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Chen, Rui, Weimin Zhang, and Xiang Wang. "Machine Learning in Tropical Cyclone Forecast Modeling: A Review." Atmosphere 11, no. 7 (June 27, 2020): 676. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos11070676.
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Tropical cyclones have always been a concern of meteorologists, and there are many studies regarding the axisymmetric structures, dynamic mechanisms, and forecasting techniques from the past 100 years. This research demonstrates the ongoing progress as well as the many remaining problems. Machine learning, as a means of artificial intelligence, has been certified by many researchers as being able to provide a new way to solve the bottlenecks of tropical cyclone forecasts, whether using a pure data-driven model or improving numerical models by incorporating machine learning. Through summarizing and analyzing the challenges of tropical cyclone forecasts in recent years and successful cases of machine learning methods in these aspects, this review introduces progress based on machine learning in genesis forecasts, track forecasts, intensity forecasts, extreme weather forecasts associated with tropical cyclones (such as strong winds and rainstorms, and their disastrous impacts), and storm surge forecasts, as well as in improving numerical forecast models. All of these can be regarded as both an opportunity and a challenge. The opportunity is that at present, the potential of machine learning has not been completely exploited, and a large amount of multi-source data have also not been fully utilized to improve the accuracy of tropical cyclone forecasting. The challenge is that the predictable period and stability of tropical cyclone prediction can be difficult to guarantee, because tropical cyclones are different from normal weather phenomena and oceanographic processes and they have complex dynamic mechanisms and are easily influenced by many factors.
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Terry, JP, and G. Gienko. "Climatological aspects of South Pacific tropical cyclones, based on analysis of the RSMC-Nadi (Fiji) regional archive." Climate Research 42, no. 3 (September 1, 2010): 223–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr00912.
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Mylonas, Markos, Kostas Douvis, Iliana Polychroni, Nadia Politi, and Panagiotis Nastos. "Analysis of a Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclone. Sensitivity to WRF Parameterizations and Horizontal Resolution." Atmosphere 10, no. 8 (July 24, 2019): 425. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos10080425.
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Due to their rarity and intensity, Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclones (TLCs; also known as medicanes) have been a subject of study over the last decades and lately the interest has undoubtedly grown. The current study investigates a well-documented TLC event crossed south Sicily on November 7–8, 2014 and the added value of higher spatial horizontal resolution through a physics parameterization sensitivity analysis. For this purpose, Weather Research and Forecasting model (version 3.9) is used to dynamically downscale ECMWF Re-Analysis (version 5) (ERA5) reanalysis 31 km spatial resolution to 16 km and 4 km, as parent and inner domain, respectively. In order to increase the variability and disparity of the results, spectral nudging was implemented on both domains and the outputs were compared against satellite observations and ground-based stations. Although, the study produces mixed results, there is a clear indication that the increase of resolution benefits specific aspects of the cyclone, while it deteriorates others, based on both ground and upper air analyses. The sensitivity of the parent domain displays an overall weak variability while the simulations demonstrate a positive time-lag predicting a less symmetric cyclone with weak warm core. On the contrary, inner domain analysis shows stronger variability between the model simulations reproducing more distinct clear tropical characteristics with less delayed TLC development for most of the experiments.
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Pytharoulis, Ioannis, Stergios Kartsios, Ioannis Tegoulias, Haralambos Feidas, Mario Miglietta, Ioannis Matsangouras, and Theodore Karacostas. "Sensitivity of a Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclone to Physical Parameterizations." Atmosphere 9, no. 11 (November 9, 2018): 436. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos9110436.
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The accurate prediction of Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones, or medicanes, is an important challenge for numerical weather prediction models due to their significant adverse impact on the environment, life, and property. The aim of this study is to investigate the sensitivity of an intense medicane, which formed south of Sicily on 7 November 2014, to the microphysical, cumulus, and boundary/surface layer schemes. The non-hydrostatic Weather Research and Forecasting model (version 3.7.1) is employed. A symmetric cyclone with a deep warm core, corresponding to a medicane, develops in all of the experiments, except for the one with the Thompson microphysics. There is a significant sensitivity of different aspects of the simulated medicane to the physical parameterizations. Its intensity is mainly influenced by the boundary/surface layer scheme, while its track is mainly influenced by the representation of cumulus convection, and its duration is mainly influenced by microphysical parameterization. The modification of the drag coefficient and the roughness lengths of heat and moisture seems to improve its intensity, track, and duration. The parameterization of shallow convection, with explicitly resolved deep convection, results in a weaker medicane with a shorter lifetime. An optimum combination of physical parameterizations in order to simulate all of the characteristics of the medicane does not seem to exist.
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Bryan, George H., and Richard Rotunno. "The Maximum Intensity of Tropical Cyclones in Axisymmetric Numerical Model Simulations." Monthly Weather Review 137, no. 6 (June 1, 2009): 1770–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008mwr2709.1.
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Abstract An axisymmetric numerical model is used to evaluate the maximum possible intensity of tropical cyclones. As compared with traditionally formulated nonhydrostatic models, this new model has improved mass and energy conservation in saturated conditions. In comparison with the axisymmetric model developed by Rotunno and Emanuel, the new model produces weaker cyclones (by ∼10%, in terms of maximum azimuthal velocity); the difference is attributable to several approximations in the Rotunno–Emanuel model. Then, using a single specification for initial conditions (with a sea surface temperature of 26°C), the authors conduct model sensitivity tests to determine the sensitivity of maximum azimuthal velocity (υmax) to uncertain aspects of the modeling system. For fixed mixing lengths in the turbulence parameterization, a converged value of υmax is achieved for radial grid spacing of order 1 km and vertical grid spacing of order 250 m. The fall velocity of condensate (Vt) changes υmax by up to 60%, and the largest υmax occurs for pseudoadiabatic thermodynamics (i.e., for Vt > 10 m s−1). The sensitivity of υmax to the ratio of surface exchange coefficients for entropy and momentum (CE/CD) matches the theoretical result, υmax ∼ (CE/CD)1/2, for nearly inviscid flow, but simulations with increasing turbulence intensity show less dependence on CE/CD; this result suggests that the effect of CE/CD is less important than has been argued previously. The authors find that υmax is most sensitive to the intensity of turbulence in the radial direction. However, some settings, such as inviscid flow, yield clearly unnatural structures; for example, υmax exceeds 110 m s−1, despite a maximum observed intensity of ∼70 m s−1 for this environment. The authors show that turbulence in the radial direction limits maximum axisymmetric intensity by weakening the radial gradients of angular momentum (which prevents environmental air from being drawn to small radius) and of entropy (which is consistent with weaker intensity by consideration of thermal wind balance). It is also argued that future studies should consider parameterized turbulence as an important factor in simulated tropical cyclone intensity.
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Pendergrass, Angeline G., and Hugh E. Willoughby. "Diabatically Induced Secondary Flows in Tropical Cyclones. Part I: Quasi-Steady Forcing." Monthly Weather Review 137, no. 3 (March 1, 2009): 805–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2008mwr2657.1.
