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Lam, Kenneth. "Is the Fama-French three-factor model better than the CAPM? /." Burnaby B.C. : Simon Fraser University, 2005. http://ir.lib.sfu.ca/handle/1892/2094.
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Mao, Bin. "An empirical study of the Fama and French three-factor model." Thesis, University of Aberdeen, 2009. http://digitool.abdn.ac.uk:80/webclient/DeliveryManager?pid=208283.
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In recent years there has been increasing empirical evidence that appears to support the view that the Fama and French three-factor model is highly effective in capturing the systematic risks associated with equity rates of return. It has equally been recognised that the three-factor model does not have the theoretical sophistication of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). This comparison presents a puzzle that hinges on a search for explanations of the sources of the two extra risk factors that are central to the three-factor model. These factors are: first, the size premium (defined as the difference between rates of return on a large size stocks and small size stocks); and, second the value premium (defined as the difference between rates of return on high Book-to-Market stocks and low Book-to-Market stocks). The purpose of this thesis is to offer a careful empirical analysis of the Fama and French three-factor model, which will add to our knowledge about the source of the systematic risks associated with these two factors. The study consists of three sections. In the first section, the three-factor model is tested under the time-varying volatility condition by using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) models in two time periods, June 1963-December 1991 and September 1927-December 2005 in the US market. The results indicate that the time-varying volatility does not improve the performance of the three-factor model in explaining the rates of return, but it does enhance the efficiency of the regression model by reducing the value of standard deviation and serial autocorrelation within residuals. In the second and third section, the potential relationship of the value premium with several macroeconomic risk factors, measured as the industrial production, inflation rate, the money supply, and the interest rate, are tested from January 1959 to December 2005 in US market. By using the methodology of the Cointegration test to focus on the long run relationship and conditional volatility by GARCH model to focus on risk relationship, the results suggest that i) the value premium is related to the changes of fundamental risk; ii) there is an asymmetric effect on the price of the value stock and growth stock under different business conditions; iii) and the three risk factors are driven by a similar source of macroeconomic activity change, but the interactive relationship between these three risk factors is essential in explaining the rates of return, thus, they should be used together. Overall, the results in this thesis support the view that the Fama and French three-factor model is a strong model in explaining rates of return, and that the value premium is generated from systemic risk and should be used in the equilibrium asset pricing model. The finding is useful for academics and practitioners alike.
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Marklund, Christian, and Joakim Hansen. "Existerar volatilitetssymmetri? : En studie i volatilitet och reala optioners effekt på Sverigesaktiemarknad." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Företagsekonomi, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-90514.
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Problembakgrund: Studier för sambandet mellan volatilitet och avkastning har för det aggregerade marknadsperspektivet varit odelat enliga i att detta är negativt. Detsamma gäller inte sambandet vid studier på aktier för enskilda företag där ett antal har kunnat observera ett positivt samband. Detta skulle betyda att det är fördelaktigt när en akties volatilitet ökar, vilket går emot tidigare teorier som säger att sjunkande aktiekurser leder till en ökande volatilitet. I en teori har reala optioner presenterats som en förklaring genom dess konvexitet som leder till ett samtidigt ökande värde när volatilitet ökar. Problemformulering: Existerar ett positivt samband mellan volatilitet och avkastning för enskilda aktier noterade på den svenska aktiemarknaden? Syfte: Studiens huvudsyfte ligger i att avgöra om det går att observera ett positivt samband mellan volatilitet och avkastning på företagsnivå. Sambandet kontrolleras för de variabler som indikerar på en relativt stor tillgång reala optioner för att avgöra om ett företags flexibilitet gör att avkastning och volatilitet ökar samtidigt genom de reala optionernas värdeökning i enlighet med den teori presenterad av Grullon, Lyandres och Zhdanov. Ett delsyfte är därefter att undersöka huruvida vanliga prisjämviktsmodellers förklaringsgrad kan förbättras för att utreda om reala optioner har en så betydande effekt för svenska aktiers avkastning att investerare bör ta dessa i beaktande. Teori: Studien avhandlar de två teorier som tidigare presenterats som huvudförklaringar för det asymmetriska sambandet mellan volatilitet och avkastning, hävstångseffekten och volatilitetsfeedback-effekten. Dessutom presenteras den teori som genom ett företags flexibilitet eventuellt förklarar ett symmetriskt samband och de nyckeltal som indikerar på en relativ tillgång reala optioner. För att kunna undersöka detta samband använder vi CAPM, Fama-French tre- och Carhart fyrfaktormodell, samt en vidare modifierad modell som beaktar reala optioner. Metod: För att besvara vår problemformulering har vi valt att genomföra denna kvantitativa studie med en deduktivt ansats. Ett totalurval bestående av 1131 företag på aktiemarknaden mellan åren 1992 – 2011 ligger som grund för de statistiska testen. Empiri/analys: Resultaten visar på att det inte föreligger ett positivt samband mellan volatilitet och avkastning för enskilda aktier noterade i Sverige, det samband vi finner är signifikant negativt. De undersökta prisjämviktsmodellerna visar på en något ökande förklaringsgrad för de variabler som indikerar reala optioner men utan signifikanta resultat. Dessa resultat skiljer sig från referensstudien på den amerikanska marknaden av Grullon et al. som kunnat visa på ett positivt samband. Slutsats: Ett existerande symmetriskt samband går inte att helt utesluta, resultaten visar däremot på att de teorier som driver ett negativt samband är dominerande på den svenska marknaden. Detta kan bero på exempelvis skillnader i företagsklimat eller juridiska trösklar mellan länder som hämmar ett företags möjligheter till att vara flexibla och att denna effekt därför blir begränsad.
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Boros, Daniel, and Claes Eriksson. "Does size matter? : An empirical study modifying Fama & French's three factor model to detect size-effect based on turnover in the Swedish markets." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Nationalekonomi, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-117836.
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This thesis investigates whether the estimation of the cost of equity (or the expected return) in the Swedish market should incorporate an adjustment for a company’s size. This is what is commonly known as the size-effect, first presented by Banz (1980) and has later been a part of models for estimating cost of equity, such as Fama & French’s three factor model (1992). The Fama & French model was developed based on empirical research. Since the model was developed, the research on the size-effect has been divided and today there are empirical studies contradicting its existence. Arguments against the size-effect are to some extent supported by the fact that there is no solid theoretical explanation for it. It seems however that market participants in the Swedish markets do adjust for the size.A limitation of the Fama & French model is that market data is required for the estimation. Our starting point is to investigate if there is a presence of the size-effect in the Swedish markets using a modified version Fama & French model. In our modified model a proxy for the market value of the firm has been introduced, namely the firms turnover. This is motivated by the fact data regarding a company’s turnover is available for private firms as well. In the case that size-effect is observable using the turnover as a proxy this would allow to extend the model to estimate the cost of equity for private firms. In the case where a consistent estimated marginal effect of the turnover is observed, our model could be used to estimate cost of equity with reasonable precision. Historical data on Swedish companies from each of the OMX Large, Mid & Small cap lists is used in a regression setting to investigate if any statistical significant results can be observed on whether the logarithm of the turnover affects the expected return.Our results indicate that the marginal effect of the turnover is positive, contradicting previous research and economic intuition that size of a company should be negatively correlated (or uncorrelated) with the expected return. By investigating the internal and external validity of the results, comparison to previous research and assessing data quality, we conclude that errors originating from these factors are not plausible to cause the unintuitive results. We therefore conclude that the use of turnover as a proxy for market value is not viable, which may be attributed to the fundamental relationship between the turnover and cost of equity in valuation formulas. Conclusively we cannot draw any further conclusions regarding presence of size-effect in the Swedish equity markets and discard the possibility of using our modified model for estimating cost of equity for private firms.
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Michaelides, Michael. "Revisiting the CAPM and the Fama-French Multi-Factor Models: Modeling Volatility Dynamics in Financial Markets." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/77515.
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The primary objective of this dissertation is to revisit the CAPM and the Fama-French multi-factor models with a view to evaluate the validity of the probabilistic assumptions imposed (directly or indirectly) on the particular data used. By thoroughly testing the assumptions underlying these models, several departures are found and the original linear regression models are respecified. The respecification results in a family of heterogeneous Student's t models which are shown to account for all the statistical regularities in the data. This family of models provides an appropriate basis for revisiting the empirical adequacy of the CAPM and the Fama-French multi-factor models, as well as other models, such as alternative asset pricing models and risk evaluation models. Along the lines of providing a sound basis for reliable inference, the respecified models can serve as a coherent basis for selecting the relevant factors from the set of possible ones. The latter contributes to the enhancement of the substantive adequacy of the CAPM and the multi-factor models.Ph. D.
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Lagnado, Leonardo Mathiazzi. "Introducing additional factors for the Brazilian market in the fama-french five-factor asset pricing model." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/17047.
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This dissertation is aimed at evaluating the risk-return relationship of stocks by incrementing the Fama and French five-factor model (F. FAMA and R. FRENCH, 2015) with two new variables. This was done by creating a six-factor model aimed at capturing the size, value, profitability, investment and governance patterns in average stock returns. An additional seven-factor model was also created by adding a herding factor. Governance and herding were chosen as additional factors because of a hypothesis that they would be relevant in less efficient markets such as Brazil. The evaluation of the two model´s performance versus the traditional five-factor model was performed next, as well as the assessment of relevance of the newly added factors. Testing the six-factor model, it had a similar performance to the five-factor model, and the governance factor proved to be relevant in the Brazilian market. Adding the herding factor weakened the results, although the factor still proved to be relevant in some cases.
O objetivo desta dissertação é avaliar a relação risco-retorno de ações incrementando o modelo de cinco fatores de Fama e French (F. FAMA and R. FRENCH, 2015) com duas novas variáveis. Isso foi feito criando um modelo de seis fatores que busca capturar os padrões de tamanho, valor, lucratividade, investimento e governança nos retornos médios de ações. Um modelo adicional de sete fatores também foi criado adicionando um fator para o efeito manada. A governança e o efeito manada foram escolhidos como fatores adicionais por conta da hipótese de que eles seriam relevantes em mercados menos eficientes como o Brasil. A avaliação da performance dos dois modelos contra o modelo tradicional de cinco fatores foi então realizada, bem como a avaliação da relevância dos novos fatores. Testando o modelo de seis fatores, descobrimos que ele tem uma performance semelhante ao de cinco fatores, e o fator de governança mostrou ser relevante no mercado Brasileiro. Adicionando o fator para o efeito manada enfraqueceu os resultados, embora o fator ainda mostrou-se relevante em alguns casos.
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Rehnby, Nicklas. "Does the Fama-French three-factor model and Carhart four-factor model explain portfolio returns better than CAPM? : - A study performed on the Swedish stock market." Thesis, Karlstads universitet, Handelshögskolan, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kau:diva-43784.
