Dissertations / Theses on the topic 'Flooding 2013'

Während der Elbeflut im Juni 2013 wurde in Dresden erstmals eine über das Internet frei zugängliche Hochwasserkarte eingesetzt. Über 3 Millionen Zugriffe erfolgten innerhalb des einwöchigen Betriebes. Somit konnte ein großer Teil der Einwohner erreicht und über aktuelle Gefahren informiert werden. Mit den Möglichkeiten, die eine solche Plattform bietet, wird aber gleichzeitig auch die Frage aufgeworfen, wie sich Bürger in Zukunft besser koordinieren lassen. (...)

Floristic, Ecological and Phytosociological, Study of the Forests of the Mbiye Island at Kisangani, DR Congo The Mbiye Island is situated on the Congo River, in the Eastern part of Kisangani. It is located upstream of the Wagenia Falls, between latitude 0º31’ North and longitude 25º11’ East, with 376 m of altitude. It adjoins the town of Kisangani, and it is 14 km long and 4 km wide. All around Kisangani, the Mbiye Island is the only ecosystem which has a dense forest that is relatively well preserved. This Island has an area of 1,400 ha, and it comprises three types of forest: dry land forest, periodically flooded forest and swampy forest. The main purpose of this study has been to make a qualitative and quantitative analysis of the physiognomy and structure of these three types of forest. I relied on two methods in data collecting: the Phytosociological plotting method with a sampling equal to 100 individuals for the higher strata and 100 m² grass strata, associated with dbh measure for trees whose diameter is ≥ 10 cm. In total, out of the 80 plottings, 67 multi strata and structurals each of which has been decomposed in 4 sub-plottings fit together. Based on the presence-absence criterion, the other 13 multi strata and structurals have been made into Chablis, and all the data have been globally analyzed. An inventory of 33991 individuals has been made in this study. After their identification, it has been found out that there 470 species belonging to 297 types and 90 families. Rubiaceae, Caesalpiniaceae and euphorbiaceae families have been found out to be the most important in Genus and species. In the raw spectra of biological types, the phanerophyts (83.0%) are the most predominant, and within which the mesophanerophyts (trees 10 to 30 m tall in their old age) are the most predominant (39.0%). The Phytogeographical spectra have more omni-guineo-congolese (35%) elements; and amongst the diaspore types, the sarcochores (69%) are the most predominant. 58 endemic species (12.3%) of the central forest sector have been found out at the Mbiye Island. After the classification and ordination of the 80 plottings by Twinspan and DCA, three Phytosociological groupings have been found out in the dry land forest: (1) grouping of Funtumia elastica and Albizia ealaensis, (2) grouping of Nesogordonia leplaei and Antiaris toxicaria, (3) prouping of Olyra latifolia and Campylospermum elongatum; two others for floodable forests (1) grouping of Rinorea oblongifolia and Byrsocarpus coccineus, (2) grouping of Pachystela seretii, Dracaena kindtiana and Culcasia yangambiensis, and three others for swampy forests: (1) grouping of Strombosia grandifolia, Calamus deerratus, Culcasia angolensis and Elaeis guineensis, (2) grouping of Cleistopholis patens and Pterygota bequaertii, (3) grouping of Diospyros bipendensis, Strychnos icaja and Palisota barteri and then two groupings for the Chablis plottings (1) grouping of Palisota schweinfurthii, Eremospatha haullevilleana, Thomandersia hensii and Pycnocoma insularis and (2) grouping of Nephrolepis biserrata and Scaphopetalum thonneri. The coelocaryon botryoides has shown a uniform spatial distribution in the in the forest periodically flooded, whereas Gilbertiodendron dewevrei has shown an aggregated distribution. Comparison of richness in different taxa within the sampling has given high values as far as the numbers of species is concerned and genus of the same family in the phytosociological sampling. Out of all the species listed, 189 have been considered to be common species with regard to the three forest types, other 144 belonged to two types. 90 species have been listed only on solid land, 27 on periodically flooded forest 20 on swampy forest. Euphorbiaceae, Rubiaceae and Caesalpiniaceae families were the best represented in species and genus. With regard to richness in each forest type, the forest of solid soil was the only one to have high values both in species<p>and genus, and the swampy forest was less represented. With reference to richness according to strata, the herbaceous and under-shrub stratum (H) was the richest whereas the stratum of dominant trees (E+A1) was the poorest. Mbiye island forest is the nearest one of Kisangani for which it plays the most important role with regards to supplies in different forest products and non-ligneous forest products. In total, 12.3% endemic species of Central forest sector have been listed there, but due to frequent use by man this time, all these endemic species may disappear from this island. It is therefore urgent that particular attention be paid on it. Actions of conservation and lasting exploitation must be started in order to block their extinction. Key words: DRCongo, Flora, Ecology, Phytosociology, insularity, flooding, spatial distribution, biodiversity, synusie, Mbiye Island, Kisangani./Etude floristique, écologique et phytosociologique des forêts de l'île Mbiye, Kisangani, RDCongo. L'île Mbiye est une île du fleuve Congo située dans la partie Est de la ville de Kisangani, en amont des chutes Wagenia, entre 0° 31' de latitude Nord et 25° 11' de longitude Est, avec une altitude de 376 m. Elle jouxte la ville de Kisangani et sa longueur maximale est de 14 km sur 4 km de largeur. Elle est le seul écosystème à proximité de la ville, possédant encore une forêt dense relativement bien conservée et formant un îlot de 1400 ha comprenant trois types forestiers :la forêt de terre ferme, la forêt périodiquement inondée et la forêt marécageuse. L’objectif principal de cette étude a été de faire une analyse quantitative et qualitative de la physionomie et la structure de ces trois types forestiers. Deux méthodes ont permis la récolte de données ;la méthode de relevés phytosociologiques à effort d’échantillonnage égal à 100 individus pour les strates supérieures et 100 m² pour la strate herbacée, associée à celle de mesure de D130, pour les arbres à diamètre ≥ 10 cm. Au total, 80 relevés dont 67 multistrates et structurels, décomposés chacun en 4 sous-relevés emboîtés, ont été mis en place. 13 autres ont été faits dans les chablis avec l’appréciation basée sur le critère de présence-absence et toutes les données ont été analysées globalement. A l’issue de cette étude, 33991 individus ont été recensés. Après leur identification, au total 470 espèces appartenant à 297 genres et 90 familles ont été obtenues. Les familles des Rubiaceae, des Caesalpiniaceae et des Euphorbiaceae sont les plus importantes, tant en genres qu’en espèces. Dans les spectres bruts de types biologiques, les phanérophytes (83,0 %) sont les plus abondants et au sein desquels les mésophanérophytes (arbres de 10 à 30 m au stade adulte) sont les plus dominants (39,0 %). Les spectres phytogéographiques ont montré une prédominance d’éléments omni-guinéo-congolais (35 %) alors que parmi les types de diaspores, les sarcochores (69 %) sont les plus dominants. 58 espèces endémiques du Secteur forestier central (soit 12,3 %) ont été recensées à l’île Mbiye. Après classification et ordination de ces 80 relevés par Twinspan et DCA, trois groupements phytosociologiques ont été obtenus dans la forêt de terre ferme: (1) groupement à Funtumia elastica et Albizia ealaensis, (2) groupement à Nesogordonia leplaei et Antiaris toxicaria, (3) groupement à Olyra latifolia et Campylospermum elongatum ;deux autres pour les forêts inondables (1) groupement à Rinorea oblongifolia et Byrsocarpus coccineus, (2) groupement à Pachystela seretii, Dracaena kindtiana et Culcasia yangambiensis ;trois autres encore pour les forêts marécageuses :(1) groupement à Strombosia grandifolia, Calamus deerratus, Culcasia angolensis et Elaeis guineensis, (2) groupement à Cleistopholis patens et Pterygota bequaertii, (3) groupement à Diospyros bipendensis, Strychnos icaja et Palisota barteri, et enfin, deux groupements pour les relevés de chablis (1) groupement à Palisota schweinfurthii, Eremospatha haullevilleana, Thomandersia hensii et Pycnocoma insularum et (2) groupement à Nephrolepis biserrata et Scaphopetalum thonneri. L’espèce Coelocaryon botryoides a montré une répartition spatiale uniforme dans la forêt périodiquement inondée alors que Gilbertiodendron dewevrei y a montré une répartition agrégée. La comparaison de la richesse en différents taxa au sein de relevés et de placettes a donné de valeurs supérieures en nombre d’espèces, de genres et même de familles, dans les relevés phytociologiques. Sur le total des espèces recensées, 189 ont été considérées comme espèces communes aux trois types forestiers, 144 autres appartenaient aux deux types. 90 espèces<p>n’ont été recensées qu’en forêt de terre ferme, 27 en forêt périodiquement inondée et 20 dans la forêt marécageuse. Les familles des Euphorbiaceae, des Rubiaceae et celle des Caesalpiniaceae ont été les mieux représentées en espèces et en genres. En ce qui concerne la richesse dans chaque type forestier, la forêt de terre ferme était la seule à avoir des valeurs supérieures tant en espèces qu’en genres et la forêt marécageuse était la moins représentée. Quant à la richesse spécifique selon les strates, la strate herbacée et sous-arbustive (H) était la plus riche alors que la strate des arbres dominants (E+A1) était la plus pauvre. La forêt de l’île Mbiye est la seule forêt proche de la ville de Kisangani pour laquelle elle joue un rôle de premier plan en ce qui concerne le ravitaillement en différents produits forestiers et forestiers non ligneux. Au total, 12,3% d’espèces endémiques du Secteur forestier Central y ont été recensées, mais vue l’action anthropique qu’elle connaît ce dernier temps, toutes ces espèces endémiques risquent de disparaître de cette île. Il est alors urgent qu’une attention particulière, soit tournée vers elle. Des actions de conservation et d’exploitation durable doivent être amorcées en vue contrecarrer l’extinction des celles-ci. Mots clés :RDCongo, flore, écologie, phytosociologie, insularité, inondation, répartition spatiale, biodiversité, synusie, île Mbiye, Kisangani.<br>Doctorat en Sciences<br>info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

