Academic literature on the topic 'Factors affecting tourism'

Background: The recent development and the forecasted high growth in tourism sector of Bangladesh give an insight that it has great potentials to develop into a world class tourist zone and requires examination.
 Aim: The aim of this study is to investigate the factors that impact tourist satisfaction in Bangladesh. Research Methods: A questionnaire survey design was applied in order to determine the influential factors that have substantial impact on tourist satisfaction. Respondents from all over Bangladesh participated in the survey.
 Results: The results indicate that the identified factors affect tourist satisfaction. From among the factors¸ information significantly influence tourist satisfaction. The findings suggest to put emphasis on information¸ accommodation¸ safety and security factors for boosting the level of tourist satisfaction.
 Conclusion: The paper provides enhanced information for tourism authorities¸ and tour operators/managers about the tourists’ perception in Bangladesh. By understanding how and what kind of different services and benefits are to provide¸ they can take actions for enhancing tourist satisfaction. The study offers an insight on tourists’ perception in Bangladesh. It also expands the literature on the relevant field.

Sharia tourism is part of the halal industry which becomes one of the major supporters of the sharia economy in Indonesia. Nevertheless, since 2011, the city of Bandung as the epicentrum of sharia tourism experienced a decreasing number of visitors. The purpose of this study is to analyze the factors that influence tourist interest in visiting sharia tourism destinations. The research method is quantitative. The results of this study indicate that service, safety, and tourism influence tourist interest. The safety and promotion factors significantly influence tourist interest in visiting Sharia tourism, while service has no significant effect on tourist interest.

Based on the survey (2013) of Mount Qian tourist attraction in Liaoning and the questionnaire on tourists home and abroad, the writer analyzes the data concerning tourists’ protection of tourism environment and thus draws the conclusion that a host of factors can account for the difference in tourists’ behavior and attitudes to environmental protection. Key factors include gender, level of education, awareness of environmental protection, attitude to environment and pressure from people around. Pressure from others is the most influential variable among these factors. Statistics also show that travellers tend to be passive in their involvement in enviromental protection.

Introduction: Although many factors can affect the choice of destination in medical tourism, some factors are indispensable to medical tourists and medical tourism. The aim of this study was to analyze important factors affecting the selection of a destination by potential medical tourists. Methods: This descriptive, cross-sectional study, conducted in Turkey, included a population of 1700 people and a sample size of 317 people selected through purposive sampling. Values were evaluated with a 95% confidence interval and 0.05 standard error. A value of P<0.05 was considered statistically significant. The medical tourism scale and a demographic information form were used in data collection. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA), confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), and path analysis were used as statistical methods. Analyses were made using IBM SPSS-AMOS 25.0. Results: In this study, 56.5% of the participants were male and 43.5% were female. The factors affecting the selection of medical tourism destinations were determined to be, in order of importance, accessibility of health care service (X̄ = 4.68 ± 1.073), level of security and safety (X̄ = 4:57 ± 1.122), quality of health care service (X̄ = 4:39 ± 1.129), level of hygiene (X̄ = 4.16 ± 1.381), potential of savings-low cost (X̄ = 4.07 ± 1.447), and tourism opportunities (X̄ = 4.02 ± 1.540). Conclusion: It is thought that the current study will make a serious contribution to the field of medical tourism both in practice and in theory.

Based on measurements made by Frontier Consulting Group and Tempo Media Group, the tourism index of Bandung City is one of the highest in Indonesia, reaching 95.30 or higher than Denpasar City with Tourism Index 87.65 and City of Yogyakarta with Tourism Index 85.68.
 Bandung has many excellent tourist objects that have their attraction. Bandung, as a creative city, always tries to create a different tourism concept. It is done as a marketing tourism strategy to increase the number of tourists who come to visit the city of Bandung. This research examines how much these factors influence marketing tourism, and which factors are the most dominant in affecting marketing tourism. Based on the result of the six tourism marketing factors, namely economic factors, social factors, cultural factors, tourist attraction factors, perceptions of information technology, and environmental perception factors, which were previously formed by 31 manifest variables. The dominant new factor found in representing the factors of tourism marketing, namely the environmental attractiveness factor.

