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Journal articles on the topic 'Exit Poll'

Author: Grafiati

Published: 4 June 2021

Last updated: 4 February 2022

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1

Panagopoulos, Costas. "Exit Poll Sponsorship and Response Intentions." Journal of Politics and Law 9, no. 4 (May 29, 2016): 72. http://dx.doi.org/10.5539/jpl.v9n4p72.

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<p>Scholars and practitioners alike are increasingly concerned about growing and differential rates of nonresponse in exit polls. In this paper, I examine how exit poll sponsorship affects response intentions. I leverage an experiment imbedded in a nationally-representative probability sample telephone sample that probed respondents about exit poll participation intentions. The survey, fielded by Opinion Research Corporation for CNN in November 2006, randomly varied whether respondents were informed the exit poll would be conducted by the “television networks,” specifically, or generically, by “some organizations.” The results reveal that respondents are significantly more likely to report they would be likely to participate in exit polls when television networks are explicitly identified as sponsors. These effects are robust across a series of specifications and do not appear to be moderated by key observable attributes including age, gender, race, partisanship or educational attainment. </p>

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Berry, Michael J., and Tony Robinson. "An Entrance to Exit Polling: Strategies for Using Exit Polls as Experiential Learning Projects." PS: Political Science & Politics 45, no. 03 (June 12, 2012): 501–5. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049096512000431.

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AbstractEngaging students in the design, administration, and postelection analysis of an exit poll can be an excellent experiential learning activity. Lelieveldt and Rossen (2009) argue that exit polls are a “perfect teaching tool” because they provide students with a cooperative (rather than competitive) learning experience; help students better connect theory, methodology, and course substance; and allow students to move outside of the classroom by branching out into the community. As professors at the University of Colorado, Denver (UCD), we have organized student exit polling during the 2008 and 2010 elections in the Denver area for research methods and elections classes. Although we have found these exit polls to be rewarding experiences for instructors and students alike, the reality is that conducting an exit poll with a group of polling neophytes, in the confines of a single semester, can be challenging. In this article, we discuss strategies and issues for instructors to consider when using an exit poll as an experiential learning exercise.

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3

Greiner, D. James, and Kevin M. Quinn. "Long Live the Exit Poll." Daedalus 141, no. 4 (October 2012): 9–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/daed_a_00170.

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We discuss the history of the exit poll as well as its future in an era characterized by increasingly effective and inexpensive alternatives for obtaining information. With respect to the exit poll's future, we identify and assess four purposes it might serve. We conclude that the exit poll's most important function in the future should, and probably will, be to provide information about the administration of the franchise and about the voter's experience in casting a ballot. The nature of this purpose suggests that it may make sense for academic institutions to replace media outlets as the primary implementers of exit polls.

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Croco, Sarah E., Elizabeth Suhay, Rachel Blum, Lilliana Mason, Hans Noel, Jonathan Ladd, and Michael A. Bailey. "Student-Run Exit Polls 101." PS: Political Science & Politics 52, no. 2 (March 18, 2019): 361–66. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049096518002330.

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ABSTRACTAs professors, we seek not only to impart knowledge about issues and concepts in American politics but also to engage and inspire students to become more knowledgeable and more active in politics. This article explains how a student-run exit poll conducted on Election Day 2016 accomplished both goals. Seven faculty members from four universities pooled our students and carried out an exit poll in the District of Columbia, Maryland, Virginia, and Ohio. By the time the polls closed, our students had spoken to more than 2,300 respondents, providing a memorable experience and creating a shared dataset that served as the centerpiece for many final class projects. Through this project, students gained hands-on experience in survey design, sampling, research ethics, polling, and data analysis.

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5

Clarkson, Elizabeth. "The Results of Exit Polls in Kansas to Verify Voting Machine Counts in the November 2016 Election." Statistics, Politics and Policy 12, no. 1 (April 14, 2021): 161–94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/spp-2020-0011.

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Abstract Citizens’ exit polls are performed by local voters to verify the official reported election results. Five citizens’ exit polls were run in southeast Kansas during the Nov 8th 2016 election. These exit polls were designed specifically to verify computer generated vote counts and run solely by volunteer labor, all local citizens who were willing to put in the necessary hours on Election Day to conduct the poll and later, to count the results by hand. These exit polls were able to obtain high participation rates resulting in the ability to detect small yet statistically significant differences. All five polling stations surveyed show evidence of multiple statistical anomalies in both the pattern and size of the errors between the official results and exit poll results although biases were not uniformly oriented across sites. The small discrepancies found in the studied races were insufficient to alter the outcomes. Non-response bias and unintentional errors were evaluated as potential causes; those explanations were plausible in some but not all cases. These results show a pattern of discrepancies between the exit polls and computer counted results displaying consistent bias within sites. This would be an expected outcome of a deliberate manipulation of the computer results. While this data doesn’t conclusively prove election interference and manipulation of votes counts, it should be taken seriously as a sign of such interference. Doubts about the accuracy of the reported results are appropriate unless other plausible explanations for the discrepancies can be found.

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6

Busch, Ronald J., and Joel A. Lieske. "Does Time of Voting Affect Exit Poll Results?" Public Opinion Quarterly 49, no. 1 (1985): 94. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/268903.

