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1
Lessmann, Ole, Jorge Encinas Fernández, Karla Martínez-Cruz, and Frank Peeters. "Methane emissions due to reservoir flushing: a significant emission pathway?" Biogeosciences 20, no. 19 (2023): 4057–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-4057-2023.
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Abstract. Reservoirs represent a globally significant source of the greenhouse gas methane (CH4), which is emitted via different emission pathways. In some reservoirs, reservoir flushing is employed as a sediment management strategy to counteract growing sediment deposits that threaten reservoir capacity. Reservoir flushing utilizes the eroding force of water currents during water level drawdown to mobilize and transport sediment deposits through the dam outlet into the downstream river. During this process, CH4 that is stored in the sediment can be released into the water and degas to the atmosphere, resulting in CH4 emissions. Here, we assess the significance of this CH4 emission pathway and compare it to other CH4 emission pathways from reservoirs. We measured seasonal and spatial CH4 concentrations in the sediment of Schwarzenbach Reservoir, providing one of the largest datasets on CH4 pore water concentrations in freshwater systems. Based on this dataset we determined CH4 fluxes from the sediment and estimated potential CH4 emissions due to reservoir flushing. CH4 emissions due to one flushing operation can constitute 7 %–14 % of the typical annual CH4 emissions from Schwarzenbach Reservoir, whereby the amount of released CH4 depends on the seasonal timing of the flushing operation and can differ by a factor of 2. Larger flushing events that mobilize deeper sediment layers lead to non-linear increases in CH4 mobilization. This suggests that regular flushing of smaller sediment layers releases less CH4 than removal of the same sediment volume in fewer flushing events of thicker sediment layers. However, additional indirect CH4 emissions pathways contributing to the total CH4 emissions may vary with the flushing operation. In other reservoirs with higher sediment loadings than Schwarzenbach Reservoir, reservoir flushing could cause substantial CH4 emissions, especially when flushing operations are conducted frequently. Our study recognizes CH4 emissions due to reservoir flushing as an important pathway, identifies potential management strategies to mitigate these CH4 emissions and emphasizes the need for further research.
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Anderson, Kevin, and Alice Bows. "Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emission trends." Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 366, no. 1882 (2008): 3863–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2008.0138.
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The 2007 Bali conference heard repeated calls for reductions in global greenhouse gas emissions of 50 per cent by 2050 to avoid exceeding the 2°C threshold. While such endpoint targets dominate the policy agenda, they do not, in isolation, have a scientific basis and are likely to lead to dangerously misguided policies. To be scientifically credible, policy must be informed by an understanding of cumulative emissions and associated emission pathways. This analysis considers the implications of the 2°C threshold and a range of post-peak emission reduction rates for global emission pathways and cumulative emission budgets. The paper examines whether empirical estimates of greenhouse gas emissions between 2000 and 2008, a period typically modelled within scenario studies, combined with short-term extrapolations of current emissions trends, significantly constrains the 2000–2100 emission pathways. The paper concludes that it is increasingly unlikely any global agreement will deliver the radical reversal in emission trends required for stabilization at 450 ppmv carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e). Similarly, the current framing of climate change cannot be reconciled with the rates of mitigation necessary to stabilize at 550 ppmv CO 2 e and even an optimistic interpretation suggests stabilization much below 650 ppmv CO 2 e is improbable.
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Niemierka, Elżbieta, and Piotr Jadwiszczak. "Alternative scenarios investigation of 1990..2016 CO2 emission from Public Electricity and Heat Production sectors in Europe." E3S Web of Conferences 116 (2019): 00053. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/201911600053.
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Proposed alternatives scenarios methodology allows retrospective analysing of decarbonisation processes in 26 national Public Electricity and Heat Production (PEHP) sectors in EU, based on 1990..2016 national CO2 emission inventories. The CO2 emission driving forces for PEHP sectors were defined and investigated in 26 years emission pathways approach. Graphical overview of 108 prepared (real and alternatives) emission pathways allow assessing CO2 emission factors impact, pathways grouping and indicating the dominant pathway of 1990..2016 decarbonisation in EU national PEHP sectors. The alternatives scenarios methodology based on historical data enables to drawn lessons from past to move the European PEHP into a low-carbon future.
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Helm, B., T. Terekhanova, J. Tränckner, M. Venohr, and P. Krebs. "Attributiveness of a mass flow analysis model for integrated water resources assessment under data-scarce conditions." Water Science and Technology 67, no. 2 (2013): 261–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2012.497.
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Nutrients in river systems originate from multiple emission sources, follow various pathways, and are subject to processes of conversion and fate. One approach to tackle this complexity is to apply balance-oriented models. Although these models operate on a coarse temporal and spatial scale, they are capable of assessing the significance of the different emission sources and their results can be the basis for developing integrated water quality management schemes. In this paper we propose and apply a methodology to evaluate the attributiveness of such model results with regard to the modelled emission pathways. The MONERIS (MOdelling Nutrient Emissions in RIver Systems) model is set up, assuming plausible ranges of emission levels from four principal sources. The sensitivity of model performance is computed and related to the contribution from the pathways. The approach is applied for a case study in the upper Western Bug catchment (Ukraine). Coefficient of determination (R²) is found insensitive against the model assumptions, at levels around 0.65 for nitrogen and 0.55 for phosphorous emissions. Relative mean absolute error is minimized around 0.2 for both nutrients, but with equifinal combinations of the varied emission pathways. Model performance is constrained by the ranges of the emission assumptions to a limited extent only.
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Toktarova, Alla, Ida Karlsson, Johan Rootzén, Lisa Göransson, Mikael Odenberger, and Filip Johnsson. "Pathways for Low-Carbon Transition of the Steel Industry—A Swedish Case Study." Energies 13, no. 15 (2020): 3840. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en13153840.
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The concept of techno-economic pathways is used to investigate the potential implementation of CO2 abatement measures over time towards zero-emission steelmaking in Sweden. The following mitigation measures are investigated and combined in three pathways: top gas recycling blast furnace (TGRBF); carbon capture and storage (CCS); substitution of pulverized coal injection (PCI) with biomass; hydrogen direct reduction of iron ore (H-DR); and electric arc furnace (EAF), where fossil fuels are replaced with biomass. The results show that CCS in combination with biomass substitution in the blast furnace and a replacement primary steel production plant with EAF with biomass (Pathway 1) yield CO2 emission reductions of 83% in 2045 compared to CO2 emissions with current steel process configurations. Electrification of the primary steel production in terms of H-DR/EAF process (Pathway 2), could result in almost fossil-free steel production, and Sweden could achieve a 10% reduction in total CO2 emissions. Finally, (Pathway 3) we show that increased production of hot briquetted iron pellets (HBI), could lead to decarbonization of the steel industry outside Sweden, assuming that the exported HBI will be converted via EAF and the receiving country has a decarbonized power sector.
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Zhang, Lijun, Gaofei Yin, Zihao Wei, et al. "Potential and Pathways of Carbon Emission Reduction in China’s Beef Production from the Supply Chain Perspective." Agriculture 14, no. 7 (2024): 1190. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/agriculture14071190.
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Beef production is the primary contributor to greenhouse gas emissions in animal husbandry. But the carbon emission distribution, potential for carbon reduction, and pathways in the main links of the beef cattle industry chain are not yet clear. Balancing efficiency and fairness while taking tailored emission reduction paths according to local conditions is crucial in helping to achieve the low-carbon animal husbandry and “dual carbon” goals. This research adopts an industry chain perspective to assess four leading beef production regions’ carbon emissions, potential, and pathways in China from 2007 to 2021. We use life cycle assessment, the potential index which considers efficiency and fairness; the results are as follows: (1) The potential for carbon emission reduction in China’s beef industry showed an inverted U-shaped change trend from 2007 to 2021, and the average potential for carbon emission reduction in most provinces fluctuated around 0.500. (2) The main producing areas of China’s beef industry were divided into four areas of high efficiency and low fairness (Area A); high efficiency and high fairness (Area B); low efficiency and low fairness (Area C); and low efficiency and high fairness (Area D). (3) Differentiated emission reduction pathways were designed to reduce emissions, highlighting the need to implement region-specific carbon reduction policies.
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Zhou, Aishuang, Jinsheng Zhou, Jingjian Si, and Guoyu Wang. "Study on Embodied CO2 Emissions and Transfer Pathways of Chinese Industries." Sustainability 15, no. 3 (2023): 2215. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su15032215.
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Industries with low direct CO2 emissions downstream in the industry chain have significant carbon emissions upstream, which is similar to how carbon leakage in interprovincial regions and international commerce affects these regions. Due to the interchange and transit of goods, there are intermediate production and consumption processes across industrial sectors. The CO2 emissions produced by each sector are insufficient to satisfy the sector’s ultimate demand. It will also move along with the industrial chain. Investigating embodied carbon transfer across industrial sectors is crucial to strike a balance between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. Locating the key sectors to reduce carbon emissions provides a basis for formulating resource conservation and environmental protection policies. In this study, the industrial sector divides into 24 subsectors, and the embodied CO2 emissions and carbon transfer pathways of each are examined from the viewpoint of the industrial chain using the Economic Input–Output Life Cycle Assessment (EIO-LCA) and the Hypothetical Extraction Method (HEM). The indirect CO2 emissions downstream of the industrial chain are higher than the direct carbon dioxide emissions, and the intersectoral carbon transfer constitutes a significant part of the total carbon emissions of the industrial sector. The upstream sector of the industry chain has a significantly higher direct carbon emission intensity than the indirect CO2 emission intensity, while the downstream sector is the opposite. The production and supply of electricity, gas and water, and raw material industries transfer significant CO2 to other sectors. The manufacturing industry is mainly the inflow of CO2. CO2 flows from the mining industry to the raw material industry and from the raw material industry to the manufacturing industry constitute the critical pathway of carbon transfer between industries. A study on the embodied carbon emissions and transfer paths of various industrial sectors is conducive to clarifying the emission reduction responsibilities and providing a basis for synergistic emission reduction strategies.