Tourism is considered as one of the major sources for creating employment opportunities, generating revenues and supporting culture and entertainment. Travel and tourism plays a vital role by associating themselves with other industries of Pakistan which leads to rise in foreign investment, opportunities of trade, investments in private, local development, and public infrastructure. This study aims to explore the influence of the factors (travel decision making, media, perceived risk, terrorism and safety & security) tourists’ decision making of tourists residing in Pakistan. This is a quantitative study, data was collected from 50 people using questionnaire at 5-point Likert Scale. Data was analysed using descriptive statistics and regression method. The results of this study depict that role of media, safety & security, and terrorism have significant impact on travel decision making. Within the context of Pakistan terrorism is always a highlighted area on which every tourist think a lot while making a destination choice. Particularly negative media coverage also has significant importance on travel decision making of a tourist. In Pakistani context, this study found that risk perception was supposed more than the actual risk because travel decision to a new place is always riskier somehow, therefore, it has no effect on travel decision making. Tourist develops an insight that what factor is more significant in travel decision making. This study recommends that media, safety and security and terrorism policies are critical for Pakistan to cater the number of tourist by helping them in travel decision making.

The purpose of the article is to determine whether potential tourists consider information about a city’s air quality in their assessment of its tourist attractiveness and how this this information affects their travel decisions. Urban tourism is a common and dynamically developing form of tourism. Cities encourage tourists to visit them with various attractions, cultural, gastronomic and accommodation offerings as well as mass events. At the same time, they are often industrial centres and important transportation hubs, which makes them characterized by a high degree of air pollution. The article presents results of a survey involving 509 respondents from Poland. The data were used to assessment to what extent information about air quality in a given city is relevant for people planning a tourist trip. In addition, the survey provided information about factors that could increase the respondents’ interest in the level of air quality in a city they were planning to visit. Particular attention was paid to the respondents’ health. Many diseases can be the result of air pollution, or can be aggravated by substances contained in smog. Therefore, the authors tried to determine whether people suffering from such illnesses were more likely to pay special attention to air quality in their prospective destinations. The results constitute a significant contribution to the knowledge about the factors affecting demand in urban tourism. They may be relevant for entities responsible for managing cities and promoting tourism products. The article also draws attention to the fact that problems arising from air pollution in cities can affect not only their residents, but also tourists.

The paper aims to understand residents' perceptions and opinions of tourism impacts and to determine whether there is a relationship between tourism impacts and support/participation in tourism in a developing region: The Aurès. A total of 360 questionnaires were collected from the inhabitants of 4 villages, selected according to their tourist frequentation. 50 items concerning demographic characteristics, tourism impacts and tourist support/involvement were used. The results indicate that the inhabitants generally have positive perceptions and opinions towards tourism development. Motivated by the economic factor and concerned about privacy issues, residents of villages with tourist traffic are more supportive of tourism development than others. From the perspective of the tourism development that the city government has initiated, these results provide useful information for the planning and management of future tourism projects.

Since 1974, tourists are attracted in Leh district for its mountainous landscape, environment, high altitude lakes, Indus River, beautiful villages and Himalayan people living in scenography valleys filled of Buddhist heritage sites. All makes this region a great place for adventure sports, sightseen, cultural and religious tourism. Tourism industry has rapidly become one of the most important aspects of District development paths. Visitors bring hard currency and spend money contributing to monetary economic boom that can have both positive and negative impacts on the society and territory. Tourism in Leh District has a short season (from May to October) but a highly profitable business especially with national visitors increasing by the day. This study, based on data collected from the Tourism Department in Leh, analyses the international and national tourist arrivals in time series to find out pattern and trends in the historical data and investigate global and local factors affecting tourist inflows (rises or falls) in the District. Yearly arrivals depends on several factors and issues as geopolitical and global economic problems, new trends in tourist destinations, film induced tourism, climate changes, natural disasters, pandemic and more. These unpredictable factors affect tourist flows, decreasing or increasing the arrivals even drastically. The long-term sustainability of the local development must not depend mainly on mass tourism because economic dependence on only one, although promising but fluctuating sector, pose several problems (e.g. impacts and pressure on infrastructures, environment and significant socio-cultural changes.

