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Thieken, Annegret Henriette. "Floods, flood losses and flood risk management in Germany." Thesis, Universität Potsdam, 2009. http://opus.kobv.de/ubp/volltexte/2009/2916/.
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Die vorliegende Habilitation beschäftigt sich mit verschiedenen Aspekten des Hochwasserrisikos in Deutschland. In zwölf Artikeln werden neue wissenschaftliche Erkenntnisse über Hochwassergefahren, über Faktoren, die Hochwasserschäden beeinflussen, sowie über effektive private Vorsorgemaßnahmen präsentiert.
So wird die jahreszeitliche Verteilung von Hochwasser in ganz Deutschland gezeigt. Weiterhin werden mögliche Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf Abflussverhältnisse und Häufigkeiten von Hochwasserereignissen am Beispiel des Rhein-Einzugsgebietes abgeschätzt. Ferner wird am Niederrhein simuliert, welche Auswirkungen Deichbrüche haben können.
Hochwasserschäden stehen im zweiten Teil der Arbeit im Fokus: Nach dem August-Hochwasser 2002 wurden ca. 1700 Privathaushalte telefonisch befragt. Damit konnten die Einflüsse verschiedener Faktoren, wie der Überflutungsdauer oder der Verunreinigung des Hochwassers mit Öl, auf die Höhe von finanziellen Schäden quantifiziert werden. Daraus ist zum einen ein neues Modell entstanden, mit dem Hochwasserschäden großräumig berechnet werden können. Zum anderen konnten Hinweise für die Verbesserung der privaten Vorsorge abgeleitet werden. Beispielsweise zeigte sich, dass versicherte Haushalte schneller und besser entschädigt werden als Nicht-Versicherte. Ebenfalls wurde deutlich, dass verschiedene Bevölkerungsgruppen, wie Mieter und Hauseigentümer, unterschiedliche Möglichkeiten haben, Vorsorge zu betreiben. Dies ist zukünftig in der Risikokommunikation zu berücksichtigen.
In den Jahren 2005 und 2006 waren Elbe und Donau wiederum von Hochwasser betroffen. Eine erneute Befragung von Privathaushalten und Behörden ermöglichte, die Verbesserung des Hochwasserrisikomanagement und der Vorsorge am Beispiel der Stadt Dresden zu untersuchen.
Viele Methoden und Erkenntnisse dieser Arbeit sind in der wasserwirtschaftlichen Praxis anwendbar und tragen somit zur Verbesserung der Hochwasserrisikoanalyse und des Risikomanagements in Deutschland bei.This thesis deals with different aspects of flood risk in Germany. In twelve papers new scientific findings about flood hazards, factors that influence flood losses as well as effective private precautionary measures are presented. The seasonal distribution of flooding is shown for the whole of Germany. Furthermore, possible impacts of climate change on discharge and flood frequencies are estimated for the catchment of the river Rhine. Moreover, it is simulated at reaches of the Lower Rhine, which effects may result from levee breaches. Flood losses are the focus of the second part of the thesis: After the flood in August 2002 approximately 1700 households were interviewed by telephone. By this, it was possible to quantify the influence of different factors such as flood duration or the contamination of the flood water with oil on the extent of financial flood damage. On this basis, a new model was derived, by which flood losses can be calculated on a large scale. On the other hand, it was possible to derive recommendations for the improvement of private precaution. For example, the analysis revealed that insured households were compensated more quickly and to a better degree than uninsured. It became also clear that different groups like tenants and homeowners have different capabilities of performing precaution. This is to be considered in future risk communication. In 2005 and 2006, the rivers Elbe and Danube were again affected by flooding. A renewed pool among households and public authorities enabled us to investigate the improvement of flood risk management and the precaution in the City of Dresden. Several methods and finding of this thesis are applicable for water resources management issues and contribute to an improvement of flood risk analysis and management in Germany.
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O'Hara, M. "Floods, flood damage and flood risk assessment in tropical environments : A Jamaican case study." Thesis, University of Exeter, 1988. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.232974.
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Summa, Chad W. "Is the Black Sea flood Noah's flood?" Online full text .pdf document, available to Fuller patrons only, 2004. http://www.tren.com.
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Cook, Brian Robert. "Knowledges, controversies and floods : national-scale flood management in Bangladesh." Thesis, Durham University, 2010. http://etheses.dur.ac.uk/371/.
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This research explores the views, beliefs and knowledges of experts responsible for flood management in Bangladesh. As one of the most disaster-prone nations on Earth, and in response to the neglect of power-holding experts within the existing literature, this project analyses the differences between academic accounts of flooding, labelled the ‘prevailing understanding’, and the local expertise of those responsible for management. Relative to the entrenched narrative, local experts are surveyed and an alternate interpretation is constructed using their knowledge. This combination of textual and perception-based analyses accounts for the complex interrelations between competing forms of knowing. It is on this juxtaposition that the research contributes to new knowledge. The thesis is based on research conducted in Bangladesh between November 2007 and March 2008. To accomplish its objectives, using prominent debates as entry points, academic and government sources are used to account for the lineage of the prevailing understanding. On the basis of this narrative, qualitative interviews with 54 experts explore the construction of flood management knowledge and its relationship with decision making. The experts describe and justify understandings of flood management that are contextual, adaptive and indefinite, challenging many of the assumptions associated with the prevailing understanding. The findings inform several findings: that individuals close to the poverty line are uniquely vulnerable; that disasters merge with management to produce second-generation events; and that a hybrid socio-physical context is both a product and a producer of flood management knowledge. Overall, despite the already complex issue of flooding, managers in Bangladesh consider increasingly issues as diverse as poverty, environmental sustainability and economic and human development. Given the scope of the controversy surrounding flood management, the findings show how analyses of competing knowledges, assumptions and framings can aid the interrogation of prevailing knowledge to generate original findings
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Fayegh, A. David. "Flood advisor : an expert system for flood estimation." Thesis, University of British Columbia, 1985. http://hdl.handle.net/2429/25069.
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Expert computer programs have recently emerged from research on artificial intelligence as a practical problem-solving tool. An expert system is a knowledge-based program that imitates the problem-solving behaviour of a human expert to solve complex real-world problems. While conventional programs organize knowledge on two levels: data and program, most expert programs organize knowledge on three levels: data, knowledge base, and control. Thus, what distinguishes such a system from conventional programs is that in most expert systems the problem solving model is treated as a separate entity rather than appearing only implicitly as part of the coding of the program.
The purpose of this thesis is twofold. First, it is intended to demonstrate how domain-specific problem-solving knowledge may be represented in computer memory by using the frame representation technique. Secondly, it is intended to simulate a typical flood estimation situation, from the point-of-view of an expert engineer. A frame network was developed to represent, in data structures, the declarative, procedural, and heuristic knowledge necessary for solving a typical flow estimation problem. The control strategy of this computer-based consultant (FLOOD ADVISOR) relies on the concept that reasoning is dominated by a recognition process which is used to compare new instances of a given phenomena to the stereotyped conceptual framework used in understanding that phenomena. The primary purpose of the FLOOD ADVISOR is to provide interactive advice about the flow estimation technique most suitable to one of five generalized real-world situations. These generalizations are based primarily on the type and quantity of the data and resources available to the engineer. They are used to demonstrate how problem solving knowledge may be used to interactively assist the engineer in making difficult decisions. The expertise represented in this prototype system is far from complete and the recommended solution procedures for each generalized case are in their infancy. However, modifications may be easily implemented as the domain-specific expert knowledge becomes available. It is concluded that over the long term, this type of approach for building problem-solving models of the real world are computationally cheaper and easier to develop and maintain than conventional computer programs.Applied Science, Faculty of
Civil Engineering, Department of
Graduate
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McCord, Virgil Alexander Stuart. "Augmenting flood frequency estimates using flood-scarred trees." Diss., The University of Arizona, 1990. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/185017.
