Academic literature on the topic 'Federal Indian law'

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Journal articles on the topic "Federal Indian law"

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Akhtar, Zia. "Federal Law and Indian Rights." International Journal of Human Rights 12, no. 2 (April 2008): 297–301. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13642980801899832.

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Frickey, Philip P., and William C. Canby. "Scholarship, Pedagogy, and Federal Indian Law." Michigan Law Review 87, no. 6 (May 1989): 1199. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1289243.

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Larson, Sidner J. "Making Sense of Federal Indian Law." Wicazo Sa Review 20, no. 1 (2005): 9–21. http://dx.doi.org/10.1353/wic.2005.0010.

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Johnson, Marilyn F., and Mark S. Johnson. "Federal Tax Law Trumps Indian Canon." Cornell Hospitality Quarterly 57, no. 4 (July 10, 2016): 434–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1938965516631640.

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Frickey, Philip P., and Frank Pommersheim. "Context and Legitimacy in Federal Indian Law." Michigan Law Review 94, no. 6 (May 1996): 1973. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/1289978.

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Greenwald, Emily. "Uneven Ground: American Indian Sovereignty and Federal Law." Public Historian 26, no. 3 (2004): 90–91. http://dx.doi.org/10.1525/tph.2004.26.3.90.

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Asher, Brad, David E. Wilkins, and K. Tsianina Lomawaima. "Uneven Ground: American Indian Sovereignty and Federal Law." Western Historical Quarterly 34, no. 1 (April 1, 2003): 77. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/25047214.

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Cobb, D. M. "Uneven Ground: American Indian Sovereignty and Federal Law." Ethnohistory 51, no. 3 (July 1, 2004): 658–60. http://dx.doi.org/10.1215/00141801-51-3-658.

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Hoss, Aila. "Federal Indian Law as a Structural Determinant of Health." Journal of Law, Medicine & Ethics 47, S4 (2019): 34–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/1073110519898041.

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Federal Indian law is the body of law that defines the rights, responsibilities, and relationships between three sovereigns, Tribes, states, and the federal government. This area of law has defined, oftentimes poorly, the contours of treaty rights, criminal and civil jurisdiction, economic development, among other issues. Much has been documented in terms of the implications of social, legal, political, and economic systems that perpetuate inequities amongst American Indian and Alaska Native populations. There has also been substantial research on health inequalities. Yet, there has been less discussion on the role of law in perpetuating these adverse health outcomes in these populations. The social and structural determinants of health are the factors and conditions, such as housing, education, and politics, that create health disparities. For years, law has been described as a tool to promote health and even a determinant of health. And while research has explored Tribal health laws and federal Indian health policies, more needs to be analyzed in terms of the role of foundational principles of federal Indian law in perpetuating health disparities. This article argues that federal Indian law is a structural determinant of health by linking health disparities to the constructs of this body of law.
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Crepelle, Adam. "White Tape and Indian Wards: Removing the Federal Bureaucracy to Empower Tribal Economies and Self-Government." University of Michigan Journal of Law Reform, no. 54.3 (2021): 563. http://dx.doi.org/10.36646/mjlr.54.3.white.

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American Indians have the highest poverty rate in the United States, and dire poverty ensnares many reservations. With no private sector and abysmal infrastructure, reservations are frequently likened to third-world countries. Present-day Indian poverty is a direct consequence of present-day federal Indian law and policy. Two-hundred-year-old laws premised on Indian incompetency remain a part of the U.S. legal system; accordingly, Indian country is bound by heaps of federal regulations that apply nowhere else in the United States. The federal regulatory structure impedes tribal economic development and prevents tribes from controlling their own resources. This Article asserts the federal regulatory “white tape” is unconstitutional. By focusing on restraints upon trust land and Indian trader laws, this Article demonstrates that contemporary federal regulations impeding tribal economic development are based upon flagrantly racist ideas. This Article explores the unique relationship between Indians and the Constitution and concludes that restrictions on tribal trust land and Indian trader laws should be subjected to strict scrutiny rather than the usual rational basis review applied to legislation relating to Indians. These regulations cannot survive strict scrutiny. Once tribes are liberated from these antiquated regulations, this Article proposes that tribes be able to craft their own land use and economic policies without federal approval.
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Federal Indian law"

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Taylor, A. J. "Uncertain Justice: The Ute Jurisdiction Case and Conflicting Directions in Federal Law." DigitalCommons@USU, 1995. https://digitalcommons.usu.edu/etd/1997.

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Questions of jurisdiction over Indian lands between tribal and state governments constitute some of the most vexing problems in federal Indian law. The Ute jurisdiction case captures, in one instance, the complexities that surround this important body of law. Many cases concerning Native American jurisdiction rights center on disputed interpretations of antiquated federal laws. In the Ute case, both the State of Utah and the Ute Indian tribe contested the meaning of a series of congressional acts that opened Ute lands to white settlement at the turn of the century. The protracted litigation that marked the Ute case revealed many of the inconsistencies and contradictions that plague the federal courts in their attempts to resolve jurisdiction controversies. This thesis examines the particulars of the Ute ii lawsuit and, using it as a vehicle, investigates the limits of the law in deciding Indian/white jurisdiction disputes.
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Serrott, Kyle Douglas. "Seeing Red: Settler Colonialism and the Construction of the “Indian Problem” in United States Federal Indian Law and Policy." Ohio University / OhioLINK, 2021. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ohiou1618249252083926.

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Simpson, Michael Wayne. "The Marshall Trilogy and Federal Indian Law in 21ˢᵗ Century High School U.S. History Textbooks: Progress (?) Yet Little Has Changed." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/316917.

