Dissertations / Theses: 'Flood frequency analysis'

1

Sahin, Mehmet Altug. "Regional Flood Frequency Analysis For Ceyhan Basin." Master's thesis, METU, 2013. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12615439/index.pdf.

Full text

Abstract:

Regional flood frequency techniques are commonly used to estimate flood quantiles when flood data are unavailable or the record length at an individual gauging station is insufficient for reliable analyses. These methods compensate for limited or unavailable data by pooling data from nearby gauged sites. This requires the delineation of hydrologically homogeneous regions in which the flood regime is sufficiently similar to allow the spatial transfer of information. Therefore, several Regional Flood Frequency Analysis (RFFA) methods are applied to the Ceyhan Basin. Dalyrmple (1960) Method is applied as a common RFFA method used in Turkey. Multivariate statistical techniques which are Stepwise and Nonlinear Regression Analysis are also applied to flood statistics and basin characteristics for gauging stations. Rainfall, Perimeter, Length of Main River, Circularity, Relative Relief, Basin Relief, Hmax, Hmin, Hmean and H&Delta
are the simple additional basin characteristics. Moreover, before the analysis started, stations are clustered according to their basin characteristics by using the combination of Ward&rsquo
s and k-means clustering techniques. At the end of the study, the results are compared considering the Root Mean Squared Errors, Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency Index and % difference of results. Using additional basin characteristics and making an analysis with multivariate statistical techniques have positive effect for getting accurate results compared to Dalyrmple (1960) Method in Ceyhan Basin. Clustered region data give more accurate results than non-clustered region data. Comparison between clustered region and non-clustered region Q100/Q2.33 reduced variate values for whole region is 3.53, for cluster-2 it is 3.43 and for cluster-3 it is 3.65. This show that clustering has positive effect in the results. Nonlinear Regression Analysis with three clusters give less errors which are 29.54 RMSE and 0.735 Nash-Sutcliffe Index, when compared to other methods in Ceyhan Basin.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

2

Labatiuk, Charles W. "A nonparametric approach to flood frequency analysis." Thesis, University of Ottawa (Canada), 1985. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/5000.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

3

Gingras, Denis. "Regional flood frequency analysis by nonparametric methods." Thesis, University of Ottawa (Canada), 1992. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/7879.

Full text

Abstract:

Parametric methods, currently used in regional flood frequency analysis, have numerous drawbacks and limitations, especially with regard to flood distribution selection and regional relationship form. Alternative approaches involving nonparametric methods are investigated in this thesis on a set of New Brunswick annual maximum floods. Nonparametric methods were employed at the three steps of regional analysis: at-site flood frequency analysis, homogeneous region delineation and regional relationship development. Nonparametric flood frequency analysis indicated that an annual maximum flood data set from New Brunswick contained some unimodal distributions along with many mixed distributions of bimodal and heavy-tailed shapes. A simulation study showed that sampling variability from a unimodal distribution could not account for the bimodality in nonparametric frequency analysis, confirming the existence of mixed distributions. L-moment analysis, a parametric method, confirmed that the entire set of floods from New Brunswick could not be appropriately described by a unimodal distribution. In this study, a new method is proposed for the purpose of homogeneous region delineation which effectively combines geographical considerations and flood data characteristics. The technique is based on the grouping of stations with similar density function shape, which reflect similar flood generating mechanisms. In New Brunswick, flood densities of three different shapes were grouped on a geographical basis to delineate homogeneous regions. Statistical tests based on L-moment analysis confirmed that the stations within a homogeneous bimodal region came from the same distribution. But L-moment analysis would propose either the Generalized Logistic or the Generalized Extreme Value as the regional distribution. Nonparametric frequency analysis revealed, however, that the floods within that region actually came from a mixed distribution. Nonparametric regression was employed for regional relationship development in New Brunswick; however, no significant improvement over the parametric approach of linear regression resulted. Using bootstrapping of pairs, a new method to compute the confidence interval at the center of a nonparametric regression was investigated. A comparison of linear and nonparametric regression confidence intervals can assist in evaluating the appropriateness of a linear model, and thus the need to employ nonparametric regression. Nonparametric regression was shown to be useful in screening irrational relationships that could be developed with the parametric approach. A new regional analysis methodology, involving nonparametric methods at the three steps of regional analysis, is proposed in this study, resulting in improved homogeneous region delineation, in more accurate at-site quantile estimates, and more realistic regional relationships.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

4

Xu, Ben Xiaohui. "Regional flood frequency analysis for southwestern Alberta." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1999. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape9/PQDD_0019/MQ48072.pdf.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

5

Ahmad, Muhammad Idrees. "Applications of statistics in flood frequency analysis." Thesis, University of St Andrews, 1989. http://hdl.handle.net/10023/2666.

Full text

Abstract:

Estimation of the probability of occurrence of future flood events at one or more locations across a river system is frequently required for the design of bridges, culverts, spillways, dams and other engineering works. This study investigates some of the statistical aspects for estimating the flood frequency distribution at a single site and on regional basis. It is demonstrated that generalized logistic (GL) distribution has many properties well suited for the modelling of flood frequency data. The GL distribution performs better than the other commonly recommended flood frequency distributions in terms of several key properties. Specifically, it is capable of reproducing almost the same degree of skewness typically present in observed flood data. It appears to be more robust to the presence of extreme outliers in the upper tail of the distribution. It has a relatively simpler mathematical form. Thus all the well known methods of parameter estimation can be easily implemented. It is shown that the method of probability weighted moments (PWM) using the conventionally recommended plotting position substantially effects the estimation of the shape parameter of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution by relocating the annual maximum flood series. A location invariant plotting position is introduced to use in estimating, by the method of PWM, the parameters of the GEV and the GL distributions. Tests based on empirical distribution function (EDF) statistics are proposed to assess the goodness of fit of the flood frequency distributions. A modified EDF test is derived that gives greater emphasis to the upper tail of a distribution which is more important for flood frequency prediction. Significance points are derived for the GEV and GL distributions when the parameters are to be estimated from the sample data by the method of PWMs. The critical points are considerably smaller than for the case where the parameters of a distribution are assumed to be specified. Approximate formulae over the whole range of the distribution for these tests are also developed which can be used for regional assessment of GEV and GL models based on all the annual maximum series simultaneously in a hydrological region. In order to pool at-site flood data across a region into a single series for regional analysis, the effect of standardization by at-site mean on the estimation of the regional shape parameter of the GEV distribution is examined. Our simulation study based on various synthetic regions reveals that the standardization by the at-site mean underestimates the shape parameter of the GEV by about 30% of its true value and also contributes to the separation of skewness of observed and simulated floods. A two parameter standardization by the at-site estimates of location and scale parameters is proposed. It does not distort the shape of the flood frequency data in the pooling process. Therefore, it offers significantly improved estimate of the shape parameter, allows pooling data with heterogeneous coefficients of variation and helps to explain the separation of skewness effect. Regions on the basis of flood statistics L-CV and USKEW are derived for Scotland and North England. Only about 50% of the basins could be correctly identified as belonging to these regions by a set of seven catchment characteristics. The alternative approach of grouping basins solely on the basis of physical properties is preferable. Six physically homogeneous groups of basins are identified by WARD's multivariate clustering algorithm using the same seven characteristics. These regions have hydrological homogeneity in addition to their physical homogeneity. Dimensionless regional flood frequency curves are produced by fitting GEV and GL distributions for each region. The GEV regional growth curves imply a larger return period for a given magnitude flood. When floods are described by GL model the respective return periods are considerably smaller.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

6

Wiltshire, S. E. "Statistical techniques for regional flood-frequency analysis." Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 1987. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.378267.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

7

Silva, Sallet Dayane. "Regional flood frequency analysis: evaluation of the design flood for 5 Brazilian dams." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2019. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/18856/.

Full text

Abstract:

Engineers in the water resources field frequently have to estimate the probability of exceedance related to a determined flow value at a chosen river cross-section, also known as flood quantile. This estimation is necessary in order to proceed with the design of different structures, such as dam spillways, and for other functions, such as risk management. The accurate estimation of the flood quantile of interest is not an easy task, as return periods of interest usually require a data record that exceeds the length of the available gauging record at the site of concern. In order to accurately estimate flood quantiles at a given river cross-section, the regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) is often used, allowing to compensate the lack of data by gathering information from other gauging stations which are supposed to be similar to the target station. The present Thesis deals with the evaluation of the 1,000-year flood quantile for five Brazilian dams based on a RFFA. The five studied dams are: Cachoeira Dourada, Ponte Alta do Bom Jesus, Quatiara, Poxoréo and Volta Grande. An index-flood method is applied as a usual approach in RFFA. The Region of Influence approach is then considered in order to define a homogeneous pooling-group of sites for a given target site. Overall, 79 gauging stations are examined for the evaluation of the 1,000-year flood quantile.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

8

Tanaka, Tomohiro. "Extreme flood frequency analysis and flood risk curve development considering spatiotemporal rainfall variability." 京都大学 (Kyoto University), 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/217150.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

9

Wang, Cheng. "A joint probability approach for the confluence flood frequency analysis." [Ames, Iowa : Iowa State University], 2007.

Find full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

10

Harden, Tessa M. "Late-Holocene Flood History, Flood-Frequency, and Paleoclimate Analysis of the Central Black Hills, South Dakota." PDXScholar, 2012. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/684.

Full text

Abstract:

Stratigraphic records in four basins in the central Black Hills in combination with hydraulic calculations show that all basins have experienced multiple large floods in the last 2,000 years with flow rates substantially larger than those gaged historically. Flood-frequency analyses for the study reaches account for 29 paleofloods inferred from interpretation of stratigraphic records locally extending back 1,000 to almost 2,000 years. The addition of paleoflood data to the gaged and historical data significantly reduced uncertainties related to flood-frequency. For all study reaches the 95-percent confidence intervals about the low-probability quantile estimates (100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence-intervals) were reduced by at least 78 percent relative to those for the gaged records only. In some cases, 95-percent uncertainty intervals were reduced by 99 percent or more. Additionally, a stratigraphic record of 35 large paleofloods and four large historical floods during the last 2,000 years (including several floods not used in the frequency analyses due to age constraints) reveal four flooding episodes at A.D.: 130-40, 640-670, 900-1290, and 1410 to present. During the Medieval Climate Anomaly (~A.D. 900-1300) the Black Hills experienced 13 large floods compared to nine large floods in the previous 800 years. This high concentration of large flooding events were likely caused by: 1) instability of air masses caused by stronger than normal westerlies; 2) larger or more frequent hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean; and/or 3) reduced land covering vegetation and an increase in forest fires caused by the severe drought. By examining the response of streamflow to the MCA, it seems likely that if severe long-term drought conditions persist for the Black Hills region, an increase in the frequency and magnitude of large floods can be expected. The Black Hills paleofloods represent some of the largest known floods, relative to drainage area, for the United States. Many of the other largest known United States floods are in areas with physiographic and climatologic conditions broadly similar to the Black Hills--semi-arid and rugged landscapes that intercept and focus heavy precipitation from convective storm systems.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

11

Alila, Younes. "Nonparametric flood frequency analysis with historic information and hydroclimatically defined mixed distributions." Thesis, University of Ottawa (Canada), 1988. http://hdl.handle.net/10393/5117.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

12

Taylor, Kenneth Gordon. "Peak-over-threshold flood frequency analysis of streamflow series for insular Newfoundland." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 2000. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk1/tape3/PQDD_0033/MQ62434.pdf.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

13

Taylor, Kenneth Gordon. "Peak-over-threshold flood frequency analysis of streamflow series for insular Newfoundland /." Internet access available to MUN users only, 2001. http://collections.mun.ca/u?/theses,39871.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

14

Pokhrel, Jhapendra. "Regional flood frequency analysis for the island of Newfoundland, Canada using L-moments /." Internet access available to MUN users only, 2002. http://collections.mun.ca/u?/theses,47709.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

15

Guse, Björn Felix. "Improving flood frequency analysis by integration of empirical and probabilistic regional envelope curves." Phd thesis, Universität Potsdam, 2010. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2010/4926/.