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Flood-damaged trees along streams and rivers in 20 localities in Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah were examined to assess the feasibility of reconstructing the frequency and magnitude of floods over the last several hundred years. Tree-ring dating of the flood damage produced evidence for 17 floods during the last 125 years, and for at least four floods prior to 1866. Most of the flood-scar dates from the historic period were found to coincide with the dates of major floods on the waterways from which they were collected, or from nearby streams. Flood damage to trees was found to be very abundant and accessible, with the most productive situation probably being that of seasonal streambeds in narrow deep canyons with relatively steep gradients. Amount of effort required to produce a flood chronology appears to be relatively small. Collections at most sites involved sampling from 1 to 5 trees, by extracting 3 to 6 increment cores from each visibly scarred tree, and 2 cores from undamaged trees to facilitate crossdating. At two sites larger collections were made, including 3 cross sections (V-cuts), which were very helpful in establishing dates of scars. For a given channel gradient, scars seem to develop only when the flood depth is above a particular threshold level. This threshold was defined by plotting scar height for scarred trees and flow depth for other floods not producing scars against the logarithm of channel slope. The scarred and unscarred individual points were separated into two well-defined fields, separated by a fairly straight line. Discriminant function analysis showed the separation to be highly significant, and classification of individual points as scarred or unscarred was usually correct. The implication of the scar threshold is that even in drainages with no gage or historical record at all, the presence or absence of flood scars on channelside trees would indicate the occurrence or nonoccurrence of floods of a certain depth over the lifetime of the trees. Basin analysis and field measurements of appropriate channel characteristics would allow this depth and the corresponding discharge to be calculated.
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Sun, Hongyong. "Investigation of flood probability and regionalization." Ohio : Ohio University, 1992. http://www.ohiolink.edu/etd/view.cgi?ohiou1173275342.
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Bagwell, Anne Marina. "A synoptically guided approach to determining suburbanization's impacts on the hydrology of the Red and White Clay Creeks, Pennsylvania and Delaware /." Access to citation, abstract and download form provided by ProQuest Information and Learning Company; downloadable PDF file, 169 p, 2008. http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1459905411&sid=7&Fmt=2&clientId=8331&RQT=309&VName=PQD.
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Zamora-Reyes, Diana. "Relevance of Flood Heterogeneity to Flood Frequency in Arizona." Thesis, The University of Arizona, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/347093.
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In the United States, the flood frequency analysis guidelines described in Bulletin 17B are followed to provide reliable flood discharge magnitude estimates for urban floodplain planning and flood insurance studies. The statistical analysis in Bulletin 17B has various assumptions, including that floods are generated by the same type of atmospheric mechanism (flood homogeneity). However, these assumptions should be carefully assessed before proceeding since they might not always be valid and could increase the potential for flood risk. This study focuses on flood frequency analysis from the perspective of flood heterogeneity, the hydrometeorological genesis of each flood event, in Arizona. This was done by analyzing the occurrence and magnitude of individual flood events, which were classified by their flood-producing atmospheric mechanism. Flood frequency curves were derived for each mechanism and combined using a new approach involving the Partial Duration Series peaks. The combined frequency curves were then compared to curves derived from the standard Bulletin 17B method. Results showed that in southern Arizona, the dominant flooding mechanism is characterized by brief, intense, and localized convective precipitation in the summer. However, the dominant flood-producing mechanism in the central Arizona topographic transition zone and at higher elevations is characterized by prolonged and widespread precipitation from synoptic activity in the winter. Tropical cyclone-enhanced precipitation is also an important, but infrequent, flood-producing mechanism throughout the state. Overall, the dominant mechanism does not necessarily produce the largest floods. In such cases flood heterogeneity can have a strong influence on the discharge estimates for the most extreme upper tail probabilities calculated from the flood frequency analysis. Thus, the most frequent floods may impose very little risk of flooding while uncommon floods can impose a much larger one. These results suggest that the flood homogeneity assumption is not valid in many Arizona watersheds. To produce the most accurate discharge estimates possible, it is critical that both analysts and flood managers become aware of the potential repercussions if these details are overlooked.
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Guinea, Barrientos Héctor Estuardo. "Institutional Aspects of Integrated Flood Management in Guatemala." Doctoral thesis, Uppsala universitet, Institutionen för geovetenskaper, 2014. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:uu:diva-234303.
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Floods are a recurrent natural disaster in Guatemala. Heavy and prolonged rainfall often results in floods that affect people’s life and property. Several institutions and policy instruments at local, national or transnational level address flood management. The purpose of this study is to provide useful insights of the institutional aspects of integrated flood management at local, national and transboundary level in Guatemala. Papers I and II, explore institutions at local level, paper III at national level, while paper IV addresses flood management institutions at transboundary level. This research found that for the local and national level, there are several institutions concerned with flood management. In contrast, at transboundary level, and especially for international rivers, flood management institutions are largely absent. At local level, the Local Councils for Development (COCODEs, the acronym in Spanish) are responsible for flood prevention and preparation. While some municipalities are active in flood prevention, response and recovery activities, their limited economic and technical resources restrict their scope of action. Local stakeholders such as COCODEs, farmers groups and other actors are largely neglected in the decision making process. The National Coordinator for Risk Reduction to Disasters (CONRED, Coordinadora Nacional para Reducción de Desastres), the Secretariat for Planning and Programming of the Presidency (SEGEPLAN, Secretaría de Planificación y Programación de la Presidencia), the Guatemalan Ministry of Infrastructure and other national institutions are in charge of planning and implementing flood management strategies, leaving public involvement of local actors mainly to public consultation. At the Central American level, the Coordination Centre for Natural Disasters Prevention in Central America (CEPREDENAC, Centro de Coordinación para la Prevención de Desastres Naturales en América Central), an institution part of the Central American Integration System (SICA by Spanish acronym), shall promote transboundary cooperation regarding disaster management, including flood management. However, transboundary flood management faces several challenges: territorial disputes and sovereignty issues over international rivers are significant obstacles to the implementation of integrated flood management programs.
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Krupka, Martin. "A rapid inundation flood cell model for flood risk analysis." Thesis, Heriot-Watt University, 2009. http://hdl.handle.net/10399/2219.
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Government flooding policy across Europe, and in the UK, has switched from flood defence to flood risk management. The approach requires the evaluation of the consequences of all possible asset failures over a range of flood probabilities. For a typical flood system this necessitates the simulation of thousands of inundation permutations. As a consequence, the speed of simulation is a significant factor in the practical implementation of this approach. This thesis reports on the development and testing of a Rapid Flood Inundation Model (RFIM) designed to satisfy this requirement. The model consists of a precalculation part, and a subsequent rapid flood inundation prediction. Three variations of the rapid inundation routine are presented. The algorithms differ in the way in which the flood depth on the communication links between the cells is calculated. The latter version also permits a spatially limited estimation of flow velocities. The RFIM was applied to the Greenwich and Thamesmead embayments on the River Thames in London. The main objectives of the RFIM testing were: to evaluate the predictive capabilities of the simple volume spreading method used. In order to undertake the task a Monte Carlo analysis was performed and the flood extent maps were compared to predictions produced by the two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, TUFLOW. The overall performance of the model was found to be acceptable, although some inaccuracies in the predictions, as a result of the oversimplification of the hydraulics, were observed. These were discussed and recommendations were given to improve model behaviour. The computational speeds were found to be acceptable and within the required limits. It is therefore suggested that the proposed Rapid Flood Inundation Model can be used for flood predictions in urban areas for the purpose of flood risk management.
