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Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Elicitation of expert belief'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 10 March 2023

Last updated: 31 July 2025

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1

Briggs, Rachael (Rachael Amy). "Partial belief and expert testimony." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/47829.

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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Linguistics and Philosophy, 2009.<br>Includes bibliographical references (p. [83]-86).<br>My dissertation investigates two questions from within a partial belief framework: First, when and how should deference to experts or other information sources be qualified? Second, how closely is epistemology related to other philosophical fields, such as metaphysics, ethics, and decision theory? Chapter 1 discusses David Lewis's "Big Bad Bug", an argument for the conclusion that the Principal Principle-the thesis that one's credence in a p

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Selvidge, Jordan R. "Managing One-to-One Initiatives: Implementation Analysis Through Expert Elicitation." Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University, 2016. https://dc.etsu.edu/etd/3143.

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A qualitative phenomenological study was conducted to identify and analyze issues in the implementation of one-to-one computing initiatives and provide solutions for improvement. An understanding of the implementation process was developed through the analysis of data collected through 27 interviews with teacher experts in the field who have worked with the implementation of one-to-one programs. Teachers were purposely selected from the following groups: those who were completing their first year of teaching, those who had between two and ten years of teaching experience, and those who had ele

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Schneider, Mark. "Studies in risk perception and financial literacy: applications using subjective belief elicitation." Doctoral thesis, Faculty of Commerce, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/11427/30349.

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The concept of literacy has grown from “reading literacy” to now encompass many different domain-specific topics and skill sets, such as health literacy, financial literacy, and computer literacy. The way literacy is talked about, examined, measured, and communicated has also evolved. Literacy measures began as a simple metric of counting the number of individuals in a country that could read and dividing that count by the total population to compute the percentage of literate individuals. However, this approach ignores situations in which an illiterate person has access to a literate person t

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4

West, Daune. "Towards a subjective knowledge elicitation methodology for the development of expert systems." Thesis, University of Portsmouth, 1991. https://researchportal.port.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/towards-a-subjective-knowledge-elicitation-methodology-for-the-development-of-expert-systems(d63c460a-f71c-492d-9150-15c31becdb5b).html.

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5

Alkhairy, Ibrahim H. "Designing and Encoding Scenario-based Expert Elicitation for Large Conditional Probability Tables." Thesis, Griffith University, 2020. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/390794.

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This thesis focuses on the general problem of asking experts to assess the likelihood of many scenarios, when there is insufficient time to ask about all possible scenarios. The challenge addressed here is one of experimental design: How to choose which scenarios are assessed; How to use that limited data to extrapolate information about the scenarios that remain unasked? In a mathematical sense, this problem can be constructed as a problem of expert elicitation, where experts are asked to quantify conditional probability tables (CPTs). Experts may be relied on, for example in the situation wh

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Akram, Muhammad Farooq. "A methodology for uncertainty quantification in quantitative technology valuation based on expert elicitation." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/47717.

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The management of technology portfolios is an important element of aerospace system design. New technologies are often applied to new product designs to ensure their competitiveness at the time they are introduced to market. The future performance of yet-to-be designed components is inherently uncertain, necessitating subject matter expert knowledge, statistical methods and financial forecasting. Estimates of the appropriate parameter settings often come from disciplinary experts, who may disagree with each other because of varying experience and background. Due to inherent uncertain nature o

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Iamsumang, Chonlagarn. "A framework for nuclear facility safeguard evaluation using probabilistic methods and expert elicitation." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/76528.

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Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Nuclear Science and Engineering, 2010.<br>Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.<br>Includes bibliographical references (p. 99-100).<br>With the advancement of the next generation of nuclear fuel cycle facilities, concerns of the effectiveness of nuclear facility safeguards have been increasing due to the inclusion of highly enriched material and reprocessing capability into fuel cycles. Therefore, an extensive and quantitative safeguard evaluation is required in order for the decision makers to have a consistent measure to verify s

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Okoli, Justin. "Expert knowledge elicitation in the firefighting domain and the implications for training novices." Thesis, Middlesex University, 2016. http://eprints.mdx.ac.uk/22940/.

