Academic literature on the topic 'Financial performance evaluation'

Using Technique for Order Performance by Similarity to Ideal Solutions (TOPSIS) approach for the data from 2011 to 2015, the authors investigate the financial performance of 16 different financial institutions in Oman that include nine commercial banks, three specialized banks, two investment companies, and two finance companies. They find that the one investment company, Dhofar International Development and Investment Holding Co., was more efficient in 2015 and 2011. Moreover, Oman Housing Bank was more efficient in 2013 and 2014, while Ahli Bank was more efficient in the year 2012. In contrast, Bank Muscat that has the largest total assets was ranked number 16 for the years 2013, 2014 and 2015. As a result of Spearman’s Rho (Rank-Order) Correlation, all ranked results are related to other years. If a bank is at placement in level, it can be affected by year before or year after. But Oman banks’ correlations shows that there are 2 different periods as effecting one year to the other. Keywords: financial institutions performance, TOPSIS, emerging markets, efficiency, decision making criteria. JEL Classification: G21, G23, L25

The use of financial ratios as the necessary information is considered as one of the noticeable issues for researchers to apply quantitative models for evaluating the performance of institutions. The reason for introducing these new approaches is that the financial ratios cannot individually provide a correct and adequate understanding of an institution’s performance. This study sought to propose a model for evaluating and ranking 14 companies which are considered as the largest companies in Iran’s food industry according to the recent report of Industrial Management institute (IMI). To accomplish this, an integrated model composed of Best-Worst method and PROMETHEE II was used. Results of data analysis revealed that in final evaluation, some companies such as NOOSH MAZAN Co., PYAZR AI Co. and PEGAH ESF Co had higher positions compared to the others.

Motivated by the growing attraction of the mutual fund industry worldwide, this research seeks to explore the economic benefits contributed by the South African equity unit trust managers over the period from 6 January 2002 to 2 September 2012. The performance statistics of selected equity unit trusts are examined for the overall examination period and two sub-periods: 6 January 2002 to 6 May 2007 and 7 May 2007 to 2 September 2012. The first sub-period captures the bullish performance of the unit trusts before the 2008 global financial crisis. The second sub-period captures the global financial crisis and the European debt crisis before the European Central Bank (ECB) subsequently implemented the outright monetary transactions (OMT) to curb the yields in Eurozone. The risk-adjusted performance measures employed by this study include the Sharpe ratio, M-squared, Treynor measure and Jensen’s alpha. Regardless of the different applications of risk-return parameters employed to evaluate fund performance, the results reveal that, on average, most of the equity unit trust managers in South Africa do not outperform the market proxy on a consistent basis. The majority of the unit trust managers show good performance before the crisis, with subsequent inferiority in performance in turbulent times. Keywords: unit trusts, active portfolio management, passive portfolio management, performance evaluation, efficient market hypothesis (EMH). JEL Classification: G11, G12, G14, G15

The rapid expansion of RRB has helped in reducing substantially the regional disparities in respect of banking facilities in India. The efforts made by RRB in branch expansion, deposit mobilization, rural development and credit d eployment in weaker section of rural areas are appreciable. RRB successfully achieve its objectives like to take banking to door steps of rural households particularly in banking deprived rural area, to avail easy and cheaper credit to weaker rural section who are dependent on private lenders, to encourage rural savings for productive activities, to generate employment in rural areas and to bring down the cost of purveying credit in rural areas. The increase in the number of NPAs and the problem of recovery has necessitated the need to study the financial performance of RRBs. The main objective is to study the growth-pattern and financial performance of Regional Rural Banks in India. The study conducted is descriptive in nature and data is collected from published annual reports of RBI and NABARD for the period 2006-2012. The study has witnessed positive impact on the financial performance of RRBs due to amalgamation and various other factors.

Management decisions in complex industrial facilities usually consider both the economic and environmental aspects of the plant's performance. For nuclear power plants (NPPs), safety is also a very substantial issue. The objectives of this dissertation are to develop and demonstrate a novel useful conceptual model that could be used to allocate maintenance funds for a nuclear power plant in such a way as to meet all specified safety requirements and objectives, while achieving a high degree of economic performance. The model is based on the general theory that the reliability of a plant at any time is a function of its initial reliability and the maintenance history of the individual plant components (Smith, 1997). Such a model can assist in evaluating strategic management decisions regarding allocation of funds for nuclear power plant maintenance. It could be used as a simulation tool; various scenarios could be studied to answer "what if" questions. Simulations of this type will allow a better understanding of the relationship between maintenance, economic performance, and safety, and consequently will lead to better decision making. The novelty of this model is tied to the intimate relationship that it develops between maintenance activities at a nuclear plant, and their relationship to prescribed safety requirements and to the economic performance of that plant.

