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1
Carton, Joel. "Self-fulfilling expectations of cyclical volatility and learnable rational expectations behavior /." view abstract or download file of text, 1999. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/uoregon/fullcit?p9947970.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Oregon, 1999.<br>Typescript. Includes vita and abstract. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 110-113). Also available for download via the World Wide Web; free to University of Oregon users. Address: http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/uoregon/fullcit?p9947970.
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McGlone, James M. "On rational expectations and dynamic games." Diss., Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 1985. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/52306.
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We consider the problem of uniting dynamic game theory and the rational expectations hypothesis. In doing so we examine the current trend in macroeconomic literature towards the use of dominant player games and offer an alternative game solution that seems more compatible with the rational expectations hypothesis. Our analysis is undertaken in the context of a simple deterministic macroeconomy. Wage setters are the agents in the economy and are playing a non-cooperative game with the Fed. The game is played with the wage setters selecting a nominal wage based on their expectation of the money supply, and the Fed selecta the money supply based on its expectation of the nominal wage.
We find it is incorrect to use the rational expectations hypothesis in conjunction with the assumption that wage setters take the Fed's choices as an exogenous uncontrollable forcing process. We then postulate the use of a Nash equilibrium in which players have rational expectations. This results in an equilibrium that has Stackleberg properties. The nature of the solution is driven by the fact that the wage setter's reaction function is a level maximal set that covers all possible choices of the Fed.
One of the largest problems we encountered in applying rational expectations to a dynamic game is the interdependence of the players' expectations. This problem raises two interesting but as yet unresolved questions regarding the expectations structures of agents: whether an endogenous expectations structure will yield rational expectations; and can endogenous expectations be completely modelled.
In addition to the questions mentioned above we also show that the time inconsistency problem comes from either misspecifying the constraints on the policy maker or an inconsistency in interpreting those constraints. We also show that the Lucas critique holds in a game setting and how the critique relates to the reaction functions of players.<br>Ph. D.
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Baddeley, Michelle. "Rationality, expectations and investment : the theory of Keynes vs. neo-classical theory." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1995. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.435362.
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Williams, Christopher John. "Exchange rates, expectations and international trade : theory and evidence." Thesis, University of Warwick, 1990. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/66916/.
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Unprecedented movements in real exchange rates during the 1980s led to suspicions of instability in the exchange rate - trade relationships in the UK and elsewhere. 1be research in this thesis investigates the sensitivity of UK trade volumes to movements in the real exchange rate, and considers various interpretations of the alleged parameter instability: econometric misspecification; theoretical inadequacy due to the neglect of possible hysteresis effects and/or the neglect of supply side factors; and the Lucas critique effects of a changed policy regime on expectations formation. Against the background of UK experience we examine specific questions of theory and evidence within partial equilibrium frameworks. These share a common concern: considering the (macro economically important) case of mean reversion in real exchange rate expectations. Clapters two and three introduce mean reversion into Dixit's (1989a) theory model of sunk cost hysteresis in trade. This research uses both analytic and numerical methods to characterise solutions with mean reversion in greater detail than elsewhere and uncovers some striking and unexpected results. Most important is the possible reversal of the stochastic and perfect foresight triggers under asymmetric sunk costs which reflects the essential difference between costly reversibility and strict irreversibility in investment Uncertainty does not always delay action, because the possibility of reversal must be allowed for. Chapter four explores the wider significance of the analysis for similar stochastic saddlepoint models such as the analysis of exchange rate target zones. Chapters five and six consider the significance of the short run dynamic specification of quarterly UK manufactured export volumes equations to the reported instability in estimates of the long run competitiveness elasticity in the light of evidence that UK competitiveness measures follow stationary processes within an institutionally identified policy regime. Hausman specification tests, show that the long run competitiveness elasticity is misspecified and underestimated in recent (error correction mechanism) specifications of UK manufactured export volume equations. This inadequacy reflects the omission of long 'smoothing' lags on the competitiveness variable Subsequently, chapter seven considers simulation evidence from the Dixit model as to the potential relevance of such effects to the UK experience under the large shock to competitiveness of 1980-1 but emphasises that the aggregate implications are not clear cut chapter eight considers whether the expectational effects of the 1979 Thatcher government's change in policy regime can be separated out from the other influences at work behind reduced form models but finds that the data do not support the particular approach adopted. Concluding. we emphasise that the potential importance and complexity of expectational factors and theory combines with the our empirical findings to suggest that exchange rate uncertainty may be crucial to trade behaviour and that macroeconomic adjustment may be inhibited by excess exchange rate uncertainty. Overall export performance may also reflect supply factors which are not captured in existing models, such as hysteretic exit. or expected cost changes. But we doubt whether future research will achieve a data consistent aggregate econometric model of UK trade which is fully grounded in appropriate optimising economic theory with realistic adjustment costs. We may have to settle for approximations to the data generation process which do not employ recent theoretical insights. In that event. the use of such models in policy design should be circumscribed due to the possibility of Lucas critique effects, hysteresis mechanisms and supply side factors.
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Timmermann, Allan. "Rational expectations, learning and stock market efficiency." Thesis, University of Cambridge, 1991. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.357750.
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Krause, Alan, and Alan Krause. "Great Expectations and Dodgy Explanations." Thesis, University of Oregon, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/1794/12338.
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How do organizations assess and explain their performance? Prior studies have attempted to demonstrate that, like individuals, organizations take credit for good performance and blame poor performance on influences in their environment. However, these studies have found only a weak relationship between performance and attribution at the level of the firm. This dissertation seeks to elucidate this relationship by conceptualizing firms as social agents and by combining aspiration and attribution theory for the first time at the level of the firm. Analysis of performance explanations by large, public manufacturing firms in 2004 and 2005 revealed that firms' performance explanations correlated with their cognitive experiences of success and failure. These findings further understanding of organizational cognition, attribution, and image management.
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RAST, Sebastian. "Essays on the dynamics of inflation expectations." Doctoral thesis, European University Institute, 2022. http://hdl.handle.net/1814/74528.