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Background/Purpose: Experienced fireground commanders are often required to make important decisions in time-pressured and dynamic environments that are characterized by a wide range of task constraints. The nature of these environments is such that firefighters are sometimes faced with novel situations that seek to challenge their expertise and therefore necessitate making knowledge-based as opposed to rule-based decisions. The purpose of this study is to elicit the tacitly held knowledge which largely underpinned expert competence when managing non-routine fire incidents. Design/Methodology/

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9

Burge, Janet E. "Knowledge Elicitation for Design Task Sequencing Knowledge." Digital WPI, 1999. https://digitalcommons.wpi.edu/etd-theses/1062.

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"There are many types of knowledge involved in producing a design (the process of specifying a description of an artifact that satisfies a collection of constraints [Brown, 1992]). Of these, one of the most crucial is the design plan: the sequence of steps taken to create the design (or a portion of the design). A number of knowledge elicitation methods can be used to obtain this knowledge from the designer. The success of the elicitation depends on the match between the knowledge elicitation method used and the information being sought. The difficulty with obtaining design plan informatio

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Zampa, Nicholas Joseph. "Structured Expert Judgment Elicitation of Use Error Probabilities for Drug Delivery Device Risk Assessment." Thesis, The George Washington University, 2018. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=10841440.

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<p> In the pharmaceutical industry, estimating the probability of occurrence for use errors and use-error-causes (here forth referred to as use error probabilities) when developing drug delivery devices is hindered by a lack of data, ultimately limiting the ability to conduct robust usability risk assessments. A lack of reliable data is the result of small sample sizes and challenges simulating actual use environments in simulated use studies, compromising the applicability of observed use error rates. Further, post-market surveillance databases and internal complaint databases are limited in

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11

Aucher, Guillaume, and n/a. "Perspectives on belief and change." University of Otago. Department of Computer Science, 2008. http://adt.otago.ac.nz./public/adt-NZDU20081003.115428.

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This thesis is about logical models of belief (and knowledge) representation and belief change. This means that we propose logical systems which are intended to represent how agents perceive a situation and reason about it, and how they update their beliefs about this situation when events occur. These agents can be machines, robots, human beings. . . but they are assumed to be somehow autonomous. The way a fixed situation is perceived by agents can be represented by statements about the agents� beliefs: for example �agent A believes that the door of the room is open� or �agent A believes th

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Henshall, Anthony Wilton. "An investigation into the possibility of using sociological research methodologies for the elicitation of tacit knowledge for building knowledge intensive systems." Thesis, University of Salford, 1995. http://usir.salford.ac.uk/14775/.

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The research notes that deficiencies in knowledge acquisition are impeding the advancement of Knowledge Intensive Systems (KIS), such as Expert Systems (ES) and Decision Support Systems (DSS). Humphreys (1989) maintains the problem is not the quantity of knowledge collected but its quality. Humphreys (1989) contends that 'Knowledge' has too narrow a definition in knowledge acquisition dogma and a wider definition of 'knowledge' capable of handling 'procedural uncertainty' is required. 'Tacit knowledge' by which Polanyi (1967) contends individuals interpret the world appears a fruitful area to

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Islam, Raihan Ul. "Wireless Sensor Network Based Flood Prediction Using Belief Rule Based Expert System." Licentiate thesis, Luleå tekniska universitet, Datavetenskap, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-66415.

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Flood is one of the most devastating natural disasters. It is estimated that flooding from sea level rise will cause one trillion USD to major coastal cities of the world by the year 2050. Flood not only destroys the economy, but it also creates physical and psychological sufferings for the human and destroys infrastructures. Disseminating flood warnings and evacuating people from the flood-affected areas help to save human life. Therefore, predicting flood will help government authorities to take necessary actions to evacuate humans and arrange relief for the people. This licentiate thesis fo

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Gilson, Robert. "Minimizing input acquisition costs in a Bayesian belief network-based expert system /." Thesis, Connect to this title online; UW restricted, 1997. http://hdl.handle.net/1773/8763.

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Werner, Christoph. "Structured expert judgement for dependence in probabilistic modelling of uncertainty : advances along the dependence elicitation process." Thesis, University of Strathclyde, 2018. http://digitool.lib.strath.ac.uk:80/R/?func=dbin-jump-full&object_id=30519.

