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Journal articles on the topic 'ENSO-index'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 6 September 2023

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1

Lu, Bo, Fei-Fei Jin, and Hong-Li Ren. "A Coupled Dynamic Index for ENSO Periodicity." Journal of Climate 31, no. 6 (2018): 2361–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-17-0466.1.

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El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most active interannual climatic mode, with great global impacts. The state-of-the-art climate models can simulate this dominant mode variability to a large extent. Nevertheless, some of ENSO’s fundamental time–space characteristics still have a large spread in the simulations across the array of recent climate models. For example, the large biases of ENSO periodicity still exist among model simulations from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Based on the recharge oscillator framework, a coupled dynamic index for ENSO period

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2

Lv, Aifeng, Lei Fan, and Wenxiang Zhang. "Impact of ENSO Events on Droughts in China." Atmosphere 13, no. 11 (2022): 1764. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos13111764.

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The El Niño Southe58rn Oscillation (ENSO) is a typical oscillation affecting climate change, and its stable periodicity, long-lasting effect, and predictable characteristics have become important indicators for regional climate prediction. In this study, we analyze the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), the Niño3.4 index, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI). Additionally, we explore the spatial and temporal distribution of the correlation coefficients between ENSO and SPEI and the time lag between ENSO events of varying intensiti

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3

Evans, M. N., R. G. Fairbanks, and J. L. Rubenstone. "A proxy index of ENSO teleconnections." Nature 394, no. 6695 (1998): 732–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/29424.

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Aprilia, Bunga, Marzuki Marzuki, and Imam Taufiq. "Prediksi El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Menggunakan Jaringan Saraf Tiruan (JST)-Backpropagation." Jurnal Fisika Unand 9, no. 4 (2021): 421–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.25077/jfu.9.4.421-427.2020.

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Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk memprediksi nilai indeks ENSO yaitu Sea Surface Temperature (Nino 1.2, Nino 3, Nino 3.4 dan Nino 4), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) dan Multivariate ENSO Index versi 2 (MEI.v2) yang diambil dari tahun 1979-2018. Prediksi dilakukan dengan menggunakan metode JST-backpropagation dengan memvariasikan learning rate dan momentum. Semua indeks menghasilkan nilai akurasi prediksi ENSO yang tinggi, namun indeks Nino 4 merupakan indeks yang memiliki akurasi tertinggi karena nilai Mean Square Error (MSE) pelatihan dan pengujiannya yang relatif lebih kecil dibandingkan den

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Westra, Seth, Benjamin Renard, and Mark Thyer. "The ENSO–Precipitation Teleconnection and Its Modulation by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation." Journal of Climate 28, no. 12 (2015): 4753–73. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00722.1.

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Abstract This study evaluates the role of the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO) in modulating the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–precipitation relationship. The standard IPO index is described together with several alternatives that were derived using a low-frequency ENSO filter, demonstrating that an equivalent IPO index can be obtained as a low-frequency version of ENSO. Several statistical artifacts that arise from using a combination of raw and smoothed ENSO indices in modeling the ENSO–precipitation teleconnection are then described. These artifacts include the potentially spuri

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Lin, Chen-Chih, Yi-Jiun Liou, and Shih-Jen Huang. "Impacts of Two-Type ENSO on Rainfall over Taiwan." Advances in Meteorology 2015 (2015): 1–7. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2015/658347.

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Impacts of two-type ENSO (El Niño/Southern Oscillation), canonical ENSO and ENSO Modoki, on rainfall over Taiwan are investigated by the monthly mean rainfall data accessed from Taiwan Central Weather Bureau. The periods of the two-type ENSO are distinguished by Niño 3.4 index and ENSO Modoki index (EMI). The rainfall data in variously geographical regions are analyzed with the values of Niño 3.4 and EMI by correlation method. Results show that the seasonal rainfalls over Taiwan are different depending on the effects of two-type ENSO. In canonical El Niño episode, the rainfall increases in win

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7

Koem, S., R. J. Lahay, and S. K. Nasib. "The sensitivity of meteorological drought index towards El Nino-Southern Oscillation." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 1089, no. 1 (2022): 012005. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1089/1/012005.

