Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Economics|Agricultural economics'

This thesis explores topics in Agricultural Economics and is composed of five papers. In the first paper (Chapter 2), a latent-class stochastic frontier model is used to estimate efficiency scores of farmers in Ethiopia. Compared to conventional models, which assume a unique frontier, much lower inefficiencies are found, suggesting that part of the inefficiencies uncovered in the literature could be an artefact of the methods used. The second paper (Chapter 3) revisits the link between cereal diversity and productivity using a panel dataset in Ethiopia. The results suggest that the positive effect between cereal diversity and productivity becomes much smaller when households who produce teff (a low-productivity and high-value crop) are excluded from the sample, hinting at the possibility that results could be driven by yield differentials between cereals, rather than diversity. The third paper (Chapter 4) estimates the labour impacts of the adoption of Soil and Water Conservation technologies (SWC) in Ethiopia. The results suggest that adopting SWC technologies leads to an increase in adult and child labour. Understanding the labour impacts is important in itself, but it also raises concerns about using impact evaluation methods that require no change in inputs as an identifying assumption of impacts. Paper 4 (Chapter 5), assesses the pertinence of a drought index that has recently been proposed in the literature by Yu and Babcock (2010) and argues that it defines drought too narrowly. An extension to this index is proposed and we show, using a dataset of Indian districts, that the original index is likely to underestimate the impacts of drought. In Paper 5 (Chapter 6), we identify data-driven ranges of rainfall for which the marginal effects of a rainfall-temperature index (RTI) are different and then we discuss how the impacts of drought have changed over the 1966-2009 period in India. Finally, Chapter 7 concludes.

According to the USDA Economic Research service, farm-level prices are on the decline. This decline in prices particularly hurts smaller scale operators with many needing to rely on off-farm income in order to ensure they remain in operation. This thesis studies two problems of key interest to the Southeast region and the State of Kentucky by investigating dairy management practices and the environmental benefits of hemp production. As dairy prices have been on the decline and dairy co-ops have tightened their restrictions on somatic cell count (SCC) levels, dairy farmers and farm managers must decide the best course of action for maintaining milk quality in order to maintain their contract and profitability. Maintenance decisions as well as factors like sanitation and animal living conditions can all contribute to bulk tank SCC and depending on the type of incentives or penalties instituted by the co-op they can have an impact on net farm income. The objective of the dairy study is to determine which dairy management practices have the largest impact on SCC levels. Industrial hemp is produced worldwide. Historically, the major producers of hemp have been China, Europe, and Russia. In 2014, the passage of the Farm Bill opened the door to the production of Industrial hemp through the development of state pilot programs. Then the 2018 Farm Bill removed industrial hemp from the Scheduled Drug list. This has further expanded the opportunities and excitement for this crop. The plant’s versatility and the variety of products that can be made from it are coming to light. Sustainability is one of the key attributes touted concerning industrial hemp. Specifically, in the state of Kentucky, it is expected to be a replacement for tobacco and other traditional crops. However, how does the crop compare to tobacco production in terms of sustainability? The objective of the hemp study is to develop a life cycle analysis on the planting and harvesting of hemp and compare its impacts to more traditional crops.

Neural networks have become very important tools in many areas including economic researches. The objectives of this thesis are to examine the fundamental components, concepts and theory of neural network methods from econometric and statistic perspective, with particular focus on econometrically and statistically relevant models. In order to evaluate the relative effectiveness of econometric and neural network methods, two empirical studies are conducted by applying neural network methods in a methodological comparison fashion with traditional econometric models.Both neural networks and econometrics have similar models, common problems of modeling and interference. Neural networks and econometrics/statistics, particularly their discriminant methods, are two sides of the same coin in terms of the nature of modeling statistic issues. On one side, econometric models are sampling paradigm oriented methods, which estimate the distribution of the predictor variable separately for each class and combine these with the prior probabilities of each class occurring; while neural networks are one of the techniques based on diagnostic paradigm, which use theinformation from the samples to estimate the conditional probability of an observation belonging to each class, based on predictor variables. Hence, neural network and econometric/statistical methods (particularly, discriminant models) have the same properties, except that the natural parameterizations differ.The empirical studies indicate that neural network methods outperform or are as good as traditional econometric models including Multiple Regression Analysis, Linear Probability Model (LPM), and Logit model, in terms of minimizing the errors of in-sample predictions and out-of-sample forecasts. Although neural networks have some advantages over econometric methods, they have some limitations too. Hence, neural networks are perhaps best viewed as supplements to econometric methods in studying economic issues, and not necessarily as substitutes.

In the first paper, I introduce a new framework to estimate household climate risk exposure based on a combination of climate and microeconomic data. I apply it to the Ethiopian Rural Household Survey (1994-2009) and find that households living at low altitudes are the most vulnerable to weather shocks. The second paper is based on a combination of open and double-blind randomized controlled trials (RCT) conducted in Tanzania in 2013 with 560 farmers. By comparing the results between the participants in the open and double-blind groups, we find that more than 50% of the total effect of improved seeds estimated in traditional open RCTs depends on farmers’ behaviour. The third paper, based on the RCT mentioned above (only the open one is used), tests the hypothesis that farmers try to escape forced solidarity when facing favourable conditions. We find that farmers having received the improved seeds decrease their number of social interactions. We interpret this as a sign that farmers seek to hide from the pressure to redistribute. In the fourth paper, I leave Africa for the Republic of Ireland and show that a large Irish agri-environmental scheme does not increase farmers’ risk exposure.

