Academic literature on the topic 'External (macroeconomic) factors'

This study aims to assess the impact of bank-specific factors and macroeconomic indicators on the net interest margin (NIM) of commercial banks in Indonesia. Data from Indonesian commercial banks are used. Data are collected from the banks’ annual reports and the Financial Services Authority (OJK) for the period 2008 to 2018. A panel data regression model is used to estimate the effect of bank-specific and macroeconomic factors. The results prove that the variables of Non-Performing Loans (NPL), Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR), Return on Assets (ROA), Interest Rate (SBI), and Exchange Rate (FOREX) affect NIM. The exchange rate variable has a predominant effect, while the NPL factor has a less strong influence on NIM. The empirical evidence from this research is important for commercial banks in Indonesia to improve operational efficiency through NIM performance. Internal and external factors of a bank should be subject of attention of bank managers.

The objective of the paper is to recognize the role of internal and external factors in the trade balance. The analysis of the trade balance is useful to help formulate goals and premises of economy policy to properly allocate production means to eliminate the negative effects of trade liberalization. The authors have studied data about trade of agricultural commodities in the years 2000–2010. To measure the impact of macroeconomic variables used a regression model. The macroeconomic factors included: X1 (inflation), X2 (investment in agriculture and hunting), X3 (GDP) and X4 (exchange rate) and X5 (FAO food price index). We wanted to recognize the impact of macroeconomic factors on: Y1 (total export), Y2 (total import), Y3 (trade balance).

The crisis in the political and economic spheres in Ukraine has led to an aggravation of macroeconomic imbalances, which in turn worsen the socio-economic situation, complicate the moments of doing business, manifestation of violations and instability in the public administration sector and social tension in society. As the result is the accumulation of macroeconomic imbalances to a critical point that threatens the normal, gradual development of economic processes that should take place in the economic space of Ukraine. The article deals with the main imbalances indicators of the country's economy and their applicability under modern Ukrainian economic policy conditions. The interconnection of the main macro-instability factors in Ukraine economy and other countries of the world is considered, which allows to identity a number of endogenous (external) and exogenous (internal) factors that create imbalances. The mechanism of imbalances detection is proposed, which combines certain categories, methods, principles and methods of their research. The simulation model for identifying macroeconomic imbalances in the Ukrainian economy was developed, based on which the dynamic properties of the macroeconomic imbalances system were investigated, a short-term indicators forecast was constructed, and assessment of the imbalances probability in the future was implemented. Forecast macroeconomic indicators were estimated that fall into critical areas also the gross external debt, changes in the real effective exchange rate, changes in the share of the export market show that external imbalances and disproportion exist. Other macro indicators that form the imbalances table, according to projected calculations, show trends that are close to the ultimate limits and instability risks which confirms the vulnerability of the country's financial and economic system. The obtained forecasting results will allow to prevent new imbalances through the timely and appropriate rapid response management action.

Changes in labor productivity in enterprises occur due to various factors that are external macroeconomic factors, as well as due to changes in internal conditions that could lead to changes within the enterprise itself. The article analyzes macroeconomic factors and internal conditions of labor productivity growth in the functioning of economic entities.

Enterprises need finance for investment and acquire it either by internally generated finance or externally generated finance, which are closely related to the ownership structure, financial market development and enforcement of law of a country. In underdeveloped companies with foreign owners have an advantage in their access to external finance as compare to domestically owned companies because their financial resources coming from abroad. Access to external finance is a key determinant of a firm’s ability to develop, operate, and expand. Economic researchers have studied how various macroeconomic and microeconomic factors influence such access; for example, it has been shown that the need of external finance to depend on the macroeconomic environment, since economic downturns tend to limit firms’ ability to borrow and banks’ willingness to lend. This “credit channel” research argues that corporate access to credit is the principal mechanism linking monetary policy and the real economy. At the micro level, research has shown that characteristics specific to a firm influence the degree to which macroeconomic changes affect its access to external financing; specifically, firms that are more vulnerable financially—such as smaller, younger, riskier, and more indebted firms—are found to be more affected by tighter monetary policy.

