Academic literature on the topic 'Exports – India'

Purpose Medical device industry in India is a niche sector with few key players but it possesses huge potential for both domestic and international trade. In recent years, a number of regulatory relaxations have been provided to medical device manufacturers in India to enhance production and further trade especially exports. Though the industry is highly dependent on imports, the purpose of this paper is to identify key medical devices using the revealed comparative advantage, which can be exported from India by identifying new markets. Design/methodology/approach For the selected medical devices, India’s exports to the world and the newly identified markets are forecasted using the autoregressive integrated moving average model of regression. Findings It is seen that three major medical devices emerge to be the ones where India has the capacity and potential to manufacture and export. These medical devices are electro-cardiographs, magnetic resonance imaging apparatus and oscilloscopes and oscillographs being exported to the USA, Australia; China and the USA, respectively, which is rising in recent years. Research limitations/implications As the forecasted values indicate that there is an increasing potential in exports from India to the world of the selected medical devices, there is an urgent need to develop this industry and enhance exports from India. Very few studies have been carried out to examine and forecast exports from specific sectors or industries which is the need of the hour now. Originality/value The paper also provides suggestions to exporters and policymakers on leveraging the future export potential of selected medical devices.

The Asian countries are the major destinations for the Indian dairy exports. The buoyancy in import demand of dairy products in Asian countries due to growing size of their markets resulting from population growth and changing food preferences, offers opportunities for Indian dairy industry to increase their exports. This paper examines export trends of India's dairy products in Asian markets, analyzes the import demand and relative price elasticity of the Indian dairy exports and presents short-term export forecast in select Asian destinations. The analysis is based on HS 4- and 8-digit level data of the India's export to 40 Asian countries during 1991-2004. The results indicate that although presently India is a minor player in Asian markets and exports are moderately to highly instable in most of the destinations, the potential exports can increase substantially.

This article seeks to provide an overview of the evolution and analyses the changing composition of trade between India and China over the period 1983–2017. We find that Chinese exports are almost completely concentrated in manufactures, especially finished equipment goods, whereas Indian exports consist of both agriculture and manufactures and over time have shifted predominantly to intermediate goods. Further, both the countries are exporting those commodities to each other in which they have a revealed comparative advantage, with China’s exports being more diversified. We employ vector error correction estimation and show that China’s exports to India are dependent on India’s household consumption expenditure, while India’ exports to China are correlated to Chinese manufacturing value added. Finally, we calculate the share of each country’s commodity-wise export to the partner in their respective total exports with a view to studying prospects for India–China trade. We conclude that for further trade expansion, diversification is extremely necessary, and Indian exports of inputs to Chinese industries need to change substantially to accommodate the changing nature of China’s industrial structure. JEL: F14, F15, O24

Purpose – This paper aims to analyse the relationship between exports and non-export gross domestic product (GDP) in the context of Indian economy during 1988-2012. It considers export both at aggregate and disaggregated levels to examine whether export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis is sensitive to types of goods India exports. Design/methodology/approach – The OLS-based autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model has been employed to analyse the potential long-run equilibrium relationship. Further, the error correction model within the ARDL framework is applied to examine the short-run and long-run causal relationship between non-export GDP, export and other variables. The study is based on secondary data. Findings – The study indicates that at aggregate level, exports do not have any significant impact on output of non-export sector, and therefore, it is maintained that ELG hypothesis is not valid at aggregate level in India; when the authors disaggregate exports into merchandise and services exports, the latter has been found to have positive spillover effects on non-export sector of the economy. However, the association between merchandise export and non-export GDP is found to be statistically insignificant. When the authors further disaggregated merchandise exports, the authors observed that primary-product export has a negative association with non-export GDP, but export of manufacturing products found to have a significant positive impact on non-export GDP. Finally, export of petroleum product shows a negative long-run association with non-export GDP, but the association is statistically insignificant. Originality/value – It is not the case that India can simply increase its exports per se and be sure of witnessing economic growth, but instead it is the composition and the concentration of these exports that matters.

In the Indian gems and jewellery industry, the cottage industry-based diamonds-processing and jewellery-making units compete with modern factories which use state-of-the-art machinery and computerized operations. The Indian gems and jewellery units have set up a worldwide network of offices in every hotspot on the diamond industry map. The phenomenal growth in gems and jewellery exports is a record among the large Indian export sectors. In fact, the gems and jewellery industry presents itself as a perfect case study for discussing how to build competitiveness of Indian industries. This sector has grown to become one of the leading export oriented industries in the country and contributes around 15–20 per cent of total merchandise exports (and 20–30% of manufactured exports). This sector recorded an export turnover of US$ 14 billion during calendar year 2004. Now even the Government of India perceives the gems & Jewellery sector as not only a potential and a large foreign exchange earner but also a thrust area for employment generation. The most important contributors in the industry have been Cut and Polished Diamonds; Coloured gemstones; and Gold Jewellery accounting for almost 95–97 percent of Gems and Jewellery exports of India. According to GJEPC, India accounts for 80–85 per cent of the world's CPD market in volume terms, 55–60 per cent in value terms and about 90 per cent in unit terms. This figure clearly indicates that India is likely to become a leading exporter of jewellery and gems both in manufacturing and trading. The industry has shown a very impressive growth and is moving in the right direction. India has been able to achieve a dominant position in diamonds and is emerging as the fastest growing jewellery sector in the world. The adequate support extended by the government in terms of pragmatic policies has helped significantly in helping India to be a global hub for gems and Jewellery both in manufacturing and trading. However, lot more has to happen for potential of this sector to be fully achieved.

