Academic literature on the topic 'Electric networks. Electric waves'

The electric activity of neuron and collective behaviors of neurons can be modulated by autapse, which can be described by self-feedback current in close loop with time delay being considered. Distribution of electric autapses in a local area can introduce heterogeneity in the network and thus traveling wave emits from this area. In this paper, diversity in time delay of electric autapse is considered and collision between emitting waves from different local areas driven by electric autapses under different time delays is observed. In the numerical studies, neurons in the square area with 15×15 (and/or 20×20) nodes are connected electric autapses with different time delays and target-like waves are induced and converted into, spiral waves after continuous collision between wave fronts. It is found that a group of spiral waves can emerge in the network, or coexist with target waves under appropriate coupling intensity due to time delay diversity in autapse and these waves can regulate the collective behaviors of neurons as continuous pacemakers.

Purpose An electrical power distribution network is expected to deliver uninterrupted power supply to the customers. The disruption in power supply occurs whenever there is a fault in the system. Therefore, fast fault detection and its precise location are necessary to restore the power supply. Several techniques are proposed in the past for fault location in distribution network but they have limitations as their fault location accuracy depends on system conditions. The purpose of this paper is to present a travelling wave-based fault location method, which is fast, accurate and independent of system conditions. Design/methodology/approach This paper proposes an effective method for fault detection, classification and location using wavelet analysis of travelling waves for a multilateral distribution network embedded with distributed generation (DG) and electric vehicle (EV) charging load. The wavelet energy entropy (WEE) is used for fault detection and classification purpose, and wavelet modulus maxima (WMM) of aerial mode component is used for faulted lateral identification and exact fault location. Findings The proposed method effectively detects and classifies the faults, and accurately determines the exact fault location in a multilateral distribution network. It is also found that the proposed method is robust and its accuracy is not affected by the presence of distributed generation and electric vehicle charging load in the system. Originality/value Travelling wave based method for fault location is implemented for a multilateral distribution network containing distributed generation and electric vehicle load. For the first time, a fault location method is tested in the presence of EV charging load in distribution network.

This paper presents the potential of an electromagnetic transducer device in a form of audio speaker that is used to capture sound waves to be converted into electricity. It is an interesting concept but less explored by researchers. The objective of the study is to measure the potential of electromagnetic transducer as a way to generate electricity. It deals with the creation of electricity through movement and magnetism. Sound waves can induce movement on the surface which in turn moves the transducer thus creating electricity. The source of sound was coming from an 8-inch subwoofer speaker with a frequency of 80 Hz that was held constant throughout the experiment. Furthermore, using simple linear regression analysis, the study showed that for every linear increase of sound intensity level and distance of the source, there is an exponential increase and an exponential decrease in the voltage root mean square (RMS) respectively. The functionality assessment of the device was statistically analyzed using completely randomized design. It was found that the energy level significantly increased as the sound intensity level increases given a fixed distance of 15 mm from the source. The device could generate enough energy to power small electronics such as light emitting diodes (LED), transistor and resistor.

Objective. Identification of factors of non-productive origin that affect the electromagnetic situation in industrial buildings and the implementation of a sequence of measures to normalize it. Methods. Experimental study of the source of extraneous electromagnetic fields in buildings and structures that can adversely affect workers and sensitive devices in production. To do this, the means of finding such fields were identified and used. The state and description of electric power networks as well as the distribution of the intensity of high-frequency electromagnetic fields are generalized. Electromagnetic safety measures in the production of various purposes are analyzed and presented. Results. Industrial five-storey buildings were inspected for currents in metal structures. The results show that they have significant levels of electric currents in metal structures depending on the riser of the building. It is established that the precondition for the application of safety measures is the analysis of the state of electric power networks, the distribution of the intensity of high-frequency electromagnetic fields, etc. The levels of electromagnetic fields in partially shielded rooms have been experimentally established. Typical dependences of radiation intensity of mobile phones on the signal level from base stations are obtained. The conditions of normalization of the electromagnetic situation in individual rooms and the building as a whole are substantiated. Electromagnetic safety measures have been introduced. Scientific novelty. To minimize the impact of electrical networks on the electromagnetic environment in the building, it is advisable to upgrade it according to the scheme TN-S, or TN-C-S, which reduces the levels of uncompensated electric currents in the network and the corresponding magnetic fields. Practical significance. It is established that: a) it is obligatory to determine the presence of leakage electric currents on grounded bearing structures and engineering networks that generate magnetic fields of hygienically significant voltages; b) reducing the levels of these jets due to technical solutions further reduces the intensity of electro-like processes in metal structures; c) to reduce the levels of high-frequency electromagnetic fields in production facilities, which are formed due to the reflection and re-reflection of electromagnetic waves, it is advisable to use composite shielding materials with controlled absorption and reflection coefficients. This approach will systematize the overall electromagnetic background in the premises and the building as a whole.