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Defence date: 11 May 2022<br>Examining Board : Prof. Evi Pappa (Universidad Carlos III Madrid); Prof. Leonardo Melosi (Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago); Dr. Philippe Andrade (Federal Reserve Bank of Boston); Dr. Marek Jarociński (European Central Bank)<br>This thesis investigates the dynamics of inflation expectations with a particular focus on survey data. It aims to further the understanding of what drives inflation expectations and what are the implications of changes in inflation expectations for economic choices. The first chapter examines to what extent monetary policy moves household inflation expectations. More specifically, I study the effect of different types of monetary policy announcements on household inflation expectations based on micro data from a survey of German households. As unique feature, interviews of the survey were conducted both shortly before and after monetary policy events. This timing provides a natural experiment to identify the immediate effects of policy announcements on household inflation expectations. In contrast to most existing studies, the availability of the survey over a period of 15 years also allows me to exploit the time-series dimension to estimate how policy announcements affect household inflation expectations over the medium-term. I find that policy rate announcements lead to quick and significant adjustments in household inflation expectations with the effect peaking after half a year. Announcements about forward guidance and quantitative easing, on the other hand, have only small and delayed effects. My results suggest that monetary policy announcements can influence household expectations but further improvements in communication seem to be necessary to reach the general public more effectively. In particular, in an environment where policy rates are constrained by the effective lower bound, it may be very hard for central banks to influence household expectations. In the second chapter, joint with Evi Pappa and Alejandro Vicondoa, we focus on expectations about inflation in the medium to long run and study the implications of changes in these expectations for households’ economic choices. We identify in a SVAR shocks that best explain future movements in different measures of underlying inflation at a five-year horizon and label them as news augmented shocks to underlying inflation. Independently of the measure used, such shocks raise the nominal rate and inflation persistently, while they induce mild and short-lived increases in economic activity. The extracted inflation shocks have differential distributional effects. They increase significantly and persistently the consumption of mortgagors and homeowners. Differently from the traditional monetary policy disturbances, news augmented shocks to underlying inflation induce a positive wealth effect for mortgagors and homeowners, driven by a reduction in the real mortgage payments and a persistent increase in real house prices that they induce. The third chapter, joint with Jonas Fisher and Leonardo Melosi, is also about long-run inflation expectations but in this case the focus is on professional forecasters. We use panel data from the U.S. Survey of Professional Forecasters to estimate a model of individual forecaster behavior in an environment where inflation follows a trend-cycle time series process. Our model allows us to estimate the sensitivity of forecasters’ long-run expectations to incoming inflation and news about future inflation, and measure the coordination of beliefs about future inflation. We use our model of individual forecasters to study average long-run inflation expectations. Short term changes in inflation have small effects on average expectations; the sensitivity to news is over twice as large, but is still relatively small. These findings provide a partial explanation for why the anchoring and subsequent de-anchoring of average inflation expectations over 1991 to 2020 were such long-lasting episodes. Our model suggests coordination of beliefs also played a role, slowing down but not preventing the pull on average expectations from inflation running persistently below target. We apply our model to the case of a U.S. central banker setting policy in September 2021. Our results suggest the high inflation readings of mid-2021 would have to be followed by overshooting of the Fed’s target generally at the high end of the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections to re-anchor long term expectations at their pre-Great Recession level.<br>1 Central Bank Communication with the General Public:
Survey Evidence from Germany
1.1 Introduction
1.2 Data and descriptive evidence
1.3 Identification approach and main results
1.4 Discussion
1.5 Inflation expectations and consumer spending
1.6 Conclusion
2 Uncovering the heterogeneous effects of news shocks to underlying inflation 32
2.1 Introduction
2.2 Identifying News Shocks to Underlying Inflation
2.3 Macroeconomic Effects
2.4 Estimation of Heterogeneous Effects
2.5 Comparison with Monetary Policy Shocksclusion
3 Anchoring long-run inflation expectations in a panel of professional forecasters
3.1 Introduction
3.2 Relation to the literature
3.3 The Model
3.4 Estimation
3.5 Data
3.6 Estimates
3.7 Inflation expectations through the lens of the model
3.8 Re-Anchoring U.S. Inflation Expectations
3.9 Conclusion --
References --
A Appendix to Chapter 1 --
A.1 GfK household survey --
A.2 Monetary policy surprises --
A.3 Additional event study results --
A.4 Additional local projection results --
A.5 Dynamic effects based on pseudo panel approach --
A.6 The effects on quantitative inflation expectations --
A.7 Financial market responses --
B Appendix to Chapter 2 --
B.1 Data Appendix --
B.2 Series of underlying inflation --
B.3 Correlation with monetary policy/inflation target shocks --
B.4 Validation of the Identified Shock --
B.5 IRFs Additional Variables --
B.6 VAR Robustness Analysis --
B.7 LP IRFs of VAR variables --
B.8 VAR IRFs of consumption responses by housing tenure --
B.9 Additional LP results --
B.10 Alternative dimensions of heterogeneity --
B.11 Robustness of Baseline Heterogeneous Effects --
B.12 Comparison with monetary policy shocks --
C Appendix to Chapter 3 --
C.1 Definition of matrices in subsection 3.3.2 and section 3.4 --
C.2 Model derivations --
C.3 Initial conditions for estimation --
C.4 Selection of forecasters --
C.5 Volatility of Expectations --
C.6 Historical decomposition --
C.7 Robustness of panel estimation --
C.8 Projection exercise
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Basu, Somnath. "Information, expectations and equilibrium: Trading volume hypotheses." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1990. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/185109.
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In analyses of the relationship between information and price-volume reactions, the role of investor expectations is often considered implicitly. Not allowing investors to either disagree among each other or remain uninformed is a consequence of the assumption of a free and perfect information flow. A more flexible definition of information allows the observation that trading volume is an accurate reflector of investor expectations and contains valuable information about price movements. Trading volume is also used to empirically show the effects of imperfect information and the inappropriateness of the event study method.
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Pak, Minsok. "Long horizon movements in exchange rates: Great expectations." Oberlin College Honors Theses / OhioLINK, 1991. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=oberlin1342189772.
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PANK, ROULUND Rasmus. "Essays in empirical economics." Doctoral thesis, European University Institute, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/1814/62944.
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Defence date: 20 May 2019<br>Examining Board:
Prof. Jerome Adda (Supervisor);
Prof. Piero Gottardi,University of Essex;
Prof. Rosemarie Nagel, Universitat Pompeu Fabra;
Prof. Glenn W. Harrison, Georgia State University<br>This first chapter is co-authored with Nicolás Aragón and examines how participant and market confidence affect the outcomes in an experimental asset market where the fundamental value is known by all participants. Such a market should, in theory, clear at the expected value in each period. However, the literature has shown that bubbles often occur in these markets. We measure the confidence of each participant by asking them to forecast the one-period-ahead price as a discrete probability mass distribution. We find that confidence not only affects price-formation in markets, but is important in explaining the dynamics of bubbles. Moreover, as traders’ confidence grows, they become increasingly more optimistic, thus increasing the likelihood of price bubbles. The second chapter also deals with expectations and uncertainty, but from a different angle. It asks how increased uncertainty affects economic demand in a particular sector, using a discrete-choice demand framework. To investigate this issue I examine empirically to what extent varying uncertainty affects the consumer demand for flight traffic using us micro demand data. I find that the elasticity of uncertainty on demand is economically and statistically significant. The third chapter presents a more practical side to the issue examined in the first chapter. It describes how to elicit participants’ expectations in an economic experiment. The methodology is based on Harrison et al. (2017). The tool makes it easier for participants in economic experiments to forecast the movements of a key variable as discrete values using a discrete probability mass distribution that can be “drawn” on a virtual canvas using the mouse. The module I wrote is general enough that it can be included in other economic experiments.<br>1. Certainty and Decision-Making in Experimental Asset Markets
1.1. Literature Review
1.2. Hypotheses
1.3. Experimental Design
1.3.1. The asset market
1.3.2. Eliciting traders’ beliefs
1.3.3. Risk, Ambiguity and Hedging
1.4. Overview of experimental data
1.4.1. Summary of the trade data
1.4.2. Expectation data
1.5. Results
1.5.1. Predictions and forecast
1.5.2. Convergence of expectations
1.5.3. Market volatility and initial expectations
1.5.4. Explanatory power of certainty on price formation
1.6. Conclusion
2. The impact of macroeconomic uncertainty on demand:
2.1. Introduction
2.2. Literature review
2.3. A model of demand for flights
2.3.1. Demand
2.3.2. Firms
2.4. Data
2.4.1. The characteristics of the products
2.4.2. Market and macroeconomic characteristics
2.4.3. Instruments
2.4.4. Product shares
2.5. Results
2.6. Conclusion
3. forecast.js: a module for measuring expectation in economic experiments
3.1. Background
3.1.1. Elicitating Expectations in Experimental Finance
3.1.2. Eliciting a Distribution of Beliefs: Theoretical Considerations
3.2. Using the forecast.js module
3.2.1. Calibration
3.2.2. Accessing the forecast data
3.3. The generated data
3.3.1. Example of individual expectations
3.3.2. Timing Considerations
3.3.3. Prediction precision over time
3.4. Conclusion
Bibliography
A. Appendix to Chapter 1
A.1. Further robustness checks
A.1.1. Additional graph for Hypothesis 2
A.1.2. Increased agreement with the Bhattacharyya coefficient
A.1.3. Additional robustness checks for Hypothesis 3
A.2. Instructions for experiment
A.2.1. General Instructions
A.2.2. How to use the computerized market
A.3. Questionnaire
A.3.1. Before Session
A.3.2. After Session
B. Appendix to Chapter 3 99
B.1. Robustness check of precision
B.2. Using forecast.js in a standalone HTML page
B.3. Using forecast.js with oTree
B.3.1. Setting up models.py
B.3.2. The pages.py file
B.3.3. Display forecast modules on the pages
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Murray, James M. "Three essays in adaptive expectations in New Keynesian monetary economics." [Bloomington, Ind.] : Indiana University, 2008. http://gateway.proquest.com/openurl?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:dissertation&res_dat=xri:pqdiss&rft_dat=xri:pqdiss:3337247.
