Academic literature on the topic 'First oil shock'

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Journal articles on the topic "First oil shock"

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Lee, Kiseok, Wensheng Kang, and Ronald A. Ratti. "OIL PRICE SHOCKS, FIRM UNCERTAINTY, AND INVESTMENT." Macroeconomic Dynamics 15, S3 (2011): 416–36. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100511000496.

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This paper seeks to answer the following questions: Do oil price shocks affect firms' investment decisions? Do oil price shocks affect investment decisions differentially depending on firm-specific uncertainty? Over what time horizon do oil price shocks affect high-uncertainty firms? Is the intensity of the oil price shock important, or just its existence? It is found that oil price shocks depress firms' investment decisions, and do so differentially by depressing investment more for more uncertain firms. Oil shocks affect investment for at least the first and second year after the shock. In t
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Fattahi, Shahram, Zainab Moridi, and Rasoul Moridi. "The Impact of Oil Shocks on Exchange Rates: The Case of Selected OPEC Countries." Applied Finance and Accounting 7, no. 2 (2021): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.11114/afa.v7i2.5188.

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OPEC countries are heavily dependent on oil dollar revenues through which impact on exchange rates. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of oil shocks on the real exchange rates for selected OPEC countries for the period 1980-2018. The oil shocks are first obtained using the vector auto-regression model and then their effects on the exchange rates are estimated using a panel quantile regression model. The results show that effect of oil shocks on exchange rates varies across quantiles. The oil specific-demand shock and global demand shock have a negative and significant effec
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Zhang, Rufei, Haizhen Zhang, Wang Gao, Ting Li, and Shixiong Yang. "The Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Exchange Rates—From a Time-Varying Perspective." Sustainability 14, no. 14 (2022): 8452. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su14148452.

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This study investigates the time-varying effects of three types of oil price shocks (oil demand, supply, and risk shock) on exchange rates by applying the time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression stochastic volatility (TVP-SVAR-SV) model. Through examining the impulse response of exchange rates to oil price shocks at different lag periods and time points, this paper contributes to the existing literature on the dynamic relationship between oil shocks and exchange rates. From the response at different lag periods, we find that oil price shocks have a significant time-varying impa
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Castro, César, Rebeca Jiménez-Rodríguez, and Renatas Kizys. "Time-Varying Relation between Oil Shocks and European Stock Market Returns." Journal of Risk and Financial Management 16, no. 3 (2023): 174. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jrfm16030174.

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This paper considers a time-varying parameter vector autoregression model to analyze the varying impact of three types of structural oil shocks (the supply-side shock, the aggregate demand shock, and the oil-specific demand shock) on the European stock market since the 1990s. Our findings show that the three types of oil shocks heterogeneously influence stock market returns in the euro area, and that this influence considerably changes over time during the period considered. First, an unexpected increase in oil supply appears to exert a positive but generally declining effect in the period bef
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Sadath, Anver Chittangadan, and Rajesh Herolli Acharya. "The macroeconomic effects of increase and decrease in oil prices: evidences of asymmetric effects from India." International Journal of Energy Sector Management 15, no. 3 (2021): 647–64. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/ijesm-02-2020-0009.

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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to assess whether oil price shocks emanating from oil price increase and decrease have a different impact on the macroeconomic activity. Design/methodology/approach This study conducts the empirical analysis using structural vector auto-regressive model on Indian data for the period from 1996 to 2017. This paper uses four key macroeconomic variables, namely, real gross domestic product (GDP), the real rate of interest, real money supply, wholesale price index inflation and various linear and non-linear measures of oil price shock. Findings Empirical results
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Mihut, Marius Ioan, and Decean Liviu Daniel. "First Oil Shock Impact on the Japanese Economy." Procedia Economics and Finance 3 (2012): 1042–48. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/s2212-5671(12)00271-7.

