Academic literature on the topic 'Financial and economic stability in cities'
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Journal articles on the topic "Financial and economic stability in cities"
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Wang, Feng, Wei Chai, Xiaotian Shi, Mingru Dong, and Bin Yan. "Does Regional Financial Resource Contribute to Economic Growth? From the Perspective of Spatial Correlation Network." SAGE Open 11, no. 1 (January 2021): 215824402199938. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/2158244021999381.
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Using the method of social network analysis, this article explores the characteristics of financial resources distribution at the provincial level in China from 2000 to 2017, and analyzes the influencing factors and network effects of the spatial correlation network characteristics on distribution of financial resources, the results are as follows: The overall network characteristics of the financial resources distribution among provinces and cities in China are of low density, of high dependence and poor stability. The level of economic development, marketization, and integration are related to the spatial correlation network of the distribution of financial resources, and the level of integration and marketization have a significant positive impact on it. Due to the imbalance of economic development among regions in China, the overall network characteristics have a negative network effect on the speed of economic development. Individual network characteristics have a positive network effect on the speed of economic development. Improving network density, network correlation, and reducing network level can narrow the gap in economic development between provinces.
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Pan, Fenghua, Fengmei Zhang, Shengjun Zhu, and Dariusz Wójcik. "Developing by borrowing? Inter-jurisdictional competition, land finance and local debt accumulation in China." Urban Studies 54, no. 4 (September 29, 2016): 897–916. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0042098015624838.
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Although the investment-oriented development model for economic growth adopted by Chinese governments has generated spectacular results, the risks of debt-financed urbanisation and economic development have recently become evident in mounting local debts that are undermining the financial system, triggering concerns with respect to local governments’ indebtedness, financial stability and sovereign risk in China. In this paper, we portray the uneven spatial and temporal dynamics of local government debt in China, and examine the ways in which it is intertwined with institutional, political and economic factors. Our analysis shows that while global and national economic conditions have resulted in a dramatic increase in local government debt, particularly in the late 2000s and the early 2010s, the spatial variation of local debt accumulation in China could be partly explained by two institutional factors: land finance and inter-jurisdictional competition. We argue that the behaviour of local governments may harm the long-term future of Chinese cities.
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Dziekański, Paweł, and Juliusz Piwowarski. "Spatial Differentiation of Synthetic Measure of Economic Security of Local Government. Case Study of Financial Variables of The Cities in The Eastern Poland Macro-Region." International conference KNOWLEDGE-BASED ORGANIZATION 23, no. 2 (June 25, 2017): 46–52. http://dx.doi.org/10.1515/kbo-2017-0086.
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Abstract In this article the authors focus on the element of security culture which is economic security. It is the ability of an economic system to use internal factors of development on a local level and international economic interdependence in such a way that it can guarantee its safe development. Stability and certainty of funding sources determine the scope and level of public services and tasks of a municipality that it fulfils. Economic security is a resulting category that allows to assess functioning of security culture from the perspective of local economy. The aim of the article is to provide determinants of shaping of economic security in Swietokrzyskie Voivodeship municipalities in the context of selected elements of financial management for 2010 and 2015. In the calculations the data of the Central Statistical Office (Local Data Bank) were used. The determined synthetic measure allows to arrange Swietokrzyskie Voivodeship municipalities according to the examined aspect. It gives the basis for evaluation of effectiveness of economic policy instruments that were applied in the past. They provide a comparative picture between the objects that were analysed, allow to indicate weaker and better areas of functioning of a unit.
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Tan, Khee Giap, Xuyao Zhang, and Lin Song. "An urban composite development index based on China's five development concepts." Competitiveness Review: An International Business Journal 30, no. 2 (March 14, 2020): 137–49. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/cr-08-2019-0079.
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Purpose Shandong is a thriving economic centre, being the third largest province by land area in China. It also has the second largest resident population of 99,470,000 and the third largest gross regional domestic product of RMB 6.8tn in 2016. The urbanisation rate of Shandong has been quickly expanding from 45 per cent in 2005 to 58 per cent in 2016. This paper aims to examine the urban development, performance and liveability of 17 Shandong cities through areas such as infrastructure, public services, education and environmental protection. Design/methodology/approach Building upon the theoretical underpinnings of China’s five development concepts – innovation, coordination, green development, opening up and sharing, this paper has constructed the inaugural urban composite development for 17 cities based on 131 indicators across six environments, namely, scale and quality of economic activities, financial capacity, labour market flexibility and economic vibrancy, good governance, effective leadership and social stability, technological advancement and innovation capability, public service standards and quality of life improvement and resource conditions and environmental protection. Findings The empirical results show that Qingdao, Weihai and Yantai perform well in urban development, while the capital city Jinan only rank in the fourth position. Originality/value By identifying the relative strengths and weaknesses of each city based on the perspective of ordinary city dwellers, this paper provides appropriate policy recommendations for policymakers to develop and optimise their economies and urban spaces.
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Mpele Lekhanya, Lawrence, and Henry Lucky Dlamini. "Customer’s perception towards product quality of automotive SMEs operating in Metropolitan areas, and consideration of environmental impact." Environmental Economics 8, no. 1 (April 8, 2017): 36–45. http://dx.doi.org/10.21511/ee.08(1).2017.04.
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This paper examines customer’s perception towards product quality of automotive SMEs operating in the Durban metropolitan areas and identifies how small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in South Africa (SA) contribute significantly to job creation, wealth, social stability, economic growth and reduction of poverty. Product quality of automotive SMEs requires serious attention, as it can have ecological environmental impact leading to the negative economic growth contributed by the industry. The study is aimed to understand the factors affecting automotive SMEs in order to help entrepreneurs to improve product quality and examining the customer’s perception towards product quality. The study was conducted in Durban metropolitan areas using the survey method. The sample size of the study was 120 SMEs selected using convenience sampling with respondents completing the questionnaire. A combined method of both quantitative and qualitative techniques was employed, while the analysis of data was done using the Statistics Package for Social Scientists (SPSS) version 23.0. The findings of the study revealed that lack of managerial skills and development negatively compromises product quality of the automotive sector. Also the results revealed that the absence of financial support from financial institutions delays the improvement of stock in the business, as this is an obstacle resulting in the unsustainability of the SMEs. Further research with larger samples and the consideration of other cities is recommended.
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Guzmán Fernández, Karla, Ana I. Moreno-Calles, Alejandro Casas, and José Blancas. "Contributions of Urban Collective Gardens to Local Sustainability in Mexico City." Sustainability 12, no. 18 (September 14, 2020): 7562. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su12187562.
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Urban collective gardens (UCG) are considered alternatives to face the environmental problems generated by urbanization, contributing to the sustainability of cities. This study aims to characterize UCG and its contributions to the local sustainability in Mexico City (CdMx). From bibliographic searches, consultation on social networks, and expert suggestions, our research group identified 40 gardens for CdMx, based on which we constructed a UCG typology. For deeper studies, we selected 19 UCGs based on several criteria: Number of members (at least three persons managing UCG), UCG age (at least one year), disposition of collaborating in the study, and availability for evaluation. The selected UCGs were evaluated qualitatively following the Framework for the Evaluation of Natural Resource Management Systems incorporating Sustainability Indicators (MESMIS, for its acronym in Spanish) through in-depth interviews and participant observation. We identified critical points or factors that drive or limit UCG (e.g., biological diversity, training of people participating, social and economic stability, access to space and financial support, economic diversification, input dependency, security of land tenure, and contamination risk). We concluded that UCG of CdMX contribute to local sustainability through processes like creating jobs, recovering connections with nature, knowledge transmission, experimental practices, and offers of therapeutic benefits, among others.