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This dissertation examines eight 21ˢᵗ century high school U.S. history textbooks for content and omission concerning American Indians. The focus of the inquiry is on the Marshall Trilogy cases and other federal Indian law cases. The Marshall Trilogy cases are three cases decided by the U.S. Supreme Court over 180 years ago that remain the foundational legal principles that guide governmental relations with Native peoples. The treatment afforded these cases is evaluated in light of a master national narrative for the United States. The Marshall Trilogy cases and the master national narrative have had and continue to have global consequences. The way federal Indian law is presented in textbooks impacts the way citizens treat American Indian peoples and their support for various foreign policy options. In addition, the content of high school history curriculum can affect the way students perceive history, Native America, and schooling. By examining history curriculum critically and establishing a truly inclusive narrative, the hope is that schooling and history become legitimate for all students. The primary approach is to use both a quantitative and qualitative critical content analysis using an indigenized critical discourse approach. Generally, the analysis will move from the focused text within each textbook, to other text within each textbook, to text across the textbooks, and finally to larger socio-cultural phenomena. The APPRAISAL analysis (Coffin, 2006) allows a discerning of linguistic attributes that allows for the exposition of the narrative of the specific text concerning the Marshall Trilogy. The general content analysis is given a critical lens by Brayboy's Tribal Critical Theory (2005) and Grande's Red Pedagogy (2004). The curriculum work of Apple (2004) and Hall's (1986) exposition of Gramsci's hegemony add to our understanding of the nature of textbooks and the knowledge that counts for society. Fairclough's (1995) Dialectic-Relational Approach guides the study to determining whether there is a social wrong, and if so, what it is. The wrong is then examined to determine what obstacles are in the way of addressing the wrong and whether the society needs the wrong. Finally, various ways of correcting the social wrong are addressed.
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Mirlesse, Alice. "Identity on Trial: the Gabrielino Tongva Quest for Federal Recognition." Scholarship @ Claremont, 2013. http://scholarship.claremont.edu/pomona_theses/90.

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In this paper, the author looks at the impact of the policy of federal recognition on a Los Angeles basin Native community: the Gabrielino Tongva. The first section, the literature review focuses on the difficulties of defining “indigenousness” in the academic and political realms, as well as looking at Native scholars’ conceptualization of this unique and multifaceted identity. After a consideration of the theoretical framework of the study, the crossroads between anthropology and public policy analysis, the author presents the tools she used in her study, namely: participant observation, key-informant interviews, and the analysis of published documents and personal files. The section ends with a review of ethical concerns pertaining to doing research with indigenous people. The historical section comprises an analysis of archives and published works about the Tongva and the federal recognition process. Starting by a brief report of major policies that have impacted Native American rights in the U.S. and the evolution of government relations with indigenous communities, the author looks at the legacy of the Tongva people in L.A. today, paying special attention to past efforts at obtaining federal recognition and political divides within the tribe. The analysis is structured according to the different levels of recognition that the author perceived through her research. “Capital R”, or federal recognition is explored through its impact on the individual and the group, and followed by an account of current efforts towards community recognition – “lower-case r.” The paper ends on recommendations for future policies and a personal reflection about the research and its results.
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Weinzettle, Christina. "Proving the Applicability of the Theory of Regulation and the Economic Theory of Regulatory Constraint to American Indian Studies (AIS): A Case Study in Federal Indian Law and Policy." Thesis, The University of Arizona, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/193254.

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The Theory of Regulation and the Economic Theory of Regulatory Constraint have not yet been adapted by American Indian Studies scholars to explain and analyze the federal regulations connected with Federal Indian Law and Policy. It is the intention of this thesis to prove the applicability of these theories to the law and policy concentration of American Indian Studies. The adaptation of these two theories could impact how federal regulations affecting Indian Country are viewed and interpreted. An examination of Federal Indian policy, specifically the regulations (43 CFR 10) promulgated for the Native American Graves Protection and Repatriation Act (NAGPRA) and the National Historic Preservation Act (NHPA) Section 106 tribal consultation processes (36 CFR PART 800) can provide a case study for understanding the applicability of the Theory of Regulation and the Economic Theory of Regulatory Constraint to a common regulatory process in Federal Indian Law.
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Richard, Gina Dawn. "Radical Cartographies: Relational Epistemologies and Principles for Successful Indigenous Cartographic Praxis." Diss., The University of Arizona, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/578886.

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Indigenous cartography is based on a relational epistemology that works within a system where "place" and "ways of knowing" are intimately tied to Native communities' notions of kinship, oral tradition, and traditional ecological knowledge acquired over the millennia. It brings to life a place where mapping and geography cease to be simply Cartesian coordinates on a Euclidean plane and instead become storied landscapes. Indigenous cartography can be described as "radical" because it represents a departure from traditional Western ways of mapping and affirms an Indigenous political, economic and cultural sovereignty. As an intensely political act, Indigenous cartography can be an important tool used by Indigenous people to assert sovereignty in a bottom-up approach to land claims, in the management of cultural resources, and even to claim human remains for repatriation and reburial. If Indigenous groups wish to successfully utilize geospatial technologies as legal strategies, it will first require the development of the necessary infrastructure and training of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) specialists from within. In much the same way that colonial practices of the past worked to achieve hegemony through the making of political and cultural boundaries, Indigenous cartography can work to dismantle these same colonial boundaries. A theory and methodology of Indigenous cartographic praxis is in use among some First Nations in British Columbia. However no "best practices" yet exist for the Indigenous use-and-mapping discipline. Consequently in the United States, Indigenous mapping is still considered an emerging approach. Therefore, can American Indian political and cultural sovereignty be supported by the implementation of Indigenous geospatial technologies? This dissertation will examine the British Columbian model and distill principles that can be successfully implemented by U. S. Native American communities who wish to develop capacity for this emerging geospatial technology based on the success of the First Nations model.
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Weatherford, Jessica A. "A Hard Kick between His Blue Blue Eyes: The Decolonizing Potential of Indigenous Rage in Sherman Alexie’s “The Business of Fancydancing” and “Indian Killer”." Ohio University / OhioLINK, 2009. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=ohiou1250789641.

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Anderson, Joshua Tyler Anderson. "The Bodies Belong to No One: Missing and Murdered Indigenous Men in Literature and Law, 1934-2010." The Ohio State University, 2018. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=osu1531047437469823.

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Wheeler, Leah. "Wǝ́xa Sxwuqwálustn : pulling together identity, community, and cohesion in the Cowlitz Indian tribe." Thesis, University of Essex, 2017. http://repository.essex.ac.uk/19230/.

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In the last 30 years many changes have taken place within the Cowlitz Indian Tribe. These changes involve the tribe’s sovereignty and have greatly impacted the emic identity of the tribe. Previous identity research with the Cowlitz predates these changes and no longer accurately describe the Cowlitz. The question for this research was how have these changes affected the emic identity of the Cowlitz today as seen in their community and interactions? And how does their identity now compare with their identity in the times of pre-contact and initial contact with whites? This research uses Manuel DeLanda’s assemblage theory to assess and compare the emic identity of the contemporary and historical tribe in terms of sovereignty, identity, and cultural rejuvenation. When the structure, relationships, activities, and purposes of the tribe and groups within the contemporary tribe were analyzed, there was a striking resemblance to the community system described in early settler journals and histories of the Cowlitz. The research was cross-sectional, including ethnographic study, interviews of tribal members, document analysis, and historical analysis. In an attempt to allow the Cowlitz people to speak for themselves rather than project ideas onto the tribe, each section of the research first allows tribal members to voice their opinions and then relies on Cowlitz voices to confirm the analysis. The final dissertation was then submitted to the tribe for comment.
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Ribeiro, Moacir Ferreira. "Formação de professores e temática indígena: uma história de hibridismo cultural." Pontifícia Universidade Católica de São Paulo, 2012. https://tede2.pucsp.br/handle/handle/10379.

