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Bui, Duy Hung. "Essays on Vietnam’s Exchange Rate Policy." Thesis, Griffith University, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/368176.
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This thesis is motivated by the fact that the limitations and shortcomings of Vietnam’s exchange rate policy have been revealed some 30 years after the implementation of the Doi Moi program. This is one of the country’s most important macroeconomic policies, playing a significant role in the development of its economy. The thesis is structured in 6 essays, which cover the main characteristics of the Vietnamese foreign exchange market and exchange rate policy, as follows.
Firstly, this thesis explores the issue of the parallel foreign exchange market, which has created several complications for the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) in its attempts to manage the foreign exchange market and the official exchange rate. Fluctuations in the parallel market rates affect the level of international reserves, the position of the economy and the public’s portfolio decisions. An analysis of this market indicates that the official exchange rate, income, and domestic price relative to the world’s prices are the important factors in determining the exchange rate in the parallel market.Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Griffith Business School
Griffith Business School
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Nguyen, Tran Phuc. "Exchange Rate Policy and the Foreign Exchange Market in Vietnam, 1985-2009." Thesis, Griffith University, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/365707.
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Since the mid-1980s, when Vietnam embarked on a transitional path to a market-oriented economic system, the country’s exchange rate regime has undergone major changes. To what extent have these changes facilitated the pursuit of the authorities’ main policy priorities? How appropriate are the current exchange rate setting arrangements, in light of domestic and international developments? These questions are of potential interest to researchers as well as to policy-makers not only in Vietnam, but also in other developing and transitional economies. Yet they are difficult to answer satisfactorily, partly because of the opaque nature of information about the Vietnamese authorities’ policy objectives and partly because of a relative scarcity of systematic and rigorous studies of these issues in the Vietnamese context. The purpose of this study is to help address this relative gap in the literature and to provide a better understanding of Vietnam’s exchange rate policy since the late 1980s and its consequences for macroeconomic performance and foreign exchange (forex) market development. In pursuing these objectives, this study employs three methods of analysis: (i) analytical review and synthesis; (ii) econometric analysis; and (iii) questionnaire survey. These different analytical techniques are applied in a complementary and integrated way to provide a broadly-based analysis of different but inter-related aspects of exchange rate policy and the forex market in Vietnam.Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Griffith Business School
Griffith Business School
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Le, Huy Chinh. "Monetary policy in the context of Vietnamese economy." Thesis, Aix-Marseille, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015AIXM2014.
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Cette thèse propose quatre contributions à l'étude de la politique monétaire dans le contexte de l'économie vietnamienne, depuis 1995-1996 jusqu’à maintenant.Le premier chapitre donne aperçu de l'économie vietnamienne et sa politique monétaire. Il s’agit d’un chapitre qui problématise les questions traitées économétriquement dans le reste de la thèse.Chapitre 2 montrent qu'il y a une relation à long terme entre le taux de change du marché noir et ses variables monétaires. Le taux de change officiel, l’écart de la masse monétaire et de taux d'intérêt intérieur ont des effets positifs significatifs sur le taux de change du marché noir tandis que la production intérieure réelle et le taux d'intérêt à l'étranger ont un impact négatif significatif sur cet indice. Chapitre 3 fournissent de fortes preuves relatives à la relation à long terme entre taux de change et ses fondamentaux monétaires relatifs. Bien que les signes des taux d'intérêt estimés soient ambigu, les coefficients estimés de la monnaie et du rendement sont compatibles avec toutes les variantes traditionnelles du modèle monétaire de la détermination du taux de change. Finalement, nous constatons que le pass-through du taux de change sur l'inflation est fort et rapide, et que le taux de change a un effet positif significatif sur l'inflation. La masse monétaire joue un rôle important dans la détermination de l'inflation alors que le taux d'intérêt ne semble pas avoir un impact significatif sur l'inflation. En outre, le prix du pétrole l’influence considérablement. Un choc de taux d’intérêts des États-Unis joue un rôle insignifiant dans l’explication de la variabilité des variables macroéconomiques domestiquesThis dissertation proposes four contributions to the study of monetary policy in the context of Vietnamese economy from 1995-96 onwards. The first chapter provides an overview of Vietnamese economy and its monetary policy. It provides some issues that are resolved econometrically in the rest of the thesis.The second chapter investigates the black market exchange rate determination. We find that there is a long-run relationship between black market exchange rate and its relative monetary variables. Official exchange rate, money supply differential and domestic interest rate have significant positive effects on black market exchange rate while domestic real output and foreign interest rate have meaningful negative impact on black market exchange rate.The third chapter examines how well versions of monetary models explain the VND/U.S dollar exchange rate. Estimates provide strong evidences of long-run relationship between exchange rate and its relative monetary fundamentals. Although the signs of estimated interest rates are mixed, estimated coefficients of money and output are consistent with any traditional variant of monetary model of exchange rate determination. Eventually, we find that the exchange rate pass-through to inflation is high and rapid, and exchange rate has a significant positive effect of exchange rate on inflation. Estimates also reveal that money supply plays a significant role in shaping inflation while interest rate does not seem to have a meaningful impact on inflation. In addition, oil price also has significant impact on inflation. U.S interest rate shock plays an insignificant role in explaining the variability of domestic macro variables
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NGUYEN, Phuc Hien. "China’ s Exchange Rate Policy and International Competitiveness ( Export ) 1994-2005 : IS IT A LESSON FOR VIETNAM ?" 名古屋大学大学院経済学研究科附属国際経済政策研究センター, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/2237/16043.
