Academic literature on the topic 'Effect of international business enterprises on'

Purpose Although the importance of network embeddedness attracted much attention in recent years, the interpretations of the underlying mechanism almost focus on the positive effects and neglect the potential negative aspects. This paper aims to use Chinese listed manufacturing enterprises, in the perspective of network embeddedness, to analyze whether resource curse effects exist in strategic networks of enterprises. Design/methodology/approach This paper examines the resource curse effect that exists in enterprise networks through analysis of enterprise’s total factors productivity compared with those of its industry peers with different degrees of embeddedness. This paper then uses several different methods, such as clustered fixed and random effect model, core and peripheral model, and generalized method of moments estimation in endogenous checks, to detect network curse effects and reveal three potential mechanisms, including overinvestment, extra maintaining cost and innovation extrusion. Findings This paper finds that excessive network embeddedness hinders continuous improvement of productivity, which is derived from three mechanisms: excessive network embeddedness makes information redundancy among enterprises, and the imitate-follow effect makes excessive investment seriously; enterprises have to encounter more problems and difficulties, such as information coordination and benefit negotiation, to maintain network relationship, which leads to extra cost; enterprises with abundant network resources may tend to more emphasis on marketable operational abilities, resulting in resource decentralization and less investment on innovation, which is finally not beneficial to productivity improvement in the long run. Originality/value Compared with previous literatures, this paper not only enriches the understanding of negative mechanisms in enterprise`s network embeddedness, but also unfolds the inconsistency of network embeddedness effects in practice and finds new evidence that the two types of network embeddedness are consistent in certain circumstances.

International tax issues already have not been problems of multinational enterprises. The effect of globalization and international business development causes that many small and medium size firms including agricultural entities are now engaged in the cross-border transactions and have to face the international tax issues. One of the important areas of international taxes is transfer pricing. The transactions between these persons should be assessed at their arm's length price according to the arm's length principle (internationally accepted standard) as the price which would have been agreed between the unrelated parties in free market conditions. The aim of the paper is to evaluate the impact of the selection of the form of the subsidiary on the total tax liability of the agricultural entity, including the determination of the transfer price, the application of the arm's length principle and decisions about the most suitable legal form of the subsidiary.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to establish the relationship between foreign participation in enterprises in Africa, their internationalization intensity and the associated moderating conditions. Design/methodology/approach The study utilized data from the World Bank enterprise surveys in 46 African countries across seven years. The hypothesized relationships are estimated using the Heckman two-stage pooled cross-sectional model to correct for selection bias. Findings The findings show that foreign participation in enterprises has a positive effect on internationalization intensity in Africa. While we observe this positive effect, we also found that there is a lot of heterogeneity that accompanies this effect based on enterprise size, financial performance and local market competition. Research limitations/implications The study contributes to the internationalization literature by showing that foreign participation in local enterprises can have a positive effect on the internationalization propensities of these enterprises. It also shows that the main effect is heterogeneous as it is moderated by other enterprise and environmental factors. Practical implications Enterprises should recognize the positive effect that foreign participation in them can have on internationalization intensity. Managers of African enterprises need to look beyond the investments into enterprises that foreign owners offer and take advantage of their foreign market knowledge and legitimacy. Discrimination in local markets could be considered as a push factor to internationalize. Originality/value While the study is not the first to explore the relationship between foreign ownership and internationalizing behavior, it is one of the earliest to show that the relationship is heterogeneous, and it provides some key moderators.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate performance drivers of women-owned businesses that are funded primarily through microcredit. It draws on Storey’s theory of small business growth and family embeddedness axiom to examine the factors that drive the performance of businesses that are funded primarily through microcredit. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses a cross-sectional survey that covered 208 women business owners who had access to microcredit. The authors use a logistic regression analysis to model the relationship between independent variables and enterprise performance. Findings The paper demonstrates that microcredit plays a significant role in business performance. The credit amount has the most significant influence on the enterprise capital base, whereas the effect on profits is insignificant. Also, owners are more likely to report growth in profits if they possess skills in business management. In addition, younger business owners and necessity entrepreneurs are more likely to report success in their businesses. Other factors that have a significant effect on business performance are product cycle, loan use and family support. Originality/value Many women in Tanzania are entering business ownership and depend on microcredit as their primary source of capital for starting and growing their businesses. However, just a few businesses grow into small and medium-sized enterprises. For informed policy decisions, it is important that the factors influencing the performance of funded businesses are known and well understood. This understanding will help the government and development practitioners assist women in achieving business growth rates that could warrant their empowerment and poverty reduction prospects.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to identify and analyze the impact of green supply chain management (GSCM) pressures, implementation level of GSCM practices and improvement in performance of the Indian ceramic enterprises. The paper also aims at benchmarking the Indian ceramic enterprises based on enterprise size and market orientation (export activity). Design/methodology/approach The research is based on the empirical study of Indian ceramic industry. Propositions are developed to study: the impact of GSCM pressures, implementation level of GSCM practices, improvement in GSCM performance, and the effect of GSCM pressures on implementation of practices, and impact of GSCM practices on GSCM performance. Data are collected from Indian ceramic enterprises of different sizes. Exploratory factor analysis is performed to segregate the pressures, practices and performance variables into constructs. Two-step algorithm, with log-likelihood measures of distance and Bayesian information criterion, is used to decide the optimal number of clusters. These clusters are compared and benchmarked according to the enterprise size and export activity. Findings This study finds that the implementation level of GSCM practices is higher in large- and medium-size enterprises as compared to small-size enterprises. Large- and medium-size enterprises have high impact of mimetic and informative pressures and small enterprises have high impact of coercive pressure (CP). Although the CP is high on small enterprises but due to the limited resources, these enterprises cannot afford to implement GSCM practices. The implementation of GSCM practices results into the improvement of environmental and operational performance but decrease in economic performance. Practical implications The findings of this study will suggest the policy maker to encourage the diffusion mechanism through a collaborative partnership with larger enterprises to enhance the implementation level of GSCM practices in small-size enterprises. Originality/value The novelty of the paper are: it analyzes and benchmarks GSCM pressures, practice and performance for Indian ceramic enterprises by considering enterprises size and export activities as control variables, and it finds the effect of GSCM pressures on the implementation level of GSCM practices and improvement in enterprise performance for Indian ceramic enterprises.