A compact air separator demonstrator based on centrifugally enhanced distillation has been studied. The full size device is meant to be used on board of a Two Stage To Orbit vehicle launcher. The air separation system must be able to extract oxygen in highly concentrated liquid form (LEA, Liquid Enriched Air) from atmospheric air. The LEA is stored before being used in a subsequent rocket propulsion phase by the second stage of the launcher. Two reference vehicles are defined, one with a subsonic first stage and one with a supersonic first stage. In both cases, oxygen collection is performed during a cruise phase (M 0.7 and M 2.5 respectively). The aim of the project is to demonstrate the feasibility of the air separation system, investigate the separation cycle design, and assess that the separator design selected is suitable for the reference vehicles.<p><p>The project is described from original base ideas to design, construction, extended testing and analysis of experimental results. Preliminary computations for a realistic layout have been performed and the motivations for the choices made during the process are explained. Test rig design, separator design and technical discussion are provided for a subscale pilot unit. Mass transport parameters and flooding limits have been estimated and experimentally measured. Performance has been assessed and shown to be sufficient for the reference Two Stage To Orbit vehicles. The technology developed is found suitable without further optimization, although some volume and mass reduction would be desirable for the supersonic first stage concept. There are many ways of optimisation that can be further investigated. The aim of this program, however, is not to fully optimize the device, but to demonstrate that a device based on a simple, robust, low-risk design is already suitable for the launch vehicles. On top of that analysis, directions for improvements are suggested and their potentials estimated. A complete assessment of those improvements requires further maturation of the technological concept through further testing and practical implementations.<p><p>Directions for future work, general conclusions and a vehicle development roadmap have also been provided.<p><br>Doctorat en Sciences de l'ingénieur<br>info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Master of Arts<br>Department of Geography<br>Douglas G. Goodin<br>The Chobe River Basin (CRB) is a flood-dependent ecosystem that relies on seasonal floods from the Zambezi and Linyanti Rivers. These flood pulses provide water for the flood recession agriculture in the region, water for the fishing grounds around Lake Liambezi, and nutrients for the vegetation in the CRB. Recent years have shown an increase in the magnitude of flooding, which could have consequences on the region’s biodiversity and the people living in the CRB. The goal of this study is to develop a classification framework based on a training library and time-windows to use in classifying the extent of flooding in the CRB. MODIS MOD09A1 satellite imagery served as the satellite imagery. Bands one through seven were converted into the tasseled cap transformation to serve as the feature selection. The study period, from February to July, is broken down into three time-windows. The time-windows are used because the land covers in the CRB go through significant spectral changes during the study period and the three time-windows seek to improve the classification accuracy. The classification methods include maximum likelihood classifier (MLC), decision trees (DT), and support vector machines (SVMs). The results show that DT and SVMs provide the highest overall accuracy and kappa values over MLC. Classification using the time-window method was statistically significant when comparing kappa values and visually, images classified using the correct training library for a time-window displayed higher agreement with the reference data. Flooding extent was high for 2014 but low in 2015 and 2016, indicating a decreasing trend. DTs provided better inundation maximums compared to SVMs and therefore is the reason that DT are the best classification technique. The results will provide planners with information regarding the extent of flooding in the CRB and where waterborne diseases occur in the region. A new classification technique is also developed for the remote sensing literature.

In 2008 flooding occurred over a majority of Iowa, damaging homes, displacing residents, and taking lives. In the wake of this event, the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) was charged with the investigation of distributed flood mitigation strategies to reduce the frequency and magnitude of peak flows in Iowa. This dissertation is part of the several studies developed by the IFC and focused on the application of a coupled physics based modeling platform, to quantify the coupled benefits of distributed flood mitigation strategies on the reduction of peak flows in an agricultural watershed. Additional investigation into tile drainage and terraces, illustrated the hydrologic impact of each commonly applied agricultural practice. The effect of each practice was represented in numerical simulations through a parameter adjustment. Systems were analyzed at the field scale, to estimate representative parameters, and applied at the watershed scale. The impact of distributed flood mitigation wetlands reduced peak flows by 4 % to 17 % at the outlet of a 45 km2 watershed. Variability in reduction was a product of antecedent soil moisture, 24-hour design storm total depth, and initial structural storage capacity. The highest peak flow reductions occurred in scenarios with dry soil, empty project storage, and low rainfall depths. Peak flow reductions were estimated to dissipate beyond a total drainage area of 200 km2, approximately 2 km downstream of the small watershed outlet. A numerical tracer analysis identified the contribution of tile drainage to stream flow (QT/Q) which varied between 6 % and 71 % through an annual cycle. QT/Q responded directly to meteorological forcing. Precipitation driven events produced a strong positive logarithmic correlation between QT/Q and drainage area. The addition of precipitation into the system saturated near surface soils, increased lateral soil water movement, and reduced the contribution of instream tile flow. A negative logarithmic trend in QT/Q to drainage area persisted in non-event durations. Simulated gradient terraces reduced and delayed peak flows in subcatchments of less than 3 km2 of drainage area. The hydrographs were shifted responding to rainfall later than non-terraced scenarios, while retaining the total volumetric outflow over longer time periods. The effects of dense terrace systems quickly dissipated, and found to be inconsequential at a drainage area of 45 km2. Beyond the analysis of individual agricultural features, this work assembled a framework to analyze the feature at the field scale for implementation at the watershed scale. It showed large scale simulations reproduce field scale results well. The product of this work was, a systematic hydrologic characterization of distributed flood mitigation structures, pattern tile drainage, and terrace systems facilitating the simulation of each practices in a physically-based coupled surface-subsurface model.

The Amazonian wetlands of Bolivia, known as the Llanos de Moxos, are believed to play a crucial role in regulating the upper Madeira hydrological cycle, the most important southern tributary of the Amazon River. In addition to its rich natural diversity, the Llanos were the setting for many complex pre-Columbian societies. Because the area is vast and sparsely populated, the hydrological functioning of the wetlands is poorly known. In this thesis we show the feasibility of using multi-temporal flood mapping, based on optical (MODIS M*D09A1) and satellite altimetry (ENVISAT RA-2 and SARAL Altika altimeters) to characterize and monitor flood dynamics and to optimize floodplain simulations within a hydrological model (MHD-INPE model). Initially we analyzed the hydrometeorological configurations that led to the major floods of 2007, 2008 and 2014 in the upper Madeira Basin; Then, with the inclusion of altimetric information, which provided a vertical component for the two-dimensional flood maps, we analyzed the flood dynamics for the whole 2001-2014 period, including both extension and water stage variations that allowed to have initial surface water storage estimations. Finally, we critically analyzed how numerical modeling of the wetlands can be improved using additional remote sensing techniques. Our results showed that large floods are the result of the superimposition of flood waves from major sub-basins of the region and the strong influence of the occurrence of intense rainfall over saturated areas. We had identified relevant features of the flood regime, identifying three groups with particular characteristics in function of its connectivity and dependence to the Andes and piedmonts or to local processes and classified the hydraulic function of the wetlands based on remote sensed imagery. Finally, we demonstrate that remote sensing information is of major importance for improving floodplain simulations using hydrological models. However, there are still clear limitations in the existent remote sensed products for achieving seamless predictions of the hydrological behavior of the Llanos under changing climate.<br>As extensas terras úmidas da Amazonia Boliviana, conhecidas como Llanos de Moxos, desempenham um papel crucial na regulação do ciclo hidrológico do Alto Madeira, o mais importante tributário do sudoeste da Bacia Amazônica. Além de sua riqueza e diversidade natural, os Llanos de Moxos foram o cenário para o desenvolvimento de complexas sociedades pré-colombinas. Devido a área ser extensa e pouco povoada, o funcionamento hidrológico destas terras úmidas é pouco conhecido. Nesta tese mostrou-se a viabilidade do uso de mapeamento multitemporal baseado em imagens ópticas (MODIS M*D09A1) e altimetria por satélite (ENVISAT RA-2 and SARAL AltiKa) para caracterizar e monitorar dinâmicas de inundação e otimizar simulações de planícies de inundação dentro de um modelo hidrológico (o modelo MHD-INPE). Inicialmente analisamos as configurações hidrometeorológicas que levaram aos grandes eventos de inundação dos anos 2007, 2008 e 2014 no Alto Madeira. Em seguida, com a inclusão de informação altimétrica, que forneceu o componente vertical aos mapas de inundação bidimensionais, analisamos as dinâmicas de inundação para o período 2001-2014, incluindo extensão e variações de profundidade das inundações, o que permitiu estimar de armazenamento de água superficial nas planícies. Finalmente analisamos criticamente como a simulação numérica das planícies pode ser otimizada com informação de sensoriamento remoto. Identificamos, baseados em informações de sensoriamento remoto e altimetria, três zonas diferenciadas em função de sua conectividade e dependência aos Andes ou a processos locais. Finalmente, demonstramos que a informação de sensoriamento remoto é de grande importância para a melhoria de simulações de planícies de inundação. No entanto, ainda existem limitações claras nos produtos de sensoriamento remoto para alcançar previsões exatas do comportamento hidrológico dos Llanos de Moxos.