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Abstract The Sawyer–Eliassen Equation (SEQ) is here rederived in height coordinates such that the sea surface is also a coordinate surface. Compared with the conventional derivation in mass field coordinates, this formulation adds some complexity, but arguably less than is inherent in terrain-following coordinates or interpolation to the lower physical boundary. Spatial variations of static stability change the vertical structure of the mass flow streamfunction. This effect leads to significant changes in both secondary-circulation structure and intensification of the primary circulation. The SEQ is solved on a piecewise continuous, balanced mean vortex where the shapes of the wind profiles inside and outside the eye and the tilt of the specified heat source can be adjusted independently. A series of sensitivity studies shows that the efficiency with which imposed heating intensifies the vortex is most sensitive to intensity itself as measured by maximum wind and to vortex size as measured by radius of maximum wind. Vortex shape and forcing tilt have impacts 20%–25% as great as intensity and size, suggesting that the aspects of tropical cyclones that predispose them to rapid intensification are environmental or thermodynamic rather than kinematic.
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Rozoff, Christopher M., and James P. Kossin. "New Probabilistic Forecast Models for the Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification." Weather and Forecasting 26, no. 5 (October 1, 2011): 677–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-10-05059.1.
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Abstract The National Hurricane Center currently employs a skillful probabilistic rapid intensification index (RII) based on linear discriminant analysis of the environmental and satellite-derived features from the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) dataset. Probabilistic prediction of rapid intensity change in tropical cyclones is revisited here using two additional models: one based on logistic regression and the other on a naïve Bayesian framework. Each model incorporates data from the SHIPS dataset over both the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific Ocean basins to provide the probability of exceeding the standard rapid intensification thresholds [25, 30, and 35 kt (24 h)−1] for 24 h into the future. The optimal SHIPS and satellite-based predictors of rapid intensification differ slightly between each probabilistic model and ocean basin, but each set of optimal predictors incorporates thermodynamic and dynamic aspects of the tropical cyclone’s environment (such as vertical wind shear) and its structure (such as departure from convective axisymmetry). Cross validation shows that both the logistic regression and Bayesian probabilistic models are skillful relative to climatology. Dependent testing indicates both models exhibit forecast skill that generally exceeds the skill of the present operational SHIPS-RII and a simple average of the probabilities provided by the logistic regression, Bayesian, and SHIPS-RII models provides greater skill than any individual model. For the rapid intensification threshold of 25 kt (24 h)−1, the three-member ensemble mean improves the Brier skill scores of the current operational SHIPS-RII by 33% in the North Atlantic and 52% in the eastern North Pacific.
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Green, Alrick, Sundararaman G. Gopalakrishnan, Ghassan J. Alaka, and Sen Chiao. "Understanding the Role of Mean and Eddy Momentum Transport in the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Irma (2017) and Hurricane Michael (2018)." Atmosphere 12, no. 4 (April 14, 2021): 492. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos12040492.
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The prediction of rapid intensification (RI) in tropical cyclones (TCs) is a challenging problem. In this study, the RI process and factors contributing to it are compared for two TCs: an axis-symmetric case (Hurricane Irma, 2017) and an asymmetric case (Hurricane Michael, 2018). Both Irma and Michael became major hurricanes that made significant impacts in the United States. The Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model was used to examine the connection between RI with forcing from the large-scale environment and the subsequent evolution of TC structure and convection. The observed large-scale environment was reasonably reproduced by HWRF forecasts. Hurricane Irma rapidly intensified in an environment with weak-to-moderate vertical wind shear (VWS), typically favorable for RI, leading to the symmetric development of vortical convective clouds in the cyclonic, vorticity-rich environment. Conversely, Hurricane Michael rapidly intensified in an environment of strong VWS, typically unfavorable for RI, leading to major asymmetries in the development of vortical convective clouds. The tangential wind momentum budget was analyzed for these two hurricanes to identify similarities and differences in the pathways to RI. Results suggest that eddy transport terms associated with convective processes positively contributed to vortex spin up in the early stages of RI and inhibited spin up in the later stages of RI in both TCs. In the early stages of RI, the mean transport terms exhibited notable differences in these TCs; they dominated the spin-up process in Irma and were of secondary importance to the spin-up process in Michael. Favorable aspects of the environment surrounding Michael appeared to aid in the RI process despite hostile VWS.
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Gu, Jian-Feng, Zhe-Min Tan, and Xin Qiu. "The Evolution of Vortex Tilt and Vertical Motion of Tropical Cyclones in Directional Shear Flows." Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 75, no. 10 (October 2018): 3565–78. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jas-d-18-0024.1.
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Recent studies have demonstrated the importance of moist dynamics on the intensification variability of tropical cyclones (TCs) in directional shear flows. Here, we propose that dry dynamics can account for many aspects of the structure change of TCs in moist simulations. The change of vortex tilt with height and time essentially determines the kinematic and thermodynamic structure of TCs experiencing directional shear flows, depending on how the environmental flow rotates with height, that is, in a clockwise (CW) or counterclockwise (CC) fashion. The vortex tilt precesses faster and is closer to the left-of-shear (with respect to the deep-layer shear) region, with a smaller magnitude at equilibrium in CW hodographs than in CC hodographs. The low-level vortex tilt and accordingly more low-level upward motions are ahead of the overall vortex tilt in CW hodographs but are behind the overall vortex tilt in CC hodographs. Such a configuration of vortex tilt in CW hodographs is potentially favorable for the continuous precession of convection into the upshear region but in CC hodographs it is unfavorable. Most of the upward motions within a TC undergoing CW shear are concentrated in the downshear-left region, whereas those in the CC shear are located in the downshear-right region. Moreover, the upward (downward) motions are in phase with positive (negative) local helicity in both CW and CC hodographs. Here, we present an alternative mechanism that is associated with balanced dynamics in response to vortex tilt to explain the coincidence and also the distribution variability of vertical motions, as well as local helicity in directional shear flows. The balanced dynamics could explain the overlap of positive helicity and convection in both moist simulations and observations.
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Camargo, Suzana J. "Global and Regional Aspects of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the CMIP5 Models." Journal of Climate 26, no. 24 (December 2, 2013): 9880–902. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00549.1.
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Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) activity is analyzed in 14 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The global TC activity in the historical runs is compared with observations. The simulation of TC activity in the CMIP5 models is not as good as in higher-resolution simulations. The CMIP5 global TC frequency is much lower than observed, and there is significant deficiency in the geographical patterns of TC tracks and formation. Although all of the models underestimate the global frequency of TCs, the models present a wide range of global TC frequency. The models with the highest horizontal resolution have the highest level of global TC activity, though resolution is not the only factor that determines model TC activity. A cold SST bias could potentially contribute to the low number of TCs in the models. The models show no consensus regarding the difference of TC activity in two warming scenarios [representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and RCP8.5] and the historical simulation. The author examined in more detail North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific TC activity in a subset of models and found no robust changes across models in TC frequency. Therefore, there is no robust signal across the CMIP5 models in global and regional TC changes in activity for future scenarios. The future changes in various large-scale environmental fields associated with TC activity were also examined globally: genesis potential index, potential intensity, vertical wind shear, and sea level pressure. The multimodel mean changes of these variables in the CMIP5 models are consistent with the changes obtained in the CMIP3 models.
