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Mohti, Wahbeeah. "Essays on frontier markets: financial integration, financial market efficiency, financial contagion." Doctoral thesis, Universidade de Évora, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/10174/24579.
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This thesis investigates financial integration, market efficiency, and financial contagion in frontier markets in order to evaluate the potentiality of portfolio diversification. The first essay evaluates Asian frontier and emerging equity markets’ regional and global integration using Gregory and Hansen co-integration tests and detrended cross correlation analysis (DCCA). The results suggest that Asian emerging markets show some evidence of integration with both regional and global markets. From Asian frontier markets, Pakistan is the only one with evidence of integration with both benchmarks. The second essay appraises weak form efficiency of frontier markets to investigate the global correlation and long-range dependence, applying mutual information and Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA). The results indicate that Slovenia is the only case where there is evidence compatible with weak form efficiency. The third essay investigates contagion from the US subprime financial crisis to frontier stock markets using Copula models to investigate dependence structures between US and frontier stock markets, before and during US subprime financial crisis. The results show that Croatia and Romania are the ones, most affected by the US subprime crisis. Subsequently, the forth essay investigates the contagion from both recent crises; US subprime financial crisis and European debt crisis to frontier stock market, applying DCCA correlation coefficients to investigate the linkage between crisis originating country stock markets (US and Greece) and those of frontier markets, to assess whether the correlation coefficients significantly increase with the crises. The results indicate that from US subprime crisis, European frontier markets are the ones most affected, followed by Middle Eastern markets. In case of European debt crisis (originated in Greece), the findings show that contagion effect is weaker in frontier markets; Ensaios sobre Mercados de Fronteira: Integração Financeira, Eficiência de Mercados, Contágio Financeiro
Sumário:
Esta tese investiga a integração financeira, eficiência de mercado e contágio financeiro nos chamados “mercados de fronteira”, a fim de avaliar o respetivo potencial de diversificação internacional de carteiras. O primeiro ensaio avalia a integração regional e global dos mercados de capitais emergentes e globais Asiáticos, sendo utilizados o teste de cointegração de Gregory e Hansen e a detrended cross correlation analysis (DCCA). Os resultados sugerem que os mercados emergentes asiáticos mostram algumas evidências de integração com os mercados regional e global. Dos mercados de fronteira asiática, o Paquistão é o único com evidências de integração com os dois benchmarks. O segundo ensaio avalia a eficiência da forma fraca dos mercados de fronteira para investigar a correlação global e a dependência longa, aplicando a informação mútua e a Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA). Os resultados indicam que a Eslovénia é o único caso em que há evidências compatíveis com a hipótese d eficiência na forma fraca. O terceiro ensaio investiga o contágio da crise financeira subprime dos EUA para os mercados de fronteira, sendo usados modelos Copula para investigar as estruturas de dependência entre os mercados de ações dos EUA e os mercados de fronteira, antes e durante a crise financeira dos Estados Unidos. Os resultados mostram que a Croácia e a Roménia são os mercados mais afetados pela crise do subprime dos EUA. Posteriormente, o quarto ensaio investiga o contágio de ambas as crises recentes; crise financeira subprime dos EUA e crise da dívida europeia para os mercados de fronteira, aplicando coeficientes de correlação DCCA para investigar a ligação entre os mercados de ações de países EUA e Grécia e mercados de fronteira. Os resultados indicam que, relativamente à crise do subprime nos EUA, os mercados de fronteira europeus são os mais afetados, seguidos pelos mercados do Médio Oriente. Relativamente à crise da dívida soberana (originada na Grécia), os resultados mostram que o efeito de contágio é menor nos mercados de fronteira analisados.
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Rahman, Rizwan Tanvir. "Market integrity issues in financial markets." Thesis, The University of Sydney, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/2123/12552.
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This dissertation investigates market integrity issues across a range of financial markets. The essays investigate the leakage of information, information asymmetry, market manipulation, and off-market trading across the carbon, equity, and option markets. The study spans across the European Union Emissions Allowances (EUA) futures market, the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) equity market, and the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) option market (AOM). The first essay examines the impact of European Union emissions trading scheme (EU ETS) national allocation plan (NAP) announcements on carbon markets. The findings show that Phase II announcements have an influence on both Phase I & II front futures and sole Phase II futures carbon returns. In addition, the results indicate that the announcements have no significant impact on volatility. Together, the findings suggest a systematic leakage of information across all types of announcements. The second essay examines trade cancellations on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX). Trade cancellations are trades that are determined to have been made in error by both parties, and are subsequently cancelled. Results indicate return reversal patterns consistent with manipulative activity following the initial trades. Findings on volume, return, and volatility around the trades are also consistent with the empirical findings on market manipulation in the literature. The final essay examines the impact of large off-market option trades on the Australian Options Market (AOM). The results reveal that large off-market option trades receive price improvement when compared to the quoted prices at the time of the trade. Further, although large off-market trades experience some temporary price effects there is no evidence of significant leakage or permanent price effects. Finally, cumulative abnormal returns in the days surrounding the trades reveal no significant price patterns.
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Das, Sanmay. "Intelligent Market-Making in Artificial Financial Markets." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2003. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/5570.
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This thesis describes and evaluates a market-making algorithm for setting prices in financial markets with asymmetric information, and analyzes the properties of artificial markets in which the algorithm is used. The core of our algorithm is a technique for maintaining an online probability density estimate of the underlying value of a stock. Previous theoretical work on market-making has led to price-setting equations for which solutions cannot be achieved in practice, whereas empirical work on algorithms for market-making has focused on sets of heuristics and rules that lack theoretical justification. The algorithm presented in this thesis is theoretically justified by results in finance, and at the same time flexible enough to be easily extended by incorporating modules for dealing with considerations like portfolio risk and competition from other market-makers. We analyze the performance of our algorithm experimentally in artificial markets with different parameter settings and find that many reasonable real-world properties emerge. For example, the spread increases in response to uncertainty about the true value of a stock, average spreads tend to be higher in more volatile markets, and market-makers with lower average spreads perform better in environments with multiple competitive market-makers. In addition, the time series data generated by simple markets populated with market-makers using our algorithm replicate properties of real-world financial time series, such as volatility clustering and the fat-tailed nature of return distributions, without the need to specify explicit models for opinion propagation and herd behavior in the trading crowd.
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Morales, Raffaello. "Unwinding financial market complexity." Thesis, King's College London (University of London), 2014. https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/unwinding-financial-market-complexity(915c2237-8f7c-4fe7-831f-2bca1a0f6f68).html.
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Complex systems are characterised by different distinguishing aspects often associated with completely separate behaviours. In financial markets, paramount example of complex systems, two of these aspects stand out in characterising the statistical properties of the many constituents: one is multifractality, a feature which describes the departure of financial time series from purely random processes and is therefore a measure of complexity of the prices; the other is the cross-correlation structure between assets, which encloses information about the market organisation and can reveal dominant factors as well as hierarchical properties. In this thesis I have studied the relationship between these two distinctive properties of financial markets. I have first unveiled new empirical properties of stock returns, casting new light on the latent mechanism governing price dynamics and interactions, and I have then proposed a model which reproduces the observed properties. I have investigated multifractality dynamically on stock returns after having introduced the weighted generalised Hurst exponent, a study that has revealed remarkable increasing trends in the dynamical scaling exponents for firms bailed-out after the 2008 financial crisis. I have then tested the significance of dynamical fluctuations of multifractality against a well-established multifractal model, the Multifractal Random Walk (MRW). The hypothesis of constant multifractality in financial markets has been rejected in many cases revealing a much more complex behaviour of financial time series. I have then linked the multifractal behaviour in financial markets to the cross-correlation structure, showing that the two properties are indeed related. I have investigated the relationship between a proxy of multifractality and cross-correlation hierarchical properties on different markets which have confirmed the result. After having thoroughly reviewed the existing literature on multivariate models, I have proposed a dynamical multivariate model able to reproduce the empirical facts reported in this thesis along with an array of other well-established stylised facts, thus unifying correlation and multifractality in a unique coherent framework.
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Cândido, Maria Teresa. "Financial market liquidity, asset pricing, and financial crises /." Diss., Connect to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC campuses, 1998. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p9914068.
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Hui, Zizhen <1993>. "Analysis of the differences between the U.S. financial market and the Chinese financial market." Master's Degree Thesis, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, 2022. http://hdl.handle.net/10579/20731.
