Academic literature on the topic 'Elasticity of housing supply and demand'

Housing is a challenging issue in Ghana, due to the rising demand and sluggish supply which has led to a deficit of more than two million housing units. This study aimed to estimate and analyse the determinants of the demand for housing in Ghana. The estimated elasticities show that owner and rental demand for housing is price and income inelastic. Permanent income elasticities were greater in each case than current income elasticity. The quantile regression showed that permanent income, current income and price were significant for all quantiles of housing units consumed. It is recommended that all these factors be taken into account when addressing the housing supply challenges facing Ghana to help clear the existing deficit and to provide for the anticipated increase in demand due to increasing income, since demand for housing in the country is income inelastic.

Purpose – The paper develops a housing model equation for Spain and selected regions to estimate new supply elasticity. The aim of the paper is to assess the role of housing supply on price evolution and explain the fall in housing starts since the start of the credit crunch. Design/methodology/approach – The paper uses a pooled EGLS specification controlling for the presence of cross-section heteroskedasticity. Fixed effect estimators are calculated to capture regional heterogeneity. The model uses secondary data (quarterly) for 17 Spanish regions over the period 1990-2012. A recursive procedure is applied to estimate model parameters starting with a baseline model (1990-1999) and successively adding one-year time information. Elasticities, as well as explanatory power from models, are reported and jointly analyzed. Elasticity is interpreted as the extent to which market mechanisms drive developer responses. Findings – Elasticities of new supply are shown to be very stable during all periods but characterized by differences in response at a regional level. Elasticity ranges from 0.8 to 1.3 across regions. The model reports a non-market-oriented mechanism that guides building decisions. The credit crunch and debt crisis have had a double negative effect capturing the cumulative effect of exogenous shocks. Research limitations/implications – Elastic responses restrained the effects of over-pricing in the period of strong demand pressures in the early 2000s. Changes in elasticity parameters over time suggest that long-term elasticity in housing supply depends on the specific region analyzed. The results show that the credit crunch shock had varying degrees of severity in Spanish regions, dramatically reducing house-building because of the high sensitivity to changes in prices. Practical implications – Estimated elasticity may be used to forecast responses to changes in housing prices. The results add to the understanding of the equilibrium mechanism in the housing market across regions. Originality/value – This is the first article that analyses housing supply, calculates supply elasticities and measures the impact of the credit crunch on the housing market from the supply side in Spain. The paper adds evidence to the debate concerning the equilibrium mechanism in the housing market.

While filtering has long been considered the primary mechanism by which markets supply low-income housing, direct estimates of that process have been absent. This has contributed to doubts about the viability of markets and to misplaced policy. I fill this gap by estimating a “repeat income” model using 1985–2011 panel data. Real annual filtering rates are faster for rental housing (2.5 percent) than owner-occupied (0.5 percent), vary inversely with the income elasticity of demand and house price inflation, and are sensitive to tenure transitions as homes age. For most locations, filtering is robust which lends support for housing voucher programs. (JEL R21, R31, R38)

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of monetary liquidity in house price evolution through examining the Asset (housing) Inflation channel. It identifies the main channels of transmission affecting house prices from monetary supply channels to house price change, examining how the Asset Price channel transmits changes in M1 to housing prices in Spain and the UK. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and Error Correction models to test the Asset Inflation channel in the UK and Spain from 1991 to 2013 in two steps. In the first step, the supply elasticity is estimated through the long-term relationship between house prices and stock supply. The second step estimates a Vector Error Correction (VEC) to explain house price dynamics conditioned on supply reactions. The latter is defined as a long-term inverse demand model where housing prices are controlled by fundamentals in each market. Models allow forecast testing using Choleski impulse responses methodology. Findings Several results are found. In the supply model, both countries show rapid convergence to equilibrium with a larger elasticity of supply in Spain than in the UK but with a short run effect of new supply on prices in the UK. Regarding the Asset Inflation Channel model, the paper finds evidence of the existence of a housing accelerator effect in Spain, but not in the UK where changes in liquidity fully impact house prices in one direction. Research limitations/implications Implications of findings are mainly to forecast the effects of Monetary Policy measures in different economies. Practical implications The model supports the evaluation of different impacts of monetary policy in territories. It shows that the same policy will have different impacts in different housing markets and therefore highlights the importance of examining each market separately to identify the appropriate policy interventions. Originality/value This is the first paper that estimates the impact of the Asset Inflation Channel on house prices that endogenises housing market conditions and compares effects and interrelationships in two different economies.

