Academic literature on the topic 'Felt hats'

Essential to both propriety and fashion, hats were a crucial aspect of British female dress and appearance in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. This article shows how British novelists of this period, ranging from mainstream to experimental, understood this importance. With appropriate contextualization, these literary depictions can illuminate how women wore and felt about their hats. Authors such as Frances Hodgson Burnett, Dorothy Whipple and Virginia Woolf used these accessories to explore social respectability and convention, the pleasures and challenges of following fashion, and consumption strategies among women. Despite the era's significant social changes, remarkable continuity exists in these literary representations of hats.

This article reflects the importance of wool in the life of traditional Kyrgyz society. The nomadic way of life provided them with everything they needed for daily life. Livestock, the main economic activity of the Kyrgyz, provided raw materials for livestock: wool, skins, horns, sheep skins and bones. The article describes the various characteristics and features of sheep’s wool. As a traditional knowledge of the Kyrgyz, its use in the treatment of fractures through wool, i. e. The importance of the medical aspect is established. Sheep’s wool is widely used in the manufacture of various household items, in the exterior and interior decoration of traditional yurts, and in the making of hats, clothes, and shoes. The technological method of shearing sheep to obtain high-quality wool, as well as the features of its preparation in the manufacture of Kyrgyz felt carpets (ala kiiz and shyrdak) are described in detail.

The purpose of this research is to know the benefits of tourism coast economy are felt directly by the local people in Meosmansar Subdistrict, Raja Ampat Regency. The case study taken from the local people of Arborek Village which is a tourism village that has hand-crafed in the form of woven hats and bags of leaf mats. The type of data in this study used qualitative data. The data sources used are primary data and secondary data. The data are collected through by observation, indepth interviews with the some of the interviewees and as well as documentation. The technique of determination of the informant used in this research is purposive sampling. The informants which is selected in this study are representative of the local government in this case the Tourism and Culture officer of Raja Ampat Regency as well as the local community whose doing business craftsmen woven hats and bags. The data are collected is analyzed using the concepts of economic benefits by Leiper. The results of this study found the presence of perceived economic benefit directly by the local communities from tourism sector. Keywords: Economic Benefit, Local Community, Plating Handcraft, Arborek Village

This article investigates gendered nationalist ideologies and their attendant myths and narratives in present-day Kyrgyzstan through an investigation of clothing items and practices. Clothes “speak volumes,” revealing tensions between gendered narratives of nationhood and various interpretations of what “proper” Kyrgyz femininities and masculinities should be. Clothing thus becomes both a sign and a site of the politics of identity, inscribing power relations and individual strategies of Kyrgyz men and women onto their bodies. Individual clothing choices and strategies take place within the general context of discursive struggles over what authentic and appropriate representations of Kyrgyzness should be. Thus, such clothing items as ak kalpak (conical felt hats) and the practice of Muslim women covering their head (hijab) acquire social and political meanings that stand for wider processes of identity contestations in the country.

Although this essay is about reading texts from the past, I begin with the present, with a US president who was elected despite widespread knowledge that he had infamously boasted about how he often starts kissing beautiful women without consent. “I don't even wait,” he crowed. “When you're a star they let you do it. You can do anything. Grab ’em by the pussy. You can do anything.” The internet was soon flooded with angry feminist responses to his crass admission of sexual violence, retorts that appropriated his use of vulgar language with wit and resistance, the most prevalent being the meme “Pussy Grabs Back!” (see fig. 1). The Pussy Hat Project soon followed. As we know, the pussy hat phenomenon offended some who felt it was racist (not all vulvas are pink) and/or transphobic (not all women have pussies). Nevertheless, a sea of pink pussy hats, worn by persons of many embodiments and identity categories, would be seen in protest, worldwide, at the record-breaking post-inauguration Women's Marches across the globe. If “Grab ’em by the pussy” rightly offended, “Pussy Grabs Back!” gained traction.

This research focuses on designing low-cost aids in teaching materials, to help children with developmental disabilities. Using flash software and power point as interface design with the assistance of interactive device could also be developed teaching materials for children. When detected by a wii remote and infrared (IR emitter) device, corresponding information appears on a screen to increase the interaction of assistive technology aimed at children by adopting an enhanced learning process. There are two cases on this study, they are actually applied on children with developmental disabilities, and the overall equipment cost is approximately US$50.Case 1 is a child wearing hats with reflective stickers, a wii remote with an infrared emitter board in front. When we performed the initial probing of their interactive physical activity, the child was asked to wear hats with reflective stickers, while the teachers asked him to perform continual actions of standing and squatting. Sensors were set up next to the child so that when the child performed the movements, the movements would be sensed by the sensor. The signals were emitted to the computer, and then the corresponding synchronized screen would be displayed immediately. To put it simply, we used the cheap reflective stickers as a mouse, therefore we can design different teaching module courses. Case 2 is one kind of teaching materials for customer design, the participant is also a child with developmental disabilities.In this case, the research took the pictures of the subjects, then edited the images in flash through a mouse. The participating children wore the reflective stickers on their hands, when they moved their hands, their images on the screen would move accordingly as well. In this case, we dressed up the children differently, when the children saw that they were displayed on the screen, and the cursor movements were controlled by their limbs, they felt very happy. In this research, the devices relied upon user-center design, reducing the learning loading from their teaching materials and enhance their learning motivation and interest.