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In recent years, the epidemic has swept the globe, with manufacturing, consumption and investment, everywhere severely damaged. The world economy is in the worst position it has been in since the Great Depression. While the disease was occurring, the world's economies were slowly recovering. Changes in the financial structure are driving the financial economy as economic growth and financial activity go hand in hand. The financial structure is an important indicator of a country's financial development and has become an important driver of economic growth. This paper describes in detail the financial development of the U.S. and Chinese financial markets from the perspective of historical development and provides an in-depth study of the financial structure of the U.S. and China. The purpose of this paper is to compare the major differences between the U.S. and Chinese financial markets and to further examine the impact of the different financial structures of the U.S. and China on economic growth.
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Davies, Ryan. "Topics in financial market microstructure." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2001. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk3/ftp05/NQ63416.pdf.
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Wu, Ding Ph D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology. "Essays on financial market imperfections." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/39721.
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Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Economics, 2007.Includes bibliographical references.
This dissertation consists of three chapters on financial market imperfections, in particular, information imperfections. Chapter 1 studies how the existence of a fixed cost per transaction faced by uninformed investors hampers information revelation through price and exacerbates adverse selection. The exacerbated adverse selection explains one long-standing puzzle in finance - the momentum anomaly. Properly adjusting stock returns for adverse selection by using data on trading volume substantially mitigates momentum-based arbitrage profits for the sample period from 1983 to 2004. Chapter 2 studies how information asymmetry prevents perfect risk-sharing and offers insights on stock return behavior. Chapter 3 explores the idea of Tobin's tax in the context of an emerging market and in particular examines the cost effects on speculation in the Chinese stock market.
by Ding Wu.
Ph.D.
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Hollstein, Fabian [Verfasser]. "Market beta and factor risk premia in financial markets / Fabian Hollstein." Hannover : Technische Informationsbibliothek (TIB), 2015. http://d-nb.info/1081961864/34.
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Paudyal, Krishna N. "Macro economic announcements and financial asset markets : tests of market efficiency." Thesis, University of Strathclyde, 1990. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.293214.
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Zebedee, Allan A. "The flow of information in financial markets : a market microstructure examination /." Diss., Connect to a 24 p. preview or request complete full text in PDF format. Access restricted to UC campuses, 2001. http://wwwlib.umi.com/cr/ucsd/fullcit?p3026388.
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Raoli, Elisa. "Market misvaluation and earnings management. Evidence from Italian financial market." Doctoral thesis, Luiss Guido Carli, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/11385/200809.
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Classical and behavioural finance theory overview. Classical finance theory. Market Inefficiencies. Behavioural Finance Theory. Investors’ Sentiment. Stock market overvaluation and undervaluation. Earnings management. Earnings management definition. The relationship between earnings and stock market. The relation between earnings management and stock market incentives. Detecting Earnings Management. The agency theory of overvalued equity and earnings management. Empirical evidences supporting the Jensen’s agency cost of overvalued equity and earnings management. Hypothesis Development. The Italian Insider System. The Italian institutional contest. Earnings management in Italy. Sample, Data and Variables’ Description. Sample description and data gathering. Variables’ description. Dependent variable: Change in Current Accruals and Change in Discretionary Accruals. Independent variable: Change in Market to Book Ratio. Control Variables. Model Specification and Descriptive Statistics. Model Specification. Descriptive statistics. Primary test – Changes in Total Accruals as a Dependent Variable. Robustness checks. Alternative sample composition. Alternative model specification.
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Li, Jia. "China's Financial Market Fragmentation,1978-2004." Graduate School of International Development, Nagoya University, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/2237/7306.
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Ma, Zishun. "Topics in financial market risk modelling." Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10443/1675.
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The growth of the financial risk management industry has been motivated by the increased volatility of financial markets combined with the rapid innovation of derivatives. Since the 1970s, several financial crises have occurred globally with devastating consequences for financial and non-financial institutions and for the real economy. The most recent US subprime crisis led to enormous losses for financial and non-financial institutions and to a recession in many countries including the US and UK. A common lesson from these crises is that advanced financial risk management systems are required. Financial risk management is a continuous process of identifying, modeling, forecasting and monitoring risk exposures arising from financial investments. The Value at Risk (VaR) methodology has served as one of the most important tools used in this process. This quantitative tool, which was first invented by JPMorgan in its Risk-Metrics system in 1995, has undergone a considerable revolution and development during the last 15 years. It has now become one of the most prominent tools employed by financial institutions, regulators, asset managers and nonfinancial corporations for risk measurement. My PhD research undertakes a comprehensive and practical study of market risk modeling in modern finance using the VaR methodology. Two newly developed risk models are proposed in this research, which are derived by integrating volatility modeling and the quantile regression technique. Compared to the existing risk models, these two new models place more emphasis on dynamic risk adjustment. The empirical results on both real and simulated data shows that under certain circumstances, the risk prediction generated from these models is more accurate and efficient in capturing time varying risk evolution than traditional risk measures. Academically, the aim of this research is to make some improvements and extensions of the existing market risk modeling techniques. In practice, the purpose of this research is to support risk managers developing a dynamic market risk measurement system, which will function well for different market states and asset categories. The system can be used by financial institutions and non-financial institutions for either passive risk measurement or active risk control.
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Pang, Chung-kit, and 彭仲傑. "Financial market and Hong Kong economy." Thesis, The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong), 1991. http://hub.hku.hk/bib/B31265066.
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Clare, Andrew. "Asset pricing and financial market regulation." Thesis, University of Southampton, 1992. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.315447.
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Feijer, Diego (Diego Francisco Feijer Rovira). "Financial market failures and systemic crises." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/101570.
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Thesis: Ph. D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, 2015.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.
Includes bibliographical references (pages 97-103).
This thesis contributes to the theoretical literature that studies the macroeconomic implications of financial frictions. It develops frameworks to address different financial market failures, and evaluate preventive policies to mitigate the vulnerability of the economy to costly systemic crises. First, it identifies a credit risk (fire sale) externality that justifies the macroprudential regulation of short-term debt to mitigate the probability of systemic bank runs. Without regulation, banks do not internalize how their funding decisions affects the terms at which other market participants can obtain credit. The formal welfare study conducted, provides a general equilibrium notion of systemic risk that captures both fundamental insolvency and illiquidity risk. It also connects this measure with the optimal Pigouvian (corrective) tax. Second, it shows that liquidity crises may arise as the result of endogenous information panics. It finds that collective ignorance is welfare maximizing but it is fragile, susceptible to self-fulfilling fears about asymmetric information. Adverse selection may thus obtain in equilibrium, sustained by negative aggregate expectations. The mechanism that gives rise to multiple equilibria is robust to the introduction of noisy private signals, and warrants the regulation of information acquisition for rent-seeking (speculative) motives. Finally, it demonstrates the limitations of unconventional credit easing policies to stimulate lending during market-freezes. With inter-temporal investment complementarities, credit to non-financial firms may be curtailed as the result of dynamic coordination failures. Interest rate cuts mitigate coordination risk, but increase the average duration of credit market freezes when the productivity of capital is high. Capital injections in the banking sector, or direct lending to non-financial firms, are completely ineffective, because reductions in deposits from households crowd out government spending. In contrast, government guarantees improve welfare by reducing strategic uncertainty.
by Diego Feijer.
Ph. D.
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Hirata, Wataru. "Financial Market Imperfections and Aggregate Fluctuations." Thesis, Boston College, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/2345/1325.