Full text

Abstract:

Flood design necessitates discharge estimates for large recurrence intervals. However, in a flood frequency analysis, the uncertainty of discharge estimates increases with higher recurrence intervals, particularly due to the small number of available flood data. Furthermore, traditional distribution functions increase unlimitedly without consideration of an upper bound discharge. Hence, additional information needs to be considered which is representative for high recurrence intervals. Envelope curves which bound the maximum observed discharges of a region are an adequate regionalisation method to provide additional spatial information for the upper tail of a distribution function. Probabilistic regional envelope curves (PRECs) are an extension of the traditional empirical envelope curve approach, in which a recurrence interval is estimated for a regional envelope curve (REC). The REC is constructed for a homogeneous pooling group of sites. The estimation of this recurrence interval is based on the effective sample years of data considering the intersite dependence among all sites of the pooling group. The core idea of this thesis was an improvement of discharge estimates for high recurrence intervals by integrating empirical and probabilistic regional envelope curves into the flood frequency analysis. Therefore, the method of probabilistic regional envelope curves was investigated in detail. Several pooling groups were derived by modifying candidate sets of catchment descriptors and settings of two different pooling methods. These were used to construct PRECs. A sensitivity analysis shows the variability of discharges and the recurrence intervals for a given site due to the different assumptions. The unit flood of record which governs the intercept of PREC was determined as the most influential aspect. By separating the catchments into nested and unnested pairs, the calculation algorithm for the effective sample years of data was refined. In this way, the estimation of the recurrence intervals was improved, and therefore the use of different parameter sets for nested and unnested pairs of catchments is recommended. In the second part of this thesis, PRECs were introduced into a distribution function. Whereas in the traditional approach only discharge values are used, PRECs provide a discharge and its corresponding recurrence interval. Hence, a novel approach was developed, which allows a combination of the PREC results with the traditional systematic flood series while taking the PREC recurrence interval into consideration. An adequate mixed bounded distribution function was presented, which in addition to the PREC results also uses an upper bound discharge derived by an empirical envelope curve. By doing so, two types of additional information which are representative for the upper tail of a distribution function were included in the flood frequency analysis. The integration of both types of additional information leads to an improved discharge estimation for recurrence intervals between 100 and 1000 years.
Abschätzungen von Abflüssen mit hohen Wiederkehrintervallen werden vor allem für die Bemessung von Extremhochwässern benötigt. In der Hochwasserstatistik bestehen insbesondere für hohe Wiederkehrintervalle große Unsicherheiten, da nur eine geringe Anzahl an Messwerten für Hochwasserereignisse verfügbar ist. Zudem werden zumeist Verteilungsfunktionen verwendet, die keine obere Grenze beinhalten. Daher müssen zusätzliche Informationen zu den lokalen Pegelmessungen berücksichtigt werden, die den Extrembereich einer Verteilungsfunktion abdecken. Hüllkurven ermitteln eine obere Grenze von Hochwasserabflüssen basierend auf beobachteten maximalen Abflusswerten. Daher sind sie eine geeignete Regionalisierungsmethode. Probabilistische regionale Hüllkurven sind eine Fortentwicklung des herkömmlichen Ansatzes der empirischen Hüllkurven. Hierbei wird einer Hüllkurve einer homogenen Region von Abflusspegeln ein Wiederkehrintervall zugeordnet. Die Berechnung dieses Wiederkehrintervalls basiert auf der effektiven Stichprobengröße und berücksichtigt die Korrelationsbeziehungen zwischen den Pegeln einer Region. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist eine Verbesserung der Abschätzung von Abflüssen mit großen Wiederkehrintervallen durch die Integration von empirischen und probabilistischen Hüllkurven in die Hochwasserstatistik. Hierzu wurden probabilistische Hüllkurven detailliert untersucht und für eine Vielzahl an homogenen Regionen konstruiert. Hierbei wurden verschiedene Kombinationen von Einzugsgebietsparametern und Variationen von zwei Gruppierungsmethoden verwendet. Eine Sensitivitätsanalyse zeigt die Variabilität von Abfluss und Wiederkehrintervall zwischen den Realisationen als Folge der unterschiedlichen Annahmen. Die einflussreichste Größe ist der maximale Abfluss, der die Höhe der Hüllkurve bestimmt. Eine Einteilung in genestete und ungenestete Einzugsgebiete führt zu einer genaueren Ermittlung der effektiven Stichprobe und damit zu einer verbesserten Abschätzung des Wiederkehrintervalls. Daher wird die Verwendung von zwei getrennten Parametersätzen für die Korrelationsfunktion zur Abschätzung des Wiederkehrintervalls empfohlen. In einem zweiten Schritt wurden die probabilistischen Hüllkurven in die Hochwasserstatistik integriert. Da in traditionellen Ansätzen nur Abflusswerte genutzt werden, wird eine neue Methode präsentiert, die zusätzlich zu den gemessenen Abflusswerten die Ergebnisse der probabilistischen Hüllkurve – Abfluss und zugehöriges Wiederkehrintervall - berücksichtigt. Die Wahl fiel auf eine gemischte begrenzte Verteilungsfunktion, die neben den probabilistischen Hüllkurven auch eine absolute obere Grenze, die mit einer empirischen Hüllkurve ermittelt wurde, beinhaltet. Damit werden zwei Arten von zusätzlichen Informationen verwendet, die den oberen Bereich einer Verteilungsfunktion beschreiben. Die Integration von beiden führt zu einer verbesserten Abschätzung von Abflüssen mit Wiederkehrintervallen zwischen 100 und 1000 Jahren.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

16

Daviau, Jean-Luc. "Spatially explicit regional flood frequency analysis using L-moment, GIS and geostatistical methods." Thesis, National Library of Canada = Bibliothèque nationale du Canada, 1998. http://www.collectionscanada.ca/obj/s4/f2/dsk3/ftp04/mq36680.pdf.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

17

Moaven-Hashemi, A. "A simulation analysis of climatic and basin factors affecting the flood frequency curve." Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 2000. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.405333.

Full text

Abstract:

A single site Neyman-Scott point process model of rainfall, with convective and stratiform cells (Cowpertwait, 1994; 1995), has been employed to generate synthetic rainfall inputs to a rainfall runoff model. The time series of the potential evapotranspiration (ETp) demand has been represented through an AR(n) model with seasonal component, while a simplified version of the ARNO rainfall-runoff model (Todini, 1996) has been employed to simulate the continuous discharge time series. The model incorporates a saturation excess runoff production component, and a routing component based on a network width function and a linear parabolic transfer function. All these models have been parameterised in a realistic manner using observed data and results from previous application, to obtain ‘reference’ parameter sets. Continuous hourly time series of rainfall and potential evapotranspiration, of length 10000 years, have been generated using the reference parameter sets for both models. They have been then used as inputs to the rainfall runoff model, and an hourly time series of discharges has been generated from which the annual maximum flood peaks have been extracted and plotted against the Gumbel variate. Subsequently, perturbations to the model parameters have been made through two approaches: a) the analysis initially was performed by perturbing the parameters one-at-a-time and the sensitivities of the generated annual maximum rainfall and flood frequency curves (unstandardised, and standardised by the mean) have been assessed graphically and with the assistance of several statistics (a) of the annual maximum rainfall and peak flood values and (b) of the soil moisture content at the storm arrival time. Overall, the sensitivity analysis described in this research suggests that the soil moisture regime, and, in particular, the probability distribution of soil moisture content at the storm arrival time, can be considered as a unifying link between the perturbation to the several parameters and their effects on the standardised and unstandardised ffcs, thus revealing the physical mechanism through which their influence is exercised. However, perturbations to the parameters of the linear routing component affect only the unstandardised ffc; b) the second approach which can be considered as a full sensitivity analysis, the effect of model parameters on the ffc has been assessed through an analysis of variance (ANOVA) of the results obtained from a formal experimental design, where all the parameters are allowed to vary simultaneously, thus providing deeper insight into the interactions between the different factors. This approach allows a wider range of climatic and basin conditions to be analysed and suggests that further investigations are needed to understand better the factors affecting the links between climate and basin characteristics and the ffc properties. Finally, as a complementary study, the simulation modelling approach is evaluated using several properties of the streamflow and annual maximum flood.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

18

Blainey, Joan Brandon. "Monte Carlo simulation of paleofloods information content of paleoflood data in flood-frequency analysis /." Thesis, The University of Arizona, 2000. http://etd.library.arizona.edu/etd/GetFileServlet?file=file:///data1/pdf/etd/azu_etd_hy0053_m_sip1_w.pdf&type=application/pdf.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

19

Miniussi, Arianna. "The metastatistical extreme value distribution for rainfall and flood frequency analysis with external drivers." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Padova, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/11577/3425928.

Full text

Abstract:

An accurate estimation of hydrologic extremes is fundamental for its manyimplications on engineering design, flood quantification and mapping, insurance and re-insurance purposes, policy-making. Traditional methods,hinging on the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution, are founded on often-overlooked and untested assumptions, make an ineffective use of the available data, and are ill-suited for accounting for inter-annual variability. With the aim of improving the estimation accuracy of high return period extremes, this dissertation focuses on the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution (MEVD), an approach introduced to relax some of the limitations of the traditional Extreme Value Theory. The present work first analyzes the definition of the optimal MEVD formulation as a function of local climatic factors and of key statistical properties of rainfall at the daily scale. It concludes that the inter-annual variability of rainfall statistical properties plays an important role in the definition of the optimal time window to be used for parameter estimation. In the largest amount of cases examined, except for very dry climates, with few rainy days, the analysis window should be kept to the minimum of 1 year in order to resolve the time variability of the distributions. The use of short time windows also makes the MEVD a suitable approach to study extremes in a changing climate, as it contributes to its ability to resolve inter-annual variability. Up to now, the MEVD has been applied mainly to rainfall (at the daily and hourly scale). Here, for the first time, the MEVD is used to study streamflow data, developing a flood frequency analysis MEVD-based on series of flow peaks in the Continental United States. Moreover, the impact of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on flood regimes is evaluated. In the comparison with the GEV, results show the outperformance of the MEVD in ~76% of the analyzed stations, with a significant reduction in the estimation error especially when considering return periods much higher than the size of the sample used to estimate the distributional parameters. Yet, a negligible improvement in the estimation of extreme floods was found when stratifying peaks according to ENSO phases. In the end, leveraging the appealing property of the MEVD to naturally include mixtures of distributions in its formulation, a MEVD that distinguishes between non-Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and Tropical Cyclones-induced rainfall is applied to several American metropolitan areas. The impact of TCs on rainfall is well distinguishable, and the use of a mixed MEVD approach resulted beneficial in several cases. Its advantage in the reduction of the estimation error when compared to the single-distribution MEVD was found to be more significant when considering cumulative values of rainfall over consecutive days, due to the prolonged impact TCs have on rainfall over time.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

20

White, Christopher John. "The use of joint probability analysis to predict flood frequency in estuaries and tidal rivers." Thesis, University of Southampton, 2007. https://eprints.soton.ac.uk/63847/.

Full text

Abstract:

This thesis investigates the combined influence of river flow, tide and surge on the frequency of extreme water levels in tidal rivers and estuaries. The estimation of flood risk may depend on extreme combinations of these variables rather than individual extreme events, but these relationships are complex and difficult to quantify. A probabilistic approach traditionally involves an assumption of independence between these primary hydrological variables, which can lead to the underestimation of the level of risk where river flow and tidal surge are often linked to the same low pressure weather system. This research develops a new methodology which combines traditional flood risk modelling techniques with statistical dependence to define the relationship between the hydrological variables. Dependence between river flow, tide and surge is assessed for a case study area of Lewes, East Sussex, UK, a town which is prone to both tidal and fluvial flooding. Bivariate and trivariate daily and extreme joint exceedance methods are developed and used in conjunction with a one-dimensional hydraulic model to analyse the interaction of river flow, tide and surge to predict the joint probability of potential flood events occurring in Lewes. The approach is validated using existing historical water levels observed in Lewes. The results demonstrate that the joint exceedance approach can be successfully employed to model the frequency of flood events caused by tide and river flow. The incorporation of a third variable of surge refines the approach further, and identifies the zone where the interaction of the variables has the greatest impact on resultant flood water levels.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

21

Fabbri, Erika. "Effects of reservoirs on regional flood frequency regime: a case study in Upper Austria." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2019.

Find full text

Abstract:

Intense alluvioni hanno colpito l’Europa nell’ultimo decennio, con frequenza ed intensità crescenti. Le dighe potrebbero interagire con il fenomeno alluvionale, attraverso l'eventuale attenuazione del picco di portata di piena. I loro effetti su ecologia, geomorfologia e idrologia fluviale sono noti, meno conosciute sono le possibili conseguenze sui regimi di piena, specialmente a scala regionale. I metodi di letteratura per tali analisi sono sito specifici e richiedono, per l’applicazione, numerosi dati. Lo scopo del nostro studio è quantificare le possibili conseguenze sul picco di piena della presenza di invasi nella regione dell'Alta Austria adottando un approccio parsimonioso sviluppato da Volpi et al. (2018). L’approccio quantifica la riduzione in funzione di tre numeri adimensionali che si riconducono espressamente a caratteristiche dell’invaso e del bacino imbrifero, esse sono: (1) la posizione dell’invaso nel bacino, (2) la capacità d’invaso, (3) l’effetto di ritardo del picco di piena alla sezione di chiusura che è in relazione alla dimensione delle dimensioni dello scarico dell'opera. La presente Tesi è una prima applicazione del modello ad un caso regionale reale, analizzando i parametri che compongono i numeri adimensionali sono indagate le relative proprietà di invasi e bacini. Si è poi valutata l’interazione delle strutture con i regimi di frequenza delle piene. Nell'area di studio, il regime di frequenza delle piene non è influenzato in maniera significativa dalla presenza degli invasi, a causa delle modeste capacità d’invaso e della limitata porzione dell’area del bacino imbrifero sottesa degli stessi. L’analisi dimostra come il modello sia applicabile a numerosi siti e a regioni estese, fornendo per esse una comprensione del fenomeno in relazione ai tre indici che esplicitano l’interazione di invasi e bacini. Ulteriori ricerche possono essere condotte con modelli maggiormente dettagliati, in maniera da validare i risultati ottenuti.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

22

Dikgola, Kobamelo. "Spatial and temporal variation of inundation in the Okavango Delta, Botswana; with special reference to areas used for flood recession cultivation." University of the Western Cape, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/11394/4677.

