Academic literature on the topic 'Education, Higher – United States – Costs'

Do cost considerations justify the current structure of production of extension services in which one or more providers exists in virtually all of the contiguous U.S. states? Provision of extension services has sizable cost implications for the host institutions. Yet, to our knowledge, there has been virtually no analysis of the impact of extension on higher education costs. Using academic year 1995–1996 data, we estimate a multiproduct cost function for 1,445 public institutions of higher education in the United States, including 65 that provide extension services. We find evidence of significant economies of scale with respect to the provision of extension services but no evidence of significant economies of scope between the provision of extension and the production of research, undergraduate education, or graduate education.

This paper demonstrates that increasing income inequality can contribute to the trends we see in American higher education, particularly in the selective, private nonprofit and public sectors. Given these institutions’ selective admissions and commitment to socioeconomic diversity, the paper demonstrates how increasing income inequality leads to higher tuition, costs, and financial aid. A numerical example is presented that estimates how much lower tuition, spending (costs), and financial aid would have been if household incomes in the United States had grown by the same aggregate amount between 1971 and 2009, but with no increase in income inequality. The policy implications include the government addressing rising income inequality directly or changing the incentives facing higher education and will be of interest to those concerned with the rising cost of higher education and issues of access and affordability.

The article presents the study results of the effectiveness of managing the higher education system using the experience of leading countries of the world. The higher education systems of the United States, the UK and Sweden were chosen as the objects of study representing the North American, European and Scandinavian models of education. The educational organizations of the above countries traditionally hold the leading positions in the world ratings, including the rating of the national education systems Universitas 21, rating of the world's academic universities and ranking of the best universities in the world according to the Times Higher Education version. The official data of the leading world ratings in the field of education were analyzed, as well as the distinctive features of the educational policy of the United States of America, the UK and Sweden were identified, on the basis of which factors ensuring the high efficiency and competitiveness of the higher education system in the global educational service market were stated. Among the main factors are the following: high government spending on the education system, increasing the accessibility of higher education for the population, ensuring high quality educational services, export orientation, etc. The system of indicators has been formed to assess the effectiveness of managing national educational systems. The dynamics of coefficient of higher education propagation in the period within 1970-2014 has been illustrated; the forecast of involving the population of the leading countries into the higher education up to 2050 has been presented. It has been stated that in the developing countries the problem of higher education can be solved due to its accessibility and in the economically developed countries it is solved due to increasing the quality of educational programs, rising the number of educational trajectories and costs.

As a former international student, I never thought of an American Community College as being a choice to start undergraduate education in the United States. This is also true for many prospective international students who explore study opportunities in the United States. American community colleges (also called 2-year colleges) offer diverse higher education opportunities with comparatively lower tuition costs. Moreover, unlike in many other foreign countries, American community colleges are often the best pathway to a bachelor’s degree through transfer agreements that exist between community colleges and 4-year institutions.

Introduction: Traumatic brain injury (TBI) remains a primary cause of pediatric morbidity. The improved characterization of healthcare disparities for pediatric TBI in United States (U.S.) rural communities is needed to advance care. Methods: The PubMed database was queried using keywords ((“brain/head trauma” OR “brain/head injury”) AND “rural/underserved” AND “pediatric/child”). All qualifying articles focusing on rural pediatric TBI, including the subtopics epidemiology (N = 3), intervention/healthcare cost (N = 6), and prevention (N = 1), were reviewed. Results: Rural pediatric TBIs were more likely to have increased trauma and head injury severity, with higher-velocity mechanisms (e.g., motor vehicle collisions). Rural patients were at risk of delays in care due to protracted transport times, inclement weather, and mis-triage to non-trauma centers. They were also more likely than urban patients to be unnecessarily transferred to another hospital, incurring greater costs. In general, rural centers had decreased access to mental health and/or specialist care, while the average healthcare costs were greater. Prevention efforts, such as mandating bicycle helmet use through education by the police department, showed improved compliance in children aged 5–12 years. Conclusions: U.S. rural pediatric patients are at higher risk of dangerous injury mechanisms, trauma severity, and TBI severity compared to urban. The barriers to care include protracted transport times, transfer to less-resourced centers, increased healthcare costs, missing data, and decreased access to mental health and/or specialty care during hospitalization and follow-up. Preventative efforts can be successful and will require an improved multidisciplinary awareness and education.