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Gopalakrishnan, Tharani, Md Hasan, A. Haque, Sadeeka Jayasinghe, and Lalit Kumar. "Sustainability of Coastal Agriculture under Climate Change." Sustainability 11, no. 24 (December 16, 2019): 7200. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su11247200.
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Climatic and non-climatic stressors, such as temperature increases, rainfall fluctuations, population growth and migration, pollution, land-use changes and inadequate gender-specific strategies, are major challenges to coastal agricultural sustainability. In this paper, we discuss all pertinent issues related to the sustainability of coastal agriculture under climate change. It is evident that some climate-change-related impacts (e.g., temperature and rainfall) on agriculture are similarly applicable to both coastal and non-coastal settings, but there are other factors (e.g., inundation, seawater intrusion, soil salinity and tropical cyclones) that particularly impact coastal agricultural sustainability. Coastal agriculture is characterised by low-lying and saline-prone soils where spatial competition with urban growth is an ever-increasing problem. We highlight how coastal agricultural viability could be sustained through blending farmer perceptions, adaptation options, gender-specific participation and integrated coastal resource management into policy ratification. This paper provides important aspects of the coastal agricultural sustainability, and it can be an inspiration for further research and coastal agrarian planning.
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Crausbay, Shelley D., and Patrick H. Martin. "Natural disturbance, vegetation patterns and ecological dynamics in tropical montane forests." Journal of Tropical Ecology 32, no. 5 (July 14, 2016): 384–403. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0266467416000328.
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Abstract:Disturbance is a central process in forest dynamics, yet the role of natural disturbance in tropical montane forests (TMFs) has not been systematically addressed. We posit that disturbance in TMFs has a wider role than commonly acknowledged and its effects are distinctive because: (1) TMFs often have very low rates of productivity due to low resources, and so recovery from disturbance may be slow, (2) montane forests have marked environmental heterogeneity which interacts with disturbance, (3) a large percentage of TMFs are regularly exposed to high energy windstorms and landslides, and (4) TMFs contain a biogeographically rich mixture of tree species with divergent evolutionary histories that interact differently with different disturbance types. We reviewed the literature on natural disturbance in TMFs and found 119 peer-reviewed papers which met our search criteria. Our review shows that disturbance is widespread in TMFs with pronounced effects on structure, function, composition and dynamics. Disturbance is also evident in the ecology of TMF biota with clear examples of plant life-history traits adapted to disturbance, including disturbance-triggered germination, treefall gap strategies and resprouting ability. Important aspects of TMF disturbances are stochastic and site-specific, but there are broad patterns in disturbance type, frequency and severity along latitudinal, altitudinal and environmental gradients. Compared with the lowland tropics, TMF disturbances are more spatially structured, TMFs experience more disturbance types in a given area due to environmental complexity, and TMFs are much more prone to small-scale yet severe landslides as well the large and potentially catastrophic disturbances of cyclones, forest die-back and fire. On the whole, natural disturbance should assume a larger role in models of ecosystem processes and vegetation patterns in TMFs. An improved understanding of what creates variation in disturbance severity and post-disturbance recovery rates, how composition and diversity feedback on disturbance type and likelihood, and how global change will alter these dynamics are important priorities in future TMF ecology research.
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Mooley, D. A., and C. M. Mohile. "Some aspects of rainfall associated with cyclonic storms of the Bay of Bengal." Journal of Climatology 6, no. 2 (1986): 149–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.3370060204.
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Hazelton, Andrew T., Xuejin Zhang, Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan, William Ramstrom, Frank Marks, and Jun A. Zhang. "High-Resolution Ensemble HFV3 Forecasts of Hurricane Michael (2018): Rapid Intensification in Shear." Monthly Weather Review 148, no. 5 (April 17, 2020): 2009–32. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr-d-19-0275.1.
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Abstract The FV3GFS is the current operational Global Forecast System (GFS) at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), which combines a finite-volume cubed sphere dynamical core (FV3) and GFS physics. In this study, FV3GFS is used to gain understanding of rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) in shear. The analysis demonstrates the importance of TC structure in a complex system like Hurricane Michael, which intensified to a category 5 hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico despite over 20 kt (10 m s−1) of vertical wind shear. Michael’s RI is examined using a global-nest FV3GFS ensemble with the nest at 3-km resolution. The ensemble shows a range of peak intensities from 77 to 159 kt (40–82 m s−1). Precipitation symmetry, vortex tilt, moisture, and other aspects of Michael’s evolution are compared through composites of stronger and weaker members. The 850–200-hPa vertical shear is 22 kt (11 m s−1) in the mean of both strong and weak members during the early stage. Tilt and moisture are two distinguishing factors between strong and weak members. The relationship between vortex tilt and humidification is complex, and other studies have shown both are important for sheared intensification. Here, it is shown that tilt reduction leads to upshear humidification and is thus a driving factor for intensification. A stronger initial vortex and early evolution of the vortex also appear to be the key to members that are able to resist the sheared environment.
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Lander, Mark A. "Tropical Cyclones: Meteorological Aspects." HortScience 36, no. 2 (April 2001): 242–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.21273/hortsci.36.2.242.
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FERREIRA, R. R., and E. P. SOUZA. "Thermodynamic Aspects of an Upper Tropospheric Cyclonic Vortex in Northeast Region of Brazil: a Case Study." Anuário do Instituto de Geociências - UFRJ 42, no. 3 (September 30, 2019): 504–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.11137/2019_3_504_513.
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Zhang, Tao, Wuyin Lin, Yanluan Lin, Minghua Zhang, Haiyang Yu, Kathy Cao, and Wei Xue. "Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Genesis from Mesoscale Convective Systems Using Machine Learning." Weather and Forecasting 34, no. 4 (July 29, 2019): 1035–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-18-0201.1.
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Abstract Tropical cyclone (TC) genesis is a problem of great significance in climate and weather research. Although various environmental conditions necessary for TC genesis have been recognized for a long time, prediction of TC genesis remains a challenge due to complex and stochastic processes involved during TC genesis. Different from traditional statistical and dynamical modeling of TC genesis, in this study, a machine learning framework is developed to determine whether a mesoscale convective system (MCS) would evolve into a tropical cyclone. The machine learning models 1) are built upon a number of essential environmental predictors associated with MCSs/TCs, 2) predict whether MCSs can become TCs at different lead times, and 3) provide information about the relative importance of each predictor, which can be conducive to discovering new aspects of TC genesis. The results indicate that the machine learning classifier, AdaBoost, is able to achieve a 97.2% F1-score accuracy in predicting TC genesis over the entire tropics at a 6-h lead time using a comprehensive set of environmental predictors. A robust performance can still be attained when the lead time is extended to 12, 24, and 48 h, and when this machine learning classifier is separately applied to the North Atlantic Ocean and the western North Pacific Ocean. In contrast, the conventional approach based on the genesis potential index can have no more than an 80% F1-score accuracy. Furthermore, the machine learning classifier suggests that the low-level vorticity and genesis potential index are the most important predictors to TC genesis, which is consistent with previous discoveries.