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7

Ichinose, Daniel. "Polling AAPI Voters." AAPI Nexus Journal: Policy, Practice, and Community 2, no. 2 (2004): 67–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.36650/nexus2.2_67-86_ichinose.

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Exit polls are surveys of voters once they cast their ballot. However, they are often unreliable sources of information on Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) voters. Several community organizations like the Asian Pacific American Legal Center (APALC) in Los Angeles attempts to provide a more accurate exit polling results about AAPI. The methodologies used to conduct the exit poll are noted. To properly conduct polling, it requires tremendous amount of resources such as time, funding, and staff, and is also a very difficult activity to do for a long period of time. Problems outside of the pollsters such as low voter turn out negatively affects the effectiveness of polling. The absentee ballot also renders polling as not wholly accurate since many AAPI due to their voting this way. However polling has plenty of merits as it helps document AAPI voting behavior which can be used for program planning and voting right litigation. Exit poll results are useful in targeting voter education plans. Pollsters are helping depict the emerging AAPI electorate and will also help protect its right to vote.

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8

Bishop, George F., and Bonnie S. Fisher. ""Secret Ballots" and Self-Reports in an Exit-Poll Experiment." Public Opinion Quarterly 59, no. 4 (1995): 568. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/269494.

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9

Curtice, John, Stephen Fisher, Jouni Kuha, and Jonathan Mellon. "Surprise, surprise! (again) The 2017 British general election exit poll." Significance 14, no. 4 (August 2017): 26–29. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1740-9713.2017.01054.x.

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10

Brown, Steven D., David Docherty, Ailsa Henderson, Barry Kay, and Kimberly Ellis-Hale. "Exit Polling in Canada: An Experiment." Canadian Journal of Political Science 39, no. 4 (December 2006): 919–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0008423906060355.

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Abstract. Although exit polling has not been used to study Canadian elections before, such polls have methodological features that make them a potentially useful complement to data collected through more conventional designs. This paper reports on an experiment with exit polling in one constituency in the 2003 Ontario provincial election. Using student volunteers, a research team at Wilfrid Laurier University conducted an exit poll in the bellwether constituency of Kitchener Centre to assess the feasibility of mounting this kind of study on a broader scale. The experiment was successful in a number of respects. It produced a sample of 653 voters that broadly reflected the partisan character of the constituency, and which can hence be used to shed light on patterns of vote-switching and voter motivations in that constituency. It also yielded insights about best practices in mounting an exit poll in the Ontario context, as well as about the potential for using wireless communication devices to transmit respondent data from the field. The researchers conclude that exit polling on a limited basis (selected constituencies) is feasible, but the costs and logistics associated with this methodology make a province-wide or country-wide study unsupportable at present.Résumé. Bien que les sondages “sortie des urnes” n'aient pas été utilisés jusqu'ici dans l'étude des élections au Canada, de tels sondages possèdent certaines caractéristiques qui en font un complément potentiellement très utile des méthodes plus traditionnelles de cueillette des données. Cet article rend compte d'un sondage “sortie des urnes” expérimental effectué dans une circonscription lors de l'élection provinciale de 2003 en Ontario. Utilisant des bénévoles étudiants, une équipe de recherche de l'Université Wilfrid Laurier a conduit un sondage “sortie des urnes” à Kitchener Centre, une circonscription indicatrice de tendance, afin de déterminer la faisabilité de ce type d'étude au niveau fédéral. L'expérience a réussi à plusieurs égards. Elle a fourni un échantillon de 653 électeurs qui reflétaient en gros le caractère partisan de la circonscription, ce qui a rendu possible l'étude des motivations des électeurs et des revirements de vote dans la région. L'expérience a aussi fourni des renseignements sur les pratiques exemplaires concernant l'utilisation des sondages “sortie des urnes” au niveau provincial, ainsi que sur la possibilité d'employer des techniques de communication sans fil pour transmettre les données recueillies des répondants. Les chercheurs ont conclu que les sondages “sortie des urnes” sont réalisables dans un cadre restreint, dans certaines circonscriptions sélectionnées, mais que les coûts et la logistique nécessités par cette méthodologie la rendent actuellement impraticable pour une étude à l'échelle provinciale ou nationale.

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Hrycak, Alexandra. "The “Orange Princess” Runs for President." East European Politics and Societies: and Cultures 25, no. 1 (January 7, 2011): 68–87. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0888325410388409.

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A gender analytic perspective is used to explore the outcomes of the 2010 Ukrainian presidential elections. Gender differences within the Tymoshenko and Yanukovych electorates are assessed at the regional level through exit poll data. Comparisons to the outcome of the 2004 presidential election show that the 2010 elections exhibited very different gendered patterns of electoral support. The exit polls suggest that Tymoshenko lost due to “gender bias”—she failed to receive the support of a substantial number of men who voted for Yushchenko in 2004. Meanwhile, Yanukovych achieved victory despite a substantial decline in support among female voters.

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12

Grimshaw, Scott D., Howard B. Christensen, David B. Magleby, and Kelly D. Patterson. "Twenty Years of the Utah Colleges Exit Poll: Learning by Doing." CHANCE 17, no. 2 (March 2004): 32–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2004.10554898.

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13

Cressey, Daniel. "Scientists say ‘no’ to UK exit from Europe in Nature poll." Nature 531, no. 7596 (March 2016): 559. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/531559a.