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Thesis (Ph.D.)--Indiana University, Dept. of Economics, 2008.<br>Title from PDF t.p. (viewed on Jul 28, 2009). Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, Volume: 69-12, Section: A, page: 4808. Adviser: Eric M. Leeper.
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Kim, Yŏng-yong. "Exchange rate determination under rational expectations : an empirical investigation /." Connect to resource, 1985. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view.cgi?acc%5Fnum=osu1264773152.
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Jansson, Öhlén Linn. "Expectations, Compassion and Confusion : Volunteers’ experiences and perspectives." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Institutionen för naturvetenskap, miljö och teknik, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-27934.
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The roots of international voluntary work can be said to stem back to the 19:th century missionary work. It is thus nothing new with westerners wanting to spread their knowledge or help the poor in other countries. However, relatively recently the international voluntary work or, as termed in this thesis, volunteer tourism have become more like an industry. Both the older phenomenon of non-profit organizers of volunteer travels and the newer, nowadays more visible, alternative of commercial companies are to choose from. Within this relatively new landscape of volunteer travels, this study seeks to understand the volunteers’ and the volunteer experience through a comparison of non-profit and profit organizers of volunteer travels. To do this, open-ended interviews were conducted with 14 former volunteers who had travelled with various organizers. The interviews took place in Stockholm, March-April 2015. The theoretical framework is based on critical theories, social movement theory and theories about (volunteer) tourism. The study showed that the experiences of and motivations for volunteering were quite similar between the groups. However, the volunteers’ who had travelled with non-profit organizers were in retrospect less focused on the aim of “helping” and they had to a larger extend revalued the aim and concept of volunteering. The most common least satisfactory part of the travel was the working situation. For all, the in general most valuable outcome of the travel was a cultural insight (exchange) rather than making a difference or helping, which is the common image marketed by many volunteer travel organizers.
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Wenzelburger, Jan. "Learning in economic systems with expectations feedback." Berlin Heidelberg New York Springer, 2006. http://deposit.ddb.de/cgi-bin/dokserv?id=2668403&prov=M&dok_var=1&dok_ext=htm.
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Varela, Gonzalo. "Exchange rate expectations, uncertainty and output in the Southern Cone." Thesis, University of Sussex, 2011. http://sro.sussex.ac.uk/id/eprint/7345/.
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In this thesis we investigate the effects of real exchange rate (RER) uncertainty on output in the context of Southern Cone economies. The first chapter provides a framework to analyze the output effects of RER uncertainty when firms contract dollar-debt and no hedging instruments are available, by focusing on the channel uncertainty-output operating through the firms financial strategy. An increase in uncertainty increases the probability of bankruptcy, raising expected marginal bankruptcy costs, and reducing optimal output of a risk-neutral firm. We find the output response to uncertainty shocks to depend on firms' liquidity balances, trade orientation and perceptions about government assistance if large exchange rate movements occur. The second chapter examines empirically RER uncertainty effects on sectoral output for 28 manufacturing sectors in the Southern Cone over 1970-2002. We use alternative uncertainty measures allowing different degrees of sophistication in agents' expectation mechanisms to estimate a supply function. We use instrumental variable techniques to address potential simultaneity problems. Results suggest a negative non-negligible effect of uncertainty on output, threshold effects, and sectoral heterogeneity, explained by trade orientation, the intensity with which sectors trade within Mercosur and by sectoral productivity. The fourth chapter investigates the importance of past exchange rate behaviour when forming expectations and tests for the uncovered interest parity (UIP) hypothesis in Uruguay. Using interest rate differentials over 1980-2010 we identify a strong extrapolative component in expectations, following an inverted-U pattern over time. Agents internalise announcements and shocks that may affect fundamentals. Deviations from UIP are low for high-inflation periods, and highfor low-inflation periods and freely floating regimes. As long as what it takes to predict well is simple (look backwards, follow announcements), interest rate differentials perform well. Once exchange rate determination becomes intricate, agents fail at predicting. This finding remains unchanged when survey data are used for the period 2005-2010.
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Семененко, Тетяна Олексіївна, Татьяна Алексеевна Семененко та Tetiana Oleksiivna Semenenko. "Інфляційні очікування: історія питання та проблеми сьогодення". Thesis, Дніпропетровський національний університет імені Олеся Гончара, 2010. http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/63922.
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Інфляційні очікування – процес реагування економічних суб’єктів на інформацію про загальне зростання цін в минулому періоді або передбачуване, прогнозоване їх зростання в майбутньому періоді. В економічній літе-ратурі широко поширені дві теорії з цього питання. Основою формування інфляційних очікувань є інформаційне підґрунтя щодо загрози неминучого зростання цін.<br>Inflation expectations – is a reaction process of the economic actors about the inflation rate in the previous period or predicted, presumed inflation rate in the future period. Two theories about this topic are quite popular in the economic lit-erature. Informational background is considered to be the reason of inevitable prices growth.
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Li, Jun. "Parental expectations of Chinese immigrants: A folk theory about children's school achievement." Thesis, University of Ottawa (Canada), 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/6144.
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Guided by the sociocultural approach (Wertsch, 1998; Wertsch, Del Rio & Alvarez, 1995), the study explores the relationship between parental expectations of the Chinese immigrants and their children's school achievement by pursuing three objectives: (a) to depict how immigrant Chinese parents and children "do things on the basis of their beliefs and desires, striving for goals, meeting obstacles which they best or which best them" (Brurier, 1990, p.43); (b) to obtain a better understanding of how immigrant Chinese parental expectations are constructed in a given sociocultural and historical context; and (c) to examine the affordances and constraints of immigrant Chinese parental expectations on their children's school achievement. With a qualitative grounded theory methodology (Strauss & Corbin, 1990), multiple data collection methods (open-ended interviews, researcher's journal, and document review) and multiple sources of data (parents, children, and other Chinese informants) were employed to ensure research trustworthiness. Seven recent immigrant Chinese families were primary participants in the study. The convergence and divergence of the accounts of the participants and other informants put forward an immigrant Chinese folk theory. The findings comprise four sections: (a) accounts of the parents; (b) accounts of the children; (c) visible minority experiences; and (d) role of parental expectations. Based on their cultural beliefs and life experiences, the parents mainly addressed their expectations in five areas, namely school achievement, career aspirations, integration of two cultures, moral character, and leadership role. The children expressed their perceptions of parental expectations, their anxious thoughts and feelings, and their self-expectations. All participants shared their thoughts on racial discrimination, visible minority ideology, and dreams of prosperity. Both parents and children affirmed that parental expectations fostered goal orientation, mastery learning experiences, internal control beliefs, and study habits. The study has demonstrated that the relationship between parental expectations of the Chinese immigrants and their children's school achievement is significantly shaped by the dynamic and complex interplay of multiple forces such as indigenous cultural expectations, personal life experiences, and the challenges of acculturation. High parental expectations and children's striving for excellence are rooted in Chinese cultural heritage and are situationally motivated and historically transformed in different ways in response to the demands of the Canadian sociocultual context. By giving voice to this fastest-growing yet under-researched largest visible minority group in Canada, the study makes educational experiences of the Chinese immigrants intelligible to the general public as well as to policy makers. It lends insights to the importance and necessity of anti-racism education. It assists immigrant Chinese parents and children to achieve mutual understanding in the process of acculturation. It also helps teachers and counsellors understand the cultural and family factors involved in schooling for immigrant Chinese children, so as to provide more efficient social and academic mentoring for non-mainstream children, and ultimately to enhance future school-home collaboration.
