Academic literature on the topic 'Error in nomine'

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“É com grande prazer que faço a abertura desse relatório. Ele muito me orgulha, pois me representa, me homenageia e abre oportunidades para os meus. Meu nome é Anyky Gonçalves de Lima, mais conhecida como Anyky Lima. Tenho 65 anos e eu falo da importância de hoje ter o ambulatório trans aqui em Minas Gerais. Eu sou carioca e nunca tive acesso a saúde na minha juventude. Aos 12 anos de idade, eu fui expulsa de casa, por já me perceber uma pessoa trans, uma criança ainda. Naquela época, as pessoas não respeitavam a nossa identidade de gênero, e ainda não respeitam. Naquela época, não respeitavam o nosso nome social, e ainda não respeitam. Isso nos impedia de irmos aos lugares públicos, inclusive em hospitais. Olhavam pra gente na recepção de um serviço e via um nome masculino em nosso documento e chamavam a gente desse nome. Eu via muita gente, muitas amigas morrerem dentro de casa com vergonha de ir ao hospital, não saiam em lugares públicos por não serem respeitadas. Porque não tem nada pior que está numa recepção de um hospital, uma sala cheia de gente e o médico, a recepcionista ou qualquer outro funcionário gritar o nome masculino e levantar aquela mulher feita, toda produzida. O acesso a saúde no que se refere a um ambulatório trans, especializado para nós mulheres e homens trans, é muito recente. Na minha época, quando comecei a minha transição, não tinha. Fiz tudo sozinha, com erros e acertos. E hoje tem o ambulatório trans para nos acolher. Um orgulho muito grande que eu tenho é o ambulatório receber o meu nome. Foi uma homenagem que eu não vou esquecer. Normalmente as pessoas fazem homenagem para quem já morreu, e eu estou viva, "muito viva". Só lembrando que nos matam aos 35 anos e eu estou aqui resistindo a tudo isso. Então isso pra mim foi uma homenagem muito grande. Me sinto honrada com a consideração das pessoas por terem colocado o nome do ambulatório de Anyky Lima. Hoje eu sou uma usuária do serviço. Eu me consulto neste ambulatório e me sinto agradecida por, depois de tantos anos, ter um serviço que me atenda e atenda os meus, que me trata e tratam a minha população. Eu vivi 65 anos para ver essa maravilha que aconteceu, então eu acho que o ambulatório é pra mim a coisa mais importante que aconteceu em Minas Gerais, pois atende uma população que não tinha acesso nenhum a saúde e hoje são tratadas com dignidade e respeito.”