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Abstract El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contributes to the regional climates, such as precipitation and droughts. The objectives of the present work were to: (1) identify the severity index; (2) analyze the correlation of SPI and RDI, and; (3) identify the response of SPI and RDI towards ENSO. SPI and RDI were calculated for time scales (3, 6, and 12 months), and these represented the seasonal and annual drought. The identification of the responses of the drought severity index, based on ENSO, consisted of several thresholds, namely weak, moderate, and strong. The correlational value and

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Ziemke, J. R., S. Chandra, L. D. Oman, and P. K. Bhartia. "A new ENSO index derived from satellite measurements of column ozone." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions 10, no. 2 (2010): 2859–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acpd-10-2859-2010.

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Abstract. Column Ozone measured in tropical latitudes from Nimbus 7 TOMS, Earth Probe TOMS, NOAA SBUV, and Aura OMI satellite instruments are used to derive an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index. This index, which covers a time period from 1979 to the present, is defined as the Ozone ENSO Index (OEI) and is the first developed from atmospheric trace gas measurements. Using a data mining technique with existing ENSO indices of surface pressure and sea-surface temperature, the OEI is constructed by first averaging monthly mean column ozone over two broad regions in the western and eastern

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9

Xu, Zhen, and G. Cornelis van Kooten. "The El Niño Southern Oscillation index and wildfire prediction in British Columbia." Forestry Chronicle 90, no. 05 (2014): 592–98. http://dx.doi.org/10.5558/tfc2014-122.

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This study investigates the potential to predict monthly wildfires and area burned in British Columbia's interior using El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) and the generalized Pareto (GP) distributions are used, respectively, to account for uncertainty in wildfire frequency and area burned. Results indicate that a four-month lag of the ENSO index has a strong positive influence on monthly wildfire occurrence. Upon fitting the GP distribution with a logit model regressed on the ENSO index, we predict the probabilities that monthly area burned exceeds

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10

Beckers, Joost V. L., Albrecht H. Weerts, Erik Tijdeman, and Edwin Welles. "ENSO-conditioned weather resampling method for seasonal ensemble streamflow prediction." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 20, no. 8 (2016): 3277–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-3277-2016.

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Abstract. Oceanic–atmospheric climate modes, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), are known to affect the local streamflow regime in many rivers around the world. A new method is proposed to incorporate climate mode information into the well-known ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) method for seasonal forecasting. The ESP is conditioned on an ENSO index in two steps. First, a number of original historical ESP traces are selected based on similarity between the index value in the historical year and the index value at the time of forecast. In the second step, additional ensemble trace

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SINGH, O. P., TARIQ MASOOD ALI KHAN, SAZEDUR RAHMAN, and SALAH UDDIN. "Summer monsoon rainfall over Bangladesh in relation to Multivariate ENSO Index." MAUSAM 51, no. 3 (2021): 255–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v51i3.1783.

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The relationship between monthly rainfall over Bangladesh during monsoon season and bi-monthly Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) pertaining to the period from first week of previous month to first week of the month under consideration, has been investigated. The MEI is calculated as the first Principal Component (PC) of six variables over the tropical Pacific, viz., sea surface temperature, sea level pressure, zonal and meridional components of the surface wind, surface air temperature and total cloudiness fraction of the sky. The MEI values for prognostic purposes are available by the first week

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CHATTOPADHYAY, J., and R. BHATLA. "A re-examination of ENSO/ anti-ENSO events and simultaneous performance of the Indian summer monsoon." MAUSAM 47, no. 1 (2021): 59–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v47i1.3686.

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The relationship between ENSO/anti-ENSO events in the Pacific basin and simultaneous all India monsoon has been re-examined for the period 1901-1990 using Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The result shows that there is fairly strong association between ENSO events and dry monsoon years. There exists a weak teleconnection between anti-ENSO events and wet monsoon indicating that anti-ENSO events have only a moderate impact on the Indian monsoon rainfall. Developing ENSO (anti-ENSO) episodes during the monsoon season indicates non-occurrence of simultaneous floods (droughts) with a very high deg

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Liu, Zhiqing, and Jianjun Xu. "Increase in the Intensity of Air–Sea Coupling in the Key ENSO Region during 1955–2020." Atmosphere 13, no. 12 (2022): 2025. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos13122025.