The proposed Domestic Emission Trading System in Canada included an offset market that was expected to provide cost-efficient carbon offsets to the Large Final Emitters. The objective of this thesis was to design an economic experiment that incorporated this institutional design. The experimental design included both regulated and non-regulated sectors and is based on a “cap and trade” carbon emission model. Three markets are included in the experimental design: timber, carbon, and electricity. The electricity sector represents the regulated sectors with a carbon emission cap while the forestry sector represents the non-regulated sectors, i.e. they do not have a carbon emission cap. The decision making framework of the forestry sector is based on a joint-product model; i.e. timber and carbon. The price of carbon offset credits impacts both timber and electricity supply.
Le système d’échange de droits d’émission envisagé au Canada incluait un marché compensatoire qui devait fournir aux grands émetteurs finaux des crédits compensatoires pour le carbone rentables. L'objectif de cette thèse était de concevoir une expérience économique qui incluait cette conception institutionnelle. L'expérience a été conçue pour inclure des marchés réglementés et non-réglementés et elle est basée sur un modèle “cap and trade” d’échange d’émissions de carbone. Elle a été menée sur trois marchés : celui du bois, celui du carbone et celui de l’électricité. Le marché de l’électricité représente les marchés réglementés avec un cap sur émissions de carbone tandis que le secteur forestier représente les marchés non-réglementés, c.-à-d. il n’y a pas de cap sur émissions de carbone. Les décisions de production dans le secteur forestier sont basées sur un modèle de production conjoint ; c.-à-d. celui du bois et du carbone. Le prix des crédits compensatoires pour le carbone ont une influence sur l’offre de bois et d’électricité. La réglementation de l’émission du carbone est incorporée dans l’expérience en utilisant une courbe de l’offre coudée pour l’électricité. Les prévisions de la théorie et du comportement ont été faites en se basant sur les incitatifs proposés dans l’expérience ainsi que sur l’expérience d’expériences antérieures.

This dissertation studies agricultural technology adoption, child labor and development. Although adoption of fertilizers has been high in South Asia, farmers may fail to use it efficiently. Besides higher costs incurred by households engaged in agriculture, inefficient use of fertilizers may also have negative consequences for the environment. The first chapter of this dissertation uses a field experiment in Bangladesh to study whether providing farmers access to a simple rule-of-thumb tool (leaf color chart) to manage the timing of fertilizer applications can improve efficiency of fertilizer use and lead to productivity gains. The second chapter explores whether characteristics of agricultural trainers, who introduced the leaf color charts to the farmers in the treatment group, play an important role in the adoption and use of leaf color charts by farmers. The final chapter of this dissertation studies the impact of a large public workfare program targeting rural households in India on children. In particular, we study the impact of time use by the youngest and oldest children in a household as adult time use changes in response to new work opportunities.
Public Policy

Doctor of Philosophy
Department of Agricultural Economics
Tian Xia
This dissertation examines several different issues regarding pricing and contracting decisions as well as risk management practices affecting the Unites States livestock industry. The resulting policy and market implications are applicable to industry stakeholders in the beef cattle industry. Each topic is presented in the following chapters. Chapter 1 uses time series techniques to identify movements in regional fed cattle prices under a mandatory price reporting system. Mandatory price reporting altered the structure of livestock markets by requiring supply and demand conditions to be reported twice daily thereby affecting the price discovery process. Results suggest the level of information flow and the transparency of prices increased, markets respond to new information quicker, and larger volume markets behave as a price leader to smaller markets with less volume. Chapter 2 uses closeout data to measure the variability of profits in fed cattle production. A mean-variance approach was used to model yield risk factors relevant to and known at the time cattle are placed on feed. Results indicate yield factors were influenced by several preconditioning variables such as gender, placement weight, feedlot location, placement season, and overall animal health and vitality. Estimates from the yield equations were then used to simulate the overall ex-ante distribution of expected profits for the cattle feeder and the results provide information regarding the effect of production risk and price risk on cattle feeding profits.

Institutional characteristics of the food assistance component of the California Special Supplemental Nutritional Program for Women, Infants, and Children (California WIC Program) incentivizes food retailers serving the Program to compete in ways potentially beneficial to consumers and Program operations, including enhancing the quality of available food brands and improving food access. First, I model a WIC retailer who does not compete in price for WIC consumers who are perfectly price inelastic due to the nature of food benefits. A theoretical model of non-price competition hypothesizes that pure non-price competition in brands mimics price competition, whereby these retailers carry a higher variety and quality level of brands under intense spatial competition; and that retailers will either minimally or maximally differentiate in horizontal (e.g., physical) space. Second, I develop the concept of vendor attrition, committed by participants, as a behavioral measure of retailers' contribution to food access in the WIC Program. An empirical approach using a unique dataset on retailers' locations and brand offerings, as well as participants' food benefit redemption patterns, confirms that retailers compete in brands. Namely, retailers carry more and better brands in salient product categories when facing more competitors, which, in turn, reduces attrition and increases market share. The results also suggest that maximal horizontal differentiation prevails, allowing the retailers to minimize costly brand competition.

Third, the nature of competition promotes food access within the California WIC Program for the following reasons: maximal horizontal differentiation serves to increase the geographic coverage of WIC retailers; and observed entry prior to a moratorium on new authorized retailers appeared to positively benefit Program access in the Greater Los Angeles region. In particular, entrant vendors experience lower vendor attrition, coincide with localized growth in participation, and may have induced new participation, evidenced by higher ratios of de novo participants. These effects on access systematically vary according to retailer characteristics and the food access status of retailers' locations. Policy aiming to reduce costs in state WIC Programs by restricting the behavior of retailers can be improved by considering the heterogeneity of retailers' impact on Program costs and access.