Indian processed vegetables in International markets accelerate the growth of Indian economy. Studying the changes in share of processed vegetables to different countries, improve the welfare of farmers, processers and exporters. In this regard, an attempt was made to quantify the changing structure of Indian processed vegetables exports. The main objective of the present study was to analysis the growth and the direction of trade in processed vegetables export. In this regard, secondary data, mainly quantity of processed vegetables exports from India was collected from APEDA, for a period of 1995-96 to 2017-18. Growth rates was estimated by using the exponential growth model and the Markov chain analysis model was computed through linear programming method to assess the transition probabilities for the major Indian processed vegetables export markets using Lingo Programming computer package. Accordingly, processed vegetables export market have positive double digit growth rate, UK retained 22.5 per cent, countries pooled under ‘others category’ retained 32.4 percent of share of Indian processed vegetables export. That the countries pooled under ‘others category’ and UK would be the more stable importers of the processed vegetables from India in future and country like Germany and Netherland was not found as the stable importer.

The countries involved in the ASEAN–India Free Trade Agreement (AIFTA) are major producers/exporters of tropical commodities including natural rubber (NR). India is the sixth largest producer and second largest consumer of NR in the world. The country is also a major importer of NR and exporter of rubber products. The import of NR worth US$ 785.44 million and export earnings of rubber products worth US $244.17 million from ASEAN region during the year 2017–18 indicated the importance of AIFTA in the rubber sector of India. Therefore, an in-depth analysis on the pattern and specialisation of rubber and rubber products exported from India is done using trade indicators such as revealed comparative advantage, regional orientation, intra-industry trade and Galtonian regression. The results indicate no considerable change after the establishment of AIFTA in the pattern and specialisation in exports of rubber and rubber products from India to ASEAN.

Software industry occupies an important place in Indian economy. This sector has a significant role in term of contribution to GDP, employment, export earning etc. The present paper examined the performance of software service exports from India. The software service exports comprises of computer services and information technology enabled serices (ITES). The recent trends in the software export shows that the export earning has increased. The growth rate of export of this sector is 13 per cent during 2008-2019 period. ITES service exports shows a higher growth rate than the computer service exports during 2008-19 period. Though the public limited company was the major contributor of exports, in the last two years the private sector occupies the position. Major destination of software exports are USA and Canada. Majority of the software service exports are through the cross border supply, ie through Mode-1.

Medicinal plants have been an essential share of Indian health and living systems. The present paper deals with the trend and growth of exports of medicinal plants and aloe vera from India. The study has the following objectives To study the quantity of export of medicinal plants and Aloe vera from India in 2004-05 to 2017-18. To find out the quantum of export of medicinal plants to various countries from India over the period from 2009-10 to 2017-18. To analyse export of Aloe vera to various countries from India and To find out trend and growth of exports of medicinal plants and aloe vera from India

India’s export potential to other SAARC nations (Bangladesh, Bhutan, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) was calculated with the help of gravity model of exports using panel data methodology (pooled model, fixed effect model and random effect model) by taking the time period 1981-2005. To find out the convergence and divergence of India’s exports to SAARC members, speed of convergence was used. Moreover, study has also tried to find whether there is convergence of the actual data towards the estimated equilibrium. The study reveals that there was presence of convergence in India exports with SAARC countries and in the other words, actual India’s exports to SAARC countries converged towards the estimated export potential. Among SAARC countries, India’s export potential exists for Maldives, Bhutan, Pakistan and Nepal. India is the only SAARC member that shares land border with four members and sea border with two. No other SAARC country shares a common border with each other. In terms of trade, commerce, investments etc., India is a source of potential investment and technology and a major market for products from all other SAARC members. Therefore, it is essentially in India’s interest to put her weight behind SAARC.  Â

Thesis (M.A. in National Security Affairs)--Naval Postgraduate School, June 2007.
Thesis Advisor(s): Peter Lavoy, Anne Clunan. "June 2007." Includes bibliographical references (p. 51- 58). Also available in print.

The purpose of this research is to examine the determinants of the textile and apparel exports of India and South Korea over 1974-2001. This was addressed through an econometric analysis of the effects of several independent variables on the gross and net exports of textiles and apparel for India and South Korea. The analysis employed four linear models, which were each estimated separately for textiles and apparel for India and South Korea. The independent variables were net value of physical-capital stock, technological capital, two different levels of human capital, unit labor cost in textiles and in apparel, per-capita domestic apparel production, and domestic cotton production. The study extends that by Zhang and Dardis (1991) who analyzed the determinants of textile exports over the period 1970-1985, using a sample of 27 major textile exporting countries.

Secondary data for each year over 1974-2001 were used for the variables in the analysis. The data analysis included 32 estimations using the four different linear models to test the hypothesized relationships between textile and apparel exports and the independent variables for India and South Korea separately. Model 1 examined the impact of current year values of the independent variables on current-year gross or net exports of textiles or apparel. Model 2 examined the impact of one-year lagged values of the independent variables on current-year gross or net exports of textiles or apparel. Model 3 examined the impact of changes in the current-year values of the independent variables on changes in current-year gross or net exports of textiles or apparel. Model 4 examined the impact of one-year lagged values of changes in the independent variables on changes in current-year gross or net exports of textiles or apparel.