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Frömmel, Tomáš. "A Contribution to the Austrian Business Cycle Theory: Uncertainty and Price Expectations." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2016. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-205312.
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Common critique of the Austrian business cycle theory states that the Austrian cycle could not be initiated under the rational expectations hypothesis. This thesis therefore investigates the role of price expectations of entrepreneurs in the Austrian cycle theory. We conclude that this theory might be compatible with rational expectations only under several assumptions. The rational expectations hypothesis is, however, evaluated rather critically concluding it is quite strong and unrealistic assumption. Various regimes of monetary policy are discusses in the context of price expectations.
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Linden, Samantha Jean. "Job Expectations of Employees in the Millennial Generation." ScholarWorks, 2015. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/1411.
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Understanding Millennials' job expectations is critical for employee retention because of the number of Generation X workers who are unable to fill the job openings that Baby Boomers leave vacant when retiring from the workforce. The purpose of this phenomenological study was to explore Millennial employees' job expectations. Interviews were conducted with a purposeful sample of 20 Millennials who had at least a bachelor's degree, had at least 1 year of employment experience, and worked in the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area. The inclusion criteria established work experience as a foundation for determining Millennials' job expectations. The conceptual frameworks of this study included generational and psychological contract theories to support exploration of the central research question regarding job expectations of Millennial Generation employees. Moustakas's 7 steps of data analysis were used to guide logical identification of the job expectation themes most significant to these 20 Millennials. The themes identified were opportunity for growth, compensation, recognition, promotions, supervisor support, flexibility, environment, and job security. These Millennials expressed interest in having work/life flexibility in an engaging work environment that fosters professional skills growth. Participants sought supervisors who readily recognized accomplishments, provided opportunities for achieving promotions, and applied compensation that reflected job performance. Using these findings, business leaders could implement strategies and policies that create a more fair and satisfying work environment for Millennial employees. Social change could occur within companies as leaders integrate expanded information on job expectations into talent management procedures for improving overall multigenerational job satisfaction and employee relationships.
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Branch, William A. "Three essays on the dynamics and empirics of rationally heterogeneous expectations /." view abstract or download file of text, 2001. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/uoregon/fullcit?p3018358.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Oregon, 2001.<br>Typescript. Includes vita and abstract. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 99-102). Also available for download via the World Wide Web; free to University of Oregon users.
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MARINKOV, Viktor. "Essays in macroeconomics." Doctoral thesis, European University Institute, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/1814/64747.
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Defence date: 23 October 2019<br>Examining Board:
Prof. Ramon Marimon, European University Institute, (Supervisor);
Prof. Juan Dolado, Universidad Carlos III;
Prof. Gaetano Gaballo, HEC, Paris;
Prof. Thomas Sampson, LSE<br>This thesis contains three chapters. The first two consider deviations from rational expectations for understanding the unprecedentedly long period of a binding zero lower bound (ZLB) since the Great Recession. There I show that if agents are adaptively learning, Central Banks can use forward guidance to guide them through the novel economic environment. In the third chapter I take a more long-run structural outlook to study the interplay of skills, technologies and complementarities for understanding differences in labour market outcomes across OECD countries. The first chapter studies the effects of forward guidance (FG) from a novel perspective. Instead of considering FG as a promise for future actions or providing better forecasting, the Central Bank (CB) in the model is giving a signal about its own reaction function. The CB uses FG as a communication device to signal a policy change. The main findings are that clear communication increases welfare compared to no communication, yet vague messages prove ineffective. The second chapter considers the ZLB as an informational curtain for adaptively learning agents as they cannot observe the path of the interest rate. In a model I show that this results in expectations disagreement between the agents and the CB, consistent with the data. The disagreement coupled with the learning of the agents results in explosive dynamics. Forward guidance is shown to restore stability at the ZLB by preventing spurious expectational drift. The third chapter studies the relationship between returns to skill and assortative matching. Using the PIAAC cognitive skills dataset I show that: returns to skill are systematically related to industrial sorting; high-skilled industries have more assortative matching of workers from all occupations; and more developed countries have less mismatch. I further build a model to illuminate the mechanism. I find that rich countries experience a trade-off of lower overall mismatch but higher crosssectoral mismatch, yet due to higher search frictions poorer ones end up being more mismatched overall.
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Hicks, Angela H. "Millennials' Wants and Expectations of Their Organizational Leaders| A Generic Qualitative Inquiry." Thesis, Capella University, 2019. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=13427462.
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<p> Organizational leadership is the foundation that influences workforces and determines the overall success of organizations and employees. Prior to this study, research of Millennials’ wants and expectations from their organizational leaders lacked clarification and clear interpretation. A critical element in organizational survival is Millennial knowledge workers who create knowledge that supports sustainable, innovative, and successful organizations. Organizational leaders who want their organizations to succeed will capitalize on accuracy and precision in distinguishing Millennial knowledge workers’ wants and expectations of them. This study’s central research question was, “What do Millennial workers want and expect from their organizational leaders?” Several subquestions further clarified the study’s focus: “What do Millennials want and expect, if anything, from their organizational leaders in terms of (a) their relationships with their leaders, (b) their perceptions of their leaders as role models, and (c) their leaders’ ethical behaviors?” and “What do Millennial workers want to avoid in their organizational leaders?” The research methodology was a generic qualitative inquiry, utilizing thematic data analysis. This qualitative study utilized a 3-phase interview model and included semistructured questions and additional probing questions. The population of the study was Millennial knowledge workers. The study sample was recruited from U.S. businesses and organizations in various industries. The thematic data analysis comprised inductive and interpretive data and employed initial, theoretical, and focused coding. The study findings establish many wants and expectations of Millennial knowledge workers from their organizational leaders. These Millennial knowledge workers want and expect organizational leaders to demonstrate mutual respect, offer effective communication, behave ethically, and create and develop relationships with them. These Millennials expect leaders to provide coaching and guidance and to differentiate between work life and other unrelated life responsibilities. These Millennials expect leaders to be positive role models with emotional intelligence, and as a rule, they avoid unethical leaders. The findings benefit and support workplace partnerships and overall organizational efficiency and effectiveness, suggesting that organizational leaders must establish distinct and diverse understandings of Millennial knowledge workers’ wants and expectations.</p><p>
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STRATI, FRANCESCO. "Three Essays on Behavioral Economics." Doctoral thesis, Università di Siena, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/11365/1011301.