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Ettrick, T. M. "Seasonal flood risk." Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 1986. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.371789.
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Al-Abbasi, Adel. "Steam-flood modelling." Thesis, University of Bath, 1988. https://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.383305.
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McCloskey, William B., Glenn C. Wright, and Kathryn C. Taylor. "Managing Vegetation on the Orchard Floor in Flood Irrigated Arizona Citrus Groves." College of Agriculture, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ), 1996. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/220517.
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Several orchard floor management strategies were evaluated beginning in the fall of 1993 in experiments on the Yuma Mesa in a Limoneira 8A Lisbon lemon grove and in a Valencia orange grove at the University of Arizona Citrus Agricultural Center (CAC) in Waddell, Arizona. On the Yuma Mesa, disking provided satisfactory weed control except underneath the tree canopies where bermudagrass, purple nutsedge, and other weed species survived. Mowing the orchard floor suppressed broadleaf weed species allowing the spread of grasses, primarily bermudagrass. Preemergence (Solicam and Surflan) and postemergence (Roundup and Torpedo) herbicides were used to control weeds in the clean culture treatment in Yuma. After two harvest seasons (1994-95 and 1995-96), the clean culture treatment resulted in greater yield than the other treatments. At the CAC, clean culture (in this location no preemergence herbicides were used), mowed resident weeds, and Salina strawberry clover orchard floor management schemes were compared. Again the clean culture treatment yielded more than the mowed resident weeds. The yield of the strawberry clover treatment was somewhat less than the clean culture yield but not significantly less. The presence of cover crops or weeds on the orchard floor were found to modulate tree canopy temperatures, and to have beneficial effects on soil nitrogen and soil organic matter content, but no effect on citrus leaf nutrient content. The decrease in yield in the mowed resident weed treatments compared to the clean culture treatment in both locations was attributed to competition for water.
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McCloskey, William B., Glenn C. Wright, and Kathryn C. Taylor. "Managing Vegetation on the Orchard Floor in Flood Irrigated Arizona Citrus Groves." College of Agriculture, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ), 1997. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/220523.
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Several orchard floor management strategies were evaluated beginning in the fall of 1993 in experiments on the Yuma Mesa in a 'Limoneira 8A Lisbon' lemon grove and in a 'Valencia' orange grove at the University of Arizona Citrus Agricultural Center (CAC) in Waddell, Arizona. On the Yuma Mesa, disking provided satisfactory weed control except underneath the tree canopies where bermudagrass, purple nutsedge, and other weed species survived. Mowing the orchard floor suppressed broadleaf weed species allowing the spread of grasses, primarily bermudagrass. Pre-emergence (Solicam and Surffan) and post-emergence (Roundup and Torpedo) herbicides were used to control weeds in the clean culture treatment in Yuma. After three harvest seasons (1994-95 through 1996-97), the clean culture treatment resulted in greater yield than the other treatments. At the CAC, clean culture (in this location no pre -emergence herbicides were used,) mowed resident weeds, and Salina strawberry clover orchard floor management schemes were compared. Again the clean culture treatment yielded more than the mowed resident weeds. The yield of the strawberry clover treatment was somewhat less than the clean culture yield but not significantly less. The presence of cover crops or weeds on the orchard floor were found to have beneficial effects on soil nitrogen and soil organic matter content, but no effect on citrus leaf nutrient content. The decrease in yield in the mowed resident weed treatments compared to the clean culture treatment in both locations was attributed to competition for water.
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Khan, Imran. "Towards Sustainable Flood Management in upper Sindh, Pakistan : A case study of District Sukkur." Thesis, Mittuniversitetet, Avdelningen för ekoteknik och hållbart byggande, 2013. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:miun:diva-19553.
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Flooding is the most devastating natural hazard in Pakistan and the recent flooding has demonstrated its severeness. Floods are common all over the country, though the province of Sindh experience the most damages. River Indus flows on a ridge here and once the surplus water during flood events leave the main channel does not return back. Therefore it is very important to adapt to this disaster. This study aims at identifying ways to address the problem of floods in upper Sindh for which Sukkur district was chosen. Questionnaire survey and interviews were conducted in three talukas of the district in the aftermath of recent floods (2010, 2011 and 2012) to provide a baseline study for Sustainable Flood Disaster Management Plan for the upper Sindh region. Recommendations were put to reduce the flood losses for the future floods.
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Deutsch, Mathias. "Untersuchungen zu Hochwasserschutzmassnahmen an der Unstrut (1500-1900)." Göttingen : Goltze, 2007. http://catalog.hathitrust.org/api/volumes/oclc/175651941.html.
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Carisi, Francesca <1986>. "Anthropogenic Drivers of Flood-Risk Dynamics over Large Flood-Prone Areas." Doctoral thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2017. http://amsdottorato.unibo.it/8168/7/Carisi_Francesca_Dissertation_XXIX_cicle.pdf.
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Flood risk assessment and management witnessed an extremely significant improvement during the last two decades pro-actively responding to the increasing impact of floods worldwide and to the promulgation of the European Flood Directive 2007/60/EC. In spite of these efforts, the uncertainties associated with all components of flood risk (hazard, exposure and susceptibility) are still high and several open problems still need to be accurately investigated. Addressing three different Italian case studies, this Dissertation aims at shedding some light on the most important flood risk related issues for which current literature seems to be still sparse. Concerning flood hazard, we investigates the role of different human-induced drivers and showed that the influence of anthropogenic land-subsidence near the city of Ravenna is definitely less important than the impact of the linear infrastructures in altering the flooding dynamics. With regard to flood exposure, we proposes an innovative simplified tool proving to be reliable to assess how and where a specific land-use class developed over time. By adopting these tools we investigated the evolution of exposure of residential sector over the entire floodplain of the middle-lower portion of the Po river during the last 50 years, showing that the expected economic damages in case of a catastrophic flood event doubled during this time span. Finally, focusing on flood susceptibility, we collected and analysed damage data for a real inundation event of January 2014 concerning the Secchia river to develop uni- and multi-variate damage models for flood losses evaluation. Their performance was compared with the one of widely used literature models, pointing out that the latter, originally developed for specific contexts, should not be exported to different contexts. The multi-variate approach slightly outperforms the uni-variate one. Furthermore, our results highlight the need for a comprehensive collection of post-event data, aiming at validating existing models.
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Haddad, Khaled. "Design flood estimation for ungauged catchments in Victoria : ordinary and generalised least squares methods compared." Thesis, View thesis, 2008. http://handle.uws.edu.au:8081/1959.7/30369.