Steady economy growth is possible only after allocating a clear objective and building macroeconomic development model. Acquiring of accurate prognoses of future development is the primary objective of applying macroeconomic models. Before VAR methods emerged prognosis were made based on timeline of economic indicators that were acquired through singular spectrum prognosis methods and extrapolation. Applying SSA methods implied that an indicator under research was formed under the influence of a multitude of factors that were impossible to separate. In this case, indicator changes were connected with the time flow rather than with the influencing factors, which led to the creation of singular time series. Authors prove that Ukrainian economy faced steady developing as well shocks. That is why using simple regressions for prognosis of macroeconomic indicators is not sufficient. VAR models not only enable the accurate forecasting of macroeconomic indicators but also are very useful when building models of stress-testing of the economy and banks in case of external and internal shocks. Preventing the negative effects can be effective using a model of macroeconomic risk management that enables managing exogenous macroeconomic factors in order to attain the well-defined objectives. In this paper, authors present the dynamics analysis of yearly changes of the gross domestic product, consumer price level, USD/UAH exchange rate, M2 money supply indicator, assets and liabilities of the Ukrainian banks dynamics, Ukrainian deposits, banks capital dynamics. Keywords: macroeconomic model, VAR model, macroeconomic risks, timeline, inflation rate, money supply, gross domestic product.

Motivation is considered one of the most important prerequisites for the success and effectiveness of the resulting performances. Usually, we meet only with a perspective of employee motivation from inside the company. However, the external environment, i.e. macro-environment, also influences the motivation of employees. We decided to focus on exploring how macroeconomic indicators evolution affects employee motivation. By means of the research conducted in Slovakia during the period from 2008 to 2019 on a sample of more than 30,000 respondents, we define the dependence of selected macroeconomic indicators and employee motivation. The research focuses on the analysis of average annual wage and household debt influence on the most important employees’ motivational factors. Based on our findings, we can state that macroeconomic indicators affect the importance of motivational factors in Slovakia. Especially, the average annual wage strongly influences the six motivational factors (communication at the workplace, duties and type of work, working hours, working environment, superior approach, psychological burden). The results of the research also show that the seven motivational factors (atmosphere at the workplace, good team, communication at the workplace, working hours, working environment, superior approach, psychological burden) strongly depend on the macroeconomic indicator of household debt. Therefore, when creating incentive programs, business managers in Slovakia should take into account not only the effects of the company’s microenvironment on motivation but also the effects of the macro-environment and thus macroeconomic changes in the state. The role of a manager is to keep balance between external environment influence on employee motivation and internal actions. The paper presents inspiring ideas in a field of employee motivation and the influence of external environment on motivation.

The article analyzes the monetary policy in the context of exogenous shocks of the external sector. The Bank of Russia and Rosstat use official statistics for 2000–2018. The parameters of the action of negative factors of the world economy apply the conditions of world trade and changes in the exchange rate of national currencies. The graphic form analyzes the susceptibility of macroeconomic indicators to changes in the external market and their dependence on fluctuations in energy prices. The influence of consumer prices and inflation on the monetary policy of the Central Bank is considered. The analysis allows us to conclude about the relationship of the effect of events from processes in the global market. It was concluded that, despite these risks, there are optimal ways of conducting monetary policy, which remain the targeting of inflation and the effect of the floating exchange rate regime of the national currency. For effective results in reducing the dependence of macroeconomic processes on the impact of external shocks, coordinated activities of all branches of economic power, and their effective macro-prudential and fiscal policies are important.

The dividends of listed companies are related to external factors such as the macroeconomic situation and the industry level of these companies. They may also be related to internal factors such as the company’s financial status, equity structure, and their development cycle. This article analyzes the non-dividend listed companies in terms of the external and internal factors; focusing on industries with more non-dividend listed companies.