Purpose. The article introduces and analyzes in detail the materials of the Bronze Age from the vicinity of Lake Lop Nor (Xinjiang, China), which are stored in the funds of the National Museum of Korea. The artifacts were obtained by the expedition to Xinjiang under the general guidance of the Japanese explorer and religious public figure, count Otani Kodzui. They are part of a special section of the famous “Otani Collection”. The Korean segment of this collection was completely described in the Republic of Korea in 2016, and now its analysis is presented in Russian for the first time. The materials of the Bronze Age constitute the most archaic part of the Xinjiang collection. This group includes 12 items: 4 woven baskets, 3 wooden masks with carvings of human faces, 2 ritual staves, 2 felt hats and one boot from a pair of leather footwear. Results. Analysis of the artifacts demonstrates analogies with the eponymous and most famous site of Xiaohe culture on the territory of Xinjiang – the Xiaohe burial ground at Lake Lop Nor. However, there were other complexes like Xiaohe which existed in ancient Xinjiang (for example, Beifang burial ground on the Keriya River). The authors note that the ornamental composition on the surface of woven baskets demonstrates similarity to the decor of the Andronovo culture’s ceramic vessels, and the iconography of wooden carvings of human faces is close to the images on the steles and plates of the Okunevo culture of Southern Siberia. Separate objects similar to both Andronovo and Okunevo cultures are also known to have been found on other sites of Xinjiang. Conclusion. The closest analogy to the described items from the funds of the National Museum of Korea is the Xiaohe culture materials. The question about the exact location of the site where the items of Xinjiang collection in Korea come from is still open. It requires additional research.

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to provide a commentary on “‘I felt I deserved it’ – Experiences and implications of disability hate crime”. Design/methodology/approach – Comparing the findings reported by Richardson and her colleagues with the wider evidence base, it is clear that there is considerable consistency. While scholarship in this area is still nascent, there is sufficient clarity around key issues that should support action to tackle hate crime against people with learning disability and/or autism. Findings – Interventions should not make uncritical assumptions around the vulnerability of people with learning disability and/or autism. Poor service commissioning, design and delivery can play a part in heightening risks. Hate crime is not simply a criminal justice issue, and effective intervention will rely on multi-agency working. Originality/value – The commentary recommends a social model approach towards understanding hate crime and how it may be tackled. It identifies the challenges confronting multi-agency working by situating the analysis against the wider context of public spending cuts and the impact of these on wider societal attitudes towards disabled people.

This dissertation seeks to explore the wide reaching effects of the ‘Consumer Revolution of the Augustan Period’ (1680-1750) by examining the Hudson’s Bay Company from the perspective of the London metropole. During this period, newly imported and manufactured goods began flooding English markets. For the first time, members of the middling and lower sorts were able to afford those items which had previously been deemed ‘luxuries.’ One of these luxuries was the beaver felt hat, which had previously been restricted to the wealthy aristocracy and gentry because of its great cost. However, because of the HBC’s exports of beaver fur from Rupert’s Land making beaver widely available and therefore, less expensive, those outside of the privileged upper sorts were finally able to enjoy this commodity. Thus, the focus here will be on the furs leaving North America, specifically Hudson’s Bay, between 1670 and 1730, and consider the subsequent consumption of those furs by the British and European markets. This thesis examines English fashion, social, economic, and political history to understand the Hudson’s Bay Company and the Consumer Revolution, and their effects on one another.

This thesis reconstructs the felt hat industry of Bristol and South Gloucestershire from its arrival in the region about 1530 until its local demise in 1909. It is a reinstatement and interpretation of a local industrial powerhouse largely neglected by Bristol's historians. The extent and influence of the trade through its ownership, employment and markets, and the lives of its workers, is discussed. No previous work has investigated the subject. There were studies of the early London hatters (Unwin, 1900-1904), those in the north west (Housley, 1929 MA; Giles, 1959; Turner 1986 MSc), and a national perspective, emphasizing one dominant firm (Smith, 1980 PhD).1 Early manufacture around the city soon led to a dispute over civic monopoly. Until the eighteenth century, the feltmakers of South Gloucestershire serviced the Bristol wholesalers and became the admired princes of the 'rough' trade.' At the acme, about 1,000 men were employed to make hats that satisfied the city's merchants in their domestic arrangements and in their overseas trade, principally in the colonies and in the slave business. About 1800, London interests displaced those of Bristol; the low-wage, high-skilled village workforce became a dependency of the capital. Through all this time, the men had a determined commitment to unchanging craft skills and a firm control of craft entry. The industry died as a backwater after enervating fights against legislation, innovation, capital and mechanisation. Few British institutions, let alone industries, can offer an historical view covering nearly 400 years of English development. The regional felt hat trade brushed against, and was sometimes in conflict with, much of the national regulation and taxation of markets and employment, and gives a particular and often surprisingly refreshing perspective. The reality on the ground, away from broader theory, is often unexpected.

For my senior thesis, I have compiled essays that cover traveling to Aix en Provence for the month of June 2103 and growing up in East Tennessee. This project should exhibit my skills as a writer in the nonfiction category. I describe personal experiences, portray characters, and attempt to show readers a world that they may not otherwise have been able to experience. I blend narrative essays with travel writing to show overall how these two components create an intercultural experience that work to inform and answer each other.

Sabine Knierbein empirically explores transitions in everyday life and derives an everyday-theory based approach to frame urban studies from there. Scholars in the scientific field of urban studies repeatedly refer to Henri Lefebvre's ouevre (1974, 1967, 1970). His centenary work in the background ›La Critique de la Vie Quotidienne‹ (1947, 1961, 1981) remains, however, somehow underestimated, although in many places empirical evidence points to manifest turnovers as regards everyday life in contemporary cities. This indicates an exigency to introduce everyday-theory-based approaches in the field of urban studies. This contribution enlightens the socio-historical genesis of Lefebvre's Critique of Everyday Life and provides an update of such a critique by adding more recent positions. How much Lefebvre is needed in urban studies in conteporary times shaken by crisis? Which role may Lefebvre's early critique of interdisciplinarity play in an early positivist context of studying cities? Supported by his oeuvre, will scholars be able to tow an important urban studies emphasis on everyday life and lived space constructively towards the 21st century? Because in the second decade of the early 21st century nothing appears the same any more: Particularly everyday life has tremendously changed.