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Diallo, Ibrahima Amadou. "EXCHANGE RATE POLICY AND PRODUCTIVITY." Phd thesis, Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I, 2013. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00997038.
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Cette thèse étudie comment le taux de change effectif réel (TCER) et ses mesures associées (volatilité du TCER et désalignement du TCER) affectent la croissance de la productivité totale des facteurs (CPTF). Elle analyse également les canaux par lesquels le TCER et ses mesures associées agissent sur la productivité totale des facteurs (PTF). La première partie étudie comment le TCER lui-même, d'une part, et la volatilité du TCER, d'autre part, influencent la productivité. Une analyse du lien entre le niveau du TCER et la PTF dans le chapitre 1 indique qu'une appréciation de taux de change cause une augmentation de la PTF. Mais cet impact est également non-linéaire: en-dessous du seuil, le TCER influence négativement la productivité tandis qu'au-dessus du seuil il agit positivement. Les résultats du chapitre 2 illustrent que la volatilité du TCER affecte négativement la CPTF. Nous avons également constaté que la volatilité du TCER agit sur PTF selon le niveau du développement financier. Pour les pays modérément financièrement développés, la volatilité du TCER réagit négativement sur la productivité et n'a aucun effet sur la productivité pour les niveaux très bas et très élevés du développement financier. La deuxième partie examine les canaux par lesquels le TCER et ses mesures associées influencent la productivité. Les résultats du chapitre 3 illustrent que la volatilité du TCER a un impact négatif élevé sur l'investissement. Ces résultats sont robustes dans les pays à faible revenu et les pays à revenu moyens, et en employant une mesure alternative de volatilité du TCER. Le chapitre 4 montre que le désalignement du taux de change réel et la volatilité du taux de change réel affectent négativement les exportations. Il démontre également que la volatilité du taux de change réel est plus nocive aux exportations que le désalignement. Ces résultats sont corroborés par des résultats sur des sous-échantillons de pays à bas revenu et à revenu moyen.
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Post, Erik. "Macroeconomic uncertainty and exchange rate policy /." Uppsala : Department of Economics, Uppsala universitet, 2007. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-7808.
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Tjirongo, Meshack Tunee. "Exchange rate policy options for Namibia." Thesis, University of Oxford, 1998. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:fdb75211-db30-4393-a6f7-61d46ff4b9b7.
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The thesis assesses the costs and benefits of Namibia's membership of the CMA to determine whether the CMA is an optimal currency area at least from the perspective of Namibia. This issue is examined from two main perspectives: (a) whether real exchange rate (RER) adjustment is frustrated by the inability to use the nominal exchange rate as an instrument of adjustment. Evidence of persistent RER misalignment may be seen as a necessary condition for an independent nominal exchange rate regime, however, it is not sufficient.(b) In this case, we examine whether nominal devaluations will have sustained effects on RER adjustment, given Namibia's structural features, such as the high degree of openness and a small nontradable sector. An equilibrium RER for Namibia is estimated using a single equation model of RER determination. The model is used to compute RER misalignments to determine whether there are sustained long periods of misalignments. To test whether nominal exchange rates can be effective in changing relative prices, a simple model was developed to measure pass-through of foreign price and exchange rate changes to domestic prices and wages. This provides useful information regarding whether nominal devaluations can be sustained. The results show that RER misalignments have been small, while the extent and speed of pass-through is complete and instantaneous for most items, suggesting that nominal devaluations in Namibia are not likely to have real effects. Even if it was the case that monetary autonomy cannot be supported on grounds of affecting relative prices, it may nevertheless be important for Namibia to pursue an independent exchange rate strategy. To examine this possibility, the analysis was extended by looking at costs and benefits of OCAs which do not rely on the ability to change relative prices. Benefits arising from savings on transactions costs and on foreign exchange reserves amounted to 3.8% and 2.4% of GDP, respectively. Further, we demonstrated that past "shocks" between Namibia and South Africa were highly correlated. The findings of the thesis suggest that the CMA is an optimal exchange regime for Namibia.
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Tsaveas, Nicholas. "Essays on uncertainty and exchange rate policy." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1991. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.303162.
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Komolafe, Oluranti Stella. "Exchange rate policy in Nigera, 1960-1992." Thesis, University of Sussex, 1993. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.385162.
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An, Lian. "THREE ESSAYS ON EXCHANGE RATE AND MONETARY POLICY." UKnowledge, 2006. http://uknowledge.uky.edu/gradschool_diss/491.
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There are four chapters in my dissertation. Chapter one gives a brief introduction of the three essays. Chapter two empirically analyzes the interaction among conventional monetary policy, foreign exchange intervention and the exchange rate in a unifying model for Japan. I have several findings. First, the results lend support to the leaning-against-the-wind hypothesis. Second, conventional monetary policy has as great influence on the exchange rate as foreign exchange intervention in Japan. Third, intervention in Japan is ineffective or may be counter-effective, so escaping liquidity trap by intervention alone may not be a feasible way. Chapter three empirically identifies the sources of exchange rate movements of Japan vis--vis the US, and investigates the role of the exchange rate in the macro economy adjustment. It finds that real shocks dominate nominal shocks in explaining the exchange rate movements, with relative real demand shocks as the major contributor. And the exchange rate market does not create many shocks. The overall result supports that the bilateral exchange rate in Japan is a shock-absorber rather than a source of shock. Chapter four provides cross-country and time-series evidence on the extent of exchange rate pass-through at different stages of distribution - import prices, producer prices and consumer prices - for eight major industrial countries: United States, Japan, Canada, Italy, UK, Finland, Sweden and Spain. I find exchange rate pass-through incomplete in many horizons, though complete pass-through is observed occasionally. The degree of pass-through declines and time needed for complete pass-through lengthens along the distribution chain. Furthermore, I find that a greater pass-through coefficient is associated with an economy that is smaller in size with higher import shares, more persistent and less volatile exchange rate shocks, more volatile monetary shocks, higher inflation rate, and less volatile GDP.