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Mitura, Elżbieta, Ewa Oleksiejczuk, and Anna Oleksiejczuk. "Analiza uwarunkowań rozwoju małej i średniej przedsiębiorczości w województwie lubelskim." Przedsiębiorczość - Edukacja 2 (January 1, 2006): 101–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.24917/20833296.2.10.
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One of the characteristic features of social and economic changes in Poland over the last ten years is a dynamic development of small and middle-sized firms. However, the firms vary depend on what kind of economic activity they carry out. Most of small and middle-size firms deal with wholesale and retail trade, estate management, education and building industry. A similar structure of firms can be noticed in major cities in the Lublin region, where trade firms and various services seem to predominate. Economic problems in Poland are directly connected with increasing regional differences. This implicates the existence of serious inner barriers for the development of particular regions. The analysis of the development of small and middle-size firms over the last years shows that this ecounters many barriers: - financial barriers - the lack of money and low financial and legal stability; - technological barriers - inefficient access to modern technology and the lack of money to finance modernization; - market barriers - small interest in products, which is connected with the difficulties in acquiring goods and services; - educational barriers - poor preparation for running a firm by means of modern techniques of organization, management, planning and marketing; - problems which appear during the cooperation with local and regional institutions. The above-mentioned barriers are also mentioned in the survey carried out as a part of the project entitled Innovation market in Lublin”. Half of the questioned people pointed to the lack of money and low financial stability as the main barrier of development. The next barrier mentioned was the influence of strong competition and the lack of funds to modernize the equipment to improve the standards of production and service. This means that their sensitivity to factors limiting development is the biggest. The analysis of the conveyed survey shows that the indispensable condition of development of MT companies is to facilitate the access to bank credits and to create a tax system which would be more just to firms of different size. The survey made it also possible to define the barriers for establishing a firm and its further development in the Lublin region. The most frequent are: high costs of setting up a firm, bureaucracy, limited access to funds, the lack of a clearly specified concept of the development of the Lublin region, fear of taking risk, the lack of an enterprise-friendly environment, the lack of knowledge about the institutions supporting various enterprises, problems connected with the necessity of acquiring different permissions and concessions and the lack of technological solutions initiated by the needs of companies and firms.
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Olowu, Dele. "Governance and policy relevance of the Nigerian 40-year grassroots revolution: 1976–2016." International Review of Administrative Sciences 85, no. 4 (November 29, 2017): 726–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0020852317712818.
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This article assesses the 40-year-old program of building a third level of governance in Nigeria to improve the democratic and developmental aspirations of Africa’s largest democracy, one of only two federally governed countries on the continent. The assessment relies on secondary and primary sources. The article finds that even though the reform was sustained over the years in terms of structural, financial and human resources capacity infusion and a raft of changes to democratize the institution, the program was only successful in the first four years while the military was in power. The article proposes measures to make this institution adapt to civilian governance through enhancing accountability arrangements at all the three levels of governance and an asymmetric approach to financing infrastructures in the cities and rural areas. These would enable the local government institutions to actually function as grassroots structures for building and sustaining democracy and development from below complementing the export-led strategy of the present government. Points for practitioners The current Nigerian government is pursuing an export-led strategy comprising three main elements that several industrializing countries have used successfully. Only the first two elements – macro-economic stability, economic freedom for farmers and small-scale entrepreneurs – are in place. These need to be complemented by boosting rural infrastructures which a robust political and administrative system, underpinned by strong grassroots local government system as articulated in this article, makes possible.
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ZDOROV, M. A. "MAIN TENDENCIES AND POSSIBILITIES OF CHANGE OF EXPORT SPECIALIZATION OF RUSSIA." Economic innovations 20, no. 2(67) (June 20, 2018): 48–57. http://dx.doi.org/10.31520/ei.2018.20.2(67).48-57.
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Topicality. The relevance of change of export specialization of Russia has paramount character. Methodical approaches to an economic assessment of recreational resources of the region are considered (rent, expensive, standard, etc.), their critical evaluation is given, and expediency of application of a complex method of an assessment is proved. It consists in group of all existing methods and allocations of indicators of efficiency by each group of methods. The system of calculation of an integrated (complex) indicator of an economic assessment of recreational resources is given.Aim and tasks. For stimulation of agrotourist activity in the Russian Federation we conducted researches on measurement of agrotourist capacity of the economic region of Russia united in the North-South program for a long time. Tasks of identification of agrotourist capacity of regions at respect for the principles of territorial division of labor were set, and according to rationalization of placement and specialization of branches.Research results. Import substitution of food opens ample opportunities for entrance tourism which is a peculiar form of export of food production and tourist's services. It especially is important that organic production often is perishable (hot bread, pair milk, cottage cheese, sour cream, etc.). From this it follows that tendencies of small farms in the village (LE, K(F)H, SPK, etc.) on reception of foreign tourists have the prospects. The interests of the tourists wishing to get acquainted with the multinational culture of Russia features of national crafts and crafts, dream natural places are many-dimensional complemented with consumer goods in the form of organic production.As a result of carried out researches it has turned out that indicators on tourism and agrotourism have coincided. The economic sense is quite explainable here. In the future prospect, it is expedient to transfer all internal and entrance tourism to agrotourism or tourism of rural territories, there is an insignificant part of a tourist's product in the large cities of regional value. Agrotourism on the international standards includes the small and average cities, reflecting all means of placement, natural and cultural and historical potential.Conclusions. As a result of a research, it is possible to draw a conclusion that today the scheme of the movement of financial resources - from tourist to the agricultural enterprises is of particular importance. The calculations which are carried out according to this scheme allow to define for three-year term limits of multiplicative stability of agrotourist production, components 5,9 and 11,7 trillion rubles.
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Fesenko, Arthur, Larysa Bronnikova, Victoria Chorna, and Bogdan Bondarets. "Demo-economic situation in Southern Ukraine through the regional centers residents' self-evaluation and attitudes prism." Sociology: Theory, Methods, Marketing, stmm 2020 (1) (March 16, 2020): 86–107. http://dx.doi.org/10.15407/sociology2020.01.086.
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The article presents the results of a questionnaire survey of the Southern Ukraine (Odessa, Mykolaiv, Kherson) regional centers’ residents — concerning self-esteem of their families welfare standards, their prospects about its improvement, and possible search for a better fate abroad. This research was carried out within the research project “Effective functioning and development of the regional socio-cultural environment in the context of decentralization as a pledge of Ukraine national security” (scientific project manager — Head of Sociology Sociological Cathedra of Petro Mohyla National University Iryna Meizys, timeframes for project implementation — 2017–2019). The survey revealed that a significant proportion of respondents assess their families' economic status and financial capabilities as critical, pointing to the limited ability or inability to sufficiently meet those needs that exceed current running costs. The results of the survey make it possible to evaluate the material status of regional centers residents (in a bigger or lesser extent) in the terminology of the scientific discourse of poverty by means of the categories “subjective poverty”, “relative poverty” and “deprivation” (restriction or complete deprivation). Moreover, for the most part, our respondents do not see any prospects for improving the economic situation in Ukraine in the near future: they don’t have confidence in the future, and therefore have a rather low estimate of the prospects for improving their own economic situation. The poll also showed the widespread emigration of the Southern Ukraine residents: more than half of respondents said that they were thinking about moving to a permanent place of residence in the “Western world”, that is associated in the mass consciousness of modern Ukrainians with wealth, high standards of pay, stability and prospects. In all cities of southern Ukraine, respondents' emigration / intentions still exceed the 50 percent limit. The results of the survey should also be used as indicators of social security for the functioning of the regional society. This is particularly relevant given the geopolitical challenges and threats that Ukraine is currently facing, including the Black Sea region, which is a region of strategic importance for Ukraine.