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Hagino, Masahiro, Takashi Inoue, Masanobu Mizoguchi, Wataru Aoki, and Fumiaki Matsumoto. "Dust Collection Validity and Effect of Hole Shape Accuracy of CFRP with Developed Hollow-Type Drill and Dust Collector." International Journal of Automation Technology 10, no. 3 (May 2, 2016): 324–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.20965/ijat.2016.p0324.
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The drilling of carbon fiber-reinforced plastic (CFRP) has many important aspects, such as collecting the fine cutting chips. Serious problems relating to machining accuracy can arise when the fine cutting chips diffused into the air are deposited or mixed in the sliding surface and spindle unit of a machine tool. Moreover, the environmental aspects of fine cutting chips can seriously affect the health and safety of workers. Our group has developed a new hollow-type drilling device with a cyclone-type dust collection system, which aspirates and ejects fine cutting chips from a penetration hole in the central part of the drill shank to outside the cutting area. We produced the tools with drills both without a point angle for the counter-boring hole processing and with a point angle for general drilling. In this study the effect of the dust collection rate for cutting chip and the drilling hole shape accuracy are evaluated for the hollow-type drill with two different cutting edge shapes. The results demonstrate the possibility of suppressing the occurrence of fine cutting chips when the hollow-type drill edge is similar to the shape of general twist drill edges. The hole-finish surface properties were improved, and we obtained a higher dust collection rate.
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Anafi, Ron C., Lauren J. Francey, John B. Hogenesch, and Junhyong Kim. "CYCLOPS reveals human transcriptional rhythms in health and disease." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, no. 20 (April 24, 2017): 5312–17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1619320114.
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Circadian rhythms modulate many aspects of physiology. Knowledge of the molecular basis of these rhythms has exploded in the last 20 years. However, most of these data are from model organisms, and translation to clinical practice has been limited. Here, we present an approach to identify molecular rhythms in humans from thousands of unordered expression measurements. Our algorithm, cyclic ordering by periodic structure (CYCLOPS), uses evolutionary conservation and machine learning to identify elliptical structure in high-dimensional data. From this structure, CYCLOPS estimates the phase of each sample. We validated CYCLOPS using temporally ordered mouse and human data and demonstrated its consistency on human data from two independent research sites. We used this approach to identify rhythmic transcripts in human liver and lung, including hundreds of drug targets and disease genes. Importantly, for many genes, the circadian variation in expression exceeded variation from genetic and other environmental factors. We also analyzed hepatocellular carcinoma samples and show these solid tumors maintain circadian function but with aberrant output. Finally, to show how this method can catalyze medical translation, we show that dosage time can temporally segregate efficacy from dose-limiting toxicity of streptozocin, a chemotherapeutic drug. In sum, these data show the power of CYCLOPS and temporal reconstruction in bridging basic circadian research and clinical medicine.
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Kabir, Md Humayain, and Mohammed Abdul Baten. "Sustainability of Climate Change Adaptation Practices in South-Western Coastal Area of Bangladesh." Journal of Sustainable Development 12, no. 5 (September 29, 2019): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/jsd.v12n5p1.
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In Bangladesh, South Western (SW) coastal area is the most vulnerable due to its geo-morphological characteristics and socio-economic conditions. Consequently, this study aims at find out the sustainable adaptation practices to climate change impacts through a series of field study along with questionnaire survey and reviewing the secondary literature. The study shows that near about 50 adaptation practices are exercised in SW coastal area of Bangladesh. Among these, growing local rice variety, rainwater harvesting, directly use of pond water through proper pond management, raising plinth, lowering use roof etc. are the more sustainable adaptation practices. On the other hand, homestead gardening, dyke nursery, cropping on raised mound, school cum cyclone shelter, purification of pond water trough traditional knowledge are the moderately popular and sustainable adaptation practices in terms of social, economic and environmental aspects. Furthermore, shrimp cultivation at homestead, fish-vegetables combined cultivation, purification of pond water through govt. supported filter, pond filter, bamboo made piling house etc. are the less sustainable one.
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Kouroutzoglou, J., H. A. Flocas, K. Keay, I. Simmonds, and M. Hatzaki. "Climatological aspects of explosive cyclones in the Mediterranean." International Journal of Climatology 31, no. 12 (July 21, 2010): 1785–802. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/joc.2203.
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Narwaria, Satyendra Singh. "Conceptual aspect of environment security: evidence from India and Bangladesh." Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal 30, no. 1 (January 14, 2019): 36–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/meq-08-2017-0084.
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Purpose The fast depletion of natural resources that has resulted in the scarcity of resources and degradation of environment and the subsequent conflict over resources within and among the states have given rise to a growing concern for environmental security all over the world. It may be pointed out here that since the beginning of human civilization, humans have been relying on the environment for their needs and demands. Therefore, the concern of human beings to the environment has been always and obvious. But now with the depletion of natural resources, the concern for environmental security is being advocated. The purpose of this paper is to analyze environmental issues in the context of South Asia. It may also be added here that in a situation as stated above, any stress on the environment can cause conflicts involving violence within the state as well as between the nation states. Moreover, this paper will look into other issues related to the environment degradation in India and Bangladesh. Design/methodology/approach The first approach confines environment to the nature and the problems and constraints related to it. It can be termed as ecological approach. This approach is too narrow in its scope, as nature alone is not responsible for many types of hazards. How it is being exploited and protected is equally important. The other approach has been termed as the maximize approach and it includes both the ecology and its human domains. This approach takes into consideration the interaction between the two. It believes that the excessive dependence of human beings affects the environment. Also, the depletion and degradation of the environment affect human beings. The environmental security has to include both the domains and understand their inter-linkages. In fact, the uses of environment and its proper maintenance are related to the human domains. Findings The environment-related problems and their implications are more similar in both countries. It is true that there is a growing awareness on environmental issues in almost all the countries in the last few years and the individual countries have persuaded environment-friendly policies in certain sectors. Apart from this regional level, a common approach to securing the environment may involve the following aspects: sharing of knowledge and expertise regarding population control measures, policies and programs; cooperation for development and poverty eradication; regularization of inter-state migrations, evolving a regional framework for controlling, repatriation and rehabilitation of refugees; establishment of a system of disaster management and disaster preparedness at the regional level; exchange of knowledge and research works on seismic tremors, earthquakes, and landslides, their causes and possibilities; evolving common flood control measures and development of a regional flood warning system; common measures can be taken up for increased agriculture productivity, treatment of salinity, development of cyclone warning system, reforestation, development of water resources, air pollution control system, etc. Originality/value This research will not only be useful for India and Bangladesh but also for other South Asian countries and developing countries as well.
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Nachamkin, Jason E., Jerome Schmidt, and Cristian Mitrescu. "Verification of Cloud Forecasts over the Eastern Pacific Using Passive Satellite Retrievals." Monthly Weather Review 137, no. 10 (October 1, 2009): 3485–500. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2009mwr2853.1.
