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Journal articles on the topic 'Error Correction Model (ECM)'

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Published: 4 June 2021
Last updated: 3 February 2022

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1

Saragih, Ansheila Yunian, and Lavlimattria Esya. "PENGARUH KINERJA MAKROEKONOMI TERHADAP DANA PIHAK KETIGA BANK SYARIAH INDONESIA." Media Ekonomi 24, no. 2 (October 15, 2016): 151. http://dx.doi.org/10.25105/me.v24i2.3801.

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<p><em>This study Aimed to analyze the influence of GDP, SBIS and inflation on third-party funds (DPK), in the short term and long term in the period quarterely 2008: 1 until 2014: 4. The variables used are third party funds (DPK), Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation, and Bank Indonesia Certificates Sharia (SBIS). Mmethodology used is a method of Error Correction Model (ECM). Before the test of Error Correction Model (ECM), the models must pass the prerequisite test unit root, integration and Co integration. The results showed the models Prerequisites Error Correction Model (ECM) can be used and passed the prerequisite test. The results using methods Error Correction Model (ECM), it was found that the variable inflation does not significantly influence the Third Party Funds (TPF) in the long term. While in the short term inflation is a significant variable to the Third Party Fund (DPK).</em></p><p> </p>
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2

Lai, Baoying, and Nathan Lael Joseph. "Pricing-to-Market Using EGARCH-Error Correction Model." International Journal of Strategic Decision Sciences 3, no. 1 (January 2012): 1–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.4018/jsds.2012010101.

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In this paper, the authors use an exponential generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (EGARCH) error-correction model (ECM), that is, EGARCH-ECM, to estimate the pass-through effects of foreign exchange (FX) rates and producers’ prices for 20 U.K. export sectors. The long-run adjustment of export prices to FX rates and producers’ prices is within the range of -1.02% (for the Textiles sector) and -17.22% (for the Meat sector). The contemporaneous pricing-to-market (PTM) coefficient is within the range of -72.84% (for the Fuels sector) and -8.05% (for the Textiles sector). Short-run FX rate pass-through is not complete even after several months. Rolling EGARCH-ECMs show that the short and long-run effects of FX rate and producers’ prices fluctuate substantially as are asymmetry and volatility estimates before equilibrium is achieved.
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3

Anwar, A. I., Kurniaty, N. R. S. Wulandari, and R. Fitrianti. "Application of Error Correction Model (ECM) in stabilizing financial inclusion." IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 473 (May 14, 2020): 012117. http://dx.doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/473/1/012117.

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4

Santos, Angelo Gabrielle. "Forecasting residential electricity demand in the Philippines using an error correction model." Philippine Review of Economics 57, no. 1 (2021): 121–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.37907/6erp0202j.

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This study uses an Error Correction Model (ECM) to forecast residential electricity demand in the Philippines using household final consumption expenditure, residential electricity price, and temperature as explanatory variables. Results show that there is a long-run relationship between household final consumption expenditure and residential electricity demand. Estimates from the ECM are consistent with economic theory, and the model passed standard diagnostic and parameter stability tests. Forecast performance based on within-sample and out-of-sample forecasts of the ECM is also shown to be superior, relative to a benchmark Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Simulations show that by 2040, residential electricity consumption will range from 42,500 gigawatthours (GWh) based on a weak income growth scenario and 62,000 GWh based on a combined changes scenario.
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5

Reddy, M. S., V. K. Jain, and G. K. Lal. "Tool Design for ECM: Correction Factor Method." Journal of Engineering for Industry 110, no. 2 (May 1, 1988): 111–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/1.3187858.

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A simple model for tool (cathode) design for plane parallel electrochemical machining and electrochemical drilling has been proposed. Assuming the initial tool shape to be complementary to required work shape, the desirable and predicted anode profiles have been compared and the error between them has been evaluated. Using this error, the correction factor has been calculated to modify the tool shape. This procedure is repeated till the designed tool can produce an anode profile within the prescribed tolerance limits. Using this technique, tools for tapered, flat, exponential, parabolic, and nonstandard work shapes have been designed. Bare tools have been designed for straight and tapered sided holes. Comparison between analytical and experimental results shows a good agreement between them.
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6

Afrizal, Afrizal. "Analisis Inflasi di Indonesia (Suatu Pendekatan Model Dinamik)." Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis dan Kewirausahaan 7, no. 2 (August 18, 2018): 85. http://dx.doi.org/10.26418/jebik.v7i2.24199.

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This study aims to determine the magnitude of the effect of the money supply, the exchange rate of rupiah (exchange rate) and the interest rate on inflation in Indonesia during the period 2000.12016.4. The analysis tools used for this research data are: unit root test, integration degree test, cointegration test, error correction model / ECM. The results showed that all staioner research data at level 1 (first difference) based on cointegration test showed that the variables observed in this study co-integration or have long-term relationship. The ECM model used is valid, as indicated by the error correction term (ECT) coefficient is significant. In the short run the money supply, the exchange rate of rupiah (exchange rate) and the interest rate is not significant to the inflation rate, but in the long term is significant.
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7

Mahmudah, Henny. "KONTRIBUSI PAJAK DAERAH DAN RETRIBUSI DAERAH TERHADAP PENDAPATAN ASLI DAERAH ( PAD ) GUNA MENDUKUNG PELAKSANAAN OTONOMI DAERAH." Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan 11, no. 1 (June 1, 2013): 72. http://dx.doi.org/10.22219/jep.v11i1.3731.

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Following writing will try to work through how relationship among accepting region taxes and region retribution to PAD'S step-up by use of approaching Error Correction Model( ECM) by use of annual data begins year 1990 until years 2010. It utilizes error correction's approaching with consideration that this model feels equal to word relationship among variable one is analyzed well that in the short term and also on a long term.
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8

Fatmawati, Sri, and Algifari Algifari. "EFEK FISHER DI INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN CO-INTEGRATION DAN ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (ECM)." Jurnal Riset Manajemen dan Bisnis 9, no. 1 (August 22, 2015): 51. http://dx.doi.org/10.21460/jrmb.2014.91.225.

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The aim of this research is to examine the existence of Fisher Effect for Indonesian Economy, by regressing interest rate on rate of inflation in period 1980-2011. With co-integration and error correction technique, the results indicate that an increases of one percent in inflation rate lead to increase in interest rate at 0,13 percent in short-run and at 0,95 percent in longrun. This research can’t confirm the existence of Fisher Effect in Indonesian Economy in short-run, but this effect exists in long-run. Keywords: Fisher Effect, Interest Rate, Inflation Rate, Co-integration, Error Correction Model
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9

Esarey, Justin. "Fractionally Integrated Data and the Autodistributed Lag Model: Results from a Simulation Study." Political Analysis 24, no. 1 (2016): 42–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpv032.