Thesis (PhD (Economics))--University of Stellenbosch, 2008.
The primary financial objective of a firm is the maximisation of its shareholders’ value. A problem faced by the shareholders of a firm is that it is difficult to determine the effect of management decisions on the future share returns of the firm. Furthermore, it may be necessary to implement certain monitoring costs to ensure that management is focused on achieving this objective. A firm would, therefore, benefit from being able to identify those financial performance measures that are able to link the financial performance of the firm to its share returns. Implementing such a financial performance measure in the valuation and reward systems of a firm should ensure that management is aligned with the objective of shareholder value maximisation, and rewarded for achieving it. A large number of traditional financial performance measures have been developed. These measures are often criticised for excluding a firm’s cost of capital, and are considered inappropriate to be used when evaluating value creation. Furthermore, it is argued that these measures are based on accounting information, which could be distorted by Generally Accepted Accounting Practice (GAAP). Studies investigating the relationship between these measures and share returns also provide conflicting results. As a result of the perceived limitations of traditional measures, value based financial performance measures were developed. The major difference between the traditional and value based measures is that the value based measures include a firm’s cost of capital in their calculation. They also attempt to remove some of the accounting distortions resulting from GAAP. Proponents of the value based measures present these measures as a major improvement over the traditional financial performance measures and report high levels of correlation between the measures and share returns. A number of studies containing contradictory results have been published. On the basis of these conflicting results it is not clear whether the value based measures are able to outperform the traditional financial performance measures in explaining share returns. The primary objectives of this study are thus to: • Determine the relationship between the traditional measures earnings before extraordinary items (EBEI) and cash from operations (CFO), and shareholder value creation; • Investigate the value based measures residual income (RI), economic value added (EVA), cash value added (CVA) and cash flow return on investments (CFROI), and to determine their relationship with the creation of shareholder value; • Evaluate the incremental information content of the value based measures above the traditional measures. The information content of the traditional measures and the value based measures are evaluated by employing an approach developed by Biddle, Bowen and Wallace (1997). The first phase of this approach entails the evaluation of the relative information content of the various measures in order to determine which measure explains the largest portion of a firm’s market-adjusted share returns. The second phase consists of an evaluation of the incremental information content of the components of a measure in order to determine whether the inclusion of an additional component contributes statistically significant additional information beyond that contained in the other components. The study is conducted for South African industrial firms listed on the Johannesburg Securities Exchange for the period 1991 to 2005. The data required to calculate the measures investigated in the study are obtained from the McGregor BFA database. This database contains annual standardised financial statements for listed and delisted South African firms. It also contains EVA, cost of capital and invested capital amounts for those firms listed at the end of the research period. Including only these listed firms in the research sample would expose the study to a survivorship bias. Hence these values are estimated for those firms that delisted during the period under review by employing a similar approach to the one used in the database. The resulting sample consists of 364 firms providing 3181 complete observations. Since different information is required to calculate the various measures included in the study, different samples are compiled from this initial sample and included in the tests conducted to evaluate the information content of the measures. The results of this study indicate that the value based measures are not able to outperform EBEI in the majority of the relative information content tests. Furthermore, the measures EVA, CVA and CFROI are also not able to outperform the relatively simple value based measure RI. The results from the incremental information content tests indicate that although some of the components of the value based measures provide statistically significant incremental information content, the level of significance for these relatively complex adjustments is generally low. Based on these results, the claims made by the proponents of the value based measures cannot be supported. Furthermore, if a firm intends to incorporate its cost of capital in its financial performance measures, the measure RI provides most of the benefits contained in the other more complex value based measures.