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Abstract Operational cloud forecasts generated by the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS)1 were verified over the eastern Pacific Ocean. The study focused on the accuracy of cloud forecasts associated with extratropical cyclone and convective activity during the late winter and spring of 2007. The condensed total water (liquid and solid) path was used as a proxy for cloud cover to compare the forecasts with retrievals from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES). Analyses of the GOES retrievals indicate that deep cloud systems were generally well represented during daylight hours. Thus, the bulk of the verification focused on the general aspects of quality and timing of these deep systems. Multiple statistics were collected, ranging from simple correlations and histograms to more sophisticated fuzzy and composite statistics. The results show that synoptic-scale systems were generally well predicted to at least two days, with the primary error being an overestimation of deep cloud occurrence. Smaller subsynoptic-scale systems were subject to spatial and timing biases in that a number of the forecasts were lagged by 3–6 h. Despite the bias, 60%–70% of the forecasts of the mesoscale phenomena displayed useful skill.
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Tippett, Michael K., Suzana J. Camargo, and Adam H. Sobel. "A Poisson Regression Index for Tropical Cyclone Genesis and the Role of Large-Scale Vorticity in Genesis." Journal of Climate 24, no. 9 (May 1, 2011): 2335–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2010jcli3811.1.
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Abstract A Poisson regression between the observed climatology of tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) and large-scale climate variables is used to construct a TCG index. The regression methodology is objective and provides a framework for the selection of the climate variables in the index. Broadly following earlier work, four climate variables appear in the index: low-level absolute vorticity, relative humidity, relative sea surface temperature (SST), and vertical shear. Several variants in the choice of predictors are explored, including relative SST versus potential intensity and satellite-based column-integrated relative humidity versus reanalysis relative humidity at a single level; these choices lead to modest differences in the performance of the index. The feature of the new index that leads to the greatest improvement is a functional dependence on low-level absolute vorticity that causes the index response to absolute vorticity to saturate when absolute vorticity exceeds a threshold. This feature reduces some biases of the index and improves the fidelity of its spatial distribution. Physically, this result suggests that once low-level environmental vorticity reaches a sufficiently large value, other factors become rate limiting so that further increases in vorticity (at least on a monthly mean basis) do not increase the probability of genesis. Although the index is fit to climatological data, it reproduces some aspects of interannual variability when applied to interannually varying data. Overall, the new index compares positively to the genesis potential index (GPI), whose derivation, computation, and analysis is more complex in part because of its dependence on potential intensity.
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Newton, Alicia. "Indian cyclones soar." Nature Climate Change 1, no. 810 (September 4, 2008): 120. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/climate.2008.91.
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Langenbrunner, Baird. "Fewer deep cyclones." Nature Climate Change 11, no. 5 (May 2021): 378. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01054-1.
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Knutson, Thomas R., Joseph J. Sirutis, Stephen T. Garner, Isaac M. Held, and Robert E. Tuleya. "Simulation of the Recent Multidecadal Increase of Atlantic Hurricane Activity Using an 18-km-Grid Regional Model." Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 88, no. 10 (October 1, 2007): 1549–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/bams-88-10-1549.
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In this study, a new modeling framework for simulating Atlantic hurricane activity is introduced. The model is an 18-km-grid nonhydrostatic regional model, run over observed specified SSTs and nudged toward observed time-varying large-scale atmospheric conditions (Atlantic domain wavenumbers 0–2) derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalyses. Using this “perfect large-scale model” approach for 27 recent August–October seasons (1980–2006), it is found that the model successfully reproduces the observed multidecadal increase in numbers of Atlantic hurricanes and several other tropical cyclone (TC) indices over this period. The correlation of simulated versus observed hurricane activity by year varies from 0.87 for basinwide hurricane counts to 0.41 for U.S. landfalling hurricanes. For tropical storm count, accumulated cyclone energy, and TC power dissipation indices the correlation is ~0.75, for major hurricanes the correlation is 0.69, and for U.S. landfalling tropical storms, the correlation is 0.57. The model occasionally simulates hurricanes intensities of up to category 4 (~942 mb) in terms of central pressure, although the surface winds (< 47 m s−1) do not exceed category-2 intensity. On interannual time scales, the model reproduces the observed ENSO-Atlantic hurricane covariation reasonably well. Some notable aspects of the highly contrasting 2005 and 2006 seasons are well reproduced, although the simulated activity during the 2006 core season was excessive. The authors conclude that the model appears to be a useful tool for exploring mechanisms of hurricane variability in the Atlantic (e.g., shear versus potential intensity contributions). The model may be capable of making useful simulations/projections of pre-1980 or twentieth-century Atlantic hurricane activity. However, the reliability of these projections will depend on obtaining reliable large-scale atmospheric and SST conditions from sources external to the model.
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Spall, Michael A. "On the Circulation of Atlantic Water in the Arctic Ocean." Journal of Physical Oceanography 43, no. 11 (November 1, 2013): 2352–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jpo-d-13-079.1.
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Abstract An idealized eddy-resolving numerical model and an analytic three-layer model are used to develop ideas about what controls the circulation of Atlantic Water in the Arctic Ocean. The numerical model is forced with a surface heat flux, uniform winds, and a source of low-salinity water near the surface around the perimeter of an Arctic basin. Despite this idealized configuration, the model is able to reproduce many general aspects of the Arctic Ocean circulation and hydrography, including exchange through Fram Strait, circulation of Atlantic Water, a halocline, ice cover and transport, surface heat flux, and a Beaufort Gyre. The analytic model depends on a nondimensional number, and provides theoretical estimates of the halocline depth, stratification, freshwater content, and baroclinic shear in the boundary current. An empirical relationship between freshwater content and sea surface height allows for a prediction of the transport of Atlantic Water in the cyclonic boundary current. Parameters typical of the Arctic Ocean produce a cyclonic boundary current of Atlantic Water of O(1 − 2 Sv; where 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) and a halocline depth of O(200 m), in reasonable agreement with observations. The theory compares well with a series of numerical model calculations in which mixing and environmental parameters are varied, thus lending credibility to the dynamics of the analytic model. In these models, lateral eddy fluxes from the boundary and vertical diffusion in the interior are important drivers of the halocline and the circulation of Atlantic Water in the Arctic Ocean.
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Li, H., Q. Zhu, CQ Ke, D. Wang, and X. Shen. "Influence of summer great cyclones on sea ice concentration and area in the Arctic Ocean." Climate Research 84 (September 9, 2021): 113–31. http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr01662.
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Summer Arctic cyclones occur frequently in the Arctic Ocean and play an important role in sea ice variability. We used a reanalysis dataset and sea ice concentration data to identify and track summer great Arctic cyclones and to quantitatively analyse the contribution of cyclones to variations in sea ice concentration and area. We further explored the process of how cyclones influence sea ice via sea surface temperature, radiation, sea ice motion and ice deformation. The results indicate that cyclones accelerate decreases in sea ice concentration and area. The higher the values of the sea ice concentration index (ratio of maximum variation in sea ice concentration change rate to the minimum value of sea ice concentration change rate caused by the cyclone) and sea ice area responsivity (ratio of sea ice area change caused by cyclones to total sea ice area change) are, the greater is the contribution of cyclones to sea ice reduction. Over time, sea ice concentration decreases, and the impacts of cyclones on sea ice concentration are enhanced. During summer great cyclones, a strong low-pressure system and wind stress lead to increases in sea ice motion, ice divergence and changes in sea surface temperature and net radiation, promoting decreases in sea ice concentration and area. This study aids in the prediction of short-term sea ice change, and is beneficial to the development of coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice models.