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Stolle, Christopher M. "China's exchange rate policy: a double-edged sword." Thesis, Monterey, California: Naval Postgraduate School, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/39019.
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Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.Few policies have such far-reaching influence on an economy as exchange rate controls. Over the last decade, China has maintained an artificially devalued currency by purchasing U.S. dollars while selling domestic Renminbi (RMB). In theory, this practice will benefit the economy by making exports cheaper. Cheap exports have been an important component of the PRCs investment-driven growth model, which transformed China into an economic powerhouse. Although a devalued currency makes exports cheaper, it also makes imports more expensive. As Chinas economy evolves, the PRC recognizes the need to shift to a more innovative consumption-driven growth model from the current investment-driven model. This study argues that a devalued RMB is inhibiting this progress because it undermines the consumptive power of its citizens through more expensive imports, financial repression, and capital controls, all of which are closely linked to a devalued RMB. This study will look at imbalances in Chinas consumption and production structures affected by a devalued RMB and identify the artificial winners and losers of the current policy. Also, gradual RMB appreciation over the last decade will be analyzed to determine the extent an increasing RMB has moved economic imbalances.
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Sow, Moussé Ndoye. "Essays on Exchange Rate Regimes and Fiscal Policy." Thesis, Clermont-Ferrand 1, 2015. http://www.theses.fr/2015CLF10479/document.
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Cette thèse s’intéresse d’une part aux effets macroéconomiques des régimes de change, et d’autre part, aux récentes évolutions sur la politique budgétaire et la décentralisation. La partie I met essentiellement l’accent sur l’interaction entre les régimes de change (RC) et la politique budgétaire, monétaire et fiscale. Tout d’abord, nous mettons en évidence que les RC peuvent avoir un effet stabilisateur sur la politique budgétaire (chapitre 1). Cependant, cet effet stabilisateur des RC n’est pas automatique mais dépendrait plutôt des conséquences d’une politique budgétaire laxiste. Le chapitre 2 s’intéresse quant à lui à la causalité entre RC et crises (bancaire/financière, de change et de dette) et remet en cause la vision bipolaire qui prétendait que les RC intermédiaires sont plus vulnérables aux crises que les solutions en coin (RC fixes/flexibles). Il ressort de notre analyse que les fondamentaux macroéconomiques (la volatilité du crédit au secteur privé, le financement du déficit, et le ratio dette sur PIB) jouent un rôle considérable. Le chapitre 3 met en évidence un lien entre les RC et la politique fiscale. Les pays à RC fixes montrent une plus grande dépendance aux recettes domestiques –telles que la TVA-, comparativement aux pays en change intermédiaires/flexibles pour compenser les pertes de recettes de seigneuriage (effet de substitution). De plus, ces pays avec RC fixes collectent plus de recettes domestiques en compensation de la perte de recettes douanières, suite à la libéralisation commerciale (effet de compétitivité). Dans les trois derniers chapitres (partie II), nous mettons le focus sur la politique budgétaire et les effets de la décentralisation. Le chapitre 4 révèle une relation non-linéaire entre la politique budgétaire et le cycle économique, qui dépend du niveau de la dette publique. Lorsque celle-ci dépasse un certain seuil (87%), la politique budgétaire perd toute propriété contra-cyclique. Nous montrons par ailleurs que l’effet disciplinaire ex-ante des règles budgétaires aide à restaurer la contra-cyclicité de la politique budgétaire. A travers le chapitre 5, nous montrons que la décentralisation budgétaire, dans un cadre politico-institutionnel sein et dépourvu de corruption, améliore l’offre de biens et services publics. Le chapitre 6 conclut que la décentralisation impacte positivement le solde structurel. Cependant une asymétrie entre la décentralisation des dépenses et celle des recettes accroit la dépendance des gouvernements locaux vis-à-vis du gouvernement central en termes de transferts, et amoindrirait considérablement à l’effet positif de la décentralisationThis thesis explored, in two parts, the macroeconomic impacts of exchange rate regimes (ERR), as well as the recent developments in fiscal policy and fiscal decentralization. Part I has reconsidered the role of ERR and its interplay with fiscal, monetary and tax policy. The first result that emerges (Chapter 1) is that fixed ERR can serve as a credible policy tool for stabilizing fiscal policy. However, this stabilizing effect is conditional upon the inter-temporal distribution of the costs of loose fiscal policy. In assessing the linkage between ERR and crises (banking/financial, currency and debt), Chapter 2 evidenced that the bipolar view is no longer valid, and that, crisis proneness rather depends on the macroeconomic fundamentals (the volatility of private sector credit, the deficit-financing mechanism, and the debt-to-GDP ratio). In Chapter 3, we unveiled a strong relationship between ERR and tax policy. Countries with pegged regimes have greater reliance on domestic taxation -such as the VAT- to make up for the loss of seigniorage revenue (substitution effect). Moreover, peggers tend to collect more VAT revenue to offset the shortfall in cross border taxes following the trade liberalization reform (competitiveness effect). Part II discussed the cyclical response of fiscal policy in high debt periods, and focused on fiscal decentralization issues. In Chapter 4, we showed that the reaction of fiscal policy to the business cycle is non-linear and conditional to the level of public debt. When the debt-to-GDP ratio goes beyond a certain threshold (87%), fiscal policy loses its counter-cyclical properties. Further, we highlighted that carefully-designed fiscal rules help maintaining counter-cyclicality through an ex ante disciplinary effect. Chapters 5 and 6 analyzed the impact of fiscal decentralization on the efficiency of public service delivery and fiscal policy performance, respectively. Chapter 5 revealed that a sufficient level of expenditure decentralization, coupled with revenue decentralization, improves the efficiency of public service delivery. However, the political and institutional environment is critical for reaping decentralization-led benefits. Lastly, Chapter 6 concluded that fiscal decentralization has destabilizing effect by reducing the counter-cyclicality of fiscal policy. In addition, we found that decentralization strengthens the structural fiscal balance; however, vertical fiscal imbalances reduce the benefits of decentralization. It is therefore critical to limit asymmetries between expenditure and revenue decentralization, so as to reduce the transfer-dependency of local governments to the central level, and thus prevent decentralization from weakening the fiscal stance at the general government level
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Sun, Wei. "THREE ESSAYS ON EXCHANG RATES AND EXCHANGE RATE POLICY." Lexington, Ky. : [University of Kentucky Libraries], 2006. http://lib.uky.edu/ETD/ukyecon2006d00396/dissertationWS.pdf.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Kentucky, 2006.Title from document title page (viewed on May 8, 2006). Document formatted into pages; contains vii, 143 p. : ill. Includes abstract and vita. Includes bibliographical references (p. 133-142).