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Design flood estimation in small to medium sized ungauged catchments is frequently required in hydrologic analysis and design and is of notable economic significance. For this task Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR) 1987, the National Guideline for Design Flow Estimation, recommends the Probabilistic Rational Method (PRM) for general use in South- East Australia. However, there have been recent developments that indicated significant potential to provide more meaningful and accurate design flood estimation in small to medium sized ungauged catchments. These include the L moments based index flood method and a range of quantile regression techniques. This thesis focuses on the quantile regression techniques and compares two methods: ordinary least squares (OLS) and generalised least squares (GLS) based regression techniques. It also makes comparison with the currently recommended Probabilistic Rational Method. The OLS model is used by hydrologists to estimate the parameters of regional hydrological models. However, more recent studies have indicated that the parameter estimates are usually unstable and that the OLS procedure often violates the assumption of homoskedasticity. The GLS based regression procedure accounts for the varying sampling error, correlation between concurrent flows, correlations between the residuals and the fitted quantiles and model error in the regional model, thus one would expect more accurate flood quantile estimation by this method. This thesis uses data from 133 catchments in the state of Victoria to develop prediction equations involving readily obtainable catchment characteristics data. The GLS regression procedure is explored further by carrying out a 4-stage generalised least squares analysis where the development of the prediction equations is based on relating hydrological statistics such as mean flows, standard deviations, skewness and flow quantiles to catchment characteristics. This study also presents the validation of the two techniques by carrying out a split-sample validation on a set of independent test catchments. The PRM is also tested by deriving an updated PRM technique with the new data set and carrying out a split sample validation on the test catchments. The results show that GLS based regression provides more accurate design flood estimates than the OLS regression procedure and the PRM. Based on the average variance of prediction, standard error of estimate, traditional statistics and new statistics, rankings and the median relative error values, the GLS method provided more accurate flood frequency estimates especially for the smaller catchments in the range of 1-300 km2. The predictive ability of the GLS model is also evident in the regression coefficient values when comparing with the OLS method. However, the performance of the PRM method, particularly for the larger catchments appears to be satisfactory as well.
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Haddad, Khaled. "Design flood estimation for ungauged catchments in Victoria ordinary & generalised least squares methods compared /." View thesis, 2008. http://handle.uws.edu.au:8081/1959.7/30369.
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Thesis (M.Eng. (Hons.)) -- University of Western Sydney, 2008.A thesis submitted towards the degree of Master of Engineering (Honours) in the University of Western Sydney, College of Health and Science, School of Engineering. Includes bibliographical references.
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Keskin, Fatih. "Quantitative Flood Risk Assessment With Application In Turkey." Phd thesis, METU, 2012. http://etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12615024/index.pdf.
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Floods can result in enormous causalities and huge economic losses in urban and rural regions. In recent years, while assessing the damage, risk analysis and assessment has become an important tool in addressing uncertainty in flood hazards. The lack of knowledge about the water extend, water depth, water velocity and potential damage in case of flood increase the vulnerability of the people to disasters in the flood region. Especially this information is valuable for city planners and decision makers. In case of new settlement area selection, correct decision can be taken by the help of this information. This type of information can be taken from hydraulic models as 1D or 2D. On the other hand, two dimensional (2D) hydraulic modeling becomes a need with increasing trends of very high speed computers and models instead of one dimensional (1D) ones. The ability of solving complex structures within few minutes enhances the use of 2D modeling with the integration of wave motion. In addressing the uncertainty, GIS becomes an important tool in risk assessment by integrating the flood depth, extend and vulnerability issues for definition of the quantitative risk. In this study, 1D and 2D hydraulic modeling is applied and combined with the quantitative vulnerability factors in Dalaman Plain-Turkey. Results show that the area is vulnerable to flood and high monetary damages can be seen in case a flood in the region.
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Mason, David W. "Modelling the effect of flood plain storage on the flood frequency curve." Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 1992. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.386709.
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A stochastic rainfall-runoff model has been developed to generate synthetic series of floods, which are routed through idealised channel-flood plain configurations using a hydraulic flood routing model. Results are presented which show the effect of varying six geometrical parameters which are thought to be important in the transformation of flood frequency curves.
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Bhatti, Babar Mahmood 1968. "Extreme rainfall, flood scaling and flood policy options in the United States." Thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2000. http://hdl.handle.net/1721.1/9092.
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Thesis (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering; and, (S.M.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Engineering Systems Division, 2000.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 220-227).
River flood and rainfall have been shown to exhibit scale invariance behavior over a range of space and time scales. Although various approaches have been taken to investigate and model the various scaling aspects of rainfall and floods, little theoretical work has been done on the relation between the scaling of rainfall and flood. If available, such a theory would provide frequency estimate for extreme rainfall and floods outside the range of observations and could also be used to estimate floods at ungaged basins. The relationship between rainfall and flood scaling is the main focus of this thesis. We use a two step approach to investigate the relationship between exponent of peak flows and the scaling of rain. First, we use data analysis to verify existing theories that relate the multi scaling behavior of rainfall to the simple scaling behavior of the IDFs. Second, we use a model to relate the scaling of the IDFs to the scaling of peak flows with basin area. We find that, although temporal rainfall shows multiscaling, the IDFs exhibit simple scaling and peak floods show simple or mild multiscaling. We validate our findings by using U.S. peak annual flow data and rainfall from a few New England stations. Extreme floods damage mitigation requires sound and integrated policy making. We review the flood disaster mitigation situation in the U.S., carry out policy analysis and recommend options for a successful and sustainable flood disaster policy in the U.S.
by Babar Mahmood Bhatti.
S.M.
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Woodhead, Simon Peter Barratt. "Bayesian calibration of flood inundation simulators using an observation of flood extent." Thesis, University of Bristol, 2007. http://hdl.handle.net/1983/51577ea9-580e-4497-9840-fd5ae3ca15e0.
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We develop a Bayesian framework for calibrating flood inundation simulators on an observation of flood extent, and making calibrated predictions of a future event. We illustrate the framework using the binary channel (BC) model for the likelihood of the observed flood extent given a simulation of flood extent. The BC model leads to poor results, and this motivates the search for a more appropriate likelihood model, which forms the basis for the rest of the thesis. We extend the Ising model to regression on a binary image and review methods for dealing with the intractable normalising constant. We propose novel applications of path sampling, extend path sampling to sampling over areas, and develop approximations to path sampling. We also develop the heterogeneous binary channel (HBC) model to test the effect of heterogeneity and spatial dependence. We extend the hidden conditional autoregressive (HCAR) model to regression on a binary image. We show that the limit of the HCAR model as the parameters approach the boundary is the (improper) hidden intrinsic autoregressive (HIAR) model. We prove that the HIAR model can be used for calibration but not calibrated prediction. We develop a number of methods for improving mixing of the MCMC algorithm. We explore two extensions of the HCAR model. First the heterogeneous HCAR (HHCAR) model, which represents heterogeneity, and second the continuous HCAR (CHCAR) model, which uses continuous simulation values. In conclusion, using our Bayesian framework we can replicate the results of less rigorous approaches, for example generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE), and make probabilistic predictions which are not possible in these less rigorous approaches. Future work would further develop the likelihood models.
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Roder, Giulia. "Flood dynamics, social vulnerability and risk perception: challenges for flood risk management." Doctoral thesis, Università degli studi di Padova, 2019. http://hdl.handle.net/11577/3427296.