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Herrera, Ana María. "OIL PRICE SHOCKS, INVENTORIES, AND MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS." Macroeconomic Dynamics 22, no. 3 (2018): 620–39. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/s1365100516000225.

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This paper investigates the time delay in the transmission of oil price shocks using disaggregated manufacturing data on inventories and sales. VAR estimates indicate that industry-level inventories and sales respond faster to an oil price shock than aggregate gross domestic product, especially in industries that are energy-intensive. In response to an unexpected oil price increase, sales drop and inventories are accumulated. This leads to future reductions in production. We estimate a modified linear–quadratic inventory model to inquire whether the patterns observed in the VAR impulse respons
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Lukasevich, I. Ya. "The impact of oil shocks on the Russian stock market: an empirical study." Management and Business Administration, no. 2 (June 2020): 121–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.33983/2075-1826-2020-2-121-133.

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The paper is devoted to the study of approaches to assessing the impact of external macroeconomic shocks on the Russian stock market. A sharp drop in oil prices (oil shock) is considered as a macroeconomic shock. The analysis of possible approaches to solving this problem is carried out, and their theoretical generalization is given. Based on an extensive sample of daily values of prices for Brent oil and the Russian stock index RTS for the period from 1998 to the first half of 2020, a study was conducted on the dependence of the domestic stock market on the global oil market. An approach to a
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DRAMA, Bédi Guy Hervé. "Asymmetric Effects of COVID-19 Deaths and Oil Price Shocks on Stock Market Returns in Some Selected African Countries: Evidence From Nonlinear ARDL Approach." International Research in Economics and Finance 8, no. 1 (2024): 1. http://dx.doi.org/10.20849/iref.v8i1.1441.

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This study investigates the asymmetric impact of oil price shocks and COVID-19 total deaths on Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria and South Africa stock market returns. To achieve this objective employing weekly time series data from March 13, 2020 to September 23, 2022, first, we apply the BDS test which confirm the nonlinearity of each series. Second, stationarity tests are used to investigate each series for unit root. The results show that series are stationary in level and in first difference. Third, the bounds test reveals that the series have a cointegration relationship and we apply the nonlinear
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Chinoy, Sajjid Z., and Toshi Jain. "What Does Oil in Triple Digits Mean for India?" Indian Public Policy Review 3, no. 2 (Mar-Apr) (2022): 1–14. http://dx.doi.org/10.55763/ippr.2022.03.02.001.

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 The Russia-Ukraine conflict is expected to impact India’s economy through several channels but we posit first order impacts will emanate from higher crude prices. If crude prices were to average $100/barrel in 2022, they will constitute a discernible adverse terms of trade shock for India’s economy that could shave a percentage point off India’s growth, pressure inflation further and widen the current account deficit towards 3% of GDP. How should policy respond? A negative terms of trade shock would argue for a more depreciated equilibrium real effective exchange ra
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Dissertations / Theses on the topic "First oil shock"

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Spiteri, Gabriele <1990&gt. "The first oil price shock of the new millennium." Master's Degree Thesis, Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/10579/7838.

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Il lavoro mira a fornire un quadro interpretativo in cui collocare la straordinaria ascesa dei prezzi che, a partire dai primi anni Duemila, portò il greggio a sfiorare i 150 dollari al barile nel luglio 2008. Dopo una panoramica delle cause più spesso invocate dagli addetti ai lavori nell'ambito di un vero e proprio dibattito politico e accademico, si evidenziano le condizioni sine qua non del darsi della crisi petrolifera, ossia una capacità produttiva inutilizzata ridotta ai minimi termini e un settore di raffinazione inadeguato a distillare la sempre più crescente offerta di petroli pesant
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Ndong, Emane Chuberlin Léandre. "Le pétrole de l'Afrique subsaharienne : un enjeu stratégique dans la genèse de l'industrie pétrolière publique française (1928-1977)." Electronic Thesis or Diss., Sorbonne université, 2023. https://accesdistant.sorbonne-universite.fr/login?url=https://theses-intra.sorbonne-universite.fr/2023SORUL044.pdf.