The thesis applies performance evaluation of pharmaceutical company in Bangladesh. It means evaluate how well the company performs. The main aim is achieved through ratio analysis of two pharmaceutical (Beximco and Square pharmaceutical) companies in Bangladesh. The main data collection from the annual financial reports on Beximco and square pharmaceutical companies in 2007 to 2008.Different financial ratio are evaluated such liquidity ratios, asset management ratios, profitability ratios, market value ratios, debt management ratios and finally measure the best performance between two companies. The mathematical calculation was establish for ratio analysis between two companies from 2007-2008.It is most important factors for performance evaluation. The graphical analysis and comparisons are applies between two companies for measurement of all types of financial ratio analysis. Liquidity ratio is conveying the ability to repay short-term creditors and it total cash. It determines perform of short term creditor of both pharmaceutical companies under the three categories such as current ratio, quick ratio and cash ratio. Asset management ratio is measurement how to effectively a company to use and controls its assets. Its also quantify into seven categories for both pharmaceutical companies such as account receivable turnover, average collection period, inventory turnover, account payable turnover ,account payable turnover in days ,fixed asset turnover ,total asset turnover. Profitability ratio is evaluate how well a company is performing by analyzing and how profit was earned relative to sales, total assets and net worth for both pharmaceutical companies. Debt coverage ratio is performing that the property insufficient to collect their mortgage for both companies and market value is perform the stockholder to analysis their future market value of the stock market. Overall analyses are measurement the best one between Beximco and Square pharmaceutical companies.

Effective risk and financial management possess a great challenge for the multinational companies operating globally. Despite the increasing development of diverse hedging strategies against foreign exchange risk, global firms cannot fully foresee and measure the degree of the impact of foreign currency fluctuations. This paper aims to evaluate the exchange risk management and financial performance of the BMW Group from the year 2005 to 2016. Moreover, this paper is devoted to provide explanatory information on the impact of foreign exchange exposure on the financial performance of the company by the usage of information provided by the annual reports. The first section of the paper establishes the theoretical concepts of risk management with emphasis on exchange rate risk and financial performance analysis, which support the following study. The analysis of the industry and BMW Group business operations worldwide, currency movement, detailed accounting examination, financial ratio, peer group, exchange rate exposure and hedging strategies are performed to examine the relation between the financial performance and foreign exchange risk management. The analysis reveals that the effective hedging strategies against the foreign exchange risk may substantially impact the financial performance and overall positioning of the company in the competitive environment.

Thesis (MDF (Development Finance))--University of Stellenbosch, 2009.
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The main aim of this study, firstly, is to evaluate the financial performance of the Development Bank of Namibia (DBN) over the period of 2003 to 2007. Secondly, the study aims to compare financial performance of the Development Bank of Namibia with the Development Bank of Southern Africa during the same period. In recent years, there has been a number of criticisms raised against the Development Bank of Namibia. These have been noted by the political appointment of the top management in the bank who has no experience in monitoring of the funds and development projects (World Bank, 2003). In addition, the bank has been criticized for poor performance, in terms of very low returns due to poor procurement performance and weak performance of project management units (African Development Bank, 2005). The bank has also been seen undermining people's human rights through funded projects which were only given to those people who are politically connected or comrades (The Namibian, 2002). Two financial statements of the Development Bank of Namibia, namely the Income Statement and Balance Sheet of the period of 2003 to 2007, are used to evaluate the financial performance of the bank. Trend analysis, monitoring and evaluation reports, financial ratios and statistical tools are employed to conduct this study. Trend analysis, financial ratios and statistical tools indicated that there was no evidence to infer that the Development Bank of Namibia did perform poorly during 2003 to 2007. However, monitoring and evaluation reports indicated that there was inefficiency in terms of bank operations.

This paper applies a short-term event study methodology to analyze the performance of common stock recommendations made by the Wall Street Journal’s Ahead of the Tape, CNBC’s Mad Money and Value Investors Club. The results suggest that a portfolio that replicates the long and short recommendations from Value Investors Club earns significant abnormal returns. These returns persist even after accounting for trading costs, the bid-ask spread and stock loans. Abnormal returns to Mad Money’s positive endorsements are also significant for the two days after announcement, but are erased by transaction costs. Across all three sources, abnormal returns rarely correspond with abnormal trading volume, an unexpected dichotomy that invites further research.

