Academic literature on the topic 'Event tourism'

In a knowledge-based economy, the most important issues of modernity areas development – event management become especially relevant. Current trends in the development of such socio-economic activity areas as event management is directly represented in the practice of event tourism, within which the creation, planning, conduction and event management. In order to manage a modern system of event tourism, event management is called to summarize the existing experience, give practical recommendations taking into account the specifics of various events, as well as improving this system of relations. Event management becomes an innovative tool for achieving the goals of the organization at its all operation stages. It is also worthily to note the importance of using event management technologies in the formation of a positive organization image, corporate culture and increase its competitiveness in the market. The article highlights the scientific approaches to the interpretation of the category "event management" according to certain criteria and characteristics. The author's definition of the categories essences "tourism industry" and "event management" is given. It is proved that event tourism is a fast-growing industry, which in recent years occupies a dominant position in the general classification of tourism. The potential of event management in the tourism industry is revealed. The system of organization and event-management carrying out in the world practice is investigated and recommendations concerning its application in Ukrainian realities are substantiated. The state of event management in Ukraine is analyzed and perspective directions of its development within the tourist business are outlined. The practical significance of the obtained results is manifested in their usefulness for optimizing the event managers’ work in the process of creating, planning, organizing and conducting events, as well as for improving and increasing the efficiency of existing technologies in the event organization field. In addition, they contribute to the clarification of "event management" concept in Ukrainian scientific community. Prospects for further research are to develop the basic processes of event management, which form its essence.

Tourism event data data in Gianyar regency must be managed well, so that it can giving knowledge to all event organizers about tourist interest of all tourism objects around Gianyar Regency. The knowledge also helping them for strategy determination and decision making. Each event organizer can manage their own tourism event data into the system and all of data can be processed to be information and report for the tourist, to make tourism service in Gianyar Regency better. This paper show the design, implementation, and testing of Tourism Event Management System using Gianyar Smart Tourism based on Cloud for all event organizers in Gianyar Regency, developed using Design Science Research Methodology (DSRM) and tested using User Accepted Testing (UAT). It also act as Knowledge Management about tourism event data and tourist demand. Conclusion, all tourism event can be managed well and all event organizers can manage their tourism event data easier.

The article discusses the significance of the events in the development of the tourism industry and in the formation of the image of the regions. It is noted that the regional tourism authorities in the search for new forms of PR-activity are beginning to use the possibility of the development of event tourism. The Belgorod region is no exception. Event tourism in the Belgorod region is in its infancy. The article highlights the most important events taking place in the territory of the Belgorod region. Despite the apparent activity in this area, a lot of the activities that take place in the regions of our country can hardly be attributed to the field of event tourism. For the most part, it this local events that do not have good policies to promote them, often missing factor of the cyclicity and regularity of their carrying out, not always takes place getting revenue and efficiency of their organization. A lot of events are not generating the tourist flow, because focused on the inhabitants of the territory, rather than tourists. In order to these activities moved into the category of event and would attract tourists to the region, it is necessary to consolidate the efforts of specialists in various spheres, including the sphere of public communication, culture, tourism, regional authorities to solution the urgent tasks of development of event tourism and creating a positive image of Russian regions. The result of this interaction must be not just the festival events but new event tourism products, which will create effect of immersion of tourists in the atmosphere of celebration and will be the points of tourist attraction. With the right approach to the organization of event tourism products successfully solves the problem of socio-cultural formation of the image of the region, not only domestically, but also abroad, and as a consequence, increases the tourist flow and the financial inflow of participants of the tourist market.