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Thesis advisor: Susanto BasuThis dissertation examines the fluctuations of the aggregate economy when frictions in financial markets are present. I focus on the the asymmetric information problems between creditors and debtors on the quality of debtor's projects and I analyze how these frictions cause the fluctuations in aggregate economy which is potentially inefficient. The first chapter examines the interaction between the perverse incentives and the general equilibrium effects of misallocated bank credit. This essay is intended to elucidate the mechanism of zombie lending in Japan. By incorporating a soft budget problem into a neo-classical dynamic general equilibrium model, the model shows that an inefficient zombie lending regime can be selected as an equilibrium. In this equilibrium, the incentives and the general equilibrium effects are interdependent. The inefficient use of resources crowds out investment when banks have incentives to bail out insolvent firms. On the other hand, the general equilibrium effects give rise to the perverse incentives endogenously through the formation of the liquidation value and the continuation value of insolvent firms. In the worst case, agents fail to resolve non-performing loan problems, and the model economy permanently falls into an inefficient regime. The second chapter proposes a model that generate boom-and-bust cycles by securitization of subprime mortgages. I construct a dynamic housing choice model in which mortgages are financed by securitization and I assume that creditors have errors in measuring the default risks of subprime mortgages. With this setup, the resource availability for housing fluctuates endogenously and it causes the boom-and-bust cycles. Particularly, there are two channels that change the resource availability: the security design of the securitized assets and the evolution of house price inflation. I illustrate that subprime mortgages can be cheaply financed by securitization when creditors mismeasure the quality of the subprime mortgages. This ignites a boom in the model. However, the boom can be terminated as the profitability of securitization declines along with the decline in the expectation of house price inflation. This is because the house price inflation is tied with the liquidation value of the defaulted mortgages. As the expectation of the house price inflation slows down, the subprime mortgages become more risky and the securitization becomes less profitable. Eventually, issuers of securitized assets withdraw from the securitization market and the boom collapses. The last chapter explores the transmission mechanisms of international business cycles when the borrowing capacity of multinational enterprises (MNEs) is limited. I embed MNEs that face borrowing constraints in a two-country international business cycle model. I show that the net worth of MNEs plays a significant role in generating the international business cycle co-movement: the wealth effect in response to the change in MNEs' net worth has a strong multiplier effect on domestic and foreign investment of MNEs. Output moves in the same direction between the two countries due to the synchronized investment. The model is also able to generate reasonable cross-country correlations in real estate price and consumption
Thesis (PhD) — Boston College, 2010
Submitted to: Boston College. Graduate School of Arts and Sciences
Discipline: Economics
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Fletcher, T. S. B. "Machine learning for financial market prediction." Thesis, University College London (University of London), 2012. http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1338146/.
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The usage of machine learning techniques for the prediction of financial time series is investigated. Both discriminative and generative methods are considered and compared to more standard financial prediction techniques. Generative methods such as Switching Autoregressive Hidden Markov and changepoint models are found to be unsuccessful at predicting daily and minutely prices from a wide range of asset classes. Committees of discriminative techniques (Support Vector Machines (SVM), Relevance Vector Machines and Neural Networks) are found to perform well when incorporating sophisticated exogenous financial information in order to predict daily FX carry basket returns. The higher dimensionality that Electronic Communication Networks make available through order book data is transformed into simple features. These volume-based features, along with other price-based ones motivated by common trading rules, are used by Multiple Kernel Learning (MKL) to classify the direction of price movement for a currency over a range of time horizons. Outperformance relative to both individual SVM and benchmarks is found, along with an indication of which features are the most informative for financial prediction tasks. Fisher kernels based on three popular market microstructural models are added to the MKL set. Two subsets of this full set, constructed from the most frequently selected and highest performing individual kernels are also investigated. Furthermore, kernel learning is employed - optimising hyperparameter and Fisher feature parameters with the aim of improving predictive performance. Significant improvements in out-of-sample predictive accuracy relative to both individual SVM and standard MKL is found using these various novel enhancements to the MKL algorithm.
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Nordenhed, Joakim, and Oskar Rosenkvist. "Measuring financial literacy and market participation." Thesis, Internationella Handelshögskolan, Högskolan i Jönköping, IHH, Företagsekonomi, 2011. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-15607.
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The authors report the results from a survey about financial literacy, financial market participation and numerous factors such as age, income, and education etcetera, which may or may not affect the level of financial literacy and financial market participation among Swedish adults. The study has a qualitative approach and the the survey is conducted on 80 random chosen Swedish individuals in Jönköping. The major findings in this study were the following; Individuals with high financial literacy are more likely to have money invested in stocks and/or funds than individuals with low financial literacy. Education and age affect market participation, whilst the variables gender and income does not. The sample did not show a significant correlation between education and financial literacy. However, taking several underlying factors in to account one can see a pattern between these two variables. For example, individuals with a Master’s Degree have higher knowledge about financial concepts than individuals with a High School education. Age does not have as great impact on financial literacy as education, but there is still a pattern to observe, in general, the older we get the wiser we become. Individuals with higher income, have in general a higher financial literacy than individuals with low income. At last, men in general possess a higher knowledge about financial concepts than women.
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Gomes, Carla Cindy Mendes. "Financial market and the macroeconomic variables." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2013. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/6143.
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Mestrado em FinançasThis study aims to examine the effect of the macroeconomic variables on the stock market price index from Germany and Portugal, using the OLS regression model and quarterly data from 2000(Q1) to 2011(Q4). The group of the macroeconomic variables used in this study is composed by GDP, consumer price index, long term domestic interest rate, exchange rate, and by the ratio of government deficit, tax revenue, net lending or borrowing of an economy and gross fixed capital formation, to GDP. In addition to the macroeconomic variables presented, we also consider the Dow Jones Industrial Average price index and the US long term interest rate. Considering all the explanatory variables on the regression model, we found that both stock markets analyzed are positively influenced by Dow Jones return and US long term interest rate change, and negatively affected by the depreciation of the exchange rate. Germany stock return is positively affected by the domestic long run interest rate change. In regards to the Portugal stock return, it is positively influenced by the GDP growth rate and negatively affected by the growth rate of the consumer price index. Concerning the policy implication, to promote a robust stock market, the authorities are expected to manage the domestic interest rate, pursue or sustain the economic growth, the currency appreciation, a low inflation rate and monitor the external factor.
Este estudo tem como objetivo analisar o efeito das variáveis macroeconómicas no índice de preço do mercado das ações da Alemanha e Portugal, empregando o modelo de regressão OLS e variáveis trimestrais de 2000(T1) a 2011(T4). O grupo das variáveis macroeconómicas é composta pelo PIB, índice de preço do consumidor, taxa de juro interna a longo prazo, taxa de câmbio, e pela percentagem do défice do governo, receita fiscal, capacidade líquida de financiamento da economia e da formação bruta do capital fixo, em relação ao PIB. Para além das variáveis previamente mencionadas, também consideramos como variáveis explicativas o índice da Dow Jones Industrial Average e a taxa de juro dos Estados Unidos de América a longo prazo. Considerando as variáveis exógenas do modelo, deparamos que ambos os mercados das ações considerados neste estudo são afetados positivamente pelo índice de Dow Jones e pela taxa de juro dos Estados Unidos a longo prazo, e negativamente afetados pela depreciação da taxa de câmbio. O retorno do mercado Alemã é positivamente afetado pelo aumento da taxa de juro interna. Em relação ao retorno do mercado Português, este é afetado positivamente pela taxa de crescimento do PIB e negativamente afetado pelo crescimento do índice de preço do consumidor. No que concerne às implicações nas políticas adotadas pelas autoridades, no intuito de promover um mercado robusto, as autoridades devem gerir a taxa de juro, assegurar o crescimento económico, a apreciação da taxa de câmbio, uma baixa taxa de inflação e acompanhar o comportamento dos fatores externos.
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Chen, Haojun. "Three essays on financial market predictability." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2017. https://www.research.manchester.ac.uk/portal/en/theses/three-essays-on-financial-market-predictability(b78fcbba-3858-4dce-8b7b-4c6dc035325d).html.
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Prior studies have shown that returns exhibit certain predictable patterns that are inconsistent with the mainstream finance theory. In this thesis, I explore the behaviour of returns following three different types of market events with a particular focus on behavioural and non-behavioural factors that are attributable to the predictability of post-event returns. This thesis consists of three self-contained empirical essays. The first essay examines the information role of large S&P500 futures trades (commercial, noncommercial, dealers, asset managers, and hedge funds) in shaping future index returns. I find that commercial firms’ net trading level appears positively correlated with future index returns but the relationship is not stable across time. Based on more recent data, hedge funds appear superior in terms of access to information and/or trading ability but this advantage is only preserved at high frequency. Therefore, the current weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report - published with a three-day delay - prevents timely public access to this type of information. Also, trading signals based on two of the more popular position-based sentiment indicators do not produce significant average returns. Overall, this calls into question the reliability of COT-based trading signals used by market professionals. The second essay studies the impacts of short sellers’ trading in shaping the behaviour of stock returns following extreme price moves using data from stock market in mainland China where short sales were initially prohibited. Extreme price moves occurring under non-prohibitive/prohibitive short-sale constraints are defined as shortable/non-shortable events. I find shortable events exhibit less post-event price drift/reversals than non-shortable ones, indicating an increase in the efficiency of stock prices reacting to unexpected events. Further analysis of short sellers’ trading activities on the price event days suggests that they are successful in trading informed price shocks but not in trading uninformed ones. Finally, I find evidence of massive short-covering that amplifies price shocks. The third essay investigates investors’ reaction to stock market rumours using data from China where listed companies are required to clarify rumours appearing in the media. I find that post-clarification abnormal returns exhibit continuation of pre-clarification momentum for rumours that are not denied by the listed companies and reversals for those which are denied. These results suggest that investors are unable to distinguish the reliable rumours from the false ones, as they under-react to rumours containing material information and over-react to those without. Further regression analyses on post-clarification abnormal returns using various subsamples of rumour events show that investors respond more efficiently to rumours when they are more informed about news topics or the rumoured companies.