Beef cattle and calves are raised in all areas of the United States. Since beef cattle are scattered throughout the US, there are many different types of cattle with numerous different quality characteristics which are valued differently. Many calves raised until weaning age across the US are then sent to cattle feeding areas primarily located in Texas, Kansas, Colorado, and Nebraska. The prices that are offered for beef calves vary considerably based on quality and location. The theory of the law of one price suggests that prices in areas that trade should not differ by more than the cost of transportation. Implicit in the law of one price is that the product is homogenous in nature which is not the case with beef cattle. To test the law of one price, prices in the feeder cattle markets that trade should be equal after those prices have been adjusted for the cost of transportation and for differences in quality. Consequently, the objective of this thesis is to adjust prices for transportation costs and quality characteristics to determine if the law of one price holds in the US feeder cattle market. Data for this dissertation were obtained from Superior Livestock Auction in Brush, Colorado. The original data set included over 30,000 cattle lots sold throughout the entire US from 2004-2006 which includes valuable information such as price, breed, sex, number of head, days to delivery, location of sale, and destination of sale for each cattle lot. However, the data were narrowed to examine price and quality for weaned steer and heifer calves in the fall. This narrowed data set still contained 9,570 cattle lots which includes, specifically, steer and heifer calves, weighing between 450-700 pounds, and delivered in October and November. In order to determine if the law of one price holds for feeder cattle, first, a Hedonic regression analysis was used to determine the value of selected cattle, lot, and market characteristics. Second, the cost of transportation was calculated by figuring freight rates and animal shrinkage. Prices were then adjusted for freight rates and shrinkage values and for quality differences to determine if prices were equivalent across regions of the US and across states within a specific region of the US. Results from the Hedonic model showed that most cattle characteristics yielded expected results, and that there are differences in quality characteristics in cattle which affect the price. Further results revealed that the transportation adjusted prices varied by more than transportation costs, and that when adjusted for transportation costs, price were not the same across regions of the country. In combining quality characteristics and transportation costs, results also revealed that prices were different by region and by states within a region. Thus, based on the results from the data, it does not appear that the law of one price is upheld in the US feeder cattle market. The implications of the results are that there may be opportunities for arbitrage in feeder cattle markets. The results also indicate that cattle producers who are more distant from major cattle feeding areas receive prices for their calves that are higher than would be justified based on transportation costs and that producers who are closer to major cattle feeding areas receive prices for their calves that are less than should be expected based on transportation costs.

Thesis (Ph. D.) -- University of Maryland, College Park, 2004.
Thesis research directed by: Agricultural and Resource Economics. Title from t.p. of PDF. Includes bibliographical references. Published by UMI Dissertation Services, Ann Arbor, Mich. Also available in paper.

The aim of the study was to determine whether the training provided by universities offering agricultural economics degree programmes, is in line with the skills set required by the employers of agricultural economics graduates. In order to achieve this objective, a survey was conducted among the eight universities in South Africa that offer agricultural economics related subjects for degree purposes namely, the University of Pretoria, Stellenbosch, KwaZulu-Natal, Limpopo, Free State, Fort Hare, North West and Venda. Out of the eight universities, responses were received from six with no response coming from North West and Venda. Furthermore, a tracer survey was conducted among the alumni who attended these universities. This was to determine a different perspective to the quality of training in various programmes as presented by the Heads of Departments. The study established the different skills considered important for the success of the agricultural economics graduates in the work place. These are computer skills, soft skills (commonly known as interpersonal skills), business and basic agricultural economics skills. In order to have an effective workforce and efficiency in the workplace, majority of these skills should be developed during the undergraduate study at university level. The results obtained from the surveys amongst the universities indicated that the Heads of Departments were relatively satisfied with the basic skills their students had attained upon graduation. However, trading on South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX), tax planning and giving reliable advice to farmers, as well as applied welfare analysis are common areas that required attention and improvement throughout all the universities. The graduates were rated high in soft skills, computer and basic agricultural economics skills by the HOD’s. However, remarks were made about the students’ inability to communicate effectively in English especially, those whose home language is not English. The survey showed that 50% of the graduates’ spoke Afrikaans as a home language while only 8% were native English speakers. This is in line with the research conducted by Gough (2009) showing that only 10% of South Africans speak English as a home language. This statistic suggests the need for students to develop strong communication skills in English. Universities are perceived by the alumni to provide quality training and learning. However, the overall consensus is that universities focus their learning more on agricultural sciences rather than agricultural practice, a notion shared by Mafunzwaini, Thahane and Worth (2003). The universities offer various teaching methods, which include theoretical models and a few practical concepts. The alumni in the study revealed that more agricultural case studies should be incorporated into the study programmes. Case studies would offer future agricultural economists the knowledge and advantage of solving real-world problems. Some universities regularly invite industry professionals to give presentations to their students as a way of giving ‘real world’ experience of the industry. Mentorships and internships are value added programmes that require more attention and better coordination into the agricultural economics departments. A large percentage of the alumni (43%) qualified with a Bachelor of Science in Agriculture (BSc Agric) degree, followed by 7% in Bachelor of Commerce (BCom) and 4% in Bachelor of Agriculture (BAgric) degrees. Although, the overall perception on the quality of teaching received by the alumni was positive, they still experienced gaps in the training they acquired from the universities. Time management, problem-solving, analytical, advanced statistical skills and practical experience, were expressed as concepts not efficiently developed within their training that would have increased their rate of success in the workplace. The study also matched the skills set required by industry (acquired from the AGRIMASS survey, 2012) with the skills produced by universities established from the university survey. The skills match to a high degree. Although, the major concern for most employers was the lack of certain key personal and / or soft skills in the workplace. These skills according to the response of the alumni are unfortunately not extensively developed within the curricula offered by the university teaching programme. Overall, the results show that graduates are relatively pleased with the teaching received at the various agricultural economics departments. However, some improvement needs to be done to include personal and communication skills which are extensively required by employers. Strong collaborations should be formed between the agricultural economics departments, employers and the Agricultural Economics Association of South Africa (AEASA) in terms of establishing the proper requirements for employable agricultural economists. Students should be allowed to take up a comprehensive role within this collaboration of the universities and workplace, so as to establish solid roles for the profession and produce qualified talents into the industry.
Dissertation (MCom)--University of Pretoria, 2014.
tm2015
Agricultural Economics, Extension and Rural Development
MCom
Unrestricted

This dissertation presents a three-part study in modern empirical environmental economics. In these three studies, I focus on five core economic issues—equity, incentives, environmental quality, consumer behavior, and causality—and ask what environmental economics can teach us about three common topics: energy consumption, cannabis legalization, and pesticide application.

