Academic literature on the topic 'Exchange rate limit'

The isotope exchange reactions between 18OH and NO, NO2, N2O and O2 were studied at room temperature in a discharge flow system with laser magnetic resonance detection of 18OH and 16OH. Exchange rate constants of where obtained for NO and NO2, respectively. Upper limits of k < 1 · 108 cm3/mol s can be reported for the reactionsThe results are compared with recombination rate data in the limit of high pressures and with vibrational deactivation measurements.

Let Λ be a connected closed region with smooth boundary contained in the d-dimensional continuous torus T d . In the discrete torus N -1 T d N , we consider a nearest-neighbor symmetric exclusion process where occupancies of neighboring sites are exchanged at rates depending on Λ in the following way: if both sites are in Λ or Λc, the exchange rate is 1; if one site is in Λ and the other site is in Λc, and the direction of the bond connecting the sites is e j , then the exchange rate is defined as N -1 times the absolute value of the inner product between e j and the normal exterior vector to ∂Λ. We show that this exclusion-type process has a nontrivial hydrodynamical behavior under diffusive scaling and, in the continuum limit, particles are not blocked or reflected by ∂Λ. Thus, the model represents a system of particles under hard-core interaction in the presence of a permeable membrane which slows down the passage of particles between two complementary regions.

Let Λ be a connected closed region with smooth boundary contained in the d-dimensional continuous torus Td. In the discrete torus N-1TdN, we consider a nearest-neighbor symmetric exclusion process where occupancies of neighboring sites are exchanged at rates depending on Λ in the following way: if both sites are in Λ or Λc, the exchange rate is 1; if one site is in Λ and the other site is in Λc, and the direction of the bond connecting the sites is ej, then the exchange rate is defined as N-1 times the absolute value of the inner product between ej and the normal exterior vector to ∂Λ. We show that this exclusion-type process has a nontrivial hydrodynamical behavior under diffusive scaling and, in the continuum limit, particles are not blocked or reflected by ∂Λ. Thus, the model represents a system of particles under hard-core interaction in the presence of a permeable membrane which slows down the passage of particles between two complementary regions.

Monetary authorities of many open economies have been regularly intervening in foreign exchange markets for years to limit volatility in exchange rates and/or push exchange rates back to some desired level. Such interventions have taken the form of actual and oral official interventions. Review of studies investigating the effectiveness of interventions reveals one major issue, related to the assumption that interventions are mostly sterilized. This assumption might lead to unreliable results when changes in interest rates and interventions are both used as explanatory variables for exchange rates. One major consistent finding is that intervention has a significant but short-lasting effect on exchange rates. Studies have reached this conclusion by investigating whether intervention has been effective in turning around the exchange rate over the few days, weeks or months following intervention(s). Only a few studies have investigated and provided evidence that intervention has been effective in limiting long swings in exchange rates. Studies testing for the effectiveness of interventions specifically through the signaling channel also provide evidence on the importance of macroeconomic variables for exchange rates. The significance of official intervention and official communication for exchange rate movements combined with the importance of macroeconomic variables for exchange rates provide a role for official intervention and parity announcement to influence exchange rate movements and limit the magnitude of exchange rate swings.

This paper estimates the equilibrium real effective exchange rate and determine the level of exchange rate misalignment in Sierra Leone, for the period 1980 to 2018. The paper utilizes the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate methodology within the Johansen maximum likelihood framework to estimate the long run equilibrium real effective exchange rate. The unit root test result shows that all the variables are integrated of order one, whilst the cointegration test establishes the existence of one cointegrating vector as evidenced by both the Trace and Maximum Eigen Statistics. The normalized long run results reveal that openness, government expenditure and money supply were the most significant determinants of the real effective exchange rate in the long run. Furthermore, the findings reveal that the real effective exchange rate experienced sustained deviation from the long run equilibrium real effective exchange rate during the study period, with episodes of overvaluation and undervaluation. Specifically, the real effective exchange rate was overvalued by 3.69 percent during the period between 1980-1985; undervalued by 1.8 percent between 1986-1997, and overvalued by 0.9 percent between 1998-2004, Thus, the paper reveals episodes of misalignment of the real effective exchange rate. Based on these findings, the study recommends that, the monetary authorities should ensure stability of the exchange rate and maintain price stability, through sterilization of capital flows as well as contain money growth within the statutory limit.