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This essay will compare the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), Fama and French threefactor model and Carhart´s four-factor model, to see which of these models that can explain portfolio excess returns best on the Swedish stock market. This thesis will tempt to validate the three and four-factor models because of the limited amount of research done on the Swedish stock market. The results indicate that the three-factor model improves explanatory power for portfolio returns in comparison to the CAPM, and the four-factor model gives a small improvement in the explanatory power compared to the three-factor model. The results also indicate that all models have a low explanatory power when the market is volatile.
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Hajric, Amina, and Kajsa Larsson. "Utvärdering av CAPM och Fama & French-trefaktormodellen : en studie på den svenska marknaden." Thesis, Högskolan Kristianstad, Sektionen för hälsa och samhälle, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hkr:diva-17214.
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Det är sedan länge känt att det finns en positiv korrelation mellan risk och avkastning. Investerare och bolag kan välja mellan flera olika prissättningsmodeller för att förutspå priset på en aktie. Forskare har, med den kända enfaktormodellen CAPM som utgångspunkt, utvecklat en modell som tar hänsyn till mer än bara marknadsfaktorn. Detta resulterade i framtagandet av Fama & French-trefaktormodellen (FF3) som även inkluderar storleksfaktorn SMB samt värdefaktorn HML. Syftet med studien är att utvärdera två prissättningsmodeller, CAPM och FF3, för att kunna bedöma deras prestanda vid värdering av förväntad avkastning. Tidigare forskning, inom området för nämnda modeller, berör ofta internationella marknader samt modellernas prestanda för portföljer. Vår studie utförs på utvalda enskilda svenska aktier inkluderade på Stockholmsbörsens Large Cap för januari år 2011 till december år 2015, genom att replikera tidigare forskning gjord av Bartholdy & Peare (2005). Utvalda bolag analyseras efter regressioner för modellerna för att kunna utvärdera dessa var för sig, samt för att se om FF3 har en högre justerad förklaringsgrad än CAPM för enskilda svenska aktier. Resultatet av studien visar att både CAPM och FF3 är applicerbara för utvalda enskilda svenska aktier. Ställs FF3 i förhållande till CAPM föreligger skillnad i justerad förklaringsgrad, dock är den ytterst marginell. Sammanfattningsvis bidrar studien med kunskapen om att CAPM och FF3 går att applicera på enskilda svenska aktier, men att det inte föreligger någon större skillnad i val av dessa två modeller.Investors and companies can choose between multiple pricing models to predict the price of shares. With the known one factor model CAPM, researchers have developed a model that consider more than just the market factor. This resulted in the creation of the Fama & French three factor model (FF3), which also includes the size factor SMB and the value factor HML. The purpose of the study is to evaluate two pricing models, CAPM and FF3, to assess their performance when evaluating expected returns. Previous research often deal with international markets and model performance of portfolios. We study selected individual Swedish shares for January 2011 to December 2015 by replicating previous research by Bartholdy & Peare (2005). Selected companies are analysed by regressions for the models to be able to evaluate these separately, and to see if FF3 has a higher degree of explanation than CAPM for individual Swedish shares. The result of the study shows that both CAPM and FF3 are applicable for selected individual Swedish shares. There is a difference in the adjusted degree of explanation between the models but it is marginal. In conclusion, the study contributes with the knowledge that CAPM and FF3 can be applied to individual Swedish shares, but there is no major difference in the choice of these two models.
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Suh, Daniel. "Stock returns, risk factor loadings, and model predictions a test of the CAPM and the Fama-French 3-factor model /." Morgantown, W. Va. : [West Virginia University Libraries], 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10450/10744.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--West Virginia University, 2009.Title from document title page. Document formatted into pages; contains x, 146 p. : col. ill. Includes abstract. Includes bibliographical references.
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Issar, Rajiv Issar. "Market Capitalization and Firm Value: The Size Factor." ScholarWorks, 2017. https://scholarworks.waldenu.edu/dissertations/4224.
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Current multifactor valuation pricing models use size (measured by market capitalization) of a firm as one factor to determine the value of a security. The problem with current standard models was that none of them could explain the value of a security consistently and accurately based on current factors and in particular the size factor. The purpose of this quantitative study using existing time-series data over a 10-year period from 2006 to 2015 was to examine the impact of size factor on the realized rate of return of financial securities, while controlling for the impact of market rate of return. There are currently many valuation models but there is no 2-factor model or a model that uses a size factor that includes mid-cap sized securities. The research questions examined mid-cap sized securities for the size factor in a 2-factor model to determine the accuracy of predicting financial returns compared to the current standard Fama-French 3-factor model. The main theoretical framework that guided the study was the efficient market hypothesis that postulates that the price of a stock reflects all relevant available information. Data were collected for historical returns of 15 individual firms and portfolios of securities based on size. Multiple regression analysis methodology was used to examine the impact of size factor on the realized rate of return of financial securities, while controlling for the impact of market rate of return in the modified 2-factor model that included mid-caps. The results of the study indicate that size is a statistically significant factor in a 2-factor model that included mid-caps. The positive social impact of this study is that it could provide greater confidence in financial markets by providing a fair and equitable means of investment and flow of capital for a robust economy.
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Jiao, Wenting. "Exploring Risk Factors on Chinese A Share Stock Market - in the Frame of Fama - French Factor Model." Thesis, Rennes 1, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017REN1G013/document.
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Notre thèse explore les facteurs de risque et les modèles des facteurs sur le marché boursier chinois A-share. Notre étude est basée sur le contexte du modèle facteur de Fama-French (FF). Tout d'abord, au chapitre 1, nous réexaminons l'applicabilité du Modèle Fama-French à Trois Facteurs (FF3F) et du dernier Modèle Fama-French à Cinq Facteurs (FF5F), compte tenu de plusieurs caractéristiques spéciales du marché boursier chinois. Les résultats empiriques montrent que le Modèle FF3F peut expliquer la majorité des variations de séries chronologiques des rentabilités des actions chinoises A-share. Au cours de la période d'échantillonnage, le marché bêta et le facteur SMB sont des déterminants importants pour expliquer la variation transversale des rentabilités des actions, cependant nous ne trouvons aucune prime de valeur. D’après la comparaison des performances des modèles FF3F et FF5F en présence de facteurs de rentabilité et d'investissement, le Modèle FF5F ne semble pas capturer plus de variations de rentabilités espérées que le modèle à trois facteurs, à l'exception des six portefeuilles pondérées en valeurs qui formés à partir de la taille et de la rentabilité opérationnelle.Dans le chapitre 2, nous examinons si les facteurs FF, SMB et HML, sont des proxys d'innovations de variables d'état sélectionnées (rendement de dividende agrégée, taux de T-bonds en un mois, l’écart de terme et l’écart de défaut) qui décrivent, sur la période recherche, les opportunités futures d'investissement sur le marché boursier chinois A-share. Les régressions chronologiques et les régressions des séries transversales sont réalisées sur cinq modèles comparatifs en utilisant l'approche à deux étapes Fama-MacBeth. Les facteurs FF ne perdent pas leur pouvoir explicatif, avec ou sans la présence des innovations des quatre variables d’états sélectionnées, à la fois dans les examens de séries chronologiques et les examens transversaux. Nous trouvons que l'information contenue dans l'innovation de rendements de dividende agrégés semble totalement capturée par la combinaison du marché bêta et du facteur de taille. Les facteurs FF ont pu jouer un rôle limité de capturer d'opportunités d'investissement alternatives représentées par les innovations des quatre variables d'état sélectionnées.Dans le chapitre 3, nous étudions si les facteurs FF sont des proxys de facteurs de risque de détresse et si différentes méthodes de construction des facteurs entraînent des résultats différents. Les résultats empiriques suggèrent qu'il n'y a pas de preuve significative que les facteurs FF représentent un risque de détresse sur le marché boursier chinois A-share. En comparant les résultats des régressions des séries chronologiques à partir de deux méthodes différentes, la performance du facteur de risque de détresse basé sur le DLI semble légèrement meilleure que celui basé sur le O-score. Cependant, le facteur de risque de détresse n'est pas un déterminant important des rentabilités transversales moyennes, et les facteurs FF ne peuvent pas représenter le facteur de risque de détresse dans la section transversale du marché boursier chinois A-shareThis dissertation is to explore the risk factors and factor models on Chinese A-share stock market based on the context of Fama-French (FF) factor model. First of all, chapter 1 re-examines the applicability of Fama-French Three-Factor (FF3F) Model and the latest Fama-French Five-Factor (FF5F) Model considering several special features of Chinese stock market. FF3F Model can explain a majority of time-series variation of the Chinese A-share stock returns. The market beta and SMB are important determinants in explaining the cross-sectional variation in the average stock returns over the sample period; however, we find no value premium. Comparing the performance of both FF3F Model and FF5F Model on Chinese A-share stock market, in the presence of profitability and investment factors, FF5F Model seems not capture more variations of expected stock returns than the three-factor model except the six value-weighted portfolios formed on size and operating profitability.Chapter 2 examines whether FF factors SMB and HML proxy for the innovations of selected state variables (aggregate dividend yield, one-month T-bill rate, term spread and default spread) that describe future investment opportunities on Chinese A-share stock market during the research period. Both time-series and cross-sectional regressions are performed on five comparative models using Fama-MacBeth two-stage approach. FF factors don’t lose their explanatory power with or without the presence of the innovations of selected four state variables in both the time-series and cross-sectional examinations. We find that the information contained in innovation of aggregate dividend yields seems totally captured by the combination of market beta and size factor. FF factors might have played a limited role in capturing alternative investment opportunities proxied by innovations of the selected four state variables.Chapter 3 investigates whether FF factors proxy for distress risk factor and whether different methods of constructing factors result in the different outcomes. The empirical results suggest that there is no significant evidence that FF factors are proxying for distress risk on Chinese A-share stock market. Comparing the time-series regression results by using two different methods, the distress risk factor constructed based on DLI seems to perform slightly better than that constructed based on O-score in capturing time-series average returns. However, the distress risk factor is not an important determinant of cross-sectional average returns, and FF factors cannot proxy as distress risk factor in the cross-section on Chinese A-share stock market
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CONFESSOR, Kliver Lamarthine Alves. "Payout incremental e o modelo de três fatores de Fama e French: um estudo das empresas brasileiras." Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, 2016. https://repositorio.ufpe.br/handle/123456789/18580.