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Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-27T16:32:42Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Moacir Ferreira Ribeiro.pdf: 9250314 bytes, checksum: 8f1b8ea7e979f11f824253711a361094 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-09-25
Our interest in developing this research was raised by the Brazilian Federal Law No.11,645/08, which determines the mandatory inclusion of African-Brazilian and Indian History and Culture studies in the official curriculum of elementary and secondary schools. This paper aims at analyzing and describing the actions taken by various educational institutions in São Paulo metropolitan area in order to effectively include the subject of this law in the curriculums, specifically the issue of Indian history and culture. Our research focused on continuing teacher education courses provided by the aforementioned institutions from 2011 to 2012 by analyzing and describing how they were built and who were the people involved in them. When analyzing these courses, we considered the proposed innovations, and the controversy that the subject raises in the teaching of History. Our methodological procedures in studying the law and its effects on the curriculum were based on Canclini, Gatti, Fernandes, Gomes, Ghon, Hobsbawn, Forquin and Goodson. Canen and Moreira, Candau and Tardif were reference in continuing teacher education. The analysis of the courses was based on different documentary sources, such as notices, syllabi, contracts etc, and on the works of Ribeiro, Sacristán and Gomez, Todorov and Vidal. We structured questionnaires based on the work of Triviños and distributed them to the people involved in the process in order to know them better and to identify their point of view on the issue. We have found that the obedience to the law, at best, consists of a poor effort to create the respect for ethnic diversity in education
O interesse em desenvolver essa pesquisa surgiu com a Lei Federal Nº 11.645/08, que estabelece as diretrizes e bases da educação brasileira para incluir no currículo oficial das redes de ensino a obrigatoriedade da temática História e Cultura Afro-Brasileira e Indígena . O estudo aqui relatado possui a finalidade de investigar e descrever as ações que os mais variados órgãos de ensino da Capital e Grande São Paulo, têm promovido para efetivar essa lei nos currículos, especificamente, no tocante à História e Cultura Indígena. A pesquisa privilegiou os cursos de formação continuada oferecidos por esses órgãos entre os anos de 2011 e 2012, trazendo como foco central de análise a descrição de como têm sido realizados e quais os diversos sujeitos envolvidos. Buscou-se caracterizar essa especificidade de formação considerando as pressupostas inovações curriculares inerentes a um tema polêmico, principalmente, na área do ensino da História. Os procedimentos metodológicos para a análise da lei e suas imbricações nos currículos, tem como base os suportes teóricos de autores como Canclini, Gatti, Fernandes, Gomes, Ghon, Hobsbawn, Forquin e Goodson. Com relação à formação continuada de professores foram utilizados os referenciais teóricos de Canen e Moreira, Candau e Tardif. A análise dos cursos baseou-se em fontes documentais diversas (editais, ementas de cursos, contratos etc.) e autores como Ribeiro, Sacristán e Gomez, Todorov e Vidal. Para identificar quem são os sujeitos envolvidos nesses processos e quais as diferentes visões que possuem, a metodologia se deu pela distribuição de questionários semiestruturados com base no referencial teórico de Triviños. Esse todo articulado, permitiu constatar que o cumprimento da lei nos órgãos de ensino, quando muito, se trata de um esforço tênue para a construção de uma educação centrada no respeito à diversidade étnica.
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Books on the topic "Federal Indian law"

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United States. Dept. of the Interior. Office of the Solicitor. Federal Indian law. Clark, NJ: The Lawbook Exchange, 2008.

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Clinton, Robert N. American Indian law: Native nations and the federal system : selected federal Indian law provisions. 4th ed. Newark, NJ: LexisNexis, 2004.

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Cohen's handbook of federal Indian law. 2nd ed. San Francisco, California: LexisNexis, 2012.

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1941-, Wilkinson Charles F., and Williams Robert A. 1955-, eds. Cases and materials on Federal Indian law. 3rd ed. St. Paul, Minn: West Pub. Co., 1993.

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1941-, Wilkinson Charles F., and Williams Robert A. 1955-, eds. Cases and materials on federal Indian law. 4th ed. St. Paul, Minn: West Group, 1998.

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1941-, Wilkinson Charles F., and Williams Robert A. 1955-, eds. Cases and materials on federal Indian law. 5th ed. St. Paul, MN: Thomson/West, 2005.

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1941-, Wilkinson Charles F., ed. Cases and materials on Federal Indian law. 2nd ed. St. Paul, Minn: West Pub. Co., 1986.

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Cases and materials on Federal Indian Law. 6th ed. St. Paul, MN: Thomson/West, 2011.

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Jordan, K. Forbis. Federal Indian education programs. [Washington, D.C.]: Library of Congress, Congressional Research Service, Major Issues System, 1987.

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Wilkins, David E. Uneven ground: American Indian sovereignty and federal law. Norman: University of Oklahoma Press, 2001.

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Book chapters on the topic "Federal Indian law"

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Reinhard-DeRoo, Matthias. "Fundamental Aspects of Federal Indian Law." In Beneficial Ownership, 81–111. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-01686-3_6.

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Reinhard-DeRoo, Matthias. "The Beneficial Ownership Concept Applied in Federal Indian Law." In Beneficial Ownership, 113–44. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-01686-3_7.

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Knowles, F. E. "Canons of Construction in Federal Indian Law in US Jurisprudence." In Global Encyclopedia of Territorial Rights, 1–3. Cham: Springer International Publishing, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-68846-6_524-1.

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Deer, Sarah. "Federal Indian Law and Violent Crime." In Color of Violence, 32–41. Duke University Press, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1220mvs.6.

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Resnik, Judith. "Dependent Sovereigns: Indian Tribes, States, and the Federal Courts." In Reading American Indian Law, 311–33. Cambridge University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781108770804.019.

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Clinton, Robert N. "There Is No Federal Supremacy Clause for Indian Tribes." In Reading American Indian Law, 334–56. Cambridge University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781108770804.020.

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"3 Federal Indian Law and Violent Crime." In Color of Violence, 32–41. Duke University Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/9780822373445-005.