Zusammenfassung Damit Deutschland nachhaltiger Wirtschaftsraum bleibt, muss in Forschung und Entwicklung, Geschäftsmodellinnovation und Kompetenzentwicklung im Bereich hybrider Leistungsbündel sowie der Plattform-Ökosysteme breitflächig investiert werden. Dahinter steht das Ziel, Deutschland wieder zu einer der führenden Technologienationen zu machen, denn diese Position hat Deutschland, als die Digitalisierung Einzug erhielt, in vielen Feldern verloren. Nun gilt es, Boden wieder gut zu machen und nach den Bereichen Daten-Hosting und B2C-Plattformen, die fest in US-amerikanischer und chinesischer Hand sind, jetzt das bedeutende Feld der Plattform-Ökonomie zu gestalten, in denen Prozess-Know-how mit Fertigungs-Wissen kombiniert wird, Expertenwissen im Anlagenbau und Produktionsplanung zusammenkommen sowie die Erfahrungen mit produktionsnahen und produktspezifischen Dienstleistungen die Basis hybrider Leistungsbündel darstellen. Der Wettkampf um dieses weltweit bedeutende, weiße Feld auf der Landkarte der webbasierten und mit Plattformen verbundenen Business Ecosystems und mit diesen den hybriden Leistungsbündel im B2B- sowie B2C-Bereich, hat gerade erst begonnen – und Deutschland startet dazu aus einer hervorragenden Ausgangslage. Damit diese Pole-Position ausgebaut werden kann, müssen die technologischen Enabler (Modularität, Konnektivität, Digitaler Zwilling und Autonomie) sowie die Geschäftsmodell-Enabler (Denken in Geschäftsmodellen, Resilienz sowie Wertschöpfungsnetze und Plattform-Ökonomie) konsequent angegangen werden. Dabei wird die Fähigkeit, Kooperationen einzugehen, zu einer Kernkompetenz, denn nur durch das schnelle, flexible Zusammenbringen von Kompetenzen, schaffen wir den eigentlichen und nicht schnell kopierbaren Mehrwert für hybride Leistungsbündel, in denen physische Produkte und smarte Services verschmelzen und neue Geschäftsmodelle ermöglicht werden. Offene Datennetze, die Bereitschaft, Daten zu teilen und Open-Source-Ansätze werden mit diesen Kooperationen zur kritischen Voraussetzung für die Wertschöpfung von heute und morgen. IT Security und Intellectual Property müssen gewahrt bleiben, doch darf die Angst vor dem Missbrauch von Daten nicht dazu führen, dass ad hoc und für spezielle Produkte zu gestaltende Supply Chains nicht organisiert, den wahrgenommenen Kundennutzen bietende Services zu physischen Produkten nicht erstellt oder freie Produktionskapazitäten nicht genutzt werden. „Mehrwert“ heißt morgen „Kooperation“!

The coronavirus pandemic has had serious economic consequences. As a result, the demand for consumer goods and services has fallen sharply, and the service sector is suffering huge losses. Accordingly, revenue also fell, while the mandatory costs remained unchanged: loan payments, rent payments, salaries, taxes and social contributions. The resulting cash gap is likely to lead to massive bankruptcies.

“Distinction” identifies the often-tortured efforts by Britons to have their gold and wear it too. Mayors, liverymen, admirals, peers, and royals conspicuously brandished gold well into the nineteenth century, while belittling foreigners and status-hungry nouveau riches for wearing wealth. The ideal and reality did start to converge after 1820, when doctors started to trade in their gold-headed canes for stethoscopes, watches lost their gold chains, and gold-laced hats gave way to felt derbies. Increasingly, wearing gold appeared in conduct manuals and novels as resoundingly atavistic; and once it had been consigned to the past it could be safely enjoyed in historical settings, as when Victoria and Albert presided over costume balls bedecked in Elizabethan embroidery. More generally, Britons carefully carved out exceptions—including servants, military officers, and members of the royal family—that proved a general rule against wearing gold.

The Red Lotus Critical Health Promotion Model (RLCHPM) is used in health promotion teaching, research and practice in multiple countries. The model is designed to support critical health promotion as a public health practice, and responds to calls to move practice away from biomedical-behavioural approaches to health promotion. The RLCHPM includes of a system of values and principles for critical practice including health equity, holistic health paradigm, strengths-based salutogenic approaches, socioecological science, non-maleficence, and empowering engagement processes. The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of the RLCHPM on the practice of graduates from health promotion programs from a university in Australia. Methods: We conducted a mixed methods study involving an online survey of graduates from 2008 to 2016, followed by semi-structured interviews with a subset of self-nominated respondents. We used descriptive analyses for survey data and thematic analysis for interview data. Results: There was a total of 95 respondents (49% response rate) and 10 of these were interviewed. Participants felt knowledgeable about the model, and confident about their ability to use it. The model was understandable, easy to use, and important, relevant and useful in practice. More than half felt that the model had an impact on their health promotion practice, however less than a quarter felt that the model had an impact on institutional policies in their workplace. Interview data revealed the need for a step-by-step guide for implementing the model in multiple sectors, access to ongoing support for model implementation, and clearer links to other relevant models. Conclusions: The RLCHPM is well understood and considered to be important, relevant and useful to the practice of graduates. The study has implications for the use of the model in health promotion degree programs, and in professional development programs for health promotion practitioners.

Body fat analysers use four plantar electrodes integrated in a body scale to measure the foot-to-foot resistance and estimate body fat by using a proprietary equation. The variation of this resistance with the contact area between feet and electrodes has been investigated by using a podoscope permitting to photograph feet soles and electrodes. This resistance was found to decrease when current electrode area increased. The reproducibility of the electronics was excellent (< 2Ω) in measurements repeated without changing feet position, but the mean standard deviation was 3.5 to 4 Ω when the subject stepped down at each measurement due to feet position changes.