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Au sortir de la Seconde guerre mondiale, la France tire ses leçons de ce conflit. L’énergie est utilisée à des fins géostratégiques et géopolitiques de démonstration de puissance. Les deux grandes guerres mondiales révèlent ainsi, le pétrole comme un objet d’influence, de rapport et de force capable d’octroyer la victoire à quiconque le possède. À cet effet, comme le souligne le Comte de Fels : « La Nation qui n’a pas de pétrole, n’aura plus désormais de marine, d’armée et de crédit, et tombera dans la catégorie humiliée des nations subordonnées (…). Sans pétrole, il n’y a pas de véritable ind
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Books on the topic "First oil shock"

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H, Preeg Ernest, Bendahmane Diane B, and Center for the Study of Foreign Affairs (U.S.), eds. New dimensions in foreign economic policy: Industrial -- oil -- banking : three symposia, National industrial policy (Japan -- France -- Korea -- Brazil); Ten years after the first oil shock; The future of internationa banking. Center for the Study of Foreign Affairs, Foreign Service Institute, U.S. Dept. of State, 1986.

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H, Preeg Ernest, Bendahmane Diane B, and Center for the Study of Foreign Affairs (U.S.), eds. New dimensions in foreign economic policy: Industrial -- oil -- banking : three symposia, National industrial policy (Japan -- France --Korea -- Brazil); Ten years after the first oil shock; The future of international banking. Center for the Study of Foreign Affairs, Foreign Service Institute, U.S. Dept. of State, 1986.

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Oil shock: Potential for crisis : hearing before the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming, House of Representatives, One Hundred Tenth Congress, first session, November 7, 2007. U.S. G.P.O., 2010.

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Garavini, Giuliano. The Rise and Fall of OPEC in the Twentieth Century. Oxford University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198832836.001.0001.

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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is one of the most recognizable acronyms among international organizations. It is mainly associated with the “oil shock” of 1973 when the price of petroleum increased fourfold and industrialized countries and consumers were forced to face the limits of their development model. This is the first history of OPEC and of its members written by a professional historian. It carries the reader from the formation of the first petrostate in the world, Venezuela in the late 1920s, to the global ascent of petrostates and OPEC in the 1970s, to t
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Sumner, Andy. Pseudo-Miracles. Oxford University Press, 2018. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198792369.003.0005.

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In this chapter, we consider the ‘miracle’ in its heady heyday of exceptionally fast growth rates and structural transformation from the mid 1980s to the eve of the Asian financial crisis in the mid to late 1990s. We argue for a simpler explanation of rapid growth and structural transformation in this period in South East Asia. That is, that changes in international prices—the global oil price shock—induced a crisis. Then a new form of developmentalism evolved which opportunistically took advantage of another change in global prices—national exchange rates vis-à-vis the US dollar and yen, and
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Boltho, Andrea. Italy, Germany, Japan. Edited by Gianni Toniolo. Oxford University Press, 2013. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199936694.013.0004.

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Over the last six decades, economic developments in the three countries that were defeated in World War II look strikingly similar. First came rapid reconstruction. Then followed the economic miracles of the Golden Age. The years that went from the first oil shock to the mid-1990s still saw fairly robust, and relatively similar, economic developments. Finally, during the last 15 years, the three countries held the dubious record of having the lowest output growth rates in the OECD area. The chapter looks primarily at Italy, using the examples of Germany and Japan to search for parallels and co
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Roberts, George, George Krauss, and Richard Kennedy. Tool Steels. 5th ed. ASM International, 1998. http://dx.doi.org/10.31399/asm.tb.ts5.9781627083584.