Dissertations / Theses on the topic "Financial and economic stability in cities"
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Pavlas, Miroslav. "Ekonomické ukazatele udržitelného urbanistického rozvoje středně velkých měst." Doctoral thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta architektury, 2014. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-233268.
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The aim of the thesis is to analyse how to measure an economic pillar of sustainable urban development when it is understood in terms of qualitative city development. This principly means achieving economic prosperity which does not lead to damage of the city areas and decrease the quality of life for its residents. This approach requires the creation of an appropriate set of indicators that will cover qualitative aspects of sustainable economic development. The first section summarizes existing approaches to the definition of sustainable development and ways of measuring both on the Czech and the international level. There are also defined basic characteristics of the urban development which are appropriate to express a qualitative development of the city. The second part is focused on existing ways in which sustainable development is measured, i.e. especially in the context of indicator sets. These are under detailed assessment which aim is to show how useful is to measure the economic sustainability from the qualitative point of view. In this part, the limits of using economic macro aggregates (especially Gross Domestic Product) is emphasized because there are still regarded as one of the key economic indicators of sustainable development. In the next part the thesis deals with the definition of economic prosperity and focuses on the characteristics typical for short, medium and long term perspective. Measurement of sustainable urban development in the short term is based on assessment of financial situation. From the medium-term point of view, it is crucial to assess how the city handles its property, i.e. mainly buildings and land. These property components are substantial for a further direction of city development. In the next section are designed indicators aimed at measuring the ability of the city to maintain a skilled workforce which is one of the most important conditions of long-term economic prosperity. The final theoretical part of the thesis is focused on how the long-term sustainable urban development is to be expressed in an economic way through the assessment of investments in urban infrastructure and its operational efficiency. The designed set of indicators is verified on case studies of three medium-sized Czech cities.
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Arner, Douglas W. "Law, financial stability and economic development." Thesis, Queen Mary, University of London, 2005. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.424378.
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Xue, Wenjun. "Financial Sector Development, Economic Growth and Stability." FIU Digital Commons, 2018. https://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/3715.
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My dissertation investigates financial sector development, economic growth and stability through the analysis of Chinese and international evidence. My first chapter is the introduction. The second chapter investigates the effects of Chinese financial and fiscal policies on the Chinese economic recovery in the 2008 economic stimulus Plan, covering the period from the Great Recession to 2014. This chapter explores the effects of the increase in bank credit growth with significant strain of banking health on firm-level output, employment and investment. The results demonstrate that the increase in government expenditure due to the fiscal policies has the significant effects on the very same firm-level indicators. The effects of such policies are shown to depend on firm characteristics such as size, liability ratio, profitability, ownership and industry. Regarding the dynamic effects of the policies, it is documented that the roles of Chinese financial and fiscal policies are effective but temporary on the Chinese economic recovery within about 2 years.
In the third chapter, I investigate the effects of financial sector development on the growth volatility by using the data of 50 countries. The empirical results show that the aggregate growth volatility declines from 1997 to 2014 in the global perspective while the advanced countries have much smaller growth volatility than the developing countries. Using the dynamic panel threshold model, I find that financial sector development significantly reduces growth volatility, especially in its lower regime. Financial sector development magnifies the shock of inflation volatility towards growth volatility in its higher regime. My results reveal the importance of keeping financial sector development at an optimal level, which is beneficial to reduce aggregate fluctuations and dampen the inflation shocks.
The fourth chapter examines the asymmetric roles of bank credit on the business cycle by using international evidence. The empirical results present that bank credit is pro-cyclical and amplifies the business cycle. This effect is larger in the economic peak and trough, which forms a U-shaped curve. The U-shaped influences are robust for alternative financial factors, including M2 supply and stock price. This paper contributes to explore the distinct roles of bank credit on the economy in different business cycle phases.
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Kubelec, Christopher J. "Macroeconomic policy and stability in international financial markets." Thesis, University of Warwick, 2005. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/2458/.
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This thesis examines two key areas where macroeconomic policy and stability in international financial markets intersect. Part one examines the extent to which economic policy can limit the development of misalignments in exchange rates, without sacrificing policy tools that are needed to maintain internal macroeconomic balance. This issue is addressed in a model where endogenous exchange rate fluctuations are generated by traders selecting alternative forecasting strategies on the basis of an ‘evolutionary fitness rule’, in the spirit of work by Brock and Hommes (1997, 1998). In this setting it is shown how, by changing the relative profitability of available strategies, sterilized intervention can coordinate traders onto strategies based on macroeconomic fundamentals. Empirical evidence in support of the model is provided based on data from interventions by the Japanese authorities in the 1990’s. In addition, simulations of the estimated model are used to calculate confidence intervals for the ex ante probability that interventions of a given size will be effective in pricking bubbles in the exchange rate. Part two moves on to examine the implications for macroeconomic policy of the exponential growth in recent years of the use of financial derivatives. A theoretical model is developed which demonstrates how firms’ use of derivatives for risk management purposes, while increasing the robustness of the financial system to shocks, at the same time reduces the impact of monetary policy on the macroeconomy. This effect arises because the agency costs, which enhance the impact of monetary policy through the credit channel, are reduced by firms’ usage of hedging instruments, in particular interest rate swaps. Using quarterly data on total outstanding swap contracts from 1990, empirical evidence is then presented to show how increased usage of derivatives may have influenced the impact of monetary policy in the United States.
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Galanis, Giorgos. "Heterogeneous economies : implications for inequality and financial stability." Thesis, University of Warwick, 2017. http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/92769/.