Thesis (MBA.) -- Unversity of Limpopo, 2016
The researcher using Quantitative process is aimed to appraise Corporate Social Investment (CSI) in relation to Corporate Financial Performance (CFP). This research addressed theoretical paradigms of CSI, leadership strategies applied to implement CSI and stakeholder theory is presented. The study area was Johannesburg Stock Exchange FTSE/JSE Responsible Investment Index. The top 35 recorded companies were chosen, and then from top 35, only 5 companies were used (25 observations). Data from 2011 to 2015 were obtained from audited integrated financial statements, websites, publications and annual reports. CSI indexes and financial presentation measures of companies were taken from the annual reports to be analysed using simple regression equation to examine the link between corporate social investments to company’s fiscal presentation. This study revealed a strong positive linkage among company’s social investment strategy implementation and share price, turnover, and return on equity. Companies that implemented social investment strategy noticed increase in profit because of factors such customer awareness, good firm reputation and competitive advantage.

Organizations invest in team-based systems in order to generate innovative practices that will give them a competitive edge. High-performing teams require training and other support systems to gain the skills they need as well as to create and maintain an environment conducive to their success. The challenge for managers is to make resource allocation decisions among investment alternatives to maximize team effectiveness and still ensure a financial return for company investors. This study has three objectives. The first objective is to investigate whether there is a positive relationship among organizational environment, team potency (the team's collective belief it will succeed) and team performance. Results indicate that the presence of four organizational support systems influences team potency and performance. These support systems are the Design and Measurement, Rewards, Training and Communications Systems. In addition, results indicate that team potency is a mediating variable between the Design and Measurement and Communications Systems and team performance. These results suggest that companies are able to influence team performance by investing in environmental support systems. The second objective is to examine whether team members and managers view the organizational environment differently. Results indicate that managers view the Training and Communications Systems as more important, while teams perceive the Design and Measurement System and the Rewards System to be more important to their success. Since the systems that team managers view as important may influence their investment decisions, these differences may suggest a resource alignment issue. Third, a measure of team effectiveness based on financial measures is introduced. Published literature emphasizes attitudinal, behavioral and operational measures of performance. A financial measure offers a method of evaluating performance that is similar to methods used in capital budgeting and may be consistently applied across different types of teams with different purposes. The data collection process was performed by persons external to the team and covered a 12-month period. This method led to a loss of information and did not accurately portray team performance. However, the teams that were successful in calculating project savings were different types of teams from both manufacturing and service industries. This result is encouraging and warrants further investigation.

This study aims to define marketing orientation, identify it in practice, and examine its association with company financial performance. An empirical analysis is made of marketing orientation of a sample of companies. These are analyzed by financial performance, level of technology and company size. Extant marketing literature is used to develop a model of marketing orientation. This is examined, operationalized and tested. The research methodology involves a sampling frame of all manufacturing firms in Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes 320 (industrial plant and steelwork) and SIC 330 (manufacture of office machinery and data processing equipment). These industry sectors are chosen to include the technology dimension in the study. The first sector is classified as 'low-tech': second as ... 'high-tech'. This classification is based on industry averages for R&D expenditure. The study is confined to specific industry sectors and to manufacturing companies in order to make meaningful inter-company comparison of financial performance, measured here using 3-year average for: i) return on capital employed ii) profit margin. Data collection is by a postal survey of chief executive officers to study marketing practices from a preselected framework in order to assess marketing orientation of sample companies and to study its relationship with their financial performance. . The results (based on response from 84 companies -- 42 in each of the two industry sectors) show no significant association between marketing orientation and financial performance. For the sample used in this study, high-tech companies tend to be more marketing oriented than low-tech firms. Also, for both industry sectors, large-sized companies are more marketing oriented than small companies.