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Vogel, Harold. "Financial market bubbles : characteristics and theory." Thesis, University of London, 2008. https://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.534026.
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Gyamfi, Michael. "Modelling The Financial Market Using Copula." University of Akron / OhioLINK, 2017. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=akron149601408369316.
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Martínez, Ortuno Fernando. "Financial market models for the grid." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/6827.
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The existing network of computing devices around the world created by the Internet gives the possibility of establishing a global market for computing power, where anybody connected to this network can acquire computing power or sell his own spare computing resources in exchange for real money. This potential global market for computing power, which does not exist yet, is what we study in this thesis. Specifically, we study the market with both analytic and simulated models. This thesis predicts how a future global market for Grid computing will behave. We give arguments that such a large market, together with its potential indefinite growth, would not be able to scale if it were organized with a central server, and therefore we study a peer-to-peer market model in our simulations. We create a high-level model with the most relevant characteristics of the market, where buyers and sellers trade a single commodity. In our simulations, the parameters of the volume of contracts, proportion of satisfied agents and number of messages in the network achieve stable values in the long run. We also derive analytically the conditions that make the price get stable over time; we then implement these conditions in the simulation as local mechanisms of the market participants, which make the whole system achieve a stable price evolution. We are also confident that, as soon as the Grid market emerges, a parallel market of derivatives will be created as well. This market of derivatives will be important due to the non-storability nature of computing power. We develop a futures market for computing power based on Markov chains, where we initially model the behaviour of each participant with a particular Markov chain, and then we derive a global transition probability matrix that models the market as a whole. Furthermore, we analyse the performance of a futures trader operating in such a market, and we obtain an optimal trading strategy with the use of Markov Decision Processes. We finally develop a stochastic differential equation model that captures the essence of the spot price evolution of computing power observed in our market simulations. This model is based on a previously one proposed for the electricity market, and consists of the use of a Markov regime-switching mechanism in order to model the existence of spikes in the spot price. We then estimate the parameters in the model with the output data of our simulation program; the estimation is carried out both by maximum likelihood and the generalised method of moments.
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Hristov, Atanas. "Fiscal policy and financial market imperfections." Doctoral thesis, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät, 2015. http://dx.doi.org/10.18452/17116.
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Die vorliegende Dissertation beschäftigt sich mit der Fragestellung, ob Fiskalpolitik die Gesamtnachfrage erhöhen kann, wenn eine Reihe von Haushalten und Unternehmen Finanzierungsbeschränkungen unterliegt. Das erste Essay liefert Evidenz zur Größe von Fiskalmultiplikatoren aus der Eurozone und den USA. Das Essay kommt zu dem Schluss, dass es in der Literatur hinreichend Hinweise gibt, dass expansive Fiskalpolitik, insbesondere in Form einer Erhöhung der Staatsausgaben oder in Form gezielter Transfers an liquiditätsbeschränkte Haushalte, die Wirtschaftstätigkeit in einer tiefen Rezession stark stimulieren kann. Das zweite Essay untersucht die Auswirkungen der Fiskalpolitik auf den privaten Konsum in Abhängigkeit vom Stadium des Konjunkturzyklus sowie dem Zustand der öffentlichen Finanzen. Die Untersuchung wird für ein jährliches Panel bestehend aus 16 OECD Ländern für den Zeitraum von 1970-2011 durchgeführt. Die Studie zeigt, dass Liquiditätsbeschränkungen bei den Haushalten die Wirksamkeit der Fiskalpolitik in den betrachteten Regimes verändern. Das dritte Essay geht der Frage nach der Größe des Staatsausgabenmultiplikators in einem DSGE-Modell mit Finanzintermediation nach. Als Hauptergebnis ist herauszustellen, dass der kumulierte Multiplikators einer vorübergehenden Erhöhung der Staatsausgaben in Regimen, in denen sich Banken Finanzierungsbeschränkungen gegenübersehen, größer als eins ist. Im Gegensatz dazu ist der Multiplikator kleiner als eins, wenn die Finanzierungsbeschränkungen gelockert sind. Das vierte Essay beschäftigt sich mit der Interaktion von Finanzierungsbeschränkungen und Arbeitsmarktimperfektionen. In der Modellökonomie wird ein positiver Produktivitätsschock durch endogene Fluktuationen an den Finanzmärkten verstärkt. Das Essay weist nach, dass, wenn Löhne über Nash-Verhandlungen gesetzt werden, ein Produktivitätsschock die Volatilität der Löhne substantiell erhöht.This dissertation asks whether fiscal policy can be effective in boosting aggregate demand when borrowing constraints bind tightly across a wide range of households and firms. The work consists of four essays. The first essay surveys evidence on fiscal multipliers from the Euro area and the United States. From this essay it can be concluded that there is ample evidence in the literature that expansionary fiscal policy, especially in the form of an increase in government purchases or in targeted transfers to liquidity-constrained households, may strongly stimulate economic activity in times of a deep recession. The second essay examines the effects of fiscal policy on private consumption conditional on the phase of the business cycle and the state of the public finances in a yearly panel of 16 OECD countries. The essay demonstrates that binding liquidity constraints on households can alter the efficacy of the policy changes in the four regimes---defined by the conditioning states. The third essay examines the size of the government purchases multiplier in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with financial intermediation. The main result is that the size of the cumulative multipliers of a temporary rise in government purchases is higher than one in regimes when financing constraints on banks bind tightly. In contrast, in times when financing constraints are loose the multipliers are smaller than one. The fourth essay studies the interaction between financing constraints and labor market imperfections and the role of this interaction in the labor market dynamics. In the model economy, a positive productivity shock is amplified through endogenous fluctuations in the financial market. The essay shows that if wages are set via Nash bargaining, the productivity shock increases substantially the volatility of wages.
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Prasad, Jayan Ganesh Information Technology & Electrical Engineering Australian Defence Force Academy UNSW. "Financial forecasting using artificial neural networks." Awarded by:University of New South Wales - Australian Defence Force Academy. School of Information Technology and Electrical Engineering, 2008. http://handle.unsw.edu.au/1959.4/38700.
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Despite the extent of a theoretical framework in financial market studies, a vast majority of the traders, investors and computer scientists have relied only on technical and timeseries data for predicting future prices. So far, the forecasting models have rarely incorporated macro-economic and market fundamentals successfully, especially with short-term predictions ranging less than a month. In this investigation on the predictability of certain financial markets, an attempt has been made to incorporate a un-exampled and encompassing set of parameters into an Artificial Neural Network prediction system. Experiments were carried out on three market instruments ??? namely currency exchange rates, share prices and oil prices. The choice of parameters for inclusion or exclusion, and the time frame adopted for the experimental sets were derived from the market literature. Good directional prediction accuracies were achieved for currency exchange rates and share prices with certain parameters as inputs, which consisted of predicting short-term movements based on past movements. These predictions were better than the results produced by a traditional least square prediction method. The trading strategy developed based on the predictions also achieved a higher percentage of winning trades. No significant predictions were observed for oil prices. These results open up questions in the microstructure of the markets and provide an insight into the inputs required for market forecasting in the corresponding time frame, for future investigation. The study concludes by advocating the use of trend based input parameters and suggests ways to improve neural network forecasting models.
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Carmo, João Pedro Rodrigues do. "Modeling stock markets through the reconstruction of market processes." Master's thesis, Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestão, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10400.5/15048.
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Mestrado em EconomiaExistem duas maneira possíveis de interpretar a aparente natureza estocástica dos mercados financeiros: a Hipótese do mercado eficiente (HME) e um conjunto de factos estilizados que conduzem o comportamento dos mercados. Apresentamos evidência para alguns dos factos estilizados como a existência de um fenómeno de memória na volatilidade dos preços a curto prazo, um comportamento em lei de potência e dependências não lineares nos retornos. Considerando isto, construímos um modelo do mercado através de cadeias de Markov. Em seguida, desenvolvemos um algoritmo que pode ser generalizado para qualquer alfabeto de N símbolos e cadeia de Markov de comprimento K. Com esta ferramenta, somos capazes de mostrar que é, pelo menos, sempre melhor que um modelo completamente aleatório como o Passeio Aleatório. O código está escrito em MATLAB e é mantido no GitHub.