Abstract Virtual simulations are becoming increasingly important in many areas of engineering and design. Increased computing power is enabling more realistic interactions as well as more complex simulations. A virtual luggage inspection system has been developed incorporating a realistic suitcase model. The models are obtained from several different methods, demonstrating flexibility. Contact detection has been implemented allowing object interaction and manipulation. Force feedback has been integrated, and a force response scheme developed, enabling grasped objects to be felt and evaluated. A fairly robust virtual system capable of handling several applications is presented.

Dynamic modeling of a flexible hub-beam system with an eccentric tip mass including nonlinear hysteretic contact is studied in this paper. In reality, the model is intended to represent the mechanical finger of an actuator for a piano key. Developing a device to achieve a desired finger-key contact force profile that realistically replicates that of a real pianist’s finger is the main objective of this research. The proposed actuation system consists of a flexible arm which is attached to a DC brushless rotary motor thorough a hub. The compliant arm behaves as a cantilever beam to which an eccentric tip mass has been attached at its free end. During the piano key stroke, the contact force input from the tip causes the key to rotate and impact the ground through an interface lined with stiff felt to suppress vibrations and noise. Euler-Bernoulli beam theory in conjunction with Lagrange’s method is utilized to obtain the governing equations of motion for the system. The finite element method is used as the discretization procedure for the flexible cantilever beam, which can be considered a distributed parameter system. To include contact dynamics at the stop, the nonlinear hysteretic behavior of felt under compression is modeled in such a way that smooth transitions between loading and unloading stages are produced, thus ensuring accurate response under dynamic conditions, and particularly with partial loading and unloading states that occur during the contact period. Simulation results show excessive vibration is produced due to the arm flexibility and also the rigid-body oscillations of the arm, especially during the period of key-felt contact. To eliminate these vibrations, the system was supplemented with various dashpot models, including a simple grounded rotational dashpot, and a grounded rotational dashpot with a one-sided relation. The results of simulations are presented showing the effect on vibration behavior attributed to these additional components.

Bipeds with curved feet typically require less energy for walking than do point- or flat-footed bipeds, and they tend to mimic human gait more closely. Thus, understanding the effects of curved feet on bipedal walking gaits has the potential to improve both humanoid robot efficiency and human rehabilitation. This paper derives the equations of motion for planar bipeds with curved feet under the assumption, among others, of instantaneous transfer of support between the legs. The paper then verifies the mathematical model by comparing the results of simulation to previous experimental results for two very different bipedal robots — McGeer’s two-link, passive dynamic walker traversing a decline and the five-link, actuated biped ERNIE walking on a treadmill with a supporting boom. In both cases, the results from simulation match the experimental results very well despite the simplifying assumptions, indicating that the mathematical model captures the dominate dynamics of bipedal robots with curved feet.

Abstract A large number of walking robots walk with a statically-stable gait. A statically-stable walker has at least three feet that are in ground contact at any time. If there are more than three feet in ground contact, the normal (vertical) forces exerted by the ground on the feet of the walker are indeterminate, unless they are measured. Some walking robots may walk with more than three legs in ground contact in order to achieve greater stability. To ensure this stability it is desirable to predict how vertical forces passively redistribute underneath the feet during walker motions. Predictions of future foot forces can be used as a basis for accepting or rejecting any planned walker motion. Two methods — the least-squares method and the compliance method — for predicting this redistribution of forces in the face of static indeterminacy are presented in this work. Both methods are computationally efficient, and give reasonably accurate predictions, as verified by experiments on a walking robot.

Volutes are often used on the discharge of a centrifugal pump and compressor to provide efficient gathering of flow moving radially outward and direct to a single tangential exit point. To provide this efficiency, volutes are sized to provide near zero circumferential static pressure distribution at the Best Efficiency Point (BEP). However, as the compressor or pump operates away from BEP, a circumferential variation in static pressure is created within the diffuser and is felt by the impeller. This non-uniform static pressure can also be felt in the journal bearings. Accounting for this radial loading is essential when sizing journal bearings for the pump or compressor to work properly. The volute has been the subject of numerous extensive theoretical, numerical and experimental studies, because the volute strongly affects the overall performance, stability, operating range and the location of the best efficiency point of the pump or compressor. This paper reviews the status of methods for predicting the volute-induced radial force and also attempts to provoke renewed interest and possibly encourage more work to contribute towards a more accurate prediction of the volute-induced radial force. Both pumps and compressor are now being built with increasing pressure ratios, higher speeds and larger sizes, thus giving importance to the need for more accurate radial force prediction methods.

Since February 2021, countless lives have been lost in India, which has compounded the social and economic devastation caused by the second wave of COVID-19. The sharp surge in cases across the country overwhelmed the health infrastructure, with people left scrambling for hospital beds, critical drugs, and oxygen. As of May 2021, infections began to come down in urban areas. However, the effects of the second wave continued to be felt in rural areas. This is the worst humanitarian and public health crisis the country has witnessed since independence; while the continued spread of COVID-19 variants will have regional and global implications. With a slow vaccine rollout and overwhelmed health infrastructure, there is a critical need to examine India's response and recommend measures to further arrest the current spread of infection and to prevent and prepare against future waves. This brief is a rapid social science review and analysis of the second wave of COVID-19 in India. It draws on emerging reports, literature, and regional social science expertise to examine reasons for the second wave, explain its impact, and highlight the systemic issues that hindered the response. This brief puts forth vital considerations for local and national government, civil society, and humanitarian actors at global and national levels, with implications for future waves of COVID-19 in low- and middle-income countries. This review is part of the Social Science in Humanitarian Action Platform (SSHAP) series on the COVID-19 response in India. It was developed for SSHAP by Mihir R. Bhatt (AIDMI), Shilpi Srivastava (IDS), Megan Schmidt-Sane (IDS), and Lyla Mehta (IDS) with input and reviews from Deepak Sanan (Former Civil Servant; Senior Visiting Fellow, Centre for Policy Research), Subir Sinha (SOAS), Murad Banaji (Middlesex University London), Delhi Rose Angom (Oxfam India), Olivia Tulloch (Anthrologica) and Santiago Ripoll (IDS). It is the responsibility of SSHAP.