A country’s credit worthiness decided by macroeconomic factors. This research aims to examine the impact of macroeconomic and external factor on yield spread of East Asia, Latin America, and Caribbean countries. Macroeconomic variables used in this research are classified as macroeconomic variables that influence liquidity and solvency, and macroeconomic variables that influence macroeconomic fundamental. This research is conducted by using quarterly yield spread data of 11 countries from 2000Q1 to 2015Q4 and analyzed panel data regression using Pooled Least Square (PLS), Fixed Effect Model (FEM) and Random Effect Model (REM). Study results show that macroeconomic variables that have impact on yield spread are external debt to GDP ratio, fiscal balance to GDP ratio, amortization to international reserve ratio, current account to GDP ratio, real effective exchange rate, and GDP per capita growth. External factors that have impact on yield spread are US Treasury Bond 10 year yield and Volatility Index. Abstrak Kelayakan utang (credit worthiness) sebuah negara ditentukan dari kondisi ekonomi makro negara tersebut dan faktor eksternal. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menguji pengaruh faktor ekonomi makro serta faktor eksternal terhadap yield spread negara-negara di Asia Timur, Amerika Latin dan Karibian. Variabel ekonomi makro yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini digolongkan dalam dua kelompok yakni yang memengaruhi likuiditas dan solvensi serta yang memengaruhi fundamental ekonomi makro. Penelitian dilakukan dengan menggunakan yield spread triwulanan dari 11 negara untuk periode 2000Q1:2015Q4 dan analisis regresi data panel menggunakan Pooled Least Square (PLS), Fixed Effect Model (FEM) dan Random Effect Model (REM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa variabel ekonomi makro yang memengaruhi yield spread adalah rasio utang luar negeri terhadap PDB, rasio keseimbangan anggaran fiskal terhadap PDB, rasio amortisasi terhadap cadangan devisa, rasio transaksi berjalan terhadap PDB, nilai tukar riil (real effective exchange rate) dan pertumbuhan PDB per kapita. Faktor eksternal yang memengaruhi yield spread adalah yield US Treasury 10 tahun dan Volatility Index (VIX).

Santraukos turinys: magistro baigiamajame darbe analizuojami legalios ir nelegalios migracijos mastai Lietuvoje, pateikiama emigrantų demografinė struktūra, emigracijos raida po nepriklausomybės atkūrimo bei įstojimo į ES. Nagrinėjami emigracijos makroekonominio ir mikroekonominio lygio veiksniai bei jų įtaka ekonominiams, socialiniams bei demografiniams procesams Lietuvoje. Darbe įvertinta reemigracijos situacija Lietuvoje bei aptartos šalies institucijų įgyvendinamos emigrantų grįžimą skatinančios priemonės. SANTRAUKA. Magistro baigiamajame darbe buvo naudojamasi moksline literatūra, atliktų tyrimų rezultatais, oficialiais pranešimais, publikacijomis bei analitiniais straipsniais, kuriuose apibūdinami gyventojų migracijos procesai, jų pasireiškimo formos, pateikti emigracijos iš Lietuvos mastai iki nepriklausomybės atkūrimo 1990 m. bei po įstojimo į ES. Įvardinti veiksniai, įtakojantys migracijos mobilumą bei nustatytos emigracijos iš Lietuvos pasekmės šaliai. Darbe nagrinėjamos emigracijos iš Lietuvos priežastys bei pasekmės vadovaujantis Lietuvos statistikos departamento duomenimis, Lietuvos darbo biržos metinėmis veiklos ataskaitomis, Lietuvos valstybės ilgalaikės strategijos duomenimis, faktorinės analizės metodais. Mokslinės literatūros analizė leidžia teigti, kad emigracijos priežasčių nustatymas, paprastai yra viena sudėtingiausių visų migracijų problemų todėl, kad dažnai priežastys supainiojamos su tikslu, kurio siekiama naujojoje šalyje. Migracijos priežasčių... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]
Resume: Master’s Thesis provide analysis of the scale of legal and illegal migration in Lithuania, presents the demographic structure of the emigrants, and the development of emigration in Lithuania after regaining the Independence and joining the EU. It also investigates macro- and microeconomic factors and the influence they make on economic, social, and demographic processes in Lithuania. This work also estimates reemigration situation in Lithuania, as well as discusses state-initialised measures for encouraging emigrants return to their homeland. SUMMARY These Master’s Thesis were completed using scientific literature, research results, oficial statements, publications, and analytical articles on migration processes and forms of their manifestation that discusses the scale of emigration from Lithuania after regaining the Independence in 1990, and after joining the EU. It also names factors that influence the mobility of migration, as well as defines the consequences of emigration from Lithuania for the state. Causes of Lithuanian emigration and their consequences are analysed with the reference to the data provided by Department of Statistics to the government of the Republic of Lithuania, the Lithuanian Labour Exchange annual reports, the information on long-term strategy of the State of Lithuania, and the method of factorial analysis. Scientific literature analysis allows maintaining that the definition of the causes for emigration is usually one of the most... [to full text]