The first chapter examines how residential natural gas consumers respond to changes in the price of natural gas. With 70 million consumers, residential natural gas has grown to a first-order policy issue. This first chapter provides the first causally identified, microdata-based estimates of residential natural-gas demand elasticities using a panel of 300 million bills in California. To overcome multiple sources of endogeneity, we employ a two-pronged strategy: we interact (1) a spatial discontinuity along the service areas of two major natural-gas utilities with (2) an instrumental-variables strategy using the utilities' differing rules/behaviors for internalizing upstream spot-market prices. We then demonstrate substantial seasonal and income-based heterogeneities underly this elasticity. These heterogeneities suggest unexplored policies that are potentially efficiency-enhancing and pro-poor.

The second chapter explores what may be unintended—or unconsidered—results of cannabis legalization. Cannabis legalization advocates often argue that cannabis legalization offers the potential to reduce the private and social costs related to criminalization and incarceration—particularly for marginalized populations. While this assertion is theoretically plausible, it boils down to an empirically testable hypothesis that remains untested: does legalizing a previously illegal substance (cannabis) reduce arrests, citations, and general law-enforcement contact? The second chapter of this dissertation provides the first causal evidence that cannabis legalization need not necessarily reduce criminalization—and under the right circumstances, may in fact increase police incidents/arrests for both cannabis products and non-cannabis drugs. First, I present a theoretical model of police effort and drug consumption that demonstrates the importance of substitution and incentives for this hypothesis. I then empirically show that before legalization, drug-incident trends in Denver, Colorado matched trends in many other US cities. However, following cannabis legalization in Colorado, drug incidents spike sharply in Denver, while trends in comparison cities (unaffected by Colorado's legalization) remain stable. This spike in drug-related police incidents occurs both for cannabis and non-cannabis drugs. Synthetic-control and difference-in-differences empirical designs corroborate the size and significance of this empirical observation, estimating that Colorado's legalization of recreational cannabis nearly doubled police-involved drug incidents in Denver. This chapter's results present important lessons for evaluating the effects and equity of policies ranging legalization to criminal prosecution to policing.

Finally, the third chapter investigates the roles pesticides play in local air quality. Many policymakers, public-health advocates, and citizen groups question whether current pesticide regulations properly equate the marginal social costs of pesticide applications to their marginal social benefits—with particular concern for negative health effects stemming from pesticide exposure. Additionally, recent research and policies in public health, epidemiology, and economics emphasize how fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations harm humans through increased mortality, morbidity, mental health issues, and a host of socioeconomic outcomes. This chapter presents the first empirical evidence that aerially applied pesticides increase local PM2.5 concentrations. To causally estimate this effect, I combine the universe of aerial pesticide applications in the five southern counties of California's San Joaquin Valley (1.8M reports) with the U.S. EPA's PM2.5 monitoring network—exploiting spatiotemporal variation in aerial pesticide applications and variation in local wind patterns. I find significant evidence that (upwind) aerial pesticide applications within 1.5km increase local PM2.5 concentrations. The magnitudes of the point estimates suggest that the top decile of aerial applications may sufficiently increase local PM2.5 to warrant concern for human health.

Jointly, the three parts of this dissertation aim to carefully administer causally minded econometrics, in conjunction with environmental economic theory, to answer unresolved, policy-relevant questions.

Doctor of Philosophy
Department of Agricultural Economics
Brian C. Briggeman
U.S. farm profitability is near historic highs. This fact raises many questions related to the economics of production agriculture. Three questions are examined in this dissertation. First, should farmers use a different benchmark for farm profitability? To answer this question, a benchmark of farm profitability is developed that adds balance sheet information to an established benchmark which uses only income statement data. The second and third questions focus on cooperatives since farmers rely on efficient cooperative management to maximize their return on investment in the cooperative and their own farm profitability. How should cooperatives allocate earnings to farmers? To answer this question, a model is developed to inform boards of directors regarding optimal equity allocation decisions. Finally, do cooperatives face agency costs? To answer this question, a variable cost model is estimated to examine the indirect costs of leverage. The first essay used data from Kansas farms to determine the effects of the use of debt on cost efficiency. A nonparametric cost efficiency model was used to examine these effects. Results indicated that farms which were more specialized, had higher capital costs, and used more equity to finance assets experienced larger increases in efficiency when the use of debt was included in the analysis. The second essay used information on effective tax rates and empirically-estimated risk aversion coefficients in a portfolio model to determine the effects of different tax rates on the distribution of earnings. Results indicated that even a large deviation in current effective tax rates is not likely to affect the optimal share of allocated earnings. However, member risk preferences had an economically significant effect on the optimal share of allocated earnings, suggesting that board members focus on understanding member risk preferences. The third essay used data from U.S. agricultural cooperatives to determine the presence of agency costs due to the use of debt. A variable cost function was estimated to generate an index of variable cost efficiency which was used to determine the indirect costs of leverage. A negative relationship between debt and variable cost efficiency was found, indicating that agency costs were present for agricultural cooperatives.