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Two contributions in this issue, Grant and Lebo and Keele, Linn, and Webb, recommend using an ARFIMA model to diagnose the presence of and estimate the degree of fractional integration, then either (i) fractionally differencing the data before analysis or, (ii) for cointegrated variables, estimating a fractional error correction model. But Keele, Linn, and Webb also present evidence that ARFIMA models yield misleading indicators of the presence and degree of fractional integration in a series with fewer than 1000 observations. In a simulation study, I find evidence that the simple autodistributed lag model (ADL) or equivalent error correction model (ECM) can, without first testing or correcting for fractional integration, provide a useful estimate of the immediate and long-run effects of weakly exogenous variables in fractionally integrated (but stationary) data.
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10

Ranto, Suryo Refli. "Pengaruh Jangka Pendek Dan Jangka Panjang Variabel Makro Ekonomi Terhadap Ihsg Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Dengan Pendekatan Error Correction Model (ECM)." Jurnal Derivat: Jurnal Matematika dan Pendidikan Matematika 6, no. 1 (August 20, 2019): 12–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.31316/j.derivat.v6i1.332.

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Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji secara empiris pengaruh jangka pendek dan jangka panjang dari Inflasi, Jumlah Uang Berjalan, Kurs, Tingkat Bunga Bank Indonesia, Harga Minyak Dunia (WTI) dan Net Ekspor terhadap Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dengan metode Error Correction Model (ECM) yang diolah dengan eviews 6.0. Selama periode pengamatan yaitu tahun 2000-2012 terjadi hubungan antara variabel makro dengan pergerakan IHSG di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI). Hasil uji ECM memperlihatkan Inflasi, kurs dan harga minyak dunia berpengaruh signifakan terhadap IHSG pada jangka pendek sedangkan pada jangka panjang variabel yang signifikan mempengaruhi IHSG adalah IHK, kurs, net ekspor dan harga minyak dunia.Kata kunci : IHSG, IHK, JUB, Kurs, tingkat Bunga Bank Indonesia (rSBI), Harga Minyak Dunia (WTI), Net Ekspor dan Error Correction Model (ECM)
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11

De-Graft Acquah, Henry, and Lawrence Acheampong. "Comparing parametric and semiparametric error correction models for estimation of long run equilibrium between exports and imports." Applied Studies in Agribusiness and Commerce 11, no. 1-2 (June 30, 2017): 19–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.19041/apstract/2017/1-2/3.

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This paper introduces the semiparametric error correction model for estimation of export-import relationship as an alternative to the least squares approach. The intent is to demonstrate how semiparametric error correction model can be used to estimate the relationship between Ghana’s export and import within the context of a generalized additive modelling (GAM) framework. The semiparametric results are compared to common parametric specification using the ordinary least squares regression. The results from the semiparametric and parametric error correction models (ECM) indicate that the error correction term and import variable are significant determinants of Ghana’s exports. On the basis of Akaike Information Criteria and Generalized Cross-Validation (GCV) scores, it is found that the semiparametric error correction model provides a better fit than the widely used parametric error correction model for modeling Ghana’s export-import relationship. The results of the analysis of variance provide further evidence of nonlinearity in Ghana’s export and import relationship. In effect, this paper demonstrates the usefulness of semiparametric error correction model in the estimation of export – import relationship. JEL code: C14, C18, C22, F10, F14
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12

Ramadhani, Zulfa Nur Fajri, Siskarossa Ika Oktora, and Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications IJSA. "DETERMINAN TRANSAKSI NONTUNAI DI INDONESIA DENGAN PENDEKATAN ERROR CORRECTION MECHANISM (ECM) MODEL." Indonesian Journal of Statistics and Its Applications 3, no. 1 (February 28, 2019): 62–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.29244/ijsa.v3i1.190.

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Consumption is an activity that must be done by everyone. In order to consume something, a transaction is needed to get the goods or services desired. One kind of transaction that is used by many people nowadays is non-cash transaction. Since Bank Indonesia established Gerakan Nasional Non Tunai (GNNT) in August 2014, the value of non-cash transactions exceeds the value of cash transactions. It happenned because people prefer non-cash to cash transaction which is easier, safer, more practical, and more economical. Besides, an increase in non-cash transactions can also be influenced by other factors. Therefore, a study is conducted to analyze the determinants of non-cash transactions from the macro side by using Error Correction Mechanism (ECM). The data used in this study are secondary data from Bank Indonesia and Badan Pusat Statistik with monthly period from January 2010 until December 2017. The results showed that in the long run, private savings and BI rate have positive effect on non-cash transactions. In the short run, private savings and money supply have positive effect on non-cash transactions. While inflation does not affect non-cash transactions, both in the short and long run.
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13

Saputra, Defrizal, Hasdi Aimon, and Melti Roza Adry. "ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI UTANG LUAR NEGERI DI INDONESIA." Jurnal Ecogen 1, no. 3 (February 7, 2019): 482. http://dx.doi.org/10.24036/jmpe.v1i3.4989.

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This study aims to determine and analyze the factors that influence foreign debt in Indonesia with variables that effect economic growth, inflation, and foreign interest rates. This type of research is associative descriptive research, where the data used is secondary data from 1970 to 2017 obtained from institutions and related institutions, which are analyzed using the Error Correction Model (ECM) method. This study initially used the Ordinary Lest Square (OLS) method to see long-term, and used ECM because it wanted to see short-term at the same time. The findings of this study indicate that economic growth and inflation have a significant effect in the long run, but the interest rates have no significant effect, and in the short term all have a significant effect on foreign debt in Indonesia. Keywords: foreign debt, economic growth, inflation, interest rates and error correction model (ECM)
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14

Ji, Deng-Yuan, Cheng-Few Lee, and Hsiao-Yin Chen. "Forecast Performance of the Taiwan Weighted Stock Index." Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies 18, no. 03 (September 2015): 1550017. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/s0219091515500174.

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This research introduces the following to establish a Taiwan Weighted stock index (TAIEX) prediction model: intervention analysis integrated into the ARIMA–GARCH model, error correction model (ECM), intervention analysis integrated into the transfer function model, the simple average combination forecasting model, and the minimum error combination forecasting model. The results show that intervention analysis integrated into the transfer function model yields a more accurate prediction model than ECM and intervention analysis integrated into the ARIMA–GARCH model. The minimum error combination forecasting model can improve prediction accuracy much better than non-combination models and also maintain robustness. Intervention analysis integrated into the transfer function model shows that the TAIEX is affected by external factors, the INDU, the exchange rate, and the consumer price index; therefore, facing the different issues of the TAIEX, the government could pursue some macroeconomic policies to reach the goals of policies.
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15

Breitung, Jörg, and Christian Wulff. "Non-linear Error Correction and the Efficient Market Hypothesis: The Case of German Dual-Class Shares." German Economic Review 2, no. 4 (December 1, 2001): 419–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1468-0475.00047.