Enterprises involved in international business face transaction exposure to foreign exchange risk. This type of exposure occurs when an enterprise trades, borrows, or l?nds in foreign currency. Transaction exposure has a direct effect on an enterprise?s financial position and profitability. It is one of the three forms of exposure to exchange rate fluctuations, the other two being translation exposure and operating exposure. The aim of this paper is to assess the transaction exposure of enterprises in Serbia operating internationally. In addition to identifying and measuring transaction exposure, this paper explores the practical importance that enterprises in Serbia attach to management of this type of foreign exchange risk. We do not find significant differences between domestic and foreign enterprises in their choice of the type of foreign exchange risk exposure to manage. Although transaction exposure is the most managed type of foreign exchange risk, research has shown that, compared to foreign businesses, Serbian enterprises do not use sufficient protective measures to minimize the negative impact of this type of exposure on their cash flows and profitability. We expected that there would be a statistically significant dependence between the volume of enterprises? foreign currency transactions and the level of applied transaction exposure management practices. However, the results of our research, based on a sample of enterprises in Serbia operating internationally, show that transaction exposure management practices can be influenced by factors other than the level of an enterprise?s foreign currency transactions, such as the enterprise?s country of origin.

This study examined the characteristics of internal accounting control system based on size of human resources assigned to the system to verify whether downward stickiness of total cost and selling and administrative expenses differentially appears according to the level.An entrepreneur who wishes to maximize one's utility has an incentive to externally grow the enterprise beyond the optimal size or to possess idle resources, creating cost sticking phenomenon by possessing surplus resources even when sales volume decreases. Previous studies verified the effect of control system intended to resolve the agency problem on asymmetry of cost. This study expanded the scope of previous studies to consider internal accounting control system as a monitor of the agency problem. Enterprises that effectively operate internal accounting control system are expected to show limited opportunistic incentive of the entrepreneurs because of reduced agency cost.The main purpose for enterprises to establish and operate internal accounting control system is to provide accurate and reliable financial information to investors by preventing or uncovering accounting scandals of the management and possibility of errors. Internal accounting control system of Korea was first introduced in September 2001 through 'Corporate Restructuring Promotion Act', and Financial Supervisory Service announced the regulation on public announcement in September 2002 as a series of relevant measures. The regulation requires enterprises to publicly announce the number of workers in each department in charge of internal accounting control system on the internal accounting control system report. Under the presumption that internal accounting control can be more effectively done by increasing the number of workers in charge of internal accounting control system, the intent of such public announcement is to provide external interested parties with information that can be used to determine whether internal accounting control system of an enterprise is being effectively managed. Accordingly in this study, enterprises with large size of human resources assigned to internal accounting control system were predicted to show relaxed downward stickiness of cost.As a result of verifying 2,532 enterprise-year samples listed on Korea Stock Exchange between 2003 and 2008, enterprises with larger size of human resources assigned to internal accounting control system were found to show relaxed downward stickiness of cost. This means that an enterprise with large number of workers assigned to internal accounting control system can effectively monitor the enterprise, which can efficiently control opportunistic decisions of the entrepreneur such as downward stickiness of cost. As an additional analysis, human resources were classified into departments to which persons in charge of internal accounting are affiliated to examine the effect on downward stickiness of cost. As a result of verification, high ratio of internal accounting personnel assigned to accounting department resulted in relaxed downward stickiness of cost. Accounting departments in charge of preparing for financial statements were more effectively performing monitoring work compared to other departments.