Full text

Abstract:

Philosophiae Doctor - PhD
The Okavango Delta is recognized as one of the famous inland wetlands and its sustainable use is important for socio-economic development of Botswana. The Okavango delta comprises permanent swamps, seasonal swamps, and drylands on islands within the delta and the surrounding areas, sustained by Okavango river inflows from upstream and local rainfall. TheOkavango River splits into several distributary channels within the delta. Areas which are flooded annually vary in response to varying inflows into the delta. Peak inflows into the delta occur during the February to May period. Due to the low gradient over the delta, these inflows move slowly resulting in peak outflows from the delta occurring during the June to August period. The inundated area over the entire delta increases from May until it reaches maximum inAugust and starts to decrease from September, reaching minimum inundated area in the months of December and January. The incoming flood wave into the delta and maximum inundation is out of phase with the local rainfall season.Communities living within and around the delta derive their livelihoods from tourism, hunting, fishing, livestock rearing, and crop production. Crop production is carried out on drylands and within floodplains. Some of the households take advantage of the increase in soil moisture arising from this inundation along floodplains to cultivate their crops as the floods recede. This practice is locally referred to as molapo farming which highly depends on inundation of floodplains. The availability of floodplain inundation highly depends on the magnitude of inflows into the delta and the local rainfall which are highly variable resulting in uncertainty regarding successful crop production, availability of livestock grazing areas, and uncertainty in reliance on the wetlands resources such as fishing. The uncertainty experienced in timing of extreme events which cause flooding of resulting in water reaching areas or floodplains where it is not wanted, and also uncertainity in timing of low flows, therefore water not reaching some parts of the delta.Several hydrological studies have been carried out with the aim of improving the understanding of the spatial and temporal dynamics of flows throughout the delta including predicting areas that are likely to be inundated each year. The significant gap addressed by this research is to improve the understanding of the spatial and temporal influence of magnitude and timing of flows on floodplain inundation. Local rainfall on the delta is highly variable over time and space due to its convective nature. This research also addresses the rainfall temporal and spatial variations and its implications on floodplain inundation. The knowledge about spatial extent and duration of floodplain inundation should assist in predicting each year the viability of molapo farming. Three research site, Shorobe, Tubu and Xobe are selected as case studies to understand the dynamics of floodplain inundation induced either by inflows or local rainfall. Local rainfall during the December to March period enables the crops to reach maturity. The onset of the rainy season is very important in supporting sowing of crop seeds. Local rainfall on the delta varies considerably. Aerial rainfall interpolation shows a change in rainfall magnitudes over space in different rainfall months, i.e different parts of the delta receive different rainfall magnitudes in different months of the rainy season. The spatial variation is mainly associated with the migration of the ITCZ southwards first through East Africa during October andNovember and down over Southern Africa in December to February. The movement of the ITCZ brings rainfall concentration on the northern and eastern parts of the Okavango Delta during December to January and bringing rainfall concentration to the northwestern part of the delta around February. However, rainfall spatial correlation between stations can be poor even within the first 150 km therefore implying neighboring places do not experience floodplain inundation by rainfall at the same time. The poor spatial correlation of rainfall between neighboring stations reflects the erratic nature of rainfall in the Okavango Delta characterised by localized thunderstorms. Change detection shows change points in rainfall which can be associated with ENSO episodes. A change point is identified in 1976 and 1977 which can be associated with the El Nino episodes during those years and two change points identified in 1999 and 2004 which can be associated with the La Nina episodes, therefore rainfall induced floodplain inundation can also be associated with wet and dry ENSO episodes. Rainfall does not show any significant trends except for an increasing trend on 10th percentile of Shakawe rainfall. Rainfall also does not show any cyclic behavior. Rainfall over the Okavango Delta can be divided into three unique homogenious sub-regions; sub-region 1: the northern part following the GEV probability distribution and being the region with highest rainfall amounts; sub-region 2: the lower northern and the outlet parts of the Okavango Delta following the GPA distribution with moderate rainfall; and sub-region 3: the middle part of the delta extending to the western and the eastern fringes of the delta, following the P3 distribution and having the lowest rainfall.The main characteristic that defines the Okavango Delta flows at Mohembo is its cyclic behavior. Three significant cycles are identified, close to 10, 20 and 40 years. No significant trends are identified, only a decreasing trend in minimum flows. Change points are identified in 1979 and 1988 and these can be explained by the existing cyclicity since no major land use changes have taken place in the Okavango River Basin upstream before 1989. The existence of cyclicity in Okavango River flows at Mohembo also explains the periodic wetting and drying of different floodplains in the delta. A long period of low flows was experienced from 1983 until 2003 and floodplain inundation extent was greatly reduced, more especially during the 1993-2003. During the 1993-2003 period, flows could no longer reach Maun Bridge along Thamalakne River, therefore leaving molapo floodplains around Boteti River, Gomoti River and Thaoge River to dry out. The 10 and 40 year return floods are important as they indicate the probability of a flood magnitude which has potential to result in major inundation in the Okavango Delta. Therefore, flood magnitudes with recurrence interval 10 and 40 years have high probability of occurring and can cause major floodplain inundation as they can be above the 2009 flood of 969 m3/s, which was the return of major inundation of Okavango Delta floodplains after a long period of dryness. The Ngoqa-Maunachira distributary channel of the Okavango River receives 32% of flow volumes entering the Okavango Delta at Mohembo. 12 % of the Mohembo flow volumes reach the Jao-Boro distributary whilst 1% is received by the Thaoge distributary. Therefore more inundation is experienced along the Ngoqa-Maunachira system compared to the other two. Only about 2% of the Mohembo flow volumes leave the Okavango Delta through Boteti River. Long term shifting of flow direction amongst reaches along the Okavango Delta distributaries is evident more especially along the Ngoqa-Maunachira River system. This results in shifting of inundation. Sub-surface water respond significantly to local rainfall and inflows with high soil moisture conditions retained at 60 cm and 100 cm below the ground.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

23

Kinsvater, Paul [Verfasser], Roland [Akademischer Betreuer] Fried, Walter [Gutachter] Krämer, and Peter [Gutachter] Ruckdeschel. "Semi- and non-parametric flood frequency analysis / Paul Kinsvater ; Gutachter: Walter Krämer, Peter Ruckdeschel ; Betreuer: Roland Fried." Dortmund : Universitätsbibliothek Dortmund, 2016. http://d-nb.info/1116711273/34.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

24

Lilienthal, Jona [Verfasser], Roland [Akademischer Betreuer] Fried, and Uwe [Gutachter] Ligges. "Group-based regionalization in flood frequency analysis considering heterogeneity / Jona Lilienthal ; Gutachter: Uwe Ligges ; Betreuer: Roland Fried." Dortmund : Universitätsbibliothek Dortmund, 2019. http://d-nb.info/1201160820/34.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

25

MISHRA, Binaya Kumar. "Enhanced regional frequency analysis for design flood estimation by incorporating NRCS-runoff curve number and synthetic data." 京都大学 (Kyoto University), 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/126503.

Full text

Abstract:

Kyoto University (京都大学)
0048
新制・課程博士
博士(工学)
甲第14932号
工博第3159号
新制||工||1474(附属図書館)
27370
UT51-2009-M846
京都大学大学院工学研究科都市環境工学専攻
(主査)教授寶馨, 教授中北英一, 准教授立川康人
学位規則第4条第1項該当

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

26

Guse, Björn Felix [Verfasser], and Bruno [Akademischer Betreuer] Merz. "Improving flood frequency analysis by integration of empirical and probabilistic regional envelope curves / Björn Felix Guse ; Betreuer: Bruno Merz." Potsdam : Universität Potsdam, 2010. http://d-nb.info/1218391049/34.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

27

Norbiato, Daniele. "Regional analysis of flooding and flash flooding." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Padova, 2008. http://hdl.handle.net/11577/3425502.

Full text

Abstract:

Improving the capacity to make predictions in ungauged basins is one of most difficult challenge for the scientific community (see for example the current initiative Prediction Ungaged Basins (PUB) launched by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, IAHS). Whatever hydrological models are used, in view of the tremendous spatio-temporal heterogeneity of climatic and landscape properties, extrapolation of information, or knowledge, from gauged to ungauged basins remains fraught with considerable difficulties and uncertainties, especially in the light of the generally poor understanding of where water goes when it rains, what flow path it takes to the stream, and the age of the water that emerges in the channel. The PUB problem is the key concept of this thesis and it is analysed from several point of view. Methodologies able to observe, model and predict the hydrological response at the regional scale are proposed.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

28

Matti, Bettina. "Trends in high peak flow generation across the Swedish Subarctic." Thesis, Stockholms universitet, Institutionen för naturgeografi, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:su:diva-118483.

Full text

Abstract:

There is growing concern for increased frequency of extreme events due to several severe floods and droughts occurring globally in recent years. Improving knowledge on the complexity of hydrological systems and interactions with climate is essential to be able to determine drivers and predict changes in the future. This is especially true in cold regions such as the Swedish Subarctic. This thesis explored changes in high peak flows and linked trends to climate. Trend analyses were applied on 18 catchments in the Swedish Subarctic over their entire periods of record and a common period (1990-2013) among the data to explore changes in flood magnitude, flood occurrence, mean summer flow, snowmelt onset and center of mass. Further, a flood frequency analysis was applied using the extreme value type I (Gumbel) distribution and selected flood percentiles were tested for stationarity. The results show the complexity of the hydrological system and interactions with climate. No clear overall pattern could be determined suggesting that changes are happening at catchment scale. Indications for a shift in flow regime from snowmelt-dominated to rainfall-dominated are evident with all significant trends pointing towards lower flood magnitudes in the spring flood, earlier flood occurrence and snowmelt onset, and decreasing mean summer flows. The shift in flow regime suggests that air temperature is more clearly reflected in streamflow than precipitation in the Swedish Subarctic. Decreasing trends in flood magnitude and mean summer flows are suggestive of permafrost thawing, which agrees with the increasing trends in the annual minimum flow. Long streamflow records can further link variability in streamflow to multidecadal atmospheric circulations over the North Atlantic. Most evident are changes towards lower mean summer flows (ten catchments significant at a 95% confidence interval) and earlier snowmelt onset (eight catchments significant). Trends in the selected flood percentiles show indications towards an increase in extreme events over the entire period (significant for four catchments), with all significant trends being positive. Over the common period, no pattern is notable and the sensitivity of trend analyses is evident.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

29

Porcheron, Delphine. "Caractérisation des régimes de crues fréquentes en France - un regard géostatistique." Thesis, Université Grenoble Alpes (ComUE), 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018GREAU032/document.