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Tool Steels, Fifth Edition provides tutorial explanations along with engineering data on the production, selection, and use of tool steels and related materials. The first six chapters cover topics of a general nature including tool steel classifications and selection factors, primary production processes, the effects of alloying on microstructure and phase composition, and the theory and practice of tool steel heat treatments. The chapters that follow cover specific types or families of tool steels including water-hardening, low-alloy special-purpose, shock-resisting, oil- and air-hardening c
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Callaway, Enoch. Asylum. Praeger, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.5040/9798400615603.

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Meet Sam, the man troopers brought in because he was standing at the center of the turnpike, directing traffic, claiming to be God's police chief on earth. And Mary, a middle-aged women so obsessed with clean hands she has rubbed her palms raw and bloody. Then, too, there is Dr. Hudson Hoagland, who uses an ant farm and peppermint oil to illustrate the ancient roots of society's hostility toward schizophrenics. They are all at Worcester State Hospital, the first state insane asylum established in this nation, and the topic of Dr. Enoch Calloway's fascinating, fast-moving book about this facili
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Book chapters on the topic "First oil shock"

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Lomax, David F. "The First Oil Shock: 1973–4." In The Developing Country Debt Crisis. Palgrave Macmillan UK, 1986. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-1-349-07765-6_2.

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Candelo, Elena. "The First Oil Shock: A Turning Point in Production and Marketing." In Marketing Innovations in the Automotive Industry. Springer International Publishing, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-15999-3_12.

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Dietrich, Christopher RW. "‘First Class Brouhaha’: Henry Kissinger and Oil Power in the 1970s." In Oil Shock. I.B.Tauris, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.5040/9781350987388.ch-002.

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Wight, David M. "The Road to the Oil Shock." In Oil Money. Cornell University Press, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.7591/cornell/9781501715723.003.0003.

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This chapter examines how, in 1973, US president Richard Nixon faced anger and distrust from the US public because of high rates of inflation and the contributing factor of rising oil prices. While the Nixon administration accepted a moderate increase in the cost of MENA (Middle East and North Africa) oil, it opposed a major price rise that would harm the Western economies. Moreover, it expected MENA allies to not challenge key US strategic prerogatives. In October of 1973, the oil-rich countries would defy the United States on both counts. First, the Gulf countries would unilaterally raise th
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Batista, Jorge Chami. "The Brazilian Economy and the First Oil Shock." In Debt and Adjustment Policies in Brazil. Routledge, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.4324/9780429046421-2.

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Oyejide, T. Ademola. "Trade Shock, Oil Boom and the Nigerian Economy, 1973-83." In Trade Shocks in Developing Countries. Oxford University PressOxford, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198293385.003.0012.

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Abstract Nigeria attained its political independence from British colonial rule in 1960 and the economy experienced a period of relative calm over the next four or five years. But between 1966 and 1990, the Nigerian economy experienced a series of shocks of varying magnitudes. Not all of these can be classified as trade shocks, temporary or permanent, but neither were all of them necessarily negative. In fact, it is commonly agreed that as a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and as exporter of the much sought after premium Bonny light crude oil, Nigeria derived
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Garavini, Giuliano. "The Failed Cartel." In The Rise and Fall of OPEC in the Twentieth Century. Oxford University Press, 2019. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198832836.003.0007.

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Chapter 7 describes the rise of non-OPEC oil production, especially in the UK, Norway, and Mexico, and the start of the price-slump at the beginning of the 1980s, also due to increased production coming from these new oil regions. The chapter goes on to explain how OPEC transformed itself for the first time into a cartel, trying to set at the same time the price of petroleum and production levels for its members, and then deals with the failure of such an approach, first with the Saudi struggle for “market share” in the latter half of 1985, and then with the resulting oil “counter-shock” of 19
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Gross, Stephen G. "Chains of Oil, 1956–1973." In Energy and Power. Oxford University PressNew York, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780197667712.003.0004.

