Academic literature on the topic 'Electric household appliances'

With increasing trend of nuclear family, modern society is also showing a gradual increase in single households. Increase in single household leads to increased use of home appliances. Accordingly, the aim of this study was to examine ownership of electric home appliances (home appliance products that use electricity) and energy consumption status and to obtain implications for energy conservation.A survey was conducted / analyzed on 2,250 households, and the following results were obtained. First, ratio of home appliance ownership and number of appliances per household member were examined. Average number of home appliances was 10.6 for single households, 13.8 for 2-person households and 17.5 for households with 6 persons or more. Second, electric rate was found to be 46,000 won for single households and 114,000 won for households with 6 persons or more. Electric rate per member of household was rapidly reduced from <single household> to <4-person household>, showing about 50% conservation. In other words, increase in single households is regarded to have great impact on increase in energy consumption.

Non-intrusive load monitoring, a convenient way to discern the energy consumption of a house, has been studied extensively. However, most research works have been carried out based on a hypothetical condition that each electric appliance has only one running state. This leads to low identification accuracy for multi-state electric appliances. To deal with this problem, a method for identifying the type and state of electric appliances based on a power time series is proposed in this paper. First, to identify the type of appliance, a convolutional neural network model was constructed that incorporated residual modules. Then, a k-means clustering algorithm was applied to calculate the number of states of the appliance. Finally, in order to identify the states of the appliances, different k-means clustering models were established for different multi-state electric appliances. Experimental results show effectiveness of the proposed method in identifying both the type and the running state of electric appliances.

The structure of household electricity consumption depends on multiple factors. The operation of household electrical networks is possible within the allocated power limit and is restricted by the installed automatic disconnection devices of the power supply network. In conditions of limited allocated electrical power, comfortable living is not possible without prioritized power redistribution. A six-level hierarchical system of electrical power distribution for households has been proposed, incorporating variable priorities. By employing prioritized disconnection principles for groups of electrical appliances, the disconnection of limited household power supply can be avoided while maintaining maximum comfort. The proposed electrical connection scheme for household electrical equipment includes priority relays, time relays, and devices for remote disconnection of secondary appliances. When using heat pumps and heat accumulators for heating systems, a limit of 15 kWh is sufficient for comfortable use of any standard electrical appliances in households with an area of up to 150 square meters.

Abstract This paper discusses the control of the electric energy consumption in a household equipped with smart devices. The household consumption pattern is the result of a two-level optimization framework. The scheduling of the electric appliances is determined by the first optimization, receiving Time of Use tariffs proposed by the utility company. The scheduler considers the consumer's preferences on the powering on for each appliance. Secondly a model predictive controller is developed to control the electric heating system based on energy constraints resulting from the appliance scheduling. Simulations show the energy efficiency and an optimized electricity cost of the strategy proposed.

Electricity has a significant impact on human productivity when using a variety of electrical appliances in households. Appliances hooked into the electric network are now causing an increase in electric energy usage in rental homes hence the increases in the user's electricity expenses. Some tenants consume high electrical energy compared to others due to the electrical meters cannot determine the amount of usage by each tenant in the house, all tenants contribute the same universal payment which is not realistic. To offset these costs, a monitoring system for electric energy consumption based on each appliance in a household is formulated, allowing customers to see how much money and energy they are wasting. Different studies have thus far proposed monitoring electric energy consumption in households. However, most of the solutions did not consider the electric energy consumption of individual appliances which is a main problem for the end-users. This paper presents an Internet of Things-based system to provide information to the users through an application on their daily consumption usage updates whether they are online with the presence of a Wi-Fi module. The system has a backup battery to allow giving information in case the power supply is off. Moreover, our system is designed to monitor the real-time energy consumption of individual appliances. Our results show that 90% of end-users that observed the implemented system are capable of monitoring daily electrical consumption hence tenants can put a good budget on their purchase of electrical units.