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In the first chapter we explore the relationship between income inequality and the Utilitarian ethic in a dynamic environment with endogenous preferences. Classical Utilitarians, like Bentham, believed that utilitarian principles are compatible with egalitarian ones. Although this claim is not uncontroversial, this relation holds for a utilitarian distribution of a given good among people, with identical concave utilities and exogenously set preferences. This idea breaks down if the preferences are different. In this paper we allow for endogenous preferences influenced by the existence of habits. We show how the inclusion of habit formation, studied in a dynamic environment, has egalitarian implications for a classical utilitarian distribution. Based on this result we are able to argue that Bentham’s positive views of decreasing inequality due to different consumption habits are consistent with his normative views regarding distribution. The second chapter explores the question of whether long-term income inequality consistent with equality of opportunity (EOp) ethic. In order to provide an answer we study the effectiveness of intergenerational EOp policies in an environment with two social groups and infinite generations of individuals, where the outcomes of one generation define the circumstances of the next. Circumstances in this paper have to do either with different preferences among individuals from different social groups or with both resources and preferences due to these resources. We show that in the former case EOp policies reduce inequality and also the EOp policy is the same as the Utilitarian one. In the latter case, inequality is not reduced and its level depends on the relative population of the two social groups. The third chapter studies an economy where privately informed hedge funds trade a risky asset in order to exploit potential mispricings. Hedge funds are allowed to have access to credit, by using their risky assets as collateral. We analyse the role of the degree of heterogeneity among hedge funds’s demand for the risky asset in the emergence of clustering of defaults. We find that fire-sales caused by margin calls is a necessary, yet not a sufficient condition for defaults to be clustered. We show that when the degree of heterogeneity is sufficiently high, poorly performing hedge funds are able to obtain a higher than usual market share at the end of the leverage cycle, which leads to an improvement of their performance. Consequently, their survival time is prolonged, increasing the probability of them remaining in operation until the downturn of the next leverage cycle. This leads to the increase of the probability of poorly and high-performing hedge funds to default in sync at a later time, and thus the probability of collective defaults.
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Asık, Gunes. "Empirical essays on employment, financial development and stability." Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 2014. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/1077/.
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This thesis is a collection of essays on the important problems in developing countries and aims to contribute to the empirical literature on the i) financial services sector expansion and its implications on formal employment, i) impact of early retirement incentives on labour force participation rates and finally on the iii) effectiveness of stabilization funds on reducing the boom and bust cycles in light of fluctuating international commodity prices. Chapter 1 investigates the role of financial services expansion, especially the impact of increase in consumer credits on the reduction of informal employment. I argue that liberalization should naturally lead to a decline in the share of informal employment due to the fact that international firms are less likely to employ informally and consumers whose borrowing constraints are relaxed due to more credit availability are more likely to prefer goods that are paid with consumer credits. I test this hypothesis by exploiting the regional variation in Turkey. Due to the possible endogeneity problem, I employ several instruments and find positive impact of consumer services expansion on formal employment. Two unique datasets that I explore for for possible instruments are i) the religiosity and political tendencies surveys of 2011 and 2013, and ii) regional Armenian population loss data between 1914-1917 in the former Ottoman Empire that preceded the Turkish Republic. The exogenous variation that I seek to explore accordingly are; i) Islam bans all sorts of interest charges in financial transactions and therefore residents of more conservative regions are on average less likely to demand consumer credits, and ii) Armenians were the trading and artisan class of the Empire and therefore the main users of the financial instruments and when they perished. Chapter 2 is about the impact of a Social Security System that allowed women and men to retire as early as 38 and 44 years old on labour supply decisions in Turkey. Before the pension reform of 1999, the Law 3774, dated 1992 brought incentives to those individuals who several conditions to retire at a much earlier age than the conventional 60-65 years window. Using the Statistics on Income and Living Condition (SILC) panel dataset between 2007-2010 in a Fuzzy Regression Continuity Design, we find that these incentives let to an average decline of about 16.9 hours in weekly hours worked by men aged 44-52 and 20.6 hours decline in weekly hours worked by women who are aged between 39-49 in a bandwidth of three years around the eligible age for retirement. Moreover, we find that the entitlement for retirement after 44 years old reduced the probability of labour force participation of men by about 28% to 37% while we did not find a statistically meaningful impact on the participation decisions of women. Chapter 3 explores whether sovereign wealth or stabilization funds created by governments in oil rich countries are effective in reducing volatility and ensuring a counter-cyclical or acyclical fiscal policy in line with the optimal fiscal policy literature or whether they are just another government account in practise. The existing literature on the effectiveness of stabilization funds suffers from endogeneity problems, namely i) the endogeneity between gdp and government expenditures and ii) the endogenity of the decision to establish stabilization funds. In this paper, I contribute to the literature by addressing both of these problems by using a series of Two Stage Least Square Estimations and find positive evidence in favour of stabilization funds in reducing volatility and pro-cyclicality of the fiscal policy in oil rich countries. The findings are relevant for the wider discussion of the procyclicality in developing countries, as one third of the countries which are documented to improve fiscal policy cyclicality seem to be the ones that are resource rich and have a stabilization fund in place.
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Tsopanakis, Andreas. "Essays on financial stability, systemic risk and the spillover effects of financial crises." Thesis, University of Glasgow, 2014. http://theses.gla.ac.uk/5496/.
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This thesis investigates in depth several aspects of economic activity through an aggregated metric, which aims to account for the inherent distressful characteristics of the financial system. This work is strongly motivated by the extraordinary evolution of the financial and economic landscape and the induced fragility within its foundations, especially during the last years. Chapter 1 provides an overview of the theoretical considerations on the topics discussed in this thesis. Additionally, the motivations and a brief presentation of the thesis contents are provided. Chapter 2 empirically investigates the leading indicator properties of the aggregate systemic risk indices to the real economy. In order to do that, I construct a series of financial stress indices for 25 countries. The countries are bundled into three groups (OECD, Asian, Latin American countries) and, apart from the national indexes, regional and a global index are computed. In order to do this, a number of variables from the banking sector, financial and capital markets and the foreign exchange market of each country, have been used for the implementation of these indicators. The indexes are successful early warning indicators, accurately capturing previous financial stress periods, while the financial turmoil of 2007-2009 is, without doubt, the most severe one. Forecasting exercises indicate the improved ability of indices-enhanced models to successfully predict the evolution of economic activity. Chapter 3 investigates the interrelations and financial interconnections of the Eurozone economies. Financial stress indices are constructed for, both, countries and their four most important financial markets (banking, money, equity and bond). Using VAR models, a number of innovative conclusions are reached, such that: 1) not all peripheral countries (and especially Greece and Portugal) should be blamed for the crisis exacerbation 2) there is clear evidence of stronger interdependencies between banking and bond markets and 3) a degree of segregation (in terms of financial stress interdependence) between peripheral and core Eurozone economies. The last essay aims to the deeper empirical investigation of potential crosscovariances and spillover effects between the Eurozone economies and financial markets. Full, asymmetric GARCH-BEKK models are estimated, both on a market (or 3 country) wide level and, then, with the full spectrum of Euro Area markets. In other words, we complete an empirical examination, both “within” and “between” Eurozone economies and markets. The results reveal a number of interesting insights: on country wide level, there is strong volatility transmission channel from the most heavily hit, from the crisis, economies towards the rest. Additionally, the crucial importance and role on this transmission from the banking and bond markets is underlined. Contrary to common wisdom, Greece is not the main propagator of volatility uncertainty, while it is between the most important receivers of volatility risk. The same holds for other peripheral economies, while the importance of money market is also evident in the large, “between”, empirical approach.
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Gatkowski, Mateusz. "Financial network stability and structure : econometric and network analysis." Thesis, University of Essex, 2015. http://repository.essex.ac.uk/17090/.