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Abstract This chapter shows how the continuing flood of Middle Eastern oil not only brought prosperity to the Federal Republic, but also created problems that further politicized energy in West Germany in the 1960s. First, the accelerating transition to oil forced down hard coal consumption in West Germany, creating stranded assets as mine owners struggled to get out of a dying industry. This sparked West Germany’s second coal crisis, in 1966, which led to unemployment, social disorder, and the reorganization of Ruhr coal into a massive enterprise with no precedent. But the onslaught of Middle
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Ishi, Hiromitsu. "The Emergence of the Bubble Economy and Its Aftermath." In Making Fiscal Policy in Japan. Oxford University PressOxford, 2000. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780199240715.003.0005.

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Abstract Japan’s economy achieved great success in its overall performance until the late 1980s. It had attained the highest rate of economic growth among major industrial countries with no serious problems of unemployment or inflation. Perhaps the first oil shock, caused by the oil embargo of the Arab countries, was an epoch-making incident in that Japan’s weakness became evident, along with its vulnerability as a very resource-poor country. However, the damage of the first oil crisis was successfully limited by cooperation between private business and government policy. After overcoming the
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Auty, Richard M., and Raymond E. Mikesell. "Achieving Social Sustainability." In Sustainable Development in Mineral Economies. Oxford University PressOxford, 1999. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/oso/9780198294870.003.0012.

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Abstract Social sustainability is a relatively new concept which has arisen out of criticism of policy implementation aimed at both the macroeconomic and the micro-( project) levels. The macro-criticism arose in large measure out of the disappointing results of the structural adjustment programmes that were executed with increasing frequency following the first oil shock (Reed 1996). The microeconomic criticism stems from allegations that grass-roots opinion has been neglected in project design and execution, at the cost of both (O’Brien 1997). The effectiveness of macroeconomic, micro and env
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Conference papers on the topic "First oil shock"

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Alawi Kazim, Kamil. "Fiscal policy in Iraq in light of the shocks after 2003." In 11th International Conference of Economic and Administrative Reform: Necessities and Challenges. University of Human Development, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.21928/uhdicearnc/30.

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The Iraqi economy suffers from a triple shock, the first shock represented by the demonstrations that erupted in November 2019, the second shock related to the collapse of oil prices and the reduction of its production under the OPEC + agreement, and the third shock represented by the Corona pandemic and the resulting shock of supply and demand at the same time, and then led to slowing economic growth. The problems of the Iraqi economy are related to the rentier economy, which made the state control its relations with society with the presence of oil rents and dependence on it, which made it m
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Alawi Kazim, Kamil. "Fiscal policy in Iraq in light of the shocks after 2003." In 11th International Conference of Economic and Administrative Reform: Necessities and Challenges. University of Human Development, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.21928/icearnc/30.

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The Iraqi economy suffers from a triple shock, the first shock represented by the demonstrations that erupted in November 2019, the second shock related to the collapse of oil prices and the reduction of its production under the OPEC + agreement, and the third shock represented by the Corona pandemic and the resulting shock of supply and demand at the same time, and then led to slowing economic growth. The problems of the Iraqi economy are related to the rentier economy, which made the state control its relations with society with the presence of oil rents and dependence on it, which made it m
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Lan, Yuzheng, and Larry W. Lake. "Flow Reversibility in Hydrogen Storage in Subsurface Aquifers." In SPE Improved Oil Recovery Conference. SPE, 2024. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/218168-ms.

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Abstract Rising interest in hydrogen as an alternative energy source calls for investigation into how to produce, store and extract hydrogen efficiently from subsurface aquifers. This work studies the storage and extraction of hydrogen underground in aquifers using fractional flow theory. The similarity between injection (to store) and production (to extract) of hydrogen into and from the subsurface is how we define flow reversibility in this work. First, we identify possible sources of irreversibility from the general fractional flow equations because these express how much of the injected hy
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Yarlagadda, Rakesh, M. Affan Badar, and Boris Blyukher. "A Review on Oil and Gas Pipeline Safety." In ASME 2007 International Mechanical Engineering Congress and Exposition. ASMEDC, 2007. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/imece2007-43941.