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14

Kwak, Jeongae, and Boseung Choi. "A comparison study for accuracy of exit poll based on nonresponse model." Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society 25, no. 1 (January 31, 2014): 53–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.7465/jkdi.2014.25.1.53.

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15

Sokhey, Anand Edward, and Stephen T. Mockabee. "Reexamining Political Discussion and Disagreement in Church Networks: An Exit Poll Assessment." Politics and Religion 5, no. 2 (July 30, 2012): 253–79. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s175504831200003x.

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AbstractThe workplace has been hailed as a fruitful context for encountering difference, but other institutions of adult life — notably the church — have been downplayed, as it has been argued that self-selection produces political homogeneity within these environments. At the same time, much of what scholars know about social influence has been based on relatively blunt measures of disagreement, typically included in surveys conducted over multiple-week spans either before or after the actual voting has taken place. Inspired by work on the survival, loci, and democratic consequences of political disagreement, we survey voters at the moment when the literature would suggest they should be most likely to report agreement: Election Day. Wedding exit poll methodology with items that capture the major dimensions of networks and the content of discussion, we re-examine the contexts in which discussions take place and untangle issue-specific patterns of disagreement. We find evidence that church-based networks fulfill important democratic roles relative to other contexts, exposing individuals to cross-cutting discourse while serving as unique sources of information in the midst of broader electoral environments.

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16

Yoon, Soo-Kyeong, and Jae-Hak Lee. "Instructional Design and Its Application of Statistical Estimation by Using Exit Poll." Institute of Brain-based Education, Korea National University of Education 8, no. 2 (June 29, 2018): 79–89. http://dx.doi.org/10.31216/bdl.2018.8.2.79.

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17

Emery, Jennifer Kelkres, Alison Howard, and Jocelyn Evans. "Teaching Better, Teaching Together: A Coordinated Student Exit Poll Across the States." Journal of Political Science Education 10, no. 4 (October 2, 2014): 471–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15512169.2014.947419.

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18

Tokarska-Bakir, Joanna. "How to Exit the Conspiracy of Silence?" East European Politics and Societies: and Cultures 25, no. 1 (January 7, 2011): 129–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0888325410387640.

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On the subject of the Polish-Jewish postwar relations, this paper deals with the pathology of public discourse known as the “conspiracies of silence” phenomenon (see Eviatar Zerubavel, The Elephant in the Room: Silence and Denial in Everyday Life , 2008). The concept in question may be applied to the Polish historic conditions. It helps to problematize the circumstances in which social conspiracies were accumulating around the Polish-Jewish relations in the postwar period so as to pave the way for analysis of the current difficulties in researching the title issues, particularly those that emerged while using a quantitative and qualitative approach to research Polish attitudes toward Jews. The resulting polemical analysis is made on the basis of a text by one of the most renowned Polish sociologists, Prof. Antoni Sułek. His lecture titled “Ordinary Poles Looking at Jews” was delivered at the University of Warsaw, Poland, on 17 December 2009, within the cycle “Ten Lectures for a New Millennium.” It summarises the Polish twenty-year poll-based researches of Poles’ attitudes towards Jews.

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19

Linek, Lukáš, and Oľga Gyárfášová. "The Role of Incumbency, Ethnicity, and New Parties in Electoral Volatility in Slovakia." Politologický časopis - Czech Journal of Political Science 27, no. 3 (2020): 303–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.5817/pc2020-3-303.

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This paper analyzes electoral volatility in the 2020 Slovak elections at the level of individual voters using exit poll surveys. The availability of exit polls from the previous elections of 2012 and 2016 allows us to put the 2020 election in context and analyze the patterns (and deviances from them) observed across the three elections. Furthermore, the paper summarizes the aggregate volatility since 1992, demonstrating a high level of net volatility with peaks of over 30 percent. As for the individual level, the analysis concentrates on three important issues in volatility research: (1) vote losses of government parties and the incumbent effect; (2) the role of new parties in mobilization of previous non-voters and first-time voters; (3) since Slovakia is a country with a significant Hungarian minority, special attention is given to vote switching by Hungarian voters and more general patterns of ethnic voting.

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20

Sartika Alamsyah, Dwi Putri, Ade Monica Windyanti, and Dwiky Akbar Nugroho. "ANALISIS EFISIENSI PERHITUNGAN SUARA PEMILU DENGAN METODE QUICK COUNT, REAL COUNT DAN EXIT POLL." Mimbar Keadilan 13, no. 2 (July 15, 2020): 229–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.30996/mk.v13i2.3676.