Este libro contiene artículos de destacados profesores, los cuales reflexionan sobre temas de amplia repercusión en la teoría jurídica contemporánea. En el artículo Modest Objectivity e Interpretación Jurídica Aldo Schiavello analiza el trabajo de Jules Coleman y Brian Leiter sobre su propuesta de objetividad (denominada modest objectivity) y que aspira a superar el carácter indeterminable de las decisiones judiciales. Para Schiavello esta propuesta es insatisfactoria, pues debemos tener en cuenta que la noción filosófica de objetividad se relaciona con un determinado paradigma filosófico y epistemológico y en esa medida condicionan la estructura mental del sujeto. Schiavello nos recuerda que podemos distinguir entre varias nociones de objetividad. La clásica división entre objetividad fuerte y objetividad débil. La objetividad es fuerte cuando es independiente del mundo interior y es débil cuando es compartido por una comunidad lingüística. Pero interesante clasificación es la realizada por Andrei Marmor, quien diferencia entre objetividad semántica, objetividad metafísica y objetividad lógica. Según Marmor un enunciado es objetivo semánticamente si gira en torno a un objetivo y es subjetivo si afecta el estado mental de quien lo produce. Es decir, saber si un discurso es objetivo o subjetivo es la intención lingüística del hablante, además, esta dicotomía se caracteriza porque no tiene una relación con la verdad A diferencia de la objetividad semántica, la objetividad metafísica está muy estrechamente relacionada a la noción de verdad. Un enunciado es objetivo metafísicamente si existe una correspondencia entre un enunciado y el objeto en el mundo que describe con las propiedades correspondientes a su descripción en el enunciado en cuestión. Marmor afirma que entre la objetividad metafísica y realismo metafísico no existe una relación necesaria. Por un lado, el realismo moral afirma que es posible predicar la verdad o la falsedad de enunciados que contienen valoraciones morales, estos enunciados son verdaderos o falsos sin tomar en cuenta nuestras opiniones y que los estándares del razonamiento moral son un método adecuado para incrementar el conocimiento moral. Por último, la objetividad lógica implica la verdad, pero no implica determinabilidad. No es sencillo diferenciar entre objetividad lógica y objetividad metafísica, pues se puede afirmar que la objetiva metafísica implica objetiva lógica, pero no se puede afirmar lo mismo a la inversa. En tal sentido, la relación entre objetividad y conceptos como realismo, verdad y determinabilidad, cambia según el concepto de objetividad asumido. Para Schiavello, el concepto de objetividad propuesto por Coleman y Leiter es una propuesta intermedia entre objetividad metafísica y objetividad lógica. Schiavello señala que en el campo jurídico, el problema de la objetividad se relaciona con la interpretación y aplicación normativa e implica un conjunto de presupuestos teóricos sobre la concepción del derecho y la interpretación jurídica, además de relacionarse, generalmente, con el ideal de la seguridad jurídica. Es en este aspecto en el cual la objetividad se vincula con aspectos políticos, es decir, con un modelo de organización política como el Estado liberal de Derecho en el cual la certeza tiene un papel importante y que además de las normas generales es importante tener certidumbre sobre la interpretación y aplicación que realizarán los jueces. Schiavello nos recuerda que el tema de la objetividad de la interpretación del derecho está vinculado al valor de la certeza y, por lo tanto, los discursos sobre la objetividad plantean no solo cuestiones filosóficas sino también tiene repercusiones y relaciones políticas que se deben considerar. Como afirma el autor “una concepción de la objetividad de la interpretación del derecho presupone, implícita o explícitamente, una concepción de la identificación del derecho; las teorías de la identificación del derecho que excluyen la referencia a valores morales por los criterios de validez permiten identificar el derecho de manera más precisa que otras; quien, como Coleman o Dworkin, defiende la objetividad de la interpretación a partir de una concepción de la identificación del derecho que no excluye la referencia a valores morales por los criterios de validez, debe tomar en serio los problemas que ello conlleva”. Coleman y Leiter aspiran a construir una concepción liberal del derecho de las críticas formuladas por el Critical Legal Studies Movement. Ambos autores señalan que el error del Critical Legal Studies Movement es que la intrínseca indeterminación del derecho es incompatible con una concepción liberal del mismo. Recordemos que en el esquema de organización política de un Estado, uno de los postulados del liberalismo es un poder legislativo elegido democráticamente y las leyes aprobadas son aplicadas por el poder judicial, por ello, las decisiones judiciales deben ser determinadas. En tal sentido, las razones más importantes para decidir una disputa legal las proporcionan los legisladores. Si estas razones no motivan las decisiones de los jueces, entonces es dudoso afirmar la existencia de reglas democráticas en el Estado. Las objeciones que se han dirigido a la propuesta de reconstrucción de la determinabilidad en el derecho formulada por Coleman y Leiter son dos. La primera objeción está vinculada a la imposibilidad de distinguir con precisión los casos fáciles de los casos difíciles y la segunda se refiere al problema de la llamada indeterminación de segundo nivel. Según ambos autores el problema de la objetividad se refiere al status de los hechos jurídicos y la autoridad del derecho está justificado solo si los hechos jurídicos son objetivos. Coleman y Leiter rechazan la objetividad en sentido fuerte, es decir, lo que parece correcto a alguien no puede determinar lo correcto para los demás, también rechaza la objetividad mínima según la cual lo que parece correcto a la mayor parte de los miembros de una comunidad determina lo que es efectivamente correcto. Ambos autores están a favor de un “objetividad modesta” según la cual lo correcto es lo afirmado por sujetos en “condiciones epistémicas ideales”. Schiavello piensa que la alternativa propuesta por Coleman y Leiter no logra escapar de la objetividad en sentido fuerte y la objetividad mínima; y por el contrario, considera que su propuesta de objetividad puede ser entendida como una versión de la objetividad metafísica o de la objetividad mínima. Por ello, las críticas que Coleman y Leiter dirigen a estas dos concepciones de la objetividad se vuelcan en contra de su propuesta de objetividad modesta. Según la objetividad modesta es efectivamente correcto lo que parece a aquellos que se encuentran en “condiciones epistémicas ideales”. Estas condiciones pueden ser definidas como las mejores condiciones para alcanzar un conocimiento fiable de algo. En consecuencia, la objetividad modesta admite la posibilidad de errores, pero, a diferencia de la objetividad en sentido fuerte, esta incapacidad se debe a no poder plantearse la mejor perspectiva de observación. Coleman y Leiter no aspiran a desarrollar una concepción universal de la objetividad, sino solo una concepción de la objetividad que permita explicar en forma más conveniente la práctica interpretativa en el derecho. concepción de la objetividad sino que aspira a resaltar la relación que