Academic literature on the topic 'Feather industry'

Feathers, as a waste, are produced in large quantities from poultry processing industry every year. In this paper, feathers were biodegraded by Stenotrophomonas maltophilia DHHJ which was isolated from soil samples. The results show that the optimal conditions for the feather degradation and the keratinase production are 2.5% feather as substrate, the initial pH of 7.8 and cultivation at 40 °C for 5 days. Salts, KCl and NaCl, can increase feather degradation slightly. The proper concentration of Tween 80 can enhance keratinase production significantly. EDTA, as a metalloprotease inhibitor, greatly inhibits keratinolytic activity.

This article focuses on the benefits of clustering same field companies in the same city or region. The article also discusses that clustering same field companies in same region can help businesses and engineers and in making vital decisions. In addition, interactions and successful partnering among these various organizations can create synergies that increase the productivity of companies, drive the direction and pace of innovation, and stimulate new business start-ups. The concentration of energy businesses along Katy Freeway, Houston is a classic example of what economists call a business cluster, an industry cluster. Investing in technology centers and instituting government-sponsored incentives may persuade firms to locate in a region, however, without the economic culture of collaborative relationships; a collection of companies will never become a true business cluster. The article also highlights that professional organizations can promote fruitful interactions between individuals in an industry and help promote business interests in a cluster.

Three Bacillus species (B. subtilis LFB-FIOCRUZ 1270, B. subtilis LFB-FIOCRUZ 1273, and B. licheniformis LFB-FIOCRUZ 1274), isolated from the poultry industry, were evaluated for keratinase production using feathers or feather meal as the sole carbon and nitrogen sources in a submerged fermentation. The three Bacillus spp. produced extracellular keratinases and peptidases after 7 days. Feather meal was the best substrate for keratinase and peptidase production in B. subtilis 1273, with 412 U/mL and 463 U/ml. The three strains were able to degrade feather meal (62–75%) and feather (40–95%) producing 3.9–4.4 mg/ml of soluble protein in feather meal medium and 1.9–3.3 mg/ml when feather medium was used. The three strains produced serine peptidases with keratinase and gelatinase activity. B. subtilis 1273 was the strain which exhibited the highest enzymatic activity.

Production of organic fertilizer from poultry feather wastes excluding the composting process Chicken feathers generated in large quantities by the poultry industry are hazardous for the natural environment because of their poor digestibility and their potential as a source of microbiological pathogens. Currently, the main method of feather waste management is the production of feather meal by steam pressure cooking. This technology requires a high energy input. The high costs of hydrothermal degradation of these wastes are conducive to finding other alternative possibilities of poultry wastes management. This paper describes the feather-utilization method with calcium oxide treatment in a rotational reactor, which leads to the production of organic-mineral fertilizers. The effectiveness of this method has been tested in chemical and microbiological analyses. The results of the study confirm the possibility of the environmental usage of utilization-products.

The down industry is one of the special agricultural industrial clusters in West Anhui province, China. There are large drainage and large pollution load in the washing down industry. By analysing the characteristics of wastewater from down washing industry, it is proposed that the enterprises of down industry should separate heavily polluted wastewater from slightly polluted and reuse the wastewater directly or after regeneration treatment. According to the gathering situation of down feather industrial enterprises in West Anhui province, it is proposed to build down feather industrial park and down specialized sewage treatment plant in the industrial gathering area, so as to solve the pollution problem of enterprises through centralized treatment and make industry bigger and stronger.

Every year billion kilograms of unused feathers result from the poultry industry worldwide, which in effect impose a difficult disposal process to the environment. Chicken feathers are considered as a valuable and renewable keratin protein source, which could be used advantageously in a number of applications as alternatives to feather meal and feather disposal. Although the potential applications of keratin derived from chicken feathers have been investigated, the initial purification phase has not been fully described in the literature. Original chicken feathers contain many biological organisms along with other contaminants after plucking. Unprocessed chicken feathers are considered as potentially hazardous biological materials due to the presence of blood borne pathogens; therefore, the decontamination process is very important. The purpose of this work is to compare the effects of different purification techniques on chicken feathers prior to keratin isolation. These processes include surfactant washing, soxhlet extraction with ethanol, ozone, and sodium chlorite solutions. Thermogravimetric analysis, vibrational spectroscopy, and wide angle X-ray scattering were used to characterise the purified feathers prior to keratin extraction.