There are two possible ways of interpreting the seemingly stochastic nature of financial markets: the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) and a set of stylized facts that drive the behavior of the markets. We show evidence for some of the stylized facts such as memory-like phenomena in price volatility in the short term, a power-law behavior and non-linear dependencies on the returns. Given this, we construct a model of the market using Markov chains. Then, we develop an algorithm that can be generalized for any N-symbol alphabet and K-length Markov chain. Using this tool, we are able to show that it's, at least, always better than a completely random model such as a Random Walk. The code is written in MATLAB and maintained in GitHub.
info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion
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Ivanovski, Marjan. "Asset bubbles in underdeveloped financial markets with influential DC pension funds : evidence from the Croatian financial market." Thesis, Staffordshire University, 2015. http://eprints.staffs.ac.uk/2385/.
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In the mid-1990s, the World Bank promoted a major reform of the pension systems in developing and transition economies; namely, the introduction of mandatory defined contribution pension schemes. Yet this was not accompanied by thorough analysis of the potentially speculative valuation side effects of influential institutional investors being introduced into underdeveloped financial markets. In this Dissertation we developed a theoretical Overlapping Generations Model (OLG) with rational asset bubbles and influential institutional Defined Contribution (DC) pension funds. We report empirical evidence, based on data from the Croatian financial market, which confirms predictions of our theoretical model: namely, that when the financial market becomes dynamically inefficient, introduction of influential DC pension funds significantly increases the incidence and the intensity of the bubbly asset episodes. The empirical evidence also confirms that the shock of return to dynamic efficiency on the financial market, caused by the Global Financial Crisis, resulted in a sudden and swift collapse of the bubbly Croatian equity market. We begin the Dissertation with a retrospect of the Efficient Market Hypothesis and the empirical evidence on asset price misevaluation episodes. The Efficient Market Hypothesis was contested with respect to its “joint hypothesis problem” contained in the distinction between the information efficiency of financial markets and the efficiency of financial market asset valuation. Major empirical evidence questioning asset valuation efficiency led to the development of four major theories of asset bubbles, which we treat in detail. We focus on the Rational Asset Bubbles theory as the most compelling and we use it in our own theoretical modelling. Building on a model developed by Jean Tirole (1985), we develop an original OLG Rational Asset Bubbles model with mandatory DC Pension funds as influential institutional investors. We inspect the dynamics of the modelled financial market using Phase Diagrams to derive the hypothesis that the introduction of a mandatory DC pension fund in a dynamically inefficient financial market leads to a higher state of the rational asset bubble. We also hypothesise that a sudden change in the dynamic efficiency of the financial market could lead to a swift crash of the rational asset bubble in such a market environment.
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Singh, Vikkram. "Financial Integration: Pervasiveness, Effect of Culture and Impact on Policy Effectiveness." Thesis, Griffith University, 2017. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/373044.
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The studies in this thesis examine financial integration: its extent across regions and market cycles, how culture affects it and how the levels of market linkages impact the effectiveness of policy decisions during periods of market crisis. This investigation is undertaken in four separate but interrelated studies. The first study (Chapter 3) uses a novel approach, partial correlations within a complex network framework, to examine the degree of globalization and regionalization of stock market linkages and how these linkages vary across different economic or market cycles. The results show that geography influences network linkages differently across market cycles. During normal times, regional factors shape market linkages; however, during periods of turbulence, global rather than regional factors drive these linkages. Also, the network traffic increases during times of turmoil, but contrary to previous results, the results do not indicate a consistent or overwhelming increase in positive linkages between markets. Also, contrary to expectations, financial centers such as the US, China, Japan, and the UK command a greater regional rather than global influence. These findings have implications for portfolio management and policy decision-making. The second study (Chapter 4) examines linkages between stock markets across market cycles by combining network and cointegration analysis. The results show that long-run linkages are likely to be global rather than regional and that market turbulence increases linkages. However, no widespread common stochastic trends between markets are detected. Also, the major financial markets fail to influence long-run network linkages. The third study (Chapter 5) conducts a comprehensive study on the effect of culture on stock market linkages. A quantile regression model uses data from 25 national stock markets to estimate the determinants of market linkages. It controls for distance, economic and legal variables while using culture variables such as language, religion, and Hofstede’s culture dimensions. The study tests whether the effects of culture hold across regions, in markets with higher liquidity, and if changes occur during periods of market crisis. The main conclusion is that culture preferences shape investor choices, which affects the integration between stock markets. Equity markets with similar cultural characteristics tend to increase market linkages; however, differences are observed across regions. Furthermore, liquidity and economic uncertainty does not impact the significance of culture variables as determinants of market linkages. The fourth study (Chapter 6) tests the hypothesis that policy interventions during periods of stress are less effective when markets are globally integrated. The tests are conducted in the context of the Chinese and Russian stock markets, which depict varying levels of linkages with the US market and were subject to policy interventions during the Global Financial Crisis. Using an event study in combination with dynamic conditional correlation and Markov regime switching methodology, a negative relationship exists between the degree of market linkages and the effectiveness of market interventions. The findings indicate that the market response in the Chinese market, which was less financially integrated with the US (than with Russia), was more effective. Thus, the study lends support to the hypothesis that policy interventions in equity markets become less effective when markets are integrated. This study is the first to investigate the impact of international market linkages on the effectiveness of stock market interventions. The results from this research show that tighter market integration shapes the changing market networks due to structural changes and the forces of globalization. The dynamics of the market networks draw attention to the impact of contagion on market efficiencies, which has far-reaching negative consequences on policy decisions during periods of market crisis. Although these disruptive market crises are difficult to prevent, a deeper understanding of market networks can empower policy decision-makers in dealing with these fallouts. The financial networks can also have a far-reaching impact on arbitrage and portfolio risk management strategies. The findings of the research also highlight the role of behavioral variables such as culture, which affects not only the development of financial markets but also how the financial linkages are shaped.Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Dept Account,Finance & Econ
Griffith Business School
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Aidov, Alexandre. "Three Essays on Market Depth in Futures Markets." FIU Digital Commons, 2013. http://digitalcommons.fiu.edu/etd/974.
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Liquidity is an important market characteristic for participants in every financial market. One of the three components of liquidity is market depth. Prior literature lacks a comprehensive analysis of depth in U.S. futures markets due to past limitations on the availability of data. However, recent innovations in data collection and dissemination provide new opportunities to investigate the depth dimension of liquidity.
In this dissertation, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group proprietary database on depth is employed to study the dynamics of depth in the U.S. futures markets. This database allows for the analysis of depth along the entire limit order book rather than just at the first level.
The first essay examines the characteristics of depth within the context of the five-deep limit order book. Results show that a large amount of depth is present in the book beyond the best level. Furthermore, the findings show that the characteristics of five-deep depth between day and night trading vary and that depth is unequal across levels within the limit order book. The second essay examines the link between the five-deep market depth and the bid-ask spread. The results suggest an inverse relation between the spread and the depth after adjusting for control factors. The third essay explores transitory volatility in relation to depth in the limit order book. Evidence supports the relation between an increase in volatility and a subsequent decrease in market depth. Overall, the results of this dissertation are consistent with limit order traders actively managing depth along the limit order book in electronic U.S. futures markets.
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Johansson, Markus, Ola Arvidsson, and John Zerihoun. "Financial Institution’s Media Strategy : With respect to the Swedish financial market." Thesis, Jönköping University, JIBS, Business Administration, 2008. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:hj:diva-1112.
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Financial experts from various financial institutions are often seen in media. Media’s objec-tive towards the society is to report occurring events of interest to its audience. Media ap-pearances through giving expert opinions, is for financial institutions costless and a reason-ably effective way of promoting their top analysts and strategically position their firms. For the financial institutions, there exists competition for being allowed to participate and give expert reports when media is in need for a comment, and therefore a media strategy is con-sidered required. The purpose, used as guidance in this thesis, is to describe the Swedish financial media en-vironment and analyze why certain financial institutions are more active than others. The method when conducting research in this thesis is a combination of both an inductive and deductive approach. The underlying factor behind this choice, rests in the strive to ful-fill the purpose in most satisfying manner and receive as valid and reliable data as possible. The study also uses both quantitative and qualitative data. Statistical research in media companies’ databases and interviews with persons with key positions at the financial insti-tutions has been conducted. The thesis stresses the fact that the broadcasting companies approach strategies towards the Swedish financial industry differently. However, this thesis proves that another reality governs. In truth, all the broadcasting companies have common references for the most appealing financial expert when asking for expert opinions. The financial institution’s standpoints differ in the area of media appearance. The thesis concludes that financial institutions with the most prominent desire to participate and comment a broad range of financial segments in media are proved to be successful in this area. In general though, as a financial institution on the Swedish market, this thesis shows no correlation between having an outspoken media strategy and being successful in this field. This thesis concludes that when discussing which financial institutions that is more suc-cessful than others, the size of the company is important to take into consideration. The study has also proved that financial experts, often equivalent with the analyst, are appeared to be vital for any financial institution in order to succeed in media.