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Ventham, Justin D., and Bin Wang. "Large-Scale Flow Patterns and Their Influence on the Intensification Rates of Western North Pacific Tropical Storms*." Monthly Weather Review 135, no. 3 (March 1, 2007): 1110–27. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr3327.1.
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Abstract NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data are used to identify large-scale environmental flow patterns around western North Pacific tropical storms with the goal of finding a signal for those most favorable for rapid intensification, based on the hypothesis that aspects of the horizontal flow influence tropical cyclone intensification at an early stage of development. Based on the finding that intensification rate is a strong function of initial intensity (Joint Typhoon Warning Center best track), very rapid, rapid, and slow 24-h intensification periods from a weak tropical storm stage (35 kt) are defined. By using composite analysis and scalar EOF analysis of the zonal wind around these subsets, a form of the lower-level (850 mb) combined monsoon confluence–shearline pattern is found to occur dominantly for the very rapid cases. Based on the strength of the signal, it may provide a new rapid intensification predictor for operational use. At 200 mb the importance of the location of the tropical storm under a region of flow splitting into the midlatitude westerlies to the north and the subequatorial trough to the south is identified as a common criterion for the onset of rapid intensification. Cases in which interactions with upper-level troughs occurred, prior to and during slow and rapid intensification, are studied and strong similarities to prior Atlantic studies are found.
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Xia, Lan, and Yue Zhou. "Tracking Jianghuai Cyclones in China and Their Climate Characteristics." Atmosphere 9, no. 9 (August 30, 2018): 341. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos9090341.
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A Jianghuai cyclone is an extratropical cyclone, which influences the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Huai River basins in China. According to the definition of Jianghuai cyclones, statistics of their climate characteristics from 1979 to 2010 are obtained by an objective detection and tracking algorithm using ERA-Interim reanalysis data. The results show that the frequency of Jianghuai cyclones has a strong year-to-year variability but no obvious trend. Jianghuai cyclones are most frequent in May but fewest in December. As the cold air is active in spring, which interacts with the warm air from the southwest of the subtropical high at the Yangtze-Huai River region, it makes Jianghuai cyclones occur more frequently in this season. The main origins of Jianghuai cyclones are located in the Poyang Lake region, Dongting Lake region, and Dabie Mountain area. The maximum deepening rate of 0–2 hPa/6 h is featured in 66.4% of Jianghuai cyclones. Over 40% of Jianghuai cyclones have a mean deepening rate of 0–1 hPa/6 h. The lifetime of Jianghuai cyclones is short, mainly lasting for one to two days. In addition, background characteristics are compared between the formation, climax, and decaying periods of Jianghuai cyclones.
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Lin, Ning. "Tropical cyclones and heatwaves." Nature Climate Change 9, no. 8 (July 22, 2019): 579–80. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0537-2.
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Gozzo, Luiz Felippe, Rosmeri P. da Rocha, Michelle S. Reboita, and Shigetoshi Sugahara. "Subtropical Cyclones over the Southwestern South Atlantic: Climatological Aspects and Case Study." Journal of Climate 27, no. 22 (November 4, 2014): 8543–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-14-00149.1.
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Abstract Hurricane Catarina (2004) and subtropical storm Anita (2010) called attention to the development of subtropical cyclones (SCs) over the South Atlantic basin. Besides strong and organized storms, a large number of weaker, shallower cyclones with both extratropical and tropical characteristics form in the region, impacting the South American coast. The main focus of this study is to simulate a climatology of subtropical cyclones and their synoptic pattern over the South Atlantic, proposing a broader definition of these systems. In addition, a case study is presented to discuss the main characteristics of one weak SC. The Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and NCEP–NCAR reanalysis are used to construct the 33-yr (1979–2011) climatology, and a comparison between them is established. Both reanalyses show good agreement in the SCs’ intensity, geographical distribution, and seasonal variability, but the interannual variability is poorly correlated. Anomaly composites for austral summer show that subtropical cyclogenesis occurs under a dipole-blocking pattern in upper levels. Upward motion is enhanced by the vertical temperature gradient between a midtropospheric cold cutoff low/trough and the intense low-level warm air advection by the South Atlantic subtropical high. Turbulent fluxes in the cyclone region are not above average during cyclogenesis, but the subtropical high flow advects great amounts of moisture from distant regions to fuel the convective activity. Although most of the SCs develop during austral summer (December–February), it is in autumn (March–May) that the most “tropical” environment is found (stronger surface fluxes and weaker vertical wind shear), leading to the most intense episodes.
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Zhang, Jiuzheng, Haiming Xu, Jing Ma, and Jiechun Deng. "Interannual Variability of Spring Extratropical Cyclones over the Yellow, Bohai, and East China Seas and Possible Causes." Atmosphere 10, no. 1 (January 21, 2019): 40. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos10010040.
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Interannual variability of cyclones that are generated over the eastern Asian continent and passed over the Yellow, Bohai, and East China seas (YBE cyclones) in spring is analyzed using reanalysis datasets for the period of 1979–2017. Possible causes for the variability are also discussed. Results show that the number of YBE cyclones exhibits significant interannual variability with a period of 4–5 years. Developing cyclones are further classified into two types: rapidly developing cyclones and slowly developing cyclones. The number of rapidly developing cyclones is highly related to the underlying sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (SSTA) and the atmospheric baroclinicity from Lake Baikal to the Japan Sea. The number of slowly developing cyclones, however, is mainly affected by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the preceding winter (DJF); it works through the upper-level jet stream over Japan and the memory of ocean responses to the atmosphere. Positive NAO phase in winter is associated with the meridional tripole pattern of SSTA in the North Atlantic Ocean, which persists from winter to the following spring (MAM) due to the thermal inertia of the ocean. The SSTA in the critical mid-latitude Atlantic region in turn act to affect the overlying atmosphere via sensible and latent heat fluxes, leading to an increased frequency of slowly developing cyclones via exciting an anomalous eastward-propagating Rossby wave train. These results are confirmed by several numerical simulations using an atmospheric general circulation model.
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Maslova, Veronika N., Elena N. Voskresenskaya, Andrey S. Lubkov, and Alexander V. Yurovsky. "Temporal Variability and Predictability of Intense Cyclones in the Western and Eastern Mediterranean." Atmosphere 12, no. 9 (September 17, 2021): 1218. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos12091218.