Chicken feather is a massive by-product. Its incorrect disposal can lead to serious environmental impacts. However, chicken feather is a promising low-cost keratin source. Keratin products have a wide application in the food and pharmaceutical industry. Mostly, chicken feathers are hydrolyzed by hydrothermal processes, and then applied into animal feed formulations. Despite the low cost, the hydrothermal hydrolysis leads to uncontrolled and low hydrolysis yield. Therefore, the aim of this work was to develop and optimize a sequential strategy of chicken feathers hydrolysis composed of ultrasound and enzymatic hydrolysis (savinase®) steps. In the first research step an experimental design was built and the optimum hydrolysis condition was obtained at 50 °C and 12.5% (enzyme/chicken feather), using three integrated rectors containing enzyme/substrate and sodium disulfite. Then, the ultrasound probe was added in the experimental apparatus in order to investigate the enzymatic hydrolysis assisted by ultrasound treatment. The enzymatic hydrolysis assisted by ultrasound treatment led to high concentrations of peptides, including a dipeptide (245.1868 m/z). Thus, the sequential hydrolysis strategy composed by two green technologies proposed in this study, enhanced the degree of hydrolysis of chicken feathers, producing bioactive peptides that can be used as ingredients in food products and other sectors.

Geese feather production and the quality of downy feathers are additional economically important traits in the geese industry. However, little information is available about the molecular mechanisms fundamental to feather formation and the quality of feathers in geese. This study conducted de novo transcriptome sequencing analysis of two related geese species using the Illumina 4000 platform to determine the genes involved in embryonic skin feather follicle development. A total of 165,564,278 for Anser anser and 144,595,262 for Anser cygnoides clean reads were generated, which were further assembled into 77,134 unigenes with an average length of 906 base pairs in Anser anser and 66,041 unigenes with an average length of 922 base pairs in Anser cygnoides. To recognize the potential regulatory roles of differentially expressed genes (DEGs) during geese embryonic skin feather follicle development, the obtained unigenes were annotated to Gene Ontology (GO), Eukaryotic Orthologous Groups (KOG), and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) for functional analysis. In both species, GO and KOG had shown similar distribution patterns during functional annotation except for KEGG, which showed significant variation in signaling enrichment. Anser asnser was significantly enriched in the calcium signaling pathway, whereas Anser cygnoides was significantly enriched with glycerolipid metabolism. Further analysis indicated that 14,227 gene families were conserved between the species, among which a total of 20,715 specific gene families were identified. Comparative RNA-Seq data analysis may reveal inclusive knowledge to assist in the identification of genetic regulators at a molecular level to improve feather quality production in geese and other poultry species.

Development of industrialization is directly proportional to the development of nations. Rising industrializations also increase the pollutions. One of them is poultry industry which discharges a huge amount of keratinous waste. The present study focused on the selection of feather degrading bacteria from Barshi region of Maharashtra. Bacterial strains were grown in whole feather broth medium. Out of 16 proteolytic bacterial isolates, 9 feather degrading isolates were selected from the Parande road side feather waste dumping area. Among these isolates, P3A was selected and classified on the basis of morphological and biochemical analysis. 16S rRNA studies confirmed that the isolated strain was Staphylococcus epidermidis. Staphylococcus epidermidis P3A shows 84% feather degradation and 72 U/ml maximum keratinase activity after 96 hrs. The isolate shows potential use in feather waste disposal methods which are safe and environment friendly.