Using restricted-access data from one of the largest urban public university systems in the United States—where many undocumented students are eligible for in-state tuition—we review the literature on undocumented college students in the United States and provide a comparison of the performance of undocumented students to that of U.S. citizens and other legal migrants. Overall, undocumented students perform well in the short-term, earning higher grades and higher rates of course and associate degree completion than their U.S. citizen counterparts. But undocumented students are less likely to earn their bachelor's degrees within four years. This finding suggests that, despite their earlier college successes and their access to in-state tuition rates, at some point after enrollment, undocumented students experience higher costs to completing their bachelor's degrees than they had anticipated upon enrollment. We offer a number of policy considerations for university officials and policy makers who aim to help undocumented college students succeed in postsecondary institutions.

This article provides an integrative review of the extant literature on K–12 student mobility in the United States. Student mobility is a widespread phenomenon with significant policy implications. Changing schools is most prevalent among minority and low-income students in urban school districts. There is an ongoing debate about whether student mobility is helpful or harmful. Earlier research compared movers with nonmovers using cross-sectional data and did not always include controls for the students’ prior achievement and demographic characteristics. Studies in the past decade compared movers with themselves over time using longitudinal data and provided more convincing estimates. Overall, switching schools is associated with a negative impact on students’ educational outcomes; however, transferring to higher quality schools may offset and outweigh the transition costs of moving. Strong causal claims are elusive due to considerable data and methodological challenges and the inability to account for the motivating reasons for changing schools.

Abstract This study evaluated the incremental healthcare costs associated with Fragile X syndrome (FXS) for patients and their caregivers. Using administrative healthcare claims data (1999-2012), subjects with ≥ 1 FXS diagnosis (ICD-9-CM: 759.83) were matched 1:5 with non-FXS controls using high-dimensional propensity scores. Costs and resource utilization were examined. Among employees, payment for disability leave and absenteeism were also examined. We identified 590 FXS and 2,950 non-FXS individuals along with 647 and 2,611 caregivers, respectively. FXS patients and their caregivers experienced higher all-cause direct costs compared to control cohorts (total[SD]: $14,677[46,752] vs. $6,103[26,081]; $5,259[19,360] vs. $2,120[6,425], respectively, p < 0.05). Employed FXS patients and caregivers had higher indirect costs compared to their controls (total[SD]: $4,477[5,161] vs. $1,751[2,556]; $2,641[4,238] vs. $1,211[1,936], respectively, p < 0.05).

The United States is one of the world’s perennial sports powers, yet the pathway to that success is littered with millions of youth athletes who either are not good enough to compete at a higher level or dropout from sport completely due to various personal, social, and organizational factors. These barriers are compounded by a win-at-all-costs mentality that pervades the U.S. sport culture and ultimately disenfranchises many youths from the opportunity to enjoy sport participation throughout their life. The authors argue that principle components in this flawed system are the lack of standardized coach education at the state and national level, weaknesses in the current curricula offered, and difficulties for aspiring coaches accessing existing training programs. In the current paper, the authors (a) briefly review the history of coach education in the United States as well as existing opportunities for coach education at the university, sport-specific, and private sectors; (b) provide a description of the strengths and weaknesses of the current coaching model; and (c) provide recommendations to improve coach education and training in the United States.

This study uses surveys and in-depth interviews to explore professors’ student loan debt experiences at a university in the Northwest United States, focusing attention on their perceptions of fellow colleagues’ experiences. Having been long-term students in higher education themselves, professors’ student loan debt has increased with the trend toward privatization and corporatization of higher education over the last several decades. Interviews reveal professors’ tendency to disassociate their colleagues’ student loan debt experiences from the public issue of rising higher education costs. We find that a university culture imbued with market ethos shapes their explanations for professors’ student loan debt, rationalizing debt as a result of poor spending habits or career choices. These explanations detract from the public issue of rising education costs being shouldered increasingly by students and their families, which we contend will result in excluding minority groups’ access to the profession and limiting diversity in higher education and research.