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Since the Global Financial Crisis, the literature of financial networks analysis has been trying to investigate the changes in the financial networks structure, that led to the instability of the financial system. The Global Financial Crisis followed by the Great Recession costed taxpayers an unprecedented $14 trillion (Alessandri and Haldane, 2009), austerity and downturns in GDP. The dynamics of the financial networks transferred the collapse of a US housing market bubble into a large meltdown of the financial systems globally. The study of systemic risk and macro-prudential policy has come to the forefront to model and manage the negative externalities of monetary, fiscal and financial sector activities that can lead to system wide instabilities and failure. The dimensions of crisis propagation have been modelled as those that can spread cross-sectionally in domino like failures with global scope, or build up over time, as in asset bubbles. The cross sectional propagation of shocks that occur due to non-payment of debt or other financial obligations with the failure of a financial intermediary or a sovereign leading to the failure of other economic entities, is called financial contagion. Cross sectional analysis of financial contagion can be done using statistical methods or by network analysis. The latter gives a structural model of the interconnections in terms of financial obligations. This dissertation uses both approaches to model financial contagion. The applications include the study of systemic risk in Eurozone Sovereign crisis, the US CDS market and the global banking network. This is organized in three self-contained chapters Our contribution to the literature begins with the study of the dynamics of the market of the Credit Default Swap (CDS) contracts for selected Eurozone sovereigns and the UK. The EWMA correlation analysis and the Granger-causality test demonstrate that there was contagion effect since correlations and cross-county interdependencies increased after August 2007. Furthermore, the IRF analysis shows that among PIIGS, the CDS spreads of Spain and Ireland have the biggest impact on the European CDS spreads, whereas the UK is found not be a source of sovereign contagion to the Eurozone. Next we perform the empirical reconstruction of the US CDS network based on the real-world data obtained from the FDIC Call Reports, and study the propagation of contagion, assuming different network structures. The financial network shows a highly tiered core-periphery structure. We find that network topology matters for the stability of the financial system. The “too interconnected to fail” phenomenon is discussed and shown to be the result of highly tiered network with central core of so called super-spreaders. In this type of network the contagion is found to be short, without multiple waves, but with very high losses brought by the core of the network. Finally we study a global banking network (GBN) model based on the Markose (2012) eigen-pair approach and propose a systemic risk indices (SRI) which provide early warning signals for systemic instability and also the rank order of the systemic importance and vulnerability of the banking systems. The empirical model is based on BIS Consolidated Banking Statistics for the exposures of 19 national banking systems to the same number of debtor countries and the data obtained from Bankscope for the equity capital of these 19 national banking systems. The SRI is based on the ratio of the netted cross-border exposures of the national banking systems to their respective equity capital. The eigen-pair method stipulates that if the maximum eigenvalue of the network exceeds the capital threshold, there is cause for concern of a contagion. This is compared with the loss multiplier SRI proposed by Castrén and Rancan (2012). The latter is found to have no early warning capabilities and peaks well after the onset of the crisis in 2009 while the eigen-pair SRI gives ample warning by late 2006 that the cross border liabilities was unsustainable in respect of the equity capital of the national banking systems. We contribute to the literature by highlighting the efficacy of the network approach to systemic stability analysis of GBNs. In particular we develop an eigen-pair approach for GBNs and prove its usefulness in an early warning context.
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Gabriel, Ivan Mark. "Financial development, economic growth and stability: A case study of South Africa’s financial reform." University of the Western Cape, 2004. http://hdl.handle.net/11394/7782.
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Magister Commercii - MComSouth Africa's unique colonial history, apartheid legacy, and ongoing transition to democratic governance drive the country's determination to attain its development objectives. Embedded in that determination is a broad social and .environmental public benefits agenda-that is, a sustainable economic development agenda. Public benefits include, inter alia, banking access, black economic empowerment and financial sector stability and efficiency. "
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Kotak, Akshay. "Essays on financial intermediation, stability, and regulation." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2015. http://ora.ox.ac.uk/objects/uuid:112b32a7-fa60-4baa-a325-15e014798cea.
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Modern banking theories provide a host of explanations for the existence of intermediaries, highlight their important influence on economic growth, delineate the risks inherent in the services they provide, and illustrate the market failures and real costs of bank failures that precipitate the need for regulation and oversight of the sector. This thesis is a collection of three essays that looks at three of these key aspects of financial intermediaries - the development of financial intermediaries, the function of the lender of last resort that has emerged as an important part of the safety net afforded to financial intermediaries, and the occurrence of financial crises. The first chapter of this thesis provides an introduction to the academic literature on financial intermediation covering different theories put forward to explain their emergence, and highlighting the risks inherent in their operation. It emphasizes the crucial functions they perform in the economy and makes a case for regulation and oversight of the sector to reduce the incidence and alleviate the effects of financial crises. The second chapter seeks to determine the policy and institutional factors that influence the development of financial institutions as measured across three dimensions - depth, efficiency, and stability. Applying the concept of the financial possibility frontier, developed by Beck and Feyen (2013) and formalized by Barajas et al. (2013b), we determine key policy variables affecting the gap between actual levels of development and benchmarks predicted by structural variables. Our dynamic panel estimation shows that inflation, trade openness, institutional quality, and banking crises significantly affect financial development. We also assess the impact of the policy variables across the different dimensions of development thereby identifying complementarities and potential trade-offs for policy makers. The third chapter models the role of the lender of last resort (LoLR) in a general equilibrium framework. We allow for heterogeneous agents and a risk-averse banking sector, and incorporate the frictions of endogenous default, liquidity, and money. Adverse supply shocks in monetary endowments trigger default, leading to deterioration in the value of bank assets, and subsequent bank illiquidity in some states of the world. LoLR intervention is then assessed with regards to its economy-wide effect on welfare, bank profitability, and the level of default. The results provide a justification for constructive ambiguity. The fourth chapter aims to provide an explanation for the incidence of financial crises by combining insights from agency theory and Minsky's financial instability hypothesis (Minsky, 1992) in a model with endogenous default. Our theoretical model shows that the probability of a financial crisis increases as the quality of shareholder information decreases. We then develop a measure for the quality of shareholder information following Simon (1989) and show that the market-wide quality of shareholder information: i) is poor (with no trend) in the Pre-SEC period (1840 to 1934); ii) improves substantially following the SEC reforms; and iii) gradually declines starting in the 1960s/70s until it is now back to pre-SEC levels. This matches up with the standard list of US financial crises (as in Reinhart and Rogoff 2009; Reinhart 2010) and supports our hypothesis that the likelihood of a financial crisis increases with deterioration in the quality of shareholder information.
Books on the topic "Financial and economic stability in cities"
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Fund, International Monetary. Global financial stability report: Durable financial stability : getting there from here. Washington, DC: International Monetary Fund, 2011.
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South-East Asian Central Banks. Research and Training Centre, ed. Addressing risks in promoting financial stability. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia: South-East Asian Central Banks, Research and Training Centre, 2011.
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Secretary-General, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Bank competition and financial stability. Paris: OECD, 2011.
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Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Secretary-General. Bank competition and financial stability. Paris: OECD, 2011.
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Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Financial stability and macroeconomic policy: A symposium. [Kansas City, Mo.]: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 2010.
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Crockett, Andrew. The theory and practice of financial stability. Princeton, N.J: International Finance Section, Princeton University, 1997.
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Outreville, J. François. Financial development, human capital, and political stability. Geneva: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, 1999.
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Cecchetti, Stephen G. Financial structure, macroeconomic stability and monetary policy. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2001.
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India, monetary policy, financial stability, and other essays. New Delhi: Academic Foundation, 2009.
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Rangarajan, C. India, monetary policy, financial stability, and other essays. New Delhi: Academic Foundation, 2009.