The thesis comprises two separate journal articles that together form a coherent body of work. In this thesis, the key physical processes responsible for the 23-26 September 2012 UK floods are investigated using a case study approach. The cyclone responsible for the floods developed near the Azores on 20¬-22 September following the interaction between an equatorward-moving potential vorticity (PV) streamer and tropical storm Nadine. Convectively-driven latent heat release associated with the developing cyclone reduced upper-level PV and resulted in the fracture of the PV streamer into a discrete anomaly as the cyclone intensified. In Paper 1, convection-permitting model simulations and diabatic heating rate and PV tendency calculations along trajectories demonstrate that deposition heating strongly reduced upper-level PV in the vicinity of the PV streamer, contributing to its fracture into a discrete anomaly. The cyclone deepened further over the UK on 23-26 September, ahead of a second upper-level PV anomaly. In Paper 2, sensitivity simulations of the storm are presented. PV inversion is used to modify the strength and position of the PV anomaly in the initial conditions and to examine whether the event could have been even more extreme with different upper-level forcing. Results show that quasigeostrophic forcing for ascent ahead of the PV anomaly contributed to the maintenance of the rainfall band over the UK. Counterintuitively however, strengthening the upper-level forcing produced a shallower cyclone with lower rainfall totals. Instead of moving eastward over the UK to interact with the cyclone, the strengthened anomaly rotated cyclonically around a large-scale trough over Iceland, resulting in a fragmented rainfall band. The counterintuitive results suggest that the verifying analysis represents almost the highest-impact scenario possible for this flooding event.

Volunteers are important contributors to response and recovery. Little is known about their engagement, particularly in terms of comparing the engagement of response volunteers to recovery volunteers. This study sought to explore volunteer engagement in response and recovery in the case of flooding experienced by a number of communities in East Texas following flooding in 2016. Data was gathered through interviews with 72 response and recovery volunteers and key informants, an analysis of key documents, and first-hand observations. This study developed a list of factors that were found to explain volunteer engagement in East Texas and factors suggested by the literature. These factors should be systematically tested in the future to expand our understanding of volunteer engagement.<br>University of Colorado Natural Hazards Center (Grant)

Counter-Current Flow Limitation (CCFL) is of importance for PWR safety analyses in several accident scenarios connected with loss of coolant. Basing on the experiences obtained during a first series of hot leg tests now new experiments on counter-current flow limitation were conducted in the TOPFLOW pressure vessel. The test series comprises air-water tests at 1 and 2 bar as well as steam-water tests at 10, 25 and 50 bar. During the experiments the flow structure was observed along the hot leg model using a high-speed camera and web-cams. In addition pressure was measured at several positions along the horizontal part and the water levels in the reactor-simulator and steam-generator-simulator tanks were determined. This report documents the experimental setup including the description of operational and special measuring techniques, the experimental procedure and the data obtained. From these data flooding curves were obtained basing on the Wallis parameter. The results show a slight shift of the curves in dependency of the pressure. In addition a slight decrease of the slope was found with increasing pressure. Additional investigations concern the effects of hysteresis and the frequencies of liquid slugs. The latter ones show a dependency on pressure and the mass flow rate of the injected water. The data are available for CFD-model development and validation.

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to increase the knowledge of the complexity of a crisis team consisting of multiple government. Furthermore, the consequences of the complexity on the sensemaking and sensegiving processes, regarding the crisis team in a natural disaster. Method: To be able to answer the questions regarding this study, the empirical data has been collected through six (6) interviews. The researchers for this study have applied a case study on the floodings of Mälaren December 2019. Therefore, the interviews have been done with the persons within this crisis team. Empiricism and Analysis: The theoretical framework that has been applied for the analysis of this study consists of three main topics, complexity, sensemaking and sensegiving. Conclusions: The final conclusions of this study identify that there are multiple factors of complexity that affect the sensemaking and sensegiving process. These complexity factors are: routines, preexperiences, excellence in specific field, terminology, missions, mandate and hierarchy. These complexity factors create frictions and possibilities for the crisis team in regard of the consequences of the complexity factors on the sensemaking and sensegiving processes.<br>Syfte: Syftet med studien är att skapa en ökad förståelse för komplexitetens påverkan på den meningsskapande och meningsgivande processen. Samt hur detta påverkar en krisgrupp bestående av flertalet myndigheter i en hantering av en naturkatastrof. Metod: För att besvara studiens frågeställningar har det empiriska materialet samlats in genom en kvalitativ metod, i form av sex semistrukturerade intervjuer. Då forskarna för denna studie har tillämpat en fallstudie grundar sig studien på översvämningskriserna i december 2019. Därmed genomfördes intervjuerna på respondenter som representerade olika myndigheter som samverkat i detta fall. Empiri och analys: Det underlag som använts till studiens analys är den teoretiska referensramen som omfattar litteratur om komplexitet, meningsskapande och meningsgivande. Slutsatser: De slutsatser som identifierades var att komplexa faktorer hade en påverkan på meningsskapande och meningsgivande processerna. Dessa huvudsakliga faktorer identifierades som: rutiner, tidigare erfarenheter, spetskompetenser, terminologier, uppdrag, mandat och hierarki. Dessa komplexa faktorer gör att meningsskapande och meningsgivande processerna skapar friktioner och möjligheter för krisgruppen.

Les «Niayes», zones humides côtières du Sénégal constituent des écosystèmes fragiles, richesen biodiversité tout en étant traditionnellement des zones de maraîchage dans unenvironnement sahélien. La grande sécheresse des années 1970 qui a frappé l’ensemble despays du Sahel, s’est répercutée sur les Niayes par un afflux de populations rurales venant del’intérieur du pays pour y trouver des moyens de subsistance. Outre la sécheresse, cettemigration massive a considérablement augmenté la pression foncière et engendré à la fois uneurbanisation mal maîtrisée, notamment autour des grandes agglomérations, et une mise envaleur agricole; les deux portant atteinte à la valeur environnementale de ces écosystèmescôtiers. Depuis quelques années, on assiste à des hivernages particulièrement pluvieux. Ceretour pluviométrique intervenant dans des zones urbanisées de façon anarchique provoquedes inondations accompagnées de conditions sanitaires précaires pour les populations les plusdéfavorisées. A la variabilité pluviométrique, risque d’apparence naturel, s’joutent desfacteurs de risques anthropiques comme l’aménagement du territoire non maîtrisé, le nonrespectdu cadre réglementaire, diverses pollutions d’origine agricole et industrielle.Cette thèse, après avoir introduit la notion de zone humide et avoir présenté les Niayes de laGrande Côte en général et des trois zones d’étude focus (Pikine, banlieue de Dakar ; Mboro,région de Thiès; Saint-Louis), retrace leurs problèmes environnementaux et les différentespolitiques d’environnement. L’évolution de l’occupation du sol des Niayes est étudiée parrecours à l’imagerie satellitale pour la période 1986-2010 pour la confronter à la gestion deces écosystèmes sensibles et s’interroger sur la pertinence des politiques mises en place dansun esprit de développement durable<br>The “Niayes”, coastal wetlands of Senegal, constitute fragile ecosystems that are rich inbiodiversity while traditionally being gardening areas in the “Sahelien” environment. The bigdrought of the 1970s that struck all the Sahel countries also affected the “Niayes” by an influxof rural populations coming from inside the country in search of livelihood. Besides theextreme drought, mass migration considerably increased the proprietary pressure and at thesame time generated an uncontrolled urbanization, especially around the big agglomerationsand agricultural development: both of them undermine the environmental value of thesecoastal ecosystems. In recent years, we have witnessed particularly rainy seasons. This returneof rainfall involved in urbanized areas causes flooding, accompanied by precarious sanitaryconditions for the most unprivileged populations. The rainfall variability, risk of naturalappearance, is added to anthropogenic risk factors such as the non-mastered regionalplanning, the failure of the regulatory framework, and the pollution from various agriculturaland industrial sources.This thesis, after having introduced the concept of wet zones and having presented the Niayesof the Great Coast in general, and of the three study areas (Pikine, outskirts of Dakar; Mboro,Thies region; and Saint-Louis) in particular, traces their environmental problems and variouspolitical differences. Land use of the Niayes is analysed by using remote sensing data for theperiod 1986-2010 to confront its evolution to the management of the sensible ecosystems andquestion the relevance of the implemented politics in the spirit of sustainable development