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Nowadays, behavioral economics has lured the attention of an increasing number of economists. This is due to the recent financial crisis of 2007-09 that forced economists to realize that psychological biases could modifiy rational equilibria since, on avarage, arbitrageurs are not always able to bring back the economy to the rational path. Taking into account limits of arbitrage and limits in cognitive capacities, an economy can be vulnerable to the sensitiveness of agents to new information. If this sensitiveness is of a certain size, such that arbitrageurs behavior is negligible, then sensitive agents (also called local thinkers in the following essays) can enter into the formation of an equilibrium modifying its dynamics.
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Johnson, Earl E. "Modern Prescription Theory and Application: Realistic Expectations for Speech Recognition With Hearing Aids." Digital Commons @ East Tennessee State University, 2013. https://dc.etsu.edu/etsu-works/1705.
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A major decision at the time of hearing aid fitting and dispensing is the amount of amplification to provide listeners (both adult and pediatric populations) for the appropriate compensation of sensorineural hearing impairment across a range of frequencies (e.g., 160?10000?Hz) and input levels (e.g., 50?75?dB sound pressure level). This article describes modern prescription theory for hearing aids within the context of a risk versus return trade-off and efficient frontier analyses. The expected return of amplification recommendations (i.e., generic prescriptions such as National Acoustic Laboratories?Non-Linear 2, NAL-NL2, and Desired Sensation Level Multiple Input/Output, DSL m[i/o]) for the Speech Intelligibility Index (SII) and high-frequency audibility were traded against a potential risk (i.e., loudness). The modeled performance of each prescription was compared one with another and with the efficient frontier of normal hearing sensitivity (i.e., a reference point for the most return with the least risk). For the pediatric population, NAL-NL2 was more efficient for SII, while DSL m[i/o] was more efficient for high-frequency audibility. For the adult population, NAL-NL2 was more efficient for SII, while the two prescriptions were similar with regard to high-frequency audibility. In terms of absolute return (i.e., not considering the risk of loudness), however, DSL m[i/o] prescribed more outright high-frequency audibility than NAL-NL2 for either aged population, particularly, as hearing loss increased. Given the principles and demonstrated accuracy of desensitization (reduced utility of audibility with increasing hearing loss) observed at the group level, additional high-frequency audibility beyond that of NAL-NL2 is not expected to make further contributions to speech intelligibility (recognition) for the average listener.
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Elhouar, Mikael. "Essays on interest rate theory." Doctoral thesis, Handelshögskolan i Stockholm, Finansiell Ekonomi (FI), 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hhs:diva-451.
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Kortbeek, Nancy L. "The oppression remedy, the reasonable expectations test and the economic theory of incomplete contracting." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape9/PQDD_0006/MQ40131.pdf.
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Webb, Dave. "Exploring the antecedents of customer expectations : an empirical investigation from a role theory perspective." Thesis, Cardiff University, 1995. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.387719.
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Stilwell, C. Dean. "Initial performance expectations, strength of those expectations, and social interaction behavior of subordinates : their effect on the development process in leader-member exchange theory." Diss., Georgia Institute of Technology, 1992. http://hdl.handle.net/1853/30248.
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Aurissergues, Elliot. "Essays on macroeconomic theory." Thesis, Paris 1, 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018PA01E029/document.
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Cette thèse est composée de trois chapitres indépendants. Le premier chapitre concerne la formation des anticipations. Je montre que les agents sont susceptibles d’utiliser un modèle mal spécifié plutôt que le "vrai" modèle de l’économie. Je considère une économie simple avec deux types d’agents. Les agents rationnels apprennent la solution à anticipation rationnelle tandis que les agents "cohérents" utilisent un modèle autorégressif. Je montre qu’un équilibre de long terme dans lequel les agents cohérents sont dominants existe. Des simulations montrent que l’économie peut converger vers cet équilibre. Le deuxième chapitre concerne le choix intertemporel. Je considère un modèle dans lequel la richesse entre dans l’utilité. J’étudie le cas non-séparable, séparant ainsi l’effet revenu sur l’offre de travail de l’effet de substitution intertemporelle. Je déduis des implications pour la politique économique, puis, j’estime les deux paramètre introduits par cette spécification de l’utilité. Je trouve des valeurs positives et élevées pour les deux. Le troisième chapitre présente un modèle d’investissement en présence de sélection adverse. Ma contribution est de fournir une solution simple, facile à intégrer dans un modèle macroéconomique. Les emprunteurs différent par le risque de leur projet d’investissement comme dans Stiglitz et Weiss (1981). Ils signalent le risque de leur projet en empruntant une fraction des bénéfices mis en réserve. J’obtiens une solution analytique pour la contrainte d’incitation. Je l’intègre dans un modèle dynamique et déduis certaines implications<br>This thesis is made of three independent chapters. The first chapter contributes to the literature on expectations. I argue that they may learn a misspecified model instead of learning the rational expectation model. I consider a simple economy with two types of agents. Rational learners learn the true model of the economy whereas consistent learners learn an autoregressive model. I show that a long run equilibrium exists in which consistent learners dominate. Simulations show that the economy may converge towards it. The second chapter deals with the intertemporal choice. I consider a model with wealth in the utility. I study the case of nonseparability. This disentangles between the income effect on labor supply and the intertemporal substitution effect. I derive several implications for economic policy. Then, I estimate the two new parameters introduced in the paper. I find large and positive values for both. The third chapter builds a model of corporate investment under adverse selection. My contribution is to provide a tractable model easy to embed into a macroeconomic model. Borrowers differs by the riskiness of their investment project like in Stiglitz and Weiss (1981). They have infinite horizon and signal their type by borrowing a fraction of their retained earnings. I get an analytic solution for the incentive constraint. I integrate the relation into a dynamic model and derive some implications
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Liu, Peter Chi-Wah. "The dynamics of nominal exchange rates." Gainesville, FL, 1989. http://www.archive.org/details/dynamicsofnomina00liup.
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Jackson, Aaron L. "Near-rational behavior in New Keynesian models /." view abstract or download file of text, 2002. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/uoregon/fullcit?p3061948.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Oregon, 2002.<br>Typescript. Includes vita and abstract. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 110-113). Also available for download via the World Wide Web; free to University of Oregon users.
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Warnqvist, Anna. "TREATMENT EXPECTATIONS AND THEIRIMPLICATIONS FOR LUMBAR FUSION SURGERY ON CHRONIC BACK PAIN." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Statistiska institutionen, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-385506.
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Govan, Venita M. "Employee Awareness of Organizational Cultural and Climate Expectations." ScholarWorks, 2019. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/7651.
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Organizational culture statements are established to pronounce and promote core values for employees to live while performing roles and responsibilities. It is essential for employees to be knowledgeable of cultural expectations. When considering organizational alignment, research has indicated there is deficient linkage when analyzing applied strategies versus envisioned strategies focusing on employees’ actual lived experiences. The purpose of this phenomenological study was to survey whether the corporate health care employees’ lived experiences mirrored the stated cultural values associated with the theoretical framework concerning artifacts, espoused values, and basic assumptions. Through an online survey, this phenomenological study analyzed cultural experiences of 10 corporate health care employees, ranging from administrative support to the executive level. This study revealed experiences by employees based on stated cultural values and expectations. Many of the participants’ lived experiences linked back to the organization’s advertised cultural values. Results relative to behaviors emulating the culture statement were expressed based on employees’ alignment with the organizational mission and vision. They feel included, recognize integrity, and have an appreciation for serving the community. Other findings linked to the communication mediums were based on utilization, frequency, and access to appropriate communication tools. Findings also demonstrated leaders’ behaviors which align with innovation and granting autonomy for optimal performance. These results may influence social change by providing insight for better understanding employees’ lived experiences, thus creating improved alignment, replication of behaviors, mutual respect, and collaboration.