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The safety of oil and gas pipelines has increasingly considered day by day to their vulnerability. Pipelines play a very critical role in the transportation of oil and natural-gas. As they have become the veins of oil industries, the productive design and analysis became more important. This made them more vulnerable to terrorist attacks. Although it is impossible to design pipelines to withstand any conceivable damage due to external (terrorist attacks, seismic effects) and internal effects (design and manufacturing defects), it is possible to improve the performance of pipelines. By understa
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Cossalter, Vittore, Alberto Doria, Roberto Pegoraro, and Luca Trombetta. "Testing and Modelling of an Advanced Motorcycle Shock Absorber." In ASME 2010 10th Biennial Conference on Engineering Systems Design and Analysis. ASMEDC, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/esda2010-24293.

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In shock absorbers damper-rod force not only depends on damper-rod velocity, but also on position and acceleration. Since hydraulic losses are responsible for velocity-dependent forces, other phenomena are responsible for the dependence of force on position and acceleration, they are: compliances of the chambers and of the seals, compressibility of oil and gas and inertia of oil. The presence of position and/or acceleration-dependent terms in the force causes a hysteresis loop in the force-velocity diagram and a delay between force and velocity in the force-time diagram, which affect the perfo
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Bubić, Jasenka, and Luka Bašić. "GEOPOLITICAL RELATIONS WITH OIL AT THE TIME OF COVID-19: WITHOUT OIL THERE IS NO PRESENT, WITHOUT GREEN ENERGY THERE IS NO FUTURE." In NORDSCI Conference Proceedings. Saima Consult Ltd, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32008/nordsci2021/b2/v4/09.

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Oil drives the entire world economy, and it is entirely a geostrategy issue. The strong development of the economy over the past few decades has provided a global stage for those countries that have a stable political establishment while managing enormous amounts of oil. Now, year after year, it is becoming increasingly clear that the importance of oil and gas is falling away, and it is those energy sources that bring about a reduction in the half-life that comes into the scene. Oil and gas are non-renewable energy sources and as such are naturally limited, therefore their reserve will become
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Zhu, Da, Mohan Sivagnanam, and Ian Gates. "Theoretical and Numerical Investigation of Supersonic Multiphase Gas Injection." In SPE Reservoir Simulation Conference. SPE, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/203911-ms.

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Abstract Supersonic gas injection can help deliver gas uniformly to a reservoir, regardless of reservoir conditions. This technology has played a key role in enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and in particular, thermal enhanced oil recovery operations. Most previous studies have focused on single phase gas injection whereas in most field applications, multiphase and multicomponent situations occur. In the research documented in this paper, we report on results of evaluations of compressible multiphase supersonic gas flows in which gas is the continuous phase is seeded with dispersed liquid droplets
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Koochi, M. Rezaei, A. Rojas, M. A. Varfolomeev, A. Khormali, and A. N. Lishcuk. "Binary Mixture Thermo-Chemical (BiMTheCh) Technology for Development of Low-Permeable Formations of Oil Fields in Caspian Sea." In SPE Caspian Technical Conference and Exhibition. SPE, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/217555-ms.

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Abstract Binary mixture thermo-chemical (BiMTheCh) technology refers to energy-releasing chemicals which can be injected into the reservoir with in-situ generation of heat, nitrogen and carbon dioxide. As laboratory investigations show, BiMTheCh or thermochemical fluid has proved to be a highly effective technology for stimulation of oil wells with heavy oil and low permeability. In this work, the feasibility of this technology for stimulation of brown fields from laboratory to field scale is investigated. First, on the laboratory scale, thermobaric parameters of the reaction were studied to o
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Dongwei, Wang, Liu Mingxing, Wu Xiao, Yan Hao, and Wu Zhiqiang. "Structure Topology Optimization Design and Shock Resistance Study on Nuclear Power Safety DCS Cast Aluminum Cabinet." In 2020 International Conference on Nuclear Engineering collocated with the ASME 2020 Power Conference. American Society of Mechanical Engineers, 2020. http://dx.doi.org/10.1115/icone2020-16774.