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Frickey, Philip P. "Marshalling Past and Present: Colonialism, Constitutionalism, and Interpretation in Federal Indian Law." In Reading American Indian Law, 23–46. Cambridge University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/9781108770804.004.

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Piatote, Beth H. "Signs of Authority in Indian Country." In Looking for Law in All the Wrong Places, 85–100. Fordham University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.5422/fordham/9780823283712.003.0005.

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The Indian reservation is a place where multiple forms of law-federal, tribal, and state-create both gaps and overlaps of rules and jurisdictions, at times in accord and at times in contest. Analysis of an ethnographic photograph of women from the Yakama Nation in front of a sign marking one of their reservation's internal boundaries reveals how their defense of indigenous law also invokes multiple forms of tribal, state, and federal law. The federal jurisdiction asserted by this sign at a border within the reservation, warning away sport hunters and fishers, is doubled and thereby decentered by the postures, dress, and tools held up by the women. They base their claim to the land ("Do Not Enter") not on state law, but in practices of indigenous law-with its own expressions of property rights and claims to authority-reflected in the elements of the photograph.
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Ablavsky, Gregory. "Laws of War and Peace." In Federal Ground, 139–68. Oxford University Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780190905699.003.0006.

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Alongside individual murders and crimes, the federal government also confronted in the territories a long-standing borderlands law governing organized violence. Both Natives and whites there conducted larger-scale, often brutal expeditions against each other, often with little or no formal authorization from their ostensible governments. The federal government sought to replace this seemingly pathological culture of violence by imposing a definition of war drawn from the newly adopted U.S. Constitution that made the federal government, and particularly Congress, the sole arbiter and source of legitimate violence against Native nations. The effects of this federal assertion of supremacy differed in the two territories. In the Northwest Territory, the conflict known as the Northwest Indian War expanded earlier practices of borderlands violence under federal auspices. Citizens of the Southwest Territory demanded the same, and nearly got it, in what this chapter terms the war-that-nearly-was. What actually followed in the Southwest Territory instead was an intense, polyvocal legal contest between territorial citizens and officials, Congress, the Washington administration, and the Creek, Cherokee, and Chickasaw Nations over the meaning of the categories of war and peace. Yet again, federal officials failed to establish federal supremacy, but they did succeed in insinuating federal law into territorial life and Indian country, including disputes between Native nations.
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Conference papers on the topic "Federal Indian law"

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Yurchenko, S. A., and T. L. Korotenko. "Screening of the rice gene pool for tolerance to environmental stressors." In CURRENT STATE, PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF AGRARIAN SCIENCE. Federal State Budget Scientific Institution “Research Institute of Agriculture of Crimea”, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.33952/2542-0720-2020-5-9-10-83.

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The genetic diversity of the species O. sativa from the collection of the Federal Research Center for Rice was assessed for tolerance to stress factors: low positive temperatures during germination and drought during the flowering phase in Kuban. 120 varieties from Russia, Philippines, China, Vietnam, Thailand and India were studied. Fifteen cold-resistant rice varieties and 22 drought tolerant forms were identified
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Canós Darós, Lourdes, A. Barbosa da Silva, M. R. Perelló Marín, A. L. Lima de Araujo Coelho, and C. Santandreu-Mascarell. "Los vínculos entre estilos de aprendizaje y estrategias de motivación de estudiantes de Grado en Brasil y España." In INNODOCT 2018. València: Editorial Universitat Politècnica de València, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.4995/inn2018.2018.8819.

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En este trabajo se realiza un análisis de los vínculos entre los estilos de aprendizaje y las estrategas de motivación de estudiantes de Grado de Administración y Dirección de Empresas de la Universidade Federal da Paraíba en Brasil y la Universitat Politècnica de València en España. Para ello, se encuestaron a un total de 106 estudiantes de los últimos cursos de Grado utilizando el inventario de los estilos de aprendizaje de David Kolb (1984) y las estratégias de motivación del MSLQ (Motivated Strategies for Learning Questionaire) de Pintrich et al. (1993), que contiene las siguientes componentes y subescalas: Valor (orientación intrínseca, orientación extrínseca, valor de la tarea), Expectativas (control sobre las creencias y autoeficacia) y Emoción (test de ansiedad). Los datos se analizaron obteniendo resultados descriptivos y de comparación de medias con muestras independientes y análisis de varianza. La primera sección de los resultados presenta el perfil de la muestra de los dos entornos investigados. Además, se muestran los resultados de los estilos de aprendizaje de los estudiantes por país y el desarrollo de las habilidades que forman los estilos. A continuación, se presenta un análisis de las estrategias de motivación. Los resultados indican diferencias en las estratégias de motivación intrínseca y valor de la tarea, así como que los estudiantes brasileños presentan mayores medias para estas dos dimensiones. Los niveles de ansiedad de los estudiantes en los dos países fueron bajos, con un índice de 3,18 para los estudiantes brasileños y 3,11 para los estudiantes españoles, siendo el valor máximo posible 7. Los resultados de la encuesta revelaron que no hay diferencias significativas entre las estrategias de motivación y los estilos de aprendizaje.
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Prabhune, Prajakta, Anindya Deb, and G. Balasubramani. "Simulation Methodology for Occupant Safety Assessment of Indian Railway Passenger Coach." In 2018 Joint Rail Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/jrc2018-6189.

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This work intends to lay the groundwork for Computer Aided Engineering (CAE)-based occupant safety of a typical tier-III Indian Railway (IR) passenger coach in a collision accident. Our previous work presented in International Crashworthiness Conference 2010 under the title “Simulation of Crash Behaviour of a Common Indian Railway Passenger Coach” provided crashworthiness assessment of a typical tier-III passenger coach structure for representative head-on collision scenarios namely, against an identical passenger coach and against a stationary locomotive. These scenarios were envisioned to be part of a bigger accident scenario e.g - head-on collision between two trains moving towards each other. Analysis of involved chain of events for entire rolling stock and resulting internal collisions between individual passenger cars was out of scope of this work and necessary inputs were obtained from available literature on the same. This work used a full scale Finite Element (FE) simulation model and commercial explicit solver LS-Dyna. FE model was validated using International Railway Union (UIC) code OR566 specified proof loads for design. Simulation methodology used for dynamic impact was validated by component level crushing experiments using a drop tower facility. Material modelling incorporated strain rate effect on yield strength which is essential for obtaining accurate structural deformations under dynamic impact loading. Contacts were modelled using the penalty method option provided by the solver. This model was simulated for collisions at 30, 40 and 56 km/h against a stationary rigid barrier. Collision speeds were chosen to simulate impact energies involved in collision scenarios as mentioned above. The structure was found to exhibit global bending deformation and jackknifing with pivot position at the door section. In this paper, we present an extension of this work — coupled occupant safety simulation and injury assessment. It was accomplished by recording head, neck, chest and knee responses of a Hybrid-III 50th percentile male Anthropomorphic Test Device (ATD) FE model, seated in passenger position on lower berth of the first cabin of a passenger car. Interiors were modelled to represent the actual structure. Dummy model was adapted to passenger cabin’s excessive mobility conditions and responses were revalidated against Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS) limits. Injury interpretation was based on Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS), automotive injury criteria and injury risk curves for Head Injury Criterion (HIC), thoracic spine acceleration, neck bending moment in flexion and extension and knee force. This study provides with estimates of injury and fatality based on computer simulation of accident scenarios. However, attempts of correlating to any available injury and fatality statistics were out of scope of this study.
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4