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Abstract The efficient market hypothesis implies that (risk-adjusted) asset prices cannot be cointegrated. On the other hand, arbitrage processes prevent prices of fundamentally related assets from drifting too far away. An attractive model that reconciles these two conflicting facts is the non-linear error correction mechanism (ECM). Such a process tolerates small deviations from the long-run relationship. For more substantial deviations, an effective adjustment process pushes the diverging prices towards their fundamental relationship. In this paper parametric and non-parametric techniques are employed to investigate the ECM between prices of voting and non-voting stocks. Despite its intuitive appeal, we find little evidence for a non-linear relationship between German dual-class shares. Only in four out of 12 cases does the threshold ECM yield a substantial improvement of fit. In other cases, the evidence for non-linearity is rather weak and the threshold ECM fails to outperform the linear model.
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16

Sutthichaimethee, Jindamas, and Kuskana Kubaha. "Forecasting Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Thailand’s Construction Sector by Enriching the LS-ARIMAXi-ECM Model." Sustainability 10, no. 10 (October 9, 2018): 3593. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su10103593.

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The Thailand Development Policy focuses on the simultaneous growth of the economy, society, and environment. Long-term goals have been set to improve economic and social well-being. At the same time, these aim to reduce the emission of CO2 in the future, especially in the construction sector, which is deemed important in terms of national development and is a high generator of greenhouse gas. In order to achieve national sustainable development, policy formulation and planning is becoming necessary and requires a tool to undertake such a formulation. The tool is none other than the forecasting of CO2 emissions in long-term energy consumption to produce a complete and accurate formulation. This research aims to study and forecast energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in Thailand’s construction sector by applying a model incorporating the long- and short-term auto-regressive (AR), integrated (I), moving average (MA) with exogenous variables (Xi) and the error correction mechanism (LS-ARIMAXi-ECM) model. This model is established and attempts to fill the gaps left by the old models. In fact, the model is constructed based on factors that are causal and influential for changes in CO2 emissions. Both independent variables and dependent variables must be stationary at the same level. In addition, the LS-ARIMAXi-ECM model deploys a co-integration analysis and error correction mechanism (ECM) in its modeling. The study’s findings reveal that the LS-ARIMAXi -ECM model is a forecasting model with an appropriate time period (t − i), as justified by the Q-test statistic and is not a spurious model. Therefore, it is used to forecast CO2 emissions for the next 20 years (2019 to 2038). From the study, the results show that CO2 emissions in the construction sector will increase by 37.88% or 61.09 Mt CO2 Eq. in 2038. Also, the LS-ARIMAXi -ECM model has been evaluated regarding its performance, and it produces a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.01% and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.93% as compared to the old models. Overall, the results indicate that determining future national sustainable development policies requires an appropriate forecasting model, which is built upon causal and contextual factors according to relevant sectors, to serve as an important tool for future sustainable planning.
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17

Yuliadi, Imamudin. "ANALISIS NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH DAN IMPLIKASINYA PADA PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (ECM)." Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan 8, no. 2 (December 1, 2007): 146. http://dx.doi.org/10.23917/jep.v8i2.1038.

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The changing of exchange rate is due to interaction between economic factors and non-economic factors. The aim of this research is to analyse some factors that affect exchange rate and their implications on Indonesian economy. Analytical method used in this research is explanatory method is to test hypothesis about simultaneous relationship among variables that research by developing the characteristics of verificative research by doing some testing at every step of research. We used secon-dary data taken from BI, BPS, World Bank and IFS. We used error correction model (ECM) to analysis between independent variable and dependent variable in both the short run and long run. The result of this research shows that ratio between domestic interest rate and international interest rate did not affect negative and significantly to exchange rate. Capital flow affected negative and significantly. Balance of payment affected negative and significantly. Money supply affected positive and significantly. According ECM method that used in this research shows that the methodology is good to analyse because the magnitude of ECT is accept.
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18

Efendi, Amin Yusuf. "Credit Risk Determinants in Indonesia." Efficient: Indonesian Journal of Development Economics 1, no. 2 (December 8, 2018): 106–15. http://dx.doi.org/10.15294/efficient.v1i2.30153.

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Credit is the main business of the banking industry, therefore, in running the business, the bank is always overshadowed by the credit risk the which can be determined by the ratio of non-performing loans (NPL). The development of technology, finance digital brings the outside could impact on the financial industry both positive and negative. The purpose of this study was to analyze the interest rate, inflation, exchange rates, gross domestic product (GDP), a dummy finance digitalization policies in the long term and the short term of the non-performing loan (NPL) of conventional commercial banks in Indonesia The analytical method used in this research is-EG Error Correction Model (ECM), The Data used in this research is secondary quarterly time series data from the 2008 quarter 1-2017 4. The time series of data are not stationar Often that can cause spurious regression results, the exact models used is-EG Error Correction Model (ECM), This models may explain the behavior of short-term and long-term. The results Showed in the short-term variable interest rates significanly to non-performing loans, while in the long-term variable interest rate, exchange rate, and GDP Significantly, non-performing loans. Kredit merupakan bisnis utama dari industri perbankan, oleh karena itu dalam menjalankan bisnisnya, bank selalu dibayangi oleh risiko kredit yang dapat diketahui melalui rasio non-performing loans (NPL). Perkembangan teknologi, menghadirkan digital finance yang membawa dampak luar bisa terhadap industri keuangan baik positif dan negatif. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis suku bunga, inflasi, kurs, produk domestik bruto (PDB) dummy kebijakan digitalisasi keuangan dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek terhadap non-performing loan (NPL) bank umum konvensional di Indonesia Metode analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Error Correction Model-EG (ECM). Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data sekunder runtut waktu kuartalan dari 2008 kuartal 1 – 2017 kuartal 4. Data runtun waktu sering tidak stationar sehingga bisa menyebabkan hasil regresi palsu (spurious regression), Model yang tepat digunakan adalah Error Correction Model-EG (ECM), model ini dapat menjelaskan perilaku jangka pendek dan jangka panjang. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan dalam jangka pendek variabel suku bunga berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap non performing loan, sedangkan dalam jangka panjang variabel suku bunga, kurs, dan PDB berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap non perfoming loan.
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19

Nkurunziza, Fabrice. "Money Demand in Rwanda: A Cointegration Analysis 2008Q3-2015Q4." Issues in Economics and Business 2, no. 2 (December 23, 2016): 46. http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/ieb.v2i2.10497.

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This paper estimates the demand for money in Rwanda over the 2008Q3 to 2015Q4 period via unit root and cointegration methods. Utilizing the Johansen cointegration methodology, it establishes that a long-term relationship exists among the included variables. The paper also estimates an error correction model (ECM) as well as a vector error correction model (VECM), extending previous analyses by testing for Granger causality among the variables. It finds that the narrow definition of money, M1, serves as a relatively better measure of the money aggregate than M2, and M3. The long-term interest rate (LKRR) also seems to provide relatively better results than the short-term rate (LRR, and LTR) when we use broad money definition, M2. Both the ECM and VECM for M1, narrow definition of money estimates showed the expected signs, in the ECM model as expected LM1 and LGDP were positively related while LM1 and LKRR, LRR, and LTR were negatively related. The adjustment coefficient in the ECM showed that about 79.75 % of disequilibrium is corrected in each quarter. Impulse response functions suggest that the traditional money demand function, which places LM1 as its ‘dependent’ variable while including income and interest rates as its regressors, was stable with little responses in the specific case of Rwanda over the period under review.
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20

Yusuf, Risna, and Tajerin Tajerin. "PENDUGAAN FUNGSI PENAWARAN EKSPOR RUMPUT LAUT INDONESIA DI PASAR INTERNASIONAL Analisis Pendekatan Error Correction Model (ECM)." Jurnal Sosial Ekonomi Kelautan dan Perikanan 3, no. 1 (July 21, 2017): 55. http://dx.doi.org/10.15578/jsekp.v3i1.5841.