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Abstract Offshore floating nuclear power plant (FNPP) is characterized by its small and mobility, which is not only able to provide safe and efficient electric energy to remote islands, but to the oil and gas platforms. The safety digital control system (DCS) cabinet, as a carrier for the electronic devices, plays a significant role in ensuring the normal operation of the nuclear power plant. To satisfy the requirements of cabinet used in the sea environment, such as well rigidity, shock load resistance, good seal and corrosion resistance, etc, more and more attention is focused on the cast al
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Parravicini, M., M. Montini, and E. Vignati. "Short-Term Production Optimization in a Time-Dependent Parameters Scenario." In ADIPEC. SPE, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.2118/216709-ms.

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Abstract Although the pandemic has slowed the entire world for some years, the energy demand is nonetheless set to increase significantly in the coming years, mainly driven by the expectation of an increase in prosperity in the developing world. Renewable energy is expected to play a major role as the main source of energy. Nevertheless, oil and gas production is supposed to remain a key player in the energy scenario with natural gas consumption constantly increasing and oil consumption peaking in 2030. Lately, the world has found itself in the midst of its first global energy crisis - a shock
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Reports on the topic "First oil shock"

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Hausmann, Ricardo. Dealing with Negative Oil Shocks: The Venezuelan Experience in the Eighties. Inter-American Development Bank, 1997. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0011540.

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The Venezuelan experience in the 1980s is a particularly fertile ground for the analysis of negative shocks. Two large shocks took place under very different control regimes, thus highlighting the role the institutional setting plays in determining the response. Moreover, the experience can shed a different light into the convenience of alternative exchange rate regimes for countries subject to large and frequent trade shocks. In addition, the analysis can be simplified for two reasons. First, oil shocks only have direct effects on the public sector, thus implying that it is the policy reactio
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Khadan, Jeetendra. An Econometric Analysis of Energy Revenue and Government Expenditure Shocks on Economic Growth in Trinidad and Tobago. Inter-American Development Bank, 2016. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0011776.

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Energy revenues represent roughly 45 percent of Trinidad and Tobago's GDP and are highly volatile since they are correlated with the price of oil and gas. Hence, sharp changes in energy prices, whether temporary or sustained, can have important consequences for economic growth and overall macroeconomic performance. After the 2014 crash in oil prices, a key challenge that emerged for policymakers in hydrocarbon-exporting countries is how to manage fiscal retrenchment in an environment of subdued growth. Using structural vector autoregression, this article examines three questions related to thi
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Blyde, Juan S., Armando Castelar Pinheiro, Eduardo Fernández-Arias, and Christian Daude. Competitiveness and Growth in Brazil. Inter-American Development Bank, 2010. http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0008992.

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In the first eight decades of the 20th century, Brazil ranked among the countries with highest growth rates in the world. During the period 1930-80, in particular, it managed to reduce its per capita income gap vis-à-vis industrialized economies and seemed poised to escape underdevelopment early in this century. However, this dream never materialized; Brazil's growth performance deteriorated sharply over the following quarter century, never fully recovering from the second oil shock and the foreign debt crisis. In this period Brazil experienced much lower and more volatile growth, with its lon
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Hasanov, Fakhri, Muhammad Javid, and Heyran Aliyeva. The Role of Petrochemical Sector Exports in the Diversification of the Saudi Economy: A Scenario Analysis of Foreign and Domestic Price Shocks. King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, 2023. http://dx.doi.org/10.30573/ks--2023-dp21.