existe entre este concepto y otros elementos conceptuales más amplios, como la política, por ejemplo. Además, el autor identifica las dificultades que pueden generarse al proponer una vía intermedia (como la “objetividad modesta”) entre la objetividad en sentido fuerte y la objetividad en sentido débil. Eso no implica afirmar que sea imposible construir esta vía intermedia, pero sí resalta la necesidad de tomar consciencia de las dificultades para una audaz y bien estructurada nueva concepción de la objetividad. El ensayo de Vittorio Villa se dirige a esclarecer los diferentes conceptos sobre positivismo jurídico, en particular el de inclusive legal positivism (positivismo jurídico inclusivo) pues entiende que esta versión del positivismo es la más defendible y prometedora de las versiones iuspositivistas. Por ello, Villa aporta aclaraciones conceptuales de carácter epistemológico, metodológico y meta-teórico con la finalidad de poder ofrecer una versión del mencionado positivismo más coherente y defendible respecto a lo que sus principales exponentes han hecho. Villa parte de esclarecer el concepto de positivismo jurídico y sus articulaciones en forma de concepciones, para ello el autor identifica el contenido conceptual mínimo compartido por todas las versiones del iuspositivismo. Asimismo, realiza un esclarecimiento mediante análisis comparativo entre el positivismo inclusivo y positivismo exclusivo consideradas como concepciones del concepto de positivismo jurídico. Así, para Villa el positivismo inclusivo es un programa de investigación más prometedor y fecundo que el positivismo exclusivo. Otra clarificación importante que realiza Villa es la postura que adopta el positivismo inclusivo y el positivismo exclusivo en relación a la tesis conceptual de separación entre derecho y moral, enfocándose en los argumentos con los cuales el positivismo inclusivo justifica la intromisión de contenidos morales en los procedimientos con que jueces y juristas garantizarán la existencia y el contenido de las normas jurídicas formando parte de los Estados de derecho constitucionales. Villa parte por definir el iuspositivismo y el contenido conceptual mínimo compartido por todas las concepciones que puedan calificarse como tales. Este contenido conceptual está formado por una tesis sobre el derecho y por ello en una preocupación ontológica y una tesis sobre el conocimiento del derecho y por ello en una preocupación metodológica. Según la primera tesis, afirma Villa, “todos los fenómenos (en primer lugar, las reglas) que llevan el nombre de “derecho” constituyen invariablemente instancias de derecho positivo, y por tanto de un derecho que representa el producto normativo (y aquí evidentemente la potencialmente evasiva propiedad de la normatividad está por especificar por parte de las diferentes concepciones), de tipo convencional (en un sentido por precisar ulteriormente), de decisiones y/o de comportamientos humanos históricamente contingentes desde el punto de vista cultural, y por lo tanto, más en particular, desde el punto de vista ético-político”. Según Villa el elemento más importante por resaltar en la contraposición entre el positivismo inclusivo y el positivismo exclusivo es el vinculado a la diferente interpretación que estas dos concepciones proporcionan de la tesis de la separación. El mismo Villa afirma que “de acuerdo al positivismo inclusivo los criterios de naturaleza moral pueden muy bien servir para verificar la existencia y el contenido de las normas de un sistema jurídico. Según el positivismo exclusivo los tests para identificar la existencia y el contenido de las normas jurídicas dependen exclusivamente de hechos del comportamiento susceptibles de ser descritos en términos neutrales, y de ser aplicados sin recurrir a argumentos morales”. El autor nos recuerda que para el positivismo inclusivo la conexión es una tesis que se desarrolla “dentro de las actividades de jueces y estudiosos del derecho que tengan que ver con normas, entre la actividad destinada a determinar la existencia (en el sentido de validez) y la de determinar el contenido”, entendiendo que no se trata, de una conexión necesaria entre derecho y moral sino a una conexión que se desarrolla en una determinado contexto institucional representado por los Estados de derecho constitucionales contemporáneos que es el ámbito institucional que permite la validez de las tesis del positivismo inclusivo. Villa entiende que el positivismo inclusivo, dentro del positivismo jurídico mismo, tiene mayores recursos teóricos para explicar el cambio de paradigma que ha ocurrido en los Estados de derecho y que se materializan a través de las constituciones escritas y rígidas, además que las normas constitucionales en nuestros Estados de derecho contemporáneos establecen restricciones de carácter procesal a la producción de normas, sino también restricciones sustanciales y estas últimas provienen de un tipo de normas especiales (que para muchos son positivización de la moral): los principios. Villa “señala que el contenido de muchas de las disposiciones constitucionales que hacen referencia a valores morales es de carácter muy general, a veces también genérico, cuando no es –más o menos conscientemente– ambiguo. Por tanto, rendir cuenta del contenido semántico de estas disposiciones quiere decir en cada caso, efectuar las opciones interpretativas que privilegian –no necesariamente en forma arbitraria– uno de los posibles significados que estos enunciados pueden soportar; y hacer esto quiere decir también entrar en la cuestión del posible significado de atribuir a nociones essentially contested como “libertad”, “igualdad”, “democracia”, etcétera. Dichas disposiciones, además, no se presentan nunca por sí solas en un texto constitucional, sino junto a muchas otras, en una red muy confusa de enunciados entre ellos estrechamente interrelacionados. Una de las consecuencias de la naturaleza compleja de estas disposiciones es que su interpretación no es muy a menudo capaz de vislumbrar un orden jerárquico previamente preconstituido, capaz de determinar, de una vez por todas, cuáles son los principios más importantes, y bajo qué interpretación de su contenido. Esto ocurre –al menos– por dos razones fundamentales, una de carácter teórico-lingüístico, otra de carácter filosófico-político: i) con la primera se quiere poner en evidencia, como ya he dicho antes, que el contenido de estos principios es vago, genérico, a veces ambiguo, y no permite rastrear un orden preexistente; ii) con la segunda se observa que, en cada caso, el carácter pluralista de los valores presentes dentro de nuestras cartas constitucionales excluye la previa codificación de un orden jerárquico fijo e inmutable”. La parte más interesante del artículo de Villa es su propuesta constructivista del positivismo jurídico. El autor piensa que una importante tarea del positivismo jurídico, en su versión constructivista, es la de ofrecer una concepción alternativa a la concepción fuerte de la objetividad. Aun así, se debe destacar que entre las diferentes concepciones epistemológicas actuales existen aquellas que aspiran a constituirse en una vía intermedia entre objetivismo fuerte y relativismo fuerte. “Entre estas posiciones, el enfoque constructivista aspira a identificar el núcleo de esta “vía intermedia” en la transición de una objetividad metafísica a una objetividad epistémica”.

