Relevant bibliographies by topics / Elicitation of expert belief

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  1. Journal articles
  2. Dissertations / Theses
  3. Books
  4. Book chapters
  5. Conference papers
  6. Reports

Academic literature on the topic 'Elicitation of expert belief'

Author: Grafiati
Published: 10 March 2023
Last updated: 31 July 2025

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Journal articles on the topic "Elicitation of expert belief"

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RENOOIJ, SILJA. "Probability elicitation for belief networks: issues to consider." Knowledge Engineering Review 16, no. 3 (2001): 255–69. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0269888901000145.

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Upon assessing probabilities for Bayesian belief networks, the knowledge and practical experience of experts is often the only available source of probabilistic information. It is important to realise that issues concerning human capabilities with respect to making judgements come into play when relying on experts for probability elicitation. A number of methods for the elicitation of probabilities are known from the field of decision analysis. These methods try, to some extent, to deal with those issues. I present here an overview of the issues to consider when relying on expert judgements an
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Phillipson, Frank, Peter Langenkamp, and Reinder Wolthuis. "Alternative Initial Probability Tables for Elicitation of Bayesian Belief Networks." Mathematical and Computational Applications 26, no. 3 (2021): 54. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/mca26030054.

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Bayesian Belief Networks are used in many fields of application. Defining the conditional dependencies via conditional probability tables requires the elicitation of expert belief to fill these tables, which grow very large quickly. In this work, we propose two methods to prepare these tables based on a low number of input parameters using specific structures and one method to generate the table using probability tables of each relation of a child node with a certain parent. These tables can be used further as a starting point for elicitation.
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COUPÉ, VEERLE M. H., LINDA C. VAN DER GAAG, and J. DIK F. HABBEMA. "Sensitivity analysis: an aid for belief-network quantification." Knowledge Engineering Review 15, no. 3 (2000): 215–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0269888900003027.

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When building a Bayesian belief network, usually a large number of probabilities have to be assessed by experts in the domain of application. Experience shows that experts are often reluctant to assess all probabilities required, feeling that they are unable to give assessments with a high level of accuracy. We argue that the elicitation of probabilities from experts can be supported to a large extent by iteratively performing sensitivity analyses of the belief network in the making, starting with rough, initial assessments. Since it gives insight into which probabilities require a high level
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Bojke, Laura, Marta Soares, Karl Claxton, et al. "Developing a reference protocol for structured expert elicitation in health-care decision-making: a mixed-methods study." Health Technology Assessment 25, no. 37 (2021): 1–124. http://dx.doi.org/10.3310/hta25370.

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Background Many decisions in health care aim to maximise health, requiring judgements about interventions that may have higher health effects but potentially incur additional costs (cost-effectiveness framework). The evidence used to establish cost-effectiveness is typically uncertain and it is important that this uncertainty is characterised. In situations in which evidence is uncertain, the experience of experts is essential. The process by which the beliefs of experts can be formally collected in a quantitative manner is structured expert elicitation. There is heterogeneity in the existing
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Kreinovich, Vladik. "INTERVAL METHODS IN KNOWLEDGE REPRESENTATION." International Journal of Uncertainty, Fuzziness and Knowledge-Based Systems 04, no. 05 (1996): 467–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0218488596000433.

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In this issues, we continue to publish abstracts and reviews of recents papers on interval methods in knowledge representation. In knowledge representation, intervals are used for two main purposes: • to describe durations of events; and • to describe uncertainty of measurement results and expert estimates of different quantities; often, we do not know the exact value of a quantity, but we know its lower and upper bounds (e.g., we may not know the exact value of someone's weight, but we may know that this weight is in between 140 and 160 pounds). An important case of this uncertainty occurs in
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Anuar, Nadia, Ahmad Mazli Muhammad, and Zainudin Awang. "An Exploratory Factor Analysis of Elicited Students’ Salient Beliefs Toward Critical Reading." International Journal of Modern Languages And Applied Linguistics 4, no. 4 (2020): 101. http://dx.doi.org/10.24191/ijmal.v4i4.11288.

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Critical reading was named a key aspiration in the Malaysian Education Blueprint (2015-2025) and is an essential skill students must acquire. However, an increased number of students was reported to demonstrate poor critical reading performance at the workplace. Thus, Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) was utilised to examine students’ beliefs critical reading which encompass behavioural belief (advantages and disadvantages of critical reading), normative belief (identification of people who approve participating in critical reading), and control belief (difficulties in critical reading). A thr
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Carvalho, Arthur. "A Note on Sandroni-Shmaya Belief Elicitation Mechanism." Journal of Prediction Markets 10, no. 2 (2017): 14–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.5750/jpm.v10i2.1225.