Thesis (PhDAgric) -- Stellenbosch University, 2006.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This dissertation is a sojourn into institutional economics and its application to contemporary economic and development issues in South Africa. Economic development initiatives in agribusiness have much to gain from the theories and approaches advanced by the new institutional economics. Institutions are considered essential to the functioning of economies, markets and organizations, despite its neglect in neoclassical economics The study intends to prove that 'institutions matter', especially when social and economic transformation is necessary. The cases studied exhibit how institutions matter and shape economic outcomes. The theoretical basis established in this thesis was applied to economic development challenges such as contracting, organizational innovation, economic empowerment, land reform, building social capital, organizational design, supply chain management, entrepreneurial development, and modes of constructive engagement. The thesis is a compilation of academic papers applied to the various selected developmental challenges prevalent in South African agriculture. The study begins by delving into the more popular New Institutional Economics literature and specifically transaction cost economics. Somewhat unexpectedly, this leads to a greater appreciation for the insights generated by the Old Institutionalists in investigating the nature of institutions. Hence, the old institutional economics gains prominence in the latter part of this work, contrary to contemporary approaches followed in agricultural economics. The acknowledgement given to aspects like social capital and embeddedness is consistent with Williamson's proposed framework for the economics of institutions and this is used as the conceptual framework in this thesis. Whereas the new institutional economics was found to be useful in yielding knowledge through analysis and remediable outcomes, the old institutional economics retains its advantage in promoting understanding of problems especially in the face of complexity. This inclination has influenced the thesis in two ways. First, it diverted the latter part of the work towards the old institutional economics and the role of social capital in shaping institutions and economic behaviour. Second, it reverts to theories on the nature of the firm that complements the transaction cost approach. The transaction costs approach is thus only used where it is found most effective i.e. analysing vertical integration between firms and the relevant ex ante incentives and the ex post governance aspects Most studies are motivated by a general recognition of the role of institutions in framing economic outcomes and end up in the new institutional economics and subsequently transactions cost economics. This favouring of the transaction cost approach has found appeal due to its ability to predict structural and organisational outcomes such as the efficient boundaries of firms, internal organisation, contractual relations, incentives, etc. Methodologically, it enables analysts to employ the empirical and mathematical rigour that has become a feature, but too often the purpose, of economic research. Three papers are devoted to this approach and elicit organisational designs that best contend with identified transaction costs. The study confirms that several aspects matter in institutional analysis when applied in an economic developmental context such as South Africa. Historical context is acknowledged as a critical facet of institutional analyses in the sense that institutions are shaped by the forces of history. Social capital is established as an important component of institutional economic analysis and particularly relevant in situations where social capital has been eroded by political economic manipulations. Attending to social capital require (inter alia) insight into the nature of the societal context, implied path dependency, the extent of trust, enforcement mechanisms, and agency relations. Three of the papers attend to these aspects.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die proefskrif bevat 'n toepassing van institusionele ekonomie op kontemporere ekonomiese- en ontwikkelingskwessies in Suid Afrika. Die nuwe institusionele ekonomie het veel te hied tot ekonomiese ontwikkelingsinisiatiewe vera! in agribesigheid. Institusies word beskou as essentieel tot die funksionering van die ekonomie, markte en organisasies, ongeag, die nalaat daarvan in die neoklassieke ekonomie. Die studie poog om te bewys dat 'institusies geld', vera! wanneer sosiale en ekonomiese transformasie noodsaaklik is. Die teoretiese basis wat gevestig is in die proefskrif, vind toepassing op ekonomiese ontwikkelingsuitdagings wat insluit kontraktering, organisatoriese innovasie, ekonomiese bemagtiging, grondhervorming, bou van sosiale kapitaal, organisatoriese ontwerp, waardeketting bestuur, entrepreneurskap ontwikkeling, en modes vir konstruktiewe omgang. Die studie begin met teoretiese 'n ondersoek in die meer populere nuwe institusionele ekonomiese literatuur, en spesifiek transaksie koste ekonomie. Dit lei later tot 'n onverwagse waardering vir die insigting wat die ou institusionele ekonomie genereer, wanneer die aard van institusies bestudeer word. Gevolglik, verkry die ou institusionele ekonomie prominensie in die latere deel van die studie, in teenstelling met die landbou ekonomiese benaderings wat deesdae bespeur word. Die erkenning aan sosiale kapitaal en institusionele ingeworteldheid is in tred Williamson se voorgestelde raamwerk vir die ekonomie van institusies is word gebruik as die konseptuele raamwerk in die tesis. Waar die nuwe institusionele ekonomie nuttig is in die werwing van kennis, is die ou institusionele ekonomie nuttig in die kweek van insig en verstaan van probleme en kompleksiteit. Die proefskrifword op twee maniere hierdeur beinvloed. Eerstens, leun die latere deel van die werk meer na die ou institusionele ekonomie en die rol van sosiale kapitaal in die vorming van institusies en ekonomiese gedrag. Tweedens, verskaf dit 'n fokus op die teoriee oor die aard van die firma wat komplimenter staan tot transaksie koste ekonomie. Die transaksie koste benadering word aangewend in die ontleding van vertikale integrasie tussen firmas en die relevante ex ante insentiewe en ex post strukture, waar dit vera! nuttig is. Meeste studies erken die invloed van institusies op ekomiese uitkomste en gebruik hoofsaaklik die nuwe institusionele ekonomie en transaksie koste ekonomie. Hierdie vooroordeel ten opsigte van transaksie koste ekonomie, vind byval as gevolg van die vermoe om strukturele en organisatoriese uitkomstes te voorspel soos die doeltreffendheidsdrumpel van firmas, interne orgasnisasie, kontrakte, insentiewe, ens. Metodologies, moedig dit empiriese en wiskundige benaderings tot ontleding aan, wat ongelukkig a! die doe! geword het in vele ekonomiese ondersoeke. Drie van die referate wat in die proefskrif vervat word, behels die identifisering van toepaslike organisatoriese ontwerpe wat geskoei is op die transaksie kostes wat geldentifieer is. Die studie bevestig dat sekere aspekte van belang is in institusionele ondersoeke, vera! in 'n ekonomiese ontwikkelingskonteks soos Suid Afrika. Historiese konteks, word erken as a kritieke faktor in institusionele ontledings, in die sin dat institusies onontbeerlik deur geskiedkundige kragte gevorm word. Sosiale kapitaal word ook erken as 'n belangrike komponent in institusionele ekonomiese ontledings, vera! in omstandighede waar sosiale kapitaal verweer het as gevolg van polities ekonomiese manipulasies. Dit veries dat aandag geskenk work aan, ( onder and ere) sosiale konteks, gelmpliseerde koers afhanklikheid, vertoue, afdwingbare meganismes, en agentskap verhoudings. Drie van die referate word hieraan gewy.