Emergency Relief (ER) is a Department of Social Services (DSS) funded program, delivered by 197 community organisations (ER Providers) across Australia, to assist people facing a financial crisis with financial/material aid and referrals to other support programs. ER has been playing this important role in Australian communities since 1979. Without ER, more people living in Australia who experience a financial crisis might face further harm such as crippling debt or homelessness. The Emergency Relief National Coordination Group (NCG) was established in April 2020 at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic to advise the Minister for Families and Social Services on the implementation of ER. To inform its advice to the Minister, the NCG partnered with the Institute for Governance at the University of Canberra to conduct research to understand the issues and challenges faced by ER Providers and Service Users in local contexts across Australia. The research involved a desktop review of the existing literature on ER service provision, a large survey which all Commonwealth ER Providers were invited to participate in (and 122 responses were received), interviews with a purposive sample of 18 ER Providers, and the development of a program logic and theory of change for the Commonwealth ER program to assess progress. The surveys and interviews focussed on ER Provider perceptions of the strengths, weaknesses, future challenges, and areas of improvement for current ER provision. The trend of increasing case complexity, the effectiveness of ER service delivery models in achieving outcomes for Service Users, and the significance of volunteering in the sector were investigated. Separately, an evaluation of the performance of the NCG was conducted and a summary of the evaluation is provided as an appendix to this report. Several themes emerged from the review of the existing literature such as service delivery shortcomings in dealing with case complexity, the effectiveness of case management, and repeat requests for service. Interviews with ER workers and Service Users found that an uplift in workforce capability was required to deal with increasing case complexity, leading to recommendations for more training and service standards. Several service evaluations found that ER delivered with case management led to high Service User satisfaction, played an integral role in transforming the lives of people with complex needs, and lowered repeat requests for service. A large longitudinal quantitative study revealed that more time spent with participants substantially decreased the number of repeat requests for service; and, given that repeat requests for service can be an indicator of entrenched poverty, not accessing further services is likely to suggest improvement. The interviews identified the main strengths of ER to be the rapid response and flexible use of funds to stabilise crisis situations and connect people to other supports through strong local networks. Service Users trusted the system because of these strengths, and ER was often an access point to holistic support. There were three main weaknesses identified. First, funding contracts were too short and did not cover the full costs of the program—in particular, case management for complex cases. Second, many Service Users were dependent on ER which was inconsistent with the definition and intent of the program. Third, there was inconsistency in the level of service received by Service Users in different geographic locations. These weaknesses can be improved upon with a joined-up approach featuring co-design and collaborative governance, leading to the successful commissioning of social services. The survey confirmed that volunteers were significant for ER, making up 92% of all workers and 51% of all hours worked in respondent ER programs. Of the 122 respondents, volunteers amounted to 554 full-time equivalents, a contribution valued at $39.4 million. In total there were 8,316 volunteers working in the 122 respondent ER programs. The sector can support and upskill these volunteers (and employees in addition) by developing scalable training solutions such as online training modules, updating ER service standards, and engaging in collaborative learning arrangements where large and small ER Providers share resources. More engagement with peak bodies such as Volunteering Australia might also assist the sector to improve the focus on volunteer engagement. Integrated services achieve better outcomes for complex ER cases—97% of survey respondents either agreed or strongly agreed this was the case. The research identified the dimensions of service integration most relevant to ER Providers to be case management, referrals, the breadth of services offered internally, co-location with interrelated service providers, an established network of support, workforce capability, and Service User engagement. Providers can individually focus on increasing the level of service integration for their ER program to improve their ability to deal with complex cases, which are clearly on the rise. At the system level, a more joined-up approach can also improve service integration across Australia. The key dimensions of this finding are discussed next in more detail. Case management is key for achieving Service User outcomes for complex cases—89% of survey respondents either agreed or strongly agreed this was the case. Interviewees most frequently said they would provide more case management if they could change their service model. Case management allows for more time spent with the Service User, follow up with referral partners, and a higher level of expertise in service delivery to support complex cases. Of course, it is a costly model and not currently funded for all Service Users through ER. Where case management is not available as part of ER, it might be available through a related service that is part of a network of support. Where possible, ER Providers should facilitate access to case management for Service Users who would benefit. At a system level, ER models with a greater component of case management could be implemented as test cases. Referral systems are also key for achieving Service User outcomes, which is reflected in the ER Program Logic presented on page 31. The survey and interview data show that referrals within an integrated service (internal) or in a service hub (co-located) are most effective. Where this is not possible, warm referrals within a trusted network of support are more effective than cold referrals leading to higher take-up and beneficial Service User outcomes. However, cold referrals are most common, pointing to a weakness in ER referral systems. This is because ER Providers do not operate or co-locate with interrelated services in many cases, nor do they have the case management capacity to provide warm referrals in many other cases. For mental illness support, which interviewees identified as one of the most difficult issues to deal with, ER Providers offer an integrated service only 23% of the time, warm referrals 34% of the time, and cold referrals 43% of the time. A focus on referral systems at the individual ER Provider level, and system level through a joined-up approach, might lead to better outcomes for Service Users. The program logic and theory of change for ER have been documented with input from the research findings and included in Section 4.3 on page 31. These show that ER helps people facing a financial crisis to meet their immediate needs, avoid further harm, and access a path to recovery. The research demonstrates that ER is fundamental to supporting vulnerable people in Australia and should therefore continue to be funded by government.