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Kim, Inchul. "Exchange Rate Policy Coordination among China, Japan, and Korea." 名古屋大学大学院経済学研究科附属国際経済政策研究センター, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/2237/11949.
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Das, Gupta Bejoy. "Exports and exchange rate policy : the case of India." Thesis, University of Oxford, 1990. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.306744.
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Rowland, Nils Peter. "Fixed exchange rate systems : monetary characteristics and policy analysis." Thesis, London Business School (University of London), 1997. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.267040.
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Caputo, Galarce Rodrigo Ernesto. "Three essays on monetary policy and the exchange rate." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 2004. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.615736.
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Oladipo, Olajide Sunday. "Exchange rate pass-through and economic policy in Nigeria." Thesis, University of Birmingham, 2005. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.668333.
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De, Allende Acosta Verónica. "Policy credibility and exchange rate management : the Mexican experience /." The Ohio State University, 1999. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1488187763848626.
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Al-Shammari, Nayef N. "Exchange rate policy and international trade linkages and impacts." Related electronic resource: Current Research at SU : database of SU dissertations, recent titles available full text, 2007. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/syr/main.
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Kim, Jung-Kwan. "Monetary policy and exchange rate during the Asian Crisis." free to MU campus, to others for purchase, 2002. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/mo/fullcit?p3052187.
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Prasad, Raymond. "Essays on international finance - monetary and exchange rate policy." Phd thesis, Canberra, ACT : The Australian National University, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/151480.
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This thesis presents three essays on monetary and exchange rate policies under the broad theme of international finance. The first essay on monetary policy (Chapter 2) considers three key questions on the behavior of the Federal reserve reaction function: (1) did the U.S Federal Reserve actively pursue a loose-fitting monetary policy which contributed to the build-up of the monetary excess prior to the GFC; (2) would an inflation target of 4 percent have provided a higher Federal Fund Rate (FFR) and thus greater room for policy maneuvering during the crisis; and (3) did the Federal Reserve fail to respond to the Black Swan in the financial market during the crisis, that is, counter-party risk and overall market stress? Using monthly data from 1984:M1 to 2010:M9, we find that only the Black Swan hypothesis put forward by Taylor and William (2009) is the most relevant, based on the single equation Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) framework and supported by the Chow test for structural change. This also explains the recent changes in the Federal Reserve monetary policy approach of employing quantitative easing measures, rather than the conventional interest rate based policy. The second essay (Chapter 3) on exchange rate volatility uses the Autoregressive Moving Average [ARMA(1,1)] in a Exponential Generalised Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity in Mean [EGARCH-M (1,1)] model to study the daily volatility in the Australian Dollar from the 03-Jan-2000 to 28-Sep-2010 based on derivatives carry trade and commodity prices. Overall, results for the mean equation for the volatility in USD/AUD exchange rate highlights: (1) AUD is influenced by the carry trade activities (i.e. currency swap interest rate) and as expected, the significance of carry trade is elevated in periods of rising Australian interest rates; (2) international commodity prices have significant bearing on the USD/AUD exchange rate variability; and (3) Australian stock prices and 3-year bond yields also seems to influence USD/AUD. On the contrary, the conditional variance of the USD/AUD exchange rate illustrates: (1) overwhelming evidence of persistence in shocks; (2) magnitude of the conditional variance is significant; and (3) in large part, absence of any asymmetric behaviour. Finally, the essay (Chapter 4) on exchange rate policy investigates the crucial role of the Australian Dollar as a shock absorber or source of shock relative to its four major trading partners; the U.S., the U.K., Japan and New Zealand. This essay employs a small Keynesian open macroeconomic framework popularised by Clarida & Gali (1994), and utilises a Bayesian Time Varying Parameter Vector Autoregression (TVP-VAR) framework with stochastic volatility to derive time varying impulse response. It demonstrates that the Australian real exchange rate acts as a shock absorber relative to the U.S. and Japanese real exchange rates, while it is the source of shock relative to the U.K. and New Zealand real exchange rates. This study also provides a novel method of investigation and results for the Australian real exchange rate, which outlines the heterogeneity of the Australia real exchange rate across time and relative to its trading partners.