Cette thèse étudie la conception et l’évolution du régime de régulation de la sûreté nucléaire en France entre 1945 et 2017. En nous appuyant sur le concept de régime de régulation (Hood et al, 2001), nous avons proposé une modélisation qui permet d’identifier trois périodes, correspondant à trois « philosophies » : la première (19451969) voit la formation d’un embryon de régime de régulation au sein du CEA marqué par « l’expérimentation et l’autocontrôle ». La seconde, la « raisonnable souplesse » (19691986), est marquée par une réorganisation institutionnelle mais laisse de nombreuses marges de manœuvre aux experts et exploitants, dans un contexte de développement industriel intensif. Enfin, la troisième période (1986-2017) voit le développement d’un régime « en recherche d’auditabilité », produit d’une hybridation entre le régime de la « raisonnable souplesse » et un idéaltype standardisé répondant aux bonnes pratiques internationales (ouverture, transparence et indépendance du régulateur et de l’expert). Pour expliquer les évolutions du régime, nous nous sommes focalisés sur une de ses composantes, les règles, analysées comme des instruments de régulation, et avons qualifié de « travail de régulation », l’ensemble des activités et interactions d’un groupe d’acteurs qui agissent pour concevoir, transformer et implémenter ces instruments (pour notre cas, les règles et guides en matière d’inondation). Nous défendons l’idée que ce travail de régulation, à la fois cognitif, politique, social et organisationnel, a pour effet, au-delà de la production d’un instrument, d’explorer des évolutions du régime de régulation, tout en construisant les savoirs mobilisés dans les instruments de régulation, et simultanément, le collectif interorganisationnel qui les partage. Ce processus expliquerait la relative lenteur du processus d’hybridation en cours<br>This thesis studies the design and evolution of the risk regulation regime of nuclear safety in France between 1945 and 2017. Based on the concept of “risk regulation regimes” (Hood et al, 2001), we propose a model that identifies three periods, corresponding to three types of "philosophies". During the first period (1945-1969), an embryonic regulatory regime developed within CEA is characterized by "experimentation and autocontrol". The second period of "reasonable flexibility" (1969-1986) is marked by an institutional reorganization but leaves many room for maneuver to experts and operators, in a context of intensive industrial development. Finally, during the third period (1986-2017), a regime "in search of auditability" is the product of hybridization between the regime of "reasonable flexibility" and a standardized regime responding to international good practice (openness, transparency, and regulator’s and expert’s independence). To explain the evolution of the regime, we focus on one of its components, the rules, which we analyze as regulatory instruments, and we describe as "regulatory work" all activities and interactions of a group of agents who act to design, transform and implement these instruments (for our case, flooding rules and guides). We argue that regulatory work is at the same time cognitive, political, social and organizational, and, beyond producing an instrument, it results in exploring evolutions of the regulation regime, while building both the knowledge mobilized in regulatory instruments and interorganizational collective that shares them. This process would explain the relative slowness of the ongoing hybridization process

Der Werkstatttag für Bestandserhaltung fand am 20. September 2012 in Tharandt statt, am Standort Forstwissenschaften der TU Dresden und der SLUB, der 2002 von den Regenfluten aus dem Erzgebirge besonders stark betroffen war. Zur Fortbildung „Kultureinrichtungen nach der Jahrhundertflut im Jahr 2002 – Rückblicke und Schlussfolgerungen“ kamen 45 Teilnehmer aus Sachsen, Berlin und Brandenburg, darunter Vertreter aus damals betroffenen Einrichtungen und den seither gegründeten Notfallverbünden, aber auch aus der vom Neiße-Hochwasser 2010 heimgesuchten Lausitz mit großen Schäden in Zittau, in Görlitz und im Kloster St. Marienthal.

Cette thèse de doctorat porte sur l'analyse des dommages et sur l'évaluation des coûts induits sur les habitations par les submersions marines. L'étude se base sur les données d'assurance de deux évènements récents ayant touché la France et causé des submersions sur les côtes bretonnes et atlantiques : les tempêtes Johanna (mars 2008) et Xynthia (février 2010).Dans un premier temps, l'analyse des données d'expertise et d'indemnisation d'assurance, en lien avec celle des paramètres de l'aléa et des enjeux exposés, a eu pour but la meilleure compréhension des différents types de dommages, et l'explication des coûts observés. En parallèle, un travail de modélisation de l'aléa a été réalisé à une échelle régionale, afin de déterminer des indicateurs des forçages météo-marins, et à une échelle locale, afin de préciser les processus d'endommagement sur les sites étudiés pour les deux tempêtes. La caractérisation de la vulnérabilité et de la valeur des enjeux (coûts de construction) a été menée à l'aide de différents paramètres issus de bases de données nationales (INSEE et IGN) et de campagnes de terrain.Dans un second temps, les informations recueillies ont permis la construction de modèles empiriques de prédiction du coût des dommages aux habitations spécifiques à l'aléa submersion marine, outils aujourd'hui inexistants en France. Les différents types de modèles testés sont basés sur des approches statistiques univariées (fonctions d'endommagement) et multivariées. L'apport des données d'assurance à la réalisation de tels modèles est discuté, et des recommandations ainsi que des perspectives de recherche sont évoquées, afin de rendre ces modèles opérationnels et d'augmenter leur capacité de prédiction des coûts d'évènements catastrophiques futurs.

Les submersions marines d’origine météorologique sont des catastrophes naturelles majeures, responsables chaque année de milliers de morts et de milliards d’euros de dégâts. La partie centrale du Golfe de Gascogne est un territoire particulièrement vulnérable à cet aléa, comme nous l’a rappelé la forte submersion engendrée par la tempête Xynthia en 2010. L’objectif de ce travail est d’améliorer la compréhension des surcotes et des submersions marines dans cette zone de France dans une approche pluridisciplinaire mêlant la géomorphologie, l’océanographie et l’analyse d’archives historiques. Afin de juger du caractère exceptionnel de Xynthia, une recherche de l’ensemble des submersions marines qui ont affecté la région d’étude depuis 500 ans a été menée. La modélisation numérique des surcotes des 5 tempêtes engendrant des submersions au 20ème siècle, révélées par ces recherches, montre que des conditions météo-marines variées ont induit des niveaux d’eau et des submersions comparables à ceux provoqués par Xynthia. Ce constat est en désaccord avec les estimations de périodes de retour de niveau marin extrêmes basées sur l’analyse statistique de mesures marégraphiques et met en avant l’apport de l’approche historique dans de telles problématiques. Devant la forte vulnérabilité des Pertuis Charentais aux submersions marines, la modélisation statique de la submersion marine, méthode simple mais néanmoins fréquemment utilisée pour estimer l’extension des zones inondées, a été évaluée. Cette méthode fournit de bonnes estimations de l’extension de l’inondation dans les zones de faibles altitudes caractérisées par une faible distance entre le trait de côte et la limite continentale de la zone inondable, mais mauvaises lorsque cette distance est grande. En effet, lorsque l’inondation se propage loin du trait de côte, la dynamique de l’écoulement ne peut plus être négligée sur ces grandes distances. Afin d’anticiper de futures submersions, deux configurations des digues ont été testées par modélisation numérique au travers de l’exemple de l’estuaire de la Charente. Les hauteurs d’eau et l’inondation de Xynthia sont simulées en augmentant la hauteur des digues de l’estuaire, empêchant toute inondation des zones basses adjacentes ; puis en abaissant les digues bordant l’estuaire au niveau des plus hautes marées astronomiques et en créant une seconde rangée de digues protégeant les zones habitées. Cette seconde configuration permet l’inondation des zones non habitées mais empêche l’inondation des zones à enjeux importants, comme la ville de Rochefort. Il est montré que la rehausse de l’ensemble des digues entraîne des niveaux d’eau supérieurs de 1.2 m à Rochefort par rapport à la simulation sans modification de digues, alors que l’abaissement de celles-ci et la protection des zones à forts enjeux ne modifient pas la hauteur d’eau dans l’estuaire. Ainsi, la rehausse des digues côtières n’est pas une solution systématique car la protection contre l’inondation de toutes les zones côtières peut augmenter la vulnérabilité des zones à forts enjeux<br>Storm-induced coastal flooding are major natural disasters, responsible for thousands of deaths and billions of euros of damages each year. The central part of the Bay of Biscay is vulnerable to this hazard, as recently shown by the strong flooding induced by Xynthia in 2010. This study aims to improve the understanding of storm surges and coastal floods in this area of France, using several methods such as numerical or static modeling. To assess the uniqueness of Xynthia, historical researches of coastal floods affecting the study area for 500 years was conducted. Numerical modeling of the storm surges related to 5 storms of the 20th century revealed by these researches shows that various meteo-oceanic settings induced water levels and coastal floods comparable to those caused by Xynthia. This finding challenges return periods estimations of extreme sea levels based on statistical analysis of tide gauges measurements and highlights the contribution of the historical approach to such issues. Given the high vulnerability on coastal floods of Pertuis Charentais, static modeling, a simple but frequently used method to estimate the extension of flooded areas is evaluated. This analysis shows that this method provides good estimations of flood extents in low-lying areas characterized by a small distance between the shoreline and the continental limits of the lower area, but bad estimations when this distance is large. These poor performances when floods spread away from the coastline are explained by the dynamics of the flow, which can no longer be ignored. Two coastal defenses strategies are investigated in the Charente-river Estuary by numerical modeling. Water levels and coastal floods induced by Xynthia are simulated with increased dikes height, preventing flooding of adjacent low-lying areas, and then with dikes lowered to highest high spring tide height and with a second rank of dikes preventing flooding of important issues areas, such as the town of Rochefort. It is shown that raising dikes leads to higher levels of 1.2 m in Rochefort compared to the simulation without changing dikes, while protecting issues do not affect the water level in the estuary. Thus, it is demonstrated that the systematic raising of dikes is not a solution because it can increase the vulnerability of important issues areas

Recently, oil prices and oil demand are rising and are projected to continue to rise over the long term. These trends create great potential for enhanced oil recovery methods that could improve the recovery efficiency of reservoirs all over the world. The greatest challenges for enhanced oil recovery involve the technical uncertainty with design and performance, and the high financial risk. Pilot tests can help mitigate the risk associated with such projects; however, there is a question about the value of information from the tests. Decision support can provide information about the value of an enhanced oil recovery project, which can assist with alleviating financial risk and create more potential opportunities for the technology. The first objective of this study is to create a new simplified method for modeling oil production histories of enhanced oil recovery methods. The method is designed to satisfy three criteria: 1) it allows for quick simulations based on only a few physically meaningful input parameters; 2) it can create almost any potential type of realistic production history that may be realized during a project; and 3) it applies to all nonthermal enhanced oil recovery methods, including surfactant-polymer, alkali-surfactant polymer, and CO₂ floods. The developed method is capable of creating realistic curves with only four unique parameters. The second objective is to evaluate the predictive method against data from pilot and field scale projects. The evaluations demonstrate that the method can fit most realistic production histories as well as provided ranges for the input parameters. A sensitivity analysis is also performed to assist with determining how all of the parameters involved with the predictive method and the economic model influence the forecasted value for a project. The analysis suggests that the price of oil, change in oil saturation, and the size of the reservoir are the most influential parameters. The final objective is to establish a method for a decision analysis that determines the value of information of a pilot for enhanced oil recovery. The analysis uses the predictive method and economic model for determining economic utilities for every potential outcome. It uses a decision-based method to ensure that the non-informative prior probability distributions have an unbiased, consistent, and rational starting point. A simple example demonstrating the process is discussed and it is used to show that a pilot test provides some valuable information when there is minimal prior information. For future work it is recommended that more evaluations are performed, the decision analysis is expanded to include more input parameters, and a rational and logical method is developed for determining likelihood functions from existing information.<br>text