1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lower than estimates from January’s Monetary Policy Report (-7.2%). High-frequency indicators suggest that economic performance was significantly more dynamic than expected in January, despite mobility restrictions and quarantine measures. This has also come amid declines in total and core inflation, the latter of which was below January projections if controlling for certain relative price changes. This suggests that the unexpected strength of recent growth contains elements of demand, and that excess capacity, while significant, could be lower than previously estimated. Nevertheless, uncertainty over the measurement of excess capacity continues to be unusually high and marked both by variations in the way different economic sectors and spending components have been affected by the pandemic, and by uneven price behavior. The size of excess capacity, and in particular the evolution of the pandemic in forthcoming quarters, constitute substantial risks to the macroeconomic forecast presented in this report. Despite the unexpected strength of the recovery, the technical staff continues to project ample excess capacity that is expected to remain on the forecast horizon, alongside core inflation that will likely remain below the target. Domestic demand remains below 2019 levels amid unusually significant uncertainty over the size of excess capacity in the economy. High national unemployment (14.6% for February 2021) reflects a loose labor market, while observed total and core inflation continue to be below 2%. Inflationary pressures from the exchange rate are expected to continue to be low, with relatively little pass-through on inflation. This would be compatible with a negative output gap. Excess productive capacity and the expectation of core inflation below the 3% target on the forecast horizon provide a basis for an expansive monetary policy posture. The technical staff’s assessment of certain shocks and their expected effects on the economy, as well as the presence of several sources of uncertainty and related assumptions about their potential macroeconomic impacts, remain a feature of this report. The coronavirus pandemic, in particular, continues to affect the public health environment, and the reopening of Colombia’s economy remains incomplete. The technical staff’s assessment is that the COVID-19 shock has affected both aggregate demand and supply, but that the impact on demand has been deeper and more persistent. Given this persistence, the central forecast accounts for a gradual tightening of the output gap in the absence of new waves of contagion, and as vaccination campaigns progress. The central forecast continues to include an expected increase of total and core inflation rates in the second quarter of 2021, alongside the lapse of the temporary price relief measures put in place in 2020. Additional COVID-19 outbreaks (of uncertain duration and intensity) represent a significant risk factor that could affect these projections. Additionally, the forecast continues to include an upward trend in sovereign risk premiums, reflected by higher levels of public debt that in the wake of the pandemic are likely to persist on the forecast horizon, even in the context of a fiscal adjustment. At the same time, the projection accounts for the shortterm effects on private domestic demand from a fiscal adjustment along the lines of the one currently being proposed by the national government. This would be compatible with a gradual recovery of private domestic demand in 2022. The size and characteristics of the fiscal adjustment that is ultimately implemented, as well as the corresponding market response, represent another source of forecast uncertainty. Newly available information offers evidence of the potential for significant changes to the macroeconomic scenario, though without altering the general diagnosis described above. The most recent data on inflation, growth, fiscal policy, and international financial conditions suggests a more dynamic economy than previously expected. However, a third wave of the pandemic has delayed the re-opening of Colombia’s economy and brought with it a deceleration in economic activity. Detailed descriptions of these considerations and subsequent changes to the macroeconomic forecast are presented below. The expected annual decline in GDP (-0.3%) in the first quarter of 2021 appears to have been less pronounced than projected in January (-4.8%). Partial closures in January to address a second wave of COVID-19 appear to have had a less significant negative impact on the economy than previously estimated. This is reflected in figures related to mobility, energy demand, industry and retail sales, foreign trade, commercial transactions from selected banks, and the national statistics agency’s (DANE) economic tracking indicator (ISE). Output is now expected to have declined annually in the first quarter by 0.3%. Private consumption likely continued to recover, registering levels somewhat above those from the previous year, while public consumption likely increased significantly. While a recovery in investment in both housing and in other buildings and structures is expected, overall investment levels in this case likely continued to be low, and gross fixed capital formation is expected to continue to show significant annual declines. Imports likely recovered to again outpace exports, though both are expected to register significant annual declines. Economic activity that outpaced projections, an increase in oil prices and other export products, and