Whether and how alcohol policies shift criminal outcomes differently for different ages and type of crimes is not well established. The liberalized opening hours of outlet stores had very heterogeneous effects on crime by age and type of crimes. It reduced overall crime rates for male teenagers by 15-20 percent, mainly driven by reductions in drugs and property offences. Men in their mid-thirties also experience a substantial reduction of overall crime rates by 9 percent that comes from reductions in other crimes category and traffic crimes. While a strong increase of 10 percent in the crime rate for men in their early to mid-twenties can be mainly attributed towards a large increase in drug offences.

Questa tesi contribuisce alla letteratura di economia politica attraverso l’analisi degli effetti di una crisi economica sulla tipologia di governo. In particolare, ci si concentra su due tipologie di governo che possono essere viste come anomalie empiricamente correlate a fenomeni di crisi economica e finanziaria: il populismo e la tecnocrazia. Dopo una rassegna critica della letteratura esistente, si sviluppano due distinti modelli di teoria dei giochi. Il primo analizza il populismo nel contesto di una relazione principale-agente tra l’elettore e il politico. Concentrandosi su come la probabilità che si affermi un governo populista è influenzata dai parametri che catturano la situazione economica del Paese, si dimostra che, in un contesto di crisi economica, è più probabile che il governo attui provvedimenti populisti. Il secondo modello spiega la comparsa di un governo tecnocratico (e in parte anche la sua stabilità) in un sistema politico in cui gli agenti principali sono due partiti e, in alcuni casi, un gruppo di tecnocrati. Qui si prova che il governo tecnocratico ha più probabilità di emergere in un contesto di crisi economica, quando il parlamento è equamente diviso e quando la distanza ideologica tra i due partiti è sufficientemente grande.
This thesis contributes to the literature on theoretical political economy analyzing the effects of economic crisis on the types of government. In particular, we focus on two types of government that can be seen as anomalies empirically related with the emergence of financial and economic crisis: populism and technocracy. After a critical survey of the existing literature on those topics, we develop two different game-theoretical models. The first one studies populism in the context of a standard political-agency relationship between a voter and a politician. We see how the likelihood of the emergence of a populist government is affected by parameters representing the economic conditions of a country, and we find that, in a context of economic crisis, the government is more likely to make populist decisions. The second model explains the emergence of a technocratic government (and captures some issues related to its stability) in a post-election partisan politics setting where the main players are two parties and possibly a group of technocrats. We prove that the technocratic government is more likely to emerge in a context of economic crisis, when the parliament is evenly split and the ideological distance between the two parties is big enough.

A criminalidade é um tema de extrema preocupação para toda a sociedade e vem despertando muito interesse por parte do meio acadêmico, inclusive dos economistas. A literatura econômica do crime é relativamente recente, mas já foi capaz de concluir que a criminalidade possui uma forte relação intrínseca com a educação. Assim, o objetivo dessa tese é analisar tal relação de duas formas distintas: o impacto da educação defasada sobre a criminalidade nos estados brasileiros no período 2001-2005 e o efeito da violência sobre o desempenho escolar dos alunos de São Paulo em 2007. Os resultados demonstram que um aumento da taxa de abandono escolar dos alunos da primeira série do ensino médio é responsável por uma elevação na taxa de homicídios. Além disso, também pode-se concluir que um aumento da violência nas escolas reduz a probabilidade de o aluno apresentar um desempenho satisfatório nas provas de matemática e português.
Crime is an issue of extreme concern to society and is attracting much interest from academics, including economists. The economic literature of crime is relatively recent, but was able to conclude that crime has a strong intrinsic relationship to education. Thus, the objective of this thesis is to examine this relationship in two distinct ways: the impact of lagged education on crime in the Brazilian states in 2001-2005 and the effect of violence on school performance of students in São Paulo in 2007. The results show that an increase in the dropout rate of students in first grade of secondary school is responsible for an increase in the homicide rate. In addition, one can conclude that an increase in violence in schools reduces the likelihood of the student to present a satisfactory performance on tests of mathematics and portuguese.