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Kajian ini bertujuan untuk menduga faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi penawaran ekspor rumput laut Indonesia di pasar Internasional dengan menggunakan data runut waktu (time series data) tahun 1975 hingga 2005. Pendugaan persamaan penawaran ekspor rumput laut tersebut dilakukan dengan pendekatan metoda koreksi kesalahan (Error Corection Model – ECM). Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa penawaran ekspor rumput laut Indonesia ke pasar internasional dipengaruhi oleh produksi, harga ekspor, pendapatan nasional bruto negara mitra dagang, nilai tukar rupiah dan ekspor rumput laut Indenesia tahun lalu dengan arah perubahan yang sama (positif), dan harga domestik dan tingkat suku bunga dengan arah perubahan yang berlawanan (negatif). Oleh karena itu, perlu kesungguhan pemerintah bersama nelayan/pembudidaya & eksportir rumput laut untuk menjaga mutu; dan lebih meningkatkan kerjasama perdagangan dengan negara mitra dagang Indonesia (Importir), demikian juga dengan negara produsen lainnya. Tittle: The Estimation of Indonesian Seaweed Export Supply Function in the International Market : Analysis of Error Correction Model (ECM)The aim of the research was to estimate the factors affecting Indonesian seaweed export supply in international market using secondary time series data from 1975 until 2005. The estimation of supply was done using error correction model (ECM). The results show that export supply of Indonesian seaweed in international markets is affected by production, export price, gross national product, exchange rate, and lagged export of Indonesian seaweed which all have positive signs. On the other hand domestic price and interest rate have negative signs. Therefore, the government, fishers/seaweed farmers and seaweed exporter must pay more attention on seaweed quality and trade cooperation with importer and other producers.
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My, Nguyen Quang, Mustafa Sayim, and Hamid Rahman. "The Impact of Exchange Rate on Market Fundamentals: A Case Study of J-curve Effect in Vietnam." Research in Applied Economics 9, no. 1 (March 30, 2017): 45. http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/rae.v9i1.11019.

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This study examines if there is an equilibrium relationship between gross domestic product (GDP), exchange rate fluctuation and trade balance in long-term and short-term in Vietnam. The results show that the short-term and long-term exchange rate fluctuations impact the trade balance in Vietnam; both ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) and ECM (Error Correction Model) methodologies implied that exchange rate has a statistically negatively impact on the trade balance. Particularly, Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) utilized to test the long -term impact, shows the trade balance deficit becomes worse when the REER (real effective exchange rate) increases. ECM (Error Correction Model) equation based on the long-term cointegration equation and impulse response, reveals that the domestic currency devaluation could not improve the trade balance, indicating that the J-curve effect does not hold on the dong, the currency of Vietnam.
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22

Song, Byoungho. ""Nonlinear Analysis of GDP and Employment Growth Using a Smooth Transition Error Correction Model"." Journal of Market Economy 49, no. 1 (February 28, 2020): 73–101. http://dx.doi.org/10.38162/jome.49.1.4.

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23

Karunia, Nurul Yuniataqwa, and Malik Cahyadin. "FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHIKURS RUPIAH TERHADAP YEN TAHUN 1970 - 2002: ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (ECM)." Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan 6, no. 2 (May 2, 2017): 187. http://dx.doi.org/10.23917/jep.v6i2.4000.

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This research aims to find out factors influencing the exchange rate of rupiah toward yen. The approach used to analyze time series data in this study is monetary approach with ECM as the chosen regression model. The year of observation was begun in 1970-2002. Based on regression which done, the result showed that there is the significant correlation between independent variable (MI,Yreal, NP1) with dependent variable (exchange rate of Rupiah fYen). The correlation happens either in long or short term.
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24

Maharjan, Gautam. "The Relationship between Tax Revenue and Economic Growth in Nepal: A Co-integration Approach." PYC Nepal Journal of Management 11, no. 1 (August 31, 2018): 28–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/pycnjm.v11i1.35916.

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The main objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between tax revenue and economic growth in Nepal. The 43 years' annual time series data from 1974/75 to 2016/17 of GDP, tax revenue and nontax revenue have been used to test the causal relationship of the variables. A unit root test, Engle-Granger’s co-integration and Error Correction Model have been applied for the data analysis. The variables have been found stationary after first differencing I(1) when Augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test is employed. From Engel-Granger test, it has been found that the variables are co-integrated. The short-term coefficients are not significant, however error correction term (ECT) is significant and contains a negative sign in the error correction model (ECM). It validates the ECM model. The ECT has shown that the annual speed of adjustment from disequilibrium to equilibrium is 34.3 percent. So far as the relationship is concerned, there is a long run relationship between tax revenue and economic growth in Nepal controlling the non-tax revenue. The impact of tax revenue on economic growth could be a good impetus for the policy maker and planner to increase the collection of revenue for the country.
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Utama, Zamrud Siswa, M. Khusaini, and Setyo Tri Wahyudi. "Kebijakan Fiskal di Persimpangan, Pro Growth atau Pro Poor?" Indonesian Treasury Review Jurnal Perbendaharaan Keuangan Negara dan Kebijakan Publik 2, no. 2 (September 7, 2017): 67–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.33105/itrev.v2i2.28.

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ABSTRACT Indonesian fiscal policy is designed as pro growth and pro poor. Fiscal space and inequality rapid growth become constraints for this policy. Beside that constraints, pro poor and pro growth fiscal policy was debatable. Okun’s Law, Kuznet Theory and inclusive growth concept were sources of this debate. This paper investigates the impact of fiscal policy on growth and inequality. Using Error Correction Model (ECM), this paper shows that between 1980 until 2015, fiscal policy become more pro growth than pro poor. ABSTRAK Kebijakan fiskal Indonesia dirancang dalam kerangka pro growth dan pro poor. Keterbatasan ruang fiskal dan tingginya kecepatan peningkatan ketimpangan menjadi kendala. Selain kendala tersebut, usaha untuk merancang kebijakan fiskal yang pro growth dan pro poor menjadi perdebatan. Teori Kuznet, Hukum Okun, dan konsep pertumbuhan inklusif menjadi pangkal perdebatan ini. Penelitian ini bertujuan melihat dampak kebijakan fiskal terhadap pertumbuhan dan ketimpangan. Menggunakan Error Correction Model (ECM), hasil penelitian menemukan bahwa selama periode 1980 sampai dengan 2015 kebijakan fiskal cenderung mendorong pertumbuhan dibanding pemerataan.
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SE, MSi, Firdayetti, and Michel Toni Adrianto. "ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI KONSUMSI DI INDONESIA MENGGUNAKAN ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (ECM) PERIODE TAHUN 1994.1–2005.4." Media Ekonomi 19, no. 1 (November 3, 2017): 3. http://dx.doi.org/10.25105/me.v19i1.832.