an expected increase in public spending this year account for the upward revision to the 2021 growth forecast (from 4.6% with a range between 2% and 6% in January, to 6.0% with a range between 3% and 7% in April). As a result, the output gap is expected to be smaller and to tighten more rapidly than projected in the previous report, though it is still expected to remain in negative territory on the forecast horizon. Wide forecast intervals reflect the fact that the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant source of uncertainty on these projections. The delay in the recovery of economic activity as a result of the resurgence of COVID-19 in the first quarter appears to have been less significant than projected in the January report. The central forecast scenario expects this improved performance to continue in 2021 alongside increased consumer and business confidence. Low real interest rates and an active credit supply would also support this dynamic, and the overall conditions would be expected to spur a recovery in consumption and investment. Increased growth in public spending and public works based on the national government’s spending plan (Plan Financiero del Gobierno) are other factors to consider. Additionally, an expected recovery in global demand and higher projected prices for oil and coffee would further contribute to improved external revenues and would favor investment, in particular in the oil sector. Given the above, the technical staff’s 2021 growth forecast has been revised upward from 4.6% in January (range from 2% to 6%) to 6.0% in April (range from 3% to 7%). These projections account for the potential for the third wave of COVID-19 to have a larger and more persistent effect on the economy than the previous wave, while also supposing that there will not be any additional significant waves of the pandemic and that mobility restrictions will be relaxed as a result. Economic growth in 2022 is expected to be 3%, with a range between 1% and 5%. This figure would be lower than projected in the January report (3.6% with a range between 2% and 6%), due to a higher base of comparison given the upward revision to expected GDP in 2021. This forecast also takes into account the likely effects on private demand of a fiscal adjustment of the size currently being proposed by the national government, and which would come into effect in 2022. Excess in productive capacity is now expected to be lower than estimated in January but continues to be significant and affected by high levels of uncertainty, as reflected in the wide forecast intervals. The possibility of new waves of the virus (of uncertain intensity and duration) represents a significant downward risk to projected GDP growth, and is signaled by the lower limits of the ranges provided in this report. Inflation (1.51%) and inflation excluding food and regulated items (0.94%) declined in March compared to December, continuing below the 3% target. The decline in inflation in this period was below projections, explained in large part by unanticipated increases in the costs of certain foods (3.92%) and regulated items (1.52%). An increase in international food and shipping prices, increased foreign demand for beef, and specific upward pressures on perishable food supplies appear to explain a lower-than-expected deceleration in the consumer price index (CPI) for foods. An unexpected increase in regulated items prices came amid unanticipated increases in international fuel prices, on some utilities rates, and for regulated education prices. The decline in annual inflation excluding food and regulated items between December and March was in line with projections from January, though this included downward pressure from a significant reduction in telecommunications rates due to the imminent entry of a new operator. When controlling for the effects of this relative price change, inflation excluding food and regulated items exceeds levels forecast in the previous report. Within this indicator of core inflation, the CPI for goods (1.05%) accelerated due to a reversion of the effects of the VAT-free day in November, which was largely accounted for in February, and possibly by the transmission of a recent depreciation of the peso on domestic prices for certain items (electric and household appliances). For their part, services prices decelerated and showed the lowest rate of annual growth (0.89%) among the large consumer baskets in the CPI. Within the services basket, the annual change in rental prices continued to decline, while those services that continue to experience the most significant restrictions on returning to normal operations (tourism, cinemas, nightlife, etc.) continued to register significant price declines. As previously mentioned, telephone rates also fell significantly due to increased competition in the market. Total inflation is expected to continue to be affected by ample excesses in productive capacity for the remainder of 2021 and 2022, though less so than projected in January. As a result, convergence to the inflation target is now expected to be somewhat faster than estimated in the previous report, assuming the absence of significant additional outbreaks of COVID-19. The technical staff’s year-end inflation projections for 2021 and 2022 have increased, suggesting figures around 3% due largely to variation in food and regulated items prices. The projection for inflation excluding food and regulated items also increased, but remains below 3%. Price relief measures on indirect taxes implemented in 2020 are expected to lapse in the