This study confirmed whether the rate of derivatives in leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETF) calculated by derivatives and net asset value (NAV) affect their tracking errors. This research established three findings. First, when the rate of derivatives was limited at 100%, the tracking error of the leveraged ETF targeted on 2 times of the index was affected by the rate of derivatives. Second, when the rate of derivatives was eased to 200%, the same-day tracking error of the leveraged ETF targeted on 2 times of the futures index that launched after the constraints was affected by the rate of derivatives. Third, this study analyzed the constraints of the rate of derivatives after determining whether the leveraged ETF targeted on 2 times of the index indicates whether the rate of derivatives is close to 200%. As a result, even when the rate of derivatives is slightly over the 200% limit, the tracking error was lower. Even when the constraints were slightly over the limit, the tracking error was shown to be significantly lower than the other data set. This result implies that when there is an institutional constraint on the rate of derivatives, there can be limitations to fund management of leveraged ETF targeted on 2 times of the futures index.

The paper empirically examines whether the international rating influences the rate of exchange of an economy in the long run? The paper employs Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds testing methodology on the exchange rate of China and contemporary international rating, using time series data from 1996Q1 to 2016Q4. The empirical analysis confirms the presence of a cointegration relationship between country rating and the exchange rate. To be more specific; corruption index, credit rating, and inflation are significantly and negatively cointegrated with the exchange rate of China. Conversely, consumer confidence is uncorrelated with the exchange rate over the long run. The paper focuses only on the exchange rate of CNY-USD; this may limit the generalizability of results for exchange rate with other nations. Nevertheless, the results add to the exchange rate determinants literature by including country-rating indicators in the analysis. Prior literature documents that there is some relationship between inflation and exchange rate. This research is novel in the application of robust ARDL and bounds testing to examine the long and short-run association of country rating of China with its exchange rate, after controlling for inflation.

Abstract. Ocean warming is now reducing dissolved oxygen concentrations, which can pose challenges to marine life. Oxygen limits are traditionally reported simply as a static concentration threshold with no temperature, pressure or flow rate dependency. Here we treat the oceanic oxygen supply potential for heterotrophic consumption as a dynamic molecular exchange problem analogous to familiar gas exchange processes at the sea surface. A combination of the purely physico-chemical oceanic properties temperature, hydrostatic pressure, and oxygen concentration defines the ability of the ocean to provide the oxygen supply to the external surface of a respiratory membrane. This general oceanic oxygen supply potential is modulated by further properties such as the diffusive boundary layer thickness to define an upper limit to oxygen supply rates. While the true maximal oxygen uptake rate of any organism is limited by gas transport either across the respiratory interface of the organism itself or across the diffusive boundary layer around an organism, controlled by physico-chemical oceanic properties, it can never be larger than the latter. Here, we define and calculate quantities that describe this upper limit to oxygen uptake posed by physico-chemical properties around an organism and show examples of their oceanic profiles.

The subject of this paper is empirical research on studies of exchange rates in Eastern European countries, such as Albania, Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Belarus, Czech Republic, Estonia, Croatia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, (North) Macedonia, Montenegro, Poland, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia, and Slovenia, in order verify the validity of theories that explain these changes. This research aims to explain the mixed evidence of the Balassa-Samuelson effect in Ukraine, taking into account the intentions of Ukraine to become a member of the European Union. Unlike previous works, the attention is shifted to a review of empirical evidence and the identification of main factors that limit the ability to verify the theory. The main conclusion is that all the currencies studied underwent substantial real appreciations during the study period. Thus, it can be concluded that an adequate monetary policy in countries under study is very important, given that local exchange markets are not sustainable enough and the volatility of exchange operations is higher than in countries with developed economies. However, the Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis (BSH) can explain the impact of the real exchange rate due to changes in productivity in countries in transition.

The diploma thesis deals with the analysis of the most significant phases of the monetary policy of the Czech National Bank, including the analysis and evaluation of its effectiveness from its origin to the present. The thesis is divided into three individual parts. Each part corresponds to a specific transmission mechanism applied by the Czech National Bank while implementing the monetary policy. Each chapter includes the assessment of the effectiveness of individual approaches and the analysis of the impact of the monetary policy as well as the decision of the Czech National Bank on the Czech economy. The very first chapter is focused on the application of the monetary transmission mechanism in conditions of the fixed exchange rate during which an increasing internal as well as external disequilibrium led to the monetary crisis. The second chapter is dedicated to the transition to the inflation targeting, expert discussion concerning its implementation and the evaluation of the achieved results. The last chapter presents the use of the CNB's additional instrument of the monetary policy in the form of the exchange rate including the reasons that led to this step. The closing part of this chapter focuses on the evaluation of the effectiveness of this policy.