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Liu, Holly Li-Chen Yeh. "The financial markets in Taiwan : competitive marketing strategy in a growing market." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1995. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/11522.
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Wu, Yuliang. "Market discipline in emerging financial markets : evidence from the chinese banking system." Thesis, University of Manchester, 2007. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.622089.
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Since the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (200lc) includes market discipline as the third "pillar" of the New Basel Accord, the topic of market discipline acting as a market mechanism to control bank risk management has been the centre of academic and policy debate. Although research in developed financial markets finds empirical evidence supporting the existence of market discipline (Park and Peristiani, 1998; Sironi, 2003; Maechler and McDill, 2006), to date there exists little research undertaken in the context of emerging markets. This thesis takes the Chinese banking sector as an institutional setting for empirical analysis. We use the BankScope Database to acquire accounting information from a comprehensive sample of 7S Chinese financial institutions over the period from 1994-2003. This data set makes it possible to systemically examine depositor behaviour associated to bank risk-taking activities and the effectiveness of market discipline across banks with different ownership structures. First, we investigate whether required returns on deposits are sensitive to bank risk profiles (the price approach). We find that (i) depositor required returns from stateowned banks are less influenced by their risk profiles; (ii) depositors exert a significant disciplining effect on non state-owned banks; and (iii) the disciplining effect is relatively weak in the whole banking sector, evidenced by the fact that only the Equity variable among three risk variables exhibits a negative and significant sign with respect to the interest rate. Second, we incorporate the quantity approach by which depositors withdraw their deposits from risky banks. We find that (i) banks with a higher level of capital can attract more time deposits; (ii) the time deposit growth rate in state-owned banks appears to be neither driven by bank fundamentals nor the risk variables, implying that market discipline is fairly weak for this particular bank group; and (iii) the three risk variables and bank fundamentals exert a significant impact on time deposit growth in non state-owned banks, suggesting that they are subject to market discipline to more extent. Third, we employ the generalized-method-of-moments (GMM) estimators developed by Arellano and Bond (1991) to examine the dynamic relationship between the price and quantity effect in the context of market discipline. We find that Chinese banks cannot simply increase their deposit base by raising their interest rates. This result is generally consistent with the market discipline hypothesis. Finally, we address the issue of the effectiveness of market discipline in the Chinese banking sector. We find that (i) a higher share of interbank deposits (uninsured funding) in a bank's portfolio leads the bank to operate with a larger capital buffer; (ii) banks disclosing more information also choose to limit their probability of default by holding a larger capital buffer; and (iii) a higher degree of government support may engender moral hazard, reducing the sensitivity of changes in the bank capital buffer to levels of risk, ceteris paribus. These results support the proposition that enhancing market discipline through improved information disclosure, and by exposing banks to more uninsured liabilities appears to be beneficial for risk management, in that both mechanisms seem to generate incentives for banks to augment their capital.
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Evans, Pornsawan. "An investigation into aspects of market behaviour in UK financial futures markets." Thesis, Swansea University, 2003. https://cronfa.swan.ac.uk/Record/cronfa42422.
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This thesis investigates a number of features of UK financial futures markets: (i) market microstructure through the context of the volume-maturity relationship of FTSEIOO futures (stock index futures), Long Gilt (bond futures) and Short Sterling (interest rate futures), (ii) domestic market linkages through the impact of macroeconomic announcements on the lead/lag relationship between the stock index futures and its equity index, (iii) international market linkages through the transmission of arbitrage information, measured by the mispricing errors, of stock index futures across the UK, US and Australian market, and (iv) the market efficiency of the three UK financial futures contracts, including the impact of the introduction of an electronic trading on the efficiency. We found an inverse relationship between the maturity and traded volume of these futures contracts. However, observation of the relationship for various maturity horizons (the near, middle and far contract) reveals that the inverse relationship is contributed mainly by the middle contract trading. The study of the lead/lag relationship reveals a futures lead over the cash market of 50 minutes for the FTSEIOO. UK macroeconomic announcements are found to strengthen the futures lead by up to 5 minutes. The impact from bad news created by the announcements appears to strengthen the futures lead whereas good news causes a price lead from the cash market to the futures market instead. The study of the international market linkages reveals the existence of bi-directional transmission of mispricing errors of stock index futures across the countries under investigation. We found a spillover from the US market to the Australian market, but not to the UK market, and from the Australian market to the US market. Finally, the study of market efficiency indicates that all three UK futures markets under investigation are weak-form efficient.
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Ficik, Jozef. "Are Financial Market Anomalies Real? Evidence from Stock Markets in Five Countries." Master's thesis, Vysoká škola ekonomická v Praze, 2014. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-198627.
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The financial market anomaly can be characterized as the event when observed stock returns differentiate from those expected by concrete pricing model. Many anomalies have been detected so far, and some of them vanished, while other persisted, after they had been published by academics and researchers. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the potential presence of selected types of anomalies in the financial markets and to provide relevant empirical evidence. The theoretical section will supply the reader with the descriptions of several types of financial market anomalies and the results of past studies documenting the existence of these anomalies, with possible reasons justifying the presence of this phenomenon. The analytical section will focus on the few selected anomalies and test whether they are still present in the selected financial markets.
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Omar, Mahmoud Abdulsalam Taib. "Stochastic modelling in financial markets : case study of the Nigerian Stock Market." Thesis, Sheffield Hallam University, 2012. http://shura.shu.ac.uk/16847/.
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This research uses suitable stochastic models typically encountered in empirical and quantitative financial economics to analyse stock market data from the Nigerian Stock Market (NSM), in light of a) possible changes in the policy environments as result of the 2004 financial reforms by the then Governor of Central Bank of Nigeria, b) effects or otherwise of the 2008-09 global financial crises on the Nigerian financial system, and c) more technical issues underpinning performance of financial markets for example market efficiency, anomalies, bubbles, volatilities and their implications for investment decisions, stock market development and financial policy. There are substantial differences in the operation and characteristics of developed, emerging and pre-emerging (African) financial markets in terms of the above mentioned issues. Sometimes as part of general discussion of results we comment on the extent to which the characteristics of the NSM differ from known results in developed markets. A wide range of financial econometric methods and models including multivariate regression, Goodness of fit tests, Runs, Autocorrelation Function, Variance Ratio, Autoregressive tests, and discrete log logistic and GARCH-type models are applied. Both the All Share index and return data for 2000 to 2010 are used in this study. The time series data are divided into two periods namely pre-reforms (2000-2004) and postreforms (2005-2010). This study provides both investors and researchers in emerging African markets with a clear understanding of key financial characteristics of the NSM. Some useful results were obtained. Key characteristics of the NSM analysed in terms of market index prices and returns reveal evidence of market inefficiency and volatility. The data do not provide evidence of bubbles and anomalies in the NSM. This study, according to the author’s best knowledge, is possibly the most comprehensive combined study of crucial issues affecting the NSM including volatility, anomalies, bubbles and market efficiency. However, some other issues are excluded from the study because of the limitations of the data for example valuations and predictability, which are more suitably studied within specific companies and market sectors.
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Ding, Haina. "Three Essays on Information Efficiency in Financial Markets and Product Market Interaction." Thesis, Toulouse 1, 2014. http://www.theses.fr/2014TOU10021/document.