Context. Variability management (VM) in automotive domain is a promising solution to reduction of complexity. Feature modeling, as starting point of VM, deals with analysis and representation of available features in terms of commonalities and variabilities. The work is done in the context of an automotive industry – Adam Opel AG. Objectives. This work studies the automotive specific problems with respect to feature modeling, investigates what decomposition and structuring approaches exist in literature, and which one of them satisfies the industrial requirements. The approach to feature modeling is synthesized, evaluated and documented. Methods. In this work a case study with survey and literature review is performed. Survey uses semi structured interview and workshops as data collection methods. Systematic review includes articles from Compendex, Inspec, IEEE Xplore, ACM Digital Library, Science Direct and Engineering Village. Approach selection is based on mapping requirements against discovered approaches and discussion with industry practitioner on the regular meetings. Evaluation is proposed according to Goal Question Metric paradigm. Results. The approach that can be followed in the case organization is described and evaluated. The reasoning behind feature modeling approach construction and selection can be generalized for other organizations as well. Conclusions. We conclude that there is no perfect approach that would solve all the problems connected to automotive software. However, structuring approaches can be complementary and while combining give a good results. Tool support that integrates into the whole development cycle is important, as the amount of information cannot be processed using simple feature modeling tools. There is a need for further investigation in both directions – tool support and structuring approaches. The tactics that are proposed here should be introduced in organizations and formally evaluated.
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The purpose of this thesis is to assess the potential of establishing a viable indigenous feature film industry in British Columbia. An understanding of the B.C. situation was gained by researching and illustrating the organization of the various parts: production, distribution, and exhibition. This was undertaken by reading various industry publications on the "business" of film making and reading newspaper and trade journal articles. Information about the history of public policy as well as current federal and provincial programs for feature film making was taken from task force reports, Canadian Film Corporation reports, and Telefilm Canada annual reports. Statistics on the industry were gained from Statistics Canada, Telefilm Canada, the Canadian Film and Video Certification Office, and provincial agencies, in particular, B.C. Film annual reports. Personal interviews based on a questionnaire were held with eighteen British Columbia producers who were initiating feature film projects in 1988. Canadian producers are dependent on access to federal and provincial sources of finanicng for as much as 62 per cent of their financing. The balance is provided by broadcasters, private investors, and deferral agreements, or through co-productions with other countries. Because of Hollywood's control of Canada's exhibition market, only 3-5 per cent of screen time is accorded to Canadian feature films. Because of our small domestic market, Canadian producers must rely on international sales to break even. Moreover, feature filmmaking in Canada, like in most other countries, is characterized by great risk and little chance of profitability. The Canadian government is now supporting a nucleus of Canadian-owned distributors with subsidies to help them establish both a capital base and contacts in the international marketplace. Domestic television production has also been a factor in Canada's feature film development. Writers, directors, producers, and technicians have gained experience by being able to work in the broadcast medium. Successful production companies produce a mixture of both television and feature films. As well, these companies have established relationhips with companies in other countries, thereby providing them with an expanded market and opportunites for co-productions. B.C.'s feature film sector is comprised of small production companies with limited revenues who produce feature films on a project-by-project basis through the opportunities provided by B.C. Film and Telefilm. Few have enough capital to plan and manage substantial feature film or television production. Increases in B.C. production are a direct result of success in getting this support. However, Telefilm's funding to the province's filmmakers is unreliable, evidenced by the production of eleven films in 1988 and only one in 1990. A major drawback for B.C. producers is the geographic distance from head offices of existing Canadian broadcasting networks and major feature film distribution companies in Eastern Canada. However, B.C. producers have access to a strong local base of crews, studio facilities, and substantial post production, facilitated by the breadth of American location shooting and commercial production being done in our province. The need is to establish a new, realistic level of operation for the feature film industry in B.C. and to provide the support to sustain it for 5-7 years in order to it to become viable. Given the above conditions, the three main factors in achieving a viable feature film industry in B.C. will be: a) the development of several medium-size companies; b) the provision of adequate funds from federal and provincial sources; and, c) the promotion of the supply of good quality scripts.
Applied Science, Faculty of
Community and Regional Planning (SCARP), School of
Graduate

Thesis (M.S.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, 1986.
MICROFICHE COPY AVAILABLE IN ARCHIVES AND DEWEY.
Bibliography: leaves 127-133.
by Dennis G. Pratt.
M.S.