Problems of practical implementation of traveling wave fault location caused by the registration of signals of different nature are considered. Analysis of the experimentally recorded traveling waves made it possible to divide them into 4 groups caused by partial discharges, lightning overvoltages, scheduled switching and fault commutations. The network dispatchers only needs the fault commutation information. Traveling waves recorded near the place of their origin have different meanings of diagnostic signs. The magnitude of the pre-alarm noise, the number of pulses in the signal and the duration of the signal are used as diagnostic indicators. These three diagnostic signs allow one to recognize each of the 4 causes of the travelling waves.

In this paper, we investigate the coupled band gaps created by the locking phenomenon between the electric and flexural waves in piezoelectric composite plates. To do that, the distributed piezoelectric materials should be interconnected via a ‘global’ electric network rather than the respective ‘local’ impedance. Once the uncoupled electric wave has the same wavelength and opposite group velocity as the uncoupled flexural wave, the desired coupled band gap emerges. The Wave Finite Element Method (WFEM) is used to investigate the evolution of the coupled band gap with respect to propagation direction and electric parameters. Further, the bandwidth and directionality of the coupled band gap are compared with the LR and Bragg gaps. An indicator termed ratio of single wave (RSW) is proposed to determine the effective band gap for a given deformation (electric, flexural, etc.). The features of the coupled band gap are validated by a forced response analysis. We show that the coupled band gap, despite directional, can be much wider than the LR gap with the same overall inductance. This might lead to an alternative to adaptively create band gaps.

Monthly electric energy consumption forecasting is important for electricity production planning and electric power engineering decision making. Multiwindow moving average algorithm is proposed to decompose the monthly electric energy consumption time series into several periodic waves and a long-term approximately exponential increasing trend. Radial basis function (RBF) artificial neural network (ANN) models are used to forecast the extracted periodic waves. A novel hybrid growth model, which includes a constant term, a linear term, and an exponential term, is proposed to forecast the extracted increasing trend. The forecasting results of the monthly electric energy consumption can be obtained by adding the forecasting values of each model. To test the performance by comparison, the proposed and other three models are used to forecast China's monthly electric energy consumption from January 2011 to December 2012. Results show that the proposed model exhibited the best performance in terms of mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and maximal absolute percentage error (MaxAPE).

Abstract The study presents the analysis of the effects occurring at the propagation of electromagnetic waves within an area containing non-ideal, non-homogenous and absorbing dielectric. The analysed models are connected with housing constructions and include single and double-layered walls made of clay hollow bricks. The influence of the size of holes, the contained clay mass percentage and conductivity of brick on the distribution of electric field is presented. Double-layered wall causes more heterogeneity in distribution of electric field and numerous maxima and minima to compare with singlelayered construction. The presented results refer to the electromagnetic field generated by a wireless communication system (Wi-Fi), operating within the standard frequencies (2.4 GHz and 5 GHz). A FDTD method was used to the analysis of electric field distribution. Also in this paper all formulations of difference method (FDTD) is presented. The possibilities of modifying the described method are indicated too. The obtained values of electric field intensity allow to determining the attenuation coefficient for different variants of the walls. Detailed analysis of influence of different types of building construction will make it possible to better understand the wave phenomena and counteract local fading at planning of wireless networks systems.

Electric arc furnace (EAF) causes the harmonics to impact on the supply network greatly and harmonic elimination is a very important research work for the power quality associated with EAF. In the paper, a fundamental wave amplitude prediction algorithm based on fuzzy neural network for harmonic elimination of EAF current is proposed. The proposed algorithm uses the learning ability of the neural network to refine Takagi-Sugeno type fuzzy rules and the inputs are the average of the current measured value in different time intervals. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm, some experiments are performed to compare the proposed algorithm with the back-propagation neural networks, and the field data collected at an EAF are used in the experiments. Moreover, the measured amplitudes of fundamental waves of field data are obtained by the sliding-window-based discrete Fourier transform on the field data. The experiments results show that the proposed algorithm has higher precision. The real curves also verify that the amplitude of fundamental wave current could be predicted accurately and the harmonic elimination of EAF would be realized based on the proposed algorithm.