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AbstractIn the implementation of elections that go through a long and rigorous process, it still cannot guarantee that this election is conducted honestly and cleanly. So this is what causes the vote counting stage carrued out by the KPU/KPUD in various regions requires a very long time. The vote count in Indonesia is not only a quick count, one way to recapitulate during the election, but there is a real count and exit poll aslo a way to count the results of the vote. However, of the three types of recapitulation, there are several differences including the method used and the source of data obtained. As a result of this difference, in the percentage information that would implu uncertain information for the public who want to know about the vote count so as to reduce public confidence in the election process going forward. The method used in this study is an empirical research method that is analysing problem data and looking for information directly or using interview methods to complete the data in this study. This research is expected to produce a concrete analysis of three for calculating votes that are more efficient, precise and systematic in notification of information. Keyword: efficiency; incorrect information; three methods of counting votes AbstrakDalam pelaksanaan pemilu yang melalui proses yang panjang dan ketat, masih belum dapat menjamin bahwa pemilu ini dilakukan dengan jujur dan bersih., berbagai metode yang dilakukan oleh para kandidat merupakan faktor dalam terjadinya kecurangan dalam pemilu. Jadi inilah yang menyebabkan proses penghitungan suara yang dilakukan oleh masing-masing KPU/KPUD di berbagai daerah membutuhkan jangka waktu yang sangat lama. Penghitungan suara yang ada di Indonesia tidak hanya penghitungan cepat, salah satu cara untuk melakukan rekapitulasi selama pemilihan, tetapi ada penghitungan riil dan exit poll juga cara untuk menghitung hasil pemungutan suara. Namun, dari ketiga jenis rekapitulasi tersebut, ada beberapa perbedaan, termasuk metode yang digunakan dan sumber data yang diperoleh. Sebagai akibat dari perbedaan ini, dalam informasi persentase tersebut yang akan menyiratkan informasi tidak pasti bagi publik yang ingin tahu tentang perhitungan suara sehingga dapat menurunkan kepercayaan masyarakat dalam proses pemilu kedepan. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode penelitian empiris yaitu mengkaji data permasalahan dan mencari informasi secara langsung atau menggunakan metode wawancara untuk melengkapi data dalam penelitian ini. Penelitian ini diharapkan dapat menghasilkan analisis konkret dari tiga metode untuk menghitung suara yang lebih efisien, tepat dan sistematis dalam pemberitahuan informasi.Kata kunci: efisiensi; informasi; tiga cara perhitungan suara

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Curtice, John, Stephen D. Fisher, and Jouni Kuha. "Confounding the Commentators: How the 2010 Exit Poll Got it (More or Less) Right." Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties 21, no. 2 (May 2011): 211–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/17457289.2011.562612.

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Fisher, Stephen D., Jouni Kuha, and Clive Payne. "Getting it right on the night, again-the 2010 UK general election exit poll." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) 173, no. 4 (September 20, 2010): 699–701. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-985x.2010.00659.x.

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23

NORRANDER, BARBARA. "The Attrition Game: Initial Resources, Initial Contests and the Exit of Candidates During the US Presidential Primary Season." British Journal of Political Science 36, no. 3 (May 17, 2006): 487–507. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0007123406000251.

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In contests for the presidential nominations from the Democratic and Republican parties in the United States, the duration of candidacies determines both the winning candidate (i.e., the one who outlasts his or her opponents) and the amount of intraparty conflict before the nomination is bestowed. This article analyses how strategic considerations lead some candidates to exit the race more quickly than others. Factors which could shape such strategic considerations include initial candidate assets and characteristics (national poll standings, fund-raising totals and occupational background), initial contest outcomes (Iowa and New Hampshire) and structural variables (proportional representation delegate distribution rules, party, front-loaded calendar). Results from a duration model indicate that poll standings, money (in a curvilinear pattern), New Hampshire and Iowa results, occupational backgrounds and the front-loading of the primary calendar shaped the length of candidacies for presidential contestants from 1980 to 2004. Candidates lacking in initial assets or early victories leave the nomination race in a process most resembling a game of attrition.

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Lee, Eun-ju, and Young-won Kim. "Nonresponse Adjustment Methods for the Exit Poll of the 20th National Assembly Election in Korea." Korean Data Analysis Society 19, no. 6 (December 31, 2017): 2957–67. http://dx.doi.org/10.37727/jkdas.2017.19.6.2957.

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Ossowski, Szymon. "Strategie wyborcze Ryszarda Grobelnego i Jacka Jaśkowiaka w ponownym głosowaniu w świetle badań exit poll." Środkowoeuropejskie Studia Polityczne, no. 3 (May 24, 2019): 163–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.14746/ssp.2016.3.7.

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Celem artykułu jest dokonanie analizy strategii wyborczych dwóch kandydatów na urząd prezydenta Poznania, którzy rywalizowali w ponownym głosowaniu podczas wyborów samorządowych w 2014 roku. Autor próbuje odpowiedzieć na pytania: czy Ryszard Grobelny mógł pomiędzy I i II turą odwrócić bieg wydarzeń i zwyciężyć ostatecznie w wyborach i jakie błędy popełnił w ostatnim okresie kampanii, że tak wyraźnie przegrał z Jackiem Jaśkowiakiem? Udzielając odpowiedzi na te pytania, sformułowano dwie hipotezy. Zgodnie z pierwszą, nie da się jednoznacznie stwierdzić, czy Ryszard Grobelny miał szansę na zwycięstwo po tak niskim wyniku w pierwszym głosowaniu, choć wiele wskazuje na to, że klucz do zwycięstwa znajdował się nie tyle w rękach Ryszarda Grobelnego, co w decyzjach innych kandydatów, którzy nie weszli do II tury. Druga hipoteza prowadzi to stwierdzenia, że największym błędem na finiszu kampanii był zwrot urzędującego prezydenta w kierunku elektoratu PiS i Tadeusza Dziuby. Weryfikacja tych hipotez, w szczególności drugiej została przeprowadzona na podstawie analizy badań exit poll, zrealizowanych w wieczór wyborczy podczas ponownego głosowania na urząd prezydenta Poznania przez Gemini na zlecenie Wielkopolskiej Telewizji Kablowej.