Full text

Abstract:

Peu de travaux se sont attachés à estimer les statistiques relatives aux crues fréquentes en sites non jaugés. Celles-ci ont de fait été délaissées par la communauté hydrologique, plus encline à s’intéresser aux événements extrêmes (périodes de retour d’au moins 10 ans) utilisés dans la gestion du risque inondation. Cependant, le régime des hautes eaux ne se limite pas à ces seules caractéristiques. Une bonne connaissance des crues modérées est requise dans de nombreux domaines comme l’hydroécologie ou l’hydromorphologie. La fréquente occurrence de ces crues implique en effet un modelage régulier du lit. Elles concourent ainsi à conditionner les habitats écologiques au sein des hydrosystèmes d’eau douce.L’objectif de cette thèse consiste à caractériser le régime des crues fréquentes, i.e. de périodes de retour de 1 à 5 ans, en France métropolitaine. Pour cela, il est nécessaire de considérer les chroniques disponibles au plan national, et d’en extraire l’information hydrologique pertinente. La constitution d’un échantillon fiable permettant une analyse robuste représente à ce titre une étape importante. La sélection de stations s’appuie sur une analyse des valeurs extrêmes de débit, extraites des chroniques de débit à pas de temps variable (longueur de la série, stationnarité, comportement des distributions statistiques…), ainsi que sur les informations fournies par les gestionnaires des stations hydrométriques. La démarche adoptée consiste à décrire les évènements de crues modérées dans un souci d’exhaustivité, à la fois en termes de débits mais aussi de volumes, selon une analyse multi-durées décrite par les courbes QdF (débit-durée-fréquence), qui fournissent les quantiles de crue (pic et volumes). Le modèle QdF convergent exploité ici permet de réduire à 3 le nombre de paramètres descriptifs du régime des crues.Pour caractériser le régime des crues fréquentes sur l’ensemble du réseau hydrographique français, la démarche intègre la mise en œuvre de méthodes dites « de régionalisation ». Il s’agit de transférer l’information hydrologique disponible aux sites de mesures vers l’ensemble du réseau hydrographique français. Plusieurs approches ont été envisagées. Ainsi, des formulations empiriques établies sur des découpages régionaux ont été mises en œuvre. Fréquemment utilisée, cette technique nécessite de limiter le nombre de stations présentant des enregistrements disjoints afin d’éviter le risque de représenter une variabilité temporelle plutôt qu’un effet spatial. Le respect de cette contrainte entraîne une perte de 30% de stations hydrométriques de l’échantillon initial.C’est pour limiter cette perte d’information non négligeable que la méthode TREK (Time-REferenced data Kriging) a été développée. Cet algorithme de cartographie a été conçu afin de prendre en compte le support temporel des données disponibles en plus du support spatial. Les données disponibles participent plus ou moins aux estimations selon leur période d'observation propre. TREK permet ainsi d'atténuer la perte de données provoquée par le recours à une période de référence commune ou un seuil maximal de lacunes autorisées. Pour répondre aux objectifs de la thèse, les différentes méthodes d’estimation en sites non jaugés sont mises en œuvre et leur efficience est évaluée dans le cadre d’une validation croisée. Cette démarche de comparaison objective permet de sélectionner le modèle optimal pour caractériser le régime des crues fréquentes sur le réseau hydrographique français
Only a few studies have focused on frequent floods regimes at ungauged locations. Most of works have put their efforts on extreme flood events (return periods of 10 years or more) needed for solving many engineering issues in flood risk management. However, high flows regime is not confined to extremes values. A good understanding of frequent floods is required in a wide array of topics like hydroecology and hydromorphomology. Frequent floods provide many functions, maintaining and rejuvenating ecological habitats and influencing the geomorphology of the streambed, so their distribution must be also known.The main objective of this work is to characterise the frequent floods from a statistical point of view (with a return period between 1 and 5 years) in France. Forming the dataset is a preliminary crucial step to derive both robust and reliable statistics. The selection relies on different criteria, for example related to the quality of discharge measurements, the length of records, the self-assessment of people in charge, and finally on an analysis of extreme values extracted from time series (stationarity, shape of the distributions…).A comprehensive description of frequent floods regimes (intensity, duration and frequency) is required. It is achieved by applying the flow-duration–frequency (QdF) model which takes into account the temporal dynamics of floods. This approach is analogous to the intensity-duration–frequency (IdF) model commonly used for extreme rainfall analysis. At gauged locations, the QdF model can be summarised with only three parameters: the position and scale parameters of the exponential distribution fitted to the samples of instantaneous peak floods and a parameter homogeneous to a decay time computed from observed data.Different regionalisation methods were applied for estimating these three QdF parameters at ungauged locations. Regionalisation methods rely on the concept of transferring hydrological information from a site of measurement to ungauged sites. However these approaches require simultaneous records to avoid that the map is spoiled by temporal variability rather than display truly spatial patterns. Regional empirical formulas were derived but the constraints discussed above lead to discard 30% of the dataset.Time-REferenced data Kriging method (TREK) has been developed to overcome this issue. This alogrithm was developped in order to account the temporal support over which the variable of interest has been calculated, in addition to its spatial support. This approach aims at reducing the loss of data caused by the selection of a common reference period of records required to build a reliable dataset. The performances of each method have been assessed by cross-validation and a combination of best features is finally selected to map the frequent flow features over France

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

30

Souza, Saulo Aires de. "Avaliação das metodologias para determinação de valores máximos de variáveis hidrológicas: aplicação do método conjugado." Universidade de São Paulo, 2006. http://www.teses.usp.br/teses/disponiveis/18/18138/tde-06112006-133657/.

Full text

Abstract:

A definição de valores máximos de variáveis hidrológicas na engenharia de recursos hídricos atua como ferramenta de extrema importância em vista de inúmeras aplicações práticas que se utilizam desses valores. Neste trabalho é apresentada uma revisão do estado da arte na definição de valores máximos de variáveis hidrológicas (metodologia estatística e determinística). Na metodologia estatística é mostrada uma avaliação conceitual e crítica, na qual é apresentado um exemplo numérico que demonstra as inconsistências ou falhas que caracterizam a necessidade de revisão nos conceitos. Na metodologia determinística é demonstrada as técnicas que definirão os valores da precipitação máxima provável e algumas considerações adicionais quanto à metodologia determinística, principalmente no que se refere às imprecisões dos valores determinados para a precipitação máxima provável/enchente máxima provável. A partir das conclusões sobre ambas as metodologias avaliadas é aplicado uma nova metodologia para determinação de valores máximos de projeto. Essa metodologia, denominada conjugada, resulta da combinação dos procedimentos atualmente usados: metodologia probabilística e determinística. Com o objetivo de caracterizar as importantes contribuições do método conjugado para engenharia, são apresentados alguns estudos de casos que procuram demonstrar a aplicabilidade prática do método e suas vantagens em detrimento aos métodos atuais. A conclusão é que o método conjugado representa um avanço em relação aos métodos atualmente utilizados, uma vez que é consistente com o fenômeno físico e permite atribuir probabilidades às variáveis hidrológicas, resultando em valores de projeto mais realista.
The description of extreme values of hydrological variables in water resources engineering is an extremely importance tool for innumerable practical applications. This work provides a review of statistical and deterministic methods that are used to estimate extreme values of hydrological variables. A critical and conceptual evaluation of statistical methods is presented along with a numerical example that demonstrates the inconsistencies or imperfections of such methods, characterizing the necessity of revisions of these concepts. Deterministic methods to estimate the maximum probable precipitation are also presented and some additional considerations regarding the methodology are discussed, especially those concerned to the imprecise estimates of the maximum probable precipitation/flood. A new methodology to estimate extreme values of hydrologic variables for engineering projects is developed based upon conclusions about the evaluated methodologies. This new methodology is called conjugated, and results from the combination of the currently used statistical and deterministic procedures. In order to characterize the important contributions provided by the conjugated method, some case studies are presented as an attempt to demonstrate its practical applicability as well as its advantages over current methods. The conclusion is that the conjugate method represents an advance with respect to current methods because it is consistent with the physical phenomenon and it allows assigning probabilities to the hydrological variable, resulting in more realistic values to be employed in engineering projects.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

31

Odry, Jean. "Prédétermination des débits de crues extrêmes en sites non jaugés : régionalisation de la méthode par simulation SHYREG." Thesis, Aix-Marseille, 2017. http://www.theses.fr/2017AIXM0424/document.

Full text

Abstract:

L’estimation de l’aléa hydrologique en sites non jaugés présente un enjeu important pour la gestion des risques. La complexité du phénomène réside à la fois dans la nécessité d’avoir une approche multivariée (estimation de caractéristiques multiples des crues : durées, périodes de retour) qui propose une extrapolation raisonnable des événements. SHYREG est une méthode basée sur la simulation de scénarios de crues, qui présente ces avantages. Évaluée lors du projet ANR ExtraFlo, elle présente de bonnes performances en justesse et en stabilité lorsqu'elle est calée sur des données locales de débits. Cette méthode vise à estimer des débits de crue en tout point du territoire. Elle doit donc pouvoir être appliquée en site non jaugés.Le travail de thèse présenté ici se focalise sur le transfert de la méthode vers le non jaugé en s’intéressant aux valeurs des débits simulés mais aussi à leur cohérence. Tout d’abord, une révision du calage a permis de s’assurer de la cohérence des débits simulés le long d’un cours d’eau. Ensuite, l’application d’un large panel de méthodes de régionalisation a permis de déterminer que la régionalisation devait s’appuyer à la fois sur la structure spatiale et sur les caractéristiques physiographiques des bassins. Finalement, une méthode qui régionalise SHYREG simultanément à son calage a été retenue. Une comparaison avec d’autres approches régionalisées a mis en évidence la qualité du modèle développé
Flood hazard estimation in ungauged sites presents a major challenge for risk management. The complexity of the phenomenon arises from both the need for a multivariate approach (estimation of different flood characteristics: peak flow, volume, duration ...), and for an approach which offers a reasonable extrapolation of extreme events. The SHYREG method is based on the simulation of flood scenarios and presents these benefits. It has been evaluated during the ANR ExtraFlo project. It showed good performance in both accuracy and stability when calibrated against local discharge data. However, weaknesses have been identified when implemented in ungauged sites.The objective of the present thesis is to develop the method in order to improve the SHYREG performances in ungauged sites. Two kinds of modifications were implemented. First, the calibration of the method in gauged sites was reviewed. The main idea was to integrate more data and to take more into account the coherence between simulated discharges in different sites. Then, diverse regionalisation schemes extracted from the scientific literature were considered. Their application demonstrated the necessity to exploit information from nearby sites and the physical properties of the catchments. Finally, a version which realises the regionalisation simultaneously to the calibration has been selected. Its comparison with other method showed the quality of this new version of SHYREG

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

32

Andersson, Sara. "Mapping Uncertainties – A case study on a hydraulic model of the river Voxnan." Thesis, KTH, Mark- och vattenteknik, 2015. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-173848.

Full text

Abstract:

This master thesis gives an account for the numerous uncertainties that prevail one-dimensional hydraulic models and flood inundation maps, as well as suitable assessment methods for different types of uncertainties. A conducted uncertainty assessment on the river Voxnan in Sweden has been performed. The case study included the calibra-tion uncertainty in the spatially varying roughness coefficient and the boundary condi-tion uncertainty in the magnitude of a 100-year flood, in present and future climate conditions. By combining a scenario analysis, GLUE calibration method and Monte Carlo analysis, the included uncertainties with different natures could be assessed. Significant uncer-tainties regarding the magnitude of a 100-year flood from frequency analysis was found. The largest contribution to the overall uncertainty was given by the variance between the nine global climate models, emphasizing the importance of including projections from an ensemble of models in climate change studies. Furthermore, the study gives a methodological example on how to present uncertainty estimates visually in probabilistic flood inundation maps. The conducted method of how the climate change uncertainties, scenarios and models, were handled in frequency analysis is also suggested to be a relevant result of the study.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

33

Brockman, Ruth Roseann. "HYDRAULIC GEOMETRY RELATIONSHIPS AND REGIONAL CURVES FOR THE INNER AND OUTER BLUEGRASS REGIONS OF KENTUCKY." UKnowledge, 2010. http://uknowledge.uky.edu/gradschool_theses/56.

Full text

Abstract:

Hydraulic geometry relationships and regional curves are used in natural channel design to assist engineers, biologists, and fluvial geomorphologists in the efforts undertaken to ameliorate previous activities that have diminished, impaired or destroyed the structure and function of stream systems. Bankfull channel characteristics were assessed for 14 United States Geological Survey (USGS) gaged sites in the Inner Bluegrass and 15 USGS gaged sites in the Outer Bluegrass Regions of Kentucky. Hydraulic geometry relationships and regional curves were developed for the aforementioned regions. Analysis of the regression relationships showed that bankfull discharge is a good explanatory variable for bankfull parameters such as area, width and depth. The hydraulic geometry relationships developed produced high R2 values up to 0.95. The relationships were also compared to other studies and show strong relationships to both theoretical and empirical data. Regional curves, relating drainage area to bankfull parameters, were developed and show that drainage area is a good explanatory variable for bankfull parameters. R2 values for the regional curves were as high as 0.98.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

34

Brownell, Dorie Lynn. "Application of a Geographical Information System to Estimate the Magnitude and Frequency of Floods in the Sandy and Clackamas River Basins, Oregon." PDXScholar, 1995. https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/open_access_etds/4877.

Full text

Abstract:

A geographical information system (GIS) was used to develop a regression model designed to predict flood magnitudes in the Sandy and Clackamas river basins in Oregon. Manual methods of data assembly, input, storage, manipulation and analysis traditionally used to estimate basin characteristics were replaced with automated techniques using GIS-based computer hardware and software components. Separate GIS data layers representing (1) stream gage locations, (2) drainage basin boundaries, (3) hydrography, (4) water bodies, (5) precipitation, (6) landuse/land cover, (7) elevation and (8) soils were created and stored in a GIS data base. Several GIS computer programs were written to automate the spatial analysis process needed in the estimation of basin characteristic values using the various GIS data layers. Twelve basin characteristic data parameters were computed and used as independent variables in the regression model. Streamflow data from 19 gaged sites in the Sandy and Clackamas basins were used in a log Pearson Type III analysis to define flood magnitudes at 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50- and 100-year recurrence intervals. Flood magnitudes were used as dependent variables and regressed against different sets of basin characteristics (independent variables) to determine the most significant independent variables used to explain peak discharge. Drainage area, average annual precipitation and percent area above 5000 feet proved to be the most significant explanatory variables for defining peak discharge characteristics in the Sandy and Clackamas river basins. The study demonstrated that a GIS can be successfully applied in the development of basin characteristics for a flood frequency analysis and can achieve the same level of accuracy as manual methods. Use of GIS technology reduced the time and cost associated with manual methods and allowed for more in-depth development and calibration of the regression model. With the development of GIS data layers and the use of GIS-based computer programs to automate the calculation of explanatory variables, regression equations can be developed and applied more quickly and easily. GIS proved to be ideally suited for flood frequency modeling applications by providing advanced computerized techniques for spatial analysis and data base management.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

35

Fuentes-Andino, Diana. "Flood Hazard Assessment in Data-Scarce Basins : Use of alternative data and modelling techniques." Doctoral thesis, Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för geovetenskaper, 2017. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-317332.