second quarter of 2021, generating a one-off effect on prices and temporarily affecting inflation excluding food and regulated items. However, indexation to low levels of past inflation, weak demand, and ample excess productive capacity are expected to keep core inflation below the target, near 2.3% at the end of 2021 (previously 2.1%). The reversion in 2021 of the effects of some price relief measures on utility rates from 2020 should lead to an increase in the CPI for regulated items in the second half of this year. Annual price changes are now expected to be higher than estimated in the January report due to an increased expected path for fuel prices and unanticipated increases in regulated education prices. The projection for the CPI for foods has increased compared to the previous report, taking into account certain factors that were not anticipated in January (a less favorable agricultural cycle, increased pressure from international prices, and transport costs). Given the above, year-end annual inflation for 2021 and 2022 is now expected to be 3% and 2.8%, respectively, which would be above projections from January (2.3% and 2,7%). For its part, expected inflation based on analyst surveys suggests year-end inflation in 2021 and 2022 of 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively. There remains significant uncertainty surrounding the inflation forecasts included in this report due to several factors: 1) the evolution of the pandemic; 2) the difficulty in evaluating the size and persistence of excess productive capacity; 3) the timing and manner in which price relief measures will lapse; and 4) the future behavior of food prices. Projected 2021 growth in foreign demand (4.4% to 5.2%) and the supposed average oil price (USD 53 to USD 61 per Brent benchmark barrel) were both revised upward. An increase in long-term international interest rates has been reflected in a depreciation of the peso and could result in relatively tighter external financial conditions for emerging market economies, including Colombia. Average growth among Colombia’s trade partners was greater than expected in the fourth quarter of 2020. This, together with a sizable fiscal stimulus approved in the United States and the onset of a massive global vaccination campaign, largely explains the projected increase in foreign demand growth in 2021. The resilience of the goods market in the face of global crisis and an expected normalization in international trade are additional factors. These considerations and the expected continuation of a gradual reduction of mobility restrictions abroad suggest that Colombia’s trade partners could grow on average by 5.2% in 2021 and around 3.4% in 2022. The improved prospects for global economic growth have led to an increase in current and expected oil prices. Production interruptions due to a heavy winter, reduced inventories, and increased supply restrictions instituted by producing countries have also contributed to the increase. Meanwhile, market forecasts and recent Federal Reserve pronouncements suggest that the benchmark interest rate in the U.S. will remain stable for the next two years. Nevertheless, a significant increase in public spending in the country has fostered expectations for greater growth and inflation, as well as increased uncertainty over the moment in which a normalization of monetary policy might begin. This has been reflected in an increase in long-term interest rates. In this context, emerging market economies in the region, including Colombia, have registered increases in sovereign risk premiums and long-term domestic interest rates, and a depreciation of local currencies against the dollar. Recent outbreaks of COVID-19 in several of these economies; limits on vaccine supply and the slow pace of immunization campaigns in some countries; a significant increase in public debt; and tensions between the United States and China, among other factors, all add to a high level of uncertainty surrounding interest rate spreads, external financing conditions, and the future performance of risk premiums. The impact that this environment could have on the exchange rate and on domestic financing conditions represent risks to the macroeconomic and monetary policy forecasts. Domestic financial conditions continue to favor recovery in economic activity. The transmission of reductions to the policy interest rate on credit rates has been significant. The banking portfolio continues to recover amid circumstances that have affected both the supply and demand for loans, and in which some credit risks have materialized. Preferential and ordinary commercial interest rates have fallen to a similar degree as the benchmark interest rate. As is generally the case, this transmission has come at a slower pace for consumer credit rates, and has been further delayed in the case of mortgage rates. Commercial credit levels stabilized above pre-pandemic levels in March, following an increase resulting from significant liquidity requirements for businesses in the second quarter of 2020. The consumer credit portfolio continued to recover and has now surpassed February 2020 levels, though overall growth in the portfolio remains low. At the same time, portfolio projections and default indicators have increased, and credit establishment earnings have come down. Despite this, credit disbursements continue to recover and solvency indicators remain well above regulatory minimums. 1.2 Monetary policy decision In its meetings in March and April the BDBR left the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.75%.