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The El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a phenomenon of air–sea coupling in the tropical Pacific, has strong response to global climate change. In this study, the primary region where ENSO occurred during the period 1955–2020 was selected as the key ENSO region, and the changes in air–sea coupling in this region were explored. The New Southern Oscillation Index (NSOI), modified from the previous Southern Oscillation Index, represents atmospheric changes, and the Niño-3.4 index represents oceanic changes. The absolute value of the running correlation coefficient between the Niño-3.4 index

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Kemarau, Ricky Anak, and Oliver Valentine Eboy. "The Impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Temperature: A Case Study in Kuching, Sarawak." Malaysian Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities (MJSSH) 6, no. 1 (2021): 289–97. http://dx.doi.org/10.47405/mjssh.v6i1.602.

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The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event is a climate event that has an impact on the world climate. The effects of ENSO are often associated with prolonged droughts and floods since 1980 following global climate change. In addition to causing flooding and drought. Indirectly, the occurrence of ENSO causes health problems, environmental destruction, affecting economic activities such as agriculture and fisheries. Many studies on ENSO have been conducted. However, there is still a lack of research on the effect of ENSO on temperature in local knowledge areas, especially urban areas because

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Choi, Jung, Soon-Il An, Sang-Wook Yeh, and Jin-Yi Yu. "ENSO-Like and ENSO-Induced Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability in CGCMs." Journal of Climate 26, no. 5 (2013): 1485–501. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00118.1.

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Abstract Outputs from coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) are used in examining tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV) and their relationships with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Herein TPDV is classified as either ENSO-induced TPDV (EIT) or ENSO-like TPDV (ELT), based on their correlations with a decadal modulation index of ENSO amplitude and spatial pattern. EIT is identified by the leading EOF mode of the low-pass filtered equatorial subsurface temperature anomalies and is highly correlated with the decadal ENSO modulation index. This mode is characterized by an east–west

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Conti, G., A. Navarra, and J. Tribbia. "The ENSO Transition Probabilities." Journal of Climate 30, no. 13 (2017): 4951–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0490.1.

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ENSO is investigated here by considering it as a transition from different states. Transition probability matrices can be defined to describe the evolution of ENSO in this way. Sea surface temperature anomalies are classified into four categories, or states, and the probability to move from one state to another has been calculated for both observations and a simulation from a GCM. This could be useful for understanding and diagnosing general circulation models elucidating the mechanisms that govern ENSO in models. Furthermore, these matrices have been used to define a predictability index of E

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Suhaila, Jamaludin. "Functional Data Visualization and Outlier Detection on the Anomaly of El Niño Southern Oscillation." Climate 9, no. 7 (2021): 118. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli9070118.

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The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a well-known cause of year-to-year climatic variations on Earth. Floods, droughts, and other natural disasters have been linked to the ENSO in various parts of the world. Hence, modeling the ENSO’s effects and the anomaly of the ENSO phenomenon has become a main research interest. Statistical methods, including linear and nonlinear models, have intensively been used in modeling the ENSO index. However, these models are unable to capture sufficient information on ENSO index variability, particularly on its temporal aspects. Hence, this study adopted fu

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Ziemke, J. R., S. Chandra, L. D. Oman, and P. K. Bhartia. "A new ENSO index derived from satellite measurements of column ozone." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 10, no. 8 (2010): 3711–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-3711-2010.

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Abstract. Column Ozone measured in tropical latitudes from Nimbus 7 total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS), Earth Probe TOMS, solar backscatter ultraviolet (SBUV), and Aura ozone monitoring instrument (OMI) are used to derive an El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index. This index, which covers a time period from 1979 to the present, is defined as the "Ozone ENSO Index" (OEI) and is the first developed from atmospheric trace gas measurements. The OEI is constructed by first averaging monthly mean column ozone over two broad regions in the western and eastern Pacific and then taking their dif

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Bogning, Sakaros, Frédéric Frappart, Gil Mahé, et al. "Investigating links between rainfall variations in the Ogooué River basin and ENSO in the Pacific Ocean over the period 1940–1999." Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences 384 (November 16, 2021): 181–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/piahs-384-181-2021.