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Russell, Scott C., and Eric Henderson. "The 1994 Navajo Presidential Election: Analysis of the Election and Results of an Exit Poll." American Indian Quarterly 23, no. 2 (1999): 23. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1185965.

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Mokrzycki, Michael, Scott Keeter, and Courtney Kennedy. "Cell-Phone-Only Voters in the 2008 Exit Poll and Implications for Future Noncoverage Bias." Public Opinion Quarterly 73, no. 5 (2009): 845–65. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/poq/nfp081.

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Kubisz-Muła, Łukasz. "Zjawisko reelekcji prezydenta miasta w świetle wyników badań exit poll z wyborów samorządowych w Bielsku-Białej." Środkowoeuropejskie Studia Polityczne, no. 1 (May 29, 2019): 117–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.14746/ssp.2016.1.6.

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Celem artykułu jest określenie uwarunkowań reelekcji prezydenta miasta za pomocą badań sondażowych typu exit poll zrealizowanych w dniu elekcji samorządowych z roku 2006 (n=1769) i z roku 2014 (n=1160). Analizy wykazały istotne statystycznie związki między głosowaniem na inkumbenta a wiekiem i kategorią społeczno-ekonomiczną wyborców, deklarowanymi przez nich motywacjami głosowania w wyborach prezydenta miasta (szczególnie jeżeli chodzi o deklarację motywu dokonań) oraz poziomem wykazywanej przez głosujących niechęci wobec zmian. Badania nie ujawniły natomiast związków między głosowaniem za reelekcją a poziomem wiedzy politycznej.

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Balakireva, Olga, Tetiana Bondar, and Dmytro Dmytruk. "Electoral orientation and electorate behavior during the elections of people’s deputies of Ukraine in October 28, 2012." Ukrainian society 2012, no. 4 (2012): 213–38. http://dx.doi.org/10.15407/socium2012.04.213.

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The article analyzes the electoral behavior of voters at the recent parliamentary elections, especialities of the electorate of the main political forces,as well as evaluation of the results by voters. This article also provides a comparative analysis of the results of the exit poll obtained by different methods of data collection: direct survey and imitation of the ballot voting.

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Gherghina, Sergiu, and Mihail Chiru. "Voting after Watching: The Strategic Role of Election Polls." European Review 20, no. 2 (March 30, 2012): 210–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1062798711000548.

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The November 2009 Romanian presidential elections illustrate the process through which media exposure to exit polls during the election day allows strategic voting in the least expected situations (i.e. in the first round of a two-ballot setting). Organized in a two-round system in which the first two competitors qualify for the second round, these elections display one unsolved dilemma. The difference registered in elections between the two challengers is twice as large as the average support in the pre-election polls (a comparable difference was never registered in post-communist Romania). Our quantitative analysis uses election results from the past two decades and aggregated poll data from 2009 and reveals that a large share of the Romanian electorate avoids wasting votes and casts them for candidates with real winning chances. This article argues that polls presented to the voters, by the media during the elections, made the difference. They were used as electoral strategies to trigger strategic voting and thus promote specific candidates.

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AALTO, MAURI, and KAIJA SEPPÄ. "USEFULNESS, LENGTH AND CONTENT OF ALCOHOL-RELATED DISCUSSIONS IN PRIMARY HEALTH CARE: THE EXIT POLL SURVEY." Alcohol and Alcoholism 39, no. 6 (September 6, 2004): 532–35. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/alcalc/agh090.

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Gyárfášová, Oľga, Miloslav Bahna, and Martin Slosiarik. "Sila nestálosti: volatilita voličov na Slovensku vo voľbách 2016." Středoevropské politické studie Central European Political Studies Review 19, no. 1 (April 1, 2017): 1–24. http://dx.doi.org/10.5817/cepsr.2017.1.1.

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Electoral behavior in Slovakia is characterized by high instability. The study identifies the level of aggregated and individual volatility from a historical perspective, focusing specifically on the 2016 general election. Based on exit-poll data, it argues that the traditional mainstream parties (KDH, SDKU, which failed to surpass the 5% threshold, and also Smer-SD) have lost many of their loyal core voters. The beneficiaries of voter mobility were the new anti-system parties – above all, We Are A Family and the extreme-right People’s Party Our Slovakia (ĽSNS). The paper identifies a specific segment of the electorate – voters who abstained in 2012 but were mobilized for the more recent election. It argues that as the turnouts were about the same in 2012 and 2016, other segments of voters were mobilized in the 2016 election. The fact that a large proportion of these voters decided for the parties We Are A Family and ĽSNS means that they were effectively addressed by a protest, anti-establishment alternative. Based on exit-poll data, the study argues that the level of abstention in the 2012 general election (excluding first-time voters) was the strongest predictor of voter preference for these two parties. Moreover, the extreme-right ĽSNS has been very successful in attracting first-time voters.