As energy saving becomes more and more popular, electric load forecasting has played a more and more crucial role in power management systems in the last few years. Because of the real-time characteristic of electricity and the uncertainty change of an electric load, realizing the accuracy and stability of electric load forecasting is a challenging task. Many predecessors have obtained the expected forecasting results by various methods. Considering the stability of time series prediction, a novel combined electric load forecasting, which based on extreme learning machine (ELM), recurrent neural network (RNN), and support vector machines (SVMs), was proposed. The combined model first uses three neural networks to forecast the electric load data separately considering that the single model has inevitable disadvantages, the combined model applies the multi-objective particle swarm optimization algorithm (MOPSO) to optimize the parameters. In order to verify the capacity of the proposed combined model, 1-step, 2-step, and 3-step are used to forecast the electric load data of three Australian states, including New South Wales, Queensland, and Victoria. The experimental results intuitively indicate that for these three datasets, the combined model outperforms all three individual models used for comparison, which demonstrates its superior capability in terms of accuracy and stability.

Thesis (MTech (Electrical Engineering))--Cape Peninsula University of Technology, 2009
Traditionally, harmonics are ignored in overall efficiency and energy usage studies. However, in the modern era, power systems contain levels of harmonics which can no longer be ignored by engineers, planners, energy conservationists and economists. The directions of power flows have to be considered when harmonics are present in the power network. A methodology and new formulae for individual and overall efficiency and energy usage is developed at each frequency (f1, h and H) and forms the main contribution to research in this field. Two case studies were conducted; a measurement based laboratory experiment set-up and a simulated case study. In the set-up, measurements of current, voltage and power at different points in the network for the 1st, 5th and 7th frequencies were taken. Current and voltage results were used for hand calculations to prove the measured power flows and directions. The measurements were taken with a Fluke 345 three-phase harmonic power quality analyzer. For the simulated case study, a network was investigated using the DIgSILENT and SuperHarm software packages. Their results were compared and it was found that DIgSILENT is the preferred package for power results. It was found that the total harmonic distortion limit for voltage in the simulated network exceeded an acceptable level. The harmonic mitigation solution chosen was to design a passive filter to decrease the distortion by shifting the resonance point of the network. The method to design the passive filter and its impact on efficiency and energy usage is included in the thesis. Unique power flow direction diagrams are developed as part of the methodology and form an essential step in the derivation of the new formulae. Efficiencies, power losses and energy usage at individual and combined frequencies were determined. Results showed the negative effects of harmonics on overall efficiency, energy usage and power losses of the system. The methodology and new formulae developed was found to be effective and their application is recommended for use by industry.

Thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree Master of Technology: Electrical Engineering in the Faculty of Engineering at the Cape Peninsula University of Technology 2013
Harmonic voltages and currents in distribution networks are on the increase in recent times due to the introduction of a proliferation of electronic controlled devices such as variable speed drives. These non-linear devices improve efficiency but distort the supply waveforms. To address the harmonic issues, harmonic filters are used to mitigate distortion levels and prevent damage. These harmonic filters are commonly found at medium voltage levels in power systems. The problem is that knowledge from the design to commissioning stages of these medium voltage harmonic filters are neither well developed nor adequately documented. The aim of this research is to investigate and expound upon the process whilst taking into account all the factors involved throughout the process from bringing such a filter into operation in the real world. Medium voltage harmonic filters are usually the open rack type found in outdoor installations. Capacitors and reactors are the main components used in the construction of such harmonic filters and in some instances resistors are also used. The physical size and spacing of such components determines the construction layout area and how this is done in practice warrants being researched and explained in this thesis. In order to make these factors explicit, a methodology is developed from design, to installation and commissioning and is applied to two networks which are used to prove that the developed methodology is applicable for the different types of harmonic filters designed. The network voltage levels are also different, thus implying that the components will have different design factors. The final arrangements of the harmonic filters are later drawn and shown in three-dimension (3D) as per dimensions. The 3D figures are a further contribution as the design is taken from theory and is ultimately implemented into an installation and construction layout for erection at site. Interviews and surveys are conducted with specialists in industry dealing with harmonic filter applications and the results are analysed as part of implementation of the developed methodology. The design, installation and construction phases are documented and shown to be effective in application and the work disclosed in this thesis will help newcomers to this specialised field and is recommended for use in industry.

