Academic literature on the topic 'Expected energy not supplied'

<abstract> <p>In the rural areas of Saudi Arabia, which are not connected to the national grid, electricity is supplied mainly from diesel generators. This is not just a non-renewable energy source, but it has also resulted in environmental damage and may be hazardous to human health. In order to mitigate the problem, integration with a solar photovoltaic system is proposed. A Photovoltaic-Diesel Hybrid System (PvDHS) was designed, analyzed, and optimized based on the climate data of Yanbu, Saudi Arabia. Measured local solar insolation and climate data were used in the Hybrid Optimization Model for Electric Renewables (HOMER) software with different system components and configurations in order to optimize the design that yields the best energy cost. A system consisting of a 3 kW photovoltaic system, a 2 kW diesel engine, a 1 kW converter, and 14 kWh batteries were identified to be the most cost-effective for the average daily electricity demand of 10.5 kWh. The total Net Present Cost (NPC) of this system is ＄17, 800, a reduction of 50% over the ＄35, 770 cost of the diesel-only system. The PvDHS useful electrical energy is found to be ＄0.36/kWh, while the Cost of Energy (COE) of the diesel-only system is ＄0.72/kWh. The system is expected to pay for itself in 2.8 years and reduce CO₂ emissions by 8110 kg per year.</p> </abstract>

“Modern energy for all,” an internationally supported initiative to connect populations to electricity services, is expected to help reduce poverty-induced vulnerabilities. It has become a primary strategy for meeting sustainable development goals, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. However, when electricity is supplied by a capacity-constrained grid to a resource-constrained population, the service quality can vary both spatially and temporally. This research explores the quality of electricity services based on a case study of Unguja, Tanzania. Using 1) open-ended interviews, 2) detailed electricity-systems monitoring, and 3) household surveys, we show how voltage quality varies significantly, even within highly localized settings. Fluctuations result in dim lights at best and power outages and broken appliances at worst, denying many Unguja residents the expected benefits of access to modern energy. By combining an extensive understanding of the physical system together with interviews and surveys, this work presents a unique mapping of voltage quality in a system that is financially and physically constrained and highlights the consequences of poor-quality service for poor users.

<p><span>The load shifting technique is widely implemented in electrical power generation due to its considerable impact on system reliability. The evaluation of load shifting benefits towards the adequacy of generation systems requires an accurate assessment. If the generation unit’s capacity is insufficient to meet the system load, then assistance is required from alternative sources. Load shifting, as a primary demand-side management technique, is used efficiently in electrical power networks given that the energy clipped/curtailed owing to load curtailment and peak clipping can be recovered during the off-peak period. The reliability of a generic framework for the prospective integration of a load shifting technique, with preventative and corrective actions as alternatives to peaking units, is investigated in this study. The optimal rate of load shifting in terms of expected energy not supplied is also investigated. Results show that preventive load shifting (PLS) can act as peaking units when the total generated capacity is within specific limits. Meanwhile, corrective load shifting can act as a better alternative than PLS and peaking units. To calculate expected energy not supplied, sequential Monte Carlo simulation is utilized. This study is conducted using the IEEE reliability test system.</span></p>

This paper designs a microgrid energy controller capable of creating a charging or discharging schedule for electric vehicles (EVs), aiming at leveraging the integration of renewable energy and shaving the peak load in the microgrid. Dynamically activated on each time slot to cope with the prediction error for the power consumption and the renewable energy generation, the controller calculates the number of EVs to charge or make discharge first. Then, a greedy algorithm-based scheduler selects EVs according to the expected energy potential during their stays. The potential is the integral of a supply-demand margin function from the current time to the expected departure time. A simulator is implemented for performance evaluation, comparing with uncoordinated scheduling, according to the number of EVs as well as the behavior of energy load and production. The experiment result shows that the proposed scheme can reduce the energy waste by 16.9 %, cut down the microgrid-level energy insufficiency by 12.2 %, and enhance the amount of electricity supplied to EVs by 37.3 %, respectively, for given parameter setting.

Solar Power Generation (SPG), or often called solar photovoltaic system, is one application of the use of solar energy as a source of electrical energy. This PLTS utilizes solar cells (photovoltaic) to generate electrical energy. The aimed of this research were to know the performance of PLTS installed power 150 Wp stand alone and know how much power capacity can be supplied by PLTS. Solar Power Generation (Photovoltaics) most influenced by the intensity of sunlight depending on each region. Module with a capacity of 150 Wp has been able to produce a mean power of 133.7 Watt / day. The expected output in this research was to create a good system and can contribute to student labs in laboratories and as an alternative source of energy in the Department of Mechanical Engineering and Maintenance, and beneficial for the development of electric power generation system in district of Fak-fak. This research was also expected to produce Scientific Publications in local journals.

The residential load is one of the largest consumers of the electric energy in Libya that could be supplied by renewable energies. Renewable energy technologies and systems can be a good solution to build “Zero Energy Buildings”. A zero-energy house is proposed for Maqrun city. It is intended to use wind turbine with batteries as a storage system to supply electric energy demand for this house. The intended house average daily electric energy demand is estimated to be 35 kWh/day. Two WECS were selected to supply the energy demand each of size 6 kW. Th energy produced by the selected wind energy conversion system (WECS) is about 23,894 kWh/yr and the expected capacity factor at the site is about 23%. Modeling of energy demand of the house and simulation of its performance was performed using excel sheets and HOMER softare.

The commercial production of coal seam gas [CSG] in Australia is only a decade old. Over the last 10 years it has become a significant part of the Australian gas industry, particularly in Queensland where about 31 PJ or 30% of all natural gas used in the State was recovered from coal seams in eastern Queensland. In 2005 CSG was expected to have supplied 55 PJ or 44 % of the eastern Queensland gas demand. The mining, mineral processing and power generations in northwest Queensland, serviced by the Carpentaria Gas Pipeline, will continue to use gas from the Cooper-Eromanga Basin.The CSG industry is reaching a stage of maturity following the commissioning of a number of fields while some significant new projects are either in the commissioning phase or under development. By the end of 2008 CSG production in Queensland is expected to reach 150 PJ per year, the quantity needed to meet Gas Supply Agreements for CSG that are presently in place.Certified Proved and Probable (2P) gas reserves at 30 June 2005 in eastern Queensland were calculated to be 4,579 PJ, of which 4,283 PJ were CSG. Gas reserves (2P) for eastern Queensland a decade earlier were less than 100 PJ with those for CSG being less than 5 PJ.The coal seam gas industry in both the Bowen and Surat basins—which includes major gas producers such as Origin Energy Limited and Santos Limited along with smaller producers such as Arrow Energy NL, CH4 Gas Limited, Molopo Australia Limited and Queensland Gas Company Limited—is now accepted by major gas users as being suppliers of another reliable source of natural gas.