Tinkamas kapitalo struktūros parinkimas lemia sėkmingą įmonės veiklą ir perspektyvas. Keičiantis rinkoms, finansinei ir ekonominei situacijai, keičiasi finansinių šaltinių pasirinkimo alternatyvos. Siekiant rasti optimalią įmonės kapitalo struktūrą reikia efektyviai subalansuoti skolintas ir nuosavas lėšas bei nustatyti kokie veiksniai sąlygoja kapitalo struktūros formavimą. Tai gali būti tiek vidiniai, tokie kaip įmonių galimybės skolintis, pelningumas, įmonės dydis ir kt., tiek išoriniai veiksniai: bendrasis vidaus produktas, infliacija, palūkanų norma ir kt. Šio darbo objektas – įmonių kapitalo struktūros formavimas. Darbo tikslas – ištirti Lietuvos įmonių kapitalo struktūrą sąlygojančius veiksnius bei sudaryti kapitalo struktūros ir tiriamų veiksnių ryšio modelį. Siekiant iškelto tikslo, yra nagrinėjami tokie uždaviniai: • remiantis moksline literatūra išanalizuoti įmonės kapitalo struktūros sudėtį bei pagrindines kapitalo struktūros formavimo teorijas ir principus; • atlikti empirinių tyrimų analizę, kuriuose užsienio ir Lietuvos autoriai tiria veiksnius, sąlygojančius kapitalo struktūros formavimą. Ištirti ir palyginti keleto autorių sukurtus kapitalo struktūros formavimo modelius; • sudaryti makroekonominių rodiklių ir finansinio sverto sąveikos modelį bei nustatyti makroekonominių veiksnių poveikį Lietuvos įmonių kapitalo struktūros formavimui. Išanalizavus įmonių kapitalo struktūros formavimo teorijas galima teigti, kad šios teorijos ir požiūriai neatsako į klausimą... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]
Selection of appropriate capital structure determines the success and prospects of business. With changes in markets, financial and economic situation, there are changes also to the alternatives of funding sources. In order to find the optimal capital structure one has to balance the own and borrowed funds efficiency and to identify what factors determine the structure of capital formation. This can be both internal factors, such as business lending opportunities, profitability, company size, etc., as well as external factors: gross domestic product, inflation, interest rate and others. Objective of this work is corporate capital structure formation. The aim of this work is to explore the factors influencing the capital structure formation of Lithuanian companies and develop the communication model between the analysed factors. In order to achieve the objective, the following tasks are considered: • based on scientific literature, to analyze a company's capital structure composition and the basic theories and principles of the capital structure formation; • to carry out an analysis of empirical research where foreign and Lithuanian authors investigate the factors influencing the capital structure formation. To analyse and compare models for the formation of capital structure developed by several authors; • to develop a model for the interaction of macro-economic indicators and financial leverage and determine the influence of macroeconomic factors on the capital structure... [to full text]