Thesis (M.Bus.) -- La Trobe University, 2006.<br>"A thesis submitted in total fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Business, [to the] School of Sport, Tourism and Hospitality Management, Faculty of Law and Management, La Trobe University, Bundoora". Research. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 159-184). Also available via the World Wide Web.

<p>Pakistan is a home of approximately 160 million people and most of the population is earning lessthan US$ 1 per day. Pakistan just like any other beautiful European country is a big market fortourism because it offers not only beauty of nature but also variety and diversity in cultures.Infacttourism is the most profitable and entrepreneurial business, especially for people living in the mountain areas as it creates new job opportunities and reduces the unemployment level for them. But unfortunately, tourists’ visit to Pakistan is decreasing tremendously with ups and downs each year.</p><p> </p><p>Therefore, the purpose of my thesis is to search for the positive and negative factors affecting the tourism industry in Pakistan, to compare the performance of our tourism industry to some potential neighbouring countries to see where Pakistan stands and lacks in terms of competitiveness, to find the role of government towards the improvment of this industry and to suggest some possible strategies for the improvement of this industry.</p><p> </p><p>The primary data was collected by conducting interviews and survey questionnaires inside and outside the country from domestic and international tourists in 2007 and 2008. My son and close relatives in Belgium, Sweden and UK helped me in getting the questionnaire filled by foreigners to study their views about Pakistan as tourist place. The secondary data was collected through my personal visit to PTDC and Ministry of Tourism.</p><p> </p><p>The estimated results revile that the poor accessibility, under development, fragility, marginality and the continuous social / political problems of the country are the factors that have redcued the tourist visit ratio to Pakistan. Secondly, the Governmnet of Pakistan has also failed to implement policies and strategies that could have proved a stimulator for the tourism industry.</p><p> </p><p>The conclusion drawn from the collected data is that the tourism industry of Pakistan has a lot of ups and downs in alternate years i.e. from 1995 till 2008 showing the worst year of tourism in 2008.The reasons for this fall lie in the political and social problems of the country and lack of active participation of tourism authorities. Domestic and international tourists love the nature, culture and food of Pakistan and 80% of them want to travel around pakistan but unfortunately the insurgency and lack of facilities have resulted in the falling rate of their travel.</p><p> </p><p>My suggestions for the progress of this industry are that the Governments should show seriousness towards the tourism industry and take necessary steps like improving the tourism infrastructure, controll the insergency in the country as soon as possible, build strong relationships with outside world, portray the positive image of Pakistan via media etc so that the rank and standard of Pakistans tourism industry can improve globally.</p><p> </p><p>Research limitations that I faced during data collection includes the limited information sharing by the PTDC and Ministry of Tourism as their data is not up dated properly. Secondly there is a lot of difficulty in finding local and international potential tourists due to the political and social disturbance in the country and also the shy and introvert behaviour of the people especially women. Therefore, I also made use of the idea of conducting survey outside the country.</p><p> </p><p>The important aspect or value of this research is that it has brought in to consideration almost all the important factors that are effecting the tourism industry according to the view of potential tourists and at the end provide some suggestions that can improve the current deterioating condition of this industry.</p>

The main aim of this thesis was to find out the factors affecting the tourism industry in Pakistan. Moreover the specific objectives was to analyze the impact of terrorist attack and currency exchange rate on tourism. The research was conducted through interviews, survey questionnaires inside and outside the country and also by the regression analysis for the period 2000 to 2013. The results from questionnaire and interview reveals that terrorist attacks is the major factor which have reduced the tourists visit ratio to Pakistan. Furthermore, the results of regression analysis also revealed that there is a negative and significant relationship between terrorist attacks and foreign tourist arrivals in the country. Hence, the researcher suggest that Government of Pakistan should more focus on maintaining peace and security for attracting tourists.