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Hennessy, Eleanor M., Madalsa Singh, Sarah Saltzer, and Inês M. L. Azevedo. "Pathways to zero emissions in California’s heavy-duty transportation sector." Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability 4, no. 3 (2024): 035001. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/2634-4505/ad54ed.
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Abstract California contributes 0.75% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and has a target of reaching economy-wide net zero emissions by 2045, requiring all sectors to rapidly reduce emissions. Nearly 8% of California’s GHG emissions are from the heavy-duty transportation sector. In this work, we simulate decarbonization strategies for the heavy-duty vehicle (HDV) fleet using detailed fleet turnover and air quality models to track evolution of the fleet, GHG and criteria air pollutant emissions, and resulting air quality and health impacts across sociodemographic groups. We assess the effectiveness of two types of policies: zero emission vehicle sales mandates, and accelerated retirement policies. For policies including early retirements, we estimate the cost of early retirements and the cost-effectiveness of each policy. We find even a policy mandating all HDV sales to be zero emission vehicles by 2025 would not achieve fleetwide zero emissions by 2045. For California to achieve its goal of carbon neutrality, early retirement policies are needed. We find that a combination of early retirement policies and zero emission vehicle sales mandates could reduce cumulative CO2 emissions by up to 64%. Furthermore, we find that decarbonization policies will significantly reduce air pollution-related mortality, and that Black, Latino, and low-income communities will benefit most. We find that policies targeting long-haul heavy-heavy duty trucks would have the greatest benefits and be most cost-effective.
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Xie, Xiaona, Youwei Li, Han Zhang, Zhengwei Chang, and Yu Zhan. "Pathway Simulation and Evaluation of Carbon Neutrality in the Sichuan-Chongqing Region Based on the LEAP Model." Sustainability 17, no. 7 (2025): 3233. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17073233.
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Facing the intensifying global climate change pressures and China’s strategic commitment to carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, this study focuses on the multiple challenges faced by the Sichuan-Chongqing region, the economic core of southwest China, in optimizing its energy structure, controlling carbon emissions, and exploring sustainable development pathways. The study uses the LEAP (Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning) model to simulate energy demand and carbon emission trends under different policies and innovative technologies by constructing various scenarios. By conducting a comparative analysis of the LEAP model’s projection results under four scenarios (baseline scenario, alleviative scenario, low-carbon scenario, and high-efficiency low-carbon scenario), this study quantifies the energy demand and carbon emission pathways in the Sichuan-Chongqing region. The results show that optimizing the energy structure and improving energy efficiency are key to achieving carbon neutrality in the Sichuan-Chongqing region. Under the high-efficiency low-carbon scenario, the region is expected to reach peak energy consumption by 2050 and achieve a significant reduction in carbon emissions by 2060, with emissions dropping to 58.1% of the total emissions in 2050 and falling below 25% of the base year’s emissions. The industry sector is expected to account for 77.6% of total emissions. This study highlights the positive impact of widespread clean energy adoption on carbon reduction and demonstrates the importance of industrial restructuring and low-carbon technological innovation, among other green technologies, in promoting economic and environmental sustainability. Furthermore, by quantitatively analyzing carbon emission pathways under different scenarios, the study provides quantitative support and policy references for Sichuan-Chongqing and other regions to implement more scientific emission reduction measures and carbon neutrality pathway planning. The findings contribute to advancing regional collaborative governance, enhancing the scientific rigor of policy implementation, and fostering global climate governance cooperation, ultimately contributing to the coordinated and sustainable development of the ecological environment, economy, and society, embodying the “Sichuan-Chongqing efforts”.
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Oda, Masato, and Nguyen Huu Chiem. "Rice cultivation reduces methane emissions in high-emitting paddies." F1000Research 7 (August 29, 2018): 1349. http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.15859.1.
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Background: Rice is typically understood to enhance methane emissions from paddy fields. However, rice actually has two separate functions related to methane: i) emission enhancement, such as by providing emission pathways (aerenchyma) and methanogenetic substrates; and ii) emission suppression by providing oxygen pathways, which suppress methanogenesis or enhance methane oxidation. The overall role of rice is thus determined by the balance between its enhancing and suppressing functions. Although existing studies have suggested that rice enhances total methane emissions, we aimed to demonstrate that the balance between rice’s emitting and suppressing functions changes according to overall methane emission levels, which have quite a large range (16–500 kg methane ha−1 crop−1). Methods: Using PVC chambers, we compared methane emissions emitted by rice paddy fields with and without rice plants in rice fields in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. Samples were analyzed by gas chromatograph. Results: We found high overall methane emission levels and our results indicated that rice in fact suppressed methane emissions under these conditions. Emission reductions increased with the growth of rice, up to 60% of emission rate at the maximum tillering stage, then decreased to 20% after the heading stage, and finally recovering back to 60%. Discussion: It is known that methane is emitted by ebullition when the emission level is high, and methane emission reductions in rice-planted fields are thought to be due to oxidation and methanogenesis suppression. However, although many studies have found that the contribution of soil organic matter to methanogenesis is small, our results suggested that methanogenesis depended mainly on soil organic matter accumulated from past crops. The higher the methane emission level, the lower the contribution of rice-providing substrate. Conclusion: As a result, during the growing season, rice enhanced methane emissions in low-emission paddy fields but suppressed methane emissions in high-emission paddy fields.
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Xinghua, WANG, WANG Qiang, GUO Xiaoli, et al. "Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Reduction Pathways of County-level Agricultural Carbon Emissions for Shanxi Province in China." RA JOURNALS OF APPLIED RESEARCH 10, no. 02 (2024): 30–43. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10725900.
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Agriculture is the main source of greenhouse gas emissions second only to energy activities and industrial production. Agricultural carbon emission reduction can effectively alleviate the negative impact of greenhouse effect. Using the emission factor method, this paper combs four types of agricultural production activities, including agricultural inputs, farmland management, animal intestinal digestion and fecal management, calculates the county-level agricultural carbon emissions quantity and intensity in Shanxi Province from 2018 to 2022, and uses GeoDa software and spatial autocorrelation model to estimate the Global Moran’s index, revealing the spatial agglomeration characteristics of county-level carbon emissions. From the perspective of changing trend, agricultural carbon emissions show an increase for 64.10% in total counties. It is quite limited for the reduction of carbon emission intensity on county-level agriculture, and the potential compression space is large. Animal intestinal fermentation became the primary source of county-level agricultural carbon emissions during the study period. From the perspective of spatial distribution, the agricultural carbon emissions are relatively high for the northern and central counties of Shanxi Province. The counties with high carbon emission intensity are also mainly distributed in northern and central Shanxi Province. In 2022, the Global Moran’s index of county-level agricultural carbon emissions quantity and intensity were 0.4918 and 0.4933 respectively. This shows that both indicators for county-level agricultural carbon emissions have spatial autocorrelation. The spatial distributions scale was slightly expanded for carbon emission intensity in significantly agglomerated counties, and the spatial homogeneity was slightly enhanced. This has practical guiding significance for formulating more targeted differentiated policies and accelerating the realization of carbon emission reduction targets.
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Liu, Zhenze, Ruth M. Doherty, Oliver Wild, Fiona M. O'Connor, and Steven T. Turnock. "Tropospheric ozone changes and ozone sensitivity from the present day to the future under shared socio-economic pathways." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 22, no. 2 (2022): 1209–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-1209-2022.
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Abstract. Tropospheric ozone is important to future air quality and climate. We investigate ozone changes and ozone sensitivity to changing emissions in the context of climate change from the present day (2004–2014) to the future (2045–2055) under a range of shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). We apply the United Kingdom Earth System Model, UKESM1, with an extended chemistry scheme including more reactive volatile organic compounds (VOCs) to quantify ozone burdens as well as ozone sensitivities globally and regionally based on nitrogen oxide (NOx) and VOC mixing ratios. We show that the tropospheric ozone burden increases by 4 % under a development pathway with higher NOx and VOC emissions (SSP3-7.0) but decreases by 7 % under the same pathway if NOx and VOC emissions are reduced (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) and by 5 % if atmospheric methane (CH4) mixing ratios are reduced (SSP3-7.0-lowCH4). Global mean surface ozone mixing ratios are reduced by 3–5 ppb under SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF and by 2–3 ppb under SSP3-7.0-lowCH4. However, surface ozone changes vary substantially by season in high-emission regions under future pathways, with decreased ozone mixing ratios in summer and increased ozone mixing ratios in winter when NOx emissions are reduced. VOC-limited areas are more extensive in winter (7 %) than in summer (3 %) across the globe. North America, Europe, and East Asia are the dominant VOC-limited regions in the present day, but North America and Europe become more NOx-limited in the future mainly due to reductions in NOx emissions. The impacts of VOC emissions on ozone sensitivity are limited in North America and Europe because reduced anthropogenic VOC emissions are partly offset by higher biogenic VOC emissions. Ozone sensitivity is not greatly influenced by changing CH4 mixing ratios. South Asia becomes the dominant VOC-limited region under future pathways. We highlight that reductions in NOx emissions are required to transform ozone production from VOC to NOx limitation, but that these lead to increased ozone mixing ratios in high-emission regions, and hence emission controls on VOC and CH4 are also necessary.