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In decision and risk analysis problems, modelling uncertainty probabilistically provides key insights and information for decision makers. A common challenge is that uncertainties are typically not isolated but interlinked which introduces complex (and often unexpected) effects on the model output. Therefore, dependence needs to be taken into account and modelled appropriately if simplifying assumptions, such as independence, are not sensible. Similar to the case of univariate uncertainty, relevant historical data to quantify a (dependence) model are often lacking or too costly to obtain. This

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Taalab, Khaled Paul. "Modelling soil bulk density using data-mining and expert knowledge." Thesis, Cranfield University, 2013. http://dspace.lib.cranfield.ac.uk/handle/1826/8273.

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Data about the spatial variation of soil attributes is required to address a great number of environmental issues, such as improving water quality, flood mitigation, and determining the effects of the terrestrial carbon cycle. The need for a continuum of soils data is problematic, as it is only possible to observe soil attributes at a limited number of locations, beyond which, prediction is required. There is, however, disparity between the way in which much of the existing information about soil is recorded and the format in which the data is required. There are two primary methods of represe

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Pestana, Marco Aurélio. "Elicitação de especialistas em estudos de confiabilidade e análise de risco." Universidade de São Paulo, 2017. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/3/3135/tde-12072017-080326/.

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O propósito desta dissertação é apresentar o uso da opinião de especialistas e outras questões relevantes acerca do assunto na avaliação das incertezas em estudos de análise de risco e confiabilidade, com apresentação de um estudo de caso prático. Em estudos de confiabilidade umas das principais preocupações está na determinação das frequências de ocorrência dos eventos e seu comportamento ao longo do tempo. Muitas vezes, os dados de frequência estão obsoletos, não estão disponíveis ou mesmo, não são suficientes para se avaliar a probabilidade de ocorrência de eventos. Nestes casos, a elicitaç

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Heltne, Mari Montri. "Knowledge-based support for management of end user computing resources: Issues in knowledge elicitation and flexible design." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1988. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/184429.

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Effective resource management requires tools and decision aides to help determine users' needs and appropriate assignment. The goal of this research was to design, implement, and test technological tools that, even in a dynamic environment, effectively support the matching of users and resources. The context of the investigation is the Information Center, the structure used to manage and control the computing resources demanded by end users. The major contributions of the research lie in two areas: (1) the development and use of a knowledge acquisition called Resource Attribute Charts (RAC), w

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Fooladvandi, Farzad. "Signature-based activity detection based on Bayesian networks acquired from expert knowledge." Thesis, University of Skövde, School of Humanities and Informatics, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:his:diva-1123.

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<p>The maritime industry is experiencing one of its longest and fastest periods of growth. Hence, the global maritime surveillance capacity is in a great need of growth as well. The detection of vessel activity is an important objective of the civil security domain. Detecting vessel activity may become problematic if audit data is uncertain. This thesis aims to investigate if Bayesian networks acquired from expert knowledge can detect activities with a signature-based detection approach. For this, a maritime pilot-boat scenario has been identified with a domain expert. Each of the scenario’s a

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Suermondt, Henri Jacques. "Explanation in Bayesian belief networks." Full text available online (restricted access), 1992. http://images.lib.monash.edu.au/ts/theses/suermondt.pdf.

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Monrat, Ahmed Afif. "A BELIEF RULE BASED FLOOD RISK ASSESSMENT EXPERT SYSTEM USING REAL TIME SENSOR DATA STREAMING." Thesis, Luleå tekniska universitet, Datavetenskap, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-71081.

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Among the various natural calamities, flood is considered one of the most catastrophic natural hazards, which has a significant impact on the socio-economic lifeline of a country. The Assessment of flood risks facilitates taking appropriate measures to reduce the consequences of flooding. The flood risk assessment requires Big data which are coming from different sources, such as sensors, social media, and organizations. However, these data sources contain various types of uncertainties because of the presence of incomplete and inaccurate information. This paper presents a Belief rule-based ex

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Hridoy, Md Rafiul Sabbir. "An Intelligent Flood Risk Assessment System using Belief Rule Base." Thesis, Luleå tekniska universitet, Institutionen för system- och rymdteknik, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:ltu:diva-65390.