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Our understanding of the time variability of intense cyclones in the Mediterranean region is still lacking despite its importance for the long-term forecast of climate anomalies. This study examines the month-to-month variability and predictability of cyclones, the intensity of which exceeded the 75th percentile (intense cyclones) and the 95th percentile (extreme cyclones), over the Western and Eastern Mediterranean. The locations of cyclones were obtained by applying the method of M. Yu. Bardin on the 6-hourly 1000 hPa geopotential height data from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the period 1951–2017 (67 years). It was shown that annual frequencies of cyclones were higher in the Western Mediterranean due to the contribution of spring and autumn; monthly averages were higher in the Eastern Mediterranean in December/January–March for intense/extreme cyclones. In the context of global warming, no linear trends significant at the 90% confidence level were found in the variability of intense and extreme cyclones, except for a positive trend in autumn extreme cyclones over the Eastern Mediterranean. The time series of cyclones in both parts of the Mediterranean were characterized by a pronounced interannual variability with a noticeable decadal modulation. According to spectral analysis, these interannual periods were multiples of 2–3 years corresponding to the main global teleconnection patterns. Seasonally, the most energy was concentrated in winter spectra; spring and autumn spectra had lower comparable magnitudes. The correlation analysis between the frequency of cyclones and the indices of the main atmospheric patterns showed that the main synchronous patterns for intense and extreme Mediterranean cyclones in September–April were the Mediterranean Oscillation (with the opposite signs for the Western and Eastern Mediterranean), Scandinavia pattern (positive correlation), and East Atlantic Oscillation (negative correlation). Additional important synchronous teleconnection patterns for some months were the Arctic Oscillation and East Atlantic/West Russia pattern for the Western Mediterranean, and the Polar/Eurasia pattern and Tropical Northern Hemisphere pattern for the Eastern Mediterranean. The outcome of this paper was the use of an artificial neural network model with inputs of global teleconnection indices both in the atmosphere and ocean to describe the temporal variability of the frequency of intense cyclones in the Western and Eastern Mediterranean. The predictability of intense cyclones was shown with the possibility of forecasts with a lead time of 0, 2, 4, and 6 months for the Western Mediterranean in October, January, February, April, and May, and for the Eastern Mediterranean in January, February, March, April, and May. One of the applications of this model may be in forecasting the evolution of the monthly frequency of cyclones with a lead time of 2 to 6 months.
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Ferreira, Rosana Nieto, Wayne H. Schubert, and James J. Hack. "Dynamical Aspects of Twin Tropical Cyclones Associated with the Madden–Julian Oscillation." Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 53, no. 7 (April 1996): 929–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1996)053<0929:daottc>2.0.co;2.
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Liu, Di, Peng Wang, Ta-Chih Hsiao, and Da-Ren Chen. "Small Cyclones with Conical Contraction Bodies." Aerosol and Air Quality Research 18, no. 10 (2018): 2519–28. http://dx.doi.org/10.4209/aaqr.2018.05.0166.
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Yanase, Wataru, Hiroshi Niino, Kevin Hodges, and Naoko Kitabatake. "Parameter Spaces of Environmental Fields Responsible for Cyclone Development from Tropics to Extratropics." Journal of Climate 27, no. 2 (January 15, 2014): 652–71. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-13-00153.1.
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Abstract Objective cyclone tracking applied to a 30-yr reanalysis dataset shows that cyclone development in the summer and autumn seasons is active in the tropics and extratropics and inactive in the subtropics. To understand this geographically bimodal distribution of cyclone development associated with tropical and extratropical cyclones quantitatively, the direct relationship between cyclone types and their environments are assessed by using a parameter space of environmental variables [environmental parameter space (EPS)]. The number of cyclones is analyzed in terms of two different factors: the environmental conditions favorable for cyclone development and the area size that satisfies the favorable condition. The EPS analysis is mainly conducted for two representative environmental parameters that are commonly used for cyclone analysis: potential intensity for tropical cyclones and baroclinicity for extratropical cyclones. The geographically bimodal distribution is attributed to the high sensitivity of the cyclone development to the change in the environmental fields from tropics to extratropics. In addition, the bimodal distribution is partly attributed to the rapid change in the environmental fields from tropics to extratropics. The EPS analysis also shows that other environmental parameters, including relative humidity and vertical velocity, may enhance the contrast between the tropics (extratropics) and subtropics, whereas they are not essential for determining cyclone types. The relationship between cyclones and their environments is found to be similar between the hemispheres in the EPS, although the geographical distribution, particularly the longitudinal uniformity, is markedly different between the hemispheres.
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Li, Chuanxi, Qi Zhao, Zhe Zhao, Qiyong Liu, and Wei Ma. "The association between tropical cyclones and dengue fever in the Pearl River Delta, China during 2013-2018: A time-stratified case-crossover study Tropical cyclones and dengue fever." PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 15, no. 9 (September 9, 2021): e0009776. http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0009776.
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Background Studies have shown that tropical cyclones are associated with several infectious diseases, while very few evidence has demonstrated the relationship between tropical cyclones and dengue fever. This study aimed to examine the potential impact of tropical cyclones on dengue fever incidence in the Pearl River Delta, China. Methods Data on daily dengue fever incidence, occurrence of tropical cyclones and meteorological factors were collected between June and October, 2013–2018 from nine cities in the Pearl River Delta. Multicollinearity of meteorological variables was examined via Spearman correlation, variables with strong correlation (r>0.7) were not included in the model simultaneously. A time-stratified case-crossover design combined with conditional Poisson regression model was performed to evaluate the association between tropical cyclones and dengue fever incidence. Stratified analyses were performed by intensity grades of tropical cyclones (tropical storm and typhoon), sex (male and female) and age-groups (<18, 18–59, ≥60 years). Results During the study period, 20 tropical cyclones occurred and 47,784 dengue fever cases were reported. Tropical cyclones were associated with an increased risk of dengue fever in the Pearl River Delta region, with the largest relative risk of 1.62 with the 95% confidence interval (1.45–1.80) occurring on the lag 5 day. The strength of association was greater and lasted longer for typhoon than for tropical storm. There was no difference in effect estimates between males and females. However, individuals aged over 60 years were more vulnerable than others. Conclusions Tropical cyclones are associated with increased risk of local dengue fever incidence in south China, with the elderly more vulnerable than other population subgroups. Health protective strategies should be developed to reduce the potential risk of dengue epidemic after tropical cyclones.
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Mergen, Bernard, and David Longshore. "Encyclopedia of Hurricanes, Typhoons, and Cyclones." Environmental History 6, no. 2 (April 2001): 319. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/3985097.
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Ritchie, Elizabeth A., and Russell L. Elsberry. "Simulations of the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Phasing between the Upper-Level Trough and Tropical Cyclones." Monthly Weather Review 135, no. 3 (March 1, 2007): 862–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/mwr3303.1.
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Abstract Whether the tropical cyclone remnants will become a significant extratropical cyclone during the reintensification stage of extratropical transition is a complex problem because of the uncertainty in the tropical cyclone, the midlatitude circulation, the subtropical anticyclone, and the nonlinear interactions among these systems. In a previous study, the authors simulated the impact of the strength of the midlatitude circulation trough without changing its phasing with the tropical cyclone. In this study, the impact of phasing is simulated by fixing the initial position and amplitude of the midlatitude trough and varying the initial position of the tropical cyclone. The peak intensity of the extratropical cyclone following the extratropical transition is strongly dependent on the phasing, which leads to different degrees of interaction with the midlatitude baroclinic zone. Many aspects of the simulated circulation, temperature, and precipitation fields appear quite realistic for the reintensifying and dissipating cases. Threshold values of various parameters in quadrants near and far from the tropical cyclone are extracted that discriminate well between reintensifiers and dissipators. The selection and distribution of threshold parameters are consistent with the Petterssen type-B conceptual model for extratropical cyclone development. Thus, these simulations suggest that phasing between the tropical cyclone and the midlatitude trough is a critical factor in predicting the reintensification stage of extratropical transition.