Accurate simulation of chemical flooding requires a detailed understanding of numerous complex mechanisms and model parameters where grid size has a substantial impact upon results. In this research we show the effect of grid size on parameters such as phase behavior, interfacial tension, surfactant dilution and salinity gradient for chemical flooding of a very heterogeneous oil reservoir. The effective propagation of the surfactant slug in the reservoir is of paramount importance and the salinity gradient is a key factor in ensuring the process effectiveness. The larger the grid block size, the greater the surfactant dilution, which in turn erroneously reduces the effectiveness of the process indicated with low simulated oil recoveries. We show that the salinity gradient is not adequately captured by coarse grid simulations of heterogeneous reservoirs and this leads to performance predictions with lower recovery compared to fine grid simulations. Due to the highly coupled, nonlinear interactions of the many chemical and physical processes involved in chemical flooding, it is better to use fine-grid simulations rather than coarse grids with upscaled physical properties whenever feasible. However, the upscaling methodology for chemical flooding presented in this work accounts approximately for some of the more important effects, as demonstrated by comparison of fine grid and coarse grid results and is very different than the way other enhanced oil recovery methods are upscaled. This is a step towards making better performance predictions of chemical flooding for large field projects where it is not currently feasible to perform the large number of simulations required to properly consider different designs, optimization, risk and uncertainty using fine-grid simulations.<br>text

Waterflooding has been used for many decades as a way of recovering oil from petroleum reservoirs. Historically the salinity of the injection water has not been regarded as a key variable in determining the amount of oil recovered. In recent years, however, evidence of increased oil recovery by injection of low salinity water has been observed in laboratories and fields. The technique is getting wider attention in the oil industry because it is more cost-effective than other EOR techniques. The present work demonstrates the synergy of low salinity water flooding and polymer flooding in the laboratory scale. The use of low salinity polymer solution in polymer flooding has significant benefits because considerably lower amount of polymer is required to make the solution of a target viscosity. Low salinity polymer flooding can also increase oil recovery by lowering residual oil saturation and achieve faster oil recovery by improving sweep efficiency. Several coreflood experiments were conducted to study the efficiency of low salinity water flooding and low salinity polymer flooding in mixed-wet Berea sandstone cores. All the core samples were aged with a crude oil at 90oC for 30-60 days before the tests. All the polymer floods were conducted in the tertiary mode. A synthetic formation brine (33,800 ppm) was chosen for high salinity water and a NaCl brine (1,000 ppm) for low salinity water. Medium molecular weight HPAM polymer, FlopaamTM 3330S was used due to the low/moderate permeability of the Berea sandstone cores used in this study. Coreflood tests indicate that injection of low salinity polymer solution reduces residual oil saturation by 5-10% over that of the high salinity waterflood. A part of the residual saturation reduction is due to low salinity and this reduction is achieved in less pore volumes of injection in the presence of polymers. Effluent ion analysis from both low salinity water flooding and low salinity polymer flooding showed a slight increase in divalent cation concentrations after the polymer breakthrough. Cation bridging may play a role in oil wettability and low salinity injection desorbs some of these cations.<br>text

This Thesis presents the results of phase behavior calculations and simulation of asphaltene precipitation, flocculation, and deposition in five Middle-Eastern wells from different fields, based on a reliable experimental data provided for this purpose. The asphaltene precipitation, flocculation, and deposition have been simulated throughout the primary (pressure depletion), secondary (Waterflooding) and tertiary recovery (CO₂ injection) stages. Asphaltene precipitation becomes a serious problem especially when it causes plugging of the formation, wellbore, or production facilities, which will significantly affect the productivity and final recovery of the area. To help preventing asphaltene precipitation a bottomhole pressure higher than the asphaltene onset pressure (AOP) has been applied. Also, water and CO₂ injection has provided enough support for pressure maintenance, which helps in preventing asphaltene. Several scenarios were tested to investigate and identify the cases with lowest asphaltene precipitation and higher recovery. It has been considered obligatory to have a representative numerical simulation model that can predict the phase behavior of asphaltene precipitation, flocculation, and deposition accurately. The first part of this thesis includes a comprehensive literature review of asphaltene precipitation flocculation, and deposition that include asphaltene structure, models and prevention techniques. The second part of the thesis includes a detailed study of modeling asphaltene precipitation phase behavior utilizing experimental and real field data obtained from five Middle-Eastern wells from different fields. Experimental data include measurements of asphaltene onset pressure (AOP), saturation pressure, and PVT data. Asphaltene precipitation was modeled by using WinProp (a phase behavior utility from CMG) which uses Nghiem solid model. Saturation pressures, PVT, and AOP data were used to match Peng-Robinson EOS and the precipitation model was matched by the experimental data of AOP. The third part of the thesis includes a one-dimensional simulation comparison study of asphaltene precipitation between three different compositional simulators; UTCOMP, ECLIPSE and CMG/GEM. The last part of the thesis includes a full field scale study based on a heterogeneous three-dimensional cartesian single-well model. The objective of this study was to assess the effect of asphaltene precipitation, flocculation, and deposition in the well productivity and the economic impacts related to it. Different production practices were applied to define the most appropriate and efficient production strategy. This study includes a discussion and comparison of production rates with and without asphaltene precipitation, flocculation, and deposition and a comparison of asphaltene precipitation, flocculation, and deposition at different times using different bottomhole and production rate constraints. Several cases (i.e., WAG cycles, completion, target layers of injection, etc.) will be tested to come up with the optimum completion and operating strategy in the presences asphaltene. Despite the work devoted to understanding this subject, asphaltene still represents a challenging and unresolved problem. This thesis will help bridge the gap of this limited understanding in the field of asphaltene.<br>text

The depletion of oil reserves and higher oil prices has made chemical enhanced oil recovery (EOR) methods more attractive in recent years. Because of geological heterogeneity, unfavorable mobility ratio, and capillary forces, conventional oil recovery (including water flooding) leaves behind much oil in reservoir, often as much as 70% OOIP (original oil in place). Surfactant/polymer flooding targets these bypassed oil left after waterflood by reducing water mobility and oil/water interfacial tension. The complexity and uncertainty of reservoir characterization make the design and implementation of a robust and effective surfactant/polymer flooding to be quite challenging. Accurate numerical simulation prior to the field surfactant/polymer flooding is essential for a successful design and implementation of surfactant/polymer flooding. A recently developed unified polymer viscosity model was implemented into our existing polymer module within our in-house reservoir simulator, the Implicit Parallel Accurate Reservoir Simulator (IPARS). The new viscosity model is capable of simulating not only the Newtonian and shear-thinning rheology of polymer solution but also the shear-thickening behavior, which may occur near the wellbore with high injection rates when high molecular weight Partially Hydrolyzed Acrylamide (HPAM) polymers are injected. We have added a full capability of surfactant/polymer flooding to TRCHEM module of IPARS using a simplified but mechanistic and user-friendly approach for modeling surfactant/water/oil phase behavior. The features of surfactant module include: 1) surfactant component transport in porous media; 2) surfactant adsorption on the rock; 3) surfactant/oil/water phase behavior transitioned with salinity of Type II(-), Type III, and Type II(+) phase behaviors; 4) compositional microemulsion phase viscosity correlation and 5) relative permeabilities based on the trapping number. With the parallel capability of IPARS, commercial scale simulation of surfactant/polymer flooding becomes practical and affordable. Several numerical examples are presented in this dissertation. The results of surfactant/polymer flood are verified by comparing with the results obtained from UTCHEM, a three-dimensional chemical flood simulator developed at the University of Texas at Austin. The parallel capability and scalability are also demonstrated.<br>text

Polymer flooding is economically successful in reservoirs where the water flood mobility ratio is high, and/or the reservoir heterogeneity is adverse, because of the improved sweep resulting from the mobility-controlled oil displacement. The performance of a polymer flood can be further improved if the process is dynamically controlled using updated reservoir models and a closed-loop production optimization scheme is implemented. However, the formulation of an optimal production strategy is based on uncertain production forecasts resulting from uncertainty in spatial representation of reservoir heterogeneity, geologic scenarios, inaccurate modeling, scaling, just to cite a few factors. Assessing the uncertainty in reservoir modeling and transferring it to uncertainty in production forecasts is crucial for efficiently controlling the process. This dissertation presents a feedback control framework that (1) assesses uncertainty in reservoir modeling and production forecasts, (2) updates the prior uncertainty in reservoir models by integrating continuously monitored production data, and (3) formulates optimal injection/production rates for the updated reservoir models. This approach focuses on assessing uncertainty in reservoir modeling and production forecasts originated mainly by uncertain geologic scenarios and spatial variations of reservoir properties (heterogeneity). This uncertainty is mapped in a metric space created by comparing multiple reservoir models and measuring differences in effective heterogeneity related to well connectivity and well responses characteristic of polymer flooding. Continuously monitored production data is used to refine the uncertainty map using a Bayesian inversion algorithm. In contrast to classical approach of history matching by model perturbation, a model selection problem is implemented where highly probable reservoir models are selected to represent the posterior uncertainty in production forecasts. The model selection procedure yields the posterior uncertainty associated with the reservoir model. The production optimization problem is solved using the posterior models and a proxy model of polymer flooding to rapidly evaluate the objective function and response surfaces to represent the relationship between well controls and an economic objective function. The value of the feedback control framework is demonstrated with two examples of polymer flooding where the economic performance was maximized.<br>text