Along with the world population growth, the need for a source of electrical energy is higher, so a reliable system with higher capacities is expected. Renewable energy becomes an alternative that supports the goal of reducing the risk of disruption, thus increasing the distribution system’s reliability. A lot of industries and public settlement uses renewable sources of energy as an alternative power supply to comply their energy needs. This research uses wind turbine as a source of renewable energy in the distributed generation (DG). However, the required investment in wind-based DG is commonly considered too costly to deploy and require a proper planning on its placement method. The flower pollination algorithm (FPA) method could be a solution to achieve optimal placement of wind-based DG, thus increase the distribution system’s reliability, which is indicated by minimum energy not supplied (ENS) index.

Актуальність теми. Проблема надійного забезпечення споживачів електричною енергією є однією з найважливіших при вирішенні задач проектування та експлуатації систем електропостачання (СЕП) міст, промислових підприємств та окремих об’єктів. Вимоги з питань надійного електропостачання визначаються відповідними нормативними документами і мають бути беззаперечно враховані і виконані. І споживачам, і підприємствам електричних мереж завдається істотна шкода внаслідок вимушених перерв живлення. На будь-якому рівні інфраструктури електроенергетики забезпечення надійності електропостачання споживачів завжди було важливою науково-технічною проблемою, дослідженню і вирішенню якої присвячено численні роботи вчених та науководослідних і проектних організацій (КПІ, ТГУ, МЕІ та ін.). Основні напрямки досліджень: отримання, систематизація та опрацювання статистичної інформації, оцінювання її достовірності; розроблення адекватних розрахункових моделей з оцінювання та оптимізації надійності елементів, схем та системи електропостачання вцілому; визначення ефективних системних показників надійності та методів їх розрахунку і прийняття оптимальних рішень; економічні показники втрат споживачів та електропостачальних організацій від недоотримання та недовідпуску електричної енергії. Загальний аналіз роботи електричних мереж на даний момент показує, що технічний їх стан є незадовільним, спостерігається старіння обладнання, що прогресує, та, відповідно, зниження показників надійності елементів та систем електропостачання. Більш того, постійне ускладнення структури та поява нових елементів мереж потребує розвитку теорії вирішення задач оцінювання і підвищення надійності енергозабезпечення. Відповідно, з’являється необхідність розробки методології прийняття рішень на стадіях будівництва, реконструкції та експлуатації розподільних електричних мереж (РЕМ). При оцінюванні надійності систем електрозабезпечення споживачів зазвичай розглядають такі показники, як ймовірність випадкової події перерви в електропостачанні, випадкова величина недовідпуску електричної енергії споживачам (що мала місце за результатами подій, що відбулися, або прогнозована, розрахункова), реальні або прогнозовані збитки споживачів або електропостачальної організації. Проведений аналіз свідчить про те, що показники пошкоджуваності елементів розподільних мереж та значення збитків, що несуть споживачі, практично завжди залежать від конкретних умов. Більш того, навіть для одних і тих же умов експлуатації мають місце коливання інтегрованих за рік показників пошкоджуваності елементів мереж в рази, тобто більш ніж на 100 відсотків. Це свідчить про те, що в умовах кожної системи необхідно проводити аналіз даних аварійної статистики з визначенням реальних факторів впливу на вихідні розрахункові показники (довжин ліній, схемних рішень, кількості вузлів та інші) Так само має розглядатись і враховуватись при визначені збитків (що мали місце або прогнозованих) їх суттєва залежність від сезону, часу доби, а також в значній мірі – від того, скільки часу тривала перерва в живленні споживача. Аналіз статистичної інформації свідчить про суттєву нестабільність, нестаціонарність показників, що використовуються при формуванні розрахункових моделей, оцінюванні надійності схем. Системний підхід до питання розроблення більш ефективних моделей та методів оцінки надійності розподільних мереж є як ніколи актуальним. Мета та завдання дослідження. Метою роботи є формування методології оцінювання достовірності вихідних параметрів надійності РЕМ, що визначаються по обмеженим обсягам даних аварійної статистики, та впливу прийнятих розрахункових моделей на результати обчислення показників надійності мережі. Відповідно до мети, в роботі вирішувались наступні завдання:  аналіз інформації щодо функціонування розподільних електричних мереж;  оцінка достовірності вихідних показників надійності, визначення і урахування впливових факторів, законів розподілу випадкових величин;  вибір та порівняння розрахункових моделей оцінювання надійності розподільних електричних мереж напругою 6-10 кВ на підставі опрацювання отриманих даних аварійної статистики;  послідовність реалізації системного підходу до аналізу статистичної інформації та здійсненню оцінювання надійності електропостачання. Об’єкт дослідження – розподільні мережі систем електропостачання міст. Предмет дослідження - математичні моделі та методи оцінки надійності систем електропостачання, з урахуванням особливості умов експлуатації та обсягів отримуваної вихідної інформації. Методи дослідження. Основу виконаних досліджень склали такі методи: – нелінійне програмування – метод дискретного покоординатного спуску для прийняття рішень з оптимізації точок розмикання мережі; – теорія ймовірності – використовується для оцінки впливу похибок вихідної інформації на точність визначення втрат потужності і значення ймовірного недовідпуску електричної енергії споживачам при розрахунках показників надійності; – математична статистика – для побудови гістограм розподілу згідно даних аварійної статистики, а також визначення законів розподілу та їх параметрів; для опису кривих, що показують залежність можливої похибки розрахунку значень від об’єму статистичних даних що стосуються показників надійності; – метод статистичних випробувань (Монте-Карло) – для визначення впливу похибок вихідної інформації на прийняття рішень за умови мінімізації недовідпуску електричної енергії споживачам. Елементи наукової новизни одержаних результатів. 1. Реалізовано комплексний підхід при вирішенні питань оцінки похибок вихідної інформації та їх впливу на розрахункові моделі, а саме на достовірність. 2. Запропонована методологія оцінювання впливу достовірності вихідної інформації на значення розрахункових показників надійності розподільних мереж при використанні заходів та методів уточнення показників, які визначаються. 3. Проведено згладжування статистичних розподілів даних аварійної статистики та порівняльний аналіз розрахункових моделей, що враховують індивідуальні фактори. 4. Оцінено вплив прийнятих розрахункових моделей на результати оптимізації режимів розподільних мереж виходячи з мінімізації втрат потужності і врахування надійності забезпечення споживачів електричною енергією. Практичне значення одержаних результатів. У магістерській дисертації отримано наукові результати, що мають цінність для підприємств електричних мереж у питаннях збору, систематизації інформації для її подальшої обробки для отримання параметрів розрахункових моделей. Завдяки цьому значно підвищується достовірність вихідної інформації, розрахункових моделей, а також безпосередньо розрахунків показників надійності розподільних мереж.