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Este estudo tem o objetivo de analisar se a inclusão do fator Payout no modelo de três fatores de Fama e French (1993) é relevante para explicação do retorno das empresas cotadas na BM&FBOVESPA entre o período de 2004 e 2014. O Payout avalia o nível de pagamento de dividendos. O prêmio pelo fator Payout é obtido pela diferença dos retornos entre as empresas que pagaram Payout Incremental – percentual de dividendos maior do que versa a legislação – e o retorno daquelas empresas que não pagaram dividendos. O método utilizado nesse trabalho baseia-se no modelo de Fama e French (1993), onde o fator Payout foi adicionado aos fatores prêmio pelo risco de mercado (RM-RF), prêmio pelo fator tamanho (SMB) e prêmio pelo fator book-to-market (HML) criando um novo modelo de 4 fatores. O poder explicativo desse modelo foi testado em face do retorno de 12 carteiras criadas a partir da ortogonalização dos desses fatores. Os resultados indicam que o fator Payout é significativo no modelo e que este fator geralmente possui uma relação negativa com o retorno das carteiras. O modelo consegue explicar melhor o retorno de sete dentre as doze carteiras estudadas, dessas destacam-se as carteiras de pequenas, de alto valor e que pagaram dividendos incrementais, pequenas, de baixo valor e que pagaram dividendos incrementais, pequenas, de baixo valor e que não pagaram dividendos, com um poder explicativo de mais de 70%. Para as carteiras grande, de alto valor e que não pagaram dividendos, grande, de baixo valor e que não pagaram dividendos, pequenas, de baixo valor e que pagaram dividendos mínimo, pequenas, de alto valor e que não pagaram dividendos, o modelo explica o retorno em mais de 50% com as variáveis apresentadas. A variável Payout não foi significativa apenas para a carteira pequena, de baixo valor e que pagaram dividendos. Portanto, a inclusão do fator Payout ao modelo de Fama e French (1993) possui relevância para os estudos de avaliação de portfólios. Este estudo contribui para as discussões e aprimoramento dos modelos de precificação de ativos no mercado brasileiro.
This study aims to analyze whether the inclusion of the Payout factor on the three factors of Fama and French (1993) is relevant to an explanation of the return of the companies listed on the BM&FBOVESPA between 2004 and 2014. The Payout evaluates the level of payment of dividends. The premium of the Payout’s factor is obtained by the difference of returns among the companies that paid the dividend percentage – Incremental Payout higher than what legislation suggests – and the return of the companies that did not pay dividends. The method used in this paper is based on Fame and French (1993) model’s, which the Payout factor was added to by the market risk premium (RM-RF), an award by the factor (SMB) size and prize for the book-to-market factor (HML) creating a new model of 4 factors. The explanatory power of this model was tested in the face of the return of 12 portfolios created by orthogonalizing these factors. The results indicate that the Payout factor is significant in the model and that this factor generally has a negative relationship with the return of portfolios. The model can explain better the return of seven from twelve portfolios studied. From these portfolios stands out portfolios with little value, high value and that paid dividends, small, low-value and that paid dividends, small, low-value and that did not pay dividends, with an explanatory power of over 70%. For great portfolios, high value and that did not pay dividends, large, low-value and that did not pay dividends, small, low-value and that paid minimum dividends, small, high value and that did not pay dividends, the model explains the return in more than 50% with the variables presented. The variable Payout was not significant for small, low portfolio value and that paid dividends. Therefore, the inclusion of the Payout factor model of Fame and French (1993) has relevance to portfolio assessment studies. This study contributes to the discussion and improvement of asset pricing models in the Brazilian market.
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Xu, Chenghao. "Portfolio Optimization, CAPM & Factor Modeling Project Report." Digital WPI, 2012. https://digitalcommons.wpi.edu/etd-theses/243.
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In this Portfolio Optimization Project, we used Markowitz¡¯s modern portfolio theory for portfolio optimization. We selected fifteen stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and gathered these stocks¡¯ historical data from Yahoo Finance [1]. Then we used Markowitz¡¯s theory to analyze this data in order to obtain the optimal weights of our initial portfolio. To maintain our investment in a current tangency portfolio, we recalculated the optimal weights and rebalanced the positions every week. In the CAPM project, we used the security characteristic line to calculate the stocks¡¯ daily returns. We also computed the risk of each asset, portfolio beta, and portfolio epsilons. In the Factor Modeling project, we computed estimates of each asset¡¯s expected returns and return variances of fifteen stocks for each of our factor models. Also we computed estimates of the covariances among our asset returns. In order to find which model performs best, we compared each portfolio¡¯s actual return with its corresponding estimated portfolio return.
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Dong, Yijun. "Portfolio Optimization, CAPM & Factor Modeling Project Report." Digital WPI, 2012. https://digitalcommons.wpi.edu/etd-theses/244.
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In this Portfolio Optimization Project, we used Markowitz¡¯s modern portfolio theory for portfolio optimization. We selected fifteen stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange and gathered these stocks¡¯ historical data from Yahoo Finance [1]. Then we used Markowitz¡¯s theory to analyze this data in order to obtain the optimal weights of our initial portfolio. To maintain our investment in a current tangency portfolio, we recalculated the optimal weights and rebalanced the positions every week. In the CAPM project, we used the security characteristic line to calculate the stocks¡¯ daily returns. We also computed the risk of each asset, portfolio beta, and portfolio epsilons. In the Factor Modeling project, we computed estimates of each asset¡¯s expected returns and return variances of fifteen stocks for each of our factor models. Also we computed estimates of the covariances among our asset returns. In order to find which model performs best, we compared each portfolio¡¯s actual return with its corresponding estimated portfolio return.
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Åberg, Andreas, and Henrik Peltomaa. "Överreaktioner på Stockholmsbörsen?" Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Företagsekonomiska institutionen, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-397863.
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I denna uppsats kommer vi att undersöka om det förekom överreaktioner på Stockholmsbörsen mellan åren 2002 och 2016. Överreaktioner undersöks genom att bilda vinnar- och förlorarportföljer baserat på tidigare månatliga avvikelseavkastningar. Vi ställer en hypotes om att förlorarportföljer kommer att prestera bättre än vinnarportföljer efter portföljformering. Portföljerna utvärderas under ett-, två- och treårsperioder för att undersöka om det förekommer reversals som en investerare skulle kunna utnyttja genom contrarianstrategin. Vår uppsats identifierar kortsiktiga reversals direkt efter portföljformering, men på lång sikt tenderar investerare att erhålla vinst genom att följa en positiv marknadstrenden. Regressionsanalyser med CAPM och Fama-French trefaktormodell genomförs för att få en bättre förståelse av orsakerna som ligger bakom avkastningar i vinnar- och förlorarportföljer. Vi föreslår att reversals inte skapar möjligheter för investerare att nå positivt statistiskt signifikant alfa på Stockholmsbörsen. Möjliga vinster genom contrarianstrategin drivs av faktorer som företagsstorlek och –värde snarare än att investerare överreagerar på marknaden.In this study we will examine if overreactions occurred on the Stockholm Stock Exchange during period 2002-2016. Winner- and loser portfolios were formed based on past monthly returns to see if investors overreact and by doing that cause reversal effects later on. Our study discovers short-term reversals, but in the long run investors benefit by following the overall trend on the stock market. Expanding our study to the Fama-French three-factor model we suggest that reversals in stock prices does not enable investors to gain statistically significant positive alphas on the Stockholm Stock Exchange. On the contrary, returns are driven by the factors of firm size and -value rather than behavioral biases of investors.
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Hammarfrid, Peter, and Tom Henningsson. "Multifaktormodeller på den svenska marknaden - En studie av OMX Stockholm mellan 1996 och 2014." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Nationalekonomi, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-121523.
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Bakgrund:CAPM räcker i flera tillfällen inte till för att estimera framtida avkastning. Vissa av prisavvikelsernafrån CAPM är väldokumenterade och har bestått över tid, vilket har lett till uppkomsten avkorrigerande faktorer. En modell som använder sig av två sådana korrigerande faktorer är Fama ochFrenchs tre-faktormodell. Den har testats flertalet gånger på den svenska marknaden där den visat gehögre förklaringsgrader än CAPM. År 2012 samt år 2014 presenterades två nya multifaktormodeller,som genom test på börsmarknaden i USA lyckats fånga upp prisavvikelser bättre än trefaktormodellen.Syfte:Denna studie ämnar undersöka om Fama och Frenchs fem-faktormodell samt Hue, Xue, Zhang´s Qfaktormodelltillför förklaringsvärde för Stockholmsbörsens avkastning i jämförelse med Fama-Frenchs trefaktormodell. Studien analyserar även modellernas konjunkturkänslighet samt faktorernasbetydelse.Metod:Forskningsprocessen är av deduktiv karaktär. Befintliga teorier i form av multifaktormodeller förprissättning av aktier testas med hjälp av empiriska observationer från den svenska marknaden.Studien tillämpar ett kvantitativt tillvägagångssätt och ekonometriska verktyg används för attsäkerställa statistisk signifikans.Resultat:Studien visar att Q-faktormodellen inte tillför förklaringsvärde jämfört med FF3M. FF5M ger resultatsom marginellt överträffar FF3M gällande dess förklaringsgrad. Anledningen till att FF5M presterarbättre bör rimligen ligga i faktorn HML. Resultaten visar också att modellerna är instabila i kortatidsperioder men tenderar ge bättre prediktioner i lågkonjunktur relativt till högkonjunktur.Background:CAPM isn’t in some cases sufficient for explaining expected stock return. Some of CAPM´smispricing errors are well documented and time persistent which has led rise to the usage of correctivefactors. One model that make use of two such corrective factors are the Fama and French three factormodel. It´s been comprehensively tested on the Swedish market where it has shown to achieve higherexplanatory power then the CAPM. In the year of 2012 and 2014 two new Asset Pricing Models wereintroduced, which on the US stock market better captured many of the best known anomalies.Aim:The aim of the study is to test if the Fama and French five factor model as well as the Q-factor model,could contribute to increased explanatory power beyond the three factor model. The study also analyzethe models cyclical sensitivity as well as the individual factor significance.MethodologyThe knowledge building process takes a deductive approach. Existing theories in the form of assetpricing models are tested based on empirical observations in the Swedish market. The research take aquantitative approach and make use of econometric tools in order to ensure statistic accuratesignificance.Result:This research shows no contribution of explanatory power for the Q-factor model, beyond thatachieved from the Fama and French three factor model. The five factor model achieve marginallyhigher explanatory power compared to the tree factor model. The most likely reason why FF5Machieve better results than the Q-factor model is believed to lie in the usage of the factor HML. Theresults also shows that all of the tested models are very instable when used in a short time perspective.Although there are some clear indication on increasing explanatory power in recession compared to inan ongoing bull market.
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Dänhardt, Alexander, and David Gerby. "Nyemissioner i Sverige : Hur valet av motiv och emissionstyp påverkar aktieprestation och bolagsvärde." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Företagsekonomiska institutionen, 2019. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-384231.