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<p>The aim of the implementation of this research was to know whether the national income, the interest rate of the fixed deposit, and the interest rate of credit had the influence that was significant or not towards consumption in Indonesia, and whether being gotten by long-term and short relations towards consumption. The methodology that was utilised in this research was the Error Correction Model method (ECM) that from the OLS method, with before carried out steps as follows, that is the test, the integration test and the test of the co-integration approach of the unit root. And the data that was used in this research was the secondary data in a kwartalan manner in the period 1994:1 up to 2005:4. Was based on results of the research that was carried out, then could be concluded that results of the test of the unit root, showed all variable was not yet stationary and just was stationary in the level test of the integration. While results of the co-integration test showed the stationary consumption model so as to be able to be carried out by the test of ECM. And the results of the Error Correction Model test (ECM) showed that in the long term the national income variable had the influence that was significant towards consumption. The interest rate of the Fixed Deposit in the long term and short-term did not have the influence on consumption. The interest rate of Credit in the long term and short-term also did not have the influence that was significant towards consumption.</p><p>Keywords :Real Consumption, Real GDP, Deposit Interest Rate, Credit Interest </p>
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Hidayah, Ernawati Nurul, Z. Zainuri, and Anifatul Hanim. "Pengujian Efek Fisher Internasional: Studi Kasus Indonesia Dan China." e-Journal Ekonomi Bisnis dan Akuntansi 5, no. 1 (May 23, 2018): 26. http://dx.doi.org/10.19184/ejeba.v5i1.7728.

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The fluctuation of rupiah exchange rate caused by the application of open economy system especially with China in ACFTA international organization, which has good economy and influences in global can draw China as the worthy country in takin the policy through monetary variables. The purpose of this research is to know the short term and long term influence of the differences in Indonesia-China interest, the differences of Indonesia-China inflation, and Yuan exchange rate to rupiah exchange rate based on international fisher effect theory. This research focuses on quantitative analysis by using Error Correction Model (ECM) method. Short term ECM estimation shows that the relation between differences of interest, differences of inflation with rupiah exchange rate is not suitable with international fisher effect theory because is has positive and insignificant relation, yuan exchange rate with rupiah exchange rate is suitable with theory because is has negative. Then, the result of short term ECM estimation shows that there is a gap so the determination of rupiah exchange rate is dominated by Yuan exchange rate. The relation between the difference of interest and the difference of inflation is contrary with the theory and it is only Yuan exchange rate that has the relation with rupiah exchange rate and it is suitable with international fisher effect theory. Keywords: international fisher effect theory, rupiah exchange rate, interest, inflation, error correction model (ECM) analysis
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Rault, Christophe. "Further Results on Weak Exogeneity in Vector Error Correction Models." Brazilian Review of Econometrics 25, no. 2 (November 1, 2005): 159. http://dx.doi.org/10.12660/bre.v25n22005.2503.

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This paper extends the result for non-causality and strong exogeneity of Pradel and Rault and Pradel (2003) Exogeneity in VAR-ECM models with purely exogenous long-run paths, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics to weak exogeneity. More precisely, it provides a necessary and sufficient condition for weak exogeneity in vector error correction models. An interesting property is that the statistics involved in the sequential procedure for testing this condition are distributed as χ2 variables and can therefore be easily calculated with usual statistical computer packages, which makes our approach fully operational empirically
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Wijayanti, Amalia, and Firmansyah Firmansyah. "Analysis of Indonesian Tax Revenue." AFEBI Economic and Finance Review 1, no. 01 (March 10, 2017): 71. http://dx.doi.org/10.47312/aefr.v1i01.15.

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<p>This study analyzes the long-run and short-run effect of macroeconomic factors, such as real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), inflation rate, exchange rate and government spending on Indonesia’s tax revenue during 1976-2013, by utilizing the Error Correction Model (ECM). The finding of the study demontrates that in the long-run; the real GDP, exchange rate, and government spending affect Indonesia’s tax revenue, except the inflation rate. In short-run, Indonesia’s tax revenue statisically affected by government spending, while others variable do not influence Indonesia’s tax revenue. Error Correction Term (ECT) coefficient is 0.221, explains incompatibility tax revenue occur in long-run is corrected of 22 percent in one period.</p><p><br />JEL Classification: E01, E20, H20<br />Keywords: Error Correction Model, Macroeconomic, Tax revenue</p>
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Wibowo, Larasati Sukmadewi. "Factor Influencing Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Biodiesel Supply in Indonesia Using Error Correction Model (ECM)." Business and Economic Research 5, no. 1 (March 28, 2015): 133. http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/ber.v5i1.7070.

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Nnamocha, P., and Charles Eke. "Bank Credit and Agricultural Output in Nigeria (1970 – 2013): An Error Correction Model (ECM) Approach." British Journal of Economics, Management & Trade 10, no. 2 (January 10, 2015): 1–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.9734/bjemt/2015/19884.

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Arintoko, Arintoko. "STRUCTURAL BREAKS AND BILATERAL EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH: AN EMPIRICAL CASE OF INDONESIA–UNITED STATES." Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan 12, no. 1 (June 1, 2011): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.23917/jep.v12i1.201.

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This study estimates the exchange rate pass-through into domestic prices in Indonesia in the two-stage approach. The study focuses on first step pass-through, i.e. ERPT into import prices and second step pass-through, i.e. into consumer prices, using cointegration and error-correction mechanism (ECM) model. This research uses a Zivot-Andrews technique to test for structural breaks and Gregory-Hansen models to tests. The results show that the long run ERPT to import prices with structural breaks is relatively low compared to the results without them. The absolut error correction term values resulted from cointegration are decreased and the error-correction models need period lagged longer than one-period if the estimation included the estimated structural breaks. The main finding is that allowing for possible breaks around the crises in Indonesia, and a shift of the exchange rate management from managed to free floating in 1997 helps to restore a long run cointegration relationship estimation.
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Yusroni, Nanang. "ANALISIS DAMPAK PENURUNAN SUBSIDIBAHAN BAKAR MINYAK (BBM) SEKTOR RUMAH TANGGA DI INDONESIA." Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan: Kajian Masalah Ekonomi dan Pembangunan 3, no. 2 (January 1, 2007): 223. http://dx.doi.org/10.23917/jep.v3i2.3932.