Masters of Commerce
If share price fluctuations follow a simple random walk then it implies that forecasting models based on historical growth rates have little ability to forecast acceptable share price movements over a certain period. The simple random walk description of share price dynamics is obtained when a large number of investors have equal probability to buy or sell based on their own opinion. This simple random walk description of the stock market is in essence the Efficient Market Hypothesis, EMT. EMT is the central concept around which financial modelling is based which includes the Black-Scholes model and other important theoretical underpinnings of capital market theory like mean-variance portfolio selection, arbitrage pricing theory (APT), security market line and capital asset pricing model (CAPM). These theories, which postulates that risk can be reduced to zero sets the foundation for option pricing and is a key component in financial software packages used for pricing and forecasting in the financial industry. The model used by Black and Scholes and other models mentioned above are Gaussian, i.e. they exhibit a random nature. This Gaussian property and the existence of expected returns and continuous time paths (also Gaussian properties) allow the use of stochastic calculus to solve complex Black- Scholes models. However, if the markets are not Gaussian then the idea that risk can be. (educed to zero can lead to a misleading and potentially disastrous sense of security on the financial markets. This study project test the null hypothesis - share prices on the JSE follow a random walk - by means of graphical techniques such as symmetry plots and Quantile-Quantile plots to analyse the test distributions. In both graphical techniques evidence for the rejection of normality was found. Evidenceleading to the rejection of the hypothesis was also found through nonparametric or distribution free methods at a 1% level of significance for Anderson-Darling and Runs test.

Biomass energy is currently the largest renewable contributor to global energy supply and there is increasing demand for bioenergy feedstock. Consequently, the production of purpose-grown woody bioenergy crops, such as short rotation coppice (SRC) willow, is expected to proliferate. Although the economic and environmental benefits associated with SRC willow production are well documented, systematic assessments of nutrient cycling within these plantations are rare. The objective of this study was to examine biomass production and biogeochemical cycling of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium (K), sulphur (S), calcium (Ca), and magnesium (Mg) during an initial four-year rotation of six willow varieties grown at four plantations along a 500 km north-south pedoclimatic gradient within Saskatchewan, Canada. Nutrient budgets were also calculated after quantifying various nutrient inputs (e.g., atmospheric deposition, soil mineral weathering, and organic matter mineralization), outputs (e.g., above- and below-ground biomass, leaching, and denitrification), and transfers (e.g., canopy exchange, leaf litter decomposition, and fine root turnover) affecting the plant available soil nutrient pool. Total stem, leaf litter, and below-ground (primarily fine roots) biomass production after four years averaged 19.0, 7.1, and 12.5 Mg ha-1, respectively, with corresponding soil nutrient budget deficits of 17, 39, 112, 271, and 74 kg ha-1 of N, P, K, Ca, and Mg, respectively, but a soil S surplus of 60 kg ha-1. Despite willow’s relatively low nutrient-demanding nature, negligible leaching and denitrification losses, and substantial nutrient cycling from leaf litter, the nutrient export in harvested biomass over multiple rotations will require soil nutrient amendments, particularly N and P, to maintain plantation productivity. Given the apparent eventual need for supplemental fertility to support adequate willow growth over the 22-yr plantation life span, the fate of broadcast 15N-labelled fertilizer was also examined. Though the willow accumulated less than ⅓ of the applied fertilizer N after one year, the majority of the residual fertilizer N (51%) remained available for willow uptake in subsequent years. Further research is needed to track the fate of applied fertilizers over multiple rotations to better understand fertilizer dynamics for optimizing SRC willow agronomy; thus helping to promote its viability as a biomass energy feedstock option.

One of the biggest challenges from petroleum wealth comes from a subsequent loss of international competitiveness. Resource wealth can easily inflate the local economy, making it more difficult for other economic sectors to maintain international competitiveness. This chapter introduces the challenge of Dutch Disease and its diverse remedies. The latter part of the chapter describes how Norway has always struggled with the need to maintain international competitiveness, and has developed a highly organized economy (corporatism) as a result. Norwegian incomes policy, responsible budgeting policies, devaluations, and a restricted pace of extraction have all been used, at various times, to limit the threat of a real exchange rate appreciation.

Ventilator rate, volume, and time parameters are interrelated directly, mechanically, and physiologically, and interactions between intrinsic pulmonary physio-mechanics, pathology and the effects of mechanical ventilation complex. The physiological consequences of mechanical ventilation and risks of ventilator-induced trauma may be exacerbated by lung pathology. Programming of ventilator parameters should be considered within the context of an individualized ventilatory strategy to achieve adequate gas exchange, while minimizing attendant risks of mechanical ventilation. Recommended strategies should be modified within accepted limits to mitigate disease-specific risks. Parameters should subsequently be titrated against blood gas- and ventilator-derived targets, and other clinical variables.