Event tourism occupies one of the leading places among other types of tourism. It provides the possibility to make a stable profit both to its organizers and to the countries where these events take place. It should be noted that any event requires appropriate conditions – tourism infrastructure, in which it will be implemented with the maximum positive result for all participants in the tourism sphere, which generally differs from other types of economic activity by an increased degree of risk due to seasonality, variability of demand from consumers of tourist products, etc. The state of uncertainty in the case of tourism infrastructure in general and on the example of event tourism in particular can be overcome by supplementing the existing types of classification of event tourism with new additional types, namely: «by frequency of conduct» (one-time and repeated); «by the venue» (permanent and transitional); «depending on the season» (dependent and independent). These additional types of classification will allow the authorities (several countries, a separate country, region, locality) that manage the entities of tourism activities – tourism and recreation centers, event organizers, producers of services and goods (including tourist goods), intermediaries represented by tour operators and travel agents to understand the amount of necessary transformations of the existing tourism infrastructure, subject to its existence or works on its creation. This, in turn, will help in the future to hold events that will bring profit and/or increase the image of tourism and recreation centers, will facilitate the development of other types of tourism through the use of already created or transformed tourism infrastructure, which is no less important than natural, historical, cultural and other anthropogenic recreational and tourism resources. As for potential consumers, the proposed additional types of classification of event tourism will increase the attractiveness of events due to their clearer differentiation according to the relevant signs.

This article will explore the sustainability of events and festivals on tourism activities held in Cirebon, Indonésia. The city, known as the ‘City of Guardians’, is very popular with religious tourism destinations that are branded for tourism products. Events and festivals that are held on an ongoing basis can become tourist attractions, used as a marketing place, and a strategy to create an image of the destination, thus attracting tourists' visits. The methodology used is the document review approach and trend analysis to observe and analyze the various events and festivals held from 2015 to 2019 and the shariah marketing mix that they apply. This article concludes that the shariah marketing mix in promoting events and festivals from various existing tourism segments, such as religious and traditional tourism, arts and cultural tourism, culinary tourism, nature tourism, and local economic tourism, has demonstrated a new concept for marketing tourism products, which emphasizes aspects of locality and uniqueness. So that this tourist destination is not only more potential and crowded by tourists, but also has shown the sustainability of the event and the festival itself.

Tourism events in South West Serbia are numerous and diverse regarding their origin, structure, genesis and other characteristics. This paper examines basic determinants of tourism events in South West Serbia, which is in compliance with the tendencies that tourism events should be qualitatively transformed and made highly adaptable and competitive as a part of tourism industry. The events in South West Serbia contribute to the creation of versatile tourist attractions and provide tourists with the opportunity to become more familiar with local community. It is often the case that an event, primarily designed for local population, eventually becomes very attractive for tourists.

Tourist events represent not only a significant tourism potential, but also the touristic product of Serbia. There are approximately 2500 events every year, attended by several million visitors from Serbia and all around the world. Since the 1990s in the world and since the beginning of the 21st century in Serbia, the organization and development of events has become a significantly profitable activity. Certain countries developed event tourism strategies on the level of the country or on the regional level; in Serbia, the event tourism is mentioned in the national tourism development strategies and certain regional ones. This paper targets the need for development of Event Tourism Strategy on the level of Serbia.

Туристично-рекреаційна галузь у багатьох країнах переживає період стрімкого розвитку в умовах незадоволеного попиту, динамічної перебудови власної структури і функцій у відповідності до процесу диверсифікації рекреаційних потреб. Формування ринкового середовища в національній економіці України створює об'єктивні передумови для динамічного розвитку різних видів туристичної діяльності у її регіонах, зокрема подієвого туризму. Цей вид туризму має важливе значення у транскордонному співробітництві, адже він сприяє формуванню позитивного образу (іміджу) держави.
Туристско-рекреационная отрасль во многих странах переживает период стремительного развития в условиях неудовлетворенного спроса, динамической перестройки собственной структуры и функций в соответствии с процессом диверсификации рекреационных потребностей. Формирование рыночной среды в национальной экономике Украины создает объективные предпосылки для динамичного развития различных видов туристической деятельности в ее регионах, в частности событийного туризма. Этот вид туризма имеет важное значение в трансграничном сотрудничестве, ведь он способствует формированию положительного образа (имиджа) государства.
The tourist and recreational industry in many countries is experiencing a period of rapid development in the face of unmet demand, the dynamic restructuring of its own structure and functions in accordance with the diversification of recreational needs. The formation of a market environment in the national economy of Ukraine creates objective prerequisites for the dynamic development of various types of tourism activities in its regions, in particular the event tourism. This kind of tourism is important for cross-border cooperation, because it promotes the formation of a positive image of the state.