The volatility of commercial property markets in the United Kingdom has stimulated the development of explanatory models of ‘price’ determination. These models have tended to focus on the demand-side as the driver of change. A corollary of this is that, despite the fact that construction lags are known to exacerbate cyclical fluctuations, the supply-side adjustment mechanism has been subject to relatively little research effort. In this paper the authors develop a new model of commercial property markets in the United Kingdom. The model is adapted from Poterba's two-equation asset-market approach to modelling the housing market. The first equation is an arbitrage relationship where the return on property is made up of rent, as determined in the user market for property services, and the capital gain, which is dependent on the return on alternative assets. This can be interpreted as a ‘stock’ demand equation. The second equation explains that ‘flow’ supply is determined by real capital values. The long-run empirical generalisation of the two-equation model allows the authors to estimate two key behavioural parameters required in explaining supply-side adjustment to market change. First, the authors interpret the coefficient on the capital value variable in the supply equation as an estimate of the long-run ‘price’ elasticity of supply. Second, from the demand equation, they estimate the extent to which new supply can act as an ‘automatic stabiliser’ on property values. It is argued that although increases in demand drive up property values, new development is also initiated and will, in turn, dampen down the growth in real capital values. The equations are estimated for the office, industrial, and retail sectors. Although there are no comparable estimates of supply elasticities in the real estate economics literature, the results are generally consistent with prior knowledge. Estimates of the stabiliser effect are also plausible and, taken together, the supply-side parameters help provide insights required in understanding property market dynamics in the last twenty-five years.

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide perspective on whether and why global metro house prices have become more synchronized, and perspective on the limited implications of this for investing in international real estate. Design/methodology/approach This paper reviews main findings from the literature on house price determination, reviews the emerging literature on global synchronization, and provides graphs to illustrate main points and trends. Findings House prices have become somewhat more synchronized likely reflecting greater correlation in long-term interest rates and macroeconomic cycles related to trends in globalization and international portfolio diversification. Nevertheless, this trend has not been continuous, reflecting that house prices depend on other fundamentals, which are not uniform across areas. Theory and evidence indicate that the more common are fundamentals, the more synchronized are house price cycles and the more substitution effects may matter. Also, real estate markets that are open to immigration and foreign investment have become more sensitive to shifts in the international demand for property by migrants or investors. Research limitations/implications Changes in international house price synchronization stem from variation in two categories of key drivers of house prices. The first are traditional supply and demand fundamentals. The second include international capital flows and immigration. Both sets of factors are sensitive to the economic environment and public policy. Increased synchronization of business cycles, the Euro currency union, and more common monetary policy strategies and tactics have fostered greater correlation of real interest rates across countries, which tend to increase house price synchronization. These effects can be amplified by the tendency for property owners to use extrapolative expectations of future house prices. Practical implications Shifts in prospective returns and the synchronization of international property returns not only on arbitrage of general property price differentials but also on underlying factors driving those differentials. Investors need to be mindful of the risks that metro prices sometimes reflect bubble-builder dynamics that can give rise to over-shooting of house prices. Observing simple correlations and changes in those correlations does not do away with the need for careful analysis of property investment, and if anything, warrant analysis of both how and why one may observe changes in the extent to which international house prices is synchronized. Social implications Despite the rise of globalization and of new technologies, the author has seen substantial divergences in house prices emerge across gateway cities and metros in less vibrant areas within countries. These reflect not only the impact of stronger income and population in more tech, educated and global oriented cities but also changes in the demand for amenities toward more culturally appealing cities, often – but not exclusively in – warmer or coastal areas where the supply elasticity of housing is often limited. Further complicating investment decisions are potential shifts in housing or immigration policy that can notably affect the demand for housing. Originality/value The paper provides practical perspective on why different groups of international cities have seen their house prices become more sychronized. Nevertheless, increased synchronization has occurred within an elite set of major cities, but in an environment house prices have diverged across gateway cities and metros in less vibrant areas within countries. The paper helps investors make sense of some recent patterns and recent prospects for investing in international real estate.