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES
The general objective of this paper was to analyze the socioeconomic circumstances of the occupational choice between the legal and illegal sector of the economy for young people (aged 18 to 23) convicted or detained in an interim regime, accused of economic crimes, currently serving a sentence or awaiting trial in selected Brazilian prison establishments (PEF I and CRESF, in Paraná, Central Prison of Porto Alegre, Madre Pelletier Women's Penitentiary, Guaíba Women's State Penitentiary, State of Arroio dos Ratos Penitentiary in Rio Grande do Sul). For this purpose, questionnaires followed by interviews were applied. Considering 209 respondents, the data were analyzed qualitatively, through descriptive statistics, and quantitatively, through logistic regression. The main characteristics of the people who committed the "young crime" were: single; white; of urban origin; born mostly in the states of Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul; studied up to elementary school; the parents were separated; with an income between 1 and 2 minimum wages; being users of alcoholic beverages, cigarettes and illicit drugs. Regarding to criminal activity, drug trafficking and theft / robbery stood out, being motivated, especially, by the idea of easy gain. Many have firearms, and their illegal action is done in partnership. They are mostly recidivists, they do not believe in the effectiveness of the judicial system, they favor the legalization of drugs, they attribute to the police action the failure of their criminal practice, they say they are religious, but they do not usually practice their religious beliefs. The econometric analysis revealed six main variables that increase the probability of a person committing an economic crime before reaching the age of 24: belonging to a non-traditional family composition; having parents working; use firearms; be motivated by the idea of easy gain; with favorable opinion on the legalization of drugs and be a user of alcoholic beverages. In general, the people interviewed presented economic rationality, problems regarding family, religious and educational backgrounds and discrediting in the institutions (justice, police, etc.). All this, allied to the fact that the benefit of the criminal activity is presenting a greater pecuniary return vis-à-vis its costs (moral or not), even if concomitant with a lesser life expectancy for this criminal practitioner, is motivating the young person to the practice of economic crimes.
O objetivo geral deste trabalho consistiu em analisar as circunstâncias socioeconômicas da escolha ocupacional entre o setor legal e ilegal da economia para jovens (de 18 a 23 anos) condenados ou presos em regime provisório, acusados de crimes econômicos, que atualmente cumprem pena ou aguardam julgamento em estabelecimentos carcerários brasileiros selecionados (PEF I e CRESF, no Paraná; Presídio Central de Porto Alegre; Penitenciária Feminina Madre Pelletier; Penitenciária Estadual Feminina de Guaíba; Penitenciária Estadual de Arroio dos Ratos – no Rio Grande do Sul). Para tanto, foram aplicados questionários seguidos de entrevistas. Considerados 209 respondentes, os dados foram analisados qualitativamente, por meio de estatística descritiva, e quantitativamente, por meio de regressão logística. As principais características das pessoas que cometeram o “crime jovem” foram: solteiro; cor branca; de origem urbana; nascidas majoritariamente nos estados do Paraná e Rio Grande do Sul; estudaram até o ensino fundamental; os pais estavam separados; possuíam uma renda entre 1 e 2 salários mínimos; sendo usuários de bebida alcoólica, cigarro e drogas ilícitas. Acerca da atividade criminosa, o tráfico de drogas e o roubo/assalto se destacaram, sendo motivados, mormente, pela ideia de ganho fácil. Muitos possuíam arma de fogo, sendo sua atuação ilícita feita em parceria. São majoritariamente reincidentes, não acreditam na eficácia do sistema judiciário, sendo a favor da legalização das drogas, atribuem à ação da polícia o insucesso de sua prática criminosa, se dizem religiosos, mas não costumam praticar suas crenças religiosas. A análise econométrica revelou seis variáveis principais que elevam a probabilidade de uma pessoa cometer um delito econômico antes de completar 24 anos de idade: pertencer a uma composição familiar não tradicional; ter os pais trabalhando; usar arma de fogo; ser motivado pela ideia de ganho fácil; ter opinião favorável a legalização das drogas e ser usuário de bebida alcoólica. De modo geral, as pessoas entrevistadas apresentaram racionalidade econômica, problemas no tocante às formações familiares, religiosas e educacionais, e descrédito quanto às instituições (justiça, polícia, etc.). Isto, aliado ao fato de o benefício da atividade criminosa estar apresentando retorno pecuniário maior vis-à-vis os seus custos (morais ou não), mesmo que concomitante com uma perspectiva de vida menor para este praticamente de delitos, está motivando o jovem para a prática de crimes econômicos.