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Swyngedouw, Marc, and Roeland Beerten. "Cognitieve en affectieve motieven van partijkeuze : De nationale verkiezingen van 21 mei 1995." Res Publica 38, no. 3-4 (December 31, 1996): 555–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.21825/rp.v38i3-4.18612.

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The exit-poll survey of May 21, 1995, the day of the national election, contained after the question of the actual voting behaviour for the Chamber, an open-ended question asking the motives of this voting behaviour. 3547 voters were questioned in the Flemish part of Belgium. Because the exit-poll questioning was done on election day, the voters could not be influenced by the election results and the explanations given by experts in the media. Categorisation of the answers was done by content analysis. The categorisation scheme was developed on the basis of the existing theories of voting behaviour. On this basis an overview is given of the cognitive and affective spontaneous motives the voters are given for their voting behaviour. The inter rater reliability is very high (Kappa: 0.82). With a HlCLASS analysis a motive profile for every party is developed. The results indicate that party identification in a broad sense is still one of the most important explanations ofvoting behaviour. But they also make clear that the stability in voting behaviour is very unsure for an important group ofvoters. The two sources of instability are short term ad hoc motives and a-politic or anti-politie motives among a still growing group of voters.

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Wright, Gerald C., and Michael B. Berkman. "Candidates and Policy in United States Senate Elections." American Political Science Review 80, no. 2 (June 1986): 567–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1958274.

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This analysis demonstrates that policy issues play an important role in the selection of members of Congress. We differ with the conclusion of much of the existing research on congressional elections, which indicates that policy considerations are of minor importance. We have conducted an analysis of the 1982 U.S. Senate elections, drawing on data from the CBS News/New York Times 1982 congressional poll and from 23 statewide exit polls. We demonstrate that (1) candidates behave as though they believe issues are important to voters; (2) candidates' policy positions systematically influence voters' decisions; and (3) candidates' issue positions and voters' evaluations of the president and the economy interact to provide clear patterns of policy effects on Senate election outcomes. Policy effects are substantial and systematic in Senate elections, and cannot be omitted if we are to appreciate the importance of congressional elections in the national policy-making process.

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Rickards, Guy. "London, Purcell Room: Inscape – the UK and Eire Composition Platform." Tempo 57, no. 224 (April 2003): 50–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0040298203280153.

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The final round of the second ‘Inscape’ competition, brainchild of violinist Adam Summerhayes, took place in the Purcell Room on 27 November 2002. The award structure is three-fold: a jury prize, deliberated over several months from the preliminary entry phase through to the final award; a critics' prize, decided on the night by a panel of four critics who had had access to the seven finalist pieces a week or so beforehand; and an audience prize, made up of an exit poll after the seven finalists had each been played.

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Gilbert, Dennis. "Social Class and Voter Preference in Recent Mexican Elections." Mexican Studies/Estudios Mexicanos 28, no. 2 (2012): 327–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/msem.2012.28.2.327.

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The influence of social class on the decisions of Mexican voters is, according to recent literature, modest and irrelevant. In this paper I reassess the role of class in the presidential elections of 2000 and 2006. After discussing how social class should be conceptualized and measured in election surveys, I analyze exit poll data from these two elections. The results show that class is a potent force in Mexican elections and that the middle class, in particular, has played a critical role in the transformation of Mexican politics.

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Escobar, Cristina, Renelinda Arana, and James A. McCann. "Assessing Candidates at Home and Abroad: A Comparative Analysis of Colombian Expatriates in the 2010 Presidential Elections." Latin American Politics and Society 56, no. 2 (2014): 115–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1548-2456.2014.00228.x.

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AbstractThis article examines candidate favorability among Colombian expatriates and Colombians in the home country in the 2010 Colombian presidential elections. It analyzes the influence of several socioeconomic, migratory, mobilizing, and contextual factors on candidate appraisal using a large exit poll conducted at Colombian consulates in five cities in the United States and Europe and five cities with high emigration rates in Colombia. Aside from differences in candidate favorability stemming from socioeconomic variables (education, income, and religious affiliation), Colombians living abroad largely evaluate candidates in ways similar to Colombians living in the country.

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Hlavaty, Helena N., Mohamed A. Hussein, Peter Kiley-Bergen, Liuxufei Yang, and Paul M. Sommers. "Who Really Voted for President Obama in 2008 and 2012?" Journal of Student Research 4, no. 1 (February 1, 2015): 104–11. http://dx.doi.org/10.47611/jsr.v4i1.200.

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The authors use simple bilinear regression on statewide exit poll data to gauge the popularity of President Barack Obama in election years 2008 and 2012 among voters in four age groups (18 to 29 year-olds; 30 to 44 year-olds; 45 to 64 year-olds; and voters 65 and older) and three income groups (under $50,000; $50,000 to $100,000; and voters earning more than $100,000). While there was little change in his popularity among voters in all age groups, Obama’s popularity with the poorest group of voters (those earning less than $50,000) took a noticeable hit in 2012.

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Ziegler, Stephen J., and Robert A. Jackson. "Who's not afraid of Proposal B?An analysis of exit-poll data from Michigan's vote on physician-assisted suicide." Politics and the Life Sciences 23, no. 1 (March 2004): 42–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.2990/1471-5457(2004)23[42:wnaopb]2.0.co;2.