A counter current annular flow experiment was performed to determine flooding conditions for varying degrees of subcooling using steam and water. The findings can be used in reactor safety codes to provide an improved model of flooding during accident analysis. The test section is a stainless steel tube which is approximately a 5/16 scale version of a pressurized water reactor (PWR) surge line. The water flows in an annular film down the inside of the tube and steam flows upward through the annulus. Flooding is the point at which the water film reverses direction and begins to travel upward. Flooding tests were conducted at atmospheric pressure for water flow rates between 3.5 gallons per minute (GPM) and 11 GPM and water inlet temperatures between 35 degrees C and 97 degrees C. The data obtained at high water subcooling indicate a significant departure from accepted flooding correlations developed for air-water systems which is expected because vapor condensation alters the steam inlet flow rate needed to induce flooding. The data more closely follow air-water data at low subcooling. Such data has not been seen in the literature for steam-water flooding experiments in a large diameter vertical tube and will serve as an important benchmark.

With the depletion of the existing reservoirs and the decline in oil discoveries during the last few decades, enhanced oil recovery (EOR) methods have gained a lot of attention. Among the various improved recovery methods, waterflooding is by far the most widely used. However, the presence of reservoir heterogeneity such as high permeability streaks often leads to premature breakthrough and poor sweep resulting in reduced oil recovery. This underscores the need for a prudent reservoir management, in terms of optimal production and injection rates, to maximize recovery. The increasing deployment of smart well completions and i-field has inspired many researchers to develop algorithms to optimize the production/injection rates along intervals of smart wells. However, the application of rate control for other EOR methods has been relatively few. This research aims to extend previous streamline-based rate optimization workflow to polymer flooding and CO2 flooding. The objective of the approach is to maximize sweep efficiency and minimize recycling of injected fluid (polymer/CO2) by delaying its breakthrough. This is achieved by equalizing the front arrival time at the producers using streamline time-of-flight. Arrival time is rescaled to allow for optimization after breakthrough of injected fluid. Additionally, we propose an accelerated production strategy to increase NPV over sweep efficiency maximization case. The optimization is performed under operational and facility constraints using a sequential quadratic programming approach. The geological uncertainty has been accounted via a stochastic optimization framework based on the combination of the expected value and variance of a performance measure from multiple realizations. Synthetic and field examples are used extensively to demonstrate the practical feasibility and robustness of our approach for application to EOR processes.

Between 1850 and 1922, agriculturalists built 1,700 kilometers of levees to convert 250,000 hectares of tidal marsh to farmland where the San Joaquin and Sacramento Rivers enter the San Francisco Bay (the Delta). Drained, farmed and isolated from the water channels, the organic soils behind the levees subsided to elevations as low as 8 meters below sea level, turning "levees" into "dams" that hold back water constantly. Engineers built water transfer projects in the mid-20th century, transferring water from the south Delta to 25 million Californians who now rely on the "dams" accidentally converted into supply channels. In 1972, however, a levee failure caused a salt-water intrusion into the Delta, raising the prominence of the polemic Peripheral Canal which, if built would replace the levees in the trans-Delta water transport role. Levee failures in 2004 (the Delta) and 2005 (New Orleans) have re-ignited the debate, fueled by comments made by public officials who warned that the Delta levees posed more risk of failure than did the pre-Katina Louisiana levees. This background motivates two research questions: What are the social perspectives regarding levee failures of the experts managing the Delta; and what is the history of levee failures that might support their perspectives? The research employed Q-Method to identify and describe four social perspectives: Delta Sustainers, Abandon the Levees, Levee Pragmatists, and Multi-Purpose Levee Advocates. A critical element underlying differences among the perspectives revolved around the perceived history of failures of Delta levees. This dissertation employed semi-structured interviews, archival record searches, and historic map and aerial photograph comparisons to compile a history of 265 levee failures since 1868, many of which are referenced to location, segment, and levee type. In addition, the dissertation compiled a list of emergency repairs and successful flood-fights. The history of failures indicates that important levees of the Delta have performed significantly better than previously identified. Sharing these social perspectives and research results among the key actors addressing Delta issues may lead to improved consensus decisions.

The goal of this research was to study the effect of salinity on the waterflood of initially oil-wet clay-rich sand packs. Two one-foot long sand packs with 8% initial water saturation and 50% porosity were aged in crude oil for two weeks and flooded with either a low salinity (1000 ppm NaCl, pH 6.3) or a high salinity (20000 ppm CaCl, 20000 ppm MgCl, 20000 ppm NaCl, 20000 PPM KCl, pH 6.2) brine. 1D low salinity floods yield an incremental oil recovery of 15% and a significant change in the relative permeability. Initial breakthrough brine analysis showed that the low salinity flood results in more cation exchange activity compared to the high salinity case. A pH change of up to 1.4 point was witnessed for the high salinity case whereas the low salinity case had a 1.1 point pH change. The pH stayed below 7 in both low salinity and high salinity cases. The relative permeability of the low salinity case indicates a more water-wet state than that of the high salinity flood. The 2D study focused on capturing the movement of the water saturation fronts in transparent 2D sand packs via digital recordings. Two-dimensional sand packs of the oil-aged clay-rich sands were constructed in plastic quarter 5-spot models. Secondary water floods were performed. Low salinity flooding yielded higher oil recovery at breakthrough than the high salinity case. There was more areal bypassing in the case of low salinity flooding. It was difficult to pack the 2D cells uniformly which affected the water floods.<br>text

The southern Chukchi and Bering Sea region regularly experiences powerful storms that bring high winds that cause positive and negative water level set-up (storm surges) events. Positive set-up events can cause coastal inundation, sometimes extending far inland for low-relief locations, and negative set-up events can be problematic for shallow-draft marine equipment, such as barges. A ten year record (2004-2014) of water level data is available from a NOAA tide gauging station situated at the Teck Alaska Inc. Red Dog Mine Port Facility located to the north of the Bering Strait on the southwest Chukchi Sea coast. In this thesis these data are used to develop a database of water level set-up (storm surge) events using a novel identification methodology; by adapting fundamental wind storm identification concepts used by Atkinson (2005) and applying them to a water level dataset. The surge event database is then analyzed to identify primary types of events, to derive seasonal patterns and frequencies of occurrence, and to determine likely atmospheric driving mechanisms. There were 44 surge events identified – 21 positive, 23 negative – that tended to occur during the months of November, December, and January; none were recorded in the months May through August. The event typing work suggested four distinct surge patterns. Analysis of weather drivers, performed through visual interpretation of the temporal shape/form of the events and via use of an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, suggested favoured locations for storm systems – the far eastern Chukotka Peninsula for positive set up events (west of Red Dog Dock), and the Alaska Peninsula for negative set ups (south of Red Dog Dock). A storm system situated to the west of the port generates southwest winds that drive positive set-up events, and a storm situated to the south generates easterly winds that drive negative set-up events. The sea level pressure weather patterns for positive set-up surge events are much stronger and shorter lived than for negative set-up events. This work has established an improved understanding of seasonal storm surge for the region and offers a potential basis for the improved forecasting of both positive and negative set-up surge events in the future.<br>Graduate<br>0725

Studying chemical enhanced oil recovery (EOR) in a high-temperature/high-salinity (HT/HS) reservoir will help expand the application of chemical EOR to more challenging environments. Until recently, chemical EOR was not recommended at reservoirs that contain high concentrations of divalent cations without the need to recondition the reservoir by flooding it with less saline/ less hardness brines. This strategy was found ineffective in preparing the reservoir for chemical flooding. Surfactants used for chemical flooding operating in high temperatures tend to precipitate when exposed to high concentrations of divalent cations and will partition to the oil phase at high salinities. In this study amphoteric surfactant was used to replace the traditionally used anionic surfactants. Amphoteric surfactants show higher multivalent cations tolerance with better thermal stability. A modified amphoteric surfactant with lower adsorption properties was evaluated for oil recovery. Organic alkali was used to eliminate the water softening process when preparing the chemical solution and reduce potential scale problems caused by precipitation due to incompatibility between chemical slug containing alkali and formation brine. Using organic alkali helped in minimizing softening required when preparing an alkali-surfactant-polymer (ASP) solution using seawater. Solution prepared with organic alkali showed the least injectivity decline when compared to traditional alkalis (NaOH and Na2CO3) and sodium metaborate. Adding organic alkali helped further reduce IFT values when added to surfactant solution. Amphoteric surfactant was found to produce low IFT values at low concentrations and can operate at high salinity / high hardness conditions. When mixed with polymer it improved the viscosity of the surfactant-polymer (SP) solution when prepared in high salinity mixing water (6% NaCl). When prepared in seawater and tested in reservoir temperature (95°C) no reduction in viscosity was found. Unlike the anionic surfactant that causes reduction in viscosity of the SP solution at reservoir temperature. This will not require increasing the polymer concentration in the chemical slug. Unlike the case when anionic surfactant was used and more polymer need to be added to compensate the reduction in viscosity. Berea sandstone cores show lower recovery compared to dolomite cores. It was also found that Berea cores were more sensitive to polymer concentration and type and injectivity decline can be a serious issue during chemical and polymer injection. Dolomite did not show injectivity decline during chemical and polymer flooding and was not sensitive to the polymer concentration when a polymer with low molecular weight was used. CT scan was employed to study the displacement of oil during ASP, SP, polymer and surfactant flooding. The formation and propagation oil bank was observed during these core flood experiments. ASP and SP flooding showed the highest recovery, and formation and propagation of oil bank was clearer in these experiments compared to surfactant flooding. It was found that in Berea sandstone with a permeability range of 50 to 80 md that the recovery and fluid flow was through some dominating and some smaller channels. This explained the deviation from piston-like displacement, where a sharp change in saturation in part of the flood related to the dominated channels and tapered front with late arrival when oil is recovered from the smaller channels. It was concluded that the recovery in the case of sandstone was dominated by the fluid flow and chemical propagation in the porous media not by the effectiveness of the chemical slug to lower the IFT between the displacing fluid and oil.