The article focuses on the «Intellectual Dark Web», an informal group of scholars, publicists, and activists who openly opposed the identity politics, political correctness, and the dominance of leftist ideas in American intellectual life. The author examines the reasons for the emergence of this group, names the main representatives and finds that the existence of «dark intellectuals» is the evidence of important problems in US public discourse. The term «Intellectual Dark Web» was coined by businessman Eric Weinstein to describe those who openly opposed restrictions on freedom of speech by the state or certain groups on the grounds of avoiding discrimination and hate speech. Extensive discussion of the phenomenon of «dark intellectuals» began after the publication of Barry Weiss’s article «Meet the renegades from the «Intellectual Dark Web» in The New York Times in 2018. The author writes of «dark intellectuals» as an informal group of «rebellious thinkers, academic apostates, and media personalities» who felt isolated from traditional channels of communication and therefore built their own alternative platforms to discuss awkward topics that were often taboo in the mainstream media. One of the most prominent members of this group, Canadian clinical psychologist Jordan Peterson, publicly opposed the C-16 Act in September 2016, which the Canadian government aimed to implement initiatives that would prevent discrimination against transgender people. Peterson called it a direct interference with the right to freedom of speech and the introduction of state censorship. Other members of the group had a similar experience that their views were not accepted in the scientific or media sphere. The existence of the «Intellectual Dark Web» indicates the problem of political polarization and the reduction of the ability to find a compromise in the American intellectual sphere and in American society as a whole.

This study is the latest in a series monitoring the evolution of poverty, based on data gathered by The ESRI in the Living in Ireland Surveys since 1994. These have allowed progress towards achieving the targets set out in the National Anti Poverty Strategy since 1997 to be assessed. The present study provides an updated picture using results from the 2000 round of the Living in Ireland survey. The numbers interviewed in the 2000 Living in Ireland survey were enhanced substantially, to compensate for attrition in the panel survey since it commenced in 1994. Individual interviews were conducted with 8,056 respondents. Relative income poverty lines do not on their own provide a satisfactory measure of exclusion due to lack of resources, but do nonetheless produce important key indicators of medium to long-term background trends. The numbers falling below relative income poverty lines were most often higher in 2000 than in 1997 or 1994. The income gap for those falling below these thresholds also increased. By contrast, the percentage of persons falling below income lines indexed only to prices (rather than average income) since 1994 or 1997 fell sharply, reflecting the pronounced real income growth throughout the distribution between then and 2000. This contrast points to the fundamental factors at work over this highly unusual period: unemployment fell very sharply and substantial real income growth was seen throughout the distribution, including social welfare payments, but these lagged behind income from work and property so social welfare recipients were more likely to fall below thresholds linked to average income. The study shows an increasing probability of falling below key relative income thresholds for single person households, those affected by illness or disability, and for those who are aged 65 or over - many of whom rely on social welfare support. Those in households where the reference person is unemployed still face a relatively high risk of falling below the income thresholds but continue to decline as a proportion of all those below the lines. Women face a higher risk of falling below those lines than men, but this gap was marked among the elderly. The study shows a marked decline in deprivation levels across different household types. As a result consistent poverty, that is the numbers both below relative income poverty lines and experiencing basic deprivation, also declined sharply. Those living in households comprising one adult with children continue to face a particularly high risk of consistent poverty, followed by those in families with two adults and four or more children. The percentage of adults in households below 70 per cent of median income and experiencing basic deprivation was seen to have fallen from 9 per cent in 1997 to about 4 per cent, while the percentage of children in such households fell from 15 per cent to 8 per cent. Women aged 65 or over faced a significantly higher risk of consistent poverty than men of that age. Up to 2000, the set of eight basic deprivation items included in the measure of consistent poverty were unchanged, so it was important to assess whether they were still capturing what would be widely seen as generalised deprivation. Factor analysis suggested that the structuring of deprivation items into the different dimensions has remained remarkably stable over time. Combining low income with the original set of basic deprivation indicators did still appear to identify a set of households experiencing generalised deprivation as a result of prolonged constraints in terms of command over resources, and distinguished from those experiencing other types of deprivation. However, on its own this does not tell the whole story - like purely relative income measures - nor does it necessarily remain the most appropriate set of indicators looking forward. Finally, it is argued that it would now be appropriate to expand the range of monitoring tools to include alternative poverty measures incorporating income and deprivation. Levels of deprivation for some of the items included in the original basic set were so low by 2000 that further progress will be difficult to capture empirically. This represents a remarkable achievement in a short space of time, but poverty is invariably reconstituted in terms of new and emerging social needs in a context of higher societal living standards and expectations. An alternative set of basic deprivation indicators and measure of consistent poverty is presented, which would be more likely to capture key trends over the next number of years. This has implications for the approach adopted in monitoring the National Anti-Poverty Strategy. Monitoring over the period to 2007 should take a broader focus than the consistent poverty measure as constructed to date, with attention also paid to both relative income and to consistent poverty with the amended set of indicators identified here.