The tourism industry is one of the fastest growing industries in the world. Destinationcompetitiveness emphasizes the need to link competitiveness to a destination's ability to delivergoods and services better than other destinations on those parts of the tourism experience regardedas being important by tourists. The phenomenon of using events to strategically build andstrengthen a destination's brand identity has received very little attention. This study aims to investigate how the Destination Management Organisations in Helsinki arebuilding a brand identity, and how events may be used strategically in this process. Interviews havebeen undertaken with few organisations of various sizes and characteristics. Two distinct divisionsformed the base of the thesis; the first with a clear focus on how the DMO is working to create abrand identity, while the latter concentrated on the same topic from a focused perspective; how thebrand identity may be created with the use of events. After this, the research phase is entered, whichinvolves gathering the necessary data required for determining the current identity of thedestination. Once the research phase was completed, the process moved into a phase of shaping thebrand identity. Through the interviews the writer was able to get better perceptions of how the cityis merged with views and objectives of where the city wants to be, or where they desire to be in the future.

Using qualitative multiple-case study research, this thesis advances understanding of event stakeholders’ salience, interests and influence strategies in event tourism settings. The findings suggest that stakeholder salience varies due to different types of stakeholder power and legitimacy, and event implementation priority, subject to individual managers’ perceptions. The study also found that managers prioritise stakeholders according to the event life-cycle – from planning and implementation, through staging to conclusion, as opposed to responding to stakeholders’ urgent claims.

This research examines the impact of inter-organisational relationships of public sector events agencies on events tourism strategy making within Australian state/territories. The global expansion of events tourism and sustained interest in networks and relationships as conduits to strategy underpin this topic. Although public sector institutional arrangements exist in many countries including Australia to develop events tourism, there is no known empirical research of inter-organisational relationships for strategy making in this domain. Against this background, the research problem of the thesis is: How and why do inter-organisational relationships of public sector events agencies impact upon events tourism strategy making within Australian states and territories? Based on a review of themes and issues within the two parent theories of tourism strategy and inter-organisational relationships, a theoretical framework and four research issues are developed. These issues are: RI 1: How does the public sector institutional environment impact upon events tourism strategies and the inter-organisational relationships that shape them, and why? RI 2: How do events tourism strategy forms and processes reflect and influence events agencies' inter-organisational relationships, and why? RI 3: What are the forms and characteristics of events agencies' inter- organisational relationships for shaping events tourism strategies, and why? RI 4: What are the incentives and disincentives for events agencies to engage in inter-organisational relationships for events tourism strategy making, and why? Because this research explores a new field within events tourism, it adopts a realism paradigm to uncover the 'realities' of events agencies' inter-organisational relationships and strategies. Two qualitative methodologies are adopted: the convergent interview technique (Carson, Gilmore, Perry, and Gronhaug 2001b; Dick 1990) and multiple case research (Perry 1998, 2001; Yin 1994). The convergent interviews serve to explore and refine the theoretical framework and the four research issues investigated in the multiple case research. These cases are represented by the inter-organisational relationships of events agencies in six Australian states/territories. Findings about the public sector institutional environment (research issue 1) show that events tourism strategies are influenced by different public sector policies and influences, the organisational arrangements for events tourism, the roles of events agencies and the lifecycle phase of events tourism in each state/territory. In relation to events tourism strategy forms (research issue 2), reactive/proactive strategies that respond to or address arising events or opportunities are common with a limited application of formal planning strategies. However, events agencies' strategy processes do reflect a range of strategic activities of importance. Inter-organisational relationships of events agencies (research issue 3) are typified by informal, government-led networks that influence, rather than develop, events tourism strategies. Finally, the importance of a number of incentives and disincentives for agencies to engage in inter-organisational relationships for events tourism strategy making is established. The final conceptual model depicts the themes within all four research issues and links between them to address the research problem. The conclusions of this research make a major contribution to events tourism theory and build upon theories in tourism strategy and inter-organisational relationships. Further research opportunities are presented by these conclusions and the conceptual model which may be explored using other methodologies or alternative research contexts. Practical implications of the research for policy makers and agency executives relate to policy-strategy linkages, public sector organisational arrangements for events tourism, strategy forms and processes and frameworks to engage stakeholders in inter-organisational relationships for strategy making. Knowledge of incentives and disincentives for these inter-organisational relationships also provides a platform for events agencies to reflect upon and revise their modes of governance for events tourism strategy making.