In this thesis
analysis, design and implementation of a DC-DC converter with active clamp forward topology is presented. The main objective of this thesis is generating a rectified sinusoidal voltage at the output of the converter. This is accomplished by changing the reference signal of the converter. The converter output is applied to an inverter circuit in order to obtain sinusoidal waveform. The zero crossing points of the converter is detected and the inverter drive signals are generated in order to obtain sinusoidal waveform from the output of the converter. Next, the operation of the DC-DC converter and sinusoidal output inverter coupled performance is investigated with resistive and inductive loads to find out how the proposed topology performs. The design is implemented with an experimental set-up and steady state and dynamic performance of the designed power supply is tested. Finally an evaluation of how better performance can be obtained from this kind of arrangement to obtain a sinusoidal output inverted is thoroughly discussed

Orientador: Ernesto Ruppert Filho
Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Eletrica e de Computação
Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-04T17:39:56Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Villalva_MarceloGradella_M.pdf: 5074196 bytes, checksum: 39f4e09d9f1f624c909a5ee7f2d3fa4d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2005
Resumo: o tema da qualidade de energia elétrica adquiriu grande importância em anos recentes. O número crescente de cargas baseadas em conversores eletrônicos criou a preocupação com a distorção harmônica em sistemas de energia elétrica. Qualidade de energia é um assunto importante tanto para as companhias distribuidoras e geradoras de energia elétrica como para os consumidores. A poluição harmônica pode causar sérios problemas às companhias e aos consumidores. Alguns dos possíveis problemas são a instabilidade na operação do sistema, distorções de tensão, perdas de energia, interferência eletromagnética e ressonâncias perigosas. A utilização de equipamentos para eliminação de harmônicos tornou-se necessária e são versas as soluções possíveis. Tradicionalmente se utilizam Itros passivos do tipo série ou paralelo. Esses Itros resentam como desvantagem suas grandes dimensões, seu custo elevado, elevadas perdas de energia, pouca e cácia, dependendência da interação com parâmetros do sistema e risco de introdução de novas freqüências de ressonância. O desenvolvimento recente da eletrônica de potência e do processamento digital de sinais tornou possível a utilização de Itros ativos de potência, que são condicionadores eletrônicos de energia. Filtros ativos de potência podem ser utilizados para realizar a Itragem de harmônicos em sistemas elétricos, sem os problemas apresentados pelos dispositivos passivos. Filtros ativos série são utilizados para eliminar distorções de tensão e Itros ativos paralelos são usados para eliminar correntes harmônicas originadas por carga não lineares. Esses últimos podem ainda ser usados para corrigir o fator de potência e para equilibrar as correntes de linha em sistemas desbalanceados com quatro os. Este trabalho estuda a aplicação de Itros ativos paralelos a sistemas trifásicos com quatro os. São estudados teorias de potências, métodos de compensação de harmônicos e sistemas de controle. A principal contribuição do trabalho está no emprego de um método seletivo de compensação de correntes baseado em redes neurais adaptativas, além do estudo do emprego de redes neurais no controle de correntes. Esses e outros assuntos foram experimentalmente comprovados com um protótipo de Itro ativo construí do em laboratório
Abstract: Electricity power quality has gained increased importance in the past few years. The growing number of power electronicsbased loads has created a preoccupation about harrnonic distortion in electric systems. Electricity power quality is an important issue both for energy utilities and consumers. Harrnonic poIlution may cause severe problems to electricity utilities and consumer networks such as system instability, voltage distortions, power losses, electromagnetic interference and harrnful resonances. The use ofharrnonic ltering equipment has become necessary and many solutions have been studied. Traditional passive devices such as tuned shunt lters and series reactors present disadvantages such as bulky sizes, high costs, increased losses, smaIl effectiveness, dependence on the parameters of the electric system and yet more risk of resonance with other elements of the network. Recent deve10pments in the major of power electronics and digital processing have made possible the pplication of electronic power conditioners such as series and shunt active lters. Active power lters may be used to overcome the drawbacks of passive devices. Series active power lters are used to reduce voltage distortions of electric systems. Shunt active power lters are used to mitigate harrnonic currents originated by nonlinear loads. The latter may be also used for increasing power factor and for balancing line currents in four-wire systems with unbalanced loads. This work is concerned with the application of shunt active power lters to three-phase four-wire electric systems. Power theories, compensation methods and control systems are discussed. The application of a se1ective compensation method based on adaptive neural networks and the employment of a neural network in the current controlIer are the main contributions of this work. These and other subjects were experimentalIy tested with a prototype of an active. power lter built in laboratory
Mestrado
Energia Eletrica
Mestre em Engenharia Elétrica