Actuality of theme. The problem of reliable supply of electricity to consumers is one of the most important in solving the problems of designing and operating power systems (EPS) of cities, industrial enterprises and individual objects. Requirements for reliable electricity supply are defined by the relevant regulatory documents and must be clearly considered and implemented. Both consumers and businesses are seriously harmed by forced power outages. At any level of electricity infrastructure, ensuring the reliability of electricity supply to consumers has always been an important scientific and technical problem, the research and solution of which is devoted to the numerous works of scientists and research and design organizations (KPI, TSU, MEI, etc.). Main directions of research: obtaining, systematization and processing of statistical information, evaluation of its reliability; development of adequate calculation models for evaluation and optimization of reliability of elements, circuits and power supply system as a whole; determination of effective systemic reliability indicators and methods of their calculation and making optimal decisions; economic indicators of losses of consumers and power supply organizations from under-receipt and under-release of electricity. General analysis of the operation of electrical networks at the moment shows that their technical condition is unsatisfactory, there is an aging equipment, progressing, and, consequently, a decrease in the reliability of the elements and power systems. Moreover, the constant complexity of the structure and the emergence of new network elements requires the development of a theory of solving the problems of estimating and improving the reliability of energy supply. Accordingly, there is a need to develop a decision-making methodology at the stages of construction, reconstruction and operation of distribution grids (DG). In assessing the reliability of consumer electricity systems, such indicators as the probability of an accidental event of a power outage, the accidental magnitude of unavailability of electricity to consumers (which occurred as a result of events that have occurred or are predicted, calculated) are usually considered, real or projected losses of consumers or electricity supply organization. The analysis shows that the damage rates of the elements of distribution networks and the value of losses borne by consumers almost always depend on the specific conditions. Moreover, even for the same operating conditions, fluctuations in the integrity indicators of network elements are occasionally fluctuated, by more than 100 percent. This indicates that in the conditions of each system it is necessary to analyze the data of the accident statistics with the determination of the real factors of influence on the original design indicators (lengths of lines, circuit decisions, number of nodes, etc.) It should also be considered and taken into account when determining the losses (which occurred or projected) their essential dependence on the season, time of day, and also - to a large extent - on how long the break in the power supply of the consumer. The analysis of statistical information indicates a significant instability, non-stationarity of indicators used in the formation of calculation models, evaluation of the reliability of schemes. The systematic approach to developing more efficient models and methods of assessing the reliability of distribution networks is more relevant than ever. The purpose and tasks of the study. The purpose of the work is to develop a methodology for evaluating the reliability of the original parameters of the reliability of the SEM, which are determined by the limited amount of data of the accident statistics, and the influence of the adopted calculation models on the results of calculating the network reliability indicators. Research objectives:  analysis of information on the functioning of distribution electric networks;  assessment of reliability of baseline reliability indicators, determination and consideration of influential factors, laws of distribution of random variables;  selection and comparison of calculation models of reliability estimation of distribution electric networks with voltage of 6-10 kV on the basis of processing of received data of emergency statistics;  sequence of implementation of the systematic approach to statistical analysis information and assessing the reliability of electricity supply. Object of research - Distribution networks of power supply systems of cities. Subject of research - Mathematical models, methods for assessing the reliability of power supply systems, taking into account the peculiarities of operating conditions and the amount of received information. Research methods. The basis of the performed research was the following methods:  nonlinear programming - a method of discrete coordinate descent for making decisions on the optimization of network breakpoints;  probability theory - is used to estimate the effect of initial information errors on the accuracy of determining power losses and the value of the probable non-release of electricity to consumers when calculating reliability indicators;  mathematical statistics - for plotting distribution histograms according to emergency statistics, as well as determining distribution laws and their parameters; to describe the curves showing the dependence of a possible error in the calculation of values on the volume of statistics relating to reliability indicators;  statistical test method (Monte Carlo) - to determine the impact of errors of initial information on decision making, while minimizing the lack of electricity to consumers. Elements of scientific novelty of the obtained results. 1. A comprehensive approach was implemented in addressing the issues of estimation of source information errors and their impact on the calculation models, namely reliability. 2. A methodology for estimating the impact of the reliability of the source information on the value of the calculated reliability indicators of the distribution networks when using measures and methods of refining the indicators that are determined is proposed. 3. Smoothing of statistical distributions of data of emergency statistics and comparative analysis of calculation models taking into account individual factors is carried out. 4. The influence of the adopted calculation models on the results of the optimization of the modes of distribution networks is estimated, based on the minimization of power losses and taking into account the reliability of providing consumers with electricity. The practical value of the results. In the master's thesis the scientific results are obtained that are of value for the enterprises of electric networks in the issues of collection, systematization of information for its further processing in order to obtain the parameters of the calculation models. This significantly increases the reliability of the source information, the calculation models, as well as directly calculating the reliability of distribution networks.