This paper evaluates the effect of unregistered and informal sector business ventures on the growth of formal sector enterprises. The hypotheses tested is that formal sector enterprises that have to compete against unregistered or informal sector business ventures suffer from lower levels of performance, measured by annual sales growth, annual employment growth and annual productivity growth. To evaluate this thesis, data is reported from a World Bank Enterprise Survey (WBES) of 760 enterprises in Italy collected in 2019. The finding is that formal sector enterprises that report competing against unregistered or informal sector business ventures have significantly lower annual sales growth and annual productivity growth than enterprises that do not. The paper concludes by discussing the theoretical and policy implications, along with the limitations of the study and future research required.

Following China’s “One Belt One Road” global economic expansion strategy, Chinese small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) along with state-owned, large corporations are increasingly seeking business opportunities internationally. Little is known about the process of small firms’ international opportunity creation and discovery in this particular context. This study examines the role of Chinese SME manager’s global mindset in driving their international opportunity identification through two key activities in their internationalization process: international knowledge based and networking activities. Data were collected from a survey of 191 small and medium-sized enterprises in China. The results of structural equation modelling show that Chinese SME managers’ global mindset has a positive effect on both international networking and knowledge acquisition activities, which in turn have positive effects on the development of international opportunities. The findings suggest that SMEs, while going through the internationalization process, rely extensively on social interaction with foreign business partners to obtain knowledge of the customers and institutions in the foreign market.

Introduction. Today Ukrainian enterprises operate under difficult economic conditions, which have developed against the background of the constant increase in the cost of raw materials, energy tariffs, changing geopolitical situation, difficult political situation in the country, which is why most of the enterprises struggle for survival instead of development. Against this background, competition with foreign producers is aggravated, accompanied by a narrowing of the domestic market.Given the complex economic conditions of Ukrainian enterprises, their success today depends on the effectiveness of management in these conditions. Businesses require a modern business process management tool designed to adapt to new challenges and find ways to mitigate the effects of external factors. The economic development of the enterprise is conditioned by the progress of information technologies, the emergence of innovative forms of management, new principles of division of labor, etc. Changes in the management of business entities now require new scientific and methodological approaches, from which the enterprise is regarded as a set of business processes. One of the modern ways of improving the business system is the attraction of external contractors, which is solved by the introduction of outsourcing and allows to increase the efficiency of the enterprise and its competitiveness in the market.Hypothesis. Assessing the readiness of an enterprise to implement outsourcing provides validity of the management decision on outsourcing of business processes and helps to increase the efficiency of utilization of the enterprise's potential.The purposeof this article is to develop a methodological approach to assessing the degree of readiness of the enterprise to implement business process outsourcing to improve the efficiency of the enterprise in the current economic environment and to strengthen its competitive position in the domestic and international markets.Research methods. The methodological basis of the research is a system of general scientific and special methods, the main of which are: dialectical approach, methods of classification and systematization, analysis and synthesis, statistical and logical analysis, concretization, expert assessments and economic and mathematical modeling.Results. A methodical approach to assessing the degree of readiness of an enterprise to use outsourcing in business process management is offered, which, unlike the existing ones, makes it possible to substantiate the outsourcing decision taking into account the existing potential of the enterprise with a greater degree of certainty.Conclusions. As a result of the research, the problem of scientific and methodological substantiation of the enterprise's readiness for implementation of business process outsourcing at the enterprise was solved. This methodological approach enables the management of a number of indicators and the appropriate scale to assess the degree of readiness – the sufficiency of the enterprise's capacity to implement outsourcing and to overcome the risks associated with it. The proposed approach enhances the effectiveness of the management decision to outsource, is versatile and can be used in the practice of any enterprise that plans or already uses outsourcing in business.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Georgia State University, 2006.
1 electronic text (111 p. : ill. (some col.)) : digital, PDF file. Title from title screen. Dr. Ben Oviatt, committee chair; Brett Anitra Gilbert, Detmar W. Straub, William C. Bogner, committee members. Description based on contents viewed Mar. 28, 2007. Includes bibliographical references (p. 101-111).