This chapter describes the treatment accorded to monetary transfers by investment treaties. Nearly all investment treaties grant covered investors or investments the freedom to make monetary transfers. However, the precise nature of such provisions in particular treaties depends upon the differing interests of host country governments. While investors want broad and unrestricted guarantees on monetary transfers, host states seek, in varying degrees, to limit their commitments with respect to monetary transfers and to subject them to qualifications and exceptions. Although the provisions on monetary transfers vary from treaty to treaty, they all tend to address six basic issues: (1) the general scope of the investor's rights to make monetary transfers; (2) the types of payments that are covered by such rights; (3) the nature of the currency in which payments may be made; (4) the applicable exchange rate; (5) the time within which the host state must allow the investor to make transfers; and (6) exceptions to the right to make monetary transfers.

This chapter addresses how Fulbright’s views on race complicated American exchange programs with African nations in the 1960s. At the height of the civil rights movement, Presidents Kennedy and Johnson sought to improve relations with newly decolonized African nations, and Fulbright’s influence over exchange programs complicated that pursuit. Though Fulbright believed that boosting mutual understanding through exchange was the world’s best hope for creating and maintaining peace, he did not believe that all people—not least Africans—would be able to grasp the liberal, Western ideals he wished to spread. Though he was known as a racial moderate, his outlook on policy was hemmed in by the color line at home and abroad, a fact that constrained the US government’s African exchange programming. He preferred that the focus of exchange programs remain on Europe.

This chapter recounts the Nationalist government's announcement that it was going off the silver standard and onto a managed currency called the fabi in November 1935. It mentions how the government nationalized silver stocks, limited the note issued to several banks, and promised to buy and sell fabi without limit at certain exchange rates against the U.S. dollar and British pound. It also talks about members of the Silver Bloc in the United States who believed the falling price of silver in the late 1920s and early 1930s caused the Great Depression by taking away the purchasing power of Chinese consumers and contracting U.S. exports. The chapter analyses the Silver Purchase Act, which according to economist Milton Friedman harmed the U.S. silver producers as it destroyed what had been a major market for their output. It tackles the central question in China on how to change the monetary system and how to defend fabi as a new currency.

Cycle characteristics of closed gas turbines using super critical carbon dioxide as a working fluid are investigated. It is found an anomalous behavior of physical properties of CO2 at pseudo-critical point may limit heat exchange rate of a regenerative heat exchanger due to the presence of pinch point inside the regenerative heat exchanger. Taking such pinch problem into consideration, the cycle efficiency of Brayton cycle is assessed. Its value is found limited to 39% degraded by 8% compared with the case without the pinch present inside. As an alternative a part flow cycle is investigated and its operable range has been identified. It is revealed that the part flow cycle is effective to recover heat transfer capability and may achieve the cycle thermal efficiency of 45% under maximum operating conditions of 20MPa and 800K. Optimal combination of turbine expansion ratio and a part flow ratio is 2.5 and 0.68 respectively. Parametric study is carried out. In neither compressor nor turbine, deteriorated adiabatic efficiency may affect cycle efficiency significantly. However, pressure drop characteristics of heat exchangers govern the cycle efficiency.

Two significant goals in solar plant operation are lower cost and higher efficiencies. This is both for general competitiveness of solar technology in the energy industry, and also to meet the US DOE Sunshot Initiative Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) cost goals [1]. We present here an investigation on the effects of adding a bottoming steam power cycle to a solar-fossil hybrid CSP plant based on a Small Particle Heat Exchange Receiver (SPHER) driving a gas turbine as the primary cycle. Due to the high operating temperature of the SPHER being considered (over 1000 Celsius), the exhaust air from the primary Brayton cycle still contains a tremendous amount of exergy. This exergy of the gas flow can be captured in a heat recovery steam generator (HRSG), to generate superheated steam and run a bottoming Rankine cycle, in a combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) system. A wide range of cases were run to explore options for maximizing both power and efficiency from the proposed CSP CCGT plant. Due to the generalized nature of the bottoming cycle modeling, and the varying nature of solar power, special consideration had to be given to the behavior of the heat exchanger and Rankine cycle in off-design scenarios. Variable guide vanes (VGVs), which can control the mass flow rate through the gas turbine system, have been found to be an effective tool in providing operational flexibility to address the variable nature of solar input. The effect VGVs and the operating range associated with them are presented. Strategies for meeting a minimum solar share are also explored. Trends with respect to the change in variable guide vane angle are discussed, as well as the response of the HRSG and bottoming Rankine cycle in response to changes in the gas mass flow rate and temperature. System efficiencies in the range of 50% were found to result from this plant configuration. However, a combustor inlet temperature (CIT) limit lower than a turbine inlet temperature (TIT) limit leads two distinct Modes of operation, with a sharp drop in both plant efficiency and power occurring when the air flow through the receiver exceeded the (CIT) limit, and as a result would have to bypass the combustor entirely and enter the turbine at a significantly lower temperature than nominal. Until that limit is completely eliminated through material or design improvements, this drawback can be addressed through strategic use of the variable guide vanes. Optimal operational strategy is ultimately decided by economics, plant objectives, or other market incentives.