Chemical EOR processes such as polymer flooding and surfactant polymer flooding must be designed and implemented in an economically attractive manner to be perceived as viable oil recovery options. The primary expenses associated with these processes are chemical costs which are predominantly controlled by the crude oil properties of a reservoir. Crude oil viscosity dictates polymer concentration requirements for mobility control and can also negatively affect the rheological properties of a microemulsion when surfactant polymer flooding. High microemulsion viscosity can be reduced with the introduction of an alcohol co-solvent into the surfactant formulation, but this increases the cost of the formulation. Experimental research done as part of this study combined the process of hot water injection with ASP flooding as a solution to reduce both crude oil viscosity and microemulsion viscosity. The results of this investigation revealed that when action was taken to reduce microemulsion viscosity, residual oil recoveries were greater than 90%. Hot water flooding lowered required polymer concentrations by reducing oil viscosity and lowered microemulsion viscosity without co-solvent. Laboratory testing of viscous microemulsions in core floods proved to compromise surfactant performance and oil recovery by causing high surfactant retention, high pressure gradients that would be unsustainable in the field, high required polymer concentrations to maintain favorable mobility during chemical flooding, reduced sweep efficiency and stagnation of microemulsions due to high viscosity from flowing at low shear rates. Rough scale-up chemical cost estimations were performed using core flood performance data. Without reducing microemulsion viscosity, field chemical costs were as high as 26.15 dollars per incremental barrel of oil. The introduction of co-solvent reduced chemical costs to as low as 22.01 dollars per incremental barrel of oil. This reduction in cost is the combined result of increasing residual oil recovery and the added cost of an alcohol co-solvent. Heating the reservoir by hot water flooding resulted in combined chemical and heating costs of 13.94 dollars per incremental barrel of oil. The significant drop in cost when using hot water is due to increased residual oil recovery, reduction in polymer concentrations from reduced oil viscosity and reduction of microemulsion viscosity at a fraction of the cost of co-solvent.<br>text

Many attempts have been made to control water conformance. It is very costly to produce, treat and dispose of water, and produced water represents the largest waste stream associated with oil and gas production. The production of large amounts of water results in: (a) the need for more complex water?oil separation; (b) corrosion of wellbore and other equipment; (c) a rapid decline in hydrocarbon production rate and ultimate recovery; and (d) consequently, premature abandonment of a well or field, leaving considerable hydrocarbons unproduced. Sometimes water production results from heterogeneities in the horizontal direction, which leads to uneven movement of the flood front and subsequent early breakthrough of water from high permeability layers. This problem is exacerbated if there is (vertical) hydraulic communication between layers so that crossflow can occur. One of the novel technologies in chemical enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is a gel type called deep diverting gel (DDG), which describes material that functions by plugging thief zones deep from the well where they were being injected. To evaluate the performance of this new treatment method, we will (1) model the treatment methods, (2) conduct economic analysis, and (3) compare different EOR methods. We have conducted relevant literature review about the development, design, modeling and economics of the enhanced oil recovery methods. Schlumberger's Eclipse simulator software has been used for modeling purposes. Modeling runs have demonstrated that placement of a DDG in a high permeability zone provided a blockage that diverted water into lower permeability areas, thus increasing the sweep of target zones. Research results demonstrated that, although higher recovery can be achieved with a polymer flood, the combination of delayed production response and large polymer amounts cause such projects to be less economically favorable than deep gel placement treatments. From results of several sensitivity runs, it can be concluded that plug size and oil viscosity are two determining factors in the efficiency of DDG treatments. For the assumed case, economic analysis demonstrated that DDG has the most positive net present value (NPV), with polymer flooding second and simply continuing the waterflood to its economic limit the least positive NPV.

CO2 has been widely used as a displacement fluid in both immiscible and miscible displacement processes to obtain tertiary recovery from the field. There are several problems associated with the application of CO2 flooding, especially when there is a significant presence of heterogeneous elements, such as fractures, channels and high permeability streaks within the reservoir. With flooding, CO2 will finger through the target zone while leaving most of the residual/trapped oil untouched. As a result, early gas breakthrough has been a very common problem in CO2-related projects, reducing the overall sweep efficiency of CO2 flooding. This research aims at improving the CO2 flood efficiency using cross-linked gel conformance control and CO2 viscosifier technique. A series of coreflood experiment studies have been performed to investigate the possibility of applying CO2 mobility control techniques. Corresponding simulation works have also been carried out to predict the benefits of applying CO2 mobility control techniques in the field. In the laboratory study, the CO2 coreflood system was integrated with the CT (Computed Tomography)-scanner and obtained real-time coreflood images of the CO2 saturation distributions in the core. This system was applied to the research of both cross-linked polymer gel treatment and CO2 viscosifier study and produced images with sharp phase contrasts. For the gel conformance study, promising results were obtained by applying cross-linked gel to eliminate permeability contrast and diverting CO2 into low permeability regions to obtain incremental oil recovery; also studied were the gel strength in terms of leak-off extent with the aid of CT (Computed Tomography) images. For the CO2 viscosifier research, we tested several potential viscosifier chemicals and found out PVAc (Polyvinylacetate)/toluene combination to be the most promising. The follow-up study clearly demonstrates the superiority of viscosified CO2 over neat CO2 in terms of sweep efficiency. This research serves as a preliminary study in understanding advanced CO2 mobility control techniques and will provide insights to future studies on this topic.

The performance of Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) processes is adversely affected by the heterogeneous distribution of flow properties of the rock. The effects of heterogeneity are further highlighted when the mobility ratio between the displacing and the displaced fluids is unfavorable. Polymer flooding aims to mitigate this by controlling the mobility ratio resulting in an increase in the volumetric swept efficiency. However, the design of the polymer injection process has to take into account the uncertainty due to a limited knowledge of the heterogeneous properties of the reservoir. Numerical reservoir models equipped with the most updated, yet uncertain information about the reservoir should be employed to optimize the operational settings. Consequently, the optimal settings are uncertain and should be revised as the model is updated. In this report, a feedback-control scheme is proposed with a model updating step that conditions prior reservoir models to newly obtained dynamic data, and this followed by an optimization step that adjusts well control settings to maximize (or minimize) an objective function. An illustration of the implementation of the proposed closed-loop scheme is presented through an example where the rate settings of a well affected by water coning are adjusted as the reservoir models are updated. The revised control settings yield an increase in the final value of the objective function. Finally, a fast analog of a polymer flooding displacement that traces the movement of random particles from injectors to producers following probability rules that reflect the physics of the actual displacement is presented. The algorithm was calibrated against the full-physics simulation results from UTCHEM, the compositional chemical flow simulator developed at The University of Texas at Austin. This algorithm can be used for a rapid estimation of basic responses such as breakthrough time or recovery factor and to provide a simplified characterization the reservoir heterogeneity. This report is presented to fulfill the requirements to obtain the degree of Master of Science in Engineering under fast track option. It summarizes the research proposal presented for my doctorate studies that are currently ongoing.<br>text

The overall objective of this research was to gain an insight into the challenges encountered during chemical flooding under high hardness conditions. Different aspects of this problem were studied using a combination of laboratory experiments and simulation studies. Chemical Flooding is an important Enhanced Oil Recovery process. One of the major components of the operational expenses of any chemical flooding project, especially Alkali Surfactant Polymer (ASP) flooding is the cost of softening the injection brine to prevent the precipitation of the carbonates of the calcium and magnesium ions which are invariably present in the formation brine. Novel hardness tolerant alkalis like sodium metaborate have been shown to perform well with brines of high salinity and hardness, thereby eliminating the need to soften the injection brine. The first part of this research was aimed at designing an optimal chemical flooding formulation for a reservoir having hard formation brine. Sodium metaborate was used as the alkali in the formulation with the hard brine. Under the experimental conditions, sodium metaborate was found to be inadequate in preventing precipitation in the ASP slug. Factors affecting the ability of sodium metaborate to sequester divalent ions, including its potential limitations under the experimental conditions were studied. The second part of this research studied the factors affecting the ability of novel alkali and chelating agents like sodium metaborate and tetrasodium EDTA to sequester divalent ions. Recent studies have shown that both these chemicals showed good performance in sequestering divalent ions under high hardness conditions. A study of the geochemical species in solution under different conditions was done using the computer program PHREEQC. Sensitivity studies about the effect of the presence of different solution species on the performance of these alkalis were done. The third part of this research focused on field scale mechanistic simulation studies of geochemical scaling during ASP flooding. This is one of the major challenges faced by the oil and gas industry and has been found to occur when sodium carbonate is used as the alkali and the formation brine present in situ has a sufficiently high hardness content. The multicomponent and multiphase compositional chemical flooding simulator, UTCHEM was used to determine the quantity and composition of the scales formed in the reservoir as well as the injection and production wells. Reactions occurring between the injected fluids, in situ fluids and the reservoir rocks were taken into consideration for this study. Sensitivity studies of the effect of key reservoir and process parameters like the physical dispersion and the alkali concentration on the extent of scaling were also done as a part of this study.<br>text