Mobile operators passed through many phases in the market over the last several years, since the beginning of mobile broadband services. When the first smart phone was introduced in 2007, it caused a huge increase in the traffic and the users demand kept on increasing. This exponential growth has led to a severe shortage in the available capacity which caused that mobile users don’t have their promised quality of service and coverage. Operators began to put different scenarios for the next-generation mobile networks, putting in consideration the expected increase in the number of users along with their high demand.As a new proposed solution to the scarcity of empty spectrum slots, operating in higher frequency bands (noted as mmwave) emerged as a solution that will provide larger bandwidths with lower prices for the license. Mmwave will provide users with high data rates but on the other hand, has a low penetration rate that can be fixed by increasing the base stations. Another technique for the operators to follow is that they share their own spectrum with each other, by changing the classic way of exploiting the spectrum which proved a low efficiency and high cost, operators can increase their spectrum and coverage with lower cost.To get a clear understanding of how the operators will decide their future strategies, a technical analysis of the new strategies will not be enough, a technical one also will make it clearer and will help the operators in making the decision. The objective of this thesis is to perform a Techno-Economic analysis to get a full image of the system performance. Our system will consist of 2 operators working in mmwave band with antennas equipped with directional beamforming and the base station transmitters will consist of small cells serving outdoor users only. The main question we want to answer is what will be the effect of decreasing the beamwidth on the system performance and when the operators will need to share their spectrum with each other. The performance evaluation will be based on measuring the downlink achievable rate. As we will be performing an economical evaluation, the number of base stations required in each strategy will be an important parameter to evaluate its economic feasibility and cost savings. The different scenarios will include variations of the beamwidth and coordination between the operators with an objective of seeking the best performance along with cost savings. The results should give us a clear look on how the operators will decide for a certain strategy depending on downlink data rate as a KPI and the number of deployed base stations as a limiting factor.

In this paper, we investigate the coupled band gaps created by the locking phenomenon between the electrical and flexural waves in piezoelectric composite plates. To do that, the distributed piezoelectric materials should be interconnected via a ‘global’ electric network rather than the respective ‘local’ impedance. Once the uncoupled electrical wave has the same wavelength and opposite group velocity as the uncoupled flexural wave, the desired coupled band gap emerges. The Wave Finite Element Method (WFEM) is used to investigate the evolution of the coupled band gap with respect to propagation direction and electric parameters. Further, the bandwidth and directionality of the coupled band gap are compared with the LR and Bragg gaps. An indicator termed ratio of single wave (RSW) is proposed to determine the effective band gap for a given deformation (electric, flexural, etc.). We show that the coupled band gap, despite directional, can be much wider than the LR gap with the same overall inductance. This might lead to an alternative to create sub-wavelength band gaps.

Despite growing interest in low-speed automated shuttles, pilot deployments have only just begun in a few places in the U.S., and there is a lack of studies that estimate the impacts of a widespread deployment of automated shuttles designed to supplement existing transit networks. This project estimated the potential impacts of automated shuttles based on a deployment scenario generated for a sample geographic area: Santa Clara County, California. The project identified sample deployment markets within Santa Clara County using a GIS screening exercise; tested the mode share changes of an automated shuttle deployment scenario using BEAM, an open-source beta software developed at the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory to run traffic simulations with MATSim; elaborated the model outputs within the R environment; and then estimated the related impacts. The main findings have been that the BEAM software, despite still being in its beta version, was able to model a scenario with the automated shuttle service: this report illustrates the potential of the software and the lessons learned. Regarding transportation aspects, the model estimated automated shuttle use throughout the county, with a higher rate of use in the downtown San José area. The shuttles would be preferred mainly by people who had been using gasoline-powered ride hail vehicles for A-to-B trips or going to the bus stop, as well as walking trips and a few car trips directed to public transport stops. As a result, the shuttles contributed to a small decrease in emissions of air pollutants, provided a competitive solution for short trips, and increased the overall use of the public transport system. The shuttles also presented a solution for short night trips—mainly between midnight and 2 am—when there are not many options for moving between points A and B. The conclusion is that the automated shuttle service is a good solution in certain contexts and can increase public transit ridership overall.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.