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Cette thèse contient trois articles indépendants. Les deux premiers examinent le rôle informationnel des prix des actions et de son impact sur l'économie réelle. Le dernier explore la relation entre incitation gestion et de la concurrence sur le marché du produit. Dans le premier article, deux entreprises en concurrence dans un marché de produits et d'avoir la possibilité d'investir dans une technologie risquée. Une entreprise peut choisir d'investir plus tôt ou plus tard, lorsque les cours des actions révèlent la valeur de la technologie. La fuite d'informations introduit donc une option d'attente, ce qui améliore l'efficacité de production. Un leader potentiel peut néanmoins être découragés d'investir au début, quand anticiper son concurrent d'investir plus tard en réponse à de bonnes nouvelles. Je montre que l'augmentation de la concurrence des marchés de produits accroît la valeur de l'option d'attendre, mais a un effet ambigu sur la production de l'information. Il peut donc être que la concurrence intense conduit à la fuite plus de telle sorte qu'aucune entreprise investira, surtout dans un petit marché. Compte tenu d'un niveau modéré de la concurrence, le prix informatif peut améliorer les résultats de l'investissement lorsque la rentabilité de l'investissement et la taille du marché sont relativement grandes. Le deuxième article examine le Feedback effet des certifications sur les marchés financiers. Une entreprise doit décider de vérifier l'intérieur de la perspective d'un investissement potentiel ou de déléguer cette tâche à un certificateur qui révèle ses évaluations pour les étrangers. La décision d'investissement est alors prise sur la base de toutes les informations disponibles sur le marché. L'asymétrie de l'information entre l'entreprise et les prêteurs est atténuée par délégation, et donc l'entreprise bénéficie d'une baisse du coût du capital. Délégation toutefois réduit l'avantage de l'information de spéculateurs qui font moins d'efforts pour obtenir des informations. Il en résulte un effet potentiel "crowding-out" des informations. Nous montrons que l'entreprise peut préférer déléguer quand la croyance a priori sur la perspective d'investissement est relativement élevé, et de choisir en interne la production de l'information quand son propre signal est plus précis et lorsque ses actifs actuels en place génèrent un gain attendu plus élevé. Le troisième article considère un modèle de concurrence spatiale avec différenciation horizontale et verticale. Deux entreprises sont assignées à des endroits exogènes sur une ville circulaire. Les consommateurs, répartis sur le cercle, doivent payer des frais de transport pour l'achat. Anticiper un avenir incertitude dans la qualité des produits, les entreprises offrent simultanément des contrats incitatifs aux gestionnaires pour induire un niveau d'effort optimal. Je montre que la concurrence peut affecte négativement incitations, comme un coût de transport moindre atteinte pouvoir de marché local de l'entreprise et réduit bénéfice marginal d'une entreprise de production d'un produit de haute qualité, en particulier lorsque son concurrent produit également un produit de haute qualité. D'autre part, une plus grande concurrence réduit le bénéfice d'une entreprise si elle ne parvient pas à améliorer la qualité du produit. Cet effet augmente le niveau d'effort optimal, et il devient dominant si l'amélioration de la qualité est relativement importante par rapport au coût de l'effort. En outre, une forte diminution du coût du transport peut modifier la structure du marché, de sorte que l'entreprise avec des biens de meilleure qualité attire toute la demande, et donc l'effet positif de la concurrence sur l'activité de gestion devient plus importantThis dissertation contains three independent essays. The first two essays look at the informational role of stock prices and its impact on the real economy. The last one explores the relationship between managerial incentive and product market competition. In the first essay, two firms compete in a product market and have an opportunity to invest in a risky technology either early on as a leader or later once stock prices reveal the value of the technology. Information leakage thus introduces an option of waiting, which enhances production efficiency. A potential leader may nevertheless be discouraged from investing upfront, when anticipating its competitor to invest later in response to good news. I show that an increase in product market competition increases the option value of waiting but has an ambiguous effect on information production. It may thus be the case that intense competition leads to more leakage such that no firm would invest, especially so in a smaller market. Given a moderate level of competition, price informativeness may improve investment outcome when investment profitability and the market size are relatively large. The second essay examines the feedback effects of certifications in financial markets. A firm has to decide whether to monitor (or to ascertain) internally the prospect of a potential investment or to delegate this task to a certifier who reveals his evaluations to the outsiders. The investment decision is then taken based on all of the information available in the market. The information asymmetry between the firm and lenders is alleviated under delegation, and hence the firm enjoys a lower cost of capital at the financing stage. Delegation however reduces the information advantage of speculators who then make less effort to acquire information. This results in a potential information crowding-out effect. We show that the firm may prefer to delegate when the prior belief about the investment prospect is relatively high, and to choose in-house information production when its own signal is more precise and when its current assets in place generate a higher expected payoff. The third essay considers a spatial competition model with horizontal and vertical differentiation. Two firms are assigned to exogenous locations on a circular city. Consumers, distributed on the circle, need to pay a transportation cost for purchasing. Anticipating a future uncertainty in product quality, firms simultaneously offer incentive contracts to managers to induce an optimal effort level. I show that competition may adversely affects incentives, as a lower transportation cost impairs a firm's local market power and consequently reduces a firm’s marginal benefit from producing a high quality product, particularly when its competitor also produces a high quality product. On the other hand, greater competition reduces a firm's profit if it fails to improve product quality. This effect increases the optimal effort level and becomes dominant if the quality improvement is relatively large compared to the effort cost. Moreover, a large decrease in the transportation cost may change the market structure, such that the firm with better quality goods attracts all the demand, and thus the positive effect of competition on managerial effort becomes more significant
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Nishi, Hirofumi. "Market Efficiency, Arbitrage and the NYMEX Crude Oil Futures Market." Thesis, University of North Texas, 2016. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc862846/.
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Since Engle and Granger formulated the concept of cointegration in 1987, the literature has extensively examined the unbiasedness of the commodity futures prices using the cointegration-based technique. Despite intense attention, many of the previous studies suffer from the contradicting empirical results. That is, the cointegration test and the stationarity test on the differential contradict each other. In marked contrast, my dissertation develops the no-arbitrage cost-of-carry model in the NYMEX light sweet crude oil futures market and tests stationarity of the spot-futures differential. It is demonstrated that the primary cause of the "cointegration paradox" is the model misspecifications resulting in omitted variable bias.
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Cross, J. "Gold and its financial derivatives." Thesis, University of Nottingham, 1994. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.239416.
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Koulakiotis, Athanasios. "Three papers on European financial market integration." Thesis, Bangor University, 2003. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.252406.
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Gang, Jianhua. "Volatility analysis on macroeconomy and financial market." Thesis, University of York, 2008. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.542806.
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Sepahsalari, A. "Essays on labour market and financial frictions." Thesis, University College London (University of London), 2017. http://discovery.ucl.ac.uk/1559781/.
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This thesis studies the labour market consequences of financial frictions and investigates how the interaction between frictions in the labour and financial markets affects the job-finding decisions of unemployed workers as well as the job creation and layoff decisions of firms. In the first chapter, the focus is placed on the firm side to study how the interaction of frictions reduces the mobility of the labour force from unproductive to productive firms. It demonstrates that capital market tightening reduces the hiring of productive firms while, at the same time, labour market frictions cause delays in the layoff decisions of unproductive firms. This interaction between labour and financial market frictions generates a delay in the reallocation of labour and capital and therefore deepens the recession. The second chapter concentrates on the job-finding decision of risk averse workers in the absence of a perfect insurance market. We first derive the theoretical conditions under which there exists positive (negative) assortative matching between a worker’s asset holding and a firm’s productivity. Then, we evaluate a tax-financed unemployment insurance (UI) scheme and identify the channels through which higher benefits affect workers with different levels of assets. Finally, we compare a one-off severance payment with per-period benefits and find that the latter generate superior welfare. This has important implications for the effectiveness of policies aimed at reallocating workers to more productive jobs. The final chapter looks at the role of assets versus skills in the job-finding decision of unemployed workers. High-asset workers have a higher natural preference complementarity with more productive firms while highly skilled workers have higher technological complementarity. The main contribution of this chapter is to find the conditions under which a firm with a given productivity level is indifferent between a low-asset high-skill worker and a high-asset low-skill worker.
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Ibikunle, G. "Financial market microstructure of EU emissions futures." Thesis, University of East Anglia, 2012. https://ueaeprints.uea.ac.uk/39452/.
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Corrado, Charles J. "Nonparametric statistical methods in financial market research." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1988. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/184608.
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This dissertation presents an exploration of the use of nonparametric statistical methods based on ranks for use in financial market research. Applications to event study methodology and the estimation of security systematic risk are analyzed using a simulation methodology with actual daily security return data. The results indicate that procedures based on ranks are more efficient than normal theory procedures currently in common use.
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Povel, Paul. "Financial contracts, bankruptcy and product market competition." Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 1998. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/858/.