Universidade Federal do CearÃ
Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento CientÃfico e TecnolÃgico
Utilizando novos dados da criminalidade no Brasil, foi estimado atravÃs de modelos economÃtricos, o impacto dos gastos pÃblicos em seguranÃa e assistÃncia social sobre a criminalidade nos estados brasileiros para o perÃodo entre 2001 e 2003. Em contraste com os trabalhos desenvolvidos atà o presente momento para o Brasil, que se utilizaram exclusivamente de dados de homicÃdios do ministÃrio da saÃde, quatro categorias de crime sÃo analisadas: homicÃdio, roubo, furto e seqÃestro. Baseado na teoria econÃmica do crime foi avaliado o sinal e a magnitude do efeito dos gastos pÃblicos, alÃm de fatores socioeconÃmicos, sobre o comportamento criminoso nos estados brasileiros. Os resultados obtidos com Efeitos Fixos e Primeiras DiferenÃas para considerar a heterogeneidade nÃo-observada, apontaram a concentraÃÃo de renda como um importante fator propulsor do comportamento criminoso, nas quatro categorias de crimes analisadas. Visando o controle da simultaneidade entre gasto pÃblico em seguranÃa e crime, tambÃm foram utilizadas variÃveis instrumentais, examinando se existe um poder dissuasÃrio dos gastos em seguranÃa pÃblica. Observou-se que, mesmo quando o problema de endogeneidade à levado em consideraÃÃo, nÃo existe um efeito de dissuasÃo consistente de medidas de repressÃo como despesas em seguranÃa pÃblica sobre o crime no Brasil. Na maioria das estimativas, os gastos pÃblicos em assistÃncia social apresentaram um efeito negativo e robusto sobre a criminalidade, sugerindo que este tipo de gasto à um importante fator para a reduÃÃo do crime.
Using a new panel dataset of the Brazilian States, it was estimated, by means of econometric models, the effect of social expenditure on enforcement and welfare on criminality during the period of 2001 to 2003. In contrast to past works developed in Brazil, which used basically data on murder, four kinds of offenses are analyzed: murder, robbery, larceny and kidnapping. Based on the economic theory of crime, we have evaluated the direction and the size of the effect of public spending, in addition to social factors, on the criminal behavior in the Brazilian States. Our results, using fixed effects and first differences to take unobserved effects into account, pointed out income inequality as an important factor to explain criminal behavior. Aiming to control simultaneity between spending on public safety and crime, it was still used instrumental variables, examining if there is a deterrence effect from law enforcement. It was observed that, even when the endogeneity issue is taken into account, there seems not to be a consistent deterrence effect of public spending on safety on crime in Brazil. In most estimates, public spending on welfare displayed a negative and robust effect on criminality, suggesting that this kind of expenditure is an important factor to reduce crime.

This study investigates the relationship between unemployment and crime by examining the large variation in unemployment in Sweden between 2007 and 2017. In this paper, I use a panel data set that consist of 3190 observations over 290 municipalities. The variation in unemployment serves as a proxy for macroeconomic events. The results suggest at best a weak effect from unemployment on violent crime and no effect from unemployment on property crime which goes against the established crime theory.

This thesis analyzes the economic crises of recent years through the lens of the Regulation Theory. It focuses on the Greek Crisis of 2009 and the Turkish Financial Crises of 2000 and 2001. Furthermore it also analyzes the crisis in the United States to give a better grounding for the current crises. The thesis tries to answer the questions of whether or not Regulation Theory proves to be a sufficient tool for analyzing these crises and whether or not these fit the definition of crisis that the Regulation Theory puts forward. It is argued that Regulation Theory explains to a great extent both the causes and the structure of the crises.