Universal access to electricity stands high on the global agenda and is regarded as essential for positive development in sectors such as health care, education, poverty reduction, food production and climate change. Decentralized, off-grid electrification is deemed an important complement to centralized grid extension. By utilizing a renewable energy source, solar technology for the generation of electricity, photovoltaics (PV) is being considered as a way forward to minimize the environmental problems related to energy use. This thesis aims to contribute to improving the technical and social feasibility of PV and PV-diesel hybrid micro-grids for the purpose of providing access to electricity to people in rural areas of countries with low level access to electricity. In line with these general aims, the focus has been to address three questions related to challenges in three phases of rural electrification. The work has a multi-disciplinary approach, addressing mainly technical and social aspects of long-term sustainability of micro-grids, in a local context, and the changes these are intended to generate. One specific micro-grid in Tanzania has been used as a major case study. The thesis is developed through three papers, all presenting methodologies or aspects for investigation in rural electrification projects and studies in general, and for PV-diesel hybrid micro-grids in particular. Paper I puts forward a methodology to facilitate non-social scientific researchers to take social aspects increasingly into consideration. Paper II is a guideline to support system users to increasingly apply an evaluation based system operation. Paper III specifically highlights the importance to consider blackouts when investigating how an existing off-grid PV-diesel hybrid system shall be utilized when a national grid becomes available.

The ignition process is a critical consideration for combustion devices. External energy transfer to the combustor is required for ignition in common combustion systems. There are many ways to deposit energy into the flow but a standard method is a spark discharge because it is simple, compact, and reliable. Sparks can be categorized as either inductive or capacitive sparks that use a coil or an electrical resonance circuit with capacitor, respectively, to amplify the voltage. The creation of a successful ignition event depends on the spark energy deposited into the flow, the initial composition, pressure, temperature, turbulence level of flow etc. The deposited energy by the spark into the flow is critical for estimation of initial energy available for ignition of the mixture. Therefore, the electrical characteristics of the sparks were investigated under various flow conditions. Then measurements of deposited energy into the flow were conducted using a very accurate experimental procedure that was developed in this research. The results showed considerable electric energy losses to the electrodes for the relatively long, inductive sparks. However, the short, capacitive spark deposits electric energy into the flow with minimal loss (above 90% deposition efficiency). In addition, the characteristics of inductive spark are affected by flow velocity and by the existence of a flame. However, variations in the flow conditions do not affect the characteristics of the capacitive spark such as voltage-current time trace and energy deposition efficiency. Two ignition systems using above mentioned two spark types were developed. First, the capacitive spark energy was directly deposited into the premixed flow. Most researchers have not concentrated on the early initiation process but on the flame growth. Therefore, the generated kernel formed by the energy deposition was observed and characterized using optical methods, immediately following the spark. In addition, the mixing effect for this ignition kernel with surrounding gas was simulated using a numerical method. Based on the time trace of the OH* chemiluminescence, the reaction starts with the discharge and it is continuous until combustion begins. This means that in the presence of a high density spark in premixed flow, there exists no traditional delay as defined by other researchers for auto ignition. A simple Radical Jet Generator (RJG) was developed that is able to ignite and stabilize a flame in a high-speed flow. The inductive spark initiates the combustion in the RJG chamber. The RJG then injects the partially-burned products carrying large amounts of heat and radicals into a rapidly moving flammable main stream. Then it ignites and stabilizes a flame. The RJG requires low levels of electrical power as long as the flow velocity is relatively low since most of the radicals are produced by the incomplete combustion in its chamber. The importance of radicals was analyzed by RJG experiments and numerical methods. The reaction zone for RJG using a rich mixture was located both inside and outside of the RJG chamber. Therefore, the RJG using a rich mixture performed better in the ignition and stabilization of combustion in the main flow. According to an analysis using the CHEMKIM simulation software combined with the San Diego chemical mechanism, the RJG jet resulting from a rich mixture contains more radicals and intermediates than that produced by a lean mixture for the same sensible enthalpy. In addition, the burned gas contains less radicals and intermediates than the partially burned gas. If the RJG is operating with a high speed main flow, the flow rate through the RJG chamber must be increased to allow the radical jet to penetrate well into the rapid flow due to their higher injection velocity. Unfortunately, this leads to unsteady combustion in the RJG, which results in the pulsation of the radical jet. This reduces the number of radicals injected into the main flow. To investigate this operating condition, special attention was focused on four possible factors: unburned reactant pockets caused by motion of the spark channel, spark frequency, flame propagation speed and ignition delay. It was shown that the unsteadiness is affected by the flame speed and ignition delay because the frequency of pulsation in the chamber is highly dependent on the equivalence ratio. In addition, the interaction between the RJG operation and the combustion dynamics in the main combustor was documented. The acoustic pressure oscillations in the main combustor were suppressed when the RJG jet was turned on because the reaction region is relocated by the operation of the RJG.

In this thesis project, a building in Vegagatan 12, Gävle has been analysed. The main objective has been to find why it consumes more energy than it was expected and to solve theoretically the problems.This building is a low energy building certified by Miljöbyggnad which should use less than 55kWh/m2 year and nowadays it is using 62.23 kWh/m2. In order to find why the building is using more energy than the expected several different things has been measured and analyzed.First of all, the heat exchanger of the ventilation unit has been theoretically examined to see if it works as it should and it does. This has been done using the definition of the heat exchangers.Secondly, the heating system has been analysed by measuring the internal temperature of the building and high temperatures have been found (around 22°C) in the apartments and in the corridors. This leads to 5-10% more use of energy per degree.Thirdly, the position and the necessity of all the heaters have been checked. One of the heaters may not make sense, at least in the way the building has been constructed. This leads to bigger heating needs than the expected.Fourthly, the taps and shower heads have been checked to see if they were efficient. Efficient taps and shower heads, reduce the hot water use up to 40%. The result of this analysis has been that all taps and shower heads are efficient.Fifthly, the hot water system has been studied and some heat losses have been found because the lack of insulation of several pipes. Because of this fact 8.37kWh/m2 are lost per year. This analysis has been carried out with the help of an infra red camera and a TA SCOPE.Sixthly, the theoretical and real U values of the different walls have been obtained and compared (concrete and brick walls). As a conclusion, the concrete wall has been well constructed but, the brick wall has not been well constructed. Because of this fact 1 kWh/m2 of heat are lost every year. Apart from that, windows and thermal bridges have also been checked.