The role of the banking sector in driving economic development cannot be understated. Its stability is a critical factor that sets the pace for economic progress. Among the various indicators of financial stability, non-performing loans (NPLs) held by banks hold particular significance as they reflect asset quality, credit risk, and the efficient allocation of resources to productive sectors. NPLs have indeed been a subject of concern for the banking sector, with their prominence intensifying, especially after the 2008 financial crisis. This study investigates the relationship between Macroeconomic factors and non-performing loans in Lao PDR. The secondary data of four variables, namely, Interest Lending rate, CPI-Inflation, Nominal exchange rate, and Money supply from the first quarter of 2012 to the last quarter of 2021 have been collected in order to analyze the long-term relationship among economic factors and estimate the short-term adjustment toward the long-term equilibrium level. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is applied to measure short-term adjustment toward the long-term equilibrium level. Based on the estimation results of the Vector Error Correction Model, two variables have a positive and significant effect on long-term non-performing loans, namely, lending interest rate, and money supply, and a significant inverse relationship with inflation, and exchange rate. Meanwhile, in the short term, only lending interest rates have a significant effect on non-performing loans.

Gli scholl. ex. Od. IV 356a1 e VIII 372b Pontani veicolano due citazioni verbatim di un erudito che dichiarava di aver osservato, a Menfi, alcune conchiglie fossili, e di aver assistito, a Sparta, a competizioni chiamate sphairomachia. Questo personaggio, il cui nome è riportato dai manoscritti in forma più o meno corrotta, è stato a lungo identificato nel grammatico Pio, un erudito che fu verosimilmente attivo in età imperiale. Diversi indizi, tuttavia, inducono a credere che la registrazione del nome di Pio sia esito di una corruzione avvenuta nel corso della tradizione manoscritta, e che i due frammenti restituiscano materiale assegnabile ad Apione.

La tematica dell’errare accompagna la storia della letteratura latina con una semantica che abbraccia tanto le peregrinazioni dell’epica quanto la perdita del sé e il vagare proprio dell’invasamento bacchico tragico. Questo contributo ricapitola alcune tappe dell’uso metapoetico dell’error nella letteratura di età repubblicana, per poi soffermarsi sulla loro rievocazione nell’Eneide, e in particolar modo nell’episodio di Didone. Eroina “errante” par excellence (come proposto da un’antica etimologia del suo nome tramandataci da Timeo), Didone nell’Eneide diventa vero e proprio simbolo della “deviazione” dalle logiche storiche e morali che governano il poema. Allo stesso tempo, la regina è anche capace di rievocare e commentare gli “errori” del poeta, mettendo luce su un’inconsistenza temporale del poema per esporre l’intera natura fittizia e anacronistica del suo incontro con Enea.

Abstract Chapter 6 examines one area of nominal syntax; that is adverbial phrases. Greek and Coptic clearly diverge in this area with Greek drawing on both prepositional phrases and plain cases, whereas Coptic can only utilize the former option. The chapter is divided into three parts: Section 6.1 applies the concept of constructions to adverbial phrases. Section 6.2 details deviations by type of error. Section 6.3 evaluates the distribution of the observed errors against the predictor variables set out in Chapter 2. Section 6.4 briefly reviews some avoidance patterns relevant to the syntax of adverbial phrases.