The papers submitted for this PhD by publication represent research centered on event experiences and their design, management and impact. They are the result of research projects that have produced seven published peer-reviewed papers and one book. The body of work has made an original, significant and sustained contribution towards the development of an emerging field of study in events. The work has made a major contribution towards furthering understanding of the human experience that results from the management of events, their design and their impact. At the heart of this submission is a consideration for how events are experienced and what factors and components contribute to the depth of that experience. The majority of papers analyses and reflects upon the construction of experience settings (their design) and essentially seeks knowledge to identify the variables that shape any experience of events (Ryan, 2012). In doing so the research undertaken has embraced a less restrictive set of methodologies usually afforded by statistical exercises in favour of a more embodied, immersive and participative approach. This has included not only observation and autoethnography, but also reflection on that which has been observed. In turn this reflection and analysis has drawn upon a range of theories and models to advance understanding of the social occasions that we call events where human interactions with the designed programme and environment illicit a range of responses that may culminate in a memorable and unique moment in time. The research therefore touches upon the emotional response to event experiences, the study and interpretation of the meaning of events, and notably their signification to an intended audience. In the course of this research I have evaluated and reflected upon the study and practice of event management across a range of event types and genres. Seeking to initially clarify the role of design in creating event experience led me to questioning the paradigmatic model for event management and resulted in the development of an alternative consideration for event planning and management - Event Experience Design Framework (EEDF). Unlike existing models this places design as the central and pivotal driving force that inhabits all areas of the event management process and upon which all events should then be based. The contribution of this body of work can therefore be summarised as follows: 1. Development of a paradigmatic concept that places design as the central and essential practice that underpins the planned event experience. 2. Theoretical positioning of how designing event experiences impacts on stakeholders 3. Recognition and application of theoretical models and tools relevant to event design and creativity, and further use of conceptual models to analyse experiential outcomes 4. Identification and awareness of the broader socio-cultural impact of planned events This submission provides evidentiary material that I have made a positive and meaningful contribution to raising the profile of events through research, teaching and learning by an acknowledged excellence in events management education and as a recognised (and first) National Teaching Fellow in Events. Furthermore, the submission provides a reflection on this research and development that has enabled me to make such a pivotal contribution to the field. It concludes with an outline of plans for the future.

The aim of the study was to examine what the economic and touristic impacts of the sports event - UEFA EURO 2012 - will have on Polish regions. The essay was limited to some specific regions in Poland. Those regions were Gniewino, Malbork, Kalisz, Legionowo, Pommerian Province, Cracow, Olsztyn and Zamosc. The Football Championships that will be held in 2012 are dependent of the big amount of football fans that will came and spend their money in Polish regions. Thanks to the increased consumption this creates demand for local services and products. The generator of spending is the tourism multiplier that is the main link to the touristic expenditure.The multiplier is a catalyst of the region that creates jobs, growing yield, promotion of the region and improvement of its infrastructure and leisure facilities. This is considered as an advantage from an economical and touristic point of view. The economical and tourstic benefits are different for every mentioned region in the study because of their location and link to the UEFA EURO 2012. This study shows only how the different eight regions prepare for the UEFA EURO 2012 and what they think that the negative and positive economical and touristic impacts will gain them. The study gives only a short brief of the football event of what can happen.