Forty-seven of the fifty states had some form of state-level board for higher education in 1981. Critics have expressed concern that the level of those boards' involvement in institutional affairs has steadily increased, while others have observed that administrative costs at the institutional level have gradually risen. It is not known if there is a relationship between the cost of operation of state-level boards and their level of involvement in the affairs of the institutions under their purview; nor, is it known if there is a relationship between the cost of operation of state-level boards and the cost of administration at the institutional level. The purpose of this study was to investigate these relationships. The population for the study consisted of twenty state-level boards for higher education, eleven governing boards and nine coordinating boards. The population further consisted of 216 public, four-year bachelor degree and higher degree granting institutions located in twenty-three states, including Delaware, Vermont, and Wyoming which had no state-level board for higher education in 1980-1981. Seven variables were hypothesized as factors either influencing the cost of administration in public, four-year institutions, the cost of operation of state-level boards for higher education, or the relationship between the two. These variables were formulated with data obtained from a survey of State Higher Education Executive Officers (SHEEO) member agencies and from Higher Education General Information Survey (HEGIS) financial and enrollment tapes. Pearson product-moment correlation and one-way analysis of variance were used to test for significance of relationships between pairs of variables. An analysis of each of the research questions was presented in textural and tabular form.<br>Ed. D.

Trends in tuition and financial aid policy have increased the number of students who borrow for higher education and the aggregate debt students acquire. Most research on student borrowing over the years has analyzed the effects of borrowing and the prospects of indebtedness on individual students' choices and persistence. However, dynamics at the institutional level such as the need to ensure a stable flow of resources may accelerate or slow down student borrowing. Drawing on resource dependence theory, this study examined changes in student borrowing at private not for profit four year institutions in the US to identify trends and implications. A fixed effects regression analysis was applied to panel data from the Delta Cost project and the National Association of College and University Business Officers. Analytical focus was on the financial and enrollment characteristics of private not for profit four-year institutions, the relationship between these characteristics and student borrowing, and whether these relationships are stable or change over time. Findings revealed that the financial and enrollment characteristics of private not for profit institutions during the study period were characterized by gradual variation. The results also revealed that most of the financial characteristics were predictive of student borrowing and that these relationships vary with time. Evidence from this study cautions higher education policy makers that high tuition dependence and the attendant student loan burden may disadvantage some students. Policy makers concerned about providing equitable access to higher education to all student subpopulations should try to moderate competition among institutions and tuition rises that intensify student borrowing. Institutional practices such as tuition maximization and selective price discrimination must be moderated so that financial aid, including loans, can realize the objective of encouraging fairness and choice in higher education entry.

Trends in tuition and financial aid policy have increased the number of students who borrow for higher education and the aggregate debt students acquire. Most research on student borrowing over the years has analyzed the effects of borrowing and the prospects of indebtedness on individual students' choices and persistence. However, dynamics at the institutional level such as the need to ensure a stable flow of resources may accelerate or slow down student borrowing. Drawing on resource dependence theory, this study examined changes in student borrowing at private not for profit four year institutions in the US to identify trends and implications. A fixed effects regression analysis was applied to panel data from the Delta Cost project and the National Association of College and University Business Officers. Analytical focus was on the financial and enrollment characteristics of private not for profit four-year institutions, the relationship between these characteristics and student borrowing, and whether these relationships are stable or change over time. Findings revealed that the financial and enrollment characteristics of private not for profit institutions during the study period were characterized by gradual variation. The results also revealed that most of the financial characteristics were predictive of student borrowing and that these relationships vary with time. Evidence from this study cautions higher education policy makers that high tuition dependence and the attendant student loan burden may disadvantage some students. Policy makers concerned about providing equitable access to higher education to all student subpopulations should try to moderate competition among institutions and tuition rises that intensify student borrowing. Institutional practices such as tuition maximization and selective price discrimination must be moderated so that financial aid, including loans, can realize the objective of encouraging fairness and choice in higher education entry.

This study examined the extent of research and teaching on higher education programs in the United States that focuses on for-profit higher education. This descriptive study used a 30-item questionnaire to gather the information reported here. This survey instrument was sent to the entire population of interest. This population was made up of all of the programs in higher education that are listed in the ASHE Higher Education Program Directory, which is produced by the Association for the Study of Higher Education. The results of this research show that little research and teaching is being done that has a primary focus on for-profit higher education. Recommendations on how to address this are provided.