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Ma, Shuang, Lifen Jiang, Rachel M. Wilson, et al. "Evaluating alternative ebullition models for predicting peatland methane emission and its pathways via data–model fusion." Biogeosciences 19, no. 8 (2022): 2245–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2245-2022.
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Abstract. Understanding the dynamics of peatland methane (CH4) emissions and quantifying sources of uncertainty in estimating peatland CH4 emissions are critical for mitigating climate change. The relative contributions of CH4 emission pathways through ebullition, plant-mediated transport, and diffusion, together with their different transport rates and vulnerability to oxidation, determine the quantity of CH4 to be oxidized before leaving the soil. Notwithstanding their importance, the relative contributions of the emission pathways are highly uncertain. In particular, the ebullition process is more uncertain and can lead to large uncertainties in modeled CH4 emissions. To improve model simulations of CH4 emission and its pathways, we evaluated two model structures: (1) the ebullition bubble growth volume threshold approach (EBG) and (2) the modified ebullition concentration threshold approach (ECT) using CH4 flux and concentration data collected in a peatland in northern Minnesota, USA. When model parameters were constrained using observed CH4 fluxes, the CH4 emissions simulated by the EBG approach (RMSE = 0.53) had a better agreement with observations than the ECT approach (RMSE = 0.61). Further, the EBG approach simulated a smaller contribution from ebullition but more frequent ebullition events than the ECT approach. The EBG approach yielded greatly improved simulations of pore water CH4 concentrations, especially in the deep soil layers, compared to the ECT approach. When constraining the EBG model with both CH4 flux and concentration data in model–data fusion, uncertainty of the modeled CH4 concentration profiles was reduced by 78 % to 86 % in comparison to constraints based on CH4 flux data alone. The improved model capability was attributed to the well-constrained parameters regulating the CH4 production and emission pathways. Our results suggest that the EBG modeling approach better characterizes CH4 emission and underlying mechanisms. Moreover, to achieve the best model results both CH4 flux and concentration data are required to constrain model parameterization.
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Wang, Xianen, Baoyang Qin, Hanning Wang, Xize Dong, and Haiyan Duan. "Carbon Mitigation Pathways of Urban Transportation under Cold Climatic Conditions." International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19, no. 8 (2022): 4570. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph19084570.
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Climate heterogeneity has enormous impacts on CO2 emissions of the transportation sector, especially in cold regions where the demand for in-car heating and anti-skid measures leads to high energy consumption, and the penetration rate of electric vehicles is low. It entails to propose targeted emission reduction measures in cold regions for peaking CO2 emissions as soon as possible. This paper constructs an integrated long-range energy alternatives planning system (LEAP) model that incorporates multi-transportation modes and multi-energy types to predict the CO2 emission trend of the urban transportation sector in a typical cold province of China. Five scenarios are set based on distinct level emission control for simulating the future trends during 2017–2050. The results indicate that the peak value is 704.7–742.1 thousand metric tons (TMT), and the peak time is 2023–2035. Energy-saving–low-carbon scenario (ELS) is the optimal scenario with the peak value of 716.6 TMT in 2028. Energy intensity plays a dominant role in increasing CO2 emissions of the urban transportation sector. Under ELS, CO2 emissions can be reduced by 68.66%, 6.56% and 1.38% through decreasing energy intensity, increasing the proportion of public transportation and reducing the proportion of fossil fuels, respectively. Simultaneously, this study provides practical reference for other cold regions to formulate CO2 reduction roadmaps.
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van Puijenbroek, P. J. T. M., A. F. Bouwman, A. H. W. Beusen, and P. L. Lucas. "Global implementation of two shared socioeconomic pathways for future sanitation and wastewater flows." Water Science and Technology 71, no. 2 (2014): 227–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2014.498.
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Households are an important source of nutrient loading to surface water. Sewage systems without or with only primary wastewater treatment are major polluters of surface water. Future emission levels will depend on population growth, urbanisation, increases in income and investments in sanitation, sewage systems and wastewater treatment plants. This study presents the results for two possible shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). SSP1 is a scenario that includes improvement of wastewater treatment and SSP3 does not include such improvement, with fewer investments and a higher population growth. The main drivers for the nutrient emission model are population growth, income growth and urbanisation. Under the SSP1 scenario, 5.7 billion people will be connected to a sewage system and for SSP3 this is 5 billion. Nitrogen and phosphorus emissions increase by about 70% under both SSP scenarios, with the largest increase in SSP1. South Asia and Africa have the largest emission increases, in the developed countries decrease the nutrient emissions. The higher emission level poses a risk to ecosystem services.
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Poschmann, Justus, Vanessa Bach, and Matthias Finkbeiner. "Decarbonization Potentials for Automotive Supply Chains: Emission-Intensity Pathways of Carbon-Intensive Hotspots of Battery Electric Vehicles." Sustainability 15, no. 15 (2023): 11795. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su151511795.
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To keep global warming below 1.5 °C, the road transport sector must decrease its emissions by substituting internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) with battery electric vehicles (BEV). As BEVs can be operated with renewable electricity, the CO2−eq emissions of the supply chain are relevant for future mitigation. The aim of this paper is to derive emission-intensity pathways and to determine the decarbonization impact regarding the lifecycle emissions of BEVs. Therefore, an analysis for steel, aluminum, battery cells, plastic, and glass, and an evaluation of the literature containing present emission intensities (e.g., for steel 1.7 tCO2/t to 2.8 tCO2/t) and reduction potentials, were performed. Based on low-carbon electricity, circular materials, and recycling, as well as technological improvements, emission intensities can be decreased by 69% to 91% by 2050. As a result, the carbon footprint of the reviewed vehicles can be reduced by 47% for supply chain emissions, whereas 25% to 37% of the total lifecycle emissions remain. Considering the scenario studied, BEVs cannot be decarbonized aligned to the 1.5 °C pathway using only avoidance and reduction measures until 2050. Consequently, the application of carbon removals is necessary. However, the applied trajectory and extrapolation relies on material availability and does not consider abatement costs.
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Hartin, C. A., B. Bond-Lamberty, P. Patel, and A. Mundra. "Projections of ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model." Biogeosciences Discussions 12, no. 23 (2015): 19269–305. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bgd-12-19269-2015.
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Abstract. Continued oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 is projected to significantly alter the chemistry of the upper oceans, potentially having serious consequences for the marine ecosystems. Projections of ocean acidification are primarily determined from prescribed emission pathways within large scale earth system models. Rather than running the cumbersome earth system models, we can use a reduced-form model to quickly emulate the CMIP5 models for projection studies under arbitrary emission pathways and for uncertainty analyses of the marine carbonate system. In this study we highlight the capability of Hector v1.1, a reduced-form model, to project changes in the upper ocean carbonate system over the next three centuries. Hector is run under historical emissions and a high emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), comparing its output to observations and CMIP5 models that contain ocean biogeochemical cycles. Ocean acidification changes are already taking place, with significant changes projected to occur over the next 300 years. We project a low latitude (> 55°) surface ocean pH decrease from preindustrial conditions by 0.4 units to 7.77 at 2100, and an additional 0.27 units to 7.50 at 2300. Aragonite saturations decrease by 1.85 units to 2.21 at 2100 and an additional 0.80 units to 1.42 at 2300. Under a high emissions scenario, for every 1 °C of future warming we find a 0.107 unit pH decrease and a 0.438 unit decrease in aragonite saturations. Hector reproduces the global historical trends, and future projections with equivalent rates of change over time compared to observations and CMIP5 models. Hector is a robust tool that can be used for quick ocean acidification projections, accurately emulating large scale climate models under multiple emission pathways.
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Wang, Zhaoyu, Xiangnan Yu, Heli Liu, et al. "Pathway to the Zero Emission Utopia: a review." Manufacturing Review 11 (2024): 20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/mfreview/2024016.
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Attaining zero emissions stands as a key aspect of sustainable development. The conventional pathway, known as the “Zero Emissions Society (ZES)”, involves the use of renewable energy generation as an alternative to traditional fossil fuels and promotes the total de-carbonisation of the grid, ultimately leading to net-zero emissions. This requires the establishment of large-scale renewable energy power stations, increased transmission efficiency and energy storage facilities. In addition to this conventional pathway, this review introduces an innovative concept, termed “Zero Emission Utopia (ZEU)”, which originates from an individual-centric perspective. This novel approach enables the achievement of zero carbon emissions in human daily life activities and subsequent propagation of this practice extensively, actualising a zero-emissions scenario. An analysis of the available utopian sources of energy and distributed energy storage methods for this proposed pathway is conducted and presented. In addition, an evaluation case study, quantifying the renewable energy production capacity available to an individual, shows with the help of distributed energy storage methods, the ZEU pathway is feasible for normal families. Moreover, the constructive collaboration between these two pathways is explored, highlighting their potential for mutual enrichment and complementary advantages.
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Wang, Chonghao, and Boqiang Lin. "Managing Carbon Efficiency and Carbon Equity." Journal of Global Information Management 31, no. 1 (2023): 1–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/jgim.334360.