The primary goal of the study was to identify key success factors for the management of wedding tourism in South Africa. This goal was achieved by firstly conducting a literature study to determine the key success factors of strategic management for special events as stated in books, articles and other sources. Secondly, wedding tourism was analysed to provide an overview of the wedding tourism industry and weddings as tourism products. Thirdly, the results of the empirical research were discussed followed by the conclusions and recommendations made with regard to further research. From the literature study, aspects regarding strategic management were discussed namely, the strategic management process, marketing for special events, human resource management, financial management and operational management. These aspects were included in the questionnaires for the empirical research. Two different questionnaires were developed, one for wedding planners and one for owners/managers of wedding venues in the Gauteng and North West provinces. The purpose of the questionnaires was to gather information on the key success factors for wedding tourism and to gain insight of the wedding tourism industry. Personal interviews were held with wedding planners and owners1 managers of wedding venues; questionnaires were also distributed via email. All the data was processed by the North-West University's Statistical Consultation Services. A confirmatory factor analysis was done to produce a small amount of factors. The following factors were identified: strategic planning; SWOT analysis, human resources, financial management, market segmentation, promotion and operational management. After analysing the data it was clear that operational services like ensuring high levels of hygiene, having a liquor license, accessibility, secure parking and that services must meet the needs of guests were considered extremely important aspects for a wedding venue. The following aspects were considered extremely important by wedding planners: services must meet the needs of guests, offer unique products and develop a checklist as control mechanism. Owners of wedding tourism products and wedding planners have to consider and apply the key success factors in order to grow the industry and create sustainable products.
Thesis (M.Com. (Tourism))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2007.

Many destinations throughout the world have developed events portfolios as a strategic initiative to attract tourists and their associated economic benefits. The ability of events to attract people to a destination for the purpose of attending the event is well documented. However the ability of an event to add value to attract tourists before or after the event is not so clear. In other words, can an events portfolio positively influence the decision to visit a destination at a time when none of the promoted events are scheduled? As a first step towards answering this important question, this study explores the contribution of an events portfolio to a consumer’s perceptions of a destination and how this influences their decision to attend a destination under these circumstances. The proposed study conducts a protocol analysis based on consumer’s decision-making thoughts. Each participant was given a choice between two destinations in India. Participants were asked to ‘think out loud’ as they made the decision to visit one of two possible destinations, one with an events portfolio and the other without. However, their visit does not coincide with the events’ dates. The results suggest four lines of reasoning utilised by prospective tourists in the destination choice process: 1) destination image; 2) the timing of the event with respect the time of visit; 3) tourists’ level of interest in the event; and, 4) events not listed in the events portfolio might be scheduled during the time of the proposed visit. In course of finding lines of reasoning for cross-cultural issues it was found that culture, architecture, English language usage, and food are the major aspects that tourists consider while travelling to Indian destinations. In terms of the events portfolio, there is evidence of a preference for a ‘fit’ between the event and Indian culture.