This paper compares the depth of the recent crisis and the Great Depression. We use a new data set to compare the drop in activity in the industrialized countries for seven activity indicators. This is done under the assumption that the recent crisis leveled off in mid-2009 for production and will do so for unemployment in 2010. Our data indicate that the recent crisis indeed had the potential to be another Great Depression, as shown by the speed and simultaneity of the decline in the first nine months. However, if we assume that a large second dip can be avoided, the drop in all indicators will have been smaller than during the Great Depression. This holds true specifically for GDP, employment and prices, and least for manufacturing output. The difference in the depth in the crises concurs with differences in policy reaction. This time monetary policy and fiscal policy were applied courageously, speedily and partly internationally coordinated. During the Great Depression for several years fiscal policy tried to stabilize budgets instead of aggregate demand, and either monetary policy was not applied or was rather ineffective insofar as deflation turned lower nominal interest rates into higher real rates. Only future research will be able to prove the exact impact of economic policy, but the current tentative conclusion is that economic policy prevented the recent crisis from developing into a second Great Depression. This is also a partial vindication for economists. The majority of them might not have been able to predict the crisis, but the science did learn its lesson from the Great Depression and was able to give decent policy advice to at least limit the depth of the recent crisis. (author's abstract)

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Prevention is commonly recognized as the best way to go in the fight against delinquency. Yet, working out sound policies is an extremely challenging task. The first two essays in this thesis contribute to the pursuit of innovative tools by highlighting the crime-preventing potential of technologies and occupations that make people willingly alter their time allocation choices. The rationale behind this is simple: offenses will be averted if individuals choose to engage in less crime-conducive activities substituting time away from more crime-conducive activities. This mechanism is known in the literature as “voluntary incapacitation”. In particular, the first paper analyzes the impact of Internet diffusion on crime in the US. Using a panel of state level yearly data and adopting an instrumental variable approach, I find a negative and significant relationship between Internet penetration and total and property crimes. Based on my theoretical framework, I interpret this outcome as reflecting voluntary incapacitation: time spent online crowds out alternative activities that would more likely lead to crime. The second essay investigates the entertainment-crime relationship by analyzing how criminal activity behaved in the city of São Paulo during the 2014 FIFA World Cup. Outcomes show that crime is significantly lower during matches, especially those with the highest remote viewership rates. Further tests suggest that these findings reflect the voluntary incapacitation effect, whereby the potential for criminal interaction (and thus crime) drops as people are busy watching the games. The main policy-relevant conclusion from the first two essays in this thesis is that providing access to technologies (such as the Internet) and entertainment activities (such as sporting events) may trigger a crime-preventive effect via voluntary incapacitation. The third paper also relates to crime prevention by tackling a crucial issue in the economics of crime literature – the empirical assessment of the deterrent role of policing. The difficulty arises from the fact that crime and police presence are simultaneously determined, causing a problem of reverse causality. I address the issue by considering the natural experiment represented by the creation of a special police unit to intensify surveillance around a few tournament-related locations in the city of São Paulo during the 2014 FIFA World Cup. I take into account that the championship may impact crime in other ways than just through increased policing, namely via fan concentration and voluntary incapacitation. In order to disentangle the specific effect of police on crime, I exploit the fact that the World Cup affected different areas of the city through different channels and at different times. Difference-in-differences estimates reveal that increased police presence leads to a significant reduction in criminal activity. The predicted elasticity of crime to police presence is remarkably close to estimates from previous studies.
A prevenção é reconhecidamente o melhor caminho para o combate ao crime. Contudo, elaborar políticas preventivas é um grande desafio. Os primeiros dois ensaios dessa tese contribuem para a busca de ferramentas inovadoras neste âmbito ao explorar o papel de prevenção ao crime de tecnologias e formas de entretenimento que fazem as pessoas alterarem voluntariamente suas escolhas de alocação do tempo. O racional é simples: delitos podem ser evitados se as pessoas optarem por gastar seu tempo em atividades menos propícias à ocorrência de crimes tirando tempo de atividades mais propícias à ocorrência de crimes. Este mecanismo é conhecido na literatura como “voluntary incapacitation”. O primeiro ensaio analiza o impacto da difusão da Internet sobre delitos nos EUA. Usando variáveis instrumentais em um contexto de painel por ano e estado, eu encontro uma relação negativa e significante entre penetração da Internet e crime total e crime contra a propriedade. Baseado no arcabouço teórico, eu interpreto este resultado como voluntary incapacitation: o tempo gasto online reduz o tempo gasto em atividades alternativas que mais provavelmente levariam a delitos. O segundo artigo investiga a ligação entre entretenimento e crime ao analizar a atividade criminosa na cidade de São Paulo durante a Copa do Mundo de 2014. Os resultados mostram que esta é significativamente menor durante os jogos, especialmente aqueles com as maiores taxas de audiência remota. Testes adicionais sugerem que estes resultados refletem o mecanismo de voluntary incapacitation uma vez que a possibilidade de interação entre potenciais vítimas e criminosos diminui enquanto as pessoas assistem os jogos. A maior contribuição para políticas públicas desses estudos é a conclusão que prover acesso a tecnologias (como a Internet) e atividades de entretenimento (como eventos esportivos) pode ajudar no combate ao crime através do efeito de voluntary incapacitation. O terceiro ensaio também relaciona à prevenção ao crime e aborda um desafio da literatura, que é a quantificação empírica do efeito de dissuasão da polícia. A dificuldade nasce do fato de que presença policial e crime são determinados simultaneamente, causando um problema de endogeneidade. Eu abordo o assunto ao considerar o experimento natural representado pela criação de uma unidade especial de polícia para o monitoramento de algumas áreas específicas da cidade de São Paulo durante a Copa do Mundo de 2014. Eu levo em consideração que o campeonato deve influenciar o crime através de vários canais (concentração de torcedores e voluntary incapacitation), e não só por meio do aumento do efetivo policial. Para separar o efeito específico da polícia sobre crime, eu uso o fato de que a Copa do Mundo impactou diferentes áreas da cidade em momentos diferentes e através de diferentes canais. Os resultados mostram que o aumento na presença da polícia leva a uma redução significativa da atividade criminosa. A elasticidade do crime à polícia estimada é muito próxima àquela calculada em outros estudos.