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Abstract. This paper investigates links between rainfall variability in the Ogooué River Basin (ORB) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Pacific Ocean. Recent hydroclimatology studies of the ORB and surrounding areas resulting in contrasting conclusions about links between rainfall variability and ENSO. Thus, to make the issue clearer, this study investigates the links between ENSO and rainfall in the ORB over the period 1940–1999. The principal component analysis of monthly rainfall in the ORB was done. The temporal mode of the first component corresponds to the interannual variati

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Compo, Gilbert P., and Prashant D. Sardeshmukh. "Removing ENSO-Related Variations from the Climate Record." Journal of Climate 23, no. 8 (2010): 1957–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli2735.1.

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Abstract An important question in assessing twentieth-century climate change is to what extent have ENSO-related variations contributed to the observed trends. Isolating such contributions is challenging for several reasons, including ambiguities arising from how ENSO itself is defined. In particular, defining ENSO in terms of a single index and ENSO-related variations in terms of regressions on that index, as done in many previous studies, can lead to wrong conclusions. This paper argues that ENSO is best viewed not as a number but as an evolving dynamical process for this purpose. Specifical

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Feng, Jiaxin, Zhaohua Wu, and Xiaolei Zou. "Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies off Baja California: A Possible Precursor of ENSO." Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 71, no. 5 (2014): 1529–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-13-0397.1.

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Abstract Many recent studies have shown that observed El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events are spatially and temporally diverse and that they have undergone changes in characteristics. To quantitatively capture these features, multidimensional ensemble empirical mode decomposition (MEEMD) is employed to isolate the temporal–spatial evolution of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on naturally separated time scales. An alternative Niño-3.4 index is also defined to reflect more on the interannual variability of equatorial Pacific SSTAs. Using this alternative index, 27 ENSO warm

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Park, J., and G. Dusek. "ENSO components of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and their relation to North Atlantic interannual coastal sea level anomalies." Ocean Science 9, no. 3 (2013): 535–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/os-9-535-2013.

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Abstract. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) are known to influence coastal water levels along the East Coast of the United States. By identifying empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs), which coherently contribute from the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) to the AMO index (AMOI), we characterize both the expression of ENSO in the unsmoothed AMOI, and coherent relationships between these indices and interannual sea level anomalies at six stations in the Gulf of Mexico and western North Atlantic. Within the ENSO band (2–7 yr periods) the total co

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Park, J., and G. Dusek. "ENSO components of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and their relation to North Atlantic interannual coastal sea level anomalies." Ocean Science Discussions 9, no. 6 (2012): 3673–99. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/osd-9-3673-2012.

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Abstract. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) are known to influence coastal water levels along the east coast of the United States. By identifying empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) which coherently contribute from the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) to the AMO index (AMOI), we characterize both the expression of ENSO in the unsmoothed AMOI, and coherent relationships between these indices and interannual sea level anomalies at six stations in the Gulf of Mexico and Western North Atlantic. Within the ENSO band (2–7 yr periods) the total con

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Zubair, Lareef, and Janaki Chandimala. "Epochal Changes in ENSO–Streamflow Relationships in Sri Lanka." Journal of Hydrometeorology 7, no. 6 (2006): 1237–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jhm546.1.

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Abstract In an effort to use climate predictions for streamflow and malaria hazard prediction, the decadal variability of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on streamflow and rainfall in the Kelani River in Sri Lanka was investigated based on records from 1925 to 1995. In the last half century, the warm ENSO phase was associated with decreased annual streamflow and the cold ENSO phase with increased streamflow. The annual streamflow had a negative correlation (warm ENSO associated with low streamflow) with the concurrent ENSO index of Niño-3.4 that was significant at the 5% leve

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Sugiarto, Yon, and Dori Kurniawan. "ANALISIS DAMPAK ENSO (EL-NINO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) TERHADAP TINGKAT KEKERINGAN UNTUK TANAMAN PANGAN DAN PALAWIJA (STUDI KASUS : SULAWESI SELATAN)." Agromet 23, no. 2 (2009): 182. http://dx.doi.org/10.29244/j.agromet.23.2.182-198.

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<p>Weather and climate variability is a long-term weather changes that are characterized by fluctuations and deviations from normal conditions. One possible cause is the ENSO (El-Nino Southern Oscillation) which affected in drought events. This research was conducted to determine and analyze the level of drought in South Sulawesi due to the influence of ENSO and compare the production of food crops and secondary food crops in normal years and ENSO.<br />Drought index is calculated based on the Palmer method by using data of rainfall, air temperature and soil moisture as input. Base

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Fang, Xiang-Hui, and Fei Zheng. "Effect of the air–sea coupled system change on the ENSO evolution from boreal spring." Climate Dynamics 57, no. 1-2 (2021): 109–20. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05697-w.