Electricity generation through solar photovoltaic (PV) technology has been one of the leading renewable energy generation options in the global arena and in many countries that are working to address increasing energy demand and high fuel import dependencies. Due to the feed in tariff (FIT) amendment in 2011 and decreasing costs in global PV sector, the interest in this emerging market is quickly increasing in Turkey. The aim of this thesis is to explore the prospects for development of the solar PV market in Turkey, considering residential, commercial and utility scale PV systems with rooftop or ground mounted installations. The economic situation, the energy profile, regulatory framework for solar energy and the market conditions in the country were researched. The ultimate purpose was to assess the overall conditions to attract investors, and estimate the development of the solar PV market growth in Turkey particularly in the next few years. High irradiation levels, limited domestic energy resources and high interest in license applications suggest a big potential for solar PV electricity in Turkey. However, the regulatory framework is not yet suitable for a fast growth of this emerging solar PV market in the country due to lack of political support and experience in related government functions. Despite the high interest and demand for commercial systems, the solar PV market in Turkey is expected to grow linearly as a start. This contrast with precedents in leading European markets, which experienced exponential growth at the beginning. This study shows that there is a need for performance improvement within the regulative authorities, time for stakeholders to experience the market and more comprehensive and stable legislation. However, in the long term, solar PV technology is expected to gain high competitive advantage due to improving financial conditions in the country, increase in electricity prices (e.g. grid parity has already been reached for residential systems), and cost reductions for PV components around the world.

Reduction of carbon emissions is understood to be vital to help mitigate catastrophic climate change. In Europe, 40% of energy use is attributed to the built environment (European Commission, 2010), with a large proportion of this from dwellings. In line other legislation for decarbonisation under the Climate Change Act of 2008, the UK Government has agreed that all new housing will be ‘zero carbon’ from 2016 onwards. From a technical aspect this task is feasible using improved insulation performance, more airtight building techniques, efficient servicing, and renewable energy technologies. In practice however, post-occupancy evaluation studies highlight a discrepancy between design energy use and measured energy performance, with a tendency for real buildings to use more energy than designed and for projects regarded as ‘low energy’ in design to use an equivalent amount of energy as a pre-existing counterpart (Bordass, 2001; Branco, Lachal, Gallinelli, & Weber, 2004; Gill, Tierney, Pegg, & Allan, 2011). This difference between design and use - ‘the design gap’ - is attributed to both the physical ‘hard’ features of the building (form, area, systems) and occupant-driven or ‘soft’ features (ventilation & heating preferences) by a number of studies (Guerra Santin, Itard, & Visscher, 2009; Socolow, 1978). This body of work begins with a review of the field and state of the art - occupant influence on energy use in a domestic environment. The first contribution to knowledge is in the adapted utilisation of a piece of software by Richardson et al. which stochastically generated electricity use profiles for homes which are shown to be similar to measured energy usage, both in net energy use and in load profiles (Richardson, Thomson, & Infield, 2008). This adapted software was implemented to generate appliance use profiles for a number of dwelling models. These results are then interrogated and a regression model proposed based on a number of dependent variables identified in the input profiles. The theory of planned behaviour is used to underpin a survey in which a number of households are asked to comment on their attitude and behaviour with regards to energy use in the home – the homes in this case being new-build Passivhaus council-housing in Devon. The results of this project form the second aspect of this work’s contribution to knowledge.

Value at risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) are commonly used risk measures in the financial literature. They have however not been applied to a great extent on energy derivatives. This paper compares the performance of several VaR and ES models for energy commodity futures on some of the world’s largest commodity exchanges. In total 14 different VaR models and nine ES models are evaluated; GARCH and GJR-GARCH with normal, student t, GED and skewed student t distributions and EWQR are used to obtain both VaR and ES forecasts. In addition, five CAViaR models are used in the VaR analysis.EWQR is by far the best ES model. It has very good test results for all markets and quantiles considered. The VaR results vary greatly, and there does not appear to be any clear pattern in which some models are better suited for certain markets or commodities. The VaR models with best performance overall are however EWQR, the adaptive CAViaR and GARCH and GJR-GARCH models with student t and skewed student t distributions.

The 2050 national energy scenarios as planned by the DECC, academia and industry specify a range of different decarbonised supply side technologies combined with the electrification of transportation and heating. Little attention is paid to the household demand side; indeed within many scenarios a high degree of domestic Demand Side Management (DSM) is implicit if the National Grid is to maintain supply-demand balance. A top-down, bottom-up hybrid model named Shed-able Household Energy Demand (SHED) has been developed and the results of which presented within this thesis. SHED models six published national energy scenarios, including three from the Department for Energy and Climate Change, in order to provide a broad coverage of the possible energy scenario landscape. The objective of which is to quantify the required changes in current household energy demand patterns via DSM, as are implicit under these highly electricity dominated scenarios, in order to maintain electrical supply-demand balance at the national level. The frequency and magnitude of these required household DSM responses is quantified. SHED performs this by modelling eleven years of supply-demand dynamics on the hourly time step, based on the assumptions of the published energy scenarios as well as weather data from around 150 weather stations around the UK and National Grid historic electricity demand data. The bottom-up component of SHED is populated by 1,000 households hourly gas and electricity demand data from a recently released dataset from a smart metering trial in Ireland. This aggregate pool of households enables national domestic DSM dynamics to be disaggregated to the aggregate household level. Using household classifications developed by the Office for National Statistics three typical ' households are identified within the aggregate pool and algorithms developed to investigate the possible required responses from these three households. SHED is the first model of its kind to connect national energy scenarios to the implications these scenarios may have on households consumption of energy at a high temporal resolution. The analysis of the top-down scenario modelling shows significant periods where electrical demand exceeds supply within all scenarios, within many scenarios instances exist where the deficit is unserviceable due to lack of sufficient spare capacity either side of the deficit period. Considering the level of participation required within the modelled scenarios in order to balance the electricity system and the current lack in understanding of smart metering and Time-Of-Use (TOU) tariffs within households, it would seem there is a disconnect between the electricity system being planned, the role this system expects of households and the role households are willing to play.