A presente pesquisa se constitui como um esforço de crítica. Um esforço de crítica negativa, teórica e social, que se debruça sobre a análise do processo de expansão e abertura das mais variadas formas de crédito às parcelas consideradas pobres da população brasileira, fenômeno recente e inédito na história do país que se expressa principalmente na primeira década do século XXI. O enfoque é dado particularmente ao caso de São Paulo. Sob a perspectiva da crítica do valor desenvolvida por Marx nO Capital e da dissociação-valor elaborada por Kurz e Scholz, a pesquisa se constrói a partir da consideração de depoimentos de mulheres residentes na periferia de São Paulo, no desdobramento da crítica às formas de entendimento produzidas acerca desse fenômeno, notadamente a realizada pelo Estado, por meio de dados e relatórios oficiais, e na geografia pela teoria dos dois circuitos da economia urbana dos países subdesenvolvidos.
The present study constitutes one critical effort. A negative theoretical and critical social effort, which looks at the analysis of the expansion and opening of various forms of credit to the installments of the population considered poor, recent and unprecedented phenomenon in the history of the country which is mainly expressed in the first case decade of this century. The focus is particularly given to the case of São Paulo. From the perspective of critical value developed by Marx in O Capital and dissociation-value developed by Kurz and Scholz, the research builds from the consideration of testimonials from women residing in the outskirts of São Paulo, in the unfolding of the critical ways produced on the understanding of this phenomenon, notably by the State, by means of data and official reports, and geography in the theory of two circuits of the urban economy in underdeveloped countries.

Déséquilibres macroéconomiques et leur résolution
Large imbalances in both the US and within the Eurozone preceded the global financial and economic crisis of 2008-2009 (the Great Recession). Ex-post, it seems surprising that not enough attention was given to the fast rise of these imbalances -especially to the development of housing price bubbles- by economists, and even less by policy makers. A long period of relatively low macroeconomic volatility occurring between the mid-1980s to the late 2000s -the so called “Great Moderation”- along with the underestimation of the existence of bubbles in asset prices gave the impression that the large crises of the past were unlikely to reappear. Many economic commentators even saw this as a sign of the decreased relevance of the International Monetary Fund since the global financial stability seemed warranted. The policy of low inflation was viewed by most in the economics profession as more than sufficient to maintain macro stability, and the efficient market hypothesis, developed first by Eugene Fama in the 1970s, dominated the macro-models used in the academia, international organizations, and in central banks (Shiller’s best seller “Irrational Exuberance”was among one of the courageous exceptions). As a result of this inattention, the fast unwinding of these imbalances plunged in 2008-2009 the global economy in an unprecedented crisis -by many measures- since the Great Depression. The recovery from the Great Recession has been slow, with a “double-dip” recession in the Eurozone, and the prospects for a return to sustained high growth still remain uncertain

The thesis contains three main Chapters in which the relationship between organised crime and corruption is studied from different perspectives. Chapter 2 presents a theoretical framework for analyzing the interactions between corruption and organized crime, together with the individual and combined effect of these phenomena on economic performance. We show how organized crime on its own reduces entrepreneurial activity, and how organized crime in conjunction with corruption may reduce such activity to a lesser or greater extent. Chapter 3 presents an empirical investigation into the impact of corruption on economic growth in the presence of organized criminal activities. Using a panel of 19 Italian regions for the period 1983-2009, the analysis reveals that corruption and organized crime have independent negative effects on growth, and that the effect of either is less severe when the other is also present. Chapter 4 presents a further empirical investigation which examines the determinants of organized crime and of common crime in a panel of Italian regions over the period 1983-2003. The analysis shows that both organized and common crimes respond symmetrically to certain drivers, but asymmetrically to others.