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This thesis consists of three self–contained game–theoretic analyses of the contractual relationship between borrowers and lenders. A key element of this relation concerning their strategic variables than their opponents. Optimal contracts for different environments are derived and studied. They include ‘bankruptcy’ games, which are designed to structure the parties’ bargaining under certain circumstances. The first chapter questions the idea that being a unique lender to a firm is better than sharing the lender’s role. Even borrowers with poor prospects will apply for loans, if their main goal is to be financed, and re–financed if necessary. With one lender, refinancing is always provided once former loans are ‘sunk’. With two lenders, the situation may be different: inefficient negotiations have to determine how the overall loss is allocated. Some borrowers may therefore not be refinanced, and this may keep borrowers with poor prospects from applying for loans. The second chapter extends this model by adding a timing dimension: a borrower finds out about poor prospects earlier than his lender. He can ask for refinancing, or simply ‘wait and pray’. Either ‘soft’ contracts or ‘tough’ contracts may be optimal contracts: ‘soft’ contracts treat the borrower well if he asks for refinancing, while ‘tough’ contracts don’t (and the lender will not have the option of refinancing). ‘Hybrid’ contracts are strictly worse than the two ‘pure’ types. From this we draw conclusions for the design of bankruptcy laws, and for empirical work on bankruptcy. The third chapter analyses the interdependence of financial and production decisions. Debt contracts are frequently thought to lead to excessive risk taking — in a Cournot setup this means excessive production. At the same time, debt is a costly type of financing, which should reduce production. This conflict is analysed in a setting which allows to endogenise ‘debt’ contracts. The main result is that there is no excessive production, and financial constraints reduce output. However, for large levels of ‘inherited’ debt, it may be that output increases in the level of debt.
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Tan, Bin. "Growth, financial development, market liquidity and risk." Thesis, Brunel University, 2010. http://bura.brunel.ac.uk/handle/2438/8205.
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This thesis,firstly, studies the impact of financial liberalization and political instability on economic growth and quantitatively examines the relative importance of the identified underling reasons of Argentine riddle by using an innovative econometric methodology and unique data set: it presents power ARCH estimates for Argentina from 1896 to 2000. The main results show that the long-run effect of financial liberalization on economic growth is positive while the short-run effect is negative, albeit substantially smaller. The political instability effects are substantially larger in the short-run than in the long-run. We also investigate potential mechanisms for the effects of financial liberalization and political instability on economic growth: direct impact or happening through the variation of growth volatility. Our results also suggest that financial development, trade openness and political instability are the main factors to explain the Argentine decline. Furthermore, real business cycle variability - growth relationship and the link between inflation and its uncertainty are investigated by using monthly data of four Asian countries/regions (Japan, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan) and parametric power ARCH methodology to proxy uncertainty. We fnd that more uncertainty about output leads to a higher rate of growth in three of the four countries/regions and the form of the uncertainty matters. Output growth reduces its uncertainty in all countries/regions via inflation uncertainty except Singapore. For all countries/regions, inflation significantly raises inflation uncertainty as predicted by Friedman. On the other hand, increased uncertainty affects inflation positively in Japan and Singapore, which support the Cukierman-Meltzer hypothesis. We find a negative sign for Taiwan which is in accordance with the Holland hypothesis when error term was normally distributed, however, this result is not statistically significant when the student-t distribution is applied. Interestingly, South Korea’s data reveals a positive sign initially, however, it turns around when a structural dummy is incorporated. This dramatic outcome in favour of the Holland hypothesis, and chimes in with Dueker and Kim (1999), who claim that the inflation was strictly controlled by the South Korean monetary authority. In addition, this thesis investigates two-way causal relationships between spread, volatility and volume in the FTSE100 stock index over the period from 1992 to 2004 by using bivariate AR-FI-GARCH model and multiple measurements of risk and spread. The measurements of the spread include relative bid-ask spread, effective bid-ask spread, the inventory cost component of the bid-ask spread and the information cost component of the bid-ask spread. Risk is proxied by two measurements of price volatility: the close-to-close volatility and the range-based volatility. We also take the impact of electronic trading into account. Our results suggest that the spread and volume are positively impacted by volatility simultaneously. In addition, both volatility and volume are negatively affected by the spread. Furthermore, we find that the inventory cost component of the spread has a negative effect on volatility, in contrast, the information component of the spread positively impacts volatility. These results support the argument that speculation generates volatility in the market and higher transaction costs bene t stability of the market.
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Huang, Shiyang. "Essays on information asymmetry in financial market." Thesis, London School of Economics and Political Science (University of London), 2014. http://etheses.lse.ac.uk/1063/.
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I study how asymmetric information affects the financial market in three papers. In the first paper, I study the joint determination of optimal contracts and equilibrium asset prices in an economy with multiple principal-agent pairs. Principals design optimal contracts that provide incentives for agents to acquire costly information. With agency problems, the agents’ compensation depends on the accuracy of their forecasts for asset prices and payoffs. Complementarities in information acquisition delegation arise as follows. As more principals hire agents to acquire information, asset prices become less noisy. Consequently, agents are more willing to acquire information because they can forecast asset prices more accurately, thus mitigating agency problems and encouraging other principals to hire agents. This mechanism can explain many interesting phenomena in markets, including multiple equilibria, herding, home bias and idiosyncratic volatility comovement. In the second paper (co-authored with Yao Zeng from Harvard University), we investigate how firms’ cross learning amplifies industry-wide investment waves. Firms’ investment opportunities have idiosyncratic shocks as well as a common shock, and firms’ asset prices aggregate speculators’ private information about these two shocks. In investing, each firm learns from other firms’ prices to make better inference about the common shock. Thus, a spiral between firms’ higher investment sensitivity to the common shock and speculators’ higher weighting on the common shock emerges. This leads to systematic risks in investment waves: higher investment and price comovements as well as their higher comovements with the common shock. Moreover, each firm’s cross learning creates a new pecuniary externalities on other firms, because it makes other firms’ prices less informative on their idiosyncratic shocks through speculators’ endogenous over-weighting on the common shock. In the third model, we study the effect of introducing an options market on investors’ incentive to collect private information in a rational expectation equilibrium model. We show that an options market has two effects on information acquisition: a negative effect, as options act as substitutes for information, and a positive effect, as informed investors have less need for options and can earn profits from selling them. When the population of informed investors is high because of the low information acquisition cost, the supply for options is larger than the demand, leading to low option prices. Low option prices in turn induce investors to use options instead of information to reduce risk, while informed investors have little opportunity to earn profits from selling options to cover their information acquisition cost. Introducing an options market thus decreases investors’ incentive to acquire information, and the prices of the underlying assets become less informative, leading to lower prices and higher volatilities. A dynamic extension of this analysis shows that introducing an options market increases the price reactions to earnings announcements. However, when the information acquisition cost is high, the opposite effects arise. Further analysis shows that our results are robust for more general derivatives. These results provide a potentially unified theory to reconcile the conflicting empirical findings on the options listing of individual stocks in both the U.S. market and international markets.
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Ma, Yao. "Financial market predictions using Web mining approaches /." View abstract or full-text, 2009. http://library.ust.hk/cgi/db/thesis.pl?CSED%202009%20MAY.
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McIntyre, Graeme. "Reforming the Regulation of Financial Market Manipulation." Thesis, Sydney Law School, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/2123/12161.
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Fraudsters periodically attempt to enrich themselves by employing a raft of tricks and schemes to exploit investors and financial markets. Market manipulation (‘manipulation’) is one such class of illegitimate conduct. It perverts the market price formation process and undermines public confidence in financial market integrity. An effective prohibition on manipulation is thus required to protect investors from fraud and promote market integrity, thereby fostering investment and economic growth. Chapter 1 of this thesis defines manipulation and argues that the current anti-manipulation regime, ss 1041A–1041C of the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth), requires substantive reform. This regime is predicated on a conceptually unsound understanding of manipulation. It fails to articulate the nature and role of manipulative intention and is based on an unclear distinction between civil penalties and criminal offences. As such, the scope of liability is sometimes too broad and at other times too narrow. Additionally, the provisions are internally defective, as they suffer from ambiguous language. They are also overly complex and have inconsistent physical and fault requirements. The Criminal Code Act 1995 (Cth) exacerbates these problems. Chapter 2 advances a two-pronged proposal for substantive law reform. Principally, two criminal prohibitions on manipulation should replace the current regime. These will prohibit a person from executing a transaction, or doing, or omitting to do, an act, when motivated by the dominant purpose of manipulating the market for, or price of, a financial product. The provisions clearly articulate the requisite manipulative intention and have an appropriate scope of liability. They are also easier to enforce than the current regime, as two deeming provisions facilitate proof of manipulative intention. 4 The proposed regime is complemented by a Serious Financial Market Crimes Act 2014 (Cth). This contains prohibitions on manipulation and other conduct that undermines financial market integrity, reinforcing the serious criminal nature of manipulation and enhancing the credibility of ASIC’s enforcement actions. It may also motivate Parliament to articulate its policy objectives in greater detail. Together, these proposals would effectively deter manipulation and promote financial market integrity.