There is presented an overview of studies devoted to the assessment of 50 Hz electromagnetic the radiations in the indoor environment and their impact on the human body. The classification of household appliances depending on their location has been proposed. The levels of intensity of electric and magnetic fields generated by power-frequency (50 Hz) current from a variety of household appliances have been determined. The ranking of household appliances in dependence on the intensity of electromagnetic the radiations has been made. There was performed an estimation of the intensity of electromagnetic fields in dependence on the regimen of the usage of appliances.

As an important part of the consumption field, household appliances play a key role in China's economic growth. After 30 years of development, China's home appliance industry has made remarkable achievements and occupies an important position in the world's home appliance industry. It has become the largest manufacturing base and consumer market of home appliances in the world, leading international counterparts in cost and quality, with obvious advantages. There is no doubt that the value of an investment in China's home appliance industry is also growing. Therefore, this paper adopts appropriate evaluation methods to study the investment value of three major home appliance companies in China -- Haier Zhijia, Gree Electric, and Changhong Meiling, so that the majority of investors can realize their investment value, and at the same time, it also contributes its own strength to guide investors to make rational value investment and promote the healthy development of Chinese capital market. This paper compares and analyzes their investment value from three aspects: risk ratio, profitability ratio, and market value ratio. Based on the analysis, the conclusion of this paper is that these three companies are basically excellent, have broad investment value, and Haier Zhijia has the most development prospects.

Demand response has been widely developed during recent years to increase efficiency and decrease the cost in the electric power sector by shifting energy use, smoothening the load curve, and thus ensuring benefits for all participating parties. This paper introduces a Demand Response Alert Service (DRAS) that can optimize the interaction between the energy industry parties and end users by sending the minimum number of relatable alerts to satisfy the transformation of the load curve. The service creates appliance models for certain deferrable appliances based on past-usage measurements and prioritizes households according to the probability of the use of their appliances. Several variations of the appliance model are examined with respect to the probabilistic association of appliance usage on different days. The service is evaluated for a peak-shaving scenario when either one or more appliances per household are involved. The results demonstrate a significant improvement compared to a random selection of end users, thus promising increased participation and engagement. Indicatively, in terms of the Area Under the Curve (AUC) index, the proposed method achieves, in all the studied scenarios, an improvement ranging between 41.33% and 64.64% compared to the baseline scenario. In terms of the F1 score index, the respective improvement reaches up to 221.05%.

Simulation of the Stock of Electric Appliances and Calculation of Standby Losses for Latvia Standby losses in households are discussed in this paper. As there was no information on the total volume of standby losses in Latvia, the objective of the study was to calculate: the percentage from the household total electricity bill that goes to standby losses; what are the total costs for these losses; and how much CO2 is produced to generate the amount of electricity that is needed to cover these standby losses. All calculations were conducted for one and for all households in Latvia and the results of one household were compared with an average European household. Finally, the savings potential that can be obtained implementing the Eco-design Directive and other political instruments was examined.

Thesis (Master)--İzmir Institute of Technology, İzmir, 2006
Keywords: Colours, electrical domestic appliances, colour theory, 20th century history of art and design, historic development of domestic appliances. Includes bibliographical references (leaves.86-90).