In this thesis, I draw on these theoretical models from the criminological literature and on the empirical tools from the field of economics to analyze crime from the perspective of economics. I use the city of Barcelona, known worldwide for its ability to attract tourists, as my area of study. To the best of my knowledge, no similar crime research has previously been undertaken in this city and, therefore, the results of this thesis should provide interesting outcomes for policy makers.. In Chapter 2, entitled "Should football teams be taxed? Determining crime externalities from football matches", I begin by demonstrating the economic importance of Football Club Barcelona. I then analyze the effect of Football Club Barcelona matches on crime from a spatial perspective. That is, I first evaluate the effect of the number of spectators on crime (thefts and assaults) by comparing crime rates on match days, both home and away, and days that are very similar in all other characteristics apart from the fact that no match has been played. I analyze two types of crime given that their determinants are likely to be very different: first, I focus on thefts, where the concentration of people in space and time may introduce incentives, or reduce costs, to potential offenders; and, second, I focus on assaults (fights and brawls in the main), whose drivers would appear to be more closely related to hooliganism, i.e., unlawful behavior related to football matches, such as fights, drunken disorder or damage to the belongings/property of others. In the next step, I analyze the impact of a football match on the spatial distribution of crime, by carrying out an Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) of the census tracts around the stadium on football match days and on days free of football. Employing econometric models that account for the positive skewed distribution and the over dispersion of the data (e.g. negative binomial regressions), I analyze how the scheduling of a football match can modify the distribution of crime in the city of Barcelona. In the case of thefts, the results indicate an increase in the number of crimes for the whole city of Barcelona on home match days, especially, in those census tracts that are within a 1-km radius of the stadium. This suggests that despite the increase in the number of police officers deployed around the stadium, pick pockets are attracted to crowds where the rewards are likely to be higher and the probability of being detained lower. These results are confirmed by the placebo test that shows a lower number of crimes are recorded in the census tracts around the stadium when Football Club Barcelona plays away. In the case of assaults, a similar spatial pattern to that described for thefts is found, although the overall impact for the whole city is not significant. This result suggests that there is a marked displacement effect towards the census tracts around the football stadium from other parts of the city. This phenomenon would seem to reflect the hooliganism that is present in and around most football stadiums in Spain. As such, the results obtained in this chapter provide public administrations with the opportunity to raise their revenue levels by taxing the crime externalities generated by football teams. In Chapter 3, entitled "How time shapes crime: the displacement effects of football matches in the city of Barcelona", I purposefully omit the spatial dimension of crime in order to focus on the temporal. I begin by undertaking an analysis of the temporal profile of crime for the city of Barcelona. That is, I carry out a very specific analysis of different types of crime and their unique temporal patterns. I specifically observe temporal crime patterns on a daily, weekly and monthly basis to determine whether they actually follow a clear pattern over time. I then conduct an hourly analysis to examine the impact of a major event, in this case a football match, on different types of crime. The results show that the football matches played by Football Club Barcelona reduce the levels of certain types of crime during the period of the game due to the incapacitation effect, i.e., potential criminals are incapacitated by the fact of their watching the game. Moreover, I find a reduction in those crimes typically reported only by the police, including driving crimes and drug consumption, due to what I identify as a substitution effect, i.e., police officers substitute their duty of reporting crimes for that of safeguarding citizen security. The consequence is an apparent fall in these types of crime, although the reality may be quite different. Finally, the results also show that in the hours leading up to a game and in the hours following the final whistle there appears to be significant increases in certain types of crime such as pick pocketing and violent crimes. Chapters 2 and 3 give more evidence on the determinants of crime and specifically on crime behavior modifications (as regards both time and place displacements) attributable