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AbstractRealistic simulation and accurate prediction of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is still a challenge. One fundamental obstacle is the so-called spring predictability barrier (SPB), which features a low predictive skill of the ENSO with prediction across boreal spring. Our observational analysis shows that the leading empirical orthogonal function mode of the seasonal Niño3.4 index evolution (i.e., from May to the following April) explains nearly 90% of its total variance, and the principle component is almost identical to the Niño3.4 index in the mature phase. This means a good ENS

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Pacheco, Jheimy, Abel Solera, Alex Avilés, and María Dolores Tonón. "Influence of ENSO on Droughts and Vegetation in a High Mountain Equatorial Climate Basin." Atmosphere 13, no. 12 (2022): 2123. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos13122123.

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Several studies have assessed droughts and vegetation considering climatic factors, particularly El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) at different latitudes. However, there are knowledge gaps in the tropical Andes, a region with high spatiotemporal climatic variability. This research analyzed the relationships between droughts, vegetation, and ENSO from 2001–2015. Meteorological drought was analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for 1, 3 and 6 months. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was used to evaluate vegetation, and ENSO indexes were used

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Berner, Judith, Hannah M. Christensen, and Prashant D. Sardeshmukh. "Does ENSO Regularity Increase in a Warming Climate?" Journal of Climate 33, no. 4 (2020): 1247–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-19-0545.1.

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AbstractThe impact of a warming climate on El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is investigated in large-ensemble simulations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). These simulations are forced by historical emissions for the past and the RCP8.5-scenario emissions for future projections. The simulated variance of the Niño-3.4 ENSO index increases from 1.4°C2 in 1921–80 to 1.9°C2 in 1981–2040 and 2.2°C2 in 2041–2100. The autocorrelation time scale of the index also increases, consistent with a narrowing of its spectral peak in the 3–7-yr ENSO band, raising the possibility of greater season

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Xie, Kenny, and Bin Liu. "An ENSO-Forecast Independent Statistical Model for the Prediction of Annual Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Frequency in April." Advances in Meteorology 2014 (2014): 1–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2014/248148.

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Statistical models for preseason prediction of annual Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) and hurricane counts generally include El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasts as a predictor. As a result, the predictions from such models are often contaminated by the errors in ENSO forecasts. In this study, it is found that the latent heat flux (LHF) over Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP, defined as the region 0°–5°N, 115°–125°W) in spring is negatively correlated with the annual Atlantic TC and hurricane counts. By using stepwise backward elimination regression, it is further shown that the March valu

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Hu, Zeng-Zhen, Arun Kumar, Jieshun Zhu, Peitao Peng, and Bohua Huang. "On the Challenge for ENSO Cycle Prediction: An Example from NCEP Climate Forecast System, Version 2." Journal of Climate 32, no. 1 (2018): 183–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0285.1.

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Abstract This work demonstrates the influence of the initial amplitude of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) following its evolutionary phase on the forecast skill of ENSO in retrospective predictions of the Climate Forecast System, version 2. It is noted that the prediction skill varies with the phase of the ENSO cycle. The averaged skill (linear correlation) of Niño-3.4 index is in a range of 0.15–0.55 for the amplitude of Niño-3.4 index smaller than 0.5°C (e.g., initial phase or neutral condition of ENSO), and 0.74–0.93 for the amp

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Kellner, Olivia, and Dev Niyogi. "Climate Variability and the U.S. Corn Belt: ENSO and AO Episode-Dependent Hydroclimatic Feedbacks to Corn Production at Regional and Local Scales*." Earth Interactions 19, no. 6 (2015): 1–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/ei-d-14-0031.1.

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Abstract El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) climatology (1980–2010) is developed and analyzed across the U.S. Corn Belt using state climate division weather and historic corn yield data using analysis of variance (ANOVA) and correlation analysis. Findings provide insight to agroclimatic conditions under different ENSO and AO episodes and are analyzed with a perspective for potential impacts to agricultural production and planning, with findings being developed into a web-based tool for the U.S. Corn Belt. This study is unique in that it utilizes the oceanic Niño in

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Hashidu, U. S., and S. I. Badaru. "Relationship between El-Niño southern oscillation and rainfall in Sudano-Sahelian Region of Northern Nigeria." JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, ENVIRONMENT AND SOCIAL SCIENCES 7, no. 2 (2021): 211–16. http://dx.doi.org/10.56160/jaeess202172019.