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This paper tries to examine the impact of household fuel oil subsidy reduction on kerosene demand level during 1978 - 2000. In this research, the writer used two models to analyzed this impact and then determined one of model which explained this impact well. They were Error Correction Model (ECM) and Adjustment Partial Model PAM). The writer used kerosene consumption as a dependent variable, whereas kerosene price, income per capita price, firewood price, charcoal price, and electricity price were independent variables.
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Hadi Prabowo, Bambang. "Analisis Pendalaman Keuangan di Indonesia." Jurnal Manajemen Jayanegara 13, no. 1 (April 25, 2021): 1–5. http://dx.doi.org/10.52956/jmj.v13i1.25.

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Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui pengaruh rasio jumlah uang beredar, rasio kredit bank, dan rasio tabungan domestik terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Baik dalam jangka pendek maupun jangka panjang. Secara empiris penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder berupa data triwulanan tahunan selama tahun 2008 Q1 – 2018 Q4 dengan metode Error Correction Model (ECM). Kami menemukan bah­wa money supply ratio, rasio kredit bank dan rasio tabungan domestik berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pertum­buhan ekonomi di IndonesiaKata kunci: pertumbuhan ekonomi, rasio uang beredar, ra­sio kredit perbankan, rasio tabungan domes­tik, ECM
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Madhavan, Karunagaran, Deviga Vengedasalam, and Veera Pandiyan Vengedasalam. "Trade Liberalization and Manufacturing Growth in Malaysia A Cointegration Analysis." Social and Management Research Journal 3, no. 1 (June 1, 2006): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.24191/smrj.v3i1.5096.

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This study examines the impact of trade liberalization in the manufacturing sector in Malaysia. The theoretical framework for this study employs the Lucas model of 'human capital model of endogenous model'. This study also uses the cointergration test and error correction techniques to measure the impact of trade liberalization on Malaysian manufacturing sector during the period 1963-2003. The empirical results of cointergration test suggest that there exists a long run relationship between manufacturing output and its determinants of trade liberalization, labour, capital and education level. This study uses error correction model (ECM) to determine the short-run dynamics around the equilibrium relationship and suggest that labour and trade liberalization have emerged as significant determinants for the manufacturing output in Malaysia.
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Husman, Jardine Ariena. "ESTIMASI NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH PASKA KRISIS: Pendekatan Model Komposit." Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan 8, no. 3 (February 13, 2007): 1–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v8i3.139.

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This paper examines the factors that determined the Indonesian rupiah against US dollar nominal exchange rate post crisis period. The effect of the oil prices and the interaction of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market are included as part of explanatory variables besides other fundamentals, using an Error Correction Model (ECM). The use of composite model that incorporates a number of familiar approaches in exchange rate determination is found to outperform the model based on one single approach in term of their forecast performance. The estimation results show that the increase in oil price will depreciate the rupiah exchange rate and that risk factor is the most important factor that influences the rupiah development.JEL Classification: C22, C52, C53, E31, F31, F47Keywords: Exchange Rate, ECM, composite model, BEER, CEER, forecasting, political risk, economic risk, financial risk.
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Putri, Claudia TeziaJanuarita, and Regina Niken Wilantari. "DETERMINAN ALIRAN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT DI INDONESIA (PENDEKATAN MODEL DUNNING)." Media Trend 11, no. 2 (October 10, 2016): 141. http://dx.doi.org/10.21107/mediatrend.v11i2.1541.

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<p><em>Traffic capital across countries is one of investment opportunities from domestic and abroad to stimulate the economic growth of developing countries</em><em>. Compared to other forms of capital, Foreign Direct Investment is the flow of capital is long-term and relatively not as vulnerable to economic shocks. The aim of this study is to see the performance of FDI movement as a capital inflow in Indonesia and to explores whether factors that affect FDI using Dunning’s ecletic model. </em><em>This study focused on two basic analysis, descriptive analysis and quantitative analysis using the Error Correction Model (ECM). </em><em>The results of short-term ECM estimate shows that FDI is influenced by inflation and the degree of economic openness. Furthermore, the result in the long term ECM estimate show that only variable that infrastructure does not significantly affect the movement of FDI in Indonesia. </em></p>
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Keele, Luke, Suzanna Linn, and Clayton McLaughlin Webb. "Treating Time with All Due Seriousness." Political Analysis 24, no. 1 (2016): 31–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pan/mpv031.

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In this article, we highlight three points. First, we counter Grant and Lebo's claim that the error correction model (ECM) cannot be applied to stationary data. We maintain that when data are properly stationary, the ECM is an entirely appropriate model. We clarify that for a model to be properly stationary, it must be balanced. Second, we contend that while fractional integration techniques can be useful, they also have important weaknesses, especially when applied to many time series typical in political science. We also highlight two related but often ignored complications in time series: low power and overfitting. We argue that the statistical tests used in time-series analyses have little power to detect differences in many of the sample sizes typical in political science. Moreover, given the small sample sizes, many analysts overfit their time-series models. Overfitting occurs when a statical model describes random error or noise instead of the underlying relationship. We argue that the results in the Grant and Lebo replications could easily be a function of overfitting.
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Safitri, Zasya, and Lia Yuliana. "PENERAPAN MODEL ERROR CORRECTION MECHANISM: DETERMINAN PRODUKSI KOPI DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2002-2018." Seminar Nasional Official Statistics 2020, no. 1 (January 5, 2021): 946–56. http://dx.doi.org/10.34123/semnasoffstat.v2020i1.561.

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Kopi merupakan salah satu komoditas hasil perkebunan yang mempunyai peran cukup penting dalam kegiatan perekonomian di Indonesia. Namun, produksi kopi di Indonesia mengalami kondisi yang berfluktuatif. Sementara itu, kondisi pasar kopi di dalam negeri masih cukup besar dengan diikuti peluang kopi sebagai komoditas ekspor yang semakin terbuka. Dalam jangka panjang, dikhawatirkan produksi kopi tidak dapat memenuhi pasar domestik maupun internasional. Adapun tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis faktor-faktor yang berpengaruh dalam jangka panjang dan jangka pendek pada produksi kopi di Indonesia sebagai penentu kebijakan yang tepat untuk meningkatkan produksinya. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Error Correction Mechanism (ECM) dengan periode penelitian mulai dari tahun 2002 sampai dengan tahun 2018. Berdasarkan hasil pembahasan, dalam jangka panjang variabel luas tanam menghasilkan dan harga kopi domestik berpengaruh signifikan terhadap produksi kopi sedangkan variabel jumlah petani kopi tidak signifikan dalam mempengaruhi produksi kopi. Selanjutnya, dalam jangka pendek hanya variabel jumlah petani kopi yang berpengaruh secara signifikan terhadap produksi kopi sedangkan variabel luas tanam menghasilkan dan harga kopi domestik tidak signifikan dalam mempengaruhi produksi kopi.
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Nuryati, Yati, Bagus Wicaksena, and Dwi Wahyuniarti Prabowo. "Dampak Penerapan Harga Acuan Pembelian (HAP) Gula di Tingkat Eceran Terhadap Harga Gula Petani dan Stabilitas Harga Gula." Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan 13, no. 1 (July 31, 2019): 137–62. http://dx.doi.org/10.30908/bilp.v13i1.354.