Full text

Abstract:

Flooding is of great concern world-wide, causing damage to infrastructure, property and loss of life. Low-income countries, in particular, can be negatively affected by flood events due to their inherent vulnerabilities. Moreover, data to perform studies for flood risk management in low-income regions are often scarce or lacking sufficient quality. This thesis proposes new methodologies and explores the use of unconventional sources of information in flood hazard assessment in areas where the quantity or sufficient quality of traditional hydrometrical data are lacking. One method was developed to account for errors in spatially averaged rainfall, from a sparse rain-gauge network, used as input to a rainfall-runoff model. A spatially-averaged and event-dependent rainfall depth multiplier led to improvements of the hydrographs at calibration. And by using a distribution of the multiplier, identified from previous events in the catchment, improvement in predictions could also be obtained. A second method explored the possibility of reproducing an unmeasured extreme flood event using a combination of models, post-event data, precipitation and an uncertainty-analysis framework. This combination allowed the identification of likelihood-associated parameter sets from which the flood hazard map for the extreme event could be obtained. A third and fourth study made at the regional scale explored the value of catchment similarities, and the effects of climate on the hydrological response of catchments. Flood frequency curves were estimated for 36 basins, assumed ungauged, using regional information of short flow records, and local information about the frequency of the storm. In the second regional study, hydro-climatic information provided great value to constrain predictions of series of daily flow from a hydrological model. Previously described methods, used in combination with unconventional information within an uncertainty analysis, proven to be useful for flood hazard assessment at basins with data limitations. The explored data included: post-event measurements of an extreme flood event, hydro-climate regional information and local precipitation data. The methods presented in this thesis are expected to support development of hydrological studies underpinning flood-risk reduction in data-poor areas.
Extremt höga vattenflöden ställer till stora problem i hela världen. De skadar infrastruktur och egendom och orsakar död. Framför allt kan låg- och medelinkomstländer vara väldigt sårbara för extrema flöden. I dessa länder saknas dessutom ofta data som behövs för att kunna bedöma översvämningsrisker, eller så finns bara data av dålig kvalitet. Denna avhandling föreslår nya metoder som använder okonventionella informationskällor vid bedömning av översvämningsrisker i områden där traditionella hydrologiska data saknas eller har otillräcklig kvalitet. En metod utvecklades för att ta hänsyn till fel i rumslig medelnederbörd beräknad från ett glest nät av nederbördsmätare att användas som indata i en nederbörds-avrinningsmodell. Användning av en multiplikator för medelvärdesbildad nederbörd, i tid och rum, för enskilda högflödestillfällen ledde till förbättrad modellkalibrering. Genom att använda multiplikatorfördelningar, identifierade från tidigare högflödestillfällen i avrinningsområdet, kunde också prognoser förbättras. En andra metod använde sig av möjligheten att reproducera ett extremt högflöde inom ramen för en osäkerhetsanalys med hjälp av en kombination av modeller, nederbördsdata och data som uppmätts i efterhand. Denna kombination gjorde det möjligt att identifiera parametervärdesuppsättningar med hophörande sannolikheter ur vilka det gick att erhålla en översvämningskarta för det höga flödet. En tredje och fjärde studie i regional skala utforskade värdet av likheter mellan avrinningsområden och hur områdenas hydrologiska gensvar beror av klimatet. Kurvan för kumulativa högflödesfrekvenser (flood frequency curve, FFC) kunde skattas med hjälp av lokal nederbördsinformation och regional information om korta tidsserier av vattenföring från 36 avrinningsområden som antogs sakna vattenföringsdata. I den andra regionala studien visade sig hydroklimatisk information av värde för att avgränsa godtagbara prognoser för daglig vattenföring från en hydrologisk modell. Tidigare beskrivna metoder, använda tillsammans med okonventionell information inom ramen för en osäkerhetsanalys, visade sig vara användbara för att bedöma översvämningsrisker i avrinningsområden med databegränsningar. Bland utforskade data fanns: mätningar i efterhand av ett extremt högflöde, hydroklimatisk regional information och lokala nederbördsmätningar. Metoderna i denna avhandling förväntas kunna stödja utvecklingen av hydrologiska studier av höga flöden och översvämningar i områden med bristande datatillgång.
Las inundaciones ocasionan daños a la infraestructura, propiedad y pérdida de vidas a nivel mundial. Los países en desarrollo son los más vulnerables a inundaciones, la calidad y cantidad de datos hidro-climatológicos disponibles en los mismos dificulta el desarrollo de estudios para la evaluación de riesgo a esta amenaza. Esta tesis propone métodos en la que se hace uso de fuentes de información no-convencionales para la evaluación de riesgo por inundación en regiones con datos escasos o limitados. Un método considera el error asociado a la precipitación promedio sobre cuencas en modelos lluvia-escorrentía como un factor multiplicador del histograma del evento. El uso de la precipitación promedio junto con una distribución probabilística del factor multiplicador como datos de entrada a un modelo de lluvia-escorrentía mejoraron los hidrogramas durante los periodos de calibración y predicción. Un segundo método exploró la posibilidad de reproducir un evento extremo de inundación usando una combinación de modelos hidrológicos e hidráulico, un análisis de incertidumbre, datos hidrométricos recopilados después del evento y datos de precipitación registrados durante-el-evento. Dicha combinación permitió la identificación de los parámetros de los modelos y la elaboración un mapa de amenaza por inundaciones para dicho evento. Adicionalmente, se estimaron curvas de frecuencia de inundaciones para 36 cuencas, asumidas no aforadas, mediante un método de regionalización que usa registros de caudal de corta duración disponibles en la región. Dichas curvas fueron extendidas haciendo uso de información local sobre la frecuencia de las tormentas. Se encontró que la información hidro-climatológica tiene un gran valor para reducir el rango de incertidumbre de las simulaciones de caudal diaria de un modelo hidrológico. Los métodos anteriores se usaron en combinación con información no-convencional dentro de un análisis de incertidumbre y han probado su utilidad para la evaluación de riesgo por inundaciones en cuencas con registros escasos o limitados. Los datos utilizados en esta tesis incluyen datos hidrométricos recopilados pasado el evento, registros hidro-climatológicos regionales y precipitación local. Se espera que los métodos presentados aquí contribuyan al desarrollo de estudios hidrológicos importantes para la reducción del riesgo por inundaciones en regiones con déficit de registros hidro-climatológicos.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

36

Brunner, Manuela. "Hydrogrammes synthétiques par bassin et types d'événements. Estimation, caractérisation, régionalisation et incertitude." Thesis, Université Grenoble Alpes (ComUE), 2018. http://www.theses.fr/2018GREAU003/document.

Full text

Abstract:

L'estimation de crues de projet est requise pour le dimensionnement de barrages et de bassins de rétention, de même que pour la gestion des inondations lors de l’élaboration de cartes d’aléas ou lors de la modélisation et délimitation de plaines d’inondation. Généralement, les crues de projet sont définies par leur débit de pointe à partir d’une analyse fréquentielle univariée. Cependant, lorsque le dimensionnement d’ouvrages hydrauliques ou la gestion de crues nécessitent un stockage du volume ruisselé, il est également nécessaire de connaître les caractéristiques volume, durée et forme de l’hydrogramme de crue en plus de son débit maximum. Une analyse fréquentielle bivariée permet une estimation conjointe du débit de pointe et du volume de l’hydrogramme en tenant compte de leur corrélation. Bien qu’une telle approche permette la détermination du couple débit/volume de crue, il manque l’information relative à la forme de l’hydrogramme de crue. Une approche attrayante pour caractériser la forme de la crue de projet est de définir un hydrogramme représentatif normalisé par une densité de probabilité. La combinaison d’une densité de probabilité et des quantiles bivariés débit/volume permet la construction d’un hydrogramme synthétique de crue pour une période de retour donnée, qui modélise le pic d’une crue ainsi que sa forme. De tels hydrogrammes synthétiques sont potentiellement utiles et simples d’utilisation pour la détermination de crues de projet. Cependant, ils possèdent actuellement plusieurs limitations. Premièrement, ils reposent sur la définition d’une période de retour bivariée qui n’est pas univoque. Deuxièmement, ils décrivent en général le comportement spécifique d’un bassin versant en ne tenant pas compte de la variabilité des processus représentée par différents types de crues. Troisièmement, les hydrogrammes synthétiques ne sont pas disponibles pour les bassins versant non jaugés et une estimation de leurs incertitudes n’est pas calculée.Pour remédier à ces manquements, cette thèse propose des avenues pour la construction d’hydrogrammes synthétiques de projet pour les bassins versants jaugés et non jaugés, de même que pour la prise en compte de la diversité des types de crue. Des méthodes sont également développées pour la construction d’hydrogrammes synthétiques de crue spécifiques au bassin et aux événements ainsi que pour la régionalisation des hydrogrammes. Une estimation des diverses sources d’incertitude est également proposée. Ces travaux de recherche montrent que les hydrogrammes synthétiques de projet constituent une approche qui s’adapte bien à la représentation de différents types de crue ou d’événements dans un contexte de détermination de crues de projet. Une comparaison de différentes méthodes de régionalisation montre que les hydrogrammes synthétiques de projet spécifiques au bassin peuvent être régionalisés à des bassins non jaugés à l’aide de méthodes de régression linéaires et non linéaires. Il est également montré que les hydrogrammes de projet spécifiques aux événements peuvent être régionalisés à l’aide d’une approche d’indice de crue bivariée. Dans ce contexte, une représentation fonctionnelle de la forme des hydrogrammes constitue un moyen judicieux pour la délimitation de régions ayant un comportement hydrologique de crue similaire en terme de réactivité. Une analyse de l’incertitude a montré que la longueur de la série de mesures et le choix de la stratégie d’échantillonnage constituent les principales sources d’incertitude dans la construction d’hydrogrammes synthétiques de projet. Cette thèse démontre qu’une approche de crues de projet basée sur un ensemble de crues permet la prise en compte des différents types de crue et de divers processus. Ces travaux permettent de passer de l’analyse fréquentielle statistique de crues vers l’analyse fréquentielle hydrologique de crues permettant de prendre en compte les processus et conduisant à une prise de décision plus éclairée
Design flood estimates are needed in hydraulic design for the construction of dams and retention basins and in flood management for drawing hazard maps or modeling inundation areas. Traditionally, such design floods have been expressed in terms of peak discharge estimated in a univariate flood frequency analysis. However, design or flood management tasks involving storage, in addition to peak discharge, also require information on hydrograph volume, duration, and shape . A bivariate flood frequency analysis allows the joint estimation of peak discharge and hydrograph volume and the consideration of their dependence. While such bivariate design quantiles describe the magnitude of a design flood, they lack information on its shape. An attractive way of modeling the whole shape of a design flood is to express a representative normalized hydrograph shape as a probability density function. The combination of such a probability density function with bivariate design quantiles allows the construction of a synthetic design hydrograph for a certain return period which describes the magnitude of a flood along with its shape. Such synthetic design hydrographs have the potential to be a useful and simple tool in design flood estimation. However, they currently have some limitations. First, they rely on the definition of a bivariate return period which is not uniquely defined. Second, they usually describe the specific behavior of a catchment and do not express process variability represented by different flood types. Third, they are neither available for ungauged catchments nor are they usually provided together with an uncertainty estimate.This thesis therefore explores possibilities for the construction of synthetic design hydrographs in gauged and ungauged catchments and ways of representing process variability in design flood construction. It proposes tools for both catchment- and flood-type specific design hydrograph construction and regionalization and for the assessment of their uncertainty.The thesis shows that synthetic design hydrographs are a flexible tool allowing for the consideration of different flood or event types in design flood estimation. A comparison of different regionalization methods, including spatial, similarity, and proximity based approaches, showed that catchment-specific design hydrographs can be best regionalized to ungauged catchments using linear and nonlinear regression methods. It was further shown that event-type specific design hydrograph sets can be regionalized using a bivariate index flood approach. In such a setting, a functional representation of hydrograph shapes was found to be a useful tool for the delineation of regions with similar flood reactivities.An uncertainty assessment showed that the record length and the choice of the sampling strategy are major uncertainty sources in the construction of synthetic design hydrographs and that this uncertainty propagates through the regionalization process.This thesis highlights that an ensemble-based design flood approach allows for the consideration of different flood types and runoff processes. This is a step from flood frequency statistics to flood frequency hydrology which allows better-informed decision making

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

37

Nguyen, Chi Cong. "Improvement of Bayesian MCMC approaches for regional flood frequency analyses." Phd thesis, UNIVERSITÉ DE NANTES, 2012. http://tel.archives-ouvertes.fr/tel-00851169.