Cette étude s’intéresse à la conception systémique intégrant simultanément les questions de dimensionnement et de gestion optimale de l'énergie. Le système étudié concerne un procédé de pompage intégrant un processus de dessalement d’eaux saumâtres alimenté par des sources de puissance hybrides renouvelable incluant un minimum de stockage électrochimique. Ce cas d’étude appartient à une classe typique de systèmes autonomes alimentés par des sources intermittentes dont profil de puissance a une forme "donnée" : « selon les conditions climatiques (ensoleillement, vent), avec un minimum de stockage d’électricité, la puissance offerte doit être convertie ou stockée hydrauliquement sous peine d’être gaspillée ». L'influence des conditions d'environnement et la robustesse du processus d’optimisation est enfin aussi discutée dans cette thèse. Deux types de modèles mathématiques, dynamiques et quasi-statiques, sont mis en œuvre pour décrire l'ensemble du dispositif. Le système est tout d’abord modélisé dynamiquement par Bond Graphs. Pour une simulation plus rapide, plus adaptée à l’optimisation globale du système, un modèle quasi-statique est créé pour être simulé dans l'environnement Matlab. Pour de tels dispositifs, étant donné une certaine puissance offerte au fil du vent et du soleil, trouver le point optimal de fonctionnement à chaque période consiste en un partage de puissance entre les sous systèmes de pompage et de traitement de l’eau : ce processus est plutôt complexe compte tenu des non linéarités (courbes rendement – puissance) et de la présence de nombreuses contraintes relatives aux limitations de puissance des pompes, aux conditions de niveau des réservoirs, ainsi qu’aux limitations de pression et de débit dans les processus hydrauliques (pompes osmoseur). Nous montrerons qu’il n’est pas si trivial de choisir une fonction objectif qui assure simultanément la performance et la robuste du système vis-à-vis des conditions d’environnement : une fonction objectif robuste quel que soit le profil de puissance des sources est ainsi proposée pour mettre en œuvre une gestion optimale de l’énergie. Le problème d’optimisation étant posé sous forme standard, consistant en la maximisation d’une fonction objectif sous contraintes, des approches d’optimisation efficaces par programmation non linéaire sont employées. La question du dimensionnement et son couplage à la gestion énergétique est finalement étudiée. En particulier, l’intérêt de la modularité des systèmes, considérant plusieurs pompes connectées en parallèle pour la même fonction, est investigué
This study focuses on systemic design, integrating simultaneously issues of sizing and optimal energy management. The system under study consists of a pumping process including a brackish water desalination system fed by hybrid renewable power sources with minimum electrochemical storage. Such a device belongs to the class of “autonomous systems” supplied by intermittent sources whose power profile has a “given” waveform: “with minimum electrical storage, power has to be converted, stored in water tanks, or wasted following climatic (sun, wind) conditions”. Influence of environment conditions and robustness of the optimization process is then also discussed in this thesis. Both dynamic and quasi static models are implemented for representing the whole system. The device is firstly modeled dynamically by Bond Graph methodology. For faster simulations, which are more suitable for system optimization, a quasi static model is created to be simulated in the Matlab environment. For such systems, given a certain source power, finding optimal operation point at each period consists of a power sharing between all pumping devices: it is a complex process with huge nonlinearities (efficiency vs power curves) and with many constraints as for the limitation of pump powers, tank level conditions, or pressure and flow limitations in hydraulic network and pumping devices. It is not so trivial to define an objective function which ensures system performance and robustness versus environment conditions: a convenient objective function, whatever the input power profile, is then proposed to implement the optimal management. The optimization problem being mathematically expressed, consisting of objective function maximization under constraints, efficient optimization methods by non linear programming are implemented. The issue of sizing and its coupling with system management efficiency is finally studied. In particular, the interest of modular operation with several pumps connected in parallel is also concerned in this research

The program starts on Sunday (August 8th) with two panel discussion sessions, one on “Energy, Environment and Economy” and the other one on “Energy and Education” where current challenges, potential solutions, opportunities and future directions are discussed by the leading experts. The program opens its technical sessions on Monday with the formal opening talks where the TUBA President, Minister of Industry and Technology, and Minister of Energy and Natural Resources deliver their speeches. The program continues with 29 plenary/ keynote speakers, 27 invited speakers and over 121 general speakers on four days which make an exceptionally designed conference in the area of energy science and technology. It then ends on Thursday (August 12th) with a panel discussion session and closing remarks. Furthermore, there are general sessions where many research talks are delivered by researchers, scientists, engineers, and technologists to disseminate high-quality research results and present new findings. Local and global online participations are expected from academia, government agencies, and industry to bring all players together, and the conference is then expected to lead to effective and fruitful discussions and collaborations among these attendants from different disciplines, institutes, and sectors from all over the world. Moreover, it is planned to have some special issues in various reputable international journals to publish high-quality papers out of the conference.

How do households consume and spend on energy? What are the drivers of their spending and consumption patterns? How does energy consumption has evolved? What is to be expected as the region climbs the development ladder? What are the distributive implications of different energy pricing approaches? This book looks at these questions and examines which policies work in reducing energy poverty and increasing energy savings. The authors unveil the growing household demand of better quality of energy and show that to achieve more cost-effective and progressive public policies, it is necessary to strengthen the transparency and sustainability of energy pricing while having into account the consumer behavioral responses. This volume is a resource for designing energy policies based on an empirical understanding of the household’s energy needs.

‘How microbes operate’ considers the mechanisms that sustain prokaryotic and eukaryotic microorganisms. All active cells must be supplied with water and an energy source. Absorption of water is essential, even in extremely dry or salty habitats, because the enzymes that catalyse biochemical reactions in cells do not work unless they are hydrated. Sunlight powers the metabolism of photosynthetic microbes and others glean chemical energy from a plenitude of terrestrial sources. Extremes in temperature, acidity, and other environmental variables place additional constraints upon microbial life, but bacteria, archaea, and eukaryotic microorganisms thrive in most places where liquid water is available.

Human Physiology: A Very Short Introduction explores how the human body works, senses, reacts, and defends itself. Physiology is the science of life. It considers how human bodies are supplied with energy, how they maintain their internal parameters, the ways in which they gather and process information or take action, and the creation of new generations. This VSI examines the experiments undertaken to understand the interplay of the vast variety of physiological mechanisms and principles within us, and analyses the ethical issues involved. It also looks at how enhanced understandings of physiological knowledge can help inform medical research and care.

AbstractThe buildings sector in the EU consumes 40% of energy and is responsible for 36% of CO2 emissions. With growing public interest on the subject, there have been several EU policies developed to curb impacts. Statistical analysis conducted in the case study indicates an increase in both total and buildings’ energy consumption trends leading up to 2030, with total energy consumption having an expected value of 40% increase and building energy consumption having an expected value of 33% increase. Analysis results indicate that building energy consumption could be maintained at current levels if a proactive approach is embraced. Focusing solely on buildings’ energy consumption does not solve national or regional energy problems, but neglecting them altogether prevents significant gains to be made. Building energy efficiency is not the solution by itself to achieve energy goals in EU, but is an important contributor toward the solution.