Major findings indicate that current-year net value of physical-capital stock positively impacted the gross textile exports of India and both gross and net textile exports of South Korea over 1974-2001.Although the results indicate positive effects of current-year net value of physical-capital stock on India's gross and net apparel exports, they indicate negative effects on South Korea's gross and net apparel exports. One-year lagged net values of physical-capital stock were positively related to South Korea's current-year gross and net apparel exports. A negative impact of previous-year net value of physical-capital stock was found in one instance, South Korea's current-year gross apparel exports. Technological capital measured as the number of scientists, engineers, technical personnel involved in R&D, negatively affected South Korea's gross and net apparel exports. The impact of one-year lagged technological capital was negative on both India's and South Korea's current-year gross and net apparel exports.

Human capital measured by enrollment in secondary-level education showed positive impact on India's current-year gross and net exports of textile and apparel and on South Korea's current-year gross and net apparel exports. The results also showed a negative impact of current-year changes in secondary-education enrollment on current-year changes in net textile exports of India. Human capital measures by enrollment in tertiary-level education indicated a positive impact on South Korea's net textile exports and gross apparel exports. One-year lagged tertiary-education enrollment also positively affected South Korea's gross textile exports and its gross and net apparel exports. Contrary to expectations, current-year change sin tertiary-education enrollment showed a negative impact on current-year changes in India's net textile exports.

Per-capita domestic apparel production showed a positive impact on India's gross and net textile exports and on South Korea's gross apparel exports. One-year lagged domestic apparel production also had a positive impact on India's current-year net textile exports and South Korea's gross apparel exports. The results of one-year lagged domestic cotton production had a positive impact on South Korea's current-year gross and net textile and apparel exports.

Master of Science

With an annual growth of almost 20% since the year 2000, Indian merchandise exports exceeded 300 billion U.S. dollars in 2012. The country is becoming a major supplier to the world. However, companies sourcing products and operating in India are experiencing a variety of supply chain disruptions that impede their operations and finances. The purpose of this dissertation is to investigate the frequency, impact and severity of supply chain risks experienced by companies in India, as well as assess the usefulness of mitigation methods and enquire about future expected disruptions. It is hoped that the results will prepare managers to better prioritize their supply chain risk management efforts and investments. The scope of this study is upstream (sourcing and operations) disruptions that affected Indian supply chains over the past three years, including the areas of logistics and transportation. The methodology is a quantitative, empirical study, using a survey instrument in the form of a questionnaire distributed electronically to thousands of members of four prominent trade associations in India. The platform for the questionnaire is a modification of a traditional risk analysis progression: mapping, identifying, assessing, mitigating and improving, also dubbed "MIAMI". The main findings are that there are major and significant differences in severity (frequency and impact) between the thirteen risk categories presented. There are also significant group differences among the respondents. Traditional mitigation methods differ with respect to usefulness, and expected risks are somewhat different than past risks. Conclusions reached are that chronic risks such as inadequate transportation, logistics and utilities infrastructure, supplier and labor problems, and bureaucracy/red tape are more severe than highly publicized and visible risks such as natural disasters, terrorism and crime. Traditional mitigation methods are useful for many of the disruptions, but ineffective for non-physical risks. There is a certain optimism with respect to future infrastructure related disruptions. Limitations of the study include a relatively low response rate, the classic difficulty in risk analysis of comparing and scaling the impact of disruptions, and that it is not fine grained enough to fully describe any specific industry sectors. This study contributes to the field of supply chain risk management by adding crucial empirical information from a heretofore unexplored market.

Diese Dissertation ist eine Sammlung von Artikeln, die sich auf Kinderarbeit beziehen. In mehreren Ländern wurde eine Analyse durchgeführt, welche die Leistungsfähigkeit von arbeitsintensiven Exportgeschäften beurteilte. Das Ergebnis enthüllte, dass Kinderarbeit arbeitsintensive Exporttätigkeiten negativ beeinflusste gemessen am Bruttosozialprodukt. Die Faktoren zur Kinderarbeit wurden genauer untersucht, indem Datenmaterial von nationalen Stichprobenerhebungen Indiens benützt wurden. Man fand heraus, dass familiäre Eigenschaften, insbesondere der Bildungsgrad, ein bedeutsames Verhältnis zu den täglichen Tätigkeiten eines Kindes aufweist. Mit der gleichen Datengrundlage wurden die finanziellen Auswirkungen von Ausbildung im „informellen und formellen“ Arbeitsmarkt für die Städte und die ländlichen Regionen Indiens untersucht. Die Ergebnisse zeigten, dass die finanziellen Auswirkungen im „informellen Arbeitsmarkt“ sowie in ländlichen Regionen und im primären Wirtschaftssektor geringer ausfielen. Eine Kostennutzenanalyse wurde durchgeführt, um den tatsächlichen Nutzen von Ausbildungskosten für alle Kinder ohne jegliche Schulausbildung zu untersuchen. Die Ergebnisse zeigten, dass die Durchführung solcher Projekte für die indische Regierung sogar von großem Nutzen wäre.
This Dissertation is a collection of articles all related to child labour. A multi country analysis estimating performance of labour intensive exports was performed and the results revealed that child labour negatively influenced the labour intensive exports share to GDP. Using National Sample Survey data from India, determinants of child labour were studied. It was found that family characteristics, especially literacy levels had a significant relationship with the daily activity status of the child. With the same data set, returns to education in the informal and formal labour markets were studied for rural and urban India. Results showed that returns were lower in the informal market, rural regions and in the primary sector. A Cost Benefit Analysis was performed to examine the net benefits of educating all out of school children and the results showed that such a project would be within the reach of Indian Government.