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Natural disasters disrupt our daily life and cause many sufferings. Among the various natural disasters, flood is one of the most catastrophic. Assessing flood risk helps to take necessary precautions and can save human lives. The assessment of risk involves various factors which can not be measured with hundred percent certainty. Therefore, the present methods of flood risk assessment can not assess the risk of flooding accurately. This research rigorously investigates various types of uncertainties associated with the flood risk factors. In addition, a comprehensive study of the present flo

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Farr, Anna C. "Understanding wayfinding: A Bayesian network approach." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2016. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/95789/1/Anna_Farr_Thesis.pdf.

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This research used statistical modelling to investigate the factors that contribute to how we find our way in transportation hubs, in particular, airports. Using Bayesian Networks, the researcher built a model that incorporated both the human and environmental factors required for effective wayfinding. This research has advanced the literature on how expert opinions can be combined in as well as contributing to improvement of the understanding of wayfinding in transportation hubs.

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Zhou, Fan. "The impacts of car-sharing and shared autonomous vehicles on urban mobility: Towards a sustainable future." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2018. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/121497/1/Fan_Zhou_Thesis.pdf.

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This dissertation presents a big-picture view for policymakers and related stakeholders regarding the future development of car-sharing services. Car sharing has the potential to significantly disrupt the personal mobility market, particularly on the dawn of self-driving cars. Thus, understanding car-sharing service's market penetration and implications are urgently needed. Studies in this thesis aim to forecast the penetration of car-sharing, to investigate if car-sharing influence consumers' vehicle ownership decision, and to explore the impacts of car-sharing on households' mode choice deci

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Pirathiban, Ramethaa. "Improving species distribution modelling: Selecting absences and eliciting variable usefulness for input into standard algorithms or a Bayesian hierarchical meta-factor model." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2019. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/134401/1/Ramethaa_Pirathiban_Thesis.pdf.

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This thesis explores and proposes methods to improve species distribution models. Throughout this thesis, a rich class of statistical modelling techniques has been developed to address crucial and interesting issues related to the data input into these models. The overall contribution of this research is the advancement of knowledge on species distribution modelling through an increased understanding of extraneous zeros, quality of the ecological data, variable selection that incorporates ecological theory and evaluating performance of the fitted models. Though motivated by the challenge of sp

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Hajj, Paméla El. "Méthodes d'aide à la décision thérapeutique dans les cas des maladies rares : intérêt des méthodes bayésiennes et application à la maladie de Horton." Thesis, Montpellier, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017MONTS037/document.

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Les maladies rares sont celles qui touchent un nombre restreint de personnes. Par conséquent, des problèmes spécifiques sont dus par cette rareté.Pour cette raison nous avons systématiquement recherché dans la littérature les publications concernant les caractéristiques des différentes méthodes mathématiques qui ont été utilisées pour l'étude des maladies rares. L'objectif est d'identifier des approches novatrices pour la recherche qui ont été, ou peuvent être, utilisées afin de surmonter les difficultés méthodologiques inhérentes à l'étude des maladies rares.Les méthodes bayésiennes sont reco

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Larkin, Patricia Marguerite. "An Integrated Risk Management Framework for Carbon Capture and Storage in the Canadian Context." Thesis, Université d'Ottawa / University of Ottawa, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/35881.

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Climate change is a risk issue of global proportions. Human health and environmental impacts are anticipated from hazards associated with changes in temperature and precipitation regimes, and climate extremes. Increased natural hazards include storms and flooding, extreme heat, drought, and wildfires. Reduced food and water quality and quantity, reduced air quality, new geographic range of infectious diseases, and increased exposure to ultra-violet radiation are also predicted. In order to make a measurable contribution to reducing carbon dioxide emissions at point source fossil fuel and i

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Ben, Abdallah Nadia. "Modeling sea-level rise uncertainties for coastal defence adaptation using belief functions." Thesis, Compiègne, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014COMP1616.

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L’adaptation côtière est un impératif pour faire face à l’élévation du niveau marin,conséquence directe du réchauffement climatique. Cependant, la mise en place d’actions et de stratégies est souvent entravée par la présence de diverses et importantes incertitudes lors de l’estimation des aléas et risques futurs. Ces incertitudes peuvent être dues à une connaissance limitée (de l’élévation du niveau marin futur par exemple) ou à la variabilité naturelle de certaines variables (les conditions de mer extrêmes). La prise en compte des incertitudes dans la chaîne d’évaluation des risques est essen

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Fucik, Markus. "Bayesian risk management : "Frequency does not make you smarter"." Phd thesis, Universität Potsdam, 2010. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2011/5308/.