Many of the world's rural poor make a living from agriculture. Consequently, the productivity of agriculture and non-agricultural employment opportunities are important determinants of rural poverty and the subject matter of the three essays in this dissertation. The first chapter in this dissertation estimates the long-term causal effect of inheriting land in rural India. Using quasi-experimental methods, I find that inheriting land greatly influences occupational trajectories and can suppress consumption to an extent that may overwhelm its direct benefit. The second chapter uses a field experiment to understand whether barriers to information influence agricultural productivity. We find that the introduction of a mobile phone-based agricultural information service greatly influences reported sources of information, input adoption decisions and agricultural productivity. The final chapter studies the effect of the external provision of agricultural information on social interactions and agricultural outcomes in village India. Using a field experiment, I find that the introduction of a mobile phone-based agricultural extension service influences the structure and content of social interactions with peers both within and outside the original study population. Respondents receiving valuable agricultural information are more likely to interact with their peers and share information from the service. These changes in social interactions also influence the agricultural outcomes of peers. These results suggest that technological innovations may increase the returns to in-person exchange of information and, in so doing, influence agricultural outcomes.
Public Policy

The purpose of this dissertation is to advance the understanding of the impacts of trade and domestic policies on production, trade, welfare, and productivity. The first chapter summarizes and extends the New Empirical Industrial Organization (NEIO) literature by showing that the cost function specification plays a crucial role in identifying the market power parameter in both autarky and trade models.

The second chapter uses a strategic trade policy framework and the NEIO literature to analyze the oligopolistic competition between U.S. and Chinese apple exporters in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and in their domestic apple markets. A theoretical model is defined and quantitative results are derived for changes in ASEAN tariffs on imports of U.S. and Chinese apples and the latter countries' subsidies. A structural econometric model is estimated and simulated to quantify the effects of changes in the tariffs and subsidies on trade flows, price, and welfare.

The third paper develops a strategic trade model based on the new trade theory to analyze competition between Florida and São Paulo processors in the U.S. orange juice market and São Paulo processors in the European orange juice market. Comparative static results are derived to analyze the effect of a reduction in the U.S. and European tariffs on sales and welfare in the United States, São Paulo, and Europe. A structural econometric model is specified, and the NEIO literature is utilized to identify the market power parameters. The estimated structural model is simulated to quantify a reduction in the U.S. and European tariffs.

The fourth chapter analyzes the short- and long-run effects of various subsidies by developing a dynamic general equilibrium model with firm-level productivity shocks and endogenous entry and exit. Measurement statistics are specified for welfare, real gross domestic product, and total factor productivity to make the analysis resemble the data-based measurements macroeconomist typically implement. The model is calibrated to a general and widely accepted set of functional forms and parameters. The impacts of the elimination of subsidies are quantified by numerically solving the model for both steady state values and equilibrium transition paths for the above measurement statistics.

Results from previous studies testing for under-reaction and overreaction in the commodity futures market are mixed and inconclusive. Using a data of more than 20 categories of future contacts ranging from agricultural, metal and energy, we have found significant evidence of under-reaction in food and agricultural commodities but not in the energy and metal sector. It is also found that those relatively inactive commodity future contracts tend to have a stronger tendency to under-react than commodity future contracts are very actively traded. The result also agrees with the behavioral hypothesis that under-reaction is caused by gradual incorporation of information among investors.

Previous analyses of market integration often ignore the spatial aspect of economic activity. A model of imperfect competition with changed implications for pricing structures is used to analyze spatial pricing relationships between ten feeder cattle markets. The econometric model is applied to reveal price structures over a six year period, a two year period, and to identify changes in price structures corresponding with the change from physical delivery to cash settlement of feeder cattle futures contracts. The six year analysis indicates that all markets are integrated through a lagged adjustment process. The two year analysis reveals short-term patterns of price independence or nearly instantaneous price matching among some locations. The change to cash settlement corresponds with changes towards either independence or instantaneous price matching activity for the markets involved. Four high volume central plains locations act as an integrated central market which the other locations match.