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The 2015 was a remarkable year in the global policy with the publication of three milestones: The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, the Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement for Climate Change. The global significance of such documents raised interest in the understanding of the interaction between humans, the Earth and the climate, and the past and current development of disasters. Anthropogenic landscapes are one of the most sensitive environments to hydrological extremes, fluctuations and changes. Here, hydrogeological disasters such as floods are considered one of the major threat of our time, bringing negative consequences to the whole societal system. However, while climate change and socio-economic development are important drivers of flood impacts, human behaviours can alter the potential effects of a flood by undertaking protective behaviours. In this regard, risk perceptions are potential drivers of behaviour. Thus, exploring individuals’ concern about natural hazards provide essential information about people willingness to take precautionary measures and can, therefore, identify the major reasons behind the unsatisfactory performance level of current disaster management practices. This suggests that advancing our understanding of the hazard perceptions by investigating personal, social and cultural influences can help in determining people preparedness. Limitations of personal action in front of the risk might come from social vulnerabilities, those factors that increase the fragility of individuals toward a particular threat. In light of this, there is the need to create people-oriented management strategies, with governments focused on vulnerable groups, able to recognise local capacities, foster communication and create awareness campaigns to empower the citizens and mitigate the undesirable effects of such events.
For this reason, this thesis proposes an analysis of flood and human interactions using historical and land use change data, participatory approaches and analysis of social vulnerability. Furthermore, this thesis would suggest possible flood risk management actions and policies in different anthropogenic communities. Different study areas have been chosen in order to tackle site-specific flood dynamics and capture how the socio-political and unique cultural background of each community might affect individuals conceptualisation of risk.Il 2015 è stato un anno chiave nella politica globale con la pubblicazione di tre documenti fondamentali: il Quadro di Sendai per la Riduzione dei Rischi Naturali, gli Obiettivi di Sviluppo Sostenibile e l'Accordo di Parigi sui cambiamenti climatici. Il significato globale di tali documenti ha suscitato interesse riguardo l'interazione tra uomo, Terra e clima simultaneamente alla frequenza dei disastri. I paesaggi antropici sono uno degli ambienti più sensibili agli eventi climatici estremi, alle loro fluttuazioni e mutamenti. Qui, i disastri idrogeologici, come le alluvioni, sono considerati una delle maggiori minacce del nostro tempo con conseguenze negative sull’intero apparato sociale. Tuttavia, mentre i cambiamenti climatici e lo sviluppo socio-economico sono fattori chiave che incidono sull’impatto delle inondazioni, i comportamenti umani possono anch’essi alterare e talvolta esasperare le conseguenze di tali eventi. A tal riguardo, la percezione del rischio di un individuo costituisce un elemento strategico per la definizione delle politiche di gestione poiché influenza la capacità del singolo di adottare misure precauzionali. Questa conoscenza permette di identificare le motivazioni che spingono le popolazioni ad agire (o non agire) in protezione da questi eventi. Si esaminano così le componenti personali, ma anche la struttura sociale, culturale e politica della comunità, che influenza tutto il processo cognitivo relazionato alle alluvioni. Tra i caratteri personali, ci possono essere degli elementi che amplificano la vulnerabilità verso tali eventi, rendendo l’individuo più esposto al pericolo e limitando la capacità di reazione. Tutti questi elementi sottolineano la necessità di una gestione integrata del rischio alluvionale, atto a riconoscere le capacità locali, aumentando la comunicazione, sensibilizzando la popolazione ad una cultura del rischio affinché possa prepararsi e mitigare gli effetti di tali eventi. Per questa ragione, questa tesi mira a proporre un approccio integrato alla gestione del rischio, proponendo analisi di dinamiche di piena e di cambiamento di uso del suolo, valutando il comportamento dell’uomo in relazione a tali eventi, attraverso analisi storiche, di vulnerabilità sociale e anche attraverso l’uso di approcci partecipativi. Inoltre, questa tesi suggerisce possibili azioni e politiche di gestione del rischio alluvionale in diversi territori antropizzati. Le aree di studio analizzate si differenziano tra loro al fine di comprendere come il contesto socio-politico e culturale unico di ogni comunità possa influenzare la comprensione del rischio e come si sono evolute le dinamiche di piena.
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West, Tracy L. "Flood mitigation and response comparing the Great Midwest Floods of 1993 and 2008." Thesis, Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School, 2010. http://hdl.handle.net/10945/4962.
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Approved for public release; distribution is unlimitedFloods are the nation's greatest natural disaster. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, floods cause an average of $6 billion of property damage, claim 140 lives, and prompt more Presidential disaster declarations per year than any other hazard. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) is the lead for federal response to natural disasters. FEMA was the lead agency in 1993 when floods caused an estimated $1 8 billion in damage in the Midwest. The scope and damages of this historic disaster led FEMA to change its approach to floodplain management, flood protection, flood mitigation, disaster response, and recovery. FEMA and federal emergency response further evolved following the terrorist attacks on September 11, 2001 and Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The latest changes resulted in a national response framework for all levels of government to prepare and respond to all natural and manmade hazards. In 2008, the Midwest experienced its second "500-year flood" in fifteen years. This thesis examines whether changes to national disaster response and investments in flood mitigation over the last fifteen years have improved preparation, protection, and response capabilities at the federal, state, and local levels.
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Meyerhofer, Michael. "Lessons of the flood /." Available to subscribers only, 2006. http://proquest.umi.com/pqdweb?did=1203579651&sid=2&Fmt=2&clientId=1509&RQT=309&VName=PQD.
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Pohl, Reinhard. "Changing city - changing flood." Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2015. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-160611.
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Reliable and precise information about possible floods, related water levels and inundation areas are needed even in urban areas to minimize potential damages. An important requirement for this issue is to adapt the stage-discharge relations to the changing constraints which could arise from morphology and hydrology. This paper reconsiders the use of historical hydrologic data in urban areas which have fundamentally changed even concerning the river beds, cross sections and floodplain areas. By means of a historical approach the flood statistics have been updated with surprising results.
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Pohl, Reinhard. "Changing city - changing flood." Technische Universität Dresden, 2011. https://tud.qucosa.de/id/qucosa%3A28531.
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Reliable and precise information about possible floods, related water levels and inundation areas are needed even in urban areas to minimize potential damages. An important requirement for this issue is to adapt the stage-discharge relations to the changing constraints which could arise from morphology and hydrology. This paper reconsiders the use of historical hydrologic data in urban areas which have fundamentally changed even concerning the river beds, cross sections and floodplain areas. By means of a historical approach the flood statistics have been updated with surprising results.
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Simoes, Nuno Eduardo da Cruz. "Urban pluvial flood forecasting." Thesis, Imperial College London, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10044/1/10545.
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Two main approaches to enhance urban pluvial flood prediction were developed and tested in this research: (1) short-term rainfall forecast based on rain gauge networks, and (2) customisation of urban drainage models to improve hydraulic simulation speed. Rain gauges and level gauges were installed in the Coimbra (Portugal) and Redbridge (UK) catchment areas. The collected data was used to test and validate the approaches developed. When radar data is not available urban pluvial flooding forecasting can be based on networks of rain gauges. Improvements were made in the Support Vector Machine (SVM) technique to extrapolate rainfall time series. These improvements are: enhancing SVM prediction using Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) for pre-processing data; combining SSA and SVM with a statistical analysis that gives stochastic results. A method that integrates the SVM and Cascade-based downscaling techniques was also developed to carry out high-resolution (5-min) precipitation forecasting with longer lead time. Tests carried out with historical data showed that the new stochastic approach was useful for estimating the level of confidence of the rainfall forecast. The integration of the cascade method demonstrates the possibility of generating high-resolution rainfall forecasts with longer lead time. Tests carried out with the collected data showed that water level in sewers can be predicted: 30 minutes in advance (in Coimbra), and 45 minutes in advance (in Redbridge). A method for simplifying 1D1D networks is presented that increases computational speed while maintaining good accuracy. A new hybrid model concept was developed which combines 1D1D and 1D2D approaches in the same model to achieve a balance between runtime and accuracy. While the 1D2D model runs in about 45 minutes in Redbridge, the 1D1D and the hybrid models both run in less than 5 minutes, making this new model suitable for flood forecasting.