Abstract In a fuel cell vehicle, the water content of the gas supply within certain ranges plays a key role in improving the performance of a proton exchange membrane. The lower limit of water content in the air supply is to avoid the problem of drying-out, while the upper prevents flooding. Water management can be accomplished by a membrane humidifier which allows water vapor to permeate the mixture from the side having the higher water concentration, moving to the other side of the membrane. In this study, the variation in water content collected at the outlet of a membrane humidifier is investigated with a one-dimensional mass exchanger model and various operating variables. The vapor concentration of outlet flows is affected by operating temperature and relative humidity of the membrane humidifier. Relative humidity of the dry side at the point of outlet flow, to be supplied to the fuel cell module, is the key characteristic. The analogy of the effectiveness-NTU approach for heat transfer is used to analyze the characteristics of the mass exchanger. Mass flux through the membranes is estimated with an overall mass transfer coefficient which represents vapor transport characteristics moving through the membrane module. This coefficient has a similar role to the overall heat transfer coefficient in heat exchanger analysis. This parametric study is conducted to understand the effects of different variables. The Effectiveness-NTU methodology of mass transfer uses the overall mass transfer coefficient and the mass transfer rate, as evaluated experimentally. Simulink software is then employed to deliver outcomes of the model for different operating conditions.

Based on the decision of the State Office for Nuclear Safety, the Dukovany NPP has been obliged to secure the efficient capacities for the disposal of spent ion exchange resins. Therefore, in September 2010, based on the contract with supplier company AMEC Nuclear Slovakia s.r.o. has begun with pumping and treatment of ion exchange resins from the storage tank 0TW30B02, situated in the auxiliary building. The SIAL® technology, developed in AMEC Nuclear Slovakia, has been used for the solidification purposes. This technology allows an on-site treatment of various special radioactive waste streams (resins, sludge, sludge/resins and borates) at the room temperature. The SIAL® matrix and technology were licensed by the Czech State Office for Nuclear Safety in 2007. On-site treatment and solidification of spent ion exchange resins at Dukovany NPP involves process of resin removal from tank using remotely operated manipulator, resin transportation, resin separation from free water, resin filling into 200 dm3 drums and solidification into SIAL® matrix in 200 dm3 drums using the FIZA S 200 facility. The final product is observed for compressive strength, leachability, radionuclide composition, dose rate, solids and total weight. After meeting the requirements for final disposal and consolidation, the drums are being transported for the final disposal to the Repository at Dukovany site. During the 3 month’s trial operation in 2010, and the normal operation in 2011 and 2012, 189 tons of dewatered resins have been treated into 1960 drums, with total activity higher than 920 GBq. At the end of trial run (2010), 22 tons of dewatered resins were treated into 235 drums. During standard operation approximately 91 tons in 960 drums (2011) and 76 tons in 765 drums (2012) were treated. The weights of resins in the drum ware in the range from 89–106 kg and compressive strength limit (10 MPa) has already been achieved 24 hours after fixation. The final measured strength values ranged from 19.0–34.7 MPa and real leachability values ranged from 0.03–0.65%, far below the 4% limit value. Collective effective dose of all workers in 2012 was 7.7 mSv (12.6 mSv in 2011, 6.2 mSv in 2010). Average individual effective dose in 2012 was 0.55 mSv (14 workers), and maximal individual effective dose was 2.25 mSv. This approach allows fast, safe and cost effective immobilization and transformation of dangerous radioactive waste such as sludge and resins into the solid form, which is suitable for long term storage or disposal.