In the diploma thesis, author focuses on the state of the Indian economy and the position of India in the foreign trade of the Czech Republic. Firstly, local specifics and current changes (after 2014 elections) are outlined. Afterwards, an analysis of the India's position in international relations, its foreign trade relations and the intensity of mutual trade with the Czech Republic is propounded. The third chapter deals with the Czech system of trade promotion, including a description of its institutional structure and relation to the Czech export destined to India. In the last part of the thesis, author provides readers with a case study of selected Czech companies operating in the Indian market. The aim is to evaluate the possibilities and limits of bilateral trade and investment exchange promotion.

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O presente trabalho estima os Ãndices de similaridade e de variedade para avaliar a competiÃÃo dos produtos indianos sobre os produtos brasileiros nos EUA no perÃodo de 2001 a 2009. Os principais resultados mostraram que a semelhanÃa entre as pautas de exportaÃÃo brasileiras e indianas à relativamente baixa e nÃo segue uma tendÃncia, alÃm da variedade dos produtos indianos no mercado norte-americano ser bastante superior à dos produtos brasileiros.
This work estimates the similarity and variety indexes to evaluate the competition of Indian products on Brazilian products in the U.S. from 2001 to 2009. The main results were that the similarity between the goods of Indian and Brazilian exports is relatively low and do not follow a trend and that the variety of Indian products in the U.S. market is well above the Brazilian products.

Purpose – the purpose of this paper is to investigate whether supply line engineering strategies of goods and service exports, exports transport services and export time have a significant impact on GDP growth of BIMSTEC countries or not. Research methodology – the study employed a panel vector error correction model (VECM) instead of loose VAR to examine the short and long-run relationship among the selected indicators and GDP growth. Findings – in the long-run, the time of export negatively and suggestively associate with GDP. Conversely, VECM based Granger causality test signposted that in short-run only unidirectional causality running from goods and service exports (GSE), trade duration like exports time (ET) toward GDP and for the rest of the variables no causality found. Research limitations – this study is contextualized only on Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand. Practical implications – to investigate the current position of the link between supply line logistics strategies and economic growth by using annual data for the period of 1980 to 2014 and possible weaknesses and logistics presence. Originality/Value – this paper is an attempt, first of its kind, to fill up this shortfall, to estimate the relationship of exports transport services, exports time, and goods and services exports with GDP growth of BIMSTEC countries.

Cloth has always been the most worldwide of all imported and exported commodities. It is an enlightening example of the movement of knowledge, skills, goods and investment across wide geographic seats. South Asia has been dominant for making of these worldwide interactions over period. This capacity grants advanced research that discovers the dynamic ways in which various textile production and trade regions generated the ‘first globalization’. A series of specialists connect this worldwide commodity with the dramatic political and economic alterations that characterised the India in the recent centuries. Together, the papers transform our understanding of the contribution of South Asian cloth, specifically Indian cloth to make the modern world economy. India is the largest share of its exports being textiles and apparels to the world. Also weaving is second only to agriculture sector in terms of providing employment in India. This paper a simple spreadsheet program method of calculations for the complete kinematics and dynamic analysis of the shedding mechanism of the classical powerloom is presented. Shedding is one of the important processes used in weaving technology of textile machineries. Most of the powerlooms of India uses staubli’s M5 module for shedding. These modules are activated through the traditional slider-crank mechanism. The source energy for these modules is through electric motor coupled with clutch and resulting output is shedding action of warp threads of cloth. Objective of this work is to address the kinematics and Dynamics simulation of linkage assembly of shedding mechanism of textile machinery considering all the links of the model as rigid one. Also this paper examines the effect of dynamic forces on various joints of conventional kinematic model. Subsequently the optimisation of mechanism is carried out by varying the design factor ratio of the slider crank mechanism. Length of connecting rod to radius of the crank shaft has been taken into account for defining design factor ratio for the analysis. Altered varieties of models having various design factors are modeled using 3D modeling package Solidworks. Simulation test results and force analysis of these models were carried out using ADAMS. Being a single degree of freedom mechanism as defined by its crank angle, the spreadsheet program can be used to answer what - if? situation queries through tables and graphical plots to evaluate variations of key motion and loading parameters with changes in the design factor. Thus, it allows for the conduct of parameter studies in selecting optimum crank-and-connecting-rod linkage dimensions and speeds. Thus, this work provides an alternative solution and scope for further research in shedding mechanism’s simulation analysis.