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Incentive-compatible methods for eliciting beliefs, such as proper scoring rules, often rely on strong assumptions about how humans behave when making decisions under risk and uncertainty. For example, standard proper scoring rules assume that humans are risk neutral, an assumption that is often violated in practice. Under such an assumption, proper scoring rules induce honest reporting of beliefs, in a sense that experts maximize their expected scores from a proper scoring rule by honestly reporting their beliefs.Sandroni and Shmaya [Economic Theory Bulletin, volume 1, issue 1, 2013] suggeste
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Bryant, Andrew, Michael Grayling, Shaun Hiu, et al. "Residual disease after primary surgery for advanced epithelial ovarian cancer: expert elicitation exercise to explore opinions about potential impact of publication bias in a planned systematic review and meta-analysis." BMJ Open 12, no. 8 (2022): e060183. http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2021-060183.

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ObjectivesWe consider expert opinion and its incorporation into a planned meta-analysis as a way of adjusting for anticipated publication bias. We conduct an elicitation exercise among eligible British Gynaecological Cancer Society (BGCS) members with expertise in gynaecology.DesignExpert elicitation exercise.SettingBGCS.ParticipantsMembers of the BGCS with expertise in gynaecology.MethodsExperts were presented with details of a planned prospective systematic review and meta-analysis, assessing overall survival for the extent of excision of residual disease (RD) after primary surgery for advan
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Vijayan, Vimal, Sanjay K. Chaturvedi, and Ritesh Chandra. "A failure interaction model for multicomponent repairable systems." Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability 234, no. 3 (2020): 470–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1748006x19897828.

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Modeling of stochastic dependency among components in a repairable system is still a challenging task when dealing with the maintenance of multicomponent systems. With the help of stochastic dependency information, failure of a component brings attention to the components having strong interactions with the failed component. With this information, one can plan the maintenance of components in a better way. Since a change in failure probability of a component (due to deterioration or failure of a component in a given time interval) influences the failure probabilities of other components in the
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Schlag, Karl H., and Joël J. van der Weele. "A method to elicit beliefs as most likely intervals." Judgment and Decision Making 10, no. 5 (2015): 456–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1930297500005593.

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AbstractWe show how to elicit the beliefs of an expert in the form of a “most likely interval”, a set of future outcomes that are deemed more likely than any other outcome. Our method, called the Most Likely Interval elicitation rule (MLI), asks the expert for an interval and pays according to how well the answer compares to the actual outcome. We show that the MLI performs well in economic experiments, and satisfies a number of desirable theoretical properties such as robustness to the risk preferences of the expert.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Elicitation of expert belief"

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Briggs, Rachael (Rachael Amy). "Partial belief and expert testimony." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/47829.

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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Linguistics and Philosophy, 2009.<br>Includes bibliographical references (p. [83]-86).<br>My dissertation investigates two questions from within a partial belief framework: First, when and how should deference to experts or other information sources be qualified? Second, how closely is epistemology related to other philosophical fields, such as metaphysics, ethics, and decision theory? Chapter 1 discusses David Lewis's "Big Bad Bug", an argument for the conclusion that the Principal Principle-the thesis that one's credence in a p
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Selvidge, Jordan R. "Managing One-to-One Initiatives: Implementation Analysis Through Expert Elicitation." Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University, 2016. https://dc.etsu.edu/etd/3143.

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A qualitative phenomenological study was conducted to identify and analyze issues in the implementation of one-to-one computing initiatives and provide solutions for improvement. An understanding of the implementation process was developed through the analysis of data collected through 27 interviews with teacher experts in the field who have worked with the implementation of one-to-one programs. Teachers were purposely selected from the following groups: those who were completing their first year of teaching, those who had between two and ten years of teaching experience, and those who had ele
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Schneider, Mark. "Studies in risk perception and financial literacy: applications using subjective belief elicitation." Doctoral thesis, Faculty of Commerce, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/30349.

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The concept of literacy has grown from “reading literacy” to now encompass many different domain-specific topics and skill sets, such as health literacy, financial literacy, and computer literacy. The way literacy is talked about, examined, measured, and communicated has also evolved. Literacy measures began as a simple metric of counting the number of individuals in a country that could read and dividing that count by the total population to compute the percentage of literate individuals. However, this approach ignores situations in which an illiterate person has access to a literate person t
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West, Daune. "Towards a subjective knowledge elicitation methodology for the development of expert systems." Thesis, University of Portsmouth, 1991. https://researchportal.port.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/towards-a-subjective-knowledge-elicitation-methodology-for-the-development-of-expert-systems(d63c460a-f71c-492d-9150-15c31becdb5b).html.