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El Nino Southern-Oscillation (ENSO) refers to the cycle of coherent and sometimes very strong variations in the sea surface temperature (SST), convective rainfall, surface pressure and atmospheric circulation across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The research investigated the relationship between ENSO and rainfall across the Sudano-Sahelian region of northern Nigeria. Rainfall data for seven (7) locations were sourced from the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) covering the period from 1950 to 2019 and El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) data which comprised of Southern Oscillation Index (S

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Chandrasekara, Sewwandhi, Venkatraman Prasanna, and Hyun-Han Kwon. "Monitoring Water Resources over the Kotmale Reservoir in Sri Lanka Using ENSO Phases." Advances in Meteorology 2017 (2017): 1–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2017/4025964.

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In this study, the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase index is used for water management over the Kotmale reservoir in Sri Lanka. Daily rainfall data of 9 stations over the Kotmale catchment during 1960–2005 June-September (JJAS) season is investigated over the Kotmale catchment. The ENSO phases are identified based on the 0.5°C sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly over Nino 3 region. The study has brought out few stations showing increasing and a few decreasing seasonal rainfall trends for JJAS season, while there is no change in the annual rainfall for the catchment. Monthly and seas

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Schulte, Justin, Frederick Policelli, and Benjamin Zaitchik. "A waveform skewness index for measuring time series nonlinearity and its applications to the ENSO–Indian monsoon relationship." Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 29, no. 1 (2022): 1–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-1-2022.

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Abstract. Many geophysical time series possess nonlinear characteristics that reflect the underlying physics of the phenomena the time series describe. The nonlinear character of times series can change with time, so it is important to quantify time series nonlinearity without assuming stationarity. A common way of quantifying the time evolution of time series nonlinearity is to compute sliding skewness time series, but it is shown here that such an approach can be misleading when time series contain periodicities. To remedy this deficiency of skewness, a new waveform skewness index is propose

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Williams, Ian N., and Christina M. Patricola. "Diversity of ENSO Events Unified by Convective Threshold Sea Surface Temperature: A Nonlinear ENSO Index." Geophysical Research Letters 45, no. 17 (2018): 9236–44. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2018gl079203.

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Lü, A., S. Jia, W. Zhu, H. Yan, S. Duan, and Z. Yao. "El Niño-Southern Oscillation and water resources in the headwaters region of the Yellow River: links and potential for forecasting." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 15, no. 4 (2011): 1273–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-1273-2011.

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Abstract. This research explores the rainfall-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and runoff-ENSO relationships and examines the potential for water resource forecasting using these relationships. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Niño1.2, Niño3, Niño4, and Niño3.4 were selected as ENSO indicators for cross-correlation analyses of precipitation and runoff. There was a significant correlation (95% confidence level) between precipitation and ENSO indicators during three periods: January, March, and from September to November. In addition, monthly streamflow and monthly ENSO indictors were si

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Rosyidah, Rosyidah, Kunarso Kunarso, and Elis Indrayanti. "Relationship of ENSO (El Niño – Southernoscillation ) and monsoon index on variability of rainfall and sea surface height in coastal City Semarang, Central Java." Depik 11, no. 3 (2022): 455–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.13170/depik.11.3.26699.

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The city of Semarang is one of the coastal areas in Indonesia that is prone to flooding. Flood events that often occur in the Semarang City area can be triggered by high rainfall. Variations in rainfall and sea level are closely related to global atmospheric circulation such as ENSO and regional atmospheric circulation, Monsoon. This study aims to examine the relationship between ENSO and Monsoon with the distribution of rainfall and sea level in coastal city Semarang from 2012 to 2021. Correlation and composite analysis were used to analyze the relationship and impact of ENSO and Monsoon phen

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Mo, Kingtse C., Jae-Kyung E. Schemm, and Soo-Hyun Yoo. "Influence of ENSO and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Drought over the United States." Journal of Climate 22, no. 22 (2009): 5962–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli2966.1.