Vega-Araya, Mauricio. "Monitoreo de los efectos de los incendios forestales mediante el uso de sensores remotos en el Área de Conservación Guanacaste, Costa Rica." In I Congreso Internacional de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Universidad Nacional, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.15359/cicen.1.74.

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La Tierra y su biosfera están cambiando constantemente, por lo tanto, es fundamental detectar los cambios con el fin de entender su impacto en los ecosistemas terrestres. Los esquemas de monitoreo de ecosistemas han evolucionado rápidamente en las ultimas décadas. En el caso del monitoreo forestal, los métodos y herramientas que facilitan la utilización de imágenes satelitales permiten realizar este monitoreo con el cual se puede detectar donde y cuando un bosque es eliminado o afectado debido a un evento de deforestación o bien de fuego, lo anterior casi en tiempo real. Estas nuevas herramientas están disponibles para su implementación, sin embargo, ningún paı́s de la región centroamericana y el Caribe ha implementado un sistema como herramienta de decisión dentro de una estructura de gobierno central o federal debido a la ausencia de programas de transferencia de tecnologı́a o programas de capacitación de talento local. Los sensores remotos proporcionan mediciones consistentes y repetibles que permiten la captura de los efectos de muchos procesos que causan el cambio, incluyendo, por ejemplo, incendios, ataques de insectos, agentes de cambio naturales y antropogénicas como por ejemplo, la deforestación, la urbanización, la agricultura, etc. Las series temporales de imágenes de satélite proporcionan maneras para detectar y vigilar cambios en el tiempo y en el espacio, esto consistentemente durante los últimos 30 años a nivel mundial. Los incendios forestales afectan el proceso de sucesión del bosque, no obstante, es muy limitada la existencia de estudios locales que relacionen el efecto de los incendios forestales con las diferencias en la información espectral a partir de sensoramiento remoto. En el presente estudio se plantea y propone la utilización y aprovechamiento de lo que se ha denominado grandes datos, especialmente con el advenimiento muchas plataformas de sensores remotos como Landsat, MODIS y recientemente Sentinel, para identificar cuál es el efecto de los incendios forestales en la sucesión y sus elementos perturbadores, como por ejemplo, la presencia de lianas. Se procesaron las series temporales se usó la plataforma digital Google Earth Engine, que permitió la selección y reducción de la información espacial de los ı́ndices de vegetación en tendencia, estacionalidad y residuos. Se analizó la respuesta de estos ı́ndices en sitios con diferente afectación por incendios forestales. Con estos índices se pretende desarrollar modelos de clasificación de series espaciales de tiempo de los ı́ndices y poder ası́ comprender los cambios en el tiempo y el espacio de los ecosistemas afectados por incendios forestales. Preliminarmente, se encontró una relación entre la incidencia de los incendios forestales y el fenómeno del Niño-Oscilación del Sur para el índice de vegetación denominado índice de área foliar. Además, la evidencia indica que el índice normalizado de vegetación si presenta diferencias respecto a los sitios que tienen un historial de fuegos diferente. El establecer esta relación implica estudiar también los regı́menes de precipitación y temperatura. El descomponer las series de tiempo facilitó la correlación con otras series de tiempo, permitiendo establecer las bases de un monitoreo y a su vez, relacionar las índices de vegetación y su variación con otros elementos climáticos, como por ejemplo, el efecto ENOS.
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Schneider, Jerry, Jeffrey Wagner, and Judy Connell. "Restoring Public Trust While Tearing Down Site in Rural Ohio." In The 11th International Conference on Environmental Remediation and Radioactive Waste Management. ASMEDC, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/icem2007-7319.