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Diversification of the economy, including exports, is a core goal of Saudi Vision 2030 (SV2030). The petrochemical sector can considerably contribute to the Kingdom’s diversification strategy, as it holds a substantial share in non-oil exports. First, this study econometrically estimated how exports of chemicals and rubber-plastics were shaped by theoretically articulated domestic and foreign factors over the 1993-2020 period. Then, the estimated export equations were integrated into a general equilibrium model, called the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) Global En
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Vargas-Herrera, Hernando, Juan Jose Ospina-Tejeiro, Carlos Alfonso Huertas-Campos, et al. Monetary Policy Report - April de 2021. Banco de la República de Colombia, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr2-2021.

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1.1 Macroeconomic summary Economic recovery has consistently outperformed the technical staff’s expectations following a steep decline in activity in the second quarter of 2020. At the same time, total and core inflation rates have fallen and remain at low levels, suggesting that a significant element of the reactivation of Colombia’s economy has been related to recovery in potential GDP. This would support the technical staff’s diagnosis of weak aggregate demand and ample excess capacity. The most recently available data on 2020 growth suggests a contraction in economic activity of 6.8%, lowe
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Monetary Policy Report - April 2022. Banco de la República, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr2-2022.

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Macroeconomic summary Annual inflation continued to rise in the first quarter (8.5%) and again outpaced both market expectations and the technical staff’s projections. Inflation in major consumer price index (CPI) baskets has accelerated year-to-date, rising in March at an annual rate above 3%. Food prices (25.4%) continued to contribute most to rising inflation, mainly affected by a deterioration in external supply and rising costs of agricultural inputs. Increases in transportation prices and in some utility rates (energy and gas) can explain the acceleration in regulated items prices (8.3%)
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Financial Stability Report - First Semester of 2020. Banco de la República de Colombia, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/rept-estab-fin.1sem.eng-2020.

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In the face of the multiple shocks currently experienced by the domestic economy (resulting from the drop in oil prices and the appearance of a global pandemic), the Colombian financial system is in a position of sound solvency and adequate liquidity. At the same time, credit quality has been recovering and the exposure of credit institutions to firms with currency mismatches has declined relative to previous episodes of sudden drops in oil prices. These trends are reflected in the recent fading of red and blue tonalities in the performance and credit risk segments of the risk heatmaps in Grap
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Monetary Policy Report - July 2022. Banco de la República, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr3-2022.

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In the second quarter, annual inflation (9.67%), the technical staff’s projections and its expectations continued to increase, remaining above the target. International cost shocks, accentuated by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, have been more persistent than projected, thus contributing to higher inflation. The effects of indexation, higher than estimated excess demand, a tighter labor market, inflation expectations that continue to rise and currently exceed 3%, and the exchange rate pressures add to those described above. High core inflation measures as well as in the producer price index (PPI
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Financial Stability Report - Second Semester of 2020. Banco de la República de Colombia, 2021. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/rept-estab-fin.sem2.eng-2020.

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The Colombian financial system has not suffered major structural disruptions during these months of deep economic contraction and has continued to carry out its basic functions as usual, thus facilitating the economy's response to extreme conditions. This is the result of the soundness of financial institutions at the beginning of the crisis, which was reflected in high liquidity and capital adequacy indicators as well as in the timely response of various authorities. Banco de la República lowered its policy interest rates 250 points to 1.75%, the lowest level since the creation of the new ind
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Monetary Policy Report - January 2022. Banco de la República, 2022. http://dx.doi.org/10.32468/inf-pol-mont-eng.tr1-2022.

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Macroeconomic summary Several factors contributed to an increase in projected inflation on the forecast horizon, keeping it above the target rate. These included inflation in December that surpassed expectations (5.62%), indexation to higher inflation rates for various baskets in the consumer price index (CPI), a significant real increase in the legal minimum wage, persistent external and domestic inflationary supply shocks, and heightened exchange rate pressures. The CPI for foods was affected by the persistence of external and domestic supply shocks and was the most significant contributor t
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