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Denna studie undersöker huruvida nyemissioners bakomliggande motiv påverkar hur det emitterande företaget värderas efter tillkännagivandet. Fenomenet undersöks på den svenska marknaden, då majoriteten av tidigare forskning bedrivits på utländska handelsplatser. Effekten av olika motiv analyseras för ett urval bestående av 203 observationer under en 14-årsperiod, mellan år 2005-2018, där samtliga nyemissioner genomförts på Nasdaq OMX Stockholm. Studien omfattar både riktade och företrädesmissioner. Avvikande avkastning beräknas på kort och lång sikt i samband med nyemissionernas tillkännagivande med hjälp av tre olika metoder (CAR, BHAR samt FF3M). Således mäts både den kortsiktiga annonseringseffekten såväl som företagets långsiktiga prestation mot index (OMXSPIoch SIXRX). Vidare används även multipel regressionsanalys för att undersöka om samband går att återfinna mellan motiven och avvikande avkastning. Studien finner signifikanta bevis för att underprestation i regel följer nyemissioners tillkännagivande. Negativt avvikande avkastning återfinns i de fall motivet uppges vara antingen rekapitalisation eller generella ändamål. Däremot förekommer ett positivt samband mellan avvikande avkastning och motivet investeringar, vilket indikerar på att dessa företag snarare överpresterar marknaden. Således argumenterar studien för att nyemissioners motiv har betydelse för hur företaget presterar, både på kort och lång sikt, vilket indirekt påverkar företagets värdering.The purpose of this thesis was to examine if the stated motive for a seasoned equity offering (SEO) affects company valuation, post-SEO. This was accomplished by calculating abnormal returns for a sample containing 203 SEOs over a 14 year period between 2005 and 2018. All companies being listed on Nasdaq OMX Stockholm during the time of their respective equity offering. By providing three different measurements for abnormal return (CAR, BHAR, and FF3M) as well as performing multiple regression analysis, the study finds significant evidence for general underperformance following the SEO. This is true for when the motive is stated as recapitalization or general corporate-related purposes. When the motive is stated as investment, the study finds significant evidence for post-SEO overperformance.
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Wallin, Edvin, and Timothy Chapman. "A heteroscedastic volatility model with Fama and French risk factors for portfolio returns in Japan." Thesis, Stockholms universitet, Statistiska institutionen, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-194779.
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This thesis has used the Fama and French five-factor model (FF5M) and proposed an alternative model. The proposed model is named the Fama and French five-factor heteroscedastic student's model (FF5HSM). The model utilises an ARMA model for the returns with the FF5M factors incorporated and a GARCH(1,1) model for the volatility. The FF5HSM uses returns data from the FF5M's portfolio construction for the Japanese stock market and the five risk factors. The portfolio's capture different levels of market capitalisation, and the factors capture market risk. The ARMA modelling is used to address the autocorrelation present in the data. To deal with the heteroscedasticity in daily returns of stocks, a GARCH(1,1) model has been used. The order of the GARCH-model has been concluded to be reasonable in academic literature for this type of data. Another finding in earlier research is that asset returns do not follow the assumption of normality that a regular regression model assumes. Therefore, the skewed student's t-distribution has been assumed for the error terms. The result of the data indicates that the FF5HSM has a better in-sample fit than the FF5M. The FF5HSM addresses heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation in the data and minimises them depending on the portfolio. Regardingforecasting, both the FF5HSM and the FF5M are accurate models depending on what portfolio the model is applied on.
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Bedros, Hakob. "Utilizing Wavelet to Examine the Relationship between Stock Returns and Risk Factors in CAPM and Fama-French Three-Factor Model : A study of the Swedish stock market." Thesis, Örebro universitet, Handelshögskolan vid Örebro Universitet, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:oru:diva-65017.
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Mussa, Adriano. "A adição do fator de risco momento ao modelo dos três fatores de Fama & French, aplicado ao mercado acionário brasileiro." Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo, 2007. https://tede2.pucsp.br/handle/handle/1248.
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The purpose of this dissertation is to test the four-factor pricing model on the Brazilian stock market. This model is the Fama & French´s tree-factor pricing model augmented by a momentum factor. So, the four factors are: the market, as defined by the CAPM; the firm size, defined by the market value of equity; the book-to-market ratio, the relation between a company s book and market value of equity; and the momentum, defined by the stocks past return. The employed test methodology was the same used by Fama & French (1993). The database was composed by all stocks listed on the Bolsa de Valores de São Paulo BOVESPA, from 1995 to 2007. The significance of the model and of each factor was tested observing the adjusted determination coefficient, Adj. R2, of the temporal regressions and the t-Student statistics. The results indicated that the four-factor pricing model is valid for use on the Brazilian stock market, and is superior to the tree-factor pricing model and to the CAPM. The importance of each factor changes according to the portfolio characteristics.
O objetivo da presente dissertação é investigar a validade do modelo de precificação de ativos dos quatro fatores, no mercado acionário brasileiro. Este modelo é definido pela adição do fator de risco momento ao modelo dos três fatores de Fama e French. Desta forma, os quatro fatores são: o mercado, conforme indicado pelo CAPM; o tamanho da empresa, definido pelo valor de mercado do patrimônio líquido; o índice book-to-market ou B/M, definido pela relação entre o valor contábil e de mercado do patrimônio líquido; e o momento, definido pelo desempenho acumulado dos retornos das ações. A metodologia utilizada foi a mesma adotada por Fama e French (1993). Foram usadas as ações listadas na Bolsa de Valores do Estado de São Paulo - BOVESPA, no período de 1995 a 2007. Testou-se a significância de cada fator utilizando a estatística t de Student. A validade do modelo foi testada por meio da análise dos coeficientes de determinação ajustados, Adj. R2, das regressões temporais. Os resultados verificados apresentaram evidências de que o modelo dos quatro fatores é válido para o mercado acionário brasileiro, sendo superior ao modelo dos três fatores, e também ao CAPM, na explicação das variações dos retornos das ações da amostra. A relevância de cada fator de risco variou de acordo com as características das carteiras
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Dijokas, Paulius, and Dijana Zaric. "Performance of Actively Managed Equity Mutual Funds : Empirical Evidence of the Swedish Market." Thesis, Internationella Handelshögskolan, Högskolan i Jönköping, IHH, Företagsekonomi, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-26782.
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During the last decade, investments into the Swedish mutual fund market have increased substantially. The increased popularity of actively managed Swedish equity funds among households and investment companies, correspondingly, funds need to deliver substantial results, raised the importance to evaluate these funds’ performance. This thesis adds to the scarce empirical literature on Swedish equity mutual fund performance. Employing the Fama-French three factor model, it analyzes whether actively managed Swedish equity mu- tual funds outperform the Fama-French benchmarks net- and gross of management fees. The study uses time-series data and constructs equally-weighted portfolios of the 42 Swe- dish based actively managed equity mutual funds investing in Sweden for the period 2003- 2013. The portfolios’ excess returns are calculated by estimating the Fama-French three factor model by means of ordinary least squares (OLS) regression analysis. The empirical results show that actively managed equity mutual funds over performed the Fama-French three factor benchmarks by an average annualized net- and gross excess return of 3.60 and 4.67 percent respectively. Sorting out the funds by the performance into deciles, the find- ings indicate that management fees influence the performance of the equity mutual funds in the sample of our study. The conclusion is made such that there is an indication that Swedish equity funds’ managers are able to add value above passive investing.
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Andrén, Erik, and Oskar Fors. "Actively Managed Investments : A comparison of US hedge and equity mutual funds." Thesis, Internationella Handelshögskolan, Högskolan i Jönköping, IHH, Företagsekonomi, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-35570.
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Over the past years, the total assets under management among hedge funds and equity mutual fundshave increased significantly. The question from an investor point of view iswhich investment vehicle can provide the greatest return adjusted for risk. The purpose of this study involves an analysis on the historical net asset values todetermine and evaluate what one can except from actively managed hedge andequity mutual funds. It supports the determination of the most profitable asset, adjusted for risk, as part of a diversified portfolio. The performance is measured net of fees and costs with the inclusion of potential performance fees individual hedge funds may apply. Hedge funds practice different investment approaches depending on what strategy is applied and hence, return levels can vary dramatically. The study is designed to answer questions by comparing net returns and risk-adjusted returns for respective investments and the different hedge fund strategies. With a deductive research approach, the analysis is conducted by applying existing models and theories as the Fama-French three-factor model through time-series regressions measuring excess returns (alpha), risk-adjusted performance measures as Sharpe ratio, M-squared and the Sortino ratio. The results show that hedge funds outperform equity mutual funds in all examined aspects and produce positive monthly net alphas,on average. Equity mutual funds are unable to provide investors with positive excess returns and subsequently fail the purpose of an actively managed fund by providing returns lower than the return of the market. The results are increasingly strengthened with both time-series regressions and performance measures showing homogenous results and reaching the equal conclusions. From the conclusions that hedge funds provide the most profitable investment compared to equity mutual funds, the hedge fund strategy CTA/managed futures strategies perform best in both net and risk-adjusted terms.
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Lindqvist, Niklas, and Sebastian Löthner. "Femte faktorn gillt? : En kvantitativ studie av Fama och Frenchs femfaktormodell på den svenska aktiemarknaden." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Företagsekonomi, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-45746.
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Syfte: Syftet är att testa Fama och Frenchs femfaktormodell på den svenska aktiemarknaden. Detta genom att undersöka huruvida modellen kan statistiskt förklara portföljers genomsnittliga avkastning samt ifall specifika faktorer har statistisk signifikans. Metod: En kvantitativ studie med ett deduktivt förhållningssätt. Undersökningen utför tester på den svenska aktiemarknaden mellan 2015-01-01 och 2019-12-31 genom en regressionsanalys. Upptäckter: Fama och Frenchs femfaktormodell förkastas som helhet men det påvisas däremot att HML är statistisk signifikant inom sex av sex storlekssorterade portföljer, följt av SMB med fyra av sex. Fama och Frenchs femfaktormodellen har svårigheter att förklara avkastningen för mindre företag sorterade utifrån lönsamhet och book-to-market tal. Forskningsimplikationer: Undersöker ett forskningsämne som eftersträvar studier och tester på ett flertal varierande marknader för att förklara aktiers avkastningsmönster. Orginalitet och värde: Studien särskiljer sig på grund av avsaknaden av forskning på den svenska aktiemarknaden. Därtill bidrar studien till ett undersökningsområde för små öppna ekonomier som den svenska marknaden grundas i.Purpose: The purpose is to test Fama and French's five-factor model in the Swedish stock market. This is done by examining whether the model can explain portfolios' average return and whether specific factors have statistical significance. Method: A quantitative study with a deductive approach. The survey performs tests on the Swedish stock market between 2015-01-01 and 2019-12-31 through a regression analysis. Findings: Fama and French's five-factor model is rejected as a whole, but it is shown that HML is statistically significant in every size-sorted portfolio, followed by SMB with statistical significance in four out of six portfolios. Fama and French's five-factor model have difficulty explaining the returns for smaller companies sorted on profitability and book-to-market ratio. Research implications: Investigates a research topic that strives for an increased number of studies and tests in different markets to explain stock return patterns. Originality and value: The study differs due to the lack of research on the Swedish stock market. In addition, the study contributes to a study area for small open economies in which the Swedish market is based.