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Alkhairy, Ibrahim H. "Designing and Encoding Scenario-based Expert Elicitation for Large Conditional Probability Tables." Thesis, Griffith University, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/390794.

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This thesis focuses on the general problem of asking experts to assess the likelihood of many scenarios, when there is insufficient time to ask about all possible scenarios. The challenge addressed here is one of experimental design: How to choose which scenarios are assessed; How to use that limited data to extrapolate information about the scenarios that remain unasked? In a mathematical sense, this problem can be constructed as a problem of expert elicitation, where experts are asked to quantify conditional probability tables (CPTs). Experts may be relied on, for example in the situation wh
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Akram, Muhammad Farooq. "A methodology for uncertainty quantification in quantitative technology valuation based on expert elicitation." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/47717.

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The management of technology portfolios is an important element of aerospace system design. New technologies are often applied to new product designs to ensure their competitiveness at the time they are introduced to market. The future performance of yet-to-be designed components is inherently uncertain, necessitating subject matter expert knowledge, statistical methods and financial forecasting. Estimates of the appropriate parameter settings often come from disciplinary experts, who may disagree with each other because of varying experience and background. Due to inherent uncertain nature o
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Iamsumang, Chonlagarn. "A framework for nuclear facility safeguard evaluation using probabilistic methods and expert elicitation." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/76528.

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Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Nuclear Science and Engineering, 2010.<br>Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.<br>Includes bibliographical references (p. 99-100).<br>With the advancement of the next generation of nuclear fuel cycle facilities, concerns of the effectiveness of nuclear facility safeguards have been increasing due to the inclusion of highly enriched material and reprocessing capability into fuel cycles. Therefore, an extensive and quantitative safeguard evaluation is required in order for the decision makers to have a consistent measure to verify s
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Okoli, Justin. "Expert knowledge elicitation in the firefighting domain and the implications for training novices." Thesis, Middlesex University, 2016. http://eprints.mdx.ac.uk/22940/.

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Background/Purpose: Experienced fireground commanders are often required to make important decisions in time-pressured and dynamic environments that are characterized by a wide range of task constraints. The nature of these environments is such that firefighters are sometimes faced with novel situations that seek to challenge their expertise and therefore necessitate making knowledge-based as opposed to rule-based decisions. The purpose of this study is to elicit the tacitly held knowledge which largely underpinned expert competence when managing non-routine fire incidents. Design/Methodology/
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Burge, Janet E. "Knowledge Elicitation for Design Task Sequencing Knowledge." Digital WPI, 1999. https://digitalcommons.wpi.edu/etd-theses/1062.

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"There are many types of knowledge involved in producing a design (the process of specifying a description of an artifact that satisfies a collection of constraints [Brown, 1992]). Of these, one of the most crucial is the design plan: the sequence of steps taken to create the design (or a portion of the design). A number of knowledge elicitation methods can be used to obtain this knowledge from the designer. The success of the elicitation depends on the match between the knowledge elicitation method used and the information being sought. The difficulty with obtaining design plan informatio
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Zampa, Nicholas Joseph. "Structured Expert Judgment Elicitation of Use Error Probabilities for Drug Delivery Device Risk Assessment." Thesis, The George Washington University, 2018. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10841440.

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<p> In the pharmaceutical industry, estimating the probability of occurrence for use errors and use-error-causes (here forth referred to as use error probabilities) when developing drug delivery devices is hindered by a lack of data, ultimately limiting the ability to conduct robust usability risk assessments. A lack of reliable data is the result of small sample sizes and challenges simulating actual use environments in simulated use studies, compromising the applicability of observed use error rates. Further, post-market surveillance databases and internal complaint databases are limited in
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Books on the topic "Elicitation of expert belief"

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D, Diaper, ed. Knowledge elicitation: Principles, techniques, and applications. E. Horwood, 1989.

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Ayyub, Bilal M. Elicitation of expert opinions for uncertainty and risks. CRC Press, 2001.

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Kornfeld, Ari. Belief-network expert systems. SRI International, 1990.

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Swackhamer, Deborah Liebl, and James K. Hammit. Review of EPA's Draft expert elicitation task force white paper. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of the Administrator, Science Advisory Board, 2010.