Find full textBook chapters on the topic "Financial and economic stability in cities"
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Li, David Daokui, Jinjian Shi, Dapeng Chen, Lin Lu, Xushuo Wang, and Kangyi Liu. "Financial Deepening and Financial Stability." In Economic Lessons from China’s Forty Years of Reform and Opening-up, 67–117. Singapore: Springer Singapore, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-981-33-4520-1_4.
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Carbó-Valverde, Santiago, and Luis Pedauga Sánchez. "Financial Stability and Economic Growth." In Crisis, Risk and Stability in Financial Markets, 8–23. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137001832_2.
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Goodhart, C. A. E. "Money, Stability and Growth." In Financial Development and Economic Growth, 183–206. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2004. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230374270_7.
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Gabrisch, Hubert, and Jens Hölscher. "Financial Institutions, Stability and Growth." In The Successes and Failures of Economic Transition, 42–59. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780230626584_4.
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de Grauwe, P. "European Monetary Cooperation and Financial Stability." In Monetary Conditions for Economic Recovery, 161–86. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1985. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-5149-5_9.
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Griffith-Jones, Stephany, and José Antonio Ocampo. "Global Governance for Financial Stability." In Contributions to Economic Theory, Policy, Development and Finance, 273–95. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137450968_13.
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Crockett, Andrew D. "National financial liberalisation and international economic cooperation." In Monetary Stability through International Cooperation, 247–65. Dordrecht: Springer Netherlands, 1994. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-017-2358-9_19.
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Elson, Anthony. "Economic Policy Choices—Macroeconomic and Financial Stability." In Globalization and Development, 73–93. New York: Palgrave Macmillan US, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9781137316394_5.
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Branson, William H. "National Economic Policies and International Financial Stability." In The International System between New Integration and Neo-Protectionism, 3–36. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1996. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-24664-9_1.
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Schridde, Henning. "Socio-Economic Exclusion and the Stability of the Urban Social Order." In Cities in Transition, 93–121. London: Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/9780333982273_8.
Full textConference papers on the topic "Financial and economic stability in cities"
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Emanova, A. A., and T. A. Stavrova. "On the need for comprehensive improvement of state control and supervision in the sphere of financial legal relations." In VIII Information school of a young scientist. Central Scientific Library of the Urals Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.32460/ishmu-2020-8-0026.
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In each state, organization of the management over public finances plays a crucial role, and a well-established management system is an integral part of public administration. In order to ensure the stability and balance of the country's economy, the task of improving the effectiveness of the state financial management is one of the most important tasks of the state. The result of risk management in the economy, as well as the socio-economic well–being of citizens (and of other aspects) depends on how the issue of the management in the sphere of public (state) Finance is resolved in society.
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Aytuganova, Cipar. "Current Problems in Labor Quality in Kyrgyzstan." In International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Eurasian Economists Association, 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.36880/c02.00369.
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Formation or implementation of high-quality labor is an actual problem of the world economy and always considered in the theory and practice. Labor quality is the realization of increased productivity and performance of the work and responsibilities, also it is known as the main factor of economic growth in economics. Since 1991, the importance of labor quality for development of national economy and macroeconomic stability in Kyrgyzstan is growing and becoming actual in globalization and integration process, financial, informational, scientific and technical cooperation, is requiring researching. This problem studied by academics O. Bogomolov, L. Kudryavtsev, G.Kolodko, T.Koychuev and others. In economics labor defines as a set of three groups of labor skills and abilities of individuals. This group of skills combines the biological, economic and social side of man. Development of labor quality is considered at three levels: low, medium and high quality. In all states, there are complex of integrated structures that seek efficiency in own activity. In the transition period for Kyrgyzstan it is necessary to solve social problems, improve living standards. It’s necessary to abide execution of laws by from the President to the citizen, establish the subordination of society to laws, improve moral of public servants, gain people's trust in government, form up the economic culture, to eliminate the shadow economy and corruption. Economic culture must become an integral part of national ideology.
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Macklem, Tiff. "Remarks on international financial stability." In Conference on Global Economic Modeling. WORLD SCIENTIFIC, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1142/9789813220447_0007.
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Barcelos, Mauricio, André Barcelos, Flávia Bernardini, and Guido Vaz Silva. "Analyzing the use of economic and financial indicators in smart cities context." In dg.o '18: 19th Annual International Conference on Digital Government Research. New York, NY, USA: ACM, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/3209281.3209407.
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Pyroh, Olha, Lyudmyla Katan, and Vladimir Katan. "Stability of Economic Development of Global Cities: Evaluation and Perspectives." In Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Strategies, Models and Technologies of Economic Systems Management (SMTESM 2019). Paris, France: Atlantis Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/smtesm-19.2019.20.
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Hindrayani, Aniek, and Khresna Bayu Sangka. "The Importance of Financial Educations against Financial Stability through Banking Sector and Higher Education in Indonesia." In 2nd International Conference on Economic Education and Entrepreneurship. SCITEPRESS - Science and Technology Publications, 2017. http://dx.doi.org/10.5220/0006881501100115.
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Gaynutdinov, Bulat, Aleksey Lebedev, and Elena Razumovskaya. "Concepts of Economic Growth for Financial Stability of the State." In International Conference on Economics, Management and Technologies 2020 (ICEMT 2020). Paris, France: Atlantis Press, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.200509.008.
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Biloshapka, Viktoriia, Igor Britchenko, and Iryna Okhrymenko. "Central banks as leaders in ensuring financial stability." In Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on Social, Economic, and Academic Leadership (ICSEAL 2019). Paris, France: Atlantis Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/icseal-19.2019.29.
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Almula-dhanoon, Mufeed. "Nexus Between Political Stability and Economic Growth– Evidence from Middle East Countries." In 3rd International Conference on Administrative & Financial Sciences. Cihan University - Erbil, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.24086/afs2020/paper.283.
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There is much research that has discussed the relationship between political stability and economic growth, but only a few have attempted to explore the causal relationship between them. This paper aims to examine the causative relations between political instability (measured by the government stability index), and economic growth for fourteen countries in the Middle East for the period 1984-2017. The methodology based on the application of Granger Toda-Yamamoto (T-Y) method for the purpose of analyzing the causal relationship between the two variables. The empirical results show that there is no evident on causal relation between political stability and economic growth.
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Zhuang, Yaocheng, and Lingjie Meng. "Financial Support for Economic Development Efficiency Research — Based on 13 Cities in Jiangsu Province." In Proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Economics, Management, Law and Education (EMLE 2019). Paris, France: Atlantis Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.2991/aebmr.k.191225.038.
Full textReports on the topic "Financial and economic stability in cities"
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Sabatelle, Jason, Adonis Caramintzos, and Jamie McCall. Small Business COVID-19 Lending Programs: Fostering Social Capital and Financial Stability. Carolina Small Business Development Fund, January 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.46712/covid.lending.
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In times of crisis, investment in entrepreneurial ventures tends to decline. Early data suggest the decline in small business investments due to the pandemic will be historic in scope and depth. Community development lending practices aim to sustain small firms until they can resume their normal course of business. Affordable financing provides capital injections into small businesses which can help to cushion against COVID-19 induced economic shocks. Using Carolina Small Business Development Fund’s lending data as a case study, this analysis considers the effect of COVID-19 response programs. These activities are oriented towards creating a “social safety net” of Main Street businesses that boost social capital development, community trust, and financial stability. We believe the findings are likely generalizable to lending activities by other community development financial institutions.