For the event organiser, Sabah is one of the states that becomes a focal point. As Sabah is one of the most popular tourist destinations, several large events such as the Sabah Jazz Festival, Pesta Lepa-lepa, Pesta Kaamatan, Pesta Kalimaran, and other festivals have been held. However, COVID 19’s disruptive impacts have had such a significant impact on the event sector. Most of the events are getting cancelled or postponed all over the world. Over the past several months, a significant number of meetings and conferences have been redesigned as virtual events. However, the event industry needs to know the readiness of the public towards the shifting from the physical to the digital. Therefore, the objective of this research is to determine the event audience readiness for digital events. It is important for the event industry to know the readiness and a good online platform in providing a good service to their audience. A quantitative method was used to conduct this study. The main finding will see how far our communities is ready to adapt the new norm. Based on the finding it shows that event audience are willing to adopt the event digitisation, and this is due to the impact of the COVID 19pandemic which was accelerating changes in event audience behaviour. This research will benefit the event organisers and help them prepare strategic plana to cater to the audience needs.

The current report is with practical-applied character. Its aim is to represent some tools used by developed international hoteliers and their partners that ease the contact between specific types organized segments on the tourist market as well as to show up their contribution to the successful and reliable work process. After the digital path to individual hotel guests has already become pretty explored issue, it's time the communication process between hoteliers and organized markets to be researched and analyzed.

Tourism is important for the economy of our country and the tourist attractiveness of the cities of the Russian Federation is quite high. Combining history and tourism, several types of tourism (cultural and educational, industrial, event) can serve as a great impetus for the formation of new thematic routes and an interesting excursion program for tourists of different ages. In this article, the author of the work has formed a thematic material for the 60th anniversary of the flight of the first man into space and shows the importance of Russian cities through the prism of cosmonauts who made the first attempts to conquer outer space. This material can serve as a basis for the development of thematic brochures.

Pivot is a movement of radical ideas for the Caribbean of the future. In 2020, the IDB and its partners (Caribbean Climate Smart-Accelerator (CCSA), Destination Experience (DE), and Singularity University) launched The Pivot Movement and asked the people of the Caribbean to think of big ideas to transform the region. A small group came together at The Pivot Event to design 9 moonshots for electric vehicles, digital transformation and tourism. Pivot: The Future Makers is a comic book produced by the Pivot partners and illustrated by Caribbean artists. In it, the 9 moonshots have been developed into fictional stories as a simple and powerful means of conveying possible, probable futures, to help us visualize the Caribbean in 2040.

The objective of this report is to present an actionable programme to bring initial moonshot ideas into fully accomplishable projects, ready to be deployed. It comprises three parts. The first part, namely Section 2, provides a background and development avenues for three broad domains of Caribbean economies, namely electric vehicles, digital transformation, and tourism. The second part breaks down the realisation of moonshot ideas into steps using a comprehensive roadmap, which lays out, in sequential point-by-point form, how to steer the coherent long-term deployment of moonshot ideas into concrete actionable projects. Sections 3.1 (From Dreams to Deployment) and 3.2 (Overview of Sequential Tasks by Stakeholder Category) present this in detail. Finally, in the third part, Sections 3.3 and 3.4 define and illustrate the roadmap of moonshot ideas identified during the PIVOT Event. In elaborating these two sections, key emphasis was put on the tasks to be conducted during the preparedness phase (Phase 2 of the roadmap). The conclusion summarizes all dimensions of the roadmap into three illustrations, one for each domain, depicting all nine moonshots from the PIVOT Event.

Cash is still widely used in Colombia, even among merchants that accept payment cards. Indeed, 60% of these merchants use dissuasive strategies to make their clients pay with cash. This shows that merchant service costs (MSC) for cards are not optimal in the sense of the Tourist Test. We present estimates of MSC compatible with the Tourist Test, such that merchants are indifferent between being paid with cash or cards. We find that cash is less costly than cards at the average retail-sales transaction-value, hence there is no positive optimal MSC at this ticket value. For the average card transaction ticket, the optimal MSC would be positive but far below the rates charge by the industry (0.74% in a short-term scenario). Yet, the additional incentive that sales-tax evasion provides to cash payments reduces the Tourist Test MSC to 0.44%. Our estimates for long-term scenarios yield even lower optimal MSC. An average price cap regulation that strikes a middle ground between these figures, and is complemented with sales-tax evasion measures, should discourage merchant strategies that deter consumers from paying with cards and will accommodate the wide heterogeneity in merchants´ scale, payment processing processes and ticket size. These results should be taken as a guideline as the estimations depend on the underlying assumptions and only consider the merchant´s side of the card industry.