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In the mid-1980s, the impact of three decades of uranium processing near rural Fernald, Ohio, 18 miles northwest of Cincinnati, became the centre of national public controversy. When a series of incidents at the uranium foundry brought to light the years of contamination to the environment and surrounding farmland communities, local citizens’ groups united and demanded a role in determining the plans for cleaning up the site. One citizens’ group, Fernald Residents for Environmental Safety and Health (FRESH), formed in 1984 following reports that nearly 300 pounds of enriched uranium oxide had been released from a dust-collector system, and three off-property wells south of the site were contaminated with uranium. For 22 years, FRESH monitored activities at Fernald and participated in the decision-making process with management and regulators. The job of FRESH ended on 19 January this year when the U.S. Secretary of Energy Samuel Bodman and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Stephen Johnson — flanked by local, state, and national elected officials, and citizen-led environmental watchdog groups including FRESH — officially declared the Fernald Site clean of all nuclear contamination and open to public access. It marked the end of a remarkable turnaround in public confidence and trust that had attracted critical reports from around the world: the Cincinnati Enquirer; U.S. national news programs 60 Minutes, 20/20, Nightline, and 48 Hours; worldwide media outlets from the British Broadcasting Company and Canadian Broadcasting Company; Japanese newspapers; and German reporters. When personnel from Fluor arrived in 1992, the management team thought it understood the issues and concerns of each stakeholder group, and was determined to implement the decommissioning scope of work aggressively, confident that stakeholders would agree with its plans. This approach resulted in strained relationships with opinion leaders during the early months of Fluor’s contract. To forge better relationships, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) who owns the site, and Fluor embarked on three new strategies based on engaging citizens and interested stakeholder groups in the decision-making process. The first strategy was opening communication channels with site leadership, technical staff, and regulators. This strategy combined a strong public-information program with two-way communications between management and the community, soliciting and encouraging stakeholder participation early in the decision-making process. Fluor’s public-participation strategy exceeded the “check-the-box” approach common within the nuclear-weapons complex, and set a national standard that stands alone today. The second stakeholder-engagement strategy sprang from mending fences with the regulators and the community. The approach for dispositioning low-level waste was a 25-year plan to ship it off the site. Working with stakeholders, DOE and Fluor were able to convince the community to accept a plan to safely store waste permanently on site, which would save 15 years of cleanup and millions of dollars in cost. The third strategy addressed the potentially long delays in finalizing remedial action plans due to formal public comment periods and State and Federal regulatory approvals. Working closely with the U.S. and Ohio Environmental Protection Agencies (EPA) and other stakeholders, DOE and Fluor were able to secure approvals of five Records of Decision on time – a first for the DOE complex. Developing open and honest relationships with union leaders, the workforce, regulators and community groups played a major role in DOE and Fluor cleaning up and closing the site. Using lessons learned at Fernald, DOE was able to resolve challenges at other sites, including worker transition, labour disputes, and damaged relationships with regulators and the community. It took significant time early in the project to convince the workforce that their future lay in cleanup, not in holding out hope for production to resume. It took more time to repair relationships with Ohio regulators and the local community. Developing these relationships over the years required constant, open communications between site decision makers and stakeholders to identify issues and to overcome potential barriers. Fluor’s open public-participation strategy resulted in stakeholder consensus of five remedial-action plans that directed Fernald cleanup. This strategy included establishing a public-participation program that emphasized a shared-decision making process and abandoned the government’s traditional, non-participatory “Decide, Announce, Defend” approach. Fernald’s program became a model within the DOE complex for effective public participation. Fluor led the formation of the first DOE site-specific advisory board dedicated to remediation and closure. The board was successful at building consensus on critical issues affecting long-term site remediation, such as cleanup levels, waste disposal and final land use. Fluor created innovative public outreach tools, such as “Cleanopoly,” based on the Monopoly game, to help illustrate complex concepts, including risk levels, remediation techniques, and associated costs. These innovative tools helped DOE and Fluor gain stakeholder consensus on all cleanup plans. To commemorate the outstanding commitment of Fernald stakeholders to this massive environmental-restoration project, Fluor donated $20,000 to build the Weapons to Wetlands Grove overlooking the former 136-acre production area. The grove contains 24 trees, each dedicated to “[a] leader(s) behind the Fernald cleanup.” Over the years, Fluor, through the Fluor Foundation, also invested in educational and humanitarian projects, contributing nearly $2 million to communities in southwestern Ohio, Kentucky and Indiana. Further, to help offset the economic impact of the site’s closing to the community, DOE and Fluor promoted economic development in the region by donating excess equipment and property to local schools and townships. This paper discusses the details of the public-involvement program — from inception through maturity — and presents some lessons learned that can be applied to other similar projects.
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Reports on the topic "Federal Indian law"

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Kusiak, Chris, Mark D. Bowman, and Arun Prakash. Legal and Permit Loads Evaluation for Indiana Bridges. Purdue University, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.5703/1288284317267.

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According to federal law, routine commercial vehicles must adhere to certain limits on their load configuration in order to operate legally on interstate highways. However, states may allow for heavier or different load configurations provided that bridges on the state and county highway system are load rated and, if necessary, posted with vehicles that appropriately represent these loads. The state of Indiana allows several classes of vehicles to operate with loads that exceed federal limits, and, presently, several LFD design loads are used to represent these exceptions as state legal loads. This study evaluates the MBE rating loads for their ability to encompass Indiana’s exception vehicles and recommends a set of state rating loads which can replace the current state legal loads and, combined with the MBE rating loads, satisfactorily encompass the load effects due to these exceptions. Comparing moment and shear envelopes on a representative set of bridges, the MBE rating vehicles were found to be insufficient for representing Indiana’s exception vehicles. Three new rating loads are proposed which encompass the exception vehicles efficiently and represent realistic legal loads. Conversely, acceptable HS-20 rating factors are also provided as an alternative to the adoption of these new vehicles. These rating factors, all 1.0 or greater, can ensure a similar level of safety by requiring a specific amount of excess capacity for the HS-20 design load.
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Vargas-Herrera, Hernando, Juan José Ospina, Carlos Alfonso Huertas-Campos, Adolfo León Cobo-Serna, Edgar Caicedo-García, Juan Pablo Cote-Barón, Nicolás Martínez-Cortés, et al. Informe de Política Monetaria - Julio de 2021. Banco de la República de Colombia, August 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr3.-2021.