This dissertation focuses on econometric methodology and its applications in insurance and the stock market. The second chapter proposes a new semiparametric estimator for binary-choice single-index models. The estimator makes use of a "parametric start" idea from the statistics literature and applies it to econometric model estimation. Even though the chapter only focuses on binary-choice models, it is expected that the introduction of this idea to the econometrics literature is going to contribute to semiparametric estimation of econometric models in general, especially when one has (only) a rough initial guess about the shape of the unknown function. Consistency of the estimator is shown and the simulation results indicate that even though the parametric start is not correct in any of the simulation designs, the estimator's performance is very promising in the estimation of coefficients and probabilities. The third chapter successfully applies this proposed estimator along with competing parametric and semiparametric estimators and is expected to expand our understanding of private insurance company involvement in the U.S. crop insurance program. This chapter stands almost alone in the literature as an overwhelming majority of other studies examine the involvement of producers in the program. Although preliminary, the results of this chapter show that the insurance company involvement in this program may be too costly to justify and that the program may not be as efficient in terms of premium rates and rating practices of the federal government. The fourth chapter examines market volatility taking into account the New York Stock Exchange trading collar. The trading collar restricts certain forms of trade in component stocks of the S&P500 stock price index when there is "excess" volatility in the market. This important feature of the market has been ignored in the large volatility modeling literature and it is expected that this chapter contributes to this literature by showing that after some data manipulation it is straightforward to incorporate this feature into standard econometric models. Another contribution of this chapter is the successful use of a polynomial specification to capture the well documented U-shaped pattern of intraday market volatility instead of a computationally more difficult two-step procedure.

This dissertation seeks to identify causes and consequences of some of the most complex social phenomena, such as civil conflict and climate change. In the first essay I draw on existing theories of labor coercion (Acemoglu & Wolitzky, 2011, Dippel, Greif and Trefler, 2015) to examine how poor labor market institutions, as those present in places where cocaine production takes place in Colombia, prevent low-income farmers to grasp the returns of positive productivity shocks generated by good weather, and instead, witness increasing coca-profiting group confrontations in high productivity areas. I employed an Instrumental Variables approach together with Fixed Effects estimators to calculate the effect of exogenous variation in productivity on the dynamics of the conflict, to find that citizens security improves in high-productivity period and worsens in low-yield months. The second essay is a research project with Alberto Abadie, Maurice Kugler and Juan Vargas, where we examine the causal effect of Plan Colombia, the largest US aid package ever received by a country in the western hemisphere, on citizens security (measured by civilians and military killings) and illegal crop acreages in Colombia. To infer the causal effect of the policy on the illegal crop and violence outcomes, we rely on GMM estimators and high-frequency variations in violence. We show that the marginal effect of spraying of one acre of coca reduces the cultivated area by about 11 percent of an acre. Since aerial spraying may shift coca crops to neighboring municipalities, this results should be interpreted as a local effect. In addition, since the same coca fields are often sprayed multiple times, this figure constitutes a lower bound of the mean eradicating effect of aerial spraying. Our results also suggest that guerrilla-led violence increases both in the short and the long term. We interpret this result as evidence that the guerrilla tries to hold on violently to the control of an asset that is of first order importance for their survival. In the third essay I seek to understand household adaptation and labor market impacts of extreme weather events in developing countries. This project focuses its attention on labor supply in the developing world – the primary source of household income throughout the world. Also, household allocation of adult and child labor in response to precipitation represents an avenue for exploring potential adaptations that may minimize or worsen the welfare effects from extreme weather events. My econometric results provide evidence of reductions in labor income mainly through an increase in adult unemployment. Individuals try to smooth the loss of labor income by restorting to “forced entrepreneurhip” or self-employment and by sending youth to work. The worst estimate of the loss in real wages per hour is 8% in the rainy season, but this coefficient is most likely an under-estimation of the effect of floods on real wages per hour, as individuals may have been adapting to ENSO and the unavailability of labor market data from the most affected municipalities during the floods of 2010. Finally, estimates of the causal effects of floods are non-linear. While an additional 95th percentile flood raises the probability of unemployment by 0.0026 percentage points, the effect doubles with one additional 99th percentile flood.
Public Policy