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Peter, Gärdenfors, ed. Belief revision. Cambridge University Press, 1992.

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Grdenfors, Peter. Belief Revision. Cambridge University Press, 1992.

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West, Daune. Towards a subjective knowledge elicitation methodology for the development of expert systems. Portsmouth Polytechnic, School of Information Science, 1991.

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United States. Congress. Office of Technology Assessment. and Decision Science Consortium Inc, eds. Personalized decision analysis as an expert elicitation tool: An instructive experience in information security policy. The Office, 1985.

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J, Bonano Evaristo, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards. Division of High-Level Waste Management., Sandia National Laboratories, and Sandia Corporation, eds. Elicitation and use of expert judgement in performance assessment for high-level radioactive waste repositories. Division of High-Level Waste Management, Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 1990.

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J, Bonano E., U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Division of High-Level Waste Management., Sandia National Laboratories, and Sandia Corporation, eds. Elicitation and use of expert judgement in performance assessment for high-level radioactive waste repositories. Division of High-Level Waste Management, Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, 1990.

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Book chapters on the topic "Elicitation of expert belief"

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Hoang, Tuan Nha, Tien Tuan Dao, and Marie-Christine Ho Ba Tho. "A Method for Uncertainty Elicitation of Experts Using Belief Function." In Modern Approaches for Intelligent Information and Database Systems. Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-76081-0_4.

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Soares, Marta O., and Laura Bojke. "Expert Elicitation to Inform Health Technology Assessment." In Elicitation. Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4_18.

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Bolger, Fergus. "The Selection of Experts for (Probabilistic) Expert Knowledge Elicitation." In Elicitation. Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4_16.

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Gottschalk, Petter, and Lars Gunnesdal. "Expert Elicitation for Estimation." In White-Collar Crime in the Shadow Economy. Springer International Publishing, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-75292-1_4.

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Merrick, Jason R. W., and Laura A. Albert. "Expert Judgment Based Nuclear Threat Assessment for Vessels Arriving in the US." In Elicitation. Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4_19.

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Werner, Christoph, Anca M. Hanea, and Oswaldo Morales-Nápoles. "Eliciting Multivariate Uncertainty from Experts: Considerations and Approaches Along the Expert Judgement Process." In Elicitation. Springer International Publishing, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65052-4_8.

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Leplat, Jacques. "The Elicitation of Expert Knowledge." In NATO ASI Series. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-50329-0_7.

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Dean, Geoff. "Research Project: Expert Elicitation Study." In Neurocognitive Risk Assessment for the Early Detection of Violent Extremists. Springer International Publishing, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-06719-3_4.

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Yoe, Charles. "Characterizing Uncertainty through Expert Elicitation." In Principles of Risk Analysis. CRC Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1201/9780429021121-14.

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Sagheb-Tehrani, Mehdi. "Knowledge Elicitation: Towards its Transparency." In Database and Expert Systems Applications. Springer Vienna, 1992. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7091-7557-6_96.

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Conference papers on the topic "Elicitation of expert belief"

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K, Kirubanandham, Suriyaprakash S, Sabareeswaran G, Sanjay P, and Shalini A. "Deep Belief Network-based Decentralized Secure, Lightweight Data Auditing Scheme for Streaming Outsourcing Data." In 2024 4th International Conference on Sustainable Expert Systems (ICSES). IEEE, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1109/icses63445.2024.10763348.

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Trethewey, K. R., and P. R. Roberge. "A Model of Corrosion Expertise." In CORROSION 1996. NACE International, 1996. https://doi.org/10.5006/c1996-96360.

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Abstract This paper describes an approach to reduce the complexity of knowledge engineering projects in corrosion by developing an object-oriented framework to guide the elicitation and organization of corrosion and materials engineering expertise. A model is presented into which corrosion expertise can be structured in a qualitative and quantitative way. This model could be used as the framework for a corrosion management expert system.
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Trethewey, K. R., S. Phillips, and P. R. Roberge. "Development of a Knowledge Elicitation Shell for Materials Performance Evaluation in Seawater Systems." In CORROSION 1994. NACE International, 1994. https://doi.org/10.5006/c1994-94378.

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Abstract It has been shown that people have a considerable aggravating influence on system failure by corrosion. In the 21st century, when the emphasis is expected to fall firmly on conservation of valuable resources and more economic use of energy - issues likely to be governed by law - KBSs will have a considerable role to play in reducing the incidence of premature failure by corrosion. Knowledge elicitation is a precursor to the construction of knowledge based systems (KBSs) but represents a serious difficulty for software developers. The complex transformation of lifetime industrial exper
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Graham-Jones, P. J., and B. G. Mellor. "The Development of a Generic Failure Analysis Expert System Based on Case-Eased Reasoning." In CORROSION 1996. NACE International, 1996. https://doi.org/10.5006/c1996-96372.