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China has committed to achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, primarily focusing on reducing carbon intensity. Understanding the regional embodied carbon emissions is critical for managing carbon efficiency and carbon equity in this process. Using the input-output and SBM-DEA models, this article first calculates China's regional embodied carbon emissions. The results reveal substantial carbon transfers between China's different regions. Therefore, designing reduction pathways solely based on production-based carbon emissions raises fairness concerns. To address this, this article employs the SBM-DEA model to calculate the regional reduction potential and marginal abatement costs using the regional embodied carbon emissions and optimize China's pathways of regional carbon emission reduction. The new pathways consider consumption-based reduction potential, marginal abatement cost, and reduction equity, and are all in line with China's carbon reduction target. These schemes are of practical significance for China to develop a more efficient and equitable regional emission reduction plan.
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Liu, Yun, Xing Pan, and Mengqi Wang. "Research on Carbon Emission Pathways and Scenario Models in the Building Sector." E3S Web of Conferences 580 (2024): 02009. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202458002009.
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Energy conservation and emission reduction constitute pivotal measures for advancing China’s high-quality development. Since 2020, the “Dual Carbon” initiative, encompassing carbon peaking and carbon neutrality, has emerged as a cornerstone of China’s national strategy. Carbon emissions throughout the lifecycle of buildings in the building sector exceed half of all energy-related carbon emissions. Understanding and managing carbon emission pathways and patterns, particularly in the context of energy-efficient green buildings, stands as a critical imperative within the current building industry. This study employs various scenario models to calculate and analyze the potential benefits of promoting green building applications under different scenarios. It also investigates how energy conservation primarily contributes to reducing carbon emissions.
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Wang, Yucheng. "Pathways to Carbon Neutrality in Civil Engineering." Applied and Computational Engineering 89, no. 1 (2024): 144–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.54254/2755-2721/89/20241118.
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Abstract. With the development of the global economy and trade exchanges worldwide, urban infrastructure and industrial development have become part of the competition among countries. However, the construction industry and the production of chemical materials emit a large amount of carbon dioxide, leading to the continuous deterioration of the environment, so it is necessary to effectively reduce emissions. As a synonym for global emission reduction, carbon neutrality plays an important role in different industries, especially in civil engineering. In this paper, we start with building materials and green construction to explore the realization of carbon neutrality at the source and center of carbon emission in civil engineering. Firstly, we introduce the low-carbon production technologies of cement and steel, including calcium recycling and membrane separation technology in the cement industry, high-temperature combustion technology and carbon capture technology in steel industry. Then, we take renewable concrete as an example to discuss the emission reduction path of green building materials. Finally, it outlines how to carry out green construction, introduces assembly carbon reduction technology and energy integration system, and demonstrates the possibility of this green construction program in the case of "T&A House".
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Chen, Wenjie, Xiaogang Wu, and Zhu Xiao. "The Influencing Factors and Emission Reduction Pathways for Carbon Emissions from Private Cars: A Scenario Simulation Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Maps." Sustainability 17, no. 5 (2025): 2268. https://doi.org/10.3390/su17052268.
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The promotion of carbon reduction in the private car sector is crucial for advancing sustainable transportation development and addressing global climate change. This study utilizes vehicle trajectory big data from Guangdong Province, China, and employs machine learning, an LDA topic model, a gradient descent-based fuzzy cognitive map model, and grey correlation analysis to investigate the influencing factors and emission reduction pathways of carbon emissions from private cars. The findings indicate that (1) population density exhibits the strongest correlation with private car carbon emissions, with a coefficient of 0.85, rendering it a key factor influencing emissions, (2) the development of public transportation emerges as the primary pathway for carbon reduction in the private car sector under a single-factor scenario, and (3) coordinating public transport with road network density and fuel prices with traffic congestion are both viable pathways as well for reducing carbon emissions in the private car sector. This study attempts to integrate multiple factors and private car carbon emissions within a unified research framework, exploring and elucidating carbon reduction pathways for private cars with the objective of providing valuable insights into the green and low-carbon transition of the transportation sector.
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Ma, Mingrui, Jiachen Cao, Dan Tong, Bo Zheng, and Yu Zhao. "Spatial and temporal evolution of future atmospheric reactive nitrogen deposition in China under different climate change mitigation strategies." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 25, no. 4 (2025): 2147–66. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-25-2147-2025.
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Abstract. Atmospheric reactive nitrogen (Nr) deposition plays a crucial role in linking air pollution to ecosystem risks. Previous modeling studies have indicated that climate change and pollution controls jointly result in significant changes in Nr deposition in China. However, it remains unclear how future emission reductions will influence Nr deposition under different climate pathways. Here, we investigated the spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of future Nr deposition under various national clean air and climate policies. We applied WRF-CMAQ and assessed the historical (2010s, 2010–2014) pattern and future changes of Nr deposition till the 2060s (2060–2064) in China, by combining two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) global climate pathways and three national emission control scenarios. The results show that the implementation of clean air and carbon neutrality policies would greatly reduce oxidized nitrogen (OXN) deposition, mitigate the adverse perturbations of climate change, and reduce the outflow from Eastern China (EC; 20–45° N, 110–125° E) to the western Pacific. In Northern China (NC; 30–45° N, 110–125° E), the weakened atmospheric oxidation capacity (AOC) would elevate the response of OXN deposition to a 20 % abatement of emissions (expressed as the ratio of percentage change of deposition to emissions) from 82.6 % in the 2010s to nearly 100 % in the 2060s. In contrast, the response of reduced nitrogen (RDN) deposition to NH3 emissions would decline, likely attributable to a more NH3-rich condition. The outcomes of this work broaden scientific understanding on how anthropogenic actions of air quality improvement and carbon emission reduction would reshape future Nr deposition and support effective policymaking to reduce associated ecological damage.
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Wang, Zhaoqiu, Yong Zhang, and Bo Wu. "Exploring Industrial Restructuring Pathways Based on Regional Carbon Productivity Variations: A Case Study of Jiangsu and Zhejiang Regions in China." E3S Web of Conferences 406 (2023): 04018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202340604018.
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The reduction of carbon emissions has emerged as a critical issue that requires urgent attention in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions as environmental concerns continue to grow. This paper examined how to achieve carbon emission reduction through industrial restructuring. The influence rela-tionship between industrial restructuring and carbon emissions was investigated using the Kaya constant equation LMDI decomposition method, while the coefficient of variation (CV) method was utilized to explore practical ways of promoting carbon emission reduction through industrial re-structuring. Data on carbon emissions and the economy from 12 core cities and 24 industries in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions from 2010 to 2020 were analyzed. The key findings of this study in-dicate that economic growth remains the primary driver of local carbon emission growth, while industrial restructuring and carbon emission intensity changes exhibit both positive and negative effects on carbon emission growth. The inhibitory effect of industrial structure upgrading on carbon emission growth can be weakened by regional industrial isomorphism. Furthermore, regional dis-parities in carbon emission intensity exist among some industries in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, and industrial restructuring based on carbon productivity variations has greater potential for emission reduction. The cities in these regions can encourage the development of industries with superior carbon productivity while regulating the growth of industries with inferior carbon productivity, allowing the optimal allocation of carbon emission credits from industries with lower productivity to those with higher efficiency, resulting in carbon emission reduction.
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Tong, Dan, Jing Cheng, Yang Liu, et al. "Dynamic projection of anthropogenic emissions in China: methodology and 2015–2050 emission pathways under a range of socio-economic, climate policy, and pollution control scenarios." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 20, no. 9 (2020): 5729–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-5729-2020.
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Abstract. Future trends in air pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for China are of great concern to the community. A set of global scenarios regarding future socio-economic and climate developments, combining shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) with climate forcing outcomes as described by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), was created by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Chinese researchers have also developed various emission scenarios by considering detailed local environmental and climate policies. However, a comprehensive scenario set connecting SSP–RCP scenarios with local policies and representing dynamic emission changes under local policies is still missing. In this work, to fill this gap, we developed a dynamic projection model, the Dynamic Projection model for Emissions in China (DPEC), to explore China's future anthropogenic emission pathways. The DPEC is designed to integrate the energy system model, emission inventory model, dynamic projection model, and parameterized scheme of Chinese policies. The model contains two main modules, an energy-model-driven activity rate projection module and a sector-based emission projection module. The activity rate projection module provides the standardized and unified future energy scenarios after reorganizing and refining the outputs from the energy system model. Here we use a new China-focused version of the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-China) to project future energy demand and supply in China under different SSP–RCP scenarios at the provincial level. The emission projection module links a bottom-up emission inventory model, the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), to GCAM-China and accurately tracks the evolution of future combustion and production technologies and control measures under different environmental policies. We developed technology-based turnover models for several key emitting sectors (e.g. coal-fired power plants, key industries, and on-road transportation sectors), which can simulate the dynamic changes in the unit/vehicle fleet turnover process by tracking the lifespan of each unit/vehicle on an annual basis. With the integrated modelling framework, we connected five SSP scenarios (SSP1–5), five RCP scenarios (RCP8.5, 7.0, 6.0, 4.5, and 2.6), and three pollution control scenarios (business as usual, BAU; enhanced control policy, ECP; and best health effect, BHE) to produce six combined emission scenarios. With those scenarios, we presented a wide range of China's future emissions to 2050 under different development and policy pathways. We found that, with a combination of strong low-carbon policy and air pollution control policy (i.e. SSP1-26-BHE scenario), emissions of major air pollutants (i.e. SO2, NOx, PM2.5, and non-methane volatile organic compounds – NMVOCs) in China will be reduced by 34 %–66 % in 2030 and 58 %–87 % in 2050 compared to 2015. End-of-pipe control measures are more effective for reducing air pollutant emissions before 2030, while low-carbon policy will play a more important role in continuous emission reduction until 2050. In contrast, China's emissions will remain at a high level until 2050 under a reference scenario without active actions (i.e. SSP3-70-BAU). Compared to similar scenarios set from the CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6), our estimates of emission ranges are much lower than the estimates from the harmonized CMIP6 emissions dataset in 2020–2030, but their emission ranges become similar in the year 2050.