Lean premixed prevaporised (LPP) combustion can reduce NOx emissions from gas turbines, but often leads to combustion instability. Acoustic waves produce fluctuations in heat release, for instance by perturbing the fuel-air ratio. These heat fluctuations will in turn generate more acoustic waves and in some situations linear oscillations grow into large amplitude self-sustained oscillations. The resulting limit cycles can cause structural damage. Thermoacoustic oscillations will have a low amplitude initially. Thus linear models can describe the initial growth and hence give stability predictions. An unstable linear mode will grow in amplitude until nonlinear effects become sufficiently important to achieve a limit cycle. While the frequency of the linear mode can often provide a good approximation to that of the resulting limit cycle, linear theories give no prediction of its resulting amplitude. In previous work, we developed a low-order frequency-domain method to model thermoacoustic limit cycles in LPP combustors. This was based on a ‘describing function’ approach and is only applicable when there is a dominant mode and the main nonlinearity is in the combustion response to flow perturbations. In this paper that method is extended into the time domain. The main advantage of the time-domain approach is that limit-cycle stability, the influence of harmonics, and the interaction between different modes can be simulated. In LPP combustion, fluctuations in the inlet fuel-air ratio have been shown to be the dominant cause of unsteady combustion: these occur because velocity perturbations in the premix ducts cause a time-varying fuel-air ratio, which then convects downstream. If the velocity perturbation becomes comparable to the mean flow, there will be an amplitude-dependent effect on the equivalence ratio fluctuations entering the combustor and hence on the rate of heat release. Since the Mach number is low, the velocity perturbation can be comparable to the mean flow, with even reverse flow occurring, while the disturbances are still acoustically linear in that the pressure perturbation is still much smaller than the mean. Hence while the combustion response to flow velocity and equivalence ratio fluctuations must be modelled nonlinearly, the flow perturbations generated as a result of the unsteady combustion can be treated as linear. In developing a time-domain network model for nonlinear thermoacoustic oscillations an initial frequency-domain calculation is performed. The linear network model, LOTAN, is used to categorise the combustor geometry by finding the transfer function for the response of flow perturbations (at the fuel injectors, say) to heat-release oscillations. This transfer function is then converted into the time domain through an inverse Fourier transform to obtain the Green’s function, which thus relates unsteady flow to heat release at previous times. By combining this with a nonlinear flame model (relating heat release to unsteady flow at previous times) a complete time-domain solution can be found by stepping forward in time. If an unstable mode is present, its amplitude will initially grow exponentially (in accordance with linear theory) until saturation effects in the flame model become significant, and eventually a stable limit cycle will be attained. The time-domain approach enables determination of the limit-cycle. In addition, the influence of harmonics and the interaction and exchange of energy between different modes can be simulated. These effects are investigated for longitudinal and circumferential instabilities in an example combustor system and results are compared to frequency-domain limit-cycle predictions.

As part of operations, petrochemical and process plants sometimes require the exchange of heat between a high pressure fluid and a lower pressure fluid in shell-and-tube heat exchangers. In most cases, the high pressure fluid exists on the tubeside and the lower pressure is on the shellside. While rare, it is possible for a tube inside the exchanger shell to rupture suddenly, releasing the high pressure fluid into the shellside. If the pressure of the high pressure fluid exceeds the design pressure of the low pressure shell or its attached piping, it might be possible for the resulting pressure in the low pressure side to exceed permitted values. In such cases, API 521 provides guidance on assuring that sufficient pressure relief is available to limit the pressures on the heat exchanger(s)’ low pressure side. An overpressure analysis per API 521 can include both steady-state and transient analysis methods for determining that the pressures remain within acceptable levels. In situations where a large pressure differential exists between the high and low pressure sides of the exchanger, the transient, hydraulic analysis of the tube rupture event can be used as a tool to help mitigate over pressure. After briefly discussing the analysis methodology, this paper discusses some of the practical considerations and decisions that normally go into conducting the analysis.

Low-finned tubes can be effective in baffled flow heat exchangers, if the heat transfer coefficients on either side of the heat exchanger differ greatly and therefore limit the thermal conductance of the heat exchanger. Low-finned tubes can increase thermal conductance by providing additional heat transfer area on the limiting side. The height and the spacing of the low-fins must be greater than the thickness of the thermal boundary layer on the low-finned side of the heat exchanger. Otherwise, the effectiveness of the additional area that the low-finned tubes provide will be reduced. The boundary layer thickness is dependent on the velocity and the thermophysical properties of the fluids. Therefore, in a standard shell-and-tube heat exchanger, the number of heat exchanger shell-side baffles needs to be properly considered to provide the correct shellside velocity without introducing too much pressure drop. Testing of a shell-and-tube heat exchanger containing low-finned tubes varied the flow rate and pressure of the supercritical CO2 on the shell side as water provided the cooling on the tube side. The testing maintained the temperature and pressure of the CO2 above the critical point in order to determine the changes in the effectiveness of the low-finned tubes and thus the heat transfer rate of the heat exchanger. The results show that the additional heat transfer area provided by the low-finned tubes will remain fully effective, even as the supercritical fluid nears its critical point or a pseudo-critical temperature. This result also supports (but is not sufficient to prove) the guidance to limit the estimated thickness of the thermal boundary layer to the fin height and twice the fin spacing to ensure the additional heat transfer area provided by the low-finned tubes remain effective.