Hydrocarbons are the major source of energy in the world. While the global energy demand continues to rise, the shallow water hydrocarbon reserves currently under production are getting exhausted. This has encouraged all major E&P (Exploration & Production) companies around the world to look towards exploration and development of newer deepwater offshore reserves, hitherto largely left untouched. Furthermore, gas reserves-rich nations are also showing a keen interest in exploring new gas markets to boost their exports and, in the process, provide a solution to the energy scarcity of other parts of the world. The two factors mentioned above — the need for newer energy reserves and the urge to tap new energy markets — coupled with the safety, reliability, and cost-effectiveness of pipelines have contributed to the growing number of deepwater gas pipeline projects being executed around the world. “Deepwater Pipelines” per se is not a new concept. Many deepwater pipelines have already been installed in different parts of the world. However, for the Indian energy sector, this is a relatively new development, with the exception of KG basin deepwater pipelines. The Indian government’s HELP (Hydrocarbon Exploration and Leasing Policy) and proposed trans-national submarine gas pipelines are likely to serve as the harbingers of future deepwater pipeline projects in Indian oil & gas sector. Although the technical and codal requirements for deepwater pipelines are the same as that applicable for any shallow water offshore pipeline, there are a few nuances that must be considered extremely important to successfully implement any deepwater pipeline project. This paper elucidates the deepwater pipeline considerations such as pipeline route selection, flow assurance, line pipe material & wall thickness selection, pipeline installation analysis, seabed intervention techniques, alternative integrity validation (AIV) etc.

Aim/Purpose: Since the late 1980s the Indian monopoly on the export of Cardamom has suffered a sharp and devastating setback from which India cannot recover. The research is looking into the reasons and suggests remedies. Background: The main problems are the competition from Guatemala, higher production costs, an increasing domestic demand, the lack of action from the Spices Board of India Methodology : The methodology used was not the conventional one, with an aim to obtain truthful and unbiased responses from all those involved using a mixture of all available methods. Contribution: The paper focuses on the provocations, limitations and seriousness of the situation and highlights the facts and figures to make the plantation sector to regain its prosperity. Findings: Lack of awareness among the farmers about the latest farming and post harvesting technologies and marketing strategies. Recommendations for Practitioners: This paper suggests measures to be taken by the cardamom farmers and the market intermediaries, and analyses the future role of the Spices Board of India Recommendation for Researchers: Further detailed studies are needed to ascertain current market share of the main competitors, to reduce the cost of production Impact on Society: If the findings in this paper are followed, the Indian Cardamom industry could retain its previous position in the market Future Research: Studies can be done export market, the use technology and export.

The analysed research problem answer the question of how the changing trade conditions affect Lithuanian agricultural and food exports. The paper aims to assess the level of specialization in the agricultural and food sector exports of Lithuania. Assessment of the level of specialization was based on calculation of the trade coverage, revealed comparative advantage and intra-industry trade indi-ces and their aggregation. Empirical research covers the period of 1999–2014. The export of agricul-tural and food products of Lithuania has been positively affected by trade liberalisation and achieved the effect of synergy due to regional integration processes (membership in the EU). It is characterised by high level of specialisation; nevertheless, this does not contribute to increasing of added value in agriculture.

Transportation of crude oil and liquid petroleum products through cross country pipeline for inland movement & through jetty/SPM for export/import has been a very common phenomenon across the world. M/s Cairn India Ltd. (“CIL”) are the operator of block RJ-ON-90/1 in India and operate the block on behalf of itself and its Joint Venture (JV) partner - Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC). The Block contains a number of major oil discoveries including the Mangala field in the state of Rajasthan, India. M/s Cairn India Ltd. (“CIL”) have approval from Government of India (GOI) for a pipeline to transport crude oil from the Block at Rajasthan to coastal terminal facility in Gujarat and recently commissioned the facility for exporting Mangala crude oil through marine tankers from our Bhogat Terminal safely. The facilities & export operations for crude oil at our Bhogat Terminal is very unique and , specific in nature — especially due to properties of crude oil & mainly considering following aspects. (I) Handling Mangala crude oil containing significant quantities of wax & it is expected to congeal at temperatures below 50°C. (II) Crude oil is always required to be kept heated for maintaining temperature > 60°C – Handling crude with specific properties and scenario w.r.t. normal liquid petroleum products. (III) Displacement of crude oil with Light Flushing Oil (LFO-HSD being used as LFO) from twin marine headers and subsea/floating hose strings after every tanker loading operation & recovery of light flushing oil back to shore tank prior to every export tanker loading. – Safely managing a very distinguished & highly critical/risky nature of operations to prevent congealing of crude oil inside subsea/floating hose systems which cannot be provided with heating system.

This paper outlines the design and construction of the Ladakh Dental Clinic project as a case study for hybrid local imported material building practices. Referencing local vernacular types as well as comparable rapid assembly systems deployed in India and beyond for other development projects, the paper discusses opportunities and shortcomings of such building strategies. In admirably positivistic modernist spirit, modular construction is often praised as the harbinger or exporter of progress and, at times, architectural advancement. Regularly choking on its own ambitions, successful modular construction largely remains an architectural fantasy as it often struggles to overcome its totalitarian spatial tendencies and inherent inflexibility. Compared to local techniques and perhaps contradictory to its intent, modular construction has a tendency to operate top-down instead of bottom-up. The Ladakh Dental Clinic project can be characterized as a result of its contradictory constraints and multi-client requirements. Necessitating both local construction and imported modular systems due to financial limitations, sponsorship opportunities, future expandability, and a tight schedule, the clinic emerges as a strange hybrid oscillating between local (de-facto imported) Indian cast-in-place concrete construction and (imported) German prefabrication.