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Cargile, Ivy A. M., and Lisa Pringle. "Context Not Candidate Sex: A Case Study of Female Vote Choice for Mayor." Urban Affairs Review 56, no. 6 (July 9, 2019): 1659–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1078087419861697.

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It is expected that women who run for office will receive significantly more support from women relative to male voters. However, evidence for this gender affinity has been mixed. In fact, recent experimental studies, and elections, have not found it to exist for female candidates. To test the presence of gender affinity, we examine the case where voters have the opportunity to elect the first female mayor in a major US city. Using exit poll data, we find that women (and men) who cited gender as an important quality in choosing a candidate were significantly more likely to support the female candidate, but only a small portion of voters felt gender was the most important candidate quality. For the majority of women, we find that there were confounding factors, such as uncertainty of the female candidate’s leadership skills and issue positions, which prevented her from gaining the majority she needed to win.

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McCaskill, John, Julie Haworth, and James Harrington. "A Case Study of Public Trust, Collective Action, and Water." Journal of Public Administration and Governance 9, no. 1 (February 12, 2019): 30. http://dx.doi.org/10.5296/jpag.v9i1.14129.

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Public trust is a critical component in the governance of public resources. The structure of that governance can have a profound impact on the level of trust citizens have in the way resources are allocated. This study relates the findings of an exit poll conducted during the primaries for the 2016 presidential elections. The questions related to the level of trust voters had regarding their local government and their subsequent attitudes toward the water conservation messaging from those governments. The findings support national survey findings that citizens in the United States have a high level of trust in local government, which enables longer-term solutions to collective action problems.

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Norpoth, Helmut, and Thomas Gschwend. "Chancellor Model Picks Merkel in 2013 German Election." PS: Political Science & Politics 46, no. 03 (June 21, 2013): 481–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1049096513000802.

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In the German national election this fall, based on the forecast of the Chancellor Model, the governing coalition will score a resounding victory. Chancellor Angela Merkel enjoys a high approval rating, which puts her at a 2-1 advantage over the challenger, Peer Steinbrück. Although Germany is not a presidential system, where voters elect the chief policymaker, chancellor support has proved to be a strong predictor of vote choice in German national elections. Our forecast model also includes long-term partisanship, which provides a broad base for the governing parties in this election, and length of tenure, which exacts a modest penalty after two terms of office. Since its premiere in 2002, the model has predicted the winner in each election. In a case of perhaps beginner's luck, the 2002 forecast scored a bull's-eye with 47.1%, the exact share of the governing parties; the forecast was posted three months before Election Day. No poll or other model, not even the Election-Day exit polls, came close to this performance; in fact, most people predicted a defeat for Schröder's red-green coalition (Norpoth and Gschwend 2003).

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Xie, Yijing, Edward McNeil, Yancun Fan, Virasakdi Chongsuvivatwong, Xingsheng Zhao, and Hutcha Sriplung. "Quality of Respiratory Infection Disease Prevention in Outpatient and Emergency Departments in Hospitals in Inner Mongolia, China: An Exit Poll Survey." Risk Management and Healthcare Policy Volume 13 (June 2020): 501–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.2147/rmhp.s248772.

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Davison, Donald. "“Family Values Don’t Stop at the Rio Grande . . .”: Can the Republican Party Convert Hispanic Voters?" American Review of Politics 37, no. 1 (January 31, 2020): 49–75. http://dx.doi.org/10.15763/issn.2374-779x.2020.37.1.49-75.

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As the Hispanic community becomes increasingly important in American politics there are competing views about whether they can be converted to the Republican Party. One perspective argues that Hispanics’ religion and traditional social values makes them natural constituents of the Republican Party. Alternatively, Hispanics are primarily concerned about issues promoting their well-being and topics such as moral values or religion are private. We use a novel approach to test whether traditional social values might attract Hispanic voters to the Republican Party. Using exit poll results for ballot propositions on moral issues from Arizona, Colorado, and Florida we find weak evidence that traditional values will convert Hispanics to the Republican Party. Instead, our results indicate that traditional social values issues reinforce the polarization between the two parties.

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45

Martínez, Gustavo, and Miguel Ángel López. "El exit poll: ¿un riesgo innecesario? Algunas reflexiones en torno o la responsabilidad informativa de los medios de comunicación durante las elecciones." Cuadernos.info, no. 10 (1995): 103–23. http://dx.doi.org/10.7764/cdi.10.294.

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Strate, John, Timothy Kiska, and Marvin Zalman. "Who Favors Legalizing Physician-Assisted Suicide? The Vote on Michigan's Proposal B." Politics and the Life Sciences 20, no. 2 (September 2001): 155–63. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s073093840000544x.

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At the November 1998 general election, Michigan citizens were given the opportunity to vote on Proposal B, an initiative that would have legalized physician-assisted suicide (PAS). PAS initiatives also have been held in Washington State, California, Oregon, and Maine, with only Oregon's passing. We use exit poll data to analyze the vote on Proposal B. Attributes associated with social liberalism—Democratic Party identification, less frequent church attendance, more education, and greater household income—led to increased odds of a “yes” vote. Attributes associated with social conservatism—Republican Party identification and frequent church attendance—led to decreased odds of a “yes” vote. Similar to the abortion issue, PAS's supporters strongly value personal autonomy, whereas its opponents strongly value the sanctity of life. Voter alignments like those in Michigan will likely appear in other states with the initiative process if PAS reaches their ballots.