Down feathers are remarkable insulating materials that reputedly have the greatest warmth-to-weight ratio of all natural fibres, and they possess excellent compressibility and compression recovery. Despite their outstanding performance as thermal insulators, down feathers have been relatively overlooked by the academic community and their structure and properties remain quite poorly understood. To provide insight into the fundamental properties of these feathers and to inspire the design and development of future synthetic insulation materials, a study into the structural, mechanical, and thermal properties of down feathers and their assemblies has been conducted. The appearance, mass, size, and geometric shape of goose, duck, and eider down plumes and their barbs were assessed. While goose and duck down plumes were very similar in both appearance and size, the eider down feathers were found to be larger and their barbules had a greater number of prongs and nodes. In each type of down, barbules were adapted to occupy maximum space and utilised a planar cross-section as they divided from the barb to optimise compression recovery. The microstructure and morphology of goose and duck down barbs and barbules were analysed using SEM, TEM, and AFM and were found to be analogous to wool fibres. Melanin granules were found in goose down but not in duck down, and the examined goose down barbs had irregular, hollow cross sections, whereas duck down’s were solid and more elliptical. With the help of novel down-based nonwovens developed to capture X-ray diffraction data from goose and duck down with excellent clarity, goose and duck down were found to share great similarities in their crystal structures. The mechanical properties of goose, duck, and eider down feathers were studied, including a comparison of their barbs’ tensile properties and the compression resistance and recovery of individual down plumes. Eider down barbs were found to have greater Young’s moduli, ultimate strength, and strain at break than goose or duck down barbs, and individual eider down plumes were also more compression resistant than those from geese and ducks. The compression resistance and recovery of goose and duck down assemblies were studied using a novel apparatus. Goose down proved to be more compression resistant than duck down, attributed to its cross sectional shape and hollow geometry. The thermal resistances of goose and duck down-filled test squares were extremely similar, but the densities of the down inside the face fabrics strongly influenced their thermal resistances. Air-laid and thermal-bonded down-feather-based nonwovens were developed to alleviate the problem of constraining individual down feathers in insulated products. Their structural and thermal properties were evaluated and they possessed industry-leading warmth-to-weight ratios, which could be further improved by better engineering of these composite materials. Great efforts have been made to provide a comprehensive investigation into the structure and properties of both individual and bulk down feathers in relation to their thermal insulation properties. It is hoped that this research will prove useful to the development of superior biomimetic synthetic insulations as well as the high performance products made from down, a world-leading natural material.

Bibliography: p. 212-220.
The aim of digital photogrammetry is the automated extraction and classification of the three dimensional information of a scene from a number of images. Existing photogrammetric systems are semi-automatic requiring manual editing and control, and have very limited domains of application so that image understanding capabilities are left to the user. Among the most important steps in a fully integrated system are the extraction of features suitable for matching, the establishment of the correspondence between matching points and object classification. The following study attempts to explore the applicability of pattern recognition concepts in conjunction with existing area-based methods, feature-based techniques and other approaches used in computer vision in order to increase the level of automation and as a general alternative and addition to existing methods. As an illustration of the pattern recognition approach examples of industrial applications are given. The underlying method is then extended to the identification of objects in aerial images of urban scenes and to the location of targets in close-range photogrammetric applications. Various moment-based techniques are considered as pattern classifiers including geometric invariant moments, Legendre moments, Zernike moments and pseudo-Zernike moments. Two-dimensional Fourier transforms are also considered as pattern classifiers. The suitability of these techniques is assessed. These are then applied as object locators and as feature extractors or interest operators. Additionally the use of fractal dimension to segment natural scenes for regional classification in order to limit the search space for particular objects is considered. The pattern recognition techniques require considerable preprocessing of images. The various image processing techniques required are explained where needed. Extracted feature points are matched using relaxation based techniques in conjunction with area-based methods to 'obtain subpixel accuracy. A subpixel pattern recognition based method is also proposed and an investigation into improved area-based subpixel matching methods is undertaken. An algorithm for determining relative orientation parameters incorporating the epipolar line constraint is investigated and compared with a standard relative orientation algorithm. In conclusion a basic system that can be automated based on some novel techniques in conjunction with existing methods is described and implemented in a mapping application. This system could be largely automated with suitably powerful computers.

AbstractIndustry 4.0 is affecting almost every area of the industry, and as a result of its effects, systems, technologies, and the way information is processed are being transformed. Its typical feature is transmission of information in the system environment provided by the Internet of Things. All information should be stored and shared through cloud computing. As a result, access to information should be unrestricted. This chapter is focused on Computational Intelligence (CI) in the context of Industry 4.0. Each subchapter provides fundamentals of some paradigms, followed by the use of CI in the concrete paradigm. The ending part of the chapter is focused on connecting theory and practice in a case study, which lists industrial parts recognition by convolutional neural networks for assisted assembly.