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Sabah, Shabnam, M. Shahabuddin, Alireza Rahbari, Geoffrey Brooks, John Pye, and M. Akbar Rhamdhani. "Effect of gangue on CO2 emission for different decarbonisation pathways." Ironmaking & Steelmaking: Processes, Products and Applications 51, no. 4 (2024): 356–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/03019233241242553.
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At present, iron and steelmaking industry worldwide is going through the transition of decarbonisation to meet its goal of reaching net zero by 2050. In addition, Australian iron and steelmaking industry is facing its own challenge of processing lower grade ores with increasing gangue content. Two major pathways are direct reduction of iron – electric arc furnace pathway (DRI-EAF) and direct reduction of iron – electric smelter-BOF (DRI-electric smelter-BOF) pathway. In the present work, a mass and energy balance model of basic oxygen furnace (BOF) and electric arc furnace (EAF) have been developed using thermodynamic software. The EAF model showed that with 100 wt-% cold DRI, the specific electric energy requirement varied between 514 and 651 kWh/tls whereas in case of hot DRI, it varied between 399 kWh/tls and 510 kWh/tls. As the gangue content increased from 10.7 wt-% to 19.1 wt-%, yield decreased from 88 wt-% to 75.5 wt-% and slag weight increased from about 200 kg/tls to 630 kg/tls. The BOF model showed that the slag produced in a BOF varied between 63 kg/tls and 73 kg/tls for lower to higher grade ores reflecting different hot metal chemistry (P, Mn) coming from different ores. The results indicated that electric smelter-BOF is more compatible to process lower grade ores than EAF where quantity of slag and loss of yield are very high with increasing gangue content. CO2 emissions from H2DRI-EAF and H2DRI-electric smelter-BOF pathway for different types of ores increased with the increasing gangue content. For H2DRI-EAF pathway, as gangue content increases from 10.7 wt-% to 19.1 wt-%, CO2 emission rises from 0.10 t/tls to 0.19 t/tls as more limestone is needed to remove the gangue which also increases the production of CO2. In case of H2DRI-electric smelter-BOF pathway, CO2 emission increases from 0.12 t/tls to 0.19 t/tls with increasing gangue content. CO2 emissions from both pathways are significantly lower than the current BF-BOF pathway.
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Oda, Masato, and Nguyen Huu Chiem. "Rice plants reduce methane emissions in high-emitting paddies." F1000Research 7 (June 27, 2019): 1349. http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.15859.2.
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Background: Rice is understood to enhance methane emissions from paddy fields in IPCC guidelines. However, rice actually has two separate functions related to methane: i) emission enhancement, such as by providing emission pathways (aerenchyma) and methanogenetic substrates; and ii) emission suppression by providing oxygen pathways, which suppress methanogenesis or enhance methane oxidation. The overall role of rice is thus determined by the balance between its enhancing and suppressing functions. Although previous studies have suggested that rice enhances total methane emissions, we aimed to demonstrate in high-emitting paddy fields that the overall methane emission is decreased by rice plants. Methods: We compared methane emissions of with and without rice plants in triple cropping rice paddies in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. The gas samples are collected using chamber method and ware analyzed by gas chromatography. Results: We found that rice, in fact, suppressed overall methane emissions in high-emitting paddies. The emission reductions increased with the growth of rice to the maximum tillering stage, then decreased after the heading stage, and finally recovered. Discussion: Our result indicates that the overall methane emission by ebullition is larger than the overall emission of rice planted area. In addition, although many studies in standard-emitting paddies have found that the contribution of soil organic matter to methanogenesis is small, our results in high-emitting paddies suggest that methanogenesis depended mainly on soil organic matter accumulated from past crops. The higher the methane emission level, the lower the contribution of the rice-derived substrate; therefore, the role of rice in high-emitting paddies is the opposite to in that of standard-emitting paddies. Conclusion: The present study demonstrates that during the growing season, rice is suppressing methane emissions in high-emitting paddies. This means the significance of using the rice variety which has high suppressing performance in high-emitting paddies.
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Beusch, Lea, Zebedee Nicholls, Lukas Gudmundsson, Mathias Hauser, Malte Meinshausen, and Sonia I. Seneviratne. "From emission scenarios to spatially resolved projections with a chain of computationally efficient emulators: coupling of MAGICC (v7.5.1) and MESMER (v0.8.3)." Geoscientific Model Development 15, no. 5 (2022): 2085–103. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-2085-2022.
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Abstract. Producing targeted climate information at the local scale, including major sources of climate change projection uncertainty for diverse emissions scenarios, is essential to support climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts. Here, we present the first chain of computationally efficient Earth system model (ESM) emulators that allow for the translation of any greenhouse gas emission pathway into spatially resolved annual mean temperature anomaly field time series, accounting for both forced climate response and natural variability uncertainty at the local scale. By combining the global mean, emissions-driven emulator MAGICC with the spatially resolved emulator MESMER, ESM-specific and constrained probabilistic emulated ensembles can be derived. This emulator chain can hence build on and extend large multi-ESM ensembles such as the ones produced within the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The main extensions are threefold. (i) A more thorough sampling of the forced climate response and the natural variability uncertainty is possible, with millions of emulated realizations being readily created. (ii) The same uncertainty space can be sampled for any emission pathway, which is not the case in CMIP6, where only a limited number of scenarios have been explored and some of the most societally relevant strong mitigation scenarios have been run by only a small number of ESMs. (iii) Other lines of evidence to constrain future projections, including observational constraints, can be introduced, which helps to refine projected ranges beyond the multi-ESM ensembles' estimates. In addition to presenting results from the coupled MAGICC–MESMER emulator chain, we carry out an extensive validation of MESMER, which is trained on and applied to multiple emission pathways for the first time in this study. By coupling MAGICC and MESMER, we pave the way for rapid assessments of any emission pathway's regional climate change consequences and the associated uncertainties.
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Tang, Zhihua, Dianhong Li, and Huafang Guo. "Study on Carbon Emission Pathways in the Rural Areas of Guangdong Province." Energies 15, no. 23 (2022): 8886. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/en15238886.
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In response to global warming, China has formulated the “double carbon” strategic goals of peaking carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and reaching carbon neutrality before 2060. The problem of rural carbon emissions is often ignored due to underdeveloped industries and services. In this paper, the carbon emission pathways in the rural areas of Guangdong Province are investigated. Since energy consumption is the main source of carbon emissions, the factor analysis was used to analyze the main factors affecting rural household energy consumption and agricultural production energy consumption. Multiple linear regression was conducted to predict the rural energy consumption demand in Guangdong. Furthermore, the current situation and development trend of rural energy supply, demand and consumption structure, and the potential of renewable energy development were considered to predict carbon emissions in the rural areas of Guangdong. Moreover, the carbon emission pathways in the rural areas of Guangdong were discussed under two scenarios: the base scenario and the radical model.
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Okore, Luther, James Koske, and Sammy Letema. "Scenarios for Adoption of Low-Carbon Household Cooking Fuels in Biomass-Dependent Informal Settlements of Urban Sub-Saharan Africa: A Critical Analysis of Kisumu City." East African Journal of Environment and Natural Resources 7, no. 1 (2024): 28–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.37284/eajenr.7.1.1704.
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The use of unclean cooking fuels is widespread in urban informal settlements in Africa, while the adoption of clean fuels is largely done by stacking with traditional biomass fuels. Rapid urbanisation has aggravated the situation since it hampers effective planning for climate action and the provision of clean and affordable cooking fuels. It is, therefore, essential to deploy effective household carbon emissions (HCE) reduction strategies that are cognizant of the fuel use patterns and household dynamics of households in urban informal settlements. This study highlights the status of HCE in Kisumu City’s informal settlements and subsequently explores possible pathways for reducing emissions through the adoption of low-carbon cooking fuels. The paper features existing and plausible emissions scenarios in the informal settlements of Kisumu City. The study adopts a descriptive correlation research design targeting a sample 419 households drawn from seven informal settlements of Kisumu City. Binary logistic regression is used to establish the relationships that exist between household characteristics and the adoption of clean fuels. Multiple linear regression analysis reveals existing and probable emission pathways, informed by varying household characteristics and adjusting fuel-stacking scenarios. Household income has a positive correlation with adoption of clean fuel combinations (p<0.01), while household size does not have a significant relationship with adoption of clean fuels. The annual HCE attributable to cooking in Kisumu City’s informal settlements is 976 KgCO2. Fuel stacking nuances are vital considerations in choosing practical emission reduction pathways for these households. Emission reduction scenario that contemplates transitioning households that use charcoal in their fuel stacks to using LPG has the highest emission reduction potential of 72%. Although an emission scenario that includes LPG in the fuel mix of households that do not use it has an emission reduction potential of just 9%, it is the most realistic option since it accommodates the phenomenon of fuel stacking
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Harry-Ngei, N., I. Ubong, and E. Ojong. "Emission Rate Estimation of Fuel Oil in A Combustion System Using Empirical Method." European Journal of Engineering Research and Science 4, no. 12 (2019): 6–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.24018/ejers.2019.4.12.1574.