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1.1 Resumen macroeconómico En el segundo trimestre la economía enfrentó varios choques, principalmente de oferta y de costos, la mayoría de los cuales no fueron anticipados, o los previstos fueron más persistentes de lo esperado, y que en conjunto interrumpieron la recuperación de la actividad económica observada a comienzos de año y llevaron la inflación total a niveles superiores a la meta. La inflación básica (sin alimentos ni regulados: SAR) aumentó, pero se mantuvo baja y acorde con lo esperado por el equipo técnico. A comienzos de abril se inició una tercera ola de pandemia, más acentuada y prolongada que la anterior, con un elevado costo en vidas humanas y algún impacto negativo en la recuperación económica. Entre mayo y mediados de junio los bloqueos de las carreteras y los problemas de orden público tuvieron un fuerte efecto negativo sobre la actividad económica y la inflación. Se estima que la magnitud de estos dos choques combinados habría generado una caída en niveles en el producto interno bruto (PIB) con respecto al primer trimestre del año. Adicionalmente, los bloqueos causaron un aumento significativo de los precios de los alimentos. A estos choques se sumaron los efectos acumulados de la disrupción global en algunas cadenas de valor y el incremento en los fletes internacionales que desde finales de 2020 vienen generando restricciones de oferta y aumentos de costos. Todos estos factores, que afectaron principalmente el índice de precios al consumidor (IPC) de bienes y de alimentos, explicaron la mayor parte del error de pronóstico del equipo técnico y el aumento de la inflación total a niveles superiores a la meta del 3 %. El incremento en la inflación básica y de los precios de los regulados fue acorde con lo esperado por el equipo técnico, y se explica principalmente por la eliminación de varios alivios de precios otorgados un año atrás. A todo esto se suma la mayor percepción de riesgo soberano y las presiones al alza que esto implica sobre el costo de financiamiento externo y la tasa de cambio. A pesar de los fuertes choques negativos, el crecimiento económico esperado para la primera mitad del año (9,1%), es significativamente mayor que lo proyectado en el informe de abril (7,1%), signo de una economía más dinámica que se recuperaría más rápido de lo previsto. Desde finales de 2020 las diferentes cifras de actividad económica han mostrado un crecimiento mayor que el esperado. Esto sugiere que los efectos negativos sobre el producto de las recurrentes olas de contagio estarían siendo cada vez menos fuertes y duraderos. No obstante, la tercera ola de contagio del Covid-19, y en mayor medida los bloqueos a las vías y los problemas de orden público, habrían generado una caída del PIB durante el segundo trimestre, frente al primero. Pese a lo anterior, los datos del índice de seguimiento a la economía (ISE) de abril y mayo han resultado mayores que lo esperado, y las nuevas cifras de actividad económica sectoriales sugieren que el impacto negativo de la pandemia sobre el producto se sigue moderando, en un entorno de menores restricciones a la movilidad y de mayor avance en el ritmo de vacunación. Los registros de transporte de carga (junio) y la demanda de energía no regulada (julio), entre otros, indican una recuperación importante después de los bloqueos en mayo. Con todo lo anterior, el incremento anual del PIB del segundo trimestre se habría situado alrededor del 17,3 % (antes 15,8 %), explicado en gran parte por una base baja de comparación. Para todo 2021 el equipo técnico incrementó su proyección de crecimiento desde un 6 % hasta el 7,5 %. Este pronóstico, que está rodeado de una incertidumbre inusualmente elevada, supone que no se presentarán problemas de orden público y que posibles nuevas olas de contagio del Covid-19 no tendrán efectos negativos adicionales sobre la actividad económica. Frente al pronóstico del informe pasado, la recuperación de la demanda externa, los niveles de precios de algunos bienes básicos que exporta el país y la dinámica de las remesas de trabajadores han sido mejores que las esperadas y seguirían impulsando la recuperación del ingreso nacional en lo que resta del año. A esto se sumaría la aún amplia liquidez internacional, la aceleración en el proceso de vacunación y las bajas tasas de interés, factores que continuarían favoreciendo la actividad económica. La mejor dinámica del primer semestre, que llevó a una revisión al alza en el crecimiento de todos los componentes del gasto, continuaría hacia adelante y, antes de lo esperado en abril, la economía recuperaría los niveles de producción de 2019 a finales de 2021. El pronóstico continúa incluyendo efectos de corto plazo sobre la demanda agregada de una reforma tributaria de magnitud similar a la proyectada por el Gobierno. Con todo eso, en el escenario central de este informe, el pronóstico de crecimiento para 2021 es del 7,5 % y para 2022 del 3,1 %. A pesar de esto, el nivel de la actividad económica seguiría siendo inferior a su potencial. La mejora en estas proyecciones, sin embargo, está rodeada de una alta incertidumbre. En junio la inflación anual (3,63 %) aumentó más de lo esperado debido al comportamiento del grupo de alimentos, mientras que la inflación básica (1,87 %) fue similar a la proyectada. En lo que resta del año el mayor nivel del IPC de alimentos persistiría y contribuiría a mantener la inflación por encima de la meta. A finales de 2022 la inflación total y básica retornarían a tasas cercanas al 3 %, en un entorno de desaceleración del IPC de alimentos y de menores excesos de capacidad productiva. En los meses recientes el aumento en los precios internacionales de los fletes y de los bienes agrícolas, y las mayores exportaciones de carne y el ciclo ganadero han ejercido presiones al alza sobre el precio de los alimentos, principalmente de los procesados. A estas fuerzas persistentes se sumaron los bloqueos de las vías nacionales y los problemas de orden público en varias ciudades registrados en mayo y parte de junio, los cuales se reflejaron en una fuerte restricción en la oferta y en un aumento anual no esperado del IPC de alimentos (8,52 %). El grupo de regulados (5,93 %) también se aceleró, debido a la baja base de comparación en los precios de la gasolina y a la disolución de parte de los alivios a las tarifas de servicios públicos otorgados en 2020. Como se proyectaba, la inflación SAR repuntó al 1,87 %, debido a la reactivación de los impuestos indirectos de algunos bienes y servicios eliminados un año atrás, y por las presiones al alza que ejercieron los alimentos sobre las comidas fuera del hogar (CFH), entre otros. En lo que resta del año se espera que el aumento en los alimentos perecederos se revierta, siempre y cuando no se registren nuevos bloqueos duraderos a las vías nacionales. El mayor nivel de precios de los alimentos procesados persistiría y contribuiría a mantener la inflación por encima de la meta a finales de año. La inflación SAR continuaría con una tendencia creciente, en la medida en que los excesos de capacidad productiva se sigan cerrando y registraría un aumento transitorio en marzo de 2022, debido principalmente al restablecimiento del impuesto al consumo en las CFH. Con todo esto, para finales de 2021 y 2022 se estima una inflación total del 4,1 % y 3,1 %, y una inflación básica del 2,6 % y 3,2 %, respectivamente. El comportamiento conjunto de los precios del IPC SAR, junto con continuas sorpresas al alza en la actividad económica, son interpretados por el equipo técnico como señales de amplios excesos de capacidad productiva de la economía. Estos persistirían en los siguientes dos años, al final de los cuales la brecha del producto se cerraría. El mayor crecimiento económico sugiere una brecha del producto menos negativa que la estimada hace un trimestre. Sin embargo, el comportamiento de la inflación básica, especialmente en servicios, indica que el PIB potencial se ha recuperado de forma sorpresiva y que los excesos de capacidad siguen siendo amplios, con una demanda agregada afectada de forma persistente. Esta interpretación encuentra soporte en el mercado laboral, en donde persiste un desempleo alto y la recuperación de los empleos perdidos