Full text

Abstract:

En hydrologie, un grand nombre d’études ont porté sur l’amélioration de l’estimation des quantiles de crues (débit maximum ou tout autre caractéristique de période de retour donnée). Cette estimation repose généralement sur des séries de crues maximales annuelles mesurées ou de valeurs dépassant un seuil. Cependant, les séries de données locales s’avèrent souvent trop courtes pour fournir des estimations fiables des quantiles de périodes de retour intermédiaires (typiquement 50 à 1000 ans). Sans informations supplémentaires pour affiner la forme de la distribution statistique, les résultats de l’analyse fréquentielle conduite s’avèrent généralement très incertains. Pour cette raison, les hydrologues ont tenté de faire usage de sources d’information alternatives. Plusieurs approches développées consistent en une "extension temporelle" du jeu de données, basée sur l’intégration des données historiques et préhistoriques (Hosking et al. 1985b, Hosking and Wallis 1986a;b, Stedinger and Tasker 1986, Cohn and Stadinger 1987, Gary and Stedinger 1987, Sutcliffe 1987, Minghui and Stedinger 1989, Sheffer et al. 2003, Reis et al. 2005, Werritty et al. 2006, Ribatet et al. 2007b; 2009, Neppel et al. 2010, Payrastre et al. 2011). D’autres approches couramment utilisées pour enrichir les jeux de données disponibles pour l’inférence statistique correspondent à une "extension spatiale", et consistent en la fusion de données considérées comme statistiquement homogènes pour construire un large échantillon régional de données (Hosking and Wallis 1997, Charles and Stedinger 1999, Ouarda et al. 2001, Kjeldsen et al. 2002, Merz and Bloschl 2003, Seidou et al. 2006, Ribatet et al. 2007a, Norbiato et al. 2007, Wallis et al. 2007, Kjeldsen and Jones 2009). La plupart de ces approches sont basées sur l’hypothèse du "simple scaling" qui suppose que les distributions statistiques des débits de crues ont une forme identique au sein d’une région homogène, et diffèrent simplement par un facteur d’échelle spécifique à chaque site : "l’index de crue" Dalrymple (1960). Pour permettre cette hypothèse, les régions considérées sont constituées de bassins versants qui se ressemblent climatologiquement et qui ont des mécanismes de production de crues semblables. Ils sont susceptibles d’être géographiquement contigus. Les résultats sont bien valables à condition que les hypothèses sur lesquelles l’analyse régionale des crues se fonde soient vérifiées. Malgré l’extension des jeux de données permise par ces approches, les quantiles estimés peuvent cependant rester incertains, notamment pour les bassins versants relativement petits et exposés à des crues de grande variabilité inter-annuelle. Face à ce constat, Gaume et al. (2010) a proposé une méthode permettant d’incorporer au sein d’une analyse régionale des crues, en complément des séries hydrométriques, des informations relatives aux crues extrêmes observées sur des bassins non-jaugés. Ces crues extrêmes, parce qu’elles sont généralement les plus fortes connues sur une période assez longue, constituent l’équivalent d’une longue série d’enregistrements supplémentaires, qui est susceptible d’améliorer grandement la précision d’estimation des quantiles de crue. L’approche proposée pour incorporer ces données est toujours basée sur le principe de l’index de crue Dalrymple (1960). Toutefois, si une approche classique consiste à estimer l’index de crue par la moyenne de l’échantillon observé sur chaque site (Hosking and Wallis 1997), le calcul de cette moyenne n’est pas possible sur des sites non-jaugés. L’approche proposée par Gaume et al. (2010) consiste par conséquent à calibrer une relation d’index de crue, qui est une fonction des caractéristiques du bassin versant, sa surface en l’occurrence, et qui permet donc d’évaluer l’index de crue sur n’importe quel site non-jaugé. Le recours à cette relation d’index de crue représente une contrainte supplémentaire d’homogénéité de la région considérée, sensée respecter la relation théorique. Le complément de paramétrisation que représente cette relation (un paramètre supplémentaire), combinée à l’hypothèse d’homogénéité de la relation au sein de la région considérée, est susceptible de limiter les performances de cette approche, malgré le fait que des données supplémentaires correspondant aux crues extrêmes peuvent être mobilisées. Cette thèse a été l’occasion de tester et d’évaluer les performances de cette approche (nommée "approche proposée" par la suite), par comparaison à une approche d’analyse régionale plus conventionnelle, et ceci dans plusieurs contextes de disponibilité des données et d’hétérogénéité des régions considérées. Les travaux menés ont également permis d’intégrer des développements supplémentaires à l’approche initiale développée par Gaume et al. (2010).

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

38

MASOERO, ALESSANDRO. "Water Resources and Flood Hazard Assessment with Consideration of Anthropic Effects." Doctoral thesis, Politecnico di Torino, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/11583/2534513.

Full text

Abstract:

Studies on water resources are rarely developed in basins where anthropic impact is negligible; therefore, the flow values are seldom ''natural'' and are often significantly affected by the interference of human works. These alterations of the natural discharges can be due to the presence, along the river network, of interfering hydraulic structures. Interactions between these infrastructures and the natural streamflow are certainly in need of further attention. Two main issues have been studied here in detail: i) the impact on water availability and the variability caused by water abstractions and ii) the flood attenuation effect induced by existing reservoirs, that produces flood hazard mitigation downstream. When working in a regional analysis framework, input data and results should represent the natural conditions. Hence, the alterations due to hydraulics structures embedded into the river network should be removed or introduced carefully. For instance, regional estimates of flood peak discharges do not consider the flood attenuation operated by the existing reservoirs. Nevertheless dams have a significant impact, especially in the nearest areas downstream, that should be accounted for. For the Piemonte and Valle d'Aosta Regions, this flood peak attenuation effect has been studied in detail to provide a correct starting point for further flood hazard studies. On the other hand, to assess the impact of water abstractions on daily discharge data, basic indices of alterations have been defined and an innovative correction model to reconstruct the natural streamflow statistics has been proposed. Non-impacted discharge characteristics are needed to provide a correct regional estimate of water resources availability and, consequently, of the gross hydropower potential. For water use planning purposes or to define the residual hydropower potential, the correction model proposed can also be used backward, adding anthropic effects to non-impacted values of discharge. The relevance of the proposed approach and methods in regional analysis of extreme and average flows is something that can be better recognized only with the effort of systematically characterizing the infrastructures that interfere with the natural hydrology along the river network. The applications made in this work were made possible by a cooperative effort addressed to the realization of a comprehensive Hydrological and Infrastructures Information System for the Regione Piemonte, that constitutes an important laboratory for hydrological simulations in a real world of heavily altered natural processes.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

39

Hansell, Markus, and Panagiotis Tamtakos. "Dynamic analyses of hollow core slabs : Experimental and numerical analyses of an existing floor." Thesis, KTH, Bro- och stålbyggnad, 2020. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-278539.

Full text

Abstract:

For intermediate floors in residential and office buildings, as well as in parking garages and malls, there is a wide use of hollow core concrete slabs in Sweden today. Hollow core slabs are precast and prestressed concrete elements with cylindrical-shaped voids extending along the length of the slab. These structural elements have the advantage compared to cast-in-situ concrete slabs that they have a high strength, due to the prestressing, and that the voids allow for a lower self-weight. Additionally, the voids allow for a reduction in the use of concrete material. These characteristics offer possibilities to build long-span floors with slender designs. However, a consequence of the slenderness of the slabs is that such floors have an increased sensitivity to vibrations induced by various dynamic loads. In residential and office buildings vibrations are primarily caused by human activity, and therefore concerns related to the serviceability of such floors are raised. These vibrations are often not related to problems with structural integrity, but rather to different aspects of comfort of the residents or workers. The aim of this thesis is to provide additional information regarding the dynamic behavior of hollow core floors. An experimental modal analysis has been performed on an existing floor in an office building. The dynamic properties in the form of natural frequencies, mode shapes, damping ratios and frequency response functions were derived and analyzed from these measurements. Subsequently, several finite element models were developed, aiming to reproduce the experimental dynamic behavior of the studied floor. The measurements initially showed some unexpected dynamic responses of the floor. For this reason, more advanced methods of signal analyses were applied to the data. The analyses showed that the slab has some closely spaced modes and that the modes of the floor are complex to a certain degree. The finite element models were studied with different configurations. In particular, the effect the model size, boundary conditions, material properties and potential structural discontinuities have on the dynamic response of the slab was studied. Sufficiently good agreement has been achieved between the experimental and numerical results in terms of natural frequencies and mode shapes. The acceleration amplitude responses of the numerical models were generally higher than the ones obtained from the measurements, which leads to difficulties in matching of the frequency response functions.
Håldäck i betong används idag i stor utsträckning som bjälklag i bostads- och kontorsbyggnader, liksom i parkeringsgarage och köpcentra. Håldäcksbjälklag består av prefabricerade och förspända betongelement, med cylindriska hål som sträcker sig i plattans längsriktning. Dessa konstruktionselement har fördelen, jämfört med platsgjutna betongplattor, att de har en hög hållfasthet på grund av förspänningen och att hålen möjliggör en lägre egenvikt. Dessutom gör hålen att en mindre mängd betongmaterial behövs. Dessa egenskaper ger möjligheter att bygga golv med långa spännvidder och slank design. En konsekvens av slankheten är emellertid att sådana golv har en ökad känslighet för vibrationer som orsakas av olika dynamiska belastningar. I bostads- och kontorsbyggnader orsakas vibrationer främst av mänsklig aktivitet, och därför finns det en del oro relaterad till sådana golvs brukbarhet. Dessa vibrationer är oftast inte relaterade till frågor om strukturell integritet, utan snarare till olika aspekter av boendes eller arbetares känsla av komfort. Syftet med detta examensarbete är att bidra till kunskapen om håldäcksbjälklags dynamiska beteende. En experimentell modalanalys har utförts på ett befintligt golv i en kontorsbyggnad. De dynamiska egenskaperna i form av egenfrekvenser, modformer, dämpning och frekvenssvarsfunktioner erhölls och analyserades med hjälp av dessa mätningar. Därefter utvecklades flera finita element modeller för att reproducera det experimentellt uppmätta dynamiska beteendet hos det studerade golvet. Mätningarna visade initialt något oväntade dynamiska responser från golvet. Av denna anledning applicerades mer avancerade signalanalysmetoder på datan. Analyserna visade att plattan har några moder inom ett litet frekvensintervall och att moderna till en viss grad är komplexa. De finita element modellerna studerades med olika konfigurationer. I synnerhet studerades effekten av modellstorleken, randvillkoren, materialegenskaperna och potentiella strukturella diskontinuiteter på golvets dynamiska respons. Tillräckligt bra överensstämmelse har uppnåtts mellan de experimentella och numeriska resultaten i form av egenfrekvenser och modformer. Accelerationsamplituderna för de numeriska modellerna var i allmänhet högre än de som erhölls under mätningarna, vilket leder till svårigheter att matcha frekvenssvarsfunktionerna.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

40

Harmachova, Karolina. "Vibration performance of hybrid steel-CLT floors." Thesis, KTH, Byggnadsmaterial, 2016. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:kth:diva-192475.

Full text

Abstract:

In the light of today’s effort to achieve sustainable future of the planet, timber as building material makes a comeback on the construction market. Since the requirements on the buildings and the internal comfort increase, there is a need for finding new solutions and products; one of them is cross-laminated timber (CLT), which has the potential to be used for high-rise buildings due to its mechanical properties. The aim of this work was to study the vibration performance of CLT floors as it is often the governing factor in design of CLT structures unlike for other common building materials. The orthotropic mechanical properties of CLT were determined by the shear analogy method and verified with a finite element (FE) model of a simply supported beam compared to hand calculations of shear forces, bending moments and deflections. The properties based on Timoshenko’s approach were evaluated as less precise regarding the deflection. The non-composite structural behaviour of a steel-CLT hybrid floor structure was predicted for FE dynamic analysis based on a comparison between modelling exercise and hand calculations. Two different methods, the Concrete Society (SC) and Steel Construction Institution (SCI) methods, both seemed to be applicable for determination of the response factor first since the mechanical properties are not used as input in the calculations. These two methods differ in certain aspects, and based on FE analysis of simply supported slab even the resulting response factor for the CLT differs significantly. Moreover, the hand calculation results were similar to those of the FE analysis for the CS method, but in less agreement for the SCI method. Nevertheless, it is not recommended to reject the latter method based on this study and further studies should be performed on real structures with response factor known from on-site measurements. A part of the first floor of Canary Wharf College was modelled and analysed, and previous measurements of the frequency and response factors enabled a validation of some assumptions. The SCI approach showed to be inadequate for this type of structure and therefore only the CS method was applied further. Analysis of the floor structures supported by walls demonstrated similar results from both the measurements and the dynamic analysis. However, if the floor slab was supported by beams, the response factor was significantly overestimated although on the conservative side. This difference suggests that the modelling of such conditions are not satisfactory. The CS method appears to assess correctly the magnitude of the response factor for CLT floors supported by walls but overestimates it in case of beam supports. The first finding shall be confirmed through analysis of other structures and a more extensive research should focus on the latter one to determine more exact behaviour of the model under different conditions.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

41

Barrett, Anthony R. "Dynamic Testing of In-Situ Composite Floors and Evaluation of Vibration Serviceability Using the Finite Element Method." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2006. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/28879.