Actuality of research theme. The process of Ukraine's integration into the European Community actualizes the issue of the compliance of the administrative and territorial structure with European principles of regional and local development organization, and the formation of local self-government. Nowadays the problem of developing an effective system of management of the infrastructure united territorial communities (UTCs) formation in the context of administrative and territorial reform implementation based on the principles of decentralization becomes especially acute. Problem statement. Nowadays conditions, the reform of the administrative-territorial structure and the decentralization of power in Ukraine require special attention to the problem of housing and communal services management, since its maintenance is ensured by local authorities and created in the process of reforming the united territorial communities (OTСs). Analysis of the last researches and publications. The modern aspects of decision of problems of development of territorial communities and local self-government such scientists engage in, as Pavliuk A. P., Oliinyk D. I., Batalov O. A., Datsko O. I., Murkovych L. L., Molodozhen Yu. B.and other [1-4]. The results of own researches of problem are in to [5-13]. Selection of unexplored parts of general issue. The new administrative and territorial system should become the basis for constructing a new model of territorial administration, based on the principles of decentralization, subsidiarity, balance of national interests with regional and territorial communities` interests representation, local self-governance widespread, territorial communities` power and autonomy, coherence with natural geographical capacity. That is why the problem of mechanism for managing regional housing and communal services programs and to determine the optimal pricing models taking into account world experience. Task statement, research aim. To search for new mechanisms of efficient pricing management in housing and utilities using world experience and peculiarities of domestic business practices. Method or methodology of realization of research. In the process of realization researches drawn on scientific (analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, analytical grouping) and special (abstracting, economical-mathematical design, etc.) methods of study of the economic phenomena and processes. Exposition of basic material (job performances). In the world practice certain methods of pricing under natural monopoly were formed. The analysis of the essence and peculiarities of these methods to adopt the best practices: а) Rate of return regulation. This is the most traditional approach to set price of goods (services) of natural monopolies. It is based on cost-plus pricing calculation. It is used in Ukraine. b) Price cap regulation (price restrictions). The method`s essence is to set fixed maximum price limitations by the regulatory institution. The institution has the right to set the price, which is lower or equals the limit, and to profit. As the profit does not correlate to costs, there is the stimulating mechanism to cut them. The model assumes quite a long period between tariff revisions – 4-5 years. c) Profit-sharing plan with sliding scale. Unlike the previous method, in which natural monopoly gains significant profits, this method assumes to use the sliding scale of profit distribution between a producer and a consumer. d) Price discrimination. Price discrimination is a pricing strategy that charges customers or their groups’ different prices for the same product or service. Price difference does not depend on production costs or supply costs. Price discrimination is possible if consumers` direct price elasticity of demand is different. Conclusions. The analysis of the natural monopoly`s world pricing practice, including national housing and utilities sector has been carried out. It has been stated that the main methods of monopolistic pricing are: rate of return regulation; price cap regulation (price restrictions); profit-sharing plan with sliding scale; price discrimination; multi-rate tariffs; pricing for different competition forms, compatible with natural monopoly.The obtained findings prove the necessity of modification to the housing and utilities sector’s monopoly market by implementation of competition elements.

Very little is known about the behaviour of housing demand in sub-Saharan housing markets. This ostensibly is due to the dearth of such studies in this region. In this paper the author estimates the parameters of the demand for housing, using data drawn from the city of Ibadan in Nigeria. The empirical analysis, in which housing is viewed as a composite product, reveals that the demand for housing is income inelastic. Specifically, income-elasticity estimates for renters and owners are 0.88 and 0.56, respectively. Furthermore, these income-elasticity estimates were found to be higher than those reported for other African cities.

The Swedish housing market have long been debated for its flaws, inefficiencies and regulations which makes construction expensive and complicated. This have created long queue times for rentals and an ever increasing price level for condominiums, especially in the cities Stockholm, Gothenburg and Malmö. Boverket suggest 558,000 new housing units  eeds to be constructed by 2025 to meet the increasing demand. In this thesis I have applied the standard theory of demand and supply on the Swedish housing market using a standard simultaneous equation model with panel data covering the years 1994 to 2012 over Swedish municipalities. The result shows construction costs have a negative effect on supply while population growth and housing prices have a positive effect. Demand is driven by disposable income and population growth whereas a price of housing has a negative effect. With lower future construction costs housing supply would increase more than if it were to be hold constant. Rising construction cost the coming years would have a negative effect on housing supply.