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Milisi, Busisiwe. "The exchange rate volatility and inflation rate in South Africa." Thesis, Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10948/9151.
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The study examines exchange rate volatility and inflation in South Africa over the period of 1987- 2012 using annual data. With the use of VAR, ADF unit root testing and Johansen for cointegration the study examines the relationship between exchange rate volatility and inflation in South Africa. The study also examines other variables, which are Money Supply, Trade Openness, Real Interest Rate and Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP), if they had an impact on inflation and had contributed significantly to inflation during the period under review. All macroeconomic variables were identified to have an impact on inflation in the long-run. Exchange rate volatility was identified as the main variable that had substantial impact on inflation rate. The study recommended the current system used by the authorities was working well, as they can pursue a countercyclical macro policy, but also continue to manage the float by intervening to stabilize the exchange rate. The reason for this recommendation was that because one of the advantages of floating exchange rate is freeing internal policy, with a floating exchange rate, balance of payments disequilibrium would be rectified by a change in the external price of the currency. However, with a fixed rate, curing a deficit could involve a general deflationary policy resulting in unpleasant consequences for the whole economy such as unemployment.
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Price, Diana N. "Theoretical and empirical issues in the choice of exchange rate policy." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 1990. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/30633.
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Part I of this thesis is concerned with providing an explanation for the absence of an international monetary agreement since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods system. The analysis centers around the proposition that the potential gains are not sufficiently large to induce countries to engage in cooperative exchange rate management. The analysis is undertaken in the context of a two country model in which the monetary authorities of each country intervene in the foreign exchange market with the objective of stabilizing domestic consumption and prices. Non-cooperative behaviour is characterized in terms of the equilibrium intervention strategies associated with Cournot and Stackelberg games, as well as a game in which each player correctly anticipates the responses of his opponent; the principal form of cooperative behaviour considered is the agreement to participate in joint loss minimization. The results of the numerical simulations, used to compare the losses associated with cooperative and non-cooperative intervention strategies, support the proposition that countries behave non-cooperatively because the gains from policy coordination are too small to extract a cooperative effort.
The primary objective of Part II is to formulate a quantitative measure of
exchange market intervention that- can be used to classify exchange rate practices
and to conduct empirical studies of exchange rate policy. The measure that is
proposed in this study is an index of exchange market intervention which
characterizes exchange rate policy as the proportion of exchange market pressure
that is alleviated by an endogenous change in the domestic money supply. Exchange
market pressure is measured using a model-consistent generalization of the Girton
and Roper (1977) formulation. In order to provide a basis of comparison for future
empirical work, the proposed measures of exchange market pressure and exchange
market intervention are calculated quarterly for Canada, Germany, Japan, United Kingdom, and the United States over the period 1973(I) - 1984(IV). Estimates are obtained for each country on the basis of a multiple-partner small open economy model as well as a model in which interdependence among trading partners is explicitly incorporated.Arts, Faculty of
Vancouver School of Economics
Graduate
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Rowbotham, Nicola Kim. "Exchange rate policy and export performance in efficiency-driven economies." Diss., University of Pretoria, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/2263/27022.
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Increased globalisation of trade has led a growing number of firms to search beyond their traditional domestic markets. As a result, export-led growth has gained focus, particularly amongst industrialising nations, or so-called efficiencydriven economies, in search of economic growth. Policy prescriptions have generally proposed a weakening of the exchange rate as a means to stimulate exports; whilst an exchange rate appreciation would be detrimental to exports and encourage imports. Past research on this topic has been mixed.This research examines the impact of exchange rate on export performance in a sample of nine efficiency-driven economies for the period from 1990 to 2009. These economies, with floating exchange rate arrangements, include Brazil, the Dominican Republic, Malaysia, Mauritius, Mexico, Peru, South Africa, Thailand and Turkey. Panel data models using a fixed-effects method have been applied in this research. The research finds that a weakening of the exchange rate does not necessarily improve export performance. To the contrary, export growth is associated with a stronger, relative exchange rate. The lag effect of exchange rate movement on export performance is slightly more pronounced, but remains statistically insignificant.Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2011.
Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS)
unrestricted
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Tirelli, Patrizio. "Monetary and fiscal policy, the exchange rate and foreign wealth /." New York ; St. Martin's press ; Basingstoke ; London : Macmillan, 1993. http://catalogue.bnf.fr/ark:/12148/cb373928383.
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O'Mahony, Angela Julie. "Monetary regimes : the interrelated choice of monetary policy and the exchange rate /." Diss., Connect to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC IP addresses, 2003. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p3083461.
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Poon, Ching-man Betty. "Monetary policy in Hong Kong under the linked exchange rate system." Hong Kong : [University of Hong Kong], 1991. http://sunzi.lib.hku.hk/hkuto/record.jsp?B13005704.
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Ho, Siu-yin, and 何少燕. "An evaluation of the linked exchange rate system." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 1991. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31976542.
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Ryou, Hyunjoo. "Exchane Rate Dynamics under Financial Market Frictions- Exchange rate regime, capital market openness and monetary policy -Electoral cycle of exchange rate in Korea : The Trilemma in Korea." Phd thesis, Université de Cergy Pontoise, 2012. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00838836.