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Within our research group Bayesian Risk Solutions we have coined the idea of a Bayesian Risk Management (BRM). It claims (1) a more transparent and diligent data analysis as well as (2)an open-minded incorporation of human expertise in risk management. In this dissertation we formulize a framework for BRM based on the two pillars Hardcore-Bayesianism (HCB) and Softcore-Bayesianism (SCB) providing solutions for the claims above. For data analysis we favor Bayesian statistics with its Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation algorithm. It provides a full illustration of data-induced uncertaint

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Oteniya, Lloyd. "Bayesian belief networks for dementia diagnosis and other applications : a comparison of hand-crafting and construction using a novel data driven technique." Thesis, University of Stirling, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1893/497.

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The Bayesian network (BN) formalism is a powerful representation for encoding domains characterised by uncertainty. However, before it can be used it must first be constructed, which is a major challenge for any real-life problem. There are two broad approaches, namely the hand-crafted approach, which relies on a human expert, and the data-driven approach, which relies on data. The former approach is useful, however issues such as human bias can introduce errors into the model. We have conducted a literature review of the expert-driven approach, and we have cherry-picked a number of common met

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Barbour, Emily. "Quantitative modelling for assessing system trade-offs in environmental flow management." Phd thesis, Canberra, ACT : The Australian National University, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/109583.

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This research aims to better enable the management of environmental flows through exploring the opportunities and challenges in using quantitative models for decision making. It examines the development and application of ecological response models, river system models, and multi-objective optimisation for improved ecological outcomes and the identification of trade-offs. In doing so, the thesis endeavours to capture a deeper and more holistic understanding of uncertainty in the application of quantitative models, to assist in making more informed decisions in water resource management. The th

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Al-Ani, Ahmed Karim. "An improved pattern classification system using optimal feature selection, classifier combination, and subspace mapping techniques." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2002.

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O'Leary, Rebecca A. "Informed statistical modelling of habitat suitability for rare and threatened species." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2008. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/17779/1/Rebecca_O%27Leary_Thesis.pdf.

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In this thesis a number of statistical methods have been developed and applied to habitat suitability modelling for rare and threatened species. Data available on these species are typically limited. Therefore, developing these models from these data can be problematic and may produce prediction biases. To address these problems there are three aims of this thesis. The _rst aim is to develop and implement frequentist and Bayesian statistical modelling approaches for these types of data. The second aim is develop and implement expert elicitation methods. The third aim is to apply these novel ap

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O'Leary, Rebecca A. "Informed statistical modelling of habitat suitability for rare and threatened species." Queensland University of Technology, 2008. http://eprints.qut.edu.au/17779/.

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In this thesis a number of statistical methods have been developed and applied to habitat suitability modelling for rare and threatened species. Data available on these species are typically limited. Therefore, developing these models from these data can be problematic and may produce prediction biases. To address these problems there are three aims of this thesis. The _rst aim is to develop and implement frequentist and Bayesian statistical modelling approaches for these types of data. The second aim is develop and implement expert elicitation methods. The third aim is to apply these novel ap

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MAGRINI, ALESSANDRO. "A Bayesian network for the diagnosis of cardiopulmonary diseases: Learning from medical experts and clinical data." Doctoral thesis, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2158/841701.

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Bayesian networks offer an extremely flexible environment for knowledge representation, so that they are often claimed to be the best statistical tools to support medical diagnosis. An Acyclic Directed Graph encodes causal relationships and provides a factorization of the joint probability distribution according to conditional independence properties. Although knowledge for the specification of the Acyclic Directed Graph is easilyretrievable, the information useful to develop the quantitative part of the network is typically scattered and varying in quality. For instance, medical literature se

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黃國禎. "= New knowledge elicitation methods for constructing expert systems." Thesis, 1991. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/32921369062265519472.

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"Expert knowledge elicitation to improve mental and formal models." Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1997. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/2654.

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David N. Ford and John D. Sterman.<br>Includes bibliographical references (p. 24-25).<br>Supported by the Python organization, the Organizational Learning Center and the System Dynamics Group at the MIT Sloan School of Management.