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Makakole, Billy T. J. "Revision of the regional maximum flood calculation method for Lesotho." Thesis, Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University, 2014. http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/95935.
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Thesis (MEng) -- Stellenbosch University, 2014.ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The Francou and Rodier (1967) empirical approach uses the original concept of envelope curves for the definition of the regional maximum flood (RMF). Kovacs (1980) adopted the Francou and Rodier empirical flood calculation method and applied it to 355 catchments in South Africa. He revised his study in 1988 to also include the southern portions of the Southern Africa subcontinent. No method other than the Francou and Rodier empirical flood approach in the reviewed literature was found to be suitable for the purpose of this study. Therefore the Francou and Rodier empirical approach, as applied by Kovacs in 1988, was reapplied and used in this study to update the RMF for Lesotho. Maximum recorded flood peaks were derived from annual maximum time series and an up to date catalogue of flood peaks for 29 catchments was compiled for Lesotho. The maximum recorded flood peaks were then plotted on the logarithmic scale against their corresponding catchment areas. There are 3 major river systems that divide Lesotho into hydrologically homogenous basins. Envelope curves were drawn on the upper bound of the cloud of plotted points for these 3 river basins. These envelope curves represent the maximum flood peaks that can reasonably be expected to occur within the respective river basins in Lesotho.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Francou en Rodier (1967) se empiriese benadering maak gebruik van die oorspronklike konsep van boonste limiet kurwes vir die definisie van die streeks maksimum vloed (SMV). Kovacs (1980) het die Francou en Rodier empiriese vloed berekening metode toegepas op 355 opvanggebiede in Suid-Afrika. Hy hersien sy studie in 1988 om ook die suidelike gedeeltes van die Suider-Afrikaanse subkontinent in te sluit. Geen ander metode as die Francou en Rodier empiriese vloed benadering is in die literatuur gevind wat as geskik aanvaar kan word vir die doel van hierdie studie nie. Daarom is die Francou en Rodier empiriese benadering, soos toegepas deur Kovacs in 1988, weer in hierdie studie toegepas en gebruik om die SMV metode vir Lesotho op te dateer. Maksimum aangetekende vloedpieke is verkry vanuit jaarlikse maksimum tyd-reekse en ʼn opgedateerde katalogus van vloedpieke vir 29 opvanggebiede saamgestel vir Lesotho. Die maksimum aangetekende vloedpieke is grafies aangetoon op logaritmiese skaal teenoor hul opvanggebiede. Daar is 3 groot rivierstelsels wat Lesotho in hidrologiese homogene gebiede verdeel. Boonste limiet kurwes is opgestel om die boonste grens van die gestipte punte vir hierdie 3 gebiede aan te toon. Hierdie krommes verteenwoordig die maksimum vloedpieke wat redelikerwys verwag kan word om binne die onderskeie rivierstelsels in Lesotho voor te kan kom.
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Bauer, Donald R. "Floods to Floodwalls in Newport, Kentucky: 1884-1951." Xavier University / OhioLINK, 1988. http://rave.ohiolink.edu/etdc/view?acc_num=xavier1274982457.
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Silva, Sallet Dayane. "Regional flood frequency analysis: evaluation of the design flood for 5 Brazilian dams." Master's thesis, Alma Mater Studiorum - Università di Bologna, 2019. http://amslaurea.unibo.it/18856/.
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Engineers in the water resources field frequently have to estimate the probability of exceedance related to a determined flow value at a chosen river cross-section, also known as flood quantile. This estimation is necessary in order to proceed with the design of different structures, such as dam spillways, and for other functions, such as risk management. The accurate estimation of the flood quantile of interest is not an easy task, as return periods of interest usually require a data record that exceeds the length of the available gauging record at the site of concern. In order to accurately estimate flood quantiles at a given river cross-section, the regional flood frequency analysis (RFFA) is often used, allowing to compensate the lack of data by gathering information from other gauging stations which are supposed to be similar to the target station.
The present Thesis deals with the evaluation of the 1,000-year flood quantile for five Brazilian dams based on a RFFA. The five studied dams are: Cachoeira Dourada, Ponte Alta do Bom Jesus, Quatiara, Poxoréo and Volta Grande. An index-flood method is applied as a usual approach in RFFA. The Region of Influence approach is then considered in order to define a homogeneous pooling-group of sites for a given target site. Overall, 79 gauging stations are examined for the evaluation of the 1,000-year flood quantile.
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Geiger, Andrea Lynn. "Private vs. public flood insurance rates is there a national flood insurance subsidy? /." Access to citation, abstract and download form provided by ProQuest Information and Learning Company; downloadable PDF file 1.97 Mb., ? p, 2006. http://gateway.proquest.com/openurl?url_ver=Z39.88-2004&res_dat=xri:pqdiss&rft_val_fmt=info:ofi/fmt:kev:mtx:dissertation&rft_dat=xri:pqdiss:1435926.
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Tanaka, Tomohiro. "Extreme flood frequency analysis and flood risk curve development considering spatiotemporal rainfall variability." 京都大学 (Kyoto University), 2016. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/217150.
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Li, Mengtong. "An intelligent flood evacuation model based on deep learning of various flood scenarios." Doctoral thesis, Kyoto University, 2021. http://hdl.handle.net/2433/263634.
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Rossman, Edwin J. (Edwin John). "Individual Resources, Social Environment, and Flood Victimization." Thesis, University of North Texas, 1990. https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc330855/.
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The study is a contextual analysis of flood victimization. Victimization is defined as the social, psychological, and physiological aftermath experienced by victims of a disaster. Disaster researchers concentrate on the victims' characteristics to explain the varying degrees of their victimization, providing only ambiguous results. Theorists such as Kreps, Wildavsky, and Douglas contend that the outcomes of disasters are contingent upon social structure. This analysis treats victimization as one such outcome. The condition and behavior of individuals can be explained by the presence of disaster and the conditions of social organization. A model explains victimization based on individual's attributes (individual resources), his social environment, and the disaster characteristics. This study uses the 1984 Mingo Creek Flood Victims Survey data to test the model. The data contain information measuring victimization. The survey data are linked with 1980 Census tract data. The tract data provide indicators of the social networks. This tract information, the contextual variables, taps the social conditions, including poverty, unemployment, geographic mobility, and family patterns. This study uses factor analysis to identify the dimensions of victimization. Regression tests the relationship between the contextual variables, the individual resource variables, the disaster characteristic variables, and victimization. The results of the analysis show that victimization is multidimensional with different types of variables being significant predictors for each dimension of victimization, one variable indicating the intensity of the disaster, the dollar value of damage victims experienced, is found to be a significant predictor of the psychological, physiological, and social disruption aspects of victimization. Variables measuring the family and unemployment patterns in the victims' census tract are significant predictors of the psychological and social disruption aspect of victimization. The findings provide general support for the proposed model of victimization. However, victimization is multidimensional with each dimension having a unique set of predictors. Based on the findings, this study suggests that future research focus on measurement and conceptualization of the characteristics of disasters and the victims' social environment.