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Abstrak Pemerintah berupaya menjaga stabilitas harga bahan pangan pokok melalui berbagai kebijakan penetapan harga. Salah satunya adalah kebijakan penetapan Harga Acuan Pembelian (HAP) pada komoditas gula. Dalam implementasinya, penerapan HAP Gula di tingkat eceran dinilai berdampak pada penurunan harga gula di tingkat petani/produsen. Kajian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh penerapan HAP Gula terhadap harga lelang gula petani dan stabilitas harga gula, dan merumuskan rekomendasi kebijakan HAP Gula yang efektif. Dengan menggunakan pendekatan analisis ekonometrik melalui Error Correction Model (ECM), hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan HET berpengaruh terhadap harga lelang gula petani dalam jangka pendek. Dalam jangka panjang, harga lelang gula petani lebih ditentukan oleh harga gula impor, stok gula nasional, dan harga lelang gula pada periode sebelumnya. Kebijakan yang berpengaruh signifikan terhadap harga lelang gula yaitu penerapan PPN Gula. Kajian ini merekomendasikan bahwa penetapan kebijakan HAP pada komoditi gula dapat terus dilakukan dalam rangka stabilisasi harga dengan melakukan evaluasi secara berkala. Pemerintah dapat mempertahankan HAP gula sebesar Rp 12.500/kg yang didukung oleh beberapa hal yaitu: menangguhkan penerapan PPN gula petani; mengawasi keberadaan satgas pangan; menerapkan pengawasan pasar gula yang memberikan kepastian pada petani, pabrik gula, dan konsumen. Kata Kunci: Kebijakan HAP, Error Correction Model (ECM), Stabilisasi Harga Gula Abstract The Government strives to keep price stability of staple food through price policy, the so-called “Harga Acuan Pembelian (HAP) for sugar”. During its implementation, the policy has given negative impact on farm gate price. This study aims to analyze the effect of HAP for sugar to farm gate price which is reflected in auction price as well as its impact to price stabilization, and formulate effective policy recommendations on HAP for sugar. Using Error Correction Model (ECM), the study shown that HAP for sugar significantly impacted the auction price yet in the short term. While for the long term, the auction price of sugar was more affected by import sugar price, national sugar stock, and sugar auction price in previous period. Moreover, the implementation of value added tax (VAT) on sugar affected significantly to the auction price. The study recommended the HAP for sugar can be consistently implemented with periodic evaluation. Accordingly, the Government can maintain the prevailing HAP at Rp 12.500/kg which has to be supported by forgoing the VAT policy on sugar; monitoring the role of task force; and strongly supervising the domestic sugar market that is favourable to farmers, sugar millers, and consumers. Keywords: Price Policy, Error Correction Model (ECM), Sugar Price Stabilization JEL Classification: E31, Q13,Q18
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Muhammad Rismawan Ridha. "ERROR CORRECTION MODEL ANALYSIS OF THE DETERMINANT OF STABILITY OF FINANCIAL SYSTEM IN INDONESIA." Jurnal Lebesgue : Jurnal Ilmiah Pendidikan Matematika, Matematika dan Statistika 1, no. 2 (August 26, 2020): 82–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.46306/lb.v1i2.19.

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The current condition of economic openness is both an opportunity and a challenge that must be faced wisely by the government. Liberalization and economic integration will have an impact on financial market liberalization, which is highly vulnerable to create crisis in a banking system. This study aims to analyze the factors that influence the stability of the financial system in Indonesia by using the Error Correction Model (ECM). The variables used in this research is Capital Banking Credit sourced from Statistics Indonesia (BPS) and Exchange Rate, Inflation, and Money Supply sourced from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) between 2010 and 2015. The results of the study show that; 1) ECT coefficient which has negative and significant value explains that the model is valid. 2) Inflation significantly affects the stability of the financial system in Indonesia in the long and short term
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Djebbouri, Mohammed, Abdelkarim Mansouri, and Abderrahmane Tahi. "Determinants of Money Demand in Algeria: An Empirical Study Using Cointegration and Error Correction Model." Modern Applied Science 13, no. 10 (September 18, 2019): 78. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/mas.v13n10p78.

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This investigation aims primarily to estimate the determinants of the demand function of money in its broad sense, in Algeria during the period 1980-2017. To accomplish this study, Cointegration and Error Correction Model (ECM) have been used. Thus, these tests proved the no stationary of time series which led us to apply the cointegration tests, so in the end we estimate the model with error correction. The results of this estimation show that the importance of determinants of money demand in the short and long term are ordered as follows: real income, the velocity of circulation of money (VM2) in the short and long term, the long-term exchange rate; in the short term its importance diminishes in favor of inflation, which has a decisive effect on the demand for money in the short term. The findings reveal that the money demand function is insensitive to the interest rate, which explains why speculation is generally regarded as a less important reason in Algeria.
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Putri, Ina Namora, and Fuji Astuty. "Pengaruh Kurs dan Produk Domestik Bruto Terhadap Neraca Transaksi Berjalan Melalui Pendekatan Error Correction Model (ECM)." JEMPER (Jurnal Ekonomi Manajemen Perbankan) 2, no. 1 (January 18, 2020): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.32897/jemper.v2i1.250.

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Stockton, Mathew C., David A. Bessler, and Roger K. Wilson. "Price Discovery in Nebraska Cattle Markets." Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics 42, no. 1 (February 2010): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1074070800003254.

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Monthly observations on prices from 10 weight/gender classifications of Nebraska beef cattle are studied in an error correction model (ECM) framework. This study attempts a replication of the 2003 paper on Texas prices by Bessler and Davis, where they find medium heifers (600-700 1b) at the center of price discovery. Using the ECM results Nebraska light steers are found to be weakly exogenous, with the innovation accounting results showing marked differences. Industry structure, production choices, and animal type and breeding herd differences between Texas and Nebraska are proposed as plausible reasons for partial (or incomplete) success at replication.
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Kurniawan, Tria Sandi, Dyah Wulan Sari, and Dyah Reni Irmawati. "Analisis Pengaruh Realisasi Belanja Pemerintah Terhadap Penerimaan Pajak di Indonesia." Indonesian Treasury Review: Jurnal Perbendaharaan, Keuangan Negara dan Kebijakan Publik 5, no. 3 (September 30, 2020): 171–81. http://dx.doi.org/10.33105/itrev.v5i3.212.