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-Exchange Rate Dynamics under Financial Market FrictionsThis paper extends Dornbusch's overshooting model by proposing "generalized interest parity condition", which assumes sluggish adjustment on the asset market. The exchange rate model under the generalized interest parity condition is able to reproduce the delayed overshooting of nominal exchange rates and the hump-shaped response to monetary shocks of both nominal and real exchange rates.-Electoral Cycle of Exchange Rate in KoreaThis paper empirically investigates the real exchange rate behavior around elections in Korea. We find that the real exchange rate depreciates more before the elections but there is no clear pattern found after the elections. Interestingly, this result is the opposite of the electoral cycle found in Latin American countries. To explain this results we should consider the difference between economic backgrounds of Korea and Latin American countries.-Exchange Rate Regime, Capital Market Openness and Monetary Policy; The Trilemma in KoreaThis paper tests the trilemma proposition by performing an empirical study of Korea. Korea has distinct periods of all combinations of exchange rate regime and capital market openness in trilemma: pegged exchange rate regime under capital controls, pegged exchange rate regime under free capital mobility, and floating exchange rate regime under free capital mobility. We check whether monetary autonomy exists in each of the three different combinations. We find that monetary autonomy existed over the periods with capital controls and the periods with floating exchange rate regime. For the periods with the pegged exchange rate regime and free capital mobility, monetary autonomy was limited. In addition, we identify that just before the financial crisis the government pursued autonomic monetary policy under pegged exchange rate regime and free capital mobility, thereby defying the trilemma.
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Bersch, Julia. "Financial globalization and the implications for monetary and exchange rate policy." Diss., lmu, 2009. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bvb:19-96579.
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Sirage, Besiro K. "Exchange rate policy and export performance : a case study of Ethiopia." Thesis, Lancaster University, 1995. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.268114.
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Fornaro, Luca. "Essays on monetary and exchange rate policy in financially fragile economies." Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 2013. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/789/.
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In my thesis I study policy interventions, with particular attention to monetary and exchange rate policy, in financially fragile economies. The thesis is composed of four chapters, and each chapter deals with different forms of policy interventions and different dimensions of financial fragility. However, the four chapters share a common message: appropriately designed policies can play a key role in improving macroeconomic performance in economies vulnerable to the risk of financial crises. In the first chapter I consider the role of the exchange rate regime in determining the adjustment to episodes of global deleveraging. To achieve this goal, I develop a framework for understanding the international dimensions of episodes of debt deleveraging. During an episode of international deleveraging world consumption demand is depressed and the world interest rate is low, reflecting a high propensity to save. If exchange rates are allowed to float, deleveraging countries can depreciate their nominal exchange rate to increase production and mitigate the fall in consumption associated with debt reduction. The key insight is that in a monetary union this channel of adjustment is shut off, and therefore the falls in consumption demand and in the world interest rate are amplified. Hence, monetary unions are especially prone to hit the zero lower bound on the nominal interest rate and enter a liquidity trap during deleveraging. In a liquidity trap deleveraging gives rise to a union-wide recession, which is particularly severe in high-debt countries. The model suggests several policy interventions that mitigate the negative impact of deleveraging on output in monetary unions. In the second chapter, I consider another policy that can be useful in managing episodes of debt deleveraging: debt relief. As illustrated by the analysis in the first chapter, deleveraging can push the economy into a liquidity trap characterized by involuntary unemployment and low inflation. A debt relief policy, captured by a transfer of wealth from creditors to debtors, increases aggregate demand, employment and output. Debt relief may benefit creditors as well as debtors and lead to a Pareto improvement in welfare. The benefits from a policy of debt relief are greater the more the central bank is concerned with stabilizing inflation. The third chapter considers the role of exchange rate policy in economies in which financial fragility arises because the value of collateral is determined by asset prices. The dependence of collateral on asset prices introduces pecuniary externalities that create scope for policy interventions. In this case, a fundamental trade-off between financial and price stability arises, because the central bank has an incentive to deviate from its traditional objective of granting price stability in order to manipulate asset prices and collateral. The main result is thus that the presence of pecuniary externalities in the credit markets makes a narrow focus on price stability sub-optimal. The fourth chapter, joint with Gianluca Benigno, considers the role of foreign reserves in emerging economies characterized by growth externalities and the risk of sudden stops on capital inflows. We present a model that reproduces two salient facts characterizing the international monetary system: Fast growing emerging countries i) Run current account surpluses, ii) Accumulate international reserves and receive net private inflows. We study a two-sector, tradable and non-tradable, small open economy. There is a growth externality in the tradable sector and agents have imperfect access to international financial markets. By accumulating foreign reserves, the government induces a real exchange rate depreciation and a reallocation of production towards the tradable sector that boosts growth. Financial frictions generate imperfect substitutability between private and public debt flows so that private agents do not perfectly offset the government policy. The possibility of using reserves to provide liquidity during crises amplifies the positive impact of reserve accumulation on growth. The optimal reserve management entails a fast rate of reserve accumulation, as well as higher growth and larger current account surpluses compared to the economy with no policy intervention. The model is also consistent with the negative relationship between inflows of foreign aid and growth observed in low-income countries.
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Poon, Ching-man Betty, and 潘靜敏. "Monetary policy in Hong Kong under the linked exchange rate system." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 1991. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31976700.
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Kamamkhudza, Charity. "Malawi’s trilemma: monetary policy independence, exchange rate stability and financial integration." Thesis, Rhodes University, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10962/41634.
