Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Fiscal analysis'

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The Budget Control Act of 2011 (BCA; Pub. L. No. 11225, 101, 125 Stat. 240) resulted from downward pressure on federal spending, as tax revenues decreased faster than expenditures and deficits became unsustainable. The BCAs discretionary spending caps mandate that the Department of Defense (DoD) cut $500 billion in outlays between fiscal years 20132022. These spending caps, temporarily delayed by the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 (ATRA; Pub. L. No. 112240, 901, 126 Stat. 2313), were realized on March 1, 2013, when $37 billion was sequestered from DoDs current year budget. The discretionary spending caps and sequester resulted as a consequence of Congresss inability to stipulate $1.2 trillion in cuts over a 10-year period in accordance with the BCA. Challenged by financial retrenchment, the DoD must now make choices within the framework of a new fiscal reality and fewer resources. How do DoDs financial retrenchment choices compare to historical choices of other government, quasi-government, and publicly traded organizations encountering similar fiscal stress? This project creates a framework through examination of comparable government, quasi-government, and publicly traded organizations to conduct a comparative analysis of the DoDs financial retrenchment choices.

The financial crisis of 2007-2009 led to a large increase in the government debt of all advanced economies. In the United States, the debt burden reached levels not seen since the Second World War. In Europe, high fiscal stress evolved into a sovereign debt crisis. My thesis focuses on debt dynamics in advanced economies and the design of policies that can stabilize their fiscal burden. In the first chapter, I provide new evidence and theory on US debt dynamics and their relation with long-term growth forecasts. In the second chapter, I document a novel dataset on the maturity structure of sovereign debt of Euro Area (EA) countries and study the effect of the maturity composition on debt dynamics. Finally, in the third chapter, I analyze empirically the role of debt management in stabilizing the fiscal burden of countries in the EA.

Chapter 1: Sovereign Debt in the US and Growth Expectations

This chapter studies the effect of changes in expectations of long-term GDP growth on US government debt and deficits. Long-term growth expectations are an essential determinant of expected future revenue growth and fiscal solvency. I present evidence that US government debt and deficits are positively correlated with long-term GDP (and revenue) growth forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office between 1984 and 2012. This is robust to controlling for current growth and to using à-la-Kalman estimated forecasts for a longer time span. This stylized fact is novel in the macroeconomics literature and I develop a new model of government behavior that explains it.

My model features endogenous (forward-looking) purchasing behavior for the government. This distinguishes my model from standard macro theories that assume exogenous government purchases, or ad-hoc backward looking policy rules for government purchases. It builds on the recent ‘long-run risks’ literature by assuming shocks to the trend growth rate of total factor productivity. The model matches the observed positive correlation between fiscal deficits and the trend growth rate, based on the government’s desire to smooth public consumption over periods of higher (or lower) long-run productivity growth.

Chapter 2: Government Debt Maturity and Debt Dynamics in EA Countries

This chapter presents a new comprehensive database on sovereign debt stocks and yields, at all maturities, for six EA countries: Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy and Spain between 1991 and 2013. I constructed this database by combining information from different sources (treasuries, national central banks and statistical offices), on a security-by-security basis. A recent literature has shown the importance of debt maturity management in the US - e.g. Hall and Sargent (2011) - however, due to lack of data, this key issue remained unstudied for the EA. Thus, I use my database to study the effect of debt maturity management on the evolution of government debt in EA countries.

My main finding is that debt maturity also had an important effect in debt dynamics of the EA. The debt maturity structure affects debt dynamics because longer maturity shields the government budget from changes in interest rates. In general, interest rates in the EA have fallen since 1991 while treasuries in the region extended debt maturity. Thus, an increasing number of long-term bondholders experienced large capital gains. Counterfactual simulations show the impact of a different maturity structure on the evolution of debt and suggest that extending debt maturity in 2014 and 2015 would result in lower debt ratios by 2022. I also estimate the debt-to-GDP erosion induced by higher current and future inflation and find that inflation would lower the fiscal burden in EA countries much more than in the US.

Chapter 3: Quantifying the Role of Debt Management for Fiscal Self-Insurance in the EA

The last chapter provides evidence of debt management being an effective tool for protecting the government budget from fiscal spending shocks in the EA. In particular, I document that sovereign bonds of EA countries had a significantly lower real return in response to government spending shocks between 1991 and 2013. Importantly, longer bond maturity generally implied a larger drop in returns. This is in line with theories claiming that long-term debt provides fiscal self-insurance. However, my finding suggests that medium-term debt is more effective in hedging against spending shocks.

I identify government spending shocks in a Structural VAR model estimated with both aggregated quarterly fiscal data for the EA and stacked data from individual countries. I also use a simple FAVAR model to distinguish between common and idiosyncratic (country-specific) shocks and document that the former risk was hedged more effectively. The introduction of the Euro reduced the absorption of idiosyncratic shocks (relative to common shocks) by bond returns. However, the European debt crisis brought the degree of fiscal self-insurance against country-specific shocks back to pre-Euro levels. Finally, debt maturity seems to play a minor role in the absorption of country-specific shocks by the return on sovereign bonds.

Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion
info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIOR
O trabalho consiste no desenvolvimento de um modelo para avaliação de bem-estar de política monetária numa economia onde o governo enfrenta alguma restrição à liberdade de financiamento da dívida pública. O governo, no modelo, é capaz de se financiar através da emissão de títulos da dívida e de duas formas de taxação: lump sum e distorciva. A hipótese adotada no trabalho é que o governo não poderá estabelecer um nível constante de taxação distorciva ao longo do tempo, e deixar que o estoque da dívida ou da taxação não distorciva se ajustem em resposta aos choques. Ao contrário, o governo será forçado a alterar a taxação distociva corrente em resposta às variações do serviço da dívida. A partir do modelo, são feitas as considerações sobre o comportamento ótimo da autoridade monetária, no sentido do estabelecimento de uma regra ótima de política monetária.
The dissertation consists in the development of a model to evaluate the welfare effects of monetary policy in an economy where the government faces some restriction to debt financing. The government, in the model, is able to finance its expenditures by issuing public debt or levying two kinds of taxation: lump sum and distortionary taxes. The hypothesis adopted here is that the government cannot set a constant rate of distortionary taxation over time, and let either the debt stock or the lump sum taxation to adjust in response to shocks. Instead, the government will be forced to adjust the current distortionary taxation in response to variations of the debt service. The conclusion is that the optimal monetary policy rule that results from this model is quite different from the optimal rule in the absence of restrictions to debt financing.

The following research completes several statistical analyses of per pupil expenditure data in the Commonwealth of Virginia to assess the degree of fiscal equity in the statewide finance model for public elementary and secondary education. Five years, between 2004 and 2020, were selected for analysis to examine whether trends noted in a 2005 study of fiscal equity in Virginia have remained constant or whether the degree of equity has increased or decreased. A historical overview of the funding of public schools in Virginia and revisions to the Virginia Constitution and its Education Articles provide information about the development of public education in Virginia. This commentary is followed by an explanation of the current funding model, Standards of Quality formula, and legislative criticism of the design elements thereof. School finance reform litigation from across the nation is then reviewed to demonstrate how the constitutionality of state public school finance models has been challenged in both federal and state courts over time. The school finance litigation discussion begins with the broad topic of equal protection guarantees in the federal Constitution and how those guarantees shaped early equity lawsuits. A survey of school finance reform cases is presented to show a progression from equity suits to adequacy suits. The litigation commentary concludes with a discussion of the most recent school finance case in Virginia, Scott v. Commonwealth (1994). After establishing the precedents for the analysis of state funding models, a series of dispersion statistics are calculated based on per pupil expenditures for each of the 132 school divisions in Virginia. These statistics include Range, Restricted Range, Coefficient of Variation, Gini Coefficient, and McLoone Index. The findings of the 2004-2020 analyses are compared to the findings of the 2005 study of fiscal equity in Virginia. The noted results of the analyses have implications for policy makers in the Commonwealth.
Doctor of Education
The following research completes statistical analyses of educational spending data to assess equity in the statewide finance model for public elementary and secondary school in the Commonwealth of Virginia. Five years—2004, 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020—were selected for analysis to examine whether trends noted in a 2005 study of fiscal equity in Virginia have continued or whether the degree of equity has increased or decreased. A historical overview of the funding of public schools in Virginia and revisions to the Virginia Constitution and its Education Articles provide information about the development of public education in Virginia. This commentary is followed by an explanation of the current funding model (the Standards of Quality formula), legislative criticism of the formula, and an overview of school finance reform litigation from across the nation. The school finance litigation discussion begins with equal protection guarantees and develops to show a progression from cases that challenge equity in funding to cases that challenge the adequacy of funding. The litigation commentary concludes with a discussion of the most recent school finance case in Virginia, Scott v. Commonwealth (1994). After establishing the precedents for the analysis of state funding models, a series of statistics are calculated based on per pupil expenditures for each of the 132 school divisions in Virginia. The findings of the 2004-2020 analyses are compared to the findings of the 2005 study of fiscal equity in Virginia. The noted results of the analyses have implications for policy makers in the Commonwealth.