to major events such as football matches. The results obtained provide police agencies with a better understanding of the way in which criminals shift their decisions regarding the commission of crimes in relation to major events: on the one hand, when criminals decide to commit their crimes on days when a football match is being played; and, on the other, where criminals choose to commit these crimes on match days. Placing these results into the context of public economics, football matches generate negative externalities in the form of higher levels of crime, which serves as a justification for policy makers to find new ways of financing the public sector and compensating the costs of these events. Moreover, and given that tackling crime is one of the main goals of police agencies, Chapters 2 and 3 also shed light on criminal behavior. Specifically, the results reported in these chapters help understand the way in which criminals modify their target preferences (both in terms of time and space) and, therefore, how the police might best deploy police officers in time and space. However, since the early eighties there has been an increasing interest among police officers to ensure that that people not only feel safer, but that they have an enhanced perception of their own safety (Cordner, 2010). Thus, the reduction of the fear of crime has been a major objective of the police given its impact on individuals’ well-being. For instance, a robbery not only has an impact on the victim itself, it also affects the individuals that witness the act (and those who subsequently know about it) since they are likely to feel unsafe and to modify their behaviour accordingly. Networking and social interactions can spread this insecurity among individuals consequently affecting individuals’ well-being. If the authorities are incapable of ensuring that people perceive their personal integrity as being guaranteed and that they live in a safe environment, public efforts and resources devoted to crime prevention and control may well not be assessed as fulfilling their primary objectives. In this sense, assessing the determinants of fear of crime and of crime risk perception are crucial for the public sector as they tackle the potential negative effects on individuals’ well-being. Community policing is the policy that has been used since the early eighties in an attempt at assessing crime risk perception determinants as well as the potential factors that may reduce crime. It consists of a more human approach to society as the police seek to get closer to the real problems and fears of the citizens. The level of crime risk perception is not only determined by crime or individual characteristics such as gender or age, but also by the characteristics of the neighborhoods. The broken window thesis (Wilson and Kelling, 1982) links three important concepts in neighborhoods: disorder, fear and crime. Specifically, this thesis states that the link between the three concepts may start with a minor disorder such as a broken window. If left unchecked, it will generate the perception that no one cares about it. Hence, this minor disorder may generate increasing levels of fear. Levels of distrust among the neighbours consequently rise and they start to behave differently - staying at home more and socializing less with each other. In turn, this leads to a reduction in natural surveillance permitting further disorder and minor crimes. In sum, crime risk perception is known to be an important determinant of individuals’ well-being. Therefore, it is crucial, especially for governments, to understand its determinants and those (public) policies that can reduce it. Among those policies, public resources devoted to police forces emerge as a key instrument not only to tackle criminal activity but also to impact on citizenship crime risk perception. In this framework, the aim of Chapter 4, entitled "When police patrols matter. The effect of police proximity on citizens' crime risk perception", is precisely to analyze the determinants (both individual and neighborhood) of citizens’ crime risk perception for the city of Barcelona focusing on the effect of police proximity and taking into account spatial aspects of neighborhood characteristics. We measure, according to the main theoretical theories, how the simplest contact of a police officer with citizens’ can affect their level of crime risk perception. In this sense, we analyze how police policies consisting of an approach to citizens, may be effective in terms of reducing peoples’ crime risk perception. After controlling for possible problems of endogeneity of police forces and crime risk perception and the potential sorting of individuals across neighborhoods, our results show that crime risk perception is reduced when non-victims (randomly) interact with police forces. Moreover, neighborhood variables, such as proxies for social capital and for the level of incivilities, as well as individual characteristics have an impact on individuals’ crime risk perception.