El presente trabajo de investigación tiene como objetivo analizar los factores internos y externos e identificar su nivel de influencia en el incremento de las exportaciones de la partida arancelara 0306.1711.00, en el marco del Tratado de Libre Comercio entre la Republica del Perú y la República de Corea en los años 2011-2019. Para explicar a mayor detalle el crecimiento de las exportaciones de langostino peruano, se identificaron como factores internos las certificaciones y medidas sanitarias y fitosanitarias. Mientras que los factores externos analizados fueron las variables macroeconómicas, la desgravación arancelaria y los fenómenos climatológicos. Con el fin de lograr los objetivos de la investigación se recabo información relevante a través de fuentes secundaria tales como Scopus, FAO, la OMC, entre otras instituciones publicado-privadas dedicadas a la investigación. Asimismo, como fuentes primarias se realizaron una serie de entrevistas con expertos de SANIPES, la Sociedad Nacional de Acuicultura, de la Oficina Comercial de Perú en Seúl, académicos y empresas en el rubro. Finalmente, en el último capítulo se presentará el factor que tuvo mayor impacto para proceder a analizar el cumplimiento de los objetivos de la investigación y validar las hipótesis.
The purpose of this research is to analyze internal and external factors and identify their level of influence on the increase in exports of tariff heading 0306.1711.00, within the framework of the Free Trade Agreement between the Republic of Peru and the Republic of Korea in the years 2011-2019. To explain in more detail the growth of Peruvian shrimp exports, certifications, sanitary and phytosanitary measures were identified as internal factors. While the external factors analyzed were macroeconomic variables, tariff relief and climatological phenomena. In order to achieve the research objectives, relevant information was collected through secondary sources such as Scopus, FAO, the WTO, among other institutions. published-private dedicated to research. Likewise, as primary sources, a series of interviews were conducted with experts from SANIPES, the National Aquaculture Society, the Commercial Office of Peru in Seoul, academics, and companies in the field. Finally, in the last chapter, the factor that had greater impact to proceed to analyze the accomplishment of the research objectives and validate the hypotheses.
Tesis

Over the last 30 years, the Inforum approach to macro modelling has been shared by economists worldwide. Researchers have focussed much of their efforts to developing a linked system of international interindustry models with a consistent methodology. A world-wide network of research associates use the same methods and software obtaining comparable results. The XXth Inforum World Conference was held in Florence in September 2012 and this book contains a selection of papers presented during that Conference. All these contributions are aimed at policymakers, stakeholders, and applied economists. Some papers are devoted to specific topics (total factor productivity, energy issues, external linkages, demographic changes) and some others are oriented to macro model building and simulations.

This chapter’s objective is to investigate which factors—macroeconomic, policy-related, or institutional—foster the implementation of structural reforms. We therefore look at episodes of structural reforms over three decades across forty OECD and EU countries and link them to these factors. Our results suggest that structural reforms implementation is more likely during deep recessions and when unemployment rates are high. Moreover, the further it is distant from best practice, the more likely a country is to implement reforms. External pressures, such as being subject to a financial assistance programme, or being part of the European Single Market facilitated pro-competitive reforms. Low interest rates tend to promote rather than discourage structural reforms, while there seems no clear link between fiscal policy and reforms. Moreover, reforms in product markets tend to increase the likelihood of labour market reforms following suit. Many robustness checks have been carried out confirming our main results.