The University of Iowa Power Plant operates utility generation and distribution for campus facilities, including electricity, steam, and chilled water. It is desirable to evaluate the optimal load combination of boilers, engines and chillers to meet the demand at minimal cost, particularly for future demand scenarios. An algorithm is under development which will take into account the performance of individual units as part of the mix which ultimately supplies the campus and determine the degree that each should be operating to most efficiently meet demand. The algorithm will be part of an integrated simulation tool which is specifically designed to apply traditional optimization techniques for a given (both current and possible) circumstance. The second component is to couple the algorithm with accurate estimates and historical data through which expected demand could be predicted. The process will be able to account for theoretical circumstances which will be highly beneficial for strategic planning. It is also necessary to determine the unique operating characteristics of the system components. The algorithm will rely upon performance curves of individual system components (boiler, chiller, etc) and those must be developed and refined when possible using the most accurate information from experimental testing and commissioning or manufacturer supplied data. The heuristics that will be examined include combinatorial approach, a gradient-based incremental method, and simulated annealing.

A proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) is an electrochemical device that converts the chemical energy from the gases into electrical energy. The PEMFCs consist of many parts, and the current collector plate is one of the key components among them. Channels in the bipolar plate distribute air on the cathode side and hydrogen on the anode side. Theoretically a fuel cell produces more current as more fuel is supplied. However the way in which the gases are supplied affects dramatically the performance of the cell. The present paper shows how the mixed flows improve the current density produced by fuel cells. Polarization and power density curves are presented. The results suggest that a flow with two levels of bifurcations is preferred for the anode side. This behavior is expected due to the similitude with the performance of the natural world in which geometries with this type of bifurcations transport the nutrients inside the tree leaves and plants.

Thermal evaporation of moisture from clothes is the main technique used in clothes dryers today. Most of the energy supplied is spent to provide the latent heat of evaporation of water (2.5MJ/kg). This paper presents a novel direct contact ultrasonic system to mechanically remove water from wet fabric. The vibrations from the transducers are transferred by direct contact to the water inside the narrow pores of the clothes. Breaking the capillary adhesion of moisture at the interface between air and water allows water to exit the clothes as cold mist. The cold mist also carries with it most impurities such as minerals or detergents. This cannot be achieved in thermal dryers where water evaporates and leaves the impurities behind. Mechanical extraction of water is expected to be more efficient since thermal processing is not required. The majority of the supplied energy is used to mechanically separate water from the fabric. Initial testing has revealed that it is possible to dry a 1 cm2 piece of fabric from full saturation to a mere 0.4 % moisture content in just 14 seconds.

Heat rate in a power plant cycle is a calculated value expressed as the ratio of the amount of heat supplied to the cycle divided by the amount of power that is generated. It is directly affected by the heat source and associated auxiliaries, the prime mover, the regenerative feedwater heating cycle and, the heat sink. Heat rate computations also suffer from imprecision/time lags associated with fuel flow measurements, difficulties/uncertainties in determination of the actual amount of heat supplied to the power plant cycle and, measurement of the power that is generated. Consequently, many power plant owners and operators have reservations as to the intrinsic value of heat rate as a performance metric, since detailed analysis and evaluation of the underlying causes and issues are essential to account for deviations from predicted or expected values. Several innovations and advances have paved the way for real-time monitoring, trending, analyzing, evaluating, diagnosing and optimizing power generating asset performance. Using a coal-fired unit as a representative case study, this paper provides an overview of how technical/technological advances in optimizing power generating asset performance facilitate concomitant optimization of heat rate.

A gas turbine combuster has been designed to burn coal derived syngas with a lower heating value (LHV) of less than 3700 kJ/Nm3 (100 Btu/scf). The new Piloted Syngas Burner (PSB) is designed to operate with a continuous propane pilot during syngas firing to maintain flame stability. The amount of propane supplied to the pilot can be adjusted in response to a burner noise measurement or other indications of flame stability, with the ultimate goal of operating only on syngas. The burner has a very large combustion volume to promote burnout of less than 3700 kJ/Nm3 syngas and incorporates a high-efficiency liner cooling scheme, to allow utilization of high energy fuel for starting and backup. The PSB is being tested at the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Power Systems Development Facility (PSDF) in Wilsonville, AL, where it replaces the usual six combustor cans in a Rolls-Royce Allison 501-KM gas turbine. Syngas is supplied to the burner from a Transport Reactor coal gasifier. Initial operation of the PSB on propane startup fuel was successfully conducted during February 2003, and initial operation on syngas was successfully conducted during October 2003. The paper will discuss the results of the initial propane and syngas operation. The PSB is expected to be operated extensively in 2004.

This paper presents the process design and the energy analysis for a coal-fired power plant based on pressurised oxycoal combustion and including carbon capture technologies. A combustion technology performing a pressurised combustion of coal in an atmosphere of O2/CO2/H2O and including flue gases recycling has been selected. Combustion and steam production occur in separated equipments and the combustor’s design allows achieving high ash removal efficiency. The Rankine cycle has been chosen as the most viable thermodynamic cycle in a short-term scenario. Oxygen required by the combustion process is supplied by a cryogenic Air Separation Unit (ASU) and a double-reheat ultrasupercritical cycle is employed with main steam conditions of 250bar/605°C and reheat steam temperatures of 605°C/620°C. All choices related to thermal cycle selection and process design have been conducted upon the principle of feasibility and reliability. In order to increase net plant efficiency both sensible and latent heat is recovered from the flue gas stream before entering the purification and compression section. By operating in pressure it becomes possible to recover a larger amount of heat than in the atmospheric case. As a result, all low pressure steam bleedings and the corresponding regenerative heat exchangers can be eliminated. Process simulation is carried out in the paper and the expected efficiency is evaluated, as well as other cycle performance parameters. Since a relevant benefit may arise from the combustion of cheap coals, the impact of burning high-ash content and low ash-fusion-temperature coals is assessed. The impact of energy penalties associated to oxygen production and the benefit arising from high heat-transfer coefficients due to the increased pressure of the flue gas are deeply investigated.