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Betts, Haydn Wadsworth. "Floodplain Management: An Examination of Factors that effect Decision Makers Prior to and During a Flood Emergency." Thesis, Griffith University, 2011. http://hdl.handle.net/10072/366207.
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This thesis is directed to preparing for and managing floods that overwhelm floodplain
management measures already in place in South East Queensland’s extensively
developed residential floodplains. Such floods would generally have a magnitude
greater than the 100 year annual recurrence interval. The thesis examines the context
and preventative measures that lead to the development of counter disaster plans, and
thence to examining the factors that affect decision makers prior to, and at the onset of
a flood emergency.
The standard flood mitigation tools are prevention through behaviour modification, land
use planning, physical mitigation measures (aimed at modifying floodwater behaviour),
and emergency planning. These measures can overlap, and the thesis finds that to be
fully effective, the measures must be developed through interaction with the
community, and be accompanied by community education and awareness programs.
A great deal of work undertaken in the last 10 to 15 years has defined parameters for
the sustainable use of flood prone land and emergency planning. Numerical modelling
of hydrologic and hydraulic processes has improved significantly, and physical
mitigation measures are well known. Additionally, thought has been devoted to the
adverse consequences of flooding.Thesis (PhD Doctorate)
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Griffith School of Environemnt
Science, Environment, Engineering and Technology
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Šír, Jan. "Analýza rozsahu poškození suchých podlah v případě vlhkostní havárie." Master's thesis, Vysoké učení technické v Brně. Fakulta stavební, 2016. http://www.nusl.cz/ntk/nusl-240130.
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The thesis is focused on analysis of damage extent of dry floors in case of a flood. In the first part it deals with problems of buildings´ stress factors in the point of view of building physics, floor composition and its connection to constructions of timber houses. In the second part it describes testing of three experimental floor samples during simulated flood. It examines and evaluates the behavior and the way of spreading of the leaking water and the effect of moisture on the materials.
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Pohl, Reinhard. "Flood records in urban areas." Saechsische Landesbibliothek- Staats- und Universitaetsbibliothek Dresden, 2015. http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:bsz:14-qucosa-160702.
Full textAbstract:
Even in urban areas reliable and precise information about possible floods and related water levels as well as inundation areas are needed to minimize potential damages. One main requirement for this issue is to correct the stage-discharge relations which are sometimes not available. This paper reconsiders the use of historical hydrologic data in urban areas which have fundamentally changed even concerning the river beds, cross sections and floodplain areas. By means of an historical approach the flood statistics has been updated with surprising results.
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Hopson, Thomas Moore. "Operational flood-forecasting for Bangladesh." Diss., Connect to online resource, 2005. http://wwwlib.umi.com/dissertations/fullcit/3165830.
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Sihapoompichit, Supawan. "Flood : An investigation in clay." Thesis, Konstfack, Keramik & Glas, 2012. http://urn.kb.se/resolve?urn=urn:nbn:se:konstfack:diva-3685.
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Pottery is a kind of craft which requires retentive training. The only way to achieve each technique is to practice in repetition till the skill has been absorbed into the hands and body of the practitioner. The most obvious problematic achievement in pottery skill is ‘wheel throwing’ technique. With the long history in straight forward training, one needs to free the mind and allow oneself be a ‘copy machine’ in order to learn the technique properly. The paradox of traditional practice of having mastered the skill, but could not break through, is one of typical obstruction to many crafters. ‘Flood’ as theme for investigation in clay was an attempt to set up a method in order to find the ‘breaking through’ in term of ‘thinking’ and ‘making’ for traditional pottery practitioner to be relevant in the pace of contemporary surrounding. The investigation was planned to de‐familiarize my perception over my tradition and practice, and it was an eye‐opening to how I positioned myself personally and professionally to the discipline, the society and the world.
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Traiger, Elizabeth A. "Statistical Techniques for flood estimation." Thesis, University of Oxford, 2008. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.504614.
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Heritage, George. "Stability of flood alleviation schemes." Thesis, University of East Anglia, 1990. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.280034.
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The engineering of natural river channels alters their morphology and hydraulic regime. In many cases this can adversely affect the riverine environment as well as cause instability. Several methods designed to predict channel change at engineered sites were evaluated using a range of river engineering schemes across England and Wales, which encompassed conventional and environmentally sensitive schemes in both upland and lowland areas. The methods tested included critical tractive force and permissible velocity theory, Griffiths natural stability index, Brookes stream power index, shear stress analysis, regime theory, sediment transport equations and one dimensional mathematical models. Of these, the use of sediment transport equations linked to rating curves for individual cross-sections, based on frictional characteristics, most accurately predicted the morphological changes recorded along the engineered reaches of simple channels. Their performance on compound channels was impaired due to the poor understanding of the frictional effect of the flood berms. It is recommended that this method be adopted to assess the stability of engineering proposals at the design stage. The impact of engineering schemes on aquatic niacrophytes is also evaluated. Five physical factors were found to influence individual species, namely channel depth, flow area, surface sediment size, bank slope and flow velocity. Tables are presented which allow the prediction of the species assemblage likely to be associated with a given engineering design. It is also clear that species diversity is increased if a range of habitats are incorporated within an engineering scheme, as has occurred on many of the environmentally sensitive flood relief schemes. These approaches to river engineering also appear to enhance the diversity of species above that for the natural channel, whereas conventional methods show the opposite trend. Such methods are therefore to be recommended as options in the design and rehabilitation of flood relief schemes.
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Futter, Mark R. "Predicting short term flood risks." Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 1990. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.315639.
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Two models for estimating the short term risk of a flood exceeding some critical flow, which take account of the season and prevailing conditions have recently been published. The model proposed by Ettrick (1986) is based on conditional probability distributions, while Smith and Karr (1986) relate the rate of exceedence of the critical level of interest to relevant covariates. Both models are fitted to a 1000 year synthetic data set, to compare the results with empirically derived immediate and 30 day ahead risk estimates. After some modifications to the Smith and Karr model, both models demonstrate reasonable accuracy. A second comparison is then made using summer data from a U.K. catchment. The results demonstrate the sensitivity of the risk to the prevailing conditions at the beginning of the period of interest. The assumptions, data requirements and accuracy of the models are compared and discussed. The Ettrick model is chosen for further consideration, given that this model is based on a precipitation threshold, whilst the Smith and Karr model is based on a flow threshold, and the data record is longer for the former. The Ettrick model is then applied to two other U.K. catchments to give all year flood risk estimates. These cover the immediate, 7 day and 30 day ahead time periods. For the immediate flow risk estimates, the importance of snow on the catchment to the levels of flood risk is highlighted. In the case of the 7 day ahead estimates, the significance of the snow is reduced. Given this latter result, the 30 day ahead estimates are not conditional on snow, but still highlight a strong seasonality in the flood risk. Application of the Ettrick model is shown to imply the variable source area concept of runoff production. This may not be the dominant runoff production mechanism on certain catchments, and as such, restricts applicability of the Ettrick model.
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Ghani, Abdul Aziz Abdul. "Spectral estimation of flood risks." Thesis, University of Newcastle Upon Tyne, 1988. http://ethos.bl.uk/OrderDetails.do?uin=uk.bl.ethos.360137.