The aim of this thesis is to extend the empirical research which has been undertaken using the GNP function approach to measuring export supply and import demand responsiveness. Exports and imports are divided into several components and detailed sets of elasticities produced. In the second part o£ the thesis imperfect adjustment is allowed for in the GNP function model. The GNP function framework treats imports as an input to the domestic technology while exports are an output. The aggregate technology can then be represented by a restricted profit function facilitating the derivation of net output supply elasticities. In this study the aggregate net outputs are exports, imports, labour and domestic sales supply. Capital is treated as a fixed input. Time-series of input-output data for Canada are used covering the period 1961 to 1980. In the first model estimated, four export and four import components are included by the use of aggregator functions and a two-stage estimation process. The recently developed Symmetric Generalised McFadden functional form which permits imposition of the correct curvature conditions while retaining flexibility is used at both the aggregator and GNP function levels. The aggregate export own-price supply elasticity was found to be 1.67 in 1970 while the aggregate import own-price demand elasticity was -1.62. Increases in the prices of both imports and labour were found to decrease the supply of exports while exports were found to be complementary to the output of domestic sales supply. The demand for labour was found to be more elastic than in earlier studies and a general trend towards increasing price responsiveness in the Canadian economy was observed. The own-price elasticities for the four export and four import components were stable and of reasonable magnitude. All the export and import components were found to be complementary. To remove the assumption of separability, modelling was extended to two larger disaggregated Generalised McFadden GNP function models containing four export (import) components, aggregate imports (exports), labour and domestic sales as net outputs. Using this procedure more substitution between the export and import components was found. A planning price model whereby the producers' notional price adjusts gradually to actual price changes indicated that imperfect adjustment is particularly important in the traded goods sector. Exports fully adjusted to price changes only over an extended period. Finally, an adjustment costs model was estimated which indicated that the main effect of allowing for imperfect adjustment was on input use. Differences between long-run and short-run export supply and import demand responsiveness were relatively small. Considerable substitutability between labour and capital in the long-run was observed and since labour was also variable in the short-run this produced overshooting of labour demand. An increase in export prices thus caused a large short-run increase in labour demand but in the long-run the capital stock was increased and substituted for much of the short-run labour increase.
Arts, Faculty of
Vancouver School of Economics
Graduate

In Hong Kong, housing prices have increased significantly in recent years. Amongst all the reasons for such significant increase, low interest rate has been recognized as one of the major reasons. Many studies have provided empirical evidence to support the negative relationship between interest rate and housing prices. However, in the US, recent studies (Glaeser, Gottlieb and Gyourko, 2010; Kuttner, 2012) show that the observed effect of interest rate changes on housing prices is much less than that predicted by the standard user cost model. According to the Glaeser et al. (2010), there are three potential explanations for the low housing price sensitivity to interest rate fluctuation. First, increase in land (and therefore housing) supply elasticity can reduce the effects of the demand-side variables, including interest rate. Second, high risk premium for long term mortgage rate in the US makes housing prices less sensitive to changes in interest rates. Third, the long-term mortgage contracts in the US cannot reflect the impact of frequent short term interest rate fluctuation. Among these three potential hypotheses proposed to explain the lower than expected housing price sensitivity to interest rate changes, land supply elasticity is more relevant to Hong Kong. By focusing on Hong Kong’s housing market, this thesis examines the relationship between land supply elasticity and the sensitivity of housing prices towards interest rate changes. When demand shift due to interest rate change, land supply (and therefore housing supply) may respond accordingly to reduce the impact of interest rate change. The more elastic the supply is, the weaker the housing price sensitivity to interest rate may be. Alternatively, housing prices are more sensitive to interest rate change when land supply is inelastic. To be more precisely, this study provides an empirical test on whether land supply elasticity reduces housing price sensitivity towards interest changes. Two approaches are applied to provide clear pictures of housing price sensitivity. First, data from different housing subsectors with different land supply elasticity are used for the empirical tests. The results show that prices of large units in the Hong Kong Island are significantly more sensitive to interest rate change, compared to those of small units in the New Territories. This is consistent with the implication of our hypothesis because new land for building luxurious units in Hong Kong Island is limited while there are relatively more lands available in the New Territories for smaller mass residential units. Second, in Hong Kong, all new land supply comes from the government in the form of leasehold land. Hence, government’s land supply policy has a major impact on land supply elasticity. For example, there was a period of restricted land supply before the handover in 1997, which effectively reduced land supply elasticity. On the other hand, the Application List land sales system adopted by the Hong Kong government from 2000 to 2013 should increase the flexibility in land supply. Therefore, this study makes use of these policy changes as nature experiments to investigate the effect of land supply elasticity on housing price sensitivity towards interest fluctuation. The results show that housing prices are more sensitive to interest rate change during the land supply restriction period and more insensitive when the Application List was used for land sales.
published_or_final_version
Real Estate and Construction
Doctoral
Doctor of Philosophy