Enhancing participation in global value chain (GVCs) can facilitate development outcomes that India strives to achieve, including generating productive employment opportunities, increasing labor productivity, and gaining a larger share of global exports. This paper draws from the Asian Development Bank’s Multiregional Input–Output Database and highlights the role of various drivers of GVCs participation across primary, manufacturing, and services sectors. It also evaluates the drivers and economic consequences of participating in different segments of GVCs, which can apply to India’s potential development outcomes. Results of the study indicate increasing GVC participation can positively impact the economy and contribute to raising per capita income, labor productivity, investment, and exports.

1.1 Resumen macroeconómico En el segundo trimestre la economía enfrentó varios choques, principalmente de oferta y de costos, la mayoría de los cuales no fueron anticipados, o los previstos fueron más persistentes de lo esperado, y que en conjunto interrumpieron la recuperación de la actividad económica observada a comienzos de año y llevaron la inflación total a niveles superiores a la meta. La inflación básica (sin alimentos ni regulados: SAR) aumentó, pero se mantuvo baja y acorde con lo esperado por el equipo técnico. A comienzos de abril se inició una tercera ola de pandemia, más acentuada y prolongada que la anterior, con un elevado costo en vidas humanas y algún impacto negativo en la recuperación económica. Entre mayo y mediados de junio los bloqueos de las carreteras y los problemas de orden público tuvieron un fuerte efecto negativo sobre la actividad económica y la inflación. Se estima que la magnitud de estos dos choques combinados habría generado una caída en niveles en el producto interno bruto (PIB) con respecto al primer trimestre del año. Adicionalmente, los bloqueos causaron un aumento significativo de los precios de los alimentos. A estos choques se sumaron los efectos acumulados de la disrupción global en algunas cadenas de valor y el incremento en los fletes internacionales que desde finales de 2020 vienen generando restricciones de oferta y aumentos de costos. Todos estos factores, que afectaron principalmente el índice de precios al consumidor (IPC) de bienes y de alimentos, explicaron la mayor parte del error de pronóstico del equipo técnico y el aumento de la inflación total a niveles superiores a la meta del 3 %. El incremento en la inflación básica y de los precios de los regulados fue acorde con lo esperado por el equipo técnico, y se explica principalmente por la eliminación de varios alivios de precios otorgados un año atrás. A todo esto se suma la mayor percepción de riesgo soberano y las presiones al alza que esto implica sobre el costo de financiamiento externo y la tasa de cambio. A pesar de los fuertes choques negativos, el crecimiento económico esperado para la primera mitad del año (9,1%), es significativamente mayor que lo proyectado en el informe de abril (7,1%), signo de una economía más dinámica que se recuperaría más rápido de lo previsto. Desde finales de 2020 las diferentes cifras de actividad económica han mostrado un crecimiento mayor que el esperado. Esto sugiere que los efectos negativos sobre el producto de las recurrentes olas de contagio estarían siendo cada vez menos fuertes y duraderos. No obstante, la tercera ola de contagio del Covid-19, y en mayor medida los bloqueos a las vías y los problemas de orden público, habrían generado una caída del PIB durante el segundo trimestre, frente al primero. Pese a lo anterior, los datos del índice de seguimiento a la economía (ISE) de abril y mayo han resultado mayores que lo esperado, y las nuevas cifras de actividad económica sectoriales sugieren que el impacto negativo de la pandemia sobre el producto se sigue moderando, en un entorno de menores restricciones a la movilidad y de mayor avance en el ritmo de vacunación. Los registros de transporte de carga (junio) y la demanda de energía no regulada (julio), entre otros, indican una recuperación importante después de los bloqueos en mayo. Con todo lo anterior, el incremento anual del PIB del segundo trimestre se habría situado alrededor del 17,3 % (antes 15,8 %), explicado en gran parte por una base baja de comparación. Para todo 2021 el equipo técnico incrementó su proyección de crecimiento desde un 6 % hasta el 7,5 %. Este pronóstico, que está rodeado de una incertidumbre inusualmente elevada, supone que no se presentarán problemas de orden público y que posibles nuevas olas de contagio del Covid-19 no tendrán efectos negativos adicionales sobre la actividad económica. Frente al pronóstico del informe pasado, la recuperación de la demanda externa, los niveles de precios de algunos bienes básicos que exporta el país y la dinámica de las remesas de trabajadores han sido mejores que las esperadas y seguirían impulsando la recuperación del ingreso nacional en lo que resta del año. A esto se sumaría la aún amplia liquidez internacional, la aceleración en el proceso de vacunación y las bajas tasas de interés, factores que continuarían favoreciendo la actividad económica. La mejor dinámica del primer semestre, que llevó a una revisión al alza en el crecimiento de todos los componentes del gasto, continuaría hacia adelante y, antes de lo esperado en abril, la economía recuperaría los niveles de producción de 2019 a finales de 2021. El pronóstico continúa incluyendo efectos de corto plazo sobre la demanda agregada de una reforma tributaria de magnitud similar a la proyectada por el Gobierno. Con todo eso, en el escenario central de este informe, el pronóstico de crecimiento para 2021 es del 7,5 % y para 2022 del 3,1 %. A pesar de esto, el nivel