The aim of this master thesis is to analyze the current trends in tourism in the European union. Then also determine which factors influence its further development, as well as predict the future trends in tourism in the EU. The thesis is also trying to answer scientific questions regarding the impact of the global economic and financial crisis on the development of tourism in the regions of the European Union, the specific factors affecting the tourism trends in the European Union and the activities of the institutions of the European Union to support the positive development of tourism in the European Union. The thesis is divided into three chapters. The first is theoretically based and contains definitions of terms related to tourism, the methodology of its research, its development and its economic importance. The second focuses on the position of the EU in the issue of tourism in comparison with the world and other regions, as well as on current trends in individual regions of the European Union and their main tourist destinations. The third chapter analyzes the current trends, including factors that may affect them. It also includes information about the activities of the institutions of the European Union to promote tourism in this area, information about sustainable tourism development in the EU and specific prediction of the future development of tourism in the European Union.

The diploma thesis deals with the importance of tourism for the Czech Republic and barriers that hinder from its optimal development. Within the thesis, the document called "55 barriers of tourism in Czech Republic" is analysed and individual barriers are described in details. On the basis of a survey among tourism experts and specialists, the significance of these barriers was updated and evaluated.

碩士<br>中原大學<br>企業管理研究所<br>102<br>Abstract Along with the rapid development of economics, people’s demand for the best quality of tour and sightseeing greatly increase. Moreover, as the environmental awareness improves, various countries emphasize the development of tourism industry. Consequently, the development of tourism industry in Taiwan has also steadily grown during the past decade. For example, Taiwan’s foreign tourists grew rapid from 2.95 million in 2004 to 8.01 million in 2013. (i.e, the growth rate is 172%). Additionally, the number of people for tour and sightseeing purposes also grew from 1.03 million in 2004 to 5.48 million in 2013. (i.e, the growth rate is 432%), partly because the rapid development of the relationship between Mainland China and Taiwan and the openess of free and independent travel for Chinese tourists (i.e, the tourists from mainland China grew from 200,000 in 2004 to 2.87 million in 2013). The tourist industry created NT$374.8 billion foreign exchange revenues in 2013, accounting for about 2.5% of Taiwan’s GDP. This fact indicates that the growth rate of tourism industry plays an important role in the economic development of Taiwan. This study employs panel data model to examine the impact of the growth rate of total tourists and that of tour and sightseeing on the stock returns of tourism industry during the period of Aug. 2008 to Dec. 2013. For the past six years, we found that 87.4% of the tourists came from China, Japan, South East Asia and Hong Kong and Macao, so that the tourists came from these four areas have great impacts on the foreign exchange revenues and economic growth of Taiwan. This investigation thus examines the impact of the growth rate of tourists from the above four areas on the stock return of tourism industry. Empirical results are summarized below: 1.The growth rate of total tourists does not have significant influence on stock returns, but that of tour and sightseeing has significantly positive impact on stock returns of tourism industry. 2.The growth rate of tourists from China does not have significant effect on stock return of tourism industry, but that of tour and sightseeing has significantly positive influence on stock returns of tourism industry. 3.Neither the growth rate of tourists from Japan nor that of tour and sightseeing have significant impact on stock returns of tourism industry. 4.Neither the growth rate of tourists from South East Asia nor that of tour and sightseeing have significant effect on stock returns of tourism industry. 5.Both the growth rate of tourists from Hong Kong and Macao and that of tour and sightseeing have significantly positive influence on stock returns of tourism industry.

AbstractAirbnb is widely popular among tourists around the world and in the hospitality industry. With Airbnb being a sharing economy and a type of e-commerce platform, consumers’ trust in it is an important issue. This study proposed three information technology factors affecting trust in Airbnb from positive and negative aspects. Personality traits affecting trust in Airbnb and its hosts are also put forward. Using data collected from Chinese Airbnb users, this study applied the structural equation modeling (SEM) to test the proposed hypotheses. Results suggest various implications for Airbnb and similar sharing economy platforms.

As in many countries of the world rapidly developing and modernizing the importance of tourism is growing in Kazakhstan. On the one hand each year a greater number of kazak citizens going to abroad and the other hand, many foreign visitors coming every year in to the Kazakhstan. Scope of this article is what components are effective for the development of tourism in Kazakhstan and how to change the direction in which these elements should. Espically Turkey's experience in the tourism sector has made planned and rapid growth, required to be shared with academics from Kazakhstan.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.