A key economic issue for government is the ability to effectively match electricity supply to electricity demand, because of the substantial economic losses in the case of where there is too little supply, or the waste of scarce resources where there is too much supply. In the case of South Africa, this issue, the importance of which was highlighted by the power shortages and associated “rolling blackouts” experience in 2008, has led to the creation of the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) as a means to decide how energy policy will be developed. Recently, however, the IRP 2010 and its subsequent 2013 and 2016 (draft) updates have been criticised as being too optimistic in regards to their projections of economic growth and electricity demand, making the recommendations in these documents to be flawed. Using monthly data from January 1990 to May 2017, together with Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing for cointegration, this paper measures changes in the elasticity of electricity demand as a result of the massive price hikes over the past decade. Thereafter, the implications of changed electricity as well as possibly lower Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in the future for forecasts of possible future demand for electricity are examined. From these revised forecasts, it is possible to make appropriate recommendations in regards to electricity supply policy for South Africa including what possible energy mix is needed as well as the requirements for creating new supply to meet possible future demand. It is concluded that future electricity demand is likely to be much lower than forecast in the IRP 2010 and IRP 2013 documents. The degree of uncertainty in electricity demand growth suggests that large-scale increases in supply capacity taking years to construct, such as coal or nuclear, should be avoided. Small, incremental increases in supply that are able to come on stream swiftly, such as gas, solar and wind power, are likely to be more appropriate for meeting South Africa’s future needs.

The Indian urban rental market is complex and yet ever-changing, with the ups and downs of housing demand playing a fundamental role in the affordability and stability of the market. This paper determines the income and price elasticities of demand using the demand function and Slutsky equation, respectively, for the urban rental market in order to help craft suitable national housing policy. Through this analysis, it is determined that the urban rental price elasticity of demand is -0.93 and the income elasticity is 0.81, suggesting that rental price subsidies and private income taxes are the most effective policy measures to ensure affordability in urban India.

Sustainable Built Environments Senior Capstone Project
Housing is a basic necessity that should be available to everyone at every income level. The danger of becoming a cost burdened household (household spending 30% or more of the area median income on housing costs) is high for all income levels. However, extremely low income households are one of the demographics that are the most susceptible because they have limited affordable housing units available to them at their income level. Addressing this gap between income and affordability in housing is something that is particularly important to ensure that these extremely low income households have enough money for not only housing but other basic necessities such as food. Various incentives and programs are out there to try and provide these extremely low income households with the affordable housing they need however, it does not always happen in the areas that are the most in need. This study will examine the supply and demand of affordable housing for extremely low income households in Tucson, Arizona. The research identifies areas that have clusters of extremely low income households that are cost burdened as well as the affordable housing units available to them. Based on this information funding sources are discussed and recommendations regarding how to implement more affordable housing units in the areas of need are discussed.

A rapid urbanization process facilitated an enormous expansion of the cities and stimulated the development of the urban housing markets in China. The primary purpose of this thesis is to find factors influencing the urban housing prices. Based on the supply and demand theory, I examine housing prices in 95 cities in 2010 related to population growth, wages, manufacturing employment, human capital, pollution, and housing investment using a cross section data analysis. The empirical results indicate that all those factors are significantly related to the housing prices. I focus on population growth, a proxy for the urbanization process, as the core determinant to analyze housing prices in China. In addition, the results also find that cities located in the eastern area have averagely a higher productivity than the ones located in the mid-west, and the higher housing prices in the eastern area are explained by the higher level of population growth and wages.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.