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Hermoso, Alejandro, Victor Homar, and Arnau Amengual. "The Sequence of Heavy Precipitation and Flash Flooding of 12 and 13 September 2019 in Eastern Spain. Part I: Mesoscale Diagnostic and Sensitivity Analysis of Precipitation." Journal of Hydrometeorology 22, no. 5 (May 2021): 1117–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/jhm-d-20-0182.1.
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AbstractThe Mediterranean region is frequently affected by heavy precipitation episodes and subsequent flash flooding. An exemplary case is the heavy precipitation episode that occurred in the regions of València, Murcia, and Almería (eastern Spain) on 12 and 13 September 2019. Observed rainfall amounts were close to 500 mm in 48 h, causing seven fatalities and estimated economical losses above EUR 425 million. This case exemplifies the challenging aspects of convective-scale forecasting in the Mediterranean region, with kilometer-resolution meteorological fields required over long forecast spans. Understanding the key mesoscale factors acting on the triggering, location, and intensity of the convective systems responsible for extreme accumulations is essential to gain insight into these episodes and contribute toward their accurate hydrometeorological forecasting. Mesoscale diagnosis suggests that local and distant orography, together with air–sea fluxes, were instrumental in developing convection and intensifying precipitation rate. Sensitivity experiments confirm the role of orography in organizing the cyclonic flow over the southeast part of the western Mediterranean, and also acting as a convection-triggering mechanism. Furthermore, results highlight the role of latent heat flux from the Mediterranean Sea in enhancing convective instability at lower levels and moistening the environment. These moist feeding flows substantially contribute to increasing precipitation rates. Such high sensitivity to environmental moisture distribution naturally propagates to the sea surface temperature, which, by means of sensible and latent heat flux exchanges, dominated the evolution of convective activity for the 12–13 September 2019 episode.
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Reboita, Michelle, Rosmeri da Rocha, and Débora Oliveira. "Key Features and Adverse Weather of the Named Subtropical Cyclones over the Southwestern South Atlantic Ocean." Atmosphere 10, no. 1 (December 27, 2018): 6. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/atmos10010006.
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This work documents the main features of six subtropical cyclones occurred between the years 2010 and 2016 over the southwestern South Atlantic Ocean, near the Brazilian coast, which received names (with the exception of one) from the Brazilian Navy Hydrographic Center. The fine-resolution ERA5 reanalysis and rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) were used to describe the synoptic environment and the adverse weather conditions during the six events. The support of a small-amplitude trough at mid-levels or a cut-off low, weak vertical wind shear, and moisture flux convergence are the main features contributing to the subtropical cyclogenesis at the surface. On the other hand, sea surface temperature (SST) presents a secondary contribution since the cyclones develop over the ocean with a wide range of SST values (from 22.5 °C to 28.6 °C in the initial phase of cyclones). The six subtropical cyclones are less deep in the atmosphere column than the tropical ones and, unlike the extratropical cyclones, they have little or no westward tilt with an increase in height. The studied subtropical cyclones produced adverse weather conditions such as (a) strong winds (reaching 17 m·s−1 at 10 m high) for a long period occurring east/southeastward of the cyclone center, and (b) high amounts of rainfall along the southeastern coast of Brazil, where the accumulated rainfall varied between 170 to 350 mm, being in most cases higher than the monthly climatology. Over the continent, the Brazilian states of Rio de Janeiro and Espírito Santo were the most affected by the intense rainfall associated with the cyclones.
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Walsh, K. "Tropical cyclones and climate change: unresolved issues." Climate Research 27 (2004): 77–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.3354/cr027077.
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Szymanski, Maciej, and Bernard Wisniewski. "Tropical Cyclones Avoidance in Ocean Navigation ? Safety of Navigation and Some Economical Aspects." TransNav, the International Journal on Marine Navigation and Safety of Sea Transportation 12, no. 1 (2018): 57–68. http://dx.doi.org/10.12716/1001.12.01.06.
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MOORE, MURRAY E., and ANDREW R. McFARLAND. "Design of Stairmand-Type Sampling Cyclones." American Industrial Hygiene Association Journal 51, no. 3 (March 1990): 151–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15298669091369475.
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Pillei, Martin, Tobias Kofler, Andreas Wierschem, and Michael Kraxner. "Optimizing swirl in compact uniflow cyclones." AIChE Journal 65, no. 2 (November 28, 2018): 766–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/aic.16462.
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McFarland, Andrew R., John S. Haglund, Maria D. King, Shishan Hu, Manpreet S. Phull, Brandon W. Moncla, and Youngjin Seo. "Wetted Wall Cyclones for Bioaerosol Sampling." Aerosol Science and Technology 44, no. 4 (February 25, 2010): 241–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02786820903555552.
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Stejskal, Iva V. "THE ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING OF NATURAL EVENTS AND INDUSTRY ACTIVITY IN MERMAID SOUND, DAMPIER ARCHIPELAGO." APPEA Journal 32, no. 1 (1992): 420. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/aj91034.
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Various events, both natural and man-induced, have been identified as potential sources of disturbance to corals adjacent to the North West Shelf Project's Onshore Gas Treatment Plant on the Burrup Peninsula in the Dampier Archipelago. These events include cyclones, dredging and dredge spoil dumping operations, shipping activities, effluent discharge and oil spills.Environmental monitoring has indicated that the coral assemblages near the Onshore Gas Treatment Plant have been adversely affected by Project-related operations and tropical cyclones. The effects on corals due to dredging and spoil dumping activities have been shown to be localised and limited to a distance of 1.5 km from the nearest point of operation.Cyclone Ilona (1988) and Cyclone Orson (1989) were amongst the strongest recorded in the Dampier Archipelago. These cyclones caused extensive coral damage throughout the Archipelago, especially on the eastern side of Mermaid Sound. By 1990, recruitment of corals was observed at many of the sites indicating that corals were beginning to recover.
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Jansa, A., P. Alpert, P. Arbogast, A. Buzzi, B. Ivancan-Picek, V. Kotroni, M. C. Llasat, et al. "MEDEX: a general overview." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 14, no. 8 (August 5, 2014): 1965–84. http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1965-2014.
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Abstract. The general objective of the international MEDiterranean EXperiment (MEDEX) was the better understanding and forecasting of cyclones that produce high impact weather in the Mediterranean. This paper reviews the motivation and foundation of MEDEX, the gestation, history and organisation of the project, as well as the main products and scientific achievements obtained from it. MEDEX obtained the approval of World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) and can be considered as framed within other WMO actions, such as the ALPine EXperiment (ALPEX), the Mediterranean Cyclones Study Project (MCP) and, to a certain extent, THe Observing System Research and Predictability EXperiment (THORPEX) and the HYdrological cycle in Mediterranean EXperiment (HyMeX). Through two phases (2000–2005 and 2006–2010), MEDEX has produced a specific database, with information about cyclones and severe or high impact weather events, several main reports and a specific data targeting system field campaign (DTS-MEDEX-2009). The scientific achievements are significant in fields like climatology, dynamical understanding of the physical processes and social impact of cyclones, as well as in aspects related to the location of sensitive zones for individual cases, the climatology of sensitivity zones and the improvement of the forecasts through innovative methods like mesoscale ensemble prediction systems.