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Abstract Failure analysis is a complex task, requiring considerable knowledge and skill, some of which might be outside the experience of the engineer concerned. To help the engineer, a case-based reasoning tool (Failure Analysis Diagnostic Expert System) is being developed, using a systemic approach to failure diagnostic problems, which not only interactively identifies the failure modes and the critical factors in the design, processing, and end use which cause failures to originate but also suggests methods to improve the reliability of the products. This approach applies a Windows artifici
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Graham-Jones, P. J., and B. G. Mellor. "Issues Involved in Developing a Failure Analysis Expert System for Metallic Materials Using Rule and Case-Based Reasoning." In CORROSION 1997. NACE International, 1997. https://doi.org/10.5006/c1997-97320.

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Abstract Several issues are discussed to aid the development of rule and case-based reasoning expert systems (E.S.) for the failure analysis of metallic materials. This approach applies to generic failure (fatigue, corrosion, deformation, erosion, etc.) diagnosis and focuses on the structure, planning and elicitation of failure analysis knowledge related to metallic components. An effective failure analysis E.S., based solely on rules or past case histories, entails either a complex set of rules or many cases. The best methodology is a hybrid approach of rules and case histories as this mimics
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Profir, Bogdan, Murat Hakki Eres, James Scanlan, Michael Moss, and Ron Bates. "Uncertainty Quantification via Elicitation of Expert Judgements." In 16th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations Conference. American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.2514/6.2016-3459.

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"Pragmatic Expert Elicitation for Defence Capability Analysis." In 22nd International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand (MSSANZ), Inc., 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.36334/modsim.2017.d1.donohoo.

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Koonchanok, Ratanond, Gauri Yatindra Tawde, Gokul Ragunandhan Narayanasamy, Shalmali Walimbe, and Khairi Reda. "Visual Belief Elicitation Reduces the Incidence of False Discovery." In CHI '23: CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems. ACM, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3544548.3580808.

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Ayyub, Bilal M. "Uncertainties in Expert-Opinion Elicitation for Risk Studies." In Ninth United Engineering Foundation Conference on Risk-Based Decisionmaking in Water Resources. American Society of Civil Engineers, 2001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/40577(306)10.

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Soare, Marta, Muhammad Ammad-Ud-Din, and Samuel Kaski. "Regression with n→1 by Expert Knowledge Elicitation." In 2016 15th IEEE International Conference on Machine Learning and Applications (ICMLA). IEEE, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/icmla.2016.0131.

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Reports on the topic "Elicitation of expert belief"

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Danz, David, Lise Vesterlund, and Alistair Wilson. Belief Elicitation: Limiting Truth Telling with Information on Incentives. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w27327.

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Coppersmith, K. J. Unsaturated Zone Flow Model Expert Elicitation Project. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/762969.

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Baca, Elena, Ritu Treisa Philip, David Greene, and Hoyt Battey. Expert Elicitation for Wave Energy LCOE Futures. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1885577.

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Coppersmith, Kevin J., and Roseanne C. Perman. Saturated Zone Flow and Transport Expert Elicitation Project. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/763124.

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Engel, David W., and Angela C. Dalton. CCSI Risk Estimation: An Application of Expert Elicitation. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), 2012. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/1064598.

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Risk Assessment Unit. Animal product imports project: public health expert opinion elicitation. Food Standards Agency, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.46756/sci.fsa.aye787.

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An expert opinion elicitation exercise was held in order to estimate the relative public health risk associated with 19 categories of imported Products of Animal Origin (POAO) in terms of relevant microbiological pathogens, biotoxins and chemical contaminants.
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Ronald L. Boring, David Gertman, Jeffrey Joe, et al. Simplified Expert Elicitation Procedure for Risk Assessment of Operating Events. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), 2005. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/911228.

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Bratzel, D. R. Flammable gas project expert elicitation results for Hanford Site double-shell tanks. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/348862.

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K.J. Coppersmith, R.C. Perman, and R.R. Youngs. Lessons Learned- The Use of Formal Expert Elicitation in Probablistic Seismic Hazard. Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/893709.

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Bratzel, D. R. Flammable gas double shell tank expert elicitation presentations (Part A and Part B). Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI), 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.2172/10148313.

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