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This work highlighted the prediction of the emission rates of the products of combustion using a fuel oil of specific gravity of 0.9. The two reaction pathways of complete combustion and incomplete combustion were used differently to ascertain the emission rates. Ultimate analysis were conducted on the fuel oil to show the percentage composition of elements using ASTM 3178 method for carbon and hydrogen, Kjedahl method for nitrogen, ASTM D1552 for sulphur and the differences used to compute that of oxygen. The estimated percentages of the various elements were the stoichiometrically used to compute the emissions rates at standard conditions. The basis of the computation was a fuel oil flow rate of 10Tonnes/h and the following emission rates were predicted for the complete combustion reaction pathway: 31,246Kg/h for CO2, 65Kg/h for H2O, 158Kg/h for NO2 and 20Kg/h for SO2 while 9,940Kg/h for CO2, 15,623Kg/h for CO, 11,700Kg/h for H2O, 11Kg/h for H2S and 158Kg/h for NO2 were predicted for the incomplete combustion pathway. The study noted that this predictive path should be taken where effective devices or logistics are not in place to measure emissions from combustion systems.
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Harry-Ngei, N., I. Ubong, and E. Ojong. "Emission Rate Estimation of Fuel Oil in A Combustion System Using Empirical Method." European Journal of Engineering and Technology Research 4, no. 12 (2019): 6–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.24018/ejeng.2019.4.12.1574.
Full textAbstract:
This work highlighted the prediction of the emission rates of the products of combustion using a fuel oil of specific gravity of 0.9. The two reaction pathways of complete combustion and incomplete combustion were used differently to ascertain the emission rates. Ultimate analysis were conducted on the fuel oil to show the percentage composition of elements using ASTM 3178 method for carbon and hydrogen, Kjedahl method for nitrogen, ASTM D1552 for sulphur and the differences used to compute that of oxygen. The estimated percentages of the various elements were the stoichiometrically used to compute the emissions rates at standard conditions. The basis of the computation was a fuel oil flow rate of 10Tonnes/h and the following emission rates were predicted for the complete combustion reaction pathway: 31,246Kg/h for CO2, 65Kg/h for H2O, 158Kg/h for NO2 and 20Kg/h for SO2 while 9,940Kg/h for CO2, 15,623Kg/h for CO, 11,700Kg/h for H2O, 11Kg/h for H2S and 158Kg/h for NO2 were predicted for the incomplete combustion pathway. The study noted that this predictive path should be taken where effective devices or logistics are not in place to measure emissions from combustion systems.
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Oda, Masato, and Nguyen Huu Chiem. "Rice plants reduce methane emissions in high-emitting paddies." F1000Research 7 (July 25, 2019): 1349. http://dx.doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.15859.3.
Full textAbstract:
Background: Rice is understood to enhance methane emissions from paddy fields in IPCC guidelines. However, rice actually has two opposite functions related to methane: i) emission enhancement, such as by providing emission pathways (aerenchyma) and methanogenetic substrates; and ii) emission suppression by providing oxygen pathways, which suppress methanogenesis or enhance methane oxidation. The overall role of rice is thus determined by the balance between its enhancing and suppressing functions. Although previous studies have suggested that rice enhances total methane emissions, we aimed to demonstrate in high-emitting paddy fields that the overall methane emission is decreased by rice plants. Methods: We compared methane emissions with and without rice plants in triple cropping rice paddy fields in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam. The gas samples are collected using chamber method and ware analyzed by gas chromatography. Results: We found that rice, in fact, suppressed overall methane emissions in high-emitting paddies. The emission reductions increased with the growth of rice to the maximum tillering stage, then decreased after the heading stage, and finally recovered. Discussion: Our result indicates that the overall methane emission is larger than that of rice planted area. In addition, although many studies in standard-emitting paddies have found that the contribution of soil organic matter to methanogenesis is small, prior studies in high-emitting paddies suggest that methanogenesis depended mainly on soil organic matter accumulated from past crops. The higher the methane emission level, the lower the contribution of the rice-derived substrate; conversely, the higher the contribution of the rice providing oxygen. Finally, rice plants reduce methane emissions in high-emitting paddies. Conclusion: The present study demonstrates that during the growing season, rice is suppressing methane emissions in high-emitting paddies. This means the significance of using the rice variety which has high suppressing performance in high-emitting paddies.
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Jian, Kerong, Ruyun Shi, Yixue Zhang, and Zhigao Liao. "Research on Carbon Emission Characteristics and Differentiated Carbon Reduction Pathways in the Yangtze River Delta Region Based on the STIRPAT Model." Sustainability 15, no. 21 (2023): 15659. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su152115659.
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With the changes in the spatial structure of China’s economic development, urban clusters have become the primary carriers of China’s regional economy and green growth. We used annual data from 2010 to 2021 to study the carbon emission characteristics and carbon reduction pathways of 36 cities in the Yangtze River Delta region. Firstly, based on the decoupling elasticity coefficient and carbon intensity index, the researchers divided the cities in the Yangtze River Delta into six types of carbon emissions. Then, the STIRPAT model was used to regress the panel data of different carbon emission types for 11 years, analyze the driving factors of carbon emissions, and develop differentiated carbon emission reduction paths for cities with six carbon emission types. According to the results, the cities of Type I need to accelerate low-carbon technology innovation; the cities of Type II need to improve energy efficiency and strengthen low-carbon technology research and development; the cities of Type V need to suppress foreign investment in high-energy consumption and high-emission projects in the local area; the cities of Type VI need to accelerate the process of new urbanization and optimize industrial structure. However, the researchers found that the cities of Types III and IV have not yet received effective emission reduction pathways, and their emission reduction policies and measures need to be further studied.
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Alaux, N., B. Truger, T. Lackner, et al. "Public buildings: Life-cycle GHG emission scenarios and reduction trajectories by 2050." Journal of Physics: Conference Series 2600, no. 15 (2023): 152013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/2600/15/152013.
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Abstract Responsible for 37% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the construction and operation of buildings involves substantial potential to mitigate climate change. Although they represent only a small part of the building stock, publicly-owned buildings can lead by example and stimulate emission reductions through public procurement processes that are aligned with existing climate goals. In this paper, possible GHG emission reduction pathways for public office buildings in Austria are explored. A building stock model for Austria’s publicly-owned office buildings is developed, which projects operational and embodied GHG emissions from new construction, renovation and demolition until 2050. Findings show that phasing out fossil fuel use in building operations by 2050 enables GHG emission pathways that are compatible with the Carbon Law but still exceed Austria’s available carbon budget for public office buildings. A higher renovation rate can facilitate the fossil fuel phase-out by reducing energy demand. Embodied GHG emissions are becoming increasingly important and the main source of GHG emissions when phasing out fossil fuels in space heating. More research and policies are therefore needed to accelerate reductions of embodied GHG emissions towards net zero.
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Karakosta, Charikleia, and Jason Papathanasiou. "Decarbonizing the Construction Sector: Strategies and Pathways for Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction." Energies 18, no. 5 (2025): 1285. https://doi.org/10.3390/en18051285.
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The construction sector is a significant contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, necessitating urgent decarbonization efforts to align with international climate goals such as the Paris Agreement and the European Green Deal. This study explores a comprehensive framework for construction companies to map and reduce their GHG emissions through a structured four-step approach: defining emission scopes, conducting GHG inventories, setting reduction targets, and planning actionable reductions. Four key pathways are proposed: electricity decarbonization through renewable energy adoption and energy efficiency measures; direct emissions reduction via fleet electrification and infrastructure optimization; recycling and resource efficiency improvements through waste diversion and material reuse; and supply chain emissions reduction by enforcing sustainability standards and responsible sourcing practices. The analysis highlights the importance of integrating technological, organizational, and policy-driven solutions, such as rooftop photovoltaic systems, virtual power purchase agreements, waste management strategies, and supplier codes of conduct aligned with global sustainability benchmarks. The study concludes that construction companies can achieve significant emission reductions by adopting a structured, multi-pathway approach; emphasizing progress over perfection; and aligning their strategies with national and international climate targets. This research provides actionable insights for the construction sector to transition toward a net-zero future by 2050.
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Yue, Xu, Hong Liao, Huijun Wang, et al. "Pathway dependence of ecosystem responses in China to 1.5 °C global warming." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 20, no. 4 (2020): 2353–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-2353-2020.
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Abstract. China is currently the world's largest emitter of both CO2 and short-lived air pollutants. Ecosystems in China help mitigate a part of the country's carbon emissions, but they are subject to perturbations in CO2, climate, and air pollution. Here, we use a dynamic vegetation model and data from three model inter-comparison projects to examine ecosystem responses in China under different emission pathways towards the 1.5 ∘C warming target set by the Paris Agreement. At 1.5 ∘C warming, gross primary productivity (GPP) increases by 15.5±5.4 % in a stabilized pathway and 11.9±4.4 % in a transient pathway. CO2 fertilization is the dominant driver of GPP enhancement and climate change is the main source of uncertainties. However, differences in ozone and aerosols explain the GPP differences between pathways at 1.5 ∘C warming. Although the land carbon sink is weakened by 17.4±19.6 % in the stabilized pathway, the ecosystems mitigate 10.6±1.4 % of national emissions in the stabilized pathway, more efficient than the fraction of 6.3±0.8 % in the transient pathway. To achieve the 1.5 ∘C warming target, our analysis suggests a higher allowable carbon budget for China under a stabilized pathway with reduced emissions in both CO2 and air pollutants.