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Jomer, Emelie. "Performance of UK Pension Funds : Luck or Skill?" Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Nationalekonomiska institutionen, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-205730.
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Pension funds play a large role in the UK pension system since the returns of the funds determine how large the total pension will be. The future retirees can choose between active and passive fund management where the active management often is more expensive. In this study 102 actively managed UK equity pension funds are analyzed in order to see if managers have sufficient skill to generate risk adjusted return to cover the cost imposed on the investors. The result implies that the active pension funds in aggregate, before expenses, hold a portfolio that imitates market returns during 2000 to 2012. Bootstrap simulations suggest that only eight funds out of the sample of 102 have skilled managers and six of these managers are skilled enough to produce risk adjusted excess return large enough to cover the expenses imposed on the investor.
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Djerf, Martin, and August Lundgren. "Size and Seasonality : Using Enterprise Value and the January effect to Investigate the Size effect on the Swedish stock market 2000-2019." Thesis, Jönköping University, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-49432.
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In 1981, Banz discovered evidence suggesting that small-cap firms outperform large-cap firms when considering risk-adjusted returns. Banz (1981), called this the “size effect” and raised concerns regarding the ability of current asset pricing models to set accurate prices for assets. This resulted in new models being developed, such as the Fama and French three-factor model which takes the size of a company into consideration (Fama & French, 1992). However, since the discovering of the size effect, several researchers have started to question its existence. (Asgharian & Hansson, 2008) Moreover, short after Banz findings, a study by Keim (1983) introduced results that complements the size effect. Keims study suggests that the size effect is present due to the fact that small-cap firms outperform large- cap firms during the month of January. This seasonal anomaly is called the “January effect” and could possibly be the reason for the existence of the size effect. The purpose of this study is to investigate if there is a size effect and/or a January effect present on the Swedish stock market (OMX) when using Enterprise Value as the measure for size. Enterprise Value has been chosen in order to consider the full capital structure of companies, hence, not solely the equity value. In order to answer these research questions, a quantitative study has been conducted on companies being listen on the OMX during the time period 2000-2019. The findings of the research are that there is no size effect present on the OMX. Furthermore, the research has found that there is a January effect present on the OMX. This paper suggests that the January effect might have been the reason for the presence of the size effect in history, but as of now, the size effect has diminished but the January effect still remains.
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Hukka, Sonja, and Samri Said. "Hållbara trender - presterande fonder? : En kvantitativ studie om hur ESG påverkar Sverigefonders prestation." Thesis, Södertörns högskola, Företagsekonomi, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:sh:diva-45770.
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Sustainability has become a major societal trend and interest in sustainable investments has increased among investors. The purpose of this study is to investigate how sustainability affects Swedish funds' returns and risk. Since research on the impact of sustainability on funds focuses mostly on investments outside Sweden, this study has limited itself to Swedish funds to fill the gap in research. The study analyzes 67 Swedish funds during 2015-2019 using various models such as CAPM, Fama-French three-factor model and Sharpe ratio. Furthermore, the funds' sustainability is measured using Morningstar's sustainability rating. Results show no signs of linear regression between sustainability and results from different models and the results of the study are not statistically significant. Thus, the study concludes that it is not sustainability that affects risk and return among the Swedish funds, but there may be other factors that have not been taken into account in this study. However, previous research shows that sustainable funds perform better and are more stable during times of crisis. This study has not examined the Swedish funds during times of crisis, but this may be an interesting topic for future research.Hållbarhet har blivit en stor samhällstrend och intresset för hållbara investeringar har ökat bland investerare. Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka hur hållbarhet påverkar Sverigefonders avkastning och risk. Eftersom forskning kring hållbarhetens påverkan på fonder fokuserar mestadels på investeringar utanför Sverige har denna studie avgränsat sig till Sverigefonder för att fylla luckan i forskningen. Studien analyserar 67 Sverigefonder under 2015-2019 med hjälp av olika modeller såsom CAPM, Fama-French trefaktormodell och Sharpekvot. Vidare mäts fondernas hållbarhet med hjälp av Morningstar hållbarhetsbetyg. Resultat visar inga tecken på linjär regression mellan hållbarhet och resultat från olika modeller samt studiens resultat är inte statistiskt signifikanta. Därmed är studiens slutsats att det inte är hållbarhet som påverkar på risk och avkastning bland Sverigefonderna utan det kan vara andra faktorer som inte tagits hänsyn till i denna studie. Däremot visar tidigare forskning att hållbara fonder presterar bättre och är mer stabila under kristider. Denna studie har inte undersökt Sverigefonderna under kristider men detta kan vara ett intressant ämne för framtida forskning.
27
Jämtander, Jämtander. "Models explaining the average return on the Stockholm Stock Exchange." Thesis, Högskolan i Jönköping, Internationella Handelshögskolan, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-40360.
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Using three different models, we examine the determinants of average stock returns on the Stockholm Stock Exchange during 2012-2016. By using time-series data, we find that a Fama-French three-factor model (directed at capturing size and book-to-market ratio) functions quite well in the Swedish stock market and is able to explain the variation in returns better than the traditional CAPM. Additionally, we investigated if the addition of a Price/Earning variable to the Fama-French model would increase the explanatory power of the expected returns of the different dependent variables portfolios. We conclude that the P/E ratio does not influence the expected returns in the sample we used.
28
Zhao, Yunfeng. "Risk Analysis for Corporate Bond Portfolios." Digital WPI, 2013. https://digitalcommons.wpi.edu/etd-theses/654.
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This project focuses on risk analysis of corporate bond portfolios. We separate the total risk of the portfolio into three parts, which are market risk, credit risk and liquidity risk. The market risk component is quantified by value-at-risk (VaR) determined by change in yield to maturity of the bond portfolio. For the credit risk component, we calculate default probabilities and losses in the event of default and then compute credit VaR. Next, we define a factor called basis which is the difference between the Credit Default Swap (CDS) spread and its corresponding corporate bond yield spread (z-spread or OAS). We quantify the liquidity risk by using the basis. In addition, we also introduce a Fama-French multi-factor model to analyze factor significance to the corporate bond portfolio.
29
Jiang, Qizhong. "Risk Analysis for Corporate Bond Portfolios." Digital WPI, 2013. https://digitalcommons.wpi.edu/etd-theses/653.
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This project focuses on risk analysis of corporate bond portfolios. We divide the total risk of the portfolio into three parts, which are market risk, credit risk and liquidity risk. The market risk component is quantified by value-at-risk (VaR) which is determined by change in yield to maturity of the bond portfolio. For the credit risk component, we calculate default probabilities and losses in the event of default and then compute credit VaR. Next, we define a factor called `basis' which is the difference between the Credit Default Swap (CDS) spread and its corresponding corporate bond yield spread (z-spread or OAS). We quantify the liquidity risk by using the basis. In addition we also introduce a Fama-French multi-factor model to analyze the factor significance to the corporate bond portfolio.
30
van, Nuenen M. R. T. M. "Controversial Industries: does it pay to ignore social norms?" Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Företagsekonomiska institutionen, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-358397.
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This paper investigates the impact of social norms on the performance and valuation of “controversial stocks”- publicly traded companies involved in the production of Adult Entertainment, Alcohol, Gambling, Nuclear Energy, Tobacco, Uranium, and Weapons. Their performance and valuation is directly compared with compare non-controversial stocks. The paper consider an international sample of 941 controversial stocks. Employing a multi-factor performance measure, seven countries provide a significant outperformance of controversial stocks across all relevant control factors. The valuation analysis, however, provide mixed results on a country level, but on the global market-to-book ratio provide a significant overvaluation of controversial stocks compared to comparable non-controversial stocks, which contradicts the prediction of an undervaluation.JEL classification:
31
Wange, Erik, and Tor Wikman. "Bära eller brista - byte av noteringslista? : Nya resultat från svenska aktiemarknaden." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Nationalekonomiska institutionen, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-150457.
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Denna eventstudie syftar till att undersöka hur ett byte av noteringslista påverkar kumulativ onormal avkastning (CAR) 1 till och med 12 månader efter genomfört byte. I studien undersöks därför utförda byten av noteringsplats på den svenska aktiemarknaden under tidsperioden 1995-2009. I studien beräknas onormal avkastning delvis med marknadsmodellen (MM) som grund, men också med Fama & French tre-faktormodell (FF) för att öka reliabiliteten. Vidare undersöks om skillnader i CAR föreligger under olika tidsintervall samt om olikheter förekommer efter att berörda företag delats in i undergrupper baserade på typ av byte, industri samt storlek. Slutligen testas utifall den eventuella kumulativa onormala avkastningen är signifikant skild från noll med student t-test samt om det föreligger skillnader i medelvärde i de olika undergrupperna. Resultatet visar att den genomsnittliga kumulativa onormala avkastningen (CAR) uppgår till – 4,57 % (MM), - 3,74 % (FF) en månad efter bytet, vilket är signifikant på 1 % - nivån. Denna negativa tendens håller i sig och efter 12 månader uppvisas CAR på – 20,20 % (MM), -16,99 % (FF) även dessa statistisk säkerställda på 1 % - nivån. Detta resultat är i linje med liknade studier på andra aktiemarknader. Vi kan alltså dra slutsatsen att detta fenomen även föreligger på den svenska aktiemarknaden samt konstatera att händelsen listbyte är något både företag och aktieägare bör beakta mer varsamt.
32
Alves, Junior Luiz Fernando Pereira. "Análise do modelo de três fatores aplicado à BM&F Bovespa." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/8604.