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Benitez, Marcus, and Love Frantzén. "Förväntat resultat (outcome expectations) av regelbunden fysisk aktivitet hos äldre." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Sjukgymnastik, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-159976.
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Syfte: Syftet med studien var att undersöka det förväntade resultatet (outcome expectations) vad gäller fysiska, själv-värderande och sociala förväntningar av regelbunden träning hos äldre fysiskt aktiva respektive fysiskt inaktiva och även jämföra de båda grupperna och se om skillnad förelåg. Metod: 32 stycken deltagare inkluderades i studien genom bekvämlighetsurval för att representera populationen äldre (>65 år) friska individer. Deltagarna fick fylla i en enkät gällande motionsvanor senaste 12 månaderna och delades sedan in i grupperna regelbundet fysiskt aktiva respektive inaktiva beroende på vad de svarat i enkäten. Deltagarnas förväntningar på resultatet av regelbunden fysisk aktivitet mättes sedan med en enkät kallad Multidimensional Outcome Expectations for Exercise Scale (MOEES) som undersöker fysiska, själv-värderande och sociala förväntningar. Resultat: De regelbundet fysiskt aktiva hade högre resultatförväntningar på regelbunden fysisk aktivitet gällande fysiska förväntningar. Ingen signifikant skillnad mellan grupperna kunde ses gällande själv-värderande och sociala förväntningar. Konklusion: Äldre som regelbundet är fysiskt aktiva har högre fysiska förväntningar på fysisk aktivitet än äldre inaktiva. Fler studier som undersöker och jämför det förväntade resultatet gällande fysiska, själv-värderande och sociala förväntningar av fysiskt aktivitet mellan äldre aktiva och inaktiva behövs för att styrka sambanden mellan att vara fysiskt aktiv och vad äldre förväntar sig att få ut av det.<br>Purpose: The purpose of this study was to examine outcome expectations in terms of physical, self-evaluative and social expectations of regular physical activity/exercise in physically active or physically inactive older adults, and compare the two groups and see if any difference existed.Method: The participants were 32 conveniently selected individuals, representing the population elderly (> 65 years) and healthy individuals who are regularly physically active or inactive. The participants answered a questionnarie regarding their level of physical activity during the last 12 months which divided them into two groups, physically active or physically inactive. The Multidimensional Outcome Expectations for Exercise Scale (MOEES) questionnaire was then used to measure the participant´s level of outcome expectations of regular physical activity/exercise. Results: The regularly physically active participants had higher scores on MOEES, in terms of physical expectations than participants who were physically inactive. No significant difference where seen between the two when comparing the total score of MOEES and the subgroups self-evaluative, and social expectations for regular physical activity/exercise. Conclusion: This study showed that there in older adults, is a relation between being physically active and having higher physical outcome expectations of physical activity/exercise. Further studies which examines outcome expectations in terms of physical, self-evaluative and social expectations of regular physical activity/exercise, in physically active or physically inactive older adults is warranted.
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McClurg, Arlene Davidson. "A phenomenological study of Baby Boomer retirement--- Expectations, results, and implications." Thesis, University of Phoenix, 2014. http://pqdtopen.proquest.com/#viewpdf?dispub=3577291.
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<p> The first wave of Baby Boomers became eligible for early retirement in January 2008. This qualitative phenomenological study of 15 Baby Boomer retirees was conducted to understand the Baby Boomer retirees lived experiences and determine if they might want to return to work after they retired. Themes extracted from the semi-structured interview process included planning and expectations, how retirement stacked up against expectations, financial impact, interest in work in the future, and new skills or training wanted. Changing economic conditions mandate that individuals assume more responsibility for their retirement. Concurrently, organizational leadership must recognize that shifts in population growth in the U. S. may affect their staffing needs and that retirees are one viable source of these skills.</p>
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Camilleri, Tania. "Expectations, self-determination, reward-seeking behaviour and well-being in Malta's financial services sector." Thesis, University of Leicester, 2018. http://hdl.handle.net/2381/42869.
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Despite the vast research on the productive aspect of rewards, little is known on how the changes in employees’ behaviour, made to enhance their chances of achieving a reward, influence employee well-being. Previous work has failed to address the process of reward-seeking behaviour from an employee’s point of view as the focus was on the motivational aspect of rewards. This thesis uses the case of Malta’s financial institutions to examine the relationship between reward-seeking behaviour from bonuses and promotions and employee well-being by drawing on expectancy theory and self-determination theory. To achieve its aims, this study adopts a qualitative approach, wherein 42 semi-structured interviews with employees and four interviews with human resources managers are conducted at financial institutions in Malta – two of which are small and medium-sized enterprises and one is a large-sized institution. Memos and diary notes are also used to complement the data collected from the semi-structured interviews. Overall, the results strongly support the idea that while almost everyone values rewards, employees differ in their willingness to engage in reward-seeking behaviour and its influence on well-being. This thesis contributes to knowledge through the development of a theoretical model – the four quadrant reward-seeking behaviour – well-being model. This typology based model classifies employees into four main categories, namely, highly motivated, apathetic, work-life balanced and work-life imbalanced. This two by two matrix also led to another model that depicts reward-seeking behaviour and well-being as a non-sequential process. The findings have practical implications for human resources practitioners as they now have the capacity to visualise the actual employee mix according to the categories of the model and act on any significant gaps.
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Cavalhieri, Klaus Eickhoff. "Experiences of Discrimination and Outcome Expectations as Predictors of Health Care Utilization." OpenSIUC, 2016. https://opensiuc.lib.siu.edu/theses/2006.
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This study is an investigation of how experiences of discrimination, self-efficacy, and the associated outcome expectations influence health care utilization of young college students. The relationships tested were informed by Andersen’s Behavioral Model of Health Services Use (Andersen, 2008), the most widely used model to understand and predict health care utilization. Andersen proposed that health care utilization is influenced by predisposing (i.e., personal characteristics), enabling (i.e., income, insurance), and need (i.e., perception of illness) factors. However, his model has been criticized for not taking in consideration social factors and oversimplifying the role of ethnicity as a predictor (Bradley et al., 2002). The purpose of this study is to expand the explanatory power of Andersen’s model, by including psychosocial variables (e.g., discrimination, self-efficacy). One hundred and eighty-five students completed a 20 minute online survey, which included measures of experiences of discrimination, outcome expectations, self-efficacy, attitudes, and demographic variables. Results indicated that self-efficacy to communicate with physicians was a significant predictor of health care utilization, although experiences of discrimination were not. The effects of discrimination on health care utilization were further found to be mediated by self-efficacy to communicate with physicians. The present study's finding provided support for the inclusion of psychosocial variables (i.e., self-efficacy) in Andersen's model to increase its explanatory power.
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Garofano, Christina. "INITIAL TESTING OF THE CONTINUOUS EMPLOYEE DEVELOPMENT MODEL: OUTCOME EXPECTATIONS AND WORK-RELATED IMPLICIT THEORY." Doctoral diss., University of Central Florida, 2006. http://digital.library.ucf.edu/cdm/ref/collection/ETD/id/3269.