La tesis titulada 'Essays on the economics of crime: Determinants of crime in an urban context' tiene el objetivo de analizar los principales determinantes de la delincuencia en el contexto urbano. En concreto, analiza en profundidad los efectos de los partidos de fútbol jugados por el Fútbol Club Barcelona en la delincuencia con un objetivo tanto de análisis espacial como temporal. Adicionalmente, se analiza otra dimensión de la delincuencia: la percepción del delito. Para tales objetivos, se divide la tesis en 3 principales capítulos que reflejan 3 artículos que pueden ser leídos de forma separada o conjunta. En el primer capítulo, se analiza el efecto que los partidos de fútbol tiene sobre la distribución espacial de la delincuencia en la ciudad de Barcelona. Para tal objetivo, se utiliza una base de datos que por una parte, contiene todos los partidos de fútbol jugados por el F.C.B (tanto los jugados en casa como los jugados en otros campos de fútbol). Adicionalmente, y como gran novedad, se utiliza una base de datos única en España que contiene todos los delitos registrados por los Mossos de Esquadra i la Guardia Urbana desde 2007 a 2011 con información específica de donde han ocurrido, cuando han ocurrido y de que tipología delictiva se trata. Esta base de datos, permite realizar un análisis primero para el conjunto de toda la ciudad de Barcelona, y luego para aquellas secciones censales cercanas al estadio del Campo del F.C.B. La metodología utilizada consiste en un análisis exploratorio de datos espaciales mediante funciones de densidad de Kernel y la comparación de estos valores cuando existen partidos de fútbol jugados en casa y fuera de casa. De forma adicional, se añade un análisis de regresión que consiste en una primera estimación con datos de serie temporal a nivel de día para analizar los efectos de los partidos de fútbol sobre los hurtos y los delitos violentos en toda la ciudad de Barcelona. A continuación, también se realiza una estimación espacial que consiste en la estimación del efectos de los partidos de fútbol sobre los delitos violentos y sobre los hurtos a nivel de sección censal y día. En el segundo capítulo de la tesis, se realiza un análisis de los efectos de los partidos de fútbol sobre el desplazamiento de hasta 8 tipologías delictivas en la ciudad de Barcelona. El análisis se realiza mediante los datos descritos anteriormente. La metodología utilizada consiste tanto en un análisis descriptivo de todas las tipologías delictivas al nivel de hora, día, semana y mes, como en un análisis de regresión a nivel hora de los efectos de los partidos de fútbol sobre el desplazamiento de los delitos en el tiempo. Los resultados reflejan que ciertas tipologías delictivas parecen aumentar después del partido de fútbol mientras que otras, como el consumo de substancias estupefacientes y los delitos contra la seguridad vial, parecen disminuir. Finalmente, el último capítulo analiza, mediante datos de la encuesta de victimización de Barcelona, que determina la percepción del delito de los individuos. Analizo desde los determinantes individuales como sexo, edad, nacionalidad o renta, hasta los determinantes de barrio. Es decir, variables relacionadas con el entorno de orden y del aspecto del barrio. Finalmente, en este mismo capítulo se analiza como el simple contacto con la policía puede incrementar o disminuir el nivel de percepción del delito. La metodología utilizada es un análisis multinivel logístico que tiene en cuenta tanto el orden de la variable dependiente como las variables independientes a dos niveles.

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Since the middle of the 1990s economic research relative to speculative attacks has focused attention on developing a new generation model to predict ex ante the likelihood of a currency crisis on a specific country or region. This new family of currency crisis models was denominated Early Warning Systems, well known as EWS Models. This paper examines the 2002 Brazilian Crisis in order to answer two basic questions: a) The empirical literature analysis suggests that the extreme volatility in the Brazilian foreign exchange market on this period could be classified as currency crises? c) Which indicators, considered as one or as a group, could be related to this episode? With this purpose, this paper revisits the main topics on the theoretical literature of speculative attacks, currency crisis and EWS Models. More specifically it examines the Frankel and Rose (1996) precise definition on currency crisis duly adapted to a flexible exchange rate regimes. Also, it was elaborated a vector auto-regression model (VAR) trying to identify which indicators could be related to the extreme exchange market pressure in the 2002 domestic market
A partir de meados da década de 90, os estudos econômicos relacionados a ataques especulativos direcionaram seu foco de atenção ao desenvolvimento de modelos capazes de prever antecipadamente a possibilidade de ocorrência de crises cambiais. A esta gama de modelos estatísticos denominou-se Early Warning Systems, também conhecidos como Modelos EWS. O presente trabalho pretende examinar a crise cambial de 2002, buscando responder a duas questões principais: a) Com base na literatura empírica, é possível caracterizar a acentuada volatilidade verificada no mercado de câmbio doméstico no ano 2002 como "crise cambial"? b) Quais indicadores, analisados isoladamente ou em conjunto, podem ser relacionados com este episódio? Com este propósito revisitam-se aqui os principais pontos da literatura teórica sobre ataques especulativos, crises cambiais e modelos EWS. Especificamente, utiliza-se a definição de crise cambial elaborada por Frankel e Rose (1996), adaptando-a à realidade de um regime de câmbio flutuante. Além disso, elabora-se um modelo de auto-regressão vetorial (VAR) com o intuito de tentar identificar quais variáveis estiveram relacionadas com a ocorrência de pressões cambiais no mercado brasileiro no ano de 2002