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Abstract Composites based on observations and model outputs from the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) drought experiments were used to examine the impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) on drought over the United States. Because drought implies persistent dryness, the 6-month standardized precipitation index, standardized runoff index, and soil moisture anomalies are used to represent drought. The experiments were performed by forcing an AGCM with prescribed sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) superimposed on the month

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DE, U. S., and R. K. MUKHOPADHYAY. "The effect of ENSO / Anti ENSO on northeast monsoon rainfall." MAUSAM 50, no. 4 (2021): 343–54. http://dx.doi.org/10.54302/mausam.v50i4.1947.

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Northeast monsoon precipitation data of 5 meteorological sub-divisions in India, spanning the period 1901-97, were analysed to identify the effect of ENSO/Anti ENSO events on the rainfall over southern peninsular India. ENSO/Anti ENSO years were selected on the basis of seasonal Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The analysis revealed that ENSO years were generally associated with enhanced northeast monsoon precipitation while there was reduced precipitation during Anti ENSO years, the reduction in Anti ENSO years being significant for Tamil Nadu (at 0.1% level), for Kerala (at 1% level) and fo

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Erasmi, Stefan, Pavel Propastin, Martin Kappas, and Oleg Panferov. "Spatial Patterns of NDVI Variation over Indonesia and Their Relationship to ENSO Warm Events during the Period 1982–2006." Journal of Climate 22, no. 24 (2009): 6612–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009jcli2460.1.

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Abstract The present study is based on the assumption that vegetation in Indonesia is significantly affected by climate anomalies that are related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm phases (El Niño) during the past decades. The analysis builds upon a monthly time series from the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) gridded data from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and two ENSO proxies, namely, sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) and Southern Oscillation index (SOI), and aims at the analysis of the spatially explicit dimension of ENSO impact on vegeta

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Tuo, Pengfei, Jin-Yi Yu, and Jianyu Hu. "The Changing Influences of ENSO and the Pacific Meridional Mode on Mesoscale Eddies in the South China Sea." Journal of Climate 32, no. 3 (2019): 685–700. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-18-0187.1.

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This study finds that the correlation between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the activity of mesoscale oceanic eddies in the South China Sea (SCS) changed around 2004. The mesoscale eddy number determined from satellite altimetry observations using a geometry of the velocity vector method was significantly and negatively correlated with the Niño-3.4 index before 2004, but the correlation weakened and became insignificant afterward. Further analyses reveal that the ENSO–eddy relation is controlled by two major wind stress forcing mechanisms: one directly related to ENSO and the other i

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He, Shengping, and Huijun Wang. "Oscillating Relationship between the East Asian Winter Monsoon and ENSO." Journal of Climate 26, no. 24 (2013): 9819–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00174.1.

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Abstract This work investigates the interdecadal variations of the relationship between the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM), further explores possible mechanisms, and finally considers a recent switch in the ENSO–EAWM relationship. The 23-yr sliding correlation between the Niño-3.4 index and the EAWM index reveals an obvious low-frequency oscillation with a period of about 50 yr in the ENSO–EAWM relationship. Warm ENSO events during high-correlation periods are associated with an unusually weak East Asian trough, a positive phase of the North Pacifi

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Zhao, Tongtiegang, Haoling Chen, Yu Tian, et al. "Quantifying overlapping and differing information of global precipitation for GCM forecasts and El Niño–Southern Oscillation." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 26, no. 16 (2022): 4233–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/hess-26-4233-2022.

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Abstract. While El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection has long been used in statistical precipitation forecasting, global climate models (GCMs) provide increasingly available dynamical precipitation forecasts for hydrological modeling and water resources management. It is not yet known to what extent dynamical GCM forecasts provide new information compared to statistical teleconnection. This paper develops a novel set operations of coefficients of determination (SOCD) method to explicitly quantify the overlapping and differing information for GCM forecasts and ENSO teleconnection.

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Liu, Guanyu, Jing Li, and Tong Ying. "Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation modulates the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation and fire weather in Australia." Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 23, no. 16 (2023): 9217–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-23-9217-2023.