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Understanding and promoting lifelong learning in employees is important for employees' future marketability (Robinson & Rousseau, 1994) and for creating learning organizations (Senge, 1990). To further this understanding, components of a model of the motivation to engage in continuous employee development (Garofano & Salas, 2005) were tested. New scales were created for work-related implicit theory and outcome expectations and the validity of these scales and these variables in the model were investigated. Alternate models were also contrasted with the Garofano and Salas model (2005). The study used self-report surveys administered to staff and faculty recruited from training classes in higher learning institutions in a three month longitudinal investigation. The results suggest that work-related implicit theory is a valid contributor in this model but that modifications to the model may be beneficial, including a more complex central motivational component. Implications of these results for organizational practice are discussed along with study limitations and future research implications<br>Ph.D.<br>Department of Psychology<br>Sciences<br>Psychology
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Wright, Seth. "Competence, Warmth, And Expectations: An Integration Of Status Characteristics Theory And The Stereotype Content Model." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/556454.
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Over the last fifty years, researchers in Status Characteristics Theory (SCT) have conclusively demonstrated that within task groups, status differences between members influence the emergence of a power and prestige hierarchy within the group. According to the theory, this is accomplished through the activation of stereotypical expectations of group members' abilities. However, relatively little research has directly examined the cognitive process associated with expectation formation. During this same period, scholars within diverse subfields of psychology have suggested that there are two fundamental dimensions along which social judgments are made. These two dimensions have been referred to by various names, including instrumentality and expressivity, agency and communality, and competence and warmth. The most recent exploration of this idea can be found in the field of cognitive science as part of the Stereotype Content Model (SCM). The purpose of the current research is to integrate the basic propositions of SCT with the cognitive process outlined in SCM. In doing so, I hope to situate SCT within an expansive body of existing research, while suggesting a number of potentially useful directions for future research in SCT.
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Tzavalis, Elias. "Tests and applications of the rational expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates." Thesis, London Business School (University of London), 1993. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.361604.
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Sánchez, Martín Alberto. "Essays in inflation expectations, monetary economics, and asset pricing." Doctoral thesis, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10803/393913.
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Es conocido que las expectativas juegan un papel importante en las decisiones de los
agentes y son una característica fundamental en macroeconomía. Típicamente, en los
modelos utilizados en macroeconomía es asumido que los agentes tienen expectativas
racionales. Esto signi ca que los agentes en el modelo conocen perfectamente las funciones
de equilibrio y se comportan óptimamente. Este supuesto simpli ca las alternativas del
modelo, ya que evita tener que hacer supuestos diferentes sobre las expectativas. Tambi
én, evita la Crítica de Lucas puesto que los agentes incorporan en sus expectativas los
cambios en política. Sin embargo, algunas veces este supuesto tiene consecuencias que no
se cumplen en los datos. En estos casos, un desvío es asumir que el agente únicamente
conoce la forma de los procesos de equilibrio y se comporta óptimamente. Este supuesto es
llamado expectativas adaptativas de aprendizaje. Esta tesis examina escenarios donde las
hipótesis de expectativas racionales fala al reproducir el comportamiento de las variables
en los datos y usa la hipótesis de expectativas adaptativas para encontrar respuestas.
El primer capítulo, titulado Money, In ation, and In ation Expectations, documenta
una relación signi cativamente negativa entre dinero y expectativas de in ación en el
periodo 1990-2007 en EE.UU. nueva en la literatura. Al mismo tiempo, documenta una
relación no signi cativa entre dinero e in ación, consistente con la literatura. De no la
In ation Expectations and Money Puzzle como la di cultad de un modelo con expectativas
racionales para reproducir ambos hechos. Un modelo de Dinero en la Función de Utilidad
con un shock en la demanda de dinero y dotaciones exógenas genera ambos hechos cuando
el agente aprende sobre el proceso de in ación. Si el dinero se ajusta endógenamente
para mantener la in ación cercana a un objetivo, el dinero varía mientras la in ación es
estable. Puesto que los agentes no saben el proceso de la in ación, las expectativas de
in ación pueden responder positivamente a shock pasados mientras el dinero decrece para
compensar los efectos de las expectativas en la in ación. Esto explica la IEMP.
El segundo capítulo, titulado Long-Run Behavior from an Endogenous Monetary Pol-
icy Perspective, se centra en la relación de largo plazo entre in ación, tipo de interés
nominal y dinero en EE.UU. Mientras que en el periodo anterior a la desin ación de Volcker
las variables tuvieron una relación de uno-a-uno, durante los últimos veinte años no
hubo una relación signi cativa. Aquí se documentan estas relaciones centrándose en un
periodo muestral largo, 1960-2007, y otro corto, 1990-2007, y cuestiona si una política
monetaria endógena como la del capítulo anterior podría reproducir el comportamiento
de largo-plazo de estas variables. Concluyo que ni la versión de expectativas racionales ni
el de expectativas adaptativas es capaz de generar ambos comportamientos y subrayo la
importancia de alguna característica no incluida en el modelo.
El tercer capítulo, titulado Asset Pricing in an Heterogeneous Expectations Model,
introduce un modelo basado en consumo de valoración de activos con agentes que usen
expectativas racionales y expectativas adaptativas. Evalúa el desempeño de este modelo
estimando los parámetros usando datos de precios de activos en EE.UU. a través de la
técnica del método de simulación de momentos. El modelo sugiere que, por un lado,
la persistencia de los retornos de activos y, por otro lado, la volatilidad de los retornos
de activos y del ratio precio-dividendo se contraponen y la proporción de agentes que
aprenden juega un papel central.<br>This thesis is focused on the role of expectations in the economy. It is well-known that
expectations play a prominent role in decision making and are a crucial feature in macroe-
conomics. Typically, in macroeconomic modeling it is assumed that agents are endowed
with rational expectations. This basically means that agents in the model perfectly know
the general equilibrium functions of the model and behave optimally. Many times this
assumption is appropriate because it simpli es modeling choices, as it avoids having to
make separate assumptions about agents' expectations. Also, rational expectations avoids
Lucas' Critique as agents in the model incorporate policy changes into their expectations.
However, it sometimes attaches features that the data does not reproduce. In those cases,
it is worthy to slightly deviate from rational expectations and assume agents does not
perfectly know equilibrium functions (but know the form of the function) and still behave
optimally. This is what is called adaptive learning expectations. This thesis examines
some scenarios where the rational expectations hypothesis fails to reproduce the behavior
of the variables in the data and looks for answers using the adaptive learning expectations
hypothesis instead.
The rst chapter, entitled Money, In
ation, and In
ation Expectations, documents a
signi cant negative relation between money and in
ation expectations for the 1990-2007
period in the US which is new to the literature. During the same period, there existed a
weak relation between money growth and in
ation consistent with the literature. I call
In
ation Expectations and Money Puzzle (IEMP) to the di culty of a rational expec-
tations model to reproduce both facts. A simple Money-in-the-Utility (MIU) function
model with a money demand shock and exogenous endowment accounts for both facts
when the representative agent learns about the true in
ation process. If money supply
adjusts endogenously to keep in
ation rate close to a target and smooth, money varies
whereas in
ation keeps stable. Because the agent does not know the true in
ation pro-
cess, in
ation expectations might respond positively to past shocks whereas money supply
decreases to o set their potential e ects on in
ation. This disentangles the IEMP.