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Fama & French (1993) Three Factors Model is an extension of the Sharpe-Lintner & Black (1972) asset-pricing model, the CAPM. In this model, the market value and ratio price to book value of the firms are incorporated as explainable variables to the CAPM, adding to the market-risk factor β of the model. The Three Factors Model was originally developed to the American stock market and then successfully rolled-over to several different countries markets. Some studies have been done to the Brazilian case however the lack of data has compromised the results. The aim of this work is to test the Fama & French (1993) model to the Brazilian stock market using a new methodology to build the portfolios. The innovation in this work is the usage of a moving data-base that incorporates new stocks to the portfolios as they debut in the stock market and reaches the liquidity parameters for the model. In the previews works, the databases were made of fixed sets of stocks. This methodology aims to mitigate the lack of data problem in the Brazilian stock market. The period of analysis is from 2000 to 2011, and the stocks used to build the portfolio are those with reliable data and the ones that present at least one trade per 2 months. The analysis of the Three Factors Model were made using the Black, Jensen & Scholes (1972) linear regression approach, the same applied by Fama & French (1993) in their work. Sixteen portfolios were used as the dependent variables. They were built trough the crossing of 4 groups of stocks organized according to their market value (ME) and their ratio price to book value (ME/BE). Two portfolios were built as the independent variables. They are a set of stocks that mimic the market value risk factor, the SMB portfolio, and the price to book-value risk factor, the HML portfolio. The method used to estimate the parameters of the equation was the Ordinary Least Square. The results found for the Brazilian stock market were very similar to the ones found by Fama & French (1993). The first one was the same empirical contradictions of the CAPM found by Fama & French (1993) for the American market. The Betas from the CAPM had no apparent relation to the expected return of the stocks. Next, the Three Factors Model presented a higher explaining (R²) power to the portfolios returns and was statistically significant to 15 of the 16 tested portfolios. The coefficient of the regressions related to the risk factors SMB and HML presented, in the vast majority, the same signals of the ones found by Fama & French (1993). A small discrepancy was found in some HML coefficients and it was explained by the performance of the Brazilian economy and stock market in the period. At last the Three Factors Model proved itself a much better tool to evaluate the risk factors of Brazilian stocks then the CAPM.
O modelo de três fatores de Fama & French (1993) é uma extensão do modelo de precificação de ativos de Sharpe (1963), Lintner (1965) e Black (1972), o CAPM. Em Fama & French (1993), o valor de mercado e o valor contábil das empresas são adicionados como variáveis explicativas ao fator de risco de mercado β do CAPM. O objetivo deste trabalho é testar o poder explicativo do modelo de três fatores para o mercado acionário brasileiro. A inovação deste trabalho foi a utilização de um universo de ações móvel, no qual os títulos que são lançados na Bovespa no período de análise vão sendo incorporadas à base de dados conforme atingem os requisitos do modelo. Trata-se de uma abordagem inovadora, já que tradicionalmente o universo de ações que compõe a amostra é rígido do início ao fim do período de análise. Esta abordagem foi desenvolvida com o intuito de mitigar o problema de falta de dados do mercado acionário brasileiro. O período de análise foi de 2000 à 2011, e as ações utilizadas foram todas aquelas que possuíam um histórico confiável e apresentaram pelo menos um negócio à cada dois meses. A análise do Modelo de Três Fatores foi realizada utilizando a metodologia de séries temporais de Black, Jensen e Scholes (1972), da mesma forma que Fama & French (1993). Como variável dependente foram utilizadas 16 carteiras, oriundas do cruzamento das ações dividas em 4 percentis iguais pelos seus valores de mercado (ME), e 4 percentis iguais pela razão valor de mercado pelo valor contábil (ME/BE). Como variáveis independentes foram construídas duas séries de retorno que replicam os fatores de risco valor de mercado, SMB, e a razão valor de mercado pelo valor contábil, HML. Estas foram construídas pela diferença dos retornos das ações de maior ME e menor ME; e pela diferença do retorno das de maior ME/BE, pelas de menor ME/BE. O método de estimação dos coeficientes das regressões utilizado foi o dos mínimos quadrados ordinários. Os resultados do Modelo encontrados para a bolsa brasileira foram similares àqueles encontrados por Fama & French (1993). O Modelo apresentou maior poder explicativo para os retornos dos portfolios analisados que o CAPM, e mostrou-se estatisticamente significante para 15 das 16 carteiras. Os coeficientes das regressões relativos aos fatores de risco SMB e HML apresentaram, em sua maioria, os mesmo sinais que os encontrados por Fama & French (1993). Foi encontrada uma discrepância relativa ao sinal do fator HML para as carteiras de maior ME/BE, cuja explicação está atrelada ao momento da economia e mercados no período. Por fim, o Modelo e a discrepância foram reavaliados dividindo-se o período de análise em pré e pós-crise de 2008. O modelo mostrou maior poder explicativo para o período pós-crise que para o pré-crise. A mesma discrepância do sinal de HML foi encontrada no pré-crise, entretanto não foi verificada no pós-crise.
33
Aydemir, Merve. "A Test Of Multi-index Asset Pricing Models: The Us Reit Market." Thesis, METU, 2012. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12614402/index.pdf.
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This study examines the relationship between the performances of US equity REITs and the market risk premium, SMB, HML, MOM as well as an industry index and a real estate index. The statistical significance of the abnormal returns and the beta coefficients of independent variables are examined. The REITs are categorized in seven groups according to their investment areas and the analysis results are compared. Daily return indexes of US equity REITs are collected for the period between 2005 and 2011. These data are then used to estimate the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) of Sharpe (1964) and Lintner (1965), the Fama and French&rsquos 3-Factor Model (1993) and Carhart&rsquo
s 4-Factor Model (1995). These models are re-estimated by adding an industry and a real estate index. The empirical results show that these added independent variables improve the available models. Additionally, no abnormal return is detected for REITs and their returns have a positive correlation with the SMB and HML factors and a negative correlation with the MOM factor. Therefore,, the REITs are relatively small and have high book-to-market ratios. The negative MOM coefficients indicate that the losers will win and the winners will lose.
34
Yalcin, Ozge. "The Performance Evaluation And Persistence Of A Type Mutual Funds In Turkey." Thesis, METU, 2012. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12614099/index.pdf.
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Literature reveals studies on mutual fund performance analysis and persistency, with various results. Some studies support hort term performance persistence, while the rest claiming no such persistency among the portfolios. This thesis is an attempt to analyze the performances of Turkish open-end mutual funds for the period of 2003-2010 and search for persistency by extending the time period to June 2011.
For performance evaluation, single factor CAPM and ama-French&rsquos Three Factor Model are applied. Persistency analysis is done by tracking the relative fund performances on a monthly basis. The results of this study indicate that for the sample period, Turkish A Type mutual funds neither overperform nor underperform the overall market. Nearly all Jensen&rsquo
s alphas are found to be zero, statistically significant. This is also an implication that the mutual funds are earning their expected returns in an efficient mutual fund market in Turkey. The Fama-French&rsquo
s three factor model shows slightly better performance, on the other hand. The size and book to market equity factors are not found significant in general, however they are found jointly significant in all regressions. Persistency is analyzed by tracking the mutual fund erformances on monthly basis. When some mutual funds showed negative or positive performance persistency during the period individually, but the overall picture demonstrates a balanced distribution of performance groups. The number Loser-Loser performances is slightly more than the other three groups, resulting in a tendency for short term negative persistency for the sample analyzed between the period of January 2003 to June 2011.
35
Ballout, Rami, and Fredrik Nygård. "Can intangibles lead to superior returns? : Global evidence on the relationship between employee satisfaction and abnormal equity returns." Thesis, Umeå universitet, Företagsekonomi, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-73263.
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Subject background and discussion: In recent decades, issues of human rights, labor and environmental change has been hot topics world wide, which also has influenced the financial market. More and more investors use socially responsible investing (SRI) screens when constructing their portfolios. One form of SRI screen is to choose companies that have satisfied employees. Existing theory says that employee satisfaction is an intangible asset to the firm that will positively affect a firm’s performance in the future. Intangible assets are often unrecognized by the market and thereby not incorporated in the stock price. The efficient market hypothesis has been studied and debated for several decades. Proponents of the EMH argue that all available information is incorporated in the stock price, thus it is not possible to systematically beat the market. However, EMH is controversial, since research has shown different results regarding the possibility to make abnormal return from various investing strategy. Research question: Is it possible to make abnormal returns by investing in a portfolio of worldwide firms with top scores on the SRI screen employee satisfaction? Purpose: The main purpose of this study is to examine investor’s possibility to make abnormal return with controls for multiple risk factors by investing in worldwide firms with top scores in employee satisfaction. One sub-purpose is to examine how the market values intangibles depending on the degree of market efficiency. Another sub-purpose of the study is to test two different portfolio weighting methodologies, equally- and value weighted, and observe the differences between them. Theory: This study deals with the efficient market hypothesis and the concepts of SRI, employee satisfaction, intangible assets and several risk-adjusted measurements. Method: We have chosen to perform a quantitative study with a deductive approach to answer our research question. We used a sample size of 696 firms based on “Great Place to Works”- lists of companies with high employee satisfaction to construct sex portfolios with different holding periods and strategies. These portfolios have been explored and tested significantly with both equally and value weighted methods. Result/Analysis: The study finds significant evidence of an average annual abnormal return of 3,66% and 2,43% for our main portfolio over the market for equally- and value weighted, respectively, using the three-factor model. When adjusting for momentum, thus employing the four-factor model, all the predictive variables still identify strong persistence in the abnormal return, with statistical significance. Conclusion: The results show that it is possible to make abnormal returns, during the observed time period, regardless of the weighing methodology, although the equally weighted received higher abnormal returns. Thus, the market efficiency appears to be in weak form and does not fully value intangibles.
36
Watari, Yugo. "Aplicação de alocação de risco em fatores (Risk Factor Budgeting) ao mercado brasileiro de ações." reponame:Repositório Institucional do FGV, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10438/18806.
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Submitted by Yugo Watari (ywatari@gmail.com) on 2017-09-19T16:23:48Z
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We approach portfolio construction with risk based allocation, using volatility as the measure of risk, and applying to the stock markets. We start by obtaining generic risk factors based on the approach of Fama&French; and them we decompose the volatility in risk contributions of those generic risk factors. Differing from previous works, instead of allocating in indexes that represent the generic risk factors, we allocate at the asset level, in hopes that this will lead to reproducing the effects of inveting on those indexes, which brings additional complexity to the problem. This was motivated by investors not always having access to invest in theses indexes. Finally, for the purpose of illustration, we apply the metodology to the brazilian stock markets, selecting as risk factors, the five Fama&French risk factors. We obtain portfolios with the desired risk contributions, but as we look in to the weights of each risk factor, there is alocations of weights in the risk factors not related to those of Fama&French, even though the risk contributions are neutralized. We argue that these allocations are preventing from obtaining exposures to the distinct characteristics of each Fama&French risk factor.