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Abstract. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a crucial driver of fire weather in Australia, with the correlation between ENSO and Australian fire weather having intensified over the past 2 decades. However, the underlying causes for this change have not been thoroughly investigated. In this study, we utilize reanalysis datasets and numerical model simulations to demonstrate that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) could potentially modulate the ENSO–Australian fire weather relationship. The correlation between ENSO and the Australian Fire Weather Index (FWI) increases from 0.17

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Gonzales, Edgard, and Eusebio Ingol. "Determination of a New Coastal ENSO Oceanic Index for Northern Peru." Climate 9, no. 5 (2021): 71. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/cli9050071.

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In 2017, extreme rainfall events occurred in the northern portion of Peru, causing nearly 100,000 victims, according to the National Emergency Operations Center (COEN). This climatic event was attributed to the occurrence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Therefore, the main objective of this study was to determine and differentiate between the occurrence of canonical ENSO, with a new type of ENSO called “El Niño Costero” (Coastal El Niño). The polynomial equation method was used to analyze the data from the different types of existing ocean indices to determine the occurrence of ENS

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Woli, Prem, James Jones, Keith Ingram, and Joel Paz. "Forecasting Drought Using the Agricultural Reference Index for Drought (ARID): A Case Study." Weather and Forecasting 28, no. 2 (2013): 427–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-12-00036.1.

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Abstract Drought forecasting can aid in developing mitigation strategies and minimizing economic losses. Drought may be forecast using a drought index, which is an indicator of drought. The agricultural reference index for drought (ARID) was used as a tool to investigate the possibility of using climate indices (CIs) as predictors to improve the current level of forecasting, which is El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) based. The performances of models that are based on linear regression (LR), artificial neural networks (ANN), adaptive neuron-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS), and autoregressive

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Puspasari, R., P. F. Rahmawati, and E. Prianto. "The Effect of ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) phenomenon on Fishing Season of Small Pelagic Fishes in Indonesia Waters." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 934, no. 1 (2021): 012018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/934/1/012018.

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Abstract The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon causes changes in environmental conditions such as water temperature, salinity, and rainfall. In fisheries sector, the changing environment has affected the fishing seasons and Catch per Unit Effort (CPUE) of some pelagic species. This research was conducted by calculating CPUE and fishing season index for several small pelagic fishes in Makassar Strait, Bali Strait, and Aceh waters, then comparing the index value with the fishing season pattern in two extreme periods that are 2010-2011 and 2016 - 2017. An ANOVA test was conducted to

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Jien, Jerry Y., William A. Gough, and Ken Butler. "The Influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Eastern North Pacific Basin." Journal of Climate 28, no. 6 (2015): 2459–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00248.1.

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Abstract The interannual variability of tropical cyclone (TC) activity due to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the main development region of the eastern North Pacific basin has received scant attention. Herein the authors classify years of El Niño, La Niña, and neutral conditions using the multivariate ENSO index (MEI). Storm measurements of the net tropical cyclone activity index and power dissipation index are used to summarize the overall seasonal TC activity and TC intensity between 1971 and 2012. Both measures are found to be statistically dependent on the ENSO phases in the basin’

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Patricola, Christina M., John P. O’Brien, Mark D. Risser, et al. "Maximizing ENSO as a source of western US hydroclimate predictability." Climate Dynamics 54, no. 1-2 (2019): 351–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05004-8.

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Abstract Until recently, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was considered a reliable source of winter precipitation predictability in the western US, with a historically strong link between extreme El Niño events and extremely wet seasons. However, the 2015–2016 El Niño challenged our understanding of the ENSO-precipitation relationship. California precipitation was near-average during the 2015–2016 El Niño, which was characterized by warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies of similar magnitude compared to the extreme 1997–1998 and 1982–1983 El Niño events. We demonstrate that this

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Arana Ruedas, Del Piero Raphael, and Nabilt Moggiano. "ENSO Influence on Agricultural Drought Identified by SPEI Assessment in the Peruvian Tropical Andes, Mantaro Valley." Manglar 20, no. 2 (2023): 157–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.57188/manglar.2023.018.

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Agricultural drought is a serious threat for those locations where one of the most important economic activities is crop production, which occurrence has been rising due to climate change. In addition, different kinds of phenomena could exacerbate agricultural drought frequency, duration, and severity. For example, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which mostly occurs in the tropical western and central pacific, directly affects the Peruvian territory. This study aims to understand ENSO's influence on agricultural drought in the Mantaro Valley, Peru since it is one of the most important agr

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