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Malawi has, in the last few decades, undergone several reforms relating to monetary, exchange rate and financial integration policies in a bid to achieve sustainable economic growth. Despite these reforms, however, the country has barely attained desirable macroeconomic performance. This study sets out to establish if the need for these policy reforms is due to the fact that the country is constrained from the simultaneous achievement of optimal levels of monetary policy independence, exchange rate stability and financial integration, as postulated by the ‘trilemma’. The trilemma is evaluated using an approach introduced by Aizenman et al. (2008), in which the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method is applied to a model in which a constant is regressed on indices constructed for the policy intermediate goals; the results indicate that the trilemma is a binding constraint in Malawi and that the largest trade-off is between exchange rate stability and financial integration. Given these constraints, the study also considers the combination of the trilemma intermediate policy goals that has been dominant in the country in the last three decades, using predicted values from the model and a graphical analysis to explore this objective. The analysis reveals that Malawi has, on average, prioritised exchange rate stability and monetary policy independence at the expense of financial integration. The study also assesses how the trilemma intermediate policy goals affect macroeconomic performance, specifically regarding output growth rate and inflation. The results reveal that exchange rate stability is associated with faster output growth, financial integration is associated with higher inflation, and that monetary policy independence is not a significant factor. The results emphasise the importance of consistent stability of the exchange rate if Malawi is to achieve faster and sustainable economic growth. Given this, policy makers must be cautious, as the current floating exchange rate regime, combined with financial integration, could lead to slow growth and high inflation.
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Adolfson, Malin. "Monetary policy and exchange rates : breakthrough of pass-through." Doctoral thesis, Stockholm : Economic Research Institute, Stockholm School of Economics (Ekonomiska forskningsinstitutet vid Handelshögsk.) (EFI), 2001. http://www.hhs.se/efi/summary/586.htm.
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Zhou, D. D. "Evaluating the extent of real exchange rate misalignment in China." Thesis, Coventry University, 2009. http://curve.coventry.ac.uk/open/items/c10023aa-c67b-7bb5-960a-7d97454a6248/1.
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The dissertation investigates the issues pertaining to China’s fixed exchange rate policy and attempts to appraise the case for greater exchange rate flexibility. The thesis addresses three objectives: First, a critical appraisal of China’s exchange rate policy in the light of theoretical and empirical literature supporting greater flexibility in exchange rate; second, it builds a monetary dual exchange rate model and analyses in a dynamic theoretical framework the impact of nominal demand and price shocks due to over and undervalued currency. Third, using Chinese macroeconomic data it empirically examines the factors determining China’s real exchange rate fluctuations. After presenting a brief history of China’s exchange rate policy in the post-war period, an assessment of China’s fixed exchange rate policy is made, including the costs of maintaining its current peg. It is argued that the literature on China’s exchange rate regime has not reached a consensus, and further theoretical arguments are appraised regarding the reluctance to move to a more flexible exchange rate regime. A theoretical dual exchange rate monetary model, in the spirit of Flood and Marion (1983), is then developed to analyse the dynamics in the responses to nominal and real shocks. This provides a theoretical basis for analysing the underlying working mechanism and policy implications under some degree of capital control, to resemble the Chinese exchange rate regime. In the light of the theoretical analysis, empirical research is conducted using a structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) model to examine the effects of real exchange rate fluctuations to nominal and real shocks (represented by inflation and real GDP), in order to determine the case for exchange rate flexibility. Both the theoretical and empirical analyses complement to inform the ongoing debate on whether the current exchange rate regime in China should be made more flexible, and whether a more flexible regime is appropriate in stabilising the effects of macroeconomic shocks. The empirical findings reveal that the responses of the real exchange rate to nominal IX demand and real supply shocks are consistent with a managed exchange rate system that currently operates in China. In particular, the results show that, as China has been under a fixed exchange rate arrangement for much of the estimation period, the real exchange rate appreciates immediately in response to a positive nominal shock. The use of quarterly Chinese data in this study, which no previous study on China has used, makes it possible to identify to a greater degree the initial appreciation impact of a positive nominal shock on the real exchange rate, although the results are generally consistent with the previous study by Wang (2004) using annual data. The study finds that supply shocks are dominant in the fluctuations of output growth, and while both nominal and real shocks are significant the nominal contributes more than real shocks in real exchange rate fluctuations. Overall, these findings are consistent with other studies for developing countries and support a case for greater exchange rate flexibility for China.
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Le, Hong-Giang. "An exploration of exchange rate regimes for Vietnam." Phd thesis, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/151510.
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Nguyen, Van Ngai. "The impact of trade and exchange rate policies on Vietnamese agriculture." Phd thesis, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/148128.
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Nguyen, Ngoc Thanh. "The reforms of monetary and exchange rate policies in Vietnam during the 1990s." Phd thesis, 2001. http://hdl.handle.net/1885/146054.
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Mai, Thu Hien [Verfasser]. "Solutions for exchange rate policy of transition economy of Vietnam / vorgelegt von Mai Thu Hien." 2007. http://d-nb.info/990046400/34.
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Wang, Li-Fan, and 王立帆. "The Effect of American Quantitative Easing Policy on Foreign Exchange Rate in the Emerging Asian Countries- A Case Study of Vietnam, Thai, Philippines and Indonesians." Thesis, 2014. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/tjt659.
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碩士國立高雄應用科技大學
財富與稅務管理系碩士在職專班
102
The subprime mortgage crisis triggered the financial crisis in the U.S. in 2008. In order to stabilize the financial market, the Federal Reserve took several measures during this period and one of the critical monetary policies was the Quantitative Easing (QE). After QE was implemented in the States, the monetary policies started to turn loose in Asian countries as well. This inevitably caused Asian nations difficult to sustain their economic growth and at the same time, to stabilize inflation influenced both domestically and internationally within a reasonable range. This Study investigates the effects of QEs in U.S. on the exchange rate movements of Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines and Indonesia by using linear regression model. The result shows that after the implementation of Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy, it not only has a significant influence on exchange rate movement in Thailand and Indonesia which are the emerging countries that are more opened to the flexible foreign exchange market. On the other hand, Vietnam and the Philippines do not show as much influences due to the foreign exchange intervention and protective policies.