Coffs Harbour on the north coast of NSW is a highway city sandwiched between the Great Dividing Range and the Pacific Ocean. For thousands of years it was the traditional land of the numerous Gumbaynggirr peoples. Tourism now appears to be the major industry, supplanting agriculture and timber getting, while a large service sector has grown up around a sizable retirement community. It is major holiday destination. Located further away from the coast in the midst of a dairy farming community, Bellingen has become a centre of alternative culture which relies heavily on a variety of festivals activated by energetic tree changers and numerous professionals who have relocated from Sydney. Both communities rely on the visitor economy and there have been considerable changes to how local government in this region approach strategic planning for arts and culture. The newly built Coffs Harbour Education Campus (CHEC) is an experiment in encouraging cross pollination between innovative businesses and education and incorporates TAFE NSW, Coffs Harbour Senior College and Southern Cross University as well as the Coffs Harbour Technology Park and Coffs Harbour Innovation Centre all on one site. The 250 seat Jetty Memorial Theatre is the main theatre in Coffs Harbour for local and touring productions while local halls and converted theatres are the mainstay of smaller communities in the region. As peak body Arts Mid North Coast reports, there is a good record of successful arts related events which range across all genres of music, art, sculpture, Aboriginal culture, street art, literature and even busking and opera. These are mainly managed by passionate local volunteers.

Located a two-and-a-half hour drive south of Perth, Busselton is one of the largest and fastest growing regional centres in WA, a lifestyle services hub and the gateway to the internationally renowned wine region and popular tourist destination of Margaret River. Promoted by the City of Busselton council as the ‘Events Capital of WA’, Busselton has a strong festival and events economy that fuels local creative and arts production, supported by demographic shifts and population growth that is resulting in more creatives living and working in the city.

For more than a year, the Caribbean economics team at the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) has focused on the potential implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for lives and livelihoods across the region. The pandemic is still with us, but there is hope that the cycles of lockdowns and containment measures will eventually come to an end as vaccination programs progress, even if unevenly, across the region. However, the availability of vaccine supply remains a concern, and the pandemic continues to pose a constraint for the recovery of key sectors such as tourism and local services sectors. This edition of the Caribbean Quarterly Bulletin focuses on two topics: (1) forecasts of key macroeconomic variables, based on the April 2021 WEO, and (2) financial sector risks. In general, regional economies are embarking on a fragile path to recovery. Continued progress with vaccination programs, credible medium-term fiscal programs, and continued attention to financial vulnerabilities will be needed to push that path to recovery forward.

Augmented reality is one of the most modern information visualization technologies. Number of scientific studies on different aspects of augmented reality technology development and application is analyzed in the research. Practical examples of augmented reality technologies for various industries are described. Very often augmented reality technologies are used for: social interaction (communication, entertainment and games); education; tourism; areas of purchase/sale and presentation. There are various scientific and mass events in Ukraine, as well as specialized training to promote augmented reality technologies. There are following results of the research: main benefits that educational institutions would receive from introduction of augmented reality technology are highlighted; it is determined that application of augmented reality technologies in education would contribute to these technologies development and therefore need increase for specialists in the augmented reality; growth of students' professional level due to application of augmented reality technologies is proved; adaptation features of augmented reality technologies in learning disciplines for students of different educational institutions are outlined; it is advisable to apply integrated approach in the process of preparing future professionals of new technological era; application of augmented reality technologies increases motivation to learn, increases level of information assimilation due to the variety and interactivity of its visual representation. Main difficulties of application of augmented reality technologies are financial, professional and methodical. Following factors are necessary for introduction of augmented reality technologies: state support for such projects and state procurement for development of augmented reality technologies; conduction of scientific research and experimental confirmation of effectiveness and pedagogical expediency of augmented reality technologies application for training of specialists of different specialties; systematic conduction of number of national and international events on dissemination and application of augmented reality technology. It is confirmed that application of augmented reality technologies is appropriate for training of future specialists of new technological era.