As we all know, economic globalization and internationalization have sparked off countless studies and arguments in the past years. Some of the conventional theories about the internationalization of firms, however, are repeatedly challenged when they are applied to the less developed countries. The internationalization of firms from less developed countries has been a topic of growing interest in the international business and economics literature. In our study, we consider the influence of institutions from both the host and home country on entry modes of Chinese firms expanding overseas. Based on a sample of 314 China’s MNCs, the results support our hypotheses that both home and host institutions have significant effects on entry modes. Meanwhile, there are significant interactions between institutional quality of the host country and the government support of the home country and ownership type. At last, we find that both home and host institutional factors also affect the entry mode for a certain investment type, especially for the R&D investment. These findings have meaningful implications for understanding the internationalization behaviors of Chinese firms and the effect of dual institutional factors in studying the foreign entry modes of MNCs.

Multinational corporations (MNCs) around the globe commonly use cross-border related-party transactions (CRPTs) to shift profits from high tax jurisdictions to low ones to avoid paying taxes. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development and G20 countries launched the Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS) Action Plans in 2013 to constrain tax avoidance behaviors of MNCs, particularly the widespread use of CRPTs. This study examines how the localization of the BEPS Action Plans affects the tax avoidance behavior of MNCs in China. Using all the listed non-financial MNCs on the Stock Exchanges in China from 2012 to 2017, I find that: (1) Chinese MNCs with more CRPTs are more likely to pay less taxes than those with less CRPTs. Localization of the BEPS Action Plans does not have significant impact on this behavior. (2) The effect of localization of BEPS Action Plans to constrain corporate tax avoidance is more pronounced on MNCs with relatively poor information quality in the pre-location period; (3) local government-controlled firms (LG firms) with more CRPTs engage in more tax avoidance, but localization of the BEPS Action Plans significantly constrains tax avoidance activities by these firms in the post-location period. These findings should shed light on what mechanisms could constrain MNCs’ tax avoidance, especially income shifting through CRPTs, and how it could be affected by tightening of the tax laws on tax avoidance activities and by ownership structure in a developing country setting, in particular.

This study focuses attention on the multinational organization, an emerging phenomenon, in which people from different cultural backgrounds work together to produce a product or render a service. The purpose of this study is to enhance the available information about the potential for increasing productivity through the use of participatory programs, such as Quality Control Circles, in multinational organizations, especially those operating in Saudi Arabia.

Drawing on the dynamic capabilities perspective, this study provides some important insights into the paradox of the knowledge transfer-firm performance relationship in international joint ventures (IJVs) in an emerging market, China. It examines the IJV’s distribution capability as the underlying mediating mechanism through which the potential benefits of foreign parent-IJV knowledge transfer can be channeled and transformed into superior IJV performance. In this mediation process, the IJV’s absorptive capacity and market turbulence work as two boundary conditions that reinforce the role of foreign parent-IJV knowledge transfer on the IJV’s distribution capability. Specifically, this study delineates how the IJV’s distribution capability mediates 1) the complementary effects of knowledge transfer and absorptive capacity, and 2) the interactive effects of knowledge transfer and market turbulence, on IJV performance, respectively. Five hypotheses are proposed and empirically tested based on a random sample of 136 equity-based manufacturing IJVs in China. Overall, the results support the proposed hypotheses except hypothesis 1 which posits the IJV’s distribution capability mediates the effect of foreign parent-IJV knowledge transfer to the IJV’s ultimate performance. The findings reveal that 1) the IJV’s absorptive capacity and market turbulence strengthen the link of foreign parent-IJV knowledge transfer and the establishment of the IJV’s distribution capability; and 2) distribution capability mediates two complementary effects (knowledge transfer and absorptive capacity, and knowledge transfer and market turbulence) on superior IJV performance in emerging markets. The plausible explanation for the unsupported hypothesis 1 is the majority of the knowledge transferred by foreign parent is related to product development, organizational management and operational processes, rather than market knowledge. Hence, because distribution capability is an ability closely related to market, the true impact of the knowledge transferred on distribution capability may be blurred and even concealed if IJVs lack sufficient absorptive capacity or are currently operating in stable markets. In summary, this study makes an original contribution to extant IJV literature by unpacking the black box of the knowledge transfer-IJV performance relationship and reveals that the IJV’s distribution capability plays as an underlying mediation mechanism. It also identifies the moderating roles of the IJV’s absorptive capacity and market turbulence on the knowledge transfer-distribution capability relationship, and makes important empirical contribution to extant dynamic capabilities literature by substantiating the theoretical claim that dynamic capabilities have an indirect effect on firm performance, and that the existence and use of dynamic capabilities are more effective under rapidly changing environments. Keywords: Knowledge Transfer; Distribution Capability; Absorptive Capacity; International Joint Ventures; China