A construção de portfólios, ou seja, a definição da composição de uma carteira de ativos, é abordada, nesse trabalho, pela ótica da alocação baseada em contribuições do risco, medida via volatilidade, aplicada a uma carteira de ações. O objetivo é a construção de portfolios, via as contribuições de riscos; para isto construímos fatores de riscos genéricos baseados na abordagem de Fama&French; na sequência aplicamos uma metodologia para distribuir a volatilidade como contribuições de risco destes fatores genéricos. Diferentemente de outros trabalhos, ao invés de alocar em índices que representem estes fatores de riscos genéricos, alocamos diretamente nos ativos na expectativa de conseguirmos reproduzir o efeito de investir nestes índices, o que traz uma complexidade adicional. Esta abordagem foi motivada por nem sempre termos acesso à investir nesses índices. Finalmente, a título de ilustração, a metodologia foi aplicada ao mercado brasileiro de ações, em particular utilizando os fatores do modelo Fama&French de 5 fatores. Obtivemos portfolios com as contribuições de riscos desejadas em relação aos fatores de Fama&French, mas ao se analisar a alocação dos pesos dos fatores de riscos sobre os portfolios obtidos, verificamos que são alocados pesos a fatores que não estão relacionados aos de Fama&French, apesar das contribuições de risco destas estarem neutralizadas. E por fim argumentamos que estas alocações evitam a captura das características distintas de cada fator que gostaríamos de reproduzir.
37
Andersson, Pontus, and John Eskilson. "Hållbara fonders avkastning : En kvantitativ studie om en jämförelse av riskjusterad avkastning för svenska fonder baserat på ESG-score." Thesis, Linköpings universitet, Institutionen för ekonomisk och industriell utveckling, 2021. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:liu:diva-177754.
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Background: The Swedish fund savings have developed strongly over the past two decades. Together with this development, the knowledge that the earth's population is facing an extensive climate challenge has also increased. For many people today, living sustainably has become a central aspect of everyday life, and when it comes to investing their savings, the majority of Sweden's fund savers state that sustainability is something that is taken into account when choosing an investment. Investments in funds that based on measuring tools, show a high degree of sustainability have thus increased. This raises the question of whether these sustainable funds can generate a higher alpha and thus a better risk-adjusted return than the less sustainable alternatives available on the market. Previous studies have shown differences of opinion, which means that it is relevant to examine how these different types of funds perform against each other in the Swedish market. Purpose: The aim of this study is to analyze whether fund savers that are investing in sustainable funds can generate a higher alpha and thereby a better risk adjusted return than fund savers that invests in less sustainable alternatives. Methodology: The study was conducted with a quantitative method and a deductive approach. Sustainability ratings have been collected for 253 funds from a measuring institute. For these 253 funds, data in the form of net asset value have been collected between the period 2016 - 2020 monthly. These funds have then been evaluated based on risk-adjusted returns where regression analysis has been the groundwork for finding answers to whether alpha has been achieved compared to the market or not. Results obtained have then been statistically examined through various tests. Conclusion: After completed study, there were no signs that studied sustainable funds have given rise to a better risk-adjusted return than the less sustainable alternatives available on the market. Of the 253 funds included in the study, only five funds showed a risk-adjusted return statistically different from zero, where three had a negative return and two a positive return. When the 253 funds were divided into four different quartiles based on sustainability ratings, it appeared that the funds with a positive risk-adjusted return were placed in quartile four, which was the one with the highest sustainability rating. However, this may be based on chance and a result of two in a sample of 253 gives clear indications that efficiency prevails in the market.
38
Vosilov, Rustam, and Nicklas Bergström. "Cross-Section of Stock Returns: : Conditional vs. Unconditional and Single Factor vs. Multifactor Models." Thesis, Umeå University, Umeå School of Business, 2010. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:umu:diva-34898.
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The cross-sectional variation of stock returns used to be described by the Capital Asset Pricing Model until the early 90‟s. Anomalies, such as, book-to-market effect and small firm effect undermined CAPM‟s ability to explain stock returns and Fama & French (1992) have shown that simple firm attributes, like, firm size and book-to-market value can explain the returns far better than Beta. Following Fama & French many other researchers examine the explanatory powers of CAPM and other asset pricing models. However, most of those studies use US data. There are some researches done in different countries than US, however more out-of-sample studies need to be conducted.
To our knowledge there are very few studies using the Swedish data and this thesis contributes to that small pool of studies. Moreover, the studies testing the CAPM use the unconditional version of the model. There are some papers suggesting the use of a conditional CAPM that would exhibit better explanatory powers than the unconditional CAPM. Different ways of conditioning the CAPM have been proposed, but one that we think is the least complex and possible to make use of in the business world is the dual-beta model. This conditional CAPM assumes a different relationship between beta and stock returns during the up markets and down markets. Furthermore, the model has not thoroughly been tested outside the US. Our study is the first to use the dual-beta model in Sweden. In addition, the momentum effect has lately been given some attention and Fama & French‟s (1993) three factor model has not been able to explain the abnormal returns related to that anomaly. We test the Fama & French three factor model, CAPM and Carhart‟s four factor model‟s explanatory abilities of the momentum effect using Swedish stock returns. Ultimately, our aim is to find the best model that describes stock return cross-section on the Stockholm Stock Exchange.
We use returns of all the non-financial firms listed on Stockholm Stock Exchange between September, 1997 and April, 2010. The number of companies included in our time sample is 366. The results of our tests indicate that the small firm effect, book-to-market effect and the momentum effect are not present on the Stockholm Stock Exchange. Consequently, the CAPM emerges as the one model that explains stock return cross-section better than the other models suggesting that Beta is still a proper measure of risk. Furthermore, the conditional version of CAPM describes the stock return variation far better than the unconditional CAPM. This implies using different Betas to estimate risk during up market conditions and down market conditions.
39
Loutia, Amine. "La financiarisation des matières premières et des marchandises : formation des prix et co-mouvements." Thesis, Paris 1, 2020. http://www.theses.fr/2020PA01E045.
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L'objet de cette thèse est d'examiner les effets de la financiarisation sur les marchés des matières premières et des marchandises. En particulier, nous nous intéressons à ses deux leviers d'action ; le levier informationnel et le levier des corrélations entre ces marchés. Cette thèse est composée de trois chapitres qui peuvent être lus indépendamment. Dans le premier chapitre, nous étudions l'impact informationnel des annonces de production de l'OPEP sur le prix du pétrole entre 1991 et 2015. Dans notre analyse, nous employons l'étude des événements en y associant, à la différence de la littérature pertinente, un modèle EGARCH (Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic) pour prendre en compte le caractère volatil du prix de pétrole. De plus, nous utilisons deux indices de prix de pétrole (Le Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) et le BRENT). Nos résultats donnent un aperçu nouveau sur le rôle de )'OPEP. En particulier, ce rôle dépend du niveau de prix de pétrole et est plus prononc1 quand ce dernier est faible. En outre, les annonces de maintien et de coupure de la production sont les plus influentes dans cet ordre. Enfin, les effets de ces annonces sont différents selon l'indice utilisé. Le deuxième chapitre est une suite du premier chapitre dans la mesure où nous y analysons les effets des mêmes annonces de l'OPEP avec l'association de l'étude des événements et un modèle EGARCH. Cependant, ce chapitre s'en distingue en ce qu'il porte sur l'analyse de l'effet des mêmes annonces sur le marché action et utilise n modèle Fama French à 3 facteurs au lieu du modèle de marché. Par ailleurs, cette étude se distingue aussi par son ampleur puisqu'elle englobe tous les secteurs économiques. Les résultats de ce chapitre apportent un éclairage nouveau sur l'influence de l'OPEP sur ces marchés. Cette dernière semble plus prononcée en périod1 de fortes fluctuations des prix de pétrole avec des différences inhérentes à chaque industrie. En outre, les annonces d'augmentation et de coupure de production sont les plus influentes. Le dernier chapitre est consacré à l'analyse des effets de la financiarisation et leur pérennité sur la structure de dépendance des marchés des matières premières et des marchandises. Ce chapitre complète les deux derniers en ce qu'il permet d'explorer le deuxième levier d'action de la financiarisation; le levier des corrélations entre les marchés des matières premières et des marchandises. Dans cette étude, nous utilisons le modèle ADCC (Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlations) à des fins de modélisation des corrélations avec un modèle à IV changements de régime markovien pour mettre en évidence les cycles d'évolutions de ces corrélations. Nos résultats jettent une lumière nouvelle sur les liens entre ces marchés. Plus précisément, ils indiquent une plus grande intégration de ces marchés et une altération des processus de découverte de prixThe purpose of this doctoral thesis is to examine the commodity's financialization impact on the commodity markets. ln particular, we focus on its two main consequences; namely the informational role and the correlation between the commodities markets. This thesis consists of three chapters that can be read independently. ln the first chapter, we examine the OPEC's production announcements' informational impact on crude oil's price between 1991 and 2015. ln this analysis, we employ the event study methodology in association with an EGARCH (Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic) model, unlike the relevant literature, to take into consideration the volatile nature of crude oil prices. ln addition, we use two different crude oil price benchmarks (The Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) and the BRENT). Our methodology provides us with some new results. Especially, OPEC's role depends on the crude oil's price level and is more pronounced when this level is low. Moreover, the maintain and the cut production announcements are the most influential. However, their effect is different depending on the benchmark used. The second chapter is very similar to the previous chapter as it employs the same methodology to analyze the effects of OPEC' s announcements. Nevertheless, in sharp contrast to the previous chapter and unlike the existing literature, this chapter examines OPEC's production decisions impact on stocks prices including ail the economic sectors by appropriately using a 3-factor Fama French model. Our results indicate that OPECs announcements effect is higher during oil price's turbulent times and depends on industries specific characteristics. Furthermore, the increase and cut production announcements are the most significant respectively. The last chapter is dedicated to the second aspect of the financialization phenomenon examined in this thesis that is the commodities dependence structure. In this study, we employ the ADCC (Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlations) to mode! the correlations in association with a Markovian changing regimes model to highlight the correlations cycles evolution over time. Our results show a greater integration of the commodities markets and an alteration of the price discovery process
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Iordanova, Tzveta. "Evaluation of single and three factor CAPM based on Monte Carlo Simulation." Thesis, University of Skövde, School of Technology and Society, 2007. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:his:diva-104.
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The aim of this master thesis was to examine whether the noticed effect of Black Monday October 1987 on stock market volatility has also influenced the predictive power of the single factor CAPM and the Fama French three factor CAPM, in order to conclude whether the models are less effective after the stock market crash. I have used an OLS regression analysis and a Monte Carlo Simulation technique. I have applied these techniques on 12 industry portfolios with US data to draw a conclusion whether the predictability of the single and three factor model has changed after October 1987. My research confirms that the single factor CAPM performs better before October 1987 and also found evidences that support the same hypothesis of Black Monday effect on the predictive power of the Fama French three factor model.