On the occasion of the centenary of the First World War, remembered across the world from 2014 until the end of 2018, many aspects and experiences of this global conflict have been re-examined or brought to light for the first time, as we honour the memory of those estimated 16 million soldiers and civilians who perished in what was then known as the ‘Great War’, or the ‘War to End All Wars’. So many of these died on the infamous fields of Flanders, where Allied and Central Forces dug themselves into trenches for the better part of four years. Over the past few years, new research has brought to light many insights into the plight of animals in this War, which – for the younger readers amongst you – was fought at the dawn of motorised warfare, using anything powered by two or four feet or paws, from the homing pigeons delivering secret messages across enemy lines, to the traction provided by oxen and mules to pull cannons and other heavy artillery, to the horses of the cavalry. Not least among these roles was the supply of animal protein to the troops, whether this came through the specific designation of animals for this purpose or as the result of a failed attempt at delivering any of the above services. Several leading publications today have documented the role (and suffering) of animals in ‘La Grande Guerre’. Less so the role of veterinarians in the ‘War to End All Wars’. Who were they? How many? How were they organised? What did they do, on either side of the enemy lines? The present article is a humble attempt to shed some light on these veterinary colleagues, based on available, mostly grey, literature…

This research sought to understand the impact of probation inspection on probation policy, practice and practitioners. This important but neglected area of study has significant ramifications because the Her Majesty’s Inspectorate of Probation has considerable power to influence policy through its inspection regime and research activities. The study utilised a mixed methodological approach comprising observations of inspections and interviews with people who work in probation, the Inspectorate and external stakeholders. In total, 77 people were interviewed or took part in focus groups. Probation practitioners, managers and leaders were interviewed in the weeks after an inspection to find out how they experienced the process of inspection. Staff at HMI Probation were interviewed to understand what inspection is for and how it works. External stakeholders representing people from the voluntary sector, politics and other non-departmental bodies were interviewed to find out how they used the work of inspection in their own roles. Finally, leaders within the National Probation Service and Her Majesty’s Prisons and Probation Service were interviewed to see how inspection impacts on policy more broadly. The data were analysed thematically with five key themes being identified. Overall, participants were positive about the way inspection is carried out in the field of probation. The main findings are: 1. Inspection places a burden on practitioners and organisations. Practitioners talked about the anxiety that a looming inspection created and how management teams created additional pressures which were hard to cope with on top of already high workloads. Staff responsible for managing the inspection and with leadership positions talked about the amount of time the process of inspection took up. Importantly, inspection was seen to take people away from their day jobs and meant other priorities were side-lined, even if temporarily. However, the case interviews that practitioners take part in were seen as incredibly valuable exercises which gave staff the opportunity to reflect on their practice and receive positive feedback and validation for their work. 2. Providers said that the findings and conclusions from inspections were often accurate and, to some extent, unsurprising. However, they sometimes find it difficult to implement recommendations due to reports failing to take context into account. Negative reports have a serious impact on staff morale, especially for CRCs and there was concern about the impact of negative findings on a provider’s reputation. 3. External stakeholders value the work of the Inspectorate. The Inspectorate is seen to generate highly valid and meaningful data which stakeholders can use in their own roles. This can include pushing for policy reform or holding government to account from different perspectives. In particular, thematic inspections were seen to be useful here. 4. The regulatory landscape in probation is complex with an array of actors working to hold providers to account. When compared to other forms of regulation such as audit or contract management the Inspectorate was perceived positively due to its methodological approach as well as the way it reflects the values of probation itself. 5. Overall, the inspectorate appears to garner considerable legitimacy from those it inspects. This should, in theory, support the way it can impact on policy and practice. There are some areas for development here though such as more engagement with service users. While recognising that the Inspectorate has made a concerted effort to do this in the last two years participants all felt that more needs to be done to increase that trust between the inspectorate and service users. Overall, the Inspectorate was seen to be independent and 3 impartial although this belief was less prevalent amongst people in CRCs who argued that the Inspectorate has been biased towards supporting its own arguments around reversing the now failed policy of Transforming Rehabilitation. There was some debate amongst participants about how the Inspectorate could, or should, enforce compliance with its recommendations although most people were happy with the primarily relational way of encouraging compliance with sanctions for non-compliance being considered relatively unnecessary. To conclude, the work of the Inspectorate has a significant impact on probation policy, practice and practitioners. The majority of participants were positive about the process of inspection and the Inspectorate more broadly, notwithstanding some of the issues raised in the findings. There are some developments which the Inspectorate could consider to reduce the burden inspection places on providers and practitioners and enhance its impact such as amending the frequency of inspection, improving the feedback given to practitioners and providing more localised feedback, and working to reduce or limit perceptions of bias amongst people in CRCs. The Inspectorate could also do more to capture the impact it has on providers and practitioners – both positive and negative - through existing procedures that are in place such as post-case interview surveys and tracking the implementation of recommendations.

Key Points Seven in 10 U.S. women of reproductive age, some 44 million women, make at least one medical visit to obtain sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services each year. While the overall number of women receiving any SRH service remained relatively stable between 2006–2010 and 2015–2019, the number of women receiving preventive gynecologic care fell and the number receiving STI testing doubled. Disparities in use of SRH services persist, as Hispanic women are significantly less likely than non-Hispanic White women to receive SRH services, and uninsured women are significantly less likely to receive services than privately insured women. Publicly funded clinics remain critical sources of SRH care for many women, with younger women, lower income women, women of color, foreign-born women, women with Medicaid coverage and women who are uninsured especially likely to rely on publicly funded clinics. Among women who go to clinics for SRH care, two-thirds report that the clinic is their usual source for medical care. Among those relying on both private providers and public clinics, the proportion of women who reported receiving a combination of contraceptive and STI/HIV care increased between 2006–2010 and 2015–2019. Implementation of the Affordable Care Act has likely contributed to some of the changes observed in where women receive contraceptive and other SRH services and how they pay for that care: The share of women receiving contraceptive services who go to private providers rose from 69% to 77% between 2006–2010 and 2015–2019, in part because more women gained private or public health insurance coverage and there was a greater likelihood that their health insurance would cover SRH services. There was a complementary drop in the share of women receiving contraceptive services who went to a publicly funded clinic, from 27% in 2006–2010 to 18% in 2015–2019. For non-Hispanic Black women, immigrant women and uninsured women, there was no increase in the use of private providers for contraceptive care from 2006–2010 to 2015–2019. Among women served at publicly funded clinics between 2006–2010 and 2015–2019, there were significant increases in the use of both public and private insurance to pay for their care.