Innovations in the field of nanotechnology have potential to improve industrial productivity and performance. One promising applications of this emerging technology is using nanofluids with enhanced thermal properties. Nanofluids, engineered colloidal suspensions consisting of nano-sized particles (less than 100nm) dispersed in a basefluid, have shown potential as industrial cooling fluids due to the enhanced heat transfer characteristics. Experiments are conducted to compare the overall heat transfer coefficient and pressure drop of water vs. nanofluids in a laboratory scale industrial type shell and tube heat exchanger. Three mass particle concentrations, 2%, 4% and 6%, of SiO2-water nanofluids are formulated by dispersing 20 nm diameter nano particles in desalinated water. Nanofluid and tap water are then circulated in the cold and hot loops, respectively, of the heat exchanger to avoid direct particle deposition on heater surfaces. Interestingly, experimental result show both augmentation and deterioration of heat transfer coefficient for nanofluids depending on the flow rate through the heat exchangers. This trend is consistent with an earlier reported observation for heat transfer in micro channels. This trend may be explained by the counter effect of the changes in thermo-physical properties of fluids together with the fouling on the heat exchanger surfaces. The measured pressure drop in the nanofluids flow shows an increase when compared to that of basefluid that could limit the use of nanofluids in heat exchangers for industrial application.

Abstract Low cost (&lt; $150 kWt−1) and high heat-transfer coefficient particle heat exchangers may enable high temperature operation of high efficiency power cycles (supercritical CO2/air Brayton) [1–3]. Currently, these heat exchangers are cost-prohibitive and require large surface areas due to ineffective particle-particle and particle-CO2 heat transfer. Particle heat transfer media are examples of complex material systems that can display a re-configurable mesostructure during flow or shearing processes. This deformation or rearrangement in the underlying active material can cause a decrease in the thermal transport properties and limit the heat-transfer coefficient. For future adoption, it is critical that we gain a greater understanding of how local (particle-particle) thermophysical properties are affected by system architecture/design. Traditional heat exchanger optimization approaches are limited and often lead to non-feasible design approaches. Here, we employ a stochastic and evolutionary method, particle swarm optimization (PSO), to perform a multi-objective optimization for the particle-to-sCO2 shell-and-plate heat exchanger for two state-of-the-art particulate materials (i.e., Accucast ID50K and CARBO HSP). The objective function for optimization considers the minimum payback period (economics), entropy generation (thermodynamics), and volume (engineering). The results suggest that Accucast ID50K is preferable for a packed bed heat exchanger from the perspective of minimizing payback period and volume, while at a larger entropy generation rate than CARBO HSP.

Rectangular metal expansion joints are commonly used in flue gas ductwork, turbine exhaust systems, and heat exchanger applications. The Standards of the Expansion Joint Manufacturers Association (EJMA) are widely referenced for the design of rectangular metal expansion joints. The 8th edition, 2005 addenda, contains equations for rectangular metal bellows pressure stresses, movement stresses, beam lateral deflection, fatigue life, and spring rate. This paper evaluates the accuracy of the EJMA equations based on failure reports and FEA studies. Both linear elastic and non-linear limit analyses are used for the evaluations. Improved methods are proposed for the determination of pressure capacity, beam deflection, moment of inertia, and corner rigidity. New lateral deflection limits and acceptance criteria are provided herein. This paper also includes design considerations for the pressure stops used to support bellows rails.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

In Colombia, as well as in the rest of the world, the Covid-19 pandemic has seriously damaged the health and well-being of the people. In order to limit the damage, local and national authorities have had to order large sectors of the population to be confined at their homes for long periods of time. An inevitable consequence of isolation has been the collapse of economic activity, expenditure, and employment, a phenomenon that has hit many countries of the world affected by the disease. It is an unprecedented crisis in modern times, not so much for its intensity (which is undoubtedly immense), but because its origin is not economic. That is what makes it so unpredictable and difficult to manage. Naturally, its economic consequences are enormous. Governments and central banks from all over the world are struggling to mitigate them, but the final solution is not in the hands of the economic authorities. Only science can provide a way out. In the meantime, the economic indicators in Colombia and in the rest of the world cause concern. The output falls, the massive loss of jobs, and the closure of businesses of all sizes have become daily news. Added to this, there is the deterioration in global financial conditions and the increase in the risk indicators. Financial volatility has increased and stock indexes have fallen. In the face of the lower global demand, export prices of raw materials have fallen, affecting the terms of trade for producing countries. Workers’ remittances have declined due to the increase of unemployment in developed countries. This crisis has also generated a strong reduction of global trade of goods and services, and effects on the global value chains. Central banks around the world have reacted decisively and quickly with strong liquidity injections and significant cuts to their interest rates. By mid-July, such determined response had succeeded to revert much of the initial deterioration in global financial conditions. The stock exchanges stopped their fall, and showed significant recovery in several countries. Risk premia, which at the beginning of the crisis took an unusual leap, recorded substantial corrections. Something similar happened with the volatility indexes of global financial markets, which exhibited significant improvement. Flexibilization of confinement measures in some economies, broad global liquidity, and fiscal policy measures have also contributed to improve global external financial conditions, albeit with indicators that still do not return to their pre-Covid levels.