After the Golden Age, Italy experienced increasing difficulties in adjusting its economy to the changing external context and to the requirements for sustaining catch-up growth at a higher level of economic development. The adjustment issue is common to advanced countries, but the difficulties experienced in Italy look particularly severe. Cushioned by inflation and devaluation, growth remained relatively high in the 1970s. In the subsequent decade, in spite of improved conditions for addressing macroeconomic disequilibria, structural adjustments were neglected. Major supply-side reforms were eventually implemented in the aftermath of the 1992 crisis. Nevertheless, in the second half of the decade, growth fell below the EU average. These necessary reforms fell short of what was required. Participation in EMU did not help as far as the improvement of growth prospects was concerned. In the last section, some of the economic and meta-economic factors explaining the ineffectiveness of the reform process are briefly explored.

Chapter 10 reviews the factors responsible for the strong dependence of developing countries on foreign capital and foreign aid, as well as the cyclical capital inflows and long-term development problems entailed by such a situation. It then discusses a family of models, some of which were developed after the debt crisis and recession of the 1980s and 1990s. These models aim to determine the amount of foreign loans and grants required to reach a preset rate of growth of GDP. It finally assesses the macroeconomic and growth impact of high dependence on foreign finance and foreign aid.

Utilizing the lens of Heider's (1958) attribution theory and Grable and Joo's (2004) conceptual framework, this chapter studies the effect of situational and dispositional attributions on changes in financial risk tolerance. Situational factors are assessed through changes in household situation and changes in macroeconomic factors. For dispositional factors, changes upon sensation seeking attitudes are explored. The data employed in this research come from the 1993, 1994, and 2006 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (N = 5,449). Results from structural equation modeling indicate that changes in internal attributions have a significant and positive effect (coefficient = 0.12, p <0.01) on the change in risk tolerance, as is true for changes in external attributions where a significant effect is seen (coefficient = 0.30, p <0.01). Thus, the findings from this study support the conceptual framework premised on Heider's attribution theory and Grable and Joo's (2004) conceptual model.

Utilizing the lens of Heider's (1958) attribution theory and Grable and Joo's (2004) conceptual framework, this chapter studies the effect of situational and dispositional attributions on changes in financial risk tolerance. Situational factors are assessed through changes in household situation and changes in macroeconomic factors. For dispositional factors, changes upon sensation seeking attitudes are explored. The data employed in this research come from the 1993, 1994, and 2006 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (N = 5,449). Results from structural equation modeling indicate that changes in internal attributions have a significant and positive effect (coefficient = 0.12, p <0.01) on the change in risk tolerance, as is true for changes in external attributions where a significant effect is seen (coefficient = 0.30, p <0.01). Thus, the findings from this study support the conceptual framework premised on Heider's attribution theory and Grable and Joo's (2004) conceptual model.

This chapter analyses a number of economic and developmental issues in less-developed countries (LDCs), reviewing the related literature and outlining the challenges ahead for LDCs. The issues considered include foreign direct investment (FDI) policies, recent trends on growth, civil conflict, institutional development, financial sector development, external debt, and other macroeconomic factors. These are identified as pertinent areas where LDCs have faced major challenges in their endeavours to improve economic welfare since they are related to the absorptive capacities, which are important for accruing growth benefits from inward FDI in LDCs. It is anticipated that coverage of these issues will enlighten the issues that these countries face in order to attract and utilise inward FDI. Additionally, it is argued that LDCs can avoid the risk of civil conflict by adopting proactive policies to attract FDI.

In this study, the authors analyse the socioeconomic, political and geographic conditions that are conducive of cooperative microfinance initiatives in comparison with other organizational forms in Africa. They distinguish three types of institutions (MFIs) and business models: cooperatives/credit unions, non-profit or non-governmental (NGOs and commercial banks). To analyse the enabling environment for the three business models three types of factors are distinguished: macroeconomic policy, institutional, and geographical. Multinomial logistic regression is applied to investigate the impact of these external conditions. The authors use data on 1790 MFIs in selected African countries (MIX Market) and global socioeconomic data of these countries. Their findings reveal that irrespective geographic location, cooperatives feature in countries with civil law systems, low inflation rates and high levels of economic growth. Commercial MFIs (banks) feature particularly in the countries with common law legal systems. NGO type MFIs are associated with high inflation rates and low levels of economic growth.