Full text

Abstract:

The presented research examined three areas: best practices in high quality dynamic testing of in-situ floor systems, extensive dynamic testing of three bare (non-fit out) in-situ multi-bay steel composite floors to estimate their dynamic parameters/response and to identify trends in dynamic behavior, and development of a set of fundamental finite element (FE) modeling techniques to adequately represent the dynamic response of steel composite floors for the purpose of evaluating vibration serviceability. The measurement, analysis, and computation of a floor's accelerance frequency response function (FRF) is the core premise linking all areas of the presented research. The burst chirp signal using an electrodynamic shaker is recommended as the most accurate and consistent source of excitation for acquiring high quality measurements suitable for use in parameter estimation, operating deflection shape animation, and calibration/validation of FE models. A reduced mid-bay testing scheme is recommended as a time-saving alternative to modal testing over a full coverage area, provided the only desired estimated parameters are frequencies, damping, and mid-bay acceleration response. Accelerance FRFs were measured with an electrodynamic shaker located within 23 unique bays on the three tested floors. Dominant frequencies ranged from 4.85 Hz to 9 Hz and measured estimates of damping varied considerably, ranging from 0.44% to 2.4% of critical (0.5%-1.15% was typical). Testing showed several mode shapes were localized to just a few bays and not all modes were adequately excited by forcing at a single location. The quality of the estimated mode shapes was significantly improved using multi-reference modal testing. FE models for the tested floors were developed based on high quality measured data and were shown to provide adequate representations of measured floor behavior. Fundamental techniques are presented for modeling mass, stiffness, boundary conditions, and performing dynamic analysis. A method of evaluating vibration serviceability was proposed using the FE model's computed accelerance FRF for comparison with a design accelerance curve that represents an acceleration response threshold in the frequency domain. An example design accelerance curve is presented based on current serviceability guidelines for acceleration tolerance and effective harmonic forces due to human activities such as walking.
Ph. D.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

42

Liu, Di. "VIBRATION OF STEEL-FRAMED FLOORS SUPPORTING SENSITIVE EQUIPMENT IN HOSPITALS, RESEARCH FACILITIES, AND MANUFACTURING FACILITIES." UKnowledge, 2015. http://uknowledge.uky.edu/ce_etds/34.

Full text

Abstract:

Floors have traditionally been designed only for strength and deflection serviceability. As technological advances have been made in medical, scientific and micro-electronics manufacturing, many types of equipment have become sensitive to vibration of the supporting floor. Thus, vibration serviceability has become a routinely evaluated limit state for floors supporting sensitive equipment. Equipment vibration tolerance limits are sometimes expressed as waveform peak acceleration, and are more often expressed as narrowband spectral acceleration, or one-third octave spectral velocity. Current floor vibration prediction methods, such as those found in the American Institute of Steel Construction Design Guide 11, Floor Vibrations Due to Human Activity, the British Steel Construction Institute P354, Design of Floors for Vibration: a New Approach and the British Concrete Centre CCIP-016 A Design Guide for Footfall Induced Vibration of Structures, have limitations. It has been observed that non-structural components such as light-weight partitions could significantly change floor dynamic properties. Current prediction methods do not provide a fundamental frequency manual prediction method nor finite element modeling guidance for floors with non-structural components. Current prediction methods only predict waveform peak acceleration and do not provide predictions for frequency domain response including narrowband spectral acceleration or one-third octave spectral velocity. Also, current methods are not calibrated to provide a specific level of conservatism. This research project provides (1) a fundamental frequency manual prediction method for floors with lightweight partitions; (2) an improved finite element modeling procedure for floors with light-weight partitions; (3) a procedure to predict the vibration response in narrow-band spectrum and one-third octave band spectrum which can be directly compared with vibration tolerance limits; and (4) a simplified experimental procedure to estimate the floor natural frequencies. An experimental program including four steel-framed building floors and a concrete was completed. Modal tests were performed on two of the steel-framed buildings and the concrete building using an electrodynamic shaker. Experimental modal analysis techniques were used to estimate the modal properties: natural frequencies, mode shapes, and damping ratios. Responses to walking excitation were measured several times in each tested bay for individuals walking at different walking speeds. During each test, the walker crossed the middle of the bay using a metronome to help maintain the intended cadence. The proposed method was used to predict the modal properties and responses to walking. The measurements are used to assess the precision of the proposed methods and to calibrate the prediction methods to provide a specific probability that the actual response will exceed the predicted response. Comparison of measurements and predictions shows the proposed methods are sufficiently accurate for design usage.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

43

Avci, Onur. "Effects of Bottom Chord Extensions on the Static and Dynamic Performance of Steel Joist Supported Floors." Diss., Virginia Tech, 2005. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/29432.

Full text

Abstract:

The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of bottom chord extensions on deflections and vibration characteristics of joist supported floor systems when joist bottom chord extensions are installed. To understand the effect of bottom chord extensions on deflections, natural frequency, damping, mode shape and effective mass, extensive analytical and experimental studies were conducted on single span and three span joist supported laboratory footbridges with different bottom chord extension configurations. Finite element computer models were created to simulate and compare the results of stiffness and vibration tests. Testing was done with a) the bottom chord extensions in-place before the concrete was placed, b) with all or part of the bottom chord extensions removed, and c) after the bottom chord extensions had been reinstalled with jacking for the single span footbridge and without jacking for the three-span footbridge. Results from the stiffness tests indicate that re-installing the bottom chord extensions to the joists of the single span footbridge with cured concrete with the center of the span raised helps to reduce the uniform load deflections to some extent, but not as much as placing the bottom chord extensions before the concrete placement. Likewise, for the three span footbridge, placing the bottom chord extensions before the concrete placement is observed to be a better solution. Results from the dynamic tests indicate that the effect of bottom chord extensions on the single span footbridge is consistent for natural frequency, 20 psf live load deflections, sinusoidal excitations with high amplitudes, quarter point heel drop excitations, walking excitations, and effective mass values. The effect of bottom chord extensions on the three span footbridge is consistent for the natural frequency and 20 psf deflections. However, the FRF (Frequency Response Function) peaks of chirp, heel drop, sinusoidal excitations, accelerations from walking data, and the MEScope and Finite Element model effective mass results do not follow a common trend. It can be concluded that even though the footbridge was stiffened by the bottom chord extensions, that does not necessarily mean that the acceleration levels, and hence the frequency response function peaks, decrease. However, bottom chord extensions do increase the natural frequencies for all the three governing bending modes.
Ph. D.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

44

Gozzi, David. "Hydrometeorological extremes in the Adige river basin, Italy." Thesis, Uppsala universitet, Luft-, vatten och landskapslära, 2018. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-349069.

Full text

Abstract:

This study aimed at describing the characteristics of daily precipitation and discharge extremes in the Adige river basin at the city of Trento. Annual maximum series for the period 1975−2014 were analyzed in terms of trends, seasonality indices and L-moments. A Mann-Kendall trend analysis showed a weak but significant signal of decreasing ex-tremes; the percentages of sites with significant negative trends were overall larger than the significance levels. Precipitation extremes were characterized primarily by autumn storms, while floods had a stronger seasonality with peaks occurring predominantly in June and July which indicated that the timing not solely explained by rainfall maxima. The Adige basin was found to be a homogenous region with respect to precipitation, but the results did not support a corresponding assumption for discharge. A regional fre-quency analysis was performed for precipitation data and found both the Pearson type III and generalized normal distributions to be adequate regional frequency distributions. The extreme daily precipitation at Trento with a 100-year return period was estimated to be between 114 and 148 mm/d.
Egenskaperna hos extremvärden av dygnsnederbörd och -vattenföring i Adigeflodens av-rinningsområde vid staden Trento undersöktes. Serier med årsmaxima för perioden 1975–2014 analyserades med avseende på trender, säsongsindex och L-moment. Trendanalys med Mann-Kendallmetod antydde en svag men signifikant signal om minskande extrem-värden, då andelen mätstationer med signifikant negativa trender överlag var större än signifikansnivån. Den extrema nederbörden karakteriserades huvudsakligen av höststor-mar, medan vattenföringen hade en starkare säsongsbundenhet då maxima inträffade främst under juni och juli. Vattenföringens extremvärden kunde därmed inte enbart för-klaras av nederbördsmaxima. Avrinningsområdet kunde betraktas som en homogen reg-ion för nederbörd, men resultaten gav inte stöd åt ett motsvarande antagande för vatten-föring. En regional frekvensanalys genomfördes för nederbördsdata och visade att Pear-son typ III och den generaliserade normalfördelningen var lämpliga regionala sannolik-hetsfördelningar. Över Trento uppskattades den extrema dygnsnederbörden med en åter-komstperiod på 100 år till mellan 114 och 148 mm/d.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

45

SIVORI, DANIELE. "Ambient vibration tools supporting the model-based seismic assessment of existing buildings." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Genova, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/11567/1045713.

Full text

Abstract:

The technological advancements of the last decades are making dynamic monitoring an efficient and widespread resource to investigate the safety and health of engineering structures. In the wake of these developments, the thesis proposes methodological tools supporting the seismic assessment of existing buildings through the use of ambient vibration tests. In this context, the literature highlights considerable room to broaden the ongoing research, especially regarding masonry buildings. The recent earthquakes, once again, highlighted the significant vulnerability of this structural typology as an important part of our built heritage, remarking the importance of risk mitigation strategies for the territorial scale. The thesis builds upon a simplified methodology recently proposed in the literature, conceived to assess the post-seismic serviceability of strategic buildings based on their operational modal parameters. The original contributions of the work pursue the theoretical and numerical validation of its basic simplifying assumptions, in structural modelling – such as the in-plane rigid behaving floor diaphragms – and seismic analysis – related to the nonlinear fundamental frequency variations induced by earthquakes. These strategies are commonly employed in the seismic assessment of existing buildings, but require further developments for masonry buildings. The novel proposal of the thesis takes advantage of ambient vibration data to establish direct and inverse mechanical problems in the frequency domain targeted at, first, qualitatively distinguishing between rigid and nonrigid behaving diaphragms and, second, quantitatively identifying their in-plane shear stiffness, mechanical feature playing a primary role in the seismic behaviour of masonry buildings. The application of these tools to real case studies points out their relevance in the updating and validation of structural models for seismic assessment purposes. In the light of these achievements, a model-based computational framework is proposed to develop frequency decay-damage control charts for masonry buildings, which exploit ambient vibration measurements for quick damage evaluations in post-earthquake scenarios. The results of the simulations, finally, highlight the generally conservative nature of ambient vibration-based simplified methodologies, confirming their suitability for the serviceability assessment of existing masonry buildings.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

46

Santhosh, D. "Frequency Analysis of Floods - A Nanoparametric Approach." Thesis, 2013. http://etd.iisc.ac.in/handle/2005/3426.