Zweifelsohne wirken sich neue Technologien auf die Alltagsmobilität einschließlich der Wahl verfügbarer Verkehrsmitteln aus und implizieren damit verkehrs- umwelt- und raumbezogene Folgen. Der massenhafte Anstieg der individuellen Pkw-Nutzung der zurückliegenden Jahrzehnte wird weitestgehend auf strukturelle Veränderungen zurückgeführt, die sich aus dem Zusammenwirken von technologischer Möglichkeit (hier: der Option „Pkw“) und allgemeinen ökonomischen und sozialen Entwicklungstrends in modernen Industriegesellschaften ergeben (vgl. exemplarisch Kutter 2001; Kutter/Stein 1998). Insbesondere bezogen auf die soziale Akzeptanz von technischen Neuerungen – ökonomisch gesprochen: die Substitutionsbereitschaft zwischen bestehenden und neuen Technologien – muss jedoch die Perspektive des Akteurs und sein individuelles Entscheidungsverhalten stärker in den Blick genommen werden, um die für Verkehr, Umwelt und Raum sich ergebenden Folgen besser abschätzen zu können. Entsprechende Studien, die das individuelle Entscheidungsverhalten im Umgang mit technologischen Neuerungen ins Zentrum der Untersuchung stellen, sind jedoch nach wie vor nur in geringer Zahl vorhanden. So steht beispielsweise außer Frage, dass Neuerungen im Bereich von IuK-Technologien die physische Mobilität nachhaltig beeinträchtigen werden. Gleichwohl sind die vorhandenen theoretischen wie empirischen Befunde der Mobilitätsforschung, wie die Entwicklung von IuK-Technologien die individuelle Mobilitätsnachfrage verändern wird, jedoch unklar oder widersprüchlich. Entsprechend stellt etwa Bamberg (2010) fest: „Die Dynamik dieser Entwicklung ist z.Z. kaum prognostizierbar“. Vor diesem Hintergrund hat unter anderen das Institut für Mobilitätsforschung (ifmo) in Kooperation mit dem Imperial College London jüngst eine Grundlagenstudie gestartet, um den Stand des Wissens zum Einfluss von IuK-Technologien auf das Mobilitätsverhalten aufzuarbeiten. Ein ähnlicher Erkenntnisstand lässt sich für andere verkehrs- und mobilitätsrelevante Technologiebereiche diagnostizieren. Eine der wenigen Ausnahmen hiervon bilden Analysen des Nutzerverhaltens bezogen auf die Akzeptanz neuer Antriebstechnologien im Bereich des motorisierten Individualverkehrs und hier speziell mit Blick auf die Nutzung elektrisch betriebener Fahrzeuge (vgl. stellvertretend Bongard 2014; Fazel 2014; Peters et al. 2013; Haugrund 2013; Pieper et al. 2013; Paternoga et al. 2013; Dudenhöffer et al. 2012; Döring/Aigner 2012; Döring 2012; Ahrend et al. 2011; Peters/Hoffmann 2011; Döring/Aigner 2011). Zu den Elektrofahrzeugen zählen dabeiterminologisch nicht alllein reine batterieelektrisch betriebene Fahrzeuge (BEV), sondern auch solche Elektrofahrzeuge, die entweder über einen Verbrennungsmotor zur Reichweitenverlängerung verfügen (REEV) oder bei denen sowohl ein E-Motor als auch ein Verbrennungsmotor für den Antrieb sorgt, wie dies bei den am Stromnetz aufladbaren Plugin-Hybridfahrzeugen (PHEV) der Fall ist. Schließlich werden zudem Brennstoffzellenfahrzeuge (FCEV), welche die benötigte Energie direkt an Bord des Fahrzeugs erzeugen (z.B. in Form von Wasserstoffbrennstoffzellen), zu den Elektrofahrzeugen gezählt. In Anbetracht dessen sollen nachfolgend exemplarisch die vorhandenen Einsichten zum Nutzerverhalten im Umgang mit der Elektromobilität zusammenfassend dargestellt sowie – wenngleich nur ansatzweise und damit in lediglich rudimentärer Form – einige sich daraus ergebende verkehrs-, umwelt- und raumbezogene Implikationen aufgezeigt werden.