The second chapter, entitled Long-Run Behavior from an Endogenous Monetary Policy
Perspective, looks to the long-run relation between in
ation, nominal interest rate, and
money growth. Recently, it has been noted the long-run relation between these variables
have changed. Whereas in the period before the Volcker disin
ation they had a one-to-
one relation, during the last two decades there were no signi cant relation. This study
documents the long-run relation of those variables focusing on a long sample, 1960-2007,
and a short-sample, 1990-2007, and questions whether the endogenous monetary policy
model of the previous chapter could match the change in the long-run relation of this
variables. It concludes neither a rational expectations nor a learning expectations version
of the model is able to replicate this behavior and highlights the importance of some
feature that is not attached to the model.
The third chapter, entitled Asset Pricing in an Heterogeneous Expectations Model,
studies how can be introduced a consumption-based asset pricing model with rational
agents and agents that learn about the market outcomes. It evaluates the performance of
this model estimating the relevant parameters using the U.S. asset pricing data through
the method of simulated moments technique. The model suggests that, in the one hand,
persistence of stock returns and, in the other hand, volatility of stock returns and price
dividends ratio provide a trade-o in which the proportion of learners plays a key role.
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Julia, Draeb. "Reexamining the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: an Out-of-Sample Forecasting Perspective." Miami University / OhioLINK, 2021. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=miami1623251442890825.
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Beutel, Johannes [Verfasser], and Klaus [Akademischer Betreuer] Adam. "Asset Price Booms and Busts, and Expectations: Theory and Empirical Evidence / Johannes Beutel ; Betreuer: Klaus Adam." Mannheim : Universitätsbibliothek Mannheim, 2017. http://d-nb.info/113347909X/34.
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Hicks, Manda V. "Negotiating Gendered Expectations: The Basic Social Processes of Women in the Military." Bowling Green State University / OhioLINK, 2011. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=bgsu1319580341.
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Dommers, Eric. "Social cognitive theory and type ii diabetes education: A case study." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2003. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/36681/1/36681_Digitised%20Thesis.pdf.
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Type II diabetes is one of Australia's six national health priority areas, and typically afflicts overweight adults who are over forty years of age. Although type II diabetes can be controlled through lifestyle modifications such as diet and exercise, many diabetic patients find these changes difficult to make, and to sustain.
Even when patients attend diabetes education programs which include medical information and skills training designed to facilitate changes in patient self-management behaviour, many fail to improve or control their condition.
Although the research literature has identified that health education programs which are based on Social Cognitive Theory (Bandura, 1997; 1986), and which are designed to increase participants' self-efficacy and outcome expectations, can produce changes in self-management behaviour - the research outcomes for group diabetes education programs (DEPs) have nonetheless yielded inconsistent results.
While there are numerous factors which have the potential to influence the educational process, this study explored the impact of a group diabetes education program based on Social Cognitive Theory on the cognitive processes (psycho-social skills) which are believed to support self-efficacy and outcome expectations.
Using a case study design, data was collected through structured interviews and surveys from participants in a group diabetes education program conducted in Brisbane. The broad findings of the current study were that:
1. outcome expectation beliefs changed substantially for most participants (as anticipated by the study), although the extent of biomedical knowledge acquisition was highly variable across the group.
2. cognitive change with respect to the knowledge of psycho-social processes was highly variable, with some participants manifesting no real change. This finding was (only) in partial correspondence with the anticipated changes.
3. several factors appeared to have impacted significantly on the DEP outcomes. These factors included: the level of diabetes educator skill and self confidence; the DEP participants' existing belief systems and cognitive flexibility with respect to psycho-social theories about motivation and confidence; the impact of group dynamics on 'learning to live' with diabetes; and contingent health issues influencing learning and learning transfer.
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Boulanger, Karen Therese. "Factors related to satisfaction, pain and affect outcomes in massage therapy clients." Diss., University of Iowa, 2012. https://ir.uiowa.edu/etd/1551.
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Massage therapy is often used to treat musculoskeletal symptoms and to promote wellness. While evidence regarding its effectiveness is increasing, research related to actual practice and studies seeking to understand the mechanisms of massage therapy are needed. The purpose of this research was to describe the characteristics of massage therapists and their clients and to understand the role of communication in massage therapy outcomes. The first study examined the outcome expectations, expectancies, and behaviors of a random sample of massage therapists in Iowa (n=151) using a cross-sectional survey. The second study used a practice-based research design incorporating two samples of massage therapy clients (n=320 and n=321) to develop and validate a measure of client expectations of massage, the Client Expectations of Massage Scale (CEMS). The third study examined the influence of client expectations and massage therapists' interpersonal attractiveness on pain and satisfaction following massage. Social Cognitive Theory and Expectancy Violation Theory were used as frameworks to demonstrate how health behavior and communication theories can provide insight to massage therapy research. Results indicated that massage therapists had high expectations regarding the benefits of massage therapy and engaged in a variety of behaviors that reflect the clinical, educational, and interpersonal nature of massage therapy. In addition to using a variety of manual therapies, the massage therapists educated their clients in areas such as diet, stress management, and exercise to improve client health. Similarly, clients had positive expectations as measured by the outcome, clinical, educational, and interpersonal subscales of the CEMS. Positive outcome expectations predicted significant improvements in pain and serenity. High interpersonal expectations were related to negative changes in serenity. The third study revealed that high satisfaction was influenced by positive interpersonal attractiveness but more research is needed to understand the influence of client expectations being met on satisfaction. Initially high educational expectations, exceeded educational expectations, violated interpersonal expectations, and positive interpersonal attractiveness were related to less pain following massage. In conclusion, this research demonstrated that client expectations and massage therapist interpersonal attractiveness are important constructs to consider when evaluating the effects of massage therapy.
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Cothorne, Adell. "Examining the Intersection of Teachers' Expectations, African American Males, and Equitable Strategies." ScholarWorks, 2018. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/6193.
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Elementary African American males achieve proficiency at a lower rate than their peers in both reading and math. The purpose of this qualitative case study was to understand how elementary school teachers described their use of equitable strategies in teaching elementary African American male students, how these teachers described the experience of teaching African American male students, and how they used equitable strategies to shape the classroom environment to engage African American male students. Two theories provided the conceptual framework for this study-human development theory and critical race theory in education. Seven participants were selected through convenience sampling. Semistructured interviews were conducted. Data analysis for this case study was conducted using analytic descriptive coding and category construction. Major categories were identified in order to examine patterns, themes, and relationships. Data analysis of the responses of research participants in this study revealed: (a) nurturing teacher-to-student relationships were paramount to students' success; (b) teachers who received professional development focused on the implementation of equitable strategies struggled with monitoring the effectiveness of equitable strategies regarding student outcomes. Consideration needs to occur regarding introducing and implementing culturally relevant pedagogy and equitable strategies with preservice teachers in order for them to understand the cultural as well as academic needs of the students they will educate. The findings of this study may provide school stakeholders with the strategies needed to support and improve the academic abilities of elementary African American males, thus constructing positive social change.
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Chalak, Karim Marwan. "Essays on the definition, identification, and estimation of causal effects." Connect to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC campuses, 2007. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p3259625.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of California, San Diego, 2007.<br>Title from first page of PDF file (viewed June 21, 2007). Available via ProQuest Digital Dissertations. Vita. Includes bibliographical references.
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Cooper, Joseph Thornton. "Role Residual: A Longitudinal Investigation of the Antecedents and Consequences of Enduring Role-Set Expectations." Columbus, Ohio : Ohio State University, 2009. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view.cgi?acc%5Fnum=osu1249016575.
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Broekkamp, Hein Hendricus. "Task demands and test expectations theory and empirical research on students' preparation for a teacher-made test /." [S.l. : Amsterdam : s.n.] ; Universiteit van Amsterdam [Host], 2003. http://dare.uva.nl/document/87452.
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