Full text

Abstract:

Floods cause widespread damage to property and life in different parts of the world. Hence there is a paramount need to develop effective methods for design flood estimation to alleviate risk associated with these extreme hydrologic events. Methods that are conventionally considered for analysis of floods focus on estimation of continuous frequency relationship between peak flow observed at a location and its corresponding exceedance probability depicting the plausible conditions in the planning horizon. These methods are commonly known as at-site flood frequency analysis (FFA) procedures. The available FFA procedures can be classified as parametric and nonparametric. Parametric methods are based on the assumption that sample (at-site data) is drawn from a population with known probability density function (PDF). Those procedures have uncertainty associated with the choice of PDF and the method for estimation of its parameters. Moreover, parametric methods are ineffective in modeling flood data if multimodality is evident in their PDF. To overcome those artifacts, a few studies attempted using kernel based nonparametric (NP) methods as an alternative to parametric methods. The NP methods are data driven and they can characterize the uncertainty in data without prior assumptions as to the form of the PDF. Conventional kernel methods have shortcomings associated with boundary leakage problem and normal reference rule (considered for estimation of bandwidth), which have implications on flood quantile estimates. To alleviate this problem, focus of NP flood frequency analysis has been on development of new kernel density estimators (kdes). Another issue in FFA is that information on the whole hydrograph (e.g., time to the peak flow, volume of the flood flow and duration of the flood event) is needed, in addition to peak flow for certain applications. An option is to perform frequency analysis on each of the variables independently. However, these variables are not independent, and hence there is a need to perform multivariate analysis to construct multivariate PDFs and use the corresponding cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) to arrive at estimates of characteristics of design flood hydrograph. In this perspective, recent focus of flood frequency analysis studies has been on development of methods to derive joint distributions of flood hydrograph related variables in a nonparametric setting. Further, in real world scenario, it is often necessary to estimate design flood quantiles at target locations that have limited or no data. Regional Flood Frequency analysis (RFFA) procedures have been developed for use in such situations. These procedures involve use of a regionalization procedure for identification of a homogeneous group of watersheds that are similar to watershed of the target site in terms of flood response. Subsequently regional frequency analysis (RFA) is performed, wherein the information pooled from the group (region) forms basis for frequency analysis to construct a CDF (growth curve) that is subsequently used to arrive at quantile estimates at the target site. Though there are various procedures for RFFA, they are largely confined to only univariate framework considering a parametric approach as the basis to arrive at required quantile estimates. Motivated by these findings, this thesis concerns development of a linear diffusion process based adaptive kernel density estimator (D-kde) based methodologies for at-site as well as regional FFA in univariate as well as bivariate settings. The D-kde alleviates boundary leakage problem and also avoids normal reference rule while estimating optimal bandwidth by using Botev-Grotowski-Kroese estimator (BGKE). Potential of the proposed methodologies in both univariate and bivariate settings is demonstrated by application to synthetic data sets of various sizes drawn from known unimodal and bimodal parametric populations, and to real world data sets from India, USA, United Kingdom and Canada. In the context of at-site univariate FFA (considering peak flows), the performance of D- kde was found to be better when compared to four parametric distribution based methods (Generalized extreme value, Generalized logistic, Generalized Pareto, Generalized Normal), thirty-two ‘kde and bandwidth estimator’ combinations that resulted from application of four commonly used kernels in conjunction with eight bandwidth estimators, and a local polynomial–based estimator. In the context of at-site bivariate FFA considering ‘peakflow-flood volume’ and ‘flood duration-flood volume’ bivariate combinations, the proposed D-kde based methodology was shown to be effective when compared to commonly used seven copulas (Gumbel-Hougaard, Frank, Clayton, Joe, Normal, Plackett, and student’s-T copulas) and Gaussian kernel in conjunction with conventional as well as BGKE bandwidth estimators. Sensitivity analysis indicated that selection of optimum number of bins is critical in implementing D-kde in bivariate setting. In the context of univariate regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) considering peak flows, a methodology based on D-kde and Index-flood methods is proposed and its performance is shown to be better when compared to that of widely used L-moment and Index-flood based method (‘regional L-moment algorithm’) through Monte-Carlo simulation experiments on homogeneous as well as heterogeneous synthetic regions, and through leave-one-out cross validation experiment performed on data sets pertaining to 54 watersheds in Godavari river basin, India. In this context, four homogeneous groups of watersheds are delineated in Godavari river basin using kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) in conjunction with Fuzzy c-means cluster analysis in L-moment framework, as an improvement over heterogeneous regions in the area (river basin) that are currently being considered by Central Water Commission, India. In the context of bivariate RFFA two methods are proposed. They involve forming site-specific pooling groups (regions) based on either L-moment based bivariate homogeneity test (R-BHT) or bivariate Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (R-BKS), and RFA based on D-kde. Their performance is assessed by application to data sets pertaining to stations in the conterminous United States. Results indicate that the R-BKS method is better than R-BHT in predicting quantiles of bivariate flood characteristics at ungauged sites, although the size of pooling groups formed using R-BKS is, in general, smaller than size of those formed using R-BHT. In general, the performance of the methods is found to improve with increase in size of pooling groups. Overall the results indicate that the D-kde always yields bona fide PDF (and CDF) in the context of univariate as well as bivariate flood frequency analysis, as probability density is nonnegative for all data points and integrates to unity for the valid range of the data. The performance of D-kde based at-site as well as regional FFA methodologies is found to be effective in univariate as well as bivariate settings, irrespective of the nature of population and sample size. A primary assumption underlying conventional FFA procedures has been that the time series of peak flow is stationarity (temporally homogeneous). However, recent studies carried out in various parts of the World question the assumption of flood stationarity. In this perspective, Time Varying Gaussian Copula (TVGC) based methodology is proposed in the thesis for flood frequency analysis in bivariate setting, which allows relaxing the assumption of stationarity in flood related variables. It is shown to be effective than seven commonly used stationary copulas through Monte-Carlo simulation experiments and by application to data sets pertaining to stations in the conterminous United States for which null hypothesis that peak flow data were non-stationary cannot be rejected.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

47

Santhosh, D. "Frequency Analysis of Floods - A Nanoparametric Approach." Thesis, 2013. http://etd.iisc.ernet.in/2005/3426.

Full text

Abstract:

Floods cause widespread damage to property and life in different parts of the world. Hence there is a paramount need to develop effective methods for design flood estimation to alleviate risk associated with these extreme hydrologic events. Methods that are conventionally considered for analysis of floods focus on estimation of continuous frequency relationship between peak flow observed at a location and its corresponding exceedance probability depicting the plausible conditions in the planning horizon. These methods are commonly known as at-site flood frequency analysis (FFA) procedures. The available FFA procedures can be classified as parametric and nonparametric. Parametric methods are based on the assumption that sample (at-site data) is drawn from a population with known probability density function (PDF). Those procedures have uncertainty associated with the choice of PDF and the method for estimation of its parameters. Moreover, parametric methods are ineffective in modeling flood data if multimodality is evident in their PDF. To overcome those artifacts, a few studies attempted using kernel based nonparametric (NP) methods as an alternative to parametric methods. The NP methods are data driven and they can characterize the uncertainty in data without prior assumptions as to the form of the PDF. Conventional kernel methods have shortcomings associated with boundary leakage problem and normal reference rule (considered for estimation of bandwidth), which have implications on flood quantile estimates. To alleviate this problem, focus of NP flood frequency analysis has been on development of new kernel density estimators (kdes). Another issue in FFA is that information on the whole hydrograph (e.g., time to the peak flow, volume of the flood flow and duration of the flood event) is needed, in addition to peak flow for certain applications. An option is to perform frequency analysis on each of the variables independently. However, these variables are not independent, and hence there is a need to perform multivariate analysis to construct multivariate PDFs and use the corresponding cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) to arrive at estimates of characteristics of design flood hydrograph. In this perspective, recent focus of flood frequency analysis studies has been on development of methods to derive joint distributions of flood hydrograph related variables in a nonparametric setting. Further, in real world scenario, it is often necessary to estimate design flood quantiles at target locations that have limited or no data. Regional Flood Frequency analysis (RFFA) procedures have been developed for use in such situations. These procedures involve use of a regionalization procedure for identification of a homogeneous group of watersheds that are similar to watershed of the target site in terms of flood response. Subsequently regional frequency analysis (RFA) is performed, wherein the information pooled from the group (region) forms basis for frequency analysis to construct a CDF (growth curve) that is subsequently used to arrive at quantile estimates at the target site. Though there are various procedures for RFFA, they are largely confined to only univariate framework considering a parametric approach as the basis to arrive at required quantile estimates. Motivated by these findings, this thesis concerns development of a linear diffusion process based adaptive kernel density estimator (D-kde) based methodologies for at-site as well as regional FFA in univariate as well as bivariate settings. The D-kde alleviates boundary leakage problem and also avoids normal reference rule while estimating optimal bandwidth by using Botev-Grotowski-Kroese estimator (BGKE). Potential of the proposed methodologies in both univariate and bivariate settings is demonstrated by application to synthetic data sets of various sizes drawn from known unimodal and bimodal parametric populations, and to real world data sets from India, USA, United Kingdom and Canada. In the context of at-site univariate FFA (considering peak flows), the performance of D- kde was found to be better when compared to four parametric distribution based methods (Generalized extreme value, Generalized logistic, Generalized Pareto, Generalized Normal), thirty-two ‘kde and bandwidth estimator’ combinations that resulted from application of four commonly used kernels in conjunction with eight bandwidth estimators, and a local polynomial–based estimator. In the context of at-site bivariate FFA considering ‘peakflow-flood volume’ and ‘flood duration-flood volume’ bivariate combinations, the proposed D-kde based methodology was shown to be effective when compared to commonly used seven copulas (Gumbel-Hougaard, Frank, Clayton, Joe, Normal, Plackett, and student’s-T copulas) and Gaussian kernel in conjunction with conventional as well as BGKE bandwidth estimators. Sensitivity analysis indicated that selection of optimum number of bins is critical in implementing D-kde in bivariate setting. In the context of univariate regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) considering peak flows, a methodology based on D-kde and Index-flood methods is proposed and its performance is shown to be better when compared to that of widely used L-moment and Index-flood based method (‘regional L-moment algorithm’) through Monte-Carlo simulation experiments on homogeneous as well as heterogeneous synthetic regions, and through leave-one-out cross validation experiment performed on data sets pertaining to 54 watersheds in Godavari river basin, India. In this context, four homogeneous groups of watersheds are delineated in Godavari river basin using kernel principal component analysis (KPCA) in conjunction with Fuzzy c-means cluster analysis in L-moment framework, as an improvement over heterogeneous regions in the area (river basin) that are currently being considered by Central Water Commission, India. In the context of bivariate RFFA two methods are proposed. They involve forming site-specific pooling groups (regions) based on either L-moment based bivariate homogeneity test (R-BHT) or bivariate Kolmogorov-Smirnov test (R-BKS), and RFA based on D-kde. Their performance is assessed by application to data sets pertaining to stations in the conterminous United States. Results indicate that the R-BKS method is better than R-BHT in predicting quantiles of bivariate flood characteristics at ungauged sites, although the size of pooling groups formed using R-BKS is, in general, smaller than size of those formed using R-BHT. In general, the performance of the methods is found to improve with increase in size of pooling groups. Overall the results indicate that the D-kde always yields bona fide PDF (and CDF) in the context of univariate as well as bivariate flood frequency analysis, as probability density is nonnegative for all data points and integrates to unity for the valid range of the data. The performance of D-kde based at-site as well as regional FFA methodologies is found to be effective in univariate as well as bivariate settings, irrespective of the nature of population and sample size. A primary assumption underlying conventional FFA procedures has been that the time series of peak flow is stationarity (temporally homogeneous). However, recent studies carried out in various parts of the World question the assumption of flood stationarity. In this perspective, Time Varying Gaussian Copula (TVGC) based methodology is proposed in the thesis for flood frequency analysis in bivariate setting, which allows relaxing the assumption of stationarity in flood related variables. It is shown to be effective than seven commonly used stationary copulas through Monte-Carlo simulation experiments and by application to data sets pertaining to stations in the conterminous United States for which null hypothesis that peak flow data were non-stationary cannot be rejected.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

48

Lin, Po-Chiang, and 林柏強. "Flood frequency analysis in ungauged areas." Thesis, 2008. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/76647019350677392271.

Full text

Abstract:

碩士
國立臺灣海洋大學
河海工程學系
96
Considering the engineering safety and economy, the design discharge for water resources engineering is relied on the results of the flood frequency analysis. Since a large number of discharge records are needed in current frequency analysis methods, the methods are impracticable for watershed lacking of discharge records. For this reason, the objective of this study is to provide a suitable frequency analysis method for discharge in watershed lacking of enough hydrological records and to estimate the design discharge for agricultural water resources engineering. In this study, two flood frequency analysis schemes, namely, the index flood method coupled with L-moment method and the kinematic-wave-based geomorphologic instantaneous unit hydrograph (KW－GIUH) method using rainfall record as input, were applied to estimate the flood peak for different return periods. Hydrologic records from twenty-four watersheds in northern Taiwan were adopted to validate the proposed analytical procedure. The results indicate that the index flood method can provide accurate estimations for flood peak in low return period cases but causes apparent errors in high return period cases. On the contrary, the KW-GIUH model can have good estimations for flood peaks in high return period cases than those in low return period cases.

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

49

Bradley, Austin Allen. "Flood frequency analysis of simulated flows." 1992. http://catalog.hathitrust.org/api/volumes/oclc/28648255.html.

Full text

Abstract:

Thesis (Ph. D.)--University of Wisconsin--Madison, 1992.
Typescript. eContent provider-neutral record in process. Description based on print version record. Includes bibliographical references (leaves 219-225).

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

50

TSO, CHENG-HSIU, and 左承修. "STUDY ON REGIONAL FLOOD FREQUENCY ANALYSIS." Thesis, 1997. http://ndltd.ncl.edu.tw/handle/04540829625327438890.

Full text

APA, Harvard, Vancouver, ISO, and other styles

Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Flood frequency analysis'

Create a spot-on reference in APA, MLA, Chicago, Harvard, and other styles