Chapter 1 reviews basic concepts of biostatistics. Topics include descriptive data, probability and odds, estimation and sampling error, hypothesis testing, and power and sample size calculations. The discussion of descriptive data includes types of data (discrete vs continuous and nominal vs ordinal), central tendency (mean, median, and mode), skewed distributions, and measures of dispersion (range, variance, standard deviation). Probability and odds are broken down into laws of probability, odds, odds ratio, relative risk, and probability distribution. The examination of estimation and sampling error covers concepts such as random error, bias, standard error, point estimation, and interval estimation.

Medical records have been evolving from the traditional paper-based records to digital ones, from the method of dictating reports and transcription to voice recognition systems. The transition to digital operations will not be complete until we have the ability to combine voice recognition with automated indexing of texts. This paper introduces the methods we used to evaluate existing voice recognition software programs and presents NOMINDEX, a system that turns a medical text into MeSH codes, using the French ADM lexical database. Those systems were applied to 28 patient discharge summaries in French, produced after a coronarography, and extracted from the MENELAS corpus of texts. Using the best configuration for voice recognition, the rate of accurate recognition exceeds 98 percent. Among the indexing concepts assigned by NOMINDEX, 25 percent were not pertinent and 12 percent of the relevant concepts were missing. Most errors were related to confusion between common language and medical language, and to the coverage of the ADM lexical database. Best results would be expected with a more comprehensive lexical resource In addition, only 3 percent of the errors generated by inadequate voice recognition that remained in the configuration that performed better, impacted on automatic indexing by NOMINDEX.

This chapter illustrates how politics played a part in the Senate's refusal to confirm John Early's appointment as governor of Mountain Province. Leonard Wood first appointed Early on March 1, 1925, but the Senate only confirmed his appointment during the last days of August 1927, just days after Governor-General Wood's unexpected death. In his first three years as governor, Early witnessed unprecedented advances among the Igorots. His 1926 and 1927 provincial annual reports are the most cited from the era of American rule. He delivered numerous speeches explaining the innate genius of the Igorots' morality and sense of justice. As 1927 came to a close, life was good for Early: Dean Worcester had apologized to him, the Philippine Senate acknowledged its earlier error in not confirming such an effective and gracious nominee, and he savored the opportunity to tirelessly serve the people he loved.

This paper revisits probabilistic, model-based goal recognition to study the implications of the use of nominal models to estimate the posterior probability distribution over a finite set of hypothetical goals. Existing model-based approaches rely on expert knowledge to produce symbolic descriptions of the dynamic constraints domain objects are subject to, and these are assumed to produce correct predictions. We abandon this assumption to consider the use of nominal models that are learnt from observations on transitions of systems with unknown dynamics. Leveraging existing work on the acquisition of domain models via learning for Hybrid Planning we adapt and evaluate existing goal recognition approaches to analyze how prediction errors, inherent to system dynamics identification and model learning techniques have an impact over recognition error rates.

Abstract Modem inspection devices generate large quantites for error data for analysis. This paper describes a CAD based inspection analysis system that utilizes this data. Such a system is requires 1) the definition of error types, 2) the incorporation of tolerances into CAD definitions, 3) generation of errors between actual and nominal CAD geometry, 4) datuming of the geometries, 5) analysis of the errors and 6) display of those errors. The first 4 points are reviewed and a system for analysing and displaying the errors described. Such a system for aerofoil type geometry has been implemented within the CADDS4X CAD system and is described.

Abstract The control of each individual bend and overall process is presented in part 1 of the paper. In part 2 of the paper, statistical methods are used to analyze and improve 3-D tube bending accuracy. The relationship between bending process error and tube geometry error is obtained with Monte Carlo simulation. For the same tube tolerance requirement, the required process tolerance varies in a large range based on tube geometry. Among the three bending errors: bend angle, bend plane and distance between bends, bend angle error has the largest influence on tube error. For a tube with multiple bends, the overall tube geometry error can be minimized by intentionally modify the nominal values of the bends to be made based on the errors in the existing bends. The required modification of the bending commands is calculated with an adaptive bend correction algorithm.

The numerical integration of Foucault test data is simplified when readings are taken for the centers of contiguous zones of equal area. Height errors from the reference surface are shown to be proportional to the simple sump of knife-edge shifts from nominal settings. Change of reference curvature for minimum zonal error is effected by changing each shift by the same amount. Errors are exact to third-order for conic surfaces. The method is especially helpful when many tests must be made in the figuring process. Formulas are derived and an example is given, using both arithmetical and graphical error adjustment.