se estancó. Adicionalmente, los aumentos en la inflación en buena medida están explicados por choques de oferta y de costos y por la disolución de algunos alivios de precios otorgados un año atrás. Los pronósticos de crecimiento y de inflación descritos son coherentes con una brecha del producto que se cierra más rápido y es menos negativa en todo el horizonte de pronóstico con respecto al informe de abril. No obstante, la incertidumbre sobre los excesos de capacidad es muy alta y es un riesgo sobre el pronóstico. Las perspectivas de las cuentas fiscales de Colombia se deterioraron, Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings (S&P) y Fitch Ratings (Fitch) redujeron su calificación crediticia, los bloqueos y problemas de orden público afectaron el producto y el país enfrentó una nueva ola de contagios de Covid-19 más acentuada y prolongada que las pasadas. Todo lo anterior se ha reflejado en un aumento de las primas de riesgo y en una depreciación del peso frente al dólar. Esto ha ocurrido en un entorno favorable de ingresos externos. Los precios internacionales del petróleo, del café y de otros bienes básicos que exporta el país aumentaron y han contribuido a la recuperación de los términos de intercambio y del ingreso nacional, y han mitigado las presiones al alza sobre las primas de riesgo y la tasa de cambio. En el presente informe se incrementó el precio esperado del petróleo para 2021 a USD 68 por barril (antes USD 61 bl) y para 2022 a USD 66 bl (antes USD 60 bl). Esta mayor senda presenta una convergencia hacia precios menores que los observados recientemente, como resultado de una mayor oferta mundial esperada de petróleo, la cual más que compensaría el incremento en la demanda de este bien básico. Por ende, se supone que el aumento reciente de los precios tiene un carácter transitorio. En el escenario macroeconómico actual se espera que las condiciones financieras internacionales sean algo menos favorables, a pesar de la mejora en los ingresos externos por cuenta de una mayor demanda y unos precios del petróleo y de otros productos de exportación más altos. Frente al informe de abril el crecimiento de la demanda externa fue mejor que el esperado, y las proyecciones para 2021 y 2022 aumentaron del 5,2 % al 6,0 % y del 3,4 % al 3,5 %, respectivamente. En lo corrido del año las cifras de actividad económica muestran una demanda externa más dinámica de la esperada. En los Estados Unidos y China la recuperación del producto ha sido más rápida que la registrada en los países de la región. En estos últimos la reactivación económica ha estado limitada por los rebrotes del Covid-19, las limitaciones en la oferta de vacunas y el poco espacio fiscal para enfrentar la pandemia, entre otros factores. La buena dinámica en el comercio externo de bienes se ha dado en un entorno de deterioro en las cadenas de valor y de un aumento importante en los precios de las materias primas y en el costo de los fletes. En los Estados Unidos la inflación sorprendió al alza y su valor observado y esperado se mantiene por encima de la meta, al tiempo que se incrementó la proyección de crecimiento económico. Con esto, el inicio de la normalización de la política monetaria en ese país se daría antes de lo proyectado. En este informe se estima que el primer incremento en la tasa de interés de la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos se dé a finales de 2022 (antes del primer trimestre de 2023). Para Colombia se supone una mayor prima de riesgo frente al informe de abril y se sigue esperando que presente una tendencia creciente, dada la acumulación de deuda pública y externa del país. Todo esto contribuiría a un incremento en el costo del financiamiento externo en el horizonte de pronóstico. La postura expansiva de la política monetaria sigue soportando unas condiciones financieras internas favorables. En el segundo trimestre la tasa de interés interbancaria y el índice bancario de referencia (IBR) se han mantenido acordes con la tasa de interés de política. Las tasas de interés promedio de captación y crédito continuaron históricamente bajas, a pesar de algunos incrementos observados a finales de junio. La cartera en moneda nacional detuvo su desaceleración anual y, entre marzo y junio, el crédito a los hogares se aceleró, principalmente para compra de vivienda. La recuperación de la cartera comercial y de los desembolsos a ese sector fue importante, y se alcanzó de nuevo el elevado saldo observado un año atrás, cuando las empresas requirieron niveles significativos de liquidez para enfrentar los efectos económicos de la pandemia. El riesgo de crédito aumentó, las provisiones se mantienes altas y algunos bancos han retirado de su balance una parte de su cartera vencida. No obstante, las utilidades del sistema financiero se han recuperado y sus niveles de liquidez y solvencia se mantienen por encima del mínimo regulatorio. A partir de este informe se implementará una nueva metodología para cuantificar y comunicar la incertidumbre que rodea los pronósticos del escenario macroeconómico central, en un entorno de política monetaria activa. Esta metodología se conoce como densidades predictivas (DP) y se explica en detalle en el Recuadro 1. Partiendo del balance de riesgos que contiene los principales factores que, de acuerdo con el juicio del equipo técnico, podrían afectar a la economía en el horizonte de pronóstico, la metodología DP produce distribuciones de probabilidad sobre el pronóstico de las principales variables (v. g.: crecimiento, inflación). Estas distribuciones reflejan el resultado de los posibles choques (a variables externas, precios y actividad económica) que podría recibir la economía y su transmisión, considerando la estructura económica y la respuesta de política monetaria en el futuro. En este sentido, permiten cuantificar la incertidumbre alrededor del pronóstico y su sesgo. El ejercicio DP muestra un sesgo a la baja en el crecimiento económico y en la brecha del producto, y al alza en la inflación. El balance de riesgos indica que las disyuntivas para la política monetaria serán potencialmente más complejas que lo contemplado en el pasado. Por el lado de las condiciones de financiamiento externo, se considera que el mayor riesgo es que se tornen un poco menos favorables, en un escenario en el cual la Reserva Federal de los Estados Unidos incremente con mayor prontitud su tasa de interés. Esto último, ante un crecimiento económico y del empleo mayor que el esperado en los Estados Unidos que genere presiones significativas sobre la inflación de ese país. A esto se suma la incertidumbre sobre el panorama fiscal en Colombia y sus efectos sobre la prima de riesgo y el costo del financiamiento externo. En el caso del crecimiento, la mayoría de los riesgos son a la baja, destacándose los efectos de la incertidumbre política y fiscal sobre las decisiones de consumo e inversión, la aparición de nuevas olas de contagio de la pandemia del Covid-19 y sus impactos sobre la actividad económica. En el caso de la inflación, se incorporó el riesgo de una mayor persistencia de los choques asociados con la disrupción de las cadenas de valor, mayores precios internacionales de las materias primas y de los alimentos, y una recuperación más lenta que la esperada de la cadena agrícola nacional afectada por los pasados bloqueos a las vías. Estos riesgos presionarían al alza principalmente los precios de los alimentos y de los bienes. Como principal riesgo a la baja se incluyó un alza de los arriendos menor que el esperado en el escenario central, explicada por una demanda débil y por una mayor oferta en 2022 dadas las altas ventas de vivienda observadas en el presente año. Con todo, el crecimiento económico presenta un sesgo a la baja y, con el 90 % de confianza, se encontraría entre un 6,1 % y 9,1 % para 2021 y entre el 0,5 % y 4,1 % para 2022. La brecha del producto tendría un sesgo a la baja, principalmente en 2022. El sesgo de la inflación es al alza, y se encontraría entre el 3,7 % y 4,9 % en 2021, y el 2,2 % y 4,7 % en 2022, con un 90 % de probabilidad. 1.2 Decisión de política monetaria En las reuniones de junio y julio la JDBR decidió mantener la tasa de política monetaria inalterada en 1,75 %.
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