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Chandrasekhar, C. P. The Long Search for Stability: Financial Cooperation to Address Global Risks in the East Asian Region. Institute for New Economic Thinking Working Paper Series, March 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.36687/inetwp153.
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Forced by the 1997 Southeast Asian crisis to recognize the external vulnerabilities that openness to volatile capital flows result in and upset over the post-crisis policy responses imposed by the IMF, countries in the sub-region saw the need for a regional financial safety net that can pre-empt or mitigate future crises. At the outset, the aim of the initiative, then led by Japan, was to create a facility or design a mechanism that was independent of the United States and the IMF, since the former was less concerned with vulnerabilities in Asia than it was in Latin America and that the latter’s recommendations proved damaging for countries in the region. But US opposition and inherited geopolitical tensions in the region blocked Japan’s initial proposal to establish an Asian Monetary Fund, a kind of regional IMF. As an alternative, the ASEAN+3 grouping (ASEAN members plus China, Japan and South Korea) opted for more flexible arrangements, at the core of which was a network of multilateral and bilateral central bank swap agreements. While central bank swap agreements have played a role in crisis management, the effort to make them the central instruments of a cooperatively established regional safety net, the Chiang Mai Initiative, failed. During the crises of 2008 and 2020 countries covered by the Initiative chose not to rely on the facility, preferring to turn to multilateral institutions such as the ADB, World Bank and IMF or enter into bilateral agreements within and outside the region for assistance. The fundamental problem was that because of an effort to appease the US and the IMF and the use of the IMF as a foil against the dominance of a regional power like Japan, the regional arrangement was not a real alternative to traditional sources of balance of payments support. In particular, access to significant financial assistance under the arrangement required a country to be supported first by an IMF program and be subject to the IMF’s conditions and surveillance. The failure of the multilateral effort meant that a specifically Asian safety net independent of the US and the IMF had to be one constructed by a regional power involving support for a network of bilateral agreements. Japan was the first regional power to seek to build such a network through it post-1997 Miyazawa Initiative. But its own complex relationship with the US meant that its intervention could not be sustained, more so because of the crisis that engulfed Japan in 1990. But the prospect of regional independence in crisis resolution has revived with the rise of China as a regional and global power. This time both economics and China’s independence from the US seem to improve prospects of successful regional cooperation to address financial vulnerability. A history of tensions between China and its neighbours and the fear of Chinese dominance may yet lead to one more failure. But, as of now, the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s support for a large number of bilateral swap arrangements and its participation in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership seem to suggest that Asian countries may finally come into their own.
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Financial Stability Report - September 2015. Banco de la República, August 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/rept-estab-fin.sem2.eng-2015.
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From this edition, the Financial Stability Report will have fewer pages with some changes in its structure. The purpose of this change is to present the most relevant facts of the financial system and their implications on the financial stability. This allows displaying the analysis more concisely and clearly, as it will focus on describing the evolution of the variables that have the greatest impact on the performance of the financial system, for estimating then the effect of a possible materialization of these risks on the financial health of the institutions. The changing dynamics of the risks faced by the financial system implies that the content of the Report adopts this new structure; therefore, some analyses and series that were regularly included will not necessarily be in each issue. However, the statistical annex that accompanies the publication of the Report will continue to present the series that were traditionally included, regardless of whether or not they are part of the content of the Report. In this way we expect to contribute in a more comprehensive way to the study and analysis of the stability of the Colombian financial system. Executive Summary During the first half of 2015, the main advanced economies showed a slow recovery on their growth, while emerging economies continued with their slowdown trend. Domestic demand in the United States allowed for stabilization on its average growth for the first half of the year, while other developed economies such as the United Kingdom, the euro zone, and Japan showed a more gradual recovery. On the other hand, the Chinese economy exhibited the lowest growth rate in five years, which has resulted in lower global dynamism. This has led to a fall in prices of the main export goods of some Latin American economies, especially oil, whose price has also responded to a larger global supply. The decrease in the terms of trade of the Latin American economies has had an impact on national income, domestic demand, and growth. This scenario has been reflected in increases in sovereign risk spreads, devaluations of stock indices, and depreciation of the exchange rates of most countries in the region. For Colombia, the fall in oil prices has also led to a decline in the terms of trade, resulting in pressure on the dynamics of national income. Additionally, the lower demand for exports helped to widen the current account deficit. This affected the prospects and economic growth of the country during the first half of 2015. This economic context could have an impact on the payment capacity of debtors and on the valuation of investments, affecting the soundness of the financial system. However, the results of the analysis featured in this edition of the Report show that, facing an adverse scenario, the vulnerability of the financial system in terms of solvency and liquidity is low. The analysis of the current situation of credit institutions (CI) shows that growth of the gross loan portfolio remained relatively stable, as well as the loan portfolio quality indicators, except for microcredit, which showed a decrease in these indicators. Regarding liabilities, traditional sources of funding have lost market share versus non-traditional ones (bonds, money market operations and in the interbank market), but still represent more than 70%. Moreover, the solvency indicator remained relatively stable. As for non-banking financial institutions (NBFI), the slowdown observed during the first six months of 2015 in the real annual growth of the assets total, both in the proprietary and third party position, stands out. The analysis of the main debtors of the financial system shows that indebtedness of the private corporate sector has increased in the last year, mostly driven by an increase in the debt balance with domestic and foreign financial institutions. However, the increase in this latter source of funding has been influenced by the depreciation of the Colombian peso vis-à-vis the US dollar since mid-2014. The financial indicators reflected a favorable behavior with respect to the historical average, except for the profitability indicators; although they were below the average, they have shown improvement in the last year. By economic sector, it is noted that the firms focused on farming, mining and transportation activities recorded the highest levels of risk perception by credit institutions, and the largest increases in default levels with respect to those observed in December 2014. Meanwhile, households have shown an increase in the financial burden, mainly due to growth in the consumer loan portfolio, in which the modalities of credit card, payroll deductible loan, revolving and vehicle loan are those that have reported greater increases in risk indicators. On the side of investments that could be affected by the devaluation in the portfolio of credit institutions and non-banking financial institutions (NBFI), the largest share of public debt securities, variable-yield securities and domestic private debt securities is highlighted. The value of these portfolios fell between February and August 2015, driven by the devaluation in the market of these investments throughout the year. Furthermore, the analysis of the liquidity risk indicator (LRI) shows that all intermediaries showed adequate levels and exhibit a stable behavior. Likewise, the fragility analysis of the financial system associated with the increase in the use of non-traditional funding sources does not evidence a greater exposure to liquidity risk. Stress tests assess the impact of the possible joint materialization of credit and market risks, and reveal that neither the aggregate solvency indicator, nor the liquidity risk indicator (LRI) of the system would be below the established legal limits. The entities that result more individually affected have a low share in the total assets of the credit institutions; therefore, a risk to the financial system as a whole is not observed. José Darío Uribe Governor
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Financial Stability Report - First Semester of 2020. Banco de la República de Colombia, March 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/rept-estab-fin.1sem.eng-2020.