This dissertation was written with the intent to determine the effectiveness of a community college program for Native American students. The procedure consisted of the following steps: (1) design of a survey instrument, (2) collect and collate the survey, (3) review literature with specific emphasis in programs designed for minorities and programs designed for Native American students in higher education, and (4) summarize the findings, and make recommendation to integrate into a reconstructed program that will improve and revitalize Native American students' recruiting, retention and graduation rates at the community college level, and prepare Native American students for university transfer. The major findings in this study are: (1) 95% of all the students enrolled at this particular college had a clear vision of their educational goals, (2) 80.2% of all the students enrolled in college were planning to prepare for a career, (3) most Native American students depend on financial assistance from several sources, (4) approximately half of all Native American students were underprepared for college, (5) less than 50% of the students surveyed actually got involved in special programs to aid them in college, and (6) the demographics of these students were quite similar to the non-Native American counterpart. Recommendations for these students include: (1) strengthen the educational foundation of these students while they are in K-12th grades, (2) in addition to providing financial assistance to these students, colleges need to set up a better support system in terms of transportation, work-study/jobs and housing, (3) when recruiting students, the student should be able to prove through assessment scores that they are able to benefit from a college education, and (4) transfer strategies must be part of the Native American program.

This paper focused on many aspects of higher education, and how this complex topic is affeccting law enforcement today and will continue to affect it in the future. The role of police officers has changed over the preceding two hundred years from watchman to professional peacekeeper. Experts attribute this change to increases in societal awareness of crime, the implementation of civil service protection, and educational advances.

This study was directed toward building a theory of retrenchment. To understand better institutional behavior during decline, it seemed pertinent to determine whether a patterned sequence of institutional responses to fiscal stress existed. Previous studies suggested a pattern of responses but had not analyzed those actions over a long period of time. This study examined the responses, over a ten-year period, of twenty-three, four-year colleges and universities that were observed in A Report on the Financial Conditions Project (1981) by the American Council on Education and the National Association of College and University Business Officers. Data collection centered around five response categories--operations, programs, faculty and incentives, policy development, and severe responses. Analysis was a two-phase process: secondary analysis of the ACE/NACUBO report provided data for FYs 1975-78, and analysis of questionnaire results revealed institutional responses during FYs 1979-81 and 1982-84. Institutions were grouped by enrollment experience. It was hypothesized that more political, less reactive measures would be used in the early stages of stress, but that more reactive, traditionally rational actions would become commonplace and more acceptable once the need for change was apparent. In the aggregate, the study found a pattern of responses: More political operational and programmatic responses preceded the more traditionally rational responses. With time, rational actions associated with policy development and the faculty and incentives category increased. The severe responses, though small in number, were confined to the declining institutions. Disaggregated data showed that institutional behavior was individualistic. Contrary to what was anticipated, more rational decisions frequently were not associated with decline; growing/stable institutions often were more responsive than declining ones. The study found that, since 1978, faculty participation in planning and implementation of retrenchment strategies increased; such responses likely attempt to make the change more agreeable. Contrary to the literature, respondents indicated that innovative activity increased as the result of fiscal stress, and that faculty morale improved. Furthermore, there is an apparent relationship between decline and the appointment of new presidents.

Congestion, emissions generated by transportation, increasing fuel costs and expanding demand for mobility have revived the interest for modern rail transportation throughout the world. Simultaneously, expansion of global trade and increasing demands for technology to improve the safety and productivity of the industry are creating a new environment that requires a different way of thinking when developing railway systems. Overall, the authors believe that current changes provide a fertile ground for institutions of higher education in the United States and the European Union (EU) to increase their transatlantic cooperation in education and research. Recent studies related to railway higher education have been undertaken in Europe and the United States. The European Rail Research Network of Excellence (EURNEX) conducted a study to develop and organize educational and training activities in participating higher education institutions. In Germany, a comprehensive inventory was conducted to define the current level of rail transportation activities in higher education institutions. In the United States, American Railway Engineering and Maintenance of Way Association (AREMA) conducted a study to determine the type and extent of rail education currently offered on campuses. In addition, a benchmarking study was performed by Michigan Tech University to investigate rail education and recruitment at universities with the objective to define the quantitative and qualitative demands for rail engineers by industry employers. This paper presents a synopsis of these past studies and introduces an on-going “TUNRail” project to “tune” and intensify the railway higher education knowledge exchange and collaboration between the EU and the United States.