In this paper, we proposed an error decomposition method, in which some major error components can be experimentally estimated using an on-machine measurement (OMM) system. Unlike the conventional machining, the geometric error of a micro-tool, i.e., the deviation of the effective tool diameter from a nominal value, becomes a dominant factor affecting the machining accuracy. The error stems from both the tool fabrication error and the dynamic runout of the spindle system under high rpm. An on-machine measurement system based on a non-contact confocal laser sensor was developed that can accurately and efficiently acquire the effective tool diameter. To compensate the error due to the tool geometric error, the effective tool diameter was used to replace the nominal tool diameter to generate the tool path. The experimental results showed that the tool geometric error contributes over 50% to the total machining error. After compensation, the machining accuracy was significantly improved. The machine contour error has negligible influence on the dimension error of the machined feature, but it affects the form error, such as circularity of a machined hole. The process induced surface location errors were estimated from both experiments and model simulations, and good match was achieved.

Abstract Industrial robots are increasingly considered as a potential alternative especially for machining tasks while the poor positioning accuracy prevented it from broader application. Model-based compensation, which improves the accuracy of a nominal model by incorporating additional error parameters, is acknowledged as an effective and efficient solution. In such a compensation, the precision of the kinematic model’s predictions is crucial for achieving high accuracy robotic machining. Many researchers employed the conventional Denavit-Hartenberg (D-H) error model, which describes the kinematic errors by positional and orientational deviations of axis average lines. However, it has been noticed that the identification results of D-H errors could vary with the posture of downstream axes. Such phenomena cannot be properly captured by a set of static D-H error parameters. This research introduces a novel modelling scheme that contains posture-dependent D-H errors. Validation results demonstrate that the proposed posture-dependent model improves the positioning accuracy of the investigated robot with satisfactory performance, which reveals the posture-dependent properties of D-H errors.

The recent Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) method developed by U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Integrated Human Event Analysis System (IDHEAS), provides a well-grounded model to analyze human errors as well as a promising interface for generalizing and integrating human error data from various sources. Nevertheless, the task context and human performance in different domains, even in different applications within one domain, manifest quite different features which make it elusive to draw an inter-sector or inter-application comparison. In light of this contradiction, one question arises: Can HRA in distinct applications be cross-referenced to one another? Motivated by this, an interview study was conducted as a preliminary attempt to figure out the similarities and differences between two typical activities in the nuclear domain, i.e., maintenance and commissioning, with respect to two vital HRA elements, i.e., error modes and performance shaping factors (PSFs). A total of 21 engineers in a nuclear power plant were recruited to participate in the interview about salient error modes and PSFs in maintenance activities as well as a comparison with commissioning activities. Results show that the two activities share analogous error modes and PSFs on the whole, but vary in the patterns and distributions of each individual PSFs. Hence, results of the present study indicate that human errors in these two comparable activities could be characterized by a unified taxonomy, affording positive evidence for the thrown question. However, the discrepancy in the PSF patterns should never be neglected, which could lead to the divergency of nominal PSF levels and nominal human error probabilities.

A method called model reconciliation (MR) has previously been reported which modifies analytic rotordynamic models to make them match experimental data. An identified model derived from the experimental data and a nominal model from the engineering analysis are needed; an auxiliary dynamic system is then synthesized to modify the dynamics of the nominal model to match the identified model. The combination of the engineering model and the auxiliary dynamic system is the reconciled model. Due to numerous experimental uncertainties, the identified model may contain significant errors. These errors are then embedded by the reconciliation process so that the reconciled model is incorrect, and sometimes quite poor. A robust control synthesis method is presented here which accounts for model error bounds in generating the auxiliary dynamics to minimize their impact on the final model. To examine the validity of the process, extra data as a reference are used to compare with the data produced by the reconciled model. Both simulated data and experimental data are used to demonstrate the results of the method. The error model permits the synthesis to ignore spurious features of the identified model, thereby producing more reasonable results.

This project included seven, full-scale burst tests conducted on a single grade and size of pipe to evaluate a metal-loss defect assessment model developed under EWI Project No. 54922CSP, "Assessment of Corrosion Model Error for Metal Loss Defects in Pipelines" (PRCI Project EC-2-6). The goal of the modeling and full-scale test efforts was to minimize error and reduce the conservatism of Level-1 corrosion assessment models, with the eventual benefit of potentially reducing unwarranted maintenance efforts without increasing operator risk. Seven tests were performed on a recent vintage of API 5L X70M (L485M) grade pipe having an outside diameter of 24 in. (610 mm) and nominal wall thickness of 0.50 in. (12.7 mm). The seven test pipes contained machined flat-bottomed defects for which the Shape Factor is 1, to focus on the role of the planar defect size and its depth and avoid the complexities of river-bottom shaped defects that are beyond the current scope. Defect lengths ranged between 3 and le; L/(Dt)0.5 and le; 10, at bounding values of width taken at arc angles of 20 and 60 degrees, and depth at d/t of 30% and 80%. The simulated corrosion was centered in pups approximately 12 ft (~3.7 m) in length, which is sufficient to prevent any interaction between the end caps with the defects. The pipes were then end-capped and pressurized with water to failure. The actual failure pressures were evaluated relative to predictions based on the model developed in EC-2-7 coupled with the reference stress developed in PRCI Project EC-2-6.