From this edition, the Financial Stability Report will have fewer pages with some changes in its structure. The purpose of this change is to present the most relevant facts of the financial system and their implications on the financial stability. This allows displaying the analysis more concisely and clearly, as it will focus on describing the evolution of the variables that have the greatest impact on the performance of the financial system, for estimating then the effect of a possible materialization of these risks on the financial health of the institutions. The changing dynamics of the risks faced by the financial system implies that the content of the Report adopts this new structure; therefore, some analyses and series that were regularly included will not necessarily be in each issue. However, the statistical annex that accompanies the publication of the Report will continue to present the series that were traditionally included, regardless of whether or not they are part of the content of the Report. In this way we expect to contribute in a more comprehensive way to the study and analysis of the stability of the Colombian financial system. Executive Summary During the first half of 2015, the main advanced economies showed a slow recovery on their growth, while emerging economies continued with their slowdown trend. Domestic demand in the United States allowed for stabilization on its average growth for the first half of the year, while other developed economies such as the United Kingdom, the euro zone, and Japan showed a more gradual recovery. On the other hand, the Chinese economy exhibited the lowest growth rate in five years, which has resulted in lower global dynamism. This has led to a fall in prices of the main export goods of some Latin American economies, especially oil, whose price has also responded to a larger global supply. The decrease in the terms of trade of the Latin American economies has had an impact on national income, domestic demand, and growth. This scenario has been reflected in increases in sovereign risk spreads, devaluations of stock indices, and depreciation of the exchange rates of most countries in the region. For Colombia, the fall in oil prices has also led to a decline in the terms of trade, resulting in pressure on the dynamics of national income. Additionally, the lower demand for exports helped to widen the current account deficit. This affected the prospects and economic growth of the country during the first half of 2015. This economic context could have an impact on the payment capacity of debtors and on the valuation of investments, affecting the soundness of the financial system. However, the results of the analysis featured in this edition of the Report show that, facing an adverse scenario, the vulnerability of the financial system in terms of solvency and liquidity is low. The analysis of the current situation of credit institutions (CI) shows that growth of the gross loan portfolio remained relatively stable, as well as the loan portfolio quality indicators, except for microcredit, which showed a decrease in these indicators. Regarding liabilities, traditional sources of funding have lost market share versus non-traditional ones (bonds, money market operations and in the interbank market), but still represent more than 70%. Moreover, the solvency indicator remained relatively stable. As for non-banking financial institutions (NBFI), the slowdown observed during the first six months of 2015 in the real annual growth of the assets total, both in the proprietary and third party position, stands out. The analysis of the main debtors of the financial system shows that indebtedness of the private corporate sector has increased in the last year, mostly driven by an increase in the debt balance with domestic and foreign financial institutions. However, the increase in this latter source of funding has been influenced by the depreciation of the Colombian peso vis-à-vis the US dollar since mid-2014. The financial indicators reflected a favorable behavior with respect to the historical average, except for the profitability indicators; although they were below the average, they have shown improvement in the last year. By economic sector, it is noted that the firms focused on farming, mining and transportation activities recorded the highest levels of risk perception by credit institutions, and the largest increases in default levels with respect to those observed in December 2014. Meanwhile, households have shown an increase in the financial burden, mainly due to growth in the consumer loan portfolio, in which the modalities of credit card, payroll deductible loan, revolving and vehicle loan are those that have reported greater increases in risk indicators. On the side of investments that could be affected by the devaluation in the portfolio of credit institutions and non-banking financial institutions (NBFI), the largest share of public debt securities, variable-yield securities and domestic private debt securities is highlighted. The value of these portfolios fell between February and August 2015, driven by the devaluation in the market of these investments throughout the year. Furthermore, the analysis of the liquidity risk indicator (LRI) shows that all intermediaries showed adequate levels and exhibit a stable behavior. Likewise, the fragility analysis of the financial system associated with the increase in the use of non-traditional funding sources does not evidence a greater exposure to liquidity risk. Stress tests assess the impact of the possible joint materialization of credit and market risks, and reveal that neither the aggregate solvency indicator, nor the liquidity risk indicator (LRI) of the system would be below the established legal limits. The entities that result more individually affected have a low share in the total assets of the credit institutions; therefore, a risk to the financial system as a whole is not observed. José Darío Uribe Governor