de la actividad económica seguiría siendo inferior a su potencial. La mejora en estas proyecciones, sin embargo, está rodeada de una alta incertidumbre. En junio la inflación anual (3,63 %) aumentó más de lo esperado debido al comportamiento del grupo de alimentos, mientras que la inflación básica (1,87 %) fue similar a la proyectada. En lo que resta del año el mayor nivel del IPC de alimentos persistiría y contribuiría a mantener la inflación por encima de la meta. A finales de 2022 la inflación total y básica retornarían a tasas cercanas al 3 %, en un entorno de desaceleración del IPC de alimentos y de menores excesos de capacidad productiva. En los meses recientes el aumento en los precios internacionales de los fletes y de los bienes agrícolas, y las mayores exportaciones de carne y el ciclo ganadero han ejercido presiones al alza sobre el precio de los alimentos, principalmente de los procesados. A estas fuerzas persistentes se sumaron los bloqueos de las vías nacionales y los problemas de orden público en varias ciudades registrados en mayo y parte de junio, los cuales se reflejaron en una fuerte restricción en la oferta y en un aumento anual no esperado del IPC de alimentos (8,52 %). El grupo de regulados (5,93 %) también se aceleró, debido a la baja base de comparación en los precios de la gasolina y a la disolución de parte de los alivios a las tarifas de servicios públicos otorgados en 2020. Como se proyectaba, la inflación SAR repuntó al 1,87 %, debido a la reactivación de los impuestos indirectos de algunos bienes y servicios eliminados un año atrás, y por las presiones al alza que ejercieron los alimentos sobre las comidas fuera del hogar (CFH), entre otros. En lo que resta del año se espera que el aumento en los alimentos perecederos se revierta, siempre y cuando no se registren nuevos bloqueos duraderos a las vías nacionales. El mayor nivel de precios de los alimentos procesados persistiría y contribuiría a mantener la inflación por encima de la meta a finales de año. La inflación SAR continuaría con una tendencia creciente, en la medida en que los excesos de capacidad productiva se sigan cerrando y registraría un aumento transitorio en marzo de 2022, debido principalmente al restablecimiento del impuesto al consumo en las CFH. Con todo esto, para finales de 2021 y 2022 se estima una inflación total del 4,1 % y 3,1 %, y una inflación básica del 2,6 % y 3,2 %, respectivamente. El comportamiento conjunto de los precios del IPC SAR, junto con continuas sorpresas al alza en la actividad económica, son interpretados por el equipo técnico como señales de amplios excesos de capacidad productiva de la economía. Estos persistirían en los siguientes dos años, al final de los cuales la brecha del producto se cerraría. El mayor crecimiento económico sugiere una brecha del producto menos negativa que la estimada hace un trimestre. Sin embargo, el comportamiento de la inflación básica, especialmente en servicios, indica que el PIB potencial se ha recuperado de forma sorpresiva y que los excesos de capacidad siguen siendo amplios, con una demanda agregada afectada de forma persistente. Esta interpretación encuentra soporte en el mercado laboral, en donde persiste un desempleo alto y la recuperación de los empleos perdidos se estancó. Adicionalmente, los aumentos en la inflación en buena medida están explicados por choques de oferta y de costos y por la disolución de algunos alivios de precios otorgados un año atrás. Los pronósticos de crecimiento y de inflación descritos son coherentes con una brecha del producto que se cierra más rápido y es menos negativa en todo el horizonte de pronóstico con respecto al informe de abril. No obstante, la incertidumbre sobre los excesos de capacidad es muy alta y es un riesgo sobre el pronóstico. Las perspectivas de las cuentas fiscales de Colombia se deterioraron, Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings (S&P) y Fitch Ratings (Fitch) redujeron su calificación crediticia, los bloqueos y problemas de orden público afectaron el producto y el país enfrentó una nueva ola de contagios de Covid-19 más acentuada y prolongada que las pasadas. Todo lo anterior se ha reflejado en un aumento de las primas de riesgo y en una depreciación del peso frente al dólar. Esto ha ocurrido en un entorno favorable de ingresos externos. Los precios internacionales del petróleo, del café y de otros bienes básicos que exporta el país aumentaron y han contribuido a la recuperación de los términos de intercambio y del ingreso nacional, y han mitigado las presiones al alza sobre las primas de riesgo y la tasa de cambio. En el presente informe se incrementó el precio esperado del petróleo para 2021 a USD 68 por barril (antes USD 61 bl) y para 2022 a USD 66 bl (antes USD 60 bl). Esta mayor senda presenta una convergencia hacia precios menores que los observados recientemente, como resultado de una mayor oferta mundial esperada de petróleo, la cual más que compensaría el incremento en la demanda de este bien básico. Por ende, se supone que el aumento reciente de los precios tiene un carácter transitorio. En el escenario macroeconómico actual se espera que las condiciones financieras internacionales sean algo menos favorables, a pesar de la mejora en los ingresos externos por cuenta de una mayor demanda y unos precios del petróleo y de otros productos de exportación más altos. Frente al informe de abril el crecimiento de la demanda externa fue mejor que el esperado, y las proyecciones para 2021 y 2022 aumentaron del 5,2 % al 6,0 % y del 3,4 % al 3,5 %, respectivamente. En lo corrido del año las cifras de actividad económica muestran una demanda externa más dinámica de la esperada. En los Estados Unidos y China la recuperación del producto ha sido más