Orientadores: Gilberto de Martino Jannuzzi, Guilherme de Castilho Queiroz
Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Mecanica
Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-05T03:48:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 SilvaJunior_HerculanoXavierda_M.pdf: 14025317 bytes, checksum: 59bfdc3617f3d431b323aaa39f4fe0a5 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005
Resumo: o objetivo desta dissertação é discutir a aplicação das metodologias de Análise do Custo do Ciclo de Vida (ACCV) e de Análise Estatística como ferramentas para propor padrões de eficiência energética, complementares às etiquetas (selos) voluntárias já existentes, nos refrigeradores brasileiros de uma porta. Um outro objetivo é estudar o papel desses instrumentos (Selos e Padrões de Eficiência Energética) como meios de fornecer subsídios técnicos para o estabelecimento de níveis máximos de consumo de energia elétrica para equipamentos consumidores de eletricidade comercializados no Brasil. As metodologias ACCV e Análise Estatística permitem avaliar os impactos do aumento de eficiência energética nesses equipamentos, resultando em economias (de energia, financeiras, redução na emissão de dióxido de carbono, etc.) importantes para os consumidores e para o País. Os resultados alcançados nesse estudo apresentam importantes dados para subsidiar discussões mais aprofundadas com os fabricantes e governo para estipular padrões mínimos de eficiência energética para os refrigeradores brasileiros. Uma das importantes conclusões é que, apesar de existirem outras metodologias como a Análise Estatística, a ACCV que leva em conta os custos tecnológicos permite que se conheça melhor o mercado (custos, capacidades tecnológicas, etc.) e sugere os melhores Padrões Mínimos de Eficiência Energética (MEPS - Minimum Energy Performance Standards) com o máximo retomo econômico para o consumidor. Contudo, quando não é possível coletar todos os dados exigidos para a aplicação da ACCV, recorre-se a uma análise mais simplificada, ou seja, à metodologia de Análise Estatística
Abstract: The objective ofthis thesis is to discuss the application of the methodologies of Life Cycle Cost Analysis(LCCA) and of Statistical Analysis as tools to propose energy efficiency standards, complementally to the voluntary labels already existent in the Brazilian one-door refrigerators. Another objective is to study the role of these instruments (energy efficiency labels and standards) in order to seek technical subsidies for the establishment of maximum level of electric energy consumption for electrical equipments in Brazil. The LCCA and Statistical Analysis methodologies permit to evaluate the impacts of the energy efficiency increase in electrical equipments commercialized in Brazil, resulting in important savings (energy, financial, carbon dioxide emissions avoided etc) for the country and its citizens. The results of this study offer important data to subsidize deeper discussions with manufacturers and the govemment to stipulate minimum energy efficiency standards for the Brazilian refrigerators. One of the important conclusions is that, even though there are other methodologies, such as the Statistical Analysis which does not take technological costs into account, the LCCA allows to better understand the market (costs, technological capacity etc) and suggests the best MEPS (Minimum Energy Performance Standards) with the maximum economic retum for the consumer. Nevertheless, when it is not possible to collect all the necessary data to apply the LCCA, it can be used a more simplified analysis, such as the Statistical Analysis methodology
Mestrado
Mestre em Planejamento de Sistemas Energéticos

The purpose of this study is to understand Korean consumers' perceptual processes induced by comparative price advertisements. While controlling for intrinsic product cue effects, this study examines the joint effects of extrinsic cues, such as comparative price (regular price /sale price), brand name, country-of-manufacture, and retailer name, on a consumer's perception of a product's price and quality. In examining the effects of advertising contextual cues, this study incorporates consumer perceptual processes, the processes through which the external cues are perceived and compared to or moderated by other variables. The perceptual structure is based on relevant theories and accumulated knowledge from research in this area. Specially adapted theories for this study are the adaptation-level theory, the message learning theory, and the transaction utility theory.
Ph. D.

Abstract Primary Question – How can smart appliance networks integrate human preference to enhance appliance scheduling? To deal with user preference variability, where the physical network interacts with human behavior, the most effective method is a flexible Graphical User Interface (GUI), or dashboard. In this work a dashboard is developed to make a more flexible model, this dashboard can account for variability in load preference, goal preference and appliance specifications, allowing consumers to plan loads on their specific network of household appliances in order to schedule a preferred time and evaluate the costs of certain load timing, given the desire to minimize the cost of electricity, avoid exceeding a peak load with minimal deviations from the user preferred schedule. As a result, uncertainty due to users is mitigated, such that only uncertainty in the load cycles themselves had to be managed, and that management could be done with greater robustness and computational efficiency. Consequently, this provides a model for developing more computationally efficient and robust scheduling patterns for household appliances. In this paper, household appliances are treated as an interdependent network to find satisficing solutions for timing loads to minimize electric cost, peak load, and deviation from the preferred time of scheduling.