The best way to distinguish successful and unsuccessful businesses in free market economies, they have an important criterion is the situation in which these enterprises have the labor productivity and performance. One of the ways to determine business performance is to determine how efficient, unique and productive the resources are being used. This study aims to explain the effects of resource use in business on the firm performance. In this context, 33 companies were selected which were in operation in Istanbul Stock Exchange 100 Index and traded in the manufacturing sector between the years 2009-2016. The financial leverage ratio used to determine the sources and the profitability ratios used to determine firm performance were calculated. The panel data analysis was used as the method of estimation. In conclusion, it was found that financial leverage ratio had a significant effect on the asset profitability ratio, the net profit ratio and the previous profit to income ratio.

The use of information technologies (IT) and increase of innovation activities within Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs) which can easily adapt to the dynamics and changes can contribute to the regional development process. Though some studies have been concerned about the effect of information technologies or innovation on management performance, it can be easily seen that there has been very little empirical work for Small and Medium Sized Enterprises. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to analyze the effects of information technologies within Small and Medium Sized Enterprises on innovation (product or process innovation) and management performance. In this study data will be collected through SMEs in Aksaray province and in this way study will deal with the relationship between information technology, innovation and management performance. Data for the research will be collected through survey system. The questions of the survey will be created by using the theoretical and applied literature (validity and reliability tested in various contexts) including information technologies, innovation and performance. Unlike some of the questions taken from previous studies, the new ones will be developed in terms of literature review, recommendations of academic staffs and business managers. The analysis of collected data will be carried out through SPSS package program and by using the techniques of some tests like single sample –t- test and ANOVA test.

Business environment reform (BER) targets inadequate business regulations. It is intended to remove constraints to business investment, enabling growth and job creation, and create opportunities for international business to contribute to and benefit from this growth. However, there is a lack of detailed knowledge of the impact of BER on gender and inclusion (G&I). While a review of existing literature suggests that in general, there is no direct link between BER and G&I, indirect links are likely through the influence of BER on firm performance. Outcomes will be influenced by the differential ways in which women-led firms experience the business environment when compared to their male counterparts, with disparities based on how they are treated under the law, as well as structural and sociocultural factors. The fact that in many countries, female-led firms are fewer and smaller than those of their male counterparts, and may operate in different sectors, also affects these dynamics. This research offers new insights through an in-depth analysis of the impact of the Pelayanan Terpadu Satu Pintu (PTSP) or one-stop shop business licensing reform in 2009 on firm performance in Indonesia, and how these impacts vary based on the gender of firm leadership. The results find that on average, firms benefited from improved business performance (sales), as a direct or indirect effect of this reform, as well as an increase in the number of medium and large-scale firms. Outside Jakarta (Bali, Banten, Lampung), women-led firms experienced a small but significant benefit relative to male-led firms, related to both sales and the number of medium and large-scale firms they run. In Jakarta, women-led firms continued to lag behind men and there were no significant effects on employment, and this held across province and gender. These findings are based on an analysis of the PTSP reform using data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey (WBES), a survey of small, medium and large firms (i.e. with more than four employees) which took place in Indonesia between 2009 and 2015.

A large empirical literature has shown that countries that trade more with each other have more correlated business cycles. We show that previous estimates of this relationship are biased upward because they ignore common trade exposure to other countries. When we account for common trade exposure to foreign business cycles, we find that (1) the effect of bilateral trade on business cycle comovement falls by roughly 25 percent and (2) common exposure is a significant driver of business cycle comovement. A standard international real business cycle model is qualitatively consistent with these facts but fails to reproduce their magnitudes. Past studies have used models that allow for productivity shock transmission through trade to strengthen the relationship between trade and comovement. We find that productivity shock transmission increases business cycle comovement largely because of a country-pair's common trade exposure to other countries rather than because of bilateral trade. When we allow for stronger transmission between small open economies than other country-pairs, comovement increases both from bilateral trade and common exposure, similar to the data.

This report explores the implications of the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) on the future of the job market in the Philippines. It assesses how jobs, tasks, and skills are being transformed in the information technology-business process outsourcing industry and electronics manufacturing industry. These two industries have high relevance to 4IR technologies and are important to the country’s employment, growth, and international competitiveness. They are likely to benefit from the transformational effect of 4IR, if there is adequate investment on jobs, skills, and training. The report is part of series developed from an Asian Development Bank study on trends in skills demand in Cambodia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Viet Nam.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.