We study the effect of macroeconomic announcements surprises on Colombian treasury bond spot rates in the medium term. For this, we employ a two-step regression approach proposed by Altavilla, Giannone and Modugno (2017), which takes into account the high frequency response to these surprises while filtering out the noise in the estimation of its medium to long term effect. We found that the share of variation of one day Colombian treasury bond spot rates changes explained by these surprises lies below 10%. Moreover, Colombian macroeconomic announcement surprises other than the nominal exchange rate depreciation do not seem to significantly affect spot rate changes, although important ones have big (but not significant) effect. Furthermore, the explanatory power of macroeconomic news surprises increases substantially at longer horizons, i.e. monthly and quarterly changes, reaching 34% for the latter. These results arise from the fact that spot rate changes show a delayed effect to shocks. This is mostly due to the features of the shocks contained in the error and the persistence of macroeconomic news surprises effect’s. Our results are robust to the appetite for risk of international investors measure employed in the model.

The present study experimentally investigates the effects of the relative stress amplitude and the relative nominal maximum stress on the fatigue life of Q460C steel fillet weld cruciform joints. An ellipsoidal fracture model proposed by the first author is used as the criterion of crack tip cracking and fatigue crack instability propagation. Theoretical calculations and numerical simulations were employed to analyze the fatigue crack initiation and propagation in the fillet weld cruciform joint. In addition, the fatigue crack initiation life, stable propagation life and total fatigue life were predicted using a unified fatigue life calculation model proposed by the first author. The calculation results reveal that the proposed unified fatigue life calculation model yield accurate fatigue life estimations, with errors ranging from −12.8% to −0.4%. Conversely, the calculation errors of the fatigue life formulas recommended in GB50017-2017, Eurocode3, and AISC360 range from −64.4% to −8.0%, −72.5% to −29.1%, and −49.4% to +30.7%, respectively.