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Li, Zimo. "Pathways to Sustainable Aviation through Electric Aircraft and Emerging Technologies." Highlights in Science, Engineering and Technology 121 (December 24, 2024): 539–44. https://doi.org/10.54097/35hhkg04.
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The aviation industry is a major contributor to global emissions, noise pollution, and energy inefficiency, driving the need for sustainable solutions. Electric aircraft have emerged as a promising alternative, offering potential benefits such as reduced emissions, lower noise levels, and improved energy efficiency. This paper explores the advantages of electric aircraft, focusing on noise reduction, emission cuts, and enhanced energy efficiency, while also addressing the current limitations of battery technology, such as low specific energy and reserve requirements. Despite these challenges, startups are actively developing new battery technologies, such as solid-state and pouch cells, to overcome these barriers. Additionally, the paper examines alternative sustainable technologies, including hydrogen fuel and biofuels, which could complement electric aircraft in achieving low-emission aviation. The report concludes that although widespread adoption of electric aircraft may not be immediate, advancements in technology and integrated solutions will likely drive the aviation industry's transition to a more sustainable future.
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Peng, Jingyao, Yidi Sun, Junnian Song, and Wei Yang. "Exploring Potential Pathways toward Energy-Related Carbon Emission Reduction in Heavy Industrial Regions of China: An Input–Output Approach." Sustainability 12, no. 5 (2020): 2148. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12052148.
Full textAbstract:
It is a very urgent issue to reduce energy-related carbon emissions in China. The three northeastern provinces (Heilongjiang (HLJ), Jilin (JL), and Liaoning (LN)) are typical heavy industrial regions in China, playing an important role in the national carbon emission reduction target. In this study, we analyzed the energy consumption, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, and CO2 emission intensity of each sector in the three regions, and we compared them with the national level and those of China’s most developed province Guangdong (GD). Then, based on an input–output (I–O) framework, linkage analysis of production and CO2 emission from sector–system and sector–sector dimensions was conducted. The results showed that the three regions accounted for about 1/10 of China’s energy consumption and 1/6 of China’s CO2 emissions in 2012. In addition, the level of energy structure, CO2 emission intensity, and sectoral structure lagged behind China’s average level, much lower than those for GD. According to the sectoral characteristics of each region and unified backward/forward linkages of production and CO2 emissions, we divided sectoral clusters into those whose development was to be encouraged and those whose development was to be restricted. The results of this paper could provide policy–makers with reference to exploring potential pathways toward energy-related carbon emission reduction in heavy industrial regions.
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Yang, Guoshu, Anni Guo, and Gaijing Zhang. "Research on Implementation Pathways for Near-Zero Carbon Emissions in High-Density Urban Districts." E3S Web of Conferences 617 (2025): 02013. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202561702013.
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During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the transition to low-carbon development in urban and rural construction has increasingly focused on achieving scalable low-carbon development and piloting near-zero carbon emission projects at the meso-scales and micro-scales. High-density urban districts in city centers serve as ideal settings for implementing near-zero carbon emission demonstration projects. Taking a high- density, high-quality urban districts in Shanghai as an example, this study proposes a pathway for implementing key technologies for near-zero carbon urban districts through a dual approach of “carbon source reduction” and “carbon sink enhancement,” summarized as the “Two-Lows and Four-Aspects” strategy（low-energy buildings, low-emission transportation, resource circulation, ecological landscaping, energy maximization, and digital management ） . Additionally, the feasibility of achieving near-zero carbon emissions in high-density urban districts is calculated and validated, providing a practical reference for similar high-density urban projects aiming for near-zero carbon emissions.
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TOMAR, ALKA, and N. C. GUPTA AND B. S. MEENA. "Decarbonisation Pathways for Net-Zero Emissions in India: A Case Study of Thermal Power Industry." JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENT AND BIO-SCIENCE 38, no. 02 (2024): 267. https://doi.org/10.59467/jebs.2024.38.267.
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Resulting from the fast-approaching climate change limits, the global stakeholders have begun to prioritize net-zero emission as the ideal path to move forward. India prime source of emission is the energy sector as India progresses toward more industrialization. APublic Sector Undertaking is the biggest electricity producer, accounting for 25% of India electricity needs and therefore, its decarbonization is imperative to meet the climate goals. In this paper, we investigate a leading thermal power industry decarbonization strategy and analyze their emission profile and net-zero efforts by looking at their thermal power unit which supplies electricity to the National Capital Region (NCR) of Delhi. In this regard, we procured primary data through a questionnaire during a semi-structured interview with their sustainability team. Further, visits were conducted to collect primary monthly emissions and decarbonization data from its Delhi NCR power plant. We have studied the data to analyze the seasonal trends in Delhi NCR power plant emission profile and observed their carbon sequestration efforts. The carbon sequestration through nature-based solutions, enhanced renewable energy portfolio, energy, and fuel efficiency, carbon capture, utilization, and storage technologies, carbon credits, business responsibility and sustainability reporting, and global reporting initiative reporting frameworks, among other decarbonization strategy, will accelerate their net-zero emission goals ahead of 2070 target. . KEYWORDS :Climate change, Corporate sustainability, Industrial decarbonization, Nature-based solutions, Scope emissions
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Hoang Ha, Anh, and Tran Minh Da Hanh. "Vietnam’s energy-related carbon emissions projections for the shared socioeconomic pathways towards net zero emission: a system dynamic analysis." International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management 42 (October 21, 2024): 72–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.54337/ijsepm.8327.
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Vietnam, a rapidly growing economy with high energy demand, aims for net-zero emissions by 2050. This study employs a system dynamic model to analyze the complex dynamics of energy-related carbon emissions. Historical data from 1990 to 2020 and predictions up to 2050 under five shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios were used. Sensitivity analysis identifies GDP.PPP growth rate, energy intensity, and energy structure as key drivers of energy consumption and carbon emissions. Predictions show that energy consumption and emissions peak in SSP5, followed by SSP1, SSP2, SSP4, and SSP3. By 2050, Vietnam's energy consumption and carbon emissions are expected to peak at 16,536,323 TJ and 1001 Mt CO2, respectively. While all scenarios meet the 2030 emission targets, they fail to meet the 2050 targets, with SSP5 requiring the most significant emission reductions. Without robust policy interventions, Vietnam may struggle to achieve its net-zero emission goal, emphasizing the need to promote energy-efficient sectors and transition to renewable energy sources.
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Kvale, K., K. Zickfeld, T. Bruckner, K. J. Meissner, K. Tanaka, and A. J. Weaver. "Carbon dioxide emission pathways avoiding dangerous ocean impacts." Weather, Climate, and Society 4, no. 3 (2012): 212–29. https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-11-00030.1.
Full textAbstract:
Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases could lead to undesirable effects on oceans in coming centuries. Drawing on recommendations published by the German Advisory Council on Global Change, levels of unacceptable global marine change (so-called guardrails) are defined in terms of global mean temperature, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. A global-mean climate model [the Aggregated Carbon Cycle, Atmospheric Chemistry and ClimateModel (ACC2)] is coupledwith an economicmodule [taken fromthe Dynamic Integrated Climate–EconomyModel (DICE)] to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis to derive CO2 emission pathways that both minimize abatement costs and are compatible with these guardrails. Additionally, the ‘‘tolerable windows approach’’ is used to calculate a range of CO2 emissions paths that obey the guardrails as well as a restriction on mitigation rate. Prospects of meeting the global mean temperature change guardrail (28 and 0.28C decade21 relative to preindustrial) depend strongly on assumed values for climate sensitivity: at climate sensitivities .38C the guardrail cannot be attained under any CO2 emissions reduction strategy without mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gases. The ocean acidification guardrail (0.2 unit pHdecline relative to preindustrial) is less restrictive than the absolute temperature guardrail at climate sensitivities .2.58C but becomes more constraining at lower climate sensitivities. The sea level rise and rate of rise guardrails (1 m and 5 cm decade21) are substantially less stringent for ice sheet sensitivities derived in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, but they may already be committed to violation if ice sheet sensitivities consistent with semiempirical sea level rise projections are assumed.
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Taheripour, Farzad, Steffen Mueller, Isaac Emery, et al. "Biofuels Induced Land Use Change Emissions: The Role of Implemented Land Use Emission Factors." Sustainability 16, no. 7 (2024): 2729. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su16072729.
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Biofuels’ induced land-use change (ILUC) emissions have been widely studied over the past 15 years. Many studies have addressed uncertainties associated with these estimates. These studies have broadly examined uncertainties associated with the choice of economic models, their assumptions and parameters, and a few bio-physical variables. However, uncertainties in land-use emission factors that represent the soil and vegetation carbon contents of various land types across the world and are used to estimate carbon fluxes due to land conversions are mostly overlooked. This paper calls attention to this important omission. It highlights some important sources of uncertainty in land-use emissions factors, explores the range in these factors from established data sources, and compares the influence of their variability on ILUC emissions for several sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) pathways. The estimated land-use changes for each pathway are taken from a well-known computable general equilibrium model, GTAP-BIO. Two well-known carbon calculator models (CCLUB and AEZ-EF) that represent two different sets of emissions factors are used to convert the GTAP-BIO estimated land-use changes to ILUC emissions. The results show that the calculated ILUC emissions obtained from these carbon calculators for each examined SAF pathway are largely different, even for the same amortization time horizon. For example, the ILUC emissions values obtained from the AEZ-EF and CCLUB models for producing jet fuel from corn ethanol for a 25-year amortization period are 24.9 gCO2e/MJ and 15.96 gCO2e/MJ, respectively. This represents a 60% difference between the results of these two carbon calculators for the same set of land-use changes. The results show larger differences for other pathways as well.