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Cruickshank, Claire. "Does the Elicitation Mode Matter? Comparing Different Methods for Eliciting Expert Judgement." 2018. https://scholarworks.umass.edu/masters_theses_2/634.

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An expert elicitation is a method of eliciting subjective probability distributions over key parameters from experts. Traditionally an expert elicitation has taken the form of a face-to-face interview; however, interest in using online methods has been growing. This thesis compares two elicitation modes and examines the effectiveness of an interactive online survey compared to a face-to-face interview. Differences in central values, overconfidence, accuracy and satisficing were considered. The results of our analysis indicated that, in instances where the online and face-to-face elicitations w

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Dunn, Jessamine Corey. "Bayesian Networks with Expert Elicitation as Applicable to Student Retention in Institutional Research." 2016. http://scholarworks.gsu.edu/eps_diss/146.

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The application of Bayesian networks within the field of institutional research is explored through the development of a Bayesian network used to predict first- to second-year retention of undergraduates. A hybrid approach to model development is employed, in which formal elicitation of subject-matter expertise is combined with machine learning in designing model structure and specification of model parameters. Subject-matter experts include two academic advisors at a small, private liberal arts college in the southeast, and the data used in machine learning include six years of historical stu

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Yang, Yung-Hsiang, and 楊詠翔. "Study on Expert Experience Elicitation Applied to Bayesian Network – An Example of Construction Safety." Thesis, 2009. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/98224660923602026560.

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碩士<br>國立臺灣科技大學<br>營建工程系<br>97<br>Bayesian Network is an effective analysis method, and it is used in many domains in recent year. In construction engineering, many risk factors bring much uncertainty, and analyst cannot obtain the correct probabilities because of the lack of historical data. In the situation, how to obtain the probabilities of all the factors in every state will become an important topic. In order to build a method process to acquire experts’ subjective probabilities, this research will investigate how to obtain the accurate values in the conditional probability table (CP

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Kabir, Sohag, T. K. Goek, M. Kumar, M. Yazdi, and F. Hossain. "A method for temporal fault tree analysis using intuitionistic fuzzy set and expert elicitation." 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10454/17992.

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Yes<br>Temporal fault trees (TFTs), an extension of classical Boolean fault trees, can model time-dependent failure behaviour of dynamic systems. The methodologies used for quantitative analysis of TFTs include algebraic solutions, Petri nets (PN), and Bayesian networks (BN). In these approaches, precise failure data of components are usually used to calculate the probability of the top event of a TFT. However, it can be problematic to obtain these precise data due to the imprecise and incomplete information about the components of a system. In this paper, we propose a framework that combines

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Alvarado-Valencia, J., L. H. Barrero, Dilek Onkal, and J. T. Dennerlein. "Expertise, credibility of system forecasts and integration methods in judgmental demand forecasting." 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10454/13387.

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Yes<br>Expert knowledge elicitation lies at the core of judgmental forecasting—a domain that relies fully on the power of such knowledge and its integration into forecasting. Using experts in a demand forecasting framework, this work aims to compare the accuracy improvements and forecasting performances of three judgmental integration methods. To do this, a field study was conducted with 31 experts from four companies. The methods compared were the judgmental adjustment, the 50–50 combination, and the divide-and-conquer. Forecaster expertise, the credibility of system forecasts and the need to

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Czembor, Christina Anne. "Incorporating uncertainty into expert models for management of box-ironbark forests and woodlands in Victoria, Australia." 2009. http://repository.unimelb.edu.au/10187/5801.

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Anthropogenic utilization of forest and woodland ecosystems can cause declines in flora and fauna species. It is imperative to restore these ecosystems to mitigate further declines. In this thesis, I focused on a highly degraded region, the Box-Ironbark forests and woodlands of Victoria, Australia. Rather than mature stands with large trees, stands are currently dominated by high densities of small stems. This change has resulted in reduced populations of many flora and fauna species dependent on older-growth forests and woodlands. Managers are interested in restoring mature Box-Ironbark fores

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Classen, Selwyn Ivor. "Using storytelling to elicit tacit knowledge from subject matter experts in an organization." Thesis, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/11394/3486.