In the second quarter, annual inflation (9.67%), the technical staff’s projections and its expectations continued to increase, remaining above the target. International cost shocks, accentuated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more persistent than projected, thus contributing to higher inflation. The effects of indexation, higher than estimated excess demand, a tighter labor market, inflation expectations that continue to rise and currently exceed 3%, and the exchange rate pressures add to those described above. High core inflation measures as well as in the producer price index (PPI) across all baskets confirm a significant spread in price increases. Compared to estimates presented in April, the new forecast trajectory for headline and core inflation increased. This was partly the result of greater exchange rate pressure on prices, and a larger output gap, which is expected to remain positive for the remainder of 2022 and which is estimated to close towards yearend 2023. In addition, these trends take into account higher inflation rate indexation, more persistent above-target inflation expectations, a quickening of domestic fuel price increases due to the correction of lags versus the parity price and higher international oil price forecasts. The forecast supposes a good domestic supply of perishable foods, although it also considers that international prices of processed foods will remain high. In terms of the goods sub-basket, the end of the national health emergency implies a reversal of the value-added tax (VAT) refund applied to health and personal hygiene products, resulting in increases in the prices of these goods. Alternatively, the monetary policy adjustment process and the moderation of external shocks would help inflation and its expectations to begin to decrease over time and resume their alignment with the target. Thus, the new projection suggests that inflation could remain high for the second half of 2022, closing at 9.7%. However, it would begin to fall during 2023, closing the year at 5.7%. These forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty, especially regarding the future behavior of external cost shocks, the degree of indexation of nominal contracts and decisions made regarding the domestic price of fuels. Economic activity continues to outperform expectations, and the technical staff’s growth projections for 2022 have been revised upwards from 5% to 6.9%. The new forecasts suggest higher output levels that would continue to exceed the economy’s productive capacity for the remainder of 2022. Economic growth during the first quarter was above that estimated in April, while economic activity indicators for the second quarter suggest that the GDP could be expected to remain high, potentially above that of the first quarter. Domestic demand is expected to maintain a positive dynamic, in particular, due to the household consumption quarterly growth, as suggested by vehicle registrations, retail sales, credit card purchases and consumer loan disbursement figures. A slowdown in the machinery and equipment imports from the levels observed in March contrasts with the positive performance of sales and housing construction licenses, which indicates an investment level similar to that registered for the first three months of the year. International trade data suggests the trade deficit would be reduced as a consequence of import levels that would be lesser than those observed in the first quarter, and stable export levels. For the remainder of the year and 2023, a deceleration in consumption is expected from the high levels seen during the first half of the year, partially as a result of lower repressed demand, tighter domestic financial conditions and household available income deterioration due to increased inflation. Investment is expected to continue its slow recovery while remaining below pre-pandemic levels. The trade deficit is expected to tighten due to projected lower domestic demand dynamics, and high prices of oil and other basic goods exported by the country. Given the above, economic growth in the second quarter of 2022 would be 11.5%, and for 2022 and 2023 an annual growth of 6.9% and 1.1% is expected, respectively. Currently, and for the remainder of 2022, the output gap would be positive and greater than that estimated in April, and prices would be affected by demand pressures. These projections continue to be affected by significant uncertainty associated with global political tensions, the expected adjustment of monetary policy in developed countries, external demand behavior, changes in country risk outlook, and the future developments in domestic fiscal policy, among others. The high inflation levels and respective expectations, which exceed the target of the world's main central banks, largely explain the observed and anticipated increase in their monetary policy interest rates. This environment has tempered the growth forecast for external demand. Disruptions in value chains, rising international food and energy prices, and expansionary monetary and fiscal policies have contributed to the rise in inflation and above-target expectations seen by several of Colombia’s main trading partners. These cost and price shocks, heightened by the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more prevalent than expected and have taken place within a set of output and employment recovery, variables that in some countries currently equal or exceed their projected long-term levels. In response, the U.S. Federal Reserve accelerated the pace of the benchmark interest rate increase and rapidly reduced liquidity levels in the money market. Financial market actors expect this behavior to continue and, consequently, significantly increase their expectations of the average path of the Fed's benchmark interest rate. In this setting, the U.S. dollar appreciated versus the peso in the second quarter and emerging market risk measures increased, a behavior that intensified for Colombia. Given the aforementioned, for the remainder of 2022 and 2023, the Bank's technical staff increased the forecast trajectory for the Fed's interest rate and reduced the country's external demand growth forecast. The projected oil price was revised upward over the forecast horizon, specifically due to greater supply restrictions and the interruption of hydrocarbon trade between the European Union and Russia. Global geopolitical tensions, a tightening of monetary policy in developed economies, the increase in risk perception for emerging markets and the macroeconomic imbalances in the country explain the increase in the projected trajectory of the risk premium, its trend level and the neutral real interest rate1. Uncertainty about external forecasts and their consequent impact on the country's macroeconomic scenario remains high, given the unpredictable evolution of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, geopolitical tensions, the degree of the global economic slowdown and the effect the response to recent outbreaks of the pandemic in some Asian countries may have on the world economy. This macroeconomic scenario that includes high inflation, inflation forecasts, and expectations above 3% and a positive output gap suggests the need for a contractionary monetary policy that mitigates the risk of the persistent unanchoring of inflation expectations. In contrast to the forecasts of the April report, the increase in the risk premium trend implies a higher neutral real interest rate and a greater prevailing monetary stimulus than previously estimated. For its part, domestic demand has been more dynamic, with a higher observed and expected output level that exceeds the economy’s productive capacity. The surprising accelerations in the headline and core inflation reflect stronger and more persistent external shocks, which, in combination with the strength of aggregate demand, indexation, higher inflation expectations and exchange rate pressures, explain the upward projected inflation trajectory at levels that exceed the target over the next two years. This is corroborated by the inflation expectations of economic analysts and those derived from the public debt market, which continued to climb and currently exceed 3%. All of the above increase the risk of unanchoring inflation expectations and could generate widespread indexation processes that may push inflation away from the target for longer. This new macroeconomic scenario suggests that the interest rate adjustment should continue towards a contractionary monetary policy landscape. 1.2. Monetary policy decision Banco de la República’s Board of Directors (BDBR), at its meetings in June and July 2022, decided to continue adjusting its monetary policy. At its June meeting, the BDBR decided to increase the monetary policy rate by 150 basis points (b.p.) and its July meeting by majority vote, on a 150 b.p. increase thereof at its July meeting. Consequently, the monetary policy interest rate currently stands at 9.0% . 1 The neutral real interest rate refers to the real interest rate level that is neither stimulative nor contractionary for aggregate demand and, therefore, does not generate pressures that lead to the close of the output gap. In a small, open economy like Colombia, this rate depends on the external neutral real interest rate, medium-term components of the country risk premium, and expected depreciation. Box 1: A Weekly Indicator of Economic Activity for Colombia Juan Pablo Cote Carlos Daniel Rojas Nicol Rodriguez Box 2: Common Inflationary Trends in Colombia Carlos D. Rojas-Martínez Nicolás Martínez-Cortés Franky Juliano Galeano-Ramírez Box 3: Shock Decomposition of 2021 Forecast Errors Nicolás Moreno Arias