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In the face of the multiple shocks currently experienced by the domestic economy (resulting from the drop in oil prices and the appearance of a global pandemic), the Colombian financial system is in a position of sound solvency and adequate liquidity. At the same time, credit quality has been recovering and the exposure of credit institutions to firms with currency mismatches has declined relative to previous episodes of sudden drops in oil prices. These trends are reflected in the recent fading of red and blue tonalities in the performance and credit risk segments of the risk heatmaps in Graphs A and B.1 Naturally, the sudden, unanticipated change in macroeconomic conditions has caused the appearance of vulnerabilities for short-term financial stability. These vulnerabilities require close and continuous monitoring on the part of economic authorities. The main vulnerability is the response of credit and credit risk to a potential, temporarily extreme macroeconomic situation in the context of: (i) recently increased exposure of some banks to household sector, and (ii) reductions in net interest income that have led to a decline in the profitability of the banking business in the recent past. Furthermore, as a consequence of greater uncertainty and risk aversion, occasional problems may arise in the distribution of liquidity between agents and financial markets. With regards to local markets, spikes have been registered in the volatility of public and private fixed income securities in recent weeks that are consistent with the behavior of the international markets and have had a significant impact on the liquidity of those instruments (red portions in the most recent past of some market risk items on the map in Graph A). In order to adopt a forward-looking approach to those vulnerabilities, this Report presents a stress test that evaluates the resilience of credit institutions in the event of a hypothetical scenario thatseeks to simulate an extreme version of current macroeconomic conditions. The scenario assumes a hypothetical negative growth that is temporarily strong but recovers going into the middle of the coming year and has extreme effects on credit quality. The results suggest that credit institutions have the ability to withstand a significant deterioration in economic conditions in the short term. Even though there could be a strong impact on credit, liquidity, and profitability under the scenario being considered, aggregate capital ratios would probably remain at above their regulatory limits over the horizon of a year. In this context, the recent measures taken by both Banco de la República and the Office of the Financial Superintendent of Colombia that are intended to help preserve the financial stability of the Colombian economy become highly relevant. In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system’s security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the outlook for financial stability at this juncture and will make the decisions that are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate the flow of sufficient credit and liquidity resources, and further the smooth functioning of the payment system. Juan José Echavarría Governor
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Financial Stability Report - Second Semester of 2020. Banco de la República de Colombia, March 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/rept-estab-fin.sem2.eng-2020.
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The Colombian financial system has not suffered major structural disruptions during these months of deep economic contraction and has continued to carry out its basic functions as usual, thus facilitating the economy's response to extreme conditions. This is the result of the soundness of financial institutions at the beginning of the crisis, which was reflected in high liquidity and capital adequacy indicators as well as in the timely response of various authorities. Banco de la República lowered its policy interest rates 250 points to 1.75%, the lowest level since the creation of the new independent bank in 1991, and provided ample temporary and permanent liquidity in both pesos and foreign currency. The Office of the Financial Superintendent of Colombia, in turn, adopted prudential measures to facilitate changes in the conditions for loans in effect and temporary rules for rating and loan-loss provisions. Finally, the national government expanded the transfers as well as the guaranteed credit programs for the economy. The supply of real credit (i.e. discounting inflation) in the economy is 4% higher today than it was 12 months ago with especially marked growth in the housing (5.6%) and commercial (4.7%) loan portfolios (2.3% in consumer and -0.1% in microloans), but there have been significant changes over time. During the first few months of the quarantine, firms increased their demands for liquidity sharply while consumers reduced theirs. Since then, the growth of credit to firms has tended to slow down, while consumer and housing credit has grown. The financial system has responded satisfactorily to the changes in the respective demands of each group or sector and loans may grow at high rates in 2021 if GDP grows at rates close to 4.6% as the technical staff at the Bank expects; but the forecasts are highly uncertain. After the strict quarantine implemented by authorities in Colombia, the turmoil seen in March and early April, which was evident in the sudden reddening of macroeconomic variables on the risk heatmap in Graph A,[1] and the drop in crude oil and coal prices (note the high volatility registered in market risk for the region on Graph A) the local financial markets stabilized relatively quickly. Banco de la República’s credible and sustained policy response played a decisive role in this stabilization in terms of liquidity provision through a sharp expansion of repo operations (and changes in amounts, terms, counterparties, and eligible instruments), the purchases of public and private debt, and the reduction in bank reserve requirements. In this respect, there is now abundant aggregate liquidity and significant improvements in the liquidity position of investment funds. In this context, the main vulnerability factor for financial stability in the short term is still the high degree of uncertainty surrounding loan quality. First, the future trajectory of the number of people infected and deceased by the virus and the possible need for additional health measures is uncertain. For that reason, there is also uncertainty about the path for economic recovery in the short and medium term. Second, the degree to which the current shock will be reflected in loan quality once the risk materializes in banks’ financial statements is uncertain. For the time being, the credit risk heatmap (Graph B) indicates that non-performing and risky loans have not shown major deterioration, but past experience indicates that periods of sharp economic slowdown eventually tend to coincide with rises in non-performing loans: the calculations included in this report suggest that the impact of the recession on credit quality could be significant in the short term. This is particularly worrying since the profitability of credit establishments has been declining in recent months, and this could affect their ability to provide credit to the real sector of the economy. In order to adopt a forward-looking approach to this vulnerability, this Report presents several stress tests that evaluate the resilience of the liquidity and capital adequacy of credit institutions and investment funds in the event of a hypothetical scenario that seeks to simulate an extreme version of current macroeconomic conditions. The results suggest that even though there could be strong impacts on the credit institutions’ volume of credit and profitability under such scenarios, aggregate indicators of total and core capital adequacy will probably remain at levels that are above the regulatory limits over the horizon of a year. At the same time, the exercises highlight the high capacity of the system's liquidity to face adverse scenarios. In compliance with its constitutional objectives and in coordination with the financial system's security network, Banco de la República will continue to closely monitor the outlook for financial stability at this juncture and will make the decisions that are necessary to ensure the proper functioning of the economy, facilitate the flow of sufficient credit and liquidity resources, and further the smooth operation of the payment systems. Juan José Echavarría Governor
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National report 2009-2019 - Rural NEET in Poland. OST Action CA 18213: Rural NEET Youth Network: Modeling the risks underlying rural NEETs social exclusion, December 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.15847/cisrnyn.nepl.2020.12.
Full textAbstract:
The report outlines the evolution of the labour market situation of young people in Poland between 2009 and 2019. Particular attention was paid to describe how the situation has changed across different age subgroups and degree of urbanization. The analysis includes descriptive statistics of the selected labour market indicators (employment and unem-ployment rate, NEET rate) along with educational and population data extracted from the Eurostat public datasets. The report shows that youth population in Poland has been declining over the past decade, especially in cities and rural areas. Labour market situation of young Poles worsened in the aftermath of financial and economic crisis. Since 2013 is has improved considerably. In 2019,the unemployment rate was below the pre-recession level and the lowest since the political and economic transformation. The pattern of labour market situation evolution was similar across all age subgroups and degrees of urbanisation, although those from the younger sub-groups were more vulnerable to economic fluctuations. In 2019, the difference between rural and urban areas in the unemployment level was minor. The employment rate and the NEET rate, however, was clearly higher in cities which suggests that many of those living in towns and rural areas remain outside the labour force. The level of school dropouts among youth is one of the lowest in the EU and has been relatively stable over the past decade. It is slightly higher in towns and rural areas than in cities, but the difference is not significant.