Recent studies on textbook costs in the United States have indicated that there is a direct relationship between textbook costs and student success. With textbook costs increasing at a rate higher than the cost of living, many students have cited the textbook cost as an extremely important factor when obtaining (or not obtaining) a textbook. Open educational resources (OER) are tools that educators can use to supplement or build a course. OER are free for anyone to reuse, revise, remix, and redistribute and are a low-cost, tailored solution for faculty and students. There have been calls for research that demonstrates how OER are being put into practice. This case study examines the responses of users to a voluntary survey in a capstone business course that implemented OER in lieu of traditional textbooks. The study suggests that, for teachers and students, as well as self-directed learners, OER provide a valuable resource to eliminate the pay wall, improve learning design, and support the power of the community through sharing and collaboration.

As the Sars-CoV2 pandemic continues to grow, researchers around the world are urgently seeking new treatments to prevent infection, cure those infected, or lessen the severity of the disease. Although there are several recently approved vaccines, clinical trials are underway to "re-use" drugs normally indicated for other diseases. This teaching experience studies the market for 8 pharmaceutical products used to fight the pandemic (remdesivir, favipiravir, lopinavir/ritonavir, chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine, sofosbuvir, pyrfenidone and tocilizumab) in 13 countries (Bangladesh, Brazil, China, Egypt, France, India, Malaysia, Pakistan, South Africa, Sweden, Turkey, United Kingdom and United States). Through the analysis of prices and costs, we reflect on the difficulty of access to treatment according to the country.The objective is to deepen knowledge of the pharmaceutical market: (i) to demonstrate in a tangible way the differences between production costs and final prices of medicines, (ii) to perceive the difficulty of access to certain treatments depending on the country, (iii) to reflect on what initiatives should be implemented in an international emergency context such as the one we are experiencing.

Aim/Purpose: This study builds upon theory to develop and test a parsimonious model of service quality importance, the Higher Education Service Quality Importance (HESQI) Model, for use in standardized, frequent surveys of student satisfaction in higher education service delivery. Background: Educational institutions operating in the higher education marketplace are facing increased competition for students. In order to be competitive in terms of the student services provided, these institutions need a method to evaluate and measure, on a frequent and recurring basis, the quality and performance of their services. Methodology: A survey was developed and administered to a stratified random sample of 1,400 students at a large public university in the southwestern United States. The 56% response rate was comprised of 790 total respondents. Partial least squares structural equation modelling (PLS-SEM) was used to analyze model constructs and latent variables. Reliability, validity, non-response bias, and common method bias were assessed as part of the research. Contribution: The HESQI is a compact, parsimonious instrument that can be administered in a cost-effective manner for faster, point-in-time checks of student satisfaction with less survey fatigue than larger instruments. Findings Service quality is significantly correlated with student satisfaction. The developed model is capable of explaining nearly 70% of the variance in student perceptions of satisfaction. Recommendations for Practitioners: The developed HESQI instrument addresses the need for a quick and easy measurement instrument to assess student satisfaction in higher education institutions. The HESQI instrument simplifies data collection and analysis and can be used on a frequent and ongoing basis to gain rapid insight into service and quality issues affecting students. Recommendations for Researchers: The development of the HESQI provides an instrument that researchers can use to study the delivery of auxiliary services in higher education. In addition, the methodology used has implications for how to develop and test other parsimonious instrument for use in other contexts. Impact on Society: Higher education is of critical value to societal mobility. As such providing a better experience for those who seek education is important and services are an important part of that experience. The HESQI has an important role in helping to improve that experience because it allows measuring the satisfaction with changes that are made to improve auxiliary services which are important to the overall environment and experience. Future Research: Future research may be carried out to further validate and confirm the research findings and use it in other environments. Also, research may consider a single item instrument in similar environments.