This chapter uses the factor-augmented vector autoregression framework to study the impact on the Hong Kong economy of the diverging monetary policies by the Fed, the European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of Japan (BoJ), as well as the slowdown of the Mainland economy. The empirical results show that shocks in US monetary policy rate mainly affect interest rate-sensitive sectors in Hong Kong and that monetary easing from the ECB and the BoJ somewhat offsets the impact of tightening of the Fed. Real variables such as real GDP growth and the unemployment rate are more sensitive to the economic slowdown in Mainland China. However, Hong Kong’s financial stability, particularly with regard to loan quality, banks’ capital and liquidity, is well maintained by macroprudential policies, suggesting that Hong Kong’s financial system is resilient to external shocks.

Рассмотрение тенденций развития Мурманской области обладает неизменной актуальностью в силу динамизма внешней среды, включая как макроэкономические условия, так и внешнеполитические, и управленческие факторы влияния. Цель рассмотреть современные особенности социальноэкономической динамики Мурманской области в контексте новых макроэкономических условий и управленческих факторов. Рассмотрена динамика статистических показателей, отражающих состояние человеческого капитала Мурманской области, специфику производственных процессов в регионе, рассмотрены некоторые вопросы управления на региональном уровне. Consideration of trends in the development of the Murmansk region has a constant relevance due to the dynamism of the external environment, including both macroeconomic conditions and foreign policy and management factors of influence. The aim is to consider the modern features of the socioeconomic dynamics of the Murmansk region in the context of new macroeconomic conditions and management factors. The dynamics of statistical indicators reflecting the state of human capital of the Murmansk region, the specifics of production processes in the region are considered, some issues of management at the regional level are considered.

In modern conditions corporations are a core of economic system and many macroeconomic indicators depend on growth of corporations. Quality and intensity of growth of corporations depend on many factors, both internal, and external. Institutional factors, including efficiency of the contract relations, level of tax burden, quality of corporate institutes have huge impact on growth of corporations. The purpose of this work – to reveal factors of growth of the Russian corporations and to construct models of the Russian corporations’ growth in a branch section. In research the assessment influence of tax loading on efficiency of the contract relations and growth of the Russian corporations is carried out. The analysis of growth of the Russian corporations in various branches (oil and gas, metallurgy, power industry) is carried out and models of their growth taking into account such factors, as tax burden, level of dividend payments and level of compensation of the administrative personnel are constructed. The degree of tax burden to efficiency improvement of contractual relations in Russian corporations was analyzed. The growth rate of sales revenue was taken as an indicator of the corporation efficiency. The factors influencing the growth rate of sales revenue were analyzed, the basis for the analysis was Cobb-Douglas production function with some clarifications.

The aim of this work is to propose a strategy to classify texts (or parts of them) in an ordinal emotional scale to gauge a sentiment indicator in every domain. In particular, we develop a new dictionary for the Italian language which is built using an objective method where the polarities of synonyms and antonyms are accounted for in an iterative process. To build our sentiment indicator negations and intensifiers are also used, thus considering the context in which the single word is written. We apply our new dictionary to extract the sentiment from a set of around 40 issues of the Bank of Italy quarterly Economic Bulletin. Our results show that our strategy is able to correctly identify the sentiment expressed in the Bulletins, which is correlated to the main macroeconomic variables (such as national GDP, investment, consumption or unemployment rate). Our analysis shows that sentiment represents not only an evaluation of the stylistic way in which texts are written, but also a valid synthesis of all the external factors analysed in the same document.