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Dill, Alexandra, Tristan R. Brown, Robert W. Malmsheimer, et al. "Quantifying the Financial and Climate Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Abatement Pathways in Residential Space Heating." Sustainability 16, no. 5 (2024): 2135. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su16052135.
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New York State (NYS) has set strict greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets across all sectors of its economy, including the heating sector. This study examines the financial value and environmental impacts of the residential space heating sector in NYS under different GHG abatement options by comparing the existing natural gas heating pathway with three potential GHG abatement pathways: renewable natural gas (RNG), hydrogen blended into RNG, and air-source heat pumps (ASHPs). These pathways are analyzed via a comparative net present value (NPV) framework from 2022 to 2042 with the emission reduction represented as a revenue stream that serves as a function of the social cost of GHGs. The investment timing of each of these pathways is also accounted for to reflect the pathways’ varying deployment timelines. The ASHP pathway with a 10% financial discount rate and a 2% social cost of the GHG discount rate achieves the lowest NPV. The RNG pathway achieves the highest NPV. A sensitivity analysis determines the impact of key factors on the NPV results. This study aims to inform policymakers, homeowners, and stakeholders of the potential benefits and costs of each of the four pathways to aid them in their decision-making process.
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Hao, Chunxiao, Yunshan Ge, Jindong Liang, Zhuoshi He, Zhihui Huang, and Guangyu Dou. "Research on Promotion Pathways for Zero-Emission Medium- and Heavy-Duty Trucks: A Case Study of Hainan Island." Atmosphere 14, no. 5 (2023): 882. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos14050882.
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Promoting the use of zero-emission vehicles is an important measure for reducing pollutant and carbon dioxide emissions from medium- and heavy-duty trucks (MHDTs). This study took Hainan Island as an example. Based on big data such as industrial layout and traffic flow, it clarified that the main channels of freight transportation on Hainan Island are concentrated in the northern region, including the surrounding areas of Haikou; the important ports of Haikou, Yangpu, and Basuo; and Chengmai and Tunchang counties. Furthermore, pathways for the promotion of zero-emission MHDTs are proposed, which can reduce exhaust emissions by 1549 tons of NOx, 62 tons of particulate matter (PM), and 3.60 million tons of CO2 by 2030. Compared with the vehicle type categorization plan, the spatial layout plan can achieve higher emission reduction benefits in the medium term (2025). In addition, in conjunction with existing policies and planning requirements, this study also puts forward policy suggestions for the promotion of zero-emission MHDTs.
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Kvale, K., K. Zickfeld, T. Bruckner, K. J. Meissner, K. Tanaka, and A. J. Weaver. "Carbon Dioxide Emission Pathways Avoiding Dangerous Ocean Impacts." Weather, Climate, and Society 4, no. 3 (2012): 212–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/wcas-d-11-00030.1.
Full textAbstract:
Abstract Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases could lead to undesirable effects on oceans in coming centuries. Drawing on recommendations published by the German Advisory Council on Global Change, levels of unacceptable global marine change (so-called guardrails) are defined in terms of global mean temperature, sea level rise, and ocean acidification. A global-mean climate model [the Aggregated Carbon Cycle, Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model (ACC2)] is coupled with an economic module [taken from the Dynamic Integrated Climate–Economy Model (DICE)] to conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis to derive CO2 emission pathways that both minimize abatement costs and are compatible with these guardrails. Additionally, the “tolerable windows approach” is used to calculate a range of CO2 emissions paths that obey the guardrails as well as a restriction on mitigation rate. Prospects of meeting the global mean temperature change guardrail (2° and 0.2°C decade−1 relative to preindustrial) depend strongly on assumed values for climate sensitivity: at climate sensitivities &gt;3°C the guardrail cannot be attained under any CO2 emissions reduction strategy without mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gases. The ocean acidification guardrail (0.2 unit pH decline relative to preindustrial) is less restrictive than the absolute temperature guardrail at climate sensitivities &gt;2.5°C but becomes more constraining at lower climate sensitivities. The sea level rise and rate of rise guardrails (1 m and 5 cm decade−1) are substantially less stringent for ice sheet sensitivities derived in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report, but they may already be committed to violation if ice sheet sensitivities consistent with semiempirical sea level rise projections are assumed.
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Jiang, Xinjie, and Fengjun Xie. "Decomposition Analysis of Carbon Emission Drivers and Peaking Pathways for Key Sectors under China’s Dual Carbon Goals: A Case Study of Jiangxi Province, China." Sustainability 16, no. 13 (2024): 5811. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su16135811.
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Clarifying the factors influencing CO2 emissions and their peaking pathways in major sectors holds significant practical importance for achieving regional dual-carbon goals. This paper takes Jiangxi, a less developed demonstration zone in central China, as an example. It pioneeringly combines the LMDI method, Tapio decoupling model, and LEAP model to multi-dimensionally analyze the driving mechanisms, evolution patterns, and dynamic relationships with the economic development of carbon emissions in Jiangxi’s key sectors from 2007 to 2021. It also explores the future carbon emission trends and peaking potentials of various sectors under different scenarios. Our results show that (1) Carbon emissions in various sectors in Jiangxi have continued to grow over the past fifteen years, and although some sectors have seen a slowdown in emission growth, most still rely on traditional fossil fuels; (2) Economic growth and industrial structure effects are the main drivers of carbon emission increases, with a general trend towards decoupling achieved across sectors, while agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and ferrous metal smelting have shown a decline in their decoupling status; (3) In the carbon reduction and low-carbon scenarios, the carbon emission peaks in Jiangxi are estimated to be 227.5 Mt and 216.4 Mt, respectively, and targeted strategies for high-emission industries will facilitate a phased peak across sectors and enhance emissions reduction benefits. This has significant reference value for the central region and even globally in formulating differentiated, phased, sector-specific carbon peaking plans, and exploring pathways for high-quality economic development in tandem with ecological civilization construction.
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Scherer, U., S. Fuchs, H. Behrendt, and T. Hillenbrand. "Emissions of heavy metals into river basins of Germany." Water Science and Technology 47, no. 7-8 (2003): 251–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.2166/wst.2003.0696.
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The input of seven heavy metals (Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb and Zn) into the large river basins of Germany via various point and diffuse pathways were estimated for the period of 1985 through 2000. To quantify the emissions via point sources a nationwide survey on heavy metal data of municipal wastewater treatment plants and industrial direct discharges was carried out. The input via diffuse pathways was calculated using an adapted version of the model MONERIS. This model accounts for the significant transport processes, and it includes a Geographical Information System (GIS) that provides digital maps as well as extensive statistical information. For a comparison of the calculated heavy metal emission with the measured heavy metal load at monitoring stations the losses of heavy metals due to retention processes within the river systems have to be considered. Therefore heavy metal retention was calculated according to the retention functions given by Vink and Behrendt. For the large river basins a good correspondence could be found between estimated and measured heavy metal loads in rivers. The total emission into the North Sea decreased for each metal during the period of 1985 to 2000. The reduction varies between 87% for Hg and 41% for Ni mainly caused by the decline via point sources. Today's emissions of heavy metals into river basins of Germany are dominated by the input via diffuse pathways. The most important diffuse emission pathways are “paved urban areas” and “erosion”.
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Dewi, Retno Gumilang, Megawati Zunita, Gissa Navira Sevie, Nirma Afrisanti Kifnasih, and Novi Syaftika. "Selecting Indonesia’s Iron and Steel Industry Mitigation Pathways Based on AIM/End-use Assessment." Jurnal Riset Teknologi Pencegahan Pencemaran Industri 15, no. 1 (2024): 21–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.21771/jrtppi.2024.v15.no1.p21-32.
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The measurement of mitigation pathways is important for Indonesia’s iron and steel industry in terms of reducing GHG emissions. This study conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis to assess the economic impacts with associated emission reduction potential of different mitigation strategies by developing an Abatement Cost Curve (ACC) that selects the mitigation option based on the logic of the AIM/End-use model up to 2050. The model was established through the baseline scenario, and the following appropriate mitigation options: adjusting the production structure (CM1), increasing energy efficiency by promoting low carbon technology and non-blast furnace technology that is un-implemented early in modeling years in Indonesia will be included for future reference (CM2), and switching from fossil fuels to low emission fuels (CM3). Results show that the selected technology roadmap from the abatement cost curve below carbon tax 110 US$/tCO2e in 2050 could lead to the most optimal emission reduction of 19.8 MtCO2e, 50.2 MtCO2e, 54.84 MtCO2e with investment costs 93.55 million US$, 1086 million US$, and 1183 million US$ in the scenarios CM1, CM2, and CM3, respectively. The effectiveness of each mitigation action reveals that energy savings and emission reduction from energy will rely mostly on promoting low-carbon technologies. The most effective strategy to reduce emissions from IPPU is to adjust the production structure.