Currently, between two and four billion pounds of feathers are produced annually by the poultry processing industry. These feathers are usually converted to animal feed in an attempt to recycle it rather than dispose of them in landfills. However, this method can result in diseases being passed along to the ingestors of this feather meal. Until recently there was no method of removing the quill from feather, but a method of effectively stripping the feather fibers from the quill without damaging the fibers has been patented, and as a result research is being conducted to determine uses for these fibers. Current research has focused on creating nonwoven latex bonded fabrics containing turkey feather fibers for utilization as erosion control fabrics. These fabrics have been compared with currently available erosion control fabrics to determine their suitability for this particular purpose.

The paper considers the main problems associated with metrological support of measuring instruments, both general purpose and special industry measuring instruments. Feature of the activity metrological services at the enterprises of the aviation industry is maintenance of measuring instruments that are subject to verification (calibration).

1. Original Objectives. The original broad objectives of the grant were to determine A) the impact of CAV on the generation of cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTL) to reticuloendotheliosis virus (REV) (CU), B). the interactions between chicken anemia virus (CAV) and Marek’s disease virus (MDV) with an emphasis on horizontal spread of CAV through feathers (KVI), and C) the impact of CAV infection on Salmonella typhimurium (STM) (HUJI). During the third year and the one year no cost extension the CU group included some work on the development of an antigen-antibody complex vaccine for CAV, which was partially funded by the US Poultry and Egg Association. 2. Background to the topic. CAV is a major pathogen causing clinical disease if maternal antibody-free chickens are infected vertically or horizontally between 1 and 14 days of age. Infection after 3 weeks of age when maternal antibodies are not longer present can cause severe subclinical immunosuppression affecting CTL and cytokine expression. The subclinical immunosuppression can aggravate many diseases including Marek’s disease (MD) and several bacterial infections. 3. Major conclusions and achievements. The overall project contributed in the following ways to the knowledge about CAV infection in poultry. As expected CAV infections occur frequently in Israel causing problems to the industry. To control subclinical infections vaccination may be needed and our work indicates that the development of an antigen-antibody complex vaccine is feasible. It was previously known that CAV can spread vertically and horizontally, but the exact routes of the latter had not been confirmed. Our results clearly show that CAV can be shed into the environment through feathers. A potential interaction between CAV and MD virus (MDV) in the feathers was noted which may interfere with MDV replication. It was also learned that inoculation of 7-day-old embryos causes growth retardation and lesions. The potential of CAV to cause immunosuppression was further examined using CTL responses to REV. CTL were obtained from chickens between 36 and 44 days of age with REV and CAV given at different time points. In contrast to our earlier studies, in these experiments we were unable to detect a direct impact of CAV on REV-specific CTL, perhaps because the CTL were obtained from older birds. Inoculation of CAV at one day of age decreased the IgG antibody responses to inactivated STM administered at 10 days of age. 4. Scientific and Agricultural Implications The impact of the research was especially important for the poultry industry in Israel. The producers have been educated on the importance of the disease through the many presentations. It is now well known to the stakeholders that CAV can aggravate other diseases, decrease productivity and profitability. As a consequence they monitor the antibody status of the breeders so that the maternal antibody status of the broilers is known. Also vaccination of breeder flock that remain antibody negative may become feasible further reducing the negative impact of CAV infection. Vaccination may become more important because improved biosecurity of the breeder flocks to prevent avian influenza and Salmonella may delay the onset of seroconversion for CAV by natural exposure resulting in CAV susceptible broilers lacking maternal antibodies. Scientifically, the research added important information on the horizontal spread of CAV through feathers, the interactions with Salmonella typhimurium and the demonstration that antigen-antibody complex vaccines may provide protective immunity.

The 2017 Duck Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Pilot Experiment was conducted by the US Army Engineer Research and Development Center (ERDC), Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory, Field Research Facility (FRF), to assess the potential for different UAS to support US Army Corps of Engineers coastal and flood risk management. By involving participants from multiple ERDC laboratories, federal agencies, academia, and private industry, the work unit leads were able to leverage assets, resources, and expertise to assess data from multiple UAS. This report compares datasets from several UAS to assess their potential to survey and observe coastal terrain and structures. In this report, UAS data product accuracy was analyzed within the context of three potential applications: (1) general coastal terrain survey accuracy across the FRF property; (2) small-scale feature detection and observation within the experiment infrastructure area; and (3) accuracy for surveying coastal foredunes. The report concludes by presenting tradeoffs between UAS accuracy and the cost to operate to aid in selection of the best UAS for a particular task. While the technology and exact UAS models vary through time, the lessons learned from this study illustrate that UAS are available at a variety of costs to satisfy varying coastal management data needs.