This work investigates the performance of CO₂ soluble surfactants used for CO₂ foam flooding in fractured carbonate reservoirs. Oil recovery associated with the reduction of CO₂ mobility in fractures is assessed by monitoring oil saturation and pressure drops during injection of CO₂ with aqueous surfactant solution in artificially fractured carbonate cores. Distinct novel CO₂ soluble surfactants are evaluated as well as a conventional surfactant. Water flooding and pure CO₂ injection are conducted as baseline. Characterization of fluids and rock are also reported which include Amott test, oil phase behavior and slim tube test. Transport and thermodynamic properties of surfactant and supercritical CO₂ are used to evaluate the process on a core scale using a commercial reservoir simulator.<br>text

碩士<br>國立臺灣大學<br>大氣科學研究所<br>105<br>On 14 June 2015, a severe afternoon thunderstorm event associated with cell merger developed within the Taipei basin, which produced an hourly rainfall of 131 mm/h and resulted in urban-scale flooding. Cloud-resolving numerical simulations were performed to capture reasonably well the development and evolution of the afternoon thunderstorms observed on that day. The mesoscale model WRF was used in this study with the horizontal grid size nesting down to 0.5 km and 55 vertical layers in order to explicitly resolve the deep convection. The merging between three intense convective cells was realistically reproduced by the simulations and the model results were in good agreement with radar observations. The low-level convergence was essential to provide the lifting mechanism necessary for the cell merger. The convergence between the cold-air outflow with see-breeze circulation, as well as the interactions between the two cold-air outflows associated with downdrafts, were the main factors that enhanced the low-level convergence. The formation and development of new convection from the cloud bridge was the main reason for the occurrence of the cloud merger. After the convective cells merged, cold pool heights elevated and cloud radii increased, resulting in this severe thunderstorm event. The influence of latent cooling by evaporation and melting on the occurrence of the cell merger was further analyzed. Evaporation cooling played an important role in the cell merger process, whereas melting cooling played a relatively minor role. However, ice-phase microphysics was still important. The experiments with the removal of local topography (Mount Datun) indicated that the channel effect by Mt. Datun intensified the sea-breeze circulation and then enhanced the low-level convergence within the Taipei basin.

Chemical flooding has been studied for 50 years. However, never have the conditions encouraging its growth been as good as right now. Those conditions being new, improved technology and oil prices high enough to make implementation economical. The objective of this work was to develop economical, robust chemical formulations and processes that recover oil in field pilots when properly implemented. This experimental study goes through the process of testing surfactants to achieve optimal phase behavior, coreflooding with the best chemical formulations, improving the formulation and testing it in more corefloods, and then finally recommending the formulation to be tested in a field pilot. The target reservoir contains a light (34° API, 10 cP), non-reactive oil at about 22° C. The formation is a moderate permeability (50 - 300 mD) sandstone with a high clay content (up to 13%). Different surfactants and surfactant mixtures were tested with the oil including alkyl benzene sulfonates (ABS), Guerbet alcohol sulfates (GAS), alkyl propoxy sulfates, and internal olefin sulfonates (IOS). The best formulation contained 0.75% TDA -13PO-SO₄, 0.25% C₂₀₋₂₄ IOS, 0.75% isobutanol (IBA), 1% Na₂CO₃, all which are mixed in a softened fresh water from a supply well. Corefloods recovered 93% of residual oil from reservoir cores. Core flood experiments were also done with the alkali sodium carbonate to measure the effluent pH in a Bentheimer sandstone core with a cation exchange capacity (CEC) of 2 meq/100g. Floods at frontal velocities of 100, 10, and 0.33 ft/D were performed with 0.3 pore volume slugs of 0.7% Na₂CO₃ at 86° C. The effluent was analyzed for ions and pH breakthrough. It was found that the pH breakthrough occurred before surfactant breakthrough would be expected as desired although the pH was lower at a frontal velocity of 0.33 ft/D than at the higher velocities. The Na₂CO₃ consumption was 0.244, 0.238, and 0.207 meq/100 g rock at velocities of 100, 10, and 0.33 ft/D, respectively. In addition, a no-alkaline formulation consisting of a new large hydrophobe ether carboxylate surfactant mixed with an internal olefin sulfonate was tested on an active oil and it successfully recovered 99% of the waterflood remaining oil from an Ottawa sand pack with no salinity gradient and no alkali. The final residual oil saturation after the chemical flood (S[subscript orc]) was only 0.005<br>text

The large volume of water produced during the extraction of oil presents a significant problem due to the high cost of disposal in an environmentally friendly manner. On average, an estimated seven barrels of water is produced per barrel of oil in the US alone and the associated treatment and disposal cost is an estimated $5-10 billion. Besides making oil-water separation more complex, produced water also causes problems such as corrosion in the wellbore, decline in production rate and ultimate recovery of hydrocarbons and premature well or field abandonment. Water production can be more problematic during waterflooding in a highly heterogeneous reservoir with vertical communication between layers leading to unevenness in the flood front, cross-flow between high and low permeability layers and early water breakthrough from high permeability layers. Some of the different technologies that can be used to counteract this involve reducing the mobility of water or using a permeability block in the higher permeability, swept zones. This research was initiated to evaluate the potential effectiveness of the latter method, known as deep diverting gels (DDG) to plug thief zones deep within the reservoir and far from the injection well. To evaluate the performance of DDG, its injection was modeled, sensitivities run for a range of reservoir characteristics and conditions and an economic analysis was also performed. The performance of the DDG was then compared to other recovery methods, specifically waterflooding and polymer flooding from a technical and economic perspective. A literature review was performed on the background of injection profile control methods, their respective designs and technical capabilities. For the methods selected, Schlumberger's Eclipse software was used to simulate their behavior in a reservoir using realistic and simplified assumptions of reservoir characteristics and fluid properties. The simulation results obtained were then used to carry out economic analyses upon which conclusions and recommendations are based. These results show that the factor with the largest impact on the economic success of this method versus a polymer flood was the amount of incremental oil produced. By comparing net present values of the different methods, it was found that the polymer flood was the most successful with the highest NPV for each configuration followed by DDG.

This study is to establish a binomial lattice method to apply real options theory to valuation and decision making in the petroleum exploration and production industry with a specific focus on the switching time from primary to water flooding oil recovery. First, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) historical oil price evolution in the past 25 years is studied and modeled with the geometric Brownian motion (GBM) and one-factor mean reversion price models to capture the oil price uncertainty. Second, to conduct real options evaluation, specific reservoir simulations are designed and oil production profile for primary and water flooding oil recovery for a synthetic onshore oil reservoir is generated using UTCHEM reservoir simulator. Third, a cash flow model from producing the oil reservoir is created with a concessionary fiscal system. Finally, the binomial lattice real options evaluation method is established to value the project with flexibility in the switching time from primary to water flooding oil recovery under uncertain oil prices. The research reaches seven conclusions: 1) for the GBM price model, the assumptions of constant drift rate and constant volatility do not hold for WTI historical oil price; 2) one-factor mean reversion price model is a better model to fit the historical WTI oil prices than the GBM model; 3) the evolution of historical WTI oil prices from January 2, 1986 to May 28, 2010 was according to three price regimes with different long run prices; 4) the established real options evaluation method can be used to identify the best time to switch from primary to water flooding oil recovery using stochastic oil prices; 5) with the mean reversion oil price model and the most updated cost data, the real options evaluation method finds that the water flooding switching time is earlier than the traditional net present value (NPV) optimizing method; 6) the real options evaluation results reveals that most of time water flooding should start when oil price is high, and should not start when oil price is low; and 7) water flooding switching time is sensitive to oil price model to be used and to the investment and operating costs.<br>text

Minimum miscibility pressure (MMP) is a key parameter in the design of gas flooding. There are experimental and computational methods to determine MMP. Computational methods are fast and convenient alternatives to otherwise slow and expensive experimental procedures. This research focuses on the computational aspects of MMP estimation. It investigates the shortcomings of the current computational models and offers ways to improve the robustness of MMP estimation. First, we develop a new mixing cell method of estimating MMP that, unlike previous "mixing cell" methods, uses a variable number of cells and is independent of gas-oil ratio, volume of the cells, excess oil volumes, and the amount of gas injected. The new method relies entirely on robust P-T flash calculations using any cubic equation-of-state (EOS). We show that mixing cell MMPs are comparable with those of other analytical and experimental methods, and that our mixing cell method finds all the key tie lines predicted by MOC; however, the method proved to be more robust and reliable than current analytical methods. Second, we identify a number of problems with analytical methods of MMP estimation, and demonstrate them using real oil characterization examples. We show that the current MOC results, which assume that shocks exist from one key tie line to the next may not be reliable and may lead to large errors in MMP estimation. In such cases, the key tie lines determined using the MOC method do not control miscibility, likely as a result of the onset of L₁-L₂-V behavior. We explain the problem with a simplified pseudo-ternary model and offer a procedure for determining when an error exists and for improving the results. Finally, we present a simple mathematical model for predicting the MMP of contaminated gas. Injection-gas compositions often vary during the life of a gasflood because of reinjection and mixing of fluids in situ. Determining the MMP by slim-tube or other methods for each possible variation in the gas-mixture composition is impractical. Our method gives an easy and accurate way to determine impure CO₂ MMPs for variable field solvent compositions on the basis of just a few MMPs. Alternatively, the approach could be used to estimate the enrichment level required to lower the MMP to a desired pressure.<br>text