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Benjamin, Andrea, and Alexis Miller. "Picking Winners: How Political Organizations Influence Local Elections." Urban Affairs Review 55, no. 3 (October 12, 2017): 643–74. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1078087417732647.

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Endorsements have become a part of most election cycles. They come from a variety of sources (civic organizations, elected officials, newspapers, etc.) and are intended to signal voters that one candidate is preferential to another. Yet, there is still a lot that we do not know about endorsements. In this article, we provide insight into the process of how organizations and newspapers endorse candidates, provide evidence that demonstrates candidates believe these endorsements are important, and test the claim that voters are aware of these endorsements even when controlling for factors such as partisanship, ideology, and education. We also test the claim that issue positions explain vote choice better than endorsements. We rely on interview data and exit poll data to test our claims. Using data from an at-large municipal election, in which voters selected up to three candidates, we find that awareness of endorsements explains vote choice better than issues.

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Davydov, Sergey G., and Nadezhda V. Ademukova. "On the History of Mass Media Sociology in Russia: VGTRK’s Audience Research Agency and its Research (1992–2003)." Sociological Journal 25, no. 4 (2019): 163–83. http://dx.doi.org/10.19181/socjour.2019.25.4.6824.

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During the 1990’s and 2000’s audience research departments at broadcasting companies and advertising agencies played a serious role in the development of Russian sociology of media. One such subsidiary is VGTRK’s Audience Research Agency, founded by media manager and journalist A.G. Bystritsky, and which for a long time was run by sociologist A.V. Sharikov. The tasks of the Agency have repeatedly changed for 12 incomplete years of its work. They included secondary analysis of the results of TV audience measurement, expert surveys, audience qualitative studies, research expeditions to the Russian regions, etc. A special place among the Agency projects is held by the first exit poll in the history of Russian sociology (1993). Examined are the main periods and lines of activity of this subsidiary, its projects and the publications based upon them. Information is provided about the leading experts who participated in the agency’s activities throughout the years of its existence.

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HANKINSON, MICHAEL. "When Do Renters Behave Like Homeowners? High Rent, Price Anxiety, and NIMBYism." American Political Science Review 112, no. 3 (March 9, 2018): 473–93. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s0003055418000035.

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How does spatial scale affect support for public policy? Does supporting housing citywide but “Not In My Back Yard” (NIMBY) help explain why housing has become increasingly difficult to build in once-affordable cities? I use two original surveys to measure how support for new housing varies between the city scale and neighborhood scale. Together, an exit poll of 1,660 voters during the 2015 San Francisco election and a national survey of over 3,000 respondents provide the first experimental measurements of NIMBYism. While homeowners are sensitive to housing’s proximity, renters typically do not express NIMBYism. However, in high-rent cities, renters demonstrate NIMBYism on par with homeowners, despite continuing to support large increases in the housing supply citywide. These scale-dependent preferences not only help explain the deepening affordability crisis, but show how institutions can undersupply even widely supported public goods. When preferences are scale dependent, the scale of decision-making matters.

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Ζαφειρόπουλος, Κώστας. "Ν.Δ. - ΛΑΟΣ : Αλληλεξάρτηση και ποικιλομορφία της εκλογικής τους απήχησης." Ελληνική Επιθεώρηση Πολιτικής Επιστήμης 31 (October 24, 2017): 82. http://dx.doi.org/10.12681/hpsa.14446.

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Το άρθρο μελετά την ενδεχόμενη σχέση, σε επίπεδο εκλογικής επιρροής και απήχησης, ανάμεσα στη Ν.Δ. και τον ΛΑΟΣ για τις εκλογές του 2007. Βασισμένο στα επίσημα εκλογικά αποτελέσματα και στα πρωτογενή δεδομένα ενός exit poll, επιχειρεί να αναλύσει τις μετατοπίσεις ψηφοφόρων ανάμεσα στα δύο κόμματα. Αρχικά ακολουθείται μια γεωγραφική προσέγγιση της ανάλυσης των μετατοπίσεων ώστε να μελετηθεί η γεωγραφική με- ταβλητότητά τους και, στη συνέχεια, γίνεται μια προσπάθεια ερμηνείας των μετακινήσεων αυτών βάσει των απαντήσεων των ψηφοφόρων στην έρευνα εξόδου. Προσδιορίζεται έτσι καταρχάς η μεταβλητότητα των ψηφοφόρων και ακολούθως ο βαθμός εγγύτητας και η θέση τους προς τα κόμματα που τελικά επέλεξαν. Οι ψηφοφόροι που μετακινήθηκαν από τη Ν.Δ. προς τον ΛΑΟΣ εμφανίζουν αυξημένη εγγύτητα προς το κόμμα που τελικά επέλεξαν, είναι όμως σε μεγάλο βαθμό ευμετάβλιητοι. Με αυτό το δεδομένο και βάσει της ακραίας γεωγραφικής μεταβλητότητας των μετακινήσεων, συμπεραίνεται ότι ο ΛΑΟΣ προσπορίστηκε πρώην ψηφοφόρους της Ν.Δ. χωρίς όμως να έχει εξασφαλίσει μια συμπαγή εκλογική βάση.

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