The Everglades National Park and Big Cypress National Preserve vegetation mapping project is part of the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP). It is a cooperative effort between the South Florida Water Management District (SFWMD), the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and the National Park Service’s (NPS) Vegetation Mapping Inventory Program (VMI). The goal of this project is to produce a spatially and thematically accurate vegetation map of Everglades National Park and Big Cypress National Preserve prior to the completion of restoration efforts associated with CERP. This spatial product will serve as a record of baseline vegetation conditions for the purpose of: (1) documenting changes to the spatial extent, pattern, and proportion of plant communities within these two federally-managed units as they respond to hydrologic modifications resulting from the implementation of the CERP; and (2) providing vegetation and land-cover information to NPS park managers and scientists for use in park management, resource management, research, and monitoring. This mapping project covers an area of approximately 7,400 square kilometers (1.84 million acres [ac]) and consists of seven mapping regions: four regions in Everglades National Park, Regions 1–4, and three in Big Cypress National Preserve, Regions 5–7. The report focuses on the mapping effort associated with the Northwest Coastal Everglades (NWCE), Region 4 , in Everglades National Park. The NWCE encompasses a total area of 1,278 square kilometers (493.7 square miles [sq mi], or 315,955 ac) and is geographically located to the south of Big Cypress National Preserve, west of Shark River Slough (Region 1), and north of the Southwest Coastal Everglades (Region 3). Photo-interpretation was performed by superimposing a 50 × 50-meter (164 × 164-feet [ft] or 0.25 hectare [0.61 ac]) grid cell vector matrix over stereoscopic, 30 centimeters (11.8 inches) spatial resolution, color-infrared aerial imagery on a digital photogrammetric workstation. Photo-interpreters identified the dominant community in each cell by applying majority-rule algorithms, recognizing community-specific spectral signatures, and referencing an extensive ground-truth database. The dominant vegetation community within each grid cell was classified using a hierarchical classification system developed specifically for this project. Additionally, photo-interpreters categorized the absolute cover of cattail (Typha sp.) and any invasive species detected as either: Sparse (10–49%), Dominant (50–89%), or Monotypic (90–100%). A total of 178 thematic classes were used to map the NWCE. The most common vegetation classes are Mixed Mangrove Forest-Mixed and Transitional Bayhead Shrubland. These two communities accounted for about 10%, each, of the mapping area. Other notable classes include Short Sawgrass Marsh-Dense (8.1% of the map area), Mixed Graminoid Freshwater Marsh (4.7% of the map area), and Black Mangrove Forest (4.5% of the map area). The NWCE vegetation map has a thematic class accuracy of 88.4% with a lower 90th Percentile Confidence Interval of 84.5%.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.

From this edition, the Financial Stability Report will have fewer pages with some changes in its structure. The purpose of this change is to present the most relevant facts of the financial system and their implications on the financial stability. This allows displaying the analysis more concisely and clearly, as it will focus on describing the evolution of the variables that have the greatest impact on the performance of the financial system, for estimating then the effect of a possible materialization of these risks on the financial health of the institutions. The changing dynamics of the risks faced by the financial system implies that the content of the Report adopts this new structure; therefore, some analyses and series that were regularly included will not necessarily be in each issue. However, the statistical annex that accompanies the publication of the Report will continue to present the series that were traditionally included, regardless of whether or not they are part of the content of the Report. In this way we expect to contribute in a more comprehensive way to the study and analysis of the stability of the Colombian financial system. Executive Summary During the first half of 2015, the main advanced economies showed a slow recovery on their growth, while emerging economies continued with their slowdown trend. Domestic demand in the United States allowed for stabilization on its average growth for the first half of the year, while other developed economies such as the United Kingdom, the euro zone, and Japan showed a more gradual recovery. On the other hand, the Chinese economy exhibited the lowest growth rate in five years, which has resulted in lower global dynamism. This has led to a fall in prices of the main export goods of some Latin American economies, especially oil, whose price has also responded to a larger global supply. The decrease in the terms of trade of the Latin American economies has had an impact on national income, domestic demand, and growth. This scenario has been reflected in increases in sovereign risk spreads, devaluations of stock indices, and depreciation of the exchange rates of most countries in the region. For Colombia, the fall in oil prices has also led to a decline in the terms of trade, resulting in pressure on the dynamics of national income. Additionally, the lower demand for exports helped to widen the current account deficit. This affected the prospects and economic growth of the country during the first half of 2015. This economic context could have an impact on the payment capacity of debtors and on the valuation of investments, affecting the soundness of the financial system. However, the results of the analysis featured in this edition of the Report show that, facing an adverse scenario, the vulnerability of the financial system in terms of solvency and liquidity is low. The analysis of the current situation of credit institutions (CI) shows that growth of the gross loan portfolio remained relatively stable, as well as the loan portfolio quality indicators, except for microcredit, which showed a decrease in these indicators. Regarding liabilities, traditional sources of funding have lost market share versus non-traditional ones (bonds, money market operations and in the interbank market), but still represent more than 70%. Moreover, the solvency indicator remained relatively stable. As for non-banking financial institutions (NBFI), the slowdown observed during the first six months of 2015 in the real annual growth of the assets total, both in the proprietary and third party position, stands out. The analysis of the main debtors of the financial system shows that indebtedness of the private corporate sector has increased in the last year, mostly driven by an increase in the debt balance with domestic and foreign financial institutions. However, the increase in this latter source of funding has been influenced by the depreciation of the Colombian peso vis-à-vis the US dollar since mid-2014. The financial indicators reflected a favorable behavior with respect to the historical average, except for the profitability indicators; although they were below the average, they have shown improvement in the last year. By economic sector, it is noted that the firms focused on farming, mining and transportation activities recorded the highest levels of risk perception by credit institutions, and the largest increases in default levels with respect to those observed in December 2014. Meanwhile, households have shown an increase in the financial burden, mainly due to growth in the consumer loan portfolio, in which the modalities of credit card, payroll deductible loan, revolving and vehicle loan are those that have reported greater increases in risk indicators. On the side of investments that could be affected by the devaluation in the portfolio of credit institutions and non-banking financial institutions (NBFI), the largest share of public debt securities, variable-yield securities and domestic private debt securities is highlighted. The value of these portfolios fell between February and August 2015, driven by the devaluation in the market of these investments throughout the year. Furthermore, the analysis of the liquidity risk indicator (LRI) shows that all intermediaries showed adequate levels and exhibit a stable behavior. Likewise, the fragility analysis of the financial system associated with the increase in the use of non-traditional funding sources does not evidence a greater exposure to liquidity risk. Stress tests assess the impact of the possible joint materialization of credit and market risks, and reveal that neither the aggregate solvency indicator, nor the liquidity risk indicator (LRI) of the system would be below the established legal limits. The entities that result more individually affected have a low share in the total assets of the credit institutions; therefore, a risk to the financial system as a whole is not observed. José Darío Uribe Governor