Theodore Roosevelt National Park (THRO) in western North Dakota was established for its historical connections with President Theodore Roosevelt. It contains not only historical and cultural resources, but abundant natural resources as well. Among these is one of the best geological and paleontological records of the Paleocene Epoch (66 to 56 million years ago) of any park in the National Park System. The Paleocene Epoch is of great scientific interest due to the great mass extinction that occurred at its opening (the Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event), and the unusual climatic event that began at the end of the epoch (the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum, an anomalous global temperature spike). It is during the Paleocene that mammals began to diversify and move into the large-bodied niches vacated by dinosaurs. The rocks exposed at THRO preserve the latter part of the Paleocene, when mammals were proliferating and crocodiles were the largest predators. Western North Dakota was warmer and wetter with swampy forests; today these are preserved as the “petrified forests” that are one of THRO’s notable features. Despite abundant fossil resources, THRO has not historically been a scene of significant paleontological exploration. For example, the fossil forests have only had one published scientific description, and that report focused on the associated paleosols (“fossil soils”). The widespread petrified wood of the area has been known since at least the 19th century and was considered significant enough to be a tourist draw in the decades leading up to the establishment of THRO in 1947. Paleontologists occasionally collected and described fossil specimens from the park over the next few decades, but the true extent of paleontological resources was not realized until a joint North Dakota Geological Survey–NPS investigation under John Hoganson and Johnathan Campbell between 1994–1996. This survey uncovered 400 paleontological localities within the park representing a variety of plant, invertebrate, vertebrate, and trace fossils. Limited investigation and occasional collection of noteworthy specimens took place over the next two decades. In 2020, a new two-year initiative to further document the park’s paleontological resources began. This inventory, which was the basis for this report, identified another 158 fossil localities, some yielding taxa not recorded by the previous survey. Additional specimens were collected from the surface, among them a partial skeleton of a choristodere (an extinct aquatic reptile), dental material of two mammal taxa not previously recorded at THRO, and the first bird track found at the park. The inventory also provided an assessment of an area scheduled for ground-disturbing maintenance. This inventory is intended to inform future paleontological resource research, management, protection, and interpretation at THRO. THRO’s bedrock geology is dominated by two Paleocene rock formations: the Bullion Creek Formation and the overlying Sentinel Butte Formation of the Fort Union Group. Weathering of these formations has produced the distinctive banded badlands seen in THRO today. These two formations were deposited under very different conditions than the current conditions of western North Dakota. In the Paleocene, the region was warm and wet, with a landscape dominated by swamps, lakes, and rivers. Great forests now represented by petrified wood grew throughout the area. Freshwater mollusks, fish, amphibians (including giant salamanders), turtles, choristoderes, and crocodilians abounded in the ancient wetlands, while a variety of mammals representing either extinct lineages or the early forebearers of modern groups inhabited the land. There is little representation of the next 56 million years at THRO. The only evidence we have of events in the park for most of these millions of years is isolated Neogene lag deposits and terrace gravel. Quaternary surficial deposits have yielded a few fossils...

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

This report presents a probabilistic disaster risk assessment model for Barbados, focusing on beach erosions caused by episodic cyclonic hazard events and chronic effects associated with maritime climate. The probabilistic risk is expressed in terms of direct and indirect economic losses due to expected repair costs and downtimes, and income losses due to declines in tourism visitation and touristic usage in affected beach areas. The Comprehensive Approach for Probabilistic Risk Assessment (CAPRA) was used as a methodological model for conducting this study.