Abstract Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) plants have the potential to provide dispatchable renewable power generation to support the baseload need currently supplied primarily by coal and nuclear plants and peaking power capability to reduce the use of natural gas for load following. However, these plants have had difficulty achieving widespread use due to the low cost of combined photovoltaic and battery systems capable of providing similar services to the electricity grid. A new generation of CSP technologies must be developed to reduce the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) to 6 cents/kWh by leveraging heat transfer fluids (HTF) capable of operation at higher temperatures and coupling with higher efficiency power conversion cycles. Three promising pathways for Generation 3 CSP (Gen3CSP) technology development have been funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) leveraging solid, liquid, and gaseous HTFs to transfer heat to a supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) Brayton cycle. The primary heat exchangers (PHX) necessary to couple these high-temperature HTFs to sCO2 are an essential new technology that must be demonstrated at a scale relevant to commercial CSP to validate design expectations for performance, lifetime, and operability. The demonstration of these PHXs need a reliable 1 MWth-scale sCO2 test system that can provide sCO2 coolant to the PHX in a compact package suitable for installation near any Gen3CSP thermal storage system. This paper outlines the final design of such a system including the expected operating range and off-design capabilities. The system uses a dense-phase high pressure canned motor pump as the sCO2 circulator and ambient air as the ultimate heat sink operating at pressures up to 250 bar and temperatures up to 715 °C with capability to supply up to 5.3 kg/s of sCO2 flow to the primary heat exchanger. Key component requirements for this system have been frozen and procurement is underway. The expected completion date for heated acceptance testing of this system is September of 2020. This system is also capable of being upgraded through the addition of a turbo-compressor and turbo-generator to operate as a complete sCO2 Brayton cycle with power generation in order to demonstrate an integrated solar to sCO2 power pilot plant and understand transient interactions between the thermal storage system, sCO2 turbomachinery, and ambient air temperature. In addition, this upgrade would provide experience with plant operating considerations including balancing charging the thermal storage system with generating and dispatching power to the electrical grid. A roadmap for this upgrade will be discussed including limitations and requirements for the necessary turbomachinery.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

After decades of rapid economic development, China is quickly becoming the world’s second-largest transport energy consumer. Recently, it has also surpassed the United States (U.S.) as the world’s largest oil importer, and it is expected to become the largest oil consumer by the early 2030s.

Due to their ability to distribute large amounts of renewable energy, District Heating Networks (DHN) are expected to exhibit a considerable development in the coming years. The ENRSIM software, cofounded by the French Renewable Energy Agency (ADEME), aims at providing a simple tool to size DHN production plants with renewable production units and storage.

Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) and other in-situ and remote sensing dielectric methods for determining the soil water content had become standard in both research and practice in the last two decades. Limitations of existing dielectric methods in some soils, and introduction of new agricultural measurement devices or approaches based on soil dielectric properties mandate improved understanding of the relationship between the measured effective permittivity (dielectric constant) and the soil water content. Mounting evidence indicates that consideration must be given not only to the volume fractions of soil constituents, as most mixing models assume, but also to soil attributes and ambient temperature in order to reduce errors in interpreting measured effective permittivities. The major objective of the present research project was to investigate the effects of the soil geometrical attributes and interfacial processes (bound water) on the effective permittivity of the soil, and to develop a theoretical frame for improved, soil-specific effective permittivity- water content calibration curves, which are based on easily attainable soil properties. After initializing the experimental investigation of the effective permittivity - water content relationship, we realized that the first step for water content determination by the Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) method, namely, the TDR measurement of the soil effective permittivity still requires standardization and improvement, and we also made more efforts than originally planned towards this objective. The findings of the BARD project, related to these two consequential steps involved in TDR measurement of the soil water content, are expected to improve the accuracy of soil water content determination by existing in-situ and remote sensing dielectric methods and to help evaluate new water content sensors based on soil electrical properties. A more precise water content determination is expected to result in reduced irrigation levels, a matter which is beneficial first to American and Israeli farmers, and also to hydrologists and environmentalists dealing with production and assessment of contamination hazards of this progressively more precious natural resource. The improved understanding of the way the soil geometrical attributes affect its effective permittivity is expected to contribute to our understanding and predicting capability of other, related soil transport properties such as electrical and thermal conductivity, and diffusion coefficients of solutes and gas molecules. In addition, to the originally planned research activities we also investigated other related problems and made many contributions of short and longer terms benefits. These efforts include: Developing a method and a special TDR probe for using TDR systems to determine also the soil's matric potential; Developing a methodology for utilizing the thermodielectric effect, namely, the variation of the soil's effective permittivity with temperature, to evaluate its specific surface area; Developing a simple method for characterizing particle shape by measuring the repose angle of a granular material avalanching in water; Measurements and characterization of the pore scale, saturation degree - dependent anisotropy factor for electrical and hydraulic conductivities; Studying the dielectric properties of cereal grains towards improved determination of their water content. A reliable evaluation of the soil textural attributes (e.g. the specific surface area mentioned above) and its water content is essential for intensive irrigation and fertilization processes and within extensive precision agriculture management. The findings of the present research project are expected to improve the determination of cereal grain water content by on-line dielectric methods. A precise evaluation of grain water content is essential for pricing and evaluation of drying-before-storage requirements, issues involving energy savings and commercial aspects of major economic importance to the American agriculture. The results and methodologies developed within the above mentioned side studies are expected to be beneficial to also other industrial and environmental practices requiring the water content determination and characterization of granular materials.

There is a high degree of freedom and flexibility in the way to integrate renewable process heat in industrial processes. Nearly in every industrial or commercial application various heat sinks can be found, which are suitable to be supplied by renewable heat, e.g. from solar thermal, heat pumps, biomass or others. But in contrast to conventional fossil fuel powered heating systems, most renewable heating technologies are more sensitive to the requirements defined by the specific demand of the industrial company. Fossil fuel-based systems benefit from their indifference to process temperatures in terms of energy efficiency, their flexibility with respect to part-load as well as on-off operation, and the fuel as a (unlimited) chemical storage. In contrast, the required temperature and the temporal course of the heat demand over the year determine whether a certain regenerative heat generator is technically feasible at all or at least significantly influence parameters like efficiency or coverage rate.