Albury-Wodonga, situated in Wiradjuri country, sits astride the Murray River and has benefitted in many ways from its almost equidistance from Sydney and Melbourne. It has found strength in the earlier push for decentralisation begun in early 1970s. A number of State and Federal agencies have ensured middle class professionals now call this region home. Light industry is a feature of Wodonga while Albury maintains the traditions and culture of its former life as part of the agricultural squattocracy. Both Local Councils are keen to work cooperatively to ensure the region is an attractive place to live signing an historical partnership agreement. The region’s road, rail, increasing air links and now digital infrastructure, keep it closely connected to events elsewhere. At the same time its distance from the metropolitan centres has meant it has had to ensure that its creative and cultural life has been taken into its own hands. The establishment of the sophisticated Murray Art Museum Albury (MAMA) as well as the presence of the LibraryMuseum, Hothouse Theatre, Fruit Fly Circus, The Cube, Arts Space and the development of Gateway Island on the Murray River as a cultural hub, as well as the high profile activities of its energetic, entrepreneurial and internationally savvy locals running many small businesses, events and festivals, ensures Albury Wodonga has a creative heart to add to its rural and regional activities.

Background Most of Australian prawn aquaculture production is based on P. monodon. However, the Australian industry is under intense competition from lower priced overseas imports. The availability of all-female monosex populations, by virtue of their large size and associated premium prize, will offer competitive advantage to the industry which desperately needs to counteract competitors within this market. As for the redclaw production in Israel, although it is at its infancy, the growers realized that the production of males is extremely advantageous and that such management strategy will change the economic assumptions and performances of this aquaculture to attract many more growers. Original objectives (as in original proposal) Investigating the sex inheritance mechanism in the tiger prawn. Identification of genes expressed uniquely in the androgenic gland (AG) of prawns and crayfish. The above genes and/or their products will be used to localize the AG in the prawn and manipulate the AG activity in both species. Production of monosex populations through AG manipulation. In the prawn, production of all-female populations and in the crayfish, all-male populations. Achievements In the crayfish, the AG cDNA library was further screened and a third AG specific transcript, designated Cq-AG3, had been identified. Simultaneously the two AG specific genes, which were previously identified, were further characterized. Tissue specificity of one of those genes, termed Cq-AG2, was demonstrated by northern blot hybridization and RNA in-situ hybridization. Bioinformatics prediction, which suggested a 42 amino acid long signal anchor at the N-terminus of the deduced Cq-AG2, was confirmed by immunolocalization of a recombinant protein. Cq-IAG's functionality was demonstrated by dsRNA in-vivo injections to intersex crayfish. Cq-IAGsilencing induced dramatic sex-related alterations, including male feature feminization, reduced sperm production, extensive testicular apoptosis, induction of the vitellogeningene expression and accumulation of yolk proteins in the ovaries. In the prawn, the AG was identified and a cDNA library was created. The putative P. monodonAG hormone encoding gene (Pm-IAG) was identified, isolated and characterized for time of expression and histological localization. Implantation of the AG into prawn post larvae (PL) and juveniles resulted in phenotypic transformation which included the appearance of appendix masculina and enlarged petasma. The transformation however did not result in sex change or the creation of neo males thus the population genetics stage to be executed with Prof. Hulata did not materialized. Repeated AG implantation is currently being trialed. Major conclusions and Implications, both scientific and agricultural Cq-IAG's involvement in male sexual differentiation had been demonstrated and it is strongly suggested that this gene encodes an AG hormone in this crayfish. A thorough screening of the AG cDNA library shows Cq-IAG is the prominent transcript within the library. However, the identification of two additional transcripts hints that Cq-IAG is not the only gene mediating the AG effects. The successful gene silencing of Cq-IAG, if performed at earlier developmental stages, might accomplish full and functional sex reversal which will enable the production of all-male crayfish populations. Pm-IAG is likely to play a similar role in prawns. It is possible that repeated administration of the AG into prawn will lead to the desired full sex reversal, so that WZ neo males, crossed with WZ females can result in WW females, which will form the basis for monosex all-female population.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.