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A model for estimating seasonal flood risks which uses flow readings which are equally spaced in time is presented in this thesis. The model is referred to as the Spectral Model. This model can be used to estimate the probability of at least 1 exceedance of given critical levels. The model is based on the Rice distribution for peaks of a Gaussian stochastic process, whose parameters are associated with the spectral moments of the process. In the simpler form of the model, peaks are assumed independent. Simulation results obtained using realisation of Gaussian AR(1) processes indicated that the estimates of the risks using Spectral Model are less biased than those obtained from the EV1 and the POT Model, especially for higher critical levels. A modification which removes the assumption that peaks are independent using the multi-fold integrals of Gupta and Moran is also considered. Gupta's method assumes that the correlation between peaks at any lag are equal to the first autocorrelation. The Monte Carlo simulation of Moran has no such restriction on the autocorrelations but may not converge. The Model was applied to River Greta, a small catchment in County Durham in the North of England.
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Simpson, Katherine Hannah. "Public choice for flood defence." Thesis, University of Stirling, 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/1893/22596.
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Why do we want to value the environment? Environmental assets provide a flow of goods and services over time which benefit mankind. Valuing these services contributes towards their protection and enhancement, however many of these benefits cannot be valued in traditional markets and as such rely on non-market valuation techniques. One of these is contingent valuation (CV) which directly asks respondents whether they are willing to pay for an improvement in the good or service. This thesis seeks to explore methodological issues associated with this method by undertaking a CV survey to elicit willingness to pay (WTP) for a new type of flood defence (managed realignment) on the Tay Estuary, Scotland. One challenge for survey designers is to provide high quality, readily understandable information to mitigate bias in WTP estimates. This thesis contributes to the information provision literature by examining whether prior knowledge or new information has a greater effect on the WTP estimate when controlling for respondent experience and familiarity with the good. A field experiment was designed to test for respondent’s prior knowledge; allow for varying levels of information to be presented to respondents and identify information acquisition for each respondent. Specifically tested was the notion that respondents who learn the most about the good during the survey process will have a more robust WTP estimate. Results were mixed: a causal relationship between information provision and learning was established with respondents in the higher treatment groups scoring higher in the second quiz. However, there was no relationship identified between prior knowledge, information provision and WTP. Personal motivations were the strongest predictors of WTP: those who were most concerned about flood risk and who lived closest to the proposed flood defence were willing to pay the most. A second issue in CV is consequentiality. Carson and Groves (2007) argue that for a survey to produce meaningful information about respondent’s preferences the respondent must view their responses as potentially influencing the supply of the public good. This thesis seeks add to this relatively new literature by exploring the observable factors which may influence respondents perceived consequentiality; specifically the effects of familiarity and information. Respondents were asked to state how confident they were that the results of the survey would be used by policy makers on a Likert scale ranging from “very unconfident” through to “very confident”. Results conformed to the Carson and Groves knife edge result: consequential respondents had significantly different WTP distributions compared to inconsequential and unsure respondents and were willing to pay significantly more towards the scheme. Consequential respondents also conformed the theoretical considerations of construct validity whilst inconsequential respondents did not. Respondents with more prior knowledge also appeared to be more likely to perceive the survey as consequential, although this was not consistent across all treatment groups. There is a concern that WTP and consequentiality are endogenous: respondents who want the policy to go ahead may be more likely to state the survey is consequential and state a high WTP in the hope these responses combined contribute to the policy maker’s decision. From a policy perspective the high level of support for the new scheme was encouraging and in contrast to previous findings on preferences for managed realignment. From a flood risk management perspective a “miss-match” between actual and perceived flood risk was highlighted, with many respondents stating they were not at risk from flooding when they in fact were. This is potentially concerning as respondents may not be taking adequate steps to protect their home from future flood risks. Overall it is recognised that values derived from the CV survey form one small part of the planning process and while informative, the decision for a scheme to take place should not be based on these values alone.
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Baird, Laura. "Flood forecasting in ungauged catchments." Thesis, University of Bristol, 1989. http://hdl.handle.net/1983/b07e966f-e5c8-440e-b29c-f8f6324074b7.
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Neary, Daniel G. "Post-Wildfire Flood Generation Processes." Arizona-Nevada Academy of Science, 2002. http://hdl.handle.net/10150/296575.
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Ilahee, Mahbub. "Modelling Losses in Flood Estimation." Thesis, Queensland University of Technology, 2005. https://eprints.qut.edu.au/16019/1/Mahbub_Ilahee_Thesis.pdf.
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Flood estimation is often required in hydrologic design and has important economic significance. For example, in Australia, the annual spending on infrastructure requiring flood estimation is of the order of $650 million ARR (I.E. Aust., 1998). Rainfall-based flood estimation techniques are most commonly adopted in practice.
These require several inputs to convert design rainfalls to design floods. Of all the inputs, loss is an important one and defined as the amount of precipitation that does not appear as direct runoff. The concept of loss includes moisture intercepted by vegetation, infiltration into the soil, retention on the surface, evaporation and loss through the streambed and banks. As these loss components are dependent on
topography, soils, vegetation and climate, the loss exhibits a high degree of temporal and spatial variability during the rainfall event.
In design flood estimation, the simplified lumped conceptual loss models were used because of their simplicity and ability to approximate catchment runoff behaviour. In Australia, the most commonly adopted conceptual loss model is the initial losscontinuing loss model. For a specific part of the catchment, the initial loss occurs prior to the commencement of surface runoff, and can be considered to be composed
of the interception loss, depression storage and infiltration that occur before the soil surface saturates. ARR (I. E. Aust., 1998) mentioned that the continuing loss is the average rate of loss throughout the remainder of the storm.
At present, there is inadequate information on design losses in most parts of Australia and this is one of the greatest weaknesses in Australian flood hydrology. Currently recommended design losses are not compatible with design rainfall information in Australian Rainfall and Runoff. Also design losses for observed storms show a wide variability and it is always difficult to select an appropriate value of loss from this wide range for a particular application. Despite the wide variability of loss values, in the widely used Design Event Approach, a single value of initial
and continuing losses is adopted. Because of the non-linearity in the rainfall-runoff process, this is likely to introduce a high degree of uncertainty and possible bias in the resulting flood estimates. In contrast, the Joint Probability Approach can consider probability-distributed losses in flood estimation.
In ARR (I. E. Aust., 1998) it is recommended to use a constant continuing loss value in rainfall events. In this research it was observed that the continuing loss values in the rainfall events were not constant, rather than it decays with the duration of the rainfall event. The derived loss values from the 969 rainfall and streamflow events of Queensland catchments would provide better flood estimation than the recommended design loss values in ARR (I. E. Aust., 1998). In this research, both the initial and continuing losses were computed using IL-CL loss model and a single median loss value was used to estimate flood using Design Event Approach. Again both the initial and continuing losses were considered to be random variables and their probability distribution functions were determined. Hence, the research showed that
the probability distributed loss values can be used for Queensland catchments in near future for better flood estimate.
The research hypothesis tested was whether the new loss value for Queensland catchments provides significant improvement in design flood estimation. A total of 48 catchments, 82 pluviograph stations and 24 daily rainfall stations were selected from all over Queensland to test the research hypothesis. The research improved the recommended design loss values that will result in more precise design flood estimates. This will ultimately save millions of dollars in the construction of hydraulic infrastructures.