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This study examines the effect of the realization of government spending consisting of goods expenditure, capital expenditure and employee expenditure on tax revenue in Indonesia. In this study, we use four analytical methods that consist of Granger Test, Partial Adjustment Model (PAM), Error Correction Model (ECM) and Vector Autoregression (VAR). The result shows that the realization of goods and employee expenditure are significant determinant of the tax revenue. Further examination shows that the shocks on goods and employee expenditure have a positive impacts toward tax revenue. However the shock effect are different on those variables. On the shock to goods expenditure, the tax revenue response will occur directly, in contrast to shock on employee expenditure that requires time lag. This study also find that between PAM and ECM, the ECM model is more appropriate to be used to explain the effect of government spending on tax revenue in Indonesia.
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Wahyudi, Setyo Tri, Rinny Apriliany Zakaria, and Nurul Badriyah. "Komparasi Jalur Moneter untuk Stabilitas Harga Dalam Kerangka Inflation Targeting Framework (Studi kasus pada interest rate, exchange rate dan credit channel)." Jurnal Ekonomi Bisnis dan Kewirausahaan 8, no. 3 (December 19, 2019): 181. http://dx.doi.org/10.26418/jebik.v8i3.34350.

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The monetary policy transmission mechanism has many ways in influencing inflation. This method became known as the monetary path. The use of appropriate channels in monetary policy will affect whether or not the objectives of the monetary policy are achieved. This study aims to determine which monetary path is appropriate for Indonesia, which is a developing country with an open economic system. The data used are secondary data taken from Bank Indonesia for the period 2005 to 2016. The research variables include inflation, BI-rate, credit interest rates (SBB), gross domestic product (GDP), exchange rate, bank reserve (BBR), and the amount of credit extended. This study focuses on the path of interest rates, exchange rates and bank credit using the Error Correction Model (ECM). The results of this study indicate that the right monetary path for Indonesia is the credit channel. This is because the value of the Error Correction Term (ECT) coefficient on the ECM model shows that the coefficient of the credit channel is smaller than the interest rate and exchange rate channel, which means that the imbalance that occurs can be resolved more quickly with the credit channel.
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Sumaryani, Wahyu Nuning. "PENGARUH REALISASI PENERIMAAN PAJAK BAGI PERTUMBUHAN PEREKONOMIAN NEGARA INDONESIA." Jurnal Litbang Sukowati : Media Penelitian dan Pengembangan 3, no. 1 (November 15, 2019): 12. http://dx.doi.org/10.32630/sukowati.v3i1.84.

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Pertumbuhandalam Ekonomi adalah masalah perekonomian untuk jangka waktu panjang dan mendapat pengaruh dari banyak faktor. Penelitian ini memiliki tujuan menganalisis pengaruh realisasi penerimaan pajak, pendidikan, inflasi, dan pengangguran, terhadap pertumbuhan perekonomian Indonesia. Metode analisis yang dipergunakan yaitu Error Correction Model (ECM). Digunakan data sekunder (untuk tujuan analisis) yaitu data time series tahun 1988 – 2017, berupa data realisasi penerimaan pajak, pengangguran, inflasi, pendidikan dan PDB Indonesia. Data dimaksud didapat dari sumber data Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). Hasil estimasi mempergunakan Error Correction Model (ECM) saat meneliti faktor yang memberikan pengaruh pertumbuhan ekonomi memperlihatkan dalam jangka waktu pendek maupun jangka waktu panjang realisasi penerimaan pajak memiliki pengaruh positif kepada pertumbuhan ekonomi. Inflasi berpengaruh positif dan pngaruh signifikan dalam jangka waktu panjang. Pengangguran dalam jangka waktu panjang memiliki pengaruh positif dan signifikan, sedang pendidikan juga memiliki pengaruh positif dan pengaruh signifikan kepada pertumbuhan ekonomi negara Indonesia. Pertumbuhan ekonomi negara Indonesia bisa ditingkatkan lagi dengan bermacam cara, diantara caranya yaitu pemerintah semestinya memaksimalkan perolehan realisasi pajak nasional yang mrupakan sumber pembiayaan pembangunan, mengendalikan dan mengontrol tingkat inflasi, memperbesar lapangan pekerjaan dengan orientasi padat karya, dan meningkatkan mutu SDM sebagai pelaku ekonomi dengan memperbaiki mutu pendidikan.
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48

Hilal, Adam Syaiful, and Vera Lisna. "Pengaruh Dwelling Time pada Penerimaan Pajak Impor di Indonesia." Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia 19, no. 2 (April 2, 2019): 147–59. http://dx.doi.org/10.21002/jepi.v19i2.792.

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High dwelling time in Indonesia has been in the spotlight of President since his visit to the Port of Tanjung Priok in 2014. This could bring impact on international trade, one of which is indicated by import tax revenue. The value of import in Indonesia which continues to fall has brought impact to lower country revenue from import tax. The objective of this study is to analyze the effect of dwelling time on import tax revenue in Indonesia. The results from recursive equation system of Error Correction Model (ECM) by using data during January 2014 to November 2016 show that lower dwelling time will increase import tax revenue in Indonesia. ------------------------------------ Lamanya dwelling time menjadi sorotan Presiden RI sejak kunjungannya ke Pelabuhan Tanjung Priok tahun 2014 silam. Hal ini dapat berdampak pada perdagangan internasional, salah satunya diukur dari penerimaan pajak impor. Nilai impor Indonesia yang terus turun berdampak pada rendahnya penerimaan negara dari pajak impor. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh dwelling time pada penerimaan pajak impor di Indonesia. Berdasarkan hasil estimasi sistem persamaan rekursif Error Correction Model (ECM) dengan data periode Januari 2014–November 2016 diketahui bahwa dwelling time yang lebih rendah akan meningkatkan penerimaan pajak impor di Indonesia.
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49

Chikri, Hassan, Adil Moghar, Manar Kassou, and Faris Hamza. "New evidence from NARDL model on CO2 emissions: Case of Morocco." E3S Web of Conferences 234 (2021): 00026. http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/202123400026.

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The main objective of this study is to examine the effect of sickle energy consumption, renewable energy, and forest area on the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) in Morocco. Many studies have abord this subject using a different approachs, most of which have used econometric models such as Vector Autoregressive (VAR) Error Correction Model (ECM) and Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). In this study, we opted for the Non-linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model. The data used covers the period from 1990 to 2018 (annual data). The results of our model are significant and prove the asymmetric effects of the explanatory variables on CO2 emissions.
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50

Doriyanto, Triatmo. "STABILKAH PERMINTAAN UANG DI INDONESIA SEBELUM DAN SELAMA KRISIS ?" Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan 2, no. 2 (October 11, 2003): 77–95. http://dx.doi.org/10.21098/bemp.v2i2.197.

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Tulisan ini mencoba mengetahui apakah permintaan uang riil di Indonesia selama periode sebelum krisis (sebelum Agustus 1997) dan saat krisis tetap stabil. Analisis stasioner dan integrasi dengan menggunakan uji Augmented Dickey Fuller serta analisis kointegrasi dengan menggunakan uji Johansen menunjukkan adanya hubungan kointegrasi di antara variabel-variabel : currency riil dan PDB riil. Model permintaan uang riil dinamis dengan menggunakan Error Correction Model (ECM) menunjukkan konsistensi parameter secara signifikan, juga pada saat krisis.
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