Thesis (MScAgric)--Stellenbosch University, 2012.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The importance of the agricultural sector in the South African economy is often stressed by farmers and agricultural industry organisations. The reality, however, is that the sector has constituted less than 3% of the economy since 2005 (DAS, 2012). It is therefore important that the current role of the agricultural sector in the South African economy is investigated. This has been the subject of a number of studies. The most comprehensive study to date was undertaken by Brand (1969) within the well-known framework of Johnston and Mellor (1961). A number of less comprehensive studies have followed. This is the second comprehensive analysis of the role of the agricultural sector in the South African economy. This study reapplies Brand’s (1969) framework to the data currently available. The results are contrasted with those obtained by Brand (1969) and other authors, in order to establish whether, and if so how, the role of the sector has changed in the last 50 years. The results obtained are then incorporated into policy suggestions. The findings of this thesis are, firstly, that the agricultural sector has been unable to meet the demand for the main food items consumed domestically since 2000. This, however, did not result in the predicted rapid increase in food and general inflation. Secondly, agricultural exports have not played a growth-leading, but rather a balancing role in economic development, because the sector maintained a positive trade balance during the full period of analysis. Thirdly, the sector has released labour to the rest of the economy since 1962, thereby fulfilling what is seen as a requirement by the economic development literature. Fourthly, the sector has probably made a net transfer of capital to the rest of the economy since the mid-2000s. Lastly, the agricultural sector plus the sectors with which it has the strongest linkages represented around 7% of the economy in 2010. This study concurs with Brand’s (1969) main conclusion that the South African agricultural sector does not play a growth-leading or initiating role in the economy, but rather a growth-permissive role. This is due to the sector’s relatively small quantitative significance in the economy, which limits the growth impact of agricultural exports, capital transfers from the sector and linkages with the rest of the economy. The sector plays a growth-enabling role, however, by supplying food to consumers at the lowest possible price - either by producing it domestically, or by affording food imports with the exchange earned through the export of agricultural produce. In addition, the sector has an important role in providing employment, especially in rural areas. It is recommended that the current agricultural marketing and international trade policy framework, which is conducive to international trade and limits market distortions, is retained. The sector has the potential, given the adoption of the required policy, to create employment by virtue of its relatively high labour intensity and the existence of some complementarities between capital and labour in the sector. Also, the competiveness of the sector should be increased by means of an investment in infrastructure.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die belangrikheid van die landbousektor in die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie word dikwels deur boere en bedryfsorganisasies benadruk. Die realiteit is egter dat die sektor sedert 2005 minder as 3% van die ekonomie uitmaak (DAS, 2012). In die lig hiervan is dit belangrik dat die huidige rol van die landbousektor in die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie ondersoek word. Dít was al die tema van verskeie studies, waarvan die mees omvattende tot op hede deur Brand (1969) binne die bekende raamwerk van Johnston en Mellor (1961) aangepak is. Verskeie minder omvattende studies het sedertdien gevolg. Hierdie tesis is dan die tweede omvattende analise van die rol van die landbousektor in die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie. Brand (1969) se raamwerk word op die huidige data toegepas. Die resultate word dan met dié van Brand (1969) en ander navorsers vergelyk om vas te stel of, en indien wel hoe, die rol van die sektor verander het oor die afgelope 50 jaar. Hierna word die resultate in beleidsvoorstelle geïnkorporeer. Daar word eerstens bevind dat die landbousektor sedert 2000 nie in staat is om in die binnelande vraag na die hoof-voedselsoorte wat plaaslik verbruik word, te voorsien nie. Dit het egter nie tot die voorspelde sterk toename in voedsel- en algemene inflasie gelei nie. Tweedens het landbou-uitvoere nie ’n leidende rol in ekonomiese groei gespeel nie, maar eerder ’n balanserende rol vervul aangesien die sektor gedurende die volle periode van analise ’n positiewe handelsbalans gehandhaaf het. Derdens het die sektor arbeid aan die res van die ekonomie beskikbaar gestel, soos vereis in die ekonomiese ontwikkelings literatuur. Vierdens het die sektor waarskynlik sedert die middel-2000’s ’n netto-bydrae kapitaal aan die res van die ekonomie gemaak. Laastens het die sektor, tesame met die sektore waarmee dit die sterkste skakels het, in 2010 sowat 7% van die ekonomie uitgemaak. Hierdie studie stem met Brand (1969) se hoofbevinding saam, naamlik dat die Suid-Afrikaanse landbousektor nie ’n groei-inisiërende rol in ekonomiese groei speel nie, maar eerder ’n groei-vergunnende een. Dít is ’n gevolg van die sektor se klein kwantitatiewe omvang in die ekonomie, wat die impak wat landbou-uitvoere, kapitaaloordragte en die sektor se skakels met die res van die ekonomie op makro-ekonomiese groei het, beperk. Die sektor stel egter ekonomiese groei in staat deur voedsel teen die laagste moontlike prys aan verbruikers te verskaf - óf deur dit plaaslik te produseer, óf deur die invoer daarvan te bekostig met die buitelandse valuta wat deur middel van landbou-uitvoere verdien word. Verder het die sektor ook ’n belangrike rol as werkverskaffer, veral in plattelandse gebiede. Daar word voorgestel dat die huidige landboubemarkings- en internasionale handelsbeleid, wat internasionale handel bevorder en markverwringing beperk, behou word. Gegewe dat die vereiste beleid ingestel word, het die sektor die potensiaal om werk te skep weens die betreklik hoë arbiedsintensiteit, en die moontlikheid om arbeid en kapitaal in sommige gevalle op ’n komplementêre wyse aan te wend, wat in die sektor bestaan. Die mededingendheid van die sektor moet ook verskerp word deur middel van staatsinvestering in infrastruktuur.

In this paper the theory that Kentucky has a comparative advantage in agricultural employment, when compared to the United States, is examined. In order to test this hypothesis, a dynamic shift-share analysis was conducted using the thirteen major economic sector of Kentucky over the period 1970 to 1989. The resulting regional shift components, or competitive components, give support to the theory that a comparative advantage for Kentucky in agriculture does exist. Annual regional shift components, as well as their dynamic counterpart, possess predominately positive values, indicating outperformance by Kentucky’s agricultural sector when compared to the United States economy as a whole. Over the past few decades, the United States, as well as most other industrial nations, has experienced a dramatic decrease in employment in the agricultural sector of the economy. This employment shift has been accompanied by increased employment in the other sectors, such as manufacturing and services. The purpose of this thesis is to determine whether Kentucky has followed the same developmental trends as the United States, or has followed its own trends. If Kentucky has, indeed, followed its own trends, then what implications could this have on future development, as well as state developmental policy? In this paper, Kentucky’s developmental trends will be examined using dynamic shift-share analysis as a means of comparison. The first section provides a review of the relevant literature to support and explain the theory. Section two contains a discussion of the methodology and mechanics of shift-share analysis. The third section presents the data used, as well as a discussion of the methodology utilized in the analysis. Both the raw results and interpretations of these results are presented in section four. Finally, section five offers a summary and conclusions based on the empirical work.

The gap that exists between the technologies in developed and less developed countries leads to the possibility and necessity of agricultural technology transfer. The lower cost of transfer compared with costs of local development leads to profitable transfer for recipient country. Recipient country must perform local research to adapt the transferred technology to their local needs and to ensure that benefits are distributed in an equitable manner. Is it in the interest of the donor country to sell technology to less developed country? Conventional arguments consider only whether technology transfer to less developed country will be against the donor country's interest in agricultural product exports. It is incomplete. Economic surplus concept has been applied here to discuss both producer's and consumer's gain or lose. An empirical analysis of the U.S.-Mexico agricultural technology transfer showed that both Mexico and United States benefited from the technology transfer.