Abstract Large energy-intensive domestic appliances like heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning systems, electric water heaters, refrigerators, clothes washers, dishwashers, and dryers can together comprise about 58% of annual residential electricity consumption in the US. Accurate knowledge of domestic appliance-level energy usage patterns can help energy modelers and electric utilities design optimal demand response programs in residential communities. However, while the widespread installation of residential smart meters in the US over the past decade has enabled electric utilities to collect diurnal individual household-level electricity consumption profiles, it is extremely rare to find location-specific, short-interval, disaggregated appliance-level data for individual residences. This study develops a novel methodology to reliably predict future domestic appliance energy consumption profiles based primarily on overall electricity consumption and local weather data. The model is demonstrated using fifteen-minute interval appliance-level empirical energy consumption data for a test-bed of 25 single-family detached homes in Austin, TX from Pecan Street Inc. — a non-profit entity based in Austin. Although the training of our model utilizes historical appliance profiles, the results obtained from this analysis can be used to reliably and accurately predict time-granular appliance-level energy consumption patterns (not only on/off times) using only the overall electricity consumption profile of the household. Thus, this study opens up the possibility for energy modelers to reliably forecast domestic appliance electricity consumption profiles without having appliance-level historical energy usage datasets available.

This paper aims to afford the issue of the role of energy in the early modern home and the relations between energy transition and social consumer behavior in Italy between the XIX and XX centuries. While the history of electric energy has been exploited by economic historians within the fields of studies on the industrial revolution, less attention was paid to the effects of energy transition on households and on their material culture. At the beginning the use of electricity in civil life was above all light, as a symbol of modernity, but Italians in the 1920s still had a deep distrust towards electric tools, electricity was still synonymous of danger. The prices of household appliances were high and their frequent use represented a considerable increase in the domestic expenses. The spread in the use electricity, promoted in other countries by more prosperous income situations, was still minimal in Italy and was considered expression of a model of late economic growth. Only later the mysterious energy, which inspired the writings of Jules Verne, progressively integrated into civil life, becoming an asset irreplaceable.

The Brazilian continental dimensions and diversified natural resources are proportional to the challenges to develop its infrastructure sustainably and supply proper public services to more than 200 million inhabitants. Energy consumption has doubled since 1990, fostered by economic growth and the expansion of middle class. In this context, promote energy efficiency, in a broad sense, is urgent and rational. Brazil has a relatively long history in promoting energy efficiency at final user level. A landmark of this process is the Brazilian Labeling Program, launched in 1984, as direct consequence of high prices of energy at that time. This program was coordinated by the National Institute of Metrology, Standardization and Industrial Quality, which sets standards for evaluation, ranks the performance of energy equipment and imposes a classificatory labeling to inform consumers, with a label similar to other countries. The National Electricity Conservation Program was created in 1985 by MME and is executed by ELETROBRÁS. The energy saving induced by this program in 2013 is equivalent to 2.1% of the total electric energy consumption in the period, corresponding to the annual energy consumption of about 5 million Brazilian households. In 2001, Federal Law 10,295, also known as the Energy Efficiency Law, was approved to reinforce those energy efficiency programs, allowing the Brazilian government to establish Minimum Energy Performance Standards for appliances and energy equipment, prohibiting the commercialization of low efficiency models and promoting the progressive withdrawal of low-efficiency models. According to the National Energy Plan 2030, up to 15.5 GW of electricity generation could be saved as a result of energy efficiency in the next 20 years. The Smart Grids, adopting modern technologies in electricity distribution has been proposed in Brazil improve the quality provided in the low voltage service, reduce losses, and reduce operating costs, among others. Several regulations related to this subject, dealing with grid connection for distributed small-scale generation, the establishment of the 'hourly tariff', with the regulation of the use of PLC; and with the compulsory use of Geographic Information System. Currently, dozens pilot projects on Smart Grids are underway in the country. Two projects are presented in detail: CEMIG and AES Eletropaulo, two Brazilian power utilities.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.