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Yang, Tsung-yu, and 楊宗育. "A Study of Fama and French Three Factor Model-Quantile Regression." Thesis, 2007. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/75802390184867330124.
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碩士義守大學
財務金融學系碩士班
95
This thesis investigated the quantile regression model of the weight to probe into Fama and French (1993) with OLS model according to can have person who discuss result that real example produce. Divided into three issues while studying, except Fama and French (1993) sample materials during, lengthen and summarize during the materials. To the past documents, have the following characteristics: First, in order to prevent OLS law from producing and estimating and leaning towards by mistake, this thesis tries to adopt the quantile regression analytic approach. Second, the quantile regression comes back with the real example result of traditional OLS, really exist in a lot of different places, show the real example result of traditional OLS that documents adopt, estimate in the middle that may exist by mistake simply. Third, this thesis try by the characteristic that the quantile regression to boldly in order to with Fama and French (1993) the same sample and the materials are probed into, find a lot of hiding information. Fourth, this thesis is headed by the page and verify Fama and French firsthand information and add the materials and market kinetic energy factor on later stage with quantile regression, Fifth, Study and discover in the middle, coefficient value of RM, SMB, HML and Mom is among superb volume remuneration and low excess remuneration, the impact on ER has the response different from decreasing progressively of increasing progressively, this result and OLS disagree. Sixth, SMB and HML really have ability of explaining to ER, but Fama and French (1993) the real example results made have not totally verified in this research, but its model characteristic of the view, the fruit examined with QR law is relatively according with the present situation.
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Huang, Chun-Wei, and 黃俊衞. "Fama and French Three-Factor Model applied to Taiwan stock market." Thesis, 2010. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/03960123016469823036.
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碩士南台科技大學
企業管理系
98
Many literatures have discussed about CAPM and Fama and French three-factor model. However, there are more variables could explain stock return. Therefore, the literature review discusses CAPM, Fama and French three-factor model and other variables. This research adopts Fama and French three-factor model, five-factor model and six-factor model to analyze which variable have more important effect on stock return. This research introduces CAPM and Fama and French three-factor first, and then introduces each variable were included in this research. After that, doing the quantitative research by running regression, then composed tables for the results. Finally analyzes the result and discusses which factor has explanatory power to stock return. There are some findings in this research. First of all, the market factor and turnover factor had the most significantly effects on stock return in Taiwan stock market. Both factor showed significant correlation with stock return in simple regression, Fama and French three factor model, five factor model and six factor model. Secondly, the size factor had significantly negative correlation with stock return in simple regression and Fama and French three factor model. As for other variables, most of them only have significant correlation with stock return in simple regression.
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Denizci, Basak Upneja Arun. "Pricing effect of restaurant industry related factors on Fama French three factor model." 2006. http://etda.libraries.psu.edu/theses/approved/WorldWideIndex/ETD-1581/index.html.
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Basiewicz, Patryk. "Motivating, constructing and testing the Fama-French three factor model on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange." Thesis, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10539/10371.
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MCom (Research) , Faculty of Commerce, Law and Management, University of the Witwatersrand, 2007The purpose of this dissertation is to motivate, construct and test the suitability of the Fama and French (1993) three-factor model in pricing equities listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. Before this can be achieved, however, the existence of the size and the value effects needs to be established, and their resistance to risk adjustment with traditional asset pricing models needs to be ascertained. Once, these two empirical facts are documented, the three-factor model is built and tested. Results of Fama and French (1992) can be replicated on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange in that a firm‟s size and its value-growth indicator have reliable power to forecast stock returns. However, the value effect and, in particular, the size effect, attenuate after market microstructure is controlled for. Both effects are found to be independent of one another and the book-to-market ratio is found to be the best value-growth indicator. The static CAPM and an APT variant cannot explain the size and the value effects. This result is robust to time-series and cross-sectional tests. The three factor model of Fama and French (1993), and its variant, are constructed. The models can capture a substantial amount of time-series variation in most assets. When applied to the size and book-to-market sorted portfolios, they are not rejected in the vast majority of asset pricing tests. In tests on ungrouped data, the three factor model can explain the value effect, but not the size effect. However, in cross-sectional tests that use the size and book-to-market sorted portfolios as well as industry portfolios, the pricing errors of the three factor model are not substantially different from the ones obtained from the static CAPM.
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Kuo, Min-Yu, and 郭珉妤. "Using dividend yield to construct portfolios and comparing CAPM model with Fama and French three factor model." Thesis, 2019. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/x8ta76.
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Tsai, Pei-Fen, and 蔡佩芬. "The performance of Fama and French three-factor model in different models, groups, and estimations of betas." Thesis, 2004. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/18553275956193605811.
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碩士國立中央大學
財務金融研究所
92
This thesis uses three different approaches to examine the three-factor model proposed by Fama and French(1993).They use traditional two-pass procedure to solve the estimation problem, and we modify the method by taking different models. Whether we do grouping or not is also an important decision in dealing with our data, we find that grouping in both the two-stage get the stable estimates but lose much information. However, when we consider individuals in both step,and we include most information but the estimates vary a lot. We also consider different kinds of estimation of betas, and the appearance of estimates differ a lot. We can get different significant factors in the three models.
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Lin, Cheng-Hsun, and 林政勳. "An Empirical Analysis of Fama and French Three Factor Model－An Application of GARCH Model and Quantile Regression." Thesis, 2004. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/02509182326551912666.
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碩士真理大學
管理科學研究所
92
This research we apply GARCH model proposed by Bollerslev（1986） and quantile regression proposed by Koenker and Bassett(1978), to survey the cross section ability of Fama－French three factor model.Our finding is as follows. When error term is taken into account together with first order autocorrelation and GARCH model, Fama－French three factor model exists size effect and book-to-market effect to Taiwan stock market. However, market factor also has quite explaining importance that we couldn’t ignore. Furthermore, most models can explain the return of Taiwan stock market , and this kind of explaining ability means that Fama－French three factor model can explain domestic security return completely in extent well. The empirical result from quantile regression is found that, excepted for median quantile, at other quantile points show that there are still some factors omitted to consider in Fama－French three factor model. In big-size/median-book to market portfolio, size factor only can explain returns at higher point even although coefficient is negative. In big-size/low-book to market portfolio, the estimated result of OLS exhibit size factor is insignificant, but is significant at 70 percent quantile. Under the condition of that the error term can’t follow normality and size factor is heteroskedasticity, the result is found that quantile regression could retrieve the shortage of OLS. Finally, with the respect to the model explaining ability, Pseudo R2 of all models, has the phenomenon of increasing from lower quantile to higher quantile, which means that at higher quantile, Fama－French three factors can explain stock average returns more.
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Cheng, Chiao-Ming, and 鄭喬明. "Using novel MCDM Methods Based on Fama-French three-factor model for probing the stock selection." Thesis, 2009. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/75283631260837164645.
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碩士開南大學
企業與創業管理學系
98
Fama-French three-factor model is important financial evaluation for the stock return model in recent years, the model indicates that market factor, size factor and book-to-market ratio factor are the reasons that would affect the rate of the return of stocks. But it did not explain the relative weight of the sub-factor to the three factors. Therefore the purpose of this thesis is to discuss more in details, which Fama-French three-factor model did not explain. This paper use DANP methods includes DEMATEL (Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory), and ANP (Analytic Network Process) to establish the investment model. Our research also use VIKOR (VlseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje) to selection stock in three firms of solar energy. Empirical findings these three factors have the relationship of interdependence and feedback. In the nine evaluation criteria, the most important factor affect the stock return is the stock price, followed by the market return and dividend growth rate, In the selection stock of solar energy, the leading manufacturers C is the closest to the investor’s aspired level of remuneration, thus it has become the favorite of investors at that time.
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Graça, Nuno Miguel Lourenço. "Asset pricing tests: different methods and their performance on capm and fama-french three-factor model." Master's thesis, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10071/7383.
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Estimar e avaliar modelos de Asset Pricing não é uma tarefa elementar. Os resultados obtidos dependem do método utilizado, das hipóteses que são tomadas, nos dados usados, etc. Apesar dos esforços para se encontrar estatísticas precisas, não existe consenso em relação ao método que deve ser usado para testar os modelos, que ajustes são necessários aplicar a esse método, que dados devem ser utilizados, entre outras coisas.
Esta tese ajuda a mostrar que diferentes métodos podem levar a conclusões consideravelmente diferentes no que aos modelos testados/avaliados diz respeito. Apesar de alguma evidência a favor dos tradicionais métodos de regressão OLS e GLS, em especial quando se trata de estimar o prémio de risco, não é possível dizer que este é o melhor método, ou muito menos que é perfeito.
A aceitação do CAPM ou do FF3 depende fortemente do método e dos dados usados, o que significa que ambos são rejeitados com a mesma facilidade com que são aceites. No entanto, devido à potência relativamente baixa dos testes multivariados, é expectável que os modelos sejam rejeitados bastante menos vezes do que seria suposto. Parece também não haver uma performance significativamente melhor de um dos modelos em relação ao outro.Estimating and testing asset pricing models is not a straightforward task. Results depend on the method used, on the assumptions made, on the data used, etc. Despite all efforts to find the most accurate statistics, there is not a consensus on which method to use to test the models, which adjustments those methods need, which data shall be employed, among other issues. I have helped to show that different methods can lead to quite different conclusions regarding the estimated/evaluated models. Despite some evidence in favour of traditional OLS and GLS cross-sectional regressions, especially concerning estimation, it cannot be said that this model is the best one and it is far from being perfect. The acceptance of the CAPM and FF3 models heavily depends of the method and data used, i.e., they are accepted with the same easiness as they are rejected. As multivariate tests have quite low power, it is to expect that models are rejected much less frequently than they should be. Also, none of them seems to perform significantly better than the other.
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Liao, Yi-ling, and 廖怡玲. "The Applicability of Fama-French’s Three-factor Model in Taiwan Equity Market." Thesis, 2011. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/47146947567804711707.
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碩士國立高雄大學
金融管理學系碩士班
99
Fama-French’s three-factor model is widely used to explain the cross section of stock returns across different countries. Their factor model assumes that investors would obtain relevant information at least in the end of June; however, this assumption is not always supported in other countries due to distinct reporting requirements. This paper uses Taiwanese firms which possess different reporting requirements to observe whether different calculation methods of the three factors would distort the identification of anomalies. We find that the calculation methods of the three-factor model significantly affect the presence and significance of anomalies. Moreover, we also find that the sorting of variables based on profitability achieves the most significant and highest risk-adjusted returns under the three-factor models with different calculation methods. Overall, profitability-related anomalies cannot be subsumed by the three-factor model in Taiwan.