rápida que la registrada en los países de la región. En estos últimos la reactivación económica ha estado limitada por los rebrotes del Covid-19, las limitaciones en la oferta de vacunas y el poco espacio fiscal para enfrentar la pandemia, entre otros factores. La buena dinámica en el comercio externo de bienes se ha dado en un entorno de deterioro en las cadenas de valor y de un aumento importante en los precios de las materias primas y en el costo de los fletes. En los Estados Unidos la inflación sorprendió al alza y su valor observado y esperado se mantiene por encima de la meta, al tiempo que se incrementó la proyección de crecimiento económico. Con esto, el inicio de la normalización de la política monetaria en ese país se daría antes de lo proyectado. En este informe se estima que el primer incremento en la tasa de interés de la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos se dé a finales de 2022 (antes del primer trimestre de 2023). Para Colombia se supone una mayor prima de riesgo frente al informe de abril y se sigue esperando que presente una tendencia creciente, dada la acumulación de deuda pública y externa del país. Todo esto contribuiría a un incremento en el costo del financiamiento externo en el horizonte de pronóstico. La postura expansiva de la política monetaria sigue soportando unas condiciones financieras internas favorables. En el segundo trimestre la tasa de interés interbancaria y el índice bancario de referencia (IBR) se han mantenido acordes con la tasa de interés de política. Las tasas de interés promedio de captación y crédito continuaron históricamente bajas, a pesar de algunos incrementos observados a finales de junio. La cartera en moneda nacional detuvo su desaceleración anual y, entre marzo y junio, el crédito a los hogares se aceleró, principalmente para compra de vivienda. La recuperación de la cartera comercial y de los desembolsos a ese sector fue importante, y se alcanzó de nuevo el elevado saldo observado un año atrás, cuando las empresas requirieron niveles significativos de liquidez para enfrentar los efectos económicos de la pandemia. El riesgo de crédito aumentó, las provisiones se mantienes altas y algunos bancos han retirado de su balance una parte de su cartera vencida. No obstante, las utilidades del sistema financiero se han recuperado y sus niveles de liquidez y solvencia se mantienen por encima del mínimo regulatorio. A partir de este informe se implementará una nueva metodología para cuantificar y comunicar la incertidumbre que rodea los pronósticos del escenario macroeconómico central, en un entorno de política monetaria activa. Esta metodología se conoce como densidades predictivas (DP) y se explica en detalle en el Recuadro 1. Partiendo del balance de riesgos que contiene los principales factores que, de acuerdo con el juicio del equipo técnico, podrían afectar a la economía en el horizonte de pronóstico, la metodología DP produce distribuciones de probabilidad sobre el pronóstico de las principales variables (v. g.: crecimiento, inflación). Estas distribuciones reflejan el resultado de los posibles choques (a variables externas, precios y actividad económica) que podría recibir la economía y su transmisión, considerando la estructura económica y la respuesta de política monetaria en el futuro. En este sentido, permiten cuantificar la incertidumbre alrededor del pronóstico y su sesgo. El ejercicio DP muestra un sesgo a la baja en el crecimiento económico y en la brecha del producto, y al alza en la inflación. El balance de riesgos indica que las disyuntivas para la política monetaria serán potencialmente más complejas que lo contemplado en el pasado. Por el lado de las condiciones de financiamiento externo, se considera que el mayor riesgo es que se tornen un poco menos favorables, en un escenario en el cual la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos incremente con mayor prontitud su tasa de interés. Esto último, ante un crecimiento económico y del empleo mayor que el esperado en los Estados Unidos que genere presiones significativas sobre la inflación de ese país. A esto se suma la incertidumbre sobre el panorama fiscal en Colombia y sus efectos sobre la prima de riesgo y el costo del financiamiento externo. En el caso del crecimiento, la mayoría de los riesgos son a la baja, destacándose los efectos de la incertidumbre política y fiscal sobre las decisiones de consumo e inversión, la aparición de nuevas olas de contagio de la pandemia del Covid-19 y sus impactos sobre la actividad económica. En el caso de la inflación, se incorporó el riesgo de una mayor persistencia de los choques asociados con la disrupción de las cadenas de valor, mayores precios internacionales de las materias primas y de los alimentos, y una recuperación más lenta que la esperada de la cadena agrícola nacional afectada por los pasados bloqueos a las vías. Estos riesgos presionarían al alza principalmente los precios de los alimentos y de los bienes. Como principal riesgo a la baja se incluyó un alza de los arriendos menor que el esperado en el escenario central, explicada por una demanda débil y por una mayor oferta en 2022 dadas las altas ventas de vivienda observadas en el presente año. Con todo, el crecimiento económico presenta un sesgo a la baja y, con el 90 % de confianza, se encontraría entre un 6,1 % y 9,1 % para 2021 y entre el 0,5 % y 4,1 % para 2022. La brecha del producto tendría un sesgo a la baja, principalmente en 2022. El sesgo de la inflación es al alza, y se encontraría entre el 3,7 % y 4,9 % en 2021, y el 2,2 % y 4,7 % en 2022, con un 90 % de probabilidad. 1.2 Decisión de política monetaria En las reuniones de junio y julio la JDBR decidió mantener la tasa de política monetaria inalterada en 1,75 %.