This study aims to explore the long-term productivity dynamics of the economy of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus by using a simple Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Model. More specifically, we aim to analyze the impact of macroeconomic instability and socio-economic infrastructure on total factor productivity over the 1977-2017 period. Additionally, this study develops a socio-economic infrastructure index by combining information from communication, energy, education and health indicators. The main result of this paper is that while total factor productivity is positively and significantly affected by the improvements in socio-economic infrastructure it is negatively affected from the external macroeconomic instability.

This article deals with the state of marketing and its role in strengthening macroeconomic indicators of the Kyrgyz Republic, but it does not apply in the country properly. The need for the use of state marketing is intensifying with the entering of Kyrgyzstan to EEU as a member. To improve the structure of foreign trade, it is proposed marketing initiatives and research on the study of the external market, the internal potential of the country, specialization of production, the creation of "umbrella brand" for the country, the best way of satisfying consumers of public services, effective control of the quality and safety of products, regulation of the relevant parameters, that meet international standards, the fight against counterfeit, creating a positive image of Kyrgyzstan in the world and others.

A well-established theory in macroeconomics is that governments running persistent deficits have sooner or later to finance those deficits with money creation, thus producing inflation. The fiscal view of inflation has been especially prominent in the developing country literature, which has long recognized that less efficient tax collection, political instability, and more limited access to external borrowing tend to lower the relative cost of seigniorage and increase dependence on the inflation tax. For this reason, the main factors which affecting inflation rate in developing countries are extremely important for policy makers as when the causes of inflation are correctly specified the appropriate policy change can be easily diagnosed and effectively implemented. The purpose of this study is to test the empirical relationship between inflation and the budget deficit for the Turkish economy by an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) analysis for the period 1970–2010. The data is taken from Republic of Turkey Ministry of Development and World Bank’s Database. The empirical findings indicates that fiscal deficit is one of the important variables of the price level along with other variables like interest rates, exchange rate, per capita income, trade of GDP. The short-run analysis captured from error correction model (ECM). The results of the bounds test suggest that there is a long run relationship between fiscal deficit and inflation. These findings drive important inferences for implications of monetary and fiscal policies.

The convergence of a favorable macroeconomic environment and high prices of primary commodities between 2000 and 2011 contributed to the best performance of agriculture in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) since the 1980s, with steady growth of total factor productivity (TFP) and output per worker and a reduction in the use of input per worker. The end of the upward phase of the commodity cycle in 2011 together with less favorable external markets and a deterioration of the policy environment in several countries, motivates us to revisit the situation of agriculture in LAC in recent years to analyze how these changes have affected its performance. This study applies a framework that uses index numbers together with data envelopment analysis (DEA) to estimate levels of productivity and efficiency, incorporating technical change together with technical (TE) and environmental efficiency (EE) into the decomposition of TFP. The EE index adjusts the TFP measure for pollution, treating GHG emissions as a by-product of the desired crop or livestock outputs. TFP and efficiency of crop and livestock sub-sectors was calculated for 24 LAC countries from 2000 to 2016. Our results show that the period of fast agricultural growth in LAC, driven by technical change and resource reallocation, transformed agriculture in the region leaving it in a better position to cope with the more unfavorable regional macroeconomic environment and the less dynamic global markets observed after 2011.

This paper analyzes the behavior of a long list of economic variables during episodes of recovery from an economic collapse. A set of stylized facts is proposed so as to depict what in this work is called \saygrowth recoveries. Through different estimation techniques, it is inferred under which conditions and policies the likelihood of experiencing a growth recovery increases. The results of the paper indicate that collapses tend to occur in countries with high dependence on natural resource rents, macroeconomic mismanagement, low levels of democratic accountability and rule of law and high levels of conflict. Recoveries, on the other hand, tend to be longer than collapses and are more likely to occur in contexts of: improved external conditions, less natural resource rents, balanced fiscal accounts, where the exchange rate corrects but within a more fixed exchange rate regime and a more restricted financial account, and where there are: rebounds in private consumption, increases in international trade and improvements on property rights.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.