Since 1981, the Community Environmental Monitoring Program (CEMP) has involved stakeholders directly in its daily operation and data collection, as well as in dissemination of information on radiological surveillance in communities surrounding the Nevada Test Site (NTS), the primary location where the United States (US) conducted nuclear testing until 1992. The CEMP is funded by the US Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration, and is administered by the Desert Research Institute (DRI) of the Nevada System of Higher Education. The CEMP provides training workshops for stakeholders involved in the program, and educational outreach to address public concerns about health risk and environmental impacts from past and ongoing NTS activities. The network includes 29 monitoring stations located across an approximately 160,000 km2 area of Nevada, Utah and California in the southwestern US. The principal radiological instruments are pressurized ion chambers for measuring gamma radiation, and particulate air samplers, primarily for alpha/beta detection. Stations also employ a full suite of meteorological instruments, allowing for improved interpretation of the effects of meteorological events on background radiation levels. Station sensors are wired to state-of-the-art dataloggers that are capable of several weeks of on-site data storage, and that work in tandem with a communications system that integrates DSL and wireless internet, land line and cellular phone, and satellite technologies for data transfer. Data are managed through a platform maintained by the Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC) that DRI operates for the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The WRCC platform allows for near real-time upload and display of current monitoring information in tabular and graphical formats on a public web site. Archival data for each station are also available on-line, providing the ability to perform trending analyses or calculate site-specific exposure rates. This configuration also allows for remote programming and troubleshooting of sensors. Involvement of stakeholders in the monitoring process provides a number of benefits, including increased public confidence in monitoring results, as well as decreasing costs by more than 50 percent from when the program was managed entirely by U.S. federal employees. Additionally, the CEMP provides an ideal platform for testing new environmental sensors.

[This Proceedings paper was revised and published in the journal Issues in Informing Science and Information Technology] Aim/Purpose : Executive doctoral programs in higher education are under-researched. Scholars, administers, and students should be aware of all common delivery methods for higher education graduate programs. Background: This paper provides a review and analysis of executive doctoral higher education programs in the United States. Methodology : Executive higher education doctoral programs analyzed utilizing a qualitative demographic market-based analysis approach. Contribution: This review of executive higher education doctoral programs provides one of the first investigations of this segment of the higher education degree market. Findings: There are twelve programs in the United States offering executive higher education degrees, though there are less aggressively marketed programs described as executive-style higher education doctoral programs that could serve students with similar needs. Recommendations for Practitioners: Successful executive higher education doctoral programs require faculty that have both theoretical knowledge and practical experience in higher education. As appropriate, these programs should include tenure-line, clinical-track, and adjunct faculty who have cabinet level experience in higher education. Recommendation for Researchers: Researchers should begin to investigate more closely the small but growing population of executive doctoral degree programs in higher education. Impact on Society: Institutions willing to offer executive degrees in higher education will provide training specifically for those faculty who are one step from an executive position within the higher education sector. Society will be impacted by having someone that is trained in the area who also has real world experience. Future Research: Case studies of students enrolled in executive higher education programs and research documenting university-employer goals for these programs would enhance our understanding of this branch of the higher education degree market.

After significant interest in the 1970s, but relatively few deployments, the use of concentrating solar collectors for thermal applications, including enhanced oil recovery, desalination, and industrial process heat (IPH), is again increasing in global interest. In particular, recent advances in collector design and manufacturing have led to reduced cost per square meter of aperture area. In this study, analysis of a modern parabolic trough that is suited for use in small solar IPH (SIPH) applications predicts that the installed solar field cost can be as low as $170/m2. A slightly higher cost of $200/m2 is estimated for facilities typical of a SIPH plant size. Full project costs will include additional costs for contingency, piping and heat exchanger interface, and project indirect costs. The cost for solar-generated heat by SIPH is quantified by defining the levelized cost of heat (LCOH). California offers a favorable environment for SIPH given its good insolation, gas prices typically higher than the national average, and policies promoting solar-thermal deployment. Given historically low gas prices, competing with natural gas remains the primary challenge to deployment. However, this study finds that the solar LCOH for many regions in California is lower than the LCOH from natural gas, using a representative installed solar hardware price and the average price for industrial natural gas in California. Lastly, modification are in progress to the parabolic trough model within NREL’s System Advisor Model (SAM) to allow users to more easily predict performance for these steam-generation applications.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.