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Liao, Chieh-Ju, and 廖捷如. "The Consistency of Exchange Rate Policy with WTO Agreements–Analysis of China’s Exchange Rate Policy." Thesis, 2014. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/7y2sx5.
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碩士國立交通大學
科技法律研究所
102
The thesis centers on the consistency of undervalued exchange rate policy with WTO agreements. This research deals with the issue of whether an undervalued exchange rate policy constitutes a prohibited export subsidy under SCM or violates article XV of GATT. This thesis will take China’s exchange rate policy as an example. Chinese currency, Renminbi, has appreciated more than 30% against the dollar since 2005. However, it is estimated that the Renminbi should have been appreciated more significantly considering the significant growth rate of GDP, huge amount of hot money and massive amount of foreign reserve income. The IMF affirmed this presumption by labeling Renminbi as “moderately undervalued” currency. The United States, one of China’s biggest trading partners, thus publicly alleges that China’s undervalued exchange rate stimulates export and constitutes a prohibited export subsidy under WTO agreements. The research is based on the presumption that Renminbi is undervalued and examines if this undervalued exchange rate policy meets the requirement of a prohibited export subsidy under SCM. This thesis also analyzes the possibility of utilizing GATT Article 15 paragraph 9(a) as a justification if there’s any violation of SCM. The research further discussed the cooperation between WTO and IMF regarding exchange arrangement under GATT Article 15 paragraph 2. Lastly, this paper discusses if an undervalued exchange rate policy frustrates the intent of GATT under GATT Article 15 paragraph 4. This thesis concludes that China’s exchange rate policy does not constitute a prohibited export subsidy, while it is possible to frustrate the intent of GATT and thus violates Article XV paragraph 4 of GATT.
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Uyen, Nguyen Le Nhu, and 阮梨如鴛. "Dynamic Linkages between Exchange Rate, Interest Rate and Stock Price in Vietnam." Thesis, 2011. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/86415000425602997528.
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碩士樹德科技大學
金融與風險管理系碩士班
99
A procedure is analyzing the dynamic linkages between exchange rate, interest rate and stock price in Vietnam by an empirical approach using daily data from July 2005 to December 2010 with Multi-variable Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (MGARCH) model. The results reveal that the prior stock return positively impact on stock return in the future, conversely, the prior interest return negatively influence the later one. Furthermore, in the variance-covariance equations, the significance of coefficients of stock and interest return for own innovations proved the presence of ARCH effects and the importance of coefficients for volatility spillovers to the individual returns produced an evidence of GARCH effects. This paper could not be achieved if I have not had valuable comments, advices and sizable supports from many professors and my family. For this opportunity, I would like to appreciate to all of them. First of all, I would like to express my profound gratitude to Dr. WU, JUPING, my supervisor, for her noticeable supports, commitment guidance, her spare time to read and comment in my draft throughout each stage of this dissertation. Her significant helps and incessantly efforts became the most particular motivation for me to accomplish this study in time. I am also grateful to all professors who gave me lots of interesting suggestions and meaningful advices to go the right way to have such valuable paper. In addition, I gratefully acknowledge Shute University and Foreign Trade University for organizing this useful MBA program. Finally, I would like to thank my beloved family for the huge physical and mental supports, without their encouragement I could not complete this program. Any enquiries, suggestions or comments for this paper is always welcome.
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Chou, Yu-Shian, and 周雨賢. "Exchange rate and optimal trade policy." Thesis, 2008. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/6ef35w.
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碩士東吳大學
國際經營與貿易學系
96
The purpose of this dissertation is to explore how the trade countries’ governments modify their optimal trade policies when the fluctuation of exchange rates is taken into account. Two representative models in the “strategic trade theory” were selected to be analyzed. First one is the export model in which two firms from different countries, export to the third country and engage in Cournot quantity competition. Another is an import model in which a foreign firm exports to domestic country and engages in Cournot quantity competition with a domestic firm. The main findings of this dissertation are as follows. In the export model, home government should raise the optimal export subsidy and the foreign government would decrease its optimal export subsidy when home currency devaluate solely. Home currency devaluate solely will raise the real subsidy for the third country’s consumers. The two export countries’ optimal subsidy will rise if the third country’s currency was unilateral revaluation; but reduce the real export subsidy for consumers of the third country. In the import model, the optimal tariffs of home government are the same no matter whether if there exists a competitive domestic firm. A revaluation of home currency raises the optimal import tariff, causes more imports, and makes home consumers better off.
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劉, 佳., and Jia LIU. "The Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Policy of China." Thesis, 2014. https://doi.org/10.15057/26886.
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Zini, Alvaro Antonio. "Exchange rate policy and stabilization in Brazil." 1988. http://catalog.hathitrust.org/api/volumes/oclc/23093587.html.
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CHUNG, HSU CHIH, and 許志忠. "Intertemporal Policy Mix, the Holmes-Smyth Effect, Policy Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Dynamics under Dual Floating Exchange Rate Regimes." Thesis, 2006. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/97619190534868832343.
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Cheng, Shu-Ching, and 鄭淑青. "The Impact of Policy Announcement on Stock Price, Spot Exchange Rate and Forward Exchange Rate." Thesis, 2009. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/78080151205712494327.
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Co, Wei-Yu, and 柯威宇. "The Impact of Tourism Policy and Monetary Policy Announcement on Stock Prices and Exchange Rate： Floating Exchange Rate Regime Model." Thesis, 2013. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/10143528180740945748.
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