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Magister Commercii (Information Management) - MCom(IM)<br>Knowledge Management has been at the heart of mounting focus over the last several years. Research and literature on the area under discussion has grown and organizations have come to realize that success is often determined by one’s ability to create, disseminate, and embody knowledge in products and services. This realization has led to increased interest in examining the ways in which knowledge can be effectively identified, elicited, codified, distributed and retained.When an employee leaves an organization, the knowledge they

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Hsieh, Chien-Wen, and 謝千文. "The Study of Teaching Belief and Teaching Behavior of A Somatic Education Expert Teacher: Taking Pilates Course as An Example." Thesis, 2008. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/gd32f9.

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碩士<br>國立臺東大學<br>體育學系碩士班<br>96<br>The purpose of the study is to explore the relationship among teaching belief and teaching behavior for a somatic education expert teacher in the Pilates course. I collected qualitative data of the expert teacher

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Kashuba, Roxolana Oresta. "Bayesian Methods to Characterize Uncertainty in Predictive Modeling of the Effect of Urbanization on Aquatic Ecosystems." Diss., 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10161/2366.

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<p>Urbanization causes myriad changes in watershed processes, ultimately disrupting the structure and function of stream ecosystems. Urban development introduces contaminants (human waste, pesticides, industrial chemicals). Impervious surfaces and artificial drainage systems speed the delivery of contaminants to streams, while bypassing soil filtration and local riparian processes that can mitigate the impacts of these contaminants, and disrupting the timing and volume of hydrologic patterns. Aquatic habitats where biota live are degraded by sedimentation, channel incision, floodplain disco

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Pietrocatelli, Simon. "Analyse bayésienne et élicitation d’opinions d’experts en analyse de risques et particulièrement dans le cas de l’amiante chrysotile." Thèse, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/1866/3345.

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L’appréciation de la puissance cancérogène des fibres d’amiante chrysotile repose en grande partie sur des jugements subjectifs et incertains des experts et des analystes en raison des résultats hétérogènes et équivoques d’études épidémiologiques et toxicologiques sérieuses. L’approche probabiliste bayésienne en évaluation de risques peut formaliser l’impact des jugements subjectifs et de leurs incertitudes sur les estimations de risques, mais elle est encore peu utilisée en santé publique. Le présent travail examine la possibilité d’appliquer l’approche bayésienne dans une récente élicitation

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"Reliability Information and Testing Integration for New Product Design." Doctoral diss., 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2286/R.I.25799.

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abstract: In the three phases of the engineering design process (conceptual design, embodiment design and detailed design), traditional reliability information is scarce. However, there are different sources of information that provide reliability inputs while designing a new product. This research considered these sources to be further analyzed: reliability information from similar existing products denominated as parents, elicited experts' opinions, initial testing and the customer voice for creating design requirements. These sources were integrated with three novels approaches to produce r

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Chou, Shu-Chiung, and 周淑瓊. "A Comparative Study of the Belief, Cognition, Act Strategies and the Effects of Classroom Management between the Expert and Novice Teachers in the Junior High School." Thesis, 1999. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/39876699871523936936.

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碩士<br>國立臺灣師範大學<br>教育心理與輔導研究所<br>87<br>A Comparative Study of the Belief, Cognition, Act Strategies and the Effects of Classroom Management between the Expert and Novice Teachers in the Junior High School Shu-Chiung Chou Abstract The purposes of this study were: 1.to investigate the belief, cognition, and act strategies of classroom management between the expert and novice teachers in the junior high school; 2.to compare the effects of classroom management between the expert and novice teachers in the junior high school. The methods used in this study

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Lin, Yi-Hsuan, and 林易萱. "A Comparative Study of Teachers' Belief, Professional Commitment, and Classroom Management Effectiveness between Novice Teachers and Expert Teachers in Junior and Senior High Schools in Taiwan." Thesis, 2016. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/6d7w6v.

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碩士<br>國立彰化師範大學<br>教育研究所<br>104<br>A Comparative Study of Teachers’ Belief, Professional Commitment, and Classroom Management Effectiveness between Novice Teachers and Expert Teachers in Junior and Senior High Schools in Taiwan Advisor: Hsin-Yi Kung, Ph. D. Author: Yi-Hsuan Lin Abstract The purpose of this study was to explore whether years of teaching has impact on teachers’ belief, professional commitment, and classroom management effectiveness. Novices who are homeroom teachers with one to three years of teaching are qualified. Experts who have at least six years of homeroom teacher exper

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