This thesis employs multi-sectoral modelling techniques to analyse the potential impact of Fiscal Devolution for Scotland. A Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) is constructed,which captures the flows of funds in Scotland for 2009.The SAM is then disaggregated to identify the three government sectors operating in Scotland, namely the UK Government, the Scottish Government and the Local Government. Also, the tax account is disaggregated to identify three tax accounts, each corresponding to one of the three government sectors. Moreover, the unified household sector in the SAM is disaggregated to identify seven household sectors by type. The disaggregated government and household accounts are then combined into one SAM.Next, the Type II Input-Output multiplier model and the SAM multiplier model are tested and analysed. Three variants of the Type II output multiplier are tested against the SAM multiplier as a baseline. The results here establish that the SAM multiplier captures the flows of funds in the Scottish economy in the most accurate and comprehensive way. The standard SAM model is then extended to endogenise part of the Government sector in Scotland, the Scottish Government and the Local Government. This enables the model to capture the effects of an exogenous demand shock under different degrees of fiscal devolution for Scotland. The results indicate that a more fiscally autonomous Scotland is subject to higher sensitivities to shocks. Finally, this thesis employs a Computable General Equilibrium model (AMOS) for Scotland. The model is extended to capture the three Government accounts in the SAM. The model is used to simulate a balanced budget fiscal expansion, where the increase in tax revenue funds a rise in government consumption. The results suggest that a positive valuation of the increase in public amenity provision and a full reflection of that in the wage bargaining process are crucial for a net growth outcome.

We address the questions on what determines local government proliferation, specifically on the impact of intergovernmental transfers on proliferation. On exploring the determinants of proliferation, we provide a more elaborate empirical technique than exists in the literature by employing panel binary outcome, survival regression, as well as count analysis to capture the time varying effect from intergovernmental transfers. We also examine the impact of proliferation on service delivery outcomes and construct channels by which the policy may affect the outcomes in the education and health sectors. We apply panel difference-in-difference estimation and we uniquely identify the different treatment group and thus control for the plausible differential impact on outcomes in regards to changes in intergovernmental transfers. On the determinants of local government formation, there are likely competing effects across transfers on the decision to proliferate as well as on the extent of fragmentation given that we find (1) the lump-sum conditional grants positively influence the probability of proliferation, (2) a province with higher median share of equalization grants associates with higher number of local governments, (3) higher equalization grants implies a longer duration to the proliferation event, and (4) higher tax sharing in the proliferated local governments reflects higher stability where stability refers to the longer duration to the sequential proliferation event. The findings suggest the tactical central-local behavior may be present, however, the support of rent-seeking hypothesis on proliferation should not be generalized to overall system of transfers. On the impact from the proliferation policy, the education and health outcomes estimations provide mixed results within the treatment group. The findings shed light on the current practice of administrative or political decentralization, specifically on the competing local-central preferences within each sector on measured service delivery outcomes. The results from difference-in-difference (DID) estimations show support on attainment of education outcome in new local governments represented by a reduction in the dropout rate but not on the quality of education in terms of higher students’ tests scores even though there is a relatively higher conditional grants allocated to the proliferated local governments. Meanwhile, in terms of infant mortality rate, we only find evidence of improvement in infant mortality on the originating local government but not on the new local governments. Controlling for selectivity and production function covariates have not changed the pattern of the impact.

We analyse the role played by data and specification choices as determinants of the size of the fiscal multipliers obtained using structural vector autoregressive models. The results, based on over twenty million fiscal multiplier estimated for European countries, indicate that many seemingly harmless modelling choices have a significant effect on the size and precision of fiscal multiplier estimates. In addition to the structural shock identification strategy, these modelling choices include the definition of spending and taxes, the national accounts system employed, the use of particular interest rates or inflation measures, or whether data are smoothed prior to estimation.
Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

A sizeable literature documents patterns of competition between local governments in metropolitan regions, while also exploring variation in such local government financial attributes as efficiency, budget size, fiscal disparity, and service equity, which are frequently bound together under the concept of fiscal health. However, the concept of fiscal health is broader and more sophisticated than any one fiscal measure, and empirical studies tend to focus only on multi-purpose governments. This study brings these concepts together to investigate how interlocal competition affects the fiscal health of different government types. This study answers three questions: What is a measure of fiscal health applicable to different government types? How does competition among cities and towns affect local fiscal health? How does the proliferation of special districts affect the fiscal health of local governments? This study measures the concept of fiscal health using factor analysis and examines the effects of competition among different government types on the fiscal health of both municipalities and special districts. Utilizing a pooled cross-sectional time-series approach and data from the U.S. Census Bureau for metropolitan statistical areas for every five years between 1972 and 2012,the study finds that competition among municipalities has adverse influences on the fiscal health of both municipalities and special districts, whereas interlocal competition among special districts results in improved fiscal health for special districts without a significant effect on the fiscal health of municipalities.

While competition among companies tends to be beneficial for the general public, this is not necessarily the case for competition among governments. Key in the fiscal competition theory is that the mobility of firms and households yields incentives for governments to aim to improve their relative position through successive undercutting of tax rates and welfare state arrangements. This mechanism has the potential to work as a disciplining device because it ensures that no jurisdiction is allowed to be grossly inefficient, because if it were grossly inefficient, mobile factors of production would move away. The main concern in the theoretical fiscal competition literature, however, has been that fiscal competition lowers government spending below their efficient levels. Another concern related to fiscal competition is that household mobility is likely to undermine attempts by governments to redistribute income. Empirical evaluation of both the existence and consequences of fiscal competition is the central topic of the thesis “An Empirical Analysis of Decentralization, Fiscal Competition and Welfare Policy”.

A particular focus of this thesis is on fiscal competition in welfare policy. With decentralized responsibility for the welfare benefit system in Norway, theory predicts that local governments will behave strategically in setting their welfare policy in order to avoid becoming ‘welfare magnets’. The key finding in Chapter 2 of this thesis is that Norwegian local governments in fact engage in such a ‘welfare game’. A local government will respond with reducing their welfare benefits when neighboring local governments reduce their welfare benefits. Encouraged by the finding in Chapter 2, Chapter 3 seeks to answer the question: Does Welfare Policy Affect Residential Choices? The analysis shows that Norwegian welfare recipients respond to changes in welfare policy by migrating. Local politicians concern about being to generous compared to their peers seem warranted. The analysis in Chapter 4 evaluates whether strategic interaction among Norwegian local governments in property tax decisions occurs. With limited mobility of the tax base and politically highly visible decisions, we interpret the strategic interaction found to be driven by yardstick competition, rather than competition for a mobile tax base. The final chapter differs from the rest in that it utilizes data from 18 OECD countries. The essay analyzes the effects of decentralization of government on the size and composition of government spending. Since jurisdictions with limited geographic scope (such as local governments) are, in general, more likely to face greater competitive pressures than larger ones (such as countries), it follows that the more fiscally decentralized countries are expected to experience stronger fiscal competition. One of the key findings is that decentralization of taxing powers is associated with less transfer spending, but unrelated to government consumption.

Paper I reprinted with kind permission of Elsevier, Sciencedirect.com

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Georgia State University, 2007.
Title from title screen. Jorge L. Martinez-Vazquez, committee chair; Michael B. Binford, Neven T. Valev, Sally Wallace, Yongsheng Xu, committee members. Electronic text (134 p. : ill.) : digital, PDF file. Description based on contents viewed Oct. 4, 2007. Includes bibliographical references (p. 125-133).

The research in this document provides a comprehensive investigation of public K " 12 funding in Virginia over the time period from 1974-75 to 2002-2003. No previous examination has been conducted for the Commonwealth of Virginia that has comprehensively analyzed the data over the life of the current finance formula. Over this approximate thirty-year time period, the trends in fiscal equity among school divisions were determined. The purpose of this research was to provide a better understanding of the current status of funding equity for the Commonwealth of Virginia and to document information that could be used in future litigation concerning the issue of both fiscal equity and educational adequacy. To conduct this study, research studies and information pertaining to national funding issues, as well as Virginia funding issues, were collected and analyzed. This information, as well as prior litigation, was obtained from searches on ERIC, the Internet, and Westlaw. Next, fiscal and student data were obtained from the Virginia Education Association (VEA), the United States Department of Education, Bureau of Federal Impact Aid, and the Virginia Department of Education (VDOE) for the funding periods from FYs 1975 to 2003. These data included information regarding state expenditures, local expenditures, state sales taxes, federal revenue, and other fiscal and non-fiscal data pursuant to each of the approximately one hundred and thirty-five school divisions in Virginia. The study also provided an analysis of the evolution of fiscal equity litigation during this time period. Further, the data obtained from the VEA and VDOE were examined to determine whether the funding disparities among school divisions have become more evident or less evident over this time period. In order to determine this, a series of statistics were applied to comparable data to determine the level of fiscal equity achieved by the Commonwealth for each of the selected fiscal years. The Verstegen-Stevens Fiscal Equity Statistics software was used with permission to apply the generally accepted equity statistics.
Ed. D.

This paper examines the fiscal impact of privatization revenues in 47 developing countries. There are many reasons that privatization is attractive for the central government of developing countries. If substantial, these revenues from the sale of state owned enterprises can present a potential solution to persistent deficits. On the other hand, the privatization revenues could be used to finance an even larger deficit. In this paper, I will discuss previous research on the fiscal impact of privatization revenues, the factors that contribute to persistent fiscal budget deficits and explain how empirical research on the fiscal impact of privatization in the developing world is a logical extension of this research. Using data from the World Bank’s Privatization Database on privatization revenues from the years 1988 to 2008 and panel data techniques, I find that an increase in privatization revenues is correlated with a worsening of the fiscal budget balance, lending support to the hypothesis that revenues from the sales of state owned enterprises are used to finance a larger deficit.

This dissertation examines multiple state and local expenditure categories in the United States to expand understanding of fiscal federalism and spatial interactions among governments. First, the author investigates the relationship between police expenditures and crime rates from a spatial perspective. Both police expenditures and crime rates in one state are found to exhibit a similar pattern to that in neighboring states. Spatial correlation is also detected between police expenditures and crime rates. As police of neighbors in fact deter crime at home, there are positive externalities present among the states. Second, the author conducts new tests on the Leviathan hypothesis, i.e., more competition, smaller government. While cost efficiency is used in place of government size to capture the idea that fiscal decentralization reduces wasteful expenditures, spatial interaction is taken as another measure for decentralization. The hypothesis is supported by some evidence from total, police, highway, and welfare expenditures.

In this study, fiscal sustainability is defined consistent with the government intertemporal budget constraint framework which is related to the solvency of the government. Fiscal sustainability analysis in this context, therefore, considers the revenue side of the budget as well as the expenditure obligations. On the revenue side, the study highlights that fiscal authorities in South Africa continue to rely on income, profit and wealth taxes as they account for a larger share of government revenue compared to indirect taxes. However, immediately prior to the first democratic South Africa, there was a substantial shift from company taxes to personal taxes; a trend that has continued onto 2010. Analyses in this study show that the structure of the main taxes of South Africa compares less favourably to other emerging economies, and the worldwide averages. For instance, even though fiscal authorities have reduced the CIT rate from a high 50% to 28%, this rate is still higher when compared to other upper middle income economies and the rest of the world‟s average. The country compares no better either when the PIT rate is considered but its VAT rate compares favourably to that of the economies mentioned. Since the new era, in particular between 2000 and 2010, fiscal authorities in South Africa focussed on the reduction and stabilisation of marginal tax rates for the major taxes as well minimising the complexity in tax administration by reducing the number of tax brackets. Despite such effort, the wedge between the statutory rates and the realised average tax rates for the three main taxes is a concern regarding the protection of the revenue base. With regards to budget allocations, this study shows that collectively, expenditure on the social sector accounts for slightly below half of government consumption expenditure; specifically, however, there was a reduction in the proportional allocation to Education whilst at the same time the proportional allocations to Social Protection, Public Order and Safety and Social Grants increased. Defence expenditure was high pre-1994 and immediately after the first democratic election, but declined in the later years of the democratic South Africa. In general, the policy of fiscal prudence after 1994 resulted in a substantial decline in debt service cost, whilst the real growth rate of the economy increased considerably. Nevertheless, the former still exceeded the latter for most part of the period between 1994 and 2010. Having reduced its debt burden over the past decades, the South African government again finds itself facing a problem of rising debt due to an increase in the fiscal deficit. On the basis of this background, this study addresses four broad questions, namely: (i) was the fiscal stance taken in the past, sufficient to attain fiscal sustainability in South Africa? (ii) How did fiscal policy in the past adjust to budget imbalances and to what extent did that affect fiscal sustainability? (iii) Which are the optimal ways to v protect the revenue base; and (iv) How does the current fiscal dispensation (i.e. composition of expenditure and tax) affect the economy and inter alia fiscal sustainability? Different econometric techniques, namely: the Smooth Transition Error Correction model; the Logistic quadratic model; the Currency Demand model and the Bayesian Structural Vector Auto Regression Model are applied in the analyses. The findings of this study suggest that fiscal policy over the sample period has been sustainable but likely to be adjusted more quickly when the budget deficit exceeds 4.02% of GDP. However, the stabilisation policies by fiscal authorities are fairly neutral at deficit levels below the estimated threshold; that is, at deficit levels of 4.02% of GDP and below. The fiscal reaction speed of the South African government (i.e. increasing the tax burden) to lower the large deficit levels towards a band of tolerable values, indicate that they are indeed concerned about solvency. Thus, on the basis of this historical fiscal stance, it can be expected that fiscal policy will remain sustainable in the medium-term; and that the government‟s projection to reduce the fiscal deficit from a high 5.3% of GDP in 2010 to 3.0% in 2015 is plausible. In South Africa the main fiscal challenge, therefore, is to find ways through which the recent gains in fiscal solvency are not at the expense of the future revenue base. Consequently, the next objective in this study is to analyse one important element of protecting the revenue base, namely, possible leakages from it. In this regard, shadow economic activity is being investigated. This study finds that on average, the size of the South African shadow economy is 22.18% of GDP with estimated revenue evaded at about 7% of GDP. Further analysis shows that there is a strong positive relationship between the tax burden and shadow income but that this relationship is not symmetric. In South Africa, businesses and individuals are likely to react quicker when the tax burden changes fall outside the band of -3.64% to +2.13% of GDP but remains neutral as long as they are within this band. The implication of this finding is that, any attempt by the fiscal authorities to increase the tax burden to levels above the estimated threshold of 2.13% in order to close the budget deficit might trigger a significant response from the shadow economy thereby reducing the tax base and further worsening the fiscal deficit. Next, the analysis shows that an increase in total government spending has a “crowding–in” effect as real GDP per capita and real private investment respond positively. When government expenditure is disaggregated into consumption and capital expenditure per capita, the analysis shows that a one standard deviation positive shock in government consumption expenditure per capita increases real GDP per capita with a multiplier effect of 0.22, which is higher than the growth multiplier effect (0.16) of government investment expenditure per capita. In addition, the effect of the total tax burden on the GDP and private investment is negative and persistent in the long-term (i.e. after 4 years). The net effect of fiscal policy, therefore, is that it is growth enhancing in the short and medium-terms leading to fiscal sustainability (since r < g) but in the long-term, the growth promoting effects of increased public intervention is offset by the growth inhibiting effects of increased taxes; hence, a threat to long-term fiscal sustainability. vii The composition of the tax regime has a substantial influence on growth; whilst taxes on income and wealth reduce growth, indirect taxes have a positive effect on growth in the short and medium term. On the basis of the above findings the following suggestions are proposed: Firstly, the nature of fiscal policy in South Africa over the post-1994 period has shown to be successful from a fiscal sustainability perspective and should therefore be continued. However, the fact that government only seem to be pro-active in the case when the budget deficit exceeds the 4% margin and actually seem to be fairly neutral at deficit levels below this ratio should be noted. By implementing drastic tax increases in such a scenario could be detrimental to the growth of the revenue base. Conversely, tax relief at lower levels of the margin outlined, and even in times of surpluses could be growth enhancing and should be implemented actively. Secondly, the 2012 medium-term budget document requesting for additional taxes to boost revenue might lead to further growth in the shadow economy, as the projected tax burden increase recommended is above the estimated threshold of 2.13% in this study. Such a reaction from shadow income poses a threat to long-term fiscal sustainability. Thirdly, in their attempt to expand and secure the revenue base fiscal authorities in South Africa should consider further adjustments to the composition of the revenue base. The continuous reliance of the government on direct taxes is shown in this analysis to affect growth adversely, which could destabilise the fiscal gains already achieved. The results of this analysis, therefore, support the international trend towards a shift to indirect taxes from direct taxes. Fourthly, expenditure priorities have to be carefully considered. Fiscal authorities should guard against populist spending patterns and prioritise those expenditures that result in capacity building and enhancing growth and employment. In this regard, the declining trend in expenditure on education and health has to be reversed. A priori, only by focussing its expenditures coupled with enhanced efficiency within such “productive” areas, would government be able to contribute towards enhancing growth which in turn is essential for long-term fiscal sustainability. Thus, the analyses in this study show that in the short- and medium-term, there is no serious threat to fiscal sustainability in South Africa but long-term fiscal sustainability remains a challenge. To enhance long-term fiscal sustainability would require continuous adjustment of policies including the speed of policy adjustment, the stabilisation of the tax burden but with a redirection of focus from direct to indirect taxes; the protection of the revenue base, in particular a reduction in the existing level of tax revenue evaded and the reprioritisation of government expenditures. A broader social and political context of fiscal sustainability has, however, not been included in this study. In a middle income country like South Africa where the role of government is politically and socially important and controversial, future research could explore how the quest to enhance fiscal consolidation can affect political and social stability which may in turn endanger the sustainability of fiscal policy. On the other hand quantifying the fiscal implications of expected developments such as demographic changes, development in health cost and public pension liabilities, could initiate future research on this topic should more relevant data becomes available.
Thesis (PhD)--University of Pretoria, 2013.
gm2013
Economics
unrestricted

Fiscal stress is an important and recurring problem that states face. Research to date on state fiscal stress involves, predominantly, cross-sectional and case study analyses and does not address the effectiveness of state responses. Many of these studies use different definitions and measures of fiscal stress compounding the difficulty of comparing fiscal stress findings. The present research effort adds to the fiscal stress literature by (1) clarifying the meaning of fiscal stress in the state context, (2) developing a measure of fiscal stress that operationalizes this meaning and is comparable across units, and 3) using this measure analyzes patterns in and the effectiveness of state responses. Fiscal stress is measured using four indexes: budget, cash, long-run, service-level. Eleven financial indicators, calculated using data from state Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports (CAFRs), are used to create these indexes for all fifty states for the years 2002-2009. Descriptive analysis compares state fiscal stress levels (grouped into low, moderate, and high fiscal stress by cluster analysis) to state economic growth rates, state responses, and institutional factors yielding several findings. First, states do not use an incremental or punctuated equilibrium strategy in responding to fiscal stress; nor do their responses follow the pattern predicted by Cutback Management theory. Second, institutional factors affect both the levels of fiscal stress and state responses to fiscal stress. Regression analysis supports and extends these findings. First, short-term responses of expenditure cuts, tax increases, and rainy day fund use do not affect state fiscal stress levels. Second, these responses have long-term effects on fiscal stress levels. A major implication of this research is that there is very little states can do in the short-term to reduce fiscal stress. However, by balancing expenditures and revenues states can set themselves up to weather the next economic downturn with lower levels of fiscal stress.

Fiscal stress is an important and recurring problem that states face. Research to date on state fiscal stress involves, predominantly, cross-sectional and case study analyses and does not address the effectiveness of state responses. Many of these studies use different definitions and measures of fiscal stress compounding the difficulty of comparing fiscal stress findings. The present research effort adds to the fiscal stress literature by (1) clarifying the meaning of fiscal stress in the state context, (2) developing a measure of fiscal stress that operationalizes this meaning and is comparable across units, and 3) using this measure analyzes patterns in and the effectiveness of state responses. Fiscal stress is measured using four indexes: budget, cash, long-run, service-level. Eleven financial indicators, calculated using data from state Comprehensive Annual Financial Reports (CAFRs), are used to create these indexes for all fifty states for the years 2002-2009. Descriptive analysis compares state fiscal stress levels (grouped into low, moderate, and high fiscal stress by cluster analysis) to state economic growth rates, state responses, and institutional factors yielding several findings. First, states do not use an incremental or punctuated equilibrium strategy in responding to fiscal stress; nor do their responses follow the pattern predicted by Cutback Management theory. Second, institutional factors affect both the levels of fiscal stress and state responses to fiscal stress. Regression analysis supports and extends these findings. First, short-term responses of expenditure cuts, tax increases, and rainy day fund use do not affect state fiscal stress levels. Second, these responses have long-term effects on fiscal stress levels. A major implication of this research is that there is very little states can do in the short-term to reduce fiscal stress. However, by balancing expenditures and revenues states can set themselves up to weather the next economic downturn with lower levels of fiscal stress.

This study tests the relationship between the current account and fiscal policy for a group of small open developing economies with fixed exchange rate regime, some of which are oil exporters. Specifically, it tests the viewpoint of a Ricardian infinite-horizon representative agent model in which lower public savings are met by equal increases in private savings and as a result the current account does not respond to the changes in government spending, against the Keynesian's conventional viewpoint in which a fall in public savings has an adverse effect on the current account balance.

Within the worldwide business community, many analysis tools and techniques have evolved to assist in the evaluation and encouragement of financial health and fiscal viability. However, in the educational community, such analysis is uncommon. It has long been argued that educational institutions bear little resemblance to, and should not be treated like, businesses. This research identifies an educational environment where educational institutions are, indeed, businesses, and may greatly benefit from the use of business analyses. The worldwide effort of Education for All (EFA) has focused on primary education, particularly in less developed countries (LDCs). In Sub-Saharan Africa, Uganda increased its primary school enrollments from 2.7 million in 1996 to 7.6 million in 2003. This rapid primary school expansion substantially increased the demand for secondary education. Limited government funding for secondary schools created an educational bottleneck. In response to this demand, laws were passed to allow the establishment of private secondary schools, operated and taxed as businesses. Revenue reports, filed by individual private schools with the Uganda Revenue Authority, formed the database for the financial analysis portion of this research. These reports, required of all profitable businesses in Uganda, are similar to audited corporate financial statements. Survey data and national examination (UNEB) scores were also utilized. This research explored standard business financial analysis tools, including financial statement ratio analysis, and evaluated the applicability of each to this LDC educational environment. A model for financial assessment was developed and industry averages were calculated for private secondary schools in the Mukono District of Uganda. Industry averages can be used by individual schools as benchmarks in assessing their own financial health. Substantial deviations from the norms signal areas of potential concern. Schools may take appropriate corrective action, leading to sustainable fiscal viability. An example of such analysis is provided. Finally, school financial health, defined by eight financial measures, was compared with quality of education, defined by UNEB scores. Worldwide, much attention is given to education and its role in development. This research, with its model for financial assessment of private LDC schools, offers a new and pragmatic perspective.

The study is intended to identify relevant channels and possibly biasing factors with respect to fiscal multipliers, and thus to contribute to improving the precision of multiplier forecasts. This is done by, first, defining the concept of the multiplier used in the present study, presenting the main theoretical channels of influence as discussed in the literature and the problems of empirical identification. Second, by conducting a meta-regression analysis on the reported multipliers from a unique data set of 1069 multiplier observations and the respective study characteristics in order to derive quantitative stylzed facts. Third, by developing a simple multiplier model that explicitly takes into account the time elapse of the multiplier process as an explanatory factor that has been largely overlooked by the relevant theoretical literature. Fourth, by identifying, for US macroeconomic time series data, the extent to which fiscal multiplier estimates could be biased in the presence of financial cycles that have not been taken into account by the relevant empirical literature.

Thesis (M.S. in Management)--Naval Postgraduate School, December 1990.
Thesis Advisor: Doyle, Richard B. Second Reader: Moses, Doug. "December 1990." Description based on title screen as viewed on April 1, 2010. DTIC Identifier(s): Naval budgets, Naval procurement, Navy, public administration, defense buildup, Congress. Author(s) subject terms: DON procurements, Navy procurement budgeting, aircraft procurement, weapons procurement, shipbuilding and conversion procurement, procurement, Marine Corps. Includes bibliographical references (p. 53-54). Also available in print.

This research examines the horizontal and vertical equity of public school funding in the Commonwealth of Virginia from 2004 to 2018. This study analyzed and measured the horizontal and vertical equity funding allocations across each reporting division in the Commonwealth of Virginia from FY2004 to FY2018 in two-year increments reflective of the final year in each biennium where the local composite index (LCI) is calculated. Data were collected for the 132 reporting divisions in the Commonwealth of Virginia including funding amounts, student counts, categorical counts, and average daily membership. Weights were applied to specific groups within the study (i.e., economically disadvantaged students, special education students, and English language learners) in order to obtain vertical equity measures. The chosen measures of wealth neutrality and fiscal equity were range, restricted range, restricted range ratio, coefficient of variation, the Theil Index, the Pearson Correlation, regression, slope, elasticity, the Gini Coefficient, and the McLoone Index. At fixed intervals reflecting FY2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2018, the measures were used to analyze the selected data points for each district across the Commonwealth of Virginia with both unweighted and weighted values. The information from these analyses will help inform researchers and educational leaders about the current state of equity for divisions across the Commonwealth of Virginia. Furthermore, it will inform stakeholders about whether or not horizontal and vertical fiscal equity measures have increased or decreased in the selected fiscal years for the Commonwealth of Virginia.
Doctor of Education
This research examines the equity of public school funding in the Commonwealth of Virginia from 2004 to 2018 two different ways. First, the research measures equity where every student is mathematically identical, which is how funding currently works; this is called horizontal equity. The second measure of equity in this research applies mathematical weights of different amounts to students with different classifications that historically cost more to educate (i.e., economically disadvantaged students, special education students, and English language learners) (Berne and Stiefel, 1984; Verstegen and Knoeppel, 2012); this is referred to as vertical equity. This study analyzed and measured the horizontal and vertical equity funding allocations across each reporting division in the Commonwealth of Virginia from fiscal year 2004 to fiscal year 2018 in two-year increments. This is because every two years, the amount of funding a division receives is recalculated as is the division's ability to pay, also known as the local composite index (LCI). For the purposes of this study, the final year of each two-year cycle was analyzed. Data were collected for the 132 reporting divisions in the Commonwealth of Virginia including funding amounts, student counts, categorical counts, and average daily membership. Weights were applied to specific groups within the study (i.e., economically disadvantaged students, special education students, and English language learners) in order to obtain vertical equity measures. The chosen measures of wealth neutrality and fiscal equity were range, restricted range, restricted range ratio, coefficient of variation, the Theil Index, the Pearson Correlation, regression, slope, elasticity, the Gini Coefficient, and the McLoone Index. At fixed intervals reflecting FY2004, 2006, 2008, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2018, the measures were used to analyze the selected data points for each district across the Commonwealth of Virginia with both unweighted and weighted values. The information from these analyses will help inform researchers and educational leaders about the current state of equity for divisions across the Commonwealth of Virginia. Furthermore, it will inform stakeholders about whether or not horizontal and vertical fiscal equity measures have increased or decreased in the selected fiscal years for the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Bibliography: leaves 324-333.
The purpose of this dissertation is to analyse the definitional rules of fiscal jurisdiction as well as the tax consequences resulting from the application of these rules, as implemented in the national tax law of the chosen jurisdictions. In essence, there are two main rules, which give content to the chosen theory of fiscal jurisdiction, mainly source and residence. It is trite that globalisation of the world's economies poses certain problems for international tax policy. Companies and individuals are becoming more mobile and therefore are able to exploit tax differences between states. In consideration of the natural concern of governments that they should get an acceptable share of the profits generated by international businesses, this research study analyses the bases through which a country could claim the right to tax. The plasticity of these two key concepts (source and residence) may well subvert a country's ultimate tax objective because of the potential for exploitation of ambiguity in the search for effective avoidance. The residence tax system and its implications have been analysed mainly from the South African perspective, and where necessary, the analysis has sought reference in other jurisdictions such as the United Kingdom and the United States. The source principle of taxation and its effects have also been studied from the South African context, with a comparative approach from Hong Kong. It has been found that the countries considered in this research have, in various ways, adopted different combinations of subjective factors for tax liability in their domestic tax laws. At the same time, the relentless search of additional tax revenue, has led countries to implement in their tax laws, stringent anti-avoidance measures designed to prevent the deferral of tax, for instance on foreign source income. Factors such as the increasing complexity of modem business and the greater sophistication of tax planning techniques have contributed to this state of affairs. Thus, this dissertation highlights that competition between governments, in the face of international economic integrity, may lead countries to adopt tax rules, which though they follow the usual international standards, are nevertheless very complex in application and administration. This can maintain the problem of international double taxation and lead to excessive or unpredictable compliance burdens. It is shown how countries in the exercise of their fiscal jurisdiction can move towards harmonisation of rules and common interpretation of the tax base in the application of their national tax legislation.

The objectives of the study are to assess the fiscal sustainability and development impacts of Ghana’s fiscal rule for allocating petroleum revenues to the annual budget against alternative fiscal rules - the permanent income and the bird-in-hand rules. Fiscal sustainability is measured by government long-term fiscal space in proportion to non-oil GDP, whilst development impacts are measured through a dynamic CGE model of Ghana. Generally, the study makes four important findings on how fiscal policy triggered by the inflow of new petroleum revenues could affect the long-term fiscal sustainability and growth of the economy. One, Ghana’s fiscal rule is neither fiscally sustainable nor provide higher impacts of petroleum revenues on economic development relative to the permanent income and the bird-in-hand rules. Two, fiscal sustainability does not necessarily lead to greater development outcomes. The bird-in-hand rule is the most fiscally sustainable, but the permanent income rule provides higher development outcomes and can move Ghana’s transformation towards a full middle income status. Three, institutional quality in a country could lead to efficiency gains in government spending. Four, efficiency in government spending could improve on development outcomes. Ghana could therefore benefit from its petroleum revenues by adopting the permanent income rule; and with temporary petroleum revenues, the focus of the country should be on current investment of petroleum revenues in building the country’s asset base to support short-term and long-term growth of the economy. However, this should be complemented with strengthening the quality of institutional arrangements to enhance efficiency in government spending.

The purpose of this study was to develop an explanation for the volatile behavior of the Local Composite Index, Virginia's measure of public school division fiscal capacity. This study documented and analyzed the behavior of the mathematical and structural components of the current formula over the period inclusive of Biennia 1984-86 through 1996-98. It was implemented in five phases: 1. Literature Review. Literature related to public school division fiscal capacity was reviewed: a) To identify normative and procedural concepts important to the philosophical development of fiscal capacity. b) To delineate the various models used across the United States in the determination of public school fiscal capacity. c) To examine components of indices, their application, and criteria for evaluating their behavior. 2. Local Composite Index Review. Information was collected from various sources regarding the Local Composite Index and its components for all school divisions in the Commonwealth. 3. Database Development. A relational database was developed to facilitate exploratory trend analyses of the LCI and its components. 4. Analysis. An identification and analysis of three trends was selected, defined, and undertaken: a) Biennial Change Rate of the Indicators, Local and State b) Biennial Change Rate of the Standardized Indicators, Local and State c) Net Biennial Change Rate of the Local to State Ratio for the Standardized Indicators 5. Case Studies. Five case studies of public school divisions and the Commonwealth of Virginia were performed to provide an in-depth and quantitative analysis of the interaction of the various component trends of the Local Composite Index and their resultant effects. The study identified specific phenomena and their percentage contribution to the volatility of the Local Composite Index. The study found three interactive effects of the LCI ratio structure that contribute to its volatility: * The Ratio structure can enhance the LCI value. * The Ratio structure can dampen the LCI value. * The ratio structure allows for Synthetic Change within the Local or State Standardized Indicators, which stimulates unpredictable patterns of volatility.
Ph. D.

This dissertation examines local governments’ efforts to promote economic development in Latin America. The research uses a mixed method to explore how cities make decisions to innovate, develop, and finance economic development programs. First, this study provides a comparative analysis of decentralization policies in Argentina and Mexico as a means to gain a better understanding of the degree of autonomy exercised by local governments. Then, it analyzes three local governments each within the province of Santa Fe, Argentina and the State of Guanajuato, Mexico. The principal hypothesis of this dissertation is that if local governments collect more own-source tax revenue, they are more likely to promote economic development and thus, in turn, promote growth for their region. By examining six cities, three of which are in Santa Fe—Rosario, Santa Fe (capital) and Rafaela—and three in Guanajuato—Leon, Guanajuato (capital) and San Miguel de Allende, this dissertation provides a better understanding of public finances and tax collection efforts of local governments in Latin America. Specific attention is paid to each city’s budget authority to raise new revenue and efforts to promote economic development. The research also includes a large statistical dataset of Mexico’s 2,454 municipalities and a regression analysis that evaluates local tax efforts on economic growth, controlling for population, territorial size, and the professional development. In order to generalize these results, the research tests these discoveries by using statistical data gathered from a survey administered to Latin American municipal officials. The dissertation demonstrates that cities, which experience greater fiscal autonomy measured by the collection of more own-source revenue, are better able to stimulate effective economic development programs, and ultimately, create jobs within their communities. The results are bolstered by a large number of interviews, which were conducted with over 100 finance specialists, municipal presidents, and local authorities. The dissertation also includes an in-depth literature review on fiscal federalism, decentralization, debt financing and local development. It concludes with a discussion of the findings of the study and applications for the practice of public administration.

En tant qu'accroissement de la valeur d'une chose, la plus-value est une richesse nouvelle particulièrement convoitée lorsque sa production résulte du non­propriétaire de la chose. Résoudre le conflit entre le propriétaire de la chose et l'auteur de la plus-value suppose de la situer par rapport à la chose pour pouvoir définir sa maîtrise. L'étude répond à cette problématique en menant d'abord une analyse de la présence de la plus-value. La plus-value semble dans une situation ambivalente puisqu'elle apparaît attachée à la chose tout en lui étant distincte. Cette situation ambivalente de la plus-value devait être prise en compte pour la définir à partir d'une analyse civile et fiscale. La naissance d’une plus-value a également été examinée en procédant à une relecture systématique des facteurs qui la produisent. Sur cette base, l'ouvrage propose ensuite de déterminer les modalités de maîtrise de la plus-value. La dépendance de la plus-value envers la chose implique de l'appréhender par la médiation de la chose. Cette forme de maîtrise d'une plus-value n'est pas sans générer des difficultés puisqu'elle nécessite de saisir la chose. Sans autre examen, on aperçoit immédiatement que cette solution est susceptible d'enrichir le propriétaire du bien dont la chose bénéficie d'une plus-value produite par un tiers. Cette difficulté a été dépassée à partir d'une étude du rapport entre la plus-value et la monnaie, pour ensuite envisager l'existence d'une indemnité de plus-value au profit de son auteur
The capital gain is a new form of wealth, especially coveted when the production results from someone other than the owner of the object itself. To salve the conflict between the owner of the object and the originator of the capital gain one has to situate that capital gain in law to define its control. The study answers to this issue by firstly analyzing the presence of the capital gain. The capital gain has been identified as a distinct entity from the object, to which it is however attached. This ambivalent situation of the capital gain has to be considered when defining its consistence based on a civil and fiscal analysis. The origin of a capital gain has also been examined in proceeding with a systematic re-reading of its repository and the factors who produce it. Based on this, the following work proposes to determine the control of the capital gain. To understand the dependence of the capital gain towards the abject, you have to look at it through the mediation of the object. This form of contract of capital gain doesn't come without difficulties, since you have to grasp the object. Without other examination, we can immediately see that this solution might enrich the owner of the property, of which the abject benefits from a capital gain, produced by a third party. This difficulty was surpassed based on a study on the connection between the capital gain and monetary units. By considering the capital gain in the quantity of monetary units corresponding, it was proposed to control the capital gain in a monetary form. This particular way of control opens stimulating perspectives since it has then been indemnity of capital gain in favor of its originator

"Efforts to improve our school system must start with equity" (Department of Education's Equity and Excellence Commission, 2012). This study is a statistical analysis of the 2003-2012 Minnesota K-12 pubic school general education (foundation) formula in regard to fiscal equality and wealth neutrality. The analysis utilizes a longitudinal approach to compare the findings of previous equity studies to current relatable data as it pertains to the State of Minnesota. A number of modifications have been imposed on the original Minnesota funding formula over the past decade. This study tests the equity level of a selected number of revenue sources and reviews previous studies to determine how equity has or has not been improved as a result of the modifications.

Fiscal neutrality is described as the wealth of the school district and should be a function of the wealth of the state as a whole, not of the wealth of the local school district. This study analyzed the fiscal neutrality of 333 public school districts in Minnesota in terms of variance, permissible variance, coefficient of variation, and Gini Coefficient. The analysis was based upon three research questions: 1. Based on an analysis of the 2003 to 2012 general education formula, what were the fiscal equality and wealth neutrality characteristics of Minnesota's school districts? 2. Based on an examination of like data elements from the four major Minnesota fiscal equality and wealth neutrality studies, what trends can be observed? 3. Based on the recommendations of previous studies, what legislative impact did they have?

The findings of the research show that overall the disbursements of revenue through the Minnesota funding formula do meet the standards of wealth neutrality. However, there are categories of the formula that remain inequitable and the reliance of local taxpayers on the referendum revenue source has increased over the years studied.

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The objective of this thesis is to observe if a political business cycle is in effect on the Brazilian states. It also aims to observe how the institution of term limits, aligned with a resign-to-run law, is affecting the fiscal behavior of the states. It does so by testing two possible mechanisms trough, which term limits may be acting: reelections and resignations. The results suggest that there is a political fiscal cycle happening on the state level, with an increase in expenditures before elections followed by a steep decline afterwards. Term limitation also perform an important role in this cycle, with states experiencing lower expenditures when an incumbent faces a limit. A more detailed analysis of the phenomenon showed that this difference was not the result of an increase in expenditures for non-limited incumbents driven by the possibility of reelection, but by a decrease in expenditures for limited incumbents driven by an increase in resignations. This study strengthen the literature on sub-national political cycles by showing that those cycles are still present at the Brazillian state level. It also explores an alternative and yet understudied mechanism through which term limits affects fiscal behavior (in conjoint with a resign-to-run law), resignations. In doing so, this study highlights the importance of mechanism analysis when observing the fiscal effects of different institutions.

After many decades, macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy have returned to the centre of the economic policy debate. Both automatic fiscal stabilizers and discretionary fiscal stimuli have been used to support aggregate demand during the recent global economic crisis with a subsequent need for large-scale fiscal consolidations. In this context, a proper assessment of the size of automatic fiscal stabilizers and fiscal multipliers represents a key input for fiscal policymaking. This dissertation provides a quantitative analysis of the interactions between fiscal policy and real economy in the Czech Republic. The impact of real economy developments on public finances is assessed based on the methods of the OECD, the European Commission and the ESCB for the identification of general government structural balances, i.e. balances adjusted for effects of the economic cycle and net of one-off and other temporary transactions. I find that the underlying fiscal position, as approximated by the government structural balance, was mostly below the level stabilising the debt-to-GDP ratio since mid-1990s. An indistinct improvement in the structural balance can be identified in the period 2004--2007, which was subsequently reversed by the adverse structural impact of the world economic crisis. At the same time, dynamics of unadjusted fiscal balance was largely determined by one-off transactions in the past. The effects of fiscal policy on real economy are analysed using the structural VAR approach. I find that an increase in government spending has a temporary positive effect on output that peaks after one to two years with a multiplier of around 0.6. Tax multiplier appears to be small and, in contrast to standard Keynesian assumptions, positive. Government spending is supportive to private consumption, contradicting the hypothesis of Ricardian equivalence, but it crowds out private investment in the short run. The results should be interpreted with caution, as the analysis is complicated by rapidly changing economic environment in the period of the economic transition, relatively short available time series and a large number of one-off fiscal transactions.

Cette thèse s’intéresse d’une part aux effets macroéconomiques des régimes de change, et d’autre part, aux récentes évolutions sur la politique budgétaire et la décentralisation. La partie I met essentiellement l’accent sur l’interaction entre les régimes de change (RC) et la politique budgétaire, monétaire et fiscale. Tout d’abord, nous mettons en évidence que les RC peuvent avoir un effet stabilisateur sur la politique budgétaire (chapitre 1). Cependant, cet effet stabilisateur des RC n’est pas automatique mais dépendrait plutôt des conséquences d’une politique budgétaire laxiste. Le chapitre 2 s’intéresse quant à lui à la causalité entre RC et crises (bancaire/financière, de change et de dette) et remet en cause la vision bipolaire qui prétendait que les RC intermédiaires sont plus vulnérables aux crises que les solutions en coin (RC fixes/flexibles). Il ressort de notre analyse que les fondamentaux macroéconomiques (la volatilité du crédit au secteur privé, le financement du déficit, et le ratio dette sur PIB) jouent un rôle considérable. Le chapitre 3 met en évidence un lien entre les RC et la politique fiscale. Les pays à RC fixes montrent une plus grande dépendance aux recettes domestiques –telles que la TVA-, comparativement aux pays en change intermédiaires/flexibles pour compenser les pertes de recettes de seigneuriage (effet de substitution). De plus, ces pays avec RC fixes collectent plus de recettes domestiques en compensation de la perte de recettes douanières, suite à la libéralisation commerciale (effet de compétitivité). Dans les trois derniers chapitres (partie II), nous mettons le focus sur la politique budgétaire et les effets de la décentralisation. Le chapitre 4 révèle une relation non-linéaire entre la politique budgétaire et le cycle économique, qui dépend du niveau de la dette publique. Lorsque celle-ci dépasse un certain seuil (87%), la politique budgétaire perd toute propriété contra-cyclique. Nous montrons par ailleurs que l’effet disciplinaire ex-ante des règles budgétaires aide à restaurer la contra-cyclicité de la politique budgétaire. A travers le chapitre 5, nous montrons que la décentralisation budgétaire, dans un cadre politico-institutionnel sein et dépourvu de corruption, améliore l’offre de biens et services publics. Le chapitre 6 conclut que la décentralisation impacte positivement le solde structurel. Cependant une asymétrie entre la décentralisation des dépenses et celle des recettes accroit la dépendance des gouvernements locaux vis-à-vis du gouvernement central en termes de transferts, et amoindrirait considérablement à l’effet positif de la décentralisation
This thesis explored, in two parts, the macroeconomic impacts of exchange rate regimes (ERR), as well as the recent developments in fiscal policy and fiscal decentralization. Part I has reconsidered the role of ERR and its interplay with fiscal, monetary and tax policy. The first result that emerges (Chapter 1) is that fixed ERR can serve as a credible policy tool for stabilizing fiscal policy. However, this stabilizing effect is conditional upon the inter-temporal distribution of the costs of loose fiscal policy. In assessing the linkage between ERR and crises (banking/financial, currency and debt), Chapter 2 evidenced that the bipolar view is no longer valid, and that, crisis proneness rather depends on the macroeconomic fundamentals (the volatility of private sector credit, the deficit-financing mechanism, and the debt-to-GDP ratio). In Chapter 3, we unveiled a strong relationship between ERR and tax policy. Countries with pegged regimes have greater reliance on domestic taxation -such as the VAT- to make up for the loss of seigniorage revenue (substitution effect). Moreover, peggers tend to collect more VAT revenue to offset the shortfall in cross border taxes following the trade liberalization reform (competitiveness effect). Part II discussed the cyclical response of fiscal policy in high debt periods, and focused on fiscal decentralization issues. In Chapter 4, we showed that the reaction of fiscal policy to the business cycle is non-linear and conditional to the level of public debt. When the debt-to-GDP ratio goes beyond a certain threshold (87%), fiscal policy loses its counter-cyclical properties. Further, we highlighted that carefully-designed fiscal rules help maintaining counter-cyclicality through an ex ante disciplinary effect. Chapters 5 and 6 analyzed the impact of fiscal decentralization on the efficiency of public service delivery and fiscal policy performance, respectively. Chapter 5 revealed that a sufficient level of expenditure decentralization, coupled with revenue decentralization, improves the efficiency of public service delivery. However, the political and institutional environment is critical for reaping decentralization-led benefits. Lastly, Chapter 6 concluded that fiscal decentralization has destabilizing effect by reducing the counter-cyclicality of fiscal policy. In addition, we found that decentralization strengthens the structural fiscal balance; however, vertical fiscal imbalances reduce the benefits of decentralization. It is therefore critical to limit asymmetries between expenditure and revenue decentralization, so as to reduce the transfer-dependency of local governments to the central level, and thus prevent decentralization from weakening the fiscal stance at the general government level

nÃo hÃ
The purpose of this study is to analyze the existence of the flypaper effect in the municipalities of CearÃ, for the year 2000. For this purpose, it was used the threshold model that through the construction of groups, divided the sample into 03 groups of municipalities, for each of the two variables used as threshold: salary and political strength. From the results obtained, concluded that there are groups that were not detected flypaper effect, but in most municipalities of Cearà this effect exists and is the result of distortions of intergovernmental transfers, which requires, among other aspects, a biggest fiscal effort of the municipalities and an expansion of fiscal decentralization started at Brazilian Constitution of 1988, aiming to mitigate flypaper.
PropÃe-se analisar a existÃncia do efeito flypaper nos municÃpios cearenses, para o ano de 2000. Para esse objetivo, utilizou-se do modelo threshold que, mediante o estabelecimento de grupos, dividiu a amostra em trÃs conjuntos de municÃpios, para cada uma das duas variÃveis utilizadas como threshold: salÃrio e forÃa polÃtica. Com base nos resultados, concluiu-se que hà grupos em que nÃo foi detectado efeito flypaper, mas, na maioria dos municÃpios cearenses, esse efeito existe e resulta das distorÃÃes das transferÃncias intergovernamentais, o que requer, dentre outros aspectos, um esforÃo fiscal maior dos municÃpios e uma expansÃo da descentralizaÃÃo fiscal iniciada na ConstituiÃÃo Brasileira de 1988, visando mitigar o flypaper.

This thesis explores the theory and practice of incorporating a financial perspective into land use planning. Although it is well known that land use changes have definite consequences on municipal finances, there is little empirical information to guide municipal planners in analyzing and understanding the fiscal consequences of their decisions. In this thesis the role of municipal expenditure-revenue analysis in land use planning is analyzed. Municipal expenditure-revenue analysis represents a methodology used to quantify the net cost to a municipal government of providing services to specified land use categories. The nature and historical development of municipal expenditure-revenue analysis is described, and criteria for the evaluation of such analyses are developed. On the basis of these criteria, three municipal expenditure-revenue studies, undertaken in metropolitan Vancouver, are analyzed and evaluated in order to highlight current field practice and key issues in this area of analysis. The evaluation of the three case studies illustrates that despite considerable efforts on behalf of the analysts involved, the results of the studies have little direct application in planning and policy formulation. All three studies were found to have shortcomings which place in question the reliability and validity of the results. Despite these shortcomings, it is concluded that the process of undertaking expenditure-revenue analysis is valuable in that it provides an explicit framework in which planners and other municipal officials can consider the financial implications of land use decisions. On the basis of the analysis and evaluation undertaken in this thesis five recommendations are developed which will help analysts to improve the reliability of both the process and results of future expenditure-revenue analysis. This, in turn, will increase the potential of the direct application of these studies' results in planning and policy formulation. The recommendations made in the concluding chapter of this thesis are listed below: (1 ) Municipal expenditure-revenue analysis should be undertaken under objective circumstances; (2) The resources available to municipal expenditure-revenue studies should allow a thorough and in-depth analysis of the expenditure and revenue associated with the specified land use categories;' (3) The study methodology should combine the range of approaches discussed in Chapter 2 of this thesis; (4) Municipal expenditure-revenue analysis should be computerized; and (5) All aspects of an expenditure-revenue analysis should be clearly documented.
Applied Science, Faculty of
Community and Regional Planning (SCARP), School of
Graduate

The object of this dissertation is the evaluation of the effectiveness of fiscal policy as stabilizing tools in the Baltic countries. The aim of the research is to evaluate the effects of tax and fiscal policies on such Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian macroeconomic variables as gross domestic product, employment, foreign direct investment and interest rates. Structural Vector Auto Regressive mode (SVAR) has been employed for the analysis. Results of the research suggest that tax shocks may have different effects in different countries: labour tax increases adversely affect output and employment in all economies. It is only Lithuania where indirect tax increases negatively affect output while in Latvia and Estonia indirect tax shocks effects are positive. Persistent results of the negative corporate income tax effects on macroeconomic variables were obtained only in Lithuania as well, results in Latvia and Estonia vary depending on the SVAR variable composition. The results show that the increase in government spending leads to GDP, employment and foreign direct investment decline in Estonia and Lithuania, while in Latvia the negative impact is less significant. On the other hand, public investment has a positive impact on macroeconomic variables in all three economies. Interest rates are relatively insensitive to fiscal shocks in all Baltic countries, and this may be explained by the high degree of economic openness and dependence on global market fluctuations.
Disertacijoje tiriama fiskalinės politikos įtaka Lietuvos, Latvijos ir Estijos makroekonominiam stabilumui. Disertacijos tikslas – nustatyti Baltijos šalių mokesčių ir fiskalinės politikos įtaką ekonominiams procesams ir kiekybiškai įvertinti fiskalinės politikos priemonių poveikį makroekonominiams rodikliams. Šiame darbe buvo tirti svarbiausių fiskalinės politikos priemonių – pagrindinių mokesčių, valdžios sektoriaus investicijų ir visų išlaidų poveikis BVP, užimtiesiems, investicijoms ir palūkanų normoms. Pasitelkus vieną populiariausių fiskalinės politikos efektams tirti taikomų metodų – struktūrinius vektorinius autoregresinius modelius (SVAR) – buvo prieita prie tokių išvadų: skirtingų mokesčių šokai nevienodai veikia Baltijos šalių makroekonominius rodiklius. Darbo mokesčių didinimas neigiamai veikia BVP ir užimtumą visose ekonomikose; bet netiesioginių mokesčių didinimas teigiamai veikia BVP Latvijoje ir Estijoje, ir tik Lietuvoje poveikis yra neigiamas. Tik Lietuvoje buvo gauti stabilūs rezultatai apie neigiamą pelno mokesčių poveikį ekonomikai. Latvijoje ir Estijoje poveikio efektai varijuoja priklausomai nuo SVAR modelio kintamųjų sudėties. Rezultatai rodo, kad valdžios sektoriaus išlaidų didinimas lemia BVP, užimtumo ir tiesioginių investicijų mažėjimą Lietuvoje ir Estijoje. Latvijoje neigiama poveikio įtaka yra mažiau reikšminga. Kita vertus, valdžios sektoriaus investicijos turi teigiamą poveikį ekonomikos procesams visose trijose ekonomikose. Palūkanų normos... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]

CoordenaÃÃo de AperfeiÃoamento de Pessoal de NÃvel Superior
This research aims to develop a computable general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents restricted (p-type) and not restricted to credit (q-type) for policy analysis. We used data from the National Accounts (IBGE), PNAD (2009), IPEADATA, to calibrate the model according to the Brazilian economy in 2009. According to the model 11:31% of agents (p-type) generate 0:65% of the total income and are responsible for paying 0:66% of the total tax burden. While other agents (q-type) generate 99:35% of income accounting for 99:34% of the payment of the tax burden. In terms of importance of sources of income, while for p-type income transfers correspond to 55% of labor income for agents of q-type these account for only 16%, which leads to dierent choices of work and leisure between these two types of agents.
O presente trabalho tem como objetivo desenvolver um modelo de equilbrio geral comput avel com agentes heterog^eneos restritos (tipo p) e n~ao restritos ao credito (tipo q) para ns de analise de poltica. Utilizou-se dados das Contas Nacionais (IBGE), PNAD (2009), IPEADATA, para calibrar o modelo segundo a economia brasileira no ano de 2009. De acordo com o modelo, 11; 31% dos agentes (tipo p) geram 0; 65% do total da renda e s~ao responsaveis por pagar 0; 66% da carga total tributaria. Enquanto que os demais agentes (tipo q) geram 99; 35% da renda sendo responsaveis por 99; 34% do pagamento da carga tributaria. Em termos de import^ancia das fontes de rendimentos, enquanto para o tipo p rendas de transfer^encias correspondem a 55% da renda do trabalho, para agentes do tipo q estas correspondem a apenas 16%, o que provoca escolhas distintas de trabalho e lazer entre esses dois tipos de agentes.

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A busca pela eficiência é considerada um ideal para a administração moderna, seja ela pública ou privada. Fazer mais com menos se torna imperativo principalmente nos tempos de crise. Sabe-se que a municipalidade possui papel preponderante no que concerne as relações Estado X Sociedade, em especial no que diz respeito à gestão pública e otimização dos recursos disponíveis. O presente trabalho tem como objetivo avaliar a eficiência fiscal dos municípios da Região Metropolitana de João Pessoa - PB. Em termos metodológicos, quanto a natureza classifica-se em pesquisa aplicada, quanto aos objetivos em descritiva e exploratória, quanto aos procedimentos bibliográfica ex-post facto e quanto a abordagem do problema é de natureza quali-quantitativa. Foram investigados os 12 municípios da Região Metropolitana de João Pessoa no ano de 2015, em razão da importância regional e da disponibilidade de dados, sendo coletadas informações acerca de 20 indicadores referenciados pela literatura. Em função da indisponibilidade de alguns dados, foram imputados 7 variáveis de um total 198. Foi elaborando um ranking dos municípios utilizando-se do método PROMETHEE II. Como resultado, identificou-se que os municípios melhores colocados foram os de maior PIB per capita, a exceção do município de Caaporã, carecendo de uma maior investigação este fenômeno. O estudo explicita a necessidade do acompanhamento sistemático das gestões públicas e de suas ações através dos indicadores, como forma de se alcançar uma gestão fiscal eficiente.
The search for efficiency is considered an ideal for modern administration, be it public or private. Doing more with less becomes imperative especially in times of economic crisis. It is also known that the municipality has leading role regarding the relationship State X Society, particularly with regard to public management and optimization of available resources. This study aims to evaluate the tax efficiency of the Metropolitan Region of João Pessoa- PB. In methodological terms, the nature is classified in applied research, as the objectives in descriptive and exploratory, as the literature ex-post facto procedures and how to approach the problem is quali-quantitative nature. We investigated the 12 municipalities in the metropolitan region of João Pessoa in 2015, due to the regional importance and availability of data, collected information about 20 indicators referenced in the literature. Due to the unavailability of some data were imputed 7 variables of a total 198. It was developing a ranking of municipalities using the PROMETHEE II method. As a result, it was found that the best placed municipalities had the highest GDP per capita, except for the municipality of Caaporã, lacking further research this phenomenon. The study explains the need for systematic monitoring of public administrations and their actions through the indicators, in order to achieve an efficient fiscal management.

This study examines the use of principal component techniques in analysing term structures of interest rates. It employs original methods of estimating B-Spline models with endogenous knot positions and applies the method of Dierckx (1981) to generate new data sets for the study. The variability of the knots suggests that natural market boundaries do not exist in the UK gilts market. Few, if any, of the previous studies of term structures using principal components have subjected the components to statistical testing. This is remedied in this thesis. The results suggest that only two components, a level and a slope component, are required to describe most of the variability in the term structures irrespective of the data used, but these components are not stable over time. The thesis extends the method to include partial common principal components, and using this method demonstrated the difference in the major components of selected data sets. The thesis found that changes in the principal component scores could not be accounted for by regularly published economic news, including news about the PSBR. A macromodel was estimated. This showed that the term structures in the sample were altered by changes in government spending but the movement in interest rates would depend upon how this was funded and what maturity of interest rates was studied. The model also showed that significant changes would take a long time to manifest themselves and that there was evidence that some forms of funding had unstable effects. These results provide an explanation of why news effects are difficult to discern and why there is no consensus on whether or not fiscal variables affect the term structure.

Includes bibliographies.
This paper explores possible future policy options for a democratically elected South African government as regards private schools. The paper establishes the context of contemporary and historical state policy for private schools in South Africa in combination with a comparative international perspective, a summary of arguments in the literature for and against private schools, and principles identified by a recent (non-governmental) policy investigation into education in South Africa (NEPI) as encapsulating the demands of the democratic movement concerning education. These principles therefore serve as evaluative criteria for the examination of future fiscal and regulatory policy for private schools in South Africa. It will be shown that, as compared to many countries, private schools in South Africa are moderately regulated and receive only moderate financial assistance. However, the historical (and current social and political) context of state policy for private schools will be shown to be one of increasing state support since the early 1980s. It will be argued that this increased level of ideological and fiscal support for private schools in the past decade is a consequence of the government's reformist strategy, and its identification with the politics of 'New Right' parties, which dominated Britain and the USA in particular during the 1980s. It will also be demonstrated that changes in state policy have resulted in large-scale growth in the private schooling sector over the past decade. It is against this background that the lens of democratic principles and fiscal implications will be used to focus on possible future policies for private schooling in South Africa.

Thesis (M.S. in Financial Management) Naval Postgraduate School, December 1993.
Thesis advisor(s): San Miguel, Joseph ; Seiden, Neil. "December 1993." Includes bibliographical references (p. 143-144). Also available online.

A pesquisa sobre observância tributária floresceu no campo econômico, tendo como estudos seminais as obras de Allingham e Sandmo (1972) e Srinivasan (1973). Esses artigos basearam-se na teoria de Becker (1968) sobre crime e punição, aceitando o paradigma econômico clássico, que parte do pressuposto de que os indivíduos adotam comportamentos racionais. Nas últimas décadas, contudo, muitos pesquisadores notaram que esse paradigma, do qual derivou aquilo que veio a ser chamado pela academia de \"paradigma do crime\", explicava apenas parcialmente o comportamento do contribuinte. Surge, então, toda uma linha de pesquisa contrapondo esse paradigma racional, partindo da constatação de que o comportamento do contribuinte é muito mais complexo do que inicialmente se supunha, merecendo uma análise multidisciplinar, ou seja, que não se restrinja ao campo econômico, mas que também abarque outras disciplinas. Esse novo paradigma foi denominado pela academia de \"paradigma do serviço\" que, em linhas gerais, contempla outros fatores envolvidos no ato de pagar tributos, inclusive psicológicos, pressupondo, de tal modo, que o contribuinte não é um indivíduo racional unicamente preocupado em maximizar sua utilidade, devendo ser visto pela administração pública como uma espécie de cliente, e recebendo tratamento adequado e serviços públicos de qualidade em contrapartida ao cumprimento de suas obrigações tributárias. O presente estudo faz uma apreciação dos dois paradigmas, introduzindo nessa avaliação conceitos da ciência denominada Análise do Comportamento, cujos ensinamentos sobre a aprendizagem e o comportamento humano têm o potencial de contribuir de forma significativa para o entendimento do assunto. Testando os pressupostos teóricos apresentados no decorrer do trabalho, foram realizados dois estudos empíricos, tomando-se como base o modelo criado pelo pesquisador e psicólogo Erich Kirchler, denominado Slippery Slope Framework, que confirma estudos anteriores e demonstra que tanto punições quanto recompensas são instrumentos eficazes no combate à evasão fiscal, sugerindo que a integração dos paradigmas \"do crime\" e \"do serviço\", bem como a inserção dos princípios da Análise do Comportamento nesta análise é um caminho promissor no combate à evasão fiscal.
Research on tax compliance has arisen in the economic field with seminal studies based upon the works of Allingham and Sandmo (1972) and Srinivasan (1973). Such articles were based on Becker\'s theory (1968) on crime and punishment, accepting the classic economic paradigm, which presupposes that individuals show rational behaviors. Nevertheless, in the past decades, many researchers have noticed that such paradigm, which gave rise to what is referred to, by the academy, as \"crime paradigm\", explained the behavior of taxpayers solely in part, and an entire line of research opposing such rational paradigm arose, based upon the verification that the behavior of taxpayers is much more complex than what was originally presumed, deserving a multidisciplinary analysis, i.e., not restricted to the economic field, but that, further, encompasses other subjects. Such new paradigm was designated by the academy as \"service paradigm\" that, in general, contemplates other factors involved in the act of paying taxes, including psychological factors, thus presupposing that taxpayers are not rational individuals solely concerned about maximizing the function thereof, they should be deemed, by the public administration, to be clients, and should receive appropriate treatment and quality public services in return for complying with their tax obligations. This study analyzes two paradigms, introducing in such analysis concepts of the science called Behavior Analysis, the teachings on learning and human behavior of which have potential to significantly contribute to better understanding the subject. Testing the theoretical assumptions presented throughout the study, two empirical analyses were conducted, based upon the model created by researcher and psychologist Erich Kirchler, referred to as Slippery Slope Model, which confirms previous studies and indicates that both punishment and reward are effective tools to fight against tax evasion, suggesting that integrating \"crime\" and \"service\" paradigms